05/02 | Draft of U.S. pandemic plan sees massive disruptions but no border closings

Link to yesterday's thread: http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=195704

Human Cases

Since January, 2004 WHO has reported human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) in the following countries:

* East Asia and the Pacific:
o Cambodia
o China
o Indonesia
o Thailand
o Vietnam

* Europe & Eurasia:
o Azerbaijan
(see update)
o Turkey

* Near East:
o Egypt
o Iraq

For additional information about these reports, visit the
World Health Organization Web Site.

Updated April 3, 2006

Animal Cases

Since December 2003, avian influenza A (H5N1) infections in poultry or wild birds have been reported in the following countries:

* Africa:
o Burkina Faso
o Cameroon
o Niger
o Nigeria
o Sudan

* East Asia & the Pacific:
o Cambodia
o China
o Hong Kong (SARPRC)
o Indonesia
o Japan
o Laos
o Malaysia
o Mongolia
o Myanmar (Burma)
o Thailand
o Vietnam

* South Asia:
o Afghanistan
o India
o Kazakhstan
o Pakistan

* Near East:
o Egypt
o Iraq (H5)
o Iran
o Israel
o Jordan

* Europe & Eurasia:
o Albania
o Austria
o Azerbaijan
o Bosnia & Herzegovina
o Bulgaria
o Croatia
o Czech Republic (H5)
o Denmark
o France
o Georgia
o Germany
o Greece
o Hungary
o Italy
o Poland
o Romania
o Russia
o Serbia & Montenegro
o Slovak Republic
o Slovenia
o Sweden
o Switzerland
o Turkey
o Ukraine
o United Kingdom


For additional information about these reports, visit the
World Organization for Animal Health Web Site.

Updated April 24, 2006

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/current.htm

WHO, Avian Flu Timeline in .pdf: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/timeline.pdf

as told in Canadian Press

Draft of U.S. pandemic plan sees massive disruptions but no border closing​

WASHINGTON (AP) - The U.S. government forecasts massive disruptions if bird flu or some other super-strain of influenza arises, with as much as 40 per cent of the national work force off the job, but it doesn't foresee closing U.S. borders to fight the spread, according to a draft of the national response plan obtained Monday by The Associated Press.

An outbreak could lead the government to limit international flights, quarantine exposed travellers and otherwise restrict movement in and around the country.

But a complete shutdown of the border would not be likely, nor would it do more than slow the pandemic's spread by a few weeks, according to the plan that is being finalized by Bush administration officials for release Wednesday at the White House.

"While we will consider all options to limit the spread of a pandemic virus, we recognize complete border closure would be difficult to enforce, present foreign affairs complications and have significant negative social and economic consequences," the 228-page draft report says.

Pandemics can strike when the easy-to-mutate influenza virus shifts to a strain that people have never experienced, something that has happened three times in the past century. The government is preparing for a worst-case scenario of up to 2 million deaths in the United States.

It's impossible to predict when the next pandemic will strike, or how great its toll might be. But concern is rising that the Asian bird flu, called the H5N1 strain, might lead to one if it eventually starts spreading easily from person to person.

So far, H5N1 has struck more than 200 people since 2003, killing about half of them. Virtually all the victims caught it from close contact with infected poultry or droppings.

The plan says preparedness for a pandemic could take years, and so significant steps must be taken immediately across all levels of government and the private sector to protect national security, the economy and the basic functioning of society.

The report aims to energize the private sector, noting that 85 per cent of the systems that are vital to society, such as food production, medicine and financial services, are privately run.

"While a pandemic will not damage power lines, banks or computer networks, it has the potential ultimately to threaten all critical infrastructure by its impact on an organization's human resources by removing essential personnel from the workplace for weeks or months," the report says.

Not only would sick workers stay home, but so would anyone who caring for ill family members, under quarantine because of possible exposure to the flu or taking care of children when schools shut down. The same could go for anyone who simply feels safer at home.

Included in the report's advice for employers: Have workers remain at least three feet apart or otherwise limit face-to-face contact to limit the flu's spread, including by working from home or substituting teleconferences for office meetings.

The report envisions possible breakdowns in public order and says governors might deploy National Guard troops or request federal troops to maintain order.

Last fall, President George W. Bush announced a $7.1 billion US strategy to fight the next flu pandemic, focusing largely on public health preparations - including plans to stockpile enough bird flu vaccine for 20 million people and anti-flu drugs for 81 million. So far, the stockpile contains enough vaccine for 4 million people and medication for 5 million.

http://www.mytelus.com/news/article.do?pageID=cp_health_home&articleID=2246523

as told in US MSM

AP: in Pandemic Draft Plan, Borders Open​

May 1st, 2006 @ 5:08pm

By NEDRA PICKLER and LAURAN NEERGAARD
Associated Press Writers

WASHINGTON (AP) - The government forecasts massive disruptions if bird flu or some other super-strain of influenza arises, with as much as 40 percent of the national work force off the job, but it doesn't foresee closing U.S. borders to fight the spread, according to a draft of the national response plan obtained Monday by The Associated Press.

