07/08-13 | Weekly BF: Bird flu pandemic inevitable, says EU

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
Bird flu pandemic inevitable, says EU

07/07/2006 - 11:45:42 AM

European Union experts today said a global influenza pandemic that could kill millions remains inevitable, although the immediate threat to human health from bird flu in Europe remained low.

“It’s when and not if,” Robert Madelin, director general of the EU’s Health and Consumer Protection department, said in Brussels.

Madelin cited scientists’ predictions suggesting a pandemic could kill 2-7 million people worldwide, 10 times the death rate from regular flu.

However, he warned forecasting was very difficult and current predictions could be “wildly wrong”.

The head of the EU’s centre for disease control said efforts to contain outbreaks of the deadly H5N1 strain among domestic poultry in Europe had been successful.

“H5N1 is a very low risk to public health in the European Union,” said Zsuzsanna Jakab.

http://www.eecho.ie/news/bstory.asp?j=140035350&p=y4xx35875&n=140035952

:vik:
 

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
Spain

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=202541&page=2 Post #56

JPD said:
H5N1 Confirmed in Spain

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07070601/H5N1_Spain.html

Recombinomics Commentary
July 7, 2006

SPANISH state radio said today the country's first case of H5N1 bird flu had been confirmed in a great crested grebe in the city of Vitoria…….

A great crested grebe is a migratory waterbird.

Spanish national radio said the dead bird had been found about six weeks ago near the northern city of Vitoria.

The above comments indicate that the enhanced surveillance in Europe has a major political component. The delay of six weeks in the confirmation of the H5N1 raises serious transparency issues. This report follows yesterday's Nature report on distinct H5N1 strains in Lagos, Nigeria, which is in the East Atlantic Flyway (EAF).

The city of Victoria is in the EAF, as is Denmark, which also reported H5N1 on a farm yesterday. The EAF includes northeastern Canada, which then links to the East Americas Flyway, which includes Prince Edward Island. H5 was confirmed in a dead goose on PEI last month, but the sample had degraded sometime between the death of the goose on June 5 and shipment to Winnipeg almost two weeks later.

H5N1 bird flu is in migratory birds and spreading along well established flyways.

Transparent and timely reporting by surveillance sites along these pathways remain areas of concern.

H5N1 does not read press releases.
 

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
Spain

7 Jul 2006 13:09 GMT DJ

EU Confirms Bird Flu Infected Wild Duck In North Spain


BRUSSELS (Dow Jones)-- A lethal strain of the bird flu virus has been found in a wild duck in northern Spain's Basque Country, the European Commission confirmed Friday.

Spain has imposed European safety standards within a 10-kilometer radius of where the bird was found, the commission said in a statement.

Spanish tests confirmed the lethal virus, and samples will now be tested by the E.U.'s central laboratory in Weybridge, U.K.

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

July 07, 2006 09:09 ET (13:09 GMT)

http://framehosting.dowjonesnews.com/sample/samplestory.asp?StoryID=2006070713420002&Take=3

:vik:
 

New Freedom

Veteran Member
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.asp?feed=AP&Date=20060707&ID=5851475


NY Buying 1 Million Tamiflu Treatments


Associated Press
All Associated Press News

ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) - New York is spending about $23 million to stockpile antiviral medications in the event of a pandemic flu outbreak in the coming years.

Rob Kenny, a spokesman for the New York State Health Department said the state plans to buy more than 1 million Tamiflu treatment courses and another 227,000 courses of Relenza. New York, a state of more than 19 million people, has 60,000 Tamiflu treatment courses on hand already.


As part of its pandemic preparations, the federal government is stocking up on antivirals, which can reduce the symptoms associated with influenza. The Bush administration's plan is for the federal government to buy enough antivirals to treat 44 million people.

However, states can buy more if they want. The federal government is negotiating a price with Roche Corp., which makes Tamiflu, and will pay a quarter of the costs, up to a prescribed amount for each state. In all, states could use the subsidy to buy antivirals for an additional 31 million people.

A flu virus circulating among birds, the H5N1 virus, has ravaged poultry stocks in Asia since 2003 and recently spread to Europe through migratory birds. Health authorities fear the disease could mutate into a form that spreads from person-to-person, sparking a flu pandemic that could kill millions.

A total of 229 cases in humans, mostly in Asia, have been reported so far, leading to 131 deaths, according to the World Health Organization.

"With the developments in other parts of the world, a pandemic is certainly possible," Kenny said. "This is being done for precautionary reasons."

The state is spending about $18 million on Tamiflu and $5 million on Relenza.

Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University's Joseph L. Mailman School of Public Health, said such precautions are only worthwhile as part of a larger strategy.

"Tamiflu is not a complete answer by any stretch of the imagination," he said. "It's really much more concerning to me that our public health and hospital system is not ready to take care of a large number of patients."

A national report by the American College of Emergency Physicians in January found much of the nation wasn't prepared for the bird flu. New York state received an overall C+ grade for its emergency care system, slightly better than the C- rating given to the nation as a whole.

In February, the state released an emergency plan for any pandemic in New York such as bird flu that would include closing of schools and businesses and speedy distribution of vaccines. The public would also be advised to stockpile two weeks of food and water rations if the prospect of a pandemic seemed likely. The measures, part of the state's first flu pandemic plan, would largely be at the discretion of local health agencies.

While the state is spending a total of $29 million to prepare for a possible pandemic, the amount really needed is five to 10 times that amount, Redlener said.

___
 

New Freedom

Veteran Member
:dot5: Definate DOT ! :dot5:


http://jakarta.usembassy.gov/news/warden070306.html


U.S. Embassy Jakarta
U.S. Consulate General Surabaya

Warden Message


The US Embassy recognizes that US citizen residing in Indonesia and US businesses with operations are concerned with the news reports regarding clusters of human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) virus infection in North Sumatra and East Java provinces. While cases of H5N1 virus infection of humans remain extremely rare, the Embassy is providing the following information to help U.S. citizens make informed decisions concerning the health of their families and employees.

Avian influenza A (H5N1) is endemic among poultry in Indonesia and poultry outbreaks have been reported in 27 of Indonesia's 33 provinces. As of late June 2006, Indonesian authorities have reported 51 confirmed human H5N1 cases with 39 deaths caused by H5N1 virus infection since June 2005; of these cases, 34 cases and 28 deaths have occurred in 2006.

Indonesian health authorities, assisted by experts from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and World Health Organization (WHO) reference laboratories, have conducted genetic analyses of the H5N1 viruses isolated from cases in Indonesia, including family clusters, and have not found any significant changes that would make H5N1 viruses more easily transmitted among humans. The WHO concluded that limited, non-sustained human-to-human transmission of the virus most likely occurred between members of a family in North Sumatra in May. This cluster follows a few other clusters that have occurred in Indonesia and other countries. However, there is no evidence of any widespread, efficient, or sustained human-to-human transmission of H5N1 virus in Indonesia or globally.

The Embassy encourages all Americans traveling to or living in Indonesia to monitor local news reports about avian influenza outbreaks and to consult with their health care providers about prevention of avian influenza and steps to take in case of possible exposure to avian influenza.

It is important to avoid contact with sick or dead poultry. This is particularly critical for children. Most human cases of H5N1 have occurred through direct contact with sick or dead poultry.

The Embassy further encourages Americans resident in Indonesia to be vigilant about food preparation and handling when cooking chicken or eggs and to wash hands after touching uncooked poultry or poultry products. Attached to this message is a separate list of food preparation guidelines in both English and Indonesian.

Americans can obtain updated information on avian influenza, including country specific information about Indonesia and other Asian countries, from the websites listed below. Links to these websites, as well as regularly updated Q's and A's about avian influenza, are also available on the Embassy's website at <http://jakarta.usembassy.gov .

Websites for more information:
WHO outbreak updates: http://www.who.int/csr/don/en
CDC avian influenza information: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/index.htm
CDC information for businesses: http://www.cdc.gov/business/
HFIS pandemic influenza information: www.pandemicflu.gov
Pandemic information for businesses: http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/tab4.html

Avian Flu Food Hygiene Tips, October 2005

Food Hygiene

* Separate raw meat from cooked or ready-to-eat foods. Do not use the same chopping board or the same knife for preparing raw meat and cooked or ready-to-eat food.
* Do not handle either raw or cooked foods without washing your hands in between.
* Do not place cooked meat back on the same plate or surface it was on before it was cooked.
* All foods from poultry, including eggs and poultry blood, should be cooked thoroughly. Egg yolks should not be runny or liquid. Because influenza viruses are destroyed by heat, the cooking temperature for poultry meat should reach 70°C (158° F).
* Wash egg shells in soapy water before handling and cooking, and wash your hands afterwards.
* Do not use raw or soft-boiled eggs in foods that will not be cooked.
* After handling raw poultry or eggs, wash your hands and all surfaces and utensils thoroughly with soap and water. ============================================
 

New Freedom

Veteran Member
http://www.theolympian.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060708/OPINION03/607080351/1005/OPINION


Are Americans ready for an avian influenza outbreak?


:dot5: ORLANDO - As I boarded a plane in Istanbul some weeks ago, a voice over the intercom announced that chicken would not be served on the flight to New York just as a safety precaution in light of avian influenza concerns. Instead, passengers would receive a pasta dish.:dot5:

Even though I knew from my research that properly cooked chicken poses no risk, I swallowed hard. After all, I had eaten chicken at least twice a day during my stay. The kebabs, in particular, defy resistance.

But then I thought, better to err on the side of caution. Given all of the uncertainties surrounding avian influenza and evidence of apparent human-to-human transmissions, however small, I would rather see serious precautions taken. My participation in a subsequent avian influenza conference and other discussions dealing with the issue only reinforced that belief.

So, I was disturbed to read a recent national survey that showed two-thirds of American businesses are not prepared for a human influenza pandemic. I strongly suspect that the problem is even worse among individuals. That has to change.

As a Florida resident, I have grown accustomed to setting aside a supply of food, medicine and other necessities to hold out during the week or two of limited access to such goods that a hurricane could impose at any time. But the threat of a global human influenza pandemic is something else altogether, with the prospect of restricted or no availability of many goods for several weeks or months. Moreover, the periods of deprivation could come in waves, with brief respites in between, for a year or longer.

Realistically, then, how should people prepare?

The U.S. government (www.pandemicflu.gov) recommends practical steps for individuals and families. It advises to plan for a pandemic by setting aside a two-week supply of food, especially nonperishables such as canned foods, cereals, crackers, water and juices. It further advises obtaining an extra supply of prescription medicines, and securing a store of nonprescription drugs and other health and emergency supplies, including soap, hand wash, thermometers, vitamins, flashlights, batteries, portable radios, manual can openers, garbage bags and tissue paper.

Finally, it encourages strategizing with family members; getting involved in community planning; frequent hand-washing; covering coughs and sneezes with tissues; and staying away from those who are ill.

Beyond that, U.S. officials and those in other countries and at international organizations have undertaken a number of initiatives to monitor and provide early warnings about avian influenza developments.

Some critics do not believe that governments are doing enough and maintain that in the event of a human influenza pandemic, people should not count on much help beyond what they provide for themselves. What would that entail? A 30-day supply of essential goods? A 60-day supply? A 90-day supply? And, if so, how can those of limited financial means hope to take care of themselves?

Still other critics tend to dismiss the idea of a human influenza pandemic as improbable, suggesting that governments have simply come up with another gimmick to distract people from "real" issues.

I am interested in what readers have to say about the avian influenza issue and the threat of a human influenza pandemic. Is it real? Is it hype? Do you care? Are you prepared? If so, how have you prepared? Do you have faith in what the U.S. government and others are doing to monitor the problem?

Kindly direct your thoughts, observations and strategies to me at jbersia@orlandosentinel.com, and I will summarize the responses in a future column on avian influenza.
 

New Freedom

Veteran Member
http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/ap_alaska/story/7937112p-7830743c.html




Alaska puts in early order for bird flu medicines

By MARY PEMBERTON, Associated Press Writer

Published: July 6, 2006
Last Modified: July 6, 2006 at 05:00 PM

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) - Alaska is taking an aggressive stance against a possible outbreak of deadly human bird flu by placing its order early for medicines intended to slow the spread of a pandemic.

State officials will eventually order enough antiviral doses to cover about a fourth of Alaska residents. Officials are being bold since the state is a crossroads for migratory birds, which could be carrying the virus here from other parts of the world.


Currently, there is no vaccine to protect humans from H5N1 avian influenza - the deadly form of bird flu. If there is an outbreak, the government is relying on antivirals such as Tamiflu and Relenza to help slow its spread.

The virus, which commonly affects birds but has gone from birds to humans in a number of countries, has killed at least 130 people worldwide since it began showing up in Asian poultry stocks in late 2003. While it is now difficult for humans to catch, the fear is that bird flu could mutate into a form that could pass easily from human to human, sparking a human pandemic.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is allocating antivirals - Tamiflu and Relenza, a flu drug that can be inhaled - based on each state's population.

The federal government is stockpiling enough antivirals this year to treat 20 million people. It plans to order another 24 million treatment courses for fiscal year 2007. An additional 31 million treatment courses will be available for states to purchase, according to the federal Department of Health and Human Services.

Alaska, with a population of about 650,000, is slated initially to get enough antivirals to treat 43,913 people. Another 52,695 treatment courses will be made available in fiscal year 2007. The federal government has made another 68,065 treatment courses available for Alaska to purchase. The total number of treatment courses available to Alaska is 164,673.

The first order of antivirals are expected to be available by the end of next March at the earliest. The state expects to place its order this week, Dr. Richard Mandsager, director of the state Division of Public Health, said Wednesday.

State health officials want to make sure, given the state's remoteness, that it has as much medicine on hand as possible if there is an outbreak. Antivirals should be given in about the first 12 hours to make a real difference, Mandsager said.

Alaska plans to take advantage of the option to buy some doses with a 25 percent federal subsidy so that one-quarter of the state's population would be provided with antivirals if there was an outbreak, Mandsager said.

"We plan to purchase the whole allotment," he said.

Mandsager said the initial purchase request will be for 80 percent Tamiflu and 20 percent Relenza.

"We are the only state that is placing an order right now in the Northwest," he said.

If there was a pandemic this fiscal year in Alaska, the state clearly would be short, Mandsager said. Next year looks better, he said.

"If we get to 2007, we will be on our road of having a reasonable supply," Mandsager said.

The state already has $552,000 to buy the drugs. The legislature will have to approve another $600,000 to buy the full allotment. Mandsager said he expected lawmakers to go along with the request.

The state has a small stash of 500 treatment courses in an Anchorage warehouse.

State health officials this summer will come up with a map for quickly distributing the drugs if there is an outbreak. The plan calls for moving some of the antivirals from Anchorage to cities and towns such as Bethel, Nome and Kotzebue, and eventually out to the villages.

"It won't do any good to have the medicine if we don't have a distribution plan to go," Mandsager said.

The virus has led to the death or slaughter of millions of birds in Asia, Europe and Africa.

Plans call for testing some 19,000 mostly live, wild and migratory birds in Alaska this year for bird flu. That's out of 75,000 to 100,000 birds the federal government hopes to test nationwide.

As of the end of June, about 5,000 samples had been taken from Alaska birds. The samples are being tested at various labs, said Lynda Giguere, spokeswoman for the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation.

