Dow 14,000 and 'The Crash'?

See - http://www.spiritoftruth.org/dow14000.htm

Dow 14,000 and 'The Crash'?

By J. Adams
July 16th, 2007
The Spirit Of Truth Page
http://www.spiritoftruth.org

Today the DJIA reached just below the psychologically significant 14,000 mark:

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/5y/_/_dji

As I have pointed out time and time and time and time again, when the DJIA reverses from key thousand marks it is usually associated with negative historical

shocks.

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- THE HISTORICAL PATTERN OF DOW THOUSAND MARK PSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIERS -

Historically, when the major stock averages, and the DJIA in particularly, reach or trade around psychologically important round numbers like thousand marks,

the stock market may top-out and, failing to hold near or above the mark, sharply reverse course. A remarkable feature of these stock market reversals at

thousand marks in the DJIA is that they are often associated with bad news that follows the market top.

For instance, on September 6th of 2001, the DJIA dropped decisively below the 10,000 mark and the Dow Jones Composite index broke below 3000, THEN September

11th occurred driving the market down sharply.

http://www.spiritoftruth.org/images/5yrdjiachart.gif

Thus, when the DJIA reversed decisively from 10,000 in September of 2001, the breakdown in Western confidence manifested as the literal collapse of a key

symbol of Western financial prowess and American global economic hegemony....the World Trade Center towers in New York City. Likewise, a blow occurred

against the Pentagon in Washington DC, the symbol of American global military hegemony.

There are other major examples of significant negative historical events erupting in conjunction with reversals from key thousand marks in the DJIA.

Right after the DJIA failed at Dow 8000 in late-October of 1997, a mini-crash occurred in association with a financial panic in Asia.

http://www.spiritoftruth.org/images/8000c.gif

In 1997, the Dow reversed from the 7000 mark and the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 1994 up to that point leading to a ten percent market

correction.

http://www.spiritoftruth.org/images/7000c.gif

Likewise, when the Fed hiked interest rates in 1994 precipitating a year-long correction in the stock market, it occurred right after the Dow reversed from

the 4000 mark in late-January of that year.

http://www.spiritoftruth.org/images/4000b.gif

In the summer of 1990, the DJIA reversed from 3000 and THEN Iraq invaded Kuwait, thereby triggering a Persian Gulf crisis and major oil- shock that caused

the world economy to slip into a recession and stock prices to plunge by 25 percent. Notably, the DJIA topped by closing two days in a row at exactly 2999.75

on July 16th and 17th of that year (did not close above 3000 until the following year).

http://www.spiritoftruth.org/images/3000b.gif

Finally, between 1966 and 1982, the DJIA reversed from the "Magic 1000" barrier several times. After each reversal, all kinds of troubles emerged ranging

from OPEC oil embargoes, to the Vietnam War, to Watergate. One of the most notable cases occurred in October of 1973 when the DJIA rose to just below Dow

1000 as the Arabs launched a surprise attack against Israel which, in turn, led to a major East/West confrontation and an Arab oil embargo against the West.

Consequently, the world economy entered a severe contraction and stock prices plunged in the largest market correction up to that time since the Great

Depression.

http://www.spiritoftruth.org/images/1000new_lr.jpg

Given the historical pattern of major stock market reversals from key thousand marks in the DJIA, there is reason to believe that a new reversal from Dow

14000 will be associated with a major decline in stock prices possibly triggered by some sort of historical "shock(s)" like occurred with such breaks in the

past.

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- THE CURRENT JUNCTURE -

It is important to note that, according to long-term cyclical analysis, at the current juncture the stock market may have just reached a "Grand Supercycle

Top" in the DJIA and is now turning down into a Grand Supercycle crash which entails the collapse of Western Civilization. What shape will this collapse

take?

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/3m/_/_dji

That a stock market crash might occur in the weeks or months ahead suggests that something could occur that will upset investor's expectations. In other

words, should a financial panic occur on Wall Street, it will likely be part of a worldwide wave of mass fear. The question is, what will precipitate such a

global panic?

I have been warning for 15 years that the Elliott Wave Grand Supercycle crash, which entails an ultimate upset of the West's high expectations for the

future, will ultimately take the form of World War Three starting with a conflict in the Middle East. This is literally the prophetic "Apocalypse". In

February of 1991, I experienced a prophetic vision detailing how news of the war will begin, i.e., with a special report of a missile attack on Israel

involving weapons of mass destruction (possibly triggered by Israeli and/or U.S. air strikes against Iran and/or Syria?).

From there, events will deteriorate into a full-scale global nuclear war.

http://www.spiritoftruth.org/truth.htm

The PTB can take this market to 50,000 if they want... but they are running out of time.... Mother Nature has plans of its own...

