WEATHER T/S Marco Forms / Old T/D 13

000
WTNT33 KNHC 061741
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
100 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

...DEPRESSION CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM TUXPAN SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT
115 MILES...185 KM...EAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR
TO LANDFALL.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHER MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...NORTHERN OAXACA...AND TABASCO.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...19.2 N...94.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

000
WTNT43 KNHC 061446
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2008

HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...INDICATING
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT QUITE AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN A REGION OF
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH DEVELOPING OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY...SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE QUITE WARM.
ACCORDINGLY...SOME STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO THE
CYCLONE REACHING LAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ONCE INLAND OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF MEXICO...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
280/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE
SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH
LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 19.0N 94.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 19.4N 95.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 19.6N 96.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 19.7N 97.4W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

Models and Sat. Image... Image Updated: 7:10 PM GMT on October 06, 2008:

Tropical Storm Marco Forms......



Tropical Storm Marco Forms, Old T/D 13......

From the NHC...

.
Tropical Storm MARCO Public Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 062136
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARCO ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
400 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

CORRECTED DEPRESSION WORDING IN RAINFALL PARAGRAPH

...BAY OF CAMPECHE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO
SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO
PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW A
TROPICAL STORM.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

MARCO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND MARCO COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AS
IT NEARS THE COAST.

MARCO IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

MARCO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...NORTHERN OAXACA...AND TABASCO.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...19.5 N...94.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

000
WTNT43 KNHC 062048
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
500 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2008

A TIMELY MISSION FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS...
TASKED WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE...REVEALS THAT THE DEPRESSION
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A
TROPICAL STORM. PEAK SFMR WINDS WERE 53 KT AND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS WERE 61 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
ABOUT 55 KT. SINCE THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT ARE
SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. MARCO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...AND ACCORDINGLY A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND
CONTINUES...IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING LATER
THIS EVENING.

INITIAL MOTION...295/9...IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH CHANGE IN
HEADING OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS DUE TO A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF MARCO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.

WE THANK THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON FOR THEIR QUICK
RESPONSE TO OUR SHORT-NOTICE REQUEST TO INVESTIGATE THIS STORM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 19.5N 94.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 95.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 20.5N 97.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 21.0N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

Models.....

.

Storm-Centered Satellite Image
Image Updated: 11:28 PM GMT on October 06, 2008

.

He's a little bitty thing aint he?

The Traveler said:

He's a little bitty thing aint he?

Click to expand...

He he...yep...Marco the Mighty Mite..... Still, 65+ mph winds throgh.

Jarhead

Latest update, NHC

000
WTNT33 KNHC 070231
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARCO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1000 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

...MARCO MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM
CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...105 KM...NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 155 MILES...
245 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

MARCO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND MARCO COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE COAST.

MARCO REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ONLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

MARCO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MEXICAN STATES OF NORTHERN VERACRUZ...NORTHERN PUEBLA...
HILDALGO...AND SAN LUIS POTOSI.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...19.8 N...95.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT43 KNHC 070232
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2008

MINIATURE MARCO HAS MAINTAINED ONE SMALL COLD-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER...ABOUT THE SIZE OF THE STATE OF DELAWARE...OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING KEPT
AT 55 KT IN LINE WITH THE LAST AIR FORCE RECON DATA...EVEN THOUGH
DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB. I HAVE WORKED SOME TINY TYPHOONS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC
BEFORE...BUT HORIZONTALLY-CHALLENGED MARCO COULD BE THE SMALLEST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 295/06. MARCO HAS REMAINED ON THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK...SO THERE IS NO CHANGE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. MARCO IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND MAKE
LANDFALL IN 18 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

ALTHOUGH MARCO MAY BE SMALL IN STATURE...IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SMALL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
ONLY HAS A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 4 NMI. SMALL SYSTEMS
LIKE MARCO CAN SPIN UP QUICKLY...BUT THEY CAN ALSO SPIN DOWN JUST
AS FAST. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AND
SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 28C UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 18 HOURS.
THEREFORE...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. THE SHIPS MODEL
BRINGS MARCO UP TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 12 HOURS...AND UP TO 71
KT IN 18 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE TO AGGRESSIVE AT THIS STAGE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STRONGER HWRF AND
THE WEAKER GFDL...WHICH KEEPS MARCO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 19.8N 95.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 20.2N 96.4W 60 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 20.7N 97.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
36HR VT 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Modles....
.

