8/25/07-8/31/07|Weekly Bird Flu Thread:Bird flu is found in Vietnam again

Link to Last Weeks Thread:

HEALTH - 8/18/07-8/24/07|Weekly Bird Flu Thread:Indonesia tries to allay fears over Bali case

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=253147

Johns Hopkins on influenza:

http://www.iom.edu/Object.File/Master/33/450/Rashid Chotani.pdf

National Avian Influenza Surveillance Information:

http://wildlifedisease.nbii.gov/ai/

CDC

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/index.htm

WHO

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/index.html

CIDRAP

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/

Official U.S. Government Web site

http://www.pandemicflu.gov/

FAO

http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/subjects/en/health/diseases-cards/special_avian.html

Public Health Agency of Canada

http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/influenza/avian_qa_e.html

European Union

http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/health_consumer/dyna/influenza/country_en.htm

The World Bank

http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXT...68427~piPK:64168435~theSitePK:1793593,00.html

Bird flu is found in Vietnam again​

http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topi...=168644&version=1&template_id=45&parent_id=25

Published: Saturday, 25 August, 2007, 06:47 AM Doha Time
HANOI: Bird flu has spread to two more provinces in Vietnam, killing hundreds of chickens and ducks, the Agriculture Ministry said yesterday.

The outbreak of H5N1 in the northern province of Thai Nguyen and Dong Thap to the south brought to four the number of provinces on the government’s current bird flu watchlist. Vietnam has 64 provinces.

A total of 150 ducks and 35 chickens fell sick on Wednesday in Thai Nguyen, 80km north of Hanoi, and tests have confirmed they had the H5N1 virus, the ministry’s Animal Health Department said in a report.

The virus also struck a farm in the southern Mekong delta province of Dong Thap where 250 chickens were found dead last Sunday, it said. Reuters

Bird flu found in southern German poultry farm​

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L25355240.htm

BERLIN, Aug 25 (Reuters) - Authorities have closed off a poultry farm in southern Germany after an outbreak of bird flu.

Local veterinary authorities said late on Friday checks at the farm in the Erlangen-Hoechstadt area in Bavaria had discovered birds infected with the H5N1 virus.

A spokeswoman said samples would be examined to determine whether the birds were infected with the deadly strain of H5N1. There was no danger to people in the area, she said.

The farm contains around 44,000 birds.

Germany identified several cases of the deadly H5N1 strain in wild birds in Bavaria in June. Several bird flu infections were also registered in Germany last year.

Earlier this week, Russia banned poultry imports from Italy to prevent the spread of bird flu after outbreaks there.

Germany culls 160,000 geese to combat bird flu​

http://news.monstersandcritics.com/...Germany_culls_160000_geese_to_combat_bird_flu

Aug 26, 2007, 17:59 GMT

Erlangen, Germany - German health officials slaughtered 160,000 geese over the weekend after the deadly H5N1 bird-flu virus was found in a poultry farm near the southern city of Erlangen.

The cull was ordered after 400 geese were found dead in their compound on Friday. Tests by the Friedrich Loeffler Institute of Veterinary Medicine found the lethal strain in five of the birds.

A team of eight vets and poultry workers at the farm in Wachenroth, Bavaria, started what officials called the biggest ever culling operation in Germany late on Saturday.

The birds were placed in three large containers where they were either gassed or electrocuted, officials said after the operation ended on Sunday afternoon.

A three-kilometre exclusion zone was set up around the farm as officials began tracking down the cause of the infection. Initial reports said the infected animals came from another poultry farm in the northern state of Lower Saxony, but this was later denied.

'We have not been able to pinpoint the source of outbreak,' said Bavarian Health Secretary Otmar Bernhard. 'The infection might have come frow straw, but that is just a suspicion.'

The H5N1 strain of avian influenza has killed nearly 200 people in recent years, mainly through direct contact with poultry. Most of the victims have been in Asia.

There have been no human deaths from bird flu in Europe, where outbreaks were reported recently in several countries, including Germany and the Czech Republic.

Bird flu hit wild water-birds and some domestic poultry in other parts of Germany this year.

Bird flu feared in another Bali death​

http://www.straitstimes.com/Latest+News/Asia/STIStory_151908.html

JAKARTA - AN Indonesian woman suspected of being infected with bird flu has died in Bali, hospital sources said on Sunday, stoking fears of a wider outbreak on the resort island.

Samples from the 43-year-old woman, a resident of the island's main city Denpasar, have been sent to Jakarta for testing, said Putu Andrika, head of the bird flu control unit at Sanglah general hospital.

Two tests must come back positive for the H5N1 virus before a victim is confirmed as part of the official bird flu death toll in Indonesia, which is the highest in the world at 84.

The woman, who died on Saturday, was suffering from serious lung infection, one of the main symptoms of avian influenza, he said.

Mr Andrika said the woman was not known to have been in contact with dead birds. Transmission usually occurs directly from birds to humans.

If confirmed to be infected with the H5N1 strain of the virus, the woman would be the third fatality on the island this month.

The deaths have raised fears of a possible negative impact on tourism here.

Thousands of birds have been culled since then as a precautionary measure and poultry has been banned from being transported in or out of the district for one month. -- AFP

Fears of wider birdflu outbreak in Indonesia​

http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/news/stories/s2016294.htm

Last Updated 27/08/2007, 13:02:12
Select text size:
Large size textMedium size textNormal size text

An Indonesian woman suspected of being infected with bird flu has died in Bali, raising fears of a wider outbreak.

