02/17 | Bird Flu: American Public Asleep At The Wheel
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PCViking
Lutefisk Survivor
Bird Flu: American Public Asleep At The Wheel
American public "asleep at the wheel" while doctors and corporate leaders move to protect their families.
Laurie Grace
There has been a significant shift in the concerns of professionals with regard to H5N1 Avian Influenza (AKA: Pandemic Bird Flu). The medical community is gearing up to protect themselves and their families. There is extensive discussion of what supplies will be needed to sustain their families for 12-18 months in the way of food, water, heat, and medications. Water is a big issue because many major cities only keep 5-7 days worth of chlorine on site to sanitize their water, so when the supply chain is interrupted by 30-40% industry wide worker absenteeism, they won't be able to get it. If we don't do something now about bird flu, issues like the loss of American lives in the war in Iraq and Hurricane Katrina will be nothing more than distant memories.
According to many experts, we already have human to human transmission (H2H) of the virus and the next leap will be what is known as "sustained" H2H, which is what will catapult us into a pandemic situation. In every country that has had an outbreak of bird flu in humans, there has been at least one false negative. The initial reported cases in Cambodia, Indonesia, China, Turkey and now likely Iraq, were all reported "clusters" with likely human to human transmission which included cases that were either untested (bodies buried before the authorities arrived in some cases) or false negative cases that were excluded from the WHO statistics, which statistics eliminated the record of the cluster and the human to human transmission. Pneumonia cases frequently produce false negatives because nasal swabs are collected too late in the patient's illness and the disease has already moved to the lungs. And early pneumonia patients have not yet developed antibodies to show up in their blood, so the testing period is too late for the nasal swabs, too early for the antibodies but perfect timing for a false negative while the disease spreads.
Furthermore, "testing" is complicated. The right specimen has to be taken (preferably throat or nasopharyngeal swabs), the specimen has to be correctly transported, there must be enough specimen to test, and the test result should be interpreted in light of the patient's symptoms and his or her history of contact with infected birds or humans. And all of that assumes you have the cooperation of the people whose birds and family members are sick and dying; so that you even know about it to test them.
Medical professionals are taking precautions and have Tamiflu stocked for their families. Many pharmacists report the only prescriptions they have filled for the last three months are for doctors and their family members. And the doctors know that you have to give Tami flu in the first 48 hours for it to be effective, and that it requires up to twice the recommended dose for regular flu when you are treating bird flu. Also, the medical personnel are stockpiling their personal medications (for blood pressure, heart disease, etc.) because they know they will not be able to get their regular drugs either because of the interruption of the supply lines across the world. Eighty percent (80%) of the ingredients for America's pharmaceuticals come from off shore and 40 critical drugs are already unavailable or in short supply, according to the testimony of Dr. Michael Osterholm, an international expert on bird flu who has recently testified before Congress on the public’s need to prepare now for a pandemic.
On some of the professional blogs, there are even discussions of how to build home made ventilators (and/or order portable ones and things like hand ventilators that are used in hospitals until a patient can be put on the vent) and how to intubate patients because they all realize that after the initial wave of the pandemic, the hospitals will be full and there will be "no room at the inn." Plus, we have 105,000 ventilators in America. We will have millions needing them. For every ventilator, we will have 20 people who need it. Who will decide who gets a vent under those conditions? The rule book goes out the window and we need to plan for that now. Also, hospitals will by definition be the most dangerous place in town, not to talk about the security issues when fear and panic set in. The doctors know that when this thing hits, there will be bodies stacked in the street in America, the most developed nation in the world. There will not be enough morticians to bury the dead. These topics are becoming commonplace on blogs as those in the know are getting prepared.
There is much debate around the world about how much the H5N1 virus has to mutate before it has the ability to spread like wildfire among humans, similar to the viral strain in 1918. One well recognized scientist in the field (Tuabenberger) thinks that perhaps 25 mutations are necessary all told. Many of these mutations occurred in bird flu outbreaks in Asia, and now in Turkey virologists have discovered three new mutations. One of the mutations in the Turkish teenagers who died shows a substitution of glutamic acid with lycine, at position 627 of the polymerase protein, which the virus uses to replicate its genetic material. This particular mutation signals adaptation to humans. Additionally, it's not just the virus that is important when talking about the lethality or infectiousness of a virus, but the host. H5N1 is unique in that it can infect and kill a wide range of hosts (birds, humans, pigs, tigers, domestic cats, to name a few). It will be critical for us to follow the mutations that occur now that the virus has moved into Iraq.
Moreover, Iraq will pose unique challenges. Once the virus mutates, it is projected to be in the United States within 30 days (wherever it starts). The US currently has over 150,000 troops in Iraq and the odds of containing it in Iraq are not good. The World Health Organization (WHO) has been on the ground in Turkey the last month trying to contain an outbreak of bird flu that killed 4 people and hospitalized numerous others. Containment obviously did not work as the virus has now spread south and east to northern Iraq which borders Turkey. In Turkey, world wide relief organizations battled blizzards that forced cancellation of flights and poor roads that slowed travel into the affected areas. Imagine what it will be like going into Iraq, a country gripped by armed insurgency where there are precious few government resources to cope with something like the deadly bird flu, with already poor support for the restoration of water, electricity and other infrastructure. In the past two years 240 foreigners have been kidnapped in Iraq (some for ransom) and at least 40 have been killed. We lose troops every week to terrorists in Iraq. What makes us think the terrorists will not attack the international forces that come in to try and do the surveillance and testing to try and contain a bird flu pandemic?
In addition, corporate heads are expressing concern and asking what can be done to prepare their companies for bird flu when 30-40% of their work force will be out sick or taking care of their loved ones? They wonder how they can protect their employees so they won't be scared to come to work, and what is their duty as an employer with regard to issues like sick leave, payroll, etc? The good news in this scenario is that there is a lot you can do as an individual and a lot you can do as a company/employer to get ready for bird flu, but a "wait and see" strategy is not an option because we are running out or time.
http://www.birdflubeacon.com/BirdFluAmericanPublicAsleepAtTheWheel.htm
PCViking
Lutefisk Survivor
radio...
Audio for this story will be available at approx. 7:30 p.m. ET
All Things Considered, February 16, 2006 ·
The Asian bird flu is turning up in Europe. Mute swans killed by the H5N1 virus have been found in Greece, Italy, Austria, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Germany. Dead swans found in Denmark are still being tested. Health officials say these discoveries show that waterfowl are moving the virus around. Ornithologists say this case is far from proven.
It's long been known that ducks, swans and geese can carry bird flu viruses, says Peter Marra, a migration expert at the National Zoo in Washington, D.C.
"About 30 percent of ducks might be carrying some form of low pathogenic avian influenza, which doesn't hurt them or other ducks or animals that they might interact with," says Marra.
It used to be assumed that the virulent H5N1 virus killed migrating waterfowl before they traveled anywhere, says Marra. But that assumption has taken some hits in recent months.
Last fall, the virus started spreading along migratory pathways that took it west to the Black Sea and then south into Africa. Just last week, a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences showed that some migratory waterfowl can live with the virus inside them.
"We know that about .15 percent of waterfowl sampled will actually have live virus and be symptomatic," says Marra. "That's really important because we know they can actually carry the virus."
Other studies have also shown that birds given the virus in captivity are infectious for up to seven days -- and are asymptomatic at the same time, says Marra.
These developments strengthened a theory that Marra would have waved off a year ago: Migrating waterfowl are delivering the dreaded Asian bird flu to poultry farms, by flying overhead and defecating on flocks or in nearby waters.
Marra says the public health community now treats this theory as a fact, to the point where uninfected poultry found miles from dead swans are being slaughtered in parts of Europe. Unconfirmed reports that waterfowl are being shot are now in circulation, too.
These reports have put ornithologists on the defensive, to say the least.
"I think that wild birds are victims of the bird flu, but I don't think these birds are really spreading the disease," says Michael Fry, a migration expert with the American Bird Conservancy.
Fry says there are several problems with the waterfowl-as-carriers theory. First, while it's clear that migrating birds pick this virus up at poultry farms, there's no evidence linking their droppings to subsequent die-offs.
Also, if H5N1 really is being spread around by waterfowl, why did the virus follow only one of the many migratory routes leading out of Asia?
"There are many places that waterfowl go that if they were with any frequency carrying the disease, this disease would be everywhere," says Fry.
Fry says health officials need to focus less on ducks, swans and geese, and more on other ways the virus may be spreading. He says they might start by making sure poor poultry farmers are compensated when they kill infected flocks, lest they sell off birds that don't appear sick.
"If you don't compensate them, you are going to have a whole underground movement of birds away from quarantined areas because these farmers will try to save their birds in the hope that they are not infected," says Fry.
Fry suspects that sales like these have been driving the spread of H5N1 virus to a much greater extent than migrating waterfowl.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5219935
What's Behind Bird Flu: The Chicken or the Duck?
by John NielsenAudio for this story will be available at approx. 7:30 p.m. ET
All Things Considered, February 16, 2006 ·
The Asian bird flu is turning up in Europe. Mute swans killed by the H5N1 virus have been found in Greece, Italy, Austria, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Germany. Dead swans found in Denmark are still being tested. Health officials say these discoveries show that waterfowl are moving the virus around. Ornithologists say this case is far from proven.
It's long been known that ducks, swans and geese can carry bird flu viruses, says Peter Marra, a migration expert at the National Zoo in Washington, D.C.
"About 30 percent of ducks might be carrying some form of low pathogenic avian influenza, which doesn't hurt them or other ducks or animals that they might interact with," says Marra.
It used to be assumed that the virulent H5N1 virus killed migrating waterfowl before they traveled anywhere, says Marra. But that assumption has taken some hits in recent months.
Last fall, the virus started spreading along migratory pathways that took it west to the Black Sea and then south into Africa. Just last week, a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences showed that some migratory waterfowl can live with the virus inside them.
"We know that about .15 percent of waterfowl sampled will actually have live virus and be symptomatic," says Marra. "That's really important because we know they can actually carry the virus."
Other studies have also shown that birds given the virus in captivity are infectious for up to seven days -- and are asymptomatic at the same time, says Marra.
These developments strengthened a theory that Marra would have waved off a year ago: Migrating waterfowl are delivering the dreaded Asian bird flu to poultry farms, by flying overhead and defecating on flocks or in nearby waters.
Marra says the public health community now treats this theory as a fact, to the point where uninfected poultry found miles from dead swans are being slaughtered in parts of Europe. Unconfirmed reports that waterfowl are being shot are now in circulation, too.
These reports have put ornithologists on the defensive, to say the least.
"I think that wild birds are victims of the bird flu, but I don't think these birds are really spreading the disease," says Michael Fry, a migration expert with the American Bird Conservancy.
Fry says there are several problems with the waterfowl-as-carriers theory. First, while it's clear that migrating birds pick this virus up at poultry farms, there's no evidence linking their droppings to subsequent die-offs.
Also, if H5N1 really is being spread around by waterfowl, why did the virus follow only one of the many migratory routes leading out of Asia?
"There are many places that waterfowl go that if they were with any frequency carrying the disease, this disease would be everywhere," says Fry.
Fry says health officials need to focus less on ducks, swans and geese, and more on other ways the virus may be spreading. He says they might start by making sure poor poultry farmers are compensated when they kill infected flocks, lest they sell off birds that don't appear sick.
"If you don't compensate them, you are going to have a whole underground movement of birds away from quarantined areas because these farmers will try to save their birds in the hope that they are not infected," says Fry.
Fry suspects that sales like these have been driving the spread of H5N1 virus to a much greater extent than migrating waterfowl.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5219935
Attachments
PCViking
Lutefisk Survivor
Egypt
CAIRO (AFX) - Officials in Egypt's southern governorate of Qena began
testing chickens for avian flu after the mysterious deaths of some 130 of them
in one village.
The death of the birds at a number of homes in Ezzab al-Masri prompted
residents to alert officials, fearing the outbreak of a disease.
Veterinary doctors later took samples from the dead poultry for testing.
Egypt says it has not detected any cases of bird flu in the country since
officials tightened controls at ports of entry and set up observation posts
along its borders and waters to collect samples on migratory birds.
