04/28 | Daily BF: Fears that chicken farm's 'safe' bird flu virus could mutate

Link to yesterday's thread: http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=195175

Human Cases

Since January, 2004 WHO has reported human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) in the following countries:

* East Asia and the Pacific:
o Cambodia
o China
o Indonesia
o Thailand
o Vietnam

* Europe & Eurasia:
o Azerbaijan
(see update)
o Turkey

* Near East:
o Egypt
o Iraq

For additional information about these reports, visit the
World Health Organization Web Site.

Updated April 3, 2006

Animal Cases

Since December 2003, avian influenza A (H5N1) infections in poultry or wild birds have been reported in the following countries:

* Africa:
o Burkina Faso
o Cameroon
o Niger
o Nigeria
o Sudan

* East Asia & the Pacific:
o Cambodia
o China
o Hong Kong (SARPRC)
o Indonesia
o Japan
o Laos
o Malaysia
o Mongolia
o Myanmar (Burma)
o Thailand
o Vietnam

* South Asia:
o Afghanistan
o India
o Kazakhstan
o Pakistan

* Near East:
o Egypt
o Iraq (H5)
o Iran
o Israel
o Jordan

* Europe & Eurasia:
o Albania
o Austria
o Azerbaijan
o Bosnia & Herzegovina
o Bulgaria
o Croatia
o Czech Republic (H5)
o Denmark
o France
o Georgia
o Germany
o Greece
o Hungary
o Italy
o Poland
o Romania
o Russia
o Serbia & Montenegro
o Slovak Republic
o Slovenia
o Sweden
o Switzerland
o Turkey
o Ukraine
o United Kingdom


For additional information about these reports, visit the
World Organization for Animal Health Web Site.

Updated April 24, 2006

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/current.htm

WHO, Avian Flu Timeline in .pdf: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/timeline.pdf

H7N7 Death... in Holland

Fears that chicken farm's 'safe' bird flu virus could mutate​

By David Sapsted
(Filed: 28/04/2006)

As ministry vets prepared to gas 35,000 chickens to curb an outbreak of bird flu, a prominent virologist warned the government not to be sanguine over this supposedly "safe" strain of the disease.

Prof Albert Osterhaus, a Dutch virologist, said that the H7 strain found in the flock just outside Dereham, Norfolk, had the potential to mutate into a form just as hazardous as the H5N1 strain, which has killed more than 100 people in Asia.

He said he believed that an H7N7 outbreak in Holland in 2003 could have resulted in more fatalities had the Dutch authorities not acted swiftly to cull 30 million birds.

As it was, a Dutch vet, who was not given anti-viral drugs, died of the N7 strain after examining a flock of birds.

Dr Debby Reynolds, the chief veterinary officer, is waiting for the results of laboratory tests to learn how pathogenic the Norfolk strain of avian influenza is.

"This is most likely to be the H7 virus. It has a very low probability of infecting humans," she said in London. "Clearly, avian influenza and the H5N1 strain has generated a lot of concern and a lot of comment. There is no evidence that this is H5N1. This is most likely to be the H7 strain, which is potentially very serious for poultry."

However, Prof Osterhaus, who identified the virus behind the Sars disease, said from his research centre in Rotterdam: "You can't say the H7 virus is less dangerous than H5 until we know how pathogenic it has become. The H7 strain could become as dangerous as the H5N1 strain as it could mutate in a similar way. I do not know how highly pathogenic the strain on the Norfolk farm is. If you are lucky and it is a low pathogenic virus, culling the birds will suffice but if it is highly pathogenic any transfer of faeces on clothing, crates or even the wheels or vehicles will need to be traced.

"After the avian flu on the Dutch farm, we did screenings of wild birds and found the ancestors of the H7 virus in wild mallards. They carried a low pathogenic virus but when it got into flocks of poultry it was able to replicate and mutated quickly. It eventually became deadly. It does not mutate in wild birds so quickly because they do not live in such large flocks."

The chickens at Witford Lodge Farm in North Tuddenham, near Dereham, are expected to be gassed and then incinerated on the premises today.

Dennis Foreman, a director of Banham Poultry Ltd, which owns the farm, said that the number of chickens to have died from bird flu was "minimal".

"As a company we don't want this but, at the end of the day, it happened and we have got to deal with it professionally," he said. A one kilometre exclusion zone has been imposed around the farm, which is used to produce eggs for hatching elsewhere.

