02/04 | First case of Bird Flu in Bulgaria

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
Last Update: Saturday, February 4, 2006. 11:11am (AEDT)

Bulgaria reports first bird flu case
Bulgaria has discovered its first case of H5 bird flu in a swan found in the waters of the Danube river, authorities said, and samples will be sent to Britain to test whether it is the strain that can kill people.

Sandwiched between Romania and Turkey, both of which have been hit by outbreaks of the deadly H5N1 strain, Bulgaria has been seen as a possible destination for the virus.

"Our teams found a wild swan in the Danube river near the town of Vidin - the tests on the swan showed it was infected with the H5 virus," Agriculture Minister Nihat Kabil told a news conference.

He said he had put his veterinary offices on high alert but the discovery of one infected swan did not mean there was a danger of wider outbreaks.

The swan was found alive on January 31 at an industrial site near the border with Romania and Serbia.

It died after showing symptoms of shaking and partial paralysis.

Bulgaria is not able to conduct the complex tests which can tell whether a strain of H5 is the highly pathogenic H5N1, which has killed at least 86 people and millions of birds since 2003.

Human victims contract the virus through close contact with infected birds.

-Reuters

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200602/s1562298.htm
 

JPD

Inactive
New Test Quickly Spots Bird Flu in People

http://www.forbes.com/lifestyle/health/feeds/hscout/2006/02/03/hscout530787.html

FRIDAY, Feb. 3 (HealthDay News) -- U.S. health officials announced Friday the approval of a new rapid lab test to detect bird flu in humans.

The test works by detecting viral genetic material, which, in turn, is used to demonstrate the presence of bird-flu infection.

It was developed by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration within two weeks.

"The approval provides CDC and its Laboratory Response Network with a powerful tool to allow early detection of avian flu should it appear in the United States," Dr. Steve I. Gutman, director of the FDA's Office of In Vitro Diagnostics Device Evaluation and Safety at the Center for Devices and Radiological Health, said at a press briefing.

"Timely detection of avian flu has obvious benefit to patients who have been infected and can help stop the spread of this disease," he added.

Since December 2003, more than 150 human cases of bird, or avian, flu caused by the H5N1 strain of the virus have been reported, mostly in Southeast Asia, Turkey and Iraq, and 85 people have died. The virus is especially virulent, killing more than half of those infected.

So far, exposure seems to have been limited to contact with infected poultry. Experts are concerned, however, that the virus will mutate and gain the ability to skip easily and quickly from human to human, triggering a pandemic.

The virus is not currently circulating in North America.

The new test, called the Influenza A/H5 (Asian lineage) Virus Real-time RT-PCR Primer and Probe Set, will be used in the CDC's network of about 140 labs in all 50 states.

A person with suspected bird-flu infection would provide a sample of a respiratory secretion (either through a swab or aspiration) to health-care professionals at a clinic, emergency room or doctor's office. That sample would then be sent to a lab, which should be able to perform the test and generate results in two to four hours, Gutman said. Previous technology required a minimum of two to three days, he said.

Stephan S. Monroe, acting director of the CDC's Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases, said 87 percent of the U.S. population lives within one hour of one of these labs, so getting a sample to a lab for testing should not cause a time lag.

There are some caveats with the test, however. It generates a "presumptive" positive rather than a definitive positive, meaning that further testing and "careful interpretation" would still have to be conducted by the CDC.

"A negative test does not conclusively rule out the possibility of avian flu," Gutman explained. "It's not intended for general screening of individuals in the general population. It's intended for use in patients with severe respiratory illness who have had a risk of exposure, such as travel or contact with suspicious birds."

Because the CDC is part of the World Health Organization's collaborating network for influenza, the test will be shared with labs around the world.

The test was developed solely with government funding, but officials said the private sector had expressed considerable interest. Officials also said the expedited review process would be open to other companies developing diagnostic tests.

