03/15 | Daily BF: Pandemic could pose risk to global financial system - IMF

Link to yesterday's thread: http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=189588

Since January, 2004 WHO has reported human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) in the following countries:

* East Asia and the Pacific:
o Cambodia
o China
o Indonesia
o Thailand
o Vietnam

* Europe & Eurasia:
o Turkey

* Near East:
o Iraq
(see preliminary report)

Since December 2003, avian influenza A (H5N1) infections in poultry or wild birds have been reported in the following countries:

* Africa:
o Cameroon
o Niger
o Nigeria

* East Asia & the Pacific:
o Cambodia
o China
o Hong Kong (SARPRC)
o Indonesia
o Japan
o Laos
o Malaysia
o Mongolia
o Myanmar (Burma)
o Thailand
o Vietnam

* Europe & Eurasia:
o Albania
o Austria
o Azerbaijan
o Bosnia & Herzegovina (H5)
o Bulgaria
o Croatia
o France
o Georgia (H5)
o Germany
o Greece
o Hungary
o Italy
o Poland
o Romania
o Russia
o Serbia and Montenegro (H5)
o Slovak Republic
o Slovenia
o Switzerland
o Turkey
o Ukraine

* Near East:
o Egypt
o Iraq (H5)
o Iran

* South Asia:
o India
o Kazakhstan
o Pakistan (H5)


For additional information about these reports, visit the
World Organization for Animal Health Web Site.

Updated March 13, 2006
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/current.htm#animals

WHO, Avian Flu Timeline in .pdf: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/timeline.pdf

Severe bird flu pandemic could pose risk to global financial system - IMF​

BEIJING (AFX) - A severe avian flu pandemic could pose risks to the global
financial system due to sharp changes in asset prices and operational risks
arising from absenteeism, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.

"If the pandemic is severe, the economic impact is likely to be significant,
though predictions are subject to a high degree of uncertainty," the IMF said in
a report providing a preliminary assessment of the risks and potential impact to
the global economy from such a pandemic.

The IMF said that while the severity of a pandemic is impossible to predict,
a pandemic similar to the 1918 Spanish Flu could result in not only a high death
toll, but a sharp, although temporary, decline in global economic activity.

A severe pandemic would most likely lead to higher levels of risk aversion
and a consequent surge in demand for liquidity, specifically cash and low-risk
assets, the IMF said.

"This 'flight to quality' would lead to at least temporary declines in asset
prices and widening of credit spreads, both for corporations and emerging
markets," the IMF said, adding that commodity prices could decline, though this
might be offset by potential disruptions in supply for key commodities such as
oil.

A severe pandemic could also lead to significant but temporary reductions in
capital flows to emerging markets as some residents seek safe havens for their
capital. But based on the experience of SARS, foreign direct investment plans
may change little, though major investments would be postponed.

But the greatest challenge to the global financial system would be
operational risks that arise from high levels of absenteeism, according to the
study.

"High absentee rates without adequate contingency plans in place could
result in disruption of critical functions and services of the financial system,
including payments, clearing and settlement and trading," the IMF said.

However, many countries have yet to address the risk posed by possible
absenteeism, according to the IMF.

Once the pandemic has run its course, economic activity is expected to
recover quickly, though countries with weak fiscal and health care systems will
likely recover at a slower rate than their developed peers.

The Fund said that there remains substantial uncertainty over the global
impact of a pandemic of any severity, as the evolution of the virus cannot be
predicted and predictions for mortality impossible to make until the pandemic
emerges and begins to spread.

http://freeserve.advfn.com/news_Sev...o-global-financial-system---IMF_14575588.html

Denmark

Denmark finds first H5 bird flu in wild bird​

www.chinaview.cn 2006-03-15 16:46:07

Special Report: Worldwide fight against bird flu

STOCKHOLM, March 15 (Xinhuanet) -- The Danish Veterinary and Food Administration confirmed Wednesday that Denmark has found the first case of H5 bird flu in a wild fowl, Ritzau news agency reported.

But it was not clear whether it was the deadly H5N1 strain and the Danish government said more details would be released at a news conference later Wednesday. Enditem

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-03/15/content_4306780.htm

Fear Of Birds Contaminating Food​

Published 15.03.2006, 11.16

Retail traders in Finland are being urged to prevent birds from settling on shopping trolleys which are left outside shops and stores by staff and customers.

The Finnish Food Marketing Association has asked stores to be more vigilant in an attempt to reduce the risk of bird flu and food contamination. Retailers are also being told they should ensure that birds do not enter food stores through windows or storage areas.

http://www.yle.fi/news/left/id30073.html

PCViking,

Thank you for your efforts in following this event. While I fail to see the emergency that the Foul Flu presents. I do thank you for your due diligence in reporting the international perspective and reports.

Jumpy Frog said:

PCViking,

Thank you for your efforts in following this event. While I fail to see the emergency that the Foul Flu presents. I do thank you for your due diligence in reporting the international perspective and reports.

Click to expand...

Thanks JF...

When SARS happened, I was working in a company that had people going back and forth to China... we all watched it and were happy to see it slip into the history books; although it did cause major economic disruption.

Now with BF, half of what's interesting in following it, is watching TPTB playing economic chess. IMHO, I believe there are a lot more cases, being covered up so as not to disrupt national/world economies. When the news leaks, out... then one day, people are all going to say, "Where the hell did this come from?"... that'll just be when TPTB can't keep a lid on it any more.

Personally I'de like to see BF, slip into the history books as a non-event, but I doubt that'll happen.

JF, keep your pantry full, and have some ammo on hand too keep looters at bay.

Eritrea, Africa

WHO reports mass bird deaths in Eritrea ​

Asmara, Eritrea

15 March 2006 12:22

The World Health Organisation (WHO) on Wednesday reported massive bird deaths in two regions in Eritrea, two weeks after it warned that the Horn of African nation was at risk of bird flu infection.

WHO representative here Andrew Kosia said that wild fowl had died in the coastal area of the Red Sea region and several chickens had died in the western region of Gash Barka.

"Birds have died in large numbers in the northern Red Sea region and in the Gash Barka region this month," said Kosia.

"We have some suspicious samples, which we hope to send for testing soon, maybe to Nairobi," he said, adding that UN experts would go to the affected regions this week.

Earlier this month, WHO warned that Eritrea was at a high risk of cross border transmission of the avian flu after the virus erupted in Egypt and tests revealing cases of bird flu-like infection in neighbouring Ethiopia.

Eritrea, like many other African nations, has banned imports of poultry since last October.

Although the H5N1 strain does not spread easily between people, those who come in contact with sick birds can contract it and scientists say millions of people worldwide could die if it mutates into a disease communicable among humans. - Sapa-AFP

http://www.mg.co.za/articlepage.aspx?area=/breaking_news/breaking_news__africa&articleid=266763

their going to have to blame it[crash] on something and bring us into line with the nwo plan to a cashless world
with this b flu and m cow crap they going to cause the world to mark there beast
than they going to cause you to take the mark of that beast its going to get rough and the man will come on the seen
it is written

Officials say Azeri dog dies of bird flu​

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsA..._US-BIRDFLU-AZERBAIJAN-DOG.xml&archived=False

AKU (Reuters) - A dog has died of bird flu in Azerbaijan, a country where the virus is believed to have caused the death of three young women, officials said on Wednesday.

