11/15 H5N1 Behind the "Bamboo Curtain" China Under Assault

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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Is India ready to tackle bird-flu?</font>
P.T. Jyothi Datta
Latha Venkatraman

Mumbai , Nov. 14
<A href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2005/11/15/stories/2005111503010900.htm">The Hindu Business Line</A>

IS bird flu here already? Citing unsubstantiated reports of bird-flu in Chennai and West Bengal, scientists have now joined in to voice their concern on India being ill-prepared to deal with bird-flu, in the event of an outbreak. </B></center>
"It (bird-flu) seems to have come," said Dr Ravindra Bapat, Chairman of Haffkine Bio-Pharmaceutical Corporation Ltd. Though uncorroborated, he said that incidents of avian-flu were being reported from across the country. Tests are being undertaken to check if it is the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain, he said.

The virus is unstable and can mutate from one animal to another and into humans. Resistance is already developing to the two known drugs that are used worldwide. And while there are some measures being undertaken to monitor birds, he said the country needed continuous surveillance, quarantine systems, disposal methods for dead livestock, diagnostic facilities for testing and disinfectants.

"As a clinician, I am worried that we have no plan to tackle the seriously infected, moderately infected and those who can be treated as out-patients, in the event of an outbreak," he told Business Line.

Another official with the animal health department of a drug company also said that bird-flu cases were reported from different parts of the country, only it was still being tested whether it is the virulent strain.

The Indian poultry industry, however, is not convinced. There is no incidence of bird-flu in the country, so far, they maintain.

"The Government and the industry have taken several measures to ensure that there are no incidences of bird-flu,'' said Mr A.R Subba Rao, executive Vice-President, Godrej Agrovet Ltd.

He believes that rumours of an outbreak may have emanated from diseases that affected the livestock, but ruled out bird-flu. The Government is `closely monitoring' the situation for any outbreak of diseases, he said.

In a recent meeting the Union Agriculture Minister, Mr Sharad Pawar, urged the poultry industry to ensure better surveillance. "The industry has been asked to make sure that no incidence go unnoticed and that birds if infected are put through isolation," Mr Rao said.

The Government is also monitoring migratory birds and checking for unnatural deaths if any. It has also put in place phytosanitary measures in the case of imports.

According to Mr Rao, the Indian poultry industry is quite comparable to the developed countries. "The poultry farmers are quite aware of the situation as there was an outbreak of bird-flu earlier. The poultry industry in India is far ahead of its counterpart in the South East Asian region in terms of farming methods and knowledge,'' he said.
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>Bird flu alert in Jammu and Kashmir</font>
New Delhi, Nov 12, IRNA
<A href="http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/line-16/0511129473093259.htm">India-Kashmir-Bird flu</A>

The Jammu and Kashmir government has sounded a bird flu alert in the entire state and cautioned people not to buy or kill birds.</B></center>
"Though not confirmed in India and also in Jammu and Kashmir, the World Health Organization has intimated that people be cautious," the state's Wildlife Department said.

Migratory birds are believed to be the carriers of bird flu, it said, adding that the department is working to ascertain facts.

"However, all the people, particularly those living in close proximity to water bodies, are cautioned to avoid leaving their ducks in wetlands.

The department urged the general public to ensure that birds are not killed in wetlands, water bodies or anywhere in inundated areas.

"All are requested not to indulge in illegal trade of any nature on birds. It is not only illegal but these birds may also carry bird flu."
"Don't kill, buy and accept birds ," the department warned.
 
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I am going to post a Boxun report on the current status of H5N1 in China. As you know (if you have followed the H5N1 news, that is. China is infamous about *not* releasing anything on H5N1 - or any other disease for that matter. Boxun has, in the past given out *good* information concerning Avian Flu in China; and what it is doing to the Chinese population in the infected provinces.

I have been following their reports for quite a spell now. And I believe that the Tbers just might like to know what things reportedly to be really like, with respect to H5N1 - avian flu - behind the "Bamboo Curtain"...

<i>please note the mention of the <B>PLA</b> in the article, they are, of course, The People's liberation Army...</i>



<B><center>Official from Ministry of Health Reveals 2005 Human Case Figures for Avian Influenza Outbreak in China</B></center>

Nov 12 2005

<A href="http://www.peacehall.com/news/gb/china/2005/11/200511142123.shtml">(Boxun Disclaimer) Human English translation from Mandarin Chinese </A>

http://discuss.agonist.org/yabbse/index.php?board=6;action=display;threadid=23994

Since 2004, China has been continually plagued by Avian Influenza outbreaks of varying degrees and unverified reports of infection. In 2005, some of these outbreaks attracted the attention of the outside world. However, these outbreaks are not as straightforward as what is perceived by the world at large.

(something to this effect, I think, can't be sure. mandarin's only my 2nd language.)

Due to the deployment of the PLA to the epidemic zones, the Chinese Ministry of Helath has been able to gain some form of control and organisation over the dissemination of information to the rest of the world. And although they have ostensibly allowed the entry of external health experts into the epidemic zones to conduct their investigations, they will still be bound by arrangements and rules dictated by the Chinese and hence their perception of the situtation there would not accurately reflect the actual events that had occured.

