FOOD If a real food crisis did occur (famine, for example), how might it unfold?

Rucus Sunday

Veteran Member
This got me thinking about food issues in a different light, not just general shortages, spot shortages, high prices, distribution problems, etc, but the ultimate food crisis: famine.

If (let's just say theoretically) a famine were to occur, how might it occur? What are some possible scenarios that could realistically cause a famine, how long might it take for the crisis to unfold, and what could be some "trigger events" that would cause the average DGI to begin to panic?

It's not like we'd go to bed on Monday with cupboards and grocery stores full of food, and wake up to a famine on Tuesday. So how would it happen and how long would it take for TS to HTF?
 

Wowser

Inactive
November 7, 2007

The Last Harvest?


by Tim Case

"There are many things the government can’t do, many good purposes it must renounce. It must leave them to the enterprise of others. It cannot feed the people. It cannot enrich the people. It cannot teach the people. It cannot convert the people."

~ Lord Acton (1834–1902)

In the west, as a general rule, the harvest is in. Millions of tons of cereal grains, carrots, beans, peas, corn, beets, sugar beets, squash, fruits, nuts along with various other produce have been delivered to the granaries, processing plants, and packing plants.

Those of us that are lucky to be associated with agriculture have seen sunrises which dazzled the eyes, worked under a sun whose heat was unrelenting and unforgiving, enjoyed sunsets which left us speechless, and continued to work under a moon so bright that artificial lights were rendered useless.

We have spent hundreds of man-hours pulling semi-trucks, loaded to over 100,000 pounds, from wet fields, out of unseen depressions or down rain-soaked mud roads. Even more man-hours have been spent up to our elbows in hydraulic fluid trying to find that small hole in the lines or replacing pumps, fittings, and couplings which failed. Then there were the hours being covered in grease, from head to toe, working to replace that broken 20-dollar part – you know the part that NEVER fails but just did – which rendered a half million dollars worth of machinery unusable; all the while wondering about the sanity of the engineer who designed the system and why anyone in their right mind would place that little part in such an inaccessible place!

Along the way we have seen the ducks and geese begin their migrations and watched as they started to return, landing once again in harvested fields to glean what was dropped or left behind. Some have had the long hours rewarded with the sighting of herds of elk, deer in abundance, cougars, bear, coyote, mountain sheep, mountain goats and the occasional wolf.

Although the hours have been long and work continued for weeks without a day off, there have been moments of unbridled humor and times of heart-rending sorrow. After cautiously passing a lady who had retrieved her errant mule and was slowly taking the animal home tied to the mirror of her pickup, one trucker was heard to quip: "Well that is one way to get your ass down the road!"

Others who were new to the agriculture industry have learned: that a truck driver never forgets to turn off his turn signal, he is just moving electrons from one side of the truck to the other to balance the truck and load; "back hauling a load of motorcycle doors" only denotes that the truck and trailers are returning to the fields empty; a late night rendezvous with the back of a combine to "water the tire" has nothing to do with adding water to the tires; and when "on the scales with thousands and thousands of little orange things that follow you everywhere you go" suggests only that you are on the scales with 30-plus tons of carrots.

Through it all the ledger sheet has never been far from anyone’s thoughts. We have watched as the cost of diesel has steadily risen from $2.89 to $3.71 during the season, a staggering increase of 78%. This price increase added to the ineptness of state road construction techniques causing pass closures; the foolish policies that emanate from BLM and the maudlin sentiments of the Federal landlord which enervate our forests forcing road closures as forest fires ran out of control; then just the quirks of nature have increased by thousands of miles the distance trucks had to cover to deliver the product, adding thousands of dollars to the cost of the harvest and eventually to the price the consumer will pay to eat.

What is most disturbing is the continuing mantra that there are worldwide shortages in crude oil which are driving the price of oil towards uncharted territory when the real culprit is the flood of money the Fed continues to pour into a failing economy. An act which in and of itself is malum in se and will result in our loss of buying power due to hyperinflation.

As the American economy approaches the abyss of hyperinflation it is strangely reminiscent of the economy in ancient Rome as it spun out of control. The results of all criminal economic policies are purely predictable but they are generally ignored.

Rome, like the US, was in decline so it began a process of devaluing the denarius. In a short period of time the once pure silver coin became a mixture of silver and copper. With this came the rising prices due to inflation while wages started to stagnate and the privileges of freedom and what it meant to be a citizen of Rome continued to evaporate.