... but forgetting that, reality is creeping into the picture... the game of the NWO coming out of the closet is what you are seeing in the constant Merger&Acquisition game going on on Wall Street... as earnings are pumped up with stock buybacks and inflated assest prices... all of which are those balloons waiting to pop... all the data has been downhill all year.... It has been my experience in life that the market looks 6 months ahead... but they stopped doing that last year as the real estate market started to turn... as the layoff cycle started to increase... as the War in Iraq went ever worse each week... etc....

Why? Why has the game changed? No one in the "Free Trade" pyramid scheme want it to end... so they continue to play along... as the entire game is financial based empire policies of smoke and mirrors... as it used to be called.... a con game... a confidence game with the public's trust... how long will the public believe in this illusion? That's the nature of the entire game... as the entire system is based upon getting people to believe in it... to want to believe in the system the PTB have set up for them... and it is so tempting as well... money and all that can buy... comfort, apparent security, luxory etc... window dressing to maintain control... it's always about control...dominance... and we in the USA are the 'top dog' of this pyramid scheme... getting everyone to play along with us as king... but this game is based in the public's continuing ability to consume... and in the USA, the consumer is pretty much maxed out... in credit and income... as those at the top of this game/pyramid have continued to give all the financial returns to themselves... classic greed, selfishness.... but as Henry Ford demonstrated, in order to increase sales, you have to increase wages... not to those at the top who have only limited desire to consume most products, but to the general public which accounts for ~75% of the marketplace exchange of goods and services... as goes the public, so goes the empire...

And the public hasn't been looking so good.... as they get maxed out on credit with loans based on the continued increase in prices... money supply etc... which leads inevitably to inflation... the question is how will the bubbles burst... how much longer can the illusion last? Until then, the game goes on... like a house of cards waiting to see you pulls out first.... as all the indicators continue heading south... though the market heads in the opposite direction with all their merger activity... as the hidden arm of the PTB comes out of the closet consolidating control.... as in the West, power has always been kept covert... hidden from public view... not like in the East with its overt style of control... in those countries, everyone knows what's going on and why... and they either like it or not.

Currently, it seems that something has gotta give by the end of summer.... as Gen. Pace leaves in September... and the White House looks to expand war to Iran etc... to try and engulf the entire Middle East in negative energy... as that's what empires feed on.... they have to continue expanding lest they starve and die.... if you know your history, you will have learned this lesson... once expansion ends, decay sets in.... as corruption and infighting increases over what remains.

Over the last year or so, our tv talking heads have assured us that the soaring numbers of the stock market are the sole measure of how great our economy is doing.
It seems to me that much of the stocks are way over valued. Their price reflecting market manipulation rather than earnings. For example, Amazon.com has a terrific run up of its stock price, yet the company does not show a profit.
Carlos Ponzi discovered, to his glee, that to keep money and people flowing into his business, investors must constatly be brought into the bottom of his pyramid to keep prices from dropping. But like any Ponzi scheme, the market will collapes
when no more new buyers can be drug into the bottom.
The market and the country is in deep trouble. We do not make the majority of products we used to use and sell. We don't even make most of the products we need ourselves, like the computer screen you are staring at. Bottom line is we have a massive trade imbalance that cannot be changed by doing each others laundry (service economy), or by throwing around stocks, bonds, etc.
Cash is flowing out of the country and it's not coming back in near as fast as it going out. That is a major problem. We are becoming poorer.
When the manipulated market tanks, the true scale of the economic horror which is the product of decades of government interference and corruption will be apparent to all.

There's little doubt that the big investment bank have, in effect, rigged the stock market in recent years. However, as Robert Prechter recently quipped to me, 'the riggers are about to become the riggees'.

What we are looking at now is the phenomenon of collective consciousness in action.

I don't know about the DOW, but the job market is shriveling up like I have never seen. Chicago's Sunday Tribune was pathetic this week. The Suburban papers were even more pathetic.

There is no expansion going on, just money moving around.

Good post, Jay...........Dow 14000 could very well be the turning point for this market........we'll know shortly.

Last Friday, Bill Murphy of the gold site http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/ ran this op-ed I'd submitted there:

Bill,
TPTB, CB's, FedRes, and Cartel would rather us think and accuse them of being stupid and inept, than for too many of us to start getting a clue that they know exactly how their policies have, and are, dooming the dollar, our families wealth, and our current taken-for-granted freedoms.

The highest levels there also know that with that inevitable coming collapse, and when enough people are eventually suffering sufficiently hard/long enough from it, that most people then will also eagerly embrace any new Draconian solutions they then later offer up for supposed relief. BUT, ONLY IF not too many of us had first caught on that their failed policies had caused all that panic, loss & pain to begin with! It's essential, if they are to stay in power afterwards, that they not also be blamed by the public then for that crisis, that we'll know they had actually caused and allowed.

