PCViking
Lutefisk Survivor
Link to yesterday's thread: http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=186415
02/15 | Panic as bird flu hits Italy
- Thread starter PCViking
- Start date
PCViking
Lutefisk Survivor
Panic as bird flu hits Italy
By DANIEL THOMAS BIRD flu edged closer to Britain yesterday as new cases of the killer virus emerged across Europe.
Italian health bosses tried to quell panic after 22 swans were found dead in the south.
Six have tested positive for the lethal H5N1 virus. Five more died 400 miles north around Venice.
Italy’s health minister Francesco Storace said: “I would appeal to the public not to panic.
“Do not touch dead birds. Report them to the nearest health office.”
Meanwhile, Austrian health officials are on full alert after another swan killed by bird flu was found six miles from their southern border in Maribor, Slovenia.
Both nations sent samples to the EU’s bird flu laboratory in Weybridge, Surrey, to determine whether they are the H5N1 strain which has killed 83 people, mostly in the Far East.
Health experts fear a strain will develop which can move from human to human, putting millions at risk worldwide.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2006070093,00.html
PCViking
Lutefisk Survivor
Hard Core Africa!
February 15, 2006 - 9:39AM
Priests who tear out the throats of live chickens in ritual sacrifices to Voodoo gods may risk contracting bird flu after the deadly virus reached Africa.
Voodoo priests in Benin, which borders with Nigeria where an outbreak of the deadly H5N1 virus was found in poultry last week, sacrifice animals to invoke blessings or favours from various gods.
Officials in the tiny West African country which is the home of the ancient religion say spreading the word about bird flu may help save the lives of Voodoo devotees.
"We have identified the groups at risk, including fetishists and followers of the Voodoo cult who sometimes kill animals with their teeth," Guillaume Hounsou-ve, director of livestock at Benin's Agriculture Ministry, told Reuters in an interview.
Sheep, goats and other animals are sometimes used for sacrifice, but the favourite offering is a chicken.
Priests commonly kill birds by ripping their throats out with their teeth or using a knife to cut their heads off, both of which would bring them into contact with chicken blood, one of the ways bird flu is thought to be spread to humans.
The disease has killed more than 90 people in Asia and Turkey since 2003.
Hounsou-ve and other senior officials in Benin have spent the past few days drafting an action plan to counter bird flu.
"We will target our messages, above all in regions where there are 'convents'" said Hounsou-ve, referring to the houses used for Voodoo rituals.
An estimated 60 per cent of Benin's 7 million people practice Voodoo, although many also follow other religions like Christianity or Islam.
Voodoo "convents" are found across Benin but more commonly in southern areas near the Atlantic seaboard.
Once known as the Slave Coast, many thousands of Africans were shipped from here by European traders during more than three centuries of slave trading, many taking their Voodoo beliefs with them to the New World, notably Haiti where rites and traditions from different parts of Africa met and evolved.
Voodoo as practiced in West Africa and the Caribbean encompasses a wide range of rituals, from sacrificing animals to dancing, in which devotees fall into trances said to be a form of possession by gods.
http://smh.com.au/news/World/Voodoo-priests-at-risk-of-bird-flu/2006/02/15/1139890768990.html
Voodoo priests at risk of bird flu
February 15, 2006 - 9:39AM
Priests who tear out the throats of live chickens in ritual sacrifices to Voodoo gods may risk contracting bird flu after the deadly virus reached Africa.
Voodoo priests in Benin, which borders with Nigeria where an outbreak of the deadly H5N1 virus was found in poultry last week, sacrifice animals to invoke blessings or favours from various gods.
Officials in the tiny West African country which is the home of the ancient religion say spreading the word about bird flu may help save the lives of Voodoo devotees.
"We have identified the groups at risk, including fetishists and followers of the Voodoo cult who sometimes kill animals with their teeth," Guillaume Hounsou-ve, director of livestock at Benin's Agriculture Ministry, told Reuters in an interview.
Sheep, goats and other animals are sometimes used for sacrifice, but the favourite offering is a chicken.
Priests commonly kill birds by ripping their throats out with their teeth or using a knife to cut their heads off, both of which would bring them into contact with chicken blood, one of the ways bird flu is thought to be spread to humans.
The disease has killed more than 90 people in Asia and Turkey since 2003.
Hounsou-ve and other senior officials in Benin have spent the past few days drafting an action plan to counter bird flu.
"We will target our messages, above all in regions where there are 'convents'" said Hounsou-ve, referring to the houses used for Voodoo rituals.
An estimated 60 per cent of Benin's 7 million people practice Voodoo, although many also follow other religions like Christianity or Islam.
Voodoo "convents" are found across Benin but more commonly in southern areas near the Atlantic seaboard.
Once known as the Slave Coast, many thousands of Africans were shipped from here by European traders during more than three centuries of slave trading, many taking their Voodoo beliefs with them to the New World, notably Haiti where rites and traditions from different parts of Africa met and evolved.
Voodoo as practiced in West Africa and the Caribbean encompasses a wide range of rituals, from sacrificing animals to dancing, in which devotees fall into trances said to be a form of possession by gods.
http://smh.com.au/news/World/Voodoo-priests-at-risk-of-bird-flu/2006/02/15/1139890768990.html
Morning Star
Groovy Hoosier
...and how many people from how many countries are in Italy right now?
PCViking
Lutefisk Survivor
13 Feb 2006 23:36 GMT
WASHINGTON (AP)--The government won't wait for bird flu to hit U.S. shores before granting liability protections to vaccine manufacturers and others that make products needed to battle a pandemic.
Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt said Monday that the administration soon would enter into contracts for bird flu vaccine, rapid tests to detect the virus, and technology that would make available vaccine go farther.
"At some point in that process, we'll need to deal with the issue of liability," he told reporters.
In December, Congress gave Leavitt the authority to grant liability waivers if a public health emergency exists.
Under the waivers, people injured by a vaccine against bird flu would have to prove willful misconduct to bring a claim for damages. Critics have said that such a high threshold would make it almost impossible for people injured by a drug to file a lawsuit.
Leavitt said it's possible that vaccine manufacturers would want the extra protections before conducting clinical trials.
"If you're a vaccine manufacturer, you're likely not going to want to move to that step unless you've got adequate liability protection." he said.
Bird flu has killed at least 88 people in Asia and Turkey since 2003, according to the World Health Organization. An additional two deaths from bird flu have been confirmed in Indonesia. Birds carrying the virus have also been detected in Italy, Greece and Nigeria.
Leavitt said there's no reason to think that H5N1 virus will stop its migration.
"At some point in time, there will be a wild bird that will be discovered (with the virus) in the United States," he said. "That in itself won't be an emergency. That is something we should expect."
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
02-13-06 1836ET
Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
http://framehosting.dowjonesnews.com/sample/samplestory.asp?StoryID=2006021323360011&Take=1
US HHS Secretary:Would Grant Liability Protection For Drug Cos
WASHINGTON (AP)--The government won't wait for bird flu to hit U.S. shores before granting liability protections to vaccine manufacturers and others that make products needed to battle a pandemic.
Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt said Monday that the administration soon would enter into contracts for bird flu vaccine, rapid tests to detect the virus, and technology that would make available vaccine go farther.
"At some point in that process, we'll need to deal with the issue of liability," he told reporters.
In December, Congress gave Leavitt the authority to grant liability waivers if a public health emergency exists.
Under the waivers, people injured by a vaccine against bird flu would have to prove willful misconduct to bring a claim for damages. Critics have said that such a high threshold would make it almost impossible for people injured by a drug to file a lawsuit.
Leavitt said it's possible that vaccine manufacturers would want the extra protections before conducting clinical trials.
"If you're a vaccine manufacturer, you're likely not going to want to move to that step unless you've got adequate liability protection." he said.
Bird flu has killed at least 88 people in Asia and Turkey since 2003, according to the World Health Organization. An additional two deaths from bird flu have been confirmed in Indonesia. Birds carrying the virus have also been detected in Italy, Greece and Nigeria.
Leavitt said there's no reason to think that H5N1 virus will stop its migration.
"At some point in time, there will be a wild bird that will be discovered (with the virus) in the United States," he said. "That in itself won't be an emergency. That is something we should expect."