The authorities have also called off the bird-hunting season in response to
the global bird flu scare and banned imports of live birds and poultry products.
Qena is the governorate in which the popular tourist areas of Luxor and
Thebes are located.
http://freeserve.advfn.com/news_Egy...-avian-flu-after-poultry-deaths_14229853.html
Egypt tests chickens for avian flu after poultry deaths
CAIRO (AFX) - Officials in Egypt's southern governorate of Qena began
testing chickens for avian flu after the mysterious deaths of some 130 of them
in one village.
The death of the birds at a number of homes in Ezzab al-Masri prompted
residents to alert officials, fearing the outbreak of a disease.
Veterinary doctors later took samples from the dead poultry for testing.
Egypt says it has not detected any cases of bird flu in the country since
officials tightened controls at ports of entry and set up observation posts
along its borders and waters to collect samples on migratory birds.
The authorities have also called off the bird-hunting season in response to
the global bird flu scare and banned imports of live birds and poultry products.
Qena is the governorate in which the popular tourist areas of Luxor and
Thebes are located.
http://freeserve.advfn.com/news_Egy...-avian-flu-after-poultry-deaths_14229853.html
G228S Acquisition Via Avian H5N1 - Swine H1N1 Recombination
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02160603/H5N1_H1N1_G228S.html
Recombinomics Commentary
February 16, 2006
The recent reports of H5N1 throughout Europe raise concerns of recombination between H5N1 migrating into the region and other sero-types indigenous to the region. In the fall, H5N1 migrated into the Middle East. The presence of those new H5N1 sequences offered the opportunity of recombining with H9N2 in domestic poultry. The presence of donor sequences in H9N2 in the Middle East led to a warning of more efficient transmission of H5N1 via the acquisition of S227N.
The Qinghai version of H5N1 was responsible for the large die-off of waterfowl at Qinghai Lake in May, 2005. The sequences isolated from dead birds, primarily bar-headed geese, contained sequences of a recombinant H5N1 with a genetic background similar to H5N1 isolates in Asia. However the Qingahi H5N1 contained unique polymorphisms found primarily in Europe, including PB2 sequences that matched European swine. The PB2 sequences also had E627K, a polymorphism that had not previously been reported in H5N1 from birds. This polymorphism is found in all human H1, H2, and H3 isolates, including the 1918 pandemic strain.
The Qinghai strain was subsequently identified in Novosibirsk, Mongolia, Kazakhstan and subsequently in regions to the west such as Tula, Volga Delta, Romania, Croatia, and western Turkey. However, none of these H5N1 isolates were linked to confirmed human cases. However, human cases were reported in eastern Turkey at the end of December. S227N was identified in H5N1 from the index case. The index case was part of a very large cluster, involving at least three families. Sixteen family members were hospitalized and seven were confirmed to be H5N1 positive. Four of the seven died.
The new reports of H5N1 in Europe, as well as the East Atlantic Flyway in Nigeria, raise concerns that large numbers of H5N1 infected birds will be migrating into and through central and western Europe. S227N has been shown to increase the affinity for human receptors, which was the basis of the October 22 warning.
Prior studies have shown that a polymorphism at the adjacent position, G228S, also increases the affinity for human receptors, which would lead to increased efficiency of H5N1 infections of humans. Analysis of the Loa Alamos or Genbank influenza sequences on deposit has identified donor sequences in swine in Europe. All are H1, and all but one is H1N1. The isolates with appropriate donor sequences for acquisition of G228S are listed below.
Since recombination between H5N1 can lead to the acquisition of G228S, there is cause for concern that the resulting recombinant would have increased affinity for human receptors, leading to more efficient transmission.
The isolates with the appropriate donor sequences are:
AJ517815 A/Switzerland/8808/2002 2002 H1N1
AJ517820 A/swine/Cotes d'Armor/736/2001 2001 H1N1
AJ517818 A/swine/Italy/10951/2001 2001 H1N1
AJ517817 A/swine/Italy/13260/2001 2001 H1N1
AJ412708 A/swine/Cotes d'Armor/1121/00 2000 H1N1
AJ344004 A/swine/Cotes d'Armor/918/00 2000 H1N1
AJ517819 A/swine/Italy/3088/00 2000 H1N1
AJ344018 A/swine/Italy/3364/00 2000 H1N1
AJ344021 A/swine/Cotes d'Armor/1455/99 1999 H1N1
AJ412711 A/swine/Cotes d'Armor/1482/99 1999 H1N1
AJ412712 A/swine/Cotes d'Armor/1488/99 1999 H1N1
AJ344002 A/swine/Cotes d'Armor/1515/99 1999 H1N1
AJ344013 A/swine/Italy/2064/99 1999 H1N2
AY590824 A/swine/Belgium/1/98 1998 H1N1
AJ344016 A/swine/Italy/1511/98 1998 H1N1
AJ344020 A/swine/Italy/1589/98 1998 H1N1
AJ344019 A/swine/Italy/1498-2/97 1997 H1N1
AJ344017 A/swine/Italy/1509-6/97 1997 H1N1
AJ344008 A/swine/Italy/1456-1/96 1996 H1N1
AF320064 A/Swine/Netherlands/609/96 1996 H1N1
AJ344009 A/swine/Italy/1390-5/95 1995 H1N1
AJ344011 A/swine/Italy/France/2111/95 1995 H1N1
AF320059 A/Swine/France/525/94 1994 H1N1
AF320063 A/Swine/Netherlands/1743/93 1993 H1N1
AF320066 A/Swine/Netherlands/477/93 1993 H1N1
U72669 A/Swine/Schleswig-Holstein/1/93 1993 H1N1
U72667 A/Swine/England/195852/92 1992 H1N1
Z46435 A/swine/Schleswig-Holstein/1/92 1992 H1N1
Z46434 A/swine/Germany/8533/91 1991 H1N1
AF091315 A/Swine/Italy-Virus/671/87 1987 H1N1
AF320062 A/Swine/Netherlands/1/87 1987 H1N1
AF320065 A/Swine/Netherlands/386/86 1986 H1N1
AF320056 A/Swine/France/3614/84 1984 H1N1
AJ344015 A/swine/Finistere/2899/82 1982 H1N1
NIGER: Dead birds raise fears of bird flu
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/IRIN/e07dd9905a038e9c7a3a0d39ab8114c7.htm
16 Feb 2006 22:01:31 GMT
NIAMEY, 16 February (IRIN) - The death of at least 400 chickens, turkeys and geese in Niger – which shares a 1,500-kilometre border with bird-flu-infected Nigeria – has government officials scurrying to prevent the spread of the deadly virus.
Niger authorities banned the importation of all poultry and poultry products, reinforced border patrols and launched a public awareness campaign, after the H5N1 virus was confirmed in Nigeria. The discovery of the dead birds near the town of Magaria in Niger's southern Zinder region days later prompted the government to reinforce its efforts and ask for international help with testing for the virus.
"The government has asked FAO [UN Food and Agriculture Organisation] to send its experts currently in Chad and Nigeria to Magaria before the end of the week," said Amadou Bare, secretary general of the animal resources ministry. Niger wants the experts to send bird samples to the UK for testing.
On Wednesday Niger's national committee for the fight against bird flu announced it has drawn up a 2.2-billion CFA franc (US $3.9 million) emergency programme it will submit to the government. Like many African countries, in order to finance its fight against the virus Niger will have to turn to the international community.
A UN World Health Organisation (WHO) official said the agency is ready to help. "We will join Niger in working to mobilise resources to put this plan into action," Gagara Magagi, WHO representative in Niger, said during a discussion broadcast on national television and radio on Wednesday. "There are many partners who are ready to finance the fight against this disease."
In addition to the bird remains found in the southern Zinder region, on Tuesday some dead swallows were found in the town of Garanke Day in Dosso, just 150 kilometres from the capital, Niamey, according to sources in Dosso.
The H5N1 virus was confirmed 8 February in northern Nigeria, where at least three of 36 states have now seen cases of infection – two of which share borders with Niger.
Since Niger authorities placed joint military and technical squads along the border with Nigeria last week, the remains of several imported chickens have been confiscated.
A local radio station in Konni – a town about 400 kilometres east of Niamey and near the Nigerian border – announced on Wednesday that the patrol teams had seized chickens originating from Nigeria and incinerated them.
The Niger government has given strict instructions to regional authorities in Maradi, Tahou and Zinder regions to apprehend anyone trying to bring poultry or poultry products in from Nigeria.
New Freedom
Veteran Member
Would you volunteer you child for this test???? 
http://www.wane.com/Global/story.asp?S=4515421&nav=menu32_8
U.S. to Test Bird Flu Vaccine in Children
U.S. researchers are planning to test a vaccine against the dangerous H5N1 bird flu virus in children. It's believed to be the first clinical trial of its kind.
The vaccine, made from an inert form of the H5N1 virus found in Vietnam, will be tested on 120 children, ages 2 to 9. Researchers say there is no risk to the children. The vaccine has already been tested by the National Institutes of Health on adults at clinical sites in the United States. Possible side effects may include a sore arm and easily treated low-grade fever, BBC News reported.
The study is being funded by the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
A vaccine designed specifically for children is important because they're more susceptible to influenza and have a different pattern of immune response than adults, the researchers said. This vaccine could prove crucial in protecting children in the event of a possible bird flu pandemic, the news service said.
The researchers also noted that children are a key factor in spreading diseases, BBC News reported.
http://www.wane.com/Global/story.asp?S=4515421&nav=menu32_8
U.S. to Test Bird Flu Vaccine in Children
U.S. researchers are planning to test a vaccine against the dangerous H5N1 bird flu virus in children. It's believed to be the first clinical trial of its kind.
The vaccine, made from an inert form of the H5N1 virus found in Vietnam, will be tested on 120 children, ages 2 to 9. Researchers say there is no risk to the children. The vaccine has already been tested by the National Institutes of Health on adults at clinical sites in the United States. Possible side effects may include a sore arm and easily treated low-grade fever, BBC News reported.
The study is being funded by the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
A vaccine designed specifically for children is important because they're more susceptible to influenza and have a different pattern of immune response than adults, the researchers said. This vaccine could prove crucial in protecting children in the event of a possible bird flu pandemic, the news service said.
The researchers also noted that children are a key factor in spreading diseases, BBC News reported.
South Florida Birds Tested For Avian Flu
http://www.nbc6.net/news/7127274/detail.html
Expert Says No Birds In Florida Tested Positive
POSTED: 5:16 pm EST February 16, 2006
UPDATED: 5:41 pm EST February 16, 2006
MIAMI -- A second death in Iraq has been linked to avian flu. A U.S. official said the victim was the uncle of an Iraqi girl who died last month after contracting the deadly H5N1 strain. He died 10 days later.
So far, bird flu has killed at least 91 people. Germany, along with several other European countries, is taking steps to try to prevent the spread of the deadly strain after two dead swans tested positive. Swans are among the first birds to die from the disease, giving an indication of where it is present.
Hundreds of chickens, roosters, turkeys and ducks live at Rancho Las Villas, right off of busy Okeechobee Road.
In Miami-Dade County alone, the Florida Department of Agriculture is monitoring 40 farms, including Rancho Las Villas, for bird flu.
Luis Fabian, an agriculture and consumer specialist with the Bureau of Animal Disease Control, explained how the birds' throats are swabbed and the samples are put into tubes, which are sent to a state lab in Kissimmee. The tested birds are separated until the results come in, which takes 48 hours.
"This program is not new for us. We've been monitoring for avian influenza throughout the whole state for the last 20 years," Fabian said.
The deadly H5N1 strain is new, however, and has killed birds across Asia and Europe. Contact with sick birds has caused more than 90 human deaths. The discovery of infected birds in Germany has prompted the European commission to take more action to halt the spread of the disease.
The concern has spread to Florida. The Department of Agriculture has tripled the number of birds being tested, from 4,000 to 15,000. The results have been good so far.
"Nothing. We have found nothing in the state," Fabian said.
No avian influenza has been found in Florida or anywhere else in the U.S. However, the state is prepared to take action if any case should surface.