Storm-Centered Satellite Image
Image Updated: 3:09 AM GMT on October 07, 2008

Elsewhere in the Tropics.....

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM MARCO LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 400
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM MARCO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON MARCO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

000
AXNT20 KNHC 062354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM MARCO IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 95.1W AT 07/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 70 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 6
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/
WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MARCO IS A RELATIVELY SMALL
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO ABOUT 30 NM FROM THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 40 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. A
SMALL MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN THE LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
FIELD OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WAVE IS MOVING BENEATH
STRONG NW WINDS ALOFT...AND THEREFORE NO SHOWERS OR DEEP
CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS
MOVING BENEATH AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OBSCURING ANY SIGNATURE AT LOWER LEVELS THEREFORE POSITION IS
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 67W-78W
AND LIKELY THE RESULT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N14W 6N20W 10N33W 9N38W 7N50W
9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND ACROSS W
AFRICA AND EXTENDS INTO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 10W-14W. SIMILAR AREA OF CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N
BETWEEN 20W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 47W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM MARCO IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED ALONG THE NWRN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COVERING
ALL OF THE GULF WATERS BRINGING MOIST TROPICAL AIR ACROSS MOST
OF THE GULF S OF A LINE FROM NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W TO S OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF NORTH OF ST. PETERSBURG
WEST TO NEAR 28N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...INCLUDING ADJACENT COASTAL GULF
WATERS AND A PORTION OF THE NE GULF FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN
85W-89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM
21N-24N BETWEEN 92W-96W DUE TO THE UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT IS ACROSS THE NW GULF
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATE
TUE AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS ANCHORED ALONG THE NWRN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
TO THE EAST IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED SW OF JAMAICA NEAR 14N82W
EXTENDING UPPER TROUGHING SW TO COSTA RICA AND WRN PANAMA. THE
CENTRAL AND SERN CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER NW VENEZUELA. BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND UPPER
RIDGE...AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN RESIDES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
INLAND ACROSS NRN VENEZUELA TO 17N BETWEEN 66W-78W. MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS NOTED ACROSS THE ERN GREATER
ANTILLES AND THE FAR NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING...BUT FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN ELSEWHERE N OF 17N AND E OF 72W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC EXTENDING
FROM A STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE REGION ALONG 32N70W TO NEAR
MELBOURNE FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE THE SE GULF DOMINATES THE W ATLC
W OF 65W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 26N-30N W OF 76W. A
LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR
21N61W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N57W TO 21N60W
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SW OVER THE NE
ATLC INTO THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH 32N12W SW TO 15N40W WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 14N20W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS...
THUS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS W
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 25W-30W.

$$
HUFFMAN

000
WTNT33 KNHC 070545
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARCO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
100 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

...VERY SMALL TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE COAST OF
MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM
CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES...215 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

MARCO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND MARCO
COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.

MARCO IS AN EXTREMELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ONLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

MARCO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MEXICAN STATES OF NORTHERN VERACRUZ...NORTHERN PUEBLA...
HILDALGO...AND SAN LUIS POTOSI.

REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...19.9 N...95.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Just FYI////

Mexico Eyes Storms Of Both Coasts

MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- Mexico had storms off both coasts late Monday night, with Hurricane Norbert forming off its western coast and Tropical Storm Marco menacing its eastern coast.

The more immediate problem is Marco.

The tropical storm churned near the eastern coast of Mexico late Monday and is expected to make landfall in the overnight hours, forecasters said.

A tropical depression that formed Monday afternoon in the Bay of Campeche strengthened hours later into Marco, the National Hurricane Center said.