An outbreak could lead the government to limit international flights, quarantine exposed travelers and otherwise restrict movement in and around the country.

But a complete shutdown of the border would not be likely, nor would it do more than slow the pandemic's spread by a few weeks, according to the plan that is being finalized by Bush administration officials for release Wednesday at the White House.

"While we will consider all options to limit the spread of a pandemic virus, we recognize complete border closure would be difficult to enforce, present foreign affairs complications and have significant negative social and economic consequences," the 228-page draft report says.

Pandemics can strike when the easy-to-mutate influenza virus shifts to a strain that people have never experienced, something that has happened three times in the past century. The government is preparing for a worst-case scenario of up to 2 million deaths in the United States.

It's impossible to predict when the next pandemic will strike, or how great its toll might be. But concern is rising that the Asian bird flu, called the H5N1 strain, might lead to one if it eventually starts spreading easily from person to person.

So far, H5N1 has struck more than 200 people since 2003, killing about half of them. Virtually all the victims caught it from close contact with infected poultry or droppings.

The plan says preparedness for a pandemic could take years, and so significant steps must be taken immediately across all levels of government and the private sector to protect national security, the economy and the basic functioning of society.

The report aims to energize the private sector, noting that 85 percent of the systems that are vital to society, such as food production, medicine and financial services, are privately run.

"While a pandemic will not damage power lines, banks or computer networks, it has the potential ultimately to threaten all critical infrastructure by its impact on an organization's human resources by removing essential personnel from the workplace for weeks or months," the report says.

Not only would sick workers stay home, but so would anyone who caring for ill family members, under quarantine because of possible exposure to the flu or taking care of children when schools shut down. The same could go for anyone who simply feels safer at home.

Included in the report's advice for employers: Have workers remain at least three feet apart or otherwise limit face-to-face contact to limit the flu's spread, including by working from home or substituting teleconferences for office meetings.

The report envisions possible breakdowns in public order and says governors might deploy National Guard troops or request federal troops to maintain order.

Last fall, President Bush announced a $7.1 billion strategy to fight the next flu pandemic, focusing largely on public health preparations _ including plans to stockpile enough bird flu vaccine for 20 million people and anti-flu drugs for 81 million. So far, the stockpile contains enough vaccine for 4 million people and medication for 5 million.

This new report is Step 2, outlining how every branch of government would have to work together with federal health officials to try to contain a pandemic and minimize its damage to the economy and society. By early next month, government agencies are to release the specific steps they plan.

The report attempts to settle any turf battle within the administration, saying the Department of Health and Human Services would lead the government's interagency response effort and the Department of Homeland Security would have a secondary role to assist with the health response and non-medical support.

If a pandemic begins abroad, federal health officials are guaranteed to take certain initial steps, such as screening travelers arriving from affected areas and putting the possibly infected into quarantine. Ship and plane captains already are required to report certain on-board illnesses upon arrival, but crews would be trained to take such steps as putting a surgical mask on a coughing traveler.

With no border restrictions, pandemic influenza would arrive in the United States within two months of an outbreak abroad, the document estimates. But models of influenza's spread suggest that sealing the U.S. border would not only be impractical _ 1.1 million people cross the nation's 317 official ports of entry daily _ but it would only delay the inevitable by a few weeks, it says.

Domestically, Americans take an average of 1.1 billion trips a day _ four for every person.

The new document promises that the Bush administration will create a "toolkit" of options to help mayors, governors and transportation officials decide what, if any, restrictions on that travel would be appropriate at different stages of a pandemic. It calls mandatory quarantine a last resort, and urges planners to consider, for example, that closing a community would sever it from the delivery of groceries and other essential goods.

The military could be activated to enforce travel restrictions and deliver vaccines and medicines, the report says.

Colleges should consider whether dormitories could be used to house or quarantine the sick, and establish mandatory sick-leave policies for anyone exposed to the flu.

Repeatedly, the report stresses that government must provide accurate and timely information to citizens, who could either help or hinder flu's spread through their own actions.

"The collective response of 300 million Americans will significantly influence the shape of the pandemic and its medical, social and economic outcomes," the report says. "Institutions in danger of becoming overwhelmed will rely on the voluntarism and sense of civic and humanitarian duty of ordinary Americans."

___

On the Net:

http://www.pandemicflu.gov

http://www.620ktar.com/?nid=36&sid=180042

PCV, the whole thing stinks of mayhem, hopefully they drop before they cross the border. Reading this, it is clear that the King Jorge administration has no idea what they're up against, this is Mother Nature...and she's pretty ticked as you keep posting the countries confirming...it just takes one person to light the match to the inferno smoldering.

Grounding air travel won't substantially slow spread of pandemic flu: study​

TORONTO (CP) - World leaders could face serious pressure to impose travel bans on affected nations in the early days of a flu pandemic. But even grounding virtually all air travel would only serve to moderately delay spread of a pandemic strain, a new study suggests.

