Who wins in the fallout of the California gay-marriage ruling?

kozanne

Inactive
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/05/16/who-wins-in-the-fallout-of-the-california-gay-marriage-ruling/

Who wins in the fallout of the California gay-marriage ruling?posted at 8:00 am on May 16, 2008 by Ed Morrissey

California became the second state in the nation to legalize gay marriage by judicial fiat yesterday, but the court ruling will only heighten the political ramifications of the issue. In an election year, the debate will bring voters to the polls, and a referendum to amend the California constitution will do so in droves. Who wins in the rather remarkable circumstance of having the court decision highlight the ballot initiative? Already we see the presidential candidates carefully plotting their positions:

Democratic Sens. Barack Obama (Ill.) and Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) issued careful and nearly identical statements saying they support civil unions to protect the rights of same-sex couples. Both avoided taking a position on same-sex marriage, saying states should make such decisions.

Sen. John McCain’s campaign said the Arizona Republican “supports the right of the people of California to recognize marriage as a unique institution sanctioning the union between a man and a woman.”

McCain, who last week decried judicial activism, “doesn’t believe judges should be making these decisions,” a spokesman added.

A different reaction came from California’s Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, who has twice vetoed legislation that would have allowed same-sex marriages.

“I respect the Court’s decision and as Governor, I will uphold its ruling,” he said in a statement. “. . . I will not support an amendment to the constitution that would overturn this state Supreme Court ruling.”

Schwarzenegger takes an absurd position in this stance. In one breath, he has supported legislation by judicial diktat while opposing direct democracy. If the people of California want to amend their constitution to define how government recognizes marriage, then elected officials should at least support that process and uphold the will of the people. The governor should have more interest in protecting the process of representative democracy through the proper determination of policy in the legislature and through referendums, and protecting the very processes that allow him to be engaged in policy formation, than in cheerleading for judicial activism.

Government recognition of marriage is a policy decision that should remain in the purview of the people. After all, no one argues that relationships require government sanction; two people can cohabitate without permission, as long as they’re consenting, unrelated adults. They can form contractual partnerships just like any two adults can, as long as the purposes remain legal. The argument in this case is for government sanction of the relationship as marriage — and as such is a public policy decision.

Had the people of California chosen to recognize gay marriage through legislation, I’d accept it — and in truth, I’d consider that a more rational policy than civil unions, which basically reproduce marriage with a different label. Government stopped being in the sacrament business at the moment it offered no-fault divorces.

A civil-union contract has more binding power than does marriage these days. States would do best to leave the term “marriage” as an exclusive province of the churches and have all couples sign civil-union contracts instead, and let the individuals determine whether they feel “married” or not.

The two Democrats can’t bring themselves to say any of this, instead offering support for civil unions while trying their best not to annoy those clinging bitterly to their Bibles. While John McCain has the same position on civil unions, at least he understands the much greater issue of judicial activism better than Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, or Arnold Schwarzenegger. This comes at a perfect time for McCain; he just delivered a speech on that very issue and highlighted the differences between himself and Obama, and this serves as a concrete example.

Could it help him win California in the fall? It’s possible but not terribly likely. The referendum will bring conservatives out in force this November, but it will also face a huge amount of opposition throughout the state and the intelligentsia. In truth, constitutional amendments usually make for bad policy; they act as sledgehammers when scalpels do better, and they’re difficult to reverse when necessary.

Unfortunately, the court forced opponents of gay marriage into this tactic, and all will depend on whether they can get enough people to the polls.

The extent to which they do will benefit McCain without a doubt, and it could force the Democrats to spend a lot more time and money on the presidential race in the Golden State. They cannot afford to lose the massive Electoral College votes if they plan on winning the presidency. The Supreme Court probably just put California in play for the first time in 20 years.
 

Dennis Olson

Chief Curmudgeon
_______________
Currently, no one wins. When this gets to SCOTUS, then a winner will ultimately emerge. I predict that homosexual unions (whatever you want to call them) will be found Constitutional, even by the preponderance of conservative Justices.
 

Dolphins1

Senior Member
Well, Dennis and I can apparently agree on one thing, it will be ratified by the Supreme Court, you can bet on it!
 

Chartreuse

Yellow Solar Sun
I find this view - "If the people of California want to amend their constitution to define how government recognizes marriage, then elected officials should at least support that process and uphold the will of the people" - to be absolutely hilarious.

What is really being said here is that if the people of California want to be bigots and hatemongers, and institutionalize discrimination against a large number of their fellow citizens, they should be able to.

Seriously, NO THEY SHOULDN'T. Virtually no one would argue that if the people of California wanted to amend their constitution to institutionalize disrimination against African-Americans, or against Catholics, or against women, they should be able to do that. This is no different.

As to the question of who wins with this ruling, obviously all of the gay couples who have been denied equal rights are winners in this, but in addition, it's a win for everyone who believes in equality and fairness.

