04/13 | Daily Bird Flu Thread: Mutation in full flight

Link to yesterday's thread: http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=193167

Human Cases

Since January, 2004 WHO has reported human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) in the following countries:

* East Asia and the Pacific:
o Cambodia
o China
o Indonesia
o Thailand
o Vietnam

* Europe & Eurasia:
o Azerbaijan
(see update)
o Turkey

* Near East:
o Egypt
o Iraq

For additional information about these reports, visit the
World Health Organization Web Site.

Updated April 3, 2006

Animal Cases

Since December 2003, avian influenza A (H5N1) infections in poultry or wild birds have been reported in the following countries:

* Africa:
o Burkina Faso
o Cameroon
o Niger
o Nigeria

* East Asia & the Pacific:
o Cambodia
o China
o Hong Kong (SARPRC)
o Indonesia
o Japan
o Laos
o Malaysia
o Mongolia
o Myanmar (Burma)
o Thailand
o Vietnam

* South Asia:
o Afghanistan
o India
o Kazakhstan
o Pakistan

* Near East:
o Egypt
o Iraq (H5)
o Iran
o Israel
o Jordan

* Europe & Eurasia:
o
* Albania
* Austria
* Azerbaijan
* Bosnia & Herzegovina
* Bulgaria
* Croatia
* Czech Republic (H5)
* Denmark
* France
* Georgia
* Germany
* Greece
* Hungary
* Italy
* Poland
* Romania
* Russia
* Serbia & Montenegro
* Slovak Republic
* Slovenia
* Sweden
* Switzerland
* Turkey
* Ukraine
* United Kingdom


For additional information about these reports, visit the
World Organization for Animal Health Web Site: http://www.oie.int/eng/en_index.htm

Updated April 7, 2006

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/current.htm

WHO, Avian Flu Timeline in .pdf: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/timeline.pdf

Mutation in full flight

Evolution is usually a slow process but it can move rapidly in lethal viruses such as bird flu​

Johnjoe McFadden
Thursday April 13, 2006
The Guardian

Creationists often claim that evolution is just a theory since no one has ever observed it. Being generally a slow process, it is hard to catch evolution in action. But it isn't always slow. For fast replicating pathogens, such as the bird flu virus, evolutionary change can be rapid and lethal. Even Darwin, the originator of the theory of natural selection, lamented the "clumsy, wasteful, blundering, low and horribly cruel" nature of its action. The evolution of the H5N1 strain of bird flu is now advancing on a million wings, and its course may seal the fate of many of us.

The snail's pace of animal evolution is usually tracked by examining changes in anatomical structures, such as the coil of a shell or the length of a bone. But microbes have neither bones nor shells, so evolutionary biologists have to make do with measuring molecular changes. Each time an organism replicates it must copy its genetic material - DNA or RNA (a close relative of DNA) - and there is the potential for introducing errors: mutations. Our cells devote a lot of resources to minimising copying errors, but viruses are less picky and tolerate higher mutation rates. The speed of evolution depends on the mutation rate and the frequency of replication. Large animals that take years to reproduce evolve slowly, but viruses that can replicate within minutes can evolve within hours.

A central tenet of evolutionary theory is that mutations are random. Each time the virus reproduces it rolls the genetic dice to generate progeny just a little different from itself. The grim reaper of natural selection then separates the wheat from the chaff of evolutionary innovation, favouring the survival of only the fittest progeny. So each time the bird flu virus replicates, it generates new mutants - any one of which may increase its fitness for humans. Much of the pathology of infectious diseases is the parasite's means of getting out of one host and into another. Respiratory pathogens make you cough because coughs and sneezes spread diseases. The H5N1 strain causes diarrhoea because the virus is often spread by bird droppings.

In every infected bird is a H5N1 virus busily replicating and throwing off mutants, any one of which may acquire the key that could unlock our respiratory cells. This will not be an advantage if it happens in a bird, but if the mutation emerges while the virus is replicating in a human victim, then natural selection will kick in to select mutant viruses that can replicate in the human respiratory tract. Once there, the virus could cause the coughs and sneezes that would allow its spread to lots more victims. At least two of the three previous pandemics of influenza this century (1957 and 1968) were caused by avian flu viruses.