Currently, the Avian Influenza problem in China is very grave. Over the course of the outbreaks, Chinese officials have been briefed on the procedures to follow in order to control the outbreak the the spread of information. The Chinese Central Military Committee has directed that all suspect and confirmed cases of Avian Influenza infections be sent to specialized hospitals. Notifications must be sent to a higher centralized authority. They have also strictly prohibited any Chinese health officials to privately speak to the foreign media. If it is discovered that they have done so, they will be sacked immediately. There must be no mention made of the H5N1 virus in the cause of death of those who have succumbed to the virus. Patients who seek treatment for respiratory problems in non-designated hospitals will not be allowed to claim insurance or medical expenses.

(The statistical model used appears to be almost the same as that used during the previous Shenzhen Ebola outbreak)

(I've re-worked the table as i don't know how to post tables)

(B-H Bird to Human = H-H Human to Human)

Province: Qinghai
Number Deaths:143
Number Infected: 131
Number Quarantined: 961
Number Disappeared: 13
Mode of Transmission: B-H, H-H.

Province: Xinjiang
Number Deaths:18
Number Infected: 35
Number Quarantined: 340
Number Disappeared: 6
Mode of Transmission: B-H, H-H.

Province: Inner Mongolia
Number Deaths:28
Number Infected: 9
Number Quarantined: 149
Number Disappeared: 2
Mode of Transmission: B-H, H-H.

Province: Xichang
Number Deaths:7
Number Infected: 15
Number Quarantined: 177
Number Disappeared: 9
Mode of Transmission: B-H, H-H.

Province: Sichuan
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 12
Number Quarantined: 39
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission: B-H

Province: Hunan
Number Deaths:8
Number Infected: 4
Number Quarantined: 17
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission: B-H, H-H.

Province: Hubei
Number Deaths:25
Number Infected: 297
Number Quarantined: 1524
Number Disappeared: 4
Mode of Transmission: B-H, H-H.

Province: Guangdong
Number Deaths:6
Number Infected: 47
Number Quarantined: 66
Number Disappeared: 6
Mode of Transmission: B-H.

Province: Fujian
Number Deaths:2
Number Infected: 13
Number Quarantined: 9
Number Disappeared: 11
Mode of Transmission: B-H.

Province: Jiangxi
Number Deaths:1
Number Infected:0
Number Quarantined: 7
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission: B-H.

Province: Zhejiang
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 0
Number Quarantined: 13
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission:

Province: Jiangsu
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 0
Number Quarantined: 21
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission:

Province: Hunan
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 0
Number Quarantined: 57
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission:

Province: Hebei
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 0
Number Quarantined: 21
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission:

Province: Liaoning
Number Deaths:69
Number Infected: 237
Number Quarantined: 2076
Number Disappeared: 2
Mode of Transmission: B-H, H-H.

Province: Jilin
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 19
Number Quarantined: 30
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission: B-H.

Province: Heilongjiang
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 23
Number Quarantined: 9
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission: B-H.

Province: Hainan
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 0
Number Quarantined: 6
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission:

Province: Yunnan
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 3
Number Quarantined: 0
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission: B-H.

Province: Gansu
Number Deaths:1
Number Infected: 0
Number Quarantined: 7
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission: B-H.

Province: Ningxia
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 3
Number Quarantined: 0
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission: B-H.

Province: Shaanxi
Number Deaths:2
Number Infected: 0
Number Quarantined: 0
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission: B-H.

Province: Shandong
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 0
Number Quarantined: 4
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission:

Province: Anhui
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 6
Number Quarantined: 21
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission: B-H.

Although accurate till 12th November, these case figures are constantly changing. Also, since the cases figures have been collated by the Central State Council, they would have reduced it somewhat, and hence, the actual figures may be higher.

Currently, the situation in China is severe. Human to human transmission has occurred and affected personnel have been quarantined for long periods. Death figures are noticeably higher in B-H transmission regions. The situation has been gradually brought under control although it still remains critical.
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>More suspected human cases reported: Indonesia, Vietnam, China</font>

Monday, November 14, 2005
<A href="http://www.internationalsos.com/members_home/pandemicpreparedness/index.cfm?content_id=77&language_id=ENG">Influenza A(H5N1) Outbreaks</A>

Earlier today, news reports indicated that a 16-year-old Indonesian boy in intensive care had tested positive for avian flu. It has now been revealed that he tested negative for the virus. He is in intensive care in Jakarta, where two other people (females ages 13 and 20) who died over the weekend are also being tested for the disease. </B></center>
In Vietnam, two additional suspected cases have been reported in a student who ate chicken eggs and a 78-year-old woman who died from pneumonia. The woman died in the central province of Quang Binh on November 11. Both are being tested for the disease.

