04/17 | Daily BirdFlu Thread: Bush expected to approve dramatic pandemic flu response

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
Link to yesterday's thread: http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=193609

Human Cases

Since January, 2004 WHO has reported human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) in the following countries:

* East Asia and the Pacific:
o Cambodia
o China
o Indonesia
o Thailand
o Vietnam

* Europe & Eurasia:
o Azerbaijan
(see update)
o Turkey

* Near East:
o Egypt
o Iraq

For additional information about these reports, visit the
World Health Organization Web Site.

Updated April 3, 2006

Animal Cases

Since December 2003, avian influenza A (H5N1) infections in poultry or wild birds have been reported in the following countries:

* Africa:
o Burkina Faso
o Cameroon
o Niger
o Nigeria

* East Asia & the Pacific:
o Cambodia
o China
o Hong Kong (SARPRC)
o Indonesia
o Japan
o Laos
o Malaysia
o Mongolia
o Myanmar (Burma)
o Thailand
o Vietnam

* South Asia:
o Afghanistan
o India
o Kazakhstan
o Pakistan

* Near East:
o Egypt
o Iraq (H5)
o Iran
o Israel
o Jordan

* Europe & Eurasia:
o
* Albania
* Austria
* Azerbaijan
* Bosnia & Herzegovina
* Bulgaria
* Croatia
* Czech Republic (H5)
* Denmark
* France
* Georgia
* Germany
* Greece
* Hungary
* Italy
* Poland
* Romania
* Russia
* Serbia & Montenegro
* Slovak Republic
* Slovenia
* Sweden
* Switzerland
* Turkey
* Ukraine
* United Kingdom


For additional information about these reports, visit the
World Organization for Animal Health Web Site: http://www.oie.int/eng/en_index.htm

Updated April 7, 2006

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/current.htm

WHO, Avian Flu Timeline in .pdf: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/timeline.pdf

:vik:
 

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
Chinese View of Bush's pandemic flu response plan

The Bird Flu news this weekend has been dominated by talk about Bush's new pandemic flu prep plan... it seemed appropriate to start the monday thread with as overseas view and an domestic view...

Bush expected to approve dramatic pandemic flu response plan

www.chinaview.cn 2006-04-17 09:21:03

BEIJING, April 17 (Xinhuanet) -- U.S. President George W. Bush is expected to approve within days a national pandemic influenza response plan under which the government would expand the Internet and possibly permit foreign countries to print U.S. currency during a flu pandemic.

Washington Post reported on Sunday that the document is the first to spell out how the U.S. government would detect and respond to a flu outbreak and continue to function through what could be an 18-month crisis capable of killing up to 1.9 million Americans.

The U.S. Treasury Department is poised to sign agreements with other nations to produce currency if U.S. mints cannot operate, according to the report. The Pentagon is considering stockpiling millions of latex gloves and the Department of Veterans Affairs has developed a drive-through medical exam to quickly assess patients who suspect they have been infected.

The 240-page response plan identifies more than 300 specific tasks for federal agencies, including determining which frontline workers should be vaccinated first and expanding the Internet to accommodate a likely flood of people working from their home computers, according to the newspaper.

Bush was briefed on a draft of the plan on March 17. He is expected to approve the plan within the week, but it continues to evolve, said several administration officials who have been working on it.

The White House is eager to show it can manage the medical, security and economic fallout from a major outbreak following its widely criticized response to Hurricane Katrina,
the Post said.

Concern about a possible pandemic has grown with the emergence of the H5N1 avian flu, the most dangerous strain in decades. Enditem

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-04/17/content_4433336.htm

:vik:
 

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
US View of Bush's pandemic flu response plan

The Bird Flu news this weekend has been dominated by talk about Bush's new pandemic flu prep plan... it seemed appropriate to start the monday thread with as overseas view and an domestic view...

U.S. Prepares Bird-Flu Plan for Approval

By NEDRA PICKLER, Associated Press Writer
2 hours, 50 minutes ago

In the event of a bird flu outbreak, U.S. money could be produced overseas and Americans checked in drive-through medical exams for signs of infection, according to government plans being finalized.

Federal officials say the first case of bird flu could show up in the United States in the coming weeks or months as birds migrate from overseas. President Bush is expected to approve a national response plan in the next week or two laying out how agencies should respond if it were transmitted to humans.

The plan assumes a worst-case scenario that as many as 90 million people in the U.S. would become sick and 2 million would die during a worldwide flu pandemic.

It envisions people may need to avoid human contact and stay home from work, school and other large gathering places, according to officials familiar with draft. Some details of the draft, first in Sunday's Washington Post, (http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=193609 post #8, thanks Wowser) were confirmed by officials at the White House who spoke anonymously because the plan has not been finalized.

Dr. Bruce Gellin, director of the National Vaccine Program Office at the Health and Human Services Department, said the report builds on the strategy that Bush outlined six months ago — new flu-vaccine technology and greater stockpiles of vaccines and antivirals.

