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SO IF THE REPUBLICANS ARE IN TROUBLE, WHY ARE THESE PEOPLE SO HAPPY? I'm at the NRA Convention in Louisville, Kentucky. I haven't been to a big gun event in probably a decade, and the change in mood is striking: People are, well . . . not ebullient, really, but noticeably cheerful and confident. The defensive crouch of a decade ago is gone. Will that change if the Democrats take the White House?
They don't seem to think so here. Ten years ago, gun rights were under siege. Now the two Democratic presidential candidates are bending over backward to try to paint themselves as pro-gun. It's a lie, of course. But it's a lie that shows where the political balance of power, er, lies on this issue. The Democrats are electing new members of Congress, too -- but, again, they're running as pro-gun. People here, I think, feel like they've got the momentum regardless of what happens in November.
That's bad news for the Republicans, in a way. Scared gun-rights people vote Republican, and work hard to get Republican candidates elected. Confident gun-rights people figure that they can force Democrats to protect their rights, too. Probably the best thing that could happen for John McCain's candidacy -- and for the GOP's Congressional prospects -- would be a Supreme Court decision upholding D.C.'s gun-ban law. Will that happen? Well, possibly. The smart money says "no," but counting Supreme Court votes is a risky business. We'll see.
McCain's speaking here this afternoon -- alas, after I have to leave to return home, as I'm just here to give a talk on the Heller case this morning and will then head back -- and it's the only event in which people aren't allowed to carry guns. That's the Secret Service's demand. If I were McCain, I'd note that I'd feel safer in an audience of armed NRA members. It's likely true, and it would make a point.
The tide for gun nuts is still flowing our way. But get a veto proof Congress and we may see things go differently. BTW, all those recent House races the Stupid Party lost? I think in all cases the Demo that won ran as a conservative, in some cases maybe more so than the Republican. It will be interesting to see if they can preserve that in Congress. My bet is that they can't.
SO IF THE REPUBLICANS ARE IN TROUBLE, WHY ARE THESE PEOPLE SO HAPPY? I'm at the NRA Convention in Louisville, Kentucky. I haven't been to a big gun event in probably a decade, and the change in mood is striking: People are, well . . . not ebullient, really, but noticeably cheerful and confident. The defensive crouch of a decade ago is gone. Will that change if the Democrats take the White House?
They don't seem to think so here. Ten years ago, gun rights were under siege. Now the two Democratic presidential candidates are bending over backward to try to paint themselves as pro-gun. It's a lie, of course. But it's a lie that shows where the political balance of power, er, lies on this issue. The Democrats are electing new members of Congress, too -- but, again, they're running as pro-gun. People here, I think, feel like they've got the momentum regardless of what happens in November.
That's bad news for the Republicans, in a way. Scared gun-rights people vote Republican, and work hard to get Republican candidates elected. Confident gun-rights people figure that they can force Democrats to protect their rights, too. Probably the best thing that could happen for John McCain's candidacy -- and for the GOP's Congressional prospects -- would be a Supreme Court decision upholding D.C.'s gun-ban law. Will that happen? Well, possibly. The smart money says "no," but counting Supreme Court votes is a risky business. We'll see.
McCain's speaking here this afternoon -- alas, after I have to leave to return home, as I'm just here to give a talk on the Heller case this morning and will then head back -- and it's the only event in which people aren't allowed to carry guns. That's the Secret Service's demand. If I were McCain, I'd note that I'd feel safer in an audience of armed NRA members. It's likely true, and it would make a point.
The tide for gun nuts is still flowing our way. But get a veto proof Congress and we may see things go differently. BTW, all those recent House races the Stupid Party lost? I think in all cases the Demo that won ran as a conservative, in some cases maybe more so than the Republican. It will be interesting to see if they can preserve that in Congress. My bet is that they can't.