ALERT World Hot Spots Oct 8 2008

NC Susan · Oct 8, 2008

HOT SPOTS

Snapshots of Today's Events
Wednesday, October 8 2008

www.asigroup.com/HOTSPOTS.asp

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IN TODAY'S ISSUE

AMERICAS
Argentina
Mexico
Peru

ASIA
Georgia
Nepal
Thailand

AUSTRALASIA
Australia

EUROPE
Greece
United Kingdom

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
Lebanon / Syria

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Maldives
Mauritania
Uganda
Zimbabwe

AMERICAS
Argentina (Country threat level -

): On 8 October 2008 farmers' organizations will mark the end of a five-day strike with a rally in San Pedro, located approximately 105 mi/170 km northwest of Buenos Aires. The rally is scheduled to begin at 1100 local time at the intersection of roads 9 and 191. The farmers also plan a symbolic march to the Congress building in Buenos Aires at approximately 1700 local time. Farming sector leaders staged a march past the Congress building on 7 October; no violence or disruptions were reported. Some traffic disruptions may occur during the 8 October rallies, but no disturbances are expected.

Mexico (Country threat level -

): Teachers from various states and Mexico City will march in the capital on 8 October 2008 to protest against the Alliance for Educational Quality (ACE), a plan to reform the educational system in Mexico. The march is scheduled to begin at the Independence Monument, located on Paseo de la Reforma and end at the Ministry of Education building, located near the Plaza de la Constitucion (Zocalo); no time has been announced for the start of the protest. The marchers have also stated that they intend to establish an open-ended presence on the following streets: Republica de Brasil, Republica de Argentina and Republica de Venezuela.

The teachers claim that the reform plan will hurt job security. Protests against the ACE escalated on 7 October in the central state of Morelos, where teachers blocked the major access points into the state, disrupting traffic to and from Mexico City, as well as between Morelos and the states of Mexico, Puebla, Guerrero and Oaxaca. Police officers used tear gas to disperse a group of teachers who were blocking the Mexico-Cuernavaca highway. At least five teachers were injured (one report put the number of injuries at 20), and officers detained seven others. Following the police action, local residents blocked a parallel roadway for seven hours.

ASI Comment: The 8 October march can be expected to at least cause transportation disruptions in central Mexico City. As the 7 October events in Morelos show, there is a risk of disturbances related to the march, especially since the union that organized the Morelos protest is scheduled to participate.

Peru (Country threat level -

): On 7 October 2008 protests broke out in cities across Peru, including Cusco, Lima, Arequipa, Chiclayo, Chimbote and Ayacucho. The demonstrations were in response to alleged government corruption and dissatisfaction with the country's economic policies.

Peru Rail service to Machu Picchu was canceled due to the large number of demonstrators gathered in Cusco's main plaza. In Lima, workers gathered at the Congress building and demanded that Cabinet members resign from office. Police officers used tear gas on another group of protesters in Lima after they began throwing rocks at the officers. Protesters in Arequipa broke car windows with sticks and rocks. It is not known at this time if the protests will continue.

ASIA
Georgia (Country threat level -

): Reports on 8 October 2008 indicate that Russian forces stationed in Georgia have completed their pullout from the security zone surrounding South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Georgian officials have confirmed the withdrawal, which comes ahead of a 10 October deadline. The withdrawal is part of the overall ceasefire brokered by France between the two sides in August. European Union monitors will replace Russian forces in the security zone, butRussian troops will remain stationed in the separatist regions.

Nepal (Country threat level -

): A small, propeller-driven passenger aircraft crashed at the Tenzing-Hillary Airport (VNLK/LUA) in the mountainous Everest region of Nepal on 8 October 2008. Aviation officials stated that the DeHavilland Twin Otter (DHC-6) aircraft was owned and operated by Yeti Airlines. Reports indicate that the flight was traveling from Kathmandu to Lukla in eastern Nepal and caught fire after it crash-landed at the airport. Authorities reported that at least 18 of the 19 passengers on board (mostly German citizens) were killed in the crash. Although the flight crash-landed on the main runway, it is not known if there were any disruptions at the airport.