The government had focused on health issues in that earlier report, but a pandemic would affect every aspect of government, Gellin said.

The response plan, assembled by the president's Homeland Security Council, lays out who should be the first vaccinated, proposes that other countries make U.S. money if domestic locations cannot operate. The plan anticipates that employees could strain Internet capacity while working from home computers.

The U.S. has had such money agreements with allies in the past in case of emergency, a White House official said, but there is no current arrangement. Congress approval would be needed for a new deal.


The Veterans Affairs Department has developed a medical exam that could be conducted in VA hospital parking lots, with those who suspect they may be infected able to get a quick exam. The program is modeled after a drive-through flu vaccination program conducted last year.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the National Institutes of Health's infectious disease chief, said in an interview with The Associated Press last week that scientists are debating whether to vaccinate first those most likely to spread the virus, rather than those traditionally first in line for winter flu shots, including the very old, very young and chronically ill. That policy still is under debate, he said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060416/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bird_flu

:vik:
 

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
Pakistan

Pakistan confirms H5N1 bird flu outbreak near Islamabad

Officials in Pakistan on Sunday confirmed the second outbreak of deadly H5N1 bird flu strain at a poultry farm near the capital Islamabad.

"During the on-going surveillance for Avian Influenza, a suspect outbreak was reported at a small poultry farm in Sihala, some 25 kilometers from Islamabad on April 14," Livestock and Animal Husbandry Commissioner Dr. Muhammad Afzal said.

"Clinically the disease was suggested as Avian Influenza," Afzal said.

He said immediately after the report that samples were taken for test while the whole flock of 3,500 layer pullets was destroyed with the cooperation of the owner, the Pakistan Poultry Association and government agencies as a precaution to curtail any chances of its further spread.

Afzal said that following the laboratory test reports showing the presence of Avian Influenza H5NI, the surveillance zone of 3 km around the infected farm had been declared in which all farms are being sampled for monitoring.

Avian Influenza is primarily a poultry disease and as per guidelines issued by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO), the public is assured that cooked poultry meat and eggs are safe for consumption and there should not be any undue concern in this regard, he added.

The commissioner said: "We urge all poultry farmers to increase the level of bio-security at their farms and immediately report any abnormal or high mortality to local veterinarian or district livestock/poultry development officer for immediate diagnosis."

Late last month, the World Reference Laboratory for Avian Influenza at Weybridge, England confirmed the presence of avian influenza H5NI virus at two farms in Charsada and Abbotabad in Pakistan's North West Frontier Province (NWFP).

These two farms were quarantined and all birds at these farms were culled with cooperation of the poultry farmers and the Pakistan Poultry Association.

Since then no incidence of bird flu was reported from any part of the country.

Source: Xinhua

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200604/17/eng20060417_258875.html

:vik:
 

Seabird

Veteran Member
It is interesting that the number of countries effected have remained the same for nearly three weeks now. That is a good thing, considering how the number of countries increased every few days for a couple of months.


Seabird
 

JohnGaltfla

#NeverTrump
I liked the part in today's local rag about how the NG would be called out to repel "insurrection".

I took that to mean us preppers as it's surely and anti-government plot to have masks, gloves, food and water to endure a 90 day quarantine in your city while everyone else lines up like a bleeting sheep for help.
 
=




<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Bush preparing to approve bird flu plan that calls for
drive-through medical exams, other steps </font>

By Nedra Pickler
ASSOCIATED PRESS
12:41 p.m. April 16, 2006
<A href="http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/health/20060416-1241-birdflu.html">www.signonsandiego.com</a></center>
WASHINGTON – In the event of a bird flu outbreak, U.S. money could be produced overseas and Americans checked in drive-through medical exams for signs of infection, according to government plans being finalized. </b>

Federal officials say the first case of bird flu could show up in the United States in the coming weeks or months as birds migrate from overseas. President Bush is expected to approve a national response plan in the next week or two laying out how agencies should respond if it were transmitted to humans.

<b>The plan assumes a worst-case scenario that as many as 90 million people in the U.S. would become sick and 2 million would die during a worldwide flu pandemic.</b>

It envisions people may need to avoid human contact and stay home from work, school and other large gathering places, according to officials familiar with draft. Some details of the draft, first in Sunday's Washington Post, were confirmed by officials at the White House who spoke anonymously because the plan has not been finalized.

Dr. Bruce Gellin, director of the National Vaccine Program Office at the Health and Human Services Department, said the report builds on the strategy that Bush outlined six months ago – new flu-vaccine technology and greater stockpiles of vaccines and antivirals.

The government had focused on health issues in that earlier report, but a pandemic would affect every aspect of government, Gellin said.

The response plan, assembled by the president's Homeland Security Council, lays out who should be the first vaccinated, proposes that other countries make U.S. money if domestic locations cannot operate. The plan anticipates that employees could strain Internet capacity while working from home computers.

