04/05 | Wildlife experts hope to expand surveillance for H5N1 in migratory birds

Link to yesterday's thread: http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=192209

Since January, 2004 WHO has reported human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) in the following countries:

* East Asia and the Pacific:
o Cambodia
o China
o Indonesia
o Thailand
o Vietnam

* Europe & Eurasia:
o Azerbaijan
(see update)
o Turkey

* Near East:
o Egypt
o Iraq

For additional information about these reports, visit the
World Health Organization Web Site.

Updated April 3, 2006

Since December 2003, avian influenza A (H5N1) infections in poultry or wild birds have been reported in the following countries:

* Africa:
o Cameroon
o Niger
o Nigeria

* East Asia & the Pacific:
o Cambodia
o China
o Hong Kong (SARPRC)
o Indonesia
o Japan
o Laos
o Malaysia
o Mongolia
o Myanmar (Burma)
o Thailand
o Vietnam

* South Asia:
o Afghanistan
o India
o Kazakhstan
o Pakistan (H5)

* Near East:
o Egypt
o Iraq (H5)
o Iran
o Israel
o Jordan

* Europe & Eurasia:
o Albania
o Austria
o Azerbaijan
o Bosnia & Herzegovina
o Bulgaria
o Croatia
o Czech Republic (H5)
o Denmark
o France
o Georgia
o Germany
o Greece
o Hungary
o Italy
o Poland
o Romania
o Russia
o Serbia & Montenegro
o Slovak Republic
o Slovenia
o Sweden
o Switzerland
o Turkey
o Ukraine

For additional information about these reports, visit the
World Organization for Animal Health Web Site.

Updated April 4, 2006

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/current.htm

WHO, Avian Flu Timeline in .pdf: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/timeline.pdf

Wildlife experts hope to expand surveillance for H5N1 in migratory birds​

TORONTO (CP) - Canadian wildlife experts hope to significantly expand surveillance of migratory birds this year, looking for evidence of whether the worrisome Asian H5N1 avian flu virus has found its way to this continent.

A blueprint for a surveillance plan, which still requires government funding approval, would see twice the number of live birds tested for avian flu viruses compared with last year, with a major focus on birds travelling on flyways from the eastern Arctic to Central and Eastern Canada.

"Due diligence would require that we should be vigilant about the potential arrival of this virus in North America," said Dr. Ted Leighton, executive director of the Canadian Co-operative Wildlife Health Centre, the lead partner on the surveillance program.

"In my opinion, (it's) far more likely by human agency than by wild birds, but one cannot discount the possibility" that the virus could reach Canada that way, said Leighton, who also teaches at the University of Saskatchewan.

While U.S. political figures have deemed it virtually inevitable that migratory birds will bring the virus to North America, avian flu experts are not so certain. Long-term study suggests there is little intermingling of the viruses carried by birds that travel the Eurasian flyways and those that migrate in the Americas.

But H5N1 has defied flu dogma before, and at this point few experts would be willing to be definitive about what it can and cannot do.

"It's going to be anybody's guess," Dr. David Halvorson, an avian influenza specialist at the University of Minnesota, said of what bird surveillance in North America will turn up this year.

"This thing has been in China and Southeast Asia for 10 years and nothing has shown up here in those 10 years, so I don't think it's any more or less likely to happen this year," he said.

"But that doesn't mean it won't happen. We have no way of knowing."

The Canadian plan is designed to complement a vastly more ambitious American wild bird surveillance program, which aims to collect samples from between 75,000 and 100,000 migratory birds.

The U.S. program is expected to have a heavy focus on large breeding grounds in Alaska where birds that travel on Eurasian flyways are known to intersect with birds from North and South America.

"In terms of contributing to continental alertness, a focus by Canada on the eastern Arctic and transatlantic (flyways) probably makes more sense that duplicating, more or less, what the Americans might be doing in the northwest," Leighton said.

"So the direction of planning right now is to try to make the coverage of the eastern Arctic and the East Coast and the east of centre parts of the country the main focus."

Last year's surveillance program in Canada took samples from almost 4,600 wild ducks across Canada. That survey found a number of H5 avian flu viruses, including H5N1s, but they were from the American family of the viruses, and were not the dangerous form that has emerged from Asia.

This year the plan would see about double the number of live birds sampled and would add a dead bird surveillance component as well. Dead birds picked up by the program will be tested for avian flu viruses; if virus is found, autopsies will be done to determine whether the virus or something else was the cause of death, Leighton said.

On the live bird side, the intent is to expand beyond ducks to other species - shore birds like the Arctic tern and the semipalmated sandpiper, found in the marshes along the Bay of Fundy. Wild geese are also on the agenda.

"There's a paucity of information about wild geese and we need to start building up our information of what wild geese might be carrying," Leighton said.

While some efforts will be made to take samples from nesting birds in the spring, most of the work will take place in the late summer and fall, when juvenile birds - those most vulnerable to avian influenza viruses - are getting ready to fly south.

"There are two reasons to sample in the fall. One is we can get our hands on the birds, and the second is if they're bringing something nasty from the North, that's when we'll find it," Leighton said.

Halvorson suggested those who authorize these types of surveillance programs need plans of their own - for how to handle the news should the Asian H5N1 virus be detected.

"When it comes to surveillance, people say: 'Well, before you start surveillance you have to know what you're going to do if you find something positive,' " he said from Minneapolis.

"So here you go, we're going to run all over the northern half of this hemisphere searching for this virus and then we're going to find it. And then what are we going to do?"

http://www.mytelus.com/news/article.do?pageID=cp_health_home&articleID=2218627

UN wants China to teach world about bird flu​

(AFP)
Updated: 2006-04-05 07:17

The United Nations' top official on bird flu urged China to share its experience with other countries on how to tackle the disease.

Speaking at the end of his third visit to China as UN coordinator for avian influenza, David Nabarro said he had tried to persuade Chinese officials that the knowledge and experience they gained fighting bird flu could help the rest of the world.

"Perhaps the most important thing that I would wish to happen is that Chinese officials at all levels who have been working on this issue for many, many months ... have a chance to interact with colleagues from governments who are just beginning to struggle, to share with them some of the trials and tribulations they have faced," Nabarro told reporters.

China had the world's largest poultry population, with 20 percent of the global total, UN officials said.

It had an estimated 50 percent of the world's pigs and 90 percent of the world's geese, they said. The virus is carried in these animals as well as other poultry and wild migratory birds and is spread to humans through close contact.

China had also undertaken the world's biggest vaccination campaign, pledging to vaccinate all of its 14 billion poultry.

"I think there's a lot that the world can learn from China," Julie Hall, the UN coordinator for avian influenza in China, told the same news conference.