So far there have been only about 200 cases of H5N1 influenza in humans, vastly fewer than the millions of cases estimated in birds, so the evolutionary dynamics of H5N1 are still firmly tied to their feathered hosts. However, each human victim is effectively a Darwinian roulette wheel, with natural selection acting as the banker ready to reward any new viruses capable of crossing the species barrier.

We aren't there yet. The fact that the H5N1 strain has infected only a few humans is testimony to its low rate of infectivity. Given enough time and enough human hosts a species jump becomes almost inevitable. But nobody knows how much time, or how many hosts are needed to generate a pandemic strain. An outbreak of the H5N1 disease in Hong Kong in 1997 was controlled by extensive culling of domestic fowl. Our best hope is that this outbreak will be similarly controlled or burn itself out before the evolutionary dynamics of H5N1 can shift to the human population.

· Johnjoe McFadden is professor of molecular genetics at the University of Surrey and author of Quantum Evolution

http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,1752564,00.html

Fear bird flu test 'flaws' have missed other cases​

GETHIN CHAMBERLAIN CHIEF NEWS CORRESPONDENT

SCIENTISTS have raised the possibility that hundreds of cases of bird flu may have been missed because of flaws in Britain's testing regime.

Dr Bjorn Olsen, who conducts Europe's biggest bird monitoring survey, warned yesterday that many flu cases could be missed because of the way that samples are handled.

His concerns about the methods used were backed yesterday by Professor Hugh Pennington, Britain's leading bacteriologist, who said the criticism appeared to be valid.

The claims came as the authorities continued to deliberate on the need for further measures to be put in place in the wake of the discovery that the swan found in Fife with the H5N1 strain of bird flu was a migratory bird which may have moved around the UK infecting other populations.

Writing in the New Scientist magazine Dr Olsen, from the University of Kalmar in Sweden, questioned the comparatively low rates of positive tests for cases of low pathogenicity bird flu found by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA).

During tests in December, DEFRA found only two cases of low-pathogenic bird flu out of 3,343 samples collected by the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust - equivalent to 0.06 per cent. Another study found that in 423 ducks, only 0.7 per cent had bird flu.

But Dr Olsen said the UK findings were flawed. "There's something wrong with these numbers," he said.

Dr Olsen tests 10,000 birds a year and typically finds that 10 per cent of dabbling ducks and 1 per cent of geese are infected with low-pathogenic bird flu. Other studies carried out with colleagues in Holland have found even higher infection rates. In the US, experience indicates that 6 to 7 per cent of birds should test positive for mild forms of flu.

Dr Olsen said the method of sample collection may be the behind the discrepancy.

His concerns were echoed by Prof Pennington, from the University of Aberdeen. He said: "The virus is not that stable. As soon as the bird dies, the virus starts to die. You can reduce the death rate by keeping it under appropriate controls in an appropriate medium. You can protect the virus by putting it in an appropriate liquid. There are genuine issues here about whether DEFRA is using the right system or not."

DEFRA said it stood by its testing methods and said that the Veterinary Laboratories Agency, which carries out the tests, was world renowned.

Last updated: 13-Apr-06 01:14 BST

http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/scotland.cfm?id=562382006

Tamiflu in Saskatchewan

IMHO, when tshtf, this'll be the kind of stories we'll have to decyfer...

Influenza outbreak at Pineview​

By Robert Arnason
Journal Staff
Wednesday April 12, 2006

Nipawin Journal — Influenza outbreak at Pineview
Visitors are barred from Pineview Lodge following a confirmed case of influenza on April 8. Eleven residents have symptoms of the flu and are being asked to stay inside their rooms, to prevent further spread.
By Robert Arnason
Journal Staff

An outbreak of influenza last weekend has forced the Kelsey Trail Health Region to bar visitors from Pineview Lodge in Nipawin.

As of April 10, only one case of influenza was confirmed, but 11 of the 96 residents at the care home are showing symptoms of the flu.

The first case was confirmed on Saturday, April 8. But the health region would not release if the confirmed case is a man or a woman, for privacy reasons.