In China, a female poultry worker who has unidentified pneumonia is a suspected case. She works in the northeastern province of Liaoning, where millions of birds have been culled provincial government, which has already culled some 10 million birds due to the disease. Three other suspected human cases in China remain under investigation (see story November 6).
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=purple><center>China reports two new outbreaks in birds</font>
Monday, November 14, 2005
<A href="http://www.internationalsos.com/members_home/pandemicpreparedness/index.cfm?content_id=77&language_id=ENG">Pandemic Prepardness </A>

Jingshan county, in Hubei province, reported an outbreak of avian influenza in poultry over the weekend. On Monday, China announced that a farm in the eastern province of Anhui also suffered an outbreak. </B></center>
About 800 birds died in Huainan City early last week, and tests today confirmed H5N1 as the cause. Birds within 3 km (1.86 mi) will be culled and other nearby birds vaccinated. Checkpoints have been established to disinfect vehicles leaving the area.
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>China-made bird flu vaccine flown to Vietnam </font>

November 15 2005
<A href="http://english.people.com.cn/200511/15/eng20051115_221385.html">People's Daily Online</A>

A Boeing 737-300 transporter carrying 15 tons of China-made bird flu vaccine left Harbin for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Tuesday morning. </B></center>
The special plane is set to land in Ho Chi Minh City Tuesday afternoon after seven hours of flight, said Zhao Xuchen, deputy general manager of the cargo and passenger transportation sales company of the Heilongjiang Provincial Airport Management Group in northeast China.

He said Taiping International Airport in the provincial capital Harbin opened a green passage to facilitate customs clearance of the vaccine. The temperature inside cabin has to be between four and eight degrees Celsius to keep the vaccine alive.

The vaccine is produced by Harbin Weike Biological Technology Development Company under the Harbin Veterinary Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
Sources with the Harbin institute said altogether 43 tons of the vaccine will be flown to Vietnam and two more shipments will be arranged within days.
 
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<B><center><font size=+1 color=brown>Rumors of Human Infections in Bejing</font>

November 15 2005
<A href="http://www.peacehall.com/news/gb/china/2005/11/200511120018.shtml">Peacehall.com - Chinese language article</A>

According to a report published in the 10th November issue of the Financial Times (Chinese local version, literal translation "Chan Jing"), rumors of human infections of the H5N1 virus have been circulating among Beijing citizens.</B></center>
Although authorities have publicly declared that outbreaks of H5N1 have been limited to 3 provinces (i translated it literally. i'll leave the interpretation up to you.), many provinces have begun enforcing strict control measures.

Beijing officials have suddenly stopped the trading of live poultry and sales of pet birds have been stopped. Even the old men have stopped feeding the birds in the parks. One can't help but wonder if these actions are indicative of the severity of the Avian Influenza issue in China. After the suspected human death was reported in Hunan on 7th (of November), the normally bustling Beijing Barbecued Duck Shop has seen a significant drop in customers.
 

jtlc001

Contributing Member
[The vaccine is produced by Harbin Weike Biological Technology Development Company under the Harbin Veterinary Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
Sources with the Harbin institute said altogether 43 tons of the vaccine will be flown to Vietnam and two more shipments will be arranged within days.]

If this is correct, Then the public is not being informed of the severity
that is already upon the world..

Imagine 43 tons and 2 more shipments of vaccine. And, this just to a
country the size of Nam. INTERESTING
 
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<B><center><font size=+1 color=green>New bird flu outbreak reported in western China -- paper </font>

15/ 11/ 2005
<A href="http://en.rian.ru/world/20051115/42092421.html">RIA Novosti</A>

SYANGAN (Hong Kong), November 15 (RIA Novosti, Mark Zavadsky) - A fresh outbreak of bird flu has been registered in China's western Xinjiang-Uighur Autonomous region, a Hong Kong-based newspaper reported Tuesday.</B></center>
According to Ta Kung Pao, the outbreak was registered November 11, when about 1,400 chickens died in two areas not far from Urumchi, the capital of the province, which has a population of about 19 million people and borders on Russia, and other countries.

The local authorities ordered another 200,000 poultry within several kilometers around the pockets of infection to be culled.

Experts from China's Agriculture Ministry are currently working in the province, the paper said and blood samples from the dead poultry had been sent for analysis to a Beijing laboratory.

This is the 10th outbreak of bird flu registered in China in the past one and a half months.
 

Mark D

Now running for Emperor.
Finally some competition for Tamiflu.


http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051114/20051114005778.html?.v=1

Press Release Source: Sinovac Biotech Ltd.

Sinovac Passes China's Ministry of Science and Technology 'Pandemic Influenza Vaccine R&D Project' Examination
Monday November 14, 10:26 am ET

BEIJING--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 14, 2005--Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (AMEX:SVA - News) announced that the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (MoST) has examined its Pandemic Influenza Vaccine R&D Project and accepted the results; clearing the way for continued sponsorship of the program.

China's MoST periodically evaluates the nationally funded Pandemic Influenza Vaccine R&D Project, and determines if sufficient progress has been made before Sinovac is permitted to continue. For the first critical step, top professionals from MoST conducted extensive evaluations of Sinovac's preclinical trials, and accepted all the results of this project to date.

Top professionals from MoST determined that Sinovac's method for developing an avian influenza vaccine for humans can be used for the prevention of influenza pandemic among humans, caused by the mutated strain from H5N1. Sinovac established in its preclinical trials that it has the ideal technological platform, personnel, equipment and management for the vaccine's development and production. Sinovac's preclinical trials have shown that its vaccine candidate has a high-quality safety and immunogenicity profile.

Sinovac developed its proprietary Pandemic Influenza Vaccine based on the NIBRG-14 virus strain provided by the British National Institute of Biological Standards and Control (NIBSC). Since April 2004, Sinovac completed its study of production processes; established a viral "seed bank" for vaccine production; and set up quality standards and testing methods.

