05/30 & 31 | Daily Bird Flu Thread: 6 more bird flu cases in Indonesia

Link to yesterday's thread: http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=199051

Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza A/(H5N1) Reported to WHO:

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2006_05_12/en/index.html

CNN


Monday, May 29, 2006 Posted: 2217 GMT (0617 HKT)

(CNN) -- Six more human cases of the H5N1 strain of avian flu have occurred in Indonesia, the World Health Organization has said, citing Indonesia's Ministry of Health.

Three of the cases were fatal.

That means 48 of the 224 human cases confirmed worldwide by the organization have occurred in Indonesia. Thirty-six of the Indonesian cases have proven fatal.

Only Vietnam, with 93 cases, 42 of them fatal, has tallied more.

Four of the infected people had been exposed to chickens or pigeon feces.

Investigators are still looking into how the other two contracted the virus.

WHO spokesman Dick Thompson told CNN it was highly unlikely that human-to-human transmission was responsible for any of the six cases, given that all but two they were separated by great distances.

And those two -- a brother and sister who have since died -- both got sick on the same day, making it unlikely one could have infected the other, Thompson said.

The six new cases are not related to a cluster of at least seven cases -- all of them blood relatives -- reported last week in Kubu Sembelang village, Karo District, of North Sumatra, Thompson said.

WHO has said the virus in that cluster may have been spread by human-to-human contact. The overwhelming majority of human cases to date have been linked to exposure to poultry.

Seven of eight family members died in the outbreak. The first case was not confirmed to be H5N1 since the body was buried without tissue samples being taken.

Health officials have long been concerned that a mutation in the virus would make it spread easily among humans. But laboratory tests show that has not happened, Thompson said.

Researchers are working on the hypothesis that the family members involved in the cluster were genetically more susceptible to H5N1, since spouses did not get sick, Thompson said.

-- CNN's Miriam Falco contributed to this report

http://edition.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/conditions/05/29/birdflu.indonesia/index.html

as told by Austrailian News

Six bird flu cases in Indonesia​

From: Reuters
From correspondents in Jakarta

May 30, 2006


THE World Health Organisation confirmed six new human cases of bird flu in Indonesia overnight and said three of the infected people had died.
The new cases bring WHO's global human toll from bird flu to 127 dead, with 224 cases in 10 countries.

WHO said none of the new cases was associated with a suspicious-looking family cluster on the northern part of Indonesia's Sumatra island, and said none of the victims appeared to have infected anyone else.

"The cases are widely dispersed geographically," WHO said in a statement.

And while some of the people appear to have had contact with birds, the global health agency and local officials were working to find out how two others became infected.

They are a 43-year-old man from South Jakarta, who developed symptoms on 6 May but who has recovered, and a 15-year-old girl from West Sumatra, who became ill on 17 May and who is still in the hospital, WHO said.

Another new case was that of an 18-year-old man from Bandung on Java island who had tested negative earlier in Hong Kong. The latest result classified him as a H5N1 case, said I Nyoman Kandun, director-general of communicable disease control.

The teenager was the brother of a 10-year-old girl who was tested positive for H5N1 by the Hong Kong laboratory last week. Both died last Wednesday.

Local health authorities believe sick chickens infected the brother and sister, as poultry started dying in their village a few days before they became ill, Mr Kandun said.

The Bandung siblings are considered the seventh family cluster in Indonesia, but their case is not triggering as much concern as the cluster in north Sumatra, where H5N1 killed seven people in a single family.

Experts say limited human-to-human transmission of the virus may have occurred in the Sumatran family because several took care of relatives who became ill earlier.

WHO said they may have picked up the virus during such close and prolonged contact.

However, genetic analyses of the virus have not found any of the changes known to allow the virus to spread efficiently among people - a necessary precursor to the start of a pandemic.

"An additional case occurred in a 39-year-old man from West Jakarta. He developed symptoms on 9 May, was hospitalized on 16 May, and died on 19 May," WHO said in a statement on its website at http://www.who.int.

"The investigation determined that the man cleaned pigeon faeces from blocked roof gutters at his home shortly before symptom onset. No further potential source of exposure was identified."

Pigeons are among the dozens of bird species known to have been infected with H5N1.

Since re-emerging in Asia in late 2003, the virus has spread especially fast in the past six months, moving into parts of the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

Indonesia has been hard hit by avian influenza, with 49 cases reported by the Ministry of Health and 36 deaths.

The virus is very difficult to track in the nation, which is made up of 17,508 islands that stretch 5120km from east to west and where more than 500 languages are spoken by diverse ethnic groups.

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,19303573-38196,00.html

***

Are any of the cases anywhere near the eartquack areas and if so are they taking any precations so the reascuer don't carry the disease home

Sole Bird Flu Survivor Shuns Treatment ​

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/world/3913069.html

By MARGIE MASON AP Medical Writer
© 2006 The Associated Press

MEDAN, Indonesia — The sole survivor in a cluster of Indonesian relatives infected with bird flu lies in an open-air hospital room, chickens pecking outside his door and visitors shuffling in and out without masks or protective gear.

The patient, Johannes Ginting, is still very weak but seems unconcerned. He even fled the hospital when he first fell ill with the H5N1 virus, and has since resisted treatment, balking at the bird flu drug Tamiflu and other medicine.

"We had actually given masks and gloves to the family, and we informed them how dangerous this disease is, but they didn't cooperate with us," said Nurrasyid Lubis, deputy director of Adam Malik Hospital. "We also informed him how dangerous it is, but he didn't believe us."

On the other side of the hospital, health workers got a briefing on the importance of infection control. Posters depicting chickens and a burning globe are on walls throughout the building warning of bird flu, which has killed at least 124 people worldwide since it began ravaging Asian poultry in late 2003.

A quarter of the human deaths have been Indonesia, which has been criticized for acting too slowly to stop the spread of the disease.

Lack of public awareness is part of the problem, health experts say, noting that many people in the sprawling countryside have never heard of bird flu. Others, like 25-year-old Ginting, deny it is a problem.

At least six of Ginting's relatives from tiny Kubu Simbelang village in North Sumatra have died of the virus. A seventh was buried before samples could be taken, but the World Health Organization considers her part of the cluster _ the largest ever reported.

The case has drawn much attention because the infections have not been linked to contact with birds. Experts suspect limited human-to-human transmission may have occurred, but say no one else outside the family has fallen ill.

The disease remains hard for people to catch and most human cases so far have been traced to contact with infected birds. But experts fear the virus will mutate into a highly contagious form that passes easily among people, possible sparking a pandemic. They stress, however, that has not happened in Kubu Simbelang.

Ginting's mother, who declines to reveal her name, sits on a straw mat on a grassy patch outside her son's hospital room, at the end of a row of ground-floor rooms that open to the outside.

Despite losing three children and four grandchildren, she is not afraid to care for her son, who must be fed and is too weak to sit unaided since falling ill May 4.

She said he is slowly recovering, but still suffers a cough and struggles to speak.

"I'm not afraid. I don't even wear a mask or anything," she said. "If it spreads, I will be the first one to die."

Ginting's mother chewed on betel nut, a mild natural stimulant, as hens, roosters and chicks scratched the ground just feet away. Several cats also roamed outside her son's door.

"Why would I have to be afraid of chickens around here," she said. "The ones who died, they didn't eat chicken, after all."

The family, which has spoken to few outsiders, has been the subject of intense international interest because of the number of its members who were infected. WHO officials say it marks an important development with the H5N1 virus, which is thought to have been transmitted among people in a handful of other cases.

So far, scientists think, all such case have involved passing the virus between blood relatives. Some experts theorize that may mean some people have a genetic susceptibility to the disease, but there is no evidence to support that.

Many people in Ginting's farming village do not believe bird flu caused the deaths because no spouses or neighbors also got sick. Many, including Ginting and his family, have been uncooperative with health authorities.

"Johannes doesn't want to be injected, doesn't want to take Tamiflu or other antibiotics," Lubis said, although he added that the patient ha become more agreeable since first being hospitalized.

There is also a lack of knowledge about preventative steps, as shown by Ginting's uncovered visitors.

Lubis said the hospital held a seminar for the staff Monday to discuss infection control measures.

As he spoke, a woman outside Ginting's room picked through his garbage without gloves or other germ-protective gear. Family members of patients in the adjoining room lounged on the floor near his open door.

WHO guidelines call for health workers to wear masks, gloves, gowns, goggles and special boots when coming into contact with a bird flu patient, WHO spokesman Dick Thompson said.

Nurses and doctors who entered Ginting's room did wear protective gear, but no one interfered with the unprotected visitors.

Lubis said the hospital has done the best it can to isolate Ginting.

"For the room, we've done the maximum effort we can do," he said. "We don't know what more we can do beyond that."

New Suspect H5N1 Bird Flu Cluster in Bandung Indonesia ​

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05290606/H5N1_Bandung_Suspect.html

Recombinomics Commentary
May 29, 2006

The patient, according to him, has been given by medical treatment and was done by the inspection of blood, the throat and other. The sample of the patient's inspection will be sent to Jakarta, on Monday (29/5) and when positive results, will be given by medical treatment in the first stage. "Hopefully, his condition continued to improve.

Moreover tomorrow him, on Friday (26/5), his brother-in-law who worked as the driver in a company, has wrought again as usual. However, on Saturday (27/5), his brother-in-law again was hot and breathless. Finally my brother-in-law was brought to the community health centre. "But from puskemas even was reconciled to RSHS Bandung," he revealed.

It was further that LK explained, his brother's family and himself did not maintain the poultry, like the chicken or birds. However the neighbour in his house environment, indeed many that maintained the chicken. Moreover, in his area also had the poultry farm. Nevertheless, had not spread the news had the chicken that died.

But on Saturday, last May 27 had the chicken inspection from the Livestock Breeding Service. These chickens were gathered from each RT. results of the inspection, he said had eight positive chickens was affected by bird flu and was destroyed

The above translation describes a new suspect H5N1 bird flu family cluster in Bandung in West Java. The new cluster is near the fatal familial cluster that was just confirmed by WHO. The new WHO website shows the earlier confirmed H5N1 positive cases in West Java, which has had 13 cases of which 10 were fatal..

H5N1 isolated from these patients has a novel cleavage site, as do most of the isolates from Jakarta and Tangerang.

