02/21 | Whirlwind spread of avian flu surprises scientists

Link to yesterday's thread: http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=187052

By Elisabeth Rosenthal International Herald Tribune

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 2006

ROME First reports of bird flu cropped up over the weekend in widely separated countries - India, Egypt and France - highlighting the disease's accelerating spread to new territories.

International health experts have been predicting widespread outbreaks of the virus for about six months, since concluding that it could be spread by migrating birds. But the acceleration of the disease's appearance has perplexed experts, who had watched the H5N1 virus stick to its native ground in Asia for nearly five years.

The most alarming of the current outbreaks - if only for their sheer size - were two separate episodes of bird flu in India, one of which killed 50,000 poultry in the last few days. The Indian government, which has long been on alert for the virus because that country is on many migration paths in Asia, began a cull of half a million birds in the hopes of quashing the outbreaks, officials announced Sunday.

But the most perplexing report involved the single case in France - a dead wild duck in the suburbs of Lyon - because migratory birds from Asia that carry the virus do not normally travel there at this time of year.

"After several years in one place, why is it now moving so rapidly?" asked Dr. Samuel Jutzi, director of the Animal Production and Health Division at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome. "There is a lot about this that we just don't know."

The dead duck in France, he said, was "very odd, very difficult to explain." But he added: "What is known is that the width of flyways are very broad, and there may have been a swarm that went further westward than normal."

In Western Europe, the disease has so far been confined to wild migratory birds. Authorities across the Continent are taking extreme measures to protect domestic poultry, with many countries now requiring that all poultry be kept indoors to prevent contact with wild birds that could be infected.

In addition to the duck in France, a wild duck in central Italy was found dead from the virus, the first time bird flu was found so far north in that country.

On Germany's Rügen Island in the Baltic Sea, 18 wild birds were confirmed to have the disease, bringing the total of infected birds there in the past week to 59. Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany visited the island Sunday.

Germany is preparing to cull at least some of the 400,000 domestic birds on the island to ensure the virus does not spread, authorities said. Soldiers from a special army unit are disinfecting vehicles and people leaving Rügen.

In Egypt, the authorities on Sunday closed the Cairo zoo and seven other state-run zoos around the country after 83 birds died there, some from the H5N1 strain of flu, Reuters reported.

Since Friday, when the first announcement was made about bird flu outbreaks, cases involving poultry have been reported in at least eight provinces.

In India the disease has been found in farm birds, raising the possibility of human infection. Although H5N1 does not now readily infect humans or spread among them, more than 160 people have caught the disease worldwide.

Experts are worried that H5N1 could mutate and acquire the ability to spread more easily among humans, starting a worldwide influenza pandemic.

India poultry cull continues

Health officials searched houses in western India on Monday for signs of people infected with the H5N1 virus as a massive poultry culling operation entered its second day, The Associated Press reported from Navapur, India.

Heavy earth movers were used to dig deep pits at poultry farms in Navapur, Maharashtra state, where workers Sunday dumped more than 200,000 bird carcasses along with the gloves, goggles and blue gowns used by health teams.

Plumes of black smoke filled the air over now-deserted poultry farms around Navapur, more than 400 kilometers, or 250 miles, northeast of Bombay, as other farmers burned the chicken carcasses.

The government has said it planned to slaughter some 500,000 birds within a three-kilometer radius of the outbreak.

On Monday, inspectors visited homes and farms surrounding Navapur, a town of 30,000 people, searching for signs of illness and making sure even domestic chickens were killed and properly disposed of.

"It's like a war - they come in completely covered with masks and goggles and check if the carcasses are disposed properly," said Ghulam Vhora, a member of a Navapur poultry farmers' association.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/20/news/spread.php

New Freedom Post #22 from yesterday's thread said:

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02190603/H5N1_North_America.html

Commentary
.
H5N1 Bird Flu in North America?

Recombinomics Commentary
February 19, 2006

59 samples from several species, including whooper (_Cygnus cygnus_) and mute swans (_Cygnus olor_), Canada geese (_Branta canadensis_), tufted ducks (_Aythya fuligula_) and a hawk (_Accipiter gentilis_).

Excessive viral loads indicated highly acute systemic infection. Sequencing of the HA proteolytical cleavage site showed a polybasic pattern (SPQGERRRKKR*GLF) indicative of highly pathogenic properties. Limited phylogenetic analysis of a 600 nt fragment of the HA gene revealed closest relationship with recent isolates from Romania, and, more distantly, with sequences from whooper swans of Lake Erkhul, Mongolia.

All positive cases are restricted to the island of Ruegen, where large numbers of migratory birds are wintering.

The above comments provide additional support for significant levels of the Qinghai strain of H5N1 in western Europe. The above list is limited to dead birds on Germany's Ruegen Island. Prior studies, including the OIE Mission Report indicated about two dozen species shot out of the sky in southern Siberia, carried H5N1 asymptomatically. These data, couple with the widespread detection of H5N1 in dead birds throughout western Europe suggest H5N1 was present in northern Siberia in the summer of 2005 and migrated to western Europe in the fall.

The number of reported die-offs were large (see December map), yet none of the EU countries detected H5N1 until very recently (see February map). Many reported Newcastle disease outbreaks, which are frequently cited in countries that subsequently become H5N1 positive. This linkage goes back to H5N1 in Indonesia and China in 2003 and 2004 and continues to the present. Many countries in the Middle East have also reported recent Newcastle Disease outbreaks, as has India.

The failure of these countries to detect H5N1 is cause for concern. The widespread reporting of H5N1 in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and India suggest surveillance in all of the recently reporting countries is poor. However, reporting in neighboring countries that have yet to confirm H5N1 is beyond poor.

The surveillance shortcomings likely extend to North America. If H5N1 was present in northern Siberia in the summer, it was probably also present in North America because of the connection via the East Atlantic Flyway. Canada did widespread testing on young ducks capture in August of 2005. The ducks were swabbed as part of the banding experiments and H5 was detected in all reporting Provinces. Although H%N1, H5N2, H5N3, and H5N9 were detected, all reported characterizations were of LPAI.

Since the collection were limit to young ducks in the south in August, H5N1 positive birds in the north may have been missed. However, these birds in the north as well as those banded in the south should have migrated into the United States as the temperature in Canada dropped, yet the United States has not reported H5 this season. These negative data raise serious questions about the surveillance systems in North America.

As the H5N1 positive birds in the East Atlantic Fly migrate north in the upcoming months, they will once again head for western Europe and eastern North America.

An evaluation of detection and reporting in western Europe and North America would be useful.

Click to expand...

Sound like the Ostrich straegy, eh?