The speed of the test's approval was exceeded only by that of the West Nile virus test, which took four days.

"It's not a record but it's still awfully good," Gutman said.
 

JPD

Inactive
Backyard farms to be banned
(Hong Kong)

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=11&art_id=11331&sid=6529681&con_type=1

The government said it plans to outlaw backyard poultry farms to combat avian flu after attempts to cull birds at people's homes failed.

Winnie Chong

Saturday, February 04, 2006

The government said it plans to outlaw backyard poultry farms to combat avian flu after attempts to cull birds at people's homes failed.

Warning that bird flu in Hong Kong was "endemic," Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow made the announcement Friday, following last month's discovery of a dead chicken and two wild birds infected with the H5N1 virus in the New Territories.

The chicken had been smuggled from the mainland, and three members of a family that kept it in their backyard had been quarantined. They have since tested negative for the virus.

Under current public health regulations, only households or farms with more than 20 chickens or poultry have to be licensed.

Chow said that in a bid to plug loopholes and prevent the spread of avian flu, legislation to be presented within the next two weeks will ban the keeping of live poultry in homes, even for a short period of time.

He said the discovery of the dead chicken and birds suggested that bird flu is now endemic in Hong Kong, but that the risk of an outbreak in the territory is still relatively small.

A bid Thursday to round up all backyard chickens in the border town of Sha Tau Kok - where the dead chicken was found - failed as only 10 of 310 birds were surrendered by residents to Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department officers.

Chow said banning backyard farms is necessary as these households do not have safety measures to prevent the poultry from coming into contact with migratory birds.

He said the ban will apply to chickens, ducks, geese, pigeons, turkeys and quails, and offenders could be subject to fines ranging from HK$50,000 to HK$100,000.

Before the legislation comes into force, AFCD staff will patrol rural areas and ask those with backyard farms to voluntarily surrender their poultry.

Those who do not wish to do so will be allowed to vaccinate and keep their poultry until the bill becomes law.

Those who hand in their poultry will be compensated.

"The amount of compensation will not be big as we don't want to pay for chickens from an unknown source," Chow said.

Meanwhile, customs commissioner Timothy Tong said officers from his department had stepped up inspections at all border crossings to prevent smuggling of poultry.

The chairman of the Legislative Council's food safety panel, Democratic Party legislator Fred Li, said he agreed with the proposed legislation as live chickens were now a "time bomb" for the spread of the H5N1 virus.

Wong Yung-kan, the legislator representing the agriculture and fisheries sector, also agreed with the amendment to the health regulations, but urged the government to ensure the compensation is fair.

However, some households in Sha Tau Kok are angry about the proposed amendment.

One resident, Ko Tai-choi, 67, refused to surrender her eight chickens Thursday and instead killed four of them for food.

"Vaccinating chickens should be enough," she said "This is a free society and there is no reason why we should not be allowed to raise chickens for our own use."

Another resident said his chickens and ducks had come from a registered farm and that he would not surrender them.

"We will kill and eat all of them before the regulations come into force," he said.
 
Last edited:

JPD

Inactive
Officials tell of bird-flu preparations

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060204/LIFE02/602040333/1039/LIFE

In a Des Moines visit, federal health official Mike Leavitt says Iowa is gearing up for a possible outbreak.

By KEVIN DOBBS
REGISTER STAFF WRITER

February 4, 2006

Asian bird flu could mutate, spread worldwide, and cripple the U.S. economy, President Bush's chief health official warned Friday in Des Moines.

The result could be 90 million sick Americans, with nearly 1 million of those being Iowans. Untold thousands could die. But Mike Leavitt, secretary of the federal Department of Health and Human Services, said Iowa and the world are better prepared than ever to head off the threat.

Leavitt was in Iowa as part of a national tour to raise awareness and inspire local leaders to plan for a disease pandemic.

Modern medications and media, combined with a well-trained work force, can be used to galvanize the country in a fight against a flu pandemic, he said.