All visitors are restricted from the building, unless they are visiting residents who are extremely ill, until further notice.

"There's no way of knowing how long the restrictions will be in effect," said Peggy Ratcliffe, corporate communications officer for the health region. "It's going to be evaluated on a day to day basis. They'll evaluate as this progresses or subsides."

To control further spread, all 96 residents have been given Tamiflu, the anti-flu drug, and people with symptoms are staying in their room.

"They’re trying to minimize the risk of exposing people," said Ratcliffe.

"Only those showing active symptoms, are being confined to their rooms," she said. "Other residents are being encouraged to limit their interactions, but that's not being strictly enforced.”

The employees, however, are not being forced to remain at the care home.
"Staff are not being restricted - as far as their coming and going from the facility," Ratcliffe said, adding that employees who haven’t had the flu shot, have the option of taking Tamiflu.

Ratcliffe also said that the relatives of residents have been informed of the restriction.

"I believe Pineview has contacted all the families of all of the residents at this point. To let them know what's going on," she said. "I'm assuming if there is a change, they will keep them informed."

If relatives would like to visit a resident who is extremely ill, Ratcliffe said they will have to get permission from Pineview.

"That will be decided by the facility administrator, in consult with family decision," she said.

If you are considering visiting a resident of Pineview in the next few days, Ratcliffe advises that you call the care home to find out the status of the visitor restriction. She said the families of residents are very appreciative of the efforts of Pineview employees -- for all their work to contain the outbreak.

This outbreak of influenza is the second one this winter at long-term care home in the KTHR. Earlier this year, a similar outbreak occurred at Sasko Park Lodge in Tisdale. The KTHR would like to remind everyone that the best defense against influenza is frequent hand washing.

http://www.nipawinjournal.com/story.php?id=224557

http://www.abqtrib.com/albq/nw_local/article/0,2564,ALBQ_19858_4612924,00.html


Easter chicks could sicken

By ASSOCIATED PRESS
April 11, 2006

SANTA FE - State officials are discouraging the idea of giving baby chicks and ducklings as Easter gifts, pointing out that the birds can carry disease.

It's not bird flu that officials are afraid of, but salmonella, the bacteria most often associated with undercooked foods.

Last year 26 people from 15 states, including four New Mexicans, were infected with salmonella, largely caused by exposure to baby chicks. All the victims recovered.

Risk factors for people contracting salmonella include keeping the chicks inside the house and letting small children handle and snuggle with them, said Paul Ettestad, state public health veterinarian with the Department of Health.

"Some small children didn't handle the baby birds at all, but their parents did not wash their hands properly after handling the birds and gave the infection to their children indirectly," he said.

Dave Fly, deputy state veterinarian with the New Mexico Livestock Board, said the agency is asking feed stores to strongly discourage people from buying chicks as pets, especially if the families have young children.

"It is difficult to know if chicks are carrying salmonella because they will not usually show signs of illness," he said.

Early symptoms of salmonella include fever, diarrhea and abdominal pain, which develop one to three days after exposure to baby chicks and their droppings. Other symptoms could include nausea, chills or headaches.

Last year 26 people from 15 states, including four New Mexicans, were infected with salmonella, largely caused by exposure to baby chicks. All the victims recovered.

Click to expand...

Good Lord. Let's try to find some really obscure statistics then try to use them to scare people. I'm not talking about you AF, but the wholly retarded person at the AP who thought that this was newsworthy. Twenty six sick people, spread over 16 states OVER THE COURSE OF A **YEAR** all of whom recovered does not an epidemic make... and it sure as hell isn't the health crisis they imply here.

People, my daughter died of a DPT vaccine reaction. According to the official reports from the FDA not long after she died, there are about 400 reported vaccine deaths per year. They also stated that they think that only one in ten are properly reported. Most of them are classified as SIDS or other causes of death.

Let's see... if their numbers are right that's 4,000 babies a year with vaccine-related deaths in the US. Based on the word "death", we'll assume that NONE of them recovered.

If we want to warn people about dangers to their kids, I can think of scarier things than baby chicks.