Yogjakarta H5N1 Sequences Similar to Human Tangerang ​

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05290604/H5N1_Yogjakata_Sequence.html

Recombinomics Commentary
May 29, 2006

The recent earthquake near Yogjakarta has focused attention on H5N1 bird flu. There are two public sequences on isolates from Yogijakarta listed below. They were both isolated in 2004 and are most closely related to each other. However, a number of polymorphisms in HA are shared by a small number of isolates which are all in Indonesia. Included in this group is the only human H5N1 HA sequence publicly available.

As described earlier, the human sequences is a related to the Wajo isolate. Recently new H5N1 isolates from birds in Indonesia have been made public and included in the list are those closely related to the bird isolates from Wajo, Yogijakarta, and the human sequence.

Although these sequences are closest to the human sequence, none contain the novel HA cleavage site found in almost all human and a cat sequence from West Java.

DQ497651 A/chicken/Gunung Kidal/BBVW/2005 2005 H5N1
DQ497643 A/chicken/Magetan/BBVW/2005 2005 H5N1
DQ320933 A/chicken/Wajo/BBVM/2005 2005 H5N1
DQ497659 A/duck/Parepare/BBVM/2005 2005 H5N1
ISDN125873 A/Indonesia/5/05 2005 H5N1
DQ320930 A/chicken/Yogjakarta/BBVet-IX/2004 2004 H5N1
DQ497649 A/quail/Yogjakarta/BBVet-IX/2004 2004 H5N1

WHO Initiates New Website on H5N1 in Indonesia​

Recombinomics Commentary
May 29, 2006

WHO has a new website devoted to H5N1 bird flu in Indonesia. The new site has the Indonesian updates as well as maps of bird outbreaks, human outbreaks, and a combined map. The site also has locations of regional hospitals throughout Indonesia.

Site provides a great deal of useful information on Indonesian H5N1 and allowed for convenient access of complied information.

The number of cases has increased dramatically in the past few weeks, including updates on the large cluster in North Sumatra. Today's updates added six new confirmed cases, which have yet to be added to the maps, but the data at the site is useful for identifying cases in West Java (Bekaal, Bogor, Bandung, Indimayu, Depok, Semedang.

The new site is both useful and user friendly for a more detailed view of the H5N1 outbreaks in Indonesia.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05290605/H5N1_Indonesia_Website.html

bump

Common Source for Confirmed H5N1 Bird Flu Cluster in Bandung ​

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05300601/H5N1_Bandung_Common.html

Recombinomics Commentary
May 30, 2006

Two additional cases occurred in a 10-year-old girl and her 18-year-old brother from Bandung, West Java. Both children developed symptoms on 16 May, were hospitalized on 22 May, and died on 23 May. Both children had a history of close contact with sick and dying chickens at their home in the week before symptom onset. The identical onset dates strongly suggest that they acquired their infection following a shared exposure to poultry, and not from each other. Follow-up of contacts has not identified further cases of influenza-like illness.

The above description from the WHO update accurately indicates that the same disease onset date strongly suggests a common source for the infection of the siblings. However, most of the human cases in West Java have a novel HA cleavage site, RESRRKKR, yet that cleavage site has not been described in birds from West Java (see map). Therefore, sequence analysis of H5N1 from the siblings, as well as poultry in the area would be useful.

Recent local reports describe another suspect familial cluster in an adjacent village in Bandung and three earlier clusters in the area have been described. Each cluster had at least one member H5N1 confirmed by Hong Kong. There is also a geographical cluster in Bekasi, also in West Java.

The sequences from these earlier clusters shopuld be released immediately.

Pigeon Source for Confirmed H5N1 Bird Flu Case in Jakarta? ​

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05300602/H5N1_Jakarta_Pigeon.html

Recombinomics Commentary
May 30, 2006

An additional case occurred in a 39-year-old man from West Jakarta. He developed symptoms on 9 May, was hospitalized on 16 May, and died on 19 May. The investigation determined that the man cleaned pigeon faeces from blocked roof gutters at his home shortly before symptom onset. No further potential source of exposure was identified.

The above WHO update leaves source of H5N1 bird flu in human infections in the Jakarta area unclear. Most of the reported cases in Indonesia are from Jakarta area or nearby locations in West Java (see map). The sequence from all but one of the human isolates has a novel cleavage site, which has not been reported for bird isolates in the area. Although there have been a large number of poultry isolates from various regions in Indonesia, there are no public sequences from wild birds, such as pigeons.

More detailed surveillance of H5N1 in the area would be useful. Thus far the only non-human isolate from the area with the novel cleavage site is from a cat. H5N1 from poultry and wild birds in the area should be isolated and sequenced along with mammalian sources such as swine.

These and prior H5N1 sequences, including human sequences should be released immediately.

Confusion Over WHO Sequestered Indonesian H5N1 Sequences ​

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05300603/H5N1_Sequence_Confusion.html

Recombinomics Commentary
May 30, 2006

the WHO maps referenced above indicate that although outbreaks of animal disease have occurred widely throughout the archipelago, so far human cases has occurred predominantly in the central region and in
northern Sumatra. The northern Sumatra cluster is geographically
detached from the main body of human cases and conceivably might be
associated with an atypical virus. - Mod.CP

The above comments by ProMed on the geographically distinct location of the north Sumatra cluster may signal a new H5N1 bird flu strain. This analysis contradicts the WHO update, which indicate the sequence was very similar to the bird isolates in Indonesia. The comments highlight the need for the release of the sequences of the human isolates, and additional sequences from both wild and domestic bird sources. Moreover, the matching of the novel cleavage site in humans in the Jakarta / West Java area with a cat H5N1 sequence suggests more mammalian sources should be tested, including swine.

Descriptions of the human sequences suggest there are at least three different strains of H5N1 in Indonesia that are causing human disease. Although all three versions are clearly most closely related to H5N1 sequences in birds in Indonesia, the three sets of isolates are readily distinguishable.

The majority of the human cases are in the area in and around Jakarta in West Java. The sequences (HA and NA) of one human isolate have been made public. The human HA sequence is most closely related to a subset of the poultry isolates, but is readily distinguished by a novel glycosylation site and a novel cleavage site, RESRRKKR. The novel cleavage site is found in all but one of the human isolates and it is also found in a cat isolate. The cleavage site has not been reported in any public sequence other than the human sequence deposited in the Los Alamos flu database on August 1, 2005 and made available on March 25, 2006.

The one human sequence in the Jakarta area that is different is from the second confirmed case, and thought to be linked to fertilizer containing bird feces. Thus, only one human isolate in the Jakarta / West Java area has been linked to a bird source, even though the cases have been reported since July of 2005, and the number of cases has recently spiked higher.

The Sumatra cluster appears to have the common H5N1 cleavage site of RERRRKKR, but it amantadine resistant, while the isolates from the Jakarta area are amantadine sensitive. More information on the three distinct strains of H5N1 infecting humans in Indonesia requires analysis of the sequences sequestered in the WHO private database.

These sequences should be released immediately.

Since the board was down for most of today... let's just make this a 2-day thread...

WHO issues plan to limit birdflu outbreak in humans​

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L30280304.htm

By Stephanie Nebehay

GENEVA, May 30 (Reuters) - The World Health Organisation (WHO) issued a step-by-step plan on Tuesday, including the rapid mass use of the antiviral Tamiflu, for containing a birdflu outbreak if the virus starts to spread rapidly among humans.

The "rapid response and containment strategy" has a chance of quashing the deadly H5N1 virus only if people in the zone at risk receive massive doses of the drug within three weeks of a confirmed outbreak, it said.

"The success of a strategy for containing an emerging pandemic virus is strictly time dependent," the WHO said in its latest containment report, based on recommendations by 70 international experts who held closed-door talks in March.

"Mathematical models have indicated that a containment strategy, based on the mass administration of antiviral drugs, has a chance of success only when drugs are administered within 21 days following the timely detection of the first case representing improved human-to-human transmission of the virus."

Under the detailed timeline laid down, a country should notify WHO of a cluster of suspicious cases suggesting sustained human-to-human spread of the virus within 24 hours of detection.

A WHO-approved laboratory has another 24 hours to confirm that the H5N1 bird flu virus has changed, either through mutation or through reassortment with human influenza.

The strategy relies on WHO's global stockpile for rapid containment, three million treatment courses of Tamiflu, donated by Swiss drugmaker Roche. Quarantine, infection control measures and contact tracing must also be carried out.

Once the WHO officially asks Roche for Tamiflu doses to be sent, they should arrive at the international airport nearest the outbreak within 24 hours, the Geneva-based agency said.

The WHO said on Saturday that it had for the first time asked Roche to be prepared to ship Tamiflu to Sumatra, Indonesia, where a family of seven was infected, with possibly some limited human-to-human transmission.

In the end, the WHO did not ask for the drugs to be sent.

"If we needed to mount a containment effort, we needed to be sure that Roche would be ready," WHO spokeswoman Maria Cheng told a briefing on Tuesday.

ALERT PHASES

The WHO also said on Tuesday it was refining its guidelines for a global influenza pandemic alert to make them clearer.

Nervous financial markets were shaken last week by talk that the WHO was about to raise its level of alert from its current three on a six-point scale after the Sumatra cases.

There was concern that the spread of the H5N1 virus among the family members indicated that it was becoming better at infecting people.

But the WHO subsequently said tests showed that there had been no significant genetic changes and that the virus had not become more dangerous to humans.

The revised guidelines, expected to be issued in a few weeks, will try to use language that is "more acceptable (and) understandable," Cheng said.

Level three means some very limited human-to-human transmission of bird flu has occurred, while level four signals evidence of increased human-to-human transmission.

Phase five would signal evidence of "significant human to human transmission", while six would signal the onset of a pandemic, which the WHO has warned could take millions of lives.

Bird flu remains essentially an animal disease, but it has taken 127 lives among 224 cases in 10 countries since 2003.

The WHO considers Tamiflu the frontline drug against the H5N1 bird flu strain, but says more clinical studies are needed.

BIRD FLU EXPERTS MEET IN ROME​

31.5.2006. 08:42:32



Scientists from about 100 countries have begun a two-day conference in Rome to try to define the exact role of migratory birds in the spread of avian flu, one of several mysteries puzzling researchers nearly three years after the first outbreaks.