The infected chickens were brought from France in February. Dr Reynolds said there was a three-week incubation period of the virus and it was probable that the hens became infected after they arrived in Britain

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&xml=/news/2006/04/28/nflu28.xml

Macedonia

Macedonian man suspected of contracting bird flu dies​

A Macedonian man who was suspected of having contracted the bird flu virus died of organ failure on Thursday, but tests on him proved negative, news reports reaching in Tirana quoted a Macedonian hospital official as saying.

"All the tests carried out showed that he didn't have the avian flu virus," Zvonko Milenkovic, head of the infectious diseases ward at Skopje hospital, was quoted as saying.

"He died of organ failure," he added.

The man, who was from the town of Strumica in southeastern Macedonia, had been tested for bird flu virus infection because he had kept pigeons, reports said.

He showed the symptoms of pneumonia and had a high fever when he was admitted to the hospital on Wednesday, Milenkovic said.

So far, no confirmed case of bird flu has been reported in wild fowl or domestic birds in Macedonia, although all its neighboring countries have been hit by the lethal strain of the H5N1 avian flu.

Source: Xinhua

Suspected bird flu patient’s samples sent to NIH​

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2006\04\28\story_28-4-2006_pg7_41

Staff Report

PESHAWAR: Blood samples from a suspected bird-flu patient were sent to the National Institute of Health (NIH) on Thursday, said doctors.

Thirteen-year-old Umar Said was admitted to the Khyber Teaching Hospital’s medical ward early on Wednesday morning and later shifted to the isolation room on suspicion of contracting bird-flu. “Doctors have asked the administration to collect nasal and oral cavity swabs from the patient for laboratory analysis,” a doctor told Daily Times on condition of anonymity. He said that specially trained persons collected swabs from patients suspected of having bird-flu and the results would be made available within a few days. The patient still has high temperature and doctors have requested the administration to arrange for Tamiflu shots, he said. “We are not giving the patient Tamiflu at the moment, but want to give it as a precaution,” he added.

Umar will be the first human to be hit by the H5N1 virus in Pakistan if the tests come back positive. He has reportedly not eaten anything for the past five days because of high temperature.

A 'dirty boot' was enough to breach bird flu defences​

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,25149-2155309,00.html

By Valerie Elliott, Countryside Editor

INFECTED faeces from a wild bird carried into a chicken shed on a workman’s boot are thought to be the most likely source of a bird flu outbreak on a farm in Norfolk.

Such a breach in biosecurity will be of major concern to Britain’s £3 billion-a-year poultry industry, which prides itself on the strict hygiene, cleansing and disinfecting standards observed on commercial farms.

Early indications were that the virus is probably the less virulent, low-pathogenic strain of the H7 flu which can devastate birds but is generally not a threat to human beings.

However, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said that confirmation of the precise strain and virulence of the virus would be delayed until today.

The bird flu case, at a farm at North Tuddenham, is the first in a British commercial unit since the deadly form of avian flu, the H5N1 virus, arrived in Europe. Poultry industry and tourism chiefs admitted that they were “extremely nervous” that the highly virulent H7 strain had arrived in the county. It could effectively close down many villages.

Poultry is worth £1 billion a year to Norfolk and 40,000 jobs depend on the industry. Free range farmers in the county immediately locked up their birds to protect them from the disease threat.

State vets and epidemiologists were urgently tracing possible sources of contamination at Witford Lodge Farm, one of 30 units in Norfolk run by Banham Poultry UK. A 1km surveillance zone was set up around the infected farm and movement restrictions were in place on all other premises operated by Banham.

Sources at the company said that the most likely reason for contamination was wild bird faeces picked up outdoors and carried into a chicken house on foot. A cull of 35,000 chickens on the farm will begin early today. All the birds will be humanely despatched. Each will be caught, stunned, then placed in a chamber where carbon monoxide will gas them.

The birds were breeding stock and not destined for the dinner table. Banhams is expected to claim as much as £100,000 in compensation for the cull. A Banhams spokesman insisted last night that staff followed the strictest possible bio-security rules. Birds and eggs were transported in company vehicles. Only two or three men worked on the infected farm.

Norfolk accounts for a third of British poultry production and farmers voiced their fears about the knock-on effects of the bird flu virus yesterday.

Mark Gorton, director of Traditional Norfolk Poultry, which has eighteen organic chicken and turkey farms, two of which are near Witford Lodge, said: “We are worried about it as it devastated the Dutch industry. We are keeping our fingers crossed it’s not going to spread.”