For that reason, I fully expect, before the dollar, economy, and markets really fully implode, to where TPTB and FedRes might begin to get their rightful blame for having caused it all, that we will see instead an 'event' unleashed first with which the media, and eventually even history itself, will then blame for that subsequent (impending regardless) economic/financial/dollar collapse.

Nuke terrorism, severe energy crisis, war, pandemic, something/anything, to which then the public can be pointed to it as 'the real cause' for that 'unexpected' economic/financial/dollar collapse, that we all here knew was coming anyways.

Prep for it (Beans, Bullets, Bullion & Bible) to better avoid being panicked, stampeded, and herded into their later coming 'Draconian solutions' that'll attempt to erode even further our scant remaining wealth and freedoms then.

If any have trouble imagining such extreme evil intent is even possible, understand that that is a common vulnerability of most all good and moral people throughout all of history, as most have had little personal experience with the extreme heights of arrogance and all consuming lust for power that is the hallmark of truly evil people who know no common and decent moral restraints.

"A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them;
the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences." - Proverbs 22:3

Shane Connor
www.ki4u.com

thank you Shane for that last op-ed,

this is exactly what i think as well - TPTB know its a big house of cards waiting to fall.

provide someone else to blame - most likely some variant of moslem terrorists - and then pull the plug.

not saying there arent real moslem terrorists out to cause harm, just saying TPTB will deliberately allow bad things to happen after they sucker the masses out of their last dimes.

then those who have not been paying attention will gladly trade in what little freedoms are left for a National ID card and some food and gas rations.

Historical repeat of 1990?

Historical repeat of 1990?

On July 16th and 17th of 1990, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed at 2999.75 two days in a row. While the index flirted above that psychologically important benchmark around that time, the DJIA didn't close above the mark until the following year. It's what happened in the meantime that's of the utmost curiousity.

On July 17th, Saddam Hussein made a fiery speech, on what was then Iraq's "Revolution Day", threatening Kuwait. A few days later Iraq started massing troops on the Kuwaiti border leading to a 5% reversal in the DJIA. Then, two weeks later, Iraq invaded Kuwait precipitating the Persian Gulf Crisis, a spike in oil prices and a 25% drop in stock prices from the top.



In other words, the reversal from a peak in collective optimism at the psychologically important benchmark of 3000 in the DJIA took the form of a negative historical shock with Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and the international crisis this entailed.

But did Saddam Hussein decide to invade Kuwait because the DJIA closed at 2999.75 two days in a row?

Of course not. So what gives?

This odd occasion in the summer and fall of 1990 could be passed off as a unique coincidence except for the fact that this strange phenomenon has occurred over and over again in U.S. stock market history as overviewed in my article above.

So here we are now with the DJIA flirting above the psychologically important 14,000 mark for the first time in history. Indeed, maybe we are looking at a most profound example of how history repeats itself in that the DJIA rose slightly above 14,000 and then closed at 13,971.55, two tenths of once percent below the critical thousand mark, on July 17th, 2007....exactly 17 years to the day of the same sort of top in the summer of 1990.

The question now becomes....will some sort of negative historical shock come about that upsets investor's expectations and leads to a signficant decline in stock prices and associated collective mood?

It's possible this already started with news after the closing bell today:

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=249215

Again....I'm also paying close attention to the August-October timeframe for a possible crash because of the "astroharmonics" around this time:

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=240816

Although peaking at 14,000 now....with the new moon just before the August planetary alignment....fits what I'd look for. The first "Puetz crash window" opens up next week going into the full moon July 30th that precedes the total lunar eclipse that will occur in late-August.

BUMP

I hope the following post doesn't get this kicked off the main, but it is a very interesting RE/Economic Forecast, which seems to fit right in with everyone's thinking.
----

http://www.stariq.com/Main/Articles/P0007889.HTM

The Real Estate Cycle
by Robert Glover

The price of real estate tends to move in an 18-to-20-year cycle. From one top to the next bottom, as from one bottom to the next top, about 9 or 10 years usually elapses. The Moon’s Nodes move backwards or retrograde in an average 18.6-year cycle around the Zodiac. Most real estate price tops have occurred with the North Node in Taurus and/or moving into late Aries.

The Nodes are points where the Moon’s orbital path intersects with the Sun’s path. The Moon’s Nodes influence mass psychology, which translates economically to ups and downs in interest rates, employment and productivity. A real estate calculation called the Brennan Cycle moves in tandem with the Moon’s Nodes. Where real estate is concerned, the 20-year cycle of Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions is also of interest. Jupiter, the influence of optimism, energizes speculative buying, and cautionary Saturn is associated with land.