"There are still a lot of unknowns about this type of bird, about how the virus spreads. There's a feeling of powerlessness and ignorance which pushed us to call this international conference," said Gideon Bruckner, a leading bird flu expert with the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE).

About 300 experts on bird flu are meeting at the headquarters of the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) in Rome.

"The more time passes the more we realise that the epidemiology of the virus is complex. Many aspects are little known or even unknown, and we are currently at a crossroads," said Joseph Domenech, FAO's head of veterinary operations.

"The recent spread of the disease in Europe has shown that long distance transport of HPAI virus is a reality but many epidemioogical and virological facts remain to be better scientificially documented," said Dr Domenech.

"The question today is to know what exact role they can play as reservoirs and carriers of highly pathogenic avian influenza," he added.

Scientists are puzzled over why some species of wild acquatic birds are more efficient carriers of the disease than others.

The most efficient prevention of a human pandemic is still based on the control of the disease at source in domestic birds.

Bird flu, of which the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus is but one of its forms, "is continuing to evolve at high speed and is also blowing away all the established results," said US expert Robert G. Webster.

The only certain element "is that the aquatic migratory birds are natural reservoirs of all the flu viruses," he said.

But "there are also enormous differences in the prevalence according to the species," said David Stallknecht, a specialist of the American university of Georgia.

Some aquatic birds which contracted the virus developed antibodies, others appeared to be genetically protected against the disease, while still others die, according to Dutch virologist Ron Fouchier.

"We have to change the sampling methods," to better understand how each species reacts to the virus, he said. "The virus varies considerably depending on the bird harbouring it."

But even more basic methods will first have to be strengthened if research is to be effective, said Juan Lubroth, an animal health expert with FAO.

"It's essential to strengthen veterinary services in some developing countries," if scientists are to accumulate better data.

"For example, some official reports talk about dead ducks and geese but without any detail about the species or the sub-species to which they belong," he said.

http://www.birdflubreakingnews.com/...au/theworldnews/region.php?id=129481&region=3

Romania....

MEP: Not solving bird flu crisis risks delaying EU accession ​

http://www.daily-news.ro/article_detail.php?idarticle=26927

Harsher fines and preventive arrests are the authorities' answer to warnings from EU officials regarding a possible accession delay over the bird flu crisis.

The bird flu crisis is an "emergency" that risks prompting the postponement of Romania's European Union accession if it is not solved, according to the co-president of the EU-Romania Joint Parliamentary Committee, Guido Podesta.

The European lawmaker said the situation was very serious and needs to be solved as quickly as possible. Podesta expressed his confidence the crisis will be solved, given the fact that the government gave insurance the situation is under control. He also said that more control needs to be imposed on local level, because this is where the real problems caused by the bird flu appear.

Meanwhile, as the number of bird flu outbreaks reported across the country dropped to 114 yesterday morning, one less than on Monday, the government ordered that fines for chicken farms that do not respect bio-security measures be increased significantly.

The number of outbreaks dropped by one in authorities' statistics because tests did not indicate the presence of the bird flu virus in Ocnele Mari, Valcea County, a spokesman for the Agriculture Ministry, Adrian Tibu said yesterday after a meeting of the Animal Health Special Command Office.

In 112 outbreaks, authorities have finished culling all domestic fowl and disinfection procedures.
Also, the government decided to increase fines for companies that do not respect bio-security standards from 3,000 RON (857 euros) to 20,000 RON (over 5,700 euros), government spokeswoman Oana Marinescu said.

Meanwhile, sanitary-veterinary inspectors will continue checks at chicken farms in several counties. Until now, the Environment Guard has checked 249 farms and given fines over 46,500 RON (over 13,000 euros).

Prime Minister Calin Popescu Tariceanu also ordered the National Sanitary-Veterinary Authority and the government's control body to check Transportation Ministry acquisitions of disinfecting materials.

"The prime minister is concerned about the large amounts of money used for the acquisition of these materials and he also took into consideration the signals sent by the media about this issue," Marinescu said. "Even if we have bird flu, we cannot afford throwing away public money just because we have bird flu."

Meanwhile, prosecutors detained the owner of another chicken farm in Codlea, Brasov County, where the first bird flu cases were reported.

Ioan Stavri, the head of Avi Prod 2002, was detained on suspicion of spreading diseases in animals. Prosecutors are currently running three investigations regarding the bird flu spread in Brasov. Two other owners of chicken farms in Codlea, Vasile Dardala (owner of Drakom Silva) and Florin Macovei (manager of Pati Prod) are also detained and under investigation on similar charges, along with tax evasion.

Indonesian boy tests positive locally for bird flu​

2 hours, 24 minutes ago



A 15-year-old Indonesian boy has tested positive for the H5N1 bird flu, a senior health ministry official said on Wednesday, citing results of a local laboratory.

These results are not considered definitive and samples are on their way to a World Health Organisation-accredited laboratory in Hong Kong for confirmation.

"Usually, if local tests are positive it's also positive in Hong Kong," said Hariadi Wibisono, director of animal-borne disease control at the Health Ministry.

The boy, from Tasikmalaya town in west Java, was admitted to hospital on May 29 and died a day later.

Government officials who visited the boy's village found that he had contact with infected poultry near his home and his own chickens died two weeks ago. The boy's grandfather was a chicken farmer and 40 of his chickens died recently.

Although the virus primarily causes disease in birds, many countries around the world are on alert for it as they fear it may mutate into one that spreads easily among people and trigger a pandemic, killing millions.

Indonesia is of particular concern because of the steady rise in its number of human infections and deaths since its first known outbreak of H5N1 in chickens in late 2003. Forty-nine people have been infected and 36 of them have died.

Fears intensified earlier this month, when the virus killed as many as seven members of a single family in north Sumatra, and experts later said there could have been limited human-to-human transmission in this cluster case.

But they stressed that genetic analyses of the virus has not shown all of the traits that are known so far to allow it to spread easily among people.

Officials combating the disease will seek to educate citizens about the disease in a campaign in Medan on Thursday, said Bayu Krisnamurthi of the National Committee on Avian Influenza Control and Pandemic Influenza Preparedness.

"It's a combination of poverty, little education and tendency to compare flu to other diseases or misfortunes. Without enough understanding, people see this as minor," he said.

"We want to give more information, teach them about the disease, about possibly greater damage if there are no changes."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060531...Wmy8rIiANEA;_ylu=X3oDMTA3MXN1bHE0BHNlYwN0bWE-

New Confirmed H5N1 Bird Flu Fatality in Bandung Indonesia ​

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05310601/H5N1_Bandung_New.html

Recombinomics Commentary
May 31, 2006

A 15-year-old boy from Tasikmalaya town was rushed to Bandung's Hasan Sadikin hospital late Monday after showing symptoms of avian influenza commonly known as bird flu.

The boy, a resident of Cangkuang Karangninggal hamlet in Tasikmalaya, some 100 kilometers east of Bandung, arrived at the hospital with serious breathing problems and a high fever.

Doctors said the boy was likely infected with bird flu, because he had history of direct contact with dead chickens.

The suspect's father said the second year junior high school student fell ill last Wednesday, a week after six of their chickens died suddenly.

"Hundreds of chickens have died since May, with bluish marks on their bodies and fluid coming out of their beaks," the suspect's father said at the hospital Tuesday.

The above description of another confirmed H5N1 bird flu case in the West Java region near Bandung is cause for concern. Wire service reports have indicated that local tests have confirmed that the patient is H5N1 positive. Earlier local; media reports described the clinic and local hospital admissions prior to transfer to Hazan Sadikin. The teenage student arrived late Monday and died on Tuesday.

The announcement that he tested positive for H5N1 suggests that samples were not collected until he was transferred on Monday. He developed symptoms last Wednesday and was hospitalized in Tarikmalaya after a visit to a local clinic. When his condition deteriorated further, he was transferred to Bandung. This series of transfers prior to testing is similar in Jakarta. Thus, only the most ill are tested which might contribute to the high fatality rate.

The recent spike in cases in West Java and Jakarta are cause for concern. A pair of siblings are the most recent cases confirmed in Hong Kong. However, there were two additional admissions who are still being tested. Thus, there have been five patients near Bandung admitted in the past week and the three that were lab confirmed have died.

Although the most recent case is linked to dying poultry with bird flu symptoms, testing and sequencing of the birds would be useful. Human cases in West Java (see map) have been infected by H5N1 with a novel cleavage site, which has not been reported for the H5N1 isolated from poultry, including poultry in West Java.

The failure to link the human H5N1 with poultry H5N1 is cause for concern. Both the lab in Hong Kong and the CDC have the earlier sequences with the novel cleavage site. These sequences should be released immediately.

Mystery, Iraqi Sheikh Cloud Hungary's Bird-Flu Vaccine Claims​

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=acgHvlgYX3Wk



May 31 (Bloomberg) -- Hungary says it has invented an effective human vaccine against bird flu. The trouble is, the country can't seem to prove it.

Seven months after proclaiming the product effective against a potential pandemic virus, the Hungarian government and Omninvest Kft., the private company that developed the vaccine, haven't sold a vial. They haven't released any scientific evidence backing their claim. Nor have they sought regulatory approval from the European Union that would encourage its use by potential buyers.

Omninvest, based outside Budapest, increased skepticism about the vaccine in April when it turned to an Iraqi investor based in Budapest to help market the product. The man, who identifies himself as the leader of Iraq's Sunni Muslims, says he has no pharmaceuticals sales experience, and was once investigated by Hungarian police over the disappearance of a shipment of medical aid to Iraq.

``I am really very suspicious until I see a big pharmaceutical company with clear marketing potential get behind this,'' Gabor Blasko, a member of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences in Budapest, said in a telephone interview. Scientists at Hungary's National Epidemiology Center, which developed the vaccine, may have been too hasty when they pronounced the vaccine ready for the international market late last year, he said.

The H5N1 avian influenza virus has killed 127 of the 224 people who have gotten the illness since 2003, with most cases resulting from exposure to infected animals, the World Health Organization says.

Winner of Vaccine Race

Several drugmakers, including Paris-based Sanofi-Aventis SA and London-based GlaxoSmithKline Plc, are racing to develop a vaccine in case the virus begins spreading from human to human.