He said that the real worry was where the virus had come from. “The birds are inside so it can’t have been from a wild bird and if it was from a vehicle, where did the vehicle come from and where has it gone? “The poultry industry is a huge industry here, with an enormous amount of local suppliers and distributors. The knock-on effects would be very serious but we’re hoping that we’ll come out the other side.”

Paul Leveridge, who keeps about 15,000 ducks on a farm about two miles away in Mattishall, said: “Every poultry farmer is worried, especially as this is now in Norfolk, the heart of the poultry industry.”

The H7 flu virus has been found in chickens in northern Italy since 1999, but the last outbreak in the UK was in 1998 on a turkey farm in Northern Ireland.

Nigel Joice, the eastern region representative of the National Farmers’ Union poultry committee, said that while members were concerned they were not in a panic. Mr Joice, who runs a poultry farm in Fakenham, said that they were more worried that people would stop eating poultry than the outbreak. He said: “It’s not great, unfortunately. People associate it with a pandemic.”

Mr Joice said that the East Anglian industry was different from that in the Netherlands, where an outbreak of H7 strain of the virus wiped out a third of poultry and cost millions of euros in 2003. “We’ve learnt a lot of lessons since then and the Dutch poultry industry is a lot more densely populated than ours.”

http://reuters.myway.com/article/20...DST_0_NEWS-BIRDFLU-TELECOMMUNICATIONS-DC.html

Panic could overwhelm communications in a pandemic

Apr 27, 4:28 PM (ET)



By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Telephone and Internet services could be overwhelmed and shut down in the early stages of a bird flu pandemic as people panic and try to work from home, according to a report released on Thursday.

Businesses need to think of other ways to keep going as governments close schools and direct people to stay home, management consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton reported.
[/B]
The company issued the report based on a exercise conducted at the World Economic Forum in January, involving 30 chief executive officers of companies, government ministers, and senior officials of the United Nations.

The scenario assumed a pandemic was already underway in Germany and the participants thought through the consequences.

What they found matched with what other experts have predicted -- large numbers of people will stay home from work, either because they are sick, caring for family members, because schools are closed or simply because they are afraid.

And many may presume that they can telecommute -- perhaps too many, the officials and business leaders agreed.

"Telecommunications (phone and Internet) will likely be overwhelmed early in a pandemic, with experts predicting shut-downs in two to four days, meaning that telecommuting will not be viable and alternative communications need to be explored," the report read.

"Governments will likely direct the general population to stay in their homes, and minimize social contact," it added.

"Alternate facilities, such as schools and churches will need to become hospitals with the recovered filling vacant essential jobs. This will require individuals to receive a minimal level of training to perform critical functions."

The H5N1 avian influenza has spread to more than 40 countries, from Asia into Europe and across parts of Africa. Experts predict it will become permanently established in the world's bird population.

HUMANS RARELY INFECTED

It rarely infects humans, but has made 204 people ill, killing 113 of them. If the virus mutated so that it could pass easily from person to person, it would set off a global pandemic that would infect hundreds of millions. Depending on its virulence, it could kill tens of millions of people.

Businesses and government should start making clear their priorities now for essential services and personnel, the report said. They should list who should get scarce antiviral drugs and vaccines first.

The report also raised several critical questions:

"If you expect everyone to stay at home, how do they get healthcare such as antivirals? What happens when counterfeit Tamiflu and masks hit the black market?"

Tamiflu, known generically as oseltamivir, is one of only two drugs that can treat influenza, if taken early enough after infection. Manufacturer Roche AG cannot make the pills fast enough to fill demand for government stockpiles.

The report also asked who would pay for the extra healthcare needed, especially for first responders.

It said businesses should look to ways to preserve their capital as markets panic, perhaps by moving to gold.

Business leaders said their first priority would be the protection of their employees and families. They said companies may need provide essential employees with food and care.

They would then have to decide which nonessential operations to shut down for the duration of the pandemic, which could last for more than a year, and how to retrain healthy employees to fill needed posts.

Indonesia tests show man died of bird flu in latest case ​

http://www.forbes.com/finance/feeds/afx/2006/04/28/afx2705461.html

04.28.2006, 05:23 AM

JAKARTA (AFX) - A 30-year-old Indonesian man who died earlier this week was infected with bird flu, a health official said, citing results from local tests.

The man, a resident of Jakarta's satellite town of Tangerang, died Wednesday at the city's main hospital for the treatment of bird flu patients after five days of intensive care, said health ministry official Hariyadi Wibisono.

'He had a history of contact with sick poultry. The results of his local tests came in today,' Wibisono told Agence France-Presse.