"We have not found the high-pathogen avian influenza virus, which is the H5N1 virus. We have not found any," Giguere said.

Given Alaska's low number of domestic birds compared to some other states, it is more likely that bird flu will show up elsewhere, Mandsager said, adding that only one case involving human deaths may have come from wild birds. But he said that doesn't let Alaska off the hook, particularly if already there was an outbreak in another state.

"The likelihood is that the federal supply will be used up and we better have some in-state," he said.
 

New Freedom

Veteran Member
http://www.agprofessional.com/show_story.php?id=41615


USDA reports on avian influenza efforts; how $91 million appropriation spent
Jul. 5, 2006

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The USDA has released its 180-day report on avian influenza efforts and the use of $91 million appropriated in the Emergency Supplemental Appropriation to Address Pandemic Influenza six months ago.

The report details USDA's efforts both internationally and domestically to combat highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza (HPAI H5N1).

"We're working with federal and state government partners, as well as industry to prepare the public for the possibility of a highly pathogenic avian influenza detection in the United States," said Agriculture Deputy Secretary Chuck Conner. "From the emergency response teams we have dispatched to affected countries to the testing of both wild and domestic flocks in the U.S., our approach will help to slow the spread of the virus overseas and prepare for the possibility of a detection here."

USDA plays many important roles in the government's response and is leading the efforts to confront this disease in birds. USDA is prepared to quickly and decisively respond in the event of a detection of HPAI H5N1 in U.S. poultry.

USDA has implemented a reporting system to answer calls and inquiries from the public regarding dead or sick wild birds. The toll-free number, 866-4 USDAWS, has been published on the USDA Web site, www.usda.gov/birdflu, to support public inquiries and help expedite calls.
 
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<B><center>State, county planning for a pandemic
<font size=+1 color=red>Morgan County health department to have two meetings about avian flu</font>

By Hannah Lodge
Saturday July 8, 2006
MOORESVILLE
<A href="http://www.reporter-times.com/?module=displaystory&story_id=33679&format=html">LINK</a></center>
Indiana is bracing itself for a potential avian influenza pandemic that the World Health Organization estimates could cause between 2 and 7.4 million deaths worldwide.

State Health Commissioner Judith Monroe has asked Indiana counties and communities to hold outreach and educational meetings regarding bird flu, according to Leonard Huffman, public health preparedness coordinator with the Morgan County Health Department. Huffman said Morgan County will hold its first bird flu meeting Thursday. </b>

Public leaders and elected officials have been invited to attend, but anyone is welcome to go to the information session, which will be at 7 p.m. Thursday at St. Francis Hospital in Mooresville. A similar meeting will also take place at 7 p.m. July 27 in the Morgan County Administration Building in Martinsville.

Eric Deckers, spokesperson for the Indiana State Department of Health, said the department is encouraging these meetings so that communities have a plan in place for dealing with bird flu if a pandemic, or global disease outbreak, occurs.

“We are expecting some sort of pan-flu, because historically we get three in a century, and we’re overdue for one. Of all the flues out there, avian flu is the most likely,” he said. “We all agree it’s a matter of when, not if, it’s going to happen. That’s why we’re encouraging preparedness: because this literally will affect everybody.”

Huffman said the central purpose of the meeting is to present the public with facts. Mooresville

<i>WHAT: Mooresville avian influenza educational meeting

WHEN: 7 p.m., Thursday

How it’s spread to humans: Although the Center for Disease Control recommends using precautions when handling raw poultry and eggs to protect against any infection, there is no evidence that avian influenza can be contracted from handling or ingesting properly-cooked infected poultry or eggs. Most cases are contracted as a result of direct contact with the infected poultry or contact with areas contaminated by excretions.


Symptoms: Human symptoms range from typical flu-like symptoms, such as sore throat, fever, muscle aches and cough, to more severe complications, such as eye infections, pneumonia and acute respiratory distress.


Treatment: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved the use of amantadine, rimantadine, oseltamivir and zanamivir, four anti-viral drugs, to treat influenza. Certain strains of the virus may be resistant to the drugs, however.


About avian influenza:

How to prepare: Eric Deckers, spokesperson for the Indiana State Department of Health, said the department recommends individuals have at least two weeks worth of food and medical supplies on hand. At bare minimum, 72 hours worth of food and medical supplies are essential, he said. </i>

“We want to make sure the public understands two things: There’s no need to panic, and our food supply is safe,” he said. “And a lot of people seem concerned on both those points.”

Huffman said the meeting will include slide presentations, a discussion panel that will answer audience questions, and a presentation from Pamela Pontones, director of surveillance and investigation of the epidemiology resource center at the Indiana State Department of Health.

According to the World Health Organization, avian influenza refers to a large group of influenza viruses that affect birds. One particular strain of avian influenza, however - H5N1 - has the potential to adapt into a strain that is contagious among humans. Should a pandemic occur, WHO estimates anywhere from 2 to 7.4 million deaths world-wide as a result, based on a comparatively mild pandemic in 1957, although the rate could be much higher, according to http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/pandemic10things/en/index.html. To date, there have been 229 cases of avian influenza in humans reported worldwide and 131 resulting deaths, according to a release issued on July 4 by WHO.

Deckers said for now, the most important thing is getting prepared.

“Basically what we’re waiting to happen is for the virus to mutate to something that is easily transmissible from person to person,” he said. “We don’t know when that’s going to happen, but everyone basically needs to be prepared as soon as they can so when it does, everyone’s got that mechanism in place.”
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>States line up to stockpile anti-flu drugs </font>

By KEVIN FREKING, The Associated Press
Published: Saturday, Jul. 8, 2006
WASHINGTON – South Carolina is in. Utah and Alabama, too.
<A href="http://nsnlb.us.publicus.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060708/NEWS02/107080097/-1/BUSINESS">LINK</a></center>
Some states aren’t waiting for an Aug. 1 deadline to seek help from the federal government in buying anti-flu medicine for a possible pandemic.

“We figure it is certainly better to do it and move forward with the purchase and hope we never have to use it than not and wish that we had,” said Jim Beasley, spokesman for South Carolina’s Department of Health and Environmental Control.
</b>
As part of its pandemic preparations, the federal government is stockpiling Tamiflu and other anti-flu medications, which can reduce the symptoms ment is negotiating a price with Roche Laboratories, Inc., which makes Tamiflu, and will pay a quarter of the costs, up to a prescribed amount for each state. In all, states could use the subsidy to buy anti-flu medications for an additional 31 million people.

The Department of Health and Human Services had set a July 1 deadline for states to indicate whether they would move forward with the purchase, but some states wanted more time, said spokesman Bill Hall. The deadline was moved to Aug. 1.

Hall stressed that the deadline does not obligate states to a specific course of action. Rather, it serves as guidance to HHS for its planning.

Montana and Arizona want only a little extra help. Meanwhile, states such as Washington say they plan to take full advantage of the next few weeks to determine the right amount of drugs to purchase.

“There’s a lot to sort out with antivirals,” said Tim Church, spokesman for the Washington state Department of Health. “It’s not a black-and-white decision.”

Oklahoma lawmakers this spring allocated $500,000 to buy anti-flu medications. That’s enough to pay for enough medicine to treat about 35,000 of the state’s 3.5 million people. But that’s about 7 percent of the amount HHS estimates the state could purchase through the federal subsidy.

“We’re struggling with how much do we need,” said the state’s epidemiologist, Dr. Brett Cauthen. “How much insurance do you need? Nobody knows what the best number is.”

Other states also indicated they probably won’t use their full allotment. Montana, population 918,000, plans to buy enough anti-flu medication to treat 8,100 people. It could have bought enough to treat about 96,000.

David Engelthaler, epidemiologist for the Arizona Department of Health Services, said the state had plans to spend $1 million on 70,000 courses of the 585,780 available to Arizona, population 5.6 million, but would talk to local health officials to see if more should be purchased.

Engelthaler said it wasn’t prudent to use public money to stockpile Tamiflu for every man, woman and child. “It’s not likely to be a good drug for general prevention like a vaccine would,” he said.

Meanwhile, New Hampshire said it intends to purchase all the drugs that the federal government is making available to the state, as well as enough to treat nearly a quarter-million health care workers, first responders and nursing home residents.

“The department feels that, at this time, the prudent act would be to place the order, as a placeholder,” state Health Commissioner John Stephen wrote in a letter to the governor and legislative officials.

Earlier, Dr. Jose Montero, state epidemiologist, said New Hampshire would not buy additional anti-flu medication unless the Legislature appropriated funds.

Other states also are taking advantage of the federal government’s offer.

“We are authorized to buy as much as we can get by the governor,” said Dr. Fred Jacobs, New Jersey’s health commissioner.

New Jersey has told HHS it wants enough to treat about 900,000 people.

Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University’s medical school, recommends that states have some anti-flu medication stockpiled in case of a pandemic. However, he said there’s no right answer when it comes to just how much the states should have on hand.

“These are all insurance policies we’re buying,” Schaffner said.

How much insurance a state wants has to be weighed against other pressing matters, such as funding better education or roads, he said.

Schaffner said he does sense, however, than many states still rely too much on the premise that the federal government should fund pandemic preparedness.

“When it comes down to funding, that’s when a lot of states are saying, gee, maybe it should all come from Uncle Sam,” said Schaffner. “I think that’s not a reasonable idea, and that’s why we at Vanderbilt have made an investment in our own stockpile, and have invested substantially in drills and planning.”

The federal government has made clear that it won’t be able to protect everyone in a pandemic.

“Any community that fails to prepare with the expectation that the federal government will at the last moment be able to come to the rescue will be tragically wrong,” said Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt.

There have been three influenza pandemics in the United States during the past century. Officials fear that a virus in birds, the H5N1 virus, could mutate and spread from human to human. The World Health Organization reports that at least 229 people are known to have contracted bird flu since 2003, of which, 131 died.
 
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<B><center>7 Jul 2006 13:09 GMT DJ
<font size=+1 color=green>EU Confirms Bird Flu Infected Wild Duck In North Spain </font>

<A href="http://framehosting.dowjonesnews.com/sample/samplestory.asp?StoryID=2006070713420002&Take=3">LINK</a><?center></b>
BRUSSELS (Dow Jones)-- A lethal strain of the bird flu virus has been found in a wild duck in northern Spain's Basque Country, the European Commission confirmed Friday.

Spain has imposed European safety standards within a 10-kilometer radius of where the bird was found, the commission said in a statement.

Spanish tests confirmed the lethal virus, and samples will now be tested by the E.U.'s central laboratory in Weybridge, U.K.
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>Many states line up to stockpile anti-flu medication</font>

Published: Saturday, July 8, 2006
WASHINGTON (AP) — South Carolina is in. Utah and Alabama, too.
<A href="http://www.saukvalley.com/news/293153464619169.bsp">LINK</a></center>
Some states aren't waiting for an Aug. 1 deadline to seek help from the federal government in buying anti-flu medicine for a possible pandemic.

"We figure it is certainly better to do it and move forward with the purchase and hope we never have to use it than not and wish that we had," Jim Beasley, spokesman for South Carolina's Department of Health and Environmental Control, said. </b>

As part of its pandemic preparations, the federal government is stockpiling Tamiflu and other anti-flu medications, which can reduce the symptoms associated with influenza. The Bush administration plans to buy enough to treat 44 million people.

States can buy more if they want. The government is negotiating a price with Roche Laboratories Inc., which makes Tamiflu, and will pay a quarter of the costs, up to a prescribed amount for each state. In all, states could use the subsidy to buy anti-flu medications for an additional 31 million people.

The Department of Health and Human Services had set a July 1 deadline for states to indicate whether they would move forward with the purchase, but some states wanted more time, said spokesman Bill Hall. The deadline was moved to Aug. 1.

Hall stressed that the deadline does not obligate states to a specific course of action. Rather, it serves as guidance to HHS for its planning.

Montana and Arizona want only a little extra help. Meanwhile, states such as Washington say they plan to take full advantage of the next few weeks to determine the right amount of drugs to purchase.

"There's a lot to sort out with antivirals," Tim Church, spokesman for the Washington state Department of Health, said. "It's not a black-and-white decision."

Oklahoma lawmakers this spring allocated $500,000 to buy anti-flu medications. That's enough to pay for enough medicine to treat about 35,000 of the state's 3.5 million people. But that's about 7 percent of the amount HHS estimates the state could purchase through the federal subsidy.

"We're struggling with how much do we need," the state's epidemiologist, Dr. Brett Cauthen said. "How much insurance do you need? Nobody knows what the best number is."

Other states also indicated they probably won't use their full allotment. Montana, population 918,000, plans to buy enough anti-flu medication to treat 8,100 people. It could have bought enough to treat about 96,000.

David Engelthaler, epidemiologist for the Arizona Department of Health Services, said the state had plans to spend $1 million on 70,000 courses of the 585,780 available to Arizona, population 5.6 million, but would talk to local health officials to see if more should be purchased.

Engelthaler said it wasn't prudent to use public money to stockpile Tamiflu for every man, woman and child. "It's not likely to be a good drug for general prevention like a vaccine would," he said.

Meanwhile, New Hampshire said it intends to purchase all the drugs that the federal government is making available to the state, as well as enough to treat nearly a quarter-million health care workers, first responders and nursing home residents.

"The department feels that, at this time, the prudent act would be to place the order, as a placeholder," state Health Commissioner John Stephen wrote in a letter to the governor and legislative officials.

Earlier, Dr. Jose Montero, state epidemiologist, said New Hampshire would not buy additional anti-flu medication unless the Legislature appropriated funds.

Other states also are taking advantage of the federal government's offer.

"We are authorized to buy as much as we can get by the governor," Dr. Fred Jacobs, New Jersey's health commissioner, said.

New Jersey has told HHS it wants enough to treat about 900,000 people.
 
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<B><center>Saturday, July 8, 2006
<font size=+1 color=purple>Preparing for the worst</font>

<A href="http://www.kcchronicle.com/MainSection/301484805801135.php">LINK</a></center>
The recent TV movie "Fatal Contact: Bird Flu in America" portrayed society in chaos after a worldwide pandemic triggered by the bird flu.

Could such a scenario happen? No one knows. But emergency and health agencies in Kane and McHenry counties are preparing for the worst. </b>

"We don't want the public to be afraid, but on the other hand, we don't want people to be totally apathetic," Kane County Health Department emergency response coordinator Michael Isaacson said.


Bird flu is an infection caused by avian (bird) influenza viruses, which occur naturally in birds.

The H5N1 virus has infected birds in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Near East. But the United States has yet to report a H5N1 bird flu case, and the virus has not yet mutated to pass easily between humans, which could trigger a pandemic.

Isaacson said he did not know whether the bird flu would be a repeat of the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 to 1919, which killed 20 million to 50 million people worldwide.

"We don't know what the next pandemic flu virus will be,"he said. "We need to be prepared for anything."

In the United States alone, 675,000 people died in the Spanish Flu pandemic. A recently study suggested the virus jumped directly from birds to humans.

The Kane County and McHenry County health departments have plans in place – including the large-scale distribution of vaccine – to deal with a potential pandemic.

The Kane County Health Department recently received a $87,604 grant from the Illinois Department of Public Health for pandemic flu planning. The McHenry County Health Department received a $54,500 grant.

