WEATHER Bertha's Forcast Eye Path

Cascadians

Leska Emerald Adams
At least these give the eastern part of the country some rain.

We need storms across the ocean that are so powerful and moisture-laden the Death Lines cannot obliterate the whole thing. Praying for Pacific typhoons.
 

NoPlugsNM

Deceased
A whole week to prepare is a good thing, the rain is MUCH needed in that region as it has been having drought conditions.

I cannot remember the years, but when I lived in PA (1976-2001) we had a couple hurricanes that roared into the east coast approximately where this one may, terrible flooding happened quite a ways inland. So let's hope Bertha calms down, is downgraded and looses her punch, just is more of a rain event.

NP
 

Mushroom

Opinionated Granny
At least these give the eastern part of the country some rain.

We need storms across the ocean that are so powerful and moisture-laden the Death Lines cannot obliterate the whole thing. Praying for Pacific typhoons.


WTF are Death Lines? And what are you expecting them to obliterate? Please be a little less obtuse. Thanks

Mushroom
 

CelticRose

Inactive
Rough projection, it's way too early to accurately predict where she's heading or what she's going to do.

My thoughts exactly. .............. Still plenty of time for the trac to bear more westerly and make landfall along the eastern coast of Florida or pull up more and take aim further up the eastern seaboard ..........

Let's see what Bertha does over the next 24 to 36 hours ......

Rain is much needed in many areas from Florida up the coast, but with gas prices and everything else as shakey as they are, we don't need any 'canes in the gulf or any major 'canes making landfall on the US ........

This said by a woman who's checked the genie, has a list of motels that take pets and has the 'cane gear ready to go in case a nasty one looks like it'll head our way ....... LOL Living in the land of the demi-dead, I don't plan to ever wait till they officially order evacuaction only to be stuck behind some ancient, befuddled, dodgy driver who's unfit to drive under the best of conditions ........... :whistle:
 

Cascadians

Leska Emerald Adams
I've been posting about Death Lines since 1998. They are easy to see, every day and night plastered against and across and criss-crossed over any hint of moisture in the Pacific NW. Airplanes (not passenger planes) spray a combination of somethings over any front or clouds and kill the moisture. The Death Lines billow out and desiccate the rain into nothingness. You can watch it in real-time in the sky overhead and especially on real-time satellite photos. The planes will actually outline an approaching front and then heavily spray it until a few hours later it is a moth-eaten faded wisp and then nothing. You can see the progression of the process clearly.

We are in a terrible drought in Oregon because of this. I look at the satellite photos all day from Hawaii up over the Pacific and Pacific NW and am horrified at what is happening. Wholescale murder.
 

Seabird

Veteran Member
Issued at: 10:52 AM AST 7/5/08 (gateway).


Bertha moving quickly westward over the tropical atlantic,

At 1100 am ast, 1500z, the center of tropical storm bertha was located near latitude 16.6 north, longitude 37.3 west or about 885 miles, 1420 km, west of the cape verde islands and about 1705 miles, 2740 km, east of the northern leeward islands.

Bertha is moving toward the west near 21 mph, 33 km/hr, and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Bertha will be about half way between the west coast of africa and the lesser antilles by tonight or early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, 85 km/hr, with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but gradual strengthening is possible on Sunday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles, 140 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb, 29.53 inches.

Repeating the 1100 am ast position, 16.6 n, 37.3 w. Movement toward, west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 50 mph. Minimum central pressure, 1000 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 500 pm ast.
 

Hiding Bear

Inactive
Umm, isn't Bertha just a tropical storm? Who is forecasting that it will become a hurricane?

000
WTNT42 KNHC 051452
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008

WHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS BERTHA
STRUGGLED A LITTLE BIT...HOWEVER NOW THAT IT IS HEADING FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS BERTHA APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION
JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN BETWEEN 35-45 KT AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING AS SSTS ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE NEW
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT NOW
PREDICTS BERTHA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE AMOUNT OF PREDICTED
SHEAR...THE INTENSITY IS HELD A LITTLE BELOW THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND
GFDL MODELS WHICH SHOW ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION.

BERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 6-12
HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/18. A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE BETWEEN 50W-60W IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD KEEP BERTHA ON A GENERAL
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING AT A RATHER BRISK PACE. THERE
REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREADS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODEL TRACKS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD...EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET WHICH KEEPS A WEAKER TROPICAL
CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTED VERY CLOSE TO
THE NHC TRACK...SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED FROM THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 16.6N 37.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 17.0N 40.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 17.6N 43.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 18.4N 47.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 19.1N 51.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 20.8N 57.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 62.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/nhc.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic&story=Tropical_Storm_BERTHA_Forecast_Discussion_Number_10
 

Hfcomms

EN66iq
Umm, isn't Bertha just a tropical storm? Who is forecasting that it will become a hurricane?

How bout the National Hurricane Center??

145015W_sm.gif
 

Hfcomms

EN66iq
They certainly can use the rains in spots up and down the east coast but with the current gas situation can you imagine what this will do?? No, you won't have to imagine. Wait til the markets open on Monday and the realization of an early season storm hits.
 

Dozdoats

Deceased
Yep, we could use the rain. Our new pond is down about 5 feet since spring and the catfish are getting nervous.

dd
 

tanstaafl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Thanks! Last I heard (yesterday, I think) Bertha was "just" a tropical storm and wasn't really expected to become a hurricane or strike the US. Sounds like I wasn't paying enough attention!
 

LeafyForest

Veteran Member
Oh, great - we are planning to arrive in Orlando on Monday!! Hope it goes above that. Guess it is a wait and see?? :confused:
 

Hansa44

Justine Case
eastern nc could use the rain to put out that stupid fire up by little washington.


You're joking. Right? You are saying there is one fire they can't put out?

I guess living in Oregon puts a whole new perspective on my thinking. There were hundreds of fires started due to lightning strikes lately and all were put out. Usually there are major fires every year and they get put under control quickly. Most of them that is.

How big is your fire?
 

big_sarge

Inactive
Ummmm

Slight thread drift here....

But we don't really need the rain. Here in the Mid-Atlantic region we have had one of the wettest late spring/early summer's on record.
 

Amazed

Does too have a life!
We don't need the rain here in southern NH. We've had rain practically everyday here for too long. The weeds love it. :shk:
 

buff

Deceased
You're joking. Right? You are saying there is one fire they can't put out?

I guess living in Oregon puts a whole new perspective on my thinking. There were hundreds of fires started due to lightning strikes lately and all were put out. Usually there are major fires every year and they get put under control quickly. Most of them that is.

How big is your fire?
Today 02:12 PM

the problem is it is a wild area and they have no way to really get to it.


COLUMBIA, N.C. --
Smoke from a large wildfire in eastern North Carolina will make for a hazy Fourth of July in some communities.

The wildfire has burned about 41,000 acres in and around the Pocosin Lakes National Wildlife Refuge.

Officials said Friday the fire will continue to spew smoke through the weekend, creating unhealthy air in places around Elizabeth City. Some unhealthy air could spread as far as Kill Devil Hills.

The state Division of Air Quality encourages people to limit prolonged outdoors activity. People who are sensitive to air pollution should avoid all physical activity outdoors in areas most affected by the smoke.

The wildfire has been burning for more than a month. Although mostly contained, firefighters say it could burn for much longer in the organic matter of the refuge.

---
 

FlyLadyFan

Inactive
Slight thread drift here....

But we don't really need the rain. Here in the Mid-Atlantic region we have had one of the wettest late spring/early summer's on record.

Agreed. A couple inches would be fine, but if it drops 10+ we're in trouble (as anyone would be I guess). Really just need it North Carolina and south.

However, I'm certain it will hit my area since I planted my first veggie garden this year and it will have to be wiped out.

FLF

.
 

karnaaj

Membership Revoked
Prepare to take a 'Punch' This is gonna hurt...:ld:

Predicting the landfall of a hurricane 7 days out is pure foolishness. On top of that trying to predict its strength that far out is also utter foolishness. What a waste of bandwidth.

You going to be available for all the "I told you so's" next week when you look like an idiot? Don't go away mad just go away.
 

fairbanksb

Freedom Isn't Free
Predicting the landfall of a hurricane 7 days out is pure foolishness. On top of that trying to predict its strength that far out is also utter foolishness. What a waste of bandwidth.