But Leavitt added that local officials must make specific plans on how to stockpile and distribute vaccines and quarantine and treat infected people.

"Any community that fails to prepare with the expectation that the federal government can come to their rescue at their moment of need would be tragically wrong," Leavitt said. "Everything we say sounds either alarmist or exaggerated. The reality is, this is a very serious situation."

Leavitt was joined by Dr. Julie Gerberding, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Gov. Tom Vilsack, who said the threat of a flu pandemic could outweigh terrorist concerns.

"Mother Nature can be just as devastating, if not more so, than a terrorist," Vilsack said.

The flu that has rapidly spread among birds — H5N1 avian influenza — was first identified in Hong Kong in 1997. It has since spread across Southeast Asia and into Turkey and Iraq. So far, human cases of the disease, which has infected more than 160 people and killed 85 worldwide, have been caused by direct contact with birds, primarily chickens.

But scientists say the virus could mutate into a disease that could be spread among people, much like the common cold. If that happened, the effect could rival the 1918 Spanish influenza, which killed an estimated 675,000 Americans.

The federal government recently announced it would spend $100 million to help states prevent a reprise. Iowa will get $1.2 million and expects to get more in coming months.

Iowa health officials have a rough draft of a plan that calls for health officials to order quarantines, ban mass gatherings, close schools and restrict travel. Patty Judge, Iowa's agriculture secretary, said her office and experts in the industry have created a system to monitor the spread of flu among poultry and other animals, and they are at work on a ways to round up and kill large numbers of infected animals.

But officials say plans are only in the beginning stages. They know, for example, that distribution of vaccine is crucial, but they don't yet know how effective a vaccine will be, how quickly it can be produced, or how much it will cost.

Vilsack said that some experts recommend stockpiles equal to a fourth of the state's population. That, he said, could cost about $166 million, according to one estimate, and the state has no plan to set aside that much money.
 

JPD

Inactive
WHO warns of avian flu pandemic in poultry

http://www.newkerala.com/news2.php?action=fullnews&id=2339

New York: The World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned that new outbreaks of the deadly bird flu virus in poultry are expected this year, but the incidence will be only sporadic in humans.

Repeating the call to countries to "come up with strategies to deal with a possible pandemic", the UN body in a statement from Geneva said "the priorities for 2006 would be to continue to work closely with the 192-member states and with international organisations to improve surveillance of the disease.

Despite recent human cases in Turkey and Iraq, "a surge in human deaths seems unlikely", was the reassuring WHO statement on Friday.

"This is still pretty much an animal disease and is rare in humans. The control measures should be containment of the source at the farm level," said Margaret Chang, Director of WHO's Communicable Disease branch.

Commenting on the test results of the recent suspected human cases of bird flu in Iraq, Chang confirmed that a 15-year old girl who died of pulmonary conditions had the H5N1 virus.

Results in two others cases in Iraq were not yet available, Chang said.

She corrected rumours in the media that there were large numbers of people infected by the avian influenza in Iraq.

During the last two years, several countries have reported outbreaks of avian influenza caused by the H5N1 virus in people, and close to 100 have died, most of them in Vietnam.

In addition more than 140 million chickens have been slaughtered in an effort to contain the disease.

So far, the virus has only spread from infected animals to humans, but WHO has warned that it could change into a form that spreads easily from person to person, triggering an influenza pandemic that could kill millions of people worldwide.

"In humans, treatment with antiviral medicines is one way to reduce death and illness, and WHO has been building up drug stockpiles at different locations worldwide for quick distribution in case of an emergency," the statement said.

Chang said the agency has been assisting the government of Iraq in building its stockpiles of drugs and that a shipment of the anti-viral drug Tamiflu was on its way to that country.
 