"Of course, that place would be automatically quarantined and every single bird on the farm destroyed," Fabian said.
People with backyard flocks need to be aware of the symptoms to look for in birds, which include sudden death, swelling of the head, nasal discharge, purple legs and comb, and diarrhea.
The state is offering bird testing for free while hoping H5N1 is a problem it never has to battle here.
momof23goats
Deceased
well, it is just a matter of time before we see it here.
I have asked DR's, and nurses, and others in the field, and no one can come up with a good answer to me.
they all answered me saying this, will I am sure the state has a plan, we just haven't been breifed on it yet, so in other words if you live in Michigan, its evry man for him self.
so get prepped, and ready, cause it is coming . Just a matter of time.
I have asked DR's, and nurses, and others in the field, and no one can come up with a good answer to me.
they all answered me saying this, will I am sure the state has a plan, we just haven't been breifed on it yet, so in other words if you live in Michigan, its evry man for him self.
so get prepped, and ready, cause it is coming . Just a matter of time.
PCViking
Lutefisk Survivor
Indonesia
Friday 17 February 2006
JAKARTA (AFX) - Another Indonesian was hospitalized today with suspected
bird flu, as the number of suspected cases in the country steadily grows.
The 40-year-old housewife from South Jakarta was admitted to the Sulianti
Saroso hospital for infectious diseases and was in stable condition, hospital
spokesman Ilham Patu said.
She told doctors she had been in contact with sick chickens belonging to her
neighbour before coming down with symptoms of pneumonia including a high fever, Patu told Agence France-Presse.
The hospital is now treating four patients suspected of infection with the
H5N1 virus, Patu added.
Two others suffering symptoms of the virus died at the facility on Thursday
but local tests have yet to show whether they were infected.
If such tests, which are usually reliable, are positive, they are then sent
to a World Health Organisation-affiliated laboratory in Hong Kong for
confirmation.
Indonesia has confirmed seven deaths this year, the highest reported figure
globally. In total, 18 bird flu deaths have occurred in the country from the
virus, which is spread through human contact with bird saliva, nasal secretions
or faeces.
http://freeserve.advfn.com/news_Indonesian-woman-hospitalised-with-suspected-bird-flu_14236324.html
Indonesian woman hospitalised with suspected bird flu
Friday 17 February 2006
JAKARTA (AFX) - Another Indonesian was hospitalized today with suspected
bird flu, as the number of suspected cases in the country steadily grows.
The 40-year-old housewife from South Jakarta was admitted to the Sulianti
Saroso hospital for infectious diseases and was in stable condition, hospital
spokesman Ilham Patu said.
She told doctors she had been in contact with sick chickens belonging to her
neighbour before coming down with symptoms of pneumonia including a high fever, Patu told Agence France-Presse.
The hospital is now treating four patients suspected of infection with the
H5N1 virus, Patu added.
Two others suffering symptoms of the virus died at the facility on Thursday
but local tests have yet to show whether they were infected.
If such tests, which are usually reliable, are positive, they are then sent
to a World Health Organisation-affiliated laboratory in Hong Kong for
confirmation.
Indonesia has confirmed seven deaths this year, the highest reported figure
globally. In total, 18 bird flu deaths have occurred in the country from the
virus, which is spread through human contact with bird saliva, nasal secretions
or faeces.
http://freeserve.advfn.com/news_Indonesian-woman-hospitalised-with-suspected-bird-flu_14236324.html
PCViking
Lutefisk Survivor
France
Friday 17 February 2006
LYON (AFX) - French veterinary authorities were conducting tests on a dead
swan and two dead ducks to detect the possible presence of bird flu, regional
authorities said.
The wild swan was found on Tuesday on a highway just south of the
central-eastern city of Lyon, while the ducks were found yesterday in a wildlife
reservation in the Somme region north of Paris.
The first results are expected later today.
If they reveal the presence of bird flu, further tests are to be carried out
to establish whether it is the highly pathogenic variety of the H5N1 strain of
the virus.
The French government has ordered all poultry and tame birds to be kept
indoors, to prevent contamination from wild birds carrying the deadly virus.
France is Europe's biggest poultry producer, as well as western Europe's
main crossroads for migratory birds.
In Europe, the presence of H5N1 virus has so far been verified in Austria,
Bulgaria, Croatia, Germany, Greece, Italy, Romania, Slovenia, Ukraine and the
European part of Russia. Almost all the cases involve migratory wild swans.
http://freeserve.advfn.com/news_France-testing-dead-swan--ducks-for-bird-flu_14240099.html
France testing dead swan, ducks for bird flu
Friday 17 February 2006
LYON (AFX) - French veterinary authorities were conducting tests on a dead
swan and two dead ducks to detect the possible presence of bird flu, regional
authorities said.
The wild swan was found on Tuesday on a highway just south of the
central-eastern city of Lyon, while the ducks were found yesterday in a wildlife
reservation in the Somme region north of Paris.
The first results are expected later today.
If they reveal the presence of bird flu, further tests are to be carried out
to establish whether it is the highly pathogenic variety of the H5N1 strain of
the virus.
The French government has ordered all poultry and tame birds to be kept
indoors, to prevent contamination from wild birds carrying the deadly virus.
France is Europe's biggest poultry producer, as well as western Europe's
main crossroads for migratory birds.
In Europe, the presence of H5N1 virus has so far been verified in Austria,
Bulgaria, Croatia, Germany, Greece, Italy, Romania, Slovenia, Ukraine and the
European part of Russia. Almost all the cases involve migratory wild swans.
http://freeserve.advfn.com/news_France-testing-dead-swan--ducks-for-bird-flu_14240099.html
Dinghy said:
Actually, I work with young children (lot's of 'em...
) and our heath inspector has been dropping hints about being prepared for the possibility of bigger health issues in the future. When we were building the fourth preschool/ child care center, suddenly, we were required to have five sinks in the kitchen (yeah, I said 5 sinks 
). One is for washing dishes, one is for rinsing dishes, one is for sanitizing dishes, and one is ONLY for washing hands. (The fifth sink is a large basin to the side to be used as a mop sink.)When I asked--with all of our antibacterial products--why a separate sink for each phase was necessary, he said that there are germs that are not eliminated with the regular washing. Then he also said that, because we live in a semi-rural area where there are many farms, we were especially at risk for the introduction of such germs. I hinted at BF, and he raised a brow, but did not answer.
Like I said before, the CDC has a direct link to us through our inspector. Looks like they are trying to prepare without scaring anyone... at least in our neck of the woods.
Author Barry says pandemic planners should expect waves
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/biz-plan/news/feb1606barry.html
Robert Roos News Editor
Feb 16, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – If the next influenza pandemic imitates past ones and plays out in waves, the first wave might serve as a warning that gives the world a little time to prepare for the worst, a leading expert on the pandemic of 1918 told business leaders at a Minneapolis meeting this week.
John M. Barry, author of the 2004 book The Great Influenza, an account of the 1918 pandemic, said the first phase of that pandemic, in early 1918, was mild. The disease didn't strike with full ferocity until the second wave about 6 months later, in September and October.
"The first wave was so mild that you could read in a scientific journal article that this disease looked like influenza and acted like influenza but it can't be influenza because it was, so far, absent the usual complications of influenza," Barry, told a luncheon audience on the first day of the "Business Planning for Pandemic Influenza" meeting at the Minneapolis Convention Center.
"At first it wasn't great at infecting people in large numbers," he said. "Over a period of about 6 months, it was becoming more and more and more efficient, and then suddenly seemed to erupt simultaneously all over the world on three continents."
On the basis of pandemic planning meetings he has attended, Barry said planners don't seem to be figuring on "the wave phenomenon." "I think it's important to take that into consideration, because you may well have 6 to 8 months after the first identified human [case], before the worst phase hits," he said. "There may be an opportunity there."
The 1918 pandemic had three waves, as Barry recounts in his book. The last wave, in the winter of 1918-19, was milder than the second, though still much worse than the first.
Barry said that in the pandemic of 1889, which also was severe, the third wave was the most lethal. If that happened in the next pandemic, "it would be good news for us, because by that time we would be fully protected by vaccine," he said. Once a pandemic flu virus emerges, it is expected to take at least 6 months to develop and begin producing a vaccine precisely matched to the virus.
US Army data make clear how fast the 1918 virus evolved in the course of the pandemic, according to Barry. At the first five major army camps affected, 20% of the troops who caught the flu suffered pneumonia, and 37% of the pneumonia patients died. At the last five camps hit by the virus, an average of just 3 weeks after the first five, only 7% of flu patients had pneumonia, and 17% of them died.
"You have to understand that this is going to be a constantly changing enemy," Barry said.
If Barry sounded faintly reassuring on the subject of pandemic phases, he was the opposite on other points.
He cited the prediction of other experts at the 2-day meeting that even if the next pandemic is severe, about 98% of people will survive. Though he didn't take issue with that overall, he said the toll could be much worse in certain places or among certain groups. In 1918, about a third of the populations of Alaska and Labrador perished, and in Western Samoa the toll was 22%. In Fiji, 16% of the people died in just 2 weeks. And among young adults in general—the hardest hit group—an estimated 4% to 8% succumbed.
In addition, today's population is "clinically more vulnerable" to flu than the population in 1918, Barry said. The reason is the many people with weakened immune systems, including the elderly, HIV/AIDS patients, and cancer patients.
To drive home the importance of preparedness, Barry talked about the widespread failure of public officials in 1918 to level with the public about the influenza threat. In an atmosphere of rigid wartime censorship, enforced by laws that "make the Patriot Act look like a resolution of the ACLU," any utterance that could have been construed as harmful to public morale was punishable, he explained.
Hence, public officials mostly downplayed or lied about the pandemic, saying things like, "This is ordinary influenza by another name," Barry said. Rather than allaying fear and panic, this approach increased them.
But there were a few places "that sort of did prepare and did tell the truth from the beginning," he said. "In San Francisco, the city from day 1 told the truth about the disease." As a result, "you didn't get the panic and social breakdown that you got elsewhere."
The lesson is that when people are told the truth about a danger, they can prepare and deal with it, he said. "So preparation does make a difference."
Barry, of Washington, DC, is a distinguished visiting scholar at Tulane University in New Orleans.
How will the infrastructure fare in a flu pandemic?
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/biz-plan/news/021506infrastructure.html
Mary Beth Nierengarten Contributing Writer
Feb 15, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – Putting an additional stressor, such as a flu pandemic, on an infrastructure that is already stressed and running at a stretched capacity merits great concern, said experts convening yesterday at a national summit on business planning for pandemic influenza in Minneapolis.
Among the most important areas of contingency planning for such an event is how to manage workers, both those who are ill and those who remain well. In addition, strong leadership is needed at all levels of government to help businesses prepare for such a pandemic, concluded participants in the panel, titled "Cross-Cutting Critical Infrastructure Availability and Business Continuity."
Speaking on the vulnerability of the power grid to a pandemic flu outbreak, Massoud Amin, DSc, Director of the Center for the Development of Technological Leadership and Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering at the University of Minnesota, said that "the system is already close to the edge" in terms of available fuel sources as well as the entire infrastructure, including transmission, high voltage, and distribution.
"Can we handle unexpected demands on a system that is already stressed if a major global disruption occurs?" he asked.
According to Dr. Amin, one of the key concerns is the availability of enough people to operate systems if a pandemic occurs. "Organizations have gotten to a point where they have been downsized, right-sized, and they are nearly capsized," he said. Given the already reduced workforce in businesses, what will happen in a pandemic that is projected to reduce the workforce by 35%? he questioned.
Echoing this concern, Anne Marie Kappel, Vice President, World Shipping Council, Washington, DC, reiterated the impact of a pandemic on a system (in this case, transportation) that is already stressed and that relies heavily on people. "If we talk about a pandemic that will impact 25% to 30% of the workforce and you have an industry that is structured with millions of dollars of assets, none of which can operate without people, this will have an impact on the system." Any business that relies on goods has to factor this into their preparedness plans, she emphasized.