Nabarro visited China to take stock of what it has done and persuade it to contribute its expertise and information to the global bird flu fight. He said he was "pretty satisfied" with the government's handling of the disease.

But he added: "It's a long haul. This virus is not going to disappear suddenly."

Nabarro pointed to the "enormously rapid" spread of the H5N1 bird flu virus in the past three months, including to Africa, Europe and the Middle East, which made international cooperation crucial.

He noted that while 15 countries reported bird flu outbreaks in the past two and a half years, the figure increased to 30 countries in the past two and a half months.

China has agreed to share a batch of virus samples from its poultry outbreaks. The shipping process and logistics were being worked out. Officials expected the samples to be sent within days.

UN officials, however, emphasized they would like to see China share more consistently, especially as the virus was changing and scientists need to study it and find answers to many unanswered questions.

"We need to share information and samples in a timely manner, in a regular manner and also globally," said Henk Bekedam, the World Health Organization's China representative.

China has reported 11 deaths from bird flu out of 16 human infections and 34 outbreaks of bird flu among poultry since the beginning of last year.

No poultry outbreaks have been reported in China since late February. The warmer weather, the poultry vaccination campaign and precautionary measures may have contributed to fewer outbreaks, said Hall, the UN coordinator.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2006-04/05/content_560115.htm

Senate panel passes emergency funding bill​

Tue Apr 4, 2006 8:02 PM ET

By Richard Cowan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A U.S. Senate committee on Tuesday, ignoring skyrocketing federal budget deficits, piled money onto a spending bill for war and hurricane rebuilding to produce an election-year measure that would spend about $107 billion.

Republicans and Democrats on the Senate Appropriations Committee also eagerly approved more federal aid for farmers, added $2.3 billion to fight a possible avian flu pandemic, voted to give more aid to the U.S. fishing industry hurt by Hurricane Katrina and spread dollars for other interests.

...
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsA...KOC_0_US-CONGRESS-SPENDING.xml&archived=False

Bird flu: young at most risk​

By Julie Robotham Medical Editor
March 2, 2006

YOUNG, healthy people are more likely to succumb to bird flu, raising fears that a pandemic may disproportionately kill children and those in early adulthood.

Tony Cunningham, the director of the Westmead Millennium Institute for Medical Research, said an analysis of Asian cases showed that healthy people apparently mounted such a powerful immune response that the resulting inflammation could cause death by overwhelming their lungs and other organs.

He called lung failure, "the most feared complication of bird flu … unless they are supported in intensive care the patient will die very quickly indeed".

Examination of human cases of the H5N1 bird flu in Asia since 2003 showed the virus had killed 90 per cent of infected children under the age of 15, Professor Cunningham told a scientific briefing in Sydney yesterday.

This was the opposite of ordinary seasonal flu, in which older people and others with weakened immunity were more likely to become severely ill.

He said in some people exposure to H5N1 provoked a rapid and massive proliferation of cytokines - a form of inflammation that is usually protective.

It was likely some people were genetically predisposed to such a "cytokine storm" reaction, Professor Cunningham said. It might be possible to treat them with new anti-inflammatory drugs that are used in conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn's disease, but this approach had not yet been studied.

Fears of a bird flu pandemic among humans rose this week after the discovery that a cat had become infected in Germany.

Although the infection was relatively unlikely to spread from cats to humans, any transmission between species was of concern, said Ian Barr, the deputy director of the Melbourne-based World Health Organisation's Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza.

Dr Barr told the meeting H5N1 probably caused more serious disease "than any flu virus we have ever seen, possibly with the exception of the 1918 [outbreak]".

In the 1918 pandemic, a bird flu virus mutated and spread directly between people - the scenario most feared now. In 1957 and 1958, a bird virus combined with elements of human flu but it was less likely to be fatal.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/health/bird-flu-young-at-most-risk/2006/03/01/1141191732196.html#

Cambodia

Bird flu kills 12-year-old in Cambodia​

18 minutes ago

Bird flu has killed a 12-year-old boy in Cambodia, the impoverished Southeast Asian nation's sixth victim, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Wednesday.

The boy, from the southeastern province of Prey Veng, abutting Vietnam, died on Tuesday night, said Michael O'Leary, the WHO representative in Phnom Penh.

He said a laboratory in the capital confirmed the boy was infected with the H5N1 avian flu virus.

Six Cambodians have died of bird flu since the H5N1 virus first emerged in Southeast Asia in late 2003. The 12-year-old's death is the second this year.

Last month, a 3-year-old girl died of the disease. The girl lived in a village in Kampong Speu province about 40 miles (60 km) west of Phnom Penh.

Most Cambodian outbreaks have occurred in provinces abutting Vietnam, which remains the hardest hit country in terms of human deaths, but Kampong Speu is in the middle of the country, showing the virus was spreading.

Before the latest death, 191 people were known to have been infected with H5N1 worldwide since 2003, of whom 108 had died, the WHO has said.

Last week, a government minister said tests confirmed the H5N1 virus in dead ducks near Cambodia's border with Vietnam.

"This makes us worried that the virus will spread to other areas because of our poor health system and bad communications," Deputy Agriculture Minister Yim Vanthoeun told Reuters last Thursday.

The H5N1 virus remains mainly a disease of poultry, but could spark a pandemic in which millions could die if it mutates into a form that spreads easily from person to person, the WHO says.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060405/ts_nm/birdflu_cambodia_dc

Bird flu could stagger insurance companies
An industry group says a pandemic like the one in 1918 would cost $133 billion in U.S. claims.​

Jerry W. Jackson | Sentinel Staff Writer
Posted April 5, 2006

In a typical year, 36,000 Americans die from common influenza strains. U.S. life-insurance companies incorporate those projected deaths into their grim calculations to remain profitable.

But if the bird flu starts spreading person to person and sparks a global pandemic, as some experts fear, deaths would soar. And if it gets as bad as the 1918 killer flu, it would cost insurance companies a staggering $133 billion in U.S. claims alone, according to estimates by the Insurance Information Institute, a trade group.

"I don't want to be alarmist, but it could be worse than that," Steven Weisbart, chief economist for the New York-based institute, said in an interview Tuesday.

The death rate for the 1918 Spanish flu was not as high as the death rate among the small number of humans who have already contracted bird flu, he said, so modeling on the 1918 experience might understate the insurance industry's costs.

Many experts say the bird flu's death rate almost certainly would drop from its apparent rate of about 50 percent if the disease begins spreading from person to person, but no one knows what the rate would eventually prove to be.

Bird flu, in fact, may never become transmissible among humans -- most strains of avian influenza never do -- but Weisbart said insurance companies should plan for a pandemic just as other businesses and the medical community are doing.