'We have sent them to the World Health Organization (WHO)-accredited laboratory in Hong Kong for further confirmation,' he said.

If confirmed, the man would be Indonesia's 25th bird flu fatality.

Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous nation, has witnessed more bird flu deaths than any other country this year and has the second highest number of fatalities reported in the world since 2003, after Vietnam.

Most cases in Indonesia have been in the capital and its surroundings, where many people live in close proximity to poultry despite the urban environment, but infections have been found in birds in 26 of Indonesia's 33 provinces.

Cautious eyes on avian flu
Expected in Canada within three months

Thursday April 27, 2006


Patrick Brennan

By Patrick Brennan
Times-Journal Staff

The warning to health officials was clear Wednesday to those attending a seminar at St. Thomas-Elgin General Hospital -- avian flu is likely to begin affecting Canada within three months and, when it hits, at least one-third of the population is expected to be ill.

That was the message from Dr. Susan Tamblyn, one of Canada's leading experts on infectious diseases. She was one of two speakers at a seminar sponsored by the Elgin-St. Thomas Health Unit.

Avian flu, described as a pandemic strain because it migrates around the world, is proving to be a stubborn flu for the health community to attack.

Half of those who are sick will need medical care and one per cent of those cases (55 people in a city the size of St. Thomas) will require hospitalization, she said.
"We're going to see it in Canada within the next three months," Tamblyn predicted. Increased air travel with people travelling routinely around the world increases the chance of this occurring, she said.

Birds carrying the disease are the most common threat. But one worry is that the number of host species spreading the disease has expanded to include mammals, including cats.

Poultry, already slaughtered in record numbers in other countries to try to stop the spread of the disease, are potentially at risk.

"When something like this affects birds, there are questions from veterinarians and farmers," she said.

Avian flu could spread between people by coughing and sneezing, like other strains. Contaminated hands could also be an issue and one small area that will get special emphasis when the health unit issues advice is safe disposal of used tissues.

The potential effect on local and regional economies from people being home sick is serious, and Tamblyn suggested school closures might be necessary.
Canada mapped out a plan in 2004 to deal with the crisis and it is already set to be updated.

While the strategy is to vaccinate all Canadians, it will take four to six months to get enough vaccine.

Scott Davis, pandemic planner for the Elgin-St. Thomas Health Unit, said an Elgin-St. Thomas advisory group has been formed. Some of the members include Ministry of Health representatives, emergency service representatives and local doctors.

Officials were meeting with local doctors Wednesday evening.

As for an historical reference, there have been pandemics reported in 1918, 1957 and 1968.

If a pandemic hits Elgin-St. Thomas hard, there could be logistical problems. An influx would potentially occupy 48 per cent of the St. Thomas-Elgin General Hospital's general bed capacity and an alarming 151 per cent of the beds in intensive care.

Davis warned some of the medical supplies needed for a crisis might be held up at the Canada/U.S. border.

Comparisons between the avian bird flu and SARS are popular, but not accurate, Tamblyn said "SARS was a hospital disease," she said. "Influenza is a community disease. It's out there."

http://www.stthomastimesjournal.com/story.php?id=227231

Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza A/(H5N1) Reported to WHO

27 April 2006


http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2006_04_27/en/index.html

UN official fears reach of avian flu
Virus seems to be spreading rapidly

By Edith M. Lederer
Associated Press
Published April 27, 2006


NEW YORK -- Bird flu has hit 45 countries, killed more than 100 people and seems to be spreading quickly, the UN official in charge of tracking the virus said Wednesday.

Dr. David Nabarro said the virus has led to the deaths of about 200 million birds and has impoverished millions of small poultry farmers.

Between 2003 and 2005 the virus was reported in 15 countries. But in the first four months of this year it has moved rapidly to 30 new countries, with major outbreaks in Turkey, Iraq, Israel, the Gaza Strip, Egypt, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Myanmar, India, Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon and Burkina Faso.

"I suspect we're going to see further spread of H5N1 into other countries," he said, referring to the deadly and virulent strain of the virus.

"This is very similar to the virus that caused the influenza pandemic of 1918," he said. "It's not identical but it's similar. . . . So therefore, the 1918 virus, which caused this huge pandemic associated with 40 million deaths, seems to have a successor waiting in the wings."

Nabarro, the UN's chief coordinator for avian influenza, spoke at a meeting organized by the United Nations Foundation on how to inform people around the world of the bird flu threat.

He said the H5N1 virus is known to have stricken more than 200 people but it probably has affected "many, many more."