Along with factoring in the reduced workforce because of illness, an equally important focus needs to be on how to manage workers who remain healthy. "Part of dealing successfully with the pandemic will be dealing with the healthy," Kappel said, stressing the need for healthy transportation so workers can get to work. The message that it is safe for people to go to work in the midst of a pandemic must come from the government, according to Kappel, similar to what happened during the SARS episode when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stepped in to reassure cargo workers that they couldn't contract SARS from handling cargo. She emphasized the need for strong leadership in mitigating this "fear factor" that would further reduce the workforce and slow operations.
Former governor of Minnesota Arne Carlson agrees that leadership is key to successful pandemic planning. "The only institution that has the capacity to bring people together is government," he said, adding that government needs to provide a clear, broad understanding about what the pandemic is, what its potentialities are, and what kind of role individuals need to play. As current chairman of RiverSource Funds, a large Minneapolis employer, Carlson said he has not yet received even one phone call regarding the pandemic. "That's wrong," he said, adding that businesses need to contact their state and federal government officials to get basic information about contingency plans in the event of a pandemic.
For Marshall C. Sanders, CPP, Vice President, Global Security, Broomfield, Colorado, a key point for businesses in pandemic planning is looking at the capacity requirements to support the 25% to 50% of the workforce that might be called upon to work remotely during a pandemic. Issues include identifying who the workforce is (eg, the percentage who need to work onsite, who can telecommute, and who need to be online), ensuring access to licenses in advance, making sure support services are available, and addressing privacy issues.
Steven Ross, MD, Director, Enterprise Risk Services, Deloitte & Touche LLP, New York, commented that developing a plan for how to deal with employees working remotely underscores the need to focus on good management versus planning. "The point is [that] this is not a planning issue, it's a management issue," he said, adding that the workforce can be made much more productive if people are given the ability to work from wherever they are. Also, if connectivity slows down during a pandemic, he noted, businesses can try to stagger workers so that, for example, some workers work mornings and some work afternoons.
Although telecommunications depend extensively on the power grid and therefore will be affected if the power goes out, Sanders emphasized that the industry can sustain capacity to serve customers for a limited period of time by, for example, relying on generator-based power. He also emphasized that the communications infrastructure is provided with priority assistance under the National Security Emergency Agency planning structure that was created under the Kennedy Administration in the 1960s.
To best prepare for a pandemic, the need for all sectors of infrastructure to work together was emphasized by Dr. Amin who reiterated the need for integrated assessments and collaboration among sectors to prepare and deal with a pandemic.
The Business Planning for Pandemic Influenza national summit, held Feb 14 and 15, was hosted by the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, publisher of this Web site; the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce; and the US Chamber of Commerce.
Pandemic could cripple routine health services
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/biz-plan/news/feb1506healthcare.html
Robert Roos News Editor
Feb 15, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – A major influenza pandemic would make it very difficult for the US healthcare system to maintain routine services, a reality that few Americans are aware of, a public health official said at a preparedness conference in Minneapolis today.
"I don't think Americans are the least bit prepared" for the potential effects on the health system, said Dorothy Teeter, interim director of public health for Seattle and King County, Wash. She was part of a panel at a national meeting on business preparedness for pandemic flu.
Teeter said her department has assembled a coalition of healthcare organizations "to work on what the healthcare system would look like" during a pandemic, when hospitals and clinics could be overwhelmed by thousands of seriously ill patients.
"We have a whole team working on triage, self-care, and telephonic consultations," among other approaches for maintaining services to special populations in that situation, Teeter said.
"People will have to understand there will be a very different [healthcare] system in place," she said. "If you don't tell them the truth, I think we'll have a huge social unrest problem."
King County has also set up groups to work with the business community and with public officials on pandemic preparedness, Teeter reported. The business group has discussed issues such as school closings. Business leaders said they would like a couple of days' warning if the county decides to close schools, because many parents then would need to stay home to care for their children, she said.
"You balance the business continuity and the general health of the community," Teeter said.
She also said the county is stockpiling oseltamivir (Tamiflu) to help maintain the healthcare workforce. "We're not thinking about prophylactic use, because there's not enough Tamiflu," she said. "But we are going to be prepositioning Tamiflu. . . . We've been able to buy Tamiflu over and above normal use."
The pandemic threat has Seattle health officials thinking about some measures that sound extreme, according to Teeter.
A Seattle medical examiner went to New Orleans to study the response to Hurricane Katrina, she said. When he returned, he suggested that health officials develop instructions for residents on how to bury bodies in their backyards, in case the number of flu victims outstrips the area's ability to handle the bodies. That situation occurred in cities like Philadelphia in the 1918 pandemic.
Teeter cited an estimate that a pandemic could kill 11,000 people in Seattle in 6 weeks, well above the usual toll in a year. In talking about the threat, she said, "You just have to be kind of plain-spoken and out there for the public."
The business preparedness conference was sponsored by the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), publisher of the CIDRAP Web site, along with the US and Minnesota Chambers of Commerce.
Actually, I work with young children (lot's of 'em... )
Seabird, I work with young children as well.
My biggest concern right now is, at what point do we know when it is appropriate to close the doors? We need some preventative quidelines besides just washing hands. If we wash our hands more, we'll just have bloody sticks left, LOL.
I would think the schools will need the same guidelines for closures. Kids show up ill everyday and perhaps we don't know it for hours! Parents bring their kids to childcare and go home to rest, because they're too sick to handle their kids. There's serious exposure issues here.
At a social event last night, a retired RN gave us a heads up about a meeting early in March, on how to prepare for Pandemic Flu. I'm going! After my DH told me about a presentation from a Dr. from the health dept., about Avian Flu, at a recent Rotary meeting; I started to listen. The same Dr. reported in our local newspaper, warning of widespread illness and closures of public entities. The article included an extensive list of items to have on hand at home, in case we have to stay home for long periods of time. (that list of course, was already filled in my house, as many here) So evidently this nasty is not being ignored here, although I do need to speak with our health dept. inspector re: the childcare.
If you hear of paticular guidelines re: closures, please post them. I'll do the same.
Seabird, I work with young children as well.
My biggest concern right now is, at what point do we know when it is appropriate to close the doors? We need some preventative quidelines besides just washing hands. If we wash our hands more, we'll just have bloody sticks left, LOL. I would think the schools will need the same guidelines for closures. Kids show up ill everyday and perhaps we don't know it for hours! Parents bring their kids to childcare and go home to rest, because they're too sick to handle their kids. There's serious exposure issues here.
At a social event last night, a retired RN gave us a heads up about a meeting early in March, on how to prepare for Pandemic Flu. I'm going! After my DH told me about a presentation from a Dr. from the health dept., about Avian Flu, at a recent Rotary meeting; I started to listen. The same Dr. reported in our local newspaper, warning of widespread illness and closures of public entities. The article included an extensive list of items to have on hand at home, in case we have to stay home for long periods of time. (that list of course, was already filled in my house, as many here) So evidently this nasty is not being ignored here, although I do need to speak with our health dept. inspector re: the childcare.
If you hear of paticular guidelines re: closures, please post them. I'll do the same.
"A Seattle medical examiner went to New Orleans to study the response to Hurricane Katrina, she said. When he returned, he suggested that health officials develop instructions for residents on how to bury bodies in their backyards, in case the number of flu victims outstrips the area's ability to handle the bodies. That situation occurred in cities like Philadelphia in the 1918 pandemic."
PCViking
Lutefisk Survivor
Egypt
Feb 17, 2006 — (Recasts after confirmation
CAIRO (Reuters) - Cases of the killer H5N1 bird flu virus have been found in dead birds in three areas of Egypt, a senior official from the World Health Organization (WHO) told Reuters on Friday.
"There is avian flu now in Egypt," Hassan el Bushra, regional adviser for emerging diseases in the eastern Mediterranean regional office of WHO said.
He did not name the three areas but said birds had died from the deadly H5N1 virus. He said there were no human cases.
Earlier, an Egyptian government official said ministers were meeting to discuss the possibility that a case of some bird deaths in the Egyptian capital area may have been due to the deadly virus.
The meeting included Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif and the agriculture, interior, defense and information ministers.
Egypt has banned the import of live birds and has tightened quarantine controls at airports to keep out bird flu. It has also canceled the annual bird hunting season to minimize contacts between people and migrant birds.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=1631314
Egypt finds H5N1 bird flu in dead birds
Feb 17, 2006 — (Recasts after confirmation
CAIRO (Reuters) - Cases of the killer H5N1 bird flu virus have been found in dead birds in three areas of Egypt, a senior official from the World Health Organization (WHO) told Reuters on Friday.
"There is avian flu now in Egypt," Hassan el Bushra, regional adviser for emerging diseases in the eastern Mediterranean regional office of WHO said.
He did not name the three areas but said birds had died from the deadly H5N1 virus. He said there were no human cases.
Earlier, an Egyptian government official said ministers were meeting to discuss the possibility that a case of some bird deaths in the Egyptian capital area may have been due to the deadly virus.
The meeting included Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif and the agriculture, interior, defense and information ministers.
Egypt has banned the import of live birds and has tightened quarantine controls at airports to keep out bird flu. It has also canceled the annual bird hunting season to minimize contacts between people and migrant birds.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=1631314
FloridaGirl
Veteran Member
I work in a branch of emergency services who will be expected to respond to all the sick people when the bird flu hits. I printed out the above article on the American Public being asleep in regards to the bird flu. I distributed it to my supervisors and they looked at me as if I was some sort of a kook.
It would seem to me that they would be doing our employees a favor or a heads up to help them get prepared for their families before this thing hits. There seems to be no planning whatsoever.
It would seem to me that they would be doing our employees a favor or a heads up to help them get prepared for their families before this thing hits. There seems to be no planning whatsoever.
Recombinomics Inc. Predicts a New Genetic Change in the H5N1 (Avian Flu) Virus
http://www.recombinomics.com/PR/021706.html
PITTSBURGH, Feb. 17 /PRNewswire/ -- Recombinomics is issuing a new prediction and warning of a likely alteration in the avian influenza H5N1 hemagglutinin gene. Like the warning/prediction issued on October 22nd, 2005, this new alteration will increase the virus' affinity for human receptors and lead to more efficient transmission of H5N1 to humans. The company has notified the WHO of its prediction and warning regarding the near term likelihood of this genetic alteration occurring.
In October, Recombinomic's prediction/warning was based upon H5N1 entering the Middle East via migratory birds, where another avian influenza, H9N2 was endemic. Recombinomics, utilizing its patent pending approach, predicted that the H gene in H5N1 would exchange genetic information with the H gene in H9N2 and would acquire the genetic change S227N (also called S223N). This alteration had been previously shown to increase the affinity of H5N1 for human receptors. In late December 2005, the first human infections by the Qinghai strain of H5N1 were reported in Turkey. S227N was detected in the index case for that outbreak with six additional cases confirmed four of whom
died.
Today, Recombinomics is predicting a similar change in the adjacent
position of the H5N1 virus' receptor binding domain. The donor sequences are again on the H, but in H1N1 European swine sequences. The new genetic change, G228S, has also been previously shown to increase the affinity for human receptors. Like H9N2 in the Middle East, H1N1 is endemic in swine populations in Europe. Infection by H5N1 in H1N1 infected swine will allow the viruses to exchange genetic information via recombination and allow H5N1 to acquire S228N. The region of identity between H5N1 and H1N1 is downstream from the
S227N position, so H5N1, with and without the S227N change, can acquire this new sequence. This sequence acquisition by the H5N1 virus will also lead to more efficient transmission to humans.
"H5N1 is migrating into areas where it is encountering unique influenza
sero-types it has not encountered while largely confined to Asia over the past few years. This expanded geographical reach allows H5N1 to exchange genetic material with novel donor sequences, which under the appropriate selection pressures, enables the genetic changes to become fixed in the genome of the virus. H5N1 is in the process of acquiring genetic information that allows for more efficient infections of humans", said Recombinomics President, Dr. Henry Niman.
H5N1, like most rapidly evolving viruses, uses homologous recombination to create novel genes that enhance the ability of the virus to evolve and remain competitively viable. Recombinomics' proprietary approach predicts these changes and identifies novel gene targets for new vaccines, which in turn allows manufacturers to develop vaccine in advance of the emergence of new genetically altered, and potentially pandemic viral strains.
