02/12 | Bird flu hits western Europe
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PCViking
Lutefisk Survivor
Bird flu hits western Europe
John Hooper in Rome
Sunday February 12, 2006
The Observer
Bird flu has reached western Europe for the first time, it was announced yesterday, as three new countries reported wild birds infected with the H5N1 strain.
Italy's health minister, Francesco Storace, said that tests carried out on swans found dead in Sicily and the south of mainland Italy showed that the birds had the deadly variant, as did three migratory swans found dead at Thessaloniki, the Greek government confirmed.
Speaking after a press conference in Rome, Storace said: 'Of the 17 dead swans, the majority [of deaths] were as a result of H5N1. But that does not mean all [were].' He said he was awaiting further test results from a government-run laboratory in Padua.
In Taranto, Puglia, a bird died of one of the most virulent varieties of the disease. 'The virus has got to Italy,' Storace said. But he appealed to the public not to panic or to stop eating chicken. 'Chicken has nothing to do with it,' he said.
Concern over bird flu has taken a heavy toll on Italy's poultry sector as the virus has edged westwards. Yesterday a spokesman for one of the country's largest agricultural co-operatives said that it had already caused 30,000 lay-offs and a loss of sales amounting to €550m.
Storace said the remaining swans were discovered dead or sick on Sicily near Catania, Messina and Syracuse.
'The migratory routes from the south appear to have moved towards Italy because of exceptional cold in the Balkan region,' he added. 'We can be relatively calm about human health but there are reasons to be concerned about veterinary health.'
A spokesman for the UK's Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said: 'These latest cases of swans being infected with bird flu does not affect our assessments of the risks to the UK. The swans' migratory routes do not come through this country.'
Bird flu was also confirmed in wild swans found dead in Bulgaria. They had died of the H5N1 virus. 'The disease was detected in wild swans in the Bulgarian wetland region of Vidin, close to the Romanian border,' the European Commission said in a statement.
In Bucharest, Romanian officials said yesterday that new cases had been found in fowl in the Danube delta, Europe's biggest wetland.
H5N1 has killed at least 88 people in Asia and the Middle East and prompted the slaughter of millions of birds since 2003. But all the human deaths so far are thought to have been caused by direct contact between the victims and infected birds.
The virus is not known to have mutated into a form that could be spread from person to person. If it were to do so, experts have warned, it could spark a global pandemic.
The focus of attention had earlier switched to Africa after the discovery of the virus in Nigeria.
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,1707899,00.html
PCViking
Lutefisk Survivor
EU is facing a new threat
Published: 12 February 2006ROME: The H5N1 strain of bird flu which is potentially deadly for humans has reached the European Union, having been detected in members Greece and Italy as well as in Bulgaria. Italian Health Minister Francesco Storace said the highly pathogenic strain had been found in two dead swans on the island of Sicily and was suspected in at least half-a-dozen birds elsewhere in the south of the country.
The EU Commission in Brussels for its part said that Italian authorities "confirmed outbreaks of H5N1 on the eastern coast of Sicily, in Taranto (Puglia) and in Calabria."
The measures being applied by Italy are the establishment of a high-risk area (three-kilometre protection zone) around each of the outbreaks and a surrounding surveillance zone of 10km, the European Commission said.
In the protection zone, poultry must be kept indoors, movement of poultry is banned except directly to the slaughterhouse and the dispatch of meat outside the zone is forbidden except where products have undergone the controls provided for in EU food controls legislation.
In both the protection zone and the surveillance zone, on-farm biosecurity measures must be strengthened, hunting of wild birds is banned and disease awareness of poultry owners and their families must be carried out, the commission said.
The measures have already been agreed by Greece following the discovery of dead swans in the northern Salonika region, which were confirmed to have been carrying H5N1.
In Brussels the European Commission said the H5N1 strain had also been found in wild swans in the Bulgarian wetland region of Vidin, close to the Romanian border, last week.
In Romania, health officials yesterday ordered tests after a possible new case of bird flu of the H5 strain was detected at a farm in the Danube delta, the agriculture ministry said.
An Indonesian woman from West Java province died of bird flu, an official said, citing local laboratory tests, the second death within days from the deadly virus in the town.
Dewi Sartika, 37, from Bekasi, a town just east of the capital Jakarta, died overnight at the Sulianti Saroso Hospital, said Hariadi Wibisono, a Health Ministry official.
In Iraq, health authorities sent tissue samples of 12 people suspected of having the deadly bird flu virus to a US Navy laboratory in Egypt for testing.
Several of the samples, including the dead uncle of Iraq's only confirmed bird flu carrier, were delayed by more than a week because of Iraqi authorities were waiting for equipment from the U N health agency, said Dr Ibtisam Aziz Ali, spokeswoman for a government committee handling the bird flu crisis.
http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Story.asp?Article=135214&Sn=WORL&IssueID=28329
PCViking
Lutefisk Survivor
Nigeria
Article Date: 11 Feb 2006 - 15:00pm (UK)
Two people have fallen ill with flu-like symptoms near the Sambawa Farms, Kaduna, where chickens are infected with the lethal H5N1 Bird Flu virus strain. Nigerian authorities say they are trying to establish whether these two people have been infected with the bird flu virus.
A few days bird flu infection among chickens was confirmed in northen Nigeria, in the state of Kaduna. A couple of days later it spilled into bordering states.
Information given out by Nigerian authorities as to exactly how many people may have bird flu like symptoms is patchy. Some say there are two people, while others say there are ‘a few' suspected cases.
An rumour that a human case of bird flu was found in the south of Nigeria. There is no confirmation on whether this is true.
At the moment the procedure for confirming bird flu infection is as follows:
1. A sample is taken.
2. It is sent to a lab in Nigeria.
3. If it tests negative, that is the end of it.
4. It it tests positive, it is then sent abroad for confirmation.
Bird flu has made its way from Viet Nam, in south east Asia, across the world to Nigeria, in west Africa. Africa is a vast continent. If the virus spills over into Sub-Saharan Africa, one of the poorest regions in the world with a population of 600 million people, it will be extremely difficult to monitor. Local health experts say it would be virtually impossible to ask people in Sub Saharan Africa, many of whom are facing starvation, to surrender their chickens for culling.
People in Europe are concerned about the coming of Spring, when birds migrate from Africa to Europe (and parts of Asia).
Written by: Christian Nordqvist
Editor: Medical News Today
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/healthnews.php?newsid=37585
People Falling Ill Near To Chickens With Bird Flu, Nigeria
Article Date: 11 Feb 2006 - 15:00pm (UK)
Two people have fallen ill with flu-like symptoms near the Sambawa Farms, Kaduna, where chickens are infected with the lethal H5N1 Bird Flu virus strain. Nigerian authorities say they are trying to establish whether these two people have been infected with the bird flu virus.
A few days bird flu infection among chickens was confirmed in northen Nigeria, in the state of Kaduna. A couple of days later it spilled into bordering states.
Information given out by Nigerian authorities as to exactly how many people may have bird flu like symptoms is patchy. Some say there are two people, while others say there are ‘a few' suspected cases.
An rumour that a human case of bird flu was found in the south of Nigeria. There is no confirmation on whether this is true.
At the moment the procedure for confirming bird flu infection is as follows:
1. A sample is taken.
2. It is sent to a lab in Nigeria.
3. If it tests negative, that is the end of it.
4. It it tests positive, it is then sent abroad for confirmation.
Bird flu has made its way from Viet Nam, in south east Asia, across the world to Nigeria, in west Africa. Africa is a vast continent. If the virus spills over into Sub-Saharan Africa, one of the poorest regions in the world with a population of 600 million people, it will be extremely difficult to monitor. Local health experts say it would be virtually impossible to ask people in Sub Saharan Africa, many of whom are facing starvation, to surrender their chickens for culling.
People in Europe are concerned about the coming of Spring, when birds migrate from Africa to Europe (and parts of Asia).
Written by: Christian Nordqvist
Editor: Medical News Today
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/healthnews.php?newsid=37585
Slovenia sends bird flu samples for testing-EU
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L12286556.htm
12 Feb 2006 13:27:22 GMT
Source: Reuters
BRUSSELS, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Slovenia has sent samples of avian influenza H5 found in a swan to Britain for further tests to see if it is of the highly pathogenic variety, the European Commission said on Sunday.
"The Slovenian authorities today informed the European Commission of a confirmed case of avian influenza virus H5 in (a) swan," the Commission said.
The area where the swan was found is less than 10 km (6 miles) from the Austrian border, the Commission said.
The Commission said the Slovenian Laboratory for Avian Influenza made the first analysis and sent samples to the EU Reference Laboratory for Avian Influenza in Weybridge, Britain.
Dead swans discovered in Greece, Italy and Bulgaria tested positive for the highly pathogenic version of the H5N1 strain of the virus on Saturday.
The Commission said Slovenia was taking similar measures to those three countries, including establishing a 3 km (2 mile) protection zone around the area where the swan was found and a surveillance zone of 10 km.
"The Slovenian authorities are in close contact with their Austrian counterparts since the 10 km area crosses the Slovenian-Austrian border," the Commission said.
PCViking
Lutefisk Survivor
Nigerian outbreak of avian disease brings nightmare scenario to life ANALYSIS
By Elisabeth Rosenthal and Donald G. McNeil Jr., New York Times
Inside Bay Area
As epidemics go, it was a relatively small outbreak: 40,000 chickens died in mid-January on a commercial poultry farm in Nigeria. No humans, apparently, were infected. But it was the outbreak many experts on avian flu had been dreading for months.
It was the first time the fast-moving A(H5N1) virus had been reported in Africa. And while U.N. agencies are scrambling to form medical and veterinary response and surveillance teams, scientists say its appearance there is deeply worrisome for two reasons: First, the continent is ill prepared to deal with epidemics, whether human or animal. Second, the Nigerian outbreak comes only a month or two before birds begin migrating north from Africa to Europe, which has so far been largely untouched by the virus.
"These are horrendous developments, whether you're a human or if you're a bird," said John Oxford, a professor of virology at Queen Mary's College in London. "Everyone wondered what would happen if avian influenza came to Africa, but no one was really prepared. They waited. Now it's there — and this is not the most organized continent in the world."
World health officials say they have not had the cooperation they needed from many poor countries, even those on the flight paths of migrating birds known to carry flu. They got lab samples weeks or months after problems began, so they worry that the disease is already much more widespread.
As late as Monday, Nigerian veterinary officials were assuring the nation that the disease was not in their country. But Juan Lubroth, a senior veterinarian at the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome, said in an interview that there was strong evidence bird flu took root in Nigeria "a few months ago."
While the outbreak took place on a commercial poultry farm, he said, the virus may well have been percolating for months in backyard flocks. "How long has it been trickling around, with five deaths here and five deaths there, and owners would possibly not be aware of the problem?" he asked.
The problem of sluggish reporting is not limited to Africa. It was common in the early months of the outbreaks in Asia, in 2003. In Azerbaijan, which reported its first cases on Friday, bird flu was "picked up because of international pressure to come clean," Lubroth said, adding: "We've been repeating over and over to countries that they have to be vigilant, but in most countries it's business as usual. They say, 'Avian influenza isn't here now — we'll deal with it when it arrives.' But then it's too late."
Maria Cheng, a spokeswoman for the World Health Organization, said her agency suspected that there might be human cases of A(H5N1) flu in Africa but had no way to confirm that yet. "We're getting a team ready to go," she said, "but we're waiting to get the invitation from Nigeria."
Even when scattered U.N. teams are in place, the disease could spread faster than they can track it. The health care systems of most of Africa's 52 countries are so broken down that most are unable to vaccinate children or distribute AIDS drugs without Western financial aid and technical advice.
The only laboratories on the continent with licenses from the WHO and the ability to run the necessary sequencing tests on flu viruses are in Egypt and South Africa, 4,000 miles apart. And little is known about the spread of even regular seasonal flu, said Dr. Michael L. Perdue, a scientist with the WHO influenza program in Geneva.
Confusion about avian flu is rife in Nigeria. On Monday, the chief of veterinary services in Kano state assured the country that the disease that by then had killed 60,000 chickens was avian cholera — a disease with symptoms different from those of avian flu, and caused by a bacteria, not a virus. Testing in an Italian lab determined that the disease was indeed avian flu.
On Wednesday, an Agence France-Presse reporter interviewing traders in the Kano markets found that the price of chickens had dropped to $2 from $6 because farmers were dumping their birds on the market before they died or were culled. By Friday, The Daily Sun, a large national newspaper, was reporting under the headline "Bird Flu Scare Grips Nigeria" that government ministers were shunning chicken in favor of beef and fish at banquets, apparently unaware that cooked chicken is safe.
The paper also interviewed five Nigerian doctors, all of whom said there was no treatment for the disease. That is not correct, though the usual treatment, the antiviral drug Tamiflu, is expensive and in short supply.
Also on Friday, a BBC News reporter visited one of the northern farms where 20,000 birds had died. Although the Nigerian Health Ministry had announced that the farms were quarantined and being disinfected, he reported that basic safety measures were being ignored. Carcasses were being burned in the open, letting infectious feathers and dander spread downwind. The farm workers doing the culling wore their regular overalls and had no protective gear. Villagers were still entering the property to draw well water.
Northern Nigeria is one of the world's last outposts of endemic polio, in part because people in Kano were long told by local leaders that the vaccine was unsafe. The polio eradication drive going on there now could be a boon in the effort to counter avian flu. Dr. David L. Heymann, who is in charge of the WHO anti-polio campaign, said the 300 Nigerian health workers now trained to spot cases in children and collect fecal samples for polio tests could be retrained to look for cases of flu and pneumonia and possibly collect nasal swabs.