Iraq

Iraq Testing For New Bid Flu Infections​

by UPI Wire
Feb 20, 2006

WASHINGTON, Feb. 20, 2006 (UPI) -- The Iraqi government will announce Tuesday its compensation package for farmers who have sacrificed more than 1.5 million chickens and ducks to stop bird flu.

The Iraqi Ministry of Health is testing 13 suspected new human cases of bird flu, one in Maysan province and 12 in Sulaimaniya in northern Iraq, according to the United Nations' Integrated Regional Information Networks news service. Another 25 people from the area are also being tested, as they are exhibiting early symptoms.

There have been two confirmed cases of human infection in Iraq, both in Sulaimaniya. The first to die was a 15-year-old girl. Her uncle, who cared for her during her illness, was the second victim. Both died from the disease, which is believed to be contracted by handling infected birds.

http://www.postchronicle.com/news/security/article_2127535.shtml

PCViking said:

Whirlwind spread of avian flu surprises scientists​

By Elisabeth Rosenthal International Herald Tribune

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 2006

ROME First reports of bird flu cropped up over the weekend in widely separated countries - India, Egypt and France - highlighting the disease's accelerating spread to new territories.

International health experts have been predicting widespread outbreaks of the virus for about six months, since concluding that it could be spread by migrating birds. But the acceleration of the disease's appearance has perplexed experts, who had watched the H5N1 virus stick to its native ground in Asia for nearly five years.

The most alarming of the current outbreaks - if only for their sheer size - were two separate episodes of bird flu in India, one of which killed 50,000 poultry in the last few days. The Indian government, which has long been on alert for the virus because that country is on many migration paths in Asia, began a cull of half a million birds in the hopes of quashing the outbreaks, officials announced Sunday.

But the most perplexing report involved the single case in France - a dead wild duck in the suburbs of Lyon - because migratory birds from Asia that carry the virus do not normally travel there at this time of year.

"After several years in one place, why is it now moving so rapidly?" asked Dr. Samuel Jutzi, director of the Animal Production and Health Division at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome. "There is a lot about this that we just don't know."

The dead duck in France, he said, was "very odd, very difficult to explain." But he added: "What is known is that the width of flyways are very broad, and there may have been a swarm that went further westward than normal."

In Western Europe, the disease has so far been confined to wild migratory birds. Authorities across the Continent are taking extreme measures to protect domestic poultry, with many countries now requiring that all poultry be kept indoors to prevent contact with wild birds that could be infected.

In addition to the duck in France, a wild duck in central Italy was found dead from the virus, the first time bird flu was found so far north in that country.

On Germany's Rügen Island in the Baltic Sea, 18 wild birds were confirmed to have the disease, bringing the total of infected birds there in the past week to 59. Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany visited the island Sunday.

Germany is preparing to cull at least some of the 400,000 domestic birds on the island to ensure the virus does not spread, authorities said. Soldiers from a special army unit are disinfecting vehicles and people leaving Rügen.

In Egypt, the authorities on Sunday closed the Cairo zoo and seven other state-run zoos around the country after 83 birds died there, some from the H5N1 strain of flu, Reuters reported.

Since Friday, when the first announcement was made about bird flu outbreaks, cases involving poultry have been reported in at least eight provinces.

In India the disease has been found in farm birds, raising the possibility of human infection. Although H5N1 does not now readily infect humans or spread among them, more than 160 people have caught the disease worldwide.

Experts are worried that H5N1 could mutate and acquire the ability to spread more easily among humans, starting a worldwide influenza pandemic.

India poultry cull continues

Health officials searched houses in western India on Monday for signs of people infected with the H5N1 virus as a massive poultry culling operation entered its second day, The Associated Press reported from Navapur, India.

Heavy earth movers were used to dig deep pits at poultry farms in Navapur, Maharashtra state, where workers Sunday dumped more than 200,000 bird carcasses along with the gloves, goggles and blue gowns used by health teams.

Plumes of black smoke filled the air over now-deserted poultry farms around Navapur, more than 400 kilometers, or 250 miles, northeast of Bombay, as other farmers burned the chicken carcasses.

The government has said it planned to slaughter some 500,000 birds within a three-kilometer radius of the outbreak.

On Monday, inspectors visited homes and farms surrounding Navapur, a town of 30,000 people, searching for signs of illness and making sure even domestic chickens were killed and properly disposed of.

"It's like a war - they come in completely covered with masks and goggles and check if the carcasses are disposed properly," said Ghulam Vhora, a member of a Navapur poultry farmers' association.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/20/news/spread.php

Click to expand...

Good catch PCV......but terrible news!!!!

Ramp up time, hope all are prepping for the worst here. What really bugs me is that it's being reported all around the world and not a peep here in CONUS...just wondering...not a single case in bird or human?

Spain

Agriculture Minister calls for calm as more dead birds are found in Spain​

By m.p.
Mon, 20 Feb 2006, 23:28

There have been another two cases of dead birds found in Spain, since the three cases reported in La Rioja, Navarra and Móstoles at the weekend.
Three swans and twenty or so pigeons have been found dead in León, and the bodies of another two wild birds were found in the Delta del Llobregat. All the bodies are being analysed for possible infection with Bird Flu.

The government and health experts have made a plea for calm, and the Agriculture Minister, Elena Espinosa, has issued a reminder that 5,500 analyses have been carried out on the bodies of dead birds in the past year, and the results in all the cases were negative.

The European Commission has voted against financial aid for countries where sales of poultry have dropped amid fears of Bird Flu contagion.

http://www.typicallyspanish.com/news/publish/article_2733.shtml

It is probably biowarfare. And, no, it's not the neocons. . .

Well, here's an interesting addition to the problems...in addition to the looming and developing civil war and oil crisis in Nigeria (see these TB2K threads- http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=186875 and http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=186903 )

Uh,oh.....

Bird flu spreads to three more states, capital in Nigeria

ABUJA, Feb. 20 (Xinhuanet) -- Three more Nigerian states and the west African country's capital Abuja have been affected by the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus, bringing to seven the number of locations already identified with the disease, Information Minister Frank Nweke said on Monday.

　　The new locations affected are Bauchi and Zamfara, Katsina and Abuja which Nweke described as contiguous to the states, Kano, Kaduna and Plateau, where the outbreak was first isolated.

"The situation is under control to the extent that the outbreakis mostly localized to contiguous states," the minister told reporters on behalf of the bird flu crisis management center, which was set up by President Olusegun Obasanjo early this month.

"Extensive diagnostic tests have been conducted and are ongoingamongst poultry workers nationwide and to date no human cases havebeen recorded in Nigeria," Nweke added.