The U.S. has had such money agreements with allies in the past in case of emergency, a White House official said, but there is no current arrangement. Congress approval would be needed for a new deal.

<b>The Veterans Affairs Department has developed a medical exam that could be conducted in VA hospital parking lots, with those who suspect they may be infected able to get a quick exam. The program is modeled after a drive-through flu vaccination program conducted last year. </b>

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the National Institutes of Health's infectious disease chief, said in an interview with The Associated Press last week that scientists are debating whether to vaccinate first those most likely to spread the virus, rather than those traditionally first in line for winter flu shots, including the very old, very young and chronically ill. That policy still is under debate, he said.
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>U.S. Braces For Deadly Bird Flu</font>

5:05 pm EDT April 16, 2006
<A href="http://www.wmtw.com/news/8742936/detail.html">www.wmtw.com</a></center>
WASHINGTON -- Federal officials say the first case of bird flu could show up in the U.S. in the coming months or even weeks as birds migrate from overseas.

The government is now finalizing a plan that lays out how agencies should respond if it were transmitted to humans.

It recognizes that people may need to avoid human contact and stay home from work, school and other large gathering places.</b>

So, the plan proposes that other countries make U.S. money if domestic locations cannot operate. And it anticipates that Internet capacity could be strained while employees work from home computers.

The plan also lays out who should receive the initial vaccinations.

The government is assuming a worst-case scenario in which as many as 90 million Americans would become sick and 2 million people would die during a worldwide flu pandemic.

Pakistan Confirms Bird Flu Outbreak

Authorities in Pakistan confirmed the country's second outbreak of the deadly strain of bird flu on Sunday.

Agricultural ministry officials said the H5N1 strain turned up at a poultry farm near the Pakistani capital.

Officials said they suspect the disease may have come from infected wild birds.

About 3,500 chickens have been slaughtered at the farm. Officials are taking samples from nearby farms to find out whether the disease has spread.

There have been no reports of the disease among humans in Pakistan. The World Health Organization counts 109 human deaths from the disease.
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Smuggling of birds aiding spread of H5N1 </font>

Posted on : Mon, 17 Apr 2006 01:02:00 GMT
Author : Ryan Jones
News Category : Health
<A href="http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/6172.html">www.earthtimes.org</a></center>
As if migration of birds wasn't enough, smuggling of poultry and poultry products has now become the latest mode of the spread of the dreaded H5N1 virus. “No one knows the real numbers, but they are large. Behind illegal drug traffic, illegal animals are number two. And there is no doubt in my mind that this will play a prominent role in the spread of this disease. It looks to be the main way it is spreading in some parts of the world,” said Timothy E Moore, a spokesman for the National Agricultural Biosecurity Center at Kansas State University.</b>

Even though the European Union has banned the imports of poultry products from countries where bird flu has been detected, birds are easily being swapped across the borders. Many smuggled birds come from China, one of the countries worst affected by the virus.

A lot of smuggling happens between China and Africa, so much so that medical experts believe that the detection of the H5N1 virus in Nigeria can be attributed to smuggling of infected birds. The strain that was detected in Nigeria resembles the one found in China, said Wade Hagemeijer, a bird flu specialist from Wetlands International, a group that is tracking the spread of the disease through migration of birds.

“We believe it is spread by both bird migration and trade, but that trade, particularly illegal trade, is more important,” Hagemeijer added. According to Nancy Morgan, of United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Egypt might be another country that contracted H5N1 due to smuggling. “In developing countries, the border controls are marginal at best. As long as there's economic incentive, it (smuggling) will happen,” she said.

Her colleague Dr Juan Lubroth added that it is not easy to curb the menace, which has serious repercussions for human health worldwide. “I would love to have a map of illegal trade, but I'm embarrassed to say we don't have a good handle on it. We all know it occurs and we are worried, but what we see confiscated is only the tip of the iceberg,” he said.

Meanwhile, the detection of the dreaded virus in a third province in Afghanistan has created panic among poultry farmers in the Gulf country. According to the FAO, the province of Logar became the latest in Afghanistan to show the presence of H5N1. The other areas that were found to have the dreaded virus are Kabul and Nangarhar. The spread of the virus in the country has serious implications for many widowed women who depend on poultry farming for their livelihood.

According to Paul Barker, a spokesman for CARE International's Afghanistan chapter, poultry farming has proved to be the best means of livelihood for around 3,000 women in the country. “We tried dozens of income-generating ideas for widows, from tailoring to bakeries, and this one has worked the best. Most widows have no access to land or capital, so they can't raise large animals like cows. Poultry has been such a great fit, so bird flu was a potentially devastating blow,” he said.