From an astrological perspective the expectation is that real estate prices should rise when the North (Jupitarian) Node moves through Cancer, the Sign most associated with Home. The North Node arrived in Cancer in April 2000 and moved into Gemini October 2001, when a bubble in stock prices crashed. The Fed lowered interest rates to stimulate the stock market, which in turn brought a dramatic rise in home buying, creating what is seen now in retrospect as a speculative bubble in real estate.

This latest surge in RE prices peaked in the spring of 2005 when the North Node moved from early Taurus into late Aries. Prior to this latest speculative bubble in real estate prices, history shows tops occurred with the North Node in Taurus or Aries—unless distorted by other planetary cycles, especially those coinciding with wars or depressions.
Through the 1800s, RE price tops were made in 1819, 1837, 1857, 1873 (distorted by the great depression of the 1870s) and 1893. In 1819, the North Node was in Aries; in 1837 moving from Taurus into Gemini; 1857 moving through Aries into Pisces; 1873 and 1893 moving through Taurus into Gemini.

The next top occurred in 1918, 25 years after the top of 1893 with the North Node moving into early Sagittarius. The Federal Reserve System (Fed) was created by Congress in 1913, shifting control of the US monetary system to a group of bankers, and institutionalizing a debt-based money system. Henceforth, the bankers of the Fed sold dollars into circulation. In effect, the government borrows money from the Fed’s bankers and sticks the public and/or taxpayers with the bill at ever-compounding interest.

Another definitive RE cycle top was made on the cusp of the Great Depression 1929. At this time the North Node was again in Taurus and moving into Aries. Through the roughly 40 years of the Great Depression and the aftermath of World War II, real estate prices made no dramatic tops, as the Fed now controlled interest rates. And to curb an expected spike of inflation, the Roosevelt Administration imposed price controls during and after World War II. Construction of new homes boomed through the late 1940s and 1950s. The next definitive RE top in prices came roughly 4 cycles after 1893, or 80 years later in 1973.

Prior to the creation of the Fed in December 1913, interest rates (which drive real estate development and buying) were unregulated. The prime duty of the Fed is to control interest rates. Nevertheless RE prices returned to their correlation with the North Node when calculated over longer periods of time, as evidenced by the most recent top arriving in 2005 with the North Node moving from early Taurus into late Aries, roughly five Lunar Nodal cycles after 1893.

By March 2007, with the Node moving through Pisces, there were plenty of economic indications that RE prices were on a determined downswing. Some “sub-prime” lenders and borrowers were in trouble. The number of building permits issued nationally had plummeted. In suburban Las Vegas, the fastest growing area in the USA, 9,800 of roughly 22,000 homes on the market were empty and desperate home sellers were cutting prices by 45%.

Based on past history, we can expect the downtrend in housing to turn around when the North Node reaches the constellation opposite Cancer, where it usually is when prices rise. That constellation is Capricorn and the North Node is due to enter it in August 2009, 20 years after the last low in 1989.

But don’t rush headlong into the real estate market in 2009 without being aware of two major reasons the RE cycle may again be distorted and its downside extended.

1. Astrologically, Uranus and Pluto will be within orb of a square, with Pluto opposite the US natal cluster of Venus, Jupiter and Sun in Cancer. And Saturn will be moving through Virgo, coming conjunct the US Neptune, which is square the US Mars—a combination that has coincided with stock market crashes historically. Also, in 2009 Pluto and the North Node will conjoin in Capricorn. The combined effect of these astrological patterns bodes ill for the overall economy, of which the housing industry is a major part.

2. Because the recent housing price bubble was extended and taken to new record highs, its deflation may be extended. We may experience a crash of the dollar and a subsequent spike in inflation, causing the Fed to raise interest rates dramatically. Also waiting in the wings is the weather-related effects of global warming, expected to bring catastrophic storms, Hurricane Katrina being a hint.

If the dollar crashes or continues its slide down against other world currencies, foreign investment in US assets (a major stimulus to the most recent housing bubble) will be withdrawn, worsening the situation by exacerbating US debt—federal, corporate and personal. The world’s monetary system, now based on the dollar, is likely to go through a wrenching change, mainly because US total debt is approaching the point where it will be un-repayable, which in turn could lead to a change in the existing Fed-dominated, debt-based monetary system.

When Congress created the Fed in 1913 and institutionalized a debt-based money system, it meant that, instead of the federal government lending money into the system at no interest, bankers lend money into the system at ever-compounding interest. In turn, this creates a gradual but snowballing rise of inflation, as the money to pay the interest must be “found,” and the primary “finder of interest” is inflation, called “the hidden tax.” What $100 bought in 1913 now costs around $2,000.

By March 2007, when the downturn in RE prices became undeniable, the North Node was moving through the middle of Pisces. The North Node will enter Capricorn in August 2009, signaling the bottom of this down cycle, and move into Sagittarius in March 2011, signaling an expected rise in RE prices. But other factors in the overall economy—especially the debt-based US monetary system, snowballing inflation and the likelihood that the dollar will continue to slide or crash—can be expected to distort the RE cycle this time.