Blood samples from the 43-year-old resident of Denpasar have been sent to Jakarta for testing.

If it is confirmed that she was infected with the H5N1 strain of the virus, the woman would be Bali's third bird flu fatality this month.

Radio Australia's Girish Sawlani reports the outbreak is also effecting Bali's restaurant trade, and of course the farmers whose livelihoods are based on raising poultry.

The outbreak has lead to a ban on chicken imports from East Java while local farmers have been instructed to keep their chickens penned up.

Avian Influenza or Bird Flu has already claimed two lives in August and the culling of more than 6000 fowl.

According to Agung Surywan, the chairman of the research centre of culture and tourism at the Udayana University, this is causing great hardships for farmers but he says the Balinese government has been providing adequate compensation to farmers who have not been able to sell their chickens.

"The government has already provided what we call special crisis funding," he says.

Despite fears of a potential epidemic, Mr Suryawan says that the local community is uniting behind the Balinese government and community leaders to help stop the spread of Bird Flu.

"At the moment, the community (members) who have chickens are willing to give their chickens to be killed," he says.

Despite the outbreak, Mr. Suryawan says that the bird flu outbreak has barely had any impact on Bali's tourism industry.

As part of preventive measures to stop the further spread of bird flu and maintain confidence among tourists, many hotels and restaurants have taken chicken off their menu, leading to a decline in demand for poultry.

But Dr. Ngurah Mahardika, head of Animal Biomedical and Molecular Biology laboratory at Udayana University says the initiative was not neccessary.

He says that the danger is in raw meat not in the cooked meat.

"I think the development by the hotel and restaurant industry by taking out all the chicken meat from the menu is not a good way to ensure the security of the tourism industry, " he says.

Vietnam reports new bird flu outbreak​

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070827/hl_afp/healthfluvietnam

HANOI (AFP) - Bird flu has spread to another Vietnamese province, with an H5N1 outbreak hitting a flock of young ducks on a Mekong Delta farm, the animal health department in Hanoi said Monday.
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About 150 ducklings were infected with the virus, leading to the culling of the entire flock of 450 unvaccinated waterfowl in Tra Cu district, Tra Vinh province, the department said in an online report.

Vietnam has now placed four of its 64 provinces and municipalities on its bird flu watchlist, also including Cao Bang near China and the northern mountainous provinces of Thai Nguyen and Dong Thap.

Once the country worst hit by bird flu, Vietnam has controlled the virus with mass culls and vaccination campaigns. But avian influenza came back strongly this year, spreading to 18 provinces and municipalities in May.

This year, four people have been killed by bird flu, bringing the human death toll to 46 since the virus broke out in the country in late 2003.

So far this year, animal health experts have vaccinated more than 163 million head of poultry in an effort to contain H5N1.

The World Health Organisation has recorded 322 cases of bird flu in humans globally, 195 of which were fatal.

Experts fear the virus could mutate and become easily transmissible between humans, leading to a pandemic with the potential to kill millions.

EU vets to meet to review German bird flu​

http://www.focus-fen.net/index.php?id=n120568

28 August 2007 | 13:42 | FOCUS News Agency

Brussels. EU veterinary experts are likely to meet next week to reassess poultry trade and movement curbs imposed in the German state of Bavaria after an outbreak of the H5N1 strain of bird flu, the bloc's executive said, Reuters informed.

As a standard short-term measure to prevent the spread of the disease, German authorities set up a protection and surveillance zone around the Bavarian duck farm where the highly pathogenic strain was detected at the weekend.
That zone, comprising an initial 3-km protection radius followed by a 10-km surveillance radius, is classified as a high-risk area (zone A), surrounded by a low-risk buffer zone (zone B) that separates it from disease-free parts of Germany.

The German measures were then approved by veterinary experts at the European Commission, in a decision published on Tuesday in the latest edition of the EU's Official Journal.

Turkey empire still reeling​

http://www.eveningnews24.co.uk/cont...gory=news&itemid=NOED28 Aug 2007 09:32:29:217

28 August 2007 09:32

A “treble hit” of bird flu, cruelty allegations and the row over turkey Twizzlers has left iconic Norfolk brand Bernard Matthews battling to regain consumers' trust, its UK chief executive has admitted.

Bart Dalla Mura said the company - which employs 3,500 staff across East Anglia and hundreds in Norfolk - was still reeling from the impact of February's bird flu outbreak at one of its Suffolk farms.

And now rising animal feed prices could see the price of fresh turkeys go up this Christmas.

Mr Dalla Mura also revealed the company, whose main base is in Great Witchingham, was keen to re-emphasise its East Anglian roots and was working to ensure that all products sold under the Bernard Matthews name came from British turkeys.

“The importance of being British was something we had underestimated,” he said.

In the aftermath of the bird flu crisis - which saw the firm's meat imports from Hungary come under scrutiny - consumers gave turkey the cold shoulder and sales of Matthews products fell by a third.

Six months on, sales of some lines have recovered, helped in part by a new advertising and marketing campaign.

But sales of cooked meats, a crucial part of the Bernard Matthews business, are still about 20pc down.

The company says the poor summer has hit food sales, and consumers are still shunning turkey for pork.

At the same time, Bernard Matthews' recovery plans have been hit by the rising cost of grain, which is making it far more expensive to rear turkeys on its farms across East Anglia.

It means consumers will almost certainly have to pay more for their fresh Christmas turkeys.