"They have vehicles and cell phones," he said, "so they're a valuable resource."
http://www.insidebayarea.com/trivalleyherald/news/ci_3501539
Attachments
Pandemic risk rises as bird flu spreads
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/12/news/flu.php
By Elisabeth Rosenthal and Donald G. McNeil Jr. The New York Times
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 12, 2006
As bird flu outbreaks have cropped up like wildfires in Nigeria, Azerbaijan, and Iraq over the past week - countries that are ill-prepared to battle the fast-moving virus - scientists have said that the new pattern of spread makes a worldwide human pandemic ever more likely.
The fact that the flu has reached Africa, the globe's poorest continent - already heavily burdened with AIDS and malaria - is extremely worrisome, experts said.
United Nations agencies are scrambling to form medical and veterinary response teams and to reorient a polio surveillance network they have created in Nigeria to search for avian flu.
"These are horrendous developments, whether you're a human or if you're a bird," said John Oxford, professor of virology at Queen Mary's College in London. "Everyone wondered what would happen if avian influenza came to Africa, but no one really prepared. They waited. Now it's there - and this is not the most organized continent in the world."
Most bird flu cases up to now have been in Asia. On Sunday, Indonesia said that two women died last week from bird flu, pushing the death toll from the disease there to 18, The Associated Press reported from Jakarta.
European officials announced Saturday that bird flu virus had been detected in wild birds in Italy, Greece and Bulgaria, the first time its presence has been detected in the European Union.
"The bird flu virus has arrived in Italy," Francesco Storace, the Italian health minister, said at a news conference, announcing that 17 swans had been found dead in three southern regions, Calabria, Sicily, and Puglia. Testing at the Italian National Avian Influenza Lab in Padua determined the cause to be bird flu, he said, although it was not clear if all 17 swans had been tested.
The arrival of bird flu in Italy, and in the European Union, had been predicted for some months, as the virus has marched steadily from eastern Asia, to Russia, to the Balkans and, in the last week, to West Africa. Experts say the virus is being carried by migrating birds, so all countries on their flight paths are vulnerable.
World health officials say they have not had the cooperation they need from many poor countries, even those on the flight paths of migrating birds known to carry flu.
Because of poor surveillance and rudimentary laboratory capabilities, they often received lab samples for testing weeks or months after problems begin - and for that reason, they worry that the disease is already much more widespread than they can prove.
"We are fighting the good fight, but to win it we'll need a lot more proactive surveillance and prevention," said Juan Lubroth, a senior veterinarian at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, in Rome.
There was strong evidence that bird flu took root in Nigeria "a few months ago," Lubroth said, even though it was only confirmed last week, after Nigerian veterinary officials had said last Monday that bird flu was not in the country.
The outbreak only gained official attention after 40,000 birds died on a commercial poultry farm in January. But such farms were generally the last place to become infected, Lubroth said, since they are relatively isolated from the general poultry stock.
The virus may have percolated in backyard flocks for months, he said.
"How long has it been trickling around, with five deaths here and five deaths there, and owners would possibly not be aware of the problem?" he asked.
In Azerbaijan, which reported its first cases on Friday, bird flu was only "picked up because of international pressure to come clean," Lubroth added.
There may be more unreported outbreaks in Africa and the Caucasus region, he said. "We've been repeating over and over to countries that they have to be vigilant, but in most countries, it's business as usual. They say, 'Avian influenza isn't here now. We'll deal with it when it arrives.' But then it's too late."
Maria Cheng, a spokeswoman for the World Health Organization, said the agency suspected there might be human cases of bird flu in Africa, but had no way to confirm that yet.
"We're getting a team ready to go," she said, "but we're waiting to get the invitation from Nigeria."
On the bright side, thanks to a massive infusion of cash from a World Bank donors conference on bird flu in Beijing last month, the UN food and agriculture agency now has almost $30 million to help poor countries combat the disease.
But even when scattered UN teams are in place, the disease could spread faster than they can track it, experts said. The health care systems of most African countries are so broken down that most are unable to vaccinate children or distribute AIDS drugs without Western financial aid and technical advice.
The only WHO-licensed laboratories in Africa that are sophisticated enough to sequence flu viruses are in Egypt and South Africa
Little is known about the spread of even regular seasonal flu, said Dr. Michael Perdue, a scientist with the World Health Organization influenza program in Geneva.
"We get samples that South Africa takes from neighboring countries," he said, "but we know very little about central Africa."
Also, confusion about avian flu is clearly rife in Nigeria.
On Monday, the chief of veterinary services in the Nigerian state of Kano assured the country that the epidemic, which by than had killed 60,000 chickens in mid-January, was avian cholera - a disease with different symptoms, and caused by a bacteria, not a virus.
The Nigerian government announced Saturday that the American Embassy there had promised $25 million in aid and 2,000 protective suits for use in fighting the outbreak. Northern Nigeria is one of the world's last outposts of endemic polio and a major eradication drive is going on there now.
Dr. David Heymann, who is in charge of the World Health Organization polio campaign, said the 300 Nigerian health workers now trained to spot paralysis cases in children and collect fecal samples for polio tests could be retrained to look for cases of flu and pneumonia and possibly collect nasal swabs.
"They have vehicles and cellphones, so they're a valuable resource," he said. "It's a logical piggyback."
With little accurate information about the disease's spread, scientists have been left to speculate about the possible impact of the disease in Africa.
Population density is lower than in Asia, Heymann noted, which could slow the spread. "Flu could wipe out all the chickens in a village, but there's still savannah or jungle between the villages," he said. Also, living with birds under the same roof is somewhat less common than in Asia.
But Africa also has the worst AIDS epidemic in the world; in some countries nearly a third of the adult population is infected. In the initial stages, having a depressed immune system could have a protective effect, said Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, because virulent flus set off a powerful immune reaction that can drown the lungs in fluid.
However, he added, it would probably hurt patients trying to fight off secondary immune reactions.
But HIV-infected people who managed to fight off bird flu would become ideal crucibles in which the H5N1 virus could exchange genes with other viruses, dramatically increasing the likelihood of a bird flu strain that could readily infect humans.
"If H5N1 gets into people with AIDS it would likely persist and throw off mutants left, right and center," Oxford said.
If bird flu takes root in Africa - or if has already done so, undetected - it could prove disastrous not just for that continent, but for Europe as well, experts say, since the northern migration of birds begins next month.
"The prospects are not good," said Oxford. "Soon they'll be coming back over Europe and why wouldn't it cause a great danger?" As a virologist, Oxford said that he could only assume that Nigeria was just the "red light we could see," but that there were similar bird flu problems in many other places.
He said there was still hope that intensive biosecurity measure in all countries, such as the early detection of sick birds and vaccination of poultry around bird flu zones, could contain the virus and head off a human pandemic.
"The world is attempting a great experiment: to prevent a human pandemic by controlling the factors that lead to it," he said.
As bird flu outbreaks have cropped up like wildfires in Nigeria, Azerbaijan, and Iraq over the past week - countries that are ill-prepared to battle the fast-moving virus - scientists have said that the new pattern of spread makes a worldwide human pandemic ever more likely.
The fact that the flu has reached Africa, the globe's poorest continent - already heavily burdened with AIDS and malaria - is extremely worrisome, experts said.
United Nations agencies are scrambling to form medical and veterinary response teams and to reorient a polio surveillance network they have created in Nigeria to search for avian flu.
"These are horrendous developments, whether you're a human or if you're a bird," said John Oxford, professor of virology at Queen Mary's College in London. "Everyone wondered what would happen if avian influenza came to Africa, but no one really prepared. They waited. Now it's there - and this is not the most organized continent in the world."
Most bird flu cases up to now have been in Asia. On Sunday, Indonesia said that two women died last week from bird flu, pushing the death toll from the disease there to 18, The Associated Press reported from Jakarta.
European officials announced Saturday that bird flu virus had been detected in wild birds in Italy, Greece and Bulgaria, the first time its presence has been detected in the European Union.
"The bird flu virus has arrived in Italy," Francesco Storace, the Italian health minister, said at a news conference, announcing that 17 swans had been found dead in three southern regions, Calabria, Sicily, and Puglia. Testing at the Italian National Avian Influenza Lab in Padua determined the cause to be bird flu, he said, although it was not clear if all 17 swans had been tested.
The arrival of bird flu in Italy, and in the European Union, had been predicted for some months, as the virus has marched steadily from eastern Asia, to Russia, to the Balkans and, in the last week, to West Africa. Experts say the virus is being carried by migrating birds, so all countries on their flight paths are vulnerable.
World health officials say they have not had the cooperation they need from many poor countries, even those on the flight paths of migrating birds known to carry flu.
Because of poor surveillance and rudimentary laboratory capabilities, they often received lab samples for testing weeks or months after problems begin - and for that reason, they worry that the disease is already much more widespread than they can prove.
"We are fighting the good fight, but to win it we'll need a lot more proactive surveillance and prevention," said Juan Lubroth, a senior veterinarian at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, in Rome.
There was strong evidence that bird flu took root in Nigeria "a few months ago," Lubroth said, even though it was only confirmed last week, after Nigerian veterinary officials had said last Monday that bird flu was not in the country.
The outbreak only gained official attention after 40,000 birds died on a commercial poultry farm in January. But such farms were generally the last place to become infected, Lubroth said, since they are relatively isolated from the general poultry stock.
The virus may have percolated in backyard flocks for months, he said.
"How long has it been trickling around, with five deaths here and five deaths there, and owners would possibly not be aware of the problem?" he asked.
In Azerbaijan, which reported its first cases on Friday, bird flu was only "picked up because of international pressure to come clean," Lubroth added.
There may be more unreported outbreaks in Africa and the Caucasus region, he said. "We've been repeating over and over to countries that they have to be vigilant, but in most countries, it's business as usual. They say, 'Avian influenza isn't here now. We'll deal with it when it arrives.' But then it's too late."
Maria Cheng, a spokeswoman for the World Health Organization, said the agency suspected there might be human cases of bird flu in Africa, but had no way to confirm that yet.
"We're getting a team ready to go," she said, "but we're waiting to get the invitation from Nigeria."
On the bright side, thanks to a massive infusion of cash from a World Bank donors conference on bird flu in Beijing last month, the UN food and agriculture agency now has almost $30 million to help poor countries combat the disease.
But even when scattered UN teams are in place, the disease could spread faster than they can track it, experts said. The health care systems of most African countries are so broken down that most are unable to vaccinate children or distribute AIDS drugs without Western financial aid and technical advice.
The only WHO-licensed laboratories in Africa that are sophisticated enough to sequence flu viruses are in Egypt and South Africa
Little is known about the spread of even regular seasonal flu, said Dr. Michael Perdue, a scientist with the World Health Organization influenza program in Geneva.
"We get samples that South Africa takes from neighboring countries," he said, "but we know very little about central Africa."
Also, confusion about avian flu is clearly rife in Nigeria.
On Monday, the chief of veterinary services in the Nigerian state of Kano assured the country that the epidemic, which by than had killed 60,000 chickens in mid-January, was avian cholera - a disease with different symptoms, and caused by a bacteria, not a virus.
The Nigerian government announced Saturday that the American Embassy there had promised $25 million in aid and 2,000 protective suits for use in fighting the outbreak. Northern Nigeria is one of the world's last outposts of endemic polio and a major eradication drive is going on there now.
Dr. David Heymann, who is in charge of the World Health Organization polio campaign, said the 300 Nigerian health workers now trained to spot paralysis cases in children and collect fecal samples for polio tests could be retrained to look for cases of flu and pneumonia and possibly collect nasal swabs.
"They have vehicles and cellphones, so they're a valuable resource," he said. "It's a logical piggyback."
With little accurate information about the disease's spread, scientists have been left to speculate about the possible impact of the disease in Africa.
Population density is lower than in Asia, Heymann noted, which could slow the spread. "Flu could wipe out all the chickens in a village, but there's still savannah or jungle between the villages," he said. Also, living with birds under the same roof is somewhat less common than in Asia.
But Africa also has the worst AIDS epidemic in the world; in some countries nearly a third of the adult population is infected. In the initial stages, having a depressed immune system could have a protective effect, said Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, because virulent flus set off a powerful immune reaction that can drown the lungs in fluid.
However, he added, it would probably hurt patients trying to fight off secondary immune reactions.
But HIV-infected people who managed to fight off bird flu would become ideal crucibles in which the H5N1 virus could exchange genes with other viruses, dramatically increasing the likelihood of a bird flu strain that could readily infect humans.
"If H5N1 gets into people with AIDS it would likely persist and throw off mutants left, right and center," Oxford said.
If bird flu takes root in Africa - or if has already done so, undetected - it could prove disastrous not just for that continent, but for Europe as well, experts say, since the northern migration of birds begins next month.
"The prospects are not good," said Oxford. "Soon they'll be coming back over Europe and why wouldn't it cause a great danger?" As a virologist, Oxford said that he could only assume that Nigeria was just the "red light we could see," but that there were similar bird flu problems in many other places.
He said there was still hope that intensive biosecurity measure in all countries, such as the early detection of sick birds and vaccination of poultry around bird flu zones, could contain the virus and head off a human pandemic.
"The world is attempting a great experiment: to prevent a human pandemic by controlling the factors that lead to it," he said.
As bird flu outbreaks have cropped up like wildfires in Nigeria, Azerbaijan, and Iraq over the past week - countries that are ill-prepared to battle the fast-moving virus - scientists have said that the new pattern of spread makes a worldwide human pandemic ever more likely.
The fact that the flu has reached Africa, the globe's poorest continent - already heavily burdened with AIDS and malaria - is extremely worrisome, experts said.
United Nations agencies are scrambling to form medical and veterinary response teams and to reorient a polio surveillance network they have created in Nigeria to search for avian flu.