Sinovac has applied for human clinical trials for its pandemic influenza vaccine with the Chinese State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA). In preparation for approval, Sinovac has already produced sufficient pandemic flu vaccines to complete human clinical trials.

Successful vaccine research and development of a Pandemic influenza vaccine is Sinovac's second national achievement against emerging virulent infectious diseases. In 2004 Sinovac developed a safe and effective inactivated SARS vaccine, and became the first company in the world to successfully complete phase I clinical trials.
 
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<B><center><font size=+1 color=purple>'Confusion reigns’ over bird flu deaths</font>

(Filed: 15/11/2005)
<A href="http://portal.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/11/15/uflu.xml&sSheet=/portal/2005/11/15/ixportaltop.html">Telegraph | News</A>

Opposition MPs are calling for tighter quarantine procedures after more than 50 birds died in an outbreak of avian flu at an Essex quarantine centre.</B></center>
Asia has been hardest hit by bird flu
A newly released report, published by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), said a consignment of Taiwanese mesia birds was the most likely source of the outbreak.

But Oliver Letwin, the shadow environment minister, said the report was another worrying indication that "confusion reigns".

An investigation was launched last month after a pool of tissue samples from a blue headed parrot from Surinam, South America, and a mesia from Taiwan tested positive for the H5N1 strain.

Because the sample came from both the parrot and the mesia bird, which is a type of finch, the report said it had not been possible to say for sure which bird the virus came from.

But "on the balance of probabilities", the infection was introduced to the facility by a consignment of mesias, the study concluded.

The infection was transmitting between mesias, but did not appear to have been passed on to other species held at the facility.

Mr Letwin said the report highlighted problems with the Government's handling of bird flu, and called for a tightening of quarantine procedures.

"The pooled testing of samples also remains a concern of ours, and has clearly led to the confusion and chaos at the centre of this discovery," he said.

"Defra informs us that it will be another three weeks before they will announce what they will do to strengthen the quarantine system, this delay is quite unacceptable."

Some 53 of the 101 Taiwanese birds died, though the report was unable to say how many were killed by the flu.

Ben Bradshaw, the animal welfare minister, said the discovery that the disease had been confined to the finches had "potentially huge implications" for the international efforts to combat the spread of bird flu.

"Given the fact that these finches had this strain in close confinement with birds, including chickens, and none of those birds got the infection, I think that will be found to be pretty significant around the world," he said.
 
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[English translation of article by Boxun]

<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>Bird Flu Epidemic Will Strike Between January - March 2006</font>

November 13 2005
<A href="http://www.peacehall.com/news/gb/misc/2005/08/200508201200.shtml">Peacehall.com | Chinese Language site</A>

Although the dreaded Bird Flu has already taken it's toll on many countries, Taiwan has yet to be affected.</B></center>
However, the Taiwanese government does not intend to rest on it's laurels and have, instead, prioritized it to being a matter of national security. In a press conference on 19th August, the Taiwan Minister of Health told reporters that according to analysis by experts, the Bird Flu epidemic is likely to strike between January- March 2006. He also said that while the government has carried out preparations in anticipation of that, the Taiwanese people must be prepared for such an outbreak.

In a National Security Meeting hosted by President Chen Shui Bian on 19th August, one of the items on the agenda was the "Bird Flu Pandemic Contingency Plan". (something along those lines) Following the meeting, a press conference was held concerning the government's position with regards to dealing with the Bird Flu. The Minister of Health issued a warning, saying that experts feel that it is no longer a matter of "if it'll (Bird Flu) come" but rather a matter of "when it'll come".

He stated that the pandemic is predicted to strike between January - March next year. He called upon the Taiwanese people to be alert and to take the necessary precautionary measures when needed. He stressed that the human body resistance to the Bird Flu is low and hence the probability of a full blown pandemic was extremely high.

He said that 3 pandemics have occured in the 20th century. Experts believe that the pandemic predicted next year will be on the scale of the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic. Keeping in light the constant mutation of the virus and the absence of a 100% successful vaccine, that prediction appears to carry some weight.

He cited evidence from the 1918 pandemic which saw between 25-40 million deaths. To put things into perspective, the population of Taiwan was 3 million then, 25,000 died in the pandemic. Should the pandemic occur, the deaths and panic that will follow will reach 10 times the level of that seen during the SARS outbreak.

The Minister reiterated the importance of preventive measures. The government has already shifted the issue to be placed high on the agenda, however the Taiwanese people need not be unduly alarmed as the government is doing all that they can.
 

New Freedom

Veteran Member
Shakey, those Boxon reports are something!!! Some 'food for thought' possibly? If those numbers are right, then, holy crap!!!!
 

rodeorector

Global Moderator
We are woefully unprepared to battle the Avian Flu in the U.S. Can you imagine how pathetic those third world countries must be?
 