JPD

Inactive
Indonesia says four more bird flu cases confirmed

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L0489005.htm

04 Feb 2006 13:46:51 GMT

Source: Reuters

JAKARTA, Feb 4 (Reuters) - A Hong Kong laboratory recognised by the World Health Organisation has confirmed four more human bird flu cases in Indonesia, including two deaths, a senior Indonesian Health Ministry official said on Saturday.

Hariadi Wibisono, the ministry's director of control of animal-borne diseases, said that raised Indonesia's total confirmed human bird flu cases to 23.

"There are now 23 confirmed cases in Indonesia. Of these, 16 have died," Wibisono told Reuters.

Turkey and Iraq last month became the latest countries outside Asia to report human cases of the H5N1 strain of avian flu. While it mostly affects birds, bird flu has infected 161 people and killed 86 of them since 2003, according to the World Health Organization.

Wibisono said the newly confirmed Indonesian deaths were of a 22-year-old male chicken seller from Jakarta who died late last month and a 15-year-old boy who died in the West Java city of Bandung this week.

Those still alive included a 5-year-old girl from around the town of Indramayu in West Java province and a 5-year-old boy from the province of Lampung on the island of Sumatra.

The girl came from an area near where two Indonesian children from the same family died of bird flu in January, Wibisono said. The girl was unrelated to them.

The boy was an older case where initial tests had proven inconclusive, he added.

Most Indonesian cases have shown the victims had contact with dead chickens.

One of the greatest fears of experts is that the H5N1 virus will mutate to become easily passed between humans, triggering a pandemic. The current H5N1 strain of bird flu has not mutated.

The highly pathogenic strain of bird flu has affected birds in two-thirds of the provinces in Indonesia, an archipelago of about 17,000 islands and 220 million people.

The country has millions of chickens and ducks, many in the yards of rural or urban homes, making it likely that more humans will become infected with the virus.
 
=


<center>"It ain over; till it's over"

<b><font szie=+1 color=red>Last patients discharged from hospital,
signaling end to bird flu outbreak in Turkey</font>

February 04 2006
<A href="http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/World/2006/02/04/1426007-ap.html">cnews.canoe.ca</a></center>
ISTANBUL, Turkey (AP) - The last four suspected bird flu patients - two of them confirmed to have contracted the deadly H5N1 strain - were discharged from a hospital in eastern Turkey, signalling an end to the recent outbreak, a doctor said Saturday. </b>

There were no bird flu patients left in any hospital in Turkey, a Health Ministry official said, suggesting the outbreak might have come to an end. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because Turkish civil servants cannot speak to media without prior authorization.

The two children confirmed with bird flu had both been in critical condition before improving drastically and being released on Friday.

"The children were under treatment for nearly a month, and they were sent home after they apparently recovered from bird flu," said Dr. Ahmet Faik Oner from the Van 100th Year Hospital, where the four confirmed deaths from bird flu in Turkey occurred.

"The crisis in Van is 95-per cent over" Oner told The Associated Press. "There might be sporadic (bird flu) cases in the future, but I don't think we'll face a new epidemic."

The two children were relatives of Fatma Ozcan, the last of four children who died of bird flu in Turkey.

Two other people who were treated for bird flu, though neither had confirmed infections, also were released Friday from the hospital in Van.

A total of 21 people tested positive for the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu since the outbreak began in December, the government's bird flu crisis centre said.

Turkey has destroyed more than 1.6 million fowl across the country to contain the virus and limit contact between fowl and humans.

The bird flu virus has so far only jumped from poultry to people, killing at least 85 people in east Asia and Turkey since 2003.

Experts fear that if the strain is not contained, it could mutate into a form spread easily among humans, triggering a pandemic capable of killing millions.
 