The outbreak of bird flu started in January 10 this year at a commercial farm in Kaduna but was only confirmed on February 8. There are fears that the virus could reach the thickly populated southern cities like Lagos.

Nigeria is the first country on the African continent to reportan outbreak of the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus which has claimed atleast 91 lives, mostly in Asia, since 1997.

Fuzzychick said:

Ramp up time, hope all are prepping for the worst here. What really bugs me is that it's being reported all around the world and not a peep here in CONUS...just wondering...not a single case in bird or human?

Click to expand...

There was a great movie that came out a couple of years ago: "Winged Migration"... where they actually flew with birds as they migrated... I highly reccomend it!

When you look at the patterns... it's hard to see that it's not gotten to the Western Hemisphere or more probably hasn't been detected yet...

Post #5 said:

The surveillance shortcomings likely extend to North America. If H5N1 was present in northern Siberia in the summer, it was probably also present in North America because of the connection via the East Atlantic Flyway.

Click to expand...

A picture is worth a thousand words....

Not exactly surprising

It is a certainty in my mind that anyone, layman or scientist, who has been following this spread and has even a modicum of understanding about the patterns of bird travel, have any surprise at all.

In fact, even Germany having it as long ago as last August is not a surprise.

The only surprise is that people get paid to write this stuff.

....moving so fast because perhaps things are getting a bit of HELP

Hungary

February 21, 2006

Tests confirm first H5N1 cases in Hungary​

BUDAPEST (Reuters) - A British laboratory detected the deadly H5N1 bird flu strain in three dead swans found in Hungary last week, confirming the first cases of the virus in the country, the government said on Tuesday.

"According to the official British tests, the three dead swans found in Hungary last week had the H5N1 bird flu strain," spokesman Andras Batiz said in a statement.

He said this week Hungarian authorities have sent four further samples from swans to Britain for testing from the same area in southern Hungary where the three swans had been found.

Batiz said there was no need for further precautionary measures after the steps taken last week when the swans found near the villages of Nagybaracska and Csatalja had tested positive for the H5 avian influenza virus.

Hungarian authorities had applied the same precautionary measures as other European Union member states in which the H5N1 virus has been confirmed or was suspected in wild birds.

Precautionary measures include setting up a 3-km protection zone around the area where the swans were found, and a surrounding surveillance zone of 10 km.

There is one large poultry farm in the vicinity of the affected villages, a duck farm housing 3,000 birds. There is also a chicken farm just outside the 10-km safety zone around the villages in Bacs-Kiskun county.

Poultry must be kept indoors in the area, but there are no nationwide restrictions yet.

Poultry sales in Hungary have been so far unaffected.

The pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus has spread from Asia to Europe and Africa, infecting 171 people since late 2003 and killing at least 93 of them by the end of last week.

ttp://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2006/2/21/worldupdates/2006-02-21T144915Z_01_NOOTR_RTRJONC_0_-237642-1&sec=Worldupdates

Malaysia

Malaysia culls chickens in bid to halt bird flu​

Malaysia said today it will slaughter all poultry in and around four villages following confirmation of the country's first outbreak of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu in over a year.

"We will carry out the culling exercise tonight as it is easier to catch the free-range chickens," Noraidah Abdul Rahim, veterinary services director for central Selangor state, told AFP.

"Birds in a one kilometre radius area surrounding the affected areas will be culled," she added.

Malaysia late Monday confirmed a new outbreak of avian influenza after 40 chickens died in four villages just north of the capital Kuala Lumpur. Some 110 birds were culled that night.

Ms Noraidah said the dead chickens were not from commercial farms but were kept by individuals who allowed their birds to roam freely.

"I didn't know that my chickens had the virus," said Mohamad Idris Ismail from Pasir Wardieburn village, one of the four affected.

"My chickens were dying at a rate of eight chickens a day for the past three weeks," the 53-year-old said.

"They started looking sickly and weak, and just died in their sleep. I've been rearing chickens for nearly two years now and I've never seen anything like this."

Selangor and Federal Territory Poultry Traders Association adviser Lee Chong Meng urged the public not be alarmed by the outbreak.

"There are no commercial farms in the Federal Territory. Hence, it is safe to eat their chickens," he said.

Mr Lee said it was possible that villagers could have smuggled in fighting roosters from neighbouring Thailand and these birds may have infected the free-range chickens.

Neighbouring Singapore, the biggest market for Malaysian poultry, has suspended poultry and egg imports from Selangor.

So far, there have been no human deaths in Malaysia due to the virus.

-AFP

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200602/s1575222.htm

India

Delhi hospitals set up special wards for bird flu​

Tuesday, February 21, 2006 04:05:30 pmPTI

NEW DELHI: Hospitals in the national capital have set up special wards for treatment of any suspected human case of bird flu while the Delhi Government on Tuesday instructed food joints in the city to procure chickens from the authorised Ghazipur poultry market only.

A 10-bedded ward has been created in the trauma centre of All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) and another ward, with 20 beds, has been set up at the Deendayal Upadhyay Hospital to treat any suspected human case of avian flu.

The information was given at a meeting convened by Delhi Health Minister Yoganand Shastri of the Medical Superintendents of 12 city hospitals to take stock of their preparedness.

Laboratories of Maulana Azad Hospital and AIIMS have been identified for conducting confirmatory blood tests for suspect human cases.

"We are fully prepared to meet any eventualities in Delhi," Shastri said after the meeting, informing that three million doses of the anti-flu medicine Tamiflu were now available in Delhi and there was no (no) need to panic.

He said the government on Tuesday sent instructions to all the city hotels asking them to procure chickens only from authorised Ghazipur poultry market.

"Our doctors are checking the chicken in Ghazipur poultry market before they are sold and I have asked the hotels to buy chickens only from the Ghazipur Market," he said.

Some city hotels and restaurants have already stopped serving chicken since Monday.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1422489.cms

Slovakia

TUESDAY 21/02/2006 11:40:41

Slovakia confirms bird flu outbreak​

Slovakia today became the eighth EU member state to confirm outbreaks of bird flu.

The H5 virus has been found in two wild birds, and samples were being sent to the EU`s special laboratory in Weybridge, Surrey, to establish whether the cases involve the deadly H5N1 strain.

The findings were notified to the European Commission by the Slovak authorities as EU veterinary experts met in Brussels to consider whether to approve French and Dutch requests for an immediate programme of "preventive vaccination" against bird flu.

http://u.tv/newsroom/indepth.asp?id=70673&pt=n

almost ready said:

It is a certainty in my mind that anyone, layman or scientist, who has been following this spread and has even a modicum of understanding about the patterns of bird travel, have any surprise at all.

In fact, even Germany having it as long ago as last August is not a surprise.