But a vaccine would not be available right away if there was a pandemic.

"We don't know what the strain will be," Isaacson said. "It wouldn't be until we see the strain that a vaccine could be developed that matches it exactly. If the pandemic flu were to occur, we would be probably looking at a few months before a vaccine would be available."

Vaccines being developed now may offer some protection against a pandemic, he added.

In the event of a pandemic, the Kane County Health Department would work with the state health department to prioritize how a vaccine would be distributed, Isaacson said.

However, there are steps people can take to protect themselves.

"If you are ill, you should stay home. Avoid people who are ill," Isaacson said.

In the event of a pandemic, the virus will spread easily, so Isaacson said people need to practice good hygiene.

"Sneeze into your elbow, not into your hand. Wash your hands frequently or use hand sanitizer. Keep your hands away from your eyes, ears and mouth," he said.

Another simple way to prepare for a possible pandemic is to put together an emergency kit with food, water and medicine.

"We always recommend having at least three days of food and water on hand," Isaacson said. "An emergency kit is critical in any disaster."

Area hospitals are preparing for an influx of additional patients if there is a pandemic. Hospital officials would be able to look at the Illinois Department of Public Health's Web site to check on bed availability at different hospitals in the event of a pandemic.

"They would know if a hospital is overwhelmed," said Scott Vance, Emergency Management Services director for Provena Mercy Center Medical Center in Aurora.

Plans also are in place to prevent the bird flu from spreading throughout a hospital, said Delnor-Community Hospital infection control specialist Harlene Husted.

"In April 2005, we went through a preparedness drill. We treated pretend patients who had picked up the avian flu at a poultry exhibit at the Kane County Fairgrounds," Husted said.

Pet stores in central Kane County that sell birds are not worried by the bird flu – at least not yet.

"All our birds we get from local breeders," Mark Janczak, owner of Critters Pet Shop in St. Charles, said. "If the bird flu ever comes to this country, we will follow the guidelines from the Illinois Department of Agriculture. At this point, I don't know if there is anything we can do."

The Crystal Lake Fire Rescue Department increased stocks of masks, gloves and hand sanitizer by 40 percent in March to prepare for a potential bird flu pandemic. That was just the beginning. The city started to revise plans last month on how it would provide services if some staff members were infected, said fire Chief Jim Moore.

"Is it a reality? Boy, I don't know," Moore said. "But, it's something people need to think about for the preparation."

Meanwhile, Northern Illinois Medical Center in McHenry and Memorial Hospital in Woodstock participate in periodic drills run by Sherman Hospital in Elgin, which leads regional medical disaster efforts. Depending on the pandemic's severity, the hospital could ask infected patients to stay home or in designated areas.

They could be hospitalized locally or sent to other hospitals in the state, said Karen Van Buren, an infections nurse at Northern Illinois Medical Center.
 
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<B><center>7 Jul 2006 10:50 GMT DJ EU:
<font size=+1 color=red>Human Risk From Bird Flu Low But Pandemic Will Happen </font>

<A href="http://framehosting.dowjonesnews.com/sample/samplestory.asp?StoryID=2006070710500003&Take=1">LINK</a></center>
BRUSSELS (AP)--European Union experts said Friday an influenza pandemic that could kill millions remains inevitable, although the immediate threat to human health from bird flu in Europe remains low.

"It's when and not if," said Robert Madelin, director general of the E.U.'s health and consumer protection department. Influenza pandemics are rare, but recurrent events. </b>

Madelin cited scientists' predictions suggesting a flu pandemic could kill between 2 million and 7 million people worldwide, 10 times the death rate from regular flu. However, he warned forecasting was very difficult and current predictions could be "wildly wrong." There is no way of predicting how deadly an influenza pandemic might be, and any guesses at a future death toll are speculative at best.

The head of the E.U.'s center for disease control said efforts to contain outbreaks of the avian influenza H5N1 strain among domestic poultry in Europe had been successful.

"H5N1 is a very low risk to public health in the European Union," said Zsuzsanna Jakab.

She added the threat of more outbreaks among European birds remained, and warned continued cases of humans contracting the disease from infected birds in Asia increased the risk that the virus could mutate into a strain that might pass more easily from person to person.

"It may be a low level threat but it is one which we must take very seriously," Jakab told a news conference. "As long as the virus is endemic in Asia and parts of Africa it is quite likely that it will recur in Europe."

The E.U. said all 25 of its member nations had now drawn up national preparedness plans to deal with a pandemic. Among other measures, the bloc has invested EUR200 million in helping countries in Asia, Africa and other high risk areas monitor and control the disease, and was spending EUR20 million on research on vaccines.

However, Madelin said E.U. nations should also improve plans for dealing with the social and economic impact of a pandemic which he said could put up to half of the work force on sick leave, severely curtail consumer spending, and add a huge burden to medical services by putting up to 5 million extra people into European hospital beds.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Flu pandemic plan prepares for potential 30 percent infection rate</font>

2006-07-08
The Associated Press
<A href="http://www.thedailytimes.com/sited/story/html/260893">LINK</a></center>
NASHVILLE -- State health officials unveiled Tennessee's updated plan to handle a potential flu pandemic on Thursday, outlining the way authorities and health care workers would hope to contain and treat thousands of infected patients.

The 205-page plan outlines how patients would be quarantined, how vaccine would be distributed and how local, state and federal agencies would coordinate their efforts.</b>

Exercises are planned in the winter of this year, after local agencies are due to turn in their own response plans to state officials. The new plan updates one from 1999 to comply with federal plans and current diseases.

Tennessee's plan is based on an outbreak of the severity of the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918, in which more than 500,000 Americans died.

The plan predicts a potential virus would infect about 30 percent of Tennesseans and cause between about 4,200 and 38,000 deaths, or 2 percent of the population. About 900,000 could seek outpatient care, with an estimated 198,000 requiring hospitalization.

Planning for a nationwide pandemic has speeded up in recent years, following fears of bioterrorism and the spread of harmful viruses in Asia, like SARS and the H5N1 avian flu.

There have been outbreaks of H5N1 in 53 countries, leading to the deaths of 131 people, although there are no signs of the virus in North America.

``It is impossible to predict whether H5N1 will mutate to become able to spread easily among people,'' said Dr. Kelly L. Moore, medical director of Tennessee's immunization program and its pandemic planning coordinator. ``Flu viruses have caused pandemics throughout history, and it is natural to expect that another pandemic influenza virus will emerge at some point.''

Federal officials have advised states and municipalities to develop their own comprehensive plans, because federal resources would be limited in a national outbreak.

``We encourage people to think locally about local resources,'' Moore said.
 
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<B><center>Saturday, July 08, 2006
<font size=+1 color=brown>Utah ready to stock up on flu medicine</font>

KEVIN FREKING - The Associated Press
<A href="http://www.heraldextra.com/content/view/185493/">LINK</a></center>
WASHINGTON -- Utah is in. South Carolina and Alabama, too. New Hampshire is out, at least for now.

States have three more weeks to indicate whether they will seek help from the federal government in buying anti-flu medicine for a possible pandemic. Some already have made up their minds.</b>

"We figure it is certainly better to do it and move forward with the purchase and hope we never have to use it than not and wish that we had," said Jim Beasley, spokesman for South Carolina's Department of Health and Environmental Control.

As part of its pandemic preparations, the federal government is stockpiling Tamiflu and other anti-flu medications, which can reduce the symptoms associated with influenza. The Bush administration plans to buy enough to treat 44 million people.

States can buy more if they want. The government is negotiating a price with Roche Laboratories Inc., which makes Tamiflu, and will pay a quarter of the costs, up to a prescribed amount for each state. In all, states could use the subsidy to buy anti-flu medications for an additional 31 million people.

The Department of Health and Human Services had set a July 1 deadline for states to indicate whether they would move forward with the purchase, but some states wanted more time, said spokesman Bill Hall. The deadline was moved to Aug. 1.

Hall stressed that the deadline does not obligate states to a specific course of action. Rather, it serves as guidance to HHS for its planning.

The Utah Department of Health said the state had ordered its maximum allotment of 280,000 treatment courses. Department spokeswoman Laura Vernon said the state wanted to be prepared in case of a pandemic and ordered enough of the antivirals for 25 percent of the population.

Montana and Arizona want only a little extra help. Meanwhile, states such as Washington say they plan to take full advantage of the next few weeks to determine the right amount of drugs to purchase.

"There's a lot to sort out with antivirals," said Tim Church, spokesman for the Washington state Department of Health. "It's not a black-and-white decision."

Oklahoma lawmakers this spring allocated $500,000 to buy anti-flu medications. That's enough to pay for enough medicine to treat about 35,000 of the state's 3.5 million people. But that's less than 7 percent of the amount HHS estimates the state could purchase through the federal subsidy.

"We're struggling with how much do we need," said the state's epidemiologist, Dr. Brett Cauthen. "How much insurance do you need? Nobody knows what the best number is."

Other states also indicated they probably won't use their full allotment. Montana, population 918,000, plans to buy enough anti-flu medication to treat 8,100 people. It could have bought enough to treat about 96,000.

David Engelthaler, epidemiologist for the Arizona Department of Health Services, said the state had plans to spend $1 million on 70,000 courses of the 585,780 available to Arizona, population 5.6 million, but would talk to local health officials to see if more should be purchased.

Engelthaler said it wasn't prudent to use public money to stockpile Tamiflu for every man, woman and child. "It's not likely to be a good drug for general prevention like a vaccine would," he said.

Meanwhile, Dr. Jose Montero, state epidemiologist for New Hampshire, says the state will not buy additional anti-flu medication unless the Legislature appropriates funds for the purchase. And that couldn't happen until the Legislature comes back in January.

Other states say they will take advantage of the federal government's offer.

"We are authorized to buy as much as we can get by the governor," said Dr. Fred Jacobs, New Jersey's health commissioner.

New Jersey has told HHS it wants enough to treat about 900,000 people.

Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University's medical school, recommends that states have some anti-flu medication stockpiled in case of a pandemic. However, he said there's no right answer when it comes to just how much the states should have on hand.

"These are all insurance policies we're buying," Schaffner said.

How much insurance a state wants has to be weighed against other pressing matters, such as funding better education or roads, he said.

Schaffner said he does sense, however, that many states still rely too much on the premise that the federal government should fund pandemic preparedness.

"When it comes down to funding, that's when a lot of states are saying, gee, maybe it should all come from Uncle Sam," said Schaffner. "I think that's not a reasonable idea, and that's why we at Vanderbilt have made an investment in our own stockpile, and have invested substantially in drills and planning."

The federal government has made clear that it won't be able to protect everyone in a pandemic.

"Any community that fails to prepare with the expectation that the federal government will at the last moment be able to come to the rescue will be tragically wrong," said Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt.

There have been three influenza pandemics in the United States during the past century. Officials fear that a virus in birds, the H5N1 virus, could mutate and spread from human to human. The World Health Organization reports that at least 229 people are known to have contracted bird flu since 2003, of which, 131 died.
 
=




<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>Many states stockpiling medicine for flu pandemic</font>

Saturday, July 8, 2006
Associated Press
WASHINGTON -- South Carolina is in. Utah and Alabama, too.
<A href="http://www.rep-am.com/story.php?id=9438">LINK</a></center>
Some states aren't waiting for an Aug. 1 deadline to seek help from the federal government in buying anti-flu medicine for a possible pandemic.

"We figure it is certainly better to do it and move forward with the purchase and hope we never have to use it than not and wish that we had," said Jim Beasley, spokesman for South Carolina's Department of Health and Environmental Control.
</b>
As part of its pandemic preparations, the federal government is stockpiling Tamiflu and other anti-flu medications, which can reduce the symptoms associated with influenza. The Bush administration plans to buy enough to treat 44 million people.

States can buy more if they want.


The government is negotiating a price with Roche Laboratories, Inc., which makes Tamiflu, and will pay a quarter of the costs, up to a prescribed amount for each state. In all, states could use the subsidy to buy anti-flu medications for an additional 31 million people.

The Department of Health and Human Services had set a July 1 deadline for states to indicate whether they would move forward with the purchase, but some states wanted more time, said spokesman Bill Hall. The deadline was moved to Aug. 1.

Hall stressed that the deadline does not obligate states to a specific course of action. Rather, it serves as guidance to HHS for its planning.

Montana and Arizona want only a little extra help. Meanwhile, states such as Washington say they plan to take full advantage of the next few weeks to determine the right amount of drugs to purchase.

"There's a lot to sort out with antivirals," said Tim Church, spokesman for the Washington state Department of Health. "It's not a black-and-white decision."

Oklahoma lawmakers this spring allocated $500,000 to buy anti-flu medications. That's enough to pay for enough medicine to treat about 35,000 of the state's 3.5 million people. But that's about 7 percent of the amount HHS estimates the state could purchase through the federal subsidy.

"We're struggling with how much do we need," said the state's epidemiologist, Dr. Brett Cauthen. "How much insurance do you need? Nobody knows what the best number is."

Other states also indicated they probably won't use their full allotment. Montana, population 918,000, plans to buy enough anti-flu medication to treat 8,100 people. It could have bought enough to treat about 96,000.

David Engelthaler, epidemiologist for the Arizona Department of Health Services, said the state had plans to spend $1 million on 70,000 courses of the 585,780 available to Arizona, population 5.6 million, but would talk to local health officials to see if more should be purchased.

Engelthaler said it wasn't prudent to use public money to stockpile Tamiflu for every man, woman and child. "It's not likely to be a good drug for general prevention like a vaccine would," he said.

Meanwhile, New Hampshire said it intends to purchase all the drugs that the federal government is making available to the state, as well as enough to treat nearly a quarter-million health care workers, first responders and nursing home residents.

"The department feels that, at this time, the prudent act would be to place the order, as a placeholder," state Health Commissioner John Stephen wrote in a letter to the governor and legislative officials.

Earlier, Dr. Jose Montero, state epidemiologist, said New Hampshire would not buy additional anti-flu medication unless the Legislature appropriated funds.

Other states also are taking advantage of the federal government's offer.

"We are authorized to buy as much as we can get by the governor," said Dr. Fred Jacobs, New Jersey's health commissioner.


New Jersey has told HHS it wants enough to treat about 900,000 people.

Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University's medical school, recommends that states have some anti-flu medication stockpiled in case of a pandemic. However, he said there's no right answer when it comes to just how much the states should have on hand.

"These are all insurance policies we're buying," Schaffner said.

How much insurance a state wants has to be weighed against other pressing matters, such as funding better education or roads, he said.

Schaffner said he does sense, however, than many states still rely too much on the premise that the federal government should fund pandemic preparedness.

"When it comes down to funding, that's when a lot of states are saying, gee, maybe it should all come from Uncle Sam," said Schaffner. "I think that's not a reasonable idea, and that's why we at Vanderbilt have made an investment in our own stockpile, and have invested substantially in drills and planning."

The federal government has made clear that it won't be able to protect everyone in a pandemic.

"Any community that fails to prepare with the expectation that the federal government will at the last moment be able to come to the rescue will be tragically wrong," said Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt.

There have been three influenza pandemics in the United States during the past century. Officials fear that a virus in birds, the H5N1 virus, could mutate and spread from human to human. The World Health Organization reports that at least 229 people are known to have contracted bird flu since 2003, of which, 131 died.
 