Thailand (Country threat level -

): Thai officials announced that additional military troops and police officers are standing guard at key locations throughout Bangkok as a relative calm returned to the city on 8 October 2008. Street clashes occurred in Bangkok on 7 October as People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protesters staged several large demonstrations outside government buildings. Violence erupted when police officers and protesters clashed, resulting in police officers firing tear gas and protesters beating police officers with baseball bats and throwing miscellaneous objects at officials as they were advancing on the protesters to break up the demonstrations. Authorities stated that at least two people were killed and 400 injured in the violence but that police officers did not use any explosive devices. Eyewitnesses in the Thai capital stated that there have been no indications of renewed street clashes, although some PAD protesters remain camped out at the Government House, where supporters from other areas of Thailand joined them. Protest organizers told reporters that the PAD will continue anti-government protests until the government adopts significant electoral reforms.

In another development, Chulalongkorn hospital doctors have boycotted the treatment of all police officers and have urged other hospitals to do the same. The doctors stated that this was done to punish the police officials for using excessive force during the protests.

ASI Comment: Local sources have indicated that while the situation remains tense in Thailand, only areas surrounding government buildings and key landmarks are being affected by the renewal of protests thus far. Areas surrounding the expatriate compound have remained relatively unaffected. An end to the conflict appears unlikely unless the entire administration is dissolved in line with PAD demands. Given renewed calls for the resignation of Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, protests and violence can re-occur with little or no prior notice, although they have subsided for the moment. In addition, sources on the ground have stated that the general feeling from the population has moved toward growing sympathy for the protesters, whereas during the protests in late August and September 2008, the general consensus was one of annoyance with the PAD actions. This is likely to lead to further unrest, which will continue to negatively affect the Thai economy, including the tourist sector. Non-essential travel to the country should be avoided until the situation stabilizes. If traveling to Thailand, increased security precautions are necessary to avoid being inadvertently affected by the political situation.

AUSTRALASIA
Australia (Country threat level -

): Airline investigators in Australia announced on 8 October 2008 that they believe a computer malfunction may have caused a rapid loss in altitude on a Qantas passenger aircraft on 7 October. Officials at the Australian Transport Safety Board (ATSB) stated that the aircraft apparently pitched down and dropped 6,500 ft/2,000 m suddenly because of a glitch in the automatic elevator control system.

Qantas representatives told reporters that 20 passengers were seriously injured in the incident and continue to receive medical care. Although the exact nature of the computer failure has not been determined, ground crews have dismantled parts of the aircraft to inspect the electrical elevator controls. ATSB investigators stated that Qantas and Airbus, the manufacturer of the aircraft, are cooperating fully with the investigation, which is expected to last several months.

EUROPE
Greece (Country threat level -

): As previously announced in HOT SPOTS, a 24-hour general strike against government privatization plans is underway on 8 October 2008. The General Confederation of Greek Workers (GSEE), the country’s largest union, organized the strike, which reportedly was observed by approximately 100,000 workers. The action resulted in disruptions to media, medical, rail and aviation services. Olympic Airlines canceled approximately 100 domestic and international flights. Significant traffic disruptions were reported in Athens due to the shutdown of metro, state railway and city bus services. In addition, approximately 3,000 people staged a march around the Parliament building in Athens. Additional protests are planned, as well as a nationwide general strike on 21 October.