Omninvest and Hungary said in October they had beaten the bigger rivals. Neither will release research data for scientific peer review. Their claim also is clouded by questions over the Iraqi sheikh's business credentials and Sumpter Pharmaceuticals Ltd., Omninvest's Cyprus-based parent company, whose owners decline to identify themselves.

Hungary's Prime Minister, Ferenc Gyurcsany, told Parliament Oct. 17 that Hungary would profit from sales of the vaccine, which showed promise against the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu in human testing. The country's National Epidemiology Center said it began testing the vaccine on 146 volunteers in Budapest in September.

Potential customers such as Romania say they won't order the vaccine or the technology to produce it without EU approval.

A Siberian Buyer

Glaxo, Europe's biggest drugmaker, inspected Omninvest's production facility in the town of Pilisborosjeno, then decided to continue developing its own bird-flu vaccine, Gyorgy Leitner, head of the company's Hungarian unit, said in an interview.

Russia's Chelyabinsk region in Siberia, which had a bird-flu outbreak in poultry last August, is considering buying Hungary's technology to produce the vaccine itself, said Victor Shepelev, the regional minister for health care in a May 30 interview in Budapest. First, the vaccine will have to be approved by Russian authorities, a process that could take up to a year, Shepelev said.

``As a business case, this has been a failure rather than a success,'' Peter Pazitny, a partner at the Bratislava, Slovakia- based Health Policy Institute, which advises eastern European governments on health policy, said in a telephone interview.

Hungarian Surgeon General Laszlo Bujdoso said he disagrees with suggestions that the vaccine hasn't sold because it doesn't work.

Protected Data

``We'll be eagerly awaiting experts in Hungary, so they can come to the scene and we can acquaint them with the production and the technological details,'' he said in a March 27 e-mail.

Asked to produce a copy of the certificate the government said it issued to Omninvest March 14 authorizing the vaccine's sale, Bujdoso said, ``The document is not public, because it contains protected data.''

Sanofi announced May 11 that its bird-flu vaccine was able to stimulate an immune response in 42 days after inoculation in a test group of 300 volunteers, according to a company-sponsored study in the Lancet medical journal. World governments are expected to spend millions of dollars stockpiling an effective vaccine to protect people should a pandemic be declared.

Former State Secretary for Health Erzsebet Pusztai of the opposition Hungarian Democratic Forum said she'll push for an inquiry into how and why Hungary's Socialist-led government subsidized Omninvest's vaccine with 2 billion forint ($9.8 million) of taxpayer money.

Owners in Cyprus

``If it were just a private company, there'd be nothing to say,'' Pusztai said in a telephone interview. ``But Omninvest is getting state money. Why is this?''

She also questioned who will profit from sales of the treatment. Omninvest is 98-percent owned by Cyprus-registered Sumpter Pharmaceuticals, an investment company managed by AJK Bureau of Consultants Ltd., based in Larnaca, Cyprus.

AJK specializes in helping investors create businesses in countries such as Cyprus, the Bahamas, and the Isle of Man, according to the company's Web site. It also manages at least a dozen companies based in Moscow, according to Russian online business directory Polpred.com.

Andreas Karapatakis, AJK's chairman and Sumpter's director, refused to identify Sumpter's owners.

``We don't have to disclose this information to anyone unless they are investigating a crime,'' Karapatakis said in a telephone interview May 25.

Iraqi Sheikh

Sheikh Semir Sabih Khelil al-Dulaimi, a 43-year-old Iraqi- Hungarian investor, announced April 27 he had purchased the rights to sell the vaccine to governments and companies in 29 countries. Hungary accepted Dulaimi's offer to join the vaccine business because it needs help selling the vaccine to foreign governments, Economy Minister Janos Koka said in a brief interview May 9.

``We never expected to go abroad on our own,'' he said ``We had to get a multinational company.''

Hungarian-born Dulaimi said he paid ``tens of millions'' of dollars in February to Omninvest for the rights to the technology to produce its bird-flu vaccine. He declined to give exact financial details.

His Web site lists businesses in Iraq ranging from drilling to civil engineering and the Al-Dulaimi Airlines.

Dulaimi said he didn't announce the contracts until after the April 23 elections in order to keep Hungary's opposition party from finding out about the deal. Hungary's ruling Socialist government will get 14 percent of the revenue from the vaccine.

Payment Disputed

Andras Batiz, Hungary's government spokesman in Budapest, said in an e-mailed statement the government hadn't received any money from Dulaimi. The Iraqi has non-exclusive permission to help sell the technology, he said.

``It's not my business to decide if he's trustworthy or not,'' Batiz said. He referred further questions to Omninvest, whose spokesman, Zsolt Nemeth, said he wasn't able to comment.

Dulaimi says he has the right to sell the vaccine in Australia, Japan, the U.K., Germany, Iraq and two dozen other countries, from which he will get 50 percent of the proceeds, he said.

Dulaimi was investigated by Hungarian police in 2003 in connection with the disappearance of a 60 million-forint consignment of drugs bound for war-torn Iraq, he said. No charges were brought against him.

``A lot of people don't like us,'' Dulaimi said. ``But that's the way it is.''

Lajos Molnar, a physician who will become the nation's health minister June 12, said in an interview May 30 that he will ``look into'' the vaccine claim and Dulaimi's involvement after he takes office.

http://www.fox21.com/global/story.asp?s=4948259&ClientType=Printable


300 scientists to gather in Rome May 30-31 for conference on bird flu

ROME Some 300 scientists and experts will gather in Rome next week for a conference to examine the role of wild birds in spreading the deadly strain of bird flu.
The U-N Food and Agriculture Organization, based in Rome, and the Paris-based World Organization for Animal Health say the experts will come from some 100 countries.

The key issue at the May 30th and 31st conference will be the role of wild birds, as opposed to domestic poultry, in spreading the virus.

According to the F-A-O's chief veterinary officer, the main problem is that it is not known for sure whether wild birds can act as long-term reservoirs of highly pathogenic forms of bird flu, such as the H-five-n-one.

Australia:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200605/s1651202.htm


Indonesia's approach to bird flu concerns Abbott

The Federal Health Minister Tony Abbott says he is concerned about Indonesia's efforts to manage and control the spread of bird flu.

There have been several recent bird flu deaths in Indonesia.

After releasing a revised plan to handle an influenza pandemic, Mr Abbott revealed his concern about Indonesia's approach to bird flu.

"There is still not effective surveillance of poultry stocks, there could be improvements in reporting," Mr Abbott said.

But Australia's chief health officer John Horvath is playing down the concern.

He says if there was a pandemic outbreak, the nation's proximity to Indonesia would not make much difference.

"Where it breaks out it would be a worldwide event within 24 hours," he said.

Outbreak simulation

A major exercise involving the simulation of an influenza pandemic will be held later this year.

Federal and state governments will take part in the four-day trial in Brisbane in October.

It will simulate the arrival of an international passenger infected with pandemic influenza.

Mr Abbott says the plan also considers how to handle overseas travellers.

"We would be requiring the captains of all incoming planes to make positive declarations as to the status of their passengers," he said.

"Any plane that arrived with infected passengers would be placed in quarantine, what we wouldn't be doing though is ordering the shutdown of all international transport."
Anti-virals

The Federal Government has changed its plans for allocating anti-viral drugs in the event of an influenza pandemic.

The Government had previously planned to give stockpiled medicines to a wide range of essential service workers if there was an outbreak of influenza, such as a bird flu pandemic.

But a revised strategy released today proposes only giving the drugs to those infected, and health workers treating them.

Mr Abbott says the previous aim is not feasible.

"We came to the conclusion in consultation with the states that the attempt to keep prophylaxis going for the up to 1 million people who would normally be deemed essential was simply not going to work, there would never be enough anti-virals to do so," he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aDtyy1AjVJ0w


Bird Flu Trail Leads Medical Detectives Back to Farms (Update2)

May 30 (Bloomberg) -- The fight to stop the spread of deadly bird flu is leading back to farms, health experts say.

Officials looking to contain the avian influenza virus that may spark a human pandemic are downplaying the importance of migrating wild birds as the source of infections among domestic poultry. Farms and poultry traders are the more likely cause of the spread of the flu, which has killed 51 people so far this year, more than all of 2005.

The focus on wild birds has led to misguided attempts to control the virus, Richard Thomas, a spokesman for BirdLife International, a Cambridge, U.K.-based conservation society, said in an interview. New research suggests the wild animals may be getting the virus from farm-based chickens and ducks.

``The disease is spreading more through commercial husbandry and the humans that are moving poultry around,'' said Juan Lubroth, head of infectious diseases at the animal-health service of the Rome-based United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. ``This is not to say that there's no risk from wild birds, but it is poultry and trade that is primarily responsible.''

Lubroth and scientists from more than 100 countries will meet today in Rome to try to shift the focus of prevention back to the animals that incubate the disease. The H5N1 virus has killed almost two of every three people infected this year, leading governments around the world to buy antivirals, including Roche Holding AG's Tamiflu, and to sponsor vaccine development. Focusing on controlling the disease in animal populations would be better, the FAO says.

Human Medicine

``We'd be able to do a lot more for human medicine and in a more cost-effective manner than stockpiling medicines or vaccines,'' Lubroth said. ``This isn't to say that this stockpiling isn't important, but there should be enough resources to go around and we haven't seen anything coming in to the FAO or animal health ministries or veterinary services.''

The FAO estimates the amount of money it needs to try to contain the disease has more than doubled to $308 million from just a few months ago because resources haven't been targeted to veterinary services. The organization has only received $71 million in funding as of May 19.

The U.S. government has earmarked $7.1 billion for speeding production of flu vaccines, stockpiling medicines, strengthening surveillance and helping states prepare for a pandemic.

Health officials are worried the lethal H5N1 virus may change into a form easily spread among people, touching off a pandemic similar to the one that began in 1918 in which as many as 50 million people died.

200 Million Fowl

Almost all of the 224 known human H5N1 cases have been linked to close contact with sick or dead birds, according to the World Health Organization in Geneva. Thorough cooking of meat and eggs kills the virus.

About 200 million fowl have been culled or have died of the disease since late 2003, costing countries as much as $15 billion, according to the FAO.