For many, killing off poultry isn't an option. “I am too old to do hard work, and my eyes are too weak to embroider. I would rather die than kill my chickens,” said Abida, a 50-year-old Charai Qamber farmer who lost the males of her family to a civil conflict in the 1990s. She, however, added that women like her were learning to fight human and poultry infection by maintaining hygiene and bringing any suspicions to the notice of the authorities.

“At first we worried a lot about this disease, but now we have been taught how to avoid it, how to keep the cages and bowls clean. None of us can afford to lose our chickens,” said 35-year-old widow Majan. “Now we know what to do about this new disease. We wash and boil eggs before eating them, we keep the pens clean and change the soil,” said Abida.
 

Barry Natchitoches

Has No Life - Lives on TB
PCViking said:
Bush expected to approve dramatic pandemic flu response plan

www.chinaview.cn 2006-04-17 09:21:03

BEIJING, April 17 (Xinhuanet) -- U.S. President George W. Bush is expected to approve within days a national pandemic influenza response plan under which the government would expand the Internet and possibly permit foreign countries to print U.S. currency during a flu pandemic.

:vik:




W T F ???



When a country relinquishes control of its currency, it's ADIOS AMIGO....


I don't use this emoticon lightly:


:dstrs: :dstrs: :dstrs: :dstrs: :dstrs:
 

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
Barry Natchitoches said:

W T F ???



When a country relinquishes control of its currency, it's ADIOS AMIGO....


I don't use this emoticon lightly:


:dstrs: :dstrs: :dstrs: :dstrs: :dstrs:

:siren: BN, You got it!

You'all remember when Margaret Thatcher was putting the brakes on the UK joining the EU? Her big issue was that whoever controlls the money, controls the country... :siren: 'W' could take a lesson from her! But, then this could be looked at as a 'globalist's' dream come true...

:vik:
 

JohnGaltfla

#NeverTrump
Barry Natchitoches said:

W T F ???



When a country relinquishes control of its currency, it's ADIOS AMIGO....


I don't use this emoticon lightly:


:dstrs: :dstrs: :dstrs: :dstrs: :dstrs:

We relinquished control when EHM Greenspan was allowed to do his thing....
 

sy32478

Veteran Member
The unanswered question here being "Why do we need to print so much money?". Is this an admission that the U.S. economy would collapse if not for the constant inflation / watered down $ that is printed? Could we last 90 days without any new paper money? :confused:
 

Buster

Inactive
sy32478
The unanswered question here being "Why do we need to print so much money?".
It also begs the question: "If it is a worldwide pandemic, then why would some other country be able to run the printing presses and we will not?" As for expanding the internet, is that the same thing as taking over the internet?
 

New Freedom

Veteran Member
PCViking said:
The Bird Flu news this weekend has been dominated by talk about Bush's new pandemic flu prep plan... it seemed appropriate to start the monday thread with as overseas view and an domestic view...

Bush expected to approve dramatic pandemic flu response plan

www.chinaview.cn 2006-04-17 09:21:03

BEIJING, April 17 (Xinhuanet) -- U.S. President George W. Bush is expected to approve within days a national pandemic influenza response plan under which the government would expand the Internet and possibly permit foreign countries to print U.S. currency during a flu pandemic.

Washington Post reported on Sunday that the document is the first to spell out how the U.S. government would detect and respond to a flu outbreak and continue to function through what could be an 18-month crisis capable of killing up to 1.9 million Americans.

The U.S. Treasury Department is poised to sign agreements with other nations to produce currency if U.S. mints cannot operate, according to the report. The Pentagon is considering stockpiling millions of latex gloves and the Department of Veterans Affairs has developed a drive-through medical exam to quickly assess patients who suspect they have been infected.

The 240-page response plan identifies more than 300 specific tasks for federal agencies, including determining which frontline workers should be vaccinated first and expanding the Internet to accommodate a likely flood of people working from their home computers, according to the newspaper.

Bush was briefed on a draft of the plan on March 17. He is expected to approve the plan within the week, but it continues to evolve, said several administration officials who have been working on it.

The White House is eager to show it can manage the medical, security and economic fallout from a major outbreak following its widely criticized response to Hurricane Katrina,
the Post said.

Concern about a possible pandemic has grown with the emergence of the H5N1 avian flu, the most dangerous strain in decades. Enditem

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-04/17/content_4433336.htm

:vik:



Good catch, PCV.......love how that little piece of information about printing money abroad, is just casually mentioned in the middle of the article..........:sht:
 

Bill P

Inactive
A careful read of the article about others being set up to print US currency indicates that this has occured in the past. So It may not follow that this would automatically cause a collapse or a loss of control over money supply.

Dollars are the global currency reserve. There are more dollars in circulation outside the USA than inside the 50 states of the USA.

It appears that planners feel the need to establish redundant sources of doolar supplies. I suspect this is to maintain the role of the dollar as the preferred international currency.

Recall that pre-Y2K rollover there were alledged jumbo 747 loaded with dollar bills ready to run to wherever there was a shortfall.