During the RE bubble that followed the stock market crash of 2000-2001, a lot of investment money went into real estate, and prices continued to rise after the North Node went into Gemini. As a consequence of the boom and the Fed’s holding interest rates down, the housing bubble was extended beyond the average cyclical top. As a consequence of that extension, the RE price bottoms may be extended beyond 2011.

The longer cycles of the outermost planets overwhelm shorter cyclical indicators to concur with well-defined economic turning points. And we are moving toward one that can be expected to bring the most difficult decade since the USA was founded in 1776: Pluto moving though Capricorn, a Uranus-Pluto square lasting from 2008 to 2019, forming a grand cross with the natal US Sun-Saturn square. In August 2009, Pluto will conjoin the North Node in Capricorn, with both opposite the USA’s natal Jupiter and Venus. This combination can be expected to distort the RE cycle, and more importantly, bring an atmosphere conducive to changing some basic economic assumptions. This difficult period could be a blessing in disguise.

Our present economy is based on medieval assumptions, and we have moved into a period when democracy is on the rise, so we are looking at a clash between two philosophical forces: “traditional” medieval beliefs (an unproductive ownership class dominant) and the modern move toward more and purer democracy. Currently most of the world’s wealth is owned by less than 1 percent of the world’s population.

We are approaching a time of transformations as huge as those experienced by Native Americans after the arrival of Columbus, and then during the years leading up to and through the American and French Revolutions, when Pluto was where it will be again during the second decade of the 21st Century.

As I said, it fits right in with what the economic guys on this forum keep trying to tell us. I'm though get so confused - surely the only thing in our future can't just be buying preps, can it? Is there nothing to put our money into (PM's getting too expensive now) that can help the average Joe & Jane at least come out a little on top in the future?

Kalliope said:

- surely the only thing in our future can't just be buying preps, can it? Is there nothing to put our money into (PM's getting too expensive now) that can help the average Joe & Jane at least come out a little on top in the future?

Click to expand...

If you believe the PM's have any upside left, as I most assuredly do, then they are not too expensive for anyone after, of course, first securing one's family preps.

Silver, for instance, has a great shot at doubling quicker and more often than gold and should not, IMO, be overlooked by 'the average Joe & Jane'. I don't know of any other traditional investment, that most average folks are currently into, with as much potential upside while also having minimum risk of dollar devaluations eroding their principle, and ultimate buying power once they cash it in.

- Shane

The DJIA closed above 14,000 today



The DJIA closed above 14,000 today, closing at 14000.41.

Google then announced poor earnings, so at least at the open tomorrow there will likely be a significant sell-off.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070719/earns_google.html?.v=2

Google is down nearly 8% in after hours trading:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GOOG

If today proves to be the all-time closing high for some time to come and there is a 10%+ reversal, we will have another significant example of the historical phenomenon I've highlighted in the article above. We could trade more above 14K before a significant reversal below the psychologically important benchmark occurs, but we are at a remarkable historical parallel at the current juncture that warrants keen observation.

What is likely, according to the historical pattern, is that some sort of major negative historical shock(s) lies dead ahead. It could be an Arab/Israeli War (akin to the DJIA reversal from 1000 in October 1973), another 9/11-scale terrorist attack (akin to the DJIA reversal from 10000 in September 2001) or something like Iraq's invasion of Kuwait (precisely coincided with the reversal from Dow 3000 in 1990).

The fact that there is also a Hindenburg Omen in effect and a Puetz lunar eclipse crash window opens as early as next week in association with the July 30th full moon all powerfully suggests a sharp reversal from Dow 14000 will occur soon and be of historical importance.

Ok, So Sorry I am not convinced yet.

George Ure had been predicting the next depression since 1995.

I use to follow the Dow on a daily, minute by minute basis when it was open. That is the Avid in my handle, it was for Avid Traders. They use to have a free site where folks could chat about the market, particularly when it was open. It was lots of fun. I was mostly a bear then, even got hooked up with FiendBear (I leave it to the reader to find his site) and would swap worries over beer at the local pub.

I really do not track the Dow anywhere as close as I use to. I am not Mr. MoneyBags, but I have learned that there is much more to investing than just following the DOW. I remember the Nikkie popping up over 30K and falling to under 10K. Japan just kept going.

I was in Argentina last year... the news reports had them as total toast. That is not what I found.. Folks had jobs, and while not completely happy, they were fed, clothed and ok.

I think it will take the nukes in 7 cities to really knock the US econ off the growth chart (at least in some area's). Baring that, things such as inflation will continue to drive the stock market up. Plenty of folks who "invested" in sub prime debt will take a bath. Sorry. But like the S&L crisis it will NOT effect every US investor.