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
02-13-06 1836ET
Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
http://framehosting.dowjonesnews.com/sample/samplestory.asp?StoryID=2006021323360011&Take=1
Worrier King
Inactive
Morning Star said:
No fooling, in a week and a half they'll be dispersing thru every major population/transportation center in the world on their way back to every nook and cranny of the world.
PCViking
Lutefisk Survivor
Bird flu spreads further into Europe
Three more countries say they have detected bird flu in wild swans, with Germany, Iran and Austria the latest to find the virus that has killed 91 people worldwide.
On Tuesday, Austria and Germany became the third and fourth European Union countries to report H5N1 bird flu, just three days after the bloc's first instances were confirmed by Italy and Greece.
Germany said its results came from initial tests. Both countries said samples of the dead birds had been sent to the EU's reference laboratory in Britain for confirmation.
Experts had said it was only a matter of time before the H5N1 strain dangerous to humans broke out in Iran, a wintering place for wildfowl that may be carriers. Neighbouring Iraq, Azerbaijan and Turkey had already reported outbreaks.
The highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of the virus has killed at least 91 people in Asia and the Middle East, according to the World Health Organisation.
Experts fear H5N1 may mutate into a form that can spread between people and cause a pandemic that could kill millions.
New cases of H5 bird flu were found in Romania, Europe's largest wetlands and a major migratory route for wild birds.
Tests were under way in Britain to see if the new samples were H5N1, of which Romania and neighbour Bulgaria have already had cases.
Germany said it would bring forward to 17 February a ban on keeping poultry outdoors, and Italy said police had impounded more than 80,000 chickens and 7000 eggs from farms in the south that were not respecting health norms.
Sharp drops
Across Europe and into Africa, countries have reported sharp drops in poultry sales as the number of outbreaks grows.
Hassan Mountacir, a butcher in the central market in the Moroccan capital Rabat, said: "I was buying 150 chickens every day for my stall before the flu appeared.
"Now I'm down to 10 or 20 at the most."
The virus could soon spread further into Europe as migrating birds return after wintering in Africa, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said.
Samuel Jutzi, director of the FAO's Animal Production and Health Division, told reporters in Rome: "We need to be aware that there's a real risk for Europe when the birds migrate northwards this spring."
Struggle
Health experts are trying to warn people of the dangers of the virus that is contracted through direct contact with infected birds, but are struggling in countries such as Nigeria where poultry is everywhere - on the streets and on buses.
International experts are in Nigeria to advise authorities on what preventive measures they should be taking, including closing live-poultry markets and restricting poultry movements.
Fadela Chaib, a spokesperson for the World Health Organisation, said: "Above all, it is an animal disease and if one wants to avoid there being any human cases, the virus must really be stamped out in the bird population."
No human cases have been found in Nigeria, the first African country to confirm cases of H5N1, and health officials said on Tuesday that two children suspected of having the virus probably did not have it after all.
Greece also said tests on a man suspected of having bird flu had come back negative.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/91043E9B-762E-4AC5-B649-F114A582D2A1.htm
Fuzzychick
Membership Revoked
Onebyone said:
What's up with that comment?
Worrier King
Inactive
Onebyone said:
We'll never know the truth in this lifetime, but lets just hope it doesn't go human-to-human in the next few days. Bird flu's gonna be around the globe within a few months, but if it infected Olympic attendees, it'll be everywhere overnight.
Fuzzychick
Membership Revoked
One by One, please tell me that was a comment being sarcastic.
eileen
Inactive
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/influenza/maps/
If this thing ever, God help us, passes human to human, it
won't be as "slow" as bird to bird. Check out the 1918
flu progression map. And that was 1918 - less travel, etc.
If this thing ever, God help us, passes human to human, it
won't be as "slow" as bird to bird. Check out the 1918
flu progression map. And that was 1918 - less travel, etc.
Fuzzychick said:
Have you not read the many posts through the years of Gore's statements of he thinks there needs to be population reduction. And that he said he invented the internet.
Well put the two together and you will see this would have been a great plan for Gore to have invented. We have the olympics just started in Italy then the bird flu shows up. Hundreds of thousands go back to home countries and bam a pandemic suddenly starts.
I mean nature could have taken this course but suspose the birds in all these countries slowing coming toward Italy were purposely infected then infected in Italy. The bird flu suddenly
mutates right at this time, how convient, and the pandemic starts. Not saying Gore himself planned this but there are folks in the world who would like the useless eaters gone and would love a plan like that.
Worrier King
Inactive
Onebyone said:
There is truth in that, there are some who think the optimal and most efficient population of a human resource on the planet is around 500 Million.
Uber-Globalist Ted Turner is big on this one also.
Fuzzychick
Membership Revoked
Onebyone said:Have you not read the many posts through the years of Gore's statements of he thinks there needs to be population reduction. And that he said he invented the internet.
Well put the two together and you will see this would have been a great plan for Gore to have invented. We have the olympics just started in Italy then the bird flu shows up. Hundreds of thousands go back to home countries and bam a pandemic suddenly starts.
I mean nature could have taken this course but suspose the birds in all these countries slowing coming toward Italy were purposely infected then infected in Italy. The bird flu suddenly
Not saying Gore himself planned this but there are folks in the world who would like the useless eaters gone and would love a plan like that.
Yes, I've read, but I don't see the connection. Yes convienent birdflu shows up in Italy, but I honestly believe it's nature not man involved here. Population reduction, yes, alot of articles going around about it and I can't disagree with you here regarding that issue.
Perpetuity
Inactive
Good map, Eileen. It's interesting to note the outbreaks around metro areas, and notice the amount of current metropolitan areas that wouldn't have been so large roughly seventy years ago. That's also an insane jump in the amount of deaths in October 1918.
And uh, to Al Gore, it's Byrd Flu.
And uh, to Al Gore, it's Byrd Flu.
Lilbitsnana
On TB every waking moment
early outbreaks (after the original) all follow the major railways (Indianapolis is/was called the "crossroads of America") and population centers. now, we have airports and automobiles. much faster travel than trains......................
Fuzzychick
Membership Revoked
Lilbitsnana said:early outbreaks (after the original) all follow the major railways (Indianapolis is/was called the "crossroads of America") and population centers. now, we have airports and automobiles. much faster travel than trains......................
Back in 1918 they didn't have airplanes..
Lilbitsnana
On TB every waking moment
yeah, so what took 3 - 7 days to travel then, now takes hours.
Fuzzychick
Membership Revoked
Lilbitsnana said:
Yep.
momof23goats
Deceased
NOT A GOOD THING AT ALL. This could turn out to be a doom year, indeed.
Amaryllis
Inactive
Admitting up front that I haven't been following the bird flu threads very closely, I'm of the understanding that bird flu is not transmittable from person to person. The 1918 flu obviously was person to person so how does this compare, and why would bird flu be of such concern? The people who have been infected have caught it from birds, right?
Lilbitsnana
On TB every waking moment
Amaryllis said:
the 1918 flu didn't start out h2h either. there have been a few cases of h2h with H5N1, but as it mutates it has the potential to easily become H2H.
travel during the 1918 flu was there with WWI it was carried from country to country, but it took days, weeks, months for a journey that can now be done in hours. It spread rapidly during 1918, it (H5N1) will spread like wildfire once it makes that transition to being easily passed h2h. it is making that transition now, although somewhat slowly? If it is in Italy, with the people there for the Olympics, there are that many more people who can be exposed, the more people who contract it, the more mutations, the quicker it is on its way to h2h. when those people travel home.......................you can see where it is/could go, and why the concern.
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
Amaryllis said:
Lady Amaryllis;
I'll try and answer your question - if I can:
This is from one of the most respected experts in avian flu (H5N1). And WHO as admitted to *limited* transmission, as well....
<B><font color=red><center>Transport of Effient Human Transmission of H5N1 Via S227N</font>
<A href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02110601/H5N1_S227N_Transport.html">Recombinomics Commentary</a>
February 10, 2006</center>
"They're all basically the same. Nothing new and unusual,'' Michael Perdue, a scientist with the WHO's global influenza program, said from Geneva.