"A dead stray dog has been found, and after analysis type A bird flu was discovered. The medical investigation is continuing," said a statement from the state commission tasked with fighting the spread of bird flu. It said the dog died on March 9 in the capital Baku.

JPD said:

Officials say Azeri dog dies of bird flu​

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsA..._US-BIRDFLU-AZERBAIJAN-DOG.xml&archived=False

AKU (Reuters) - A dog has died of bird flu in Azerbaijan, a country where the virus is believed to have caused the death of three young women, officials said on Wednesday.

"A dead stray dog has been found, and after analysis type A bird flu was discovered. The medical investigation is continuing," said a statement from the state commission tasked with fighting the spread of bird flu. It said the dog died on March 9 in the capital Baku.

Click to expand...

JPD....good catch........but bad news........

http://www.statesmanjournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060315/BUSINESS/603150319/1040

Poultry grown outdoors is at a higher risk for flu, agriculture experts say

Portland officials are putting together a list of bird owners

The Associated Press

March 15, 2006

PORTLAND -- Backyard chickens are more vulnerable to the bird-flu virus than commercial chickens grown indoors, agriculture officials say.

The threat to outdoor poultry comes from migratory birds and their droppings. The disease can, in rare cases, sicken or kill humans who come into close contact with the blood or feces of infected birds. Health officials fear that the disease might eventually pass more readily among humans.

Last week, federal officials said the H5N1 strain of avian flu could wind up in the United States within a year.

If so, officials said, it could pose a threat to alternative poultry companies and families that keep a few chickens in the backyard for eggs and treat their chickens as pets.

"Any time you raise birds outdoors, where they might come into contact with the wildlife reservoir, you have the danger of infection," said Thomas Myers, the director of aquaculture, swine, equine and poultry health programs for the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Animal Plant Health Inspection Service.

Increasing numbers of people are raising poultry outdoors. They include the pastured or free-range poultry movement -- growers across the Northwest who raise chickens on farms for natural-foods stores -- and chickens kept in backyard coops in urban areas.

Don Hansen, a veterinarian with the Oregon Department of Agriculture, said his agency is planning a "large educational campaign" aimed at owners of small flocks.

Owners should try to keep poultry in a screened area and restrict visits from owners of birds with any illness, he said.

To get the word out about other measures, "We're accumulating lists of bird owners," he said. "There are bunches of backyard folks."

Some chicken owners are suspicious of a chicken list, fearing that the government and big commercial producers want to make it more difficult to obtain more-nutritious eggs.

"Why can't they just hand those fliers out at feed stores?" asked Michelle Burke, who keeps a few chickens at her home near Sellwood.

go to top of page

They've got to be kidding....right???


http://mosnews.com/news/2006/03/15/zyuganovbirdflu.shtml

Top Russian Communist Blames U.S. of Using Bird Flu as Biological Weapon

MosNews

The leader of the Russian Communist Party has said the outbreak of bird flu in a number of European countries including Russia is a plot by the United States.

“It’s strange that not a single duck has yet died in America —- they are all dying in Russia and European countries. This makes one seriously wonder why,” Gennady Zyuganov was quoted by UPI as saying.

The Communist leader said that he learned all about biological warfare during his time in the army. “I tested all kinds of war gases at a range myself,” he said.

Asked whether he believes the bird flu outbreak could be a deliberate attack by the United States, Zyuganov said: “I not only suggest this, I know very well how this can be arranged. There is nothing strange here.”

http://www.birdflubeacon.com/BirdFluThreatensAmericanTroopsInIraq.htm

Bird Flu Threatens American Troops In Iraq



In less than a month bird flu has spread to humans in northern and southern Iraq,and around Baghdad. The way it has spread indicates that human-to-human transmission may be the taking place, posing a serious threat to 150,000 American troops stationed in Iraq. There is compelling evidence that human transfer of the virus is occurring in Iraq right now, as well as in other countries including Turkey and Azerbaijan (where tests are being performed to confirm H5N1).



Officially there have been just two confirmed deaths in Iraq. Here is the real cause for concern: There were no infected poultry found to cause the deaths. While a World Health Organization representative, Dr. Naeema al-Gasseer, has officially denied that human-to- human transmission has occurred, she has acknowledged that to date the confirmed human infections have not been tracked to infected poultry. There have been reports of confirmed or suspected infections in three widely separated areas of the country: Northern and Southern Iraq, and area both outside and inside Baghdad. Infected poultry were not reported in Northern or Southern Iraq, but were found outside Baghdad in Daraya.



"The two confirmed deaths are just the tip of the iceberg," according Laurie Grace, a co-founder of Bird Flu Beacon. "What's surprising is that any cases get confirmed at all. There are many factors that limit the number of confirmed cases: Not knowing bird flu symptoms, the lack of funds for surveillance and testing, a destroyed national healthcare system and poor means of transporting samples through war zones. On top of that poultry owners easily become adverse to reporting poultry infections once they learn it will mean certain destruction of their flocks, their very livelihoods, with little or no compensation."


US troops in Iraq warned about bird flu. Bird flu instructions for US troops are reported in the March 3 issue of Stars and Stripes. Soldiers are told to seek medical attention, particularly if they have flu symptoms (fever, cough, sore throat or muscle aches), or an eye infection or difficulty breathing, especially after contact with poultry. They're also told to avoid contact with birds of any kind. In particular, troops are instructed not to handle sick or dead birds, and to even avoid eating poultry originating in Iraq. They are even told to stay away from others who are sick, and to sleep in cots in a foot-to-head pattern with maximum possible distance between cots.



Bird flu mutation is more threatening than terrorist attacks. The spread of bird flu from localized communities to larger populations poses a greater threat than terrorism. So far there have been only 4 locations identified. However, the pattern of spread is very similar to that which occurred in World War I. In 1918 the bird flu, popularly known as the "Spanish Flu," killed 3 times more Americans than died in the war. In 24 weeks it killed over 24 million people, more than all the death from AIDS in 24 years. In all its toll is estimated at 50 to 100 million deaths.



There is a critical link between 1918 and the current H5N1 avian flu. Scientists at Roche Laboratory discovered that coding for the amino acids in the 1918 pandemics was extraordinarily similar to H5N1 strains today. This coding similarity helps explain why the two viruses behave very similarly with deadly results. Additionally the spead of the disease may take similar paths: through American troops. In 1918, the evidence points to the avian flu having spread initially through our American troops first the US, then to Europe and back again to the US in a more virulent form. This time our troops in Iraq could carry it to the U.S.



There have already been more than 25 mutations of the H5N1 strain, and in Iraq and Turkey it has mutated to a form that is much more easily infects humans. We are very close to the number needed to enable to virus to spread rapidly from human to human. "The world is one step away from a bird flu pandemic that cannot be averted by quarantine or vaccination. One amino-acid replacement in the genome remains to make the virus transferable from human to human," said Dmitry Lvov, the director of a virology research institute at the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences.