I tried to get in on the S&L bail out, but my paltry $ for investing was not anywhere close to being able to place a bet. Some really rich folks got way richer on that deal... and the peons got soaked. I know folks that had more than the $100K in accounts at S&L's that never got their money back. But did that stop the music? Nope.... the Dow continued up.

I find it fun to watch the TB2K PermaBears. I once was one my self. I have learned that with out a die off, there is a need for housing, jobs, and investing. I am now somewhere in between... I can accept that the doomers may have a point, but I can not in all fairness invest per their forecasts. I did that for many years and got skunked.

Dad always told me you can loose as much in the bond market as in the stock market... It took me many years to understand that. What meager funds I have I will try to spread over as many markets as I can, because I am clueless as to what the future will bring.

HeliumAvid

AvidTrader forum and FiendBear! I was there too!

I'm at heart an Elliott Waver and Bob Prechter and I have been going back and forth with each other since 1987 (BTW, he just put out the call to sell short).

Us permabears are fundamentally realists. We could never have foreseen just how big the bubble would get before popping. Each minor deflation was overcome by central banks and governments that will apparently endlessly seek to reflate the system. But the bigger the bubble gets, the greater the odds that a systemic crisis will be triggered that will overwhelm the authorities. Derivatives, hedge funds, the mortgage-backed security market and the real estate bubble were the latest stage of the prolonged speculative mania.

Is Dow 14K the end point? You never know. But if it is, then all hell is about to break loose.

shane said:

If you believe the PM's have any upside left, as I most assuredly do, then they are not too expensive for anyone after, of course, first securing one's family preps.

Silver, for instance, has a great shot at doubling quicker and more often than gold and should not, IMO, be overlooked by 'the average Joe & Jane'. I don't know of any other traditional investment, that most average folks are currently into, with as much potential upside while also having minimum risk of dollar devaluations eroding their principle, and ultimate buying power once they cash it in.

- Shane

Click to expand...

Well stated Shane. The purchase of "junk silver" is still easy, affordable and plentiful. The sheep have not caught on to that angle yet and I'm still finding 50 cent pieces in "fair" condition for under $5.00 (90% silver).

You just have to go hunt and peck for them....

As noted above, on July 17th 1990, as the DJIA closed at 2999.75 for the second day in a row (didn't close above 3000 until 1991), Saddam Hussein made a speech threatening Kuwait. Iraq then massed troops on Kuwait and invaded causing the Persian Gulf Crisis and a 25% drop in the DJIA from the psychologically important 3000 mark.

Today the Dow closed at 14000.41:



And there was a meeting in Damascus of Syrian President Bashar Assad and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at which the leader of Iran declared that this will be a "hot" summer:

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=249491

And the enemies of Syria and Iran will get "burned":

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=249438

History appears to be repeating itself in a blatant, cyclical fashion.

I think our Creator is trying to make a point.

http://www.spiritoftruth.org/truth.htm

Silver, for instance, has a great shot at doubling quicker and more often than gold and should not, IMO, be overlooked by 'the average Joe & Jane'.

Click to expand...

Wouldn't silver be 'appropriated' along with gold in a crisis?

Invest in tin...... and I am serious.

Today could be, BLACK FRIDAY........who knows...........things look mighty shaky..........

Move over Zimbobwe.

Ed

Nothing crashes from its peak

It jogs down and then drifts down and then goes over the edge into a crash

JohnGaltfla said:

Well stated Shane. The purchase of "junk silver" is still easy, affordable and plentiful. The sheep have not caught on to that angle yet and I'm still finding 50 cent pieces in "fair" condition for under $5.00 (90% silver).

You just have to go hunt and peck for them....

Click to expand...

Do ya'll go to coin shops or online? I bought quarters & dimes online but shipping kinda negates any real value. DH has been transferred to a little ol' southern town and I have not found any coin shops, several pawn though. We are selling our house in Dallas and have moved into some apts. I do not receiving packages of coins here. Might have them sent to my mom's...

So that's it huh - silver & preps? I find it amusing that some of these horribly greedy people first pushed the creative mortgages so they could make money off the debt and are now getting burned. They just might have to live like we do and will be mightly surprised. It's amazing how much Starbucks you cannot buy on a $10 per hour job. Plus having to live with the laws they helped to write to keep the average Joe working longer...surprise, surprise, surprise.

bump

doctor_fungcool said:

Today could be, BLACK FRIDAY........who knows...........things look mighty shaky..........

Click to expand...

Possible, as it's certainly long overdue, but even if not a full-blown meltdown today, I'm always especially alert for imminent new terrorism, ME war, and/or oil crisis over the weekend, when we are seeing end-of-week dire dollar...



...and stock market weakness coupled with gold/silver/oil new found strength. Which we are.

But, that's just me...