United Kingdom (Country threat level -

): Train signalers in Scotland launched a 24-hour strike at noon local time on 7 October 2008, resulting in hundreds of train services coming to a halt. At least 40 percent of First ScotRail services were canceled, largely in areas north of Perth. The Network Rail and the Rail, Maritime & Transport union (RMT) has announced plans for an additional 24-hour strike beginning at noon local time on 9 October unless its members' grievances, which are related to industry testing issues, are resolved. Negotiations are currently underway, but the results have yet to be announced.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
Lebanon (Country threat level -

) / Syria (Country threat level -

): Reports on 8 October 2008 indicate that an unknown number of Syrian soldiers have been deployed near the southwestern border with Lebanon. Eyewitnesses in Lebanon stated that several military encampments and vehicles could be seen just across the border in Syrian territory. Although there have been no indications that the Syrian soldiers are preparing for a cross border incursion, U.S. and Lebanese officials have warned that the new deployment could spark conflict. The Syrian government claims that the military operation near the border was ordered to combat smuggling from Lebanon. Military analysts in the region told reporters that the new deployment coupled with the car bombing last month in Damascus raises serious concerns of a potential border incursion by Syrian troops.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Maldives (Country threat level -

): The Maldives held its first multi-party presidential election on 8 October 2008; allegations of voter fraud have marred the proceedings, increasing the risk of protests. Reports indicate that election officials may extend voting due to the fact that some voter registration lists are not matching official records. Violent pro-democracy demonstrations occurred in 2004, which President Gayoom -- who is running in the current election -- forcefully put down.

Mauritania (Country threat level -

): Security forces clashed with anti-coup protesters in the capital, Nouakchott, on 7 October 2008, the second such incident since 5 October. Police used tear gas and beat union members who had gathered at a local market in the downtown area to protest the ruling military junta that took power in August 2008. At least two people were injured in the incident. Unions organized the protest despite a recent decree banning all protests and demonstrations in the country. Another anti-coup protest was held on 5 October and also resulted in clashes with police who attempted to break up the demonstration.

The military junta led by Gen. Mohammed Abdelaziz took power in a coup in August 2008, ousting the country's first democratically elected government and detaining President Sidi Abdallahi, who remains under house arrest. The junta has promised to hold free and transparent elections but no exact date has been set for the vote.

Uganda (Country threat level -

): According to reports on 7 October 2008, authorities have increased security in Kampala in response to a terror alert issued by security forces on 2 October. There is an increased security presence at government buildings and foreign embassies, as well as in public places, including at hotels, taxi stands, bus stations, shopping malls and markets. Reports indicate that the increased measures include body, luggage and vehicle searches. A hotline has also been set up for the public to report suspicious activity. The Ugandan police issued the alert on 2 October in response to threats of possible terrorist attacks by groups associated with al-Qaeda; authorities, however, did not specify the nature of threats that prompted the alert. The move comes two weeks after Kenyan authorities confiscated a laptop belonging to Fazul Abdul Mohammed, the suspected mastermind behind the 1998 U.S. Embassy bombings in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam.

Zimbabwe (Country threat level -

): Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) negotiators walked out of a meeting with President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party on 7 October 2008 after the two parties were unable to reach an agreement on the allocation of ministries. Although the ZANU-PF has reported that only two ministries -- home affairs and finance -- are still under discussion, the MDC claims that the assignment of all 31 ministries has yet to be decided upon. The MDC has stated that it will now wait for an international mediator to break the impasse, and former South African President Thabo Mbeki -- who mediated the initial power sharing agreement -- is expected to arrive in Harare in the coming days; the ZANU-PF, however, has insisted that international mediation is not needed. If the parties cannot reach a deal, the power sharing agreement will likely collapse; both MDC and ZANU-PF representatives have indicated that they would rather see the talks collapse than concede key ministries to the other party. The power sharing agreement was signed on 15 September after more than eight weeks of negotiations following the 27 June presidential election run-off, which took place in an environment of extreme violence and intimidation; the international community labeled the election a "sham."

SIGNIFICANT DATES
8 October

Argentina: Farming sector strike (Some ground transportation disruptions possible at various points throughout the country)
Haiti: Anniversary of the death of Henri Christophe
Hungary: Conference of NATO defense ministers in Budapest (traffic restrictions in place at Ferihegy International Airport and on road to and from the airport)
Peru: Battle of Angamos/Navy Day
Puerto Rico: Columbus Day (Government offices, banks close; most businesses, retail stores open.)
Central and South America: Columbus Day - Dia de la Raza (Observed on 12 October in the following countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Chile, Ecuador, Honduras, Mexico, Paraguay, Venezuela. Most other countries that observe this date do so on the second Monday of October.)