"And this virus has led to the deaths of 200 million birds--around $20 billion worth of consequences for the countries affected--and this led to the impoverishment of millions of small holders whose livelihoods depend on poultry," he said.

"The poultry industry is in a terrible state because of a drop in demand and also real problems of import and export controls," he added.

Even worse, Nabarro said, the virus has spread to wild birds, including Muscovy ducks and certain kinds of geese that can carry it long distances without any symptoms. These wild birds are spreading H5N1, he said.

Experts fear the virus will mutate into a form easily transmitted among human beings.

"It could be the cause of the next human pandemic," he said.

Nabarro said he is working with the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Organization for Animal Health to improve veterinary services.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/...ll=chi-newsnationworld-hed&ctrack=1&cset=true

Bill P: This sure looks like a long shot in more than one way. Small company operating on a shoe string that has had recent clinical setbacks due to quality/efficacy in late stages of development. I suppose if the approval process is rushed there could be increased unintended consequences. Maybe several years lead time for an H5N1 vax is true???


Nabi touts its Boca plant for manufacturing bird flu vaccine

By Glenn Singer
South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Posted April 27 2006

Nabi Biopharmaceuticals' manufacturing plant in Boca Raton could be modified to produce a vaccine to protect against avian flu should such a vaccine be developed elsewhere, the company's top science officer said Wednesday.

"If the opportunity comes, we can manufacture an avian vaccine with some modifications" to the plant, Raafad Fahim, senior vice president for research, technical and production operations, told analysts during a conference call to discuss first-quarter financial results.

The plant is geared toward making vaccines to combat bacterial infections, but with additional equipment and investment, it could be modified to produce vaccines to fight viruses including the avian flu H5N1 strain. Such a vaccine is probably several years away, Fahim said.

His comments came after Nabi announced earlier in the day that it signed an agreement with French-based Sanofi Pasteur to help produce Imogam Rabies HT, a vaccine made from human plasma that is given immediately to people exposed to the rabies virus.

Sanofi Pasteur, part of the Sanofi-Aventis Group, also is investigating the safety of a vaccine against avian influenza under funding from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Terms of the rabies vaccine deal were not disclosed, but Nabi spokesman Thomas Rathjen said it is "an exclusive agreement for this product" and that the anticipated revenue is "not insignificant."

Under the deal, Nabi will separate components of plasma containing antibodies to the rabies virus and ship the partially manufactured product to Sanofi Pasteur for completion of production at its plant in Lyon, France. A typical dose for a 100-pound person retails for about $1,200.

Nabi needs to rely on the cash flow from contract manufacturing to continue developing its own products, including a vaccine to prevent staphylococcus aureus infections and another to help smokers quit the habit.

The company suffered a major setback late last year when its StaphVAX failed in a late-stage clinical trial, resulting in unused capacity at its plant. Nabi hopes to continue developing an improved version with a partner.

On Wednesday after the close of trading, the company reported it had $51.4 million in cash and cash equivalents on April 1 to carry on research and development. That is down from $101.8 million at the end of 2005.

For the first quarter of this year, Nabi lost $18.1 million, or 30 cents a share. That compares with a loss of $15.8 million, or 27 cents a share, in the same period a year ago.

Nabi shares ended the day at $6.25, down 14 cents.


http://www.sun-sentinel.com/busines...,0,1908761.story?coll=sfla-business-headlines

http://www.dailytelegraph.news.com.au/story/0,20281,18955965-5001028,00.htm


Panic 'could overwhelm' in pandemic

From correspondents in Washington

April 28, 2006

TELEPHONE and Internet services could be overwhelmed and shut down in the early stages of a bird flu pandemic as people panic and try to work from home, according to a report released today.

Businesses need to think of other ways to keep going as governments close schools and direct people to stay home, US management consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton reported.

The company issued the report based on an exercise conducted at the World Economic Forum in January, involving 30 chief executive officers of companies, government ministers, and senior officials of the United Nations.

The scenario assumed a pandemic was already underway in Germany and the participants thought through the consequences.

What they found matched with what other experts have predicted - large numbers of people will stay home from work, either because they are sick, caring for family members, because schools are closed or simply because they are afraid.

And many may presume that they can telecommute - perhaps too many, the officials and business leaders agreed.

"Telecommunications (phone and internet) will likely be overwhelmed early in a pandemic, with experts predicting shut-downs in two to four days, meaning that telecommuting will not be viable and alternative communications need to be explored," the report read.

"Governments will likely direct the general population to stay in their homes, and minimise social contact," it said.