There appear to be many valid reasons international health experts are sounding alarms, he said, over the current bird flu -- type A, H5N1 strain. But life insurers, which are vulnerable to economic hits from catastrophes of all types, do not seem to be buying more reinsurance or adding to their reserves because of the flu, which has spread from Southeast Asia to Europe in recent months, Weisbart said.

"There's no evidence it's going up," Weisbart said of the companies' reinsurance levels and loss reserves. "From what I can tell, their attention has been on the business-operation side."

Insurance companies, like most large businesses pondering the awful consequences of a pandemic, which many experts says is statistically overdue, are taking steps to stay in business with a smaller staff.

Many workers will fall ill or remain home to avoid exposure. "They will need someone to keep paying [death] claims," Weisbart said of insurance companies.

New York Life Insurance Co. spokesman Jorge Vargas said Tuesday the New York-based company and its international operations are preparing for a pandemic. The company is encouraging New York Life operations to make business-continuity decisions at the local level, with local authorities, wherever they are in the world, Vargas said.

It's important for the company to try to do everything possible to maintain operations in the midst of a major flu outbreak, he said, particularly in communicating "with [our] customers, and [insurance] agents and employees."

But Vargas said New York Life is not boosting its reinsurance, which insurers can buy to buffer against losses that they may be unable to handle. Nor is it adding to reserves.

"We are able to pay all claims, if this happens," Vargas said of a flu pandemic. "We don't envision any change at this time. We don't envision any modification in our underwriting or reinsurance [levels], as of today."

Industry experts say reinsurance specifically for bird flu is virtually nonexistent. And reinsurance for all perils is expensive. But big reinsurers, looking at the statistics and odds, are beefing up their own reserves in case of a bird-flu pandemic.

Weisbart said that, if the flu kills at the more moderate rate of the 1957 and 1968 outbreaks, it would cost insurers an extra $31 billion. In any case, he said, insurers would take a financial hit, many would be forced into the capital markets, and weak ones would fail.

There's good news for the industry in the report: If a pandemic occurs and follows the pattern of the 1918 outbreak, life insurers would sell a whole lot of new policies once the deaths subside.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/busi...5,0,5066940.story?coll=orl-business-headlines

Germany's first case of bird flu in domestic poultry confirmed​

http://www.eecho.ie/news/bstory.asp?j=146528300&p=y465z888x&n=146528909

05/04/2006 - 12:14:19

German authorities have confirmed the country’s first case of the deadly H5N1 bird flu strain in domestic poultry, the Social Affairs Ministry of the state of Saxony said today.

The infected birds were found earlier this week on a poultry farm near Leipzig.

More than 10,000 animals already have been slaughtered as a precaution there, the ministry said.

DJ Bird Flu Registered In 67 Russian Locations In Jan-March​

http://framehosting.dowjonesnews.com/sample/samplestory.asp?StoryID=2006040409540008&Take=1

MOSCOW (Dow Jones)--In the first quarter of this year bird flu was registered in 67 locations in 10 southern regions in Russia, according to the agriculture ministry.

The ministry said the virus still persisted in 15 locations, and has been eradicated in the other 52 locations.

Of those that linger, nine are in the Krasnodar region, four are in Dagestan, and there is one each in Stavropol and Volgograd.

The total number of birds that died or were culled is currently at 1.352 million.

To date, 12.111 million poultry had been vaccinated.

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<B><center><font size=+1 color=red>British fears over pandemic</font>

By JOE CHURCHER
04apr06
<A href="http://www.theadvertiser.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5936,18687977%255E912,00.html">www.theadvertiser.news.com</a></center>
MASS burials are part of plans by the British Home Office to handle a possible avian flu pandemic.

A "prudent" worst-case assessment suggested 320,000 could die in the UK if the H5N1 virus mutated into a form contagious to humans, according to a confidential report seen by the Sunday Times. </b>

That would lead to delays of up to 17 weeks in burying or cremating victims, the document - said to have been discussed by a cabinet committee - says.

It warns that the prospect of "common burial" would stir up images of the mass pits used to bury victims of the Great Plague in 1665.

But, in fact, it "might involve a large number of coffins buried in the same place at the same time, in such a way that allowed for individual graves to be marked".









Town halls - the report suggests - could deal with what it terms a "base case" of 48,000 deaths in England and Wales in a 15-week pandemic.

Should the outbreak kill 2.5 per cent of those who contract the flu, it warns, "no matter what emergency arrangements are put in place, there are likely to be substantially more deaths than can be managed within current timescales". Titled Managing Excess Deaths in an Influenza Pandemic and dated March 22, the document says vaccines would not be available - at least for "the first wave" of a pandemic - and would not be a "silver bullet".

Bird flu has already forced the slaughter of millions of birds across three continents since the deadly H5N1 strain emerged three years ago.

More than 100 humans have also been killed by it - all people who had been in close contact with infected birds.

A pandemic would only become a possibility if the strain was able to mutate into a form that could be spread between humans.

Writing in the British Medical Journal, health experts said the Government's plans for dealing with a flu pandemic did not go far enough.

Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson said preparing for a pandemic was "a top priority" and "strong plans" were in place to respond.

Those plans include building a stockpile of 14.6 million doses of anti-viral drugs to treat those who fall ill during a pandemic.

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<B><center>Britian

<font size=+1 color=brown>Plans in place to deal with potentially lethal disease</font>

Apr 4 2006
<A href="http://icstafford.icnetwork.co.uk/news/localnews/tm_objectid=16907440%26method=full%26siteid=87875%26headline=plans%2din%2dplace%2dto%2ddeal%2dwith%2dpotentially%2dlethal%2ddisease%2d-name_page.html">icstafford.icnet.co.uk</a></center>
Council bosses have told the public not to panic after they issued guidelines in preparation for a possible bird flu outbreak in the borough.

Avian flu is currently affecting wild birds in Europe - the latest sighting was in France last month. The virus can spread to humans and in some cases has proved fatal.
</b>
But now the Post can reveal Staffordshire County Council's Animal Health Unit has been working to ensure Stafford and the rest of the county are prepared to deal with the potentially lethal disease.

The Department for Environment, Food and Regional Affairs (DEFRA) has been compiling a national register of places where more than 50 birds are kept so protection measures can be put in place if any birds are found to be infected with the H5N1 bird flu virus.

Susan Woodward, the county council's cabinet member for social care and health, said that after acting with DEFRA they had developed detailed plans to deal with any outbreak, but stressed it was important the public didn't become overly concerned.

She said: "We will quickly have controls in place that will minimise the spread of disease and protect poultry and other kept birds as well as safeguarding public health.

"It is of course important that people do not panic. However, the public is now being invited to be on the look out for, and report, unusual sightings of dead birds."