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<B><center><font size=+1 color=brown>China reports 10th and 11th outbreaks among birds this month</font>

Tuesday, November 15, 2005
<A href="http://www.internationalsos.com/members_home/pandemicpreparedness/index.cfm?content_id=77&language_id=ENG">www.internationalsos.com</A>

China has reported nine outbreaks of avian flu within a month, and today announced that two additional areas are affected. Both Zepu and Urumqi are remote desert regions in the western region of Xinjiang. </B></center>
The other 9 areas recently affected have been in northern, eastern and central China. The nation has announced plans to vaccinate all of its 14 billion domestic birds against avian flu. The national government pledged to cover 50 to 80 percent of vaccination costs.
 
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[This is a much better break down on the Chinese Human H5N1 fatalities.(than the first article has). So I'll post it as an addition to the one above. B-h is Bird to Human H-H is Human to Human].


<B><center>Tuesday, 15 November 2005 7:48 am EST Category:
iFlu.org comment
<font size=+1 color=green>310 dead from bird flu in China?</font>

<A href="http://www.iflu.org/?p=9263">iflu.org</A>

The unofficial Chinese news site Boxun.com, which was the first to break news about SARS in China, yesterday published a detailed breakdown of human bird flu infections in the country, including claims that there has been human to human spread, widespread quarantine, and at least 310 deaths so far this year. If true, the report would be the first indication that the situation in the country is far more serious than the Chinese government is willing to admit. China officially claims to have had no human infections.</B></center>
Translations of the report have been provided by two members of CurEvent's 'Flu Clinic' - one literal and one in more flowing prose - but both tell the same story:

Official from Ministry of Health Reveals 2005 Human Case Figures for Avian Influenza Outbreak in China
(Boxun Disclaimer)
Since 2004, China has been continually plagued by Avian Influenza outbreaks of varying degrees and unverified reports of infection. In 2005, some of these outbreaks attracted the attention of the outside world. However, these outbreaks are not as straightforward as what is perceived by the world at large. Due to the deployment of the PLA to the epidemic zones, the Chinese Ministry of Health has been able to gain some form of control and organisation over the dissemination of information to the rest of the world. And although they have ostensibly allowed the entry of external health experts into the epidemic zones to conduct their investigations, they will still be bound by arrangements and rules dictated by the Chinese and hence their perception of the situation there would not accurately reflect the actual events that had occurred.

Currently, the Avian Influenza problem in China is very grave. Over the course of the outbreaks, Chinese officials have been briefed on the procedures to follow in order to control the outbreak the the spread of information. The Chinese Central Military Committee has directed that all suspect and confirmed cases of Avian Influenza infections be sent to specialized hospitals. Notifications must be sent to a higher centralized authority. They have also strictly prohibited any Chinese health officials to privately speak to the foreign media. If it is discovered that they have done so, they will be sacked immediately. There must be no mention made of the H5N1 virus in the cause of death of those who have succumbed to the virus. Patients who seek treatment for respiratory problems in non-designated hospitals will not be allowed to claim insurance or medical expenses.

(The statistical model used appears to be almost the same as that used during the previous Shenzhen Ebola outbreak)

Province Number Deaths Number Infected Number Quarantined Number Disappeared Mode of Transmission
Qinghai 143 131 961 - 13 B-H, H-H
Xinjiang 18 35 340 - 6 B-H, H-H
Inner Mongolia 28 9 149 - 2 B-H, H-H
Xichang 7 15 177 - 9 B-H, H-H
Sichuan 0 12 39 - 0 B-H
Hunan 8 4 17 - 0 B-H, H-H
Hubei 25 297 1,524 - 4 B-H, H-H
Guangdong 6 47 66 - 6 B-H
Fujian 2 13 9 - 11 B-H
Jiangxi 1 0 7 - 0 B-H
Zhejiang 0 0 13 - 0
Jiangsu 0 0 21 - 0
Hunan 0 0 57 - 0
Hebei 0 0 21 - 0
Liaoning 69 237 2,076 - 2 B-H, H-H
Jilin 0 19 30 0 B-H
Heilongjiang 0 23 9 - 0 B-H
Hainan 0 0 6 - 0
Yunnan 0 3 0 - 0 B-H
Gansu 1 0 7 - 0 B-H
Ningxia 0 3 0 - 0 B-H
Shaanxi 2 0 0 - 0 B-H
Shandong 0 0 4 - 0
Anhui 0 6 21 - 0 B-H

Although accurate till 12th November, these case figures are constantly changing. Also, since the cases figures have been collated by the Central State Council, they would have reduced it somewhat, and hence, the actual figures may be higher.

Currently, the situation in China is severe. Human to human transmission has occurred and affected personnel have been quarantined for long periods. Death figures are noticeably higher in B-H transmission regions. The situation has been gradually brought under control although it still remains critical.
It should be noted that these figures are thought to be cumulative totals to 12 November 2005, although the use of the present tense would suggest that the situation is on-going. B-H refers to transmission from bird to human, H-H refers to human to human transmission. The number quarantined is believed to refer to current number of people in quarantine. The number disappeared is thought to mean the number of people who have broken the quarantine.

This is the original chart published by Boxun:
(see the link above - for chinese language version of chart)
 

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
Go Shakey... you got da balls! Thanks for your vigilance.

I really don't think TPTB want this info getting out, at least not yet.

Dead Infected Isolated Missing

310 .... 852 .... >5000 .... 55

:vik:
 

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Renork

Membership Revoked
bump

last night the show on discovery channel one of the experts said if h-h goes more than 30ish people out it would be near impossible to controll.
 