If further mutations occur, in the absence of early diagnosis, treatment and quarantine effective vaccine the pattern is likely to occur again. To date there is no effective vaccine for humans and medications are in short supply and not 100% effective. At Bird Flu Beacon we have noted recent developments of confirmed animal infections in Europe. We do not know if animals have been infected in Iraq because Iraq has not developed surveillance systems for farm animals. Yet it is widely recognized that bird flu is transmitted more readily to humans from farm animals such as swine because of genetic similarities.



Iraq is completely unprepared for dealing with bird flu. The Iraq healthcare system has been crippled by UN Security Council sanctions imposed in 1991, and is now plagued by military action, looting, poor security and civil disorder, according to a report from The Gulf Daily. There is not enough money, medicine or medical staff to deal with a bird flu crisis, especially in more remote areas. Every additional spread of the infection brings it closer to our troops.



There are four common indications that human-to-human transfer may be occurring. Bird Flu Beacon has analyzed press reports and found evidence that all four conditions have been reported in Iraq. They are:

* The virus spreads in large family clusters. In Northern Iraq in the town of Raniya near the Turkish border there have been confirmed reports of 2 human deaths, and an additional 19 known cases reported that have not yet been confirmed by WHO. People in Rayniya have been quarantined and more than 500,000 birds have been culled even though there have been no reported cases of infected poultry in that region.
* The virus spreads rapidly. The outbreaks in Northern Iraq followed confirmed human infections in nearby Turkey. There were 20 reported cases and 4 confirmed deaths in Turkey in less than 2 weeks followed by 19 suspected cases in Rayniya in less than a month, first reported in late January. Most recently, on March 4, a woman died of suspected bird flu in the southern city of Nasiriya. North of Baghdad, in Dayala, a WHO reresentative reported a suspected case of bird flu, and samples have been sent for verification. Additionally there has been a suspected case in the Shula area of Baghdad. Lab results are expected.
* The early cases of human to human transfer tend to be milder, with fewer deaths. Over 50% of those infected worldwide have died from the bird flu infection. However, in Rayniya of 19 reported cases, only two have died, slightly more than 10%.
* Mutations occur that replicate the virus more easily in humans. It has been confirmed that at least three people in Turkey who died from bird flu acquired a mutation that could make it more dangerous to people. A WHO official, Michael Perdue, has reorted that the viral strain in Northern Iraq, in Raniyai, was the same one seen in people in Turkey.

The World Health Organization identifies six stages of a pandemic. Stage four is one in which small clusters of human-to-human infection that remains highly localized, indicating the the virus is not yet spreading rapidly among humans. In stage six the virus is easily transmitted between humans. In Iraq the news reports suggest we may very well be at stage four, and that is alarming news for our troops and for the possible transfer to our citizens should stage six be reached.



The threat is real, but people need not be hopeless. There are many practical steps that can be taken to minimize the risk of infection. The immune systems natural killer cells can be strengthened. These cells are the first line of defense, and their specific job is to kill invading viruses. Human transfer is primarily through coughing, sneezing and touching with contaminated hands. There are behavioral changes that can be taken to minimize risk. Finally, there are steps to be taken to prepare for a pandemic.

Top Russian Communist Blames U.S. of Using Bird Flu as Biological Weapon


Damn they found us out!!!

Jumpy Frog said:

Top Russian Communist Blames U.S. of Using Bird Flu as Biological Weapon


Damn they found us out!!!

Click to expand...

Sweden

H5N1 bird flu virus confirmed in Sweden ​

STOCKHOLM 15/03/2006 18:18

The EU's reference laboratory in Britain has confirmed Sweden's first cases of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu, in two wild ducks found dead last month, the Swedish Board of Agriculture revealed.

"The EU laboratory in Weybridge has now confirmed that it is the H5N1 virus, just like we thought," Berndt Klingeborn, a virologist with the National Veterinary Institute, said in a statement from the Board of Agriculture.

The H5N1 strain of bird flu, in its most aggressive form, has killed nearly 100 people worldwide.

The two tufted ducks were found dead in Oskarshamn, on Sweden's southeastern coast, at the end of February.

Since then, Swedish officials have confirmed 29 cases of the H5 subtype of bird flu in Sweden, of which 15 have been proven to be a highly pathogenic form of the virus, but so far only the two tufted ducks have been confirmed as carriers of the H5N1 strain.

All of the dead birds have been found along the Scandinavian country's southeastern coast, or off the coast on the Baltic Sea island of Gotland.

No cases have been reported in domestic fowl.

Officials said they expected the highly pathogenic H5 cases detected so far would probably be confirmed as H5N1.

"We have to be prepared for them to turn out to be H5N1," veterinary inspector Andrea Ljung of the Board of Agriculture told АFР.

The British lab's confirmation would however not change the special measures Sweden has implemented to prevent the spread of the disease.

"This changes nothing. Wherever we have discovered a case of highly pathogenic H5, we have taken security measures as if it were H5N1," she said.

Dead birds found in the area where bird flu has been detected are to be handled specially, and special protection and monitoring zones are immediately set up in a 10-kilometer (six-mile) radius.

Poultry transport and sales in the region are then placed under review.

Confirmation of the first two cases of H5N1 came just hours after the Board of Agriculture gave Swedish zoos the green light to vaccinate their birds against the disease.

Fourteen zoos and animal parks had sought special authorisation to vaccinate their birds, in particular endangered and rare species which are involved in special breeding programs.

It is normally not permitted to vaccinate birds against the bird flu within the European Union.

"The vaccination authorisation in Sweden is an exception that is only valid for zoo birds. It will not be permitted to vaccinate pet birds, wild birds or poultry stocks," Board of Agriculture veterinarian Andrea Holmstroem said in a statement.

"The zoos have a hard time keeping the birds indoors for extended periods, so that is why vaccination is seen as a preventive measure," she said.

http://www.bakutoday.net/view.php?d=18009

US expert says bird flu virus may have dangerous mutations

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-03/15/content_4306079.htm

LOS ANGELES, March 14 (Xinhuanet) -- Recent cases of bird flu outbreak indicate the H5N1 avian influenza virus may have dangerous mutations, a U.S. bird flu expert said on Tuesday.

The virus, which has killed several domestic cats in Germany and Austria, may have acquired the ability of directly transferring from wild birds to cats and dogs, said Dr. Carol Cardona, a poultry veterinarian and professor at the University ofCalifornia, Davis.

Cardona is part of a network of U.S. researchers providing education about bird flu. Her laboratory also conducts research onavian influenza viruses focusing on the disease caused in chickens.

"Recent cases in Germany and Austria may be a dangerous sign," Cardona told Xinhua in a telephone interview.

"We have known that felids could be infected by the virus easily," she said. "Last year, tigers and leopards in a zoo in Thailand were killed by the virus after eating fresh chicken, but the German cases are different."

Generally, the H5N1 virus transfers from wild birds to poultry,and then goes from poultry to wild birds or other species, including human, according to Cardona.