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<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Russia has first human flu death of this season</font>

04.04.2006, 23.09
<A href="http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=5804814&PageNum=0">www.itar-tass.com</a></center>
ST. PETERSBURG, April 4 (Itar-Tass) -- The first human flu death of this season in Russia has been registered in Chelyabinsk, a source at the National Flu Center in St. Petersburg told Itar-Tass on Tuesday.

An 18-year-old Chelyabinsk resident was taken to hospital with a severe form of human flu exacerbated with pneumonia. Three days later the patient with immune deficiency died. “Laboratory tests did not confirm H5N1 bird flu virus in his blood,” the source said. </b>

According to the center, a flu epidemic in Russia will linger until the end of this month.

The National Flu Center of the World Health Organization is monitoring cold and flu situation in 46 cities of Russia all the year round and exchanges virus samples and screening results with the WHO Geneva headquarters.

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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>The Bird Flu Pandemic Blues: Is the US Prepared for Outbreak?</font>

By Jim Kouri CPP
(04/05/2006)
<A href="http://www.americandaily.com/article/12852">www.americandaily.com</a></center>
With the immense media coverage of the Avian Bird Influenza, concern has been rising about United States preparedness to respond to vaccine shortages that could occur in future annual influenza seasons or during an influenza pandemic--a global influenza outbreak. </b>

Although the timing or extent of a future influenza pandemic cannot be predicted, studies suggest that its effect in the United States could be severe, and shortages of vaccine could occur which increases the danger Americans face. For the 2004-05 annual influenza season, the nation lost about half its expected influenza vaccine supply when one of two major manufacturers announced in October 2004 that it would not release any vaccine because of problems with the manufacture of the serum.

Recently, analysts from the General Accounting Office examined federal, state, and local actions taken in response to last year's shortage, including lessons learned from past problems. The nation's experience during the unexpected 2004-05 vaccine shortfall offers insights into some of the challenges that government at all levels will face in a serious or severe pandemic.

A number of lessons emerged from federal, state, and local responses to the 2004-05 influenza vaccine shortage that carry implications for handling future vaccine shortages in either an annual influenza season or a devastating influenza pandemic.

First, limited contingency planning slows response. At the start of the 2004-05 influenza season, when the supply shortfall became apparent, the nation lacked a contingency plan specifically to address severe shortages. The absence of such a plan led to delays and uncertainties on the part of state and local public health authorities on how best to ensure access to vaccine by individuals at high risk of severe influenza-related complications.

Second, a streamlined strategy to expedite vaccine availability are key to an effective response. During the 2004-05 shortage, for example, federal purchases of vaccine licensed for use in other countries but not the United States were not completed in time to meet peak demand. Some states' experience also highlighted the importance of methods of transferring available vaccine quickly and easily from one state to another.

Third, effective response requires clear and consistent communication. Consistency among federal, state, and local communications is critical for averting confusion. State and local health officials also emphasized the value of updated information when responding to changing circumstances, using diverse media to reach diverse audiences, and educating healthcare providers and the public about prevention alternatives.

Over the past five years, GAO has urged the Department of Health and Human Services to complete its plan to prepare for and response to an influenza pandemic. GAO has reported on the importance of planning to address critical issues such as how vaccine will be purchased and distributed; how population groups will be given priority for vaccination; and how federal resources should be deployed before the nation faces a pandemic. On November 2, 2005, HHS released its pandemic influenza plan, which is being examined by several government agencies including the GAO, Centers for Disease Control, Department of Homeland Security and others.

VACCINE FOR BIRD FLU

Initial testing showed the first U.S. vaccine against H5N1 bird flu virus is safe, but only partly protective, researchers reported Wednesday in The New England Journal of Medicine.

The vaccine sparked a protective immune response in 54 percent of the 451 volunteers who got two shots of the highest dose, which is 90 micrograms of antigen, 12 times the use in the regular winter flu shot.

The experimental bird flu vaccine sparked a slightly lower immune response in 70 percent of the recipients, but scientists could not determine whether such a response is protective.
Humans have never been exposed to the H5N1 bird flu virus, and it takes time for the immune system to ramp up to fight unique types of influenza, said lead researcher Dr. John Treanor of the University of Rochester in New York.The good news is that the vaccine seems to be safe, even at very high doses.

Researchers are giving the receivers a third dose to see if the vaccine would work better, while other studies are seeking to strengthen the effect of the vaccine at regular dose through adding immune-enhancing chemicals, alum or MF59.

The vaccine is made by a unit of Sanofi-Aventis and based on a version of H5N1 virus culled in Vietnam in 2004. It is unknown if the vaccine could partly protect from a slightly different version that emerged in Indonesia last year.

Sources: US General Accounting Office, Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control, Department of Homeland Security, the New England Journal of Medicine, National Association of Chiefs of Police Security Committee

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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Over 40 People Hospitalised in Azerbaijan</font>

5 April 2006 | 17:10
FOCUS News Agency
<A href="http://www.focus-fen.net/index.php?catid=142&newsid=85865&ch=0&datte=2006-04-05">www.focus-fen.net</a></center></b>
Bacu. Over 40 people were hospitalized in Azerbaijan with symptoms of bird flu, agency reports. Blood tests from the patients were sent to the lab in Great Britain in order to be discovered whether they were infected with the H5N1 virus. There are five victims of the bird flu who passed away in Azerbaijan so far.

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<B><center>WHO warns of `weakest link' in war on viruses

<font size=+0 color=red>Governments must support each other in the fight against bird flu, SARS and other emerging infectious diseases that may pose global threats to human health and economic prosperity, a World Health Organization official has said.</font>

Wednesday, April 05, 2006
<A href="http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?we_cat=2&art_id=15844&sid=7368222&con_type=1&d_str=20060405">www.thestandard.com.hk</a></center>
Governments must support each other in the fight against bird flu, SARS and other emerging infectious diseases that may pose global threats to human health and economic prosperity, a World Health Organization official has said.</b>

"With infectious diseases, we are only as strong as our weakest link," Henk Bekedam, the WHO's representative in Beijing, told Asia-Pacific officials Tuesday at the start of a two-day international conference on new diseases.

"If you do a good job over there, but if your neighboring country is not able to detect [diseases], you're still not safe. We need to support each other."

Officials from the United States, China and other countries are discussing ways to fight infectious diseases such as bird flu and SARS that have emerged in recent years.

The region's governments "have paid high attention to preventing and controlling emerging infectious diseases, yet the situation is still challenging," said Vice Health Minister Chen Xiaohong.

He cited SARS, which emerged in southern China in late 2001, as a reminder of the dangers of new, fast- spreading diseases. The disease killed nearly 800 people worldwide in weeks.

Every year, a new infectious disease emerges and countries need to be prepared to fight it while continuing to battle HIV/AIDS and avian influenza, he said.