The only surprise is that people get paid to write this stuff.

Click to expand...

Ain't that the truth? These reporters are the scary people...

Thousands tested in India over bird flu fears​

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/new...101725Z_01_BOM304378_RTRUKOC_0_UK-BIRDFLU.xml

Tue Feb 21, 2006 10:17 AM GMT
By Krittivas Mukherjee

MUMBAI (Reuters) - Bird flu maintained its relentless march across the globe on Tuesday with Malaysia and Hungary the latest countries to report outbreaks, while in India hundreds of people turned up at medical camps in flu-hit areas.

At least 15 nations have reported outbreaks in birds this month, an indication that the virus, which has killed more than 90 people, is spreading faster.

Migratory birds are thought to be at least one way the disease is being carried and more than 30 countries have now reported cases since 2003, seven of them recording human infections.

Bosnia confirmed its first cases of bird flu on Monday, while Malaysia said the H5N1 avian flu virus killed chickens near the capital. Tests also confirmed the virus in three dead swans found in Hungary last week, the government said on Tuesday.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) said on Monday that mutations in the H5N1 virus are seemingly making it more deadly in chickens and more resistant in the environment, but without yet increasing the threat to humans.

"Human infections remain a rare event. The virus does not spread easily from birds to humans or readily from person to person," the WHO said on its Web site (www.who.int).

But scientists say the virus has already developed the ability to infect more species of animals and the fear is H5N1 could eventually mutate to pass easily from human to human.

In India, 10 people have been quarantined as officials scrambled to contain a major outbreak of bird flu in poultry before it took hold in the world's second most populous nation.

So far, there are no confirmed human cases but thousands of people have been tested just in case.

"About 500 people have walked into makeshift medical camps in Navapur (town) to get checked for cough and cold since Monday evening," said T.P. Doke, health director of the western state of Maharashtra.

DOOR-TO-DOOR

Doke said authorities had completed a door-to-door search in Navapur where 30,000 people had been examined. Another Maharashtra state official said about 300,000 birds have been culled so far with tens of thousands more to be killed.

Malaysia stepped up its defences against bird flu on Tuesday, killing poultry and sending health officials to track any human infections, after it reported its first case of the H5N1 virus in more than a year.

"There's no cause for worry because no human beings are infected," Malaysian Health Minister Chua Soi Lek Chua said.

The fresh case of bird flu hit shares of poultry farms and prompted neighbour Singapore to suspend imports from the central Malaysian state of Selangor, where officials said the virus had killed 40 chickens last week.

In Europe, officials urged people to carry on eating poultry meat after a string of outbreaks in birds, saying European Union authorities had the means available to wipe out the disease.

The WHO says thoroughly cooked poultry meat and eggs are safe to eat but that assurance has failed to calm consumers. Sales of poultry and poultry products have plunged in Europe, parts of Africa and now India.

In Italy, 30,000 workers have been laid off in the poultry industry as demand for chicken meat plunged by 70 percent.

Egyptian officials said bird flu had spread to new parts of the country, adding to the devastation in a poultry industry which provided a vital part of Egyptians' diet.

Sales of poultry products have fallen 25 to 30 percent in India since the outbreak was first reported at the weekend, an industry official said on Tuesday.

China's agriculture minister told state media more bird flu outbreaks were possible this spring because of the movement of migratory birds after the winter and more shipping of poultry as the new breeding season begins.

Eight people have died of bird flu in China and more than 30 outbreaks in poultry and wild birds were recorded last year. State media said on Tuesday the government has banned imports of pet and wild birds from 10 countries recently hit by bird flu.

Experts in the United States said H5N1 was likely to cross over into people again and again if it even once acquires the ability to pass from human to human.

In theory, the virus only has to mutate once, in one person, to spark a pandemic. But the researchers argue that this could happen again and again, in several places around the world.

"At best, a containment policy will only postpone the emergence of a pandemic, 'buying time' to prepare for its effects," wrote Dr. Marc Lipsitch and colleagues from the Harvard School of Public Health and Dr. Carl Bergstrom from the University of Washington.

(Additional reporting by Adeel Halim in NANDURBAR, Rina Chandran in MUMBAI, Kamil Zaheer in NEW DELHI, Richard Waddington in GENEVA, Maggie Fox in WASHINGTON and Krisztina Than in BUDAPEST)

H5 Confirmed in Bosnia​

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02200603/H5_Bosnia.html

Recombinomics Commentary
February 20, 2006

Bosnia reported its first case of bird flu in two swans on Monday but said further tests at a British laboratory would be needed to determine whether it is the deadly H5N1 strain of the virus.

"It is H5," veterinary office head Jozo Bagaric said, adding samples had already been sent to the European Union's reference laboratory in Weybridge. Results were expected by the end of the week.

He said bird flu was confirmed in two out of four swans that were culled at Malo Plivsko Jezero lake near the western Bosnian town of Jajce on Friday.

The number of European countries confirming H5N1 for the first time continues to increase. Swans are the most common source of the detected H5N1, but the detection may be more related to the targeting of these birds for testing because so many have been positive.

The failure to detect H5N1 until now is cause for concern. Although there may have been some recent spread, dead swans have been reported in Croatia, Romania, and Askatran for months. The H5N1 from these birds trace back to the Qinghai strain, which was initially reported to be killing migratory birds at Qinghai Lake in May of 2005. Migration into Europe was expected in the fall, and the detection of H5N1 by the countries above indicate that such migration did happen.

Although European countries were warned of this migration and enhanced surveillance was announced, the vast majority of H5 or H5N1 announcements have been made in the past few weeks (see map). Similar recent announcements have been made in the Middle East, Africa, and India, although birds would have migrated into these regions months ago.

Soon the wintering birds will begin to migrate north to spring locations, and the migration will again target the countries that are reporting detection.

Improvement in surveillance of H5N1 would be useful, since the majority of H5N1 infections in migratory waterfowl does not create fatal infections.

It's going to be interesting to see where the mutation occurs that leads to "human to human" transmission and the so called "Index case"............Ray

Croatia

Last Update: Wednesday, February 22, 2006. 0:00am (AEDT)

Croatia confirms new case of bird flu​

The highly pathogenic form of the H5N1 bird flu virus has been confirmed in a wild swan found dead last week on a Croatian island, the Agriculture Ministry says.

"The swan found dead on (the southern island of) Ciovo was infected by the H5N1 virus," Agriculture Ministry spokesman Mladen Pavic told AFP.

The deadly form of the virus was first detected in Croatia in October, in the eastern part of the country, but its spread was halted by strict containment measures.

Agriculture Minister Petar Cobankovic said earlier that the island, located near the southern town of Trogir, was an unusual location for the species.