"Alternate facilities, such as schools and churches will need to become hospitals with the recovered filling vacant essential jobs. This will require individuals to receive a minimal level of training to perform critical functions."

The H5N1 avian influenza has spread to more than 40 countries, from Asia into Europe and across parts of Africa.

Experts predict it will become permanently established in the world's bird population.

It rarely infects humans, but has made 204 people ill, killing 113 of them. If the virus mutated so that it could pass easily from person to person, it would set off a global pandemic that would infect hundreds of millions. Depending on its virulence, it could kill tens of millions of people.

Businesses and government should start making clear their priorities now for essential services and personnel, the report said. They should list who should get scarce antiviral drugs and vaccines first.

The report also raised several critical questions: "If you expect everyone to stay at home, how do they get healthcare such as antivirals? What happens when counterfeit Tamiflu and masks hit the black market?"

Tamiflu, known generically as oseltamivir, is one of only two drugs that can treat influenza, if taken early enough after infection. Manufacturer Roche AG cannot make the pills fast enough to fill demand for government stockpiles.

The report also asked who would pay for the extra healthcare needed, especially for first responders.

It said businesses should look to ways to preserve their capital as markets panic, perhaps by moving to gold.

Business leaders said their first priority would be the protection of their employees and families. They said companies may need provide essential employees with food and care.

They would then have to decide which nonessential operations to shut down for the duration of the pandemic, which could last for more than a year, and how to retrain healthy employees to fill needed posts.

http://www.politicalgateway.com/news/read/9966


Masks not top flu fighter



WASHINGTON, April 28 (UPI) -- As the discussion over a bird flu pandemic increases, U.S. health experts say surgical masks and similar devices will be of little help.

The 12-member panel issued a report Thursday, requested by the Department of Health and Human Services, the Washington Post reports.

It a telephone press conference, panel member Dr. John C. Bailar said, "I would not recommend that anyone using a mask think that is adequate protection."

He said masks are part of an overall response to a flu pandemic, which includes vaccines, placing patients in quarantine and shutting down open places like schools.

The various types of masks may be helpful in preventing sick people from breathing the virus into the air and healthy people from inhaling it.

Options include the general surgical masks, made of a cloth-like material covering the nose and mouth with straps that go around the head.

Then there are more advanced, form-fitting respirators that are better filters but cost much more.

Health experts fear the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu that has killed more than 100 people and millions of birds in Asia, Europe, Africa and the Middle East will mutate into one more easily spread among humans.

http://www.coloradoan.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060428/NEWS01/604280347/1002


Report: Face masks shouldn't be reused
Some predict shortage in event of flu pandemic; agency says reliable decontamination is lacking
By KEVIN DARST
KevinDarst@coloradoan.com

Reusing disposable face masks to stretch short supplies during a flu pandemic isn't a good idea, according to a report issued Thursday.

N95 respirator masks - inexpensive masks used by hospitals and health care providers that can also be purchased at pharmacies and other retailers - are considered one possible way to slow the spread of a flu pandemic.


But some predict a shortage of the masks if a pandemic arrives soon, which prompted the federal government to ask the Institute of Medicine, part of the National Academy of Sciences, whether the masks could be used again.

In its Thursday report, the Institute of Medicine, or IOM, said certain steps could protect a reused mask against contamination but recommended against that, especially because it's unclear whether face coverings of any kind protect against the flu.

"After considering all the testimony and other information we received, the committee concluded that there is currently no simple, reliable way to decontaminate these devices and enable people to use them safely more than once," said Dr. John Bailar, a professor emeritus at the University of Chicago and a co-chairman of the committee that wrote the report.

A bigger issue might be whether new masks are effective at curbing flu transmission and whether the general public can correctly use them, said Dr. Adrienne LeBailly, director of the Larimer County Department of Health and Environment. Health care workers are supposed to be "fit tested" so the masks work properly, LeBailly said.

"My guess is that most people in the general public won't be fit tested," LeBailly said.

Social distancing - staying home or staying away from large groups of people - would be a better precaution than a mask, LeBailly said.

Butler's Lemay Pharmacy, 1009 S. Lemay Ave., has been selling more masks than usual since talk intensified about a pandemic from avian flu, said Katie Kraus, the pharmacy's Medicare biller.

"I've also had quite a few (people) getting them because they're going overseas" and are worried about the bird flu, Kraus said.

Poudre Valley Hospital is talking about stockpiling masks and other items for a possible pandemic, spokesman Gary Kimsey said. PVH usually keeps about 1,400 masks on hand.