The difficulties mean that a staff pay freeze introduced earlier in the year remains in place.

While recruitment of some production workers is under way in the run-up to Christmas, the company is keeping a tight control on costs.

Mr Dalla Mura said: “The company has been through some difficult times in the past, but whenever things have been tight, one or two things have been going well for us. At the moment we don't have that.

“We have had the treble hit of Twizzlers, turkey cruelty and bird flu. Now the wet summer has impacted on food sales and higher grain prices are going to hit our costs.”

In 2005 celebrity chef Jamie Oliver criticised Bernard Matthews for its “unhealthy” Turkey Twizzlers.

And last year two employees of a company working for Bernard Matthews were convicted of animal cruelty after being filmed playing baseball with live turkeys.

Over the past few months the price of grain has almost doubled because of poor harvests in major grain producing locations including Canada and Europe.

As a company Bernard Matthews buys about 150,000 tonnes of grain a year to rear birds on its farms across East Anglia.

While the company has been able to insulate itself against rising prices by agreeing a price in advance for some of the grain it needs, these forward purchases will not cover all its requirements.

“The feed price is a real problem,” said Mr dalla Mura. “We just can't absorb it. We have to look at how we can recover it by raising prices.”

Study Confirms Limited Human-To-Human Spread
of Avian-Flu Virus in Indonesia in 2006​

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/s...07/0004652358&EDATE=TUE+Aug+28+2007,+07:00+AM

New software will provide first real-time analysis of such
infectious-disease outbreaks

SEATTLE, Aug. 28 /PRNewswire/ -- In the first systematic, statistical
analysis of its kind, infectious-disease-modeling experts at Fred
Hutchinson Cancer Research Center confirm that the avian influenza A (H5N1)
virus in 2006 spread between a small number of people within a family in
Indonesia. The findings, by biostatistician Ira M. Longini Jr., Ph.D., and
colleagues, appear online and will be published in the Sept. 1 print
edition of Emerging Infectious Diseases, a journal of the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention.

Co-authors on the paper were biostatisticians M. Elizabeth (Betz)
Halloran, M.D., D.Sc., and Yang Yang, Ph.D.; and epidemiologist Jonathan
Sugimoto, M.H.S., a pre-doctoral research associate. All are within the
Hutchinson Center's Public Health Sciences Division and Vaccine and
Infectious Disease Institute.

The researchers based their findings on a cluster of eight flu cases
within an extended family in northern Sumatra. Using a computerized
disease-transmission model that took into account the number of infected
cases, the number of people potentially exposed, the viral-incubation
period and other parameters, the researchers produced the first statistical
confirmation of humans contracting the disease from each other rather than
from infected birds.

The cluster contained a chain of infection that involved a 10-year-old
boy who probably caught the virus from his 37-year-old aunt, who had been
exposed to dead poultry and chicken feces, the presumed source of
infection. The boy then probably passed the virus to his father. The
possibility that the boy infected his father was supported by genetic
sequencing data. Other person-to-person transmissions in the cluster are
backed up with statistical data. All but one of the flu victims died, and
all had had sustained close contact with other ill family members prior to
getting sick -- a factor considered crucial for transmission of this
particular flu strain.

In an attempt to contain the spread of the virus, the local health
authorities eventually placed more than 50 surviving relatives and close
contacts under voluntary quarantine and all, except for pregnant women and
infants, received antiviral medication as a precaution.

"The containment strategy was implemented late in the game, so it could
have been just luck that the virus burned out," Longini said. "It went two
generations and then just stopped, but it could have gotten out of control.
The world really may have dodged a bullet with that one, and the next time
we might not be so lucky," he said.

Should a strain of avian flu acquire the ability to cause sustained
human-to-human transmission, the results could be catastrophic, Longini
said. "If not contained, the outbreak could spread worldwide through the
global transportation network faster than the appropriate vaccine supply
could be made available. That's why it's so important to ascertain whether
human-to-human transmission is happening as well as the virulence of the
strain." The researchers estimated the secondary-attack rate of the virus
in Indonesia -- the risk of one infected person passing it to another -- to
be 29 percent, a level of infectiousness similar to statistical estimates
for seasonal influenza A in the United States.

The researchers also aimed their statistical transmission-assessment
technology at another large avian-flu cluster in eastern Turkey that in
2006 infected eight people, four of whom died. In this case, the
researchers did not find statistical evidence of human-to-human
transmission, most likely due to a lack of sufficient data. "There probably
was person-to-person spread there as well but we couldn't get all the
information we needed for the analysis," Yang said.

The methods and software used in this research led to the development
of a software application called TranStat, which will allow first
responders to enter, store and perform real-time analysis of data from
infectious-disease outbreaks. This tool soon will be available online free
of charge via MIDAS, the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study, which is
supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences.
"We know the key to preventing a pandemic is early detection,
containment and mitigation with antiviral therapy and this tool will enable
those on the front lines, such as physicians, epidemiologists and other
public-health officials, to carry that out efficiently," Halloran said.

"The manuals on how to collect the necessary data are decades old. They are
very outdated and incomplete. Often people on the front lines don't know
what to do; they don't collect the correct data to assess whether
transmission is occurring. TranStat will prompt people to gather precisely
the data that needs to be collected to better understand and contain any
infectious-disease spread, not just the avian flu," Sugimoto said.