About Recombinomics, Inc. -- The Company was founded by Dr. Henry Niman, a former Scripps Institute Assistant Member, based on his pioneering work in the area of viral evolution. Dr. Niman's research identified recombination as the underlying mechanism driving rapid genetic change, allowing him to file a series of patents based on a deep understanding of this paradigm shifting process. Recombinomics is in the process of commercializing its patent-pending approach to significantly improve the standard vaccine development process.
Recombinomics, through its analysis and commentary section of its website (http://www.recombinomics.com ), has been consistently ahead of both the scientific community and government agencies in anticipating the genetic evolution and geographic expansion of H5N1.
Contact Information:
Dr. Henry Niman
President
Recombinomics, Inc.
648 Field Club Road,
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15238
Tel. 866.973.2662
henry_niman@recombinomics.com
Web Site: http://www.recombinomics.com
susie_q said:Actually, I work with young children (lot's of 'em... )
Seabird, I work with young children as well.
I would think the schools will need the same guidelines for closures. Kids show up ill everyday and perhaps we don't know it for hours! Parents bring their kids to childcare and go home to rest, because they're too sick to handle their kids. There's serious exposure issues here.
At a social event last night, a retired RN gave us a heads up about a meeting early in March, on how to prepare for Pandemic Flu. I'm going! After my DH told me about a presentation from a Dr. from the health dept., about Avian Flu, at a recent Rotary meeting; I started to listen. The same Dr. reported in our local newspaper, warning of widespread illness and closures of public entities. The article included an extensive list of items to have on hand at home, in case we have to stay home for long periods of time. (that list of course, was already filled in my house, as many here) So evidently this nasty is not being ignored here, although I do need to speak with our health dept. inspector re: the childcare.
If you hear of paticular guidelines re: closures, please post them. I'll do the same.
Susie_q, I will post anything we hear (probably in the BS.) I don't know what part of the country you are in, but there is a higher level of concern in states with major ports where poultry and other livestock are brought in. Florida is on a high watch list, so our health department is being vigilant.
And do I know about washing hands....
And actually, I am trying to disuage my staff from using the hand sanitizers too often. Washing hands with a strong, but soft soap is better for the skin. The alcohol in the sanitizers dry out the skin and can add to the chapped, cracked hands.
PCViking
Lutefisk Survivor
France
H5 strain found in duck in France
17 February 2006 16:26
Tests on a dead duck found in eastern France have shown it had the H5 strain of bird flu and probably had the H5N1 strain, the Agriculture Ministry confirmed this afternoon.
Further tests are being conducted on the duck, which was found dead on Monday.
The H5N1 strain has killed at least 91 people around the world.
A statement said: 'The test showed the H5 virus was present and had strong similarities with the H5N1 Asian influenza. Further tests are under way.'
http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/0217/birdflu.html
H5 strain found in duck in France
17 February 2006 16:26
Tests on a dead duck found in eastern France have shown it had the H5 strain of bird flu and probably had the H5N1 strain, the Agriculture Ministry confirmed this afternoon.
Further tests are being conducted on the duck, which was found dead on Monday.
The H5N1 strain has killed at least 91 people around the world.
A statement said: 'The test showed the H5 virus was present and had strong similarities with the H5N1 Asian influenza. Further tests are under way.'
http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/0217/birdflu.html
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
=
<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Bird flu 'could take 142m lives'
Worst case economic cost is $4.4 trillion</font>
Thursday, February 16, 2006; Posted: 10:28 a.m. EST (15:28 GMT)
<A href="http://www.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/conditions/02/15/birdflu.cost/index.html">www.cnn.com</a></center>
SYDNEY, Australia (CNN) -- As many as 142 million people around the world could die if bird flu turns into a "worst case" influenza pandemic, according to a sobering new study of its possible consequences.
And global economic losses could run to $4.4 trillion -- the equivalent of wiping out the Japanese economy's annual output.</b>
The study, prepared for the Sydney, Australia-based Lowy Institute think tank, says there are "enormous uncertainties" about whether a flu pandemic might happen, and where and when it might happen first.
But it says even a mild pandemic could kill 1.4 million people and cost $330 billion.
In its "ultra" or worst-case scenario, Hong Kong's economy is halved, the large-scale collapse of Asian economic activity causes global trade flows to dry up, and money flows out to safe havens in North America and Europe. Deaths could top 28 million in China and 24 million in India.
The report's release in Sydney Thursday comes as two more countries in Europe -- Germany and Austria -- report that the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus has been detected in wild fowl (Full story).
The Lowy Institute's report, titled Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza, looks at four possible scenarios:
Mild, in which the pandemic is similar to the 1968-69 Hong Kong flu;
Moderate, similar to the 1957 Asian flu;
Severe, similar to the 1918-19 Spanish flu (which infected an estimated 1 billion people and claimed as many as 50 million lives);
An "ultra" scenario that is worse than the Spanish flu outbreak.
Although the 1918-19 flu outbreak probably originated in Asia, it was known as the Spanish flu because the Spanish media were the first to report on its impact.
Since bird flu first appeared in China's Guangdong province -- which adjoins Hong Kong -- in 1996, the disease has claimed more than 90 human lives -- almost all in Asia, with the most recent deaths in Turkey.
In addition, about 200 million birds around the world have died or been culled.
Outside of Asia, there have been bird flu outbreaks in Greece, Italy, Turkey, Croatia, Russia, Azerbaijan and Romania in Europe, Iraq and Iran in the Middle East and in Nigeria, Africa. (Full story)
This spread of the disease from Asia to the fringes of Europe in recent weeks has prompted massive global attention on possible prevention measures, with the U.S., the EU and countries such as China and Japan committing hefty financial and human resources to combating the disease.
But the new Lowy Institute report, by the Australian National University's Prof. Warwick McKibbin and research fellow Dr Alexandra Sidorenko, says the major difficulty with influenza vaccine development is "the need to hit the constantly moving target as the virus mutates very rapidly."
Their observation follows a scientific study released last week which said bird flu was much more diverse than previously thought, with at least four distinct types of the deadly H5N1 virus (Full story).
In that study, a group of 29 scientists around the globe found that the virus was both more genetically diverse and able to survive in birds showing no signs of illness.
One of the researchers, Dr. Malik Peiris, professor of microbiology at Hong Kong University, told CNN on February 8 that regional virus types meant there was a need to look for "broad cross-protection" rather than a single vaccine.
Peiris said that while wild birds may contribute to the introduction and spread of bird flu, the perpetuation of the disease was through stocks of domestic poultry. He said no country was fully prepared to combat the disease, which needed to be tracked back and tackled at its source.
Further mutation
So far, all but a handful of cases of human sickness have been caused by direct contact with sick birds, suggesting the virus is unable to move easily among humans.
But health officials have warned that with continued exposure to people, the virus could mutate further and develop that ability.
While scientists scramble to prepare an effective medical response, the Lowy Institute report primarily looks at the macroeconomic impact of a flu pandemic.
It said there would be four main sets of "shocks" for each scenario: shocks to the labor force (through deaths and dislocation to production); additional supply shocks through increased costs; demand shocks; and risk premium shocks, involving financial flows.
In the worst scenario, it said the death toll could reach 28.4 million in China, 24 million in India, 11.4 million in Indonesia, 4.1 million in the Philippines, 2.1 million in Japan, 2.0 million in the United States and 5.6 million in Europe. In the world's least developed countries, the toll could top 33 million.
The study's figure of 142 million possible deaths is similar to an earlier estimate of 150 million deaths by World Health Organization senior official David Nabarro, when he was named as head of the United Nations avian flu response team in September last year.
The Lowy Institute study found that East Asian economies would be proportionately more affected than the United States or Europe. In the "ultra" or worst-case scenario, Hong Kong's economy, for example, would shrink by more than 53 percent.
"This is clearly a major economic catastrophe," the report's authors note.
"The large scale collapse of Asia causes global trade flows to dry up and capital to flow to safe havens in North America and Europe."
Japan would experience a larger shock than other industrialized economies, but a smaller shock than the rest of East Asia. However, its integration with the collapsing East Asian economies means it would take a further shock through declining trade flows.
The authors say a "key part of the story" is the monetary policy response.
"Those countries that tend to focus on preventing exchange rate changes are coincidentally the countries that experience the largest epidemiological shocks," they say.
"This is particularly true of Hong Kong, which receives the largest shocks and has the most rigid exchange rate regime."
The report concludes that a "large investment of resources" should be dedicated to preventing an outbreak of pandemic influenza.
The Lowy Institute report is authored by Prof. Warwick McKibbin, professorial fellow at the institute and Professor of Economics at the Australian National University (ANU); and Dr Alexandra Sidorenko, a research fellow at the ANU's National Center for Epidemiology and Population Health, and adjunct research fellow at the ANU's Australian Center for Economic Research on Health.
<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Bird flu 'could take 142m lives'
Worst case economic cost is $4.4 trillion</font>
Thursday, February 16, 2006; Posted: 10:28 a.m. EST (15:28 GMT)
<A href="http://www.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/conditions/02/15/birdflu.cost/index.html">www.cnn.com</a></center>
SYDNEY, Australia (CNN) -- As many as 142 million people around the world could die if bird flu turns into a "worst case" influenza pandemic, according to a sobering new study of its possible consequences.
And global economic losses could run to $4.4 trillion -- the equivalent of wiping out the Japanese economy's annual output.</b>
The study, prepared for the Sydney, Australia-based Lowy Institute think tank, says there are "enormous uncertainties" about whether a flu pandemic might happen, and where and when it might happen first.
But it says even a mild pandemic could kill 1.4 million people and cost $330 billion.
In its "ultra" or worst-case scenario, Hong Kong's economy is halved, the large-scale collapse of Asian economic activity causes global trade flows to dry up, and money flows out to safe havens in North America and Europe. Deaths could top 28 million in China and 24 million in India.
The report's release in Sydney Thursday comes as two more countries in Europe -- Germany and Austria -- report that the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus has been detected in wild fowl (Full story).
The Lowy Institute's report, titled Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza, looks at four possible scenarios:
Mild, in which the pandemic is similar to the 1968-69 Hong Kong flu;
Moderate, similar to the 1957 Asian flu;
Severe, similar to the 1918-19 Spanish flu (which infected an estimated 1 billion people and claimed as many as 50 million lives);
An "ultra" scenario that is worse than the Spanish flu outbreak.
Although the 1918-19 flu outbreak probably originated in Asia, it was known as the Spanish flu because the Spanish media were the first to report on its impact.
Since bird flu first appeared in China's Guangdong province -- which adjoins Hong Kong -- in 1996, the disease has claimed more than 90 human lives -- almost all in Asia, with the most recent deaths in Turkey.
In addition, about 200 million birds around the world have died or been culled.
Outside of Asia, there have been bird flu outbreaks in Greece, Italy, Turkey, Croatia, Russia, Azerbaijan and Romania in Europe, Iraq and Iran in the Middle East and in Nigeria, Africa. (Full story)
This spread of the disease from Asia to the fringes of Europe in recent weeks has prompted massive global attention on possible prevention measures, with the U.S., the EU and countries such as China and Japan committing hefty financial and human resources to combating the disease.
But the new Lowy Institute report, by the Australian National University's Prof. Warwick McKibbin and research fellow Dr Alexandra Sidorenko, says the major difficulty with influenza vaccine development is "the need to hit the constantly moving target as the virus mutates very rapidly."
Their observation follows a scientific study released last week which said bird flu was much more diverse than previously thought, with at least four distinct types of the deadly H5N1 virus (Full story).
In that study, a group of 29 scientists around the globe found that the virus was both more genetically diverse and able to survive in birds showing no signs of illness.
One of the researchers, Dr. Malik Peiris, professor of microbiology at Hong Kong University, told CNN on February 8 that regional virus types meant there was a need to look for "broad cross-protection" rather than a single vaccine.
Peiris said that while wild birds may contribute to the introduction and spread of bird flu, the perpetuation of the disease was through stocks of domestic poultry. He said no country was fully prepared to combat the disease, which needed to be tracked back and tackled at its source.