But in recent cases, domestic cats were infected after eating dead wild birds or contacting with them.

"That means, the virus may have acquired the ability of directly transferring from wild birds to other species, such as domestic cats or urban dogs," she said. "It may be able to do thiswithout the poultry."

If the virus can infect domestic cats and urban dogs, which closely contact with people in everyday life, it will pose more threat to humans, she said.

There is no evidence that the virus has accomplished the so-called "species jumping," which means it can circulate among animals other than the birds.

"But there is the possibility, so we can never underestimate the virus," she said.



ASIAN POULTRY INDUSTRY MUST REFORM



The highly pathogenic H5N1 bird flu has spread from Southeast Asia to Europe, the Middle East and Africa. So far, the virus hasn't reached North or South America, but experts say its arrival is only a matter of time.

The deadly virus has killed millions of birds and more than 100 humans since it appeared 10 years ago.

It mutates, and the big fear among the world's scientists is that the bird flu virus will join the human flu virus, change its genetic code and emerge as a new and deadly flu that can even spread through the air from human to human.

If the virus has mutated into a human flu virus, it does not necessarily mean it will be as deadly to people as it is to birds, but experts say they must prepare for the worst.

According to Cardona, the world's poultry industry has suffered huge losses because of the bird flu outbreak.

"The common consumers, not knowing properly cooked chicken is safe, refuse to buy poultry products. It happens in Italy and some other European countries," she said.

And the poultry industry must reform itself to cope with the bird flu challenge, especially in Asian countries. Breeding poultry in closed henneries should be safer than outdoor feeding, Cardona said.

"I know that both forms exist in China and other Asian countries, indoor breeding and outdoor free-ranching," she said.

"Since the bird flu broke out about 10 years ago, no indoor hennery has been infected, while there are too many cases of infection in outdoor feeding."

"If they (outdoor poultry farms) are infected, the death rate must be 100 per cent. That means a tragedy for chicken, also means huge loss and danger to humans."

Bird Flu Will Reach U.S. and Canada This Fall

Bird Flu Will Reach U.S. and Canada This Fall, Experts Predict

The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu could hit North America during the fall snow goose migration, experts warned early this month.

In a March 8 press conference at the United Nations headquarters in New York City, David Nabarro, the UN's lead spokesperson on bird flu, predicted that the virulent strain will arrive in the United States and Canada within 6 to 12 months.

"And who knows? We've been wrong on other things. It might be earlier," the Associated Press reported him as saying.

Ken Rosenberg, director of conservation science at Cornell University's ornithology laboratory, agrees with this prediction.

The disease is now on three continents—Asia, Africa, and Europe—and "seems to be showing up in far-flung places," he said.

Alaska (see map) is the disease's most likely point of entry into the Americas. That's because many birds migrate to Alaska from Asia via the Aleutian Islands.

In Alaska infected birds from Asia could mingle with their North American counterparts, such as snow geese, which could then carry it south during their fall migrations.

Fearing such an intercontinental transfer, bird experts last year began testing Alaska's migratory birds for the disease.

Pole-Circling Gulls

But there are other routes by which bird flu could reach the Americas.

Some gulls, for example, follow the Arctic Ocean shoreline from the Russian region of Siberia to Alaska, Canada, and Scandinavia.

There are also species that fly from Scandanavia to Greenland (see map), where they mingle with other birds that migrate between Greenland and North America.

What's more, some birds stray off course and "can basically show up anywhere," Rosenberg added.

The first cases to reach North America, however, are likely to be isolated.

"A whole series of steps has to happen for wild birds to pose a problem," Rosenberg said.

To begin with, birds coming up from Asia or Europe have to be infected with the disease but healthy enough to fly. Second, any newly infected North American animals would have to survive long enough to carry it back south.

Furthermore, there are indications that the strain of the virus that kills poultry and humans isn't quite the same as the one infecting wild birds.

"I know of no documented cases of domestic birds picking up the disease from wild ones," Rosenberg said. Nor, he added, does he know of any documented cases of humans getting the disease from wild birds.

"At this point the virus is more of a danger to wild bird populations than wild bird populations are to humans," he said.

Even so, the disease is unlikely to cause a massive wave of extinctions, he said, although there are concerns about what would happen if the disease made its way into an endangered species.

The real concern is that bird flu might move from wild birds to domestic poultry—and from there to people.

Allan Baker is head of the Department of Natural History at the Royal Ontario Museum in Toronto. He believes it is "almost inevitable" that the disease will ultimately reach the Americas, but he's not sure it will come via migratory birds.

The international trade in live poultry, he says, poses a far greater risk.

Nor, said Edward Dubovi, director of the virology section at Cornell University's Animal Health Diagnostic Center, should we discount the possibility that "stupidity and greed" might bring the virus in by an entirely different pathway.

Exotic bird smuggling is routine, he said, and pet-bird swap meets are essentially unregulated.

Rather than coming in via a wild bird, the disease may therefore arrive through "somebody who doesn't give a damn about anything but making a dollar."

Barricaded Birds

Any infection of North America's domestic flocks could be an economic disaster. But large commercial flocks in the U.S. and Canadia are fairly well protected, Dubovi said.

"If you go in one of those [poultry farms], your car gets washed down. You have to shower. They're probably not going to be all that vulnerable."

A bigger risk would be among organic farmers, free-range chicken farmers, and hobby farmers, whose flocks aren't as well barricaded.

Many of these people would report the disease and accept compensation for the slaughter of their flocks. But some might be reluctant to come forward, creating smoldering pockets of infection.

To the extent there is a risk to U.S. farmworkers, Dubovi believes it will also lie with the smaller operators: people who have 40 or 50 chickens and suddenly find 4 or 5 dead.

"We're accumulating lists of bird owners," Don Hansen, state veterinarian for the Oregon Department of Agriculture, told today's Oregonian newspaper.

"There are bunches of backyard folks," he added, including people in urban Portland, Oregon, who raise chickens as pets.

But Baker thinks that the risk of humans contracting bird flu in North America will be lower than in Asia.

That's because North Americans rarely live in close contact with their poultry as many Asian villagers do, he says.

Click to expand...

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/03/0314_060314_bird_flu.html

WHO: secret database

Secret avian flu archive ​

The New York Times

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 15, 2006

At a time when health authorities are racing to head off a possible avian flu pandemic, it is distressing to learn that the World Health Organization is operating a secret database that holds the virus' genetic information. A lone Italian scientist has challenged the system by refusing to send her own data to the password-protected archive. Instead, she released the information publicly and urged her colleagues to do the same.

She is surely right. The limited-access archive should be opened or bypassed immediately to encourage research on this looming health menace.

The campaign by Ilaria Capua, an Italian veterinarian who works on avian influenza, was spotlighted in recent articles in the journal Science and The Wall Street Journal. The hidden data could be of immense value in determining how the virus is evolving and in developing effective vaccines or drugs. The possibility of breakthroughs can increase only if many more scientists can analyze the data.