If a smoldering disease cluster does flame out of control, the software
also could be used to estimate the important characteristics of the virus
-- such as its transmissibility, secondary-attack rate and reproductive
number -- which would give public-health officials a better chance at
slowing its spread until a vaccine or other effective control measures
could be implemented.

Yang and colleagues recently described the basis for the statistical
methods used in the research in The Annals of Applied Statistics.
The study was funded and supported by the National Institute of General
Medical Sciences MIDAS network and the National Institute of Allergy and
Infectious Diseases.

Longini and Halloran also are professors of biostatistics and Sugimoto
is a pre-doctoral student in the School of Public Health and Community
Medicine at the University of Washington.

At Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, our interdisciplinary teams
of world-renowned scientists and humanitarians work together to prevent,
diagnose and treat cancer, HIV/AIDS and other diseases. Our researchers,
including three Nobel laureates, bring a relentless pursuit and passion for
health, knowledge and hope to their work and to the world. For more
information, please visit fhcrc.org.

South Africa

Mystery flu bug hits region​

http://www.theherald.co.za/herald/news/n01_28082007.htm

By Sipho Masondo and Luyolo Mkentane

A MYSTERIOUS, punch-packing viral infection causing severe flu has hit the Eastern and Southern Cape, doctors and pharmacists said yesterday.

Most general practitioners attributed the flu to seasonal changes.

Dr Mthembeni Tebelele, of KwaDwesi, said she had been seeing about 20 people a day with flu symptoms for the past two weeks. The symptoms included dry coughing and vomiting.

Dr Deon-Jacques Pieterse, of Uitenhage, said the symptoms were a bit worse than in past years. “People complain of headaches, muscle aches, fever and sore throats.

“But there is nothing unusual about flu, especially towards spring, which normally exposes people to more viral infections.”

Another doctor, who did not want to be named, said: “It‘s very bad, every second person has it. The people are very sick. The main complication is muscular pain, headaches and a runny nose.”

He said it was much worse than compared to the same time last year.

Dr Dan Vandayar in Harrower Road said people should ensure that they got enough sleep. “It‘s because of the unusual weather patterns, and it is very difficult for the body to adjust. Today the temperature is 17°C, and the next it‘s 27°C.”

Adele Bresler, from Valuechem Pharmacy, said many people were suffering from the flu. “It‘s that time of the year when even people who normally don‘t get sick, get sick. I think it‘s the weather,” she said, adding that there had been an increase in demand for flu-related medicines.

Another pharmacist, who did not want to be named, said her pharmacy had seen more than 100 people over the past weekend. Samantha Africa, from the Greenacres Pharmacy, said they had been just as busy.

In the Southern Cape, Dr Neels Joubert, of Knysna, said he had treated a third of his patients for “this flu” at the beginning of August, but that it had dropped off.

He said it was caused by some kind of a “flu virus”, adding its name was still a mystery. The symptom, he said, included chest infections, sore throats, fevers and headaches.

However, “people can also get secondary infections because the immune systems becomes weak”.

Dr Johan Olivier, also from Knysna, had treated “lots” of patients infected by the virus.

Although not convinced it was an outbreak, Sedgefield‘s Dr Bennie Stander said the flu cases had been a bit more severe than expected at this time of the year.

“It‘s more contagious. What I‘ve experienced is that more people in the family are likely to be affected.”

Speaking on behalf of doctors affiliated to the Port Elizabeth General Practitioners, Antoinette Martin said the flu was a bit better than it had been about three weeks ago.

“It seems to be quietening down. It‘s not worse than in previous years, it‘s just that this time it came a bit later. The cold fronts came in late this year, and once people get flu it spreads. It‘s not abnormal.”

However, she said, what might have escalated the flu was the fact that spring was the “allergy season”, which also brought a lot of flu-like symptoms.

German H5N1 bird flu more widespread than first thought​

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/99049.html

Erlangen, Germany - The outbreak of bird flu found on a duck farm near the southern German city of Erlangen last week was probably more widespread and of longer duration than first thought, veterinary officials said Tuesday. Examination of birds destroyed to contain the outbreak revealed that ducks from two other enclosures other than the one where the outbreak was first found had been infected, Ottmar Fick, head of the local veterinary authority said.

Fick noted, however, that it was unclear whether these birds had also been infected with the H5N1 virus, which is potentially deadly to humans.

He added that it was possible that the H5N1 virus had been present for some time on the farm but that the symptoms had shown only in one of the 15 enclosures.

Experts are still trying to find out where the virus originated. Earlier reports said it might have been transferred in straw.

Not all waterfowl suffered acute symptoms from the virus, and the incubation period could drag on over weeks, Fick said.

He added that it was not clear whether infected birds had been offered for sale commercially. "We cannot exclude delivery," Fick said.

Following the discovery on Friday, all 166,000 ducks and ducklings on the farm were destroyed.

The H5N1 strain of avian influenza is fatal to humans but cannot be transferred between humans. It has hit wild water-birds and some domestic poultry in other parts of Germany this year.

Humans Spread Bird Flu To Humans in Indonesia​

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/08/070828154944.htm

Science Daily — In the first systematic, statistical analysis of its kind, infectious-disease-modeling experts at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center confirm that the avian influenza A (H5N1) virus in 2006 spread between a small number of people within a family in Indonesia. The findings, by biostatistician Ira M. Longini Jr., Ph.D., and colleagues, will be published inthe journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.