You going to be available for all the "I told you so's" next week when you look like an idiot? Don't go away mad just go away.

If you don't want to see storm info posted here you may be on the wrong board. The season is just getting started and before too long there will probably be many more postings.:shr:
 

brandyh29

Inactive
Predicting the landfall of a hurricane 7 days out is pure foolishness. On top of that trying to predict its strength that far out is also utter foolishness. What a waste of bandwidth.

You going to be available for all the "I told you so's" next week when you look like an idiot? Don't go away mad just go away.

Geez that was rude. People who live on the east coast start watching these storms pretty far out. I know I do. I live in N. GA but some 'canes do come in my area every now & then.

I appreciate the info.
:)
 

Seabird

Veteran Member
Issued at: 4:34 PM AST 7/5/08 (gateway).


Bertha racing westward across the tropical atlantic,

At 500 pm ast, 2100z, the center of tropical storm bertha was located near latitude 16.7 north, longitude 39.3 west or about 1015 miles, 1635 km, west of the cape verde islands and about 1570 miles, 2530 km, east of the northern leeward islands.

Bertha is moving toward the west near 21 mph, 33 km/hr, and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On this track bertha will remain over the tropical atlantic waters for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, 85 km/hr, with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or two.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles, 140 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb, 29.53 inches.

Repeating the 500 pm ast position, 16.7 n, 39.3 w. Movement toward, west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 50 mph. Minimum central pressure, 1000 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 1100 pm ast.
 

Ranger Rainier

Inactive
Predicting the landfall of a hurricane 7 days out is pure foolishness. On top of that trying to predict its strength that far out is also utter foolishness. What a waste of bandwidth.

You going to be available for all the "I told you so's" next week when you look like an idiot? Don't go away mad just go away.

Karnaaj; I know a nice place you can go for a swim..........They say it is very calm......:smkd:
 

karnaaj

Membership Revoked
If you don't want to see storm info posted here you may be on the wrong board. The season is just getting started and before too long there will probably be many more postings.:shr:


It's the prediction of doom and gloom that get me. Someone wants to post a link to current weather patterns that's great. Just don't make predictions or use that stupid:ld: icon.
 

mbabulldog

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Predicting the landfall of a hurricane 7 days out is pure foolishness. On top of that trying to predict its strength that far out is also utter foolishness. What a waste of bandwidth.

You going to be available for all the "I told you so's" next week when you look like an idiot? Don't go away mad just go away.


karnaaj;
a helpful hint: there are lots of people here, with a wealth of experience. With your 6 posts, you're not going to earn much respect with your rudeness. Don't be so confrontational, and you may actually learn something here.

otherwise, you'll be treated as nothing more than a :trl::trl::trl:
 
It's the prediction of doom and gloom that get me. Someone wants to post a link to current weather patterns that's great. Just don't make predictions or use that stupid:ld: icon.

cue BTO, You Ain't Seen Nuthin Yet

Look, this is a board for predictions, both fact-based and speculation. You will see a lot of doom and gloom predictions because we are a doomer board. We prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I am a meteorologist and I can tell you that you are right. Any prediction more than 5 days out has as much credibility as your standard pair of dice. But, if people can get some idea of what is going to happen and start preparing early, then if they do get hit...they won't be in quite as much trouble.

As opposed to the other way...in which lots of people can end up dead.

Brandy is right. Your response was rude. Please understand that this is what we do here. If you can't hack it, you're on the wrong board.
 

Hurricanehic

Veteran Member
Hey, it's called "Cape Fear" here for a reason. Yeah, we tend to watch these things closely cause they tend to come here or within a 100 miles of us quite often.

Sure hope this Bertha is not forbodding like her twin was in 1996. If the patterns are the same later in the year we are toast.
 

NC Susan

Deceased
You're joking. Right? You are saying there is one fire they can't put out?

I guess living in Oregon puts a whole new perspective on my thinking. There were hundreds of fires started due to lightning strikes lately and all were put out. Usually there are major fires every year and they get put under control quickly. Most of them that is.

How big is your fire?

Its in the Great Dismal Swamp.
Its a peat bog

Could take YEARS if they dont make some kinda progress soon.

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=291187
 
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