PCViking, excellent posts, but we won't know till it crosses our lawns. I do see warning signs here, IMHO, and I'm going out on a limb on this, but I don't feel I'm wrong, but it's already crossed over here and WHO and CDC are being silent till the SHTF...Just my thoughts in the healthcare profession.

Finally a case for evolution that doesn't come out of a textbook. God is planning to punish the people who don't believe in evolution with a plague. A little irony there.

Hmmmmm

Fuzzychick said:

IMHO, and I'm going out on a limb on this, but I don't feel I'm wrong, but it's already crossed over here and WHO and CDC are being silent till the SHTF...Just my thoughts in the healthcare profession.

Click to expand...

Fuzzy, my concern too... It's well documented that it's sporeading at an alarming rate... and even Navarro (the UN guy) says it's it spreading at 'lightning speed'. Yet, hard news is getting harder and harder to come by... Hmmmmm

Afghanistan

Afghanistan confirms H5N1 flu in third province​

(Reuters)

13 April 2006


KABUL - Afghanistan has confirmed the H5N1 bird flu virus in a third province and suspects it has been found in two more, a UN Food and Agriculture Organisation official said on Thursday.

Afghanistan confirmed last month the virus had been found in samples from birds in Kabul province, and the eastern province of Nangarhar.

No human cases have been found.

Test results from an FAO laboratory in Italy have confirmed the presence of the virus in birds from Logar province, south of Kabul, said FAO spokesman Assadullah Azahari.

Initial test results also indicated the virus had probably spread to Parwan and Herat provinces, both to the west of Kabul.

“The first results showed H5N1 but we need more tests to confirm that,” Azahari said of the samples from those provinces.

The tests on 103 samples in all found no evidence of H5N1 in Paktia and Kunar provinces in the east, he said.

“Many of the results were negative,” Azahari said.

Poultry has been culled and quarantine measures introduced in effected areas but the spread of the virus among poultry is a big worry in a country where many farmers and traders are illiterate and have little knowledge of the disease.

Authorities have yet to produce much public information on the danger.

Scientists fear the virus could mutate into a form that jumps easily between people and starts a global flu pandemic. While only 194 people are known to have been infected so far worldwide, 109 have died.

However, scientists say millions of people could be infected in a human pandemic but with a much lower mortality rate.

Afghanistan’s basic veterinary and health sectors, difficult terrain and an insurgency in some areas are likely to complicate efforts to fight the flu if it spreads to people.

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/Display...tinent_April499.xml&section=subcontinent&col=

Got this from C.E. forum. Thought this quote was interesting and worthy of posting:


'The most probable scenario, believes the chief inspector, will be evolution of the pandemic in spring-summer time. “All the pandemics of the last millennium started exactly at that period,” reminded Onishchenko.'






http://www.regnum.ru/english/618809.html


Russian chief sanitary inspector: Bird flu poses threat to 50 million Russians



In case of bird flu pandemic in Russia about 45-50 million people will be infected by it. According to Russian Chief Sanitary Inspector Gennady Onishchenko, about 6 million people in case of pandemic will suffer from the illness in its severe form; 1 million of them will need hospitalization. “We will need 170,000 doctors for it,” Onishchenko is quoted as saying.

The most probable scenario, believes the chief inspector, will be evolution of the pandemic in spring-summer time. “All the pandemics of the last millennium started exactly at that period,” reminded Onishchenko.

Onishchenko called distressing prediction for 2006, reports newsru.com. “Actually, the whole our southern border will be more or less affected by epizootic demonstrations,” he noted stressing that far not all the regions have established agencies to fight bird flu and elaborated complex action plans.

The chief sanitary inspector also pointed out that since the end of 2003 bird flu among humans has been registered in 51 countries. Overall, 190 cases of the illness were registered, 107 of them resulting in a lethal outcome.
l

In doing my daily research on BF articles, I am troubled at what I am finding. Ever since the discovery of H5N1 in Scotland, the mood and content of the articles, as well as what the experts are saying, have changed: Don't worry, don't panic.....NO BIG DEAL!! What a total flip-flop !!!! It makes me want to puke!