Robin Hood

Veteran Member
I appreciate your attention Shakey to your detail and diligence in a very important thread. You do us all a great service.

rh
 
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It now appears that China is *upping* the tonnage of tamiflu type doesages that they are sending to Vietnam


<B><font size=+1 color=red><center>China, Vietnam Jump Into Fight Against Bird Flu</font>

By MARGIE MASON

Tuesday, November 15, 2005 Posted at 2:36 PM EST

<A href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20051115.wbirdflu1115/BNStory/International/">Associated Press </A>

Hanoi — Two of the countries hardest hit by bird flu announced extreme measures to fight the disease Tuesday, with China promising to vaccinate its entire poultry stock of 14 billion birds and Vietnam launching a campaign to purge its two largest cities of poultry.</B></center>
Jia Youling, chief veterinary officer in China's Agriculture Ministry, said China is in the process of vaccinating all poultry in the country. He said the government will pay all fees involved, but he did not provide any details of how officials would carry out the vaccinations.

It was unclear if the birds were being vaccinated against the virulent H5N1 bird flu strain that has ravaged poultry stocks across Asia and killed at least 64 people since 2003.

China has more than 14 billion farm poultry, accounting for nearly 21 per cent of the world's total. Millions of birds have already been vaccinated in the country because of previous outbreaks.

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The announcement came as China confirmed two new outbreaks of the bird flu. More than 6,500 chickens were found infected in Urumqi and Zepu counties in the northwest Xinjiang region on Nov. 9, and more than 2,700 died, said Roy Wadia, a World Health Organization spokesman in Beijing, citing the Agriculture Ministry.

While China has not reported a human case of the disease, experts warn that it is inevitable if the government cannot stop repeated outbreaks in poultry. Eleven poultry outbreaks have been reported in the country in the past month.

China “still faces some problems in bird flu prevention and control system, especially at the grassroots level,” Mr. Jia said, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. “China has a lot of backyard-bred poultry. Some farmers pay no attention to the disease.”

In Vietnam, meanwhile, government officials in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi have warned farmers to kill or sell all poultry by Monday. They will be compensated at half the current market value if they act now, but birds found alive after the deadline will be destroyed with no compensation, officials said.

“We hope that clearing out live poultry in the city will help minimize the chances of people getting sick from bird flu,” said Huynh Hu Loi, director of Ho Chi Minh City's animal health department. “A pandemic can happen any time. We are doing all we can.”

The campaign is one of the most extreme measures taken in Vietnam to try to slow the H5N1 virus. The country has experienced a surge in poultry outbreaks over the past few weeks, with the latest human death reported last week.

On Tuesday, China said it would also ship 45 tonnes of bird-flu vaccine to Vietnam.

International health experts have warned that the flu virus could mutate into a form easily spread among humans, igniting a global pandemic. So far, most human cases have been traced to contact with infected birds.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization has encouraged countries to vaccinate birds while practising other control methods, such as mass slaughtering and the controlled movement of poultry in and around infected areas.

In Indonesia, European Union Health Commissioner Markos Kyprianou urged the international community on Tuesday to help the cash-strapped country vaccinate poultry and kill infected birds to fight the disease.

On Monday, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said Indonesia does not have the funds to compensate farmers for destroying their flocks.
 
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<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>Bird flu could cut US poultry demand by 50 pct-USDA</font>

Nov 15, 2005 —

<A href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=1315720&page=2">ABC.News</A>

By Christopher Doering

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A U.S. outbreak of the deadly strain of bird flu could set off a panic among consumers and temporarily slash domestic poultry consumption by as much as 50 percent, or about $10 billion annually, a U.S. Agriculture Department researcher told Reuters on Tuesday. </B></center>
The United States is the world's largest producer and exporter of poultry meat with chicken, turkey and duck production valued at about $23 billion annually.

"It could be 50 percent," USDA researcher David Swayne said in an interview when asked how much domestic consumption would fall if the virulent H5N1 strain of bird flu was found in the United States. "It would drop a large percent just because of consumer confidence lost," he said.

In 2006, the United States is forecast to produce nearly 36 billion pounds of chickens, according to USDA.

Poultry exports from the United States range between $1.7 billion and $2.5 billion annually, or 8 percent to 15 percent of total production, according to USDA figures. The rest is consumed domestically.

The H5N1 strain of avian influenza is known to have killed 64 people in Asia and forced some 150 million birds worldwide to be destroyed. It recently spread to Eastern Europe and is expected to move into the Middle East and Africa.

While researchers and some government officials have downplayed the risk of the disease ever reaching the United States, there is a chance it could enter through migratory birds or smuggled birds carried in illegally.

In countries where the deadly H5N1 strain has been discovered, consumption of chicken has dropped dramatically and exports virtually halted.

"Many countries who are trading partners would immediately put up an embargo" if the United States discovered H5N1, said Swayne. But if the United States can show that the disease is confined to one area, trading partners might ease any embargo, he added.

Last year 1.8 million birds were tested for avian influenza in the United States, many before they were exported, according to USDA. It is common for mild and low pathogenic strains of bird flu, which are not harmful to humans, to appear in the United States and other countries.