"These are horrendous developments, whether you're a human or if you're a bird," said John Oxford, professor of virology at Queen Mary's College in London. "Everyone wondered what would happen if avian influenza came to Africa, but no one really prepared. They waited. Now it's there - and this is not the most organized continent in the world."
Most bird flu cases up to now have been in Asia. On Sunday, Indonesia said that two women died last week from bird flu, pushing the death toll from the disease there to 18, The Associated Press reported from Jakarta.
European officials announced Saturday that bird flu virus had been detected in wild birds in Italy, Greece and Bulgaria, the first time its presence has been detected in the European Union.
"The bird flu virus has arrived in Italy," Francesco Storace, the Italian health minister, said at a news conference, announcing that 17 swans had been found dead in three southern regions, Calabria, Sicily, and Puglia. Testing at the Italian National Avian Influenza Lab in Padua determined the cause to be bird flu, he said, although it was not clear if all 17 swans had been tested.
The arrival of bird flu in Italy, and in the European Union, had been predicted for some months, as the virus has marched steadily from eastern Asia, to Russia, to the Balkans and, in the last week, to West Africa. Experts say the virus is being carried by migrating birds, so all countries on their flight paths are vulnerable.
World health officials say they have not had the cooperation they need from many poor countries, even those on the flight paths of migrating birds known to carry flu.
Because of poor surveillance and rudimentary laboratory capabilities, they often received lab samples for testing weeks or months after problems begin - and for that reason, they worry that the disease is already much more widespread than they can prove.
"We are fighting the good fight, but to win it we'll need a lot more proactive surveillance and prevention," said Juan Lubroth, a senior veterinarian at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, in Rome.
There was strong evidence that bird flu took root in Nigeria "a few months ago," Lubroth said, even though it was only confirmed last week, after Nigerian veterinary officials had said last Monday that bird flu was not in the country.
The outbreak only gained official attention after 40,000 birds died on a commercial poultry farm in January. But such farms were generally the last place to become infected, Lubroth said, since they are relatively isolated from the general poultry stock.
The virus may have percolated in backyard flocks for months, he said.
"How long has it been trickling around, with five deaths here and five deaths there, and owners would possibly not be aware of the problem?" he asked.
In Azerbaijan, which reported its first cases on Friday, bird flu was only "picked up because of international pressure to come clean," Lubroth added.
There may be more unreported outbreaks in Africa and the Caucasus region, he said. "We've been repeating over and over to countries that they have to be vigilant, but in most countries, it's business as usual. They say, 'Avian influenza isn't here now. We'll deal with it when it arrives.' But then it's too late."
Maria Cheng, a spokeswoman for the World Health Organization, said the agency suspected there might be human cases of bird flu in Africa, but had no way to confirm that yet.
"We're getting a team ready to go," she said, "but we're waiting to get the invitation from Nigeria."
On the bright side, thanks to a massive infusion of cash from a World Bank donors conference on bird flu in Beijing last month, the UN food and agriculture agency now has almost $30 million to help poor countries combat the disease.
But even when scattered UN teams are in place, the disease could spread faster than they can track it, experts said. The health care systems of most African countries are so broken down that most are unable to vaccinate children or distribute AIDS drugs without Western financial aid and technical advice.
The only WHO-licensed laboratories in Africa that are sophisticated enough to sequence flu viruses are in Egypt and South Africa
Little is known about the spread of even regular seasonal flu, said Dr. Michael Perdue, a scientist with the World Health Organization influenza program in Geneva.
"We get samples that South Africa takes from neighboring countries," he said, "but we know very little about central Africa."
Also, confusion about avian flu is clearly rife in Nigeria.
On Monday, the chief of veterinary services in the Nigerian state of Kano assured the country that the epidemic, which by than had killed 60,000 chickens in mid-January, was avian cholera - a disease with different symptoms, and caused by a bacteria, not a virus.
The Nigerian government announced Saturday that the American Embassy there had promised $25 million in aid and 2,000 protective suits for use in fighting the outbreak. Northern Nigeria is one of the world's last outposts of endemic polio and a major eradication drive is going on there now.
Dr. David Heymann, who is in charge of the World Health Organization polio campaign, said the 300 Nigerian health workers now trained to spot paralysis cases in children and collect fecal samples for polio tests could be retrained to look for cases of flu and pneumonia and possibly collect nasal swabs.
"They have vehicles and cellphones, so they're a valuable resource," he said. "It's a logical piggyback."
With little accurate information about the disease's spread, scientists have been left to speculate about the possible impact of the disease in Africa.
Population density is lower than in Asia, Heymann noted, which could slow the spread. "Flu could wipe out all the chickens in a village, but there's still savannah or jungle between the villages," he said. Also, living with birds under the same roof is somewhat less common than in Asia.
But Africa also has the worst AIDS epidemic in the world; in some countries nearly a third of the adult population is infected. In the initial stages, having a depressed immune system could have a protective effect, said Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, because virulent flus set off a powerful immune reaction that can drown the lungs in fluid.
However, he added, it would probably hurt patients trying to fight off secondary immune reactions.
But HIV-infected people who managed to fight off bird flu would become ideal crucibles in which the H5N1 virus could exchange genes with other viruses, dramatically increasing the likelihood of a bird flu strain that could readily infect humans.
"If H5N1 gets into people with AIDS it would likely persist and throw off mutants left, right and center," Oxford said.
If bird flu takes root in Africa - or if has already done so, undetected - it could prove disastrous not just for that continent, but for Europe as well, experts say, since the northern migration of birds begins next month.
"The prospects are not good," said Oxford. "Soon they'll be coming back over Europe and why wouldn't it cause a great danger?" As a virologist, Oxford said that he could only assume that Nigeria was just the "red light we could see," but that there were similar bird flu problems in many other places.
He said there was still hope that intensive biosecurity measure in all countries, such as the early detection of sick birds and vaccination of poultry around bird flu zones, could contain the virus and head off a human pandemic.
"The world is attempting a great experiment: to prevent a human pandemic by controlling the factors that lead to it," he said.
birds, so all countries on their flight paths are vulnerable.
World health officials say they have not had the cooperation they need from many poor countries, even those on the flight paths of migrating birds known to carry flu.
Because of poor surveillance and rudimentary laboratory capabilities, they often received lab samples for testing weeks or months after problems begin - and for that reason, they worry that the disease is already much more widespread than they can prove.
"We are fighting the good fight, but to win it we'll need a lot more proactive surveillance and prevention," said Juan Lubroth, a senior veterinarian at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, in Rome.
There was strong evidence that bird flu took root in Nigeria "a few months ago," Lubroth said, even though it was only confirmed last week, after Nigerian veterinary officials had said last Monday that bird flu was not in the country.
The outbreak only gained official attention after 40,000 birds died on a commercial poultry farm in January. But such farms were generally the last place to become infected, Lubroth said, since they are relatively isolated from the general poultry stock.
The virus may have percolated in backyard flocks for months, he said.
"How long has it been trickling around, with five deaths here and five deaths there, and owners would possibly not be aware of the problem?" he asked.
In Azerbaijan, which reported its first cases on Friday, bird flu was only "picked up because of international pressure to come clean," Lubroth added.
There may be more unreported outbreaks in Africa and the Caucasus region, he said. "We've been repeating over and over to countries that they have to be vigilant, but in most countries, it's business as usual. They say, 'Avian influenza isn't here now. We'll deal with it when it arrives.' But then it's too late."
Maria Cheng, a spokeswoman for the World Health Organization, said the agency suspected there might be human cases of bird flu in Africa, but had no way to confirm that yet.
"We're getting a team ready to go," she said, "but we're waiting to get the invitation from Nigeria."
On the bright side, thanks to a massive infusion of cash from a World Bank donors conference on bird flu in Beijing last month, the UN food and agriculture agency now has almost $30 million to help poor countries combat the disease.
But even when scattered UN teams are in place, the disease could spread faster than they can track it, experts said. The health care systems of most African countries are so broken down that most are unable to vaccinate children or distribute AIDS drugs without Western financial aid and technical advice.
The only WHO-licensed laboratories in Africa that are sophisticated enough to sequence flu viruses are in Egypt and South Africa
Little is known about the spread of even regular seasonal flu, said Dr. Michael Perdue, a scientist with the World Health Organization influenza program in Geneva.
"We get samples that South Africa takes from neighboring countries," he said, "but we know very little about central Africa."
Also, confusion about avian flu is clearly rife in Nigeria.
On Monday, the chief of veterinary services in the Nigerian state of Kano assured the country that the epidemic, which by than had killed 60,000 chickens in mid-January, was avian cholera - a disease with different symptoms, and caused by a bacteria, not a virus.
The Nigerian government announced Saturday that the American Embassy there had promised $25 million in aid and 2,000 protective suits for use in fighting the outbreak. Northern Nigeria is one of the world's last outposts of endemic polio and a major eradication drive is going on there now.
Dr. David Heymann, who is in charge of the World Health Organization polio campaign, said the 300 Nigerian health workers now trained to spot paralysis cases in children and collect fecal samples for polio tests could be retrained to look for cases of flu and pneumonia and possibly collect nasal swabs.
"They have vehicles and cellphones, so they're a valuable resource," he said. "It's a logical piggyback."
With little accurate information about the disease's spread, scientists have been left to speculate about the possible impact of the disease in Africa.
Population density is lower than in Asia, Heymann noted, which could slow the spread. "Flu could wipe out all the chickens in a village, but there's still savannah or jungle between the villages," he said. Also, living with birds under the same roof is somewhat less common than in Asia.
But Africa also has the worst AIDS epidemic in the world; in some countries nearly a third of the adult population is infected. In the initial stages, having a depressed immune system could have a protective effect, said Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, because virulent flus set off a powerful immune reaction that can drown the lungs in fluid.
However, he added, it would probably hurt patients trying to fight off secondary immune reactions.
But HIV-infected people who managed to fight off bird flu would become ideal crucibles in which the H5N1 virus could exchange genes with other viruses, dramatically increasing the likelihood of a bird flu strain that could readily infect humans.
"If H5N1 gets into people with AIDS it would likely persist and throw off mutants left, right and center," Oxford said.
If bird flu takes root in Africa - or if has already done so, undetected - it could prove disastrous not just for that continent, but for Europe as well, experts say, since the northern migration of birds begins next month.
"The prospects are not good," said Oxford. "Soon they'll be coming back over Europe and why wouldn't it cause a great danger?" As a virologist, Oxford said that he could only assume that Nigeria was just the "red light we could see," but that there were similar bird flu problems in many other places.
He said there was still hope that intensive biosecurity measure in all countries, such as the early detection of sick birds and vaccination of poultry around bird flu zones, could contain the virus and head off a human pandemic.
"The world is attempting a great experiment: to prevent a human pandemic by controlling the factors that lead to it," he said.
As bird flu outbreaks have cropped up like wildfires in Nigeria, Azerbaijan, and Iraq over the past week - countries that are ill-prepared to battle the fast-moving virus - scientists have said that the new pattern of spread makes a worldwide human pandemic ever more likely.
The fact that the flu has reached Africa, the globe's poorest continent - already heavily burdened with AIDS and malaria - is extremely worrisome, experts said.
United Nations agencies are scrambling to form medical and veterinary response teams and to reorient a polio surveillance network they have created in Nigeria to search for avian flu.
"These are horrendous developments, whether you're a human or if you're a bird," said John Oxford, professor of virology at Queen Mary's College in London. "Everyone wondered what would happen if avian influenza came to Africa, but no one really prepared. They waited. Now it's there - and this is not the most organized continent in the world."
Most bird flu cases up to now have been in Asia. On Sunday, Indonesia said that two women died last week from bird flu, pushing the death toll from the disease there to 18, The Associated Press reported from Jakarta.
European officials announced Saturday that bird flu virus had been detected in wild birds in Italy, Greece and Bulgaria, the first time its presence has been detected in the European Union.
"The bird flu virus has arrived in Italy," Francesco Storace, the Italian health minister, said at a news conference, announcing that 17 swans had been found dead in three southern regions, Calabria, Sicily, and Puglia. Testing at the Italian National Avian Influenza Lab in Padua determined the cause to be bird flu, he said, although it was not clear if all 17 swans had been tested.
The arrival of bird flu in Italy, and in the European Union, had been predicted for some months, as the virus has marched steadily from eastern Asia, to Russia, to the Balkans and, in the last week, to West Africa. Experts say the virus is being carried by migrating birds, so all countries on their flight paths are vulnerable.
World health officials say they have not had the cooperation they need from many poor countries, even those on the flight paths of migrating birds known to carry flu.
Because of poor surveillance and rudimentary laboratory capabilities, they often received lab samples for testing weeks or months after problems begin - and for that reason, they worry that the disease is already much more widespread than they can prove.
"We are fighting the good fight, but to win it we'll need a lot more proactive surveillance and prevention," said Juan Lubroth, a senior veterinarian at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, in Rome.
There was strong evidence that bird flu took root in Nigeria "a few months ago," Lubroth said, even though it was only confirmed last week, after Nigerian veterinary officials had said last Monday that bird flu was not in the country.
The outbreak only gained official attention after 40,000 birds died on a commercial poultry farm in January. But such farms were generally the last place to become infected, Lubroth said, since they are relatively isolated from the general poultry stock.
The virus may have percolated in backyard flocks for months, he said.
"How long has it been trickling around, with five deaths here and five deaths there, and owners would possibly not be aware of the problem?" he asked.
In Azerbaijan, which reported its first cases on Friday, bird flu was only "picked up because of international pressure to come clean," Lubroth added.
There may be more unreported outbreaks in Africa and the Caucasus region, he said. "We've been repeating over and over to countries that they have to be vigilant, but in most countries, it's business as usual. They say, 'Avian influenza isn't here now. We'll deal with it when it arrives.' But then it's too late."
