Long time
We can last a LONG time here on the ol' Doc1 Homestead, but I wanted to address the tobacco issue that's been raised on this thread. I enjoy tobacco, but can do without it if need be. Done it before many times and expect to see tobacco scarcity in the future.
The important thing to remember is that tobacco is one of the best possible barter items. We store it for both personal use and barter.
In the aftermath of Katrina, the local daily paper did a story on the barter economy that immediately sprang up amongst the ruins. What do you think the most desirable items were? In no particular order they were:
* Cigarettes (tobacco)
* gasoline
* beer
You will notice that NONE of these things are essential for life, yet in the midst of chaos, they were the items most in demand!
Some of you will recall that we evacuated with two small diesel trucks and a full-sized diesel school bus that was loaded with preps. We never came close to being reduced to bartering for anything. Still, every prepper should understand that barter is likely to become very important and make arrangements for it.
Long before anyone is reduced to bartering for dry beans and rice, people are going to want "comfort" items like, beer, cigs, cosmetics and other items that some might consider to be trivialities. Understand that I'm neither endorsing or condemning these types of products, but am addressing reality. Certainly, most of the people who wanted a cold beer in the sweltering heat and devastation of hurricanes weren't alcoholics. They wanted something enjoyable, cold, familiar and, well, comforting. In the case of alcohol, which has obvious psychoactive and sedative properties, enough consumption will allow you to sleep better in uncomfortable and stressful situations (think heat, humidity and biting mosquitoes). Things like cosmetics are purely psychological comfort items.
I think it's important to keep a healthy stock of these potential barter items, both for your own use - if you indulge - and for trade purposes. I suspect that the trade value of even a carton of generic cigs, which currently might cost $20- $25, would easily go to $100, up to several hundred dollars in 2008-valued dollars! Things like instant coffee, sugar, sweeteners and other things we take for granted should similarly skyrocket. Additionally, you should think of the trader's advantages inherent in having these things. If you are dickering and trying to close a deal, you might be amazed how the ability to say something like, "OK, let me get you a cup of coffee (or a cold beer) and let's close this deal" can strengthen your position against other traders who cannot offer these things.
What shouldn't you barter? First on my list are firearms and ammo. Sure, in today's environment I might go to a gun show and buy, trade or sell a firearm without too much concern. In a collapsing society, the last thing I want to do is trade away something that might be later used against me! I won't barter my fuel, except under extreme circumstances. If the money goes, the fuel goes, but few people make this connection. I'm not too worried about fuel being used against me, but am aware that my stocks may become impossible to replenish. Guns and fuel? Maybe - and it's only a maybe - could be traded amongst close family and a friend or two, but not lightly!
There's lots more to think through, but long term viability in a collapsing society is going to take a lot more than beans and rice.
Best regards
Doc