"Globalization of economies has led to globalization of disease," Chen said. "It has exerted huge impacts on economies and international exchanges."

The best strategy to combat new diseases is through early detection and reporting by affected countries and the timely sharing of information, said Bekedam.

Bird flu, which resurfaced in Asia in 2003 and has already spread to the Middle East, Europe and Africa, killing at least 105 people, illustrates the need for governments to work closely together, he said.

"We know it takes government commitment to deal with it. It is bad for economies but if you don't deal with it, it's worse," Bekedam said.

A draft of a joint communique said Asia-Pacific governments are committed to focusing on prevention and control but also needed to beef up surveillance systems and emergency response plans.

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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>U.N.'s bird flu point man says H5N1 has spread to 30 new countries in three months </font>

MARGIE MASON, AP Medical Writer
April 4, 2006 10:20 AM
<A href="http://www.newspress.com/Top/Article/article.jsp?Section=WORLD&ID=564711667670582707">www.newspress.com</a></center>
BEIJING (AP) - The deadly bird flu virus has spread at lightning speed over the past three months, infecting birds in 30 new countries - double the number previously stricken since 2003, the U.N.'s bird flu point man said Tuesday.</b>

''This is a really serious global situation,'' Dr. David Nabarro the U.N.'s chief coordinator for avian influenza, told reporters in Beijing. ''During the last three months globally, there has been an enormous and rapid spread of H5N1.''

Thirty new countries and territories in Africa, Europe, the Indian subcontinent and the Middle East have reported H5N1 infections in birds this year, he said. That rapid acceleration compares with the previous two and half years, when only 15 countries - mostly in Asia - reported bird flu.

China was Nabarro's first stop on a tour that includes Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia - countries where the H5N1 virus is considered endemic in poultry stocks.

In Beijing, he met with Vice Premier Hui Liangyu, who heads the country's bird flu command center, along with officials from the ministries of health and agriculture. He said China has pledged full cooperation in working with the international community to help control the spread of the disease.

Nabarro added that some of the $1.9 billion pledged by the international community in January for bird flu and pandemic preparedness has started reaching countries hit hard by the virus.

''A lot of that money is now being spent in Indonesia, Vietnam Cambodia, countries in central and eastern Europe, Turkey, Nigeria and Central Asia,'' he said.

In addition, the World Bank recently signed off on a record-fast $50 million loan for Nigeria to battle bird flu, he said. Bank official Jacques Baudouy said earlier Tuesday that the funding came from money earmarked for the disease prior to the $1.9 billion pledge.

Meanwhile, a U.S. health expert attending a Beijing health conference called for more infectious disease research in Asian countries, and scientists need to more closely track changes in the H5N1 virus to prepare for a potential pandemic.

''I think of it as the earthquake in San Francisco. You know it's on the fault. You know it's going to occur, but you can't tell if it's going to occur this year or next year or the year after,'' said Dr. Roger Glass, the new director of the Fogarty International Center at the U.S. National Institutes of Health.

''But it's clearly going to happen and the only way you can prepare is to build your houses with structure,'' he said on the sidelines of a four-day conference launching the Disease Control Priorities Project, which includes three books focusing on cost-effective strategies for improving global health.

Also Tuesday, regional officials met at a separate symposium to discuss new infectious diseases as a follow-up to talks during last fall's Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.

Bird flu resurfaced in Asia in 2003 and has killed at least 108 people. It remains hard for humans to catch, but health experts fear it will mutate into a form easily spread among people, potentially sparking a pandemic.

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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>American College of Physicians 2006 Annual Session scheduled for Philadelphia</font>

April 6-8, 2006
<A href="http://framehosting.dowjonesnews.com/sample/samplestory.asp?StoryID=2006040319350015&Take=1">framehosting.dowjonesnews.com</a></center>
"The Health Care Response to Pandemic Influenza," a new policy paper from the American College of Physicians (ACP), that supports the U.S. Government's foresight in developing a national strategic response plan, will be presented at the American College of Physicians (ACP) Annual Session, April 6-8, in Philadelphia. The paper critiques the national preparedness plan and aims to boost the efforts of state and local leadership in addressing the threat of pandemic influenza, including avian flu, to public health. </b>
ACP, the nation's largest medical specialty society, will release its stance on developing a comprehensive and effective health care response that is critical to save lives, decrease illness, and avoid disruption to the economy. In order to achieve these goals, ACP believes that physicians in all health care settings, and particularly primary care physicians in non-hospital settings, must be fully integrated into the response plans.

ACP recommends that internists, who as primary care physicians represent the backbone of the healthcare system, play a critical role in the planning and strategy for addressing pandemic influenza or other public health crisis. Hands-on clinical training of internists should be implemented to address a public health crisis, such as pandemic influenza, ACP says.

A pandemic, ACP warns, will place extraordinary and sustained demands on the U.S. health care system. It will require all non-hospital-based health care providers, internists and family practice providers in particular, to be prepared to counsel, diagnose, treat and monitor patients outside of hospital settings in order to decrease the likelihood of surges that would overwhelm hospital capacity.

ACP supports strengthening public health emergency preparedness efforts through a number of practical recommendations.


Press Briefing - Friday, April 7, 2006 from 10:30 AM to 11:15 AM

A press briefing will be held at the ACP Annual Session in Room 105A at the Pennsylvania Convention Center where ACP leaders will discuss the issues surrounding a possible public health crisis. Medical/health reporters and editors are encouraged to register for press credentials ASAP by visiting http://www.acponline.org/college/pressroom/as_pressreg06.htm. Press credentials are subject to conditions of the ACP press policy (www.acponline.org/policy).
For journalists not able to attend the meeting, the press briefing will be available via teleconference. At 10:15 AM, journalists are to call 800-860-2442. The briefing will begin at 10:30 AM. During the briefing callers will be in "listen-only" mode and following the speaker's announcements, a Q & A session will begin. The operator will cue all journalists at that time to present questions. At 9:45 AM, speaker bios and supporting materials for this session will be available at www.acponline.org/college/pressroom

Have questions about the conference or need more information? Contact: Leigh Fazzina, 215-351-2514 or 800-523-1546, ext. 2514, lfazzina@acponline.org.

ACP's Annual Session is geared to specialists in internal medicine (internists), who provide comprehensive primary and subspecialty care to adult patients. More than 6,000 physicians, medical students, and other health care professionals will attend Annual Session to learn about recent medical advances, quality improvement issues, gain insight on ethical topics, and learn about new diagnostic skills.

Press registrants will have access to more than 200 of the scientific sessions and all press briefings. The ACP Annual Session is the largest continuing education meeting for internal medicine. Don't miss the opportunity to experience it first-hand.