Maria Cheng, a spokeswoman for the World Health Organization, said the agency suspected there might be human cases of bird flu in Africa, but had no way to confirm that yet.
"We're getting a team ready to go," she said, "but we're waiting to get the invitation from Nigeria."
On the bright side, thanks to a massive infusion of cash from a World Bank donors conference on bird flu in Beijing last month, the UN food and agriculture agency now has almost $30 million to help poor countries combat the disease.
But even when scattered UN teams are in place, the disease could spread faster than they can track it, experts said. The health care systems of most African countries are so broken down that most are unable to vaccinate children or distribute AIDS drugs without Western financial aid and technical advice.
The only WHO-licensed laboratories in Africa that are sophisticated enough to sequence flu viruses are in Egypt and South Africa
Little is known about the spread of even regular seasonal flu, said Dr. Michael Perdue, a scientist with the World Health Organization influenza program in Geneva.
"We get samples that South Africa takes from neighboring countries," he said, "but we know very little about central Africa."
Also, confusion about avian flu is clearly rife in Nigeria.
On Monday, the chief of veterinary services in the Nigerian state of Kano assured the country that the epidemic, which by than had killed 60,000 chickens in mid-January, was avian cholera - a disease with different symptoms, and caused by a bacteria, not a virus.
The Nigerian government announced Saturday that the American Embassy there had promised $25 million in aid and 2,000 protective suits for use in fighting the outbreak. Northern Nigeria is one of the world's last outposts of endemic polio and a major eradication drive is going on there now.
Dr. David Heymann, who is in charge of the World Health Organization polio campaign, said the 300 Nigerian health workers now trained to spot paralysis cases in children and collect fecal samples for polio tests could be retrained to look for cases of flu and pneumonia and possibly collect nasal swabs.
"They have vehicles and cellphones, so they're a valuable resource," he said. "It's a logical piggyback."
With little accurate information about the disease's spread, scientists have been left to speculate about the possible impact of the disease in Africa.
Population density is lower than in Asia, Heymann noted, which could slow the spread. "Flu could wipe out all the chickens in a village, but there's still savannah or jungle between the villages," he said. Also, living with birds under the same roof is somewhat less common than in Asia.
But Africa also has the worst AIDS epidemic in the world; in some countries nearly a third of the adult population is infected. In the initial stages, having a depressed immune system could have a protective effect, said Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, because virulent flus set off a powerful immune reaction that can drown the lungs in fluid.
However, he added, it would probably hurt patients trying to fight off secondary immune reactions.
But HIV-infected people who managed to fight off bird flu would become ideal crucibles in which the H5N1 virus could exchange genes with other viruses, dramatically increasing the likelihood of a bird flu strain that could readily infect humans.
"If H5N1 gets into people with AIDS it would likely persist and throw off mutants left, right and center," Oxford said.
If bird flu takes root in Africa - or if has already done so, undetected - it could prove disastrous not just for that continent, but for Europe as well, experts say, since the northern migration of birds begins next month.
"The prospects are not good," said Oxford. "Soon they'll be coming back over Europe and why wouldn't it cause a great danger?" As a virologist, Oxford said that he could only assume that Nigeria was just the "red light we could see," but that there were similar bird flu problems in many other places.
He said there was still hope that intensive biosecurity measure in all countries, such as the early detection of sick birds and vaccination of poultry around bird flu zones, could contain the virus and head off a human pandemic.
"The world is attempting a great experiment: to prevent a human pandemic by controlling the factors that lead to it," he said.
As bird flu outbreaks have cropped up like wildfires in Nigeria, Azerbaijan, and Iraq over the past week - countries that are ill-prepared to battle the fast-moving virus - scientists have said that the new pattern of spread makes a worldwide human pandemic ever more likely.
The fact that the flu has reached Africa, the globe's poorest continent - already heavily burdened with AIDS and malaria - is extremely worrisome, experts said.
United Nations agencies are scrambling to form medical and veterinary response teams and to reorient a polio surveillance network they have created in Nigeria to search for avian flu.
"These are horrendous developments, whether you're a human or if you're a bird," said John Oxford, professor of virology at Queen Mary's College in London. "Everyone wondered what would happen if avian influenza came to Africa, but no one really prepared. They waited. Now it's there - and this is not the most organized continent in the world."
Most bird flu cases up to now have been in Asia. On Sunday, Indonesia said that two women died last week from bird flu, pushing the death toll from the disease there to 18, The Associated Press reported from Jakarta.
European officials announced Saturday that bird flu virus had been detected in wild birds in Italy, Greece and Bulgaria, the first time its presence has been detected in the European Union.
"The bird flu virus has arrived in Italy," Francesco Storace, the Italian health minister, said at a news conference, announcing that 17 swans had been found dead in three southern regions, Calabria, Sicily, and Puglia. Testing at the Italian National Avian Influenza Lab in Padua determined the cause to be bird flu, he said, although it was not clear if all 17 swans had been tested.
The arrival of bird flu in Italy, and in the European Union, had been predicted for some months, as the virus has marched steadily from eastern Asia, to Russia, to the Balkans and, in the last week, to West Africa. Experts say the virus is being carried by migrating birds, so all countries on their flight paths are vulnerable.
World health officials say they have not had the cooperation they need from many poor countries, even those on the flight paths of migrating birds known to carry flu.
Because of poor surveillance and rudimentary laboratory capabilities, they often received lab samples for testing weeks or months after problems begin - and for that reason, they worry that the disease is already much more widespread than they can prove.
"We are fighting the good fight, but to win it we'll need a lot more proactive surveillance and prevention," said Juan Lubroth, a senior veterinarian at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, in Rome.
There was strong evidence that bird flu took root in Nigeria "a few months ago," Lubroth said, even though it was only confirmed last week, after Nigerian veterinary officials had said last Monday that bird flu was not in the country.
The outbreak only gained official attention after 40,000 birds died on a commercial poultry farm in January. But such farms were generally the last place to become infected, Lubroth said, since they are relatively isolated from the general poultry stock.
The virus may have percolated in backyard flocks for months, he said.
"How long has it been trickling around, with five deaths here and five deaths there, and owners would possibly not be aware of the problem?" he asked.
In Azerbaijan, which reported its first cases on Friday, bird flu was only "picked up because of international pressure to come clean," Lubroth added.
There may be more unreported outbreaks in Africa and the Caucasus region, he said. "We've been repeating over and over to countries that they have to be vigilant, but in most countries, it's business as usual. They say, 'Avian influenza isn't here now. We'll deal with it when it arrives.' But then it's too late."
Maria Cheng, a spokeswoman for the World Health Organization, said the agency suspected there might be human cases of bird flu in Africa, but had no way to confirm that yet.
"We're getting a team ready to go," she said, "but we're waiting to get the invitation from Nigeria."
On the bright side, thanks to a massive infusion of cash from a World Bank donors conference on bird flu in Beijing last month, the UN food and agriculture agency now has almost $30 million to help poor countries combat the disease.
But even when scattered UN teams are in place, the disease could spread faster than they can track it, experts said. The health care systems of most African countries are so broken down that most are unable to vaccinate children or distribute AIDS drugs without Western financial aid and technical advice.
The only WHO-licensed laboratories in Africa that are sophisticated enough to sequence flu viruses are in Egypt and South Africa
Little is known about the spread of even regular seasonal flu, said Dr. Michael Perdue, a scientist with the World Health Organization influenza program in Geneva.
"We get samples that South Africa takes from neighboring countries," he said, "but we know very little about central Africa."
Also, confusion about avian flu is clearly rife in Nigeria.
On Monday, the chief of veterinary services in the Nigerian state of Kano assured the country that the epidemic, which by than had killed 60,000 chickens in mid-January, was avian cholera - a disease with different symptoms, and caused by a bacteria, not a virus.
The Nigerian government announced Saturday that the American Embassy there had promised $25 million in aid and 2,000 protective suits for use in fighting the outbreak. Northern Nigeria is one of the world's last outposts of endemic polio and a major eradication drive is going on there now.
Dr. David Heymann, who is in charge of the World Health Organization polio campaign, said the 300 Nigerian health workers now trained to spot paralysis cases in children and collect fecal samples for polio tests could be retrained to look for cases of flu and pneumonia and possibly collect nasal swabs.
"They have vehicles and cellphones, so they're a valuable resource," he said. "It's a logical piggyback."
With little accurate information about the disease's spread, scientists have been left to speculate about the possible impact of the disease in Africa.
Population density is lower than in Asia, Heymann noted, which could slow the spread. "Flu could wipe out all the chickens in a village, but there's still savannah or jungle between the villages," he said. Also, living with birds under the same roof is somewhat less common than in Asia.
But Africa also has the worst AIDS epidemic in the world; in some countries nearly a third of the adult population is infected. In the initial stages, having a depressed immune system could have a protective effect, said Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, because virulent flus set off a powerful immune reaction that can drown the lungs in fluid.
However, he added, it would probably hurt patients trying to fight off secondary immune reactions.
But HIV-infected people who managed to fight off bird flu would become ideal crucibles in which the H5N1 virus could exchange genes with other viruses, dramatically increasing the likelihood of a bird flu strain that could readily infect humans.
"If H5N1 gets into people with AIDS it would likely persist and throw off mutants left, right and center," Oxford said.
If bird flu takes root in Africa - or if has already done so, undetected - it could prove disastrous not just for that continent, but for Europe as well, experts say, since the northern migration of birds begins next month.
"The prospects are not good," said Oxford. "Soon they'll be coming back over Europe and why wouldn't it cause a great danger?" As a virologist, Oxford said that he could only assume that Nigeria was just the "red light we could see," but that there were similar bird flu problems in many other places.
He said there was still hope that intensive biosecurity measure in all countries, such as the early detection of sick birds and vaccination of poultry around bird flu zones, could contain the virus and head off a human pandemic.
"The world is attempting a great experiment: to prevent a human pandemic by controlling the factors that lead to it," he said.
As bird flu outbreaks have cropped up like wildfires in Nigeria, Azerbaijan, and Iraq over the past week - countries that are ill-prepared to battle the fast-moving virus - scientists have said that the new pattern of spread makes a worldwide human pandemic ever more likely.
The fact that the flu has reached Africa, the globe's poorest continent - already heavily burdened with AIDS and malaria - is extremely worrisome, experts said.
United Nations agencies are scrambling to form medical and veterinary response teams and to reorient a polio surveillance network they have created in Nigeria to search for avian flu.
"These are horrendous developments, whether you're a human or if you're a bird," said John Oxford, professor of virology at Queen Mary's College in London. "Everyone wondered what would happen if avian influenza came to Africa, but no one really prepared. They waited. Now it's there - and this is not the most organized continent in the world."
Most bird flu cases up to now have been in Asia. On Sunday, Indonesia said that two women died last week from bird flu, pushing the death toll from the disease there to 18, The Associated Press reported from Jakarta.
European officials announced Saturday that bird flu virus had been detected in wild birds in Italy, Greece and Bulgaria, the first time its presence has been detected in the European Union.
"The bird flu virus has arrived in Italy," Francesco Storace, the Italian health minister, said at a news conference, announcing that 17 swans had been found dead in three southern regions, Calabria, Sicily, and Puglia. Testing at the Italian National Avian Influenza Lab in Padua determined the cause to be bird flu, he said, although it was not clear if all 17 swans had been tested.
The arrival of bird flu in Italy, and in the European Union, had been predicted for some months, as the virus has marched steadily from eastern Asia, to Russia, to the Balkans and, in the last week, to West Africa. Experts say the virus is being carried by migrating birds, so all countries on their flight paths are vulnerable.
World health officials say they have not had the cooperation they need from many poor countries, even those on the flight paths of migrating birds known to carry flu.
Because of poor surveillance and rudimentary laboratory capabilities, they often received lab samples for testing weeks or months after problems begin - and for that reason, they worry that the disease is already much more widespread than they can prove.
Full Article Here: http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/12/news/flu.php
Nigeria tests children for H5N1 bird flu
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L12685354.htm
12 Feb 2006 14:28:10 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Daniel Flynn
KADUNA, Nigeria, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Nigerian health officials waited anxiously on Sunday for test results on two children feared to be the first Africans infected with the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus.
The virus broke out in early January among poultry in Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, but the H5N1 diagnosis was confirmed only last week and authorities are struggling to contain it as it spreads rapidly to farms across the north.
Health Ministry officials visited the families of two children who live near an infected farm in the northern state of Kaduna on Sunday and said the children may be moved to hospital.
"We are suspecting this might be something, but we are trying to get the real case notes," said Health Ministry official Abdulsalam Nasidi, after visiting the family.
People can catch the virus from contact with infected birds, but it cannot be spread from one human to another.
Experts fear the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain, which has killed at least 88 people in Asia and the Middle East since early 2003, may mutate into a form that can spread from human to human and cause a global flu pandemic that could kill millions.
The outbreak of H5N1 in Nigeria is the first known appearance of the virus in Africa.
Although only four farms in three northern Nigerian states have confirmation of H5N1, officials believe more than 20 farms have been hit in Kano state alone.
Farmers in three other states have also reported mass deaths of poultry, local media reported.
Farmers have received little information on how to handle the disease, and workers have been using their bare hands to dispose of thousands of infected birds, raising fears of a large number of human infections.
"This is an emergency situation and it is very important to stop the handling, trading and movement of birds," said Mohammed Belhoecine, Nigeria representative of the World Health Organisation.
Trade in live birds continued in northern cities, although sellers in Kano complained of falling trade on Sunday.
"I used to sell 50-60 birds a day but now can't sell more than four because of bird flu," said Ibrahim Maikanti, a chicken seller at Kano's Sabon Gari market.