The rationale for the closed system is that the restrictions encourage scientists who are worried about being scooped by rivals to share their data on a limited basis even before they have published their findings in a journal. Confidentiality is also needed, some say, to encourage skittish countries, worried about bad publicity or the loss of intellectual property, to release the genetic sequences of viruses found on their territory.

Those arguments seem insubstantial now that some top WHO officials and other health authorities have called for opening the exclusive-access system. Academic and national pride must not be allowed to slow potentially crucial health research.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/03/15/opinion/edflu.php

OSU researcher working on quick way to ID bird flu​

http://www.oregonlive.com/science/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/news/1142321952276650.xml&coll=7

Avian strains - A fast determination of the type of virus can be crucial in stopping its spread

Wednesday, March 15, 2006
PATRICK O'NEILL

If an avian flu virus struck a chicken flock in the Northwest, a cumbersome testing procedure would take three to four days to determine what kind it is.

But a researcher at Oregon State University is working on a test that he hopes could eventually identify the virus within 10 minutes.

Manoj Pastey, an assistant professor in biomedical science at the Oregon State University College of Veterinary Medicine, has received a $100,000 grant from the U.S. Department of Agriculture to develop tests that would let poultry growers know within minutes whether their chickens harbor either the H5 or H7 types of avian influenza. Both types can develop into a highly pathogenic virus that can quickly destroy flocks. Pastey said the two tests are being developed simultaneously.

Health officials are particularly worried about the H5N1 strain, a subset of the H5 subgroup, because it can sicken and kill human beings who come into contact with infected poultry. They also fear the virus could change in a way that would allow it to pass easily among people.

Under current testing procedures, poultry growers send samples to veterinary labs such as the one at OSU, which can determine whether a chicken has one of many flu viruses -- most of them mild.

But determining whether the virus is the dangerous H5 or H7 subtype takes longer, at a specialized facility such as the National Veterinary Service Laboratory in Ames, Iowa. Both subtypes are dangerous to poultry.

Pastey would devise a test that could be used by a small laboratory to return results within three or four hours.

Further refinements by a commercial developer could turn the test into a use-once kit with which anyone could confirm the presence of the viruses.

Such tests are available for a wide range of veterinary illnesses, including parvovirus and giardia in dogs and feline immunodeficiency virus and feline leukemia virus.

At the heart of Pastey's tests are antibodies for the H5 and H7 viruses. The antibodies, immune system proteins, bind to a protein on the surface of each virus particle. The trick, Pastey says, is to develop an antibody that will bind only to the targeted virus particles.

Pastey says he has developed the required antibodies by inoculating mice with inactivated H5 and H7 flu viruses. Now researchers must make sure the antibodies bind to the virus particles and nothing else. In the tests, certain chemicals will turn a color to announce the presence of the viruses.

Pastey predicts a laboratory-scale test will be available within 18 months. Commercial development, he said, would take much longer.

Human H5N1 Iraq Sequence Includes N186S ​

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/03150601/H5N1_Iraq_Sequences.html

Recombinomics Commentary
March 15, 2006

HA sequences from Irar have been released (A/human/Iraq/207-NAMRU3/2006(H5N1), A/domestic goose/Iraq/812/2006(H5N1), A/domestic cat/Iraq/820/2006(H5N1) by the US Naval Medical Research Unit in Cairo. As expected, all three have the HA cleavage site GERRRKKR, which is the signature sequence of the Qinghai strain of H5N1 bird flu. All three sequences are wild type at position 227 (serine).

The sequences are most closely related to the Kurgan isolate, A/chicken/Kurgan/3/2005(H5N1), which shares some polymorphisms with the Nigerian sequence, A/chicken/Nigeria/641/2006(H5N1). There are some polymorphisms that are specific to Iraq, including R565K.

The most intriguing change however is the change that is only in the human sequence, A609G, which creates N186S. This change could alter the affinity of receptor binding domain, which includes position 190, for human receptors. Donor sequences for this change were not identified in a search of the Los Alamos flu database, highlighting the need for a more complete database and release of the sequestered sequences.

The human sequence from Iraq is the first Qinghai related human sequence made public, and the cat sequence is the second mammalian Qinghai related sequence to be made public. Kudos goes to the Cairo research group for timely and transparent release of critical sequence information.

The above data provides more compelling reasons for the release of the H5N1 sequences sequestered by WHO, including human sequences from Turkey and Indonesia. The sequences each have unique features that are critical in mapping the paths of H5N1 spread as well as changes that will impact vaccine development. Release of the sequestered sequences is long overdue.

Severe bird flu pandemic could pose risk to global financial system

Click to expand...

The upcoming crash of the global financial system is definately NOT due to currency mismanagement!!!

The birds did it!!!!

Damn birds have bankrupt us again! ...more like IMF "bird"brains pose risk to global financial system!!!


tsk, tsk...

India

Fresh cases of bird flu​

http://www.thestatesman.net/page.news.php?clid=2&theme=&usrsess=1&id=109789

Statesman News Service

NEW DELHI, March 15. – The Maharashtra government has begun culling operations on about 75,000 birds after a fresh outbreak of bird flu was reported in Jalgaon district with four bird samples testing positive. Though the government officials have said that there was nothing to worry, fresh cases of bird flu have been reported from backyard poultry and not commercial poultry as was the case in Navapur and Nandurbar districts earlier.

The joint secretary, animal husbandry, Mrs Upma Chawdhry said four villages of Jalgoan district – Salve, Savda, Marul and Hated – are being quarantined. “Culling operations would commence in 175 neighbouring villages in six places in the district,” she said.

Over 50 rapid response teams started culling operations today to kill all birds found within a radius of 10 kilometres of each of these infected villages. Mrs Chawdhry said that catching and culling the birds will need lot more time now as the cases have been reported from backyard poultry, which is an unorganised sector.

“We will have to convince people to cull their birds. They will be compensated later,” she said yesterday at a press briefing.

Information was received that some birds had died in the four villages, including Hated and Salve. Samples were collected and sent to a laboratory in Bhopal for examination.

Reports of the samples, received on Monday, confirmed that the dead birds had been affected by avian flu.

Preventive measures have been taken in 174 villages to contain the spread of the disease. Six tehsils – Jalgaon, Dharangaon, Amalner, Chopda, Yawal and Shirpur – are under watch, district officials said.

Police have sealed borders and additional police force is being deployed in the infected villages. Special wards would be set up at tehsil rural hospitals and the district administration has advised people not to eat chicken.

All the four birds tested positive have so far been tested for the H5 strain. But the N1 strain is yet to be ascertained through laboratory tests.

Animal husbandry department officials here said 6,600 samples have been sent to the laboratory in Bhopal in the past two weeks. Earlier, 95 human samples tested at the National Institute of Virology, Pune, for the bird flu virus were found negative.

Over 200 people who reported ill in the area infected by bird flu were admitted to hospitals. According to the director, National Institute of Communicable Diseases, Dr Shiv Lal, even though all the cases tested negative, it can’t be assumed that India is “bird flu free”.

There have been instances of outbreak of bird flu in many countries with bird flu re-emerging even after the situation was brought to normalcy.