Here are just a few titles of some of the articles.....

'Don't Panic over Bird Flu'

'Nothing to fear from outbreak of bird flu'

'Expert: Prepare, but tond't worry to much about bird flu'

'Bird Flu threat downplayed'

'Avian Flu: this is not 1918'

"Lot has to happen for bird flu threat to explode'


Meanwhile, bird flu continues to march forward in birds and humans.......

Computing project targets bird flu
Research institute harnesses distributed computing to investigate drug treatments for avian influenza​

By Jeremy Kirk, IDG News Service

April 13, 2006
A research institute is harnessing the power of thousands of computers over the Internet to investigate potential drug treatments for deadly avian influenza.

The Rothberg Institute for Childhood Diseases, based on Guilford, Connecticut, said Thursday it had detailed the first mission for volunteers participating in the distributed computing project.

Volunteers download a screen saver program that simulates the binding of drug molecules with proteins -- referred to as "targets" -- in avian flu, the institute said.

The screen saver, which is visible in a computer's program tray, kicks in when the computer is idle, the institute said. The institute likens the process to hunting through a batch of keys -- meaning the drugs -- to find the right one that fits a protein in the virus.

The results are sent back to the Rothberg Institute when the computer is connected to the Internet.

The institute said distributed computing allows for the deployment of new targets to tens of thousands of computers running the program, collectively called the Drug Design and Optimization Lab (D2OL), within minutes.

The institute said 80,000 volunteers in 93 countries are participating in the project so far.

The institute said the first avian flu target is the H5N1 neuraminidase, which aids in the spread of the disease. Avian Influenza A, also known as H5N1, is the most dangerous one that humans have contracted so far, the institute said.

Officials fear H5N1 is the most likely one to mutate into a form that humans could contract more easily. So far, human-to-human infections have been rare, the institute said.

Governments have ordered widespread culls of chickens in Europe and Asia to halt the spread, but it's believed migrating birds have brought the disease to new areas.

http://www.infoworld.com/article/06...rticle/06/04/13/77408_HNbirdfluproject_1.html

dead birds don't fly

A point was made last night on Coast 2 Coast by Dr. Tenpenny - sick birds don't fly far, so they aren't going to migrate and infect birds thousands of miles away, and even better - dead birds don't fly at all - if it's as deadly to birds as the authorities would like us to believe, then how are we getting this vast migration of sick and dying birds to carry the infection from one place to another?

Kind of lke the Mexican march stuff, there's something else going on here, and most of what's being handed out is either not truthful or so warped that it might as well be a lie.

AnnCats - Its the good Dr Tenpenny that failed to nail it.

The spread of H5N1 is scientifically documented based on genetic analysis of samples taken over time.

Asymtomatic birds are carriers but show no signs of the sickness. This lack of symtoms is most prevalent in migratory water fowl. Several species of ducks and geese can carry H5N1 deep in their guts and shed virus for weeks with no signs of illness.


Spend some time researching here: http://www.recombinomics.com pay attention to the map that shows the spread over time.


There is no need to suspect a conspiracy when natural cause and effect is more than sufficient as an explanation.

AnnCats said:

A point was made last night on Coast 2 Coast by Dr. Tenpenny - sick birds don't fly far, so they aren't going to migrate and infect birds thousands of miles away, and even better - dead birds don't fly at all - if it's as deadly to birds as the authorities would like us to believe, then how are we getting this vast migration of sick and dying birds to carry the infection from one place to another?

Kind of lke the Mexican march stuff, there's something else going on here, and most of what's being handed out is either not truthful or so warped that it might as well be a lie.

Click to expand...

yep Hollywood

This is probably a dupe, but worth repeating.


H5N1 Bird Flu Familial Cluster in Azerbaijan Grows Again

Recombinomics Commentary
April 11, 2006

Today WHO disclosed that another person (17F) related to several H5N1 positive patients in Azerbaijan, has also tested positive for H5N1 bird flu. The latest disclosure raises the number of relatives or close friend who were H5N1 positive to 7, representing 5 families.