As in most of sub-Saharan Africa, poultry are everywhere in Nigeria -- in villagers' backyards, in city streets, by the side of the road, in crowded markets, on buses. Most poultry is bought live and slaughtered at home.
The government has ordered suspect birds culled and suspect farms quarantined, but there has been little sign of a coordinated government response on the ground.
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
=
<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Slovenia Reports Bird Flu</font>
Politics: 12 February 2006, Sunday.
<A href="http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=59066">www.novinite.com</a></center>
Slovenia has reported a case of H5 bird flu in a swan, the European Commission said Sunday.
Samples have been sent to the UK for further tests to see if that is the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain, potentially dangerous to humans.</b>
A day earlier, the virus was confirmed in Bulgaria and Greece, and also hit into West Europe.
The H5N1 was found in wild birds in Italy's Sicily, Calabria and Apulia.
But Italian authorities did not immediately take any precautions at the Winter Olympic Games in Turin, world media say.
"They will let us know if they want us to give specific information to the athletes," Giuseppe Gattino, spokesman for the Games organizing committee, has said referring to regional health authorities in Piedmont.
<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Slovenia Reports Bird Flu</font>
Politics: 12 February 2006, Sunday.
<A href="http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=59066">www.novinite.com</a></center>
Slovenia has reported a case of H5 bird flu in a swan, the European Commission said Sunday.
Samples have been sent to the UK for further tests to see if that is the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain, potentially dangerous to humans.</b>
A day earlier, the virus was confirmed in Bulgaria and Greece, and also hit into West Europe.
The H5N1 was found in wild birds in Italy's Sicily, Calabria and Apulia.
But Italian authorities did not immediately take any precautions at the Winter Olympic Games in Turin, world media say.
"They will let us know if they want us to give specific information to the athletes," Giuseppe Gattino, spokesman for the Games organizing committee, has said referring to regional health authorities in Piedmont.
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
=
<B><center>12 February 2006 2354 hrs
<font size=+1 color=brown>Europe scrambling to contain outbreaks of bird flu </font>
<A href="http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/192846/1/.html">www.channelnewsasia.com</a></center>
ROME : European officials are scrambling to contain outbreaks of bird flu after cases of the deadly H5N1 strain of the viral disease were for the first time confirmed in EU members Greece and Italy as well as in Bulgaria.
Italian health officials held a crisis meeting Sunday after the discovery of H5N1 in southern Italy. </b>
The meeting was chaired by Health Minister Francesco Storace and brought together health officials from Puglia, Calabria and Sicily -- the southern regions where the virus was found in migrating swans.
The health official for Puglia, Alberto Tedesco, told the meeting that strict control measures were already in place, ANSA news agency reported.
Another expert attending the meeting, Antonio Limone, said the situation was "under control" in agricultural zones and on the markets.
Storace said Saturday that the highly pathogenic strain, responsible for the deaths of some 90 people, mainly in Asia, had been found in a total of 21 dead swans, five of them with a virulent form.
The European Commission reacted calmly to the news that the virus had for the first time crossed into the 25-member bloc, after having previously infected birds as close as Romania and killed four people in Turkey.
Storace tried to calm fears by saying that no one had caught the virus directly from wild birds.
But hospitals in Sicily said they would test patients showing flu symptoms to determine the type of infection.
Five chickens found dead near the Sicilian town of Caltanissetta were undergoing tests.
In a bid to calm possible consumer fears Italian poultry lobby officials said their "products are undergoing the most severe tests in Europe".
Greek poultry farmers also stressed that bird flu detected near the northern city of Salonika Saturday among three wild swans "does not concern farm birds."
But authorities and ornithologists fear that more birds may be infected with the lethal avian flu after swans fleeing an exceptionally severe European winter were found dead on the territory.
A Greek official on Saturday called on citizens not to panic but to observe simple health precautions.
Yannis Tsougrakis of the Salonika region's Ornithological Union told AFP that the number of swans in the Evros (Meric in Turkey) river delta, Greece's largest waterbody on the northeastern border with Turkey, had risen from 830 in mid-January to 11,000 at the end of the month.
"After the unexpected arrival of waterbirds -- the main carriers of the virus -- fleeing the recent cold snap in northern Europe, it was more than likely that the H5N1 virus would be detected in Greece," he said, predicting a rise of the caseload.
But he also warned against dramatizing "as we have dead swans because of the cold and lack of food every year".
Striking a reassuring note ornithologist Thodoris Kominos said that "few people currently live near the waterbodies so the risk of infection is small."
Birds which arrived in Greece over the past weeks are not part of the spring migration.
More than 200,000 waterbirds spend the winter in Greece but hundreds of thousands fly over the country during the spring and autumn migration.
Bulgaria which wants to join the European Union next year said it was taking all precautionary measures to protect its people from an outbreak of bird flu after an EU reference laboratory Saturday confirmed H5N1 in a wild swan found in the northwest of the country.
- AFP/ir
<B><center>12 February 2006 2354 hrs
<font size=+1 color=brown>Europe scrambling to contain outbreaks of bird flu </font>
<A href="http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/192846/1/.html">www.channelnewsasia.com</a></center>
ROME : European officials are scrambling to contain outbreaks of bird flu after cases of the deadly H5N1 strain of the viral disease were for the first time confirmed in EU members Greece and Italy as well as in Bulgaria.
Italian health officials held a crisis meeting Sunday after the discovery of H5N1 in southern Italy. </b>
The meeting was chaired by Health Minister Francesco Storace and brought together health officials from Puglia, Calabria and Sicily -- the southern regions where the virus was found in migrating swans.
The health official for Puglia, Alberto Tedesco, told the meeting that strict control measures were already in place, ANSA news agency reported.
Another expert attending the meeting, Antonio Limone, said the situation was "under control" in agricultural zones and on the markets.
Storace said Saturday that the highly pathogenic strain, responsible for the deaths of some 90 people, mainly in Asia, had been found in a total of 21 dead swans, five of them with a virulent form.
The European Commission reacted calmly to the news that the virus had for the first time crossed into the 25-member bloc, after having previously infected birds as close as Romania and killed four people in Turkey.
Storace tried to calm fears by saying that no one had caught the virus directly from wild birds.
But hospitals in Sicily said they would test patients showing flu symptoms to determine the type of infection.
Five chickens found dead near the Sicilian town of Caltanissetta were undergoing tests.
In a bid to calm possible consumer fears Italian poultry lobby officials said their "products are undergoing the most severe tests in Europe".
Greek poultry farmers also stressed that bird flu detected near the northern city of Salonika Saturday among three wild swans "does not concern farm birds."
But authorities and ornithologists fear that more birds may be infected with the lethal avian flu after swans fleeing an exceptionally severe European winter were found dead on the territory.
A Greek official on Saturday called on citizens not to panic but to observe simple health precautions.
Yannis Tsougrakis of the Salonika region's Ornithological Union told AFP that the number of swans in the Evros (Meric in Turkey) river delta, Greece's largest waterbody on the northeastern border with Turkey, had risen from 830 in mid-January to 11,000 at the end of the month.
"After the unexpected arrival of waterbirds -- the main carriers of the virus -- fleeing the recent cold snap in northern Europe, it was more than likely that the H5N1 virus would be detected in Greece," he said, predicting a rise of the caseload.
But he also warned against dramatizing "as we have dead swans because of the cold and lack of food every year".
Striking a reassuring note ornithologist Thodoris Kominos said that "few people currently live near the waterbodies so the risk of infection is small."
Birds which arrived in Greece over the past weeks are not part of the spring migration.
More than 200,000 waterbirds spend the winter in Greece but hundreds of thousands fly over the country during the spring and autumn migration.
Bulgaria which wants to join the European Union next year said it was taking all precautionary measures to protect its people from an outbreak of bird flu after an EU reference laboratory Saturday confirmed H5N1 in a wild swan found in the northwest of the country.
- AFP/ir
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
=
<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Bird flu spreads to Western Europe, increasing pandemic threat</font>
Published: Sunday, February 12, 2006
<A href="http://www.saukvalley.com/news/300065996057069.bsp">www.saukvalley.com</a></center>
ROME (AP) — Bird flu has reached Western Europe, with Italy and Greece announcing Saturday they had detected the H5N1 strain of the virus in dead swans.
The announcement that the disease was detected in five swans in southern Italy came a day after the opening of the Winter Games in Turin, several hundred miles to the north. Italian officials said the virus had only affected wild birds and posed no immediate risk to people. </b>
The European Union said the deadly strain, which has infected at least 166 people and killed 88, most in Asia, also had been confirmed in swans in Bulgaria.
No human infections were reported in the three countries, but the outbreak raised concerns that the spread of the disease could increase chances for it to mutate into a form easily transmissible among humans, who generally catch the disease from domestic poultry.
"It's a relatively safe situation for human health; less so for animal health," Italian Health Minister Francesco Storace said.
Also Saturday, authorities in Nigeria said they were investigating whether the deadly strain, which was discovered in the country last week, had spread to humans after at least two children were reported ill.
The U.N.'s chief bird flu expert said the spread of bird flu, which has been ravaging poultry stocks across Asia since 2003, increased the chance that the virus would mutate into a form transmitted between humans and set off a pandemic. Most human deaths from the disease so far have been linked to contact with infected birds.
"We have got bird flu now in southeast Asia, central Asia, eastern Europe, and west Africa," Dr. David Nabarro said, before the Greek and Italian announcements. "Compared with eight months ago, this is a major extension of the avian influenza epidemic."
<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Bird flu spreads to Western Europe, increasing pandemic threat</font>
Published: Sunday, February 12, 2006
<A href="http://www.saukvalley.com/news/300065996057069.bsp">www.saukvalley.com</a></center>
ROME (AP) — Bird flu has reached Western Europe, with Italy and Greece announcing Saturday they had detected the H5N1 strain of the virus in dead swans.
The announcement that the disease was detected in five swans in southern Italy came a day after the opening of the Winter Games in Turin, several hundred miles to the north. Italian officials said the virus had only affected wild birds and posed no immediate risk to people. </b>
The European Union said the deadly strain, which has infected at least 166 people and killed 88, most in Asia, also had been confirmed in swans in Bulgaria.
No human infections were reported in the three countries, but the outbreak raised concerns that the spread of the disease could increase chances for it to mutate into a form easily transmissible among humans, who generally catch the disease from domestic poultry.
"It's a relatively safe situation for human health; less so for animal health," Italian Health Minister Francesco Storace said.
Also Saturday, authorities in Nigeria said they were investigating whether the deadly strain, which was discovered in the country last week, had spread to humans after at least two children were reported ill.
The U.N.'s chief bird flu expert said the spread of bird flu, which has been ravaging poultry stocks across Asia since 2003, increased the chance that the virus would mutate into a form transmitted between humans and set off a pandemic. Most human deaths from the disease so far have been linked to contact with infected birds.
"We have got bird flu now in southeast Asia, central Asia, eastern Europe, and west Africa," Dr. David Nabarro said, before the Greek and Italian announcements. "Compared with eight months ago, this is a major extension of the avian influenza epidemic."
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
=
<B><center>12 February 2006 16:01:10 GMT
<font size=+1 color=blue>Italy try to halt bird flu spread</font>
<A href="http://news.viewlondon.co.uk/Italy_try_to_halt_bird_flu_spread_15155041.html">news.viewlondon.co.uk</a></center>
Health officials in Italy have announced new emergency measures after bird flu was found in wild swans yesterday.
The virus, which was found in swans in the regions of Sicily, Calabria and Puglia, was confirmed as Italy's first discovery of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu.</b>
The Italian health minister said that there would now be a two-mile protection zone around the sites where the virus was found.
Domestic birds within the protection zone will be tested for bird flu, as well as poultry that have had contact with the domestic birds.
The latest findings have raised fears that bird flu is spreading westwards across the globe.
The discovery came on the same day that a British laboratory found that wild swans in Greece and Bulgaria also have the virus.
Greek officials have now taken similar steps to limit the spread of the disease, after dead swans were found near Thessaloniki.
At least 90 people have been killed by the H5N1 strain of bird flu since early 2003, mostly in south-east Asia.
Yesterday a hospital spokesman confirmed that two Indonesian women had died of bird flu, after tests were carried out by the World Health Organisation.
The women, aged 22 and 27, both tested positive for the deadly strain of the virus, taking Indonesia's bird flu death toll to 18.
<B><center>12 February 2006 16:01:10 GMT
<font size=+1 color=blue>Italy try to halt bird flu spread</font>
<A href="http://news.viewlondon.co.uk/Italy_try_to_halt_bird_flu_spread_15155041.html">news.viewlondon.co.uk</a></center>
Health officials in Italy have announced new emergency measures after bird flu was found in wild swans yesterday.
The virus, which was found in swans in the regions of Sicily, Calabria and Puglia, was confirmed as Italy's first discovery of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu.</b>
The Italian health minister said that there would now be a two-mile protection zone around the sites where the virus was found.
Domestic birds within the protection zone will be tested for bird flu, as well as poultry that have had contact with the domestic birds.
The latest findings have raised fears that bird flu is spreading westwards across the globe.
The discovery came on the same day that a British laboratory found that wild swans in Greece and Bulgaria also have the virus.
Greek officials have now taken similar steps to limit the spread of the disease, after dead swans were found near Thessaloniki.
At least 90 people have been killed by the H5N1 strain of bird flu since early 2003, mostly in south-east Asia.
Yesterday a hospital spokesman confirmed that two Indonesian women had died of bird flu, after tests were carried out by the World Health Organisation.
The women, aged 22 and 27, both tested positive for the deadly strain of the virus, taking Indonesia's bird flu death toll to 18.
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
=
<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>UN Expert Fears Bird Flu Pandemic among Humans</font>
Politics: 11 February 2006, Saturday.