=



<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>U.S. experts expect to be overwhelmed by bird flu</font>

Fri Feb 3, 2006 1:15 PM GMT
By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Correspondent
<A href="http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=healthNews&storyid=2006-02-03T131356Z_01_N0257209_RTRIDST_0_HEALTH-BIRDFLU-READINESS-DC.XML">today.reuters.co.uk</a></center>
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. flu experts are resigned to being overwhelmed by an avian flu pandemic, saying hospitals, schools, businesses and the general public are nowhere near ready to cope.</b>

Money, equipment and staff are lacking and few states have even the most basic plans in place for dealing with an epidemic of any disease, let alone the possibly imminent pandemic of H5N1 avian influenza, they told a meeting on Thursday.

While a federal plan has been out for several weeks, it lacks essential details such as guidance on when hospitals should start to turn away all but the sickest patients and when schools should close, the experts complained.

"There is no way at this time that we can even plan for this epidemic," said Dr. Roger Baxter of the University of California San Francisco and associate director of the Kaiser Permanente Vaccine Study Center.

"We could be easily overwhelmed," Baxter told the meeting organized by the Infectious Diseases Society of America, the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America, the Centers of

Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

"A lot of our facilities are old, with no isolation facilities," Baxter said.

H5N1 avian influenza has swept through flocks across Asia and into Europe, killing or forcing the culling of 200 million birds. It sometimes infects people and has infected 161 documented patients, killing 86 of them.

Experts say the virus is mutating steadily and poses the biggest threat yet for a long-expected global influenza pandemic if it acquires the ability to pass from person to person.

The world has not seen a flu pandemic since 1968, and that one was mild by most measures. The global public health system has crumbled as people enjoyed the respite from disease, experts say.

Now they are scrambling to fix it up, but say it is too big a job to do it quickly.

NOWHERE TO TURN

Dr. Dan Hanfling, director of emergency management and disaster medicine at the Inova Health System in Falls Church, Virginia, said hospitals in the Washington, D.C., area would be flooded with patients with nowhere to put them.

"There are going to be many, many people coming to the hospital because they are worried they may have been exposed," Hanfling said.

If there was just a 10 percent infection rate, that would mean 500,000 sick people in the Washington, D.C., area, Hanfling calculated. Some models assume that 20 percent of these people would need to be treated in hospitals.

"We are talking about finding 100,000 places," Hanfling said. "We have 7,800 staffed beds."

And hospitals are already filled to capacity with everyday illnesses.

"We'll still have heart attacks. We'll still have strokes. We'll still have babies to deliver," Hanfling told the meeting.

He cited one survey that showed only 66 percent of health care workers would show up for work if they thought patients might infect them. And an expected 25 percent could be out sick themselves, or caring for sick family members.

Dr. Trish Perl, president of the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America and director for infection control at Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore said she did a quick estimate of how many masks, for instance, a hospital would need to get through a pandemic outbreak.

A protective face mask is standard equipment for use in caring for patients with respiratory disease such as flu.

A 600-bed hospital would need 1.6 million masks to get through six weeks -- and that is assuming the hospital eases up on rules requiring workers to wear a fresh mask at each encounter with each patient, Perl said.
 
=




<B><center>Joint Hearing:
<font size=+1 color=purple>'Protecting the Homeland: Fighting Pandemic Flu From the Front Lines'</font> </b>

<A href="http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=ind_focus.story&STORY=/www/story/02-03-2006/0004274282&EDATE=FRI+Feb+03+2006,+09:00+AM">www.prnewswire.com</a></center>
<B><center> WASHINGTON, Feb. 3 /PRNewswire/ -- The following is being issued by the House Committee on Homeland Security:</b>

WHO: Subcommittee on Emergency Preparedness, Science, and Technology
and the Subcommittee on Prevention of Nuclear and Biological
Attack

WHEN: 2 p.m., Wednesday, Feb. 8, 2006

WHERE: 2237 Rayburn House Office Building

<b>WITNESSES</b>

Dr. Tara O'Toole
Chief Executive Officer and Director, Center for Biosecurity
University of Pittsburgh Medical Center

The Honorable David B. Mitchell
Secretary, Department of Safety and Homeland Security, State of Delaware