Generally, the spread of the disease hasn't taken the course that would be expected if it followed the migratory patterns. Lubroth cited birds that migrated through the Mediterranean and didn't introduce the virus to the region. It's not clear whether this is because the birds didn't carry the virus, or because people took preventive measures, he said.

In Nigeria, which is on so-called migratory flyways, evidence has emerged that the virus was introduced there in February through trade in infected chicks, the FAO said.

Wild Birds

``I've been stumped by this virus for the last two years,'' Lubroth said. ``Certain things we thought would happen didn't, and then things we didn't think would happen did.''

It's possible, Lubroth said, that wild birds are being infected by poultry. Several countries may be wasting resources targeting the wild fowl, said Thomas of BirdLife International.

``The country we're most worried about is Russia,'' Thomas said. ``There have been extensive calls by politicians for teams to go out and scare off or shoot wild birds, particularly in the Novosibirsk area. We don't know if this is really being carried out or if it's just hot air.''

The FAO doesn't recommend targeting wild birds, Lubroth said. The organization does encourage better hygiene and an all-in, all-out policy, requiring that all chickens at a certain level of development are moved out of the pens before new chicks are introduced.

Poultry Production

Organizations including the FAO have encouraged poultry production as a means of increasing protein consumption and improving the standards of living among poor families in regions of Asia and Africa.

The number of chickens in Indonesia, where the WHO is investigating the largest known cluster of human infections, had risen to an estimated 271 million in 1997 from 61.8 million in 1969, according to the FAO. Almost half the 51 avian flu fatalities reported this year have occurred in the Southeast Asian country.

``We need a lot more attention paid to what is not happening in the animal sector,'' Dick Thompson, leader of the WHO's pandemic and outbreak communications team, said by phone today from the Indonesian capital, Jakarta. ``Indonesia will continue to see cases as long as the disease is not adequately addressed in animals.''

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/05/30/news/flu.php



Experts say wild birds aren't only cause of flu
The Associated Press

WEDNESDAY, MAY 31, 2006
ROME Wild birds carry only part of the blame for spreading the deadly strain of bird flu and experts said Tuesday that they should not be killed but rather studied to understand how the virus spreads.

Scientists at an international conference on bird flu in Rome urged countries to refrain from mass killings of birds, saying that only further research can reveal whether the highly infectious H5N1 bird flu strain will become endemic in wild birds, causing periodic outbreaks across the globe for years to come.

"The message is: Don't blame only the wild birds," Joseph Domenech, director of the Animal Health Service at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, said at a two-day conference at the agency here.

"We don't know if wild birds can become long-term reservoirs of the virus," he said. "We are not supporting actions on wild birds, such as killings. If wild birds have a role, the only answer is to monitor them."

The conference gathered more than 300 scientists and animal experts from 100 countries to discuss the role of wild birds and other questions in hopes of finding ways to control the spread of the disease and to prepare in case it mutates into a virus that could threaten a human pandemic.

The conference was organized by the food and agriculture agency and the World Organization for Animal Health, in Paris.

Robert Webster, a bird flu expert at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee, pointed to key questions scientists will have to answer in coming years: "Is the virus established in migratory birds? Will it go to the breeding grounds and perpetuate itself?"

Other outbreaks of the H5 subtype have proved highly infectious for poultry but have died down when passed back into the wild bird population, Webster said.

If the virus "breaks that rule," he said, "we are in very big trouble."

Evidence on the role of wild birds is not always conclusive in the areas where H5N1 has appeared. Migratory birds brought the disease into Russia and Eastern Europe, but in the case of recent outbreaks in Africa there is little evidence pointing to wild birds.

The virus has ravaged poultry flocks in Asia, Europe and Africa since 2003 and experts have pointed to the poultry trade as the area where the disease is easiest to manage.

"Wild birds can introduce the virus to an area, but disease spread is usually due to human actions," such as poor hygiene at poultry farms and bad surveillance of poultry trade, said Juan Lubroth, a senior veterinarian at the food and agriculture agency.

"We don't need prime ministers to come out and say: 'We'll cut off the tops of trees or drain the wetlands.'"

Lubroth said experts were still puzzling over which wild bird species were more susceptible to the virus, and how long they could keep flying and spreading the virus once they were infected. "Dead birds don't fly," he said.

Webster, the U.S. expert, said that if indeed the virus became endemic in wild birds, understanding which species are affected would serve as an early warning system for future outbreaks, since their migratory routes are well known.

The H5N1 virus has killed at least 127 people worldwide, with most victims infected through direct contact with sick birds. Experts say they fear, however, that the virus could mutate into a form that passes easily between humans, possibly starting a global pandemic. Understanding how the virus strain spreads is a key factor in fighting the disease.


ROME Wild birds carry only part of the blame for spreading the deadly strain of bird flu and experts said Tuesday that they should not be killed but rather studied to understand how the virus spreads.

Scientists at an international conference on bird flu in Rome urged countries to refrain from mass killings of birds, saying that only further research can reveal whether the highly infectious H5N1 bird flu strain will become endemic in wild birds, causing periodic outbreaks across the globe for years to come.

"The message is: Don't blame only the wild birds," Joseph Domenech, director of the Animal Health Service at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, said at a two-day conference at the agency here.

"We don't know if wild birds can become long-term reservoirs of the virus," he said. "We are not supporting actions on wild birds, such as killings. If wild birds have a role, the only answer is to monitor them."

The conference gathered more than 300 scientists and animal experts from 100 countries to discuss the role of wild birds and other questions in hopes of finding ways to control the spread of the disease and to prepare in case it mutates into a virus that could threaten a human pandemic.

The conference was organized by the food and agriculture agency and the World Organization for Animal Health, in Paris.

Robert Webster, a bird flu expert at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee, pointed to key questions scientists will have to answer in coming years: "Is the virus established in migratory birds? Will it go to the breeding grounds and perpetuate itself?"

Other outbreaks of the H5 subtype have proved highly infectious for poultry but have died down when passed back into the wild bird population, Webster said.

If the virus "breaks that rule," he said, "we are in very big trouble."

Evidence on the role of wild birds is not always conclusive in the areas where H5N1 has appeared. Migratory birds brought the disease into Russia and Eastern Europe, but in the case of recent outbreaks in Africa there is little evidence pointing to wild birds.

The virus has ravaged poultry flocks in Asia, Europe and Africa since 2003 and experts have pointed to the poultry trade as the area where the disease is easiest to manage.

"Wild birds can introduce the virus to an area, but disease spread is usually due to human actions," such as poor hygiene at poultry farms and bad surveillance of poultry trade, said Juan Lubroth, a senior veterinarian at the food and agriculture agency.

"We don't need prime ministers to come out and say: 'We'll cut off the tops of trees or drain the wetlands.'"

Lubroth said experts were still puzzling over which wild bird species were more susceptible to the virus, and how long they could keep flying and spreading the virus once they were infected. "Dead birds don't fly," he said.

Webster, the U.S. expert, said that if indeed the virus became endemic in wild birds, understanding which species are affected would serve as an early warning system for future outbreaks, since their migratory routes are well known.

The H5N1 virus has killed at least 127 people worldwide, with most victims infected through direct contact with sick birds. Experts say they fear, however, that the virus could mutate into a form that passes easily between humans, possibly starting a global pandemic. Understanding how the virus strain spreads is a key factor in fighting the disease.

FROM WHO WEBSITE:

I think it is interesting that they only talk about the one cluster in North Sumatra.....there are quite a few smaller clusters that have been taking place as well that they don't even mention......

their message is ----- all is well, don't worry !

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_05_31/en/


Avian influenza – situation in Indonesia – update 16

31 May 2006

Situation update

Indonesian health authorities and WHO have further strengthened their response to the family cluster of cases in Kubu Simbelang village, Karo District, North Sumatra. As of today, 54 surviving family members and other close contacts of cases have been identified and placed under voluntary home quarantine. All of these people, with the exception of pregnant women and infants, are receiving the antiviral drug, oseltamivir, for prophylactic purposes. Public health teams visit these people daily, checking for symptoms.

In addition, active house-to-house surveillance for influenza-like illness is being conducted throughout the village, which has around 400 households. A command post for fever surveillance has been functioning in the village since last week.

As of today, no new cases suggestive of H5N1 infection have been detected since 22 May. This finding is important as it indicates that the virus has not spread beyond the members of this single extended family. No hospital staff involved in the care of patients, in some instances without adequate personal protective equipment, have developed the disease. The last person in the cluster, who developed symptoms on 15 May and died on 22 May, refused hospitalization. He moved between two villages while ill, accompanied by his wife. The wife is under surveillance and has not developed symptoms.

Despite multiple opportunities for the virus to spread to other family members, health care workers or into the general community, it has not, on present evidence, done so.

Current level of pandemic alert

Based on an assessment of present evidence, WHO has concluded that the current level of pandemic alert is appropriate and does not need to change. The level of pandemic alert remains at phase 3. This phase pertains to a situation in which occasional human infections with a novel influenza virus are occurring, but there is no evidence that the virus is spreading in an efficient and sustained manner from one person to another.

WHO has recommended continued close monitoring of the situation in Kubu Simbelang for the two weeks following 22 May, the date when the last known case in the cluster died. As a precautionary measure, Indonesian authorities have decided to extend this recommended period to three weeks.

Preliminary results of the investigation

This information differs in some details from information released in previous updates, but is derived from extensive investigations by senior national and international epidemiologists, from WHO and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, who have developed a clearer picture of the situation.

The cluster involves an initial case and seven subsequent laboratory-confirmed cases. All cases are members of an extended family: sisters and brothers and their children. Family members resided in four households. Three households were next-door neighbours in the village of Kubu Simbelang, Karo District, North Sumatra. The fourth household was located about 10 kilometres away in the nearby village of Kabanjahe.

The initial case in the cluster was a 37-year-old woman who sold fruits and chillies at a market in the village of Tigapanah. Her stand was located about 15 metres away from a stand where live chickens were sold. The investigation uncovered no reports of poultry die-offs in the market. However, the woman kept a small number of backyard chickens, allowed into the house at night. Three of her chickens reportedly died before she became ill. She is also known to have used chicken faeces from these household chickens as fertilizer in her garden.

A parallel agricultural investigation has not, to date, detected H5N1 virus in PCR tests of approximately 80 samples from poultry, other livestock and domestic pets, and chicken fertilizer taken from the vicinity.