<A href="http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=59028">www.novinite.com</a></center>
The United Nations expert on bird flu, Dr.David Nabarro, has spoken of his fear that a bird flu mutation might sparkle a pandemic among humans.</b>
Nabarro has said that the rapid spreading of the virus in the world was increasing the chance of mutations, eventually resulting in sustained human-to-human transmission.
The expert said there was no evidence yet of any change in the virus, but that veterinary serviced had to remain on high alert.
"Unfortunately, we cannot tell when the mutation might happen, or where it might happen, or how unpleasant the mutant virus will turn out to be," Nabarro said in an interview.
<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>UN Expert Fears Bird Flu Pandemic among Humans</font>
Politics: 11 February 2006, Saturday.
<A href="http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=59028">www.novinite.com</a></center>
The United Nations expert on bird flu, Dr.David Nabarro, has spoken of his fear that a bird flu mutation might sparkle a pandemic among humans.</b>
Nabarro has said that the rapid spreading of the virus in the world was increasing the chance of mutations, eventually resulting in sustained human-to-human transmission.
The expert said there was no evidence yet of any change in the virus, but that veterinary serviced had to remain on high alert.
"Unfortunately, we cannot tell when the mutation might happen, or where it might happen, or how unpleasant the mutant virus will turn out to be," Nabarro said in an interview.
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
=
<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Bird Flu Jumped to Humans?</font>
February 11, 2006 -
<A href="http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?section=nation_world&id=3897571">abclocal.go.com</a></center>
Health officials in Nigeria are trying to determine whether the deadly H-5-N-One bird flu strain has jumped to humans.
Several people are reported ill, and officials say one of two of the cases could be due to bird flu. </b>
The H-5-N-1 strain was reported in Africa for the first time last week, but no human cases have been discovered.
In Italy, the health minister says the strain has been detected in swans, the first cases reported in Italy.
Indonesia today reported its eighteenth bird flu death, while China has reported eight deaths.
The World Health Organization says bird flu has killed at least 88 people in Asia and Turkey since 2003.
<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Bird Flu Jumped to Humans?</font>
February 11, 2006 -
<A href="http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?section=nation_world&id=3897571">abclocal.go.com</a></center>
Health officials in Nigeria are trying to determine whether the deadly H-5-N-One bird flu strain has jumped to humans.
Several people are reported ill, and officials say one of two of the cases could be due to bird flu. </b>
The H-5-N-1 strain was reported in Africa for the first time last week, but no human cases have been discovered.
In Italy, the health minister says the strain has been detected in swans, the first cases reported in Italy.
Indonesia today reported its eighteenth bird flu death, while China has reported eight deaths.
The World Health Organization says bird flu has killed at least 88 people in Asia and Turkey since 2003.
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
=
<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Spread of Bird Flu Boosts Pandemic Chances</font>
Last Updated:
02-11-06 at 11:32AM
<A href="http://www.kfmb.com/stories/story.38530.html">www.kfmb.com</a></center>
The spread of bird flu from Asia to eastern Europe and now west Africa has increased the chance the virus will mutate and set off a pandemic, the U.N. bird flu chief said.
Dr. David Nabarro said there is no evidence yet of any change in the virus, which has killed at least 88 people since 2003.</b>
Almost all the deaths have been linked to contact with infected poultry, but experts fear the virus could mutate into a form that spreads easily among humans, setting off a pandemic.
"Unfortunately, we cannot tell when the mutation might happen, or where it might happen, or how unpleasant the mutant virus will turn out to be," he said in an interview. "Nevertheless, we must remain on high alert for the possibility of sustained human-to-human virus transmission and of a pandemic starting at any time."
Nabarro said the arrival of bird flu in Nigeria should be "a strong wake-up call" to all countries to ensure that their veterinary services are on alert and report any instances of birds or poultry dying, and that health services quickly identify unexpected clusters of unexpected disease that could represent the start of a pandemic.
"We have got bird flu now in southeast Asia, central Asia, eastern Europe, and west Africa," he said. "Compared with eight months ago, this is a major extension of the avian influenza epidemic."
Nabarro said control measures put in place by countries have helped to contain the spread but bird flu is still expanding across the world "putting at risk the health of people who are living intimately with poultry and also adding to the overall load of the H5N1 virus."
He said it is the increase in the quantity of the virus in the world today that has boosted the overall chance of mutations, including a mutation that could cause a disease which could then spread through the human population.
"That's why we get so concerned about the spread of the virus, because we want to do everything we can to reduce the opportunity for mutation," Nabarro said.
He said one of the urgent needs is to establish how avian influenza reached west Africa.
"The likely means is by migrating wild birds traveling from north to south, and one of the main migratory routes passes from Siberia through the Black Sea area, including Crimea and on to west Africa," Nabarro said. "The alternative is that the virus arrived in birds that are being traded _ and if that is the case they would have been smuggled as Nigeria had banned import of birds from avian influenza affected areas during the last two years."
U.N. experts have just received the genetic sequence of virus samples taken from the farm in Kaduna where the H5N1 strain of bird flu was discovered, he said.
Over the next few days, he said, the World Organization for Animal Health and the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization will try to match that sequence with the genetic sequence of viruses from birds in other countries affected by bird flu, he said.
"If it turns out that H5N1 was carried to west Africa by migratory birds, we need to be prepared for the possibility that within the next six months it could be brought back to the northern hemisphere _ but perhaps along a different flyway," Nabarro said.
"And that could mean that countries in Western Europe and North American should be bracing themselves for the possible introduction of H5N1 avian influenza," he said.
Nabarro said the challenge facing governments throughout Africa "will be to pick up instances early of suspected bird flu, quarantine the affected farms and communities so that the birds are not moved in or out, and then to stamp out the infection through selective culling."
The single most important thing governments can do, he said, is to put a total ban on bird movements in any area where bird flu is suspected.
With several outbreaks of bird flu now confirmed in Nigeria, Nabarro said, there is a need for special vigilance in other countries on the west African coast including Togo, Ghana, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
Nabarro said he was delighted that the Nigerian government will pay compensation for birds killed, "but unfortunately that never truly replaces the lost chicken."
"The sadness is that this will directly affect poor people for whom a chicken is a short-term savings account with an excellent rate of interest, and they depend on their birds for getting cash at times of need," he said.
Nabarro also praised the action being taken by Nigeria's Ministry of Agriculture, "which appears to be firm and rapid," but he expressed concern that the scale of the problem could overwhelm authorities.
"For that reason, rapid international assistance to Nigeria and support to neighboring countries is critical and the decision by WHO and FAO to provide urgent extensive support is the right one," Nabarro said.
<B><font size=+1 color=green><center>Spread of Bird Flu Boosts Pandemic Chances</font>
Last Updated:
02-11-06 at 11:32AM
<A href="http://www.kfmb.com/stories/story.38530.html">www.kfmb.com</a></center>
The spread of bird flu from Asia to eastern Europe and now west Africa has increased the chance the virus will mutate and set off a pandemic, the U.N. bird flu chief said.
Dr. David Nabarro said there is no evidence yet of any change in the virus, which has killed at least 88 people since 2003.</b>
Almost all the deaths have been linked to contact with infected poultry, but experts fear the virus could mutate into a form that spreads easily among humans, setting off a pandemic.
"Unfortunately, we cannot tell when the mutation might happen, or where it might happen, or how unpleasant the mutant virus will turn out to be," he said in an interview. "Nevertheless, we must remain on high alert for the possibility of sustained human-to-human virus transmission and of a pandemic starting at any time."
Nabarro said the arrival of bird flu in Nigeria should be "a strong wake-up call" to all countries to ensure that their veterinary services are on alert and report any instances of birds or poultry dying, and that health services quickly identify unexpected clusters of unexpected disease that could represent the start of a pandemic.
"We have got bird flu now in southeast Asia, central Asia, eastern Europe, and west Africa," he said. "Compared with eight months ago, this is a major extension of the avian influenza epidemic."
Nabarro said control measures put in place by countries have helped to contain the spread but bird flu is still expanding across the world "putting at risk the health of people who are living intimately with poultry and also adding to the overall load of the H5N1 virus."
He said it is the increase in the quantity of the virus in the world today that has boosted the overall chance of mutations, including a mutation that could cause a disease which could then spread through the human population.
"That's why we get so concerned about the spread of the virus, because we want to do everything we can to reduce the opportunity for mutation," Nabarro said.
He said one of the urgent needs is to establish how avian influenza reached west Africa.
"The likely means is by migrating wild birds traveling from north to south, and one of the main migratory routes passes from Siberia through the Black Sea area, including Crimea and on to west Africa," Nabarro said. "The alternative is that the virus arrived in birds that are being traded _ and if that is the case they would have been smuggled as Nigeria had banned import of birds from avian influenza affected areas during the last two years."
U.N. experts have just received the genetic sequence of virus samples taken from the farm in Kaduna where the H5N1 strain of bird flu was discovered, he said.
Over the next few days, he said, the World Organization for Animal Health and the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization will try to match that sequence with the genetic sequence of viruses from birds in other countries affected by bird flu, he said.
"If it turns out that H5N1 was carried to west Africa by migratory birds, we need to be prepared for the possibility that within the next six months it could be brought back to the northern hemisphere _ but perhaps along a different flyway," Nabarro said.
"And that could mean that countries in Western Europe and North American should be bracing themselves for the possible introduction of H5N1 avian influenza," he said.
Nabarro said the challenge facing governments throughout Africa "will be to pick up instances early of suspected bird flu, quarantine the affected farms and communities so that the birds are not moved in or out, and then to stamp out the infection through selective culling."
The single most important thing governments can do, he said, is to put a total ban on bird movements in any area where bird flu is suspected.
With several outbreaks of bird flu now confirmed in Nigeria, Nabarro said, there is a need for special vigilance in other countries on the west African coast including Togo, Ghana, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
Nabarro said he was delighted that the Nigerian government will pay compensation for birds killed, "but unfortunately that never truly replaces the lost chicken."
"The sadness is that this will directly affect poor people for whom a chicken is a short-term savings account with an excellent rate of interest, and they depend on their birds for getting cash at times of need," he said.
Nabarro also praised the action being taken by Nigeria's Ministry of Agriculture, "which appears to be firm and rapid," but he expressed concern that the scale of the problem could overwhelm authorities.
"For that reason, rapid international assistance to Nigeria and support to neighboring countries is critical and the decision by WHO and FAO to provide urgent extensive support is the right one," Nabarro said.
The Flying Dutchman
Deceased
=
<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>G8 powers warn of pandemic as bird flu spreads</font>
(AFP)
12 February 2006
<A href="http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/theworld/2006/February/theworld_February358.xml§ion=theworld">www.khaleejtimes.com</a></center>
MOSCOW - The Group of Eight industrial powers warned Saturday of the risk of a bird flu pandemic, just hours before news broke that the deadly H5N1 virus had spread to Italy, Greece and Bulgaria.
“We acknowledge the risk of a possible avian flu pandemic and its potential economic and financial impacts,” G8 members Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States said in a statement after talks here.</b>
Shortly after the statement was released, Italy, Greece and Bulgaria announced that tests had confirmed the presence of the deadly H5N1 virus. The Italian and Greek cases were the first identified within the European Union.
The disease, which has killed nearly 90 people, most in Asia, was found in wild swans in all three countries, according to information from the countries’ authorities and from the European Commission.
Detection of the virus within the European Union continues the alarmingly rapid spread of the disease, which was confirmed last week to have crossed into Africa for the first time.
The disease has spread to at least four poultry farms in Nigeria and many other suspected outbreaks have been reported.
“We call on the donor community to provide financial support to poor countries fighting the epidemic,” said the G8 statement issued after finance ministers wrapped up talks in a heavily guarded Moscow hotel.
Finance ministers here welcomed the results of a Beijing donors’ conference last month, which won funding commitments from more than 90 countries and international organizations of 1.9 billion dollars.
They also confirmed their commitments made in Beijing.
“Donor coordination and harmonization in this area are critical,” the G8 ministerial statement said.
The spread of the disease to Africa, which is ill-equipped to fight disease, has led to fears bird flu may get out of control, infecting more humans and providing more opportunities for the virus to mutate into a form able to jump from human to human.
“Some of the poorest developing countries lack the resources, for example, to pay farmers adequately to get rid of sick chickens,” World Bank president Paul Wolfowitz told reporters here.
“It is very much in the interest of the richest countries to help finance preventative measures in the poorer countries,” he said.
According to a report by the Asian Development Bank, a human pandemic caused by a mutation of the bird flu virus and affecting 20 percent of people in the region would cost one hundred billion dollars a year in Asia and lower trade in goods and services by 14 percent.
The H5N1 strain of bird flu found in Nigerian poultry is the same virus previously detected in Turkey, Europe, China and Southeast Asia, which suggests it was brought to west Africa by migrant birds, an expert with the World Organisation for Animal Health said Friday.
Around 100,000 chickens have died in the northern Nigerian state of Kano from the H5N1 strain of avian influenza, according to a local source.
The strain can be picked up by humans in close proximity to diseased birds, and can be lethal, but in its present form cannot be transmitted from person to person.
In Indonesia, hospital staff said a 27-year-old Indonesian woman who tested positive for bird flu had died. On Thursday, a 22-year-old woman died after local tests showed she had the virus.
Samples from the two women have been sent to a Hong Kong laboratory accredited by the World Health Organisation for confirmation. If confirmed, they would be Indonesia’s 17th and 18th fatalities from H5N1.
<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>G8 powers warn of pandemic as bird flu spreads</font>
(AFP)
12 February 2006
<A href="http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/theworld/2006/February/theworld_February358.xml§ion=theworld">www.khaleejtimes.com</a></center>
MOSCOW - The Group of Eight industrial powers warned Saturday of the risk of a bird flu pandemic, just hours before news broke that the deadly H5N1 virus had spread to Italy, Greece and Bulgaria.