Last month, reports of bird flu had drastically brought down sale of chicken and eggs in the market.

The government had to come to the rescue of poultry owners as chicken and eggs were taken off menus at many places.

1,000 admitted to hospitals following fever in Malegaon

http://www.zeenews.com/znnew/articles.asp?aid=281901&sid=REG

Nasik, Mar 15: Over a thousand people, including women and children, were admitted to government and private hospitals in powerloom town of Malegaon in the district following complaints of fever, a senior official said today.

Medical officer of Malegaon Municipal Corporation Dr Hasonoddin Shaikh said that MMC health squad was fully geared up to provide treatment to the patients, who were admitted following complaints of "high temperature and joint pains".

"The condition of all the patients was stable," Shaikh added.

"We have collected blood samples of all the patients for examinations and report of it was awaited," he added.

Fever hits 2,000 in Malegaon

http://dnaindia.com/report.asp?NewsID=1018134

NASHIK: Over 1,000 people, including women and children, were admitted to government and private hospitals in the powerloom town of Malegaon in the district following complaints of fever, a senior official said on Wednesday.

Another 1,000 people are said to be affected too.

Malegaon Municipal Corporation Medical Officer Dr Hasonoddin Shaikh said that MMC health squad was fully geared up to provide treatment to the patients, who were admitted following complaints of "high temperature and joint pains".

"The condition of all the patients was stable," Shaikh added.

"We have collected blood samples of all the patients for examinations and report of it was awaited," he added.

Bird flu: Nasik authorities put on alert (about a month ago)

Notice date on the article: Feb. 19th.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1420366.cms

Feb 19th, 2006. NASIK: The district authorities here were put on high alert after the confirmation of outbreak of birdflu in Nandurbar district of north Maharashtra.

District Collector Mahesh Zagde has asked Regional Tranport Officers (RTO) and Police to keep watch on transportation of chickens from Dhule, Nandurbar and Surat.

Zagde said that we are also keeping watch at government as well as private hospitals to see if patients with bird flu symtoms was found.

Nasik hosts chicken festival (about 2 weeks ago)

http://www.newkerala.com/news2.php?action=fullnews&id=20590

Nasik: To create awareness among the people and to dispel fears of bird flu from their minds, a three-day chicken festival has been organized in Nasik.

Through the festival, the organizers want to send across the message to the people that consumption of chicken is risk free as the flu is limited within 3 km of Navapur.

“We appeal to all common people that they should enjoy chicken and eggs. Do not fear about bird flu. It is at 3 km area of Navapur. The rest of India and Maharashtra is bird flu free,” said Udhav Aahare, Chairman, District Poultry Association, Nasik.

Doctors have also given a clean chit to the consumers and have asked them to be fearless.

“For a common consumer who is a routine chicken consumer, he should not be bothered about chicken convention. He can start his routine chicken convention. There is no risk at all involved,” said Dr. S. V. Deshpande, a Veterinary doctor.

People came in large numbers to relish the chicken cuisine. On this festival, 2000 kg of chicken biryani is being cooked and is served to the people gratis.

Nasik has around 2500 small and big chicken farms.

JPD said:

Human H5N1 Iraq Sequence Includes N186S ​

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/03150601/H5N1_Iraq_Sequences.html

Recombinomics Commentary
March 15, 2006

HA sequences from Irar have been released (A/human/Iraq/207-NAMRU3/2006(H5N1), A/domestic goose/Iraq/812/2006(H5N1), A/domestic cat/Iraq/820/2006(H5N1) by the US Naval Medical Research Unit in Cairo. As expected, all three have the HA cleavage site GERRRKKR, which is the signature sequence of the Qinghai strain of H5N1 bird flu. All three sequences are wild type at position 227 (serine).

The sequences are most closely related to the Kurgan isolate, A/chicken/Kurgan/3/2005(H5N1), which shares some polymorphisms with the Nigerian sequence, A/chicken/Nigeria/641/2006(H5N1). There are some polymorphisms that are specific to Iraq, including R565K.

The most intriguing change however is the change that is only in the human sequence, A609G, which creates N186S. This change could alter the affinity of receptor binding domain, which includes position 190, for human receptors. Donor sequences for this change were not identified in a search of the Los Alamos flu database, highlighting the need for a more complete database and release of the sequestered sequences.

The human sequence from Iraq is the first Qinghai related human sequence made public, and the cat sequence is the second mammalian Qinghai related sequence to be made public. Kudos goes to the Cairo research group for timely and transparent release of critical sequence information.

The above data provides more compelling reasons for the release of the H5N1 sequences sequestered by WHO, including human sequences from Turkey and Indonesia. The sequences each have unique features that are critical in mapping the paths of H5N1 spread as well as changes that will impact vaccine development. Release of the sequestered sequences is long overdue.

Click to expand...

If you're clueless about the above report like I am, I will post a few layman's explanations from people over on CE.

First, Toaster2:

I think it may indeed be bad news. As the binding of the haemagglutinin can be bird specific or mammal (human) specific, any changes in the binding domain may mean that it gets more mammal-specific. And when you see it in mammalian isolates it probably is a bad sign meaning better binding to mammals to than birds

Click to expand...

Next, jam:

my nonscientific knowledge limits my understanding of all this . Basically it means, it is learning how to change to infect mammals (cats, humans, dogs, etc.). Humans are mammals too and it is getting better at picking the lock. It has not learned how to infect humans efficiently but it can infect them easier than before. It is getting closer

Click to expand...

And finally, MamaAlana:

It means that the virus is changing, becoming more similar to the kind of virus that can spread easily among humans, the way that the seasonal flu does. This is obviously not good news. Some scientists have "sequenced" the genes of various H5N1 viruses from different places; this sequencing can be thought of as 'fingerprinting' the virus. The changes in the sequences are what they are talking about above. Many of these scientists are keeping "their" sequences private until they can write a scientific paper about them. This paper will be published in a sort of magazine that all the scientists in that field read. This lets the others go "oo" and "ah" over the published scientist's conclusions. It might lead to corporations that make medicine giving the scientist more money to study the virus some more, so that the medicine company can make new drugs.

Some of these scientists who study the viruses have made their sequences public, so that any other scientist who wants to can also study them. They are urging the greedy ones to also publish their sequences, because the more people that are studying and working on these flu viruses, the better. If Doctor A and Doctor B work together and share their findings, the more likely it is that vaccines and other medicines can be made ready in time to help prevent the worst of the pandemic. If they each work alone, maybe each would have half the puzzle pieces, but never put them together to make the whole picture

Click to expand...

http://news-service.stanford.edu/news/2006/march15/siepr-031506.html

Stanford Report, March 15, 2006
Array of factors leaves U.S. poorly prepared for avian flu pandemic, experts warn

BY LISA TREI


Professor Lucy Shapiro offered a grim assessment of the threat posed by the well-publicized strain of avian influenza spreading around the globe.