Emperor Trajan had already instituted a program called alimenta to try and save the Roman economy. Alimenta used public funds to subsidize education along with food for Rome’s needy. It was funded by wealthy landowners who pledged portions of their estates as collateral for government loans. The interest these landowners paid to Rome on their loans funded the alimenta.

As emperors came and went the empire continued its free fall and by 284 AD the denarius was solid copper, the gladiatorial games were being offered for more than 150 days out of the year, and food had become a "right," supplied by the state, for the Roman citizenry.

Nothing any emperor tried would save the Roman economy; the die was cast and the Roman Empire was doomed.

However, this is not the end of the story. As the empire continued its decline the common people went about their daily routines. The crops were planted and then harvested, business were started and then failed.

Families strived to pay their rents or mortgage, clothe and educate their children, pay their bills, and put food on the table. With few exceptions the desires and daily routines of the Roman people were pretty much the same as we experience today. No, they didn’t have "modern" means of travel, or harvesting crops that we employ, but they did enjoy the gifts that nature offered and they too experienced the hum-drum of their daily routines.

They too laughed, cried, and labored to keep machinery working. They also looked at creation with wonder and joy.

That is until the day came when the common Roman could no longer afford a daily meal.

You see the crops have been harvested this year but the real questions remain. How long will the American public be able to buy the food they have come to expect and need? How long will they accept the criminal actions of those few which doom their futures, life styles and literally take the food out of mouths of their children? Most importantly was this the last harvest that will feed a once great nation?

November 7, 2007


Tim Case [send him mail] is a 30-year student of the ancient histories who agrees with the first-century stoic Epictetus on this one point: “Only the educated are free.”

Copyright © 2007 LewRockwell.com

Tim Case Archives


Links referenced within this article

Tim Case
http://www.lewrockwell.com/case/mailto:historyworm_npu@earthlink.net
DIGG THIS
http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url=http://www.lewrockwell.com/case/case20.html&title=The Last Harvest?&topic=political_opinion
mantra that there are worldwide shortages in crude oil
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119422053486281942.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
money the Fed continues to pour into a failing economy
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm
send him mail
http://www.lewrockwell.com/case/mailto:historyworm_npu@earthlink.net
Tim Case Archives
http://www.lewrockwell.com/case/case-arch.html


Find this article at:
http://www.lewrockwell.com/case/case20.html
 

BigFootsCousin

Molon Labe!
Nuclear dust contaminating fields would bring famine to any survivors......

Plant virus's could decimate crops in one season....

Extreme weather patterns would definately produce shortages....

And then there's just "War". Too busy fighting/defending to worry about planting and harvesting crops.

Oh, one more that I thought of: transportaion of food could become cost prohibitive due to oil/fuel shortages or rail/highway disruptions.

What did I miss?

BFC
 

Jonas Parker

Hooligan
We have watched as the cost of diesel has steadily risen from $2.89 to $3.71 during the season, a staggering increase of 78%.

The author needs to go back to 5th grade math. A price rise from $2.89 to $3.71 is a not-so staggering increase of 28%... Ah, the US public school system at its best...
 

TIK

Inactive
It will truly start when the fast food restaurants fail...and then the portions get smaller and smaller at Claim Jumper and Red Lobster and Red Robins and TGIF's...and then the frozen Marie Callendar dinners start to not be restocked...and and and....
 

Rucus Sunday

Veteran Member
What did I miss?
Honeybee die-off?

It's clear that events not directly related to food can affect food availability just as much as weather or plant diseases. War, for instance, or nuclear contamination could create an instant famine. Lots of other things might not have an immediate effect, so the results would be seen/felt over time.
 

tanstaafl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I just finished reading "Life As We Knew It" (Susan Beth Pfeffer, c. 2008) about a global catastrophe after the Moon moved closer to the Earth. It's a "young adult" book, but doomer fiction generally always has something worth reading it for. My biggest problem with the book (and how my post relates to this thread) was the unrealistic depiction of slow starvation, which led me to do a bit of Internet research on the subject, which in turn coincided with the thread about impending famine in Zimbabwe where TB2Kers roundly lambasted starving people for not rising up and overthrowing Mugabe's government.

I encourage people to read about the mechanics of starvation. It's disturbing reading. Hopefully no one on the forum has or is or will ever experience actual starvation (as opposed to fasting or missing a few days worth of meals or not quite eating enough for a few weeks). Everything I've read says that starving people do NOT suddenly find inner reserves of strength to do much of ANYTHING strenuous. At some point people don't even care enough to crawl a few feet to food, and in any case after awhile the body physically can't process even a modest meal.