=




<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Many states aren't waiting to stockpile anti-flu drugs </font>

Kevin Freking
Associated Press
Jul. 8, 2006 12:00 AM
<A href="http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0708pandemic0708.html">LINK</a></center>
WASHINGTON - Some states aren't waiting for an Aug. 1 deadline to seek help from the federal government in buying anti-flu medicine for a possible pandemic.

"We figure it is certainly better to do it and move forward with the purchase and hope we never have to use it than not and wish that we had," said Jim Beasley, spokesman for South Carolina's Department of Health and Environmental Control.
</b>
As part of its pandemic preparations, the federal government is stockpiling Tamiflu and other anti-flu medications, which can reduce the symptoms associated with influenza. The Bush administration plans to buy enough to treat 44 million people.


States can buy more if they want. The government is negotiating a price with Roche Laboratories Inc., which makes Tamiflu, and will pay a quarter of the costs, up to a prescribed amount for each state. In all, states could use the subsidy to buy anti-flu medications for an additional 31 million people.

The Department of Health and Human Services had set a July 1 deadline for states to indicate whether they would move forward with the purchase, but some states wanted more time, spokesman Bill Hall said. The deadline was moved to Aug. 1.

Hall stressed that the deadline does not obligate states to a specific course of action. Rather, it serves as guidance to HHS for its planning.

Meanwhile, states such as Washington say they plan to take full advantage of the next few weeks to determine the right amount of drugs to purchase.

"There's a lot to sort out with antivirals," said Tim Church, spokesman for the Washington state Department of Health. "It's not a black-and-white decision."

Oklahoma lawmakers this spring allocated $500,000 to buy anti-flu medications. That's enough to pay for enough medicine to treat about 35,000 of the state's 3.5 million people. But that's about 7 percent of the amount HHS estimates the state could purchase through the federal subsidy.

Other states also indicated they probably won't use their full allotment.

Meanwhile, New Hampshire said it intends to purchase all the drugs that the federal government is making available to the state, as well as enough to treat nearly a quarter-million health care workers, first responders and nursing home residents.

"The department feels that, at this time, the prudent act would be to place the order, as a placeholder," state Health Commissioner John Stephen wrote in a letter to the governor and legislative officials.
 
=




<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>States must pick their strategy against bird flu threat</font>

By ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published July 8, 2006
<A href="http://www.sptimes.com/2006/07/08/Worldandnation/States_must_pick_thei.shtml">LINK</a></center>
WASHINGTON - South Carolina is in. Utah and Alabama, too. New Hampshire is out, at least for now.

States have three more weeks to indicate whether they will seek help from the federal government in buying antiflu medicine for a possible pandemic. Some already have made up their minds.</b>

"We figure it is certainly better to do it and move forward with the purchase and hope we never have to use it than not and wish that we had," said Jim Beasley, spokesman for South Carolina's Department of Health and Environmental Control.

Officials fear that a virus in birds, the H5N1 virus, could mutate and spread from human to human.

As part of its pandemic preparations, the federal government is stockpiling Tamiflu and other antiflu medications, which can reduce the symptoms associated with influenza. The Bush administration plans to buy enough to treat 44-million people.

States can buy more if they want. The government is negotiating a price with Roche Laboratories Inc., which makes Tamiflu, and will pay a quarter of the costs, up to a prescribed amount for each state. In all, states could use the subsidy to buy antiflu medications for an additional 31-million people.

Florida is eligible to buy an additional 1,784,796 medications as part of the program.

Bill Hall, a spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services, stressed that the Aug. 1 deadline does not obligate states to a specific course of action. Rather, it serves as guidance to the department for its planning.

Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University's medical school, recommends that states have some antiflu medication stockpiled in case of a pandemic. However, he said there's no right answer when it comes to just how much the states should have on hand.

"These are all insurance policies we're buying," Schaffner said.

The federal government has made clear that it won't be able to protect everyone in a pandemic. "Any community that fails to prepare with the expectation that the federal government will at the last moment be able to come to the rescue will be tragically wrong," said Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt.
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>Health officials make plans for flu outbreak</font>

Saturday, July 08, 2006
By Emily Ingram
Tribune-Herald staff writer
<A href="http://www.wacotrib.com/news/content/news/stories/2006/07/08/07082006wacflupandemic.html">LINK</a></center>
McLennan County officials are making emergency plans in case of a pandemic flu outbreak.

McLennan County Public Health District program administrator Sherry Williams said the district received more than $47,000 from the Texas Department of State Health Services for pandemic flu planning which they must spend by the end of the calendar year.</b>

Local members of the business, medical and education communities Friday helped start the planning process.

There is no sign of a pandemic flu in the United States at this time, Williams said.

During the meeting, epidemiologist Charles Burgoon estimated the impact a pandemic flu would have on McLennan County’s population.

What’s the difference between pandemic flu and the regular variety?

Regular, seasonal flu:

* Dangerous for very young and very old populations

* An average 36,000 people die every year in the United States from the flu

* Seasonal in nature, somewhat predictable within the medical community

* People have built up immunity and vaccines are available

Pandemic flu:

* Dangerous for everyone, affects working-age people more than other groups

* Depending on how quickly the flu spreads, thousands can die

* Unpredictable in nature, usually an unknown strain of flu

* No vaccines are available in the early stages of discovery

Pandemic flu scenarios in McLennan County

* If 15 percent of the population became infected, Burgoon estimated 62 people would die and 367 people would require hospitalization

* In a more serious scenario, with 25 percent of the population affected, the county would experience an estimated 102 deaths and 611 hospitalizations.

* If 35 percent of the population got sick, an estimated 142 people could die and 856 people hospitalized, putting hospitals at 155 percent capacity.
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>What he knew in 1918 could save millions of lives</font>

By Harry Levins
POST-DISPATCH SENIOR WRITER
07/08/2006
<A href="http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/nation/story/33344E3A2C8C937C862571A5006A3EAD?OpenDocument">LINK</a></center>
With masks over the faces, members of the American Red Cross remove a victim of the Spanish Flu from a house at Etzel and Page Avenues in St. Louis. In 1918, the flu killed 50 million around the world, 675,000 in America and 3,000 in St. Louis.</b>

As health experts look ahead to the possibility of a bird flu pandemic, they're also looking backward to St. Louis as a model of dealing with the disease.

The last worldwide flu pandemic - also a bird flu, dubbed the Spanish Flu - struck in the fall of 1918. Worldwide, it killed perhaps 50 million people, including 675,000 Americans.

In St. Louis, the toll for 1918 rose to just shy of 3,000. That's a heavy loss, about the same as the fatalities in the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

But among America's big cities, those 3,000 flu deaths were remarkably low. Although nobody can pinpoint Philadelphia's precise death total, it may have topped 15,000. Advertisement


In 1918, nobody had a flu vaccine that worked. If avian flu strikes now, nobody will have a flu vaccine for the first six to eight months. Until that vaccine gets into doctors' hands, public health workers are going to have to rely on what worked in 1918.

What worked then in St. Louis was stern "social distancing" - the medical bureaucrat's term for quarantining the sick and keeping everybody else as isolated as possible, all to check the spread of the disease through coughing and sneezing.

That "social distancing" of 1918 was the brainchild of the city's health commissioner, Dr. Max C. Starkloff. Working with Mayor Henry Kiel, Starkloff closed schools, barred public gatherings and shut or limited businesses.

As a result, the city's flu death rate for each 1,000 residents was 3.0 - the lowest big-city figure. Philadelphia's rate was 7.3, and that was only third-worst among big cities. San Francisco's rate ran to 7.6. In Pittsburgh, the figure hit 8.0.

Starkloff's approach worked back then, and some experts think it could well work again.

Among them is Dr. Howard Markel, a physician and a medical historian at the University of Michigan's medical school. He's leading a team that has just started a Spanish Flu study for the federal Centers for Disease Control. That agency wants to know just what, short of a vaccine, worked. MORE
Starkloff's successor would follow Starkloff's plan
Starkloff recalled as being hard-nosed
Flu wasn't really Spanish

"St. Louis is definitely one of the cities we expect to study," Markel said in a phone interview. And in a salute to Starkloff, Markel said, "That guy in St. Louis was a remarkably adept politician. He got his ducks in a row, and he worked well with the mayor."

The 1918 flu is the subject of "The Great Influenza," an award-winning history written by John M. Barry and published in 1994.

Although the book skips over St. Louis, Barry said in a recent phone interview, "St. Louis was a very interesting place in 1918. Now it's being studied to see what we can learn - whether the city had aggressive leadership or just plain luck."

Luck? William Stanhope of St. Louis University's School of Public Health says St. Louis was lucky, but not in the sense that the Spanish Flu merely brushed against the city in random fashion.

"This city was incredibly lucky," says Stanhope, whose research has delved deeply into the city's flu response. The reason for St. Louis' luck: "It had a hard-nosed health commissioner - and it had a mayor with the guts to back up the health commissioner."

Disaster in Philadelphia

Stanhope thinks the Spanish Flu originated in Asia. Barry thinks it started closer to home, in southwestern Kansas, as a mild flu in the spring of 1918.

In Barry's book, American soldiers bound for the battlefields of World War I carried the flu to France. Most experts agree that in Europe, the virus mutated into its killer form. Then it recrossed the Atlantic on naval ships, hitting the Eastern Seaboard in early September 1918.

The flu came ashore in Boston, New York and, most hurtfully, in Philadelphia. In fact, in dealing with the flu, Philadelphia became a model of ineptitude. "They were tardy in everything they did," says Stanhope.

Through ignorance, wishful thinking and a readiness to cave in to civic and business pressure, Philadelphia's leaders took a business-as-usual approach. The population paid dearly.

For example: That city's movers and shakers had long planned a war-bond parade for Sept. 28. The spectacle was expected to draw a crowd of hundreds of thousands downtown - a ground zero for the flu. Even so, nobody in City Hall could muster the backbone to call it off. The crowds filled downtown Philadelphia.

"And three days later," says Dr. William Kincaid of the St. Louis Health Department, "you couldn't find an empty hospital bed in all of Philadelphia."

Today, Kincaid is what Starkloff was in 1918 - St. Louis' top health official. And back in September 1918, despite wartime censorship that tended to mute bad news, Starkloff sniffed out what was heading across America toward St. Louis that September.

Mostly, the flu rode with soldiers and sailors moving south and west from post to post, base to base. All accounts of the flu note that soldiers and sailors clustered in the age group that was hit hardest - people in their 20s and 30s.

Typically, flu tends to kill the very young and the very old. The typical flu tends to spare young adults, whose immune systems work at peak efficiency. But the Spanish Flu hit the other way.

When this alien species of flu invaded the lungs of a young adult with a strong immune system, that system went berserk in an effort to override the virus. "It set off a chemical cascade," says Stanhope. "People got acute respiratory distress syndrome - 'white lung' - and they died."

(Ominously, The New York Times reported this month that the avian flu now on the horizon targeted the same age group, with the same awful severity.)

In the fateful fall of 1918, Starkloff took pains to keep in touch with the Army doctors at Jefferson Barracks, then a bustling post of 6,000 soldiers. And sure enough, the flu seems to have arrived here on troop trains pulling into Jefferson Barracks.

'A monster in a cage'

On Oct. 1, 1918, the Post-Dispatch reported that nationwide, flu had infected 72,000 soldiers and sailors - no surprise, given the crowded barracks of that era. The same day's paper reported that officials at Jefferson Barracks were tight-lipped about the flu situation here.

But nobody can keep a lid on news that ugly. On Oct. 4, Jefferson Barracks conceded that the flu had struck down 500-plus soldiers - one in every 12 on the post.

Before long, the flu spread beyond the post's gates. A headline for Oct. 5 read, "Family of 7 Here Ill With Influenza."

Starkloff pressed the mayor to take action, but Kiel straddled the issue. Although the aldermen got a bill giving the mayor emergency powers, Kiel said that using those powers would be premature.

Things got worse over the weekend of Oct. 5-6. By Monday, Oct. 7, Jefferson Barracks had 900 sick soldiers, and in the city, 115 civilians were ailing. That same day, Starkloff rounded up the city's elite for a head-banging meeting in his office. Afterward, Kiel issued an emergency declaration that eventually:

Closed all schools.

Shut down theaters.

Barred public gatherings, such as banquets.

Shuttered churches.

Stopped dancing in hotels and cafes.

Suspended hospital visits.

Kept children from their playgrounds and library reading rooms.

Canceled conventions.

Closed streetcars to straphangers.

Put a pox on Halloween.

Before long, judges were suspending trials, Washington and St. Louis universities were canceling football games, and debutantes were putting weddings on hold. But by mid-month, the flu had stricken almost 3,200 St. Louisans, 69 of them fatally.

(Among the dead was U.S. Rep. Jacob E. Meeker, R-St. Louis, a former Protestant minister who just 11 months before had divorced his wife. On his deathbed, he married his secretary.)

Despite the deaths, Starkloff took grim comfort in the fact that the fatality rate was relatively low for St. Louis, then a city of 779,951.

On Oct. 18, he noted that flu had killed just 2.85 St. Louisans out each 1,000 population. In contrast, Starkloff said, Chicago's rate for the previous week was 10.25 - and for the current week, 12.99

Still, a backlash built up. The Women's Christian Temperance Union groused that although schools and churches were closed, bars remained open. Retailers complained that Starkloff's rules were hurting business. Archbishop (later Cardinal) John Glennon leaned on Starkloff to reopen churches, albeit restricting worshippers to every other pew.

Starkloff stood his ground. "The wisdom of this order has been proved by the small percentage of influenza infection in St. Louis," he said on Oct. 24.

He had an ally in Kiel, who told Starkloff: "I don't want anyone to die. Therefore, I shall support you." (Kiel's counterpart in Kansas City fired his own activist health commissioner. In the end, Kansas City's death rate reached 7.1 - more than double the rate in St. Louis.)

Another ally of Starkloff was Dr. Ellsworth Smith, president of the St. Louis Medical Society. On Nov. 1, Smith said, "We have got a monster in a cage. The question is, should we let him out and see if we can catch him again?"

One last surge

Starting Nov. 9, Starkloff imposed a four-day closure of all establishments except those "supplying sustenance, medical attention or the conduct of the war." Starkloff said the order "will have the effect of making every day appear like Sunday." It all but made downtown a ghost town.

Although the order was to last four days only, St. Louis University's Stanhope theorizes that Starkloff meant it to last four days if it worked. Otherwise, it would last longer. "But the federal government torpedoed Starkloff," Stanhope says. The government said the broad rule was hampering the war effort, even though the war was rapidly ending.

On Nov. 11, the Germans signed an armistice. That day, Starkloff let a downtown dry-goods store sell American flags to clamoring customers - but only if the clerks stood on the sidewalk outside the store.

Within days of the armistice, schools reopened and the ban on dancing disappeared. On Nov. 18, Starkloff lifted the last vestiges of his closing order.

Late in the month, the infection curve nosed upward again. Starkloff again closed schools and banned children from theaters. (Kirkwood took the school-closing notion further, closing Sunday schools as well.) But at month's end, St. Louis registered Case No. 20,000 since the emergency order of Oct. 7.

