HeliumAvid
Too Tired to ReTire
http://newpaper.asia1.com.sg/news/story/0,4136,164520,00.html
HE FORESAW OIL PRICE 'SUPER SPIKE'
Many sneered when he predicted oil would cost more than US$80 a barrel. Now, mystery oil guru gets last laugh...
May 12, 2008
WHAT a difference five years make.
file picture: The Straits Times
In 2003, analyst Arjun 'Spike' Murti predicted that oil prices would rise beyond US$80 ($109) a barrel.
Back then, with prices in the US$30 range, his statements won him only sneers and jeers.
In 2005, his prediction that prices would double from US$50 to US$100 before the end of the decade were met with similar scepticism.
On Friday, oil prices surged past US$126 a barrel. Mr Murti now has the last laugh.
Dubbed a 'doomsday prophet' by The Times of India, the 38-year-old managing director at Goldman Sachs is finding himself being taken a little more seriously.
And his vision of the future is bleak. Last month, Mr Murti said that the price of a barrel of oil could hit the US$200 mark.
The man behind the 'super spike' theory - which is based on the rising demand for crude oil versus the limits on refining capacity - is a surprisingly private individual.
He does not make business television appearances and does not give interviews. His pictures are not easily available.
PHANTOM ANALYST
The Times of India reported that the 'phantom analyst' lives in New Jersey, in the US.
He has a wife, Rita, ran a 5km race in less than 25 minutes in 2006 and sold a million-dollar home some years back.
Mr Murti's designation at Goldman Sachs is 'managing director and senior equity investment analyst'. He has been with the company for nearly 10years.
He made a rare public appearance in 2004, when he appeared before the USCommittee on Energy and Commerce.
Then, he warned US lawmakers that the country's energy situation would be dire if the heavy reliance on sports utility vehicles was not broken.
He said: 'The lack of fuel-switching options for transportation fuels and consumer preferences for large, powerful, and comfortable vehicles are the key reasons oil demand... Very simply, most Americans would rather own a large, gas-guzzling SUV and paymore for gasoline than an embarrassingly cramped but fuel- efficient Mini.'
He added: 'It would be logical for the US government to proactively implement policies that encourage a reduction in the growth rate of oil demand.
'We note that the cost of waiting will likely result in much greater economic damage over the long term than the short-term inconvenience of no longer being able to buy an inexpensive SUV as an example.'
As early as in 2004, Mr Murti was already advocating that the US government encourage the use of hybrid vehicles and mass transport.
In response, the public laughed. One blogger, in reference to MrMurti's forecast of a sharp oil price spike, said jokingly that the analyst might be 'a big Buffy fan or something.'
'Spike' is a character in the popular Buffy The Vampire Slayer TV series.
CONSPIRACY THEORIES
There were even conspiracy theorists who suggested that Mr Murti was out to bring profits to energy majors.
He did receive support from some quarters, notably the financial media.
Fortune called the insider trading theory 'idiotic', and described his report as 'a thoughtful 30-page piece of logical analysis that was grossly oversimplified'.
Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to weaken against the euro, pushing oil prices to record highs.
Mr Murti's 6 May report said: 'The possibility of US$150 to US$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six to 24 months.'
Opec President Chakib Khelil agreed. Bloomburg quoted him as saying that oil at US$200 is 'possible if we have a continuing devaluation of the dollar with respect to other currencies'.
HE FORESAW OIL PRICE 'SUPER SPIKE'
Many sneered when he predicted oil would cost more than US$80 a barrel. Now, mystery oil guru gets last laugh...
May 12, 2008
WHAT a difference five years make.
file picture: The Straits Times
In 2003, analyst Arjun 'Spike' Murti predicted that oil prices would rise beyond US$80 ($109) a barrel.
Back then, with prices in the US$30 range, his statements won him only sneers and jeers.
In 2005, his prediction that prices would double from US$50 to US$100 before the end of the decade were met with similar scepticism.
On Friday, oil prices surged past US$126 a barrel. Mr Murti now has the last laugh.
Dubbed a 'doomsday prophet' by The Times of India, the 38-year-old managing director at Goldman Sachs is finding himself being taken a little more seriously.
And his vision of the future is bleak. Last month, Mr Murti said that the price of a barrel of oil could hit the US$200 mark.
The man behind the 'super spike' theory - which is based on the rising demand for crude oil versus the limits on refining capacity - is a surprisingly private individual.
He does not make business television appearances and does not give interviews. His pictures are not easily available.
PHANTOM ANALYST
The Times of India reported that the 'phantom analyst' lives in New Jersey, in the US.
He has a wife, Rita, ran a 5km race in less than 25 minutes in 2006 and sold a million-dollar home some years back.
Mr Murti's designation at Goldman Sachs is 'managing director and senior equity investment analyst'. He has been with the company for nearly 10years.
He made a rare public appearance in 2004, when he appeared before the USCommittee on Energy and Commerce.
Then, he warned US lawmakers that the country's energy situation would be dire if the heavy reliance on sports utility vehicles was not broken.
He said: 'The lack of fuel-switching options for transportation fuels and consumer preferences for large, powerful, and comfortable vehicles are the key reasons oil demand... Very simply, most Americans would rather own a large, gas-guzzling SUV and paymore for gasoline than an embarrassingly cramped but fuel- efficient Mini.'
He added: 'It would be logical for the US government to proactively implement policies that encourage a reduction in the growth rate of oil demand.
'We note that the cost of waiting will likely result in much greater economic damage over the long term than the short-term inconvenience of no longer being able to buy an inexpensive SUV as an example.'
As early as in 2004, Mr Murti was already advocating that the US government encourage the use of hybrid vehicles and mass transport.
In response, the public laughed. One blogger, in reference to MrMurti's forecast of a sharp oil price spike, said jokingly that the analyst might be 'a big Buffy fan or something.'
'Spike' is a character in the popular Buffy The Vampire Slayer TV series.
CONSPIRACY THEORIES
There were even conspiracy theorists who suggested that Mr Murti was out to bring profits to energy majors.
He did receive support from some quarters, notably the financial media.
Fortune called the insider trading theory 'idiotic', and described his report as 'a thoughtful 30-page piece of logical analysis that was grossly oversimplified'.
Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to weaken against the euro, pushing oil prices to record highs.
Mr Murti's 6 May report said: 'The possibility of US$150 to US$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six to 24 months.'
Opec President Chakib Khelil agreed. Bloomburg quoted him as saying that oil at US$200 is 'possible if we have a continuing devaluation of the dollar with respect to other currencies'.