9 October

Hungary: Conference of NATO defense ministers in Budapest (traffic restrictions in place at Ferihegy International Airport and on road to and from the airport)
Cuba: Day of the Heroic Warrior and Fall of Ernesto Che Guevara
Ecuador: Independence of Guayaquil Day
India: Dassehra (Maha Saptami) (10-day festival)
Laos: Bouk Ok Pansa (Public holiday)
Uganda: Independence Day (Public holiday)
Judaism: Yom Kippur (Day of Atonement)

10 October

Hungary: Conference of NATO defense ministers in Budapest (traffic restrictions in place at Ferihegy International Airport and on road to and from the airport)
Armenia: 2,790th anniversary of the founding of Yerevan (various celebratory events planned)
Cuba: Beginning of Independence Wars in 1868 (Government offices, schools and most businesses close throughout the country.)
Kenya: Moi Day (Political rallies, public ceremonies and fly-pasts were common in the past, but the government announced in 2002 that future ceremonies would be more low key.)
Taiwan: National Day (Government offices and businesses close.)

12 October

Brazil: Nossa Senhora de Aparecida (Our Lady of Aparecida Day)
Costa Rica: Columbus Day
Equatorial Guinea: Independence Day (1968) (Public holiday. Businesses, schools and government offices close. Public ceremonies likely.)
Laos: Day of Liberation (Public holiday)
Spain: National Day (Hispanity Day) (Public holiday; government and business offices closed.)
Trinidad And Tobago: Arrival of the first Chinese immigrants (Public holiday)
United States: Anniversary of terrorist attack against USS Cole in Yemen (2000).

13 October

Burundi: Rwagasore Day (Public holiday. Government offices and businesses close.)
Canada: Thanksgiving Day
Japan: National Fitness Day (Bank holiday)
United States: Columbus Day (Government offices, banks close; most businesses, retail stores open.)
Uruguay: Día de la Raza

14 October

Bulgaria: Petkouden
Canada: General elections
Democratic Republic Of Congo: Founders Day / Youth Day
Georgia: Svetitskhovloba (Georgian Orthodox Festival. Public holiday; some shops may be closed.)
Judaism: Sukkot (Harvest)
Myanmar: Full Moon of Thadingyut (End of Buddhist Lent)
Ukraine: Anniversary of the founding of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (Violence possible, particularly in Kiev, as supporters stage an annual march that far-left activists typically attempt to disrupt.)

15 October

Judaism: Sukkot (Harvest)
Azerbaijan: Presidential election
Burkina Faso: Rectification Day (National holiday)

17 October

Judaism: Sukkot (Harvest)
Bolivia: Gas War Anniversary (Protest marches possible in El Alto, La Paz and Cochabamba)
Haiti: Dessalines Day. Anniversary of the death of Jean Jacques Dessalines (Public holiday. Government offices and businesses close.)

18 October

Judaism: Sukkot (Harvest)
Azerbaijan: Independence Day (Public holiday; public festivities organized)

ASI THREAT LEVEL DEFINITIONS

- A minimum threat of physical harm. Petty crime is the most common threat.

- A low threat of physical harm. Petty crime and infrequent demonstrations are the most common threats.

- A medium threat of physical harm. Petty crime and demonstrations are common and violent acts do occur.

- A high threat of physical harm due to violent acts associated with crime, demonstrations or terrorism.

- A very high threat of physical harm due to violent acts associated with crime, terrorism, demonstrations or war.

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Warthog · Oct 8, 2008

Notice how the Americas section leaves out the USA? This place is smoking hot! I don't see nothing but trouble coming.

ALERT World Hot Spots Oct 8 2008

NC Susan

Deceased

Warthog

Tusk Up