If there were a dollar shortage, than domestic, international and/or localized overseas markest could become chaotic with an end result that the confidence in the dollar falls resulting in a loss of dollar purchasing power.

Just because someone else prints it - it doesnt automatically follow that control over the supply is lost.

BUT I will agree that control over the supply is almost lost now - prepandemic and that this contingency plan is likely going to be a consequence in the conmtinud death spiral of industralized civilization.


Oh and the above numbers cited dont quite track with current facts. EX: 90 million sick and 2 million die doesnt track with current >50% fatality rate of those infected.
 

New Freedom

Veteran Member
Sobering article especially this paragraph:


'There will be no breakthrough this year, Stohr said. "It will take six years to have enough vaccine for 20 percent of the world's population. It may take eight to 10 years to solve the problem." :shkr:





http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/news/nation/14347296.htm

Posted on Sat, Apr. 15, 2006

Scientists go beyond eggs to make bird flu vaccine
But big supplies won't be ready anytime soon

BY ROBERT S. BOYD
Washington Bureau

CLEVELAND — Health scientists and engineers are racing to find new ways to produce a vaccine that will protect people from the threat of a worldwide bird-flu pandemic.

They're working with plants, insects and bacteria that they hope can churn out huge quantities of vaccine more efficiently than the present, agonizingly slow system of using millions of chicken eggs.

An adequate supply of vaccine for the lethal H5N1 flu virus won't be available for years, experts from seven countries, 44 universities and 60 biotechnology companies agreed at a conference this week in Cleveland sponsored by the National Academy of Sciences.

"We're not ready," said Bruce Gellin, the director of the National Vaccine Program Office at the Department of Health and Human Services. "If it happens tomorrow or next year, we're in trouble. It's a sobering picture."

Klaus Stohr, the head of the World Health Organization Influenza Team, said that one dose of a safe, effective vaccine for H5N1 was "going to be much more valuable than diamonds."

In the past three years, bird flu — also known as avian flu — has killed millions of birds, a small number of mammals and 109 humans in Asia, Europe and Africa. So far, it's overwhelmingly a bird disease, but it's mutating rapidly and might change into a form that could pass among humans.

The 2006 spring bird-migration season is just beginning, raising fears that the virus could reach the Western Hemisphere this year.

"It's routine for a virus to cross hemispheres from Russia to Canada via the Arctic," said Michael Callahan, the manager of avian influenza surveillance for the Department of State.

Ducks and other wild birds can carry a virus along an established "flyway" through Alaska to Washington state, Oregon, California, Arizona and Mexico. A sick or dead duck could be a warning signal.

About 30 potential vaccines are being tested for safety and effectiveness in the United States and Europe, but the results have been disappointing, Stohr said.

The tests show that very high doses of vaccine — and at least two shots — are needed to prevent infection, which means much greater quantities will be necessary, far more than can be produced by current technology.

There will be no breakthrough this year, Stohr said. "It will take six years to have enough vaccine for 20 percent of the world's population. It may take eight to 10 years to solve the problem." :shkr:

Futhermore, the virus keeps changing, so a vaccine developed for one type of flu may not work against another variant. The H5N1 type that began in Asia already has split into two main branches.

"They are different enough that we may need two stockpiles of vaccine," said James Matthews, the senior science-policy director at Sanofi Pasteur, a vaccine manufacturer in Swiftwater, Pa.

To meet the challenge, scientists are trying to grow vaccines in various kinds of cells, which they multiply in giant vats, instead of in eggs. Yeast, tobacco leaf, soybeans and duckweed cell cultures avoid many of the problems encountered with eggs, but that still doesn't speed up the process much.

"You can't make cells divide any faster," said Patrick Scannon, the chief scientist at Xoma Ltd., a biotechnology firm in Berkeley, Calif.

Researchers also are seeking novel methods to deliver vaccine to patients without the necessity of refrigeration and sterile needles, which can pose obstacles in many parts of the world.

"Theoretically you could have a vaccine in a tomato," said Alan Shaw, the president of VacInnate, a biotechnology company in New Haven, Conn. Eating the tomato would provide additional protection after the first inoculation, like a booster shot, he said.

Another idea is to insert the genes for the virus in the DNA of a bacterial cell and then inject it into a human cell. Once there, the DNA generates the proteins that block infection.

"You make the vaccine all by yourself," Shaw said.

Given the lack of an adequate vaccine, experts at the conference stressed the importance of a strong surveillance system to detect a local flu outbreak promptly, before it can spread into a pandemic. Such a system helped limit the SARS epidemic, which killed 774 people in Canada and Asia in 2003.

"We need a computerized system to collect events and spot clusters," said Roy Anderson, an epidemiologist at London's Imperial College. "Two days is the critical threshold for a quarantine to control H5N1."

"The key to our survival in the next two or three years is good surveillance," Shaw said.