Using mathematical models, researchers with Britain's Health Protection Agency concluded that even if 99.9 per cent of air travel could be halted, a pandemic strain would be delayed from hitting most cities by, at most, about four months.

"Even large and widely enforced travel restrictions would usually delay epidemic peaks by only a few days," the authors wrote in the journal Public Library of Science Medicine. "To have a major impact, restrictions would have to be almost total and almost instantaneous."

A leading U.S. modelling expert said the findings confirm work he and other groups have shown - that flu cannot be contained this way.

"It spreads so fast and the epidemics are so explosive that (in spite of) almost anything you do, cases are going to get through unless you're incredibly - unrealistically - effective at . . . shutting down transportation," said Ira Longini of the School of Public Health and Community Medicine at the University of Washington.

"It's just not a practical control strategy. It just buys you a few weeks at best." And that's not enough time to make a real difference. It wouldn't be sufficient time, for instance, for the few countries with flu vaccine production capacity to protect their citizenry by making and widely administering a vaccine.

"Even when 99.9 per cent of air traffic was suspended, most cities had a low probability of ultimately escaping the pandemic and delays large enough to be of clinical significance (six months or more) were common only if interventions were made after the first few cases," wrote the authors, who are with the British agency's Centre for Infections.

The study was not commenting on the likelihood of success of the World Health Organization's plan to try to contain a pandemic at source.

That plan, supported by mathematical models, hypothesizes that it might be possible to extinguish an nascent pandemic strain in the very early days if movement out of the area where it emerged was cut off and if people within the area were given antiviral drugs to prevent spread of flu.

In fact, the authors of this study suggest focusing resources on that containment effort would probably be more valuable than drawing up plans to ban air travel once a pandemic has started.

Grounding all international air travel would create huge problems for the transport of essential goods and would decimate an already fragile industry.

The director of immunization and respiratory infections for the Public Health Agency of Canada said this study, along with two other recent modelling efforts, reinforces the belief of experts that grounding planes isn't an appropriate response.

"Shutting down plane travel is unlikely to be effective or sustainable because of the way influenza behaves," said Dr. Theresa Tam. Some diseases lend themselves to containment using travel restrictions - something like SARS, for instance, where only people showing symptoms were infectious and there was a long incubation period that allowed authorities to monitor people who'd been exposed.

But influenza is not one of them. Flu has a short incubation period, typically one to four days. And people who are incubating the disease can spread it before realizing they are sick.

The authors conclude that attempting to screen incoming air travellers for disease once a pandemic has started would also be a wasted effort, saying "such an intervention would have a negligible impact on the course of a pandemic once it was underway."

They suggested that rather than working on strategies to restrict travel in the early phases of a pandemic, public health authorities should focus their efforts on planning ways to slow spread within a community once a pandemic strain has arrived. School closures are considered one possible way to slow spread.

http://www.mytelus.com/news/article.do?pageID=cp_travel_home&articleID=2246598

The current H5N1 is still viable for six days at 37 degrees Celsius

Bird flu virus hardier, lives for longer -experts​

02 May 2006 07:32:59 GMT
Source: Reuters

By Tan Ee Lyn

SINGAPORE, May 2 (Reuters) - Leading influenza experts urged nations not to lower their guard against the deadly and hardy H5N1 virus, saying it now survives longer in higher temperatures and in wet and moist conditions.

Scientists previously found the virus to be most active and transmissible among birds in the cooler months from October to March in the northern hemisphere, and many people were hoping for some respite in the coming summer months.

But influenza expert Robert Webster warned against complacency and underestimating the virus, which made its first documented jump to humans from birds in 1997 in Hong Kong, killing six people.

"When we tested the virus in Hong Kong from 1997, the virus was killed at 37 degrees Celsius (98 Fahrenheit) in two days. The current H5N1 is still viable for six days at 37," said Webster, from St Jude Children's Research Hospital in the U.S. city Memphis.

"H5N1 at room temperatures can stay (alive) for at least a week in wet conditions," Webster told Reuters on the eve of a bird flu conference organised by the Lancet medical journal in Singapore.

"One of the often overlooked facts about influenza is that it's more heat stable than people realize, especially under moist, damp conditions ... Don't trust it," he said.

Webster said heat-stable strains of H5N1 were already circulating in ducks in Vietnam, Indonesia, China in 2004 and 2005 and experts would have to test if this trait was in the variants now circulating in India, Africa, Europe and parts of the Middle East.

Since re-emerging in Asia in late 2003, the H5N1 virus is known to have infected 205 people, killing 113 of them. In the past few months, it has spread from Asia to parts of Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

Although it is predominantly a bird disease and most of the victims contracted the virus directly from poultry, experts fear it might change into a form that transmits easily among people and trigger a pandemic.

BREAKING THE CHAIN

The virus's growing adaptability to water has ominous implications because it means untreated water might no longer be safe, Webster said, and it was important to drink boiled water.