A hurricane watch is in effect for the Gulf Coast of Mexico from Cabo Rojo southward to Veracruz. A tropical storm warning remains in effect from Cabo Rojo southward to Punta el Lagarto.

In anticipation of the storm, Mexico's state-owned oil company, Pemex, decided to evacuate 33 workers from four oil platforms at sea. It also closed six oil wells and took other steps to guard against possible damage, the company said.

Marco's maximum sustained winds were near 65 mph with higher gusts.

"Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours and Marco could approach hurricane strength as it nears the coast," forecasters said.

As of 11 p.m. ET, the center of Marco was located about 65 miles (105 km) northeast of Veracruz and about 155 miles (250 km) east-southeast of Tuxpan, forecasters said. It was moving west-northwest at near 7 mph and was expected to continue doing so over the next day.

"On the forecast track, the center will be near the coast of Mexico within the warning area early Tuesday," according to the hurricane center.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

Marco was relatively small, however, with tropical storm-force winds extending up to 30 miles (45 km) from its center.

The storm is expected to dump up to six inches of rain across the Mexican states of Veracruz, Puebla, Hildalgo and San Luis Potosi.

The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and ends on November 30.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Norbert formed off the western coast of Mexico late Monday, the National Hurricane Center reported.

The Category 1 storm, with its 75 mph winds, was centered about 315 miles (510 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and was tracking toward the west-northwest at about 8 mph.

Norbert is expected to continue this general motion over the next couple of days, before making a swing to the northeast, the five-day forecast map from the hurricane center shows.

The current forecast map shows Hurricane Norbert possibly making landfall along the southern Baja Peninsula on Saturday evening, but hurricane forecasts are unpredictable and can change considerably.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/10/06/mexico.storms/index.html


Jarhead


Norbert track.......

000
WTNT33 KNHC 070850
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARCO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
400 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

...MARCO NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO...SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL LATER
TODAY...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF VERACRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM CABO ROJO
SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...170 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

MARCO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARCO SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND MARCO
COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.

MARCO IS AN EXTREMELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ONLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

MARCO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICAN STATES OF NORTHERN VERACRUZ...NORTHERN
PUEBLA... HILDALGO...AND SAN LUIS POTOSI.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...20.1 N...96.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2008

WITH NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...
THE INTENSITY OF MARCO IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE. THE OVERALL
SATELLITE PRESENTATION LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS WHEN THE AIRCRAFT
WAS THERE LAST...SO I'LL LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 55 KT.
THE CYCLONE HAS PROBABLY ANOTHER 6-9 HOURS OVER WATER...SO SOME
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN CALLING
FOR MARCO TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. AS WE HAVE
NOTED PREVIOUSLY...HOWEVER...SMALL CYCLONES ARE PARTICULARLY
SUBJECT TO LARGE AND MOSTLY UNPREDICTABLE CHANGES IN INTENSITY.
EXAMINATION OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 0100 UTC
SUGGESTS THAT THE RADIAL EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS
EXCEEDINGLY SMALL...PERHAPS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 NMI.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/7. A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SEPARATES MARCO FROM A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MARCO ON
BASICALLY THE SAME TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH I WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF THE TRACK BENDS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...WHICH WOULD
KEEP MARCO OVER WATER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE UKMET AND BAM GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 20.1N 96.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 20.5N 97.1W 60 KT...JUST INLAND
24HR VT 08/0600Z 20.9N 98.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

NNNN

Modles...

Storm-Centered Satellite Image
Image Updated: 8:49 AM GMT on October 07, 2008

000
WTNT33 KNHC 080237
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARCO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

...MARCO DISSIPATING OVER MEXICO...

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MARCO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
97.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...110 KM...SOUTH OF TUXPAN MEXICO AND
ABOUT 100 MILES...165 KM ...WEST-NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...AND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND FARTHER INLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...35 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MARCO SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO
OVERNIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

THE REMNANTS OF MARCO COULD PRODUCE LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...20.0 N...97.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Elsewhere in the Tropics.... Nada!

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MARCO LOCATED OVER MEXICO ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF TUXPAN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

NNNN