"That mutation just showed up in that one patient,'' said Perdue.
Genetic analysis of the viruses showed they are closely related to a group or clade of H5N1 viruses that caused a massive die-off of wild birds at a wildlife reserve last May in western China. These Qinghai Lake viruses have been found in dead wild birds in Russia, Turkey, Romania and a number of other spots in western Asia and Eastern Europe.</b>
They are believed to be responsible for Africa's first outbreak of H5N1, in Nigeria.
The above comments concerning the close relationship between a chicken H5N1 isolate in Nigeria and earlier isolates from Qinghai Lake in China and isolates in Turkey and Croatia are of conern. On a recent NPR broadcast it was noted that a string of H5N1 isolates - Turkey, Turkey, Croatia, China, Croatia, Turkey, Croatia, China were between 99.4% and 100% homologous to the chicken isolate from Nigeria. These data leave little doubt that the H5N1 that caused outbreaks at Qinghai Lake in China, Chany Lake, Tula, Kurgen, and Askatran in Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Romania, Croatia, Bulgaria, Greece, Cyprus, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Iraq, and Nigeria is transmitted and transported by migratory birds carrying closely related H5N1.
However, the comment that the alteration in the receptor binding domain, S227N (also called S223N), described in a sequences from the index case from Turkey is limit to the one patient is clearly misleading. It is well known that isolation of H5N1 in different cell types can alter receptor binding domain sequences and isolation in chicken eggs selects for sequences with avian receptor binding domains. S227N is an alteration that favors receptors on human cells, which leads to more efficient transmission to humans. Media reports on the detection of S227N in the index case in Turkey mentioned isolation of H5N1 from Turkey using chicken eggs as well as MDCK cells (dog kidney). S227N would be selected for on MDCK cells, and selected against in chicken eggs. Thus, isolates from chicken eggs would have reduced levels of S227N.
The data from Turkey, as well as northern and southern Iraq, identified clusters of patients. The size and number of patients indicated H5N1 became more efficient at infecting humans. Prior to Turkey, there were no verified reports of the Qinghai strain infecting humans. In Turkey the human cases exploded, indicating the H5N1 had changed, and the acquisition of S227N was a clear indicator of such a change.
The clusters in northern and southern Iraq indicate that the S227N polymorphisms is transported by wild birds, and the initial reports out of Nigeria suggest it is being carried by long range migratory birds.
Statements by WHO indicating that S227N was limited to the index case require more detail. In the WHO updates on H5N1 positive cases in Turkey, more detail was glaringly absent. Disease onset dates and relations between H5N1 patients were withheld. These data demonstrated extensive human-to-human transmission.
These commissions by omission by WHO are cause for concern.
<B><center>==================</B></center>
<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>Suspected H5N1 Familial Cluster in Southern Iraq</font>
<A href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02090602/H5N1_Iraq_Cluster_South.html">Recombinomics Commentary</a>
February 9, 2006</center>
Three brothers of the Salam family, Karim (three years), Karar (six years) and Mehdi (seven years), who lived in the same house that Mohanad Radi 30 years, were allowed Wednesday in a hospital of Amara, to 365 km in the south of Baghdad, affirmed Mohammad Rikab, director of the department of the infectious disease.</b>
For its part, Sabah Mehdi, which forms part of a delegation of five doctors from Baghdad, to inform itself on the spot of the medical situation, confirmed that the three brothers had the same symptoms as those having preceded death by their cousin.
The above comments describe another familial cluster in Iraq. Mohanad Radi died on Sunday and was a pigeon trader. He appears to be the same person as described in the WHO update as a 13M who died on Sunday. Media reports indicated he was 14 and his name was Mohannad Radhi Zaouri, so there seems to be one fatality in the south, but there is a discrepancy in the age.
The three brothers appear to have developed symptoms after the cousin, suggesting human-to-human transmission. This bimodal distribution of onset dates was also seen in the H5N1 cluster in northern Iraq, as well as the larger clusters in Turkey.
Prior to the cases in Turkey, the Qinghai version of H5N1 had not been confirmed to have infected people. The polymorphism HA S227N was detected in the index case in Turkey. This polymorphism had previously been shown to increase the affinity for human receptors in the respiratory tract and increased efficiency in humans was expected.
The clusters in Turkey as well as northern and southern Iraq indicate that the S227N is being transmitted and transported by wild birds, suggesting that more cases in Iraq and neighboring countries are likely.
<B><center>=================</B></center>
<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>H5N1 Familial Cluster in Amara Iraq Expands</font>
<A href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02110604/H5N1_Iraq_Cluster_Amara.html">Recombinomics Commentary</a>
February 11, 2006</center>
The governor of Maysan province told Reuters the suspected bird flu victim was a 24-year-old pigeon seller from Amara who died on Sunday. WHO said earlier that Iraqi officials had identified the victim as a 13-year-old boy.</b>
"He was suffering from constant flu. In hospital he turned worse and began bleeding from both his mouth and nose, and then he died," said Jabbar Zahuri, 38, the dead man's uncle.
The pigeon seller, whom officials identified as Muhaned Radhi, lived in a house with five brothers and eight sisters. Health officials have taken samples from them to test for the virus.
The brother and the sister of a stockbreeder of pigeons of Amara, in the south of Iraq, deceased Sunday after having expressed symptoms of the aviary influenza, were hospitalized Friday, according to the local authorities. "Ali Radi, 10 years, Douaa Radi, 7 years, were allowed today at the hospital because they presented the symptoms of the aviary influenza", affirmed the governor of the province of Missane, Mr. Adel Mohajar Al-Maliki, in a déclarationà the press.
The above media comments describe a growing familial cluster in Amara that has a bimodal disease onset date distribution and represents more efficient human to human transmission of H5N1.
The symptoms of the index case match those of fatal cases in Turkey and northern Iraq. In addition, his pigeons were H5N1 positive. The above indicate three cousins were hospitalized on Wednesday and two siblings were hospitalized on Friday. 11 other siblings are being monitored.
These data indicate H5N1 is efficiently transmitting among family members. The circumstances surrounding the infections of the relatives are not give, but a cluster of six is cause for concern, as is the large number of siblings under observation.
Comments by WHO concerning the inability to find the S227N polymorphisms in any of the Turkey isolates other than the index case are a cause for concern. Although the Qinghai strain of H5N1 has been killing wild and domestic birds since May, there were no confirmed H5N1 human cases associated with this strain until the outbreaks in Turkey. These outbreaks included extremely large familial clusters and signaled a more efficient transmission of H5N1 to humans.
The linkage of S227N, to increased affinity of H5N1 for human receptors is quite clear, and the loss of this linkage as indicated in comments by WHO is cause for concern. The selection away from mammalian receptor bind domain determinants via selection chicken eggs is well known. More details on the “loss” of S227N, as indicated by WHO comments would be useful.
The large size of clusters in Turkey and northern and southern Iraq suggests that the S227N in H5N1 is being transported by wild birds and is functioning efficiently.
<B><center>========================</B></center>
<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>Suspected H5N1 Familial Cluster in Najaf Iraq</font>
<A href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02120602/H5N1_Najaf.html">Recombinomics Commentary</a>
February 12, 2006</center>
2/7 And in Najaf three individuals met from a single family in towards Al Abasia their death yesterday [Feb 06] the effect of doubts with their injury with influenza disease the birds and the Iraqi news agency correspondent in City of Najaf reported that three individuals, two men he exceeds their age the thirty and a woman an old they departed the life affected by a non discovered disease, after their taking before two days a food including the chickens.... [Deaths reported as pneumonia but] ...they will send samples of the deceased blood to Baghdad and hence they send to Egypt to be submitted to accurate analyses.</b>
The above translation suggests another H5N1 familial cluster has been identified in Iraq. These three fatal cases were in the city of Najaf. The victims developed a fatal pneumonia after eating chicken. Samples have been sent out for testing, but testing in Iraq and elsewhere has been problematic at a number of levels for a number of reasons. Testing for H5N1 appears to be getting less reliable, and a diagnosis based on clinical descriptions may be more useful.