Co-authors on the paper were biostatisticians M. Elizabeth (Betz) Halloran, M.D., D.Sc., and Yang Yang, Ph.D.; and epidemiologist Jonathan Sugimoto, M.H.S., a pre-doctoral research associate. All are within the Hutchinson Center's Public Health Sciences Division and Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute.

The researchers based their findings on a cluster of eight flu cases within an extended family in northern Sumatra. Using a computerized disease-transmission model that took into account the number of infected cases, the number of people potentially exposed, the viral-incubation period and other parameters, the researchers produced the first statistical confirmation of humans contracting the disease from each other rather than from infected birds.

The cluster contained a chain of infection that involved a 10-year-old boy who probably caught the virus from his 37-year-old aunt, who had been exposed to dead poultry and chicken feces, the presumed source of infection. The boy then probably passed the virus to his father. The possibility that the boy infected his father was supported by genetic sequencing data. Other person-to-person transmissions in the cluster are backed up with statistical data. All but one of the flu victims died, and all had had sustained close contact with other ill family members prior to getting sick — a factor considered crucial for transmission of this particular flu strain.

In an attempt to contain the spread of the virus, the local health authorities eventually placed more than 50 surviving relatives and close contacts under voluntary quarantine and all, except for pregnant women and infants, received antiviral medication as a precaution.

"The containment strategy was implemented late in the game, so it could have been just luck that the virus burned out," Longini said. "It went two generations and then just stopped, but it could have gotten out of control. The world really may have dodged a bullet with that one, and the next time we might not be so lucky," he said.

Should a strain of avian flu acquire the ability to cause sustained human-to-human transmission, the results could be catastrophic, Longini said. "If not contained, the outbreak could spread worldwide through the global transportation network faster than the appropriate vaccine supply could be made available. That's why it's so important to ascertain whether human-to-human transmission is happening as well as the virulence of the strain." The researchers estimated the secondary-attack rate of the virus in Indonesia — the risk of one infected person passing it to another — to be 29 percent, a level of infectiousness similar to statistical estimates for seasonal influenza A in the United States.

The researchers also aimed their statistical transmission-assessment technology at another large avian-flu cluster in eastern Turkey that in 2006 infected eight people, four of whom died. In this case, the researchers did not find statistical evidence of human-to-human transmission, most likely due to a lack of sufficient data. "There probably was person-to-person spread there as well but we couldn't get all the information we needed for the analysis," Yang said.

The methods and software used in this research led to the development of a software application called TranStat, which will allow first responders to enter, store and perform real-time analysis of data from infectious-disease outbreaks. This tool soon will be available online free of charge via MIDAS, the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study, which is supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences.

"We know the key to preventing a pandemic is early detection, containment and mitigation with antiviral therapy and this tool will enable those on the front lines, such as physicians, epidemiologists and other public-health officials, to carry that out efficiently," Halloran said. "The manuals on how to collect the necessary data are decades old. They are very outdated and incomplete. Often people on the front lines don't know what to do; they don't collect the correct data to assess whether transmission is occurring. TranStat will prompt people to gather precisely the data that needs to be collected to better understand and contain any infectious-disease spread, not just the avian flu," Sugimoto said.

If a smoldering disease cluster does flame out of control, the software also could be used to estimate the important characteristics of the virus — such as its transmissibility, secondary-attack rate and reproductive number — which would give public-health officials a better chance at slowing its spread until a vaccine or other effective control measures could be implemented.

Yang and colleagues recently described the basis for the statistical methods used in the research in The Annals of Applied Statistics.

The study was funded and supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences MIDAS network and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Longini and Halloran also are professors of biostatistics and Sugimoto is a pre-doctoral student in the School of Public Health and Community Medicine at the University of Washington.

References: Emerging Infectious Diseases paper, "Detecting human-to-human transmission of avian influenza A (H5N1)", September 1, print edition. This journal is published by the CDC.

The Annals of Applied Statistics paper, "A resampling-based test to detect person-to-person transmission of infectious disease" (2007, Vol. 1, No. 1, 211-228)

Note: This story has been adapted from a news release issued by Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.

Bird Samples From Mongolia Confirmed As H5N1 Avian Flu​

http://www.mongolia-web.com/content/view/1336/154/

Wednesday, 29 August 2007
ImageThe United States Department of Agriculture has positively identified the pathogenic form of avian flu--H5N1--in samples taken from birds last week from Mongolia.

It is the first instance of this viral strain occurring in wild migratory birds with no apparent contact with domestic poultry or waterfowl.

Present in Mongolia for a health survey of wild bird populations in the south and north of the country, field veterinarians working for the Wildlife Conservation Society, Drs. William Karesh and Martin Gilbert responded to initial reports of the most recent avian influenza outbreak in Khuvsgul Province near the Russian border from the Mongolian Ministry of Food and Agriculture, which conducted preliminary testing of birds that died at Erkhel Lake.

Their finding coincided with confirmations of cases of avian influenza in Russia and Kazakhstan. Karesh and Gilbert immediately traveled to the site with a team of Mongolian virologists, veterinarians, and public health officials. Approximately 100 dead birds were found at the site.

The team--including personnel from the Wildlife Conservation Society, the Mongolian National Academy of Sciences, the Mongolian Institute of Veterinary Medicine, the State Central Veterinary Laboratory, Ministry of Food and Agriculture Veterinary Department, and the Ministry of Health Mongolian Center of Communicable Diseases--collected samples from hundreds of wild birds, both live and dead.