"We need to be on a wartime footing," Gellin said. "Innovation comes out of crisis."
 

JPD

Inactive
Bird flu: The full scale of the threat in East Africa


http://www.nationmedia.com/eastafrican/current/Magazine/Magazine170420061.htm

While countries in the region have been quick to form task forces to control bird flu, and have also responded swiftly to protect their poultry industries, some observers say little has been done to cushion the tourism industry from the likely shocks. Special Correspondent WAIRAGALA WAKABI reports

THOUGH THE VIRUS THAT CAUSES bird flu has not been found in wild birds in Africa, there are concerns among conservation and tourism circles that the bird flu scare could hurt Africa's birding industry, for which East African countries are a popular destination.

At the same time, agencies like the Food and Agricultural Organisation are warning that farming practices prevalent in several African countries – such as using poultry litter as livestock feed – as well as rampant illegal trade in birds, could aid the spread of the highly pathogenic strain of the H5N1 bird flu virus, which can kill humans.

But while scientists continue investigating the role of wild birds in the spread of bird flu, conservationists say the virus is certain to have implications for wild bird conservation. They also say that although the migratory birds are leaving East Africa at the moment, the region must not put its guard down as some birds could bring the virus to the region when they return beginning from late August.

"There should be heightened surveillance of migratory wild birds, with collection of as much ecological information as possible in the case of confirmed outbreaks," says Paul Kariuki Ndang'ang'a, the programme manager in charge of African species at the Nairobi-based Africa office of BirdLife International. He adds that there should be continuous surveillance of poultry and wild birds, and prompt testing whenever any unusual deaths occur.

Agencies like FAO, BirdLife, and tourism groups across Africa have been concerned that scares over the flu could prompt tourists, particularly birders, to stay away from the region. They say that while the threat of bird flu to humans remains minimal, tourists often make decisions that are not entirely based on factual information.

In Africa, bird flu has been reported in Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger and Egypt, which raised the prospects of hard times for East Africa's main birding destinations, even though there has been no trace of the virus in the region. Thousands of wild birds have been tested (both dead and apparently healthy) throughout major migratory bird stopover sites in Mauritania, Tanzania, Burkina Faso, Kenya, Senegal, Botswana and Cote d'Ivoire.

"It is however still important to prevent contact between wild birds and domestic poultry. Some of the outbreaks in Africa have been near important wild bird areas, like the Logone flood plains around Lake Chad," Ndang'ang'a told The EastAfrican.

African resident, non-migratory waterfowl species often have short to mid-range movements in response to droughts – for example movement to coasts from wetlands that dry out – and it is possible that infected wild birds could spread the disease over short distances between countries.

Dr Hazell Thompson Shokellu, a doctor of ornithology and head of BirdLife's African programmes, told The EastAfrican that governments will need to be keen on controlling movements of poultry and poultry products, besides monitoring the migrating wild birds' routes.

THE MAJOR ENTRY AND exit points for the birds include the Strait of Gibraltar, through which birds enter Morocco and proceed through Mauritania to West Africa. These birds mostly fly to and from Europe. Others fly between Sicily and Malta through Tunisia to Algeria, Libya, West Africa via Mali and/ or Central Africa via Chad.

Other birds come to Africa from Norway, Sweden and Russia; while from the Eastern Mediterranean, birds enter Africa through Djibouti and proceed through Ethiopia to East Africa. This route is the main one used by migrating birds to and from Asia.

But the River Jordan to Nile Valley corridor is considered the most significant one for bird migration in the world. It is the main eastern corridor between Europe, Asia and Africa that is regularly used by over a million birds to pass through a series of sites each season.

From this corridor, birds enter Egypt and then fly through Sudan, Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania on to Southern Africa (Malawi, Zimbabwe and South Africa). This route takes birds from central Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia. Sea birds and some shore birds, on the other hand, migrate along the western coastline of Africa beginning from Morocco, through the West African coastline to southern Africa.

While countries in the region have been quick to form task forces to control bird flu, and have also responded swiftly to protect their poultry industries, some observers say little has been done to cushion the tourism industry from the likely shocks. This is despite the fact that tourism is a key income earner for East Africa, and that birding in particular is becoming an important attraction for high-spending tourists.

"Governments must make a really concerted effort to step up surveillance, control poultry movements and stamp out infections if and when they arise," an official of Nature Uganda, a bird conservation agency, told The EastAfrican.

The official said developed countries have pledged substantial international help and funding for avian flu control and these pledges need to be fulfilled. Currently, the shortage of funds is limiting the efforts of countries like Uganda to take adequate measures.

Kenya has banned the importation of poultry and poultry products from areas with confirmed avian flu outbreaks. The country has also set up what the Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries Development calls "an extensive surveillance system that is able to detect and contain any avian flu outbreaks."