The index case in Iraq was "discounted" because of an initial lack of a connection with reported H5N1 infections in birds, although the clinical signs clearly indicated H5N1. In addition, like every index cluster for every country reporting human H5N1 cases since 2005, false negatives were reported. In Turkey, not only are false negatives common, but even positives have tested negative after shipment to Weybridge.
The reliance on lab confirmation has led to delays and a very distorted database of H5N1 infected people. Obvious H5N1 infections are excluded because of lack of samples or poorly collected samples. The current WHO is useful for identifying a full set of clusters, because more have one or more members excluded by lab tests (or lack of lab tests).
The above cluster adds to a growing list of clusters linked to the Qinghai strain of H5N1. The first cluster was reported in Turkey and is easily the longest and largest cluster recorded for H5N1. This first cluster was linked to HA S227N identified in the index case.
The index case was the first confirmed human H5N1 case caused by the Qinghai strain. It seems likely that this change, which increases the affinity of HA in H5N1 for human receptors would create more efficient transmission of H5N1 to humans. This increased efficiency would generate additional clusters, as has been seen in northern and southern Iraq.
<B><center>========================</B></center>
FWIW Lady Amaryllis;
When there are family clusters, there is CAUSE to suspect that the famil members caught the virus from ech other, especially when there is a *time period* between the illnesses with-in that family.
Amaryllis
Inactive
Thanks Lilbitsnana.
How does bird flu differ from any other flu effecting humans?
I'm not sure what the mortality rate is for humans. Is it possible that the fatalities so far have been due partly to these persons being in somewhat bad health anyway? In most third world countries the average life expectancy is a lot lower than ours due to poor living conditions and poor quality healthcare etc.
IOW, maybe bird flu wouldn't be as devastating to us as it is in other less developed coutries.
What are your thoughts on this?
How does bird flu differ from any other flu effecting humans?
I'm not sure what the mortality rate is for humans. Is it possible that the fatalities so far have been due partly to these persons being in somewhat bad health anyway? In most third world countries the average life expectancy is a lot lower than ours due to poor living conditions and poor quality healthcare etc.
IOW, maybe bird flu wouldn't be as devastating to us as it is in other less developed coutries.
What are your thoughts on this?
A...no, it kills the young and healthy with a "cytokine storm"..a massive response from the immune system that leads to respiratory failure.
Can somebody find that link by aintitfunny about the herb that reduces the cytokine reaction?
Also do a search under Sambucol and bird flu and GET SOME NOW!
Can somebody find that link by aintitfunny about the herb that reduces the cytokine reaction?
Also do a search under Sambucol and bird flu and GET SOME NOW!
Lilbitsnana
On TB every waking moment
Amaryllis said:
well, that is where Dutch, and CC (if she still posted here), and even Claudia would be the more knowledgable sources.
I don't know what the mortality rate is, but it was pretty high for awhile. It has been striking young people as well, and I don't think it is all due to health standards or living conditions (other than few Americans have chickens living in there homes). I don't know how devestating it will be here, guess that depends how how many and what mutations it makes. I believe that the 1918 flu killed more young adults and middle age adults than the elderly or very young kids, and that it a very big probability with this, since they have talked about similarities between H5N1 and the 1918 flu.
Now, if some of our resident experts would like to step in with a short, condensed version of this..................your help would be appreciated.
edit to add: thanks lynnie, you posted while I was still typing.
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
Lilbitsnana said:
Lady Lilitsnana;
As of the last time an estimate of fatalities passed my eyes (and attention) earlier today. The fatality rate was at 66% - not good! Not good at all....
Lilbitsnana
On TB every waking moment
The Flying Dutchman said:
nope, not good. I had hoped that it had dropped lower than that. I must confess, that sometimes I have to scan the articles quickly (so never saw a recent fatality rate), and I missed several weeks worth of being able to be on tb2k, so missed a lot of info.
thanks for the info (I think
)
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
lynnie said:
FWIW Lady Lynnie;
The over the counter med. Cold-Eeze helps ease the symptoms of flu (and H5N1). Which literally means that the meds will give a person's body time - time to fight the H5N1 virus...
Equate has an equivelant to Cold-Eeze and at about half the price..
My lady and I were force to *test it - the Equate version of Cold-Eeze. On California A..
A friend of ours caught the Cal. A; and after spending a week in the hospital, she came to stay with us for awhile (she was still contagious - though her "quacks" had told us she wasn't).
Our friend had a relaspe and went back to the hospital for another 5 days..
Our using the Equate at the first symptoms of illness - shortened our bout with Califonia A down to three days of just mysery! And not the life threatening California A to Penumonia that our friend expericenced....
Amaryllis
Inactive
Thanks for the info Flying Dutchman.
Since antibiotics would be of no use with a virus, your body would just about have to fight it off by itself. Add Cold-Eeze to the never ending list of preps.
I wasn't really taking the bird flu threat very seriously until I started reading the threads of it spreading so quickly across Europe. Very scary. Only a 34% chance you'd survive it, even scarier.
Since antibiotics would be of no use with a virus, your body would just about have to fight it off by itself. Add Cold-Eeze to the never ending list of preps.
I wasn't really taking the bird flu threat very seriously until I started reading the threads of it spreading so quickly across Europe. Very scary. Only a 34% chance you'd survive it, even scarier.
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
=
<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Deadly bird flu spreads</font>
Tue Feb 14, 2006 10:37 PM GMT
By Karin Strohecker
<A href="http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyid=2006-02-14T223541Z_01_L14101227_RTRUKOC_0_UK-BIRDFLU.xml">today.reuters.co.uk</a></center>
BERLIN (Reuters) - Three more countries said on Tuesday they had detected cases of deadly bird flu in wild swans, with Germany, Iran and Austria the latest to find the virus that has killed 91 people worldwide.
Austria and Germany became the third and fourth European Union countries to report H5N1 bird flu, just three days after the bloc's first instances were confirmed by Italy and Greece.</b>
Germany said its results came from initial tests. Both countries said samples of the dead birds had been sent to the EU's reference laboratory in Britain for confirmation.
Experts had said it was only a matter of time before the H5N1 strain dangerous to humans broke out in Iran, a wintering place for wildfowl that may be carriers. Neighbouring Iraq, Azerbaijan and Turkey had already reported outbreaks.
The highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of the virus has killed at least 91 people in Asia and the Middle East, according to the World Health Organisation.
Experts fear H5N1 may mutate into a form that can spread between people and cause a pandemic that could kill millions.
New cases of H5 bird flu were found in Romania, Europe's largest wetlands and a major migratory route for wild birds.
Tests were under way in Britain to see if the new samples were H5N1, of which Romania and neighbour Bulgaria have already had cases.
Germany said it would bring forward to February 17 a ban on keeping poultry outdoors, and Italy said police had impounded more than 80,000 chickens and 7,000 eggs from farms in the south that were not respecting health norms.
SALES HIT
Across Europe and into Africa, countries have reported sharp drops in poultry sales as the number of outbreaks grows.
"I was buying 150 chickens every day for my stall before the flu appeared," said Hassan Mountacir, a butcher in the central market in the Moroccan capital Rabat. "Now I'm down to 10 or 20 at the most."
The virus could soon spread further into Europe as migrating birds return after wintering in Africa, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said.
"We need to be aware that there's a real risk for Europe when the birds migrate northwards this spring," Samuel Jutzi, director of the FAO's Animal Production and Health Division, told reporters in Rome.
Health experts are trying to warn people of the dangers of the virus that is contracted through direct contact with infected birds, but are struggling in countries such as Nigeria where poultry is everywhere -- on the streets and on buses.
International experts are in Nigeria to advise authorities on what preventive measures they should be taking, including closing live-poultry markets and restricting poultry movements.
"Above all it is an animal disease and if one wants to avoid there being any human cases, the virus must really be stamped out in the bird population," World Health Organisation spokeswoman Fadela Chaib told reporters in Geneva.
No human cases have been found in Nigeria, the first African country to confirm cases of H5N1, and health officials said on Tuesday that two children suspected of having the virus probably did not have it after all.
Greece also said tests on a man suspected of having bird flu had come back negative.