Frances B. Phillips, RN, MHA
Health Officer, Anne Arundel County Department of Health;
Vice-Chair, Bioterrorism and Emergency Preparedness Committee,
National Association of County and City Health Officials

Mr. Ernest Blackwelder
Senior Vice President, Business Force
Business Executives for National Security

Dr. David C. Seaberg
Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Florida;
Board Member, American College of Emergency Physicians</center>

<B>BACKGROUND</b>
The Subcommittees will review the role that state and local governments
play in preventing, preparing for, and responding to a potential influenza
pandemic. Specifically, Members will examine current surveillance and
monitoring of the influenza virus; the readiness of American public and
private health care and emergency preparedness systems to respond to the
impacts of an outbreak; and the coordination efforts among federal, state, and
local governments, the private sector, and individuals and families in the
event of a pandemic.



SOURCE House Committee on Homeland Security
Web Site: http://hsc.house.gov
 

okie medicvet

Inactive
There is no way at this time that we can even plan for this epidemic," said Dr. Roger Baxter of the University of California San Francisco and associate director of the Kaiser Permanente Vaccine Study Center.


Of course there is..you start by starting to do it..but those who say we cannot count on our govt to be there sure are right..neither can we count on health facilities to be there either..they will be overwhelmed..it will be make do as best one can time, for real.
 

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor

Low turnout for pandemic talk
Resident recalls loss of grandmother to 1918 'Spanish' flu
By Pam Tharp
Correspondent

LIBERTY, Ind. -- Mary Morgan's maternal grandmother got the "Spanish" flu in the 1918 epidemic that swept around the world.

Her grandmother was pregnant and both she and the baby died, said Morgan, of Liberty, who is 77. That flu killed 500,000 people in the U.S. and more than 40 million worldwide.

Her family experience with a fatal flu and seeing an Oprah show on the topic brought Morgan to Friday's program on pandemic flu at the Union County Public Library.

Morgan, though, is apparently the only resident worried about Avian or bird flu, which many epidemiologists fear will be the next pandemic. She was the only non-media person in attendance Friday.

The low turnout disappointed Union County public health coordinator Kirk Bryson, who brought Stephanie English, a disease investigator in the epidemiology division of the Department of Health, to speak.

"Some people are saying we're crying 'wolf,' but at the end of that fable, the wolf did come," Bryson said. "We're not trying to inflame or alarm, we're trying to inform."

It isn't just the general public that's not worried about pandemic flu. Health departments and physicians were invited to programs last summer, but not many doctors participated, English said.

Nobody knows how soon the H5N1 virus that's causing bird flu in Asia will reach the United States or when it will mutate so it can be transmitted from human to human.

English said it's not a question of if that will happen, but when. Avian flu has already made the leap from birds to swine in Asia and swine-to-human transmission is easier than bird-to-human, English said.

"It will get here through migratory birds and it will likely mutate before it gets here. It's spreading because it's a deadly bug. It's possible that it could become less virulent. The vaccines that are being produced now for this flu won't be effective (when it arrives here) because the virus will have mutated," English said.

In Asia, about 56 percent of Avian flu patients have died, English said. Like regular flu, it's not the influenza virus but the secondary infections like pneumonia that kill patients, she said.

All states were required by the federal government to prepare for the possibility of a bird flu pandemic. Indiana's plan is complete and the state recently held the first exercise in Vigo County to prepare for a pandemic. A second exercise will be Feb. 17 in Henry County and a third will be March 22 in Madison County. Those exercises will help state and local officials determine their ability to respond if a pandemic occurs.

State and federal governments, though, won't be able to provide much help for local communities, English said. Counties will be responsible for their own residents, she said.

Counties are working on pandemic plans. Union County doesn't have a hospital, which makes planning here more challenging. The first step is to complete plans for mass immunizations, which are due Feb. 28, Bryson said. County officials will meet with English next week, he said.