The spike continued into December. Things hit a gruesome peak on Dec. 11, with 85 deaths from flu and pneumonia, a one-day record here. (The one-day record in Philadelphia: 759, on Oct. 10).

On the plus side that same December day, 950 St. Louisans were reported cured, with only 534 newly infected. The disease seemed to be on the downward slope.

Indeed, at year's end, the Spanish Flu simply petered out. In the week of Dec. 8-14, it killed 502 people, the worst week here. But in the week of Dec. 29-Jan. 4, the death total from flu and pneumonia fell to just 16.

Stanhope says that after infecting more than 31,500 St. Louisans, the flu had finally worked its way through the vulnerable population. "It ran out of steam - out of new victims," he says.

Starkloff: Forgotten?

Nine decades ago, death at a young age was vastly more common than it is today. And the carnage of WWI made early death an everyday fact of life.

Maybe that explains why press accounts of the flu in St. Louis bore such a bloodless tone. On Dec. 10, the Post-Dispatch used three sentences of just-the-facts-please prose to tell about a cluster of heartbreak:

"The bodies of Mrs. Clara Breunig, wife of Anton Breunig, 2585 West Hebert Street, her son, Edward, 5 years old, and her daughter, Dolores, 4 years old, all of whom died of influenza, will be forwarded to Hermann, Mo., for interment.

"The boy died at 4:45 a.m. Friday, the mother at 3:30 p.m. Friday and the daughter at 3:15 p.m. Sunday. An older daughter, Agnes, and a 6-month-old baby are ill with influenza at St. Mary's infirmary."

But Stanhope and Kincaid insist that without Starkloff's stubborn stand, the paper would have had to run page after page of such poignant prose.

After Starkloff died in 1942, St. Louis renamed City Hospital in his honor. But right up until Max C. Starkloff Memorial Hospital closed in 1985, most St. Louisans kept calling the place "City Hospital."

Today, a city health clinic at Lemp and Shenandoah avenues bears Starkloff's name. Stanhope thinks Starkloff deserves more.

"Butch O'Hare was a pilot from St. Louis and got a Medal of Honor in WWII and had a big airport in Chicago named for him," Stanhope says. "I'm not certain that on that scale, having only a small health clinic named for Starkloff is equal."

To Stanhope, Starkloff was a towering hero in the war against the Spanish Flu - and now is winning national recognition as such. Stanhope says that in St. Louis, Starkloff's story "should be every bit as much a part of civic pride as the 1904 World's Fair or the Gashouse Gang."
 
=




<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>New York buying 1 million Tamiflu treatments</font>

By Associated Press
July 8, 2006
<A href="http://www.abqtrib.com/albq/bu_national/article/0,2565,ALBQ_19839_4828868,00.html">LINK</a></center>
ALBANY, N.Y. - New York is spending about $23 million to stockpile antiviral medications in the event of a pandemic flu outbreak in the coming years.

Rob Kenny, a spokesman for the New York State Health Department said the state plans to buy more than 1 million Tamiflu treatment courses and another 227,000 courses of Relenza. New York, a state of more than 19 million people, has 60,000 Tamiflu treatment courses on hand already. </b>

As part of its pandemic preparations, the federal government is stocking up on antivirals, which can reduce the symptoms associated with influenza. The Bush administration's plan is for the federal government to buy enough antivirals to treat 44 million people.

However, states can buy more if they want. The federal government is negotiating a price with Roche Corp., which makes Tamiflu, and will pay a quarter of the costs, up to a prescribed amount for each state. In all, states could use the subsidy to buy antivirals for an additional 31 million people.

A flu virus circulating among birds, the H5N1 virus, has ravaged poultry stocks in Asia since 2003 and recently spread to Europe through migratory birds. Health authorities fear the disease could mutate into a form that spreads from person-to-person, sparking a flu pandemic that could kill millions.

A total of 229 cases in humans, mostly in Asia, have been reported so far, leading to 131 deaths, according to the World Health Organization.

"With the developments in other parts of the world, a pandemic is certainly possible," Kenny said. "This is being done for precautionary reasons."

The state is spending about $18 million on Tamiflu and $5 million on Relenza.

Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University's Joseph L. Mailman School of Public Health, said such precautions are only worthwhile as part of a larger strategy.

"Tamiflu is not a complete answer by any stretch of the imagination," he said. "It's really much more concerning to me that our public health and hospital system is not ready to take care of a large number of patients."

A national report by the American College of Emergency Physicians in January found much of the nation wasn't prepared for the bird flu. New York state received an overall C+ grade for its emergency care system, slightly better than the C- rating given to the nation as a whole.

In February, the state released an emergency plan for any pandemic in New York such as bird flu that would include closing of schools and businesses and speedy distribution of vaccines. The public would also be advised to stockpile two weeks of food and water rations if the prospect of a pandemic seemed likely. The measures, part of the state's first flu pandemic plan, would largely be at the discretion of local health agencies.

While the state is spending a total of $29 million to prepare for a possible pandemic, the amount really needed is five to 10 times that amount, Redlener said.
 

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
Alabama

Dead birds to be tested for virus

By Alvin Benn
Montgomery Advertiser


July 9, 2006

The discovery of more than a dozen dead birds in the backyards of homes in a central Montgomery neighborhood Saturday raised concerns of possible West Nile virus or avian flu infections.


But state Health Officer Dr. Donald Williams said it did not appear from descriptions of the birds that either of the infectious diseases were involved.

However, Williamson said, "We are going to test them as quickly as possible."

"West Nile virus is endemic in Alabama, but from what I've heard, it does not appear right now that they might have been involved in the deaths of those birds," Williamson said Saturday afternoon.

Billy Houlton of 837 Sir Michael Drive said he found the dead birds when he began mowing his backyard Saturday morning. Each time he restarted or moved his mower in a different direction he found another dead bird.

By the time he stopped, he had discovered seven dead birds including five doves, a blue jay and a cardinal.

The seventh bird, a dove, was found under a dogwood bush in his front yard. Three neighbors also found dead birds in their backyards and one was found in a gutter across the street from Houlton's home.

"I don't know what killed 'em, but I'm concerned," Houlton, 66, said as he inspected the dead birds. "There's no telling how they died."


Houlton said none of his neighbors knew of anyone using pellet guns in recent days and he was unaware of any mosquito spraying in the area.

Williamson said it is possible that insecticide or pesticide spraying in recent days may have killed the birds.

He said he was concerned about the dead blue jay because, he said, "they are known to have been infected by the West Nile Virus."

"We certainly need to test them all," Williamson said.
"It is important for people who find dead birds not to touch them with their hands. They should be handled with gloves or a shovel."

Williamson said it appeared that none of the dead birds had been infected by avian influenza or bird flu, an infection caused by bird viruses. According to the Web site of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, wild birds worldwide carry the viruses in their intestines, but usually do not get sick from them.

There have been human cases of bird flu reported in Asia and parts of Europe and Africa, but none in the United States, according to the CDC.

"The blue jay may or may not be West Nile, but it is the right species," Williamson said. "We'll certainly be happy to test the blue jay and possibly the others as well.

The mosquito-borne West Nile virus has been identified in more than 200 species of birds found dead in the United States.

Houlton said Saturday afternoon that he put the birds in plastic bags, placed them in a Styrofoam cooler and covered them with ice. He said he was not going to put the dead birds in the freezer of his refrigerator.

Houlton said he has been told that the state Department of Agriculture and Industries will take possession of the dead birds, possibly on Monday, and examine them.

http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060709/NEWS01/607090316/1007

:vik:
 

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
September

Red Cross: Prepare for bird flu

Organization advises to stock up on water, food; central Illinois could see virus as early as September

Sunday, July 9, 2006

BY CLARE HOWARD

OF THE JOURNAL STAR
PEORIA - Avian flu pandemic could hit central Illinois as early as September with migratory birds flying down the Illinois River waterway, and health officials are recommending households have two to three weeks of supplies in the event of widespread quarantines.

"Health organizations all over the world are watchful for the spread. This virus is mutating so fast. No one knows, but the theory behind pandemic is that this is a whole new flu strain and everyone is vulnerable," said Anne Fox, chief executive officer of American Red Cross Central Illinois Chapter.

"Without sending an alarm, no one knows how widespread disruptions will be. Maybe transportation will be affected. Maybe it will impact supply lines.

"We need to be prepared to be self-sustaining as a community. In a normal disaster, people help each other. That may not be possible during a pandemic flu."

Normally, the Red Cross recommends households have three days of supplies. With the threat of pandemic flu and possible interruption of basic services, the Red Cross is recommending up to three weeks of supplies including food, water and medicine.

"We're told to expect the flu to strike in waves at about six-week intervals,"
Fox said, noting that 40 percent of the population could be sick or absent from work caring for sick family members.

American Red Cross Central Illinois Chapter covers six counties with 385,000 people. The organization is planning for illness and absenteeism to affect up to 160,000 people in the region.

Alyssa Pollock, disaster preparedness coordinator with American Red Cross Central Illinois Chapter, said, "We plan for bulk feeding, but we're not sure of our own supply chain. Plan A means all grocery stores are operational. Plan B means we deliver food. Plan C coordinates with restaurants."

Both Fox and Pollock encourage individual households to prepare with stockpiled water, food and medicine.

Red Cross volunteer Jean Larke is a disaster preparedness specialist and knows how disrupted supply lines and quarantines affect households. She has instructed her granddaughter Emily Larke, 16, that in the event of avian flu pandemic, both patient and caregiver should wear face masks to cut down on disease transmission.

"Have a minimum supply of 14 days of food and medications. Besides prescriptions, we have Tylenol, Chloraseptic, Robitussin, Tums, Imodium for diarrhea and thermometers,"
she said.

She also has a recipe for an electrolyte drink like Gatorade in the event vomiting and diarrhea result in dehydration.

"Dehydration from vomiting and diarrhea is part of avian flu. You need to replace those fluids,"
Larke said. "Prepare so you don't have to go to the grocery store. People go to grocery stores even when they feel sick, so that becomes a place for disease transmission."

Disposable gloves, antibacterial soap and disinfectant hand wipes also are recommended for supplies at home, the car and the workplace.

Fox suggests people get into the habit now of extra hand washing. Disease transmission can be from handshakes, door knobs, telephones, pens at grocery stores or doctor sign-in forms, computers, car door handles and gas station pumps.

"Keep hands off your eyes, nose and lips. Practice good hygiene, and be aware of precautions,"
Fox said. "Proper hand washing means soap between fingers, back of hands and under fingernails for a period as long as it takes to sing 'Happy Birthday.' Use the paper towel to turn off the faucet and open the door.

"We are teaching people to be observers. Watch for the glass of water served with fingers over the top of the glass. Just be more aware of what you touch and what you put in your mouth."


The Red Cross recommends a gallon of water a day per person and per pet. Stock nonperishable food, canned goods and a hand-operated can opener in the event of power outages.

People in other countries have routinely used face masks, even when they walk in public, but Americans have resisted. However, health officials here now warn face masks should be part of supplies in preparation for flu pandemic.

The Red Cross and other central Illinois health organizations have worked for more than a year on emergency plans for dealing with avian flu pandemic. The operative phrase is "not if but when."

Avian flu has a high mortality rate, but the unknowns about this disease are as disturbing as the documented statistics. The virus is mutating so rapidly, medical authorities are on heightened alert for the first U.S. cases.

According to statistics compiled by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in early July, there were 229 confirmed cases of avian flu worldwide and 131 fatalities, a mortality rate of 57 percent.

Dr. Thembi Conner-Garcia, internist with Methodist Medical Center, said if pandemic flu hits central Illinois, she recommends people stay at home if possible, even if they are not sick.

"If you are not needed at work, stay home," she said.

The earlier in the season the flu strikes, the more prolonged and severe it is expected to be. If it is late winter before outbreaks occur, it's expected to be short lived and give scientists time next summer to formulate a vaccine.

So far, transmission has been primarily from birds to humans, but Conner-Garcia said at least one documented case in Asia was traced from child to mother.

Dr. William Scott, assistant clinical professor at the University of Illinois and medical director of the Center for Occupational Health at OSF Saint Francis Medical Center, said, "My expectation is we are susceptible to a pandemic situation. It is possible and probable. When and where and how intense is speculation, but it is foolish to think we are immune."

Peoria City/County Health Department has information on the virus on its Web site and will track the progression and post critical information for the public.

"All of us in emergency preparedness look at our national complacency. We are so blessed to have what we do, and we don't think this could happen here. But on Sept. 10, no one anticipated Sept. 11. With Hurricane Katrina, people did not react even with one week's notice. Try to use those terrible emergencies. Don't think this (flu pandemic) couldn't happen here," said R. Jason Marks, emergency preparedness coordinator with the health department.

The Red Cross is working with area businesses on emergency planning.

Debra Sheehan, vice president of human resources at CEFCU, said the credit union is planning for the worst-case scenario with up to 40 percent of its work force out sick. That is unprecedented, she said.

CEFCU employees in noncritical areas will be reassigned to essential jobs, she said. The focus is to maintain service without interruption. The credit union headquarters near the Greater Peoria Regional Airport has backup electric generation in the event of power outages, she said.

Sheehan said CEFCU is investigating the contingency plans its vendors have formulated.

"We need to be sure cash is supplied to our ATMs," she said.

Fox said, "This is bigger than any one agency can handle. This could be our worst flu season since 1918, but there is a lot individuals can do themselves to be prepared and be self-sustaining."

For more information about avian flu pandemic, go to www.pcchd.org, www.pandemicflu.gov or www.redcrossillinois.org.

http://www.pjstar.com/stories/070906/TRI_BAB5HNUG.037.shtml

:vik:
 

JPD

Inactive
Patterns in bird flu cases remain mystery

http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailnational.asp?fileid=20060710.H07&irec=6

Tb. Arie Rukmantara, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Although his hometown has never seen bird flu, I Putu Widya is dismayed by the fact that Indonesia is one more death away from being on a par with Vietnam as countries with the world's most H5N1 fatalities.

What worries Putu is that he feels nobody has explained why the deadly virus is difficult to contain and why it kills people selectively.

"I'm so confused -- why some people die instantly due to bird flu and why others don't. That worries me," said the 27-year-old employee of a guest house in Ubud, Bali.

Bali is among four provinces that still have not seen human fatalities. The highly pathogenic virus had infected over 16 million chickens in 29 provinces.

Health Ministry spokeswoman Lili Sulistyowati said the government and scientists were still trying to figure out the mystery over the bird flu spread.

"We need thorough scientific research to explain why some people have a certain immunity against the virus and why others don't," she told The Jakarta Post.

The World Health Organization has confirmed that the H5N1 virus has mutated in one of the seven family clusters in Indonesia, but did not evolve into a more transmissible form.

However, what is not clear is why the virus infected only blood relatives but not spouses.

Critics have said research to uncover the mystery was too slow, leaving the public worried over the fact that the country continued to count more bird flu deaths.

Of the 54 confirmed human cases, Indonesia has seen 41 deaths of H5N1 since the first human casualty was recorded last year. It trails behind Vietnam with 42 deaths out of 93 confirmed cases. However, Vietnam has not recorded any deaths since a massive cull of chickens and birds last year.