“We acknowledge the risk of a possible avian flu pandemic and its potential economic and financial impacts,” G8 members Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States said in a statement after talks here.</b>
Shortly after the statement was released, Italy, Greece and Bulgaria announced that tests had confirmed the presence of the deadly H5N1 virus. The Italian and Greek cases were the first identified within the European Union.
The disease, which has killed nearly 90 people, most in Asia, was found in wild swans in all three countries, according to information from the countries’ authorities and from the European Commission.
Detection of the virus within the European Union continues the alarmingly rapid spread of the disease, which was confirmed last week to have crossed into Africa for the first time.
The disease has spread to at least four poultry farms in Nigeria and many other suspected outbreaks have been reported.
“We call on the donor community to provide financial support to poor countries fighting the epidemic,” said the G8 statement issued after finance ministers wrapped up talks in a heavily guarded Moscow hotel.
Finance ministers here welcomed the results of a Beijing donors’ conference last month, which won funding commitments from more than 90 countries and international organizations of 1.9 billion dollars.
They also confirmed their commitments made in Beijing.
“Donor coordination and harmonization in this area are critical,” the G8 ministerial statement said.
The spread of the disease to Africa, which is ill-equipped to fight disease, has led to fears bird flu may get out of control, infecting more humans and providing more opportunities for the virus to mutate into a form able to jump from human to human.
“Some of the poorest developing countries lack the resources, for example, to pay farmers adequately to get rid of sick chickens,” World Bank president Paul Wolfowitz told reporters here.
“It is very much in the interest of the richest countries to help finance preventative measures in the poorer countries,” he said.
According to a report by the Asian Development Bank, a human pandemic caused by a mutation of the bird flu virus and affecting 20 percent of people in the region would cost one hundred billion dollars a year in Asia and lower trade in goods and services by 14 percent.
The H5N1 strain of bird flu found in Nigerian poultry is the same virus previously detected in Turkey, Europe, China and Southeast Asia, which suggests it was brought to west Africa by migrant birds, an expert with the World Organisation for Animal Health said Friday.
Around 100,000 chickens have died in the northern Nigerian state of Kano from the H5N1 strain of avian influenza, according to a local source.
The strain can be picked up by humans in close proximity to diseased birds, and can be lethal, but in its present form cannot be transmitted from person to person.
In Indonesia, hospital staff said a 27-year-old Indonesian woman who tested positive for bird flu had died. On Thursday, a 22-year-old woman died after local tests showed she had the virus.
Samples from the two women have been sent to a Hong Kong laboratory accredited by the World Health Organisation for confirmation. If confirmed, they would be Indonesia’s 17th and 18th fatalities from H5N1.
Doomer Doug
Deceased
Yep, this is just another in a sequence of DOTS I have been waiting for. The bird flu has spread, in about 8 months, all the way from Siberia, China, southeast Asia, Indonesia, through Central Asia, Russia, Eastern and now Western Europe, and now it is in Africa. Yep, it is following the CLASSIC PANDEMIC PATTERN. Right down to dotting the i's.
Spring starts in the northern hemisphere in about 40 days, March 20. I believe we will be allowed to forget bird flu by TPTB since it will be confined to the Southern Hemisphere where winter will now start. WHEN WINTER STARTS AGAIN IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, SAY BY JANUARY 2007, WE WILL HAVE OUR GLOBAL PANDEMIC. It is a process that will take about 18 months to go critical mass.
I do suggest here at TB2K we keep a hard copy record of all these posts. For the survivors I mean.
It is going to get so bad on this planet during the rest of the year 2006. I can just feel the chaos in my spirit.
Africa has no public health infrastructure. The bird flu will mix with AIDS, Ebola, Hemmoragic fever, the humid, hot environment and give us our pandemic.
Spring starts in the northern hemisphere in about 40 days, March 20. I believe we will be allowed to forget bird flu by TPTB since it will be confined to the Southern Hemisphere where winter will now start. WHEN WINTER STARTS AGAIN IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, SAY BY JANUARY 2007, WE WILL HAVE OUR GLOBAL PANDEMIC. It is a process that will take about 18 months to go critical mass.
I do suggest here at TB2K we keep a hard copy record of all these posts. For the survivors I mean.
It is going to get so bad on this planet during the rest of the year 2006. I can just feel the chaos in my spirit. Africa has no public health infrastructure. The bird flu will mix with AIDS, Ebola, Hemmoragic fever, the humid, hot environment and give us our pandemic.
PCViking
Lutefisk Survivor
Doomer Doug said:Yep, this is just another in a sequence of DOTS I have been waiting for. The bird flu has spread, in about 8 months, all the way from Siberia, China, southeast Asia, Indonesia, through Central Asia, Russia, Eastern and now Western Europe, and now it is in Africa. Yep, it is following the CLASSIC PANDEMIC PATTERN. Right down to dotting the i's.
Spring starts in the northern hemisphere in about 40 days, March 20. I believe we will be allowed to forget bird flu by TPTB since it will be confined to the Southern Hemisphere where winter will now start. WHEN WINTER STARTS AGAIN IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, SAY BY JANUARY 2007, WE WILL HAVE OUR GLOBAL PANDEMIC. It is a process that will take about 18 months to go critical mass.
I do suggest here at TB2K we keep a hard copy record of all these posts. For the survivors I mean.
Africa has no public health infrastructure. The bird flu will mix with AIDS, Ebola, Hemmoragic fever, the humid, hot environment and give us our pandemic.
Hey DD, I see what you're saying... as much as I'de like to picture BF in the distant future, I think it's a coming attraction... more like right around the corner. This is like watching/experiencing a very slow moving disaster movie...
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New Freedom
Veteran Member
I keep seeing this quote from Dr. David Nabarro in the last two days in quite a few news articles from around the world......and I have to say that for the first time in a long time, I'm really, really concerned.....it seems like the 'alert' siren has been turned on:
"Unfortunately, we cannot tell when the mutation might happen, or where it might happen, or how unpleasant the mutant virus will turn out to be," he said in an interview. "Nevertheless, we must remain on high alert for the possibility of sustained human-to-human virus transmission and of a pandemic starting at any time."
"Unfortunately, we cannot tell when the mutation might happen, or where it might happen, or how unpleasant the mutant virus will turn out to be," he said in an interview. "Nevertheless, we must remain on high alert for the possibility of sustained human-to-human virus transmission and of a pandemic starting at any time."
Yup. I find I can't even drum up any concern about Iran or terrorists or anything else at this point - I think BF is going to render all our petty human issues very moot. Mother Nature is going to take over and put the human species back in its place, with a very universal, impersonal culling operation. She doesn't care what color you are, about your religion, sex or politics. Worse yet, so far it looks like the young are most vulnerable.
This is an equal opportunity disaster, and once it starts, it will emerge everywhere at once. Each family will be on its own, for food, water, medical care. (No healthcare workers will be going to work, since none of the hospitals have enough PPE (Personal Protection Equipment) for more than a few days, and HCW are not suicidal, nor do they want to take this virulent strain home to their families).
It's just a matter of when. Dr. Henry Niman mapped the genetic changes and location that emerged in the outbreak and deaths in Turkey and Iraq - and he'll be predicting the next change or two this week. He says it's highly predictable, and even the UN's Dr. Nabarro says we're only two genetic changes away from an uncontrollable human pandemic. The 1918 pandemic flu required 10 changes to become lethal to humans. H5N1 has now accomplished 8 of those changes. The last two steps are inevitable, and Africa could well be the petri dish where it all combines and takes off.
Get your food, water, elderberries, and non-electric preps in order. There will be no notice or announcement of the pandemic soon enough to matter.
okie medicvet
Inactive
PCViking said:Hey DD, I see what you're saying... as much as I'de like to picture BF in the distant future, I think it's a coming attraction... more like right around the corner. This is like watching/experiencing a very slow moving disaster movie...
It's like a force of nature..but not a twister that touches down,wreaks its havoc, then returns back to the clouds that spawned it, but rather like a hurricane..
where we have lots of warning..but sometimes give human vagaries, even a lot of warning isn't enough..
Doomer Doug
Deceased
The original Spanish flu of 1918 actually began in 1916 among British war injured and just gradually went around the world. The 1918 flu epidemic lasted from 1916 to 1920 or so. And the black death lasted from 1348 to 1352, although it had outbreaks for many years. My point is a global pandemic is a PROCESS and not an EVENT. The bird flu will be eventually seen as a multiyear process of which we are in the EARLY stages.
My eyes are an Africa and the mutations that will happen where the mixture of a collapsed public health infrastructure, heat, humidity, poverty, disease etc all will come together. My view is the final two mutations will happen in the heat and humidity of Africa over the next six months. Or perhaps in Indonesia, which has fallen off the radar screen.
At any rate, the bird flu is morphing into a planet wide, species effecting event.
My eyes are an Africa and the mutations that will happen where the mixture of a collapsed public health infrastructure, heat, humidity, poverty, disease etc all will come together. My view is the final two mutations will happen in the heat and humidity of Africa over the next six months. Or perhaps in Indonesia, which has fallen off the radar screen.
At any rate, the bird flu is morphing into a planet wide, species effecting event.
Kim99
Veteran Member
I guess now we can add Iran and Austria, too......
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/hea...hp?newsid=37604
Where Has Bird Flu Been Found So Far, Globally?
Main Category: Flu/Bird Flu/SARS News
Article Date: 12 Feb 2006 - 14:00pm (UK)
Since 2003 Bird flu (avian flu) has spread from VietNam all the way across the globe to Nigeria (west Africa) and Italy (well into the European Union). Over 150 million birds have died. The number of human deaths is also going up, about 90 people have so far died as a result of bird flu infection.
Bird flu has been detected in the following countries since 2003 (alphabetical order):
-- Bulgaria
-- Cambodia
-- China
-- Croatia
-- Cyprus
-- Greece
-- Indonesia
-- Iraq
-- Italy
-- Japan
-- Kazakhstan
-- Kuwait
-- Laos
-- Malaysia
-- Mongolia
-- Nigeria
-- Romania
-- Russia
-- South Korea
-- Thailand
-- Turkey
-- UK (Pet parrot kept in quarantine at airport)
-- Ukraine
-- VietNam
(Whether or not it is prevalent in North Korea is hard to say as the government there has complete control over all information)
About half of all humans who have been infected with the H5N1 bird flu virus strain, the most lethal one, have died. Most of these deaths have taken place in south east Asia. It is likely to have a much lower death rate in developed countries, where health care services are better and swifter. Some antiviral drugs (e.g. Tamiflu), if administered to the patient within three days of symptoms appearing, is very effective in achieving a complete recovery. It is crucial that infected patients are treated swiftly.
Since the new year, there have been some human deaths in Turkey, raising concerns that perhaps the virus is starting to transmit among humans more easily. Authorities there, after extensive investigation, found that all deaths were among patients who had had constant contact with infected birds (meaning they got it from birds, not other humans).
The more humans the virus infects, the greater the chances are that it will mutate and become a human transmissible one (infect from human-to-human). If the H5N1 virus strain infects a human who has the normal flu it then has the opportunity to exchange genetic information with the human flu virus. It could pick up, from the human flu virus, the ability to spread among humans. Hopefully, when it does exchange genetic information, it may lose some of its present virulence (potency) - something experts think it very likely.
Countries with human cases of bird flu virus
Cambodia
Cases 4 Deaths 4
China
Cases 10 Deaths 7
Indonesia
Cases 25 Deaths 18
Iraq
Cases 1 Deaths 1
Thailand
Cases 22 Deaths 14
Turkey
Cases 21 Deaths 4
Vietnam
Cases 93 Deaths 42
Total
Cases 176 Deaths 90
(World Health Organisation)
Written by: Christian Nordqvist
Editor: Medical News Today
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/hea...hp?newsid=37604
Where Has Bird Flu Been Found So Far, Globally?
Main Category: Flu/Bird Flu/SARS News
Article Date: 12 Feb 2006 - 14:00pm (UK)
Since 2003 Bird flu (avian flu) has spread from VietNam all the way across the globe to Nigeria (west Africa) and Italy (well into the European Union). Over 150 million birds have died. The number of human deaths is also going up, about 90 people have so far died as a result of bird flu infection.
Bird flu has been detected in the following countries since 2003 (alphabetical order):
-- Bulgaria
-- Cambodia
-- China
-- Croatia
-- Cyprus
-- Greece
-- Indonesia
-- Iraq
-- Italy
-- Japan
-- Kazakhstan
-- Kuwait
-- Laos
-- Malaysia
-- Mongolia
-- Nigeria
-- Romania
-- Russia
-- South Korea
-- Thailand
-- Turkey
-- UK (Pet parrot kept in quarantine at airport)
-- Ukraine
-- VietNam
(Whether or not it is prevalent in North Korea is hard to say as the government there has complete control over all information)
About half of all humans who have been infected with the H5N1 bird flu virus strain, the most lethal one, have died. Most of these deaths have taken place in south east Asia. It is likely to have a much lower death rate in developed countries, where health care services are better and swifter. Some antiviral drugs (e.g. Tamiflu), if administered to the patient within three days of symptoms appearing, is very effective in achieving a complete recovery. It is crucial that infected patients are treated swiftly.
Since the new year, there have been some human deaths in Turkey, raising concerns that perhaps the virus is starting to transmit among humans more easily. Authorities there, after extensive investigation, found that all deaths were among patients who had had constant contact with infected birds (meaning they got it from birds, not other humans).