The initial case developed symptoms on 24 April, was hospitalized on 2 May, and died on 4 May. No samples were collected for testing prior to her burial, but she is considered part of the cluster as her clinical course was compatible with H5N1 infection.

The initial case had one sister and three brothers. The sister and two of the brothers subsequently developed infection. The remaining cases occurred among children in these families.

The confirmed cases include five males and two females with an average age of 19 years (range from 1 to 32 years). Six out of the seven confirmed cases developed symptoms between 3 May and 5 May. These cases include two sons of the initial case, her brother from Kabanjahe, her sister, the sister’s baby, and the son of a second brother living in an adjacent house. This second brother, the last case in the cluster, developed symptoms on 15 May. Six out of the seven cases were fatal.

Exposures

On the night of 29 April, nine family members spent the night in a small room with the initial case at a time when she was severely ill, prostrate, and coughing heavily. These family members included the initial case and her three sons; the brother from Kabanjahe village, his wife, and their two children; the 21-year-old daughter of another brother (who did not become infected); and another young male visitor. Following this event, three family members – the woman’s two sons and the visiting brother from Kabanjahe – developed symptoms from 5 to 6 days later.

The woman’s sister, who lived in an adjacent house, developed symptoms at the same time, as did her 18-month-old daughter. Prior to symptom onset, this sister, accompanied by her daughter, provided close personal care of the initial case.

The last case in the cluster provided close care for his son throughout his hospital stay, from 9–13 May. The son was a frequent visitor in the home of the initial case and was present there on 29 April.

EU pressed over bird flu drug stockpile ​

May 31 2006 at 02:13PM

Brussels - The European Commission called on EU governments on Wednesday to decide this week whether to build a joint stockpile of anti-viral drugs to prepare for a feared flu pandemic later this year.

The European Union's executive arm said EU ministers should consider such concerted action - to add to national stockpiles already being built - at talks starting on Friday.

"The European Commission considers that the time is now right for ministers to take a political decision either way whether or not to create a European strategic stockpile," said commission spokesman Philip Tod.

"That would be in addition, to complement the national stocks the member states are in the course of establishing at the moment," added Tod, spokesman for EU health and consumer affairs commissioner Markos Kyprianou.

Since the end of 2003, the lethal H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus has infected more than 200 people around the world, killing at least 120, according to the WHO.

Experts fear it will mutate and become easily transmissible from human to human, causing a devastating pandemic.

On Friday, EU health and consumer affairs ministers will meet in Luxembourg for two days of talks, during which the anti-viral stockpiling issue will be a key agenda item.

The stockpile debate came as EU veterinary officials published figures charting the spread of the disease over the last 10 months.

According to an EU laboratory based outside London, since February 2006 over 700 wild birds across 13 EU states have been infected with the H5N1 strain of the virus.

The worst hit is Germany with 326 cases, ranging down to one case in Britain. Chronologically, the peak was reached in March with 362 cases confirmed.

"We cannot let down our guard when it comes to avian influenza, as it is likely to remain a threat for Europe and the rest of the world for many months to come," said Kyprianou.

The EU states with confirmed cases of H5N1 are: Greece, Italy, Slovenia, Hungary, Austria, Germany, France, Slovakia, Sweden, Poland, Denmark, Czech Republic and the United Kingdom. - Sapa-AFP

http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=31&art_id=qw1149076440864B216

The article below is about the 15 year old boy who has been hospitalized in Bandung. BUT.....

AT THE VERY END OF THIS ARTICLE IT TALKS ABOUT A NEIGHBOR( FROM THE SIBLINGS WHO DIED LAST WEEK) WHO HAS FLU-LIKE SYMPTOMS......possibly not a 'family cluster' that WHO feels 'so comforatble' talking about......

http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailnational.asp?fileid=20060531.G03&irec=4

"Two siblings from Bandung regency died last week and lab tests confirmed they had bird flu. Their neighbor, a 24-year-old man, who was admitted to the hospital Saturday is currently receiving treatment for bird flu-like symptoms."

New Freedom said:

The article below is about the 15 year old boy who has been hospitalized in Bandung. BUT.....

AT THE VERY END OF THIS ARTICLE IT TALKS ABOUT A NEIGHBOR( FROM THE SIBLINGS WHO DIED LAST WEEK) WHO HAS FLU-LIKE SYMPTOMS......possibly not a 'family cluster' that WHO feels 'so comforatble' talking about......

http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailnational.asp?fileid=20060531.G03&irec=4

"Two siblings from Bandung regency died last week and lab tests confirmed they had bird flu. Their neighbor, a 24-year-old man, who was admitted to the hospital Saturday is currently receiving treatment for bird flu-like symptoms."

Click to expand...

It seems that the latest PTB version of "nothing to worry about folks, just move on," is that H5N1 is only in (genetic) family clusters...

Great catch NF; it appears neighbors are catching H5N1 from neighbors... that blows the (genetic) family clusters theory. Being at the bottom of that article, clearly says that's something they did not want readers to notice.

Now combine that with WHO's reassurance that the most recent cases of human H5N1 are scattered and not family clusters... Hmmm we may be heading closer to TSHTF mode!

Avian flu H5N1cases top 740 ​

31/05/2006 14:56:00


Over 740 wild birds across 13 member states have tested positive for the H5N1 strain of avian flu since early February, according to official figures just published by the EU Commission.

However, a decline in the incidence of the disease has also been noted over the past weeks, suggesting the worst is over – for now.

During the February-May period some 60,000 wild birds were tested in the EU, in addition to the 39,000 tested between July 2005 and January 2006.

“Extensive surveillance has been one of the key tools used by the EU to fend off the virus over the past months,” EU food safety commissioner Markos Kyprianou told an international conference on avian flu in Rome on Wednesday (30 May).

“It is a fundamental component in minimising the introduction and spread of this disease which poses a serious threat to animal and public health.

“But we cannot let down our guard when it comes to avian influenza, as it is likely to remain a threat for Europe and the rest of the world for many months to come,” he added.

The commissioner noted that there had been only four outbreaks of H5N1 in commercial poultry flocks in the EU, and all of these were swiftly eradicated. No human case of the H5N1 virus has occurred in the EU.

The data reveals considerable regional variation in the number of cases in wild birds, ranging from 326 in Germany to 1 in the UK.

Infection rates peaked in March with 362 cases. Since then, the number of cases has declined to 162 in April and 17 in May.

The most commonly affected wild birds have been swans, representing 63% of the total, followed by ducks (16%), geese (4%), birds of prey (4%) and others (13%).

Almost €2.9m (£2m) has been made available by the commission to co-finance member states’ surveillance programmes for the period July 2005-December 2006.

The commission is also preparing to co-finance national aid packages to compensate poultry farmers for income losses arising from the crisis. So far 13 member states have applied for this assistance. The UK is not among them.


by Philip Clarke (About this Author)

http://www.fwi.co.uk/Articles/2006/05/31/95029/Avian+flu+H5N1cases+top+740+.html

Countries under-report bird flu​

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/5034276.stm

By Matt McGrath
Science reporter, BBC News, Rome

Chickens (AP)
Under-reporting may be due to inadequate compensation funds
China, Indonesia and Africa are under-reporting incidences of bird flu, according to the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE).

A lack of adequate compensation schemes for farmers with infected poultry is the major factor, said the OIE avian influenza coordinator.

She is urging developed countries to provide the funding for such schemes.

The call came at the end of a two-day international conference to discuss the spread of avian flu.

Speaking at a news conference, Dr Christianne Bruschke said that under-reporting is happening for a variety of reasons in different parts of the world.

Endemic disease

In Africa there are problems of time, distance and education.

"Farmers will probably not report sick animals. We also think that people in Africa may not recognise the signs of the disease.

"Their veterinary services are very weak and many countries do not have laboratory facilities - we have all the ingredients there that could lead to under-reporting."

There are also major problems with Indonesia, where human deaths from bird flu are a reflection of serious problems with animals.

The disease now appears to be permanently infecting poultry in the country, said Dr Bruschke, and this makes accurate reporting of cases all the more difficult.

"I think it could be the case because in certain regions the virus is getting more or less endemic, so in regions like Java, they might not report every single outbreak anymore."

Funding calls

Dr Bruschke stressed that almost all countries are willing to report and acknowledge how serious a crisis this is.

"China is openly communicating with us and cooperating - but it is a very big country.

"We sometimes see the outbreaks in wild animals - they will not always detect them. There is also not a very good compensation scheme in place so we feel there might be under-reporting. "

The OIE is encouraging developed countries to provide funding for compensation schemes. There have been discussions at recent meetings of donor countries in Geneva and Beijing but no concrete proposals as yet.

More than 300 scientists from 100 countries were meeting in Rome to discuss the impact of wild birds on the spread of avian influenza.

Bird flu outbreaks may be hidden​

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19324098-2702,00.html

Natasha Bita, Rome
June 01, 2006
INDONESIA and China could be downplaying their outbreaks of bird flu, the UN warned lastnight.

The UN's World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and Food and Agriculture Organisation said some countries were under-reporting cases of the deadly bird flu H5N1 amid growing concern of a pandemic.

Outbreaks in China, Indonesia and African countries could be worse than their governments were reporting.

"We know that some countries might be under-reporting ... most do not do it deliberately," the co-ordinator of the OIE's bird flu taskforce, Christianne Bruschke, said in Rome last night.

"We are concerned about China and Indonesia because the virus seems to be so widespread that we could not get all the information. It is difficult to know about each individual outbreak in a back yard."

The World Health Organisation has sent a team to Indonesia to investigate the cause of the world's largest outbreak of bird flu, which killed six members of the same family in North Sumatra over the past month.

Indonesia has reported 48 human infections with the disease since 2003, including 36 deaths. Of those, 31 cases and 25 deaths were reported this year.

China has reported 18 human cases - with 12 deaths - including 10 cases and seven deaths so far this year. Vietnam has reported 93 human infections, with 42 deaths. The disease has infected 224 people in 10 countries - killing 127 - since the H5N1 strain was detected in poultry in 2003.

Most victims appeared to have touched sick or dead poultry, although WHO is investigating whether the virus spread directly between members of the Indonesian family who died recently. Another Indonesian man was infected after clearing pigeon droppings from his roof gutters.

Australia has not reported any flu outbreaks so far.