PRESS OFFICE: Room 105B, Pennsylvania Convention Center
Hours: Wed., 4/5/06, 12-5 p.m.;
Thurs., 4/6/06, 6:45 a.m.-5:30 p.m.
Fri., 4/7/06, 8 a.m.-5:30 p.m.;
Sat., 4/8/06, 8 a.m.-3:30 p.m.
Press Office Phone: 215-418-2426


The American College of Physicians (ACP) is the largest medical-specialty organization and the second-largest physician group in the United States. ACP members include more than 119,000 internal medicine physicians (internists), related subspecialists, medical students and residents. Internists treat the majority of adults in the United States.

SOURCE American College of Physicians

Web sites:

http://www.acponline.org/college/pressroom

http://www.acponline.org/policy/

(END)

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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Indonesia Confirms Additional Human Bird Flu Infection</font>

Main Category: Bird Flu/Avian Flu News
Article Date: 05 Apr 2006 - 0:00am (UK)
<A href="http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/medicalnews.php?newsid=41023">www.medicalnewstoday.com</a></center>
The Ministry of Health in Indonesia has confirmed an additional case of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. The case, which was fatal, occurred in a 20-month-old girl who resided in Kapuk, West Jakarta. She developed symptoms of fever and cough on 17 March, was hospitalized on 22 March, and died on 23 March. </b>

Field investigation found a history of deaths in a chicken flock near her home about one week prior to symptom onset. Chicken deaths in the neighbourhood have continued, but the cause has not yet been identified. Family members and neighbours have been placed under observation and samples from these people have been taken for testing. Preliminary results are negative, but follow-up investigation is continuing.

The newly confirmed case brings the total in Indonesia to 30. Of these cases, 23 were fatal.

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Egypt reports ninth human case of bird flu</font>

April 05 2006
<A href="http://freeserve.advfn.com/news_Egypt-reports-ninth-human-case-of-bird-flu_14913842.html">freeserve.advfn.com</a></center>
CAIRO (AFX) - Egypt reported a new human case of the deadly H5N1 strain of
avian flu, bringing to nine the number of human infections in the country,
including two fatalities, an official said.</b>

The latest infection was detected in a 16-month-old child from the village
of Dar al-Sallam in the southern province of Sohag, a spokesman for the
government's anti-bird flu committee, Nasser Kamel, told AFP.

It was the first human case of the virus in southern Egypt. The other cases
have been in the greater Cairo area and the Nile Delta region.

Egypt is on a major route for migratory birds, at the crossroads between
Asia and Africa.

newsdesk@afxnews.com
afp/ks

http://www.startribune.com/1244/story/350453.html

How the bird flu experts prepare

Are Minnesota's pandemic experts walking the talk? Some are -- and some aren't.
Josephine Marcotty, Star Tribune

Last update: April 04, 2006 – 11:36 PM

A man disinfects a car leaving a farming facility in Hluboka nad Vltavou, southern Bohemia, after the Czech Republic confirmed its first case of the H5N1 strain of bird flu in a dead swan on March 29, 2006. The swan found in Hluboka nad Vltavou had the highly pathogenic type of the disease which can be dangerous to people.


An ethical debate
Birds are migrating. And the warnings are getting louder.

Bird flu, or the H5N1 virus, has so far infected about 190 people worldwide and more than 100 have died. While it's still a serious risk only to birds, experts fear that it could mutate into a bug that could jump from human to human.

Disaster websites are recommending storing water, food, portable heaters, plastic sheeting, duct tape and hand-crank radios. So we conducted an exercise that's a lot like asking fire chiefs about the batteries in their home smoke detectors. We asked the state's top pandemic experts about their home stockpiles.

Dr. Harry Hull, state epidemiologist

Stockpiling? Yes.

Favorite item: Canned chili.

Advice: Don't forget pet food.

The point of stockpiling, Hull said, is not to stay isolated until it's safe to come out. That's just not realistic. Historically, flu epidemics come in waves of six to eight weeks over the course of 12 to 18 months. No one can stay locked up that long, although the best way to reduce your risk of infection is reducing your exposure to other people, Hull said.

"The most sensible thing you can do to protect yourself is to stay home as long as you can," he said. And don't think that you can stay in isolation until a vaccine comes along. It's unlikely that there will be enough vaccine or that it will get to you fast enough.

"I don't know what's coming, but I feel more secure because I've got food down there" in the basement, he said. He's building a two- to four-week supply of food and water. He also has a radio, flashlights, a supply of batteries and extra fuel for a camp stove.

But he made the mistake of buying a case of pop on sale. His daughter and her friends drank it. The same thing happened with the tuna. Now he buys canned chili "because it's the kind of thing you eat only if you have to," he said.

Dianne Mandernach, state commissioner of health

Stockpiling? Yes.

Favorite item: Canned tuna.

Advice: Don't forget cards and board games.

Two weeks ago she asked the Legislature for $10.5 million to spend on statewide pandemic preparedness. Last Christmas she asked her husband to get her a battery-operated radio. She's not sure if the Legislature will come through, but her husband did.

"It's important that I walk my talk," she said. Each week she adds a few items to her emergency stockpile -- powdered milk, dried pasta and tuna are on the list. You don't have to buy emergency supplies all at once, she said.

"If the worst-case scenario happens, the projections are that 30 percent of the population will be sick," she said. "We will be asking people to do self-quarantine."

Bottled water and portable heaters will be needed only if there aren't enough people going to work to keep the utility systems going, she said. But imagine being stuck in the house for weeks with the kids -- and no TV or computer.

"Families should talk about that," she said. "How are they going to be entertained?"

Dr. Greg Poland, vaccine

researcher, Mayo Clinic

Stockpiling? No.

When will he? At the first hint of human-to-human transmission.

Advice: Handle wild birds with gloves. Hunters, that means you.

Poland is an expert on flu bugs. He doesn't know whether the H5N1 virus will launch the next pandemic, but it has the greatest potential of any bug he's ever seen. "Everything we have seen in its evolution and mutation since 1997 is moving in the worst direction possible," he said.

The best preparation is education, he said. For example, it's important to know how flu spreads. The most common route is via doorknobs, counters or handrails that an infected person has touched. The second is large droplets floating briefly in the air from sneezing or coughing. There are hints that this virus can also spread in a form that could linger for hours in the air, he said. One sick person coughing in a lecture hall could infect dozens.

"I would not send my kids to school or to the mall," he said.

As for his own emergency stockpile, he'll get serious about that if the virus mutates and people start infecting each other, he said.

But when he goes goose hunting this fall he'll wear gloves. Even in its current form the virus can infect humans who pick it up from wild birds and their droppings.

Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, University of Minnesota

Stockpiling? Yes.

Favorite item: His backyard well.

Advice: Stockpile prescription drugs.