Further mutation
So far, all but a handful of cases of human sickness have been caused by direct contact with sick birds, suggesting the virus is unable to move easily among humans.
But health officials have warned that with continued exposure to people, the virus could mutate further and develop that ability.
While scientists scramble to prepare an effective medical response, the Lowy Institute report primarily looks at the macroeconomic impact of a flu pandemic.
It said there would be four main sets of "shocks" for each scenario: shocks to the labor force (through deaths and dislocation to production); additional supply shocks through increased costs; demand shocks; and risk premium shocks, involving financial flows.
In the worst scenario, it said the death toll could reach 28.4 million in China, 24 million in India, 11.4 million in Indonesia, 4.1 million in the Philippines, 2.1 million in Japan, 2.0 million in the United States and 5.6 million in Europe. In the world's least developed countries, the toll could top 33 million.
The study's figure of 142 million possible deaths is similar to an earlier estimate of 150 million deaths by World Health Organization senior official David Nabarro, when he was named as head of the United Nations avian flu response team in September last year.
The Lowy Institute study found that East Asian economies would be proportionately more affected than the United States or Europe. In the "ultra" or worst-case scenario, Hong Kong's economy, for example, would shrink by more than 53 percent.
"This is clearly a major economic catastrophe," the report's authors note.
"The large scale collapse of Asia causes global trade flows to dry up and capital to flow to safe havens in North America and Europe."
Japan would experience a larger shock than other industrialized economies, but a smaller shock than the rest of East Asia. However, its integration with the collapsing East Asian economies means it would take a further shock through declining trade flows.
The authors say a "key part of the story" is the monetary policy response.
"Those countries that tend to focus on preventing exchange rate changes are coincidentally the countries that experience the largest epidemiological shocks," they say.
"This is particularly true of Hong Kong, which receives the largest shocks and has the most rigid exchange rate regime."
The report concludes that a "large investment of resources" should be dedicated to preventing an outbreak of pandemic influenza.
The Lowy Institute report is authored by Prof. Warwick McKibbin, professorial fellow at the institute and Professor of Economics at the Australian National University (ANU); and Dr Alexandra Sidorenko, a research fellow at the ANU's National Center for Epidemiology and Population Health, and adjunct research fellow at the ANU's Australian Center for Economic Research on Health.
PCViking
Lutefisk Survivor
WHO: Bird Flu officially out of control
February 17, 2006
Scientists can predict a natural disaster and its consequences. But as we know from bitter experience with Hurricane Katrina's devastation of New Orleans, governments do not always prepare for or respond adequately to a disaster's effects. An avian flu pandemic is a disaster waiting to happen.
With the spread in recent weeks of avian flu cases through southern and central Europe and, more important, in sub-Saharan Africa, the World Health Organization considers the bird epidemic - which is often fatal when transmitted to humans - officially out of control.
European authorities issued stringent poultry farm restrictions after infected birds were found in Italy, Bulgaria, Greece, Germany and Denmark. But earlier mass vaccination of poultry and the extermination of suspected flocks in Asia failed to stop the spread. In Africa, where human cases already have surfaced, there is no money available to compensate poor farmers for the slaughter of their sole source of income. The continent could well become a giant incubator for the flu.
The infections generally follow the global routes of migratory birds that mingle with domestic fowl. And it's only a matter of time, some scientists say, before birds carrying the virus cross the Atlantic and begin to appear in this hemisphere.
Yet the U.S. government has done little of consequence to prepare for the possible rise of this epidemic. Congress has allocated $280 million for flu surveillance and preparedness abroad, but none of it has been spent - and now it's too late to use that money effectively. President George W. Bush has set a goal of creating 81 million courses of Tamiflu, an anti-viral drug capable of alleviating flu symptoms in humans. But the United States has a current stockpile of only 4.3 million courses of Tamiflu, and it's unclear how quickly pharmaceutical companies can produce more. In any case, the virus could mutate as it spreads and Tamiflu may not work then.
The real hope lies in the development of new, more effective bird vaccines. Crash vaccine programs are underway in Asia and the United States, but there is little if any coordination among them.
Bird flu may not become a pandemic, but Washington must be prepared for it and devote more money and greater urgency to preventing it. And time is running out.
http://www.newsday.com/news/opinion...7840,print.story?coll=ny-editorials-headlines
The next disaster?
Do the work now on avian flu
Do the work now on avian flu
February 17, 2006
Scientists can predict a natural disaster and its consequences. But as we know from bitter experience with Hurricane Katrina's devastation of New Orleans, governments do not always prepare for or respond adequately to a disaster's effects. An avian flu pandemic is a disaster waiting to happen.
With the spread in recent weeks of avian flu cases through southern and central Europe and, more important, in sub-Saharan Africa, the World Health Organization considers the bird epidemic - which is often fatal when transmitted to humans - officially out of control.
European authorities issued stringent poultry farm restrictions after infected birds were found in Italy, Bulgaria, Greece, Germany and Denmark. But earlier mass vaccination of poultry and the extermination of suspected flocks in Asia failed to stop the spread. In Africa, where human cases already have surfaced, there is no money available to compensate poor farmers for the slaughter of their sole source of income. The continent could well become a giant incubator for the flu.
The infections generally follow the global routes of migratory birds that mingle with domestic fowl. And it's only a matter of time, some scientists say, before birds carrying the virus cross the Atlantic and begin to appear in this hemisphere.
Yet the U.S. government has done little of consequence to prepare for the possible rise of this epidemic. Congress has allocated $280 million for flu surveillance and preparedness abroad, but none of it has been spent - and now it's too late to use that money effectively. President George W. Bush has set a goal of creating 81 million courses of Tamiflu, an anti-viral drug capable of alleviating flu symptoms in humans. But the United States has a current stockpile of only 4.3 million courses of Tamiflu, and it's unclear how quickly pharmaceutical companies can produce more. In any case, the virus could mutate as it spreads and Tamiflu may not work then.
The real hope lies in the development of new, more effective bird vaccines. Crash vaccine programs are underway in Asia and the United States, but there is little if any coordination among them.
Bird flu may not become a pandemic, but Washington must be prepared for it and devote more money and greater urgency to preventing it. And time is running out.
http://www.newsday.com/news/opinion...7840,print.story?coll=ny-editorials-headlines
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
=
<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>Bird Flu: Concern Grows Over Possible Spread in West Africa</font>
PRESS RELEASE
February 17, 2006
Rome
<A href="http://allafrica.com/stories/200602170442.html">a;;africa.com</a></center>
FAO today expressed growing concern that the bird flu virus H5N1 may spread to other countries in West Africa following the discovery of the virus in Nigeria last week. The effects on a region already facing severe malnutrition would be devastating, the UN agency warned.</b>
"We should provide incentives to poor African farmers to report immediately if they suspect an outbreak among poultry, and discourage them from rushing to sell birds on the market," said Joseph Domenech, FAO's Chief Veterinary Officer, who is currently in Nigeria with a joint FAO/OIE team of experts.
The country of greatest concern is Niger, which directly borders the affected areas in Nigeria and where over two million people are already vulnerable to acute hunger.
"The highly pathogenic avian influenza virus poses a very serious threat to animal health in West Africa. If a poultry epidemic should develop beyond the boundaries of Nigeria the effects would be disastrous for the livelihoods and the food security of millions of people," said Domenech.
The agency noted that since the first reports of H5N1 outbreaks in Asia at the end of 2003 nearly 200 million domestic poultry have died or been culled in order to contain its spread. The economic loss to the economy of affected Asian countries has been estimated around US$10 billion.
Urgently needed prevention measures
In contrast to Europe, where most poultry production takes place on large commercial farms, in Africa poultry is often raised in backyards and is therefore more difficult to control. Widespread public awareness campaigns regarding safe farming practises and improved hygiene are essential to help contain the spread of the virus.
"People need to be informed about the importance of basic hygiene notably washing hands after touching poultry and disinfecting boots or shoes before entering or leaving a poultry farm. They should also be aware of suitable farming practices such as ensuring that poultry are roofed-in to avoid any contact with wild birds and not mixing chickens with other species, such as ducks," said Juan Lubroth, Senior Officer of FAO's Animal Production and Health Division.
FAO has advised veterinary authorities in Nigeria to stamp out the outbreaks through immediate humane culling and safe disposal and to strictly control the movement of people and animals from and to infected areas and neighbouring countries.
Many countries, including Senegal, Guinea, Sierra Leone and Mauritania have prepared bird flu contingency plans. "Such plans and field operations must be fully supported by national governments with participation of the private sector. The international community should continue to provide expertise and financial resources," Lubroth said.
At the Beijing Pledging Conference in mid January 2006 the international community pledged a total of US$ 1.9 billion. The World Bank estimates that a human influenza pandemic caused by a virus mutated from avian flu could cost the global economy US$ 800 billion per year.
<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>Bird Flu: Concern Grows Over Possible Spread in West Africa</font>
PRESS RELEASE
February 17, 2006
Rome
<A href="http://allafrica.com/stories/200602170442.html">a;;africa.com</a></center>
FAO today expressed growing concern that the bird flu virus H5N1 may spread to other countries in West Africa following the discovery of the virus in Nigeria last week. The effects on a region already facing severe malnutrition would be devastating, the UN agency warned.</b>
"We should provide incentives to poor African farmers to report immediately if they suspect an outbreak among poultry, and discourage them from rushing to sell birds on the market," said Joseph Domenech, FAO's Chief Veterinary Officer, who is currently in Nigeria with a joint FAO/OIE team of experts.
The country of greatest concern is Niger, which directly borders the affected areas in Nigeria and where over two million people are already vulnerable to acute hunger.
"The highly pathogenic avian influenza virus poses a very serious threat to animal health in West Africa. If a poultry epidemic should develop beyond the boundaries of Nigeria the effects would be disastrous for the livelihoods and the food security of millions of people," said Domenech.
The agency noted that since the first reports of H5N1 outbreaks in Asia at the end of 2003 nearly 200 million domestic poultry have died or been culled in order to contain its spread. The economic loss to the economy of affected Asian countries has been estimated around US$10 billion.
Urgently needed prevention measures
In contrast to Europe, where most poultry production takes place on large commercial farms, in Africa poultry is often raised in backyards and is therefore more difficult to control. Widespread public awareness campaigns regarding safe farming practises and improved hygiene are essential to help contain the spread of the virus.
"People need to be informed about the importance of basic hygiene notably washing hands after touching poultry and disinfecting boots or shoes before entering or leaving a poultry farm. They should also be aware of suitable farming practices such as ensuring that poultry are roofed-in to avoid any contact with wild birds and not mixing chickens with other species, such as ducks," said Juan Lubroth, Senior Officer of FAO's Animal Production and Health Division.
FAO has advised veterinary authorities in Nigeria to stamp out the outbreaks through immediate humane culling and safe disposal and to strictly control the movement of people and animals from and to infected areas and neighbouring countries.
Many countries, including Senegal, Guinea, Sierra Leone and Mauritania have prepared bird flu contingency plans. "Such plans and field operations must be fully supported by national governments with participation of the private sector. The international community should continue to provide expertise and financial resources," Lubroth said.
At the Beijing Pledging Conference in mid January 2006 the international community pledged a total of US$ 1.9 billion. The World Bank estimates that a human influenza pandemic caused by a virus mutated from avian flu could cost the global economy US$ 800 billion per year.
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
=
<B><center>Friday, 17 February 2006, 16:38 GMT
<font size=+1 color=green>Iraq confirms new bird flu death </font>
<A href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4725016.stm">news.bbc.co.uk</a></center>
The Iraqi authorities have already culled thousands of domestic birds
The Iraqi health ministry has confirmed that a 39-year-old man who died in northern Iraq in January, was killed by the H5N1 strain of bird flu.
Hamasour Mustafa developed symptoms of the virus on 18 January and died on 27 January in the city of Sulaimaniya. </b>
He was the uncle of the country's first human victim, Shanjin Abdel Qader, 15, who died 10 days earlier.
The World Health Organisation has sent experts in infection control and epidemiology to the region to help.
The Iraqi authorities have already culled a large number of domestic birds.