<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>Deadly bird flu spreads</font>
Tue Feb 14, 2006 10:37 PM GMT
By Karin Strohecker
<A href="http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyid=2006-02-14T223541Z_01_L14101227_RTRUKOC_0_UK-BIRDFLU.xml">today.reuters.co.uk</a></center>
BERLIN (Reuters) - Three more countries said on Tuesday they had detected cases of deadly bird flu in wild swans, with Germany, Iran and Austria the latest to find the virus that has killed 91 people worldwide.
Austria and Germany became the third and fourth European Union countries to report H5N1 bird flu, just three days after the bloc's first instances were confirmed by Italy and Greece.</b>
Germany said its results came from initial tests. Both countries said samples of the dead birds had been sent to the EU's reference laboratory in Britain for confirmation.
Experts had said it was only a matter of time before the H5N1 strain dangerous to humans broke out in Iran, a wintering place for wildfowl that may be carriers. Neighbouring Iraq, Azerbaijan and Turkey had already reported outbreaks.
The highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of the virus has killed at least 91 people in Asia and the Middle East, according to the World Health Organisation.
Experts fear H5N1 may mutate into a form that can spread between people and cause a pandemic that could kill millions.
New cases of H5 bird flu were found in Romania, Europe's largest wetlands and a major migratory route for wild birds.
Tests were under way in Britain to see if the new samples were H5N1, of which Romania and neighbour Bulgaria have already had cases.
Germany said it would bring forward to February 17 a ban on keeping poultry outdoors, and Italy said police had impounded more than 80,000 chickens and 7,000 eggs from farms in the south that were not respecting health norms.
SALES HIT
Across Europe and into Africa, countries have reported sharp drops in poultry sales as the number of outbreaks grows.
"I was buying 150 chickens every day for my stall before the flu appeared," said Hassan Mountacir, a butcher in the central market in the Moroccan capital Rabat. "Now I'm down to 10 or 20 at the most."
The virus could soon spread further into Europe as migrating birds return after wintering in Africa, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said.
"We need to be aware that there's a real risk for Europe when the birds migrate northwards this spring," Samuel Jutzi, director of the FAO's Animal Production and Health Division, told reporters in Rome.
Health experts are trying to warn people of the dangers of the virus that is contracted through direct contact with infected birds, but are struggling in countries such as Nigeria where poultry is everywhere -- on the streets and on buses.
International experts are in Nigeria to advise authorities on what preventive measures they should be taking, including closing live-poultry markets and restricting poultry movements.
"Above all it is an animal disease and if one wants to avoid there being any human cases, the virus must really be stamped out in the bird population," World Health Organisation spokeswoman Fadela Chaib told reporters in Geneva.
No human cases have been found in Nigeria, the first African country to confirm cases of H5N1, and health officials said on Tuesday that two children suspected of having the virus probably did not have it after all.
Greece also said tests on a man suspected of having bird flu had come back negative.
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
=
<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Disinfectants Help Protect Against Bird Flu</font>
February 14 2006
<A href="http://www.cleanlink.com/news/article2.asp?id=4035">www.cleanlink.com</a></center>
According to reports from the International Sanitary Supply Association, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced information about disinfectants that can help prevent the spread of the avian influenza in the United States.
Avian Influenza A — or "bird flu" — is an infection caused by influenza (flu) viruses that are found chiefly in birds.</b>
The risk of contracting avian influenza is generally low in people because the viruses do not usually infect humans. However, a new study suggests that there is an association between direct contact with dead or sick poultry and the flu-like illness in humans and that the transmission is probably more common than expected.
“There is a possible risk to people who have direct or close contact with infected birds or with surfaces that have been contaminated with secretions and excretions from infected birds," according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Currently, more than 90 disinfectant products are registered and labeled for use to help protect against avian influenza A viruses on hard, nonporous surfaces. These products are typically used by the poultry industry to disinfect facilities such as veterinary premises, poultry houses, farm premises and equipment, and other institutional and industrial settings.
Although there are no antimicrobial products registered specifically to fight against subtypes of the avian A influenza, such as H5N1, the EPA believes that the currently registered avian influenza A-fighting products will be effective against H5N1 and other strains.
<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Disinfectants Help Protect Against Bird Flu</font>
February 14 2006
<A href="http://www.cleanlink.com/news/article2.asp?id=4035">www.cleanlink.com</a></center>
According to reports from the International Sanitary Supply Association, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced information about disinfectants that can help prevent the spread of the avian influenza in the United States.
Avian Influenza A — or "bird flu" — is an infection caused by influenza (flu) viruses that are found chiefly in birds.</b>
The risk of contracting avian influenza is generally low in people because the viruses do not usually infect humans. However, a new study suggests that there is an association between direct contact with dead or sick poultry and the flu-like illness in humans and that the transmission is probably more common than expected.
“There is a possible risk to people who have direct or close contact with infected birds or with surfaces that have been contaminated with secretions and excretions from infected birds," according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Currently, more than 90 disinfectant products are registered and labeled for use to help protect against avian influenza A viruses on hard, nonporous surfaces. These products are typically used by the poultry industry to disinfect facilities such as veterinary premises, poultry houses, farm premises and equipment, and other institutional and industrial settings.
Although there are no antimicrobial products registered specifically to fight against subtypes of the avian A influenza, such as H5N1, the EPA believes that the currently registered avian influenza A-fighting products will be effective against H5N1 and other strains.
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
=
<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>World Health Organization Warns Of Europe-Wide Bird-Flu Outbreak </font>
<A href="http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/02/8bfb1609-ab47-4059-b83a-052698cede89.html">www.rferl.org</a></center>
14 February 2006 -- A senior UN Food and Agricultural Organization official says Europe faces a genuine risk of a bird-flu outbreak among poultry this spring.
The assessment was made by the director of the animal production and health division of the FAO, Samuel Jutzi, who held a news conference in Rome today.
"We need to be aware that there is a true risk for Europe. The wild birds are starting to migrate north, and if indeed the virus is entrenched, as it seems to be in Africa, then there is a real risk for this to come to Europe and threaten the poultry industry in Europe," he said.</b>
Jutzi said the virus seems to be circulating widely in Nigeria, and there is a risk that the virus will reach Europe in the spring when birds migrate north.
Health authorities in Austria said today the virus was already found in two dead swans, the country's first confirmed cases of the deadly H5N1 strain.
In Germany, preliminary results have shown that two dead swans tested positive for H5N1 on the Baltic Sea island of Ruegen.
The H5N1 strain has proved fatal in humans in close contact with infected birds.
In the past few days, the H5N1 strain has been confirmed among wild birds in Greece, Italy, and Bulgaria. Russia, Romania, and Turkey have already announced the presence of H5N1 on their territories. Slovenia is awaiting word on whether a wild swan there died of the strain.
(compiled from agency reports)
<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>World Health Organization Warns Of Europe-Wide Bird-Flu Outbreak </font>
<A href="http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/02/8bfb1609-ab47-4059-b83a-052698cede89.html">www.rferl.org</a></center>
14 February 2006 -- A senior UN Food and Agricultural Organization official says Europe faces a genuine risk of a bird-flu outbreak among poultry this spring.
The assessment was made by the director of the animal production and health division of the FAO, Samuel Jutzi, who held a news conference in Rome today.
"We need to be aware that there is a true risk for Europe. The wild birds are starting to migrate north, and if indeed the virus is entrenched, as it seems to be in Africa, then there is a real risk for this to come to Europe and threaten the poultry industry in Europe," he said.</b>
Jutzi said the virus seems to be circulating widely in Nigeria, and there is a risk that the virus will reach Europe in the spring when birds migrate north.
Health authorities in Austria said today the virus was already found in two dead swans, the country's first confirmed cases of the deadly H5N1 strain.
In Germany, preliminary results have shown that two dead swans tested positive for H5N1 on the Baltic Sea island of Ruegen.
The H5N1 strain has proved fatal in humans in close contact with infected birds.
In the past few days, the H5N1 strain has been confirmed among wild birds in Greece, Italy, and Bulgaria. Russia, Romania, and Turkey have already announced the presence of H5N1 on their territories. Slovenia is awaiting word on whether a wild swan there died of the strain.