Wildlife and health experts maintain that indiscriminate culling of wild migratory bird populations would be ineffective in preventing the spread of avian flu. "Focusing our limited resources on the hubs and activities where humans, livestock, and wildlife come into close contact," says Dr. Karesh, is "the best hope for successfully preventing the spread of avian flu and protecting both people and animals."

Bird dead, how to handle?​

http://www.thejakartapost.com/detaileditorial.asp?fileid=20070829.F07&irec=6

On Aug. 26 I found a dead wild bird in my yard. I am living in Bali near the area where bird flu related deaths have occurred.

Since I was worried about the possible risk connected with dead birds, I tried to contact some authority to guide me on how to handle this situation.

I tried to reach the main hospital in Bali, Sanglah, and the answer was to go there if sick but they do not know anything regarding dead birds or chickens.

Next I tried to contact 110, the emergency number of the police: there was no answer. I tried then with the health and animal departments: again no answer.

I then called a newspaper office and spoke with a journalist there: she did not know of any special procedure in place to handle the bird flu-related problems neither she was aware of any emergency number.

I tried then to contact the head of my village (in the Kerobokan area) and his reaction was: "Just bury the bird, there is no problem." How would he know?

Eventually I obtained, through a friend, the personal cell phone number of a doctor nice enough to put me in touch with two nice guys from the animal department who came to my house to check the bird four hours after I began my search for information.

Well this does not seem anywhere near a coordinated response to the bird flu problem.

I believe that the people concerned from the government side should be very active and disperse information through newspapers and TV, and I thought an emergency center had been set up to handle emergencies and distribute information to the general public. Well, nothing like this exists!

Bird flu is a very serious problem which requires a strong effort from the side of the civil servants to try to minimize the risk connected with it.

I hope this letter reaches some more reactive authority who will take some action, but mainly I look forward to many more such letter from the public to put strong pressure on these negligent guys and force them to take immediate action in line with the recommendations of the Indonesian government and the WHO.

GIUSEPPE VERDACCHI
Denpasar

Indonesia: Bali shaken by first bird flu victims​

http://www.adnkronos.com/AKI/English/Security/?id=1.0.1253731167

Jembrana, 29 August (AKI) - Ni Nengah Sriati fights back tears as she speaks about the loss of both her daughter and granddaughter - believed to be the first victims of the deadly bird flu virus on the Indonesian island of Bali.

"The silence gives us no peace, it underscores their absence," Ni Nengah Sriati (See photo) told Adnkronos International (AKI) in an exclusive interview. "They were full of life and it was a joy to have them around."

Ni Luh Putu Sri Widiartini, 29, died on 12 August at Sanglah Hospital in the Balinese capital of Denpasar. Two laboratory tests have confirmed that she died from bird flu.

Widiartini's five-year-old daughter, Dian, had died a few days before her suffering similar symptoms but was not tested for the H5N1 virus. Her grandfather has no doubt about the cause of her death.

"She had the same symptoms as her mother, we are sure she was killed by the chickens," I Nengah Sukdara told AKI.

Widiartini's death takes the official bird flu toll to 84 in Indonesia - the highest in the world. There have been 105 confirmed cases there.

The death of Widiartini was followed soon after by the death of 40-year-old Ayu Srinadi in the Tabanan district, only 20 kilometres from the tourist area, Kuta.

As the island's tourism industry assesses the potential damage of the bird flu cases, the family of the victims are dealing with their personal heartbreak.

Dian, Widiartini and her husband, I Nengah Budi Setiawan, were living with the family in the relatively remote village of Dangin Tukar Aya, in Jembrana, 100 kilometres west of Denpasar.

"It was a happy home. There was always noise, laughter and cuddles," said the inconsolable Sriati.

Sriati's husband said it was normal to have chickens at home and remembers when some of them died.

" We had eight of them, they moved around freely then four of them died suddenly," he said. "We thought it could have been bird flu and we moved them and buried them with bamboo."

According to Ranu Putra, the village leader, several chickens have died in the area since May.

"No-one knew what to do about it," he said.

After the death of Widiartini, the government banned the importation of poultry from the nearby island of Java and slaughtered all the birds and poultry in a one kilometre radius from the house of the victims.

"Most people agreed to it because they are so afraid," said Ranu.

Nevertheless AKI saw chickens running freely only 500 metres from Widiartini's home in Jembrana.

Local authorities are alarmed by the recent bird flu outbreak afraid it will have a negative impact on the island's fragile tourism industry.

Their concern is particularly acute because large numbers of tourists have recently returned to Bali this summer after the devastating bombings of 2002 and 2005.

According to official figures, in July this year, 165,000 foreign tourists visited Bali - a 35 percent increase over the previous year.

Since 2003, when the bird flu virus reappeared in Asia, cases have been reported in animals in more than 60 countries.

According to the World Health Organisation, there have been 322 confirmed cases and 195 deaths around the world.

300 poultry farmers die of Bird flu​

http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/artikel.php?ID=129771

Ho, Aug. 29, GNA - At least 312 poultry farmers the world over were reported to have contracted Avian Influenza, the deadly bird flu since it was first detected, Dr J.A. Awuni, a Veterinary Officer has said on Wednesday.

He said 60 per cent of the infected farmers have died and the rest could not be cured completely because they did not adhere to bio-security measures.

Dr Awuni made the disclosure at a one-day workshop for poultry farmers in the Volta region at Ho.