Osterholm, an infectious- disease specialist and a guru on disaster planning, takes all this advice with several large grains of salt.

"It's a lot about reassurance," he said. Health officials are trying to "scare people into their wits, not out of them," he said. But at the same time, governments don't want people to lose hope and do nothing. There are no easy answers, he said. For example, there is no point in stockpiling unless you plan to stay in your house.

"And we have no idea for how long," he said. If you think you will self-quarantine, then the whole family has to do it. If even one person goes to work they'll likely bring home an infection, he said.

On the other hand, if you are convinced that the food and water supply systems will be disrupted, then by all means stockpile, he said. He and his wife have compiled a food supply, but they don't need water because they have a backyard well. And he has a few highly specialized face masks in the house that can stop the tiniest infectious agents.

"I worry most about prescription drugs," he said. "We have no way for people to stockpile drugs for more than 30 days. What are people on Medicare going to do?"

Josephine Marcotty • 612 673 7394

Are you stockpiling food, drink and other items in anticipation of a bird flu quarantine? Why or why not? E-mail us at tellus@startribune.com. Please put BIRD FLU in the subject field.

Scientists suggest keeping cats indoors if bird flu found in birds​

Posted: 04/05/2006 07:00:32

NEW YORK (AP) -- People living in areas where bird flu has been found in poultry or wild birds should keep their cats indoors, say scientists who believe the potential role of felines in spreading the virus is being overlooked.

Cats have been known to become infected with the H5N1 virus and lab experiments show they can give it to other cats, although nobody knows whether they can transmit it to people or poultry, the researchers say in Thursday's issue of the journal Nature.

Scientists know so little about H5N1 in cats that it's difficult to assess the risk they pose when infected, wrote virologist Albert Osterhaus and colleagues at the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, The Netherlands, along with Peter Roeder of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Still, "we believe that the potential role of cats should be considered in official guidelines for controlling the spread of H5N1 virus infection," they wrote.

In areas where H5N1 has been found in poultry or wild birds, cats should be kept away from infected birds or their droppings, and cats suspected of such contacts or showing symptoms of infection should be quarantined and tested, they wrote. Where possible, cats could be kept indoors to prevent contact, they wrote.

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, an agency of the European Union, has also recommended keeping cats indoors if they live within about six miles of a verified H5N1 infection in birds.

Some bird flu experts said they found it premature to suggest keeping cats indoors. Scientists need to learn more about what role, if any, cats have in spreading H5N1 before making such blanket recommendations, said Dr. Arnold S. Monto of the University of Michigan School of Public Health.

Osterhaus, discussing his recommendations in a telephone interview, said that "people in the United States should realize the disease is not there, so there is no reason at this moment to be concerned at all."

http://www.abc15.com/news/morenews/index.asp?did=25909

http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,70131-13517468,00.html?f=rss


Has Bird Flu Reached UK?
Updated: 21:09, Wednesday April 05, 2006

A suspected case of bird flu is being investigated in Scotland.

A statement from the Scottish Executive said tests had found "highly pathogenic H5 avian flu" in a sample from a swan found dead in Fife.

However, it is said to be too early to know if the bird has fallen victim to the deadly H5N1 strain.

The statement said: "The exact strain of the virus is not yet known, tests are continuing and a further result is expected tomorrow.
"In accordance with a recent EU decision the Scottish Executive is putting in place a protection zone of a minimum of 3km radius and a surveillance zone of 10km."

Keepers of birds inside the protection zone must take them indoors where they can to prevent them coming into contact with wild birds.

The movement of poultry, eggs and related products from the area is now being restricted and if the disease is confirmed as H5N1 further controls may be put in place.

The Executive's statement added: "There is no reason for public health concern.

"Avian influenza is a disease of birds and whilst it can pass very rarely and with difficulty to humans this requires extremely close contact with infected birds."

Chief Veterinary Officer for Scotland Charles Milne said that although the disease was yet to be confirmed, the find was "an important development".

Exercise Hawthorn, the UK's dummy run for a bird flu outbreak, has been ended by the UK's Chief Veterinary Officer, Debby Reynolds.

She said: "I brought to an end the national avian influenza exercise to ensure that we can bring all our resources to bear on this situation."

The H5N1 strain of bird flu has killed more than 100 people worldwide.

Experts fear that if it mutates into a form transmissible between people it could kill millions worldwide.

http://www.lifeinitaly.com/news/news-detailed.asp?newsid=1419

WHITE WINE MAY HELP AGAINST BIRD FLU
(ANSA) - Rome, April 3 - White wine may prove to be
effective in combating bird flu, according to a study cited
by the Italian Wines Union(UIV).
Scientists have known for some time that white wine, like
red wine, is beneficial in combating cholesterol. However, a
recent study found that white wine and white grape juice
contain the active ingredients in Tamiflu, considered by many
experts to be one of the most promising medicines against
bird flu.The study was published by the British Medical Journal
and found that white wine grapes contain shikimic acid and
quercitin, the primary ingredients in the Chinese star anise
plant used to make Tamiflu.
According Alberto Bertelli, a University of Milan
researcher and scientific advisor to UIV, while caution is
needed consuming star anise, the same benefits can be
achieved by drinking a glass of white wine or white grape
juice a day.
Furthermore, while there is an abundance of white wine in
the world, supplies of Chinese star anise are limited and
there is the risk of mistaking it with the Japanese star
anise plant, which is highly toxic.
Drinking white wine is apparently also good for the
lungs. According to a June 2002 study by the University of
Buffalo School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, people
who drink white wine regularly have healthier lungs than
people who do not drink alcohol at all, and those who drink
beer, spirits and even red wine.A flood of scientific studies have shown that drinking two glasses of red wine has a beneficial effect in preventing
diseases like Alzheimer's and Parkinsons as well as
cholesterol-related cardiovascular conditions.
This is because the alcohol and antioxidants in red wine
help increase the levels of 'good' HDL cholesterol and lower
the levels of 'bad' LDL cholesterol and even eliminate it
from the heart and blood passages.
The prime substance in red wine which produces these
benefits is resveratrol, which is found in red grape skins.
More recently, studies have discovered that white
wine, which is not fermented 'in the skin', contains
tyrosine, a molecule which acts in a similar way to
resveratrol.
The positive effects of both red and white wines,
experts warned, are only beneficial when wines is consumed
in moderation.

Scotland

Last Update: Thursday, April 6, 2006. 7:17am (AEST)

Scotland finds H5 bird flu in dead swan
Britain has found bird flu in a dead swan in Scotland.​

Preliminary tests have confirmed a case of the H5 strain of the virus, the Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs said in a statement.

More tests for the deadly H5N1 strain are under way and the results should be announced today.

"We are already in a high state of readiness," Britain's chief veterinary officer Debby Reynolds said in a statement.