The USDA has already taken precautions, banning imports of live birds and eggs from infected countries and requiring all imported birds to be quarantined and tested for the virus before entering the country.
 

PCViking

Lutefisk Survivor
China admits to one case...

China says boy tests positive for bird flu- HK paper
15 Nov 2005 23:24:08 GMT

Source: Reuters

HONG KONG, Nov 16 (Reuters) - A senior Chinese official says H5N1 antibodies have been detected in a nine-year-old boy in Hunan province, the first admission of a human bird flu infection in China, the South China Morning Post reported on Wednesday.

The paper, quoting Qi Xiaoqiu, director of the Ministry of Health's department of disease control, said the government was waiting for the results of a joint investigation with the World Health Organisation before confirming whether the boy was the first human case of avian influenza on the mainland.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/HKG188338.htm

:vik:
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
PCViking said:
China says boy tests positive for bird flu- HK paper
15 Nov 2005 23:24:08 GMT

Source: Reuters

HONG KONG, Nov 16 (Reuters) - A senior Chinese official says H5N1 antibodies have been detected in a nine-year-old boy in Hunan province, the first admission of a human bird flu infection in China, the South China Morning Post reported on Wednesday.

The paper, quoting Qi Xiaoqiu, director of the Ministry of Health's department of disease control, said the government was waiting for the results of a joint investigation with the World Health Organisation before confirming whether the boy was the first human case of avian influenza on the mainland.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/HKG188338.htm

:vik:

I heard this mentioned on the news. It also mentioned his sister died a month? ago from "flu-like symptoms". found this link from an Australian paper.

http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,17265256%5E1702,00.html

The boy, from Xiangtan county in Hunan province, fell ill around the same time as his sister, 12, died after showing bird flu-like symptoms last month. The siblings reportedly ate infected chicken.


she was cremated shortly after her death, so they can't go back and check if she had "bird flu".
 

almost ready

Inactive
Shakey a quick review

Thanks again for taking the time to keep us abreast of the changes. It is a draining activity. After 911, I spent 2-4 hours a day for 2 years looking for any sign of outbreaks and reporting them to Dr. Doyle, knowing the USgov reads her site. After that, it appeared that, in big cities anyway, there is excellent systematic watching of symtoms (counting sneezes in the subway) that might indicate such outbreaks. But it is draining and not the best of daily meditations!

We are reaching the worrisome stage. It appears that Tamiflu, in the suggested doses, isn't going to contain anything.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07180501/H5N1_In_Vivo_Tamiflu.html

And there seems to be a growing chorus of "don't worry be happy" guys who insist there is no illness, it's all a government plot! Or "we don't know nothing about viruses, it's all a scam". Now I suppose this is inevitable. People are such strange and foolish creatures sometimes. So often the ones who shout the loudest are the ones who know the least about a subject. Have you read the story of the Great Plague? One of the greatest books ever, by Daniel Defoe lived through it as a child and interviewed everyone for years he could, then wrote the book. It sure tells it straight, how people get crazy when they feel threatened. Also about heroes who stay rational and courageous. It's a free EBOOK! text:

http://etext.library.adelaide.edu.au/d/defoe/daniel/d31j/
audio

http://www.gutenberg.org/catalog/world/results

also you can find it for ipods and just about anything else by googling.

So it seems from following bird flu since the first Hong Kong outbreak 7-8 years ago, that it has just taken its time and become endemic to the region.rememeber those videos of dogs tearing open the black plastic sacks of dead birds even as the men in masks were throwing them into the landfills?...and now the human cases and clusters are being vastly underreported, due to overstringent WHO rules on repeat tests which severely are mismatched to inadequate health care systems. It's almost as if they conspired to hide the truth, although not the case. WHO needed some standards and the people involved just couldn't reach the bar by the fact of physical on-the-ground limitations, even in obvious clusters in capital city hospitals.

Like you, I believe that this thing is real, it's coming fast, and we need to get a grip NOW. Preps for a long stay at home are absolutely a must. Also to get a stock of sports drinks with electrolytes to keep the very sick hydrated. Veggy soup for recovery periods. And one thing our good Doctor has had us do during recoveries. Cook potatoes, skins on, in water (not too much salt) and then drink the water. It nourishes and creates the right pH -- it was a miracle for my husband last year late in a severe bout of flu. We will do that again for sure.

Also a good time to reread Back to Eden about the baths. A good bath can do wonders keeping a spiking fever from getting fatal in a pinch....
 

Swampthing

Inactive
Shakey said:
-
I am going to post a Boxun report on the current status of H5N1 in China. As you know (if you have followed the H5N1 news, that is. China is infamous about *not* releasing anything on H5N1 - or any other disease for that matter. Boxun has, in the past given out *good* information concerning Avian Flu in China; and what it is doing to the Chinese population in the infected provinces.

I have been following their reports for quite a spell now. And I believe that the Tbers just might like to know what things reportedly to be really like, with respect to H5N1 - avian flu - behind the "Bamboo Curtain"...