The more humans the virus infects, the greater the chances are that it will mutate and become a human transmissible one (infect from human-to-human). If the H5N1 virus strain infects a human who has the normal flu it then has the opportunity to exchange genetic information with the human flu virus. It could pick up, from the human flu virus, the ability to spread among humans. Hopefully, when it does exchange genetic information, it may lose some of its present virulence (potency) - something experts think it very likely.
Countries with human cases of bird flu virus
Cambodia
Cases 4 Deaths 4
China
Cases 10 Deaths 7
Indonesia
Cases 25 Deaths 18
Iraq
Cases 1 Deaths 1
Thailand
Cases 22 Deaths 14
Turkey
Cases 21 Deaths 4
Vietnam
Cases 93 Deaths 42
Total
Cases 176 Deaths 90
(World Health Organisation)
Written by: Christian Nordqvist
Editor: Medical News Today
Perpetuity
Inactive
I'm seeing more and more about Dr. Nabarro. Here's the wikipedia info on him. Credential wise, he's packin' a bunch. Notice carefully the last paragraph, and notice that even though the WHO tried to censor him to some degree, he's still the name you tend to see the most when WHO/H5N1 are mentioned.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Nabarro
Dr. David Nabarro (born in 1949),is the current Executive Director of Sustainable Development and Healthy Environments, a department under the World Health Organization. He is also the Senior Policy Advisor to the Director General of the WHO and Head of its Crisis Management Team.
Son of Sir John David Nunes Nabarro, he attended Oundle School leaving in the summer of 1966. In a gap year between school and university, Nabarro was a Community Service Volunteer. He spent a year as the Organiser of Youth Action, York. A BBC television documentary was made about his volunteer work.
Nabarro became a qualified physician in the UK in 1973. After that, he worked in the UK's National Health Service. From 1976 to 1978, Nabarro worked as District Child Health Officer in Dhankuta District, Nepal. Later, he moved to the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and in 1982, he became Regional Manager for the Save the Children Fund in South Asia, based in the region. In 1985 he joined the Liverpool School of Medicine as a Senior lecturer in International Community Health. He moved to the British Overseas Development Organization as a Strategic Adviser for Health and Population in East Africa, based in Nairobi in 1989.
Having had a good experience with helping third world countries in the field of medical care,he then took up the post of Chief Health and Population Adviser, at the ODA London Office in 1990, and moved on to become Director of Human Development (as well as Chief Health Adviser) as ODA was transformed to the Department for International Development in 1997.
Nabarro joined WHO in January 1999, as Project Manager, Roll Back Malaria, then moved to the Office of the Director-General, as Executive Director, from March 2000. He transferred to the Sustainable Development and Healthy Environments cluster in 2003.
He was appointed Representative of the Director General for Health Action in Crises in July 2003. Since then he has been responsible for taking forward efforts to improve WHO's performance in crisis settings, with an emphasis on preparedness, response and recovery.
Nabarro was stationed in the Canal Hotel in Baghdad, Iraq, when it was bombed on the afternoon of August 19, 2003. The blast targeted the United Nations, which had used the hotel as its headquarters in Iraq since 1991.
He coordinated support for health aspects of crises response operations in Darfur, Sudan, and in countries affected by the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and Tsunami. In September 2005 was seconded from WHO and appointed Senior United Nations System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza by the Secretary-General of the United Nations, to ensure that the United Nations system makes an effective and coordinated contribution to the global effort to control the epidemic of avian influenza (or “bird flu”).
On September 29, 2005, Dr. Nabarro told the Associated Press that a global avian influenza pandemic could kill between 5 million and 150 million people worldwide. The WHO promptly downplayed the statement as "scaremongering," adding that the press should not expect Dr. Nabarro to make such claims publicly again.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Nabarro
Dr. David Nabarro (born in 1949),is the current Executive Director of Sustainable Development and Healthy Environments, a department under the World Health Organization. He is also the Senior Policy Advisor to the Director General of the WHO and Head of its Crisis Management Team.
Son of Sir John David Nunes Nabarro, he attended Oundle School leaving in the summer of 1966. In a gap year between school and university, Nabarro was a Community Service Volunteer. He spent a year as the Organiser of Youth Action, York. A BBC television documentary was made about his volunteer work.
Nabarro became a qualified physician in the UK in 1973. After that, he worked in the UK's National Health Service. From 1976 to 1978, Nabarro worked as District Child Health Officer in Dhankuta District, Nepal. Later, he moved to the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and in 1982, he became Regional Manager for the Save the Children Fund in South Asia, based in the region. In 1985 he joined the Liverpool School of Medicine as a Senior lecturer in International Community Health. He moved to the British Overseas Development Organization as a Strategic Adviser for Health and Population in East Africa, based in Nairobi in 1989.
Having had a good experience with helping third world countries in the field of medical care,he then took up the post of Chief Health and Population Adviser, at the ODA London Office in 1990, and moved on to become Director of Human Development (as well as Chief Health Adviser) as ODA was transformed to the Department for International Development in 1997.
Nabarro joined WHO in January 1999, as Project Manager, Roll Back Malaria, then moved to the Office of the Director-General, as Executive Director, from March 2000. He transferred to the Sustainable Development and Healthy Environments cluster in 2003.
He was appointed Representative of the Director General for Health Action in Crises in July 2003. Since then he has been responsible for taking forward efforts to improve WHO's performance in crisis settings, with an emphasis on preparedness, response and recovery.
Nabarro was stationed in the Canal Hotel in Baghdad, Iraq, when it was bombed on the afternoon of August 19, 2003. The blast targeted the United Nations, which had used the hotel as its headquarters in Iraq since 1991.
He coordinated support for health aspects of crises response operations in Darfur, Sudan, and in countries affected by the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and Tsunami. In September 2005 was seconded from WHO and appointed Senior United Nations System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza by the Secretary-General of the United Nations, to ensure that the United Nations system makes an effective and coordinated contribution to the global effort to control the epidemic of avian influenza (or “bird flu”).
On September 29, 2005, Dr. Nabarro told the Associated Press that a global avian influenza pandemic could kill between 5 million and 150 million people worldwide. The WHO promptly downplayed the statement as "scaremongering," adding that the press should not expect Dr. Nabarro to make such claims publicly again.
New Freedom
Veteran Member
http://capeargus.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=55&fArticleId=3111445
Bird flu in Nigeria 'more extensive than thought'
February 14, 2006
By Sapa-AP, Staff Reporter
A deadly strain of bird flu may have emerged in eight of Nigeria's 36 states, authorities say, amid concerns the virus had been spreading long before officials knew it was in Africa.
Yesterday authorities began screening workers from a northern Nigerian farm where Africa's first documented cases of the H5N1 strain were confirmed last week following the deaths of thousands of birds.
But authorities lacked testing equipment and workers appeared reluctant to come forward.
Experts from the US-based Centres for Disease Control and Prevention arrived in Nigeria on Sunday with equipment and protective clothing for 200 Nigerian health officials who will kill birds in the north of the country, Agriculture Minister Adamu Bello said.
Health Minister Eyitayo Lambo told reporters the five new states with suspected H5N1 were: Abuja, where the capital is located; Katsina; Nasarawa; Yobe; and Jigawa.
If the cases are confirmed, they would bring the number of states affected to eight. It has been confirmed in three northern states - Kaduna, Kano and Plateau.
Professor Barry Schoub, the director of the SA National Institute of Communicable diseases, said the virus had probably spread over a much more extensive area in Nigeria and that he expected to see large-scale destruction of birds there.
"The Nigeria case is very, very concerning because the spread in poultry appears to have been going on for quite some time and may well be more extensive," Schoub told reporters in Johannesburg.
He said destroying birds was the most effective way to stop the spread of the infection in developing countries which did not have facilities such as those in Europe, where poultry is being kept indoors to avoid contact with water infected by migrating wild birds.
H5N1 has killed at least 88 people, mostly in Asia, since 2003, but no human cases have been confirmed in Africa so far.
Schoub also said there was preliminary evidence to show that there was some resistance to the only antiviral drug available to combat bird flu, Tamiflu.
"This resistance is very rare and quite localised, but it is a worry," Schoub said.
A number of countries around the world have begun stockpiling the drug for use in the event of an outbreak of H5N1 infection among humans but South Africa is yet to register the drug for use here. - Sapa-AP, Staff Reporter
Bird flu in Nigeria 'more extensive than thought'
February 14, 2006
By Sapa-AP, Staff Reporter
A deadly strain of bird flu may have emerged in eight of Nigeria's 36 states, authorities say, amid concerns the virus had been spreading long before officials knew it was in Africa.
Yesterday authorities began screening workers from a northern Nigerian farm where Africa's first documented cases of the H5N1 strain were confirmed last week following the deaths of thousands of birds.
But authorities lacked testing equipment and workers appeared reluctant to come forward.
Experts from the US-based Centres for Disease Control and Prevention arrived in Nigeria on Sunday with equipment and protective clothing for 200 Nigerian health officials who will kill birds in the north of the country, Agriculture Minister Adamu Bello said.
Health Minister Eyitayo Lambo told reporters the five new states with suspected H5N1 were: Abuja, where the capital is located; Katsina; Nasarawa; Yobe; and Jigawa.
If the cases are confirmed, they would bring the number of states affected to eight. It has been confirmed in three northern states - Kaduna, Kano and Plateau.
Professor Barry Schoub, the director of the SA National Institute of Communicable diseases, said the virus had probably spread over a much more extensive area in Nigeria and that he expected to see large-scale destruction of birds there.
"The Nigeria case is very, very concerning because the spread in poultry appears to have been going on for quite some time and may well be more extensive," Schoub told reporters in Johannesburg.
He said destroying birds was the most effective way to stop the spread of the infection in developing countries which did not have facilities such as those in Europe, where poultry is being kept indoors to avoid contact with water infected by migrating wild birds.
H5N1 has killed at least 88 people, mostly in Asia, since 2003, but no human cases have been confirmed in Africa so far.
Schoub also said there was preliminary evidence to show that there was some resistance to the only antiviral drug available to combat bird flu, Tamiflu.
"This resistance is very rare and quite localised, but it is a worry," Schoub said.
A number of countries around the world have begun stockpiling the drug for use in the event of an outbreak of H5N1 infection among humans but South Africa is yet to register the drug for use here. - Sapa-AP, Staff Reporter
New Freedom
Veteran Member
The Olympics are a concern.....but I don't think the virus has mutated to the point that there is H2H efficient transmisison. But I think that it is very, very close......definately "too close for comfort!"
Kim99
Veteran Member
Dr. Osterholm Comments-February 14, 2006
National conference in Minneapolis
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"We can't hope our way out of this, and we can't just sit and say, 'Woe is me.' Comprehensive and serious planning is not optional," said Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, publisher of the CIDRAP Web site.
Parallels between 1918 virus and H5N1
Osterholm sought to background the audience on the science of pandemics in an hour-long talk he called "Influenza 101." A major theme was that recent research has uncovered chilling similarities between the H5N1 avian influenza virus now circulating in Asia and the H1N1 flu virus that took the world by storm in 1918.
Researchers recently have concluded that the 1918 virus jumped directly from birds to humans, which bears comparison with the way the H5N1 avian virus is infecting some humans, though it has not spread from person to person. Further, certain mutations seen in the 1918 virus have also been found in H5N1 viruses, Osterholm said.
"I can't come to any other conclusion than that H5N1 and the 1918 H1N1 [viruses] are kissing cousins of the highest order," he said.
He warned that modern medicine won't offer a great deal of protection in the first several months of a pandemic flu, if ever. Given the time it takes to develop and produce a vaccine for a new flu strain, "Don't count on a vaccine to get us out of this, at least in the first stage," he said.
The flu drug oseltamivir (Tamiflu) also has its limitations, he said. "The way we use Tamiflu now may not work for H5N1—it's likely to be needed at a much higher dosage for a much longer time period."
Osterholm was asked if he would advise people to stockpile oseltamivir. In reply, he admitted that he has stockpiled some himself, as have colleagues who have been known to counsel the opposite. But he also said it's essential to make sure there are adequate supplies of antivirals and other medical products for healthcare workers and first responders.
For the full article, including comments from other experts, click:
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/co...1406summit.html
National conference in Minneapolis
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"We can't hope our way out of this, and we can't just sit and say, 'Woe is me.' Comprehensive and serious planning is not optional," said Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, publisher of the CIDRAP Web site.
Parallels between 1918 virus and H5N1
Osterholm sought to background the audience on the science of pandemics in an hour-long talk he called "Influenza 101." A major theme was that recent research has uncovered chilling similarities between the H5N1 avian influenza virus now circulating in Asia and the H1N1 flu virus that took the world by storm in 1918.
Researchers recently have concluded that the 1918 virus jumped directly from birds to humans, which bears comparison with the way the H5N1 avian virus is infecting some humans, though it has not spread from person to person. Further, certain mutations seen in the 1918 virus have also been found in H5N1 viruses, Osterholm said.
"I can't come to any other conclusion than that H5N1 and the 1918 H1N1 [viruses] are kissing cousins of the highest order," he said.
He warned that modern medicine won't offer a great deal of protection in the first several months of a pandemic flu, if ever. Given the time it takes to develop and produce a vaccine for a new flu strain, "Don't count on a vaccine to get us out of this, at least in the first stage," he said.
The flu drug oseltamivir (Tamiflu) also has its limitations, he said. "The way we use Tamiflu now may not work for H5N1—it's likely to be needed at a much higher dosage for a much longer time period."
Osterholm was asked if he would advise people to stockpile oseltamivir. In reply, he admitted that he has stockpiled some himself, as have colleagues who have been known to counsel the opposite. But he also said it's essential to make sure there are adequate supplies of antivirals and other medical products for healthcare workers and first responders.
For the full article, including comments from other experts, click:
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/co...1406summit.html