The workshop was organized by the National Poultry Development Board on the theme: "Farm Bio-security in the prevention and control of the highly pathogenic avian influenza: The farmer's perspective". He said the disease was very aggressive and contagious and could survive up to four days at 22 degrees Celsius, 35 days at four degrees Celsius in poultry manure, 30 days at zero degree Celsius in water and 23 days in carcasses at room temperature.

Dr Awuni said there was no potent vaccine currently available for the disease and advised poultry farmers to put measures in place to prevent it from getting into their farms.

He said some of the recommended measures were fencing of farms, separation of poultry and premises from sources of infection, restricting the movement of people and vehicles in and out of susceptible areas and not accepting back to the farm live poultry taken out for sale.

Mr Keneth Quartey, Managing Director of Sydals Farms Limited, advised farmers to step up surveillance and report promptly any detection of the disease to prevent its spread. He told them that government do not pay for birds that died of the disease but rather those destroyed by the authorities and advised the farmers not to destroy the affected birds themselves.

Mr Quartey said the authorities could decide to destroy healthy birds that were within what he called the "kill zone".

An Avian Influenza H5N1 Virus That Binds to a Human-Type Receptor​

http://jvi.asm.org/cgi/content/abstract/81/18/9950

Prasert Auewarakul,1* Ornpreya Suptawiwat,1 Alita Kongchanagul,1 Chak Sangma,6 Yasuo Suzuki,7 Kumnuan Ungchusak,4 Suda Louisirirotchanakul,1 Hatairat Lerdsamran,1 Phisanu Pooruk,1 Arunee Thitithanyanont,2 Chakrarat Pittayawonganon,4 Chao-Tan Guo,7 Hiroaki Hiramatsu,7 Wipawee Jampangern,3 Supamit Chunsutthiwat,5 and Pilaipan Puthavathana1

Faculty of Medicine, Siriraj Hospital,1 Faculty of Science,2 Faculty of Tropical Medicine,3 Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand; Bureau of Epidemiology,4 Department of Disease Control, Bangkok, Thailand,5 Faculty of Science, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, Thailand,6 College of Life and Health Sciences, Chubu University, Kasugai, Japan7

Received 5 March 2007/ Accepted 18 June 2007

Avian influenza viruses preferentially recognize sialosugar chains terminating in sialic acid-{alpha}2,3-galactose (SA{alpha}2,3Gal), whereas human influenza viruses preferentially recognize SA{alpha}2,6Gal. A conversion to SA{alpha}2,6Gal specificity is believed to be one of the changes required for the introduction of new hemagglutinin (HA) subtypes to the human population, which can lead to pandemics. Avian influenza H5N1 virus is a major threat for the emergence of a pandemic virus.

As of 12 June 2007, the virus has been reported in 45 countries, and 312 human cases with 190 deaths have been confirmed. We describe here substitutions at position 129 and 134 identified in a virus isolated from a fatal human case that could change the receptor-binding preference of HA of H5N1 virus from SA{alpha}2,3Gal to both SA{alpha}2,3Gal and SA{alpha}2,6Gal. Molecular modeling demonstrated that the mutation may stabilize SA{alpha}2,6Gal in its optimal cis conformation in the binding pocket.

The mutation was found in approximately half of the viral sequences directly amplified from a respiratory specimen of the patient. Our data confirm the presence of H5N1 virus with the ability to bind to a human-type receptor in this patient and suggest the selection and expansion of the mutant with human-type receptor specificity in the human host environment.

Financial Services Firms Simulate Flu Pandemic​

http://science.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=07/08/29/1319210

"The U.S. Government is co-sponsoring a three-week exercise that will simulate the impact of a flu pandemic on financial services firms, including their ability to support telecommuters. The exercise is expected to be the largest in U.S. history and will involve more than 1,800 firms. From the article: 'The program will follow a compressed time frame that simulates the impact of a 12-week pandemic wave. Participants will be given information on how many absentee employees they can expect. Companies won't know exactly how hard they will be hit with sick-calls from employees until this data is made available ... In addition, participating firms won't be able to pick and choose the level of workforce reductions they get hit by.'"

IFRC: Bird flu remains a threat worldwide​

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-08/30/content_6630943.htm

2007-08-30 11:27:55

GENEVA, Aug. 29 (Xinhua) -- The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) said here Wednesday that governments and aid agencies should give priority to the "very serious" threat of bird flu.

"We're not hearing as much about avian influenza these days as we used to, but that doesn't mean the threat has disappeared," said the organization in its newly released annual report on the state of avian influenza preparedness, mitigation and response.

The IFRC asked the international community not to let its guard down and become better prepared because the world remains at risk of a human pandemic of bird flu.

In April, 2006, the IFRC launched a global appeal for 1.34 million U.S. dollars to help vulnerable communities meet the threat of bird flu. Since then, the IFRC has taken prevention measures, including information and awareness campaigns targeted at poultry farmers, and the distribution of equipment and hygiene supplies to stop the virus from spreading.

It is estimated that 7.5 million people around the world have so far benefited from these activities. Currently, the IFRC's global appeal mainly pays for bird flu prevention programs in Africa, Asia and Europe.

According to the IFRC, since the end of 2003, more than 60 countries have experienced outbreaks of H5N1 bird flu virus in domestic poultry and wild birds. At least 320 people in 12 countries have been infected and 193 have died.

More avian flu prevention in air travel urged​

http://www.news.gov.hk/en/category/healthandcommunity/070830/txt/070830en05004.htm

Director-General of Civil Aviation Norman Lo has called for a regional push to curb the spread of avian flu and cut its impact on air travel, due to its potential to spark a human pandemic.