He says Ciovo has a rather small number of poultry, judging there was a "very small probability that poultry there could be in danger".

Meanwhile, veterinary authorities started to disinfect a three-kilometre zone surrounding the beach where the dead swan was found.

During the past two weeks, tests carried out on some 30 swans in Croatia have all turned out negative for bird flu.

Since 2003, the H5N1 virus has claimed at least 90 human lives, mostly in Asia.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200602/s1575331.htm

PA Health Ministry Declares State of Emergency Due to Avian Flu
13:13 Feb 21, '06 / 23 Shevat 5766

(IsraelNN.com) More than 600 chicken have died of avian flu in Gaza.

The Palestinian Authority's Health Ministry has declared a state of emergency and is asking citizens to report any cases of suspected infections or unnatural deaths in birds, though continue to deny that the virus had been positively identified in the dead birds.

Cases have recently been confirmed in Egypt, with whom the PA does much trade.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/news.php3?id=98933

shakytoad said:

....moving so fast because perhaps things are getting a bit of HELP

Click to expand...

huh?

NOT happy news for Canada:

http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/story.html?id=6e99394f-b5e7-4bd1-8b40-6a6677ba7acd


Flu pandemic would kill 1 in 20 Canadians

Think-tank report warns country ill-prepared



James Gordon, The Ottawa Citizen
Published: Tuesday, February 21, 2006

An "imminent" flu pandemic would kill one in 20 Canadians and grind the manufacturing industry to a halt, a major economic think-tank predicts, and Canada is not prepared to deal with it.

"Border disruptions would shatter integrated production lines and could last more than a year," says the new research report from the Conference Board of Canada. "Direct medical costs could surpass hundreds of millions of dollars."

The report calls on Canadian businesses to get ready by reducing the risk of disease transmission in the workplace and forming plans to maintain essential business functions in the event of high employee absenteeism. It also advises companies to co-ordinate with government agencies to respond to such a pandemic.

The report, titled: Facing Risks: Global Security Trends and Canada, is the fourth in a series of five global economic forecasts issued by the board.

It notes health crises "will worsen existing inequalities in Canada," such as concentration of income and regional disparities.

"The continuing challenges confronting Canada's public health-care system will create profound differences between those who can afford private care and those who cannot," the report says.

A health crisis isn't the only thing that could drive a deeper wedge between the rich and poor, the report warns. Transnational crime will also widen the gap.

"Criminal organizations do not need an epidemiological disaster to enrich their coffers," the report says, putting the value of worldwide criminal activity between $500 billion U.S. and $1.5 trillion U.S.

"This value is likely to increase in coming years, riding the many waves of globalization -- from increasingly efficient transportation and communications networks, to the perpetuation of pockets of extremely poor governance," the document reads.

To protect against health and crime risks, the board suggests enhancing and tailoring social programs to certain "vulnerable populations.

"There is some evidence that economic insecurity and poverty in Canada will be concentrated in distinct groups, particularly among aboriginal people and recent visible minority immigrants," the organization says. "The consequences of their vulnerabilities will generate wider social ills that will affect all Canadians."

The six-page report also makes reference to international terrorism, saying Canada is vulnerable to attacks on energy infrastructure aimed at disrupting service to the United States.

"Managing our relations with the United States will be a perennial source of concern, especially since the primary market for our resources will remain the United States," it says.

On a global level, the board predicts: "The rise of Asia will have momentous security implications. A very cold peace will prevail and skirmishes may erupt between larger powers and their smaller neighbours."

In addition, more state and non-state organizations will obtain powerful weapons of mass destruction. Balances of power will keep them in check, but "the risk of dangerous accidents will increase."

The Conference Board of Canada did not respond to a request for an interview about the report.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/new...04895_RTRUKOC_0_UK-BIRDFLU-BRITAIN-RAVENS.xml


Tower cages ravens to guard against bird flu

Tue Feb 21, 2006 10:33 AM GMT170
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LONDON (Reuters) - The Tower of London, home to the Crown Jewels, has put its famous ravens into indoor aviaries to protect them from bird flu.

A spokesman for the fortress, a former prison on the banks of the Thames, said on Tuesday the six black birds had been moved from lawns outside the 11th century castle into specially built cages in one of its towers.

"Although we don't like having to bring the Tower ravens inside, we believe it is the safest thing to do for their own protection, given the speed that the virus is moving across Europe," said Raven Master Derrick Coyle.

"We are taking advice on the vaccinations against Avian Flu, and in the meantime, we will continue to give our six ravens as much care and attention as they need," he added.

Bird flu cases have been reported across Europe this month, marking a sudden resurgence of the deadly H5N1 influenza virus, which scientists fear could trigger a pandemic if it mutates and jumps from person to person.

Many of the outbreaks have involved wild birds and the World Health Organisation says migratory fowl are believed to be one way the virus is spreading.

Legend has it that the ravens must stay at the Tower of London or the castle and the Kingdom will fall, so they are protected by a special decree issued in the 17th century by Charles II.

Notoriously unfriendly, the birds -- Branwen, Hugine, Munin, Gwyllum, Thor and Baldrick -- have their wings clipped so that they cannot fly away.

If a country doesn't look for it, it wont be found.

Countries aren't looking too hard for the flu. People that have been watching the disease for some time realize that the flu has been incubating silently and even popping up occasionally in other countries. I, and others think that it's been misdiagnosed or not even suspected in humans. The testing for H5N1 is expensive, and if not caught early enough the virus moves from nose and throat to the lungs and test show negatives when the person in fact has the virus.

It's not just popping up suddenly, people are just now taking the threat seriously and testing for it and finding it.

Rubythedane said:

Countries aren't looking too hard for the flu. People that have been watching the disease for some time realize that the flu has been incubating silently and even popping up occasionally in other countries. I, and others think that it's been misdiagnosed or not even suspected in humans. The testing for H5N1 is expensive, and if not caught early enough the virus moves from nose and throat to the lungs and test show negatives when the person in fact has the virus.

It's not just popping up suddenly, people are just now taking the threat seriously and testing for it and finding it.

Click to expand...

I agree!

Rubythedane said:

Countries aren't looking too hard for the flu. People that have been watching the disease for some time realize that the flu has been incubating silently and even popping up occasionally in other countries. I, and others think that it's been misdiagnosed or not even suspected in humans. The testing for H5N1 is expensive, and if not caught early enough the virus moves from nose and throat to the lungs and test show negatives when the person in fact has the virus.

It's not just popping up suddenly, people are just now taking the threat seriously and testing for it and finding it.

Click to expand...

New Freedom said:

I agree!

Click to expand...

and when are they going to say that the hideous flu going around this season, is a mild first wave of avian flu?