Years and years ago, back when Somalia's famine was in the news, the Washington Post had an article describing in great detail just what happens when humans starve. The article also made the point, which I've never seen since, that Somali adults were arriving at aid stations minus any children. It turns out (at least at that time) that in Somali culture adults eat first and the children dig into whatever's left. In the famines, the adults ate everything and the kids died. Of the kids who DIDN'T die, many of their brains would never develop properly, dooming the next generation to a longer-term crisis (which may help explain what's going on in Somalia today).

Anyway, I think it's worth understanding what's truly at stake when tossing out the words "famine" and "starvation."
 

twobarkingdogs

Veteran Member
It's not like we'd go to bed on Monday with cupboards and grocery stores full of food, and wake up to a famine on Tuesday. So how would it happen and how long would it take for TS to HTF?

While not necessary a famine you very easily could go to bed monday night with full grocery store shelves and wake up on tuesday morning with the stores shelves empty. An event happening overnight which causes the well informed more prep oriented people to make a last minute run could clean out any store which is opened.

I know that if I woke up in the morning an say that we have invaded Iran the very next thing I'm going to do is to head down to the gas station to fill up the spare gas cans and diesel storage tanks. Then I'll hit the grocery stores on the way home. Multiply me by who knows how many hundreds then you can't expect whats at the stores to last very long.

Then if the trucks are still running the store gets restocked overnight and the next day it gets stripped again. But this time it will be by a larger group and the sheep will start thinking that laying in a supply might make sense. At somepoint later if things get bad enough the government will have to step in and place controls on what you can buy and how much.

So while the above isn't a famine in the classic sense it still end up with you going to bed hungry at nite.

Got preps
 

Amazed

Does too have a life!
I just came from the grocery store and it was buzzing with people, including me, as to what was going on. At the deli, person after person would order a pound of something only to have the clerk say, we're out of that. OK, then I'll have this. Sorry, that's gone too. I think their shipment was just late in arriving but it gave me a sinking feeling. The same scenario in the ice cream section as well as produce.

Is this how it starts? We are so used to getting whatever we want, it's hard to imagine a day coming where you can't get food for any price. :shr:
 

American Rage

Inactive
It'll happen due to international law. Foreigners will buy up our farms and ship all the food overseas. Our gov't will say, sorry, but they own the land and all that is upon it.

My 2 cents.

Rage
 
"...how long would it take for TS to HTF?..."


'bout two weeks (or less) for the empty-cupboard, eat-out crowd...then it's Mad Max/Omega Man/etc. time...

How 'bout a nice plate of boiled dog? ("Blade Runner")
 

Cardinal

Chickministrator
_______________
It'll happen due to international law. Foreigners will buy up our farms and ship all the food overseas. Our gov't will say, sorry, but they own the land and all that is upon it.

My 2 cents.

Rage

They did that in Ireland (the English did it to the Irish). Granted the potato harvest failed, but they busily shipped all the grains, dairy and veges to England leaving the Irish to starve or emigrate.
 

Jean B

Inactive
Another little 'buzz' to throw in the mix is the bee population of lack there of. Wheat, grapes and olives don't need the bee to pollnate. Interesting that the Bible says in Revelation 6 that wheat will be super high and spare not the oil(olive) and wine(grape).
 

Hermit

Inactive
I see peak oil driven fuel price increases, which increases the price of transportation and agrichemicals. Local and organic and home gardens will fill some of the void for a while, but there's only so much they can do.

At some point a crisis such as a terrorist nuking or massive earthquake in the crop growing regions of California or New Madrid will be the last straw for an already ailing system.
I encourage people to read about the mechanics of starvation. It's disturbing reading. Hopefully no one on the forum has or is or will ever experience actual starvation (as opposed to fasting or missing a few days worth of meals or not quite eating enough for a few weeks). Everything I've read says that starving people do NOT suddenly find inner reserves of strength to do much of ANYTHING strenuous. At some point people don't even care enough to crawl a few feet to food, and in any case after awhile the body physically can't process even a modest meal.
Yes, but most of us have about a month of grace before true starvation sets in.

Fasters know that the progression is something like this: there is great hunger and stomach growling for the first 2-3 days when available reserves in the digestive system and liver are being used, then suddenly you'll wake up one morning feeling good and with little hunger.