- Shane

P.S. - And, again, that's largely because I expect an 'event' to be unleashed first, before full-blown market crisis is seen/felt by all, to then blame that inevitable monetary/economic/financial collapse upon, as I'd detailed here recently in post #7 of this same thread.

shane said:

Possible, as it's certainly long overdue, but even if not a full-blown meltdown today, I'm always especially alert for imminent new terrorism, ME war, and/or oil crisis over the weekend, when we are seeing end-of-week dire dollar and stock market weakness coupled with gold/silver/oil new found strength. Which we are.

But, that's just me...

- Shane

P.S. - And, again, I expect an 'event' to be unleashed first, before full-blown market crisis is seen/felt by all, to then blame that inevitable monetary/economic/financial collapse upon, as I'd detailed here recently in post #7 of this same thread.

Click to expand...

Shane, I fully agree wth your scenario.

DJIA 13,871.97 -128.44 -0.92%
NASDAQ 2,693.83 -26.21 -0.96%
S&P 500 1,541.13 -11.95 -0.77%

Good News

Stocks are down
Gas is up
Wages are down
Cost of living is up
Saving is down
Food prices are up
Insurance is up
Decent healthcare is down
Consumer confidence is down
Crime is up

Yup, good news all around..Market should be up

Dow and Nas down.......Nas -32......Dow 147.......

Oil Prices Up After Violence in Nigeria
Friday July 20, 10:00 am ET
By George Jahn, Associated Press Writer
Oil Prices Climb Above $76 a Barrel After News of New Violence in Oil-Rich Nigeria


VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- Oil prices rose Friday after news of new violence in southern Nigeria, where police said a Lebanese businessman was shot dead in his home in an apparent kidnapping attempt.
Kidnappings and oil rig attacks have become common in the southern river delta region of Africa's largest crude producer, where oil giants like Royal Dutch Shell PLC, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Eni SpA have large operations. The assailants range from militants demanding political concessions to criminal gangs seeking ransoms.

Lotsa theories as to the market drop.
The simplest one and most likely is profit taking. The pro traders know that most wannabe traders will enter naked stops at the previous 1,2 or 3 days lows.The pro will hedge their position by taking a delta neutral, equity straddle to lock in his profits.This short position floods the market with sell orders, driving the market down. They will further exacerbate this by pulling their bid to buy orders causing a price tier scarcity,again driving the markets lower.
Wednesday's low was around 13,850. Look for the bounce up around there.
Markets are taken up for an exit point and taken down for an entry point.

Remember people, that the DOW does NOT have anything to do with America these days. As was admitted on a nooz program the other night, the DOW is doing well because the companies that make it up are multinationals, and the "growth" fueling the rise is in the "global economy" and not in the US. So we could have a total economic meltdown here, and the DOW would be fine. The problem is that Joe Sixpack ONLY looks at the DOW as an indicator of US economic health. But since that index no longer applies to US companies (so to speak), the sheeple are being mislead. Purposely IMO.

The DOW's main beauty is that it gives a good "tell" into sector rotation.
Know how to read it and make money.

Dennis Is Right

Yes, Dennis I believe you're right on.
If you look at the Dow 30 stocks you will find 18 are corporations located in China and places other than the US. 15 of those companies have provided the majority of the recent stock surge. Other stocks in the Dow which have corporate locations in the US are the stocks losing ground.
It sure seems as is the DOW is a indicator of global economics rather than of the US economy.

The key point is the the DJIA is the most widely watched stock market index. The stock market, in turn, is a widely watched barometer of U.S. economic health and the future outlook of investors.

My concern is with mass psychology and social mood.

Elliott Wavers like myself and Bob Prechter are practitioners of "Socionomics", which is akin to social psychology with a focus on the importance of using charts of major market indices in monitoring rising and falling collective mood over time. We believe there are underlying cycles over time in mass mood that are reflected in rising and falling stock prices, i.e., bull and bear markets, and that these cycles occur on a wide range of scales.

One of the largest cycles Elliott Wave analysts believe exists is the "Grand Supercycle" which we think has been topping in recent years. It is possible that reaching Dow 14000 was the final part of the Grand Supercycle top. If this is the case, then the largest bear market in U.S. history is getting underway which, for all intents and purposes, entails the collapse of Western Civilization as we know it.

It was while seeking to anticipate what might cause the "Grand Supercycle crash" that I believe God offered me a supernatural hint that could very well be relevant to the current juncture:

http://www.spiritoftruth.org/truth.htm

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^DJI&t=1d
***********************QUOTE*****************

Lotsa theories as to the market drop.
The simplest one and most likely is profit taking. The pro traders know that most wannabe traders will enter naked stops at the previous 1,2 or 3 days lows.The pro will hedge their position by taking a delta neutral, equity straddle to lock in his profits.This short position floods the market with sell orders, driving the market down. They will further exacerbate this by pulling their bid to buy orders causing a price tier scarcity,again driving the markets lower.
Wednesday's low was around 13,850. Look for the bounce up around there.
Markets are taken up for an exit point and taken down for an entry point.