The Indonesian government said it could not afford to compensate farmers for millions of infected chicken across the nation, saying it could only allot Rp 300 million this year, meaning that it could only pay for 30,000 culled fowl.

The 2005 State of the Environment report confirmed the government slow's response to the H5N1 outbreak. It said the H5N1 outbreak among poultry had actually taken place in 2003, but the Agriculture Ministry only announced it on Jan. 25 last year.

A senior Agriculture Ministry official told the Post that the late announcement was due to prolonged debate between animal health experts in determining the virus genotype, in which some experts insisted that it was not H5N1 but Newcastle disease.

An official with the National Commission on Bird Flu said none of the research was able to show exactly how to stop the virus from spreading.

But the official, who asked not to be named, acknowledged that research carried out by an animal health expert with Airlangga University in Surabaya, Chairul A. Nidom, exposed credible information.

"Nidom had said that there were limited human-to-human transmissions, although many experts were against him at the time, but now some have admitted that he might be correct," he said.

Nidom's research in Japan last year showed that some of the viruses had a form that made human genes receptive to it, thus making them easy to transmit.
 

JPD

Inactive
Poultry Indonesia Printing Edition, 2006 July

http://www.poultryindonesia.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=1119

Poultryindonesia.com, INDONESIA bird flu problem is very complicated and it has been very difficult to handle properly amid the complex environment. Coordinating Minister for the People’s Welfare Aburizal Bakrie admitted the handling of bird flu remained unsatisfactory because of the complex nature of the problem, including the government’s approach to dealing with the public.

Besides the lack of funds, many people suspected of being infected have refused to have their blood tested, the poultry industry is spreading across the country and the country is still deploying a persuasive approach to win the people’s participation in combating avian flu.

The National Committee for Avian Influenza Control coordinator, Bayu Krishnamurthi said the influenza expert group meeting recommended the government provide full funding, implement existing plans of action and intensify human disease surveillance. It also would include investigation and follow-up on contacts under coordination with the surveillance and response program in the agriculture sector.

He said, “In the short-term program, the government is recommended to intensify the dissemination of information on bird flu to the poultry industry and provide better compensation for mass culls of infected and at-risk birds and chickens.” He added that in the long run, the government should restructure the poultry industry to control the virus’ spread.

Authorities in the country claim that it would take $900 million over the next three years to fight the virus in humans and animals. However, only $59 billion has been allotted for 2006.

Indonesia, an archipelago of 17,000 islands with a population of 220 million people, has a patchwork of local, regional and national bureaucracies that often send mixed messages. The amount of decentralization is breathtaking. Any advice must reach nearly 450 districts, where local officials then decide whether to take action.

“The local government has the money, thus the power to decide what to prioritize,” said Hariyadi Wibisono, director of communicable disease control at the Ministry of Health. “If some district sees bird flu as not important, then we have a problem.”

Experts say the best way to battle bird flu in Indonesia is to tackle it in poultry. But that message is not always getting through. Many local governments have refused to carry out mass poultry slaughters in infected areas, and vaccination has been sporadic at best.



MINISTER of Agriculture, Anton Apriyantono said that his ministry would allocate Rp 100 billion this year for the free corn seeds, and Rp 500 billion next year to help open some 600,000 hectares of new corn plantation land in Sulawesi.

According to Anton, government will provide subsidies for farmers engaged in planting palm oil, cacao, rubber and corn in an effort to boost the country’s plantation output and create jobs. He said the assistance would take the form of loans channeled by banks to palm oil, cacao and rubber farmers. Corn farmers will receive seeds.

The government will allocate a total of Rp 1.7 trillion (US$182 million) this year to cover the subsidies, of which some Rp 200 billion would be distributed through state-owned Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI). BRI president director Sofyan Basir said that of the 18 percent interest rate imposed on farmers, the government will pick up 8 percent while farmers pay the remaining 10 percent.

Last year, the country produced 11.4 million tons of corn and imported around 400,000 tons. Demand for corn is expected to grow by at least 10 percent this year, with around 18,5 million tons estimated for 2010.

Due to the availability of idle land, the government has declared Sulawesi as the country’s center for corn production.

“The subsidies will be taken from the state budget. The government will continue providing them every year until 2009,” said Anton. The sector’s slow development is primarily due to mismanagement of resources by previous governments and corruption among officials and local regulatory bodies, who take advantage of unclear regulations.

At present, the nation’s agricultural growth stands at an average of 3.5 percent per annum.

MANY people from North Sumatra to Jakarta to South Sulawesi were refusing to support the government’s bird flu containment program disbelieving promises of compensation.

Coordinating Minister for the People’s Welfare Aburizal Bakrie said the government would establish a special task force to help cull birds in the affected area and carry out poultry vaccination. “We have allocated Rp 9 billion (about US$960,000) to deal with the cluster in North Sumatra and have asked the Finance Ministry to allocate Rp 125 billion for medicine and equipment,” he said.

The government implemented a special law on epidemics for anyone hindering or resisting efforts to control the spread of the bird flu virus. Penalties could include a one-year jail term of Rp 1 million fine.

His announcement followed the refusal of some residents of Kubu Simbelang -- the site of the North Sumatra cluster -- to cooperate with health officials. They beheaded a chicken and drank its blood early last month in an effort to show their village was free of H5N1.

The following days, residents of Tanah Karo in North Sumatra gathered in front of the governor’s office in Medan to protest a ministerial decree that orders a poultry cull in the regency. “We reject the decree because we don’t believe our fowl have caught bird flu,” a demonstrator told.

Issued on June 2 by Coordinating Minister for the People’s Welfare, the decree enforces strict flu monitoring in Tanah Karo and selective poultry culling. All poultry will be killed in a one-kilometer radius around every spot where bird flu cases are found.

The Agricultural Ministry has allocated Rp 30 billion (about US$3.3 million) to compensate villagers for the fowl that are culled. This works out at a compensation payment of Rp 10,000 per chicken, significantly lower than the birds’ market price of Rp 15,000 - Rp 30,000.

The ministry’s Avian Influenza Control Unit coordinator, Darminto, said public distrust of the program had been fueled by the government’s slow progress in combating the flu and people’s lack of knowledge about the deadly disease.
Recently, a team found an infected chicken in a traditional market, he said. “We know that the chickens in the market were brought in from several regions across Sumatra, including Deli Serdang regency,” he said. Bird flu killed thousands of poultry in Deli Serdang last year.
 

JPD

Inactive
Portugal beefs up measures against bird flu after outbreak in Spain

http://english.people.com.cn/200607/10/eng20060710_281533.html

Portugal has stepped up its anti-bird flu measures to prevent the further spread of the virus after neighboring Spain detected its first H5N1 case in a wild bird.

On Friday, Spain reported its first case of H5N1 bird flu in a waterfowl outside the northern city of Vitoria.

Portuguese Agriculture Minister Jaime Silva said Saturday that his Spanish counterpart has briefed him about the case.

Silva said Portuguese health authorities has long had contingency plans in place after cases of the highly pathogenic bird flu were reported elsewhere in the world, but it was not time yet for Portugal to raise the alarm.

He added around 6,000 poultry and birds in Portugal have been tested so far this year and no highly pathogenic bird flu virus has been detected.

On Saturday, the Portuguese national veterinarian association decided to beef up measures against the strain, especially in poultry farms and markets selling wild birds as well as poultry products.

The chairman of the association said it was only a matter of time similar cases would be found in Portugal as well since the virus was already recorded in neighboring Spain.

Luiz Kosta, head of the country's national ornithology research institute, said the crested grebe detected with the H5N1 virus in Spain, also lives in Portugal, so experts would not rule out the possibility the crested grebes in Portugal also carry the virus.

Kosta stressed the need to quickly ascertain how the crested grebe was infected with the H5N1 virus.

So far, it has only been confirmed that people contract the disease through direct contact with birds. But the World Health Organization warns of a possible global pandemic if the virus mutates into a strain easily transmitted from humans to humans.

Source: Xinhua
 

Bill P

Inactive
artcross.jpg



Hospitals struggle with overcrowding
More patients and a lack of beds and specialists mean people may wait hours in the emergency room
» FIRST OF THREE PARTS

By Helen Altonn
haltonn@starbulletin.com
AMBULANCES are rerouted daily from one hospital to another on Oahu because hospitals are full to capacity and emergency care systems severely stressed.

"It's not uncommon to have four or five hospitals on total reroute for two to six hours in peak periods," said Toby Clairmont, Healthcare Association of Hawaii emergency program manager.

This has a ripple effect, he said. When an ambulance has to bypass the nearest hospital and go to the next closest one, that hospital then becomes crowded and can't take more patients. And ambulances that have to go farther to drop off patients aren't available to pick up others.

CRISIS IN CARE
Today
Hospitals are full, emergency rooms are busy and ambulances are constantly rerouted for lack of openings.
Tomorrow
An emergency medicine chief talks about the hectic pace in the emergency room due to the backlog of patients waiting for open hospital beds.
Tuesday
How the state is preparing for a possible avian flu pandemic with hospital admissions already high and emergency rooms already full.

The Institute of Medicine and American College of Surgeons recently issued reports describing a national crisis in emergency care and problems confronting surgeons and patients because of the system's collapse.

Hawaii doesn't have some of the problems of mainland cities, Clairmont and Rich Meiers, Healthcare Association of Hawaii president and chief executive officer, said in an interview.

But hospital emergency departments are backed up because of increased patients, and lack of hospital beds and on-call specialists, they said.

Critically injured or ill patients have priority for emergency care while others may have to wait five to six hours, Clairmont said. But on the mainland, patients may wait 12 to 18 hours, he said.

Sunday afternoons are "very bad," with many people going to the ER because they don't feel well and want some medicine to go to work the next day, Meiers said. Or they didn't monitor their prescriptions and need a refill, he added.

But they may end up waiting for hours because patients arriving by ambulance or with chest pains have priority, he said.


CINDY ELLEN RUSSELL / CRUSSELL@STARBULLETIN.COM
Paramedic Teresa Allen worked a shift Thursday as a dispatcher at the Emergency Medical Services Communications Center located at the Honolulu International Airport.



Clairmont, a nurse, said people in the waiting room often are unaware of activity in the ER. "All they see is they're waiting, getting angry and frustrated. They wonder why the hospital doesn't provide more services. ERs are not good places to get primary care."
Patricia Dukes, Emergency Medical Services Division chief in Honolulu, said: "Ten years ago it was unusual for a hospital to be that full that often. Now it's becoming an issue for all hospitals."

She added: "We still need to drop off our patients somewhere. Thankfully, it's not to the level the mainland suffers, where ambulances are idling in the parking lot for an hour waiting to hand off a patient to somebody in the hospital. We may have to wait 15 minutes."

Once an ambulance is on hospital property, she said, the hospital must take the patient. But ambulances are "pretty much going around to all hospitals where there's an opening."

Everyone in the medical field must have "tolerance and understanding," Dukes said, explaining prehospital and emergency personnel meet constantly "to be sure they understand one side is not ignoring another and not deliberately trying to bring all patients to their hospital."

Patients often are held in emergency rooms because there are no beds for them in the hospital, the health officials said.

On the mainland, 700 hospitals and 435 emergency departments have closed in 10 years, with a loss of 198,000 beds, Clairmont said. No closings have occurred here, he said, but isle hospitals have been asked to report what has happened to the beds from 1993 to 2003.

Clairmont has been monitoring emergency departments in 19 Hawaii hospitals, as well as ambulance diversions, for 2 1/2 years.

"We looked at whether they can accept ambulances or can't at any given time. There's a middle ground called 'caution,' meaning the hospital is approaching capacity."

Hawaii was the second state after Texas to get an EM system to track capacity of emergency rooms and ambulances and coordinate emergency response resources, he said. The health care association installed and maintains the system and provides training.

Dispatchers are able to look at every hospital in the state on a big display in the Department of Emergency Services and see whether they are on reroute status and why -- whether they're full, under construction or for other reasons.

There are "some overrides," Clairmont said. For example, if Queen's is on reroute and a big accident occurs with serious injuries, patients can be taken there to the trauma center.

Every hospital with an emergency room was equipped with a computer and software two years ago so they can keep track of what's happening throughout the system, he said.

Data have been recorded every 15 minutes at every hospital for 2 1/2 years, Clairmont said, noting some "big reroute rates."

Emergency Medical Services is beginning to automate ambulance reports so when they get to the hospital, they don't have to write out a manual form, he said.

They're also using emergency response units--- a paramedic in a van -- to fill gaps, he said. These units can't transport anyone but can stabilize patients waiting for an ambulance to arrive.

EMS has 18 ambulances, two paramedic response units and about 200 field personnel, including paramedics and emergency medical technicians, Dukes said.

"We try not to take a patient to a hospital that isn't appropriate," she said. But, she pointed out, "Not only are there more patients, the acuity level, the illness or injury level, is climbing also.

"Yes, we still have people that go to ER because they feel they're going to get faster treatment, rather than make an appointment to go to the doctor. On the other hand, patients coming in by ambulance are sicker than they have been."

Perhaps not as many patients need to go to the hospital, Dukes said, but if somebody dials 911 and wants an ambulance, "We have a duty to respond and care for those patients."

She said Queen's will never close to critical traumas. "It doesn't matter how busy they are, they have said they will not close, and that is one thing paramedics can't fix in the field.

"We can't do surgery in the field, but do just about everything else. We deliver babies. We have medicines that will stop an asthma attack or help it. We can do things for people with heart attacks prior to getting to a hospital. There are a lot of things we can do to get the ball rolling and the hospital will pick it up.

"We don't save a life all the time, but what we do is make people feel better and we make them better," Dukes said. "And when we do save a life, that's a pinnacle right there."



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http://starbulletin.com/2006/07/09/news/story04.html
 

Bill P

Inactive
Bird flu virus mutating in limited manner, says UN health official

HLTH-UN-Flu-MUTATION
Bird flu virus mutating in limited manner, says UN health official

GENEVA, July 10 (KUNA) -- Senior UN System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza David Nabarro confirmed once again that the Bird Flu (Avian Flu) virus had mutated in an Indonesian village in a limited manner, and that the mutated virus is not the dangerous one that would result in a pandemic. Addressing reporters in a news conference today, Nabarro noted that experts are very vigilant and looking out for the possible dangerous one, which has not appeared yet.

He stressed that there is no explanation yet why some human beings are attacked by the H5N1 virus and others remain immune. Nabarro noted that the H5N1 virus has moved to many countries with a speed that creates concern, and that the Northern Hemisphere must be ready as it approaches the cold season. He cited a number of countries as success stories in combating the Avian Flu, among them Vietnam, Thailand, Turkey, Egypt and China where strong political leadership from the top have shown their resolve to combat the virus, coupled with compensation schemes for chicken breeders who had to do away with their chicken and cull them.