Pam Tharp is a correspondent for the Palladium-Item.

http://www.pal-item.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060204/NEWS01/602040303/1008

:vik:
 

New Freedom

Veteran Member
http://breakingnews.iol.ie/news/story.asp?j=171539644&p=y7y54x35x

Bird flu 'endemic' in Hong Kong
03/02/2006 - 10:00:07

Bird flu has become endemic in Hong Kong after its recent discovery in both local wild birds and chicken, the territory’s health secretary said today.

“Since different kinds of wild birds and chickens have this virus, we can be quite sure that this virus is endemic in our birds,” York Chow said.

(link for rest of story)
 
=



<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Most H5N1 Cases Now Linked to Human to Human Transmission</font>

<A href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02040603/H5N1_H2H_Most.html">Recombinomics Commentary</a>
February 4, 2006</center>
Almost all cases of H5N1 human infection appear to have resulted from some form of direct or close contact with infected poultry, primarily chickens. In addition, a few persons may have been infected through very close contact with another infected person, but this type of transmission has not led to sustained transmission.</b>

The above comments from the prepared statement for the Senate appropriations committee seriously underplay the involvement of human-to-human transmission of H5N1. The role was even more distorted in the actual testimony, which indicated that strong evidence of human-to-human existed for only two familial clusters. Familial clusters have made up an ever increasing percentage of the official H5N1 cases and virtually all such clusters involve human-to-human transmission among family members.

Although exposure to sick or dying poultry can be frequently linked to the index case in a cluster, this linkage does not necessarily extend to other family members. These members frequently have exposure to both the index case and poultry. To distinguish between a common poultry source and a common family member, the dates of disease onset are used. Since transmission from bird to human is rare, the likelihood of two independent transmission is low. Therefore, if the common source is poultry, the index case and other family members would be expected to develop symptoms over a short time course (1-2 days). If however, the index case transmitted the H5N1 to other family members, the time interval between disease onset in the index case and disease onset in other family members would be long (5-10 days).

The number of family clusters in the various countries reporting H5N1 outbreaks since 2004 has now exceeded thirty. Almost all of these clusters have a time gap of 5-10 days between disease onset of the index case and other family members. This gap indicates that most of the familial clusters involve human-to-human transmission.

The clusters date back to early 2004 in Vietnam and later in Thailand. By early 2005, these clusters account for almost one third of H5N1 cases. In Indonesia, the number of H5N1 patients in familial clusters grew to about two thirds of cases. The initial 15 clusters were described in a recent CDC/WHO publication. At that time, WHO changed wording in their characterization of the H5N1 outbreak. They had indicated that there was little evidence for human-to-human transmission. This changed to little evidence for efficient human-to-human transmission, acknowledging the growing number of familial cases which involved human-to-human transmission.

Recently, the size and number of these clusters grew, and WHO again changed their description from a lack of evidence for efficient human-to-human transmission to a lack of evidence for sustained human-to-human transmission. Although this terminology suggests the increased frequency has been noted by WHO, public comments and media reports still leave the impression that human-to-human transmission of H5N1 is rare or non-existent.

This impression is particularly misleading at the present time because a genetic change has been noted in H5N1 from the index case in Turkey. The change in the receptor binding domain of HA, S227N (also called S223N), increases the affinity of the HA for human receptors. This change coupled with another change, PB2 E627K, increases the efficiency of H5N1 infection in humans, especially in cold weather. These genetic changes have led to very large clusters in Turkey as well as linkage between clusters.

The linked cluster included the index case for Turkey. Index cases from familial clusters have in fact been the index cases for countries since 2005. The index case for Cambodia, Indonesia, China, Turkey, and Iraq all were familial index cases and all clusters included a 5-10 day gap in disease onset dates.

These data leave little doubt that human-to-human transmission of H5N1 is quite common and now represent the majority of human cases. Representations to the contrary are cause for concern.
 
Top