********************END QUOTE*****************

DARN! Must be getting old,Off by over a point.
Let's see if Monday is an up day.Stop raiders may take it down to 13,775 or so to get bargains before taking it up.

PUETZ CRASH WINDOW OPENS

PUETZ CRASH WINDOW OPENS

Update: July 24th, 2007

The DJIA sank 226 points today as a dramatic reversal from the psychologically important 14000 benchmark has gotten underway. Since the DJIA closed at 14000.41 on July 19th, the index has fallen almost 300 points.



On top of a Hindenburg Omen cluster suggesting a crash may be near, we are also now entering a Puetz stock market crash window.

Steve Puetz discovered that almost all of the largest stock market crashes in history have occurred around the time of a lunar eclipse.

Consider the following excerpt from Peter Eliades online "Current Observations":

We seldom use much newsletter space for the ideas of others, but the theories we are about to present fit together so well, we believe you will find them as interesting as we do. The two researchers are Steve Puetz (pronounced "pits") and Chris Carolan. Chris just won the 1998 Charles H. Dow Award for his original research and the complete article is offered on his website at http://www.calendarresearch.com . The research by Puetz was first noted in our October 10, 1995 newsletter. Here is what we wrote:

"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."

". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."

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As for the current juncture, there is a solar eclipse on September 11th that will be preceded by a total lunar eclipse on August 28th. The full moon on July 30th will be the full moon six weeks before the 9/11 solar eclipse. Thus, a crash window as defined by Puetz is in effect from July 24th to August 2nd. The coincidence of this crash window in the wake of the DJIA reversing from the psychologically important 14000 level along with a Hindenburg Omen cluster at the top strongly suggests the possibility of a significant financial panic that may have started with today's sell-off.

Im curious....other than pure coincidence, what would the cycle of the moon have anything to do with the numbers and the markets?

waterman said:

Im curious....other than pure coincidence, what would the cycle of the moon have anything to do with the numbers and the markets?

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"Animal Spirits"....i.e., crowd psychology is looney. It is the perfect antithesis of the Nobel Prize-winning Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) at the heart of modern market theories in finance and economics. In the aggregate, collective expectations of greed and fear driven investors swing between insane extremes of optimism and pessimism.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rational_expectations

Also please note that astroharmonics, combined with the seasonality of mass mood, suggest greater concern in the August to October timeframe.

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=240816

waterman said:

Im curious....other than pure coincidence, what would the cycle of the moon have anything to do with the numbers and the markets?

Click to expand...

Many market corrections happen near a full moon timeframe.....two days before......two days after, have in the past affected market psychology.
Henry Weingarden and Arch Crawford use celestial signals to time the markets.
Crawford is a great technical analyst in his own right......Peter Elilides is another market timer...he uses market cycles......Elidies claims that there will be a huge crash in October.........with the selloff starting in the August/September timeframe.
After the selloff, he hints at a longterm depression, lasting for more then a few years.


"Lunar Cycle Effect/ Stock Market Returns
http://www.intentblog.com/archives/2007/01/lunar_cycle_eff.html


"There are two phases of the moon, the new moon, and the full moon. The full moon period is the day of the full moon and the seven days before it and after it, the period when the moon is most visible in the sky, when people are most physically and materially based, or tuned into the 1% world, which makes them very pessimistic. By contrast, the New moon weeks (when the moon is in effect “hidden”) are filled with positive energy and spirituality. The phases of the moon represent when people are generally more optimistic or pessimistic, and this, coupled with the fact that the universe itself affects us, as the Kabala teaches, affects our decisions and the outcomes of our decisions. "


To give a very modern example of how true this theory is, let’s look at the University of Michigan Business School study by Ilia Dichev and Troy Janes of 100 years of the stock market trends as they relate to the lunar phases. According to this study, “Returns in the 15 days around New Moon dates are about double the returns in the 15 days around full moon dates. This pattern of returns is pervasive: We find it for all major U.S stock indexes over the past 100 years and for nearly all major stock indexes of 24 other countries over the last 30 years.” What this means is that if we are in tune to how the energies of the universe affect our tendencies to be positive or negative, reactive or proactive, on any given day in the lunar cycle, we could literally change our fortunes, and change our lives. There are actually some kabalists who go down to the ocean every morning, tune into the energy of the ocean and can then predict with incredible accuracy what the stock market will do that day. Some of these people have literally made millions with this technique.

But although these studies are undeniable, people discredit them, unable or unwilling to focus beyond the 1% world they are living in. As we will learn together, being open to this knowledge will lead to greater and greater wealth, literal and spiritual.