Conservationists say better communication is key to reducing the socioeconomic, conservation and tourism impact of H5N1. They add that governments need to provide accurate information on the risk to people. For instance, bird-human transmission is low and close contact, such as for people handling poultry, is necessary for this to happen.

Governments also need to educate people on how they can minimise their risk of infection and how they can reduce their chances of contributing to the spread of the disease.

FAO is recommending that the feeding of poultry manure/ poultry litter should be banned in countries affected by or at risk from avian influenza, even if it is correctly composted, ensiled or dried with heat treatment. The use of poultry litter in livestock feeding is widespread in East Africa and across the continent.

At the beginning of February, the Paris-based World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) said the deadly strain of bird flu had been found in poultry in northern Nigeria. This was the first time that the disease was detected in Africa.

Birds infected with the H5N1 excrete virus particles in their faeces. Putting untreated faeces from infected birds into fish ponds and on to fields provides a potential new source of infection. Researchers say although recognised as early as 1988, the risks of this practice for spreading influenza viruses remain little investigated.

There are several ways in which H5N1 can be spread within and between countries. Three major potential routes are the movement of infected poultry and poultry products, movement of caged wild birds in trade, and movement of migratory wild birds.

Recent H5N1 outbreaks among wild birds in Europe and the Middle East show that wild birds are capable of carrying the virus over long distances. Experts also say there is need for heightened biosecurity even in indoor poultry operations.

But many questions remain concerning the effects of the virus on wild birds and how effectively they can spread it to other wild birds or to domestic poultry. "Recent outbreaks in India, Nigeria and Egypt originated within the poultry industry. Here, as in most other H5N1 outbreaks, there is strong circumstantial evidence that movements of poultry and poultry products are responsible," BirdLife says.

In the meantime, the scare over the flu is having negative effects on bird conservation. Environmentalists say that in some countries, politicians have called on hunters to wipe out incoming migrant birds. Some governments have reportedly revived plans to drain wetlands, under the pretext of denying waterfowl landing and breeding places.

Nests of birds, such as the Barn Swallow that breeds in close proximity with man, have been destroyed in the mistaken belief that this measure will lessen the risk of contracting bird flu. "None of these measures will control the spread of avian influenza, but will instead put wild birds and other biodiversity in jeopardy," says BirdLife.

ALTHOUGH H5N1 CAN cause serious disease in people, the virus is hard to catch. Transmission from poultry to humans remains difficult, usually involving prolonged and intimate contact, and so far the virus does not seem to spread from person to person. A major concern is that it might evolve into a form that is transmitted easily between people, thereby provoking a pandemic.

In the past 100 years, there have been at least three major pandemics of human influenza A, which killed many people around the world. It is thought that these deadly virus strains arose when bird flu and human influenza viruses came together, possibly in pigs, and reassorted their genetic material.

Continued outbreaks of H5N1 increase the chances of this happening again, especially as the current strain of H5N1 is exceptional in that it can pass directly from poultry to humans, without the intervention of an intermediate host.

The World Health Organisation, FAO and OIE say control of avian influenza in wild birds by culling is not feasible, and attempts at culling would spread the virus more widely, as survivors disperse to new places, and healthy birds become stressed and more prone to infection.

They say culls of wild birds and destruction of their habitat are not appropriate control measures. They are at best ineffective, probably counterproductive and distract people from more suitable interventions. They would also cause much negative environmental impact.

Originating in poultry, the H5N1 virus has caused deaths among wild water birds at several locations in Asia and most recently in the Middle East and Europe. There have also been recent outbreaks in poultry in Africa, India and Europe. In the latter half of 2005, it was widely predicted that wild water birds – thought to be the most likely species to carry the virus – would spread H5N1 to their non-breeding grounds in Southeast and South Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Australasia.

By February 2006, only a handful of dead wild birds with H5N1 had been discovered in Southeast Asia. These were resident species in Hong Kong, where diseased, illegally imported poultry were also found. No cases of H5N1 had been found among migrant birds in their non-breeding grounds in the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand or Africa.

However, two outbreaks have occurred in poultry in Africa. There is strong circumstantial evidence that the first of these, in Nigeria, was through the illegal importation of poultry (possibly from China or Turkey). The second, in Egypt, originated in and is currently confined to the poultry sector. In India, outbreaks in backyard poultry flocks in mid-February were apparently caused by the supply of infected birds from a commercial hatchery.

By contrast, in Europe and the Middle East, there have been numerous reports of dead wild birds across many countries. These include thousands of birds in Azerbaijan, plus smaller numbers in Bosnia Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Iran, Romania, Slovenia and Turkey.

Ornithologists say their near-simultaneous appearance in these countries is likely to be in response to cold weather in regions further to the east, causing birds to move towards warmer climes. The infected birds could have come into contact with the virus in the Black Sea region, where it is known to have been present in poultry flocks for several months.