(compiled from agency reports)
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
=
<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Bird flu warning</font>
February 14 2006
<A href="http://www.barnsleytoday.co.uk/ViewArticle2.aspx?sectionid=86&articleid=1350352">www.barnsleytoday.co.uk</a></center>
A QUARTER of doctors and nurses in Barnsley are expected to fall ill, throwing Barnsley's health service into chaos, if a bird flu pandemic sweeps the borough, health chiefs have warned.
At the same time more than 11,000 extra patients would be likely to call on GPs for an appointment - most of them home visits - during the expected eight-week course of any outbreak.</b>
Now Barnsley Primary Care Trust has published its plan for coping with the disease in the wake of concern over the lethal H5N1 flu strain which has spread to Europe from its original hotspot in south-east Asia.
A report backed by Paul Redgrave, the borough's director of public health and 'flu co-ordinator', outlines strict infection control methods including gloves, aprons and face masks to be worn by all health care workers in close contact with patients.
Barnsley Hospital is expected to be working at maximum capacity for a long period, with a predicted 355 extra admissions, and extra mortuary space would be prepared to cope with a predicted 230 deaths from flu.
Social Services would also be on high alert to help care for vulnerable people left without essential care if their health worker falls ill.
The report states family, friends and neighbours would be asked to pitch in as informal carers in the event of a shortage of workers. And recently-retired and part-time staff could be asked to return full-time.
In the community, school closures would be expected and up to a quarter of all public sector workers would be likely to be off work for up to eight days.
Dr Redgrave said: "The virus has not acquired the ability to pass easily from person to person. Should it be able to H5N1 would be meet all the criteria of a pandemic flu strain.
"An influenza pandemic will cause widespread social and economic disruption. Emergency planning is an ongoing process. A considerable amount of work is still required, particularly related to anti-viral distribution and continuity in Primary Care."
Dr Kevin Perret, Barnsley's consultant in communicable diseases, said it was inevitable a new strain would strike at some point.
He added: "A pandemic is not likely soon, but it is inevitable and it will have major consequences. Life will go on but it would be very disruptive. We will all have to work together.
"All public institutions have contingency plans for dealing with a crisis, including coping with high levels of staff absence."
14 February 2006
<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Bird flu warning</font>
February 14 2006
<A href="http://www.barnsleytoday.co.uk/ViewArticle2.aspx?sectionid=86&articleid=1350352">www.barnsleytoday.co.uk</a></center>
A QUARTER of doctors and nurses in Barnsley are expected to fall ill, throwing Barnsley's health service into chaos, if a bird flu pandemic sweeps the borough, health chiefs have warned.
At the same time more than 11,000 extra patients would be likely to call on GPs for an appointment - most of them home visits - during the expected eight-week course of any outbreak.</b>
Now Barnsley Primary Care Trust has published its plan for coping with the disease in the wake of concern over the lethal H5N1 flu strain which has spread to Europe from its original hotspot in south-east Asia.
A report backed by Paul Redgrave, the borough's director of public health and 'flu co-ordinator', outlines strict infection control methods including gloves, aprons and face masks to be worn by all health care workers in close contact with patients.
Barnsley Hospital is expected to be working at maximum capacity for a long period, with a predicted 355 extra admissions, and extra mortuary space would be prepared to cope with a predicted 230 deaths from flu.
Social Services would also be on high alert to help care for vulnerable people left without essential care if their health worker falls ill.
The report states family, friends and neighbours would be asked to pitch in as informal carers in the event of a shortage of workers. And recently-retired and part-time staff could be asked to return full-time.
In the community, school closures would be expected and up to a quarter of all public sector workers would be likely to be off work for up to eight days.
Dr Redgrave said: "The virus has not acquired the ability to pass easily from person to person. Should it be able to H5N1 would be meet all the criteria of a pandemic flu strain.
"An influenza pandemic will cause widespread social and economic disruption. Emergency planning is an ongoing process. A considerable amount of work is still required, particularly related to anti-viral distribution and continuity in Primary Care."
Dr Kevin Perret, Barnsley's consultant in communicable diseases, said it was inevitable a new strain would strike at some point.
He added: "A pandemic is not likely soon, but it is inevitable and it will have major consequences. Life will go on but it would be very disruptive. We will all have to work together.
"All public institutions have contingency plans for dealing with a crisis, including coping with high levels of staff absence."
14 February 2006
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
=
<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>US companies must ready for flu pandemic: Leavitt</font>
Tue Feb 14, 2006 2:59 PM ET
By Andrew Stern
<A href="http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=healthNews&storyID=2006-02-14T195859Z_01_N143763_RTRUKOC_0_US-BIRDFLU-USA-GOVERNMENT.xml&archived=False">today.reuters.com</a></center>
MINNEAPOLIS (Reuters) - U.S. companies must pitch in to help prepare for what scientists believe could be a devastating influenza pandemic, Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt said on Tuesday.
Leavitt repeated the message he has been hammering home to states -- they can expect little help from the federal government and need to get their emergency plans in order.</b>
"Avian flu, when it occurs, will severely test the best-laid plans ... and many companies are not making any plans at all," Leavitt told a conference on business preparedness for the anticipated bird flu pandemic.
H5N1 avian influenza has spread among flocks across Asia and into Europe. It has been found in Italy, Slovenia and Nigeria.
While it has infected just 168 people, killing 90 of them, experts fear the virus will mutate just enough to allow it to pass easily from person to person. If it does so, it could cause a catastrophic pandemic.
The U.S. Congress has approved $3.6 billion in funding out of $7.1 billion requested by President George W. Bush to prepare for a pandemic that some scientists estimate could kill more than 300 million people globally.
An organizer of the conference, public health expert Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota, outlined scenarios where corpses will pile up and vital global supply lines will disintegrate as the pandemic takes hold and up to 60 percent of the world's population becomes infected.
Still, 98 out of 100 people will likely survive, and that must be prepared for too, he said.
Hospital beds, ventilators, and surgical masks and gloves will run out almost immediately, Osterholm said.
Leavitt read a scenario in which every porch had a casket, there was no work and men were kept busy digging graves.
"This is not a Stephen King novel I am reading from," Leavitt said. He was reading from a Kentucky coal miner's account of the catastrophic consequences of the 1918 influenza pandemic that killed between 20 million and 100 million people worldwide.
<B><center>'OVERDUE AND ILL-PREPARED'</b></center>
"We are overdue, and ill-prepared. Local communities are going to have to take the lead," Leavitt said. "Those expecting the federal government to ride in and come to their rescue are going to be sorely disappointed."
Government itself is ill-prepared for its workers as well, said a senior analyst from Congress' investigative arm, the Government Accountability Office.
"I don't think anybody is up to speed yet," said Judith Kordahl, who is attending the two-day conference. The GAO is doing research for several reports on the topic of bird flu preparedness.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency, which was criticized for its belated response to the devastation wrought by Hurricane Katrina, was just getting around to offering advice to companies on how to keep operating during a pandemic, Kordahl said.
Most disaster preparedness planning is designed to inform workers about what to do if something were to happen to one's office building should a local disaster hit, such as a localized natural disaster or an explosion of a "dirty bomb" that spreads nuclear contamination, several attendees said.
Without an immediate vaccine, or enough medications to fight the infection that can overwhelm the lungs, many workers will merely be told to work from home and to avoid contact with others, they said.
Leavitt said checklists for businesses and families are being prepared to reveal weaknesses and enhance planning, but acknowledged it was difficult to get people to act before the actual crisis hits.
"Let's acknowledge that anything we say before a pandemic occurs feels like an exaggeration, feels alarmist. But anything said afterward, it shows a lack of preparation," Leavitt said.
"Is this Y2K all over again? Is this crying wolf? This (pandemic) will happen with certainty. We don't know if H5N1 is the spark ... in 1918 they had no idea what was coming."
<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>US companies must ready for flu pandemic: Leavitt</font>
Tue Feb 14, 2006 2:59 PM ET
By Andrew Stern
<A href="http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=healthNews&storyID=2006-02-14T195859Z_01_N143763_RTRUKOC_0_US-BIRDFLU-USA-GOVERNMENT.xml&archived=False">today.reuters.com</a></center>
MINNEAPOLIS (Reuters) - U.S. companies must pitch in to help prepare for what scientists believe could be a devastating influenza pandemic, Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt said on Tuesday.