<i>please note the mention of the <B>PLA</b> in the article, they are, of course, The People's liberation Army...</i>


<B><center>Official from Ministry of Health Reveals 2005 Human Case Figures for Avian Influenza Outbreak in China</B></center>

Nov 12 2005

<A href="http://www.peacehall.com/news/gb/china/2005/11/200511142123.shtml">(Boxun Disclaimer) Human English translation from Mandarin Chinese </A>

Since 2004, China has been continually plagued by Avian Influenza outbreaks of varying degrees and unverified reports of infection. In 2005, some of these outbreaks attracted the attention of the outside world. However, these outbreaks are not as straightforward as what is perceived by the world at large.

(something to this effect, I think, can't be sure. mandarin's only my 2nd language.)

Due to the deployment of the PLA to the epidemic zones, the Chinese Ministry of Helath has been able to gain some form of control and organisation over the dissemination of information to the rest of the world. And although they have ostensibly allowed the entry of external health experts into the epidemic zones to conduct their investigations, they will still be bound by arrangements and rules dictated by the Chinese and hence their perception of the situtation there would not accurately reflect the actual events that had occured.

Currently, the Avian Influenza problem in China is very grave. Over the course of the outbreaks, Chinese officials have been briefed on the procedures to follow in order to control the outbreak the the spread of information. The Chinese Central Military Committee has directed that all suspect and confirmed cases of Avian Influenza infections be sent to specialized hospitals. Notifications must be sent to a higher centralized authority. They have also strictly prohibited any Chinese health officials to privately speak to the foreign media. If it is discovered that they have done so, they will be sacked immediately. There must be no mention made of the H5N1 virus in the cause of death of those who have succumbed to the virus. Patients who seek treatment for respiratory problems in non-designated hospitals will not be allowed to claim insurance or medical expenses.

(The statistical model used appears to be almost the same as that used during the previous Shenzhen Ebola outbreak)

(I've re-worked the table as i don't know how to post tables)

(B-H Bird to Human = H-H Human to Human)

Province: Qinghai
Number Deaths:143
Number Infected: 131
Number Quarantined: 961
Number Disappeared: 13
Mode of Transmission: B-H, H-H.

Province: Xinjiang
Number Deaths:18
Number Infected: 35
Number Quarantined: 340
Number Disappeared: 6
Mode of Transmission: B-H, H-H.

Province: Inner Mongolia
Number Deaths:28
Number Infected: 9
Number Quarantined: 149
Number Disappeared: 2
Mode of Transmission: B-H, H-H.

Province: Xichang
Number Deaths:7
Number Infected: 15
Number Quarantined: 177
Number Disappeared: 9
Mode of Transmission: B-H, H-H.

Province: Sichuan
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 12
Number Quarantined: 39
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission: B-H

Province: Hunan
Number Deaths:8
Number Infected: 4
Number Quarantined: 17
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission: B-H, H-H.

Province: Hubei
Number Deaths:25
Number Infected: 297
Number Quarantined: 1524
Number Disappeared: 4
Mode of Transmission: B-H, H-H.

Province: Guangdong
Number Deaths:6
Number Infected: 47
Number Quarantined: 66
Number Disappeared: 6
Mode of Transmission: B-H.

Province: Fujian
Number Deaths:2
Number Infected: 13
Number Quarantined: 9
Number Disappeared: 11
Mode of Transmission: B-H.

Province: Jiangxi
Number Deaths:1
Number Infected:0
Number Quarantined: 7
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission: B-H.

Province: Zhejiang
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 0
Number Quarantined: 13
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission:

Province: Jiangsu
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 0
Number Quarantined: 21
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission:

Province: Hunan
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 0
Number Quarantined: 57
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission:

Province: Hebei
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 0
Number Quarantined: 21
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission:

Province: Liaoning
Number Deaths:69
Number Infected: 237
Number Quarantined: 2076
Number Disappeared: 2
Mode of Transmission: B-H, H-H.

Province: Jilin
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 19
Number Quarantined: 30
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission: B-H.

Province: Heilongjiang
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 23
Number Quarantined: 9
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission: B-H.

Province: Hainan
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 0
Number Quarantined: 6
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission:

Province: Yunnan
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 3
Number Quarantined: 0
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission: B-H.

Province: Gansu
Number Deaths:1
Number Infected: 0
Number Quarantined: 7
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission: B-H.

Province: Ningxia
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 3
Number Quarantined: 0
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission: B-H.

Province: Shaanxi
Number Deaths:2
Number Infected: 0
Number Quarantined: 0
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission: B-H.

Province: Shandong
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 0
Number Quarantined: 4
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission:

Province: Anhui
Number Deaths:0
Number Infected: 6
Number Quarantined: 21
Number Disappeared: 0
Mode of Transmission: B-H.

Although accurate till 12th November, these case figures are constantly changing. Also, since the cases figures have been collated by the Central State Council, they would have reduced it somewhat, and hence, the actual figures may be higher.

Currently, the situation in China is severe. Human to human transmission has occurred and affected personnel have been quarantined for long periods. Death figures are noticeably higher in B-H transmission regions. The situation has been gradually brought under control although it still remains critical.


Say it ain't so!
 

toner

Membership Revoked
Shakey said:
<A href="http://www.peacehall.com/news/gb/china/2005/11/200511142123.shtml">(Boxun Disclaimer) Human English translation from Mandarin Chinese </A>

Maybe Shakey translated the Chinese himself...

BTW, is there an un-human english?
 
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