That lasts for up to a month, during which time you may actually feel better and more clear-headed than usual, although you might be a little light-headed with exertion or standing up quickly. You're using your fat reserves during this time.

When your fat reserves are gone, you start experiencing true hunger and begin to cannibalize your muscle tissue to convert protein into energy.

Once most of that is gone, your body starts using the protein from internal organs, and that's the last stage.
 

Safecastle

Emergency Essentials Store
Rucus--thank you for sharing that link to the blog entry about Kay Arthur's warning.

It seems important to try define "famine."

I did a quick search and found some amount of disagreement over how to define it. In fact, this 2005 article covers it pretty well:

http://www.alertnet.org/thefacts/reliefresources/112687129715.htm

[snip]

So what are some definitions of famine?


  • According to M�decins Sans Fronti�res, famine is a situation where more than five people in 10,000 are dying every day.
  • USAID says a famine is a �catastrophic food crisis that results in widespread acute malnutrition and mass mortality. It is a process, rather than an event, with a beginning, a middle and an end.�
  • The World Food Programme says a famine occurs when a serious food crisis is made worse by �governments' failure to deal with the situation�. In most of the 80 countries where WFP operates, people are on the brink of a food crisis.
  • Nigerien President Mamadou Tandja put it this way in an interview in August with the BBC: �There are three signs of a famine: when people are leaving the countryside and going to live in shantytowns; people are leaving the country; and there are beggars all over the place. Those three things do not exist in Niger at the present time.�
  • Devereux and Howe suggest this definition: �Famine is where the number of people dying is between 2-4 people per 10,000 population per day, and/or wasting is between 20-40 percent (that is the proportion of children aged between six months and five years old who are less than 80 percent of the average weight-for-height). Coping strategies are exhausted and people adopt survival strategies. Markets begin to close or collapse.�
 

cjoi

Veteran Member
Nuclear dust contaminating fields would bring famine to any survivors......

Plant virus's could decimate crops in one season....
Extreme weather patterns would definitely produce shortages....

And then there's just "War". Too busy fighting/defending to worry about planting and harvesting crops.

Oh, one more that I thought of: transportaion of food could become cost prohibitive due to oil/fuel shortages or rail/highway disruptions.

What did I miss?

BFC

You got it just about right BFC-
Extreme weather patterns ARE definitely producing shortages....
 
You got it just about right BFC-
Extreme weather patterns ARE definitely producing shortages....

And if those 'extreme weather patterns' are orchestrated by our enemies?

As for the OP, I think you're seeing the opening stages right now. I imagine food will continue to rise until it is unaffordable to the middle class (the lower classes will have government cheese). One or two bad harvests, natural or unnatural, and we will be in famine.
 

Troke

Deceased
We will get hunger in this country the first time we get a sheeple stampede to the grocery stores. And what might cause that?

Why, just having a leading politician tell the 'truth', that there is only 3 days food in the food chain and you had better get yours while there is still time.

That'd do it. And the resultant riots would prevent the food system from operating for only God knows how long, which would just naturally make things worse.
 

Loon

Inactive
I think the media scare tactics would cause a stampede faster than anything to empty store shelves. Since we don't know if or when a crisis will occur just keep quietly stockpiling staples for your food storage. I like to stock canned salmon and tuna for protein and have lots of spices and olive oil and other condiments to make anything taste better.

We can't prevent the food crisis. All we can do is be prepared so we can sit back and watch and not be part of the feeding frenzy.
 

Jean B

Inactive
Rucus, went to the "this" link and copied it. A friend of mine went to that and came home like...:shkr: So unexpected. Perry Stone has the same message.
 

Rucus Sunday

Veteran Member
Rucus, went to the "this" link and copied it. A friend of mine went to that and came home like... So unexpected.
Yes, not real familiar with Kay Arthur but have heard her name around for years. DW is more familiar with her and says she's not the "prophetic" type. I think she's a Baptist. The Lord always sends signals before He moves in either judgment or blessing, and uses whatever vessels He chooses to do so.
 

Hansa44

Justine Case
The author needs to go back to 5th grade math. A price rise from $2.89 to $3.71 is a not-so staggering increase of 28%... Ah, the US public school system at its best...


Uuuummmm, I think he was closer to the percentage than you think if you use today's prices. What's diesel today. $5.50? He may have been prophesying and didn't know it.
 
Top