"Right now, H5N1 is actually a clear and present danger," the developmental biologist said recently about the virus that began circulating in Asia in late 2003 and has since spread to Europe and Africa. Shapiro said it is impossible to know whether H5N1 will mutate into a strain that could kill humans on a scale similar to the deadly 1918 pandemic, which cost more than 40 million lives. "It's a rare event, so it's not going to start popping up all over the world, all the time," she said. "Depending on where it happens will tell us whether it will get out."

As wild birds migrate, Shapiro explained, the potential increases for more poultry groups to be infected with the virus. With that, the chance for animal-to-human and, eventually, human-to-human transmission jumps. "Am I worried?" she said. "Yes."

Shapiro, the Virginia and D. K. Ludwig Professor, joined Lawrence Wein, the Paul E. Holden Professor of Management Science at the Graduate School of Business, and U.S. Rep. Zoe Lofgren, D-San Jose, in an assessment of the economics of disaster preparedness during an afternoon panel at the 2006 Economic Summit of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

The daylong event featured presentations and discussions with U.S. Secretary of the Treasury John Snow, Google Chief Executive Officer Eric Schmidt and Harvard University economics Professor George F. Baker. Topics discussed included tax reform, energy and natural resources, and economic relations with China. University of Chicago Professor Steven Levitt, author of the best-selling Freakonomics, gave a talk. In addition to discussing disaster preparedness, participants met to talk about nanotechnology, California's greenhouse-gas targets and policy issues for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Shapiro, Wein and Lofgren painted a disturbing picture of a nation largely unprepared to face infectious disease pandemics and manmade bioterror attacks in an increasingly interconnected world.

Wein, an expert in homeland security research on bioterrorism and border issues, said smallpox, anthrax and botulinum toxin attacks pose serious threats but are less likely to occur in the near future than an avian flu pandemic.

In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, Wein said, it has become clear that the government is not likely to act as a first responder following a major disaster. "The government is not going to be there for us," he said. "We need citizens to be the first responders."

Lofgren, who serves on the House Committee on Homeland Security, said the destruction caused by Hurricane Katrina demonstrated that Americans need to be as prepared for natural disasters as terrorist attacks. "Although there is some progress, the state of readiness of the United States is not what it should be," she said. "Three years after the creation of [the Department of Homeland Security] it's still a bureaucratic mess. … We have a long way to go. It's not always just a matter of funding—it's a matter of management and leadership."

According to Shapiro, the avian flu is likely to mutate at some point. For example, she said, if a flock of chickens contracts the virus in a small village in Africa with no surveillance or veterinarians operating to provide a quick, accurate diagnosis, someone with an ordinary human flu could pick up the bird strain—allowing the two viruses to recombine into something transmissible from person to person. "The 1918 pandemic arose from an avian flu by a whole lot of mutations," she said. That virus and the current strain have more than a 50-percent kill rate, she added. "This is terrifying."

If the virus mutates, Shapiro said, the United States is poorly prepared to respond. Forty percent of states lack enough medical supplies to cope with a pandemic flu. "We have just-in-time capacity with no surge capacity" for medical supplies, she said. "If you have a pandemic, you must have surge capacity." The problem is compounded because 80 percent of raw materials for drugs come from overseas, and these would be hampered by quarantines and supply delays during an emergency. In addition, Shapiro said, current antitrust rules prevent collaboration among pharmaceutical companies to speed development of new drugs. And unlike new weapons, the U.S. government does not guarantee the purchase of new drugs. "These are the things that have to be changed," she said.

To stand a fighting chance during a pandemic, Shapiro said, antitrust laws must be relaxed, the manufacturing and stockpiling of vaccines and anti-viral drugs must be scaled up and surveillance and epidemiology must be improved. "This is really critical," she said. "If you get a flare-up of a disease in a small town in Laos, we have to have some way of getting Tamiflu [an anti-viral drug] to damp down that outbreak. It doesn't help to [give] everyone in the United States Tamiflu—you have to stop it from getting out of Laos. It's naïve to think that simply by sprinkling Tamiflu over the population of the United States that this is going to protect us. No way. You have to get into the mindset that we live in a global community. We are not alone."

Leavitt calls for personal flu plans
Health secretary says no need to panic but be prepared

By Kristen Gerencher, MarketWatch
Last Update: 11:45 AM ET Mar 15, 2006

fair use only

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- There's no cause for panic, but Americans need to prepare for a possible worldwide epidemic of influenza by stockpiling food, water and basic first aid, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Mike Leavitt said Tuesday.
During a wide-ranging speech at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco, Leavitt said citizens need to prepare for a pandemic as they would a hurricane or earthquake, which could happen at the same time since a pandemic could last as long as a year and a half.
A pandemic may arise from an as-yet unknown virus or the avian flu strain H5N1 that's been sweeping the world and devastating flocks of swans and poultry -- if it acquires the ability to pass easily between people, he said.
Unlike natural disasters or even terrorist attacks, a pandemic is unique because it typically lasts a year or more and occurs everywhere at the same time, Leavitt said.
"Pandemics happen," Leavitt said. "They have happened for centuries, and there's no reason to believe the 21st century will be any different."
The 20th century saw three pandemics, the worst of which was the 1918-19 Spanish flu that killed an estimated 50 million people globally, 500,000 of whom were American. The last two pandemics, in 1968 and 1957, were considered mild.
While the federal government is building a stockpile of antiviral drugs believed to lessen the severity of pandemic flu symptoms, developing a vaccine is proving trickier. Because viruses mutate often and vaccines take time to mass produce safely and effectively, it will take about six months to create a vaccine after the virus that causes a pandemic is identified, Leavitt said.
This week, the Ministry of Health in Azerbaijan reported its first three cases human cases of avian influenza, all of which were fatal, according to the World Health Organization, which is working with Azerbaijan to confirm the cause of the deaths. If confirmed, the total number of human fatalities from bird flu would top 100.
As of Tuesday, the total worldwide number of human cases was 177 and the human death toll stood at 98, the WHO said. The vast majority of people who died of bird flu had close contact with sick birds, and none died from eating properly cooked chicken or eggs, health authorities said.

Biggest concerns
The first six months of a pandemic likely would cause "social distancing," he said, as people stayed home out of fear or to nurse themselves or take care of sick family members. Without a vaccine, the nation will have to rely on traditional public-health measures for that first half-year, he said.
The two biggest pandemic concerns Leavitt has, he said, are the same for any significant widespread medical emergency: that there wouldn't be enough surge capacity and hospitals would be overwhelmed with patients, and that distribution of antivirals and vaccines would fall short of what's needed.
"We will have stockpiles of Tamiflu and other antivirals sufficient to supply 25% of the population," he said. "Being able to get pills into the palms of people in a relatively short time is ultimately how we measure success."
Leavitt called local preparedness the "foundation" of overall pandemic readiness.
"Any community that fails to prepare with the expectation that the federal government will step in and rescue them will be sadly disappointed," Leavitt said. "Not because we lack a will, not because we lack a wallet, but because we lack a way."
He said a wild bird infected with the H5N1 strain may show up in the U.S. as soon as the next few months, but that such a finding wouldn't amount to a crisis. It would only be a public-health crisis if the virus began to infect people, Leavitt said.
Consumers can see the government's family preparedness checklist by visiting the Web site www.pandemicflu.gov/planguide/checklist.html.
A mild pandemic would infect an estimated 75 million Americans, kill 100,000 of them and reduce the gross domestic product by 1.5%, according to a report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released in December 2005.
A severe outbreak would sicken 90 million, lead to 2 million deaths and push the U.S. economy into a recession with a GDP drop of 5%, the CBO said. (I don't believe these figures to be accurate. This would only be a 2 percent fatality rate, and thus far the fatality rate has been somewhere around 60%.) Such a scenario would be akin to the 1918 Spanish flu, which killed as many as 50 million people worldwide. See story on bird flu putting U.S. on defensive.
Separately, Leavitt also addressed health-care cost containment, quality initiatives and electronic medical records, sticking largely with the Bush administration theme of market-based health-care solutions.
"I want to see the medical clipboard become a thing of the past," he said. "There's no reason we should have to fill it out as many times as we do."