"We're such a just-in-time economy, and the hospital industry is just like this," Kimsey said. "We order enough for the very immediate future. A lot of it has to do with space and budget issues. Almost every hospital in the nation is like that."

But having enough masks will be vital if hospitals want their own workers showing up to treat the sick.

"If I expect them to come to work, I've got to protect them," said Paul Poduska, PVH's infection control coordinator.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/conditions/04/26/preventing.pandemic.ap/index.html


Study: U.S. couldn't slow flu pandemic

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A mostly unprepared United States could do little to slow pandemic flu if it hits anytime soon, according to a new computer model.

And Britain is only a bit better off, the same study suggests.

If the U.S. government does nothing, a deadly global flu outbreak is likely to strike a third of the population, according to the results of a computer simulation published in Thursday's journal Nature.

If government acts fast enough and has enough antiviral medicine to use as a preventive -- and the United States doesn't right now -- the number could drop to about 28 percent of the population, the study found.

"Both cases we came up with were very pessimistic," said lead author Neil Ferguson of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College in London. "There is no single magic bullet for stopping pandemic flu."

So far this year H5N1 bird flu -- which doesn't move easily from person to person -- has infected 204 people and killed 113, according to the World Health Organization. Most of the human cases and deaths have been in Asia, but birds with the disease have hit Europe.

Combining use of the antiviral Tamiflu with school closings could reduce the disease's toll a bit, Ferguson said. But efforts to stop flu from entering U.S. borders -- usually on planes with sick passengers -- won't work, he said. At most, such efforts can buy a couple of weeks' delay before the disease sets in, he said.

Ferguson's computer simulation is the second released this month and is more pessimistic than an earlier study led by Timothy Germann, a Los Alamos National Laboratory scientist. He said the flu could be less infectious and that efforts could slow it a bit.

Even Germann, who said no one knows which study is closer to reality, isn't that optimistic.

"It would have to be a very weak pandemic strain for us to be able to stop it right now," he said in an interview this week. "Most likely we wouldn't be completely prepared."

If the United States were like Britain and had enough preventive drugs for one-quarter of the population, computer models show that the number of people getting sick would drop from about 102 million to about 84 million in America, Ferguson said.

However, right now the United States has only enough medicine on hand for about 5 million people, or about 1.7 percent of the population, according to the Department of Health and Human Services.

HHS Spokesman Bill Hall said the agency has ordered enough drugs for another 23 million people, and those should arrive by the end of the year. The plan is to have enough medicine for about a quarter of the population by 2008.

"Twenty-five percent doesn't go very far, and we don't have anywhere near that," said study co-author Donald Burke, professor of international health and epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University's School of Public Health. "If it does occur before we have enough drug and enough vaccine, then the epidemic will have a substantial impact."

If a country gets enough Tamiflu for half its population, it could then act aggressively in dosing families of flu-struck patients, and that could cut the flu attack rate by 75 percent, Ferguson said. So instead of 102 million infected Americans, it would be 33 million.

"France could do this now; this is highlighting the gap between U.S. and Europe," Ferguson said.

http://www.westpress.co.uk.cob-web....Node=146064&contentPK=14402304&folderPk=69655


SPEED IS KEY TO DEFEAT BIRD FLU


09:35 - 28 April 2006
A 'double whammy' of measures must be implemented by world governments if the bird flu virus mutates into a human form, scientists have warned. Experts in Britain and the US, who carried out simulations of the spread of such an outbreak, believe there must be an immediate programme of rapid treatment and isolation of infected humans, as well as anyone living within the same household.

A study, published in the science journal Nature, added governments must stockpile sufficient anti-viral drugs for at least 50 per cent of their population - twice the number many countries are planning.

And the report's authors, Neil Ferguson, of imperial College, London, and Derek Cummings, of Johns Hopkins University in Maryland, USA, warned anti-viral drugs must be administered within 24 hours of people falling ill.

UK Government proposals suggest this should be done within 48 hours.

The report was published just hours before it emerged Britain had been hit by a second case of bird flu.

About 35,000 chickens at a poultry farm in Norfolk are to be slaughtered after it was confirmed yesterday that dead birds had tested positive for a strain of bird flu.

The dead chickens were found on Witford Lodge Farm in Hockering, about 13 miles west of Norwich.

The Government's chief vet said it was likely to be the H7 strain, virulent among chickens but less of a threat to humans than the H5N1 variant.

Last month a swan in Cellardyke, Fife, tested positive for H5N1 - the only confirmed case of that strain in the UK so far.