The affected area borders Turkey, where bird flu has been found in poultry and four people have died of the virus.
Tests
Mr Mustafa, from a village close to the border, had a documented history of exposure to infected birds, a statement by the WHO said.
Bird Flu
He also lived in the same house as his niece and cared for her while she was sick.
The WHO said it had now resolved the "problems with the shipment of patient specimens" that had been the cause of the delay in confirming the cause of Mr Mustafa's death.
In addition to Mr Mustafa, the samples of 14 other patients were tested at the US Naval Medical Research Unit in Cairo. All the other test results were negative.
A second shipment of samples from other suspected cases in Iraq arrived in Cairo on Thursday, the WHO said. Duplicate samples have been sent to a laboratory in the UK.
Results are expected within the next few days.
<B><center>Friday, 17 February 2006, 16:38 GMT
<font size=+1 color=green>Iraq confirms new bird flu death </font>
<A href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4725016.stm">news.bbc.co.uk</a></center>
The Iraqi authorities have already culled thousands of domestic birds
The Iraqi health ministry has confirmed that a 39-year-old man who died in northern Iraq in January, was killed by the H5N1 strain of bird flu.
Hamasour Mustafa developed symptoms of the virus on 18 January and died on 27 January in the city of Sulaimaniya. </b>
He was the uncle of the country's first human victim, Shanjin Abdel Qader, 15, who died 10 days earlier.
The World Health Organisation has sent experts in infection control and epidemiology to the region to help.
The Iraqi authorities have already culled a large number of domestic birds.
The affected area borders Turkey, where bird flu has been found in poultry and four people have died of the virus.
Tests
Mr Mustafa, from a village close to the border, had a documented history of exposure to infected birds, a statement by the WHO said.
Bird Flu
He also lived in the same house as his niece and cared for her while she was sick.
The WHO said it had now resolved the "problems with the shipment of patient specimens" that had been the cause of the delay in confirming the cause of Mr Mustafa's death.
In addition to Mr Mustafa, the samples of 14 other patients were tested at the US Naval Medical Research Unit in Cairo. All the other test results were negative.
A second shipment of samples from other suspected cases in Iraq arrived in Cairo on Thursday, the WHO said. Duplicate samples have been sent to a laboratory in the UK.
Results are expected within the next few days.
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
=
<B><center>Australia
<font size=+1 color=green>Bird flu pandemic would 'kill millions, shut down economy'</font>
February 16 2006
<A href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200602/s1571384.htm">www.abc.net.au</a></center>
Modelling of the consequences of a global outbreak of bird flu has predicted a worldwide recession and a massive death toll.
Two papers have been released showing the likely impact of a pandemic.</b>
The Lowy Institute for International Policy says the deadly strain of the bird flu is a likely candidate for the next human influenza pandemic.
The institute and the Australian National University (ANU) have modelled the potential impact of a global pandemic.
They found there could be more than 142 million deaths worldwide, including 214,000 in Australia.
Researcher, Professor Warwick McKibbin, says the worst case scenario would also have a devastating economic impact.
"Once we get up to the ultra scenario, really all bets are off because even modelling that in our model was extremely difficult," he said.
"Because you're almost closing down the world economy."
Federal treasury has released its own study, finding a nationwide flu outbreak would kill 40,000 Australians and lead to a loss of GDP of more than 5 per cent.
<B><center>Australia
<font size=+1 color=green>Bird flu pandemic would 'kill millions, shut down economy'</font>
February 16 2006
<A href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200602/s1571384.htm">www.abc.net.au</a></center>
Modelling of the consequences of a global outbreak of bird flu has predicted a worldwide recession and a massive death toll.
Two papers have been released showing the likely impact of a pandemic.</b>
The Lowy Institute for International Policy says the deadly strain of the bird flu is a likely candidate for the next human influenza pandemic.
The institute and the Australian National University (ANU) have modelled the potential impact of a global pandemic.
They found there could be more than 142 million deaths worldwide, including 214,000 in Australia.
Researcher, Professor Warwick McKibbin, says the worst case scenario would also have a devastating economic impact.
"Once we get up to the ultra scenario, really all bets are off because even modelling that in our model was extremely difficult," he said.
"Because you're almost closing down the world economy."
Federal treasury has released its own study, finding a nationwide flu outbreak would kill 40,000 Australians and lead to a loss of GDP of more than 5 per cent.
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
=
<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>German bird flu most deadly </font>
Thursday February 16, 2006 14:53 - (SA)
<A href="http://www.sundaytimes.co.za/zones/sundaytimesNEW/basket7st/basket7st1140094402.aspx">www.sundaytimes.co.za</a></center>
BERLIN - The strain of the H5N1 bird flu found in dead swans in Germany is the highly pathogenic type which is potentially deadly for humans, Agriculture Minister Horst Seehofer has said.
He said he had been informed by the German laboratory for veterinary medicine, the Friedrich Loeffler Institute, that the swans "had the highly pathogenic type of the virus". </b>
"It is a sub-type of H5N1, which first appeared among poultry in China last year," Seehofer said.
Samples from the dead swans found on the Baltic Sea island of Ruegen have been sent to a European Union-approved laboratory in Weybridge, England, to establish whether the virus was the more dangerous form.
It was not immediately clear if Seehofer was referring to the tests carried out by that laboratory.
Bird flu has already killed at least 90 people - almost half those who caught it - mostly in Southeast Asia and China where it first erupted but also in the Asian part of Turkey and northern Iraq.
<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>German bird flu most deadly </font>
Thursday February 16, 2006 14:53 - (SA)
<A href="http://www.sundaytimes.co.za/zones/sundaytimesNEW/basket7st/basket7st1140094402.aspx">www.sundaytimes.co.za</a></center>
BERLIN - The strain of the H5N1 bird flu found in dead swans in Germany is the highly pathogenic type which is potentially deadly for humans, Agriculture Minister Horst Seehofer has said.
He said he had been informed by the German laboratory for veterinary medicine, the Friedrich Loeffler Institute, that the swans "had the highly pathogenic type of the virus". </b>
"It is a sub-type of H5N1, which first appeared among poultry in China last year," Seehofer said.
Samples from the dead swans found on the Baltic Sea island of Ruegen have been sent to a European Union-approved laboratory in Weybridge, England, to establish whether the virus was the more dangerous form.
It was not immediately clear if Seehofer was referring to the tests carried out by that laboratory.
Bird flu has already killed at least 90 people - almost half those who caught it - mostly in Southeast Asia and China where it first erupted but also in the Asian part of Turkey and northern Iraq.
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
=
<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Europe puts poultry indoors as bird flu cases multipy</font>
02-17-2006, 12h56
BUCHAREST (AFP)
<A href="http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=108504">www.turkishpress.com</a></center>
Europe threw up protective zones to keep the ever-expanding bird flu from spreading to humans and devastating the continent's poultry industry, even as researchers warned a future pandemic could kill 142 million people worldwide.</b>
Romania was deemed particularly at risk of human infection, the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced Friday. With bird flu reported at 31 separate sites, "Romania runs the risk of human contamination at any moment," WHO expert Guenael Rodier said at the end of a four-day inspection tour.
Officials in Asia and Africa, meanwhile, announced further measures to stem the relentless avian spread of the H5N1 virus, which has killed 91 people since 2003, all but a handful in China and Southeast Asia.
France joined a growing list of European nations with confirmed or suspected bird flu cases when two dead ducks were discovered in a wildlife reserve north of Paris. Tests results showing whether the birds carried the H5N1 strain were expected later Friday.
A fresh avian outbreak was also reported at a poultry farm in the southern Russian province of Dagestan, the second such case in the region this week.
To date, only persons coming into regular contact with infected farm fowl -- mainly chickens -- have contracted the disease, which has proven fatal in half the cases recorded.
But should the virus mutate into a form communicable between humans, as has happened in major flu outbreaks in the past, the consequences could be catastrophic, top experts concluded in a study released this week in Australia.
A global bird flu pandemic could kill as many as 142 million people and wipe out some 4.4 trillion US dollars of economic output, according to a worst-case scenario published by the Lowy Institute, an Australian independent policy think tank.
"The mild scenario is estimated to cost the world 1.4 million lives and close to 0.8 percent of GDP (more than 300 billion US dollars) in lost economic output," say the authors, economic modeller and Reserve Bank of Australia board member Professor Warwick McKibbin and health expert Dr. Alexandra Sidorenko of the Australian National University.
In the European Union, said to be on "high alert", leaders called for calm as officials took measures to prevent the recent outbreak of H5N1 in wild, migrating birds -- mainly swans -- from spreading to farm poultry.
Sales of chicken have dropped up all across Europe, threatening to throw the continent's huge poultry industry into crisis.
One sign of mounting concern was the flood of orders pouring into the world's number one manufacturer of respiratory masks in France.
Germany, the Netherlands and Slovenia joined other European nations Friday by ordering all poultry kept indoors to ensure that domestic hens, ducks and geese do not come into contact with infected wild birds.
The other countries are Denmark, France, Greece, Luxembourg and Sweden.
The Netherlands went a step further and sought authorization from the European Commission to vaccinate free-range poultry against avian flu, the agriculture ministry said Friday.
In an earlier measure, the EU's Standing Committee on the Food Chain and Animal Health agreed on the automatic creation of three-kilometer (two-mile) protection zones and 10-kilometer surveillance zones around outbreaks of flu in wild birds.
The spread of the disease to poultry would trigger the creation of "buffer zones" which could cover an entire region of a country, and restrict the transport of poultry.
In Hong Kong, where the first reported outbreak of H5N1 in 1997 killed six people, the sale of live chickens at markets is to be banned by 2009, the South China Morning Post reported.
In Nigeria, officials announced another suspected H5N1 case at another farm in the northern state of Katsina, while health officials pressed on with the slaughter of domestic birds.
Meanwhile, authorities in neighboring Niger announced a state of alert and a 3.4-million-euro (four-million-dollar) emergency plan to monitor the border with Nigeria.
In Europe, the presence of H5N1 virus has so far been verified in Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Germany, Greece, Italy, Romania, Slovenia, Ukraine and the European part of Russia. Almost all the cases involve migratory wild swans.
<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Europe puts poultry indoors as bird flu cases multipy</font>
02-17-2006, 12h56
BUCHAREST (AFP)
<A href="http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=108504">www.turkishpress.com</a></center>
Europe threw up protective zones to keep the ever-expanding bird flu from spreading to humans and devastating the continent's poultry industry, even as researchers warned a future pandemic could kill 142 million people worldwide.</b>
Romania was deemed particularly at risk of human infection, the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced Friday. With bird flu reported at 31 separate sites, "Romania runs the risk of human contamination at any moment," WHO expert Guenael Rodier said at the end of a four-day inspection tour.
Officials in Asia and Africa, meanwhile, announced further measures to stem the relentless avian spread of the H5N1 virus, which has killed 91 people since 2003, all but a handful in China and Southeast Asia.
France joined a growing list of European nations with confirmed or suspected bird flu cases when two dead ducks were discovered in a wildlife reserve north of Paris. Tests results showing whether the birds carried the H5N1 strain were expected later Friday.
A fresh avian outbreak was also reported at a poultry farm in the southern Russian province of Dagestan, the second such case in the region this week.
To date, only persons coming into regular contact with infected farm fowl -- mainly chickens -- have contracted the disease, which has proven fatal in half the cases recorded.
But should the virus mutate into a form communicable between humans, as has happened in major flu outbreaks in the past, the consequences could be catastrophic, top experts concluded in a study released this week in Australia.
A global bird flu pandemic could kill as many as 142 million people and wipe out some 4.4 trillion US dollars of economic output, according to a worst-case scenario published by the Lowy Institute, an Australian independent policy think tank.
"The mild scenario is estimated to cost the world 1.4 million lives and close to 0.8 percent of GDP (more than 300 billion US dollars) in lost economic output," say the authors, economic modeller and Reserve Bank of Australia board member Professor Warwick McKibbin and health expert Dr. Alexandra Sidorenko of the Australian National University.
In the European Union, said to be on "high alert", leaders called for calm as officials took measures to prevent the recent outbreak of H5N1 in wild, migrating birds -- mainly swans -- from spreading to farm poultry.