India

8 fresh human cases suspected as culling continues​

Press Trust of India

Navapur (Maharashtra), February 21, 2006

In fresh suspected cases of bird flu, eight persons were admitted to a hospital.

Health workers on Tuesday culled more than 1.5 lakh chickens and destroyed an equal number of eggs.

As the culling operation continued within the three km area with only 50,000 birds remaining to be eliminated, the authorities decided to extend the area of the exercise up to 10 km radius of Navapur covering organised and unorganised sectors bringing in its sweep remaining six lakh chickens.

The culling of over 60,000 chickens in Uchal taluka of Surat district of Gujarat near Navapur was completed after which authorities turned their focus on bird feed imported by poultry farmers to ascertain if they were infected.

The new patients with symptoms of suspected avian influenza were admitted to isolation ward of the sub district hospital on Monday following the door-to-door medical check, taking the total number of patients under observation in the ward to 11, Civil Surgeon Dr MV Munde said.

"There are eleven patients now admitted in the isolated ward for suspected bird flu, including eight who were admitted on Monday following door-to-door survey and three others were admitted on Sunday," Munde said.

The blood samples of all these people were sent to National Institute of Virology in Pune for testing and reports are expected in three days, he added.

The three patients, who were admitted on Sunday, were those in contact with the Ganesh Sonar who died in Surat last week and two of his family members, Munde said.

Expediting culling operations, ten earth moving machines were pressed into service to help burial of the birds.

About 1.58 lakh eggs were destroyed as part of efforts to stop the spread of bird flu and 25 tonnes of feed material disposed of, Joint Secretary Animal Husbandry Department Upma Chaudhary said.

Maharashtra government scaled down the figures of chicken to be culled from nine lakhs to close to two lakh birds saying poultry farm owners had either sold or buried the remaining birds before the culling operation began.

With nearly 1.5 lakh birds having been culled since Monday, Government claimed all birds in the three-km radius sealed area of the bird flu-infected Navapur will be culled by the end of the day.

"Culling process in the 10-km radius outside the sealed area will commence tomorrow," Maharashtra Animal Husbandry Minister Anees Ahmed said.

Earlier, Chief Minister, Vilasrao Deshmukh reassured that bird flu had not infested any other part of the state amid reports that 1000 chicken had died mysteriously at Hingoli district of Marathwada in central Maharashtra on Monday.

As the Government efforts to pin down the cause of the virus gathered momentum, a show-cause was issued to chicken giant Venkateswara Hatcheries for allegedly supplying bird flu affected chicken to two poultries in Navapur.

In Navapur town and surrounding areas, local authorities including Zilla Parishads are spraying disinfectants and engaged in fogging operations, he said adding operations to completely eradicate the virus will take two to three months as a huge quantity of litter and other garbage have to be destroyed.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_1631996,001300820000.htm

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Actuaries to Research Avian Flu Pandemic on Life, Health Industries</font>

February 21, 2006
<A href="http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2006/02/21/65654.htm">www.insurencejournal.com</a></center>
The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is beginning research on the possible implications of an avian flu pandemic on the insurance industry. The SOA expects to provide insight into the potential impact a pandemic could have on life and health insurers.

Jim Toole, fellow of the Society of Actuaries and managing director of MBA Actuaries, will undertake the effort. Toole brings his actuarial expertise in risk measurement and management to address the readiness of the insurance industry to face a pandemic. </b>

"Advance planning is critical. An insurer needs to do more than just study how a pandemic might affect the amount and timing of claim dollars it pays to its policyholders. It will also need to consider how it will function at unprecedented claim volumes, when as many as 50 percent of its employees are ill or absent providing care for family members. The research will assess the total risk to an insurer, discussing vital considerations for before, during and after an event that might mitigate or exacerbate the consequences of a severe or moderate pandemic," said Toole.

Tom Edwalds, fellow of the Society of Actuaries and chairperson of the SOA's oversight committee for this research, believes "the possible effects of pandemic influenza are important to the U.S. life and health insurance industry because it may increase the severity and frequency of the payment of death benefits and medical treatment compared to anticipated, potentially affecting an insurer's or reinsurer's solvency. For actuaries and other risk management professionals examining the risk of pandemic influenza, understanding the potential impact of the event on U.S. mortality and morbidity is critical. We believe this research will be a useful resource for them."

Results from this research initiative will be made available during the SOA's Spring Health Meeting in June in Hollywood, Fla.

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<B><center>February 21, 2006]

<font size=+1 color=brown>Children's Story is Latest Weapon in War Against Avian Flu; </font>
Booklet Part of AED's Efforts Against the Disease in Asia, Africa and U.S.

<A href="http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/-childrens-story-latest-weapon-war-against-avian-flu-/2006/02/21/1391982.htm">www.tmcnet.com</a></center>
(Comtex Finance Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge)WASHINGTON, Feb 21, 2006 (U.S. Newswire via COMTEX) --There's a new weapon in the battle against avian flu: a children's story.

"Zandi's Song," a story about a girl who helps teach her village about avian flu, is part of the Academy for Educational Development's (AED) efforts to prevent the spread of the disease in Africa and other parts of the world.</b>

AED, a nonprofit organization working to solve critical problems throughout the world, created the "Zandi's Song" booklet and accompanying materials to teach African schoolchildren about avian flu and involve them in educating their communities about the disease. The booklet also comes with posters, a fact sheet, bookmarks, and a 12-page teacher's guide that explains step by step how to help children participate in preventing and containing avian flu in their communities.

In many countries where avian flu is threatening flocks, poultry is a primary source of both nutrition and income for many families. "Chickens are considered mobile savings banks," says Dr. Susan Zimicki, director of AED's infectious disease initiative. "When birds are destroyed to stop the spread of avian influenza, families can lose their livelihoods and primary food source."

"The key to preventing the spread of the disease is educating people who are most at-risk for contracting it," Zimicki says.

AED is testing the effectiveness of "Zandi's Song" in Kenya, but because of the recent outbreak of avian flu in Nigeria, advance copies of the booklet and accompanying materials have been released and are available at http://www.aed.org/avianflu. They can be duplicated with the acceptance of a license agreement. Once field-testing is completed, final versions will be posted. The materials can be easily adapted so that they are suitable for use in other countries.

Reaching Poultry Farmers in Southeast Asia

In Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Indonesia, AED is implementing an avian flu communications campaign on behalf of the United States Agency for International Development. AED's initial research among backyard poultry farmers showed that, while many people knew about avian flu, fewer knew specific ways to prevent or contain the disease.