Nabarro stressed that African countries need the support of the international community in this regard as well as poor countries across the globe. For this reason he explained, a meeting will take place next December in Bamako, Mali under the auspices of the African Union (AU) to see what best is needed for Africa. (end) hn.


http://www.birdflubreakingnews.com/...et.kw/home/Story.aspx?Language=en&DSNO=884872
 
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<B><center>HLT-BIRD FLU-COSTS
<font size=+1 color=red>World Bank: severe flu pandemic could cost USD 1.25 trillion</font>

<A href="http://www.kuna.net.kw/Home/Story.aspx?Language=en&DSNO=884890">LINK</a></center>
GENEVA, July 10 (KUNA) -- World Bank representative in Geneva Joseph Ingram said Monday that the Bank's estimates forecast that a severe flu pandemic among humans could cost the global economy about 3.1 per cent of world GDP that is around USD 1.25 trillion.</b>

Team Leader, Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Geneva, Peter Batchelor, said that since January 2004, more than 209 million poultry had died or were culled worldwide. "Since 2003, the virus was known to have infected 228 people and killed 130 of them, mostly children and young adults," he added.

Representative of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Katherine Rooney said that the impact on the aviation industry had been felt after the events of the 11 of September 2001 and SARS. "In the event of a pandemic outbreak, the ICAO would need rapid answers to such questions as what screening measures were required at airports for travelers and cargo, among others.

The impact on the global aviation community of closing one local airport was vast," she added. Assistant Director-General for Communicable Diseases at the World Health Organization (WHO), Margaret Chan, said that Avian Influenza had taken two years to infect 60 countries. The officials made those statements on a special event on Avian Flu on the sidelines of ECOSOC meeting in Geneva till the end of this month. (end) hn.

tg
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>Bird flu will remain a threat for years to come, experts warn at UN special meeting</font>

<A href="http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=19141&Cr=bird&Cr1=flu">LINK</a></center>
10 July 2006 – While bird flu has been successfully checked in Western Europe and much of Southeast Asia apart from Indonesia, it is still expanding in Africa and will remain a threat for years to come, with the number of countries affected doubling to 60 in just the two months from February to April, United Nations officials said today. </b>

“In the majority of cases, wherever HPAI [highly pathogenic avian influenza] has made its appearance we, the global community and the countries concerned have been able to stop it in its tracks,” UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Deputy Director-General David Harcharik told a high-level meeting of the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) on the disease in Geneva.

But, he warned at a Council special event on bird flu, “HPAI poses a continuing threat and we must brace ourselves to go on fighting it, quite likely for years.”

Mr. Harcharik stressed that it was imperative to act quickly and decisively to stop HPAI wherever it appeared because so long as the H5N1 virus causing it stayed in circulation it would remain a threat to the international community. H5N1 had not so far mutated into a form transmittable from one human being to another, but should it do so, the result could be a pandemic of vast proportions, he said.

There have so far been only 229 confirmed human cases, 131 of them fatal, since the current outbreak started in South East Asia in December 2003, nearly all of them ascribed to contact with infected birds, according to the UN World Health Organization (WHO).

But since its onset experts have voiced concern that the virus could mutate and gain the ability to pass easily from human to human. The so-called Spanish flu outbreak of 1918, also starting from a bird flu virus, is estimated to have killed from 20 million to 40 million people worldwide by the time it run its course two years later.

Mr Harcharik said HPAI was still a source of concern in Indonesia and continued to spread in Africa, where it risked becoming endemic in several countries. He cited difficulties in enforcing appropriate control measures such as culling, farmer compensation and checks on animal movements in African countries. Another complication was illegal trade in poultry.

“Until such trade is effectively checked by stronger official veterinary authorities, and until better surveillance, alert-response, diagnostics and reporting is achieved, the risk will remain with us,” he added said.

In the two and half years of the present emergency, some 200 million poultry have been culled, causing losses of $10 billion in Southeast Asia alone.

ECOSOC President Ali Hachani noted that since February, the virus had dramatically expanded its geographical footprint. Between February and early April, 32 countries in Africa, Europe and the Middle East had reported infection in migratory or domestic birds, twice the number affected during the previous two and a half years.

“It is up to all of us to reverse this trend by committing to rapid effective and efficient action,” he said. “Funds pledged by donor countries should be disbursed with no further delay.” He stressed the specific role the UN has to play in supporting countries - setting standards monitoring progress, providing technical assistance and, when country capacity is limited, providing essential services.

Challenges still to be faced include functional coordination between animal and human health sectors, more effective mass communications and improved incentives to individuals and groups so that they report cases of disease and receive compensation for poultry that are culled as part of the control effort.

Such challenges are greatest in the poorest countries, principally in Africa, where scarce technical capacity and resources inhibit the operation of adequate veterinary and public health infrastructure.

WHO Assistant Director-General for Communicable Diseases Margaret Chan said her agency had carried out 50 country missions to assess the extent of the disease and to provide technical assistance.

UN International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) representative Katherine Rooney noted that in the event of a pandemic the ICAO would need rapid answers to such questions as what screening measures were required at airports for travellers and cargo.
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Beware the pandemic of hysteria</font>

July 11, 2006
<A href="http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/beware-the-pandemic-of-hysteria/2006/07/10/1152383674183.html">LINK</a></center>
We seem more concerned with what bird flu might turn out to be than with fixing existing health problems, writes Peter Curson.

A FEW years ago Bjorn Lomborg argued that with limited resources, to make the world a better place, we needed to give priority to global health and environmental issues and look at the most cost-effective way of achieving our long-term goals.</b>

So if we had a notional $2 billion to spend to make Australia an environmentally better and healthier place, what would we spend it on? Would climate change rank near the top? Would bird flu and the threat of a possible human pandemic be on our list, and would issues like indigenous health, the emerging HIV/AIDS crisis in the Pacific, obesity, workplace accidents or antibiotic resistance be among our priorities? Who decides such things? Is it government, big business, the media, or do they just seem to happen?

Climate change and bird flu fall into the same category. They are both important and few would debate their potential impact, but no one knows how severe they will be, or in the case of bird flu, whether it might usher in a human flu pandemic.

In the case of climate change, Lomborg has pointed out that the solutions so far advanced are extraordinarily expensive and perhaps we would do better to first confront some of the world's pressing issues where we might be able to produce much needed change. It would appear that many leaders from developing countries would agree with him, and to them the real issues are basic health care, malnutrition, water and sanitation and more schools, not climate change.

And back to bird flu. How much has Australia spent on planning for a possible human pandemic? No one would dispute the need to anticipate the next human flu pandemic and to plan rationally for it, but to me we have gone overboard.

Who, for example, actually knows if, when and where a pandemic might occur, and whether bird flu will be the fuse which ignites such an outbreak? The spacing and virulence of influenza pandemics remains a closed book to most of us. We simply do not know when the next pandemic might come, and whether it would be severe or mild. Does this justify the millions of dollars we have spent and the attention we have afforded to bird flu? Does it justify the "plandemic" of plans that have consumed our society over the last year? Everyone now seems to have a pandemic plan - governments, businesses, schools, churches, universities. There are more pandemic plans in the world than there are human cases of bird flu. Will they really "make all future health emergencies easier to handle"?

There is little doubt that bird flu is a disaster, particularly for the hundreds of thousands of people in Asia who have watched their animals and their livelihood swept away. But a related tragedy is how governments, the media and so-called experts have constructed a pandemic of fear and hysteria out of what is in essence an epidemic of infectious disease among animals.

Witness what happened last October, a month when there were more than 800 articles on bird flu in the Australian media. Small wonder there was a surge in demand for scripts for Tamiflu and Relenza in the same month, that people began to stockpile food and masks, and that a wide range of bird flu protection kits and products appeared on the market.

And back to our notional $2 billion. Should not some of it go to addressing Australia's appalling record in the area of workplace accidents and illnesses, or our equally appalling record of indigenous health? And what about the epidemic of obesity and the need to produce an accord between governments, manufacturers, business, the media and the public, about healthy eating and activity? And the list doesn't end there. Hospital-acquired infections are an emerging problem, as is the rapidly building HIV/AIDS crisis in the South Pacific. Surely, all or some of these should top our list and take precedence over yet another pandemic plan?

Why is it when it comes to health and the environment, we continue to be preoccupied with what might be, rather than what is?

Professor Peter Curson is director of the health studies program, division of environmental and life sciences, at Macquarie University.

There is little doubt that bird flu is a disaster, particularly for the hundreds of thousands of people in Asia who have watched their animals and their livelihood swept away. But a related tragedy is how governments, the media and so-called experts have constructed a pandemic of fear and hysteria out of what is in essence an epidemic of infectious disease among animals.

Witness what happened last October, a month when there were more than 800 articles on bird flu in the Australian media. Small wonder there was a surge in demand for scripts for Tamiflu and Relenza in the same month, that people began to stockpile food and masks, and that a wide range of bird flu protection kits and products appeared on the market.

And back to our notional $2 billion. Should not some of it go to addressing Australia's appalling record in the area of workplace accidents and illnesses, or our equally appalling record of indigenous health? And what about the epidemic of obesity and the need to produce an accord between governments, manufacturers, business, the media and the public, about healthy eating and activity? And the list doesn't end there. Hospital-acquired infections are an emerging problem, as is the rapidly building HIV/AIDS crisis in the South Pacific. Surely, all or some of these should top our list and take precedence over yet another pandemic plan?

Why is it when it comes to health and the environment, we continue to be preoccupied with what might be, rather than what is?

Professor Peter Curson is director of the health studies program, division of environmental and life sciences, at Macquarie University.
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>Hawaii applies for full allotment of pandemic vaccine</font>

By Tara Godvin
Associated Press
July 10
<A href="http://starbulletin.com/2006/07/10/news/story05.html">LINK</a></center>
Hawaii did not wait for the Aug. 1 deadline to put its name down for more than 100,000 doses of anti-flu medicine the state could buy with federal help to prepare for a possible pandemic.

As soon as officials were notified about a week ago of the number of anti-flu doses the federal government would make available to Hawaii, letters were sent to both federal officials and the medicine's maker, Roche Laboratories Inc.</b>

"We do have our foot in every door we can get it into," said Dr. Chiyome Fukino, director of the state Department of Health.

To prepare for the possibility of a pandemic, the federal government is stockpiling Tamiflu and other anti-flu medications, which can reduce the symptoms associated with influenza. The Bush administration plans to buy enough to treat 44 million people.

States have the option buy more if they want, with the federal government paying a quarter of the costs, up to a prescribed amount for each state.

In all, states could use the subsidy to buy anti-flu medications for an additional 31 million people. The Department of Health and Human Services had set a July 1 deadline for states to indicate whether they would move forward with the purchase. That deadline was later extended to Aug. 1.

Hawaii has been allocated 131,111 doses under the subsidized program.

And the state plans to buy every one of them using the more than $11 million allocated by the Legislature in a bill passed this session to prepare the state for a novel strain of influenza virus, Fukino said.

Once that purchase is made, the islands will have a total of more than 317,000 doses stockpiled for its use.

That is enough for just about a quarter of the state's population, which is the amount authorities estimate states should be prepared to treat in the event of a flu pandemic, Fukino said.

Not every state jumped at the chance to purchase the new doses of medicine.

Oklahoma's lawmakers allocated enough money to purchase only about 7 percent of the more than 368,000 it could have purchased with the help of federal funds. The state's epidemiologist, Dr. Brett Cauthen, said the state was struggling to figure out just how much insurance against a pandemic Oklahoma really needs.

Officials fear that the H5N1 virus -- which birds have carried from Asia to the Middle East, Europe and Africa -- could mutate and spread from human to human. According to the World Health Organization, at least 229 people are known to have contracted bird flu since 2003, and 131 have died.

As a tourist destination that draws a good portion of its visitors from Asia, Hawaii has been taking care to prepare for the possibility of a pandemic, which includes developing protocols to potentially quarantine an entire jet should a passenger test positive for a suspect virus.

"I don't think anybody is ever going to be a 100 percent prepared, but we are much more prepared than we ever have been," Fukino said. "And we keep working on being even more prepared."
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Schools advised to close in event of flu outbreak </font>

Katherine Demopoulos
Monday July 10, 2006
Guardian Unlimited
<A href="http://education.guardian.co.uk/schools/story/0,,1817165,00.html?gusrc=rss">LINK</a></center>
Schools will be advised to close if a flu pandemic hits the UK, but the final decision to turn away pupils will rest with headteachers, according to new government advice issued today.

It is unclear how children would be affected in the event of an outbreak, the report says, because different virus strains would affect sectors of the population differently.</b>

However, children are highly efficient spreaders of infection, both among themselves and within their families, the report says, because they secrete larger quantities of virus and for longer than adults.

The central government would issue general advice that schools should close if a pandemic hit their area, while local authorities would advise schools on when that had happened. The final decision on whether to close a school would then rest with the governing body of the school or the headteacher.

Local authorities should take a lead now in contingency planning and aim to keep schools open as long as possible, the report says.

Teachers would still be required to come into school - unless they were ill themselves or caring for family members - and schools would need to consider how staff could deliver and mark assignments remotely. The DfES plans to issue more advice later this year on remote schooling.

Schools would liaise with their local authority as the pandemic progressed and might even open to pupils who had recovered from the illness.

However, sixth form pupils and students of further education colleges, who would be more resilient against the virus, should be able to continue attending lessons, depending on the strain of flu.

A flu pandemic could come in waves broken up by weeks or months, affecting different areas at different times and causing between 54,000 and 700,000 deaths.

"If the next flu pandemic were similar to those in the 1950s and 1960s, most of the additional deaths would be among the elderly, but the 1918-19 Spanish-flu pandemic had a different profile, with young adults being most affected."

A DfES spokesperson said: "This guidance has been produced in consultation with other government departments as part of the government's coordinated efforts to encourage sensible planning across all sectors.

"It is part of the government's ongoing contingency planning and not a response to an increase in risk. We believe it will help local authorities, schools, colleges and providers of other children's services to develop appropriate plans to address any human flu pandemic, as part of the wider emergency response."

Chris Keates, the general secretary of National Association of Schoolmaster and Union of Women Teachers, said: "There is much sound advice in the guidance. However, if the country was in the grip of a pandemic, schools should be treated no differently than other workplaces. There is a worrying 'business as usual' flavour to the guidance.

Ms Keates said the union "rejects completely" the proposal that decisions to close schools should be left to headteachers, and reminded schools of their duty to their staff.

Remote learning needs more detailed consideration, she said. "There must be no question of introducing strategies which would place teachers under increased pressure or workload, require them to divulge personal information such as phone or email addresses or require them to visit pupils homes. There is a national curriculum and a national broadcasting network. Most homes have terrestrial TV channels and the BBC should be pressed to step into the breach if there is widespread closure of schools."

Steve Sinnott, the general secretary of the National Union of Teachers, welcomed the decision to allow headteachers to decide on school closures but said an emergency fund and awareness training should be made available to them.

"It's an enormous responsibility. I think if a government think it's a serious risk there's got to be extra resources available for headteachers," he said.
 
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<B><center>Avian influenza still expanding in Africa
<font size=+1 color=red>Disease widely checked but could pose threat for years</font>

<A href="http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2006/1000359/index.html">LINK</a></center>
10 July 2006, Rome/Geneva - While avian influenza has been successfully checked in Western Europe and much of Southeast Asia apart from Indonesia, it is still expanding in Africa and will remain a threat for years to come, FAO Deputy Director-General David Harcharik told a high-level meeting of the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) in Geneva today. </b>

“In the majority of cases, wherever HPAI [highly pathogenic avian influenza] has made its appearance we, the global community and the countries concerned have been able to stop it in its tracks,” Mr Harcharik said, speaking at an ECOSOC special event meeting on bird flu.