I also don't see this benefitting McCain in any way; I doubt that anyone who would vote for Hillary or Obama is going to switch sides just because the rights of a long-persecuted group were recognized by this decision. And if McCain's camp decides to make this a major issue in the campaign, he might actually lose some folks who wonder why, oh why, he can't concern himself with something that is actually a critical issue for them, like the economy.
 

fairbanksb

Freedom Isn't Free
Currently, no one wins. When this gets to SCOTUS, then a winner will ultimately emerge. I predict that homosexual unions (whatever you want to call them) will be found Constitutional, even by the preponderance of conservative Justices.

The gay agenda gets advanced by redefining what the word marriage means in California. That is about it I think. They get no more benefits than they got under a civil unions law within the State and they still don't get afforded married rights under federal law.
 
When the marriage penalty gets reinstated, the federal government wins. Love with papers is expensive.

And so is alimony, divorce and child support. And gays don't have a very good track record of staying together, at least the ones I know don't.

You asked for it Ellen, you got it.

And I really do love Ellen DeGeneres. She is a sweet gal.

I hate Rosie O to hell and back.
 

kozanne

Inactive
On another blog today, I read that this has an effect on domestic partner benefits at work. I have no idea why, but it must have something to do with legal marriage status. Trying to find the piece now. It happened in MA.

ETA: According to a poster at another board:

That already happened in MA. Companies that offered domestic partnership benefits to cohabitating, unmarried gay couples had no choice to terminate them once gay marriage was imposed. Otherwise, they’d be forced to extend them to straight unmarrieds, or they’d be discriminating against them. The thinking was that the gay couples should get benefits without marriage because marriage wasn’t available to them. So, once it was available, you had to get married or lose your benefits.

Any employee benefits gurus out there to explain the difference between domestic partner benefits and legally married benefits? Or how this latest CA court ruling would impact those employers currently offering domestic partner benefits?
 
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Troke

Deceased
"...On another blog today, I read that this has an effect on domestic partner benefits at work. I have no idea why, but it must have something to do with legal marriage status. Trying to find the piece now. It happened in MA..."

You got the right to marry, no bennies for a live-in. You want the bennies, get married. This was being told to hetero's when they demanded what the homosexuals were getting without being married. They were told that inasmuch they could legally get married, marriage was it. As for homosexuals, they couldn't get married so 'domestic partners' was it.

Now they got to get married, just like everybody else.

There is no free lunch.
__________________
 

Green

Paranoid in Los Angeles
That's an easy one - divorce lawyers! :lkick:

[Snicker] you got that right. I was having dinner with a family law attorney friend of mine last night and he is pleased as punch. And as he tells it, when gay men break up, its fists and bruises! According to him, the more bitter the break up, the more the divorce lawyers make.
 

Oilpatch Hand

3-Bomb General, TB2K Army
[Snicker] you got that right. I was having dinner with a family law attorney friend of mine last night and he is pleased as punch. And as he tells it, when gay men break up, its fists and bruises! According to him, the more bitter the break up, the more the divorce lawyers make.


I think I'm starting to get it now. We've been hearing for years about how gays and lesbians wanted the right to marry. In Massachusetts, however, hardly four days after the first gay marriage was performed, the first gay divorce action was filed.

So now it all becomes far clearer. The gays and lesbians, seeing how much fun heterosexuals were having with divorce, wanted in on the action. And who could blame them? Divorce is great. Just ask any family law practitioner. :lkick:

And normally, in order to have a divorce, you first have to have a marriage (allowing for the occasional exception in the common-law marriage vein.) First things first, don'cha know? :lol:
 

SassyinAZ

Inactive
Here's an update:

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hZmLBrL36NObNyMR0ghXN7vB5hYwD90N0SLG0

Calif. measure will test public opinion on gay marriage
By LISA LEFF – 57 minutes ago

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — The California Supreme Court ruling legalizing gay marriage will not be the last word.

California voters will almost certainly hold a referendum on a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage in November, and for the first time anywhere in the U.S., the vote will have a direct and immediate effect on gay couples waiting to tie the knot.

The amendment needs a simple majority to pass, and if the voters reject gay marriage, their decision will supersede the high court's. There are signs the contest's outcome will be close.


It will certainly be costly — the two sides say they plan to spend at least $25 million combined on the campaign.

"The people who want to defeat the amendment are going to have to work very hard to be successful — harder than the people who want the amendment to pass," said Charles Gossett, a California State University-Pomona political scientist who has analyzed a decades worth of poll numbers on the issue. "But I don't think its impossible."

Though the state has a history of being on the vanguard of gay rights, California residents have polled slightly against same-sex rights in recent years.

The most recent polls, conducted in 2006 and 2007, found that 51 percent and 49 percent of survey respondents opposed making gay marriage legal, while 43 percent and 45 percent endorsed the idea.

Those numbers have remained virtually unchanged since former Gov. Gray Davis signed legislation in 2003 giving registered domestic partners the same rights and benefits as married spouses and since same-sex marriage became legal in Massachusetts in 2004, according to Gossett.

Proponents of the November initiative marriage think the court's 4-3 ruling will hit closer to home and galvanize moderate voters who don't mind gay couples entering into domestic partnerships, but want marriage reserved for a man and a woman.