Through partners such as the Lao Journalist's Association and Veterinarians Without Borders, AED is now working in those countries to help poultry farmers and vendors in remote and rural areas handle and manage their birds in ways that reduce the risk of the birds contracting and spreading avian flu. AED is using radio and television to reach small farmers and their families with persuasive messages. In addition, to help address the impact that destroying their birds has on them, AED is examining the critical issues of economic security and food supply.

Protecting Workers in the United States

AED is also focusing its efforts on containing the disease in the United States. AED developed materials on preventing the spread of avian and other types of flu for the Service Employees International Union. Most of the union's two million members work in health care settings. SEIU has used the web-friendly fact sheets and FAQs at health and safety training for union members in New York City.

---

Founded in 1961, the Academy for Educational Development (http://www.aed.org) is a nonprofit organization committed to building the capacity of individuals, communities, and institutions to become more self-sufficient. AED works in all the major areas of human development, with a focus on improving education, health, and economic opportunities for the least advantaged in the United States and developing countries.

http://www.usnewswire.com

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<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Animal-to-human disease transmission 'unnaturally fast' </font>

Press Association
Monday February 20, 2006
<A href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/birdflu/story/0,,1714072,00.html">www.guardian.co.uk</a></center>
Three-quarters of the 38 species of harmful organisms and viruses identified in the past 25 years are thought to have "jumped" from animals to humans, according to US and Scottish scientists.

The researchers said should the potentially lethal H5N1 strain of bird flu mutate into a virus that can spread between humans, it would simply be part of an alarming ongoing trend.</b>

Scientists now know of more than 1,400 kinds of bacteria, viruses, protozoa, fungi and worms that can affect human health.

Professor Mark Woolhouse, from the University of Edinburgh, said the rising number of infections passing from animals to humans could be due to human activity such as global travel and trade and the expansion of cities into natural habits such as rainforests.

He told the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) annual meeting in St Louis that the apparent rise in the number of pathogens - agents such as bacteria that transmit disease - was "too fast" simply to be caused by natural processes such as evolution.

Professor Woolhouse said: "New pathogens are being reported at a rate of one or two a year. Humans have always been attacked by novel pathogens, but it does seem to be happening very fast and we have to ask questions about that. We need to know where they are coming from, why it is happening, and what we can do about it."

His research, published in the journal Trends in Ecology and Evolution, highlights the dangers of "zoonotic" infections that pass from animals to humans.

He said a vast range of animals carried organisms that could infect humans. They included everything from cows to chickens, rats, bats and palm civets, which spread the Sars virus. Other examples of zoonotic diseases included tuberculosis, smallpox, measles and Aids.

Almost 60% of the known species of human pathogen are zoonotic. But Dr Nina Marano, from the National Centre for Infectious Diseases in Atlanta, Georgia, said 75% of newly emerging diseases originated in animals.

Prof Woolhouse said vets and doctors needed to collaborate to identify potentially zoonotic diseases and to devise treatments.

He said: "Veterinary students have to learn about the public health implications of the diseases they study. The medics really do need to get their act together. If you read any book about emerging diseases, it starts with the first human case."

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<B><center>[February 20, 2006]

<font size=+1 color=blue>Bird flu begins to bite; neighbours shut doors</font>

<A href="http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/-bird-flu-begins-bite-neighbours-shut-doors-/2006/02/20/1389363.htm">www.tmcnet.com</a></center>
(The Times of India Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge)NEW DELHI: It isn't chicken feed. Bird flu is beginning to hurt as the Rs 28,000-crore poultry industry is turning out to be the first big casualty of the avian flu virus scare now spreading across the country.

On Monday, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Japan, Bahrain and the UAE banned poultry imports from India. With domestic demand also nose-diving, the poultry industry fears that losses could mount to over Rs 2,000 crore in the coming days. According to industry estimates, sales and exports have already been hit to the tune of Rs 50 crore since Saturday, when the news broke.</b>

On Monday, shares of hatchery companies - like Venky's (India), Srinivasa Hatcheries, Hind Industries and SKM Egg Products - slumped. Investors also sold farm-product makers and hotels, fearing a drop in revenues, and bought shares of drug firms, like Cipla and Ranbaxy, that may profit from sale of flu drugs.

India is the world's fifth largest producer of eggs and the ninth largest producer of poultry broiler.

The slump in domestic demand was apparent from the falling price of chicken. As the news about bird flu spread, even offtake of eggs and poultry in the domestic markets have dipped by around 40% across the country. "Prices in some local markets are already down 50%. It's a heavy loss for the industry," said Anuradha Desai of Venkateswara Hatcheries, who is also the chairperson of National Egg Co-ordination Committee.

Already, all domestic airlines have withdrawn chicken from their on-board menu, while hotels have announced that they will stop serving cold cuts till the situation improves. "It's a precautionary measure and we are just going vegetarian temporarily," an Indian Airlines official said.

Jet Airways added that while it is discontinuing serving chicken and egg dishes on all its flights, in-flight services will have a few non-vegetarian dishes, other than chicken.

Restaurants like Nirula's, Kentucky Fried Chicken, Pindi and Gulati are hoping customers won't chicken out. "We continue to serve chicken burgers, but are watching the situation. We haven't cut down on stocks yet, but if the customer demand shifts we will move accordingly," said Nirula's GM (marketing) Sandeep Madan.

Japan has cancelled an order for a Rs 7-crore shipment from India's largest poultry firm, Ventakeswara Hatcheries, an arm of the Venky's group. Export shipment of poultry products worth another Rs 10 crore is already bound for the Middle East and Africa but exporters fear containers on the high seas may not be accepted.

"The Japan order itself was not big, but had the potential of growing to become an order worth a few hundred crores," Venkateswara Hatcheries chairperson Anuradha Desai said.

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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>State of Emergency Declared in PA </font>

07:54 Feb 21, '06 / 23 Shevat 5766
<A href="http://www.israelnn.com/news.php3?id=98884">www.israelnn.com</a></center>
(IsraelNN.com) Fearing the outbreak of bird flu, Palestinian Authority (PA) officials declared a state of emergency on Monday.</b>

Some 300 chickens in a northern Gaza died, presumably from bird flu farmers report, prompting the alert.

PA Health Ministry officials report tests on the dead birds are being conducted to determine the precise cause of death.

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<B><center><font size=+1 color=red>Thousands Tested for Bird Flu in India</font>

Feb 21, 2006 — By Jeremy Smith
<A href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=1644960">abcnews.go.com</a></center>
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The H5N1 strain of bird flu was confirmed in Hungary and Croatia on Tuesday as the deadly virus spread around the globe, while EU officials considered measures to vaccinate millions of birds in France and the Netherlands.