Leavitt repeated the message he has been hammering home to states -- they can expect little help from the federal government and need to get their emergency plans in order.</b>
"Avian flu, when it occurs, will severely test the best-laid plans ... and many companies are not making any plans at all," Leavitt told a conference on business preparedness for the anticipated bird flu pandemic.
H5N1 avian influenza has spread among flocks across Asia and into Europe. It has been found in Italy, Slovenia and Nigeria.
While it has infected just 168 people, killing 90 of them, experts fear the virus will mutate just enough to allow it to pass easily from person to person. If it does so, it could cause a catastrophic pandemic.
The U.S. Congress has approved $3.6 billion in funding out of $7.1 billion requested by President George W. Bush to prepare for a pandemic that some scientists estimate could kill more than 300 million people globally.
An organizer of the conference, public health expert Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota, outlined scenarios where corpses will pile up and vital global supply lines will disintegrate as the pandemic takes hold and up to 60 percent of the world's population becomes infected.
Still, 98 out of 100 people will likely survive, and that must be prepared for too, he said.
Hospital beds, ventilators, and surgical masks and gloves will run out almost immediately, Osterholm said.
Leavitt read a scenario in which every porch had a casket, there was no work and men were kept busy digging graves.
"This is not a Stephen King novel I am reading from," Leavitt said. He was reading from a Kentucky coal miner's account of the catastrophic consequences of the 1918 influenza pandemic that killed between 20 million and 100 million people worldwide.
<B><center>'OVERDUE AND ILL-PREPARED'</b></center>
"We are overdue, and ill-prepared. Local communities are going to have to take the lead," Leavitt said. "Those expecting the federal government to ride in and come to their rescue are going to be sorely disappointed."
Government itself is ill-prepared for its workers as well, said a senior analyst from Congress' investigative arm, the Government Accountability Office.
"I don't think anybody is up to speed yet," said Judith Kordahl, who is attending the two-day conference. The GAO is doing research for several reports on the topic of bird flu preparedness.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency, which was criticized for its belated response to the devastation wrought by Hurricane Katrina, was just getting around to offering advice to companies on how to keep operating during a pandemic, Kordahl said.
Most disaster preparedness planning is designed to inform workers about what to do if something were to happen to one's office building should a local disaster hit, such as a localized natural disaster or an explosion of a "dirty bomb" that spreads nuclear contamination, several attendees said.
Without an immediate vaccine, or enough medications to fight the infection that can overwhelm the lungs, many workers will merely be told to work from home and to avoid contact with others, they said.
Leavitt said checklists for businesses and families are being prepared to reveal weaknesses and enhance planning, but acknowledged it was difficult to get people to act before the actual crisis hits.
"Let's acknowledge that anything we say before a pandemic occurs feels like an exaggeration, feels alarmist. But anything said afterward, it shows a lack of preparation," Leavitt said.
"Is this Y2K all over again? Is this crying wolf? This (pandemic) will happen with certainty. We don't know if H5N1 is the spark ... in 1918 they had no idea what was coming."
Business leaders urged to plan for severe flu pandemic
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/biz-plan/news/feb1406summit.html
Robert Roos News Editor
Feb 14, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – Speakers at a national conference in Minneapolis today sought to impress business leaders with the potentially disastrous effects of an influenza pandemic without scaring them into thinking that preparing for one is futile.
The meeting brought predictions that a major pandemic would put the world economy into reverse and could kill more people than the pandemic of 1918, in which an estimated 50 million to 100 million died. But speakers also said that even in such a disaster, 98% of people would survive, and preparation for "foreseeable risks" will help businesses weather the storm with less damage and legal liability.
"We can't hope our way out of this, and we can't just sit and say, 'Woe is me.' Comprehensive and serious planning is not optional," said Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, publisher of the CIDRAP Web site.
About 300 people, mostly business officials, are attending the 2-day meeting, called Business Planning for Pandemic Influenza: A National Summit, at the Minneapolis Convention Center. The meeting is sponsored by CIDRAP and the US and Minnesota Chambers of Commerce.
In opening the session, US Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt said the Hurricane Katrina disaster taught the lesson that "the unthinkable happens, and we need to be thinking about the unthinkable."
Leavitt sounded themes that he has used repeatedly in state meetings on pandemic preparedness around the country, warning that every business, government agency, community, school, organization, and household should develop and test a pandemic preparedness plan.
He recounted watching figure skater Sarah Hughes turn in the performance of her life in the 2002 Winter Olympic games in Salt Lake City, when he was governor of Utah, and said that the pandemic threat should elicit a comparable preparedness effort. "We as a public health community and as a business community need to skate the performance of our lives," he said.
Parallels between 1918 virus and H5N1
Osterholm sought to background the audience on the science of pandemics in an hour-long talk he called "Influenza 101." A major theme was that recent research has uncovered chilling similarities between the H5N1 avian influenza virus now circulating in Asia and the H1N1 flu virus that took the world by storm in 1918.
Researchers recently have concluded that the 1918 virus jumped directly from birds to humans, which bears comparison with the way the H5N1 avian virus is infecting some humans, though it has not spread from person to person. Further, certain mutations seen in the 1918 virus have also been found in H5N1 viruses, Osterholm said.
"I can't come to any other conclusion than that H5N1 and the 1918 H1N1 [viruses] are kissing cousins of the highest order," he said.
He warned that modern medicine won't offer a great deal of protection in the first several months of a pandemic flu, if ever. Given the time it takes to develop and produce a vaccine for a new flu strain, "Don't count on a vaccine to get us out of this, at least in the first stage," he said.
The flu drug oseltamivir (Tamiflu) also has its limitations, he said. "The way we use Tamiflu now may not work for H5N1—it's likely to be needed at a much higher dosage for a much longer time period."
Major economic impact predicted
Economic strategist Dr. Sherry Cooper painted a gloomy picture of the potential economic effects of a pandemic on today's densely interwoven world.
Cooper, executive vice president of BMO Financial Group in Toronto, said the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) outbreak in Toronto hinted at the possible impact of a pandemic. The virus infected only 252 people and caused 44 deaths in the city, but that was enough to trigger the quarantine of 15,000 people. Hospitals filled up and had to stop all nonessential services, while the World Health Organization warned against traveling to Toronto, causing tourism to collapse.
Cooper spoke of the "blurring" of national economic boundaries in a world of multinational corporations, global travel, and international supply chains focused on "just-in-time" delivery of parts and products.
"All of us now depend on imported products, and all of that depends on the free movement of people and goods across national borders," Cooper said. Travel now accounts for 10% of the world's gross economic activity and 8% of jobs, she added.
In such a world, a severe pandemic would mean a sharp economic downturn, Cooper said. "It is our rough estimate that . . . the global economy would lose roughly six percentage points worth of growth in a 3-month period. It would mean the economy would decline at a 2% annual rate." The US economy would take a $670 billion hit, she estimated.
Among the "immediate losers" in a pandemic would be tourism, transportation, the hospitality industry, life and health insurers, and the entertainment industry, Cooper said.
She advised businesses to expect absenteeism rates of about 30% at the peak of a pandemic, along with "months of slowdown."
Utility service could be disrupted. "Imagine no waste management, no clean water, no electricity—not just for a couple of days, but perhaps for weeks," she said. Fuel shortages, consumer hoarding of things like bottled water, shortages of medical supplies, and other difficulties would make matters worse.
The good news in all this gloom is that "98% of the population will survive," Cooper said. "It's not the end of the world."
"Planning will lead to a much calmer environment," she concluded. "Let's hope these plans won't be put to use any time soon."
Careful risk assessment urged
Attorney Cheryl Falvey advised business leaders to carefully assess the risks a flu pandemic would pose and then take documented steps to limit them. Falvey is a partner with Akin Gump Strauss Hauer and Field LLP in Washington, DC.
She said the pandemic threat poses a dilemma for preparedness advocates in business. "Pre-pandemic we can sound alarmist, yet post-pandemic we can look as if we didn't do enough," she said.