"You may find even increased support from 2000," when an anti-gay marriage referendum passed easily, said Andrew Pugno of the California Marriage Protection Act campaign. "With this court decision, the need for the marriage amendment is brought into clearer focus."

Mindful of the defeat suffered by gay marriage opponents two years ago in Arizona — the only state where voters have rejected a marriage amendment — the sponsors deliberately decided against trying to simultaneously repeal domestic partner rights, which two-thirds of California voters support.

The secretary of state still must verify the initiative, a decision expected next month.

Groups from across the nation already are pledging resources to defeat or support the measure, similar to gay marriage bans enacted in 26 other states. Colorado-based Focus on the Family and the Democratic Congressional Committee both donated funds during the signature-gathering phase.

The California Conference of Catholic Bishops will not take a position on the measure until it qualifies for the ballot, but "it is obviously an issue they will support," said spokeswoman Carol Hogan. The church's position could be a key factor with Latino voters, who have been registering in greater numbers, Gossett said. The pope reiterated his opposition to gay unions on Friday.

Gossett also noted that survey respondents often give what they consider to be politically correct answers on social questions such as gay marriage, but record their true beliefs at the ballot box. A month before 61 percent of California voters approved the 2000 marriage ban, only 52 percent of likely voters told pollsters they favored the proposition.

Corey Cook, a political scientist at the University of San Francisco, said other demographic and political changes will be in play during a presidential election that has attracted the interest of younger voters who tend to be much more accepting of gay relationships.

"We have a different electorate than we did eight years ago. They're more inclined to vote against the constitutional amendment," Cook said.

Perhaps more importantly, Californians this time might have witnessed hundreds of gay marriages by November. Opponents of gay marriage will ask the high court to stay Thursday's decision, but the court is not obligated to do so.

If gay marriages become a reality this summer, Cook said, voters will be faced with the choice of disappointing their neighbors and relatives. Some think that will only happen in San Francisco but Cook disagreed.

"People who live in Fresno are going to know gay people who are going to be married," he said.

Associated Press Writer Don Thompson contributed to this story.
 

WildDaisy

God has a plan, Trust it!
On another blog today, I read that this has an effect on domestic partner benefits at work. I have no idea why, but it must have something to do with legal marriage status. Trying to find the piece now. It happened in MA.

ETA: According to a poster at another board:



Any employee benefits gurus out there to explain the difference between domestic partner benefits and legally married benefits? Or how this latest CA court ruling would impact those employers currently offering domestic partner benefits?

I'll bite. I work for a company who writes Summary Plan Descriptions...the handbooks you get for your benefits from your employer.

A domestic partner is a same sex or opposite sex partner in which you have been living for a given amount of time (most commonly 5 years, sometimes 7, sometimes less) and in which an intimate relationship exists. Benefits are extended to this partner as if they were a spouse. Medical, Dental, etc. Eligibility rules could include: being at least eighteen years old; not being related more closely than would be allowed for a legal marriage under state law; being in a "committed relationship"; in an exclusive relationship with his or her partner; and financially interdependent with his or her partner.

Some companies only allow same sex domestic partners (gay), others allow both same sex and opposite sex partners. These plans are few and far between because of both the expense and the amount of administration needed to keep it current.

When they make gay marriage legal in California, they will likely TAKE AWAY domestic partner benefits since now there is a legal outcome for someone to become committed. Those who want benefits, like their straight counterparts, will need to marry. Domestic partner benefits were instituited because the gay community insisted that there was no way for them to be treated the same as opposite sex couples when it came to rights of benefits. They would never be eligible because they could never marry. Now that they can, no need for domestic partner benefits anymore. Many will now lose coverage unless they marry.
 

Observer999

Inactive
I'm going to predict that if this Gay Marriage ruling successfully withstands the court challenges and becomes THE LAW in California, then all hell is going to break lose along Cali's fault lines!

God is going to show his dissatisfaction in ways that no one can imagine. The only problem will be - they STILL WON'T GET IT!

:dstrs:
 

Trivium Pursuit

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Am I the only person who has trouble with the principle of government by judicial fiat

No, you're not, pt. 2. The issue of gay marriage is only the most current example; the judicial fiat thing in general is the most treasonous behaviour in this country that I can think of.

Radio host Michael Savage suggests that this theft of the will of the people is so naked, blatant, obvious that it will have a boomeraing effect that will appear in November elections.
 

bev

Has No Life - Lives on TB
No one wins :cry:

What next? Legalized polygamy? See this thread:
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=288196

We are becoming a nation ruled by the politically-correct, whose motto is "live and let live," or better yet, "who cares?"

My DS (married, to a WOMAN, lives in California) expressed his views to me last night. He said, "they [gays] don't bother anyone," "it's not going to make more people become gay," "it's not going to confuse anyone," "why shouldn't they be allowed to marry just like anyone else [heterosexuals]?" "they have rights too."

He says my views are based on my (religious) upbringing, and that that (my religious upbringing) doesn't make them right.

What will my grandchildren's views be based on? They will see less and less of the "traditional" family and more and more of this "alternative" crap. How will they decide what's right? And, who will be teaching our kids???????

I am very sad for our country, and for my children, their children, their children, and so on.
 
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