In India, where officials are scrambling to contain a major outbreak in poultry, hundreds of people turned up for screening at medical camps in areas where bird flu has been reported. </b>

At least 15 nations have reported outbreaks in birds this month, an indication that the virus, which has killed more than 90 people, is spreading faster.

Migratory birds are thought to be at least one way the disease is being carried and more than 30 countries have now reported cases since 2003, seven of them recording human infections.

Hungary said on Tuesday that tests showed the virus in three dead swans found last week, while Croatia also confirmed H5N1 had been found in a dead swan on an island in the Adriatic.

Bosnia confirmed its first cases of bird flu on Monday, while Malaysia said H5N1 killed chickens near the capital.

In Brussels, EU animal health experts considered requests from France and the Netherlands, Europe's biggest poultry producers, to be allowed to vaccinate millions of birds against avian influenza.

"They (experts) discussed it in detail, both scientific and technical," an official at the European Commission told Reuters.

"They haven't been able to conclude the discussion and that will continue tomorrow," he said.

In London, the famous ravens at the Tower of London were brought inside to protect them from bird flu. Legend has it that if the ravens leave the Tower, where the Crown Jewels are stored, the Kingdom will fall.

TRANSMISSION RISKS

The World Health Organization said that while no human cases of bird flu had been found in India, Egypt or Nigeria — countries where H5N1 has been found in birds — transmission risks remain as long as the virus is present.

Mutations in virus more deadly for birds ​

22.02.06 7.20am

Mutations in the H5N1 bird flu virus are making it more deadly in chickens and more resistant in the environment but without yet increasing the threat to humans, the World Health Organisation said.

The changes, which all viruses undergo, have affected patterns of transmission amongst domestic poultry and wild birds, with ducks, for example, able to pass the virus on without getting ill.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=2&ObjectID=10369499

Um, this is what virus' do. I am amazed that leading scientists would actually make such comments in public since it shows how clueless they are. I remember last fall, a lifetime ago it seems, that the "experts" absolutely, completely and utterly assured us that the bird flu would not follow the migratory bird paths yada, yada yada. If you look at the spread patterns that is EXACTLY what they did.
And yes, variants of the less lethal bird flu have been in the USA for months now. What we are seeing is the mutation of the virus into a less lethal form that spreads easier from human to human. Now that they are reporting it is in both Nigeria and India you have to assume it has been there quite a while and they just now bothered to test for it and actually find it. If it has been in Afghanistan for several months why wouldn't it be in Pakistan and India since then?

At any rate Flying Dutchman we are going critical mass and I fully expect the situation south of the equator to spirial out of control due to the collapse of the public health infrastructure, heat, humidity and man caused chaos. I doubt the experts have factored in countries where hospital sanitation is a gallon of Clorox bleach, if you can get it, and they use "disposeable needles" 400 times.

Later in this year, say our fall, we will deal with the bird flu inside both the USA and Canada more openly. I still think a 100,000 people are dead of it in china and they just haven't bothered to tell us.

Doomer Doug said:

I fully expect the situation south of the equator to spirial out of control due to the collapse of the public health infrastructure, heat, humidity and man caused chaos. I doubt the experts have factored in countries where hospital sanitation is a gallon of Clorox bleach, if you can get it, and they use "disposeable needles" 400 times.

Later in this year, say our fall, we will deal with the bird flu inside both the USA and Canada more openly. I still think a 100,000 people are dead of it in china and they just haven't bothered to tell us.

Click to expand...

Watch India... they have better media... and it appears to be revving up...

The bottom line is if they (whatever country) keep WHO from finding out and doing secondary confirmation tests... then it isn't happening...

Key bird flu developments​

Tuesday February 21, 2006

Some key bird flu developments around the world Tuesday:​

Tests confirm H5N1 in three dead birds in Hungary, the seventh European Union nation with the deadly bird flu strain.

Health workers expand a massive slaughter of chickens in western India aimed at containing an outbreak of the disease.

Malaysia begins culling birds and launches house-to-house inspections for sick people in an area where 40 chickens died last week.

Indonesia said it will take its anti-bird flu fight into the teeming streets of the capital, testing thousands of chickens for the virus and slaughtering all birds living within half a mile of any outbreak.

Croatia reports a new case of H5N1 in wild fowl the country's second outbreak of the deadly virus since October.

A veterinary official says H5N1 has been confirmed in a wild swan found dead in southern Austria last week.

Another wild bird in Greece has tested positive for H5N1, raising the number of confirmed cases in the country to seven.

Tests confirm another 22 cases of H5N1 in wild fowl on the northern German island of Ruegen.

China's Agriculture Ministry warns northern regions that lie along a major migration path for wild birds to be on high alert for the virus.

A panel of European Union veterinary experts debate the merit of letting governments vaccinate poultry to protect commercial stocks.

http://cbs2.com/worldwire/BirdFlu-Developments-ai/resources_news_html

Deleware

Feb 21, 2006 4:53 pm US/Eastern

US Surgeon General Discusses DE Bird Flu Threat​

(CBS 3) DOVER Delaware officials are preparing for the bird flu. Tuesday, health experts and community leaders heard the U.S. Surgeon General compare a potential bird flu epidemic to the cold war.

The threat of a bird flu outbreak is a major concern for Delaware officials because poultry is a billion dollar a year business in the state. Chickens outnumber Delaware residents 250 to one, so preparing for a bird flu outbreak is a top priority.

The U.S. Surgeon General, the keynote speaker at a day-long summit in Dover about readiness for a potential bird flu pandemic, believes officials alone cannot do the job. He said he wants American citizens to arm themselves with information about the threat.

“Kind of the civil defense mentality of the 50's and 60's, where everybody understood there was a threat, everybody understood about bomb shelters, there was an understanding in society. We need to get that understanding back,” said U.S. Surgeon General Vice Admiral Richard Carmona.

Developing a vaccine is crucial, but difficult because the virus continually mutates.

So you have to keep changing…the vaccine to keep up with that changing virus, so it's a moving game all the time,” said Carmona.

Because chickens are big business in Delaware, it pays to keep them healthy. A minor outbreak two years ago led to major quarantines.

Bite: Our surveillance today is far more extensive than it was in 2004,” said University of Delaware Professor Jack Gelb.

In Southeast Asia, where bird flu has jumped to humans, people often live with their birds. In the U.S. birds are grown in confinement.

“That's a pretty key factor actually, that in the modern production systems that we have in the United States, chickens sleep with chickens and not with people,” said Gelb.

National experts say that in a worst case situation, 400-thousand people in Delaware, half the state’s population, would contract the virus. There would be an estimated 54-hundred fatalities in those affected by the virus.

http://kyw.com/topstories/local_story_052165614.html