She has cancelled a national bird flu exercise, which began this week to test the country's response to any outbreak.

"I brought to an end the national avian influenza exercise to ensure that we can bring all our resources to bear on this situation," she said.

Officials have set up a 3 kilometre protection zone in Fife, eastern Scotland.

Bird flu remains essentially an animal disease, but can infect people who come into direct contact with infected birds.

It has killed 108 people since late 2003, according to the most recent figures from the World Health Organisation.

-Reuters

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200604/s1609639.htm

My report of Bird Flu research today:

1st, some interviews & experiences I had today with people about Bird Flu; asking anyone I encounter if they are concerned at all, ever even heard about sick birds migrating into USA in next few weeks, the latest warnings by experts & governments to begin preparing for quarantine conditions if this flu "becomes very contagious" among humans as a severe epidemic, etc.

This morning, I briefly questioned 2 different telemarketers. First was from northern state & says: "never heard of it" then hung up on me. The other person, from Sears selling siding, says: "that's crazy, it's only chickens somewhere in China and they already killed 'em all." This person was in a hurry so I advised to do a keyword search on Internet and at least get informed.

Then later in morning, just as I was leaving for lunch, a real estate agent phoned to follow up on a visit I'd made to a developer's Open-House recently. I informed the lady that we were putting our plans for building a new home on hold for now due to situation with Bird Flu; that we are thinking about other alternatives in order to safeguard our family if this becomes a serious threat. This person was very alarmed that things could be that serious, but also admitted that she "never" has time to watch any news or read a paper. Also she wanted more information on where we hearing about possibliity of Bird Flu affecting the USA. I briefly gave the government CDC website and recommended to search sites like CNN, ABC, and Google News, etc.

Had lunch out at a popular place near the zoo and it is a beautiful spring day here, everything so lovely green after months of ugly drought! There was no wait for dining out on the patio, so went out there under the trees. Waiting for our food, I suddenly noticed the faint, whitish outline of dried bird droppings along edge of the wrought iron patio table. At exact moment this was registering in my brain, several birds began fighting up in the big tree above the patio and a bunch of their fuzzy feathers came floating down all over the place. I saw them landing not only on my clothes but also on people's food next to us, our table, but also on my eating utensils, still wrapped in napkin. Then it dawned on me that this cloth napkin would be touching my lips if I used it and there it was lying on this potentially contaminated table where I could easily see traces of dried bird poop. As a nurse, I knew that all those objects could be crawling with bird flu virus but part of me didn't want to think that. I wanted things to be normal, dag gummit... and my brain was saying, "Naw, there's no reports of it here in the USA yet, you're just too paranoid." But then another part, the nurse and conspiracy researcher, was saying, "How can we really be sure of even that... how can one trust any government in matters like this, where National Security and economics will be an issue for every country; they are all likely covering up for as long as possible, trying to buy time?"

How can I describe my emotions at that moment... the realizations hitting me like a salvo of bullets, the tug of war in my brain, the other tables filled with people completely oblivious eating and laughing while all sorts of birds were flying about over their heads and fuzzy feathers floating down on them like snowflakes. Tears welled up in my eyes and I felt so much sadness for what is taking place on our planet, in our world. So we moved indoors, leaving everything behind on the table & washing hands well.

After lunch, calmer and I briefly spoke with the manager and asked if him if he was aware of the situation with birds infected with "Bird Flu Virus" soon migrating into the USA within next few weeks or months, etc? That the dining patio might should be enclosed because of the trees filled with birds and this could major problem since birds are landing on the tables, leaving droppings, and shedding feathers down on to the food. He said that he not heard anything about this virus coming to America and was blown away that this is being discussed in the news now... his face showed astonishment. To start with, I gave him the official gov't website at CDC for guidelines on Bird Flu and links to infection/exposure precautions, etc: http://www.pandemicflu.gov

If this is spreading like "LIGHTNING" as the U.N. article above says, we are in big, BIG trouble as people are not informed at all and there will be huge problems beyond imagination!

Uh guys...what about those of you that raise chickens, how are you going to protect them and yourselves?

Guys all I can say is click on the .mov animation of the flu spreading linked to in this article.

It is frightening......

Computer Simulates Bird Flu Spreading Across U.S.

Wednesday, April 05, 2006
By Robert Roy Britt

A new computer model reveals how a pandemic caused by the avian flu virus might spread quickly across the United States, and also what methods would best thwart the disease.

Researchers assumed a starting point of 10 highly infectious influenza cases in Los Angeles, then let the model take it from there.

The virus spread quickly, peaking in just 90 days with 100 or more infections per 1,000 residents in just about every corner of the country.

• Click here to watch the video (QuickTime .mov format).


The simulation is an attempt to map out what might happen with a very uncertain bug. The specific strain ravaging the world's bird populations, H5N1, does not yet easily pass between humans.

If it does mutate and develop that ability, however, human deaths could mount quickly. Vaccines developed for existing strains would likely not be effective.


U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt has said the country is not prepared for such a scenario.

Lessons learned

The virtual pandemic suggests that advance stockpiling in large quantities of a modestly effective vaccine would be preferable to waiting to see exactly what strain emerges.

Quarantines, school closures and travel restrictions alone wouldn't thwart the spread of human-to-human avian flu, but such measures could buy time while vaccines production was ramped up and tailored to the specific flu strain.

In the simulation, long-range travel by humans was cut to 10 percent of normal, based on travel advisories that would presumably be instituted.

"Based on our results, combinations of mitigation strategies such as stockpiling vaccines or antiviral agents, along with social distancing measures, could be particularly effective in slowing pandemic flu spread in the U.S.," said Ira Longini, a biostatistician with the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington.

The variables

The model uses data from the 2000 U.S. Census posits 281 million people at work, play, school and home, along with Department of Transportation travel data that incorporates rapid spread from one city to another by air travel.

The computer model employs probabilities that an infected person would cross paths with others at home or, with lower probability, elsewhere.

"So we are only computing the probability of any person becoming infected on any given day, and a roll of the dice is needed to decide whether they are infected or not," said Timothy Germann of the Los Alamos National Laboratory.

The computer also considered one vexing aspect to the flu: About 33 percent of those infected don't develop symptoms and can unknowingly transmit the disease.

[The simulation was conducted using the lab's Scalable Parallel Short-range Molecular dynamics (SPaSM) platform, originally developed to simulate nuclear explosions. The hardware used was Pink, a Linux-based supercomputer cluster at the lab, which is made up of 1,024 nodes, each of which has two 2.4 Ghz Intel Xeon processors and two gigabytes of memory.]

JG, thanks for contributing the link & the clip... the graphics say it all....

Link to tomorrows (4/5) Bird Flu thread: http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=192468