But “HPAI poses a continuing threat and we must brace ourselves to go on fighting it, quite likely for years,” he warned. HPAI, he said, was still a source of concern in Indonesia and continued to spread in Africa, where it risked becoming endemic in several countries.

Mr Harcharik cited difficulties in enforcing appropriate control measures such as culling, farmer compensation and checks on animal movements in African countries. Another complication was illegal trade in poultry.

“Until such trade is effectively checked by stronger official veterinary authorities, and until better surveillance, alert-response, diagnostics and reporting is achieved, the risk will remain with us,” Mr Harcharik said.

Continuing threat

Mr Harcharik stressed it was imperative to act quickly and decisively to stop HPAI wherever it appeared because so long as the H5N1 virus causing HPAI stayed in circulation it would remain a threat to the international community.

H5N1 had not so far mutated into a form transmittable from one human being to another. But should it do so, the result could be a pandemic of vast proportions, he said.

In the two and half years of the present avian influenza emergency, some 200 million poultry have been culled, causing losses of 10 billion dollars in Southeast Asia alone. At last count in early July there had been 229 human cases of H5N1 infection resulting in the deaths of 131 persons.
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>States Buying Anti-Viral Drugs In Case of Avian Flu Pandemic - Federal Government to Negotiate Directly With Roche For Tamiflu - Bird Flu</font>
July 9th 2006
<A href="http://www.bestsyndication.com/Articles/2006/dan_wilson/current_events/06-07/070906_federal_government_negotiating_with_roche_to_buy_tamilflu.htm">LINK</a></center>
Many states are working out a deal with the Federal government in an effort to save money on Tamilfu. The State of New York is spending about $18 million on Tamilfu and $5 million on Relenza. This is after the state received a C+ grade from the American College of Emergency Physicians in January for not being prepared for the bird flu. The C+ rating is still better than the C- rating given to the nation as a whole. </b>

The potential disaster caused by the bird flu, if it mutates, could overwhelm the emergency and hospital systems. Mark Johnson of the Associate Press points out that the purchase of the antiviral drugs is only part of the solution.

The director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University's Joseph L. Mailman School of Public Health, Dr. Irwin Redlener, believes this is just part of a larger strategy. Most of the nation is unprepared according to the report.

Redlener said, “Tamiflu is not a complete answer by any stretch of the imagination. It's really much more concerning to me that our public health and hospital system is not ready to take care of a large number of patients."

The Federal government is stocking up on antiviral drugs too. The AP report said that the Bush administration is planning to buy enough antivirals to treat 44 million people.

Another AP report appearing in the Arizona East Valley Tribune indicates the U.S. is negotiating with Roche, the maker of Tamiflu, in an effort to lower the cost. The government may save up to 25 percent by buying in bulk. The report says that “Arizona and Montana want only a little extra help. Meanwhile, states such as Washington say they plan to take full advantage of the next few weeks to determine the right amount of drugs to purchase.”


The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) set a July 1st deadline to put their order in. Later the deadline was moved to August 1st. HHS spokesperson said that the deadline does not obligate states to a specific course of action, but rather serves as guidance to HHS for its planning.
 

Bill P

Inactive
This message is not new, but bears repeating:

Avian flu pandemic

Sunday, July 9, 2006



Health officials are recommending emergency supplies for two to three weeks in the event of avian flu pandemic and quarantines.

- One gallon of water per day for each person and pet.

- Nonperishable, high-protein food that requires little or no cooking.

- Ready-to-eat canned meats, fruits and vegetables. Be sure to have a manual can opener in the event of electric failures.

- Canned juices, milk and soup.

- High energy foods like peanut butter, jelly, granola bars, trail mix.

- Vitamins.

- Assemble a first aid kit and include prescription drugs, contact lens supplies and extra eyeglasses as well as over-the-counter medications, face masks and disposable gloves.

- Toiletries and personal hygiene items.

- Plastic bucket with a tight-fitting lid and garbage bags.

- Disinfectant, household bleach, soap, disinfectant wipes.

- Flashlights and batteries, battery-operated radio, fire extinguisher, basic tools and waterproof matches.

- Pet supplies.

- In the event of vomiting, diarrhea and the resultant dehydration, the American Red Cross recommends this recipe for an electrolyte drink: 1 quart water, 1/2 teaspoon baking soda; 1/2 teaspoon table salt; 3 to 4 tablespoons sugar; 1/4 teaspoon salt substitute; mix ingredients well and flavor with lemon juice or sugar-free Kool-Aid.

- Use surgical or face masks when caring for ill family members.

- Disinfect door knobs, switches, handles, toys and other surfaces commonly touched around home or workplace. Disinfectant solution: 1 gallon water; 1/4 cup bleach. Mix a fresh batch every time you use it.

- Symptoms of avian flu are similar to those of seasonal flu and include: diarrhea; extreme tiredness; headache; body ache; cough; sore throat; fever and chills; runny or stuffy nose.

- Avian flu is mutating rapidly and currently is transmitted primarily from birds to humans. Avoid all contact with infected birds. The mortality rate for avian flu is over 50 percent.

http://www.pjstar.com/stories/070906/TRI_BAAN1PC6.027.shtml
 

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
NYC Flu Prep Plan

MAYOR BLOOMBERG AND HEALTH COMMISSIONER FRIEDEN UNVEIL PANDEMIC INFLUENZA PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE PLAN

Comprehensive Response Plan to Limit Impact of Influenza Pandemic Involves Coordination Among City, State, Federal, Private and Nonprofit Entities; Pandemic Influenza Strain Currently Does Not Exist But Preparations Necessary


Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg and Health Commissioner Dr. Thomas R. Frieden today unveiled New York City's Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response plan. The plan – created in response to a potential global influenza pandemic – covers critical health areas needed in a pandemic, including disease monitoring, laboratory capacity, vaccine and medicine delivery, hospital preparedness, mental health, and communications. The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DOHMH) has been engaged in pandemic flu planning for several years and over the past year has developed this plan with City, State and Federal input, as well as feedback from non-governmental partners in the health care, business and non-profit communities. The plan is part of a coordinated multi-agency emergency response that includes operational planning and preparedness by the Office of Emergency Management (OEM) and the Fire and Police Departments. The Mayor and Health Commissioner were joined for the announcement today at DOHMH headquarters by OEM Commissioner Joseph F. Bruno, Health and Hospitals Corporation President Alan Aviles, FDNY Chief of Counter-Terrorism and Emergency Preparedness Joseph Pfeifer, Medical Director of the NYPD Counter-Terrorism Unit Dr. Dani-Margot Zavasky and Greater New York Hospital Association (GNHYA) President Kenneth E. Raske.

"As the nation's most densely populated city and as a major port of entry, New York City may encounter emerging public health threats before any other city," said Mayor Bloomberg. "As a leader in public health emergency preparedness, we have to be ready for the possibility – no matter how remote – of a pandemic flu. Having a comprehensive plan in place will ensure that we respond rapidly to an influenza pandemic. Through interagency coordination and response, if there is a pandemic, New Yorkers will be less likely to become sick, more likely to get good medical care if they do get sick, and have less disruption to their day-to-day activities."

"This plan provides the framework for a coordinated response to help protect the health of New Yorkers, and it will be refined on an ongoing basis," said Commissioner Frieden. "A severe pandemic would inevitably cause significant illness and social and economic dislocation, even with the best laid and most effectively implemented plans. Our plan will help minimize the impact if there is a pandemic. Without a vaccine, and with medications of limited supply and effectiveness, traditional measures of reducing disease spread - such as covering your mouth when you cough or sneeze, or staying home from work or school if you have fever - would be crucial."

Through its readily mobilized group of trained and dedicated professionals, and in conjunction with City, State and Federal partners, DOHMH would help the City detect, respond to, and recover from a possible flu pandemic by focusing activities around four primary areas:

1. Limit severe illness and death from influenza.
2. Provide appropriate influenza evaluation and care.
3. Maintain essential medical services.
4. Communicate rapidly, accurately, and frequently with the public, the medical community and others using all available media.

The plan focuses heavily on the health care system's ability to respond to an influenza pandemic. It describes a wide range of response measures, including how the City would:

* Implement infection control procedures in health care facilities and in workplaces;
* Intensify disease monitoring to track trends in hospitalizations and deaths, and guide response by optimizing detection and treatment;
* Make the most effective possible use of limited medical resources, such as antiviral medications and ventilators;
* Provide guidance to hospitals to address surge capacity;
* Increase laboratory capacity to provide accurate and rapid laboratory diagnostic testing as indicated;
* Enact disease containment measures in community settings if indicated (e.g., closing schools, limiting public gatherings);
* Regularly communicate the most up-to-date information to the public and medical community;
* Address mental health needs of communities, front line health care workers, and others, especially vulnerable populations such as children and elderly, homeless, disabled, and homebound people.

In a worst case scenario, a pandemic that produces widespread serious illness could significantly impact all sectors of society and last for at least several months. The health care system would be overburdened and there could be dramatic reductions in workforce availability in all sectors as employees become ill or remain home to care for sick family members. This is why business continuity planning is so important for organizations in both the commercial and non-profit sectors.

"The City's public hospitals have 11 emergency departments that are well equipped and have well trained staff to serve as first respondents to any large scale crisis," said HHC President Aviles. "Our facilities conduct drills throughout the year to ensure our continuing readiness as a first line of emergency response, and we also participate in the citywide emergency preparedness exercises. A pandemic would certainly tax our system, but we stand ready with significant emergency resources, personnel and expertise to help meet the needs of our patients and the public."

"GNYHA is committed to ensuring that its member hospitals are prepared to respond to emergencies that could take place in the New York region," said GNYHA President Ken Raske. "I commend Mayor Bloomberg and Commissioner Frieden for their continued leadership in preparing New York City for any public health emergency that we may face."

Over the past several years, DOHMH has worked closely with the emergency services, health care, business and not-for-profit sectors to prepare for a possible flu pandemic. The City has participated in more than 50 tabletop, functional, and full-scale exercises and drills over the past five years to test, assess and strengthen response capabilities. For example, a large-scale multi-agency field exercise called PODEX focused on response to a biological hazard. The two-day drill, held in June 2005, tested the City's ability to provide medication to individuals affected by a biological attack and examined interagency coordination in accordance with the Citywide Incident Management System (CIMS), overall emergency response, and the integration of federal, state and regional assets.

In addition, individual City agencies have also staged biological hazard response exercises. Each year, the Fire Department conducts its BIOPOD exercise. The most recent, in November 2005, tested the FDNY's response to a simulated biological agent that had the capacity to be easily passed from human to human. The FDNY has held two previous BIOPOD exercises all of which tested the efficacy of distributing to first responders vaccines and other necessary medications in the event of exposure to biological hazards.

The Police Department has also conducted several agency drills to test their response to a potential biological or infectious disease outbreak. In the event of a pandemic, the NYPD would be responsible for safeguarding medications and vaccines upon their arrival and during their distribution. In addition, the NYPD would provide security, as well as traffic and crowd control at approximately 200 points of distribution citywide. The Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response plan draws on lessons learned from these efforts, providing a comprehensive, scalable, and flexible strategy to protect the health of New Yorkers in the event of a flu pandemic.

"The Fire Department is committed to taking every step necessary to better prepare for the emerging challenges we face," said Commissioner Scoppetta. "This comprehensive response plan is designed to ensure that both the Fire Department and the City draw upon the best expertise possible. Coupled with the FDNY's own preparedness initiatives, we'll ensure that our Firefighters, EMTs and Paramedics will be able to continue to respond to and provide care to individuals impacted by a possible pandemic. Our mission is, and always will be, the safety of New Yorkers."

"The NYPD has taken an active part in all of the City's biological emergency exercises testing response capabilities to intentional or natural infectious disease outbreaks," said Commissioner Kelly. "In addition, the NYPD regularly conducts its own internal exercises, continuously drilling our responses to a variety of emergencies. We also have a robust plan and capability to distribute medications and vaccines, when these become available, to all Department personnel."

In the event of a pandemic, OEM would assist in the implementation of decisions made by DOHMH. In addition, OEM would implement its continuity of operations plans to help the City to continue to provide essential services to residents. New Yorkers can also do their part by preparing themselves for any emergency by creating a household disaster plan. Steps include stocking non-perishable food, water, medications, and other essential household items in advance.

"OEM will help make sure City government continues to provide essential services in the event of a pandemic flu emergency," said Commissioner Bruno. "While no one can predict what types of emergencies the future may hold, having a family preparedness plan, a ‘go bag' and supplies at home will help ensure that all New Yorkers are as ready as possible for anything that comes our way."

A pandemic influenza strain does not currently exist. However, a new strain of avian influenza (H5N1) has been spreading in bird populations in Asia for several years. While the disease has a high fatality rate among people who have become ill, nearly all have gotten sick through direct contract with poultry. A genetic change in this virus could conceivably allow the disease to become more widespread. If that were to happen, a number of factors would determine whether a pandemic would occur, including how readily the disease spreads, how virulent it is to humans, and whether a vaccine is available.

http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/html/pr2006/mr238-06.shtml
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http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/html/cd/cd-panflu-plan.shtml

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UN Warns Bird Flu Spreading More Rapidly
By Lisa Schlein
Geneva
10 July 2006


Avian influenza experts say bird flu is traveling across the globe at much greater speed. They warn against complacency, and urge countries to implement pandemic preparedness plans without delay. Lisa Schlein reports for VOA from Geneva, where experts are meeting to assess how prepared the world is to cope with a possible pandemic.

The senior U.N. System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza, David Nabarro, says between 2003 and 2006, the deadly H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus was detected in 16 countries. He says that number has doubled in just six months.

"I would say it is certainly moving into more and more countries, with a speed that is, for me, and for my colleagues, a continuing and serious cause of concern," he said.

Another cause of concern is the high mortality rate. WHO Assistant Director General Margaret Chan says 228 human cases of bird flu have been reported in 10 countries, and 130 of them were fatal.

"Now this is, in terms of avian influenza, a very devastating disease," he said. "We have never seen, what we call, such a high case-fatality rate. That means more than…50 percent of people affected by the infection eventually succumb to the disease."

WHO says avian flu is still primarily an animal disease. Humans have become ill after direct contact with a sick bird. In recent months, there have been some limited cases of human-to-human transmission, most notably in Indonesia.

Although the risk for humans remains minimal, WHO acknowledges the H5N1 virus could mutate into a form that could spread easily among humans, causing a pandemic that could potentially kill millions.

The deputy director general of the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, David Harcharik, says, many countries in Asia, the Middle East and Europe have successfully stopped the spread of bird flu. They have done so by employing methods, such as the culling of sick poultry, disinfecting and vaccinating birds. Harcharik says, once H5N1 is stopped in poultry, human cases also stop.


"Of special concern is Africa, where there is a real risk of avian influenza becoming endemic in several countries, at least in the short term," he said. "One reason is that, it is very difficult to enforce appropriate control measures in the African context. Culling, compensation to farmers and effective checks on animal movements, which have worked well in Europe and East Asia are much harder to achieve in Africa."

Harcharik says another worry is the illegal poultry trade in Africa. He says the movement of poultry and poultry products across borders is one of the main vehicles for spreading the virus. He warns the risk will remain until effective control is achieved.
 
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