The foreseeable consequences of a pandemic, she said, include economic losses, supply-chain disruptions, employee absenteeism, quarantines and travel restrictions, an increase in demand for health care, and a decline in tourism.
Falvey invited business people to imagine what kind of lawsuit they could face in the aftermath of a pandemic.
"You need to develop a record to show that management has met its obligations to its various constituencies," such as customers, employees, shareholders, subsidiaries, and the community, she said.
Most juries in liability suits understand that accidents happen and human errors occur, Falvey said. "What juries don't forgive is a failure to assess, a failure to act, to commit money and resources to deal with a problem," and to involve top management in that effort, she said.
"Jurors want to know that there was an adequate planning process and that all possibilities were considered, and they were balanced," she said.
For example, Falvey said she represented a refinery operator in Belize that worked for years to prevent an explosion. The company had a computerized alarm system, and officials worked with neighborhood groups and local doctors to prepare them to respond.
Despite the precautions, the feared explosion finally occurred—and the computerized alarm system failed in the event, she said.
When the company landed in court, Falvey reported, "What happened was that the jurors respected the process of planning and due diligence. . . . They didn't penalize the company for a failed alarm system, because there was a documented record of monthly tests. That kind of evidence of planning and proactive efforts at mitigation and relief helps limit your liability."
Echoing a point made by Cooper, Falvey urged businesses to make sure they have sick leave and medical policies that don't discourage workers from staying home when sick.
She also advised the audience to educate their employees on pandemic-related risks and on company policies.
"I think it comes down to the concepts in the law of foreseeability and reasonable response to foreseeable risks," she concluded.
In a question period later, Falvey was asked how aware the business world is about the pandemic threat. "I don't think everyone is getting it, but companies that provide pandemic-related products and services are," she said. "There's lots of movement at the highest levels in America to plan for this."
Osterholm was asked if he would advise people to stockpile oseltamivir. In reply, he admitted that he has stockpiled some himself, as have colleagues who have been known to counsel the opposite. But he also said it's essential to make sure there are adequate supplies of antivirals and other medical products for healthcare workers and first responders.
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
=
<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>State plan tells residents how to prepare for flu pandemic </font>
February 15 2006
By Arthur H. Rotstein
The Associated Press
<A href="http://www.azcapitoltimes.com/main.asp?SectionID=2&SubSectionID=2&ArticleID=3037">azcapitoltimes.com</a></center>
Arizona state health officials have released a revised flu pandemic readiness plan that calls on families and businesses to prepare and for hospitals to test plans for dealing with overwhelming numbers of patients.
The plan released Feb. 6 recommends that families stockpile food, water and medications to be self-sufficient at home for a period of time during an emergency, with the ability to communicate with family elsewhere. </b>
It also offers a business checklist, ranging from identifying essential workers needed to keep operating during a pandemic to planning for impacts on employees and customers, including absences, and encouraging flu shots.
And it outlines six levels of operations for hospitals in dealing with overwhelming numbers of patients.
The plan discusses a broad series of steps from triage to identify pandemic victims and separate them from others to added security, mortuary issues and providing non-hospital care.
This revision of a state plan drawn up in 2000 is “a significant advancement forward,” said state epidemiologist David Engelthaler. “It includes all the existing plans and systems that have been developed for emergency response and brings them together in how we would use those capabilities during a pandemic.”
The plan spans a wide range of actions, from a prepandemic alert to systems that are needed for identifying cases in Arizona, laboratory tests to determine whether a pandemic is starting and monitoring travelers.
It discusses potential uses of stockpiles of antiviral medications — should any be developed.
A flu pandemic is a worldwide outbreak of influenza from a new virus distinct from past ones and capable of infecting large numbers of people because they lack natural immunity from the new virus.
Three influenza pandemics occurred in the last century. The deadliest ever recorded killed some 50 million people worldwide, including about 650,000 in the United States, during 1918-1919.
Health officials in this country and abroad have been concerned about the potential for such an outbreak to evolve from a virulent bird flu strain that originated in Southeast Asia.
Officials: Pandemic inevitable
United Nations officials have said a worldwide pandemic is inevitable, but Arizona officials cautioned that they are not saying one would occur this year or next.
The new Arizona plan “follows the federal as well as the World Health Organization model system in terms of how to devise roles and responsibilities as well as when we would put the system in place,” Mr. Engelthaler said. “It’s kind of a top-to-bottom approach.”
The plan, he said, is the equivalent of an antithesis of what happened in the case of Hurricane Katrina. “We really see that there are two sides to preparedness,” he said, “government and community. Obviously, both failed in Katrina. Here in Arizona we have to make sure that both sides are prepared.”
“It’s just the overall significance of the impact of such a large-scale emergency… We can’t be stuck in the old Katrina model where we’re not prepared,” Mr. Engelthaler said.
Mr. Engelthaler said preparedness at the local and community levels, within families, businesses and schools, is vital.
Everyday precautions count, from frequent hand-washing, covering the mouth when coughing and annual flu shots, to staying home from work or school when sick and telecommuting or working from home if needed, he said.
“Certainly we know we’ve got a lot more to do, but this marks a significant advancement forward for preparedness in Arizona,” Mr. Engelthaler said.
<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>State plan tells residents how to prepare for flu pandemic </font>
February 15 2006
By Arthur H. Rotstein
The Associated Press
<A href="http://www.azcapitoltimes.com/main.asp?SectionID=2&SubSectionID=2&ArticleID=3037">azcapitoltimes.com</a></center>
Arizona state health officials have released a revised flu pandemic readiness plan that calls on families and businesses to prepare and for hospitals to test plans for dealing with overwhelming numbers of patients.
The plan released Feb. 6 recommends that families stockpile food, water and medications to be self-sufficient at home for a period of time during an emergency, with the ability to communicate with family elsewhere. </b>
It also offers a business checklist, ranging from identifying essential workers needed to keep operating during a pandemic to planning for impacts on employees and customers, including absences, and encouraging flu shots.
And it outlines six levels of operations for hospitals in dealing with overwhelming numbers of patients.
The plan discusses a broad series of steps from triage to identify pandemic victims and separate them from others to added security, mortuary issues and providing non-hospital care.
This revision of a state plan drawn up in 2000 is “a significant advancement forward,” said state epidemiologist David Engelthaler. “It includes all the existing plans and systems that have been developed for emergency response and brings them together in how we would use those capabilities during a pandemic.”
The plan spans a wide range of actions, from a prepandemic alert to systems that are needed for identifying cases in Arizona, laboratory tests to determine whether a pandemic is starting and monitoring travelers.
It discusses potential uses of stockpiles of antiviral medications — should any be developed.
A flu pandemic is a worldwide outbreak of influenza from a new virus distinct from past ones and capable of infecting large numbers of people because they lack natural immunity from the new virus.
Three influenza pandemics occurred in the last century. The deadliest ever recorded killed some 50 million people worldwide, including about 650,000 in the United States, during 1918-1919.
Health officials in this country and abroad have been concerned about the potential for such an outbreak to evolve from a virulent bird flu strain that originated in Southeast Asia.
Officials: Pandemic inevitable
United Nations officials have said a worldwide pandemic is inevitable, but Arizona officials cautioned that they are not saying one would occur this year or next.
The new Arizona plan “follows the federal as well as the World Health Organization model system in terms of how to devise roles and responsibilities as well as when we would put the system in place,” Mr. Engelthaler said. “It’s kind of a top-to-bottom approach.”
The plan, he said, is the equivalent of an antithesis of what happened in the case of Hurricane Katrina. “We really see that there are two sides to preparedness,” he said, “government and community. Obviously, both failed in Katrina. Here in Arizona we have to make sure that both sides are prepared.”
“It’s just the overall significance of the impact of such a large-scale emergency… We can’t be stuck in the old Katrina model where we’re not prepared,” Mr. Engelthaler said.
Mr. Engelthaler said preparedness at the local and community levels, within families, businesses and schools, is vital.
Everyday precautions count, from frequent hand-washing, covering the mouth when coughing and annual flu shots, to staying home from work or school when sick and telecommuting or working from home if needed, he said.
“Certainly we know we’ve got a lot more to do, but this marks a significant advancement forward for preparedness in Arizona,” Mr. Engelthaler said.