JohnGaltfla
#NeverTrump
Gang, I'm going to use all of the sites that I refer to and try to make one thread summarizing them. I was going to take a break from heavy posting, but I have to agree with Steve Quayle. This is going to have far more impact than I originally thought and information is crucial. I'll share as much as I can, and we'll all go from there.
To those directly affected by this storm, you have my prayers.
Sites used for these updates:
www.oil.com
www.rigzone.com
www.theoildrum.com
www.bloomberg.com
and others I subscribe to via word of mouth and my numerous links and friends.
First some insight:
Eglin AFB here in Florida is rationing gas: $20 per vehicle limit
Insiders report:
More rig info:
From Stratfor and sources:
To those directly affected by this storm, you have my prayers.
Sites used for these updates:
www.oil.com
www.rigzone.com
www.theoildrum.com
www.bloomberg.com
and others I subscribe to via word of mouth and my numerous links and friends.
First some insight:
Eglin AFB here in Florida is rationing gas: $20 per vehicle limit
Insiders report:
A report from an anonymous insider
Posted by Prof. Goose in Supply/Production
Tue Aug 30 at 1:43 PM EST
A synopsis of oil company reports from an anonymous source I consider credible. All below the fold.
There's more... (380 words) | Comments (34) | Permalink
We still cannot get people into the affected areas, so most production is remaining shut-in. Several platforms were left running on timers which will or have expired, allowing them to shut-in. There is no available phone service or power in the coastal areas east of ICY. Most generator systems will need to be purged and the fuel checked for water before even emergency power can be started. Mobil phone service is very patchy at best, and the landlines into Lafayette are overworked - please keep your communications at a minimum until further notice. Phones are non-existent from the Atchafalaya Basin eastward.
We will continue to try and get fueling stations up and running to allow us to field helicopters, but right now everything must be flown out of ICY or westward, and the standard fuel depots are not running or no longer in existence. We are extremely limited in the areas we can survey until fuel depots and heliports are up and running again.
From a helo pilot:
I just heard from our flight, which we sent to Venice and Fourchon for a look. There is a single building standing in Venice. The fuel tank is nearby but floating, along with huge amounts of debris from everywhere. All the nearby docks, boats and barges appear destroyed. There is lots of water inside the levees and destruction everywhere you look.
Fourchon looks OK at first glance. The roads even APPEAR POSSIBLY passable. The airport at Golden Meadow looks OK but no-one was around and there was no electricity. I know for a fact they have generators so we may be able to get fuel there later in the day. If our base fuel tank survived and the fuel is not contaminated, we have extra generators and will be trying to get that fuel system going. If Fourchon survived the fuel system on platform X might have as well.
Flight following will be a big problem. I will probably launch a small helo to orbit near GM to relay flight plans. Just for information, the Sikorsky that was abandoned at our base just before the storm hit is floating upside down on our heliport.
MMS report for today finally out (conveniently after main energy markets close LOL). Compare to yesterdays -- shut in/off line %'s went UP.
http://www.mms.gov/ooc/press/2005/press0830.htm
Today's shut-in oil production is 1,427,969 BOPD. This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 95.20% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD.
Today's shut-in gas production is 8.798 BCFPD. This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 87.99% of the daily gas production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 10 BCFPD.
The cumulative shut-in oil production for the period 8/26/05-8/30/05 is 4,635,751 bbls, which is equivalent to 0.847% of the yearly production of oil in the GOM (approximately 547.5 million barrels).
The cumulative shut-in gas production for the period 8/26/05-8/30/05 is 25.441 BCF, which is equivalent to 0.697% of the yearly production of gas in the GOM (approximately 3.65 TCF).
More rig info:
Rowan can't locate its Rowan-New Orleans rig post-Katrina (RDC) By Carolyn Pritchard
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Rowan Cos. Inc. (RDC) said Tuesday that it's unable to locate its Rowan-New Orleans rig in the wake of Hurricane Katrina and fears it may have capsized and sunk offshore Louisiana. The rig was insured for $8.5 million and had a carrying value of $7.4 million, the company said. Rowan said its other rigs in the area appear to have sustained minimal damage but a complete evaluation of their condition will require a closer inspection from the company's drilling personnel.
From Stratfor and sources:
August 30, 2005 16 50 GMT
As floodwaters from Lake Pontchartrain poured into New Orleans Aug. 30 -- the result of two major breaches in the city's levee system a day after Hurricane Katrina narrowly missed a direct hit on the city -- serious concerns that Stratfor raised as Katrina barreled though the Gulf of Mexico have returned.
Among the most pressing concerns is the status of the Mississippi River. Although Katrina veered slightly just before making landfall, the storm did strike the river's mouth head on. With the water level low due to a drought in the Midwest, the lower reaches of the delta could no longer be navigable.
In effect, the rising waters will prevent New Orleans from serving as a base of operations for rescue/recovery/assessment operations, meaning focus must now be shifted to the situation south of the city -- areas that will be cut off from substantial assistance for a few days as the U.S. government stretches its resources to get to the tens of thousands of people still stranded in New Orleans.
Over the next few hours, Stratfor will assess the situation in southern Louisiana with an eye on addressing key questions -- the answers to which will determine the status of the entire import-export infrastructure of the middle section of the United States, as well as the status of the energy infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico.
As of now, the key questions are:
1. As the U.S. grain harvest gets under way, where are the grain storage facilities in this area -- and what has become of them?
2. Has silt build-up on the Mississippi River affected its navigability -- and thus affected shipments? The U.S. Coast Guard reports that most efforts up to now are focusing on search and rescue, although it is attempting to move several ships that have run aground. Furthermore, some survey work has begun at mile marker 507 and below, where the Coast Guard has located several smaller sunken ships. The initial survey is expected to be completed within 24 hours.
3. What is the status of Grande Isle, the city on the Gulf that services the oil industry, and of Port Fourchon, the onshore transfer point for the oil off-loading facility known as the LOOP?
4. What is the status of the Port of South Louisiana and the Port of New Orleans?
New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin said earlier Aug. 30 that 80 percent of the city already is flooding. As the waters rise, so do the threats to the U.S. economy.
The roundtrip mileage is around 3000 mi. as we will be meandering on the way there and back. So, the Saturn Vue we'll be driving gets 25 mpg highway, that means we'll need about 120 gallons of regular unleaded for the trip. If prices go up to $3.50 per gallon, that's only $420. Still cheaper than airfare and car rental. Even if prices go up to $5 a gallon, we would still go. My only concern has been availability due to rationing. If they're tapping into the NPR, then it sounds like we're good, for a little while anyway.