The index case (17F) died on February 23. Initially she was thought to have died from respiratory complications associated with lung cancer. However, the initial WHO report failed to indicate that she was a first cousin of the second confirmed H5N1 fatality (20F) who died March 3. Her close friend (17F) died March 8 and her brother (16M) died March 10. Thus, the first 4 H5N1 positive cases in the community died, and all were related or neighbors.

The latest report indicates that two more relatives developed symptoms on March 11, after the first four had died. In addition, a sister (16F) of one of the discharged patients (15F) also was H5N1 positive in local tests.

Thus, there were 7 patients who were H5N1 positive and closely linked, although the disease onset dates were spread over a period of more than a month. The extended time frame makes a common source unlikely, although WHO initially speculated that the cases were linked to feather plucking of dead wild birds.

These cases are similar to the large and extended clusters in nearby eastern Turkey and raise questions about genetic alterations such as S227N in the receptor binding domain. S227N was detected in the index case in Turkey, and some reports suggest that H5N1 from the sister also had S227N.

Although the latest WHO update indicated additional cases in Azerbaijan were not found, H5N1 migrating back north from Africa could bring or create more H5N1 with S227N, resulting in more large clusters and more efficient human-to-human transmissions,

Good primer on H5N1 and Preparedness from International Association of Fire Fighters

http://www.iaff.org/safe/content/Avian Flu/Pan Flu Final.htm

Bill P, thanks for the info: good link.
And thanks to all who post about bird flu and the possibilities.

Yep the whole "non threatening" bird flu situation just cruises along on that ole pandemic highway.

You know you are #$%^^ when you see headlines like the ones listed. For the record, the bird flu is in, IMHO, the final pre pandemic phase. this phase will last till fall, our seasons, and then break out with a vengence.

And considering I am just now getting over whatever I had, a month long illness, I am not amused by any soothing comments by TPTB. They have proven repeatedly they have no idea what they are talking about.

Up here in Portland/Vancover we are dealing with mass outbreaks of several different flus, virus, bacteria etc. all of this in a "pre" bird flu pandemic phase. The system simply will collapse when we start to get even a few hundred bird flu cases.

There is so much NEGATIVE ENERGY on planet Earth right now I am completely stunned. How anyone can think we will make it as a culture in the USA or even as a planet the next 50 years is totally beyond me.

Thanks for the hard work and info all.....

but did anyone else notice in the Firefighter link above that they are recommending as a MINIMUM air respirator/filters of at least P-100 !!!!

Maybe they are recommending a higher level of protection since they will probably be dealing with/handling infected people a lot more than the average person.... but are my N-95s good for just the average joe-six-pack (meaning me)?

"Wherever we find the virus we expect to find human cases. It is highly pathogenic,"

Bird flu deaths increase

As another victim falls prey to avian flu, Reem Leila reports on the inadequacies of the national awareness campaign to combat the disease ​

Last week 18-year-old Samah Abdel-Ghaffar from Menoufiya province, north of Cairo, was named as Egypt's 12th victim of bird flu. Her condition is stable, reported Ministry of Health spokesman Abdel-Rahman Shaheen, and members of her family are currently being tested to see if they, too, are infected. Abdel-Ghaffar is thought to have contracted the virus after regularly handling infected birds.

The deadly H5N1 strain of avian influenza has claimed the lives of three Egyptians. Iman Mohamed Abdel-Gawwad, a 16-year-old girl from Menoufiya, is the latest victim to succumb to the deadly virus. She died after being rushed to hospital last week suffering from high fever and shortness of breath.

"Wherever we find the virus we expect to find human cases. It is highly pathogenic," said Shaheen. "Transmission from poultry to humans is increasing because people continue to be exposed to infected birds and their droppings. It is essential that people change the way they behave and interact with poultry, to the extent of rearing birds within their homes."

According to figures released by the World Health Organisation (WHO) the H5N1 strain of bird flu has killed at least 109 people worldwide, though experts think the real figure is higher given that many cases are likely to go unreported.

The WHO remains concerned that the human toll has reached triple figures in a relatively short period of time.

