Will There Be a Stockmarket Crash on Aug. 29th(Monday)? Fibonacci Ratio says Yes!

Hang On Monday
http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm


Three huge events took place on Friday which bear amplification, and even perhaps a little bit of nail biting if you care to, over the weekend.



The first is that Hurricane Katrina may have decided to fill in my neighbor's new pond in East Texas by taking a sudden tack southward. The problem is that at the present projections, the storm could hit the Louisiana Coast, or worse, could come storming up the Houston ship channel and up into East Texas. But we should have a better bead on that Sunday.



The second thing that might give you that tightening sphincter feeling is that the market closed with a negative tick - down to more than -200 on the close. This is no doubt driven by Alan Greenspan's confusion over what to do next as upward interest pressures are being short circuited by crashing consumer confidence which dropped more than 7 points in a month.



The third thing, and it's maybe a bit "out there" is the outlook of our fractal whiz who says "Hang on" for potentially rough sledding Monday:

"George, an ideal Fibonacci ratio length third fractal growth sequence was completed on Friday 26 August 2005.

The fractal evolution since October 2002 strongly suggests that there are very real and very simple quantum number fractal laws that underlie the macroeconomy. This discovery will be little consolation to the turmoil that is about to unfold over the next decade.

August 24 (Wednesday's) and August 25 (Thursday's) trading days once again demonstrated on a 5 minute unit fractal level, the recurrent precise fractal theme of x/2.5x/2x-2.5x - that pervades the economic universe.

For the Wilshire 5000 the base was about 17 five minute units. The three sequential growth fractals were 17/42/34 of 34 before the fall on Friday morning. The lateral 'skeletonized' evolution of this fractal sequence suggests the final lower (very lower) high is close at hand. Friday August 26 is the Fibonacci 85th day of a 52/130/85 daily sequence dating since August 2004.

1.62 times 52 equals 84.24 days.... If growth sequences follow idealized Fibonacci related fractals, Monday 29 August 2005 will see a nonlinear lower break in the equities.

For oil next week, week 52 will complete its third growth fractal and its ideal maximal growth fractal sequence: 21/52/52 of 42-52. This maximal growth fractal will be coincidentally timed with Katrina's hurricane winds slamming into US gulf oil rigs. Timed with Katrina is an evolving economic deluge. Gary Lammert http://www.economicfractalist.com/ "

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Here are some sites to explore concerning the coming Deflationary Depression





George Ure Urban Survival http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

Stephen Roach http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

FallStreet Feed http://www.fallstreet.com/fallstfeed.htm

The Cato Institute http://www.cato.org/

Save Haven http://www.safehaven.com/

The Grandfather Report http://mwhodges.home.att.net/

The Economist http://www.economy.com/dismal/

Lugwig von Mises institute http://www.mises.org/

Big Charts http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/

Sharelynx historical charts http://www.sharelynx.com/

Yahoo charts http://finance.yahoo.com/

Oil Reserves http://www.daviesand.com/Perspectives/Forest_Products/Oil_Reserves/

Moore¹s Longterm charts http://www.mrci.com/pdf/charts.asp

CBO US out year Budget projections http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=1944&sequence=0

Past year US GDP¹s http://www.eh.net/hmit/gdp/

US Historical Household incomes http://www.census.gov/hhes/income/histinc/h06ar.html

Global Financial Picture http://www.un.org/reports/financing/profile.htm

TFC Commodity Charts http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/

Prudent Bear http://www.prudentbear.com/

Depression2.TV http://www.depression2.tv/week/index.html

Current World Quoteshttp://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

There are many reasons why the Stock Market will crash (soon we think). The Kondratief Wave; the Elliot Wave Principle; the mass mania investor psychology; the spiriling individual debt; the U.S now a debtor nation as opposed to being a creditor nation; off the Gold standard; and numerous others, some are:.

Highest recorded financial leveraging in the stock market ever.
Low savings in the American public, highest financial debt ever.
Record number of bankruptcies.
Record number of credit card defaults.
Foreign banks, etc. holding glut of American debt.
Capital goods are under-invested in.
Consumer debt highest in history.
Fiat banking and credit schemes creating worst debt in U.S. history

All these--and more--predict a new great crash is looming around the corner.


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The author of the article I just posted says it's going to happen early next week. Whether that's so or not, is merely speculation. However, as I've stated many times, sometime within the next two months, the bottom is going to fall out. Get ready.

What will Greenspan's legacy be? Will he have been the architect of the largest speculative boom and bust in the history of the world? His words tell us what is on his mind...............

Greenspan: 'Dont trust paper wealth'
"Greenspan, however, said people shouldn't count on that paper wealth, which can evaporate if economic conditions deteriorate rapidly."
http://apnews.excite.com/article/20.../D8C7NANO1.html

GOT PREPS? Hard Assets that are useful in everyday living? If not, why not?

Doctor....thanks for the info. I notice you always provide very good info. Where do you find the time to do all the reasearch?

What you are about to read is not woo woo. Esoteric, yes..........strange, probably........but read on.



http://www.phxnews.com/fullstory.php?article=24509

________________________________________ October 19, 1987 -22.6% October 28, 1929 -12.8% October 29, 1929 -11.7% November 6, 1929 -9.9% August 12, 1932 -8.4% October 26, 1987 -8.0% July 21, 1933 -7.84% October 18, 1937 -7.75% October 27, 1997 -7.16% October 5, 1932 -7.15% September 24, 1931 -7.07% As can be seen in the table above, nine of the eleven largest one day percentage declines in the DJIA occurred in October or just before and after that black month. Is this pattern about to repeat? If so, the stock market crash will likely ensue after the DJIA breaks below 10,000. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Note: The stockmarket may never crash..........yet the economy could hit the skids bigtime. If one looks at what happened in Argentina, after the collapse of their economy, their markets roared back in record time...............yet the people were poor as dirt, and their economy is still trying to recover from what happened to them.

This is