Sales of chicken have dropped up all across Europe, threatening to throw the continent's huge poultry industry into crisis.
One sign of mounting concern was the flood of orders pouring into the world's number one manufacturer of respiratory masks in France.
Germany, the Netherlands and Slovenia joined other European nations Friday by ordering all poultry kept indoors to ensure that domestic hens, ducks and geese do not come into contact with infected wild birds.
The other countries are Denmark, France, Greece, Luxembourg and Sweden.
The Netherlands went a step further and sought authorization from the European Commission to vaccinate free-range poultry against avian flu, the agriculture ministry said Friday.
In an earlier measure, the EU's Standing Committee on the Food Chain and Animal Health agreed on the automatic creation of three-kilometer (two-mile) protection zones and 10-kilometer surveillance zones around outbreaks of flu in wild birds.
The spread of the disease to poultry would trigger the creation of "buffer zones" which could cover an entire region of a country, and restrict the transport of poultry.
In Hong Kong, where the first reported outbreak of H5N1 in 1997 killed six people, the sale of live chickens at markets is to be banned by 2009, the South China Morning Post reported.
In Nigeria, officials announced another suspected H5N1 case at another farm in the northern state of Katsina, while health officials pressed on with the slaughter of domestic birds.
Meanwhile, authorities in neighboring Niger announced a state of alert and a 3.4-million-euro (four-million-dollar) emergency plan to monitor the border with Nigeria.
In Europe, the presence of H5N1 virus has so far been verified in Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Germany, Greece, Italy, Romania, Slovenia, Ukraine and the European part of Russia. Almost all the cases involve migratory wild swans.
PCViking
Lutefisk Survivor
Hong Kong vigilant on virus threat
Leaders go into overdrive to prevent bird flu from hitting city
Leaders go into overdrive to prevent bird flu from hitting city
Thursday, February 16, 2006; Posted: 10:48 p.m. EST (03:48 GMT)
HONG KONG, China (Reuters) -- For a first-world economy such as Hong Kong, it suffers from a dubious reputation.
It was here that the H5N1 bird flu virus made its first known jump to humans in 1997, and it was also this financial hub which helped export the SARS disease to the rest of the world in 2003.
Eager to clear its name, Hong Kong has gone into overdrive in recent months to keep out the H5N1 virus, and the discovery of the disease in six wild birds and two chickens found dead in the territory in the past three weeks has hardened its resolve.
Thanks to government exhortations and growing public alarm, residents have taken to reporting every dead bird they find, which are then taken away and tested for the virus.
Officials have also launched an extensive campaign to teach residents how to avoid infection and to drop countries battling the deadly disease from their holiday destinations.
Brochures printed in Tagalog, Indonesian, Thai, Nepali, Hindi and Urdu have been distributed to the city's foreign minorities and, in a show of its commitment to the cause, Chief Executive Donald Tsang participated in an exercise in November to test the readiness of his government for a bird flu pandemic.
Since taking over in mid-2005, political analysts say Tsang has done much to show he is more responsive and more in touch with the people than his unpopular predecessor, Tung Chee-hwa.
Tsang is also well aware that his political masters in Beijing are closely watching his performance and will decide if he gets to stay in his job when the selection of the city's next leader is due in 2007.
Political scientist Joseph Cheng said that after SARS, the government was fully aware of how disastrous the consequences could be if it was not seen to have done everything possible to avert such a crisis.
"It fully understands the impact now. In a pandemic, it will get the blame and if the economy goes down, it will be blamed too. Everyone is very careful after EK Yeoh resigned," Cheng said, referring to the health minister who resigned to shoulder the blame for the government's handling of SARS.
"There is the international image factor. Hong Kong wants to show it has good governance and can handle these things. It would have such a tremendous impact on tourism otherwise."
From chickens to mushrooms
Its efforts seem to have won admiration. Risk consultant Hill & Associates recently rated the response of the Hong Kong government to the threat of avian flu so far as "excellent".
After 1997, when H5N1 killed six people in the city, Hong Kong instituted biosecurity measures at all its chicken farms, required all domestic chickens to be vaccinated, stockpiled anti-viral drugs and built over 1,400 hospital isolation units.
Last week, its legislature passed an emergency law banning backyard poultry and it is now urging chicken farmers to switch to growing mushrooms, tomatoes and flowers.
"We hope to cut the number of poultry farm licenses and bring the chicken population down to 2 million from 3.7 million," said a government spokesman. "But what can these chicken farmers do afterwards? We will provide loans to help them to change."
Experts worry the virus might gain the ability to be passed efficiently among humans and set off a pandemic, killing millions. One key precaution, they say, is to minimize contact between humans and chickens -- a Herculean task in Asia given how closely people and chickens live.
But for all its efforts, Hong Kong is not without its own problems. The city frets constantly about local officials in mainland China not being forthcoming about disease outbreaks -- which partly caused the spread of SARS in 2003.
Strong resistance from the local poultry industry has also prevented the government from introducing a central abattoir -- something the administration wanted to do after 1997.
"It's a difficult issue because it goes to the heart of some peoples' livelihoods but in the end, they're going to have to bite the bullet," said a spokesman for the World Health Organization, which often holds Hong Kong up as a shining example for the rest of the world in its anti-bird flu efforts.
http://www.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/conditions/02/16/birdflu.hongkong.reut/index.html
ainitfunny
Saved, to glorify God.
NOW IS THE TIME TO FILL THE FREEZER UP WITH CHICKEN, BEFORE THE FLU HITS AMERICA.
TIK
Inactive
Just need to comment on this because I've been one of the "oh it's not THAT bad" naysayers around this discussion group. I've lived through the West Nile Virus and that squirrel poop scare a few years ago (can't remember the name of it), and MSM was predicting horrible dire things that never really transpired. So I'm a bit skeptical and cynical. THAT BEING SAID--
I'm up here in Seattle for a family function, and was told that there was a recent "fireside" (LDS Church talk for a "special" presentation, usually an hour to 90mins long, on Sunday evenings--not a traditional service, more like a "information" meeting--could be on anything and for any age). This fireside was given by one of the counselors on the Presiding Bishopric from Salt Lake City HQ. Meaning, this is NOT what we call a "General Authority", but reports directly from Salt Lake. Sorry for the long description--just giving some credentials.
ANYWAYS....his talk was on emergency preparedness, and my MIL told us about it. What she said was at NO PROMPTING FROM ME!!! I didn't even ASK about it. She just started talking to us about it. What this counselor said is that the LDS Church has done their own research, and is realizing that when they tell members of the church to get "one year food storage together" that it is unrealistic for most members, and that actually they consider only 14% of church members actually do have one year food storage together (and I'm gratefully one of them). The church is softening its stance and will be urging members to store three months of food, water and supplies.
The counselor goes on to talk about the world condition, and starts to talk about Africa being ravaged by AIDS and the world is at war basically and blah blah blah. But then, according to my MIL, he gets very serious, turns from his PowerPoint presentation, and says to the audience, "Have you all heard of the bird flu?" Most people had. He then says, "The church has worked closely with the World Health Organization on the AIDS front in Africa, but the WHO is more concerned about the coming problems with the bird flu. And the church is taking notice of this." The counselor then says, "Research is showing that should an epidemic break out in America, that you may be quarantined in your homes for up to three months."
He paused. And then he said, "Do remember how many months the church wants you to be prepared for that I talked about earlier? Is there a coincidence here, or do you think there's something coming? Well, there is brothers and sisters. Be ready--the bird flu IS coming."
Now...personally, and some of you don't have to agree with this, and I frankly don't care...but personally, if I have a representative of the LDS Church telling me that I need to get prepared and then starts talking about the bird flu, something I've been poo-pooing, time for me to start backstroking and start preparing.
As if Iran wasn't bad enough....
My ears are now officially open about this bird flu issue.
I'm up here in Seattle for a family function, and was told that there was a recent "fireside" (LDS Church talk for a "special" presentation, usually an hour to 90mins long, on Sunday evenings--not a traditional service, more like a "information" meeting--could be on anything and for any age). This fireside was given by one of the counselors on the Presiding Bishopric from Salt Lake City HQ. Meaning, this is NOT what we call a "General Authority", but reports directly from Salt Lake. Sorry for the long description--just giving some credentials.
ANYWAYS....his talk was on emergency preparedness, and my MIL told us about it. What she said was at NO PROMPTING FROM ME!!! I didn't even ASK about it. She just started talking to us about it. What this counselor said is that the LDS Church has done their own research, and is realizing that when they tell members of the church to get "one year food storage together" that it is unrealistic for most members, and that actually they consider only 14% of church members actually do have one year food storage together (and I'm gratefully one of them). The church is softening its stance and will be urging members to store three months of food, water and supplies.
The counselor goes on to talk about the world condition, and starts to talk about Africa being ravaged by AIDS and the world is at war basically and blah blah blah. But then, according to my MIL, he gets very serious, turns from his PowerPoint presentation, and says to the audience, "Have you all heard of the bird flu?" Most people had. He then says, "The church has worked closely with the World Health Organization on the AIDS front in Africa, but the WHO is more concerned about the coming problems with the bird flu. And the church is taking notice of this." The counselor then says, "Research is showing that should an epidemic break out in America, that you may be quarantined in your homes for up to three months."
He paused. And then he said, "Do remember how many months the church wants you to be prepared for that I talked about earlier? Is there a coincidence here, or do you think there's something coming? Well, there is brothers and sisters. Be ready--the bird flu IS coming."
Now...personally, and some of you don't have to agree with this, and I frankly don't care...but personally, if I have a representative of the LDS Church telling me that I need to get prepared and then starts talking about the bird flu, something I've been poo-pooing, time for me to start backstroking and start preparing.
As if Iran wasn't bad enough....
My ears are now officially open about this bird flu issue.
Testing dead swan in the UK
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/cambridgeshire/4724266.stm
Officials from the State Veterinary Service have been called to a village in Cambridgeshire to examine the body of a dead swan.
The swan's body was found near the village of Great Abington, between Cambridge and Saffron Walden.
At a time of heightened alert over Bird Flu, the police called in specialist help after calls from passers-by.
The swan's body is to be taken to the European Union laboratory at Weybridge in Surrey.
Vets called after dead swan found
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/cambridgeshire/4724266.stm
Officials from the State Veterinary Service have been called to a village in Cambridgeshire to examine the body of a dead swan.
The swan's body was found near the village of Great Abington, between Cambridge and Saffron Walden.
At a time of heightened alert over Bird Flu, the police called in specialist help after calls from passers-by.
The swan's body is to be taken to the European Union laboratory at Weybridge in Surrey.
New Freedom
Veteran Member
TIK said:
Thanks TIK for sharing........soon everyone will have wished that their 'eyes had been opened' earlier so they can prepare. It is too serious of a crisis to ignore at this point......IMO!! As I've said before, 'timing will be everything' when this thing hits. Because the incubation period is so long, people will be infecting others before they are even aware they have it.......
OK, I gotta ask. Ive found two dead sparrows on the snow in the last two days. Granted its cold out but I this is abnormal in my opinion. At what point, or after how many dead birds should we call someone. I dont want to look paranoid or like a doomer.
Any advice would be appreciated.
Any advice would be appreciated.
Robin Hood
Veteran Member
The Public Health Director in the town where I work has been pro active in working on preperation for such an incident. I also know that he is not alone in doing this as he works in conjuction with other towns. However the "sheeple" are totally asleep as to this possibility as well as many other serious triggers. The media is silent on all. Its all "bread and circus".
rh
rh
New Freedom
Veteran Member
bored at work said:OK, I gotta ask. Ive found two dead sparrows on the snow in the last two days. Granted its cold out but I this is abnormal in my opinion. At what point, or after how many dead birds should we call someone. I dont want to look paranoid or like a doomer.
Any advice would be appreciated.
Maybe you should call your local public health department and report them. It couldn't hurt and it would be interested in seeing what they would say. Were the sparrows harmed in any way? Or were they perfect intact? If they hadn't been eaten by cats or any other animal, then they are probably diseased in some way. If you call, let us know what happens!