Researchers are now warning that the migrating birds that are leaving East Africa at the moment could present a threat once they return, even if the scientists add that poultry and poultry products seem to hold bigger potential for aiding the spread of the virus across Africa.

The first poultry outbreak in Western Europe was at a closed turkey farm in Ain, France. This outbreak, scientists say, shows that bringing poultry indoors may not be effective, by itself, in halting the disease's spread. It is not yet clear how, or when, the virus entered the closed farm and it will be important to follow all lines of inquiry to determine the likely source of the outbreak.

The European incidents clearly demonstrate that wild birds can carry the virus to new sites after infection – at least during the disease's incubation period, which may last several days. Nevertheless, our understanding of the epidemiology of H5N1 in wild birds, and the behaviour of the virus in the wider environment, remains inadequate, according to BirdLife International scientists.
 

JPD

Inactive
Ill-equipped South Asia looks resigned to bird flu


http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/DEL279670.htm

By Krittivas Mukherjee

MUMBAI, April 17 (Reuters) - Bird flu is spreading across one of the most crowded places on earth and, far from being brought under control, looks almost certain to remain a long-term menace in South Asian poultry, officials say.

Since February, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Myanmar have culled hundreds of thousands of chickens and shut poultry farms, yet the virus has kept spreading to new areas.

Surprisingly, no humans are known to have been infected in South Asia, where hundreds of millions in the countryside live with their livestock.

But fears over the H5N1 flu virus have slashed demand for chicken meat and eggs, ruining the livelihoods of countless workers in India's $7.8 billion poultry industry and even leading to the suicides of nine Indian farmers, an industry group said.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) and some Indian officials say that once the virus takes hold in any country -- developed or not -- it is just about impossible to eradicate.

"Has any disease which has come in the last 50 years into India gone away?" said H.K. Pradhan, head of India's only animal diseases laboratory that carries out tests for bird flu.

Worse still is a lack of laboratories, trained veterinary personnel and ignorance about the disease.

Officials admit they face an uphill battle against bird flu, which experts fear could mutate and spread easily from person to person, triggering a pandemic.

In a region where many have little or no access to stretched health services, a mutated strain could spread rapidly among humans, leaving countless numbers of people to fend for themselves.

While officials might feel a sense of crisis, the reaction of many ordinary people is slowly turning from panic to cautious resignation.

In a region of more than 1.3 billion people, bird flu is just one of many threats they face as they try to overcome poverty, the danger of other illnesses, militancy and natural disasters.

"I hope bird flu does not become part of our lives," said Faiz Qureshi, a young restaurant owner in New Delhi.

"There are car accidents in the streets everyday, but people don't stop driving, do they?" he said, surveying his almost empty restaurant known for chicken and mutton dishes.

In Pakistan, a small number of people, mostly in cities, have stopped eating chickens but the majority seems indifferent to the disease and chicken sales are largely normal.

"I am not convinced there is bird flu in Pakistan. It has all to do with the media," said Shahina Munawar, a Karachi housewife.

MIND THE GAP

India, with 1.1 billion people, is trying to stamp out its fourth outbreak since February and has culled about 500,000 birds and destroyed nearly two million eggs mostly in the country's west.

But the WHO says the gap between reporting dead birds, laboratory confirmation and action on the ground in India was large at about 15 days.

"The gap in reporting dead birds and results of blood samples delays immediate action on the ground and bird flu may spread to further areas," Subhash Salunke, WHO South Asia regional adviser, told Reuters.

Much of the region's poultry industry is unorganised. In Afghanistan, years of war and insurgency, a difficult terrain and shambolic infrastructure have hampered efforts to fight bird flu.

"Bird flu is going on and the killing of chickens and quarantine procedures are going on," said Azizullah Osmani, a senior Afghan agriculture ministry official.

Afghanistan has confirmed H5N1 in a third province and suspects it has been found in two more, a U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation official said on Thursday.

In neighbouring Pakistan, officials say the H5N1 strain was found in two poultry flocks and after culling around 23,000 birds it has not resurfaced.

"Apparently, the situation is under control, but we are uncertain on many points and cannot be dead sure that we have controlled this problem," said Muhammad Afzal, Pakistan's livestock commissioner.

"We also lack proper equipment and trained people to check those farms, so the suspicion is that it could be hidden somewhere, in some farm."

Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have so far been lucky despite their proximity to India but both have closely monitored migratory birds and possible smuggling of poultry from infected countries.

With migratory birds heading back to Central Asia, Sri Lanka could get some relief for a few months, but smuggled poultry remains a worry for the country as well.

There are also serious concerns about Myanmar. U.N. officials say the country's secretive military regime is facing more than 100 outbreaks in poultry but so far the government has been cooperating with U.N. teams on the ground. (Additional reporting by Kamil Zaheer in NEW DELHI, Aamir Ashraf in ISLAMABAD, Robert Birsel in KABUL, and bureaux in DHAKA and COLOMBO)
 
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