"Women, who make up all three of Egypt's fatalities, are often responsible for slaughtering and cooking domestic poultry, and the government has called for greater awareness about bird flu among women who can then protect themselves and their families," says Hassan Al-Bushra, WHO regional adviser for communicable disease surveillance.

While the majority of human cases have occurred in the Far East and China, where the epidemic first broke out in 2003, Egypt has been among the worst affected countries in the new wave of westward spreading infections.

While H5N1 remains, for the time being, an animal disease, that it could mutate into a form that can be spread between humans remains a very real danger. That danger grows the longer people continue to come into contact with infected poultry, allowing the virus an opportunity to combine with existing influenza viruses and develop a form that can be spread from person to person. Should this happen the results will be disastrous.

"We predict that an influenza pandemic, which could cross the world in about three months, could end up killing hundreds of thousands of people," said Al-Bushra. "The urgent need to contain bird flu relates more to preventing the outbreak of a future pandemic rather than to H5N1 itself. We are urging the continued implementation of all appropriate recommendations. While there was a slight break in the frequency of awareness campaigns prior to the detection of the first human infections in Egypt, perhaps in a bid to calm the population, it is now clear that we can afford no more lapses.

"We are encouraging the development of non-pharmaceutical intervention, including better hygiene and sanitation practices. As for potentially infected areas, they must be cordoned off and people should stay away, however low they deem the risk to be. Listen to your governments and implement the recommendations. A health crisis such as this is no time for mistrust," added Al-Bushra.

Some experts have accused the government of inadequate planning. Bird flu was first detected in Egypt in February, and the first human infection was reported by mid- March. And although health officials are endeavouring to enforce preventive measures they are incapable of ensuring they are strictly implemented.

"Government planning is random, and it is using the wrong vaccine to combat the virus," said Talaat Khatib, professor of veterinary medicine at Assiut University.

"US scientists have already confirmed the H5N1 virus has evolved into two genetically distinct strains, potentially increasing the risk to humans," revealed Khatib, who believes the public awareness campaigns to date have been too weak. Egypt should, he says, have begun to plan its preventative measures when the virus was reported in Turkey in late December.

In Egypt, where poverty and illiteracy rates are high and urban rooftop and backyard rearing of poultry have long been a way of life, a more systematic approach to monitoring the disease needs to be put in place.

Saber Abdel-Aziz Galal, Ministry of Agriculture official in charge of poultry infections, said the increase in human cases had been expected. "People do not respect instructions from the authorities," he said. "They consider poultry capital for which it is worth risking their health, and the health of their neighbours."

http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2006/790/eg33.htm

PCV

Creationists often claim that evolution is just a theory since no one has ever observed it. Being generally a slow process, it is hard to catch evolution in action. But it isn't always slow.

Click to expand...

Hehehe Thanks for the chuckle. We witness change within "kinds" all the time. Wake me up when it turns into a fully functional cell or bacteria. I find a worm turning into a butterfly much more impressive, but that's already in it's DNA. Viruses aren't usually even considered "living organisms". It's the same "proof" they've been peddling all along - "we witness micro change, therefore macro change must also be true." A truth leading to an assumption is not proof.

Wrong. Presumptuous. You can call it "evolution" if you like, but it's still micro - you have to accept that there is and always has been natural boundaries at play.

RE: Masks v Respirators

Masks do not seal to the face. Therefore they filter less than 100% of the incoming and outgoing respiration. Air (and germs) can leak around the sides of the mask.

Respirators are smoke tested with acrid smoke to make sure that you dont inhale sub micron particles. Respirators have a silcone seal to the face so that all respiration is filtered.

(IMO only) the N-95 mask do more to protect others from the wearer than they protect the wearer from others.

I have both N-95, P-100 and smoke fit respirators as I occassionaly am exposed to micron sized respirable silica in my job apotential cuase of silicosis.

In a real SHTF scenario, my plan is not to go out at all for at least 6-8 weeks, I can go longer if necessary (although I will have to go outside to spring fed creek for water eventually) depending on circumstances. Then I will go out with maximum protection, practice extreme social distancing and practice rigid decontamination protocols before returing to safe mode.

Link to tomorrows (4/14) Bird Flu thread: http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=193404