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...-4CB6-A6B5-567D62EF0FE8}&dist=rss&siteid=mktw

Nice catch Pandora...I gotta chew on this for awhile:

A severe outbreak would sicken 90 million, lead to 2 million deaths and push the U.S. economy into a recession with a GDP drop of 5%, the CBO said.

Click to expand...

So with about a two percent fatality rate, we get a drop in the GDP of five percent. So, if we use "real world" fatality numbers of fifty to sixty percent, that means the GDP would drop...seventy five to ninety percent!!!. Please correct me if I'm wrong (please!).

That would be a nation killer.

You may have just hit on a very valid point there. That kind of GDP drop would lead to a severe depression. Not a recession as the article indicates. If this thing goes H2H we are all screwed, it doesn't matter if you are one of the lucky ones that doesn't get sick.

Here's a more indepth article on the latest from Leavitt....

Fair use only

Leavitt vows action on flu vaccine technology

Mar 15, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Mike Leavitt, reporting this week on preparations for a possible influenza pandemic, promised to act soon to boost US flu vaccine production capacity and promote cell-based vaccine technology.

In a 12-page report, Leavitt said HHS will request proposals from the industry next month on ways to boost production with the existing egg-based technology and will award contracts this spring for the development of cell-based vaccines.

In addition, HHS intends to award contracts by September for developing new flu antiviral drugs, he said.

Vaccines claim most funding
Of HHS's $3.3 billion share of pandemic funds appropriated by Congress in December 2005, more than two thirds will go for vaccines and antivirals, according to Leavitt's "Pandemic Planning Update." The emphasis on vaccines and antivirals is in keeping with the thrust of the HHS pandemic preparedness plan published last November.

HHS plans to allocate $1.781 billion to vaccine development and $731 million to antivirals, Leavitt's report says. Other allocations include $350 million for state and local preparedness; $162 million for medical supplies; $133 million for domestic surveillance, quarantine, lab capacity, and rapid tests; $125 million for international activities; and $38 million for risk communication.

The nation currently lacks the capacity to make enough egg-based flu vaccine to supply the entire population, Leavitt noted in his report. "HHS is working with industry to determine ways to increase that capacity, including developing new facilities and expanding production in existing facilities," he wrote. "A request for formal proposals will be issued in April 2006."

He added that cell-based vaccine technology promises to be more reliable, flexible, and expandable than egg-based methods, with which production takes about 6 months. HHS awarded a $97 million contract in April 2005 for development of a cell-based flu vaccine, and the agency expects "to award additional contracts for developing cell-based vaccines this spring," Leavitt wrote. The 2005 contract went to Sanofi Pasteur. When the pandemic plan was released last fall, HHS officials predicted it would take 4 to 5 years to bring cell-based flu vaccines to the point of usability.

In other comments, Leavitt said it will probably be necessary to develop "a series of vaccines" against the H5N1 avian flu virus as it evolves. He noted that HHS has contracted with two companies (Sanofi Pasteur and Chiron Corp.) to make about 8 million doses of vaccine based on a strain of the H5N1 virus that infected humans in Vietnam in 2004. Last week HHS announced plans to begin working on a second "pre-pandemic" vaccine, based on a 2005 strain of H5N1 from Indonesia.

However, in releasing his report this week, Leavitt noted that no vaccine precisely matching the virus will be available for the first 6 months of a pandemic. "We will be dependent upon traditional public health measures to contain and limit it," a Mar 13 Associated Press (AP) report quoted him as saying.

Goals for antiviral drugs
HHS hopes to have 81 million treatment courses of the antivirals oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza), enough to treat about 25% of the population, by the end of 2008, Leavitt reported. But the states would have to buy 31 million of those courses, with HHS paying 25% of the cost, he said.

Because the H5N1 virus could become resistant to the two drugs, HHS is committing $200 million for developing new antivirals, Leavitt said. "HHS expects to request formal proposals later this spring and to award contracts for the advanced development of promising antivirals by September 2006."

HHS is discussing with the states whether the antivirals should be stored centrally or dispersed around the country, Leavitt reported. To receive their share of pandemic funds, "states are being required to develop distribution plans now, so that if a pandemic erupts, it will be clear where the drugs are to go and how they will get there," he wrote.

In releasing the report, Leavitt said his biggest concern about a pandemic is the problem of rapidly distributing drugs to those who need them, according to the AP report. "Doing anything millions of times is hard. Doing it fast makes it even more difficult," he was quoted as saying.

The report said the $162 million for medical supplies will be used to buy 6,000 ventilators, 50 million surgical masks, 50 million N95 respirators, and face shields, gloves, and gowns.

Sounding a theme he has emphasized in recent state "summit" meetings on pandemic preparedness, Leavitt said that in a pandemic, "Every community will need to rely on its own planning and its own resources as it fights the outbreak."

Of $350 million that Congress appropriated for state and local preparedness, "We are awarding $100 million to states right now," Leavitt wrote. "The remaining $250 million will be distributed later according to benchmarks we establish to monitor progress."

All states are being asked to conduct simulation exercises to test their pandemic plans by the end of this year, he added. States will be invited "to participate in a nationwide pandemic planning exercise within the next 12 months."

Virus expected to reach US
In other observations, Leavitt wrote that the H5N1 virus now exists in two major variants or clades and that the newer clade is the one spreading in western Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and Africa. "This second clade has killed over 60 percent of those [humans] it is known to have infected," he stated.

"It is only a matter of time before we discover H5N1 in birds in America," Leavitt predicted. "The migration patterns of the wild fowl that carry the virus make its appearance here almost inevitable."

On the international front, Leavitt said, HHS is "putting experts on the ground in numerous nations spread across a vast landscape" to help monitor avian flu. But he gave no details on the numbers of people or countries involved.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US Agency for International Development will soon sign an agreement with the Wildlife Conservation Society to cooperate on monitoring the virus, the report says.


http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/news/mar1506hhs.html

Here is a link to Leavitt's full 12 page report released 3/13....

http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/pdf/panflu20060313.pdf

I guess if you're dead from the bird flu, you don't have to worry about a depression...

tsk, tsk...