=
<B><center>Lee braces for bird flu
<font size=+1 color=purple>Officials stock supplies should deadly strain strike</font>
By Michelle L. Start
mstart@news-press.com
Originally posted on February 10, 2006
<A href="http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060210/NEWS01/602100396/1002">www.news-press.com</a></center>
PANDEMIC FLU CONFERENCE
Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has scheduled a conference in Tallahassee from 1 p.m. to 5 p.m. Feb. 16 to discuss the state's pandemic flu preparedness plans. It will be be aired on the local cable television government channels.
WHAT LOCAL EMPLOYERS ARE SAYING</b>
• John Wilson, Lee County's emergency management director, said the county would have to prioritize which services to offer in the event of a bad flu epidemic.
"I don't think it's realistic to think you'd shut down everything in government for a period of 40 days," he said. "You'd have to continue to offer vital services, like electricity."
More likely, he said, fewer people would be working at any given time.
"Certain people will get sick and get better or not, and you'd have sort of a cycle going."
Even the most essential services would likely be cut back, he said: for example, "Certain response times we may have to suspend due to a lack of staff or prioritize so we only get to heart attacks — if you have a sprained ankle it may take a little longer. Or maybe we collect the garbage every other week instead of every week."
• Ken Plonski, spokesman for WCI Communities Inc., a Bonita Springs-based luxury builder, said the company doesn't have a plan dealing specifically with an epidemic. But several hundred of the 1,800 WCI employees in Southwest Florida took advantage of flu shots this season.
• "We've been monitoring absences, and we haven't seen anything significant," said Sharon Warnecke, health services coordinator for Lee County schools.
The school board has a policy that gives the superintendent authority to close any or all schools in case of an emergency. A string of hurricanes — not sickness — have forced closures for a total of 15 school days since August 2004.
— Staff writers Dave Breitenstein and Dick Hogan contributed to this report.
<b>BIRD FLU Q & A</b>
• Who is at risk?
Everyone, although seniors older than 65, those with chronic disease and pregnant women are at higher risk.
• Why is it so deadly?
Because the human body does not recognize the strain of the virus and therefore cannot fight it.
• Can I catch it from sitting next to someone on an airplane?
Currently, the virus has not mutated enough to be passed from human to human.
• What is the incubation period?
Incubation from time of exposure to onset of illness has ranged from two to eight days with the upper limit at 17 days.
• What are some symptoms?
High fever with influenza-like illness with lower respiratory tract symptoms (headache, fatigue, diarrhea, abdominal pain, vomiting, cough, sore throat, shortness of breath).
• Is there a vaccine I can take?
No. There is currently no vaccine to protect humans against the strain.
• What should I do?
Keep a 40-day food and water supply on hand. Be vigilant about washing hands. Talk to employer about sick policy in the event of a pandemic. If you suspect you may have the avian virus, see a physician immediately. Be careful not to take unnecessary medications because the body can build up a resistance to antibiotics that may eventually be used to treat a pandemic.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
<b>ALSO FROM NEWS-PRESS.COM</b>
Readers' forum: How concerned are you that a pandemic could happen? Have you taken or plan on taking any precautions?
Lee County's top health official warned the pandemic avian flu could be here any day with disastrous consequences if the community isn't prepared.
A three-month supply of antibiotics, steroids and surgical masks is on its way after county health department director Dr. Judith Hartner warned hospital officials Thursday of the danger.
"If this happens, things like masks will be in short supply," said Lee Memorial Dr. Charles Krivenko, chief medical officer for clinical and quality services.
Hartner gave the warning the day after the World Health Organization announced the virus had spread to Nigeria, which is on the third continent to be affected.
"It's like when there is a tropical depression off the Leeward Islands," Hartner said at a Lee Memorial Health System board meeting. "We need to pay attention. A disaster could be coming our way."
She said the virus could get here any time between today and 10 years from now.
Although the virus is being transmitted from birds to humans, it's only a matter of time before it mutates and is passed between people, officials said. It's fatal in half the cases.
Avian flu outbreaks began in southeast Asia in mid-2003 and have now spread to Europe and Africa. More than 180 people have been struck by the virus.
If the flu were to strike Lee County this week, for example, it would incapacitate the economy with 30 percent of the population becoming ill and an estimated 550 people dying, Hartner said. She said Lee hospitals should expect 20,000 more admissions with 80,000 more outpatient treatments while working with a third less staff.
The state has ordered 4 million doses of Tamiflu, but that is only enough to treat a quarter of Florida's population, and emergency workers would get the vaccine first.
Especially susceptible to the virus will be the elderly, pregnant women and those with chronic illnesses.
Dr. John Donaldson said children could be at higher risk as well because so many form a resistance to antibiotics.
"If its anything like the 1918 flu, it will kill a lot more than 500 people," said Dr. Bob Schwartz, former Lee Memorial infectious disease specialist. "It will incapacitate thousands and will be a disruption from hell."
The Spanish flu, which ran rampant around the world from 1918 to 1919, killed an estimated 550,000 people.
Schwartz said that although the National Institute of Health has a checklist, Lee County is not prepared and if the virus hits this year, the death toll will be astronomical. He said there are not enough self-contained hospital rooms to hold all the people who will become ill and the general public is not taking the threat seriously enough.
He said people need to have a 40-day supply of food and water, be extra vigilant about hand washing and hospitals need to have a plan in place on how they will treat the influx of patients.
"We have no protection against it and that is the beginning of a pandemic," Hartner said. "We don't know what the next pandemic will be like or where it will start. It will be much more than a health event. It will cripple our economy."
Hartner has been talking to employers, school and health officials about getting prepared immediately.
Part of that is having doctors ask all patients exhibiting flu symptoms if they have traveled and using special detection kits to see whether they are infected with the avian virus. She said health officials will immediately come in to contain anyone infected and ask for quarantines for those who were in contact with the infected person.
"After two or three cases, we will switch into response," Hartner said. "We would have an increasing number of sick people, but only the sickest could come to the hospital."
She is urging employers to examine sick policies because if the virus mutates, everything from the airport to grocery stores to schools would be ordered shut for upward of 40 days.