Juan Lubroth, head of the FAO's emergency program for transboundary animal disease, said it was not inevitable the disease would cross to Australia from Indonesia.

Australia was one of the few countries well-prepared for an outbreak, he said.

"The Australian Government has quite a bit of depth and experience in handling some of these transboundary diseases and is quite well prepared in detection and quarantine to impede the diseases getting in," Dr Lubroth said.

He said the wild ducks and geese suspected of spreading the disease did not migrate to Australia and said migratory shorebirds were considered low-risk.

FAO chief veterinary officer Joseph Domenech said under-reporting of avian flu was "not most of the time deliberate". In parts of Africa, he said, it could take a month or two just to send a sample from an infected bird to a laboratory for testing.

The WHO warned yesterday that it had only a three-week window to stamp out any local outbreaks of bird flu in humans through mass vaccinations and quarantine.

JPD said:

Countries under-report bird flu​

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/5034276.stm

By Matt McGrath
Science reporter, BBC News, Rome

Chickens (AP)
Under-reporting may be due to inadequate compensation funds
China, Indonesia and Africa are under-reporting incidences of bird flu, according to the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE).

A lack of adequate compensation schemes for farmers with infected poultry is the major factor, said the OIE avian influenza coordinator.

She is urging developed countries to provide the funding for such schemes.

Click to expand...

I can understand the poor farmers not wanting to loose their chickens... but this sounds like blackmail.

I'm certain we'll be hearing more of this theme through the summer.

Bird flu threat to remain for years: experts​

http://www.dailyindia.com/show/30443.php/Bird_flu_threat_to_remain_for_years:_experts

By DPA

Rome, May 31 (DPA) UN experts said Wednesday they still have 'a long way to go' before fully understanding how bird flu spreads, but warned that the virus will remain a concern 'for years to come'.




Speaking on the sidelines of an international conference here, officials from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) said wild bird migrations and the illegal trade in infected animals play a key factor in spreading the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus.

'The conference identified the gaps in our knowledge and provided us with better information on the situation,' said Joseph Domenech, FAO's chief veterinary officer.

'But we still have a long way to go before we can fully understand this disease, especially as far as wildlife is concerned,' added Gideon Bruckner of the OIE's scientific department.

One of the problems scientists face is that they still do not know whether the virus can become endemic in wild birds such as ducks and geese and whether these animals can carry the disease without showing any symptoms.

More than 300 experts from over 100 countries met at FAO's headquarters in Rome on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss the spread of the virus, which since 2003 has led to the culling of 200 million domestic fowl and the death of at least 127 people worldwide.

Experts said that while they now have a better knowledge of the spread of the disease in Europe and the Middle East, serious concerns remain about the situation in Africa and Asia.

'We are more concerned (about the virus) in certain parts of the world, but there have been strong advances in reducing the effects of the disease and in making food safer in other areas,' said Juan Lubroth, FAO's senior officer for the Infectious Diseases Group.

'The crisis is not going to go away in six months' time. We will need to keep our guard up for years to come,' Lubroth added.

Officials expressed concern that certain governments, including those of China and Indonesia, were misreporting the extent of the spread of the virus in their countries and called for more funds to improve early detection systems and veterinary services as well as to provide financial compensation to affected farmers.

The Americas remain bird-flu free to date while there is no indication yet that the virus has mutated in a way as to spark human-to-human infections, experts said.

E.U. says bird flu found in 741 birds in 13 member states​

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...AC0B227-49E2-4CA0-AA26-8CAB844A08EC}&keyword=

BRUSSELS (MarketWatch) -- Bird flu has infected over 700 wild birds and poultry in 13 European Union member states as of May 21, the European Commission and the Community Reference Laboratory reported Wednesday.

Roughly 60,000 birds were tested between Feb. 1 and May 21 of this year, said commission spokesman Philip Tod, of which 741 tested positive for some highly pathogenic strain of flu, mostly the H5N1 strain.

The report was presented at a scientific conference in Rome this week.
Tod noted the number of confirmed cases peaked in March with 362 cases, and appears to have declined since then, with 162 cases in April and 17 in May.
Health officials warn citizens must "remain vigilant".

"We cannot let down our guard when it comes to avian influenza, as it is likely to remain a threat for Europe and the rest of the world for many months to come," said Health and Consumer Protection Commissioner Markos Kyprianou.

The bulk of the cases in Europe were found in Germany, the report states, with 326 confirmed cases. The lowest incidence of the virus was in the U.K., which only had one confirmed case in the four-month testing period.

Tod said it's important for individual member states to continue stocking Roche Holding AG's (RHHBY) antiviral drug Tamiflu, saying it's the "first line of defense" against any type of flu pandemic, avian or otherwise.

He added the Commission is considering building up a Union-wide stock of the drug, but only to complement national stocks.

Human-to-Human Bird Flu Cases Reported; Leading Investor Advisor Explains Market Reactions to Fears of a Pandemic



Gold and Energy Advisor Editor James DiGeorgia Warns Investors That Growing
Fear of a Spreading Bird Flu Pandemic Could Lead to Wild Swing in Stocks
and Gold Prices

BOCA RATON, Fla., May 31 /PRNewswire/ -- Since 9/11, the U.S. has been
much more tuned in to geopolitical dangers, and those fears dramatically
affect the stock market. Those dangers include not only terrorist attacks,
but also health epidemics that threaten a wide swath of society.

This past year both private and public health organizations across the
globe have warned of the growing danger of a bird flu pandemic. It's been
featured on the cover of national news magazines and even had its own movie
of the week. But until a few days ago, it wasn't perceived as an imminent
threat.

Fortunately, after the media raised a red flag over what was possibly
the first airborne infection of bird flu, the WHO has now reported that the
first person in the chain of the Indonesian family who fell ill grew and
sold vegetables in a public market, and likely had contact with infected
fowl, and the others probably contracted it through some of the vegetables
or physical contact with the woman.

If the bird flu does mutate and become an airborne virus causing
human-to- human fatalities reported on different continents, the reaction
on Wall Street won't be too dissimilar to what occurred after 9/11-panicked
selling.

James DiGeorgia, editor of Gold and Energy Advisor newsletter, which
provides independent investor analysis (
http://www.goldandenergyadvisor.com ) does warn that predictions of a bird
flu pandemic are currently premature. But if a bird flu pandemic does
become evident, "it could shut down the world's commercial aviation,
shipping industry and ports of entry, creating a devastating effect on the
global markets.

"Three things -- in the worst case scenario -- that I predict would
certainly happen are: 1. The S&P falls 100 to 200 points very quickly; 2.
Gold jumps to well over $850 an ounce; and 3. The Federal Reserve jumps in
to provide liquidity and cuts interest rates to prevent a Wall Street dive
from becoming an economic knock out punch," DiGeorgia explained.

But not all effects of a bird flu pandemic on all financial fronts can
be easily predicted.

"Make no mistake about this: a shut down like that would have a
tremendous impact on the world economy. While the impact on gold and the
U.S. and world stock markets is clear to me, the impact on the energy
markets is less clear. Gasoline, and for that matter oil consumption, could
drop as people stay home hiding from bird flu. But we have to bear in mind
that our international supplies of oil would be cut off, and they provide
most of the oil in the United States."

It seems only prudent that investors pay careful attention to reports
of bird flu, and what could be a major market force.

About Gold and Energy Advisor

The Gold and Energy Advisor is a monthly newsletter that covers the
precious metals and energy markets with the single goal of delivering money
making recommendations to its subscribers. Gold and Energy Advisor is
edited by James DiGeorgia, who has extensive experience in precious metals
and the energy markets, and is considered one of the world's foremost
authorities in both. DiGeorgia authored the popular books "The Global War
for Oil" and "New Bull Market in Gold."

For more information, visit GEA
online at http://www.goldandenergyadvisor.com .

Indonesia is now serious about the proper PPE for health care workers. This photo is from the following article about the most recent H5N1 case for 15 y o male. Note it also describes a new case for 15 y o female from a different village.







31 May, 2006
INDONESIA
Bird flu strikes again in Indonesia with deadly results

A boy is rushed to hospital and dies soon after. His grandfather’s chickens had died two weeks earlier. Many Indonesians view the virus as a natural calamity and do not take the necessary precautions.


Jakarta (AsiaNews/Agencies) – The bird flu has killed again in Indonesia. A 15-year boy from Tasikmalaya town in West Java was rushed to hospital in the city of Bandung on Monday and died a day later, said Hariyadi Wibisono, director of Communicable Disease Control at the Ministry of Health. The boy's grandfather was a chicken farmer and 40 of his chickens had died recently.

The World Health Organisation confirmed Monday that a 15-year-old girl from Solok in western Sumatra has also tested positive for the bird flu and is fighting for her life. By contrast, the conditions of the sole survivor in a cluster of Indonesian relatives from Kubu Sembelang village in North Sumatra infected with bird flu are improving.

Johannes Ginting, 25, is still very weak, lying in an open-air hospital room, chickens pecking outside his door and visitors shuffling in and out without masks or protective gear.

Mr Ginting's mother sits outside her son's hospital room. At least six of her relatives died after being infected and a seventh family member was buried before samples were collected, but she seems unconcerned.

“I'm not afraid. I don't even wear a mask or anything,” she said. “If it spreads, I will be the first one to die. Why would I have to be afraid of chickens around here? The ones who died, they didn’t eat chicken, after all.”

“We had actually given masks and gloves to the family, and we informed them how dangerous this disease is, but they didn’t co-operate with us,” said Nurrasyid Lubis, deputy director of Adam Malik Hospital. “Johannes doesn't want to be injected, doesn't want to take Tamiflu or other antibiotics,” Mr Lubis added.

Nurses and doctors who enter Mr Ginting's room do not wear protective gear like masks, gloves, gowns, goggles and special boots, but no one interfered with the unprotected visitors.

Many people in Mr Ginting's farming village do not believe bird flu caused the deaths because no spouses or neighbours also got sick.

It is believed that the infection spread within the family through human-to-human transmission.

Scientists stress that the H5N1 virus has been transmitted between people in only a handful of other cases. And all such cases have involved passing the virus between blood relatives. Some experts theorise that may mean some people have a genetic susceptibility to the disease, but there is no evidence to support that.