In the Nature report, Professor Ferguson said he believed the UK is on track in terms of stockpiling anti-viral drugs but more emphasis was needed on how to deliver the treatment.

His research includes the use of the first computer simulation of how the flu virus would spread across the country.

The simulation found that a flu pandemic would peak within two months of it arriving in the UK, killing thousands. But the worst of the pandemic would be over within four months, Professor Ferguson added.

It was the experts' computer simulation that showed that the spread of the virus could be reduced if infected people were treated within a day of symptoms first appearing. This strategy for tackling an outbreak of pandemic flu is known as household prophylaxis.

Sir Liam Donaldson, the Government's chief medical officer, said Britain's pandemic contingency plans in the event of a pandemic were based on expert advice from a number of sources, including Professor Ferguson. He said: "We will continue to work with Professor Ferguson to explore the other options to protect the public."

Bill P said:

Cautious eyes on avian flu
Expected in Canada within three months

Thursday April 27, 2006


Patrick Brennan

By Patrick Brennan
Times-Journal Staff

The warning to health officials was clear Wednesday to those attending a seminar at St. Thomas-Elgin General Hospital -- avian flu is likely to begin affecting Canada within three months and, when it hits, at least one-third of the population is expected to be ill.

That was the message from Dr. Susan Tamblyn, one of Canada's leading experts on infectious diseases. She was one of two speakers at a seminar sponsored by the Elgin-St. Thomas Health Unit.

Avian flu, described as a pandemic strain because it migrates around the world, is proving to be a stubborn flu for the health community to attack.

Half of those who are sick will need medical care and one per cent of those cases (55 people in a city the size of St. Thomas) will require hospitalization, she said.
"We're going to see it in Canada within the next three months," Tamblyn predicted. Increased air travel with people travelling routinely around the world increases the chance of this occurring, she said.

Birds carrying the disease are the most common threat. But one worry is that the number of host species spreading the disease has expanded to include mammals, including cats.

Poultry, already slaughtered in record numbers in other countries to try to stop the spread of the disease, are potentially at risk.

"When something like this affects birds, there are questions from veterinarians and farmers," she said.

Avian flu could spread between people by coughing and sneezing, like other strains. Contaminated hands could also be an issue and one small area that will get special emphasis when the health unit issues advice is safe disposal of used tissues.

The potential effect on local and regional economies from people being home sick is serious, and Tamblyn suggested school closures might be necessary.
Canada mapped out a plan in 2004 to deal with the crisis and it is already set to be updated.

While the strategy is to vaccinate all Canadians, it will take four to six months to get enough vaccine.

Scott Davis, pandemic planner for the Elgin-St. Thomas Health Unit, said an Elgin-St. Thomas advisory group has been formed. Some of the members include Ministry of Health representatives, emergency service representatives and local doctors.

Officials were meeting with local doctors Wednesday evening.

As for an historical reference, there have been pandemics reported in 1918, 1957 and 1968.

If a pandemic hits Elgin-St. Thomas hard, there could be logistical problems. An influx would potentially occupy 48 per cent of the St. Thomas-Elgin General Hospital's general bed capacity and an alarming 151 per cent of the beds in intensive care.

Davis warned some of the medical supplies needed for a crisis might be held up at the Canada/U.S. border.

Comparisons between the avian bird flu and SARS are popular, but not accurate, Tamblyn said "SARS was a hospital disease," she said. "Influenza is a community disease. It's out there."

http://www.stthomastimesjournal.com/story.php?id=227231

Click to expand...

"The warning to health officials was clear Wednesday to those attending a seminar at St. Thomas-Elgin General Hospital -- avian flu is likely to begin affecting Canada within three months and, when it hits, at least one-third of the population is expected to be ill."


Are they talkiing about the bird flu virus in Canada in three months or the actual pandemic/human cases ?? If the latter, than this is the first time I've seen this reported this way........

G-8 Health Ministers Meet in Moscow ​

By VOA News
28 April 2006

Health ministers from the Group of Eight nations have met in Moscow to discuss global cooperation in fighting infectious diseases such as bird flu and AIDS.

The meeting comes ahead of the G-8 summit that Russia will host in July, where health issues are expected to be high on the agenda.

The G-8 consists of the world's seven leading industrialized nations, plus Russia.

Some information for this report was provided by AFP and AP.

http://www.voanews.com/english/2006-04-28-voa22.cfm

New Freedom,

Thats the way I read the artiicle - human cases in Canada in 3 months - August.

Link to tomorrows (4/29) Bird Flu thread: http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=195482