Opening the two-day Co-operative Arrangement for Preventing the Spread of Communicable Diseases through Air Travel First Steering Committee Meeting today, Mr Lo said the International Civil Aviation Organisation has initiated the arrangement to co-ordinate the co-operative arrangements among participating jurisdictions and airports to reduce the risk of spreading avian influenza and similar illnesses via air travel.

About 60 delegates from 25 organisations, including the International Civil Aviation Organisation, World Health Organisation, International Air Transport Association and Airports Council International are attending the meeting.

Aviation and medical experts will discuss the implementation of the International Civil Aviation Organisation's guidelines for preventing the spread of communicable disease through air travel and identify effective preventive measures. Delegates will also tour Hong Kong International Airport and see the measures and equipment adopted for preventing the spread of communicable diseases.

Child hospitalized in Bali for suspected bird flu​

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90782/6251753.html

21:20, August 30, 2007

A four-year-old child was admitted to hospital on the Indonesian resort island of Bali after developing bird flu-like symptoms, local press said Thursday.

The child suffered from high fever and breathing problems and neighbors had spotted him playing with dead chickens, reported leading news website Detikcom.

Bird flu has killed two people on the island and 84 at the national level, making Indonesia the worst affected country by the disease.

Planning for a Possible Influenza Pandemic –
A Framework for Planners Preparing to Manage Deaths​

http://www.ukresilience.info/news/manage_deaths_guidance.aspx

30th August 2007

This draft guidance paper 'Planning for a Possible Influenza Pandemic – A Framework for Planners Preparing to Manage Deaths' has been prepared by the Home Office. It sets out proposals on planning for the management of potentially large numbers of deaths during a pandemic influenza outbreak. The draft Framework is aimed at local planners preparing contingency plans for the extraordinary circumstances we understand are possible. This forms part of a suite of sensible contingency planning the Government has underway to prepare for pandemic influenza.

The Home Office are also seeking the views of professionals in the field – both representative organisations and individuals – and of the faith communities on:

* the practicality of the measures proposed;
* whether additional or different measures would be helpful and, if so, what;
* whether additional or different guidance might be helpful; and
* any concerns you may have about the different ways of working it is suggested will be necessary to deal with these extraordinary events.

They are not seeking your views on

* the likelihood of these events occurring;
* the necessity for such planning; nor
* the planning assumptions themselves;

all of which are beyond the scope of this Framework.

HHS Announces $75 Million in Supplemental Funding
to States for Pandemic Flu Preparedness​

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/s...07/0004654436&EDATE=THU+Aug+30+2007,+02:59+PM

WASHINGTON, Aug. 30 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- HHS Secretary Mike
Leavitt today announced that the Department is making available another $75
million to states, territories and four metropolitan areas to help
strengthen their capacity to respond to a pandemic influenza outbreak.

"The additional funding will provide our nation's health care community
with a means to continue planning, training and acquiring needed equipment
for an effective pandemic response," Secretary Leavitt said. "It will also
help keep the momentum we have generated over the past year in this
important public health area."

The supplemental funding will be used to:

-- Establish or enhance stockpiles of critical medical equipment and
supplies;

-- Continue development of plans for maintenance, distribution and
sharing of those resources;

-- Plan for and develop pandemic alternate care sites; and

-- Conduct medical surge exercises.

The one-time pandemic influenza response planning grants will
supplement the $430 million HHS announced on June 28, 2007, to strengthen
the ability of hospitals and other health care facilities to respond to
bioterror attacks, infectious diseases, and natural disasters that may
cause mass casualties. Amounts for each jurisdiction are available at:
http://www.hhs.gov/news/press/2007pres/08/pr20070830a.html.

More information on state and local funding allocations is available at
http://www.pandemicflu.gov/news/allocation.html. More information on
pandemic flu preparedness efforts is online at http://www.pandemicflu.gov.

Note: All HHS press releases, fact sheets and other press materials are
available at http://www.pandemicflu.gov.

Minnesota to get U.S. funds to help gird for flu pandemic​

http://www.startribune.com/462/story/1393462.html

Minnesota will receive an additional $1.3 million in federal funds to help prepare for a potential pandemic flu outbreak, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services said Thursday.

The funding will help the state stockpile medical supplies, develop plans to distribute them, plan alternate medical care sites and conduct exercises on how to help a surge of flu patients.

"This comes at a good time," said Aggie Leitheiser, director of the State Health Department's Office of Emergency Preparedness.

The department is developing procedures for hospitals to use in event of a flu pandemic, and some hospitals will begin exercises next year to practice for an outbreak.

The $1.3 million is the first grant the state has received to help hospitals deal with a possible flu pandemic, Leitheiser said.

Minnesota also has received about $6 million from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for public-health efforts to deal with a flu outbreak and expects another $3 million soon.

The federal funding is part of a larger effort in the past five years to help states prepare for potential bioterrorism, infectious diseases and natural disasters that might cause mass casualties.

Some of that preparation helped sharpen the response when the I-35W bridge collapsed Aug. 1, Leitheiser said.

The grant announced Thursday is part of $75 million being distributed nationally. It supplements $430 million announced two months ago for general disaster preparation, with $12 million coming to Minnesota.

Link to next weeks thread:

HEALTH - 9/1/07-9/7/07|Weekly Bird Flu Thread: WHO confirms 5 human bird flu cases in Vietnam

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=255063