The bird flu has killed at least 124 people worldwide since it began ravaging Asian poultry in late 2003. In Indonesia there have been 49 recorded cases, including 36 deaths.

Indonesian authorities have been criticised for acting too slowly and doing too little to stop the spread of the disease. Many people still have never heard of the bird flu or simply deny it.

“It's a combination of poverty, little education and tendency to compare flu to other diseases or misfortunes. Without enough understanding, people see this as minor,” said Bayu Krisnamurthi of the National Committee on Avian Influenza Control and Pandemic Influenza Preparedness. (PB)

http://www.birdflubreakingnews.com/...http://www.asianews.it/view.php?l=en&art=6319

Fifty-four people in Indonesian bird flu quarantine: WHO ​

20 minutes ago


More than 50 people who may have come into contact with an Indonesian family decimated by bird flu have been placed in voluntary quarantine, the World Health Organisation said.

The UN agency said the number of people in quarantine had increased to 54. But it said no new cases of infection by the potentially deadly H5N1 avian influenza virus have been detected since May 22 in the affected village in North Sumatra, where seven members of the same family were confirmed to have died earlier this month.

"This finding is important as it indicates that the virus has not spread beyond the members of this single extended family," said the WHO in a statement.

"Despite multiple opportunities for the virus to spread to other family members, health care workers or into the general community, it has not, on present evidence, done so."

However, as a precaution, Indonesian health authorities will keep monitoring the village for three more weeks -- one more than recommended by the WHO.

The people in quarantine, who include family members and other close contacts, are receiving the anti-influenza drug Tamiflu as a precaution and are being checked daily for flu symptoms, said the WHO.

Earlier this month, fears of possible human-to-human transmission of avian influenza were heightened after it was confirmed that the family members had died.

The emergence of a strain of bird flu that spreads easily among people would raise the spectre of a global flu pandemic like those which killed millions of people in the past.

The WHO said that the 37-year-old woman who was the first family member to fall sick appeared to have had contact with sick chickens, while the other victims had had close contact with her or fellow family members who subsquently fell ill.

However, said the WHO, there is no reason to hike the current alert level.

"There is no evidence that the virus is spreading in an efficient and sustained manner from one person to another," it said.

More than 120 people have died of bird flu around the world since late 2003, the vast majority of them in Asia.

Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous nation, has had more bird flu deaths than any other country this year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/2006053...VmCnMruOrgF;_ylu=X3oDMTA3MXN1bHE0BHNlYwN0bWE-

Here is a hopeful article, but it says H5N1 in USA this year...

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Poultry experts are turning to sophisticated computer imaging to help them prepare for the expected arrival of the deadly bird flu virus in the United States later this year.

ADVERTISEMENT

Geographic Information System (GIS) technology is being used to pinpoint the location of commercial poultry flocks, feed mills and processing plants, said Sherrill Davison, professor of avian medicine at the University of Pennsylvania.

The information will be used to help create buffer zones around an infected flock and contain the H5N1 strain when it makes its U.S. appearance.

Since the beginning of the year, experts have also been using Google Earth, which combines satellite imagery, maps and the company's search engine to span the globe. It gives extra details including the location of buildings, schools and roads near large chicken and turkey farms and production facilities.

"Twenty years ago we had to drive around the countryside and find the chicken farm that reported a disease, but now everything is on a mapping system," Davison told Reuters in a recent interview.

"Now, we can very quickly, within about an hour, know exactly how many farms are in an (affected) area. Then we can know which farms to send teams to for extra sampling.

"It may be there is an infected flock but they are out in the middle of nowhere and so the probability of spread to another farm is very minimal," she said.

The H5N1 virus that has infected birds and chickens in Asia, Africa and Europe and caused more than 120 deaths there is expected to arrive in North America this summer via migrating birds flying from Asia to Alaska and southwards.

Testing of wild birds is already underway in Alaska but no signs of the bird flu virus have yet been found.

Davison and colleagues at the University of Pennsylvania were among the first to develop GIS technology to monitor poultry flocks in the state in 1998.

They have since used it to detect and control -- by swift culling -- minor outbreaks of avian diseases in Pennsylvania, which ranks third in the United States in chicken production.

Other U.S. states have since adopted the system.

"Many states do have this type of a mapping system which helps with a rapid response that reduces the spread of disease," Davison said.

"We began using Google Earth to help us locate poultry farms more exactly. In the past we knew the chicken house was on a parcel of land but now we can zoom in and tell exactly where on the property it is. ... It is another tool to add into our rapid response program."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060530/wr_nm/birdflu_mapping_dc

A global liquidity crisis...

Wednesday, May 31, 2006 :: infoZine Staff :: page views

Companies Need a More Global, Holistic Approach to Prepare for Potential Avian Flu EpidemicSays Report from The Conference Board

Washington, D.C. - infoZine - An avian flu pandemic, which would unleash disaster across many areas of the world, requires global, holistic planning by companies, according to a new report from The Conference Board, the global research and business membership organization which is celebrating its 90th anniversary this year.

Companies failing to create detailed crisis management and business continuity plans are likely to find themselves at peril.

The avian flu virus, which has spread rapidly in wild-bird and fowl populations through Asia, Europe and Africa, has killed about half the people who have contracted the virus from birds. While the timing and severity of a worldwide pandemic are difficult to predict, the report warns that "to gamble that it won't happen or its impact will be minimal could prove catastrophic for businesses."

Responding to a flu pandemic requires a different kind of business response than natural disasters and other crises. "Unlike most business continuity planning efforts, coping with a pandemic requires a more holistic response," says Ellen Hexter, Director of The Conference Board Integrated Risk Management Program and author of the report. "Most crisis management and business continuity plans are built on the expectation of loss of infrastructure or data, for example. An avian flu pandemic would be nearly the opposite, impacting the workforce in one's own company and throughout the supply chain."

The H5N1 avian flu virus first infected humans in 1997 in Hong Kong. Since then, it has spread via the bird population throughout Asia and into parts of Europe and Africa. Humans have contracted the disease primarily through improper handling of infected birds.

Managing A Potential Disaster

Pandemic crisis management requires a range of tools, from scenario planning to creating global, company-wide strategies to deal with potential disasters. The creation of crisis management and business continuity planning can help transform risk mitigation strategies into business processes to manage extraordinary events.

The development of risk mitigation plans are transferable to other risk management areas and functions. Because a real pandemic would likely cause high employee absenteeism and damage a company's ability to produce goods or services, an avian flu pandemic would have a global rather than a single-area impact.

Balancing Human Needs With Corporate Needs

The threat of a severe pandemic has driven many companies to develop detailed crisis management and business continuity plans. While first tending to the human needs of employees, their families and others, companies are now developing plans to deal with periodic and extended business interruptions.

"At the very least, companies ought to consider how to continue when work practices must be altered to reflect the reality of a changed environment," says Hexter. "Meetings, travel, and even office environments can spread infection through an extensive population. Because of this, companies can play major rules in containing the spread of the virus if they plan adequately."

For example, in October 2005, the Netherlands-based global bank ABN Amro set up a task force to plan company-wide strategy to deal with a potential flu crisis. It created plans to educate all employees about symptoms and appropriate responses; made the decision to not purchase anti-viral medication as a matter of principle; and emphasized ethical considerations of stockpiling drugs in light of their current scarcity. The group also recommended setting up a task force team in each country where the company operates to monitor the health environment.

After considering human needs, managers must face the challenge of assessing risks to the continued health of their businesses. Identifying key people and processes is necessary to sustain business in the face of a pandemic. Many companies are choosing to run scenarios of how to get work done with 20 percent to 30 percent of their workforce incapacitated-and even greater losses of workers in certain areas.

One global hotel chain is considering closing its properties in locations where the virus has spread. Other companies are considering shutting down non-critical processes or producing only key products. Roche has determined that it will attempt to continue to produce its anti-viral medication along with other life-saving medications.

Entire Supply Chains Might Be Threatened

"The interconnectedness of the global economy suggests that a business slowdown in one sector is likely to have an impact across many sectors," says Hexter. "If travel comes to a standstill, airlines, hotels, restaurants, and convention businesses will start a ripple effect though local economies. Some companies may be hard pressed to make lease payments to their lenders, and financial institutions could face liquidity problems. Companies must consider the impact not only on their business, but on their entire supply chain."


A Global Cash Squeeze And Liquidity Crisis?

When developing scenarios and possible mitigation plans, companies must think about extra costs, loss of production or service delivery capabilities, and impacts to their cash flow and income. Companies are likely to continue to pay people as long as they are able--even when not producing or selling goods--contributing to a potentially significant cash squeeze and possibly a global liquidity crisis.

"Realistically, companies are unable to mitigate every potential risk because the costs are simply too high," says Hexter. "But understanding the possible implications is important, and building enough financial flexibility in the form of additional liquid assets or access to increased lines of credit can cushion a temporary disruption of a normal business environment."

Employee engagement is important when developing action plans. Besides ethical concerns, companies need to consider a vast range of issues, from increased security for IT systems, to supporting those working from home, to designing communications plans and back-up alternatives for employees and their families. Companies also must engage their suppliers and customers to ensure the viability of their supply chains, particularly for critical goods and services.

Human resources functions must remain intact in the event of an avian flu pandemic. Policies for continuing to pay employees, for adequate sick leave, and for when infected employees can return to work all need to be considered.

Establishing teams and plans to develop educational materials and policies for a potential pandemic is a way to help ensure the continuity of a business. The first line of communications may be to point employees looking for information to the World Health Organization's website. Local emergency management teams should be the communications conduit to employees in specific areas. Protocols for interfacing with local health officials to accurately track infection and offer guidance should be developed.

"This kind of business continuity planning effort will lay the foundation for companies to begin thinking about expanding these policies into enterprise risk management," concludes Hexter.\\


http://www.infozine.com/news/stories/op/storiesView/sid/15411/

Bird flu and fruits and vegetables

One of the reports mentioned that the initial victim, the woman who died and was buried before they realized she had bird flu, was a gardener who worked with chicken manure and some thought that might have been how she contracted the illness. I wondered, if anyone out there knows, how long bird flu could survive and if it would even be communicable, if it were in the manure used to fertilize fruits and vegetables from other countries.
I always wash all my produce - you never know what was used for fertilizers outside of the US - but I wondered about our susceptibility through our food chain.