"This means that water supplies for feeding chickens, or water supplies where people are swimming and water supplies for villages have got to be treated," he said.

Other experts also called for concerted action and determination in breaking the chain of transmission of the virus, which resides largely in the world's reservoir of 250 billion domestic birds and 50 billion migrating birds.

"You can break the chain of transmission into the human population. The best place to break it is either to protect the domestic birds from the migratory birds. Or alternatively, remove humans from the domestic birds and break the chain of transmission and you are halfway there," said John Oxford, virology professor at the Royal London Hospital.

Kennedy Shortridge, who spent three decades studying influenza viruses, called for a complete rethink of the way poultry should be raised in parts of Asia, where ducks -- natural reservoirs of flu viruses -- are raised in padi fields to get rid of rice pests. Ducks are also raised alongside chickens, and cross infection is all too common.

"When I first saw the beginnings of intensive raising of poultry in the early 1980s in southern China, to me, the alarm bells were there," said Shortridge, who described these padi fields as "nothing more than fecal soups of influenza viruses".

In an interview, he also called for a change in the ways chickens are now raised. Conditions were often too stressful for the birds and this made them vulnerable to disease.

"We've got to find other sources of protein, other than just chicken. And the chickens have to be raised in such a way that the birds are not going to be stressed and not susceptible to so many infections," he said.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/T151771.htm

May 02, 2006

Vets track spread of bird flu strain​

By Valerie Elliott

Blood samples from birds culled in Norfolk show they had the H7N3 virus for longer than was thought

GOVERNMENT vets were checking farms in Norfolk last night after it emerged that a bird flu virus has been present in Britain for at least a month.

The latest theory is that a free-range egg company, which kept 15,300 chickens outdoors on two farms, is now the likely source of the infection, probably after some contact with an infected wild bird.

More than 50,000 chickens have now been culled on Norfolk Road Farm and Mowles Manor Farm at North Tuddenham, owned by Geoffrey Dann and his son, Simon.

Blood samples from birds on their farm showed that they had been exposed to the H7N3 virus as long ago as four weeks.

This company is less than half a mile from Banhams chicken breeding farm at Whitford Lodge, where 35,000 birds were culled last week after the low pathogenic avian flu strain was confirmed in the county. Birds on the free range unit, however, suffered only a mild form of the flu and none died from the infection. They had to be culled because H7N3 flu is a notifiable disease.

It is still unclear how the virus was transported from the egg farm to the Banhams chicken farm, where it killed some 400 chickens and triggered a drop in egg production by other birds.

Such a reaction to avian flu is expected on intensive commercial units where there are large numbers of birds who live indoors at close quarters.

State vets have been unable to find a link between the egg and the chicken farms. An infected wild bird, or its faeces on a worker’s foot, or vehicle, are still thought to be the most likely routes for the infection.

Farmers around the country have also been reporting suspicious signs of sickness or a fall in egg production and the Veterinary Laboratory Agency, in Weybridge, Surrye, is testing numerous samples.

So far, however, all tests have been negative.

Officials at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs are determined to ensure that the country’s

£600 million-a-year chicken export trade is maintained. Ministers will today make representations to the Japanese Embassy and Hong Kong High Commission, in London, over their trade bans against Britain.

Japan has halted all trade in eggs, chicken and breeding birds from Britain, and Hong Kong has banned produce from Norfolk.

Such bans are in breach of international law, however, and can be imposed only if a highly pathogenic bird flu strain is present. So far, government vets have found only the less virulent H7N3 strain.

International quarantine measures, such as restricting air travel from countries with a serious influenza outbreak, would do little to halt the spread of a pandemic, a study by British scientists has found (Mark Henderson writes).
A strain of flu that passed easily from person to person would move around the world more quickly than it could be detected, making airport closures largely ineffective, according to computer simulations by the Health Protection Agency. For restrictions on air travel from infected countries to delay a pandemic, it would be necessary for almost all travel to be stopped immediately as soon as the virus emerges, scientists found.

The findings, published today in the open-access journal Public Library of Science Medicine, suggest that the costs of restricting international air travel in a pandemic are likely to outweight the benefits

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2160597,00.html

PCViking said:

Bird flu virus hardier, lives for longer -experts​

02 May 2006 07:32:59 GMT
Source: Reuters

By Tan Ee Lyn

SINGAPORE, May 2 (Reuters) - Leading influenza experts urged nations not to lower their guard against the deadly and hardy H5N1 virus, saying it now survives longer in higher temperatures and in wet and moist conditions.

Scientists previously found the virus to be most active and transmissible among birds in the cooler months from October to March in the northern hemisphere, and many people were hoping for some respite in the coming summer months.


"H5N1 at room temperatures can stay (alive) for at least a week in wet conditions," Webster told Reuters on the eve of a bird flu conference organised by the Lancet medical journal in Singapore.

"One of the often overlooked facts about influenza is that it's more heat stable than people realize, especially under moist, damp conditions ... Don't trust it," he said.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/T151771.htm

Click to expand...

This is

Nothing to worry about bird flu's not coming to US this year!

Top Bird Flu Scientist: Virus Won't Hit U.S. in 2006
Tuesday , May 02, 2006

SINGAPORE — A top bird flu expert on Tuesday predicted that the H5N1 virus will not reach the United States this year via migratory birds, but warned it will eventually arrive — possibly through infected birds smuggled into the country.

Robert G. Webster, a virologist at the St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn., said it has been historically rare for bird influenza viruses to reach the Americas from Europe.

He said infected birds being smuggled into the U.S. pose a bigger threat right now than fears that migratory birds en route to America might mix with infected birds from Europe or Asia.

For complete bird flu coverage, visit FOXNews.com's Bird Flu Center.

"While wildlife people in the United States are watching for the appearance of this virus, I would suspect that it may not come this year," he told The Associated Press.

"If it doesn't come this year, don't relax, because it will eventually come," said Webster, who is in Singapore ahead of a two-day conference this week that is expected to draw many of the world's leading scientists on bird flu.

The H5N1 bird flu virus began ravaging Asian poultry stocks in late 2003 and has since killed at least 113 people worldwide. So far, most human cases have been linked to contact with infected birds.

Experts, however, fear the virus will mutate into a form that easily spreads from person to person, potentially sparking a global pandemic.

Webster said he's most concerned about the virus becoming established in the world's wild bird populations. He said most highly pathogenic avian viruses usually do not last long in nature. They typically start in wild birds, infect domestic birds and eventually die out.

"This one has broken the rules and gone back from the domestics into the wild birds. Is it going to be perpetuated there as a killer? That's the million dollar question," he said. "Will that virus go to the breeding grounds in Siberia and Africa and come back again? If it does, then the chances are eventually it will learn to go human to human."

Webster, who's been researching bird influenza for decades, said the spread of the virus to Africa is especially worrying because of the lack of infrastructure, political instability and a health system already overrun by diseases like HIV/AIDS.

With "all of those things going on in Africa, you could get human-to-human transmission started and not have the opportunity to do anything about it until it's out of hand," he said.

John Oxford, a professor of virology at Queen Mary's University of London, agreed that Africa is a major concern, but said attention should not be diverted from Asia.

He said countries should learn from recent catastrophes like the Indian Ocean tsunami and Hurricane Katrina in the U.S., that warning systems and preparedness plans must be implemented instead of just being discussed.

"They had been warned, but they didn't take any notice," he said of the natural disasters. "It's all very boring for these politicians to have all these scientists knocking at their doors saying, 'You'd better be careful. This is a threat.'"

He said the recent recreation of the 1918 Spanish flu, which killed up to 40 million people and sickened an estimated 20 percent to 40 percent of the world's population, has allowed scientists a rare chance to compare what happened back then to the situation today.

"Are we all running around the world telling people it's Armageddon and all that's happened is 100 people have died?" Oxford said. "I see this as like 1916. You have to learn from what happened. You cannot persuade yourself and other people that this is nothing."
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,193929,00.html

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/medicalnews.php?newsid=10493


Asian bird flu became highly pathogenic through continued circulation and gene swapping

Avian flu virus that caused poultry outbreaks and human deaths in East Asia since 1997 appears to have arisen in domestic ducks in southern China and continues to evolve by gene reassortment

An avian influenza virus that has caused three major outbreaks among poultry and killed several people in East Asia over the past seven years arose through a series of genetic reassortment events with other viruses. This study finding, by scientists from St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, the People's Republic of China, China's Special Administrative Region of Hong Kong, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia, is published in the July 8 online edition of Nature.

Reassortment is the swapping of genes when two or more viruses infect the same animal.

The researchers say that their study of the genetic makeup of H5N1 subtypes collected since 1997 traces the evolution of the virus into a dangerous pathogen through a series of reassortment events. Results of the study indicate that domestic ducks in southern China played a key role in the generation of this virus. The H5N1 virus forced health authorities to slaughter millions of chickens in order to prevent the spread of the disease, which can quickly wipe out poultry in open-air markets and farms and spread to other flocks.

The investigators warn that outbreaks of H5N1 in East Asian poultry populations must be rapidly and effectively controlled to prevent H5N1 from evolving into a virus that causes a human pandemic, or worldwide epidemic. By cleaning up open-air markets and regularly slaughtering infected birds, Hong Kong remained free of H5N1 outbreaks in poultry during the 2004 influenza crisis, according to Robert Webster, Ph.D., member of Infectious Diseases department and holder of the Rose Marie Thomas Chair at St. Jude, and Richard Webby, Ph.D., also of the department of Infectious Diseases at St. Jude.

"In order to reduce the ability of H5N1 to trigger another poultry epidemic, officials in East Asia must follow Hong Kong's lead," Webster said. "Otherwise, H5N1 will likely continue to infect birds and other animals and eventually could evolve into a dangerous human pathogen as well."

Webster and Webby are co-authors of the Nature report, which details genetic studies of the evolving H5N1 virus that caused the initial human outbreak in Hong Kong in 1997. The report traces the origins of the outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 disease in Asian poultry that occurred in 2003 and 2004.

The researchers collected samples of the virus from poultry in Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, and from humans in Thailand and Vietnam. They then compared the eight genes carried by these viruses with the eight genes carried by samples of 253 H5N1 viruses collected from live poultry markets in Hong Kong and the Chinese provinces of Guangdong, Hunan and Yunnan between 2000 and 2004.

The study found that H5N1 viruses occurred only in ducks during 2000, but from 2001 on, the viruses spread to chickens, too. Furthermore, the various H5N1 viruses isolated over the years all contained two genes (HA and NA) derived from the same, older virus called Goose/Guangdong/1/96. The other six genes came from various influenza viruses through reassortment. HA and NA are two proteins on the surface of flu viruses that permit the virus to infect cells and to spread from animal to animal or from person to person.

The study also showed that a specific type of H5N1 called the Z genotype, although widely entrenched in poultry in southern China, is still adapting to these birds, suggesting that these viruses will continue to evolve through mutation or reassortment to achieve greater fitness in poultry species.

In addition, the researchers found that genotype Z viruses in Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia carried a specific mutation in a protein called M2, known to cause resistance to a family of antiviral drugs used to treat human influenza. The mutation also developed in some genotype B, Y and Z+ viruses.

The fact that the M2 resistance mutation is arising in different viruses suggests that it can be readily acquired, according to the researchers. If this gene were passed on to a human flu virus during reassortment in an animal infected with both avian and human influenza viruses, the resulting virus would be resistant to an important family of drugs.

In fact, the common human influenza H3N2 has been found inside pigs in southern China, according to the St. Jude researchers. If H5N1 infects a pig harboring H3N2, these two viruses might swap genes. The resulting "recombinant" virus might be particularly dangerous to humans, depending on which gene or genes it acquired.

The report in Nature also notes other indications that H5N1 could evolve into a worldwide threat to humans: the outbreak of H5N1 in poultry in Asia in 2003 and 2004 was unprecedented in its geographical range, which showed the wide reach this virus already has.

"The transmission of H5N1 to even just a relatively few people was an ominous sign that it has the potential to adapt to humans," Webster said.

A key question left unanswered by the present study is whether the highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus is now being spread by wild migratory birds.

"Although these deadly viruses were isolated from dead migrating birds, we don't know if the birds are actually spreading H5N1," Webby said. "We must do further research to find out, since migratory birds could conceivably spread highly pathogenic H5N1 throughout the rest of Asia and into Europe and the Americas."

The key to preventing a human pandemic of H5N1 is the rapid and effective control of poultry infections, the St. Jude researchers say. And while this is a challenging task, the recent success of Hong Kong in avoiding H5N1 poultry outbreaks due to preventive measures taken demonstrates the wisdom of this approach.

The culling of hundreds of millions of poultry across East Asia reduced the threat of transmission of bird flu to humans, and possibly even prevented the outbreak of a human pandemic, the St. Jude researchers said. But that public health victory came at a significant cost to poultry farms. The question remaining is whether such farmers and their governments should bear this financial burden by themselves.

"If we consider H5N1 to be a global problem that could get much worse, perhaps the costs should be borne instead by the World Health Organization's global influenza program," Webster said. "The results of this study are a wake-up call for the world to provide the resources needed to prevent future outbreaks of H5N1 among poultry or to prepare for a human pandemic of a very dangerous virus."

This work was supported in part by the National Institutes of Health, The Wellcome Trust, the Ellison Foundation, the Li Ka Shing Foundation and the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong. Other authors of the report are K. S. Li (Shantou University Medical College; Guangdon, P.R. China); Y. Guan, J. Wang, K. M. Xu, L. Duan, H. Chen, J.S. M. Peiris (Shantou University and The University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital; Hong Kong SAR P.R. China); G. J.D. Smith, L.L. M. Poon, K.Y. Yuen (The University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital; Hong Kong SAR, P.R. China); A. P. Rahaedjo, A.T. S. Estoepangeste (Universitas Airlangga; Surabaya, Indonesia); P. Puthavathana, P. Auewarakul (Sriraj Hospital; Bangkok, Thailand); C. Buranathai and A. Chaisingh (National Institute of Animal Health; Bangkok, Thailand); H.T. Long and N.T. H. Hanh (National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology; Hanoi, Vietnam); and W. Lim (Department of Health, Hong Kong SAR, P.R. China).

St. Jude Children's Research Hospital

St. Jude Children's Research Hospital is internationally recognized for its pioneering work in finding cures and saving children with cancer and other catastrophic diseases. Founded by late entertainer Danny Thomas and based in Memphis, Tennessee, St. Jude freely shares its discoveries with scientific and medical communities around the world. No family ever pays for treatments not covered by insurance, and families without insurance are never asked to pay. St. Jude is financially supported by ALSAC, its fundraising organization. For more information, please visit www.stjude.org.

Bush administration predicts massive disruptions if pandemic hits ​

Updated 5/2/2006 7:25 AM ET
By Nedra Pickler, The Associated Press

WASHINGTON — Employers should have plans to keep workers at least three feet apart, colleges should consider which dormitories could be used to quarantine the sick, and flight crews should have surgical masks to put on coughing travelers, according to a draft of the government's pandemic flu plan obtained by The Associated Press.
The Bush administration forecasts massive disruptions if bird flu or some other super-strain of influenza arises in the United States. A response plan scheduled to be released at the White House on Wednesday warns employers that as much as 40% of the workforce could be off the job and says every segment of society must prepare.

"The collective response of 300 million Americans will significantly influence the shape of the pandemic and its medical, social and economic outcomes," says an undated 228-page draft version of the report that had not been finalized. "Institutions in danger of becoming overwhelmed will rely on the voluntarism and sense of civic and humanitarian duty of ordinary Americans."

An outbreak could lead to a variety of restrictions on movement in and around the country, including limiting the number of international flights and quarantining exposed travelers. But the government does not foresee closing U.S. borders to fight the spread of flu, in part because it would only slow the pandemic's spread by a few weeks and because it would have such significant consequences for the economy and foreign affairs.

It's impossible to predict when the next pandemic will strike, or how great its toll might be. But concern is rising that the Asian bird flu, called the H5N1 strain, might lead to one if it eventually starts spreading easily from person to person.

So far, H5N1 has struck more than 200 people since 2003, killing about half of them. Virtually all the victims caught it from close contact with infected poultry or droppings.

The government is preparing for a worst-case scenario of up to 2 million deaths in the United States.

With no border restrictions, pandemic influenza would arrive in the United States within two months of an outbreak abroad, the document estimates. But models of influenza's spread suggest that sealing the U.S. border would not only be impractical — 1.1 million people cross the nation's 317 official ports of entry daily — but it would only delay the inevitable by a few weeks, it says.

Ship and plane captains already are required to report certain on-board illnesses upon arrival, but crews would be trained to take such steps as putting a surgical mask on a traveler who is coughing.

The new document calls mandatory quarantine a last resort, and urges planners to consider, for example, that closing a community would sever it from the delivery of groceries and other essential goods.

The report aims to energize the private sector, noting that 85% of the systems that are vital to society, such as food production, medicine and financial services, are privately run.

Not only would sick workers stay home, but so would anyone who was caring for ill family members, under quarantine because of possible exposure to the flu or taking care of children when schools shut down. The same could go for anyone who simply feels safer at home.

Included in the report's advice:

•Employers should have workers remain at least three feet apart or otherwise limit face-to-face contact to limit the flu's spread, including by working from home or substituting teleconferences for office meetings.

•Colleges should consider whether dormitories could be used to house or quarantine the sick, and establish mandatory sick-leave policies for anyone exposed to the flu.

The report envisions possible breakdowns in public order and says governors might deploy National Guard troops or request federal troops to maintain order. The military also could be activated to enforce travel restrictions and deliver vaccines and medicines, the report says.

Last fall, President Bush announced a $7.1 billion strategy to fight the next flu pandemic, focusing largely on public health preparations, including plans to stockpile enough bird flu vaccine for 20 million people and anti-flu drugs for 81 million. So far, the stockpile contains enough vaccine for 4 million people and medication for 5 million.

This new report is Step 2, outlining how every branch of government would have to work with federal health officials to try to contain a pandemic and minimize its damage to the economy and society. By early next month, government agencies are to release the specific steps they plan.

The report attempts to settle any turf battle within the administration, saying the Health and Human Services Department would lead the government's interagency response effort and the Homeland Security Department would have a secondary role to assist with the health response and non-medical support.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-05-02-bird-flu_x.htm

Avian flu could cripple telecom services, Internet​

05/01/06 -- 02:25 PM
By Ethan Butterfield,

Results of a recent influenza pandemic outbreak simulation show that telecommunications systems could be overwhelmed, and the Internet could shut down within two to four days of an outbreak.

The results> of a simulation conducted by Booz Allen Hamilton Inc. of McLean, Va., and the World Economic Forum, found that an outbreak of avian flu would severely challenge the ability of governments and the private sector to manage essential services and communicate crucial information.
Because telecommuting will not be a viable option, public and private organizations will need to establish partnerships that would enable them to coordinate a plan for the use of alternative communications channels, Booz Allen said in a debriefing statement.

“Governments and business organizations need to work together to improve their ability to manage a possible avian flu pandemic,” said Heather Burns, a senior vice president of Booz Allen. “The time to start preparing is now.”

In the simulation, a hypothetical pandemic originates in Eastern Europe and spreads to Germany, where it rapidly spreads through much of Europe. As a result, everyday life practically grinds to a halt, Booz Allen said in a statement.

http://appserv.gcn.com/cgi-bin/udt/im.display.printable?client.id=gcn_daily&story.id=40631

http://www.tomshardware.co.uk/2006/05/02/avian_flu_could_cripple_internet/

US to outline another part of bird flu plan​

Tue May 2, 2006 4:17 PM ET

By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Correspondent

WASHINGTON, May 2 (Reuters) - A bird flu "implementation plan" that lays out specific tasks for each U.S. federal government agency will be released on Wednesday, the White House said.

The widely leaked plan assumes the worst -- that if an influenza pandemic begins, it will certainly come to the United States and that it will be months if not years before the best defense, a vaccine, can be formulated and manufactured.

In the meantime, society will have to hunker down and let the disease run its course. The plan is meant to provide guidance on how to do this and minimize the damage.

Much in the plan has been well-characterized. The government is assuming that 40 percent of the workforce will be absent at the peak of a pandemic, and it is based on a worst-case scenario in which 1.9 million Americans die from the virus.

Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt has said it is important to prepare for the worst and then hope whatever pandemic hits is milder.

President George W. Bush announced the initial plan in November, and asked Congress for $7.1 billion to fund it. Congress has approved half that amount, but the Health and Human Services Department has expressed confidence that the rest will come when details about how it will be spent are available.

"And part of that strategy called for the creation of an implementation plan. This would really be a road map designed to take ... the principles that (Bush) outlined in his strategy, and put them into action for all federal departments and agencies," White House spokesman Scott McClellan told reporters on Tuesday.

Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy, a Democrat, ridiculed what he called the "re-release" of the plan.

"Amid great fanfare last autumn, the Bush administration released what was claimed to be a plan to fight pandemic flu. Now, we see that the original plan was inadequate and incomplete," Kennedy said in a statement. "These needless delays have put Americans at risk."

UNPRECEDENTED SPREAD

The H5N1 avian flu virus has spread out of Asia, across Europe and into many parts of Africa. It has killed or forced the culling of hundreds of millions of birds.

The World Health Organization says the virus has been found in birds in 48 countries and says it has spread to 32 countries since February, "the fastest and most extensive geographical spread" of any avian influenza virus since the family of diseases was first reported in 1878.

It does not easily infect people, but has sickened 205 people and killed 113 of them in nine countries, according to WHO.

With a few mutations it could become easily transmitted from person to person. If it did so, it would certainly spark a pandemic that could fly around the world in weeks or months, killing tens of millions even if the mutation makes it far less deadly than it is now.

And experts say H5N1 looks closer to doing this than any other new flu virus seen in the past 30 years.

Experts argue that planning for a pandemic makes sense. "Even if a pandemic does not happen soon, we will be a stronger and healthier nation," Leavitt said in a recent speech.

There is wide disagreement on how best to react to a pandemic. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Homeland Security have a written agreement on how to quarantine people at borders or on airplanes who appear to be carrying bird flu.

Yet some studies have suggested those actions would be futile. Experts at the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center argue that planning for quarantine diverts scarce resources and reduces the public trust in the government.

There are similar disagreements over whether closing schools, businesses and other public venues would do any good.

http://today.reuters.com/investing/...01742Z_01_N02296710_RTRIDST_0_BIRDFLU-USA.XML

Egypt finds 13th case of human bird flu​

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L02370826.htm

CAIRO, May 2 (Reuters) - A 27-year-old Egyptian woman is being treated in hospital for bird flu, the country's 13th human infection with the feared virus, a spokesman from the health ministry said on Tuesday.

The latest victim caught the disease after coming into contact with poultry kept in houses in her family's home town in Manoufiya province, outside of Cairo, spokesman Abdel Rahman Shaheen told the official MENA news agency.

The woman showed symptoms of the illness when she returned to her home in a Cairo suburb and was hospitalised on Monday, Shaheen added.

The woman, who was not named, was being treated in hospital with Tamiflu - the drug used to fight the virus in humans - and was in a stable condition, he said.

Four women have died of bird flu in Egypt since the first human infection was reported in mid-March. The H5N1 bird flu virus was first detected in Egypt in February.

Essentially an animal disease, the virus can infect people who come into close contact with infected birds. It has infected 205 people since late 2003, killing 113 of them.

There are fears the virus could mutate into a form that passes easily from person to person, sparking a pandemic in which millions could die.

Link to tomorrows (5/3) Bird Flu thread: http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=195956

And without a closed border once this avian flu mutates to going H2H; virtually all of Mexico / Central America / South America will literally swarm over our borders seeking / demanding medical care; which will of course over burden and already fragile and overwhelmed medical system..........

Sorry but at that point I would turn stone cold and say LEGAL AMERICAN CITIZENS FIRST.......... if there was anything left afterwards; that would go to help those who have / who can and who do, work with us and supoort us...... Which pretty much means anything we had to spare would not be going to anyone south of the border........

Sorry, but between the actions / words / deeds / actions of Fox and Chavez and all those illegal aliens protesting across the US........ I no longer feel any moral obligation to render any assistance to those who think they have a right to break our laws, flaunt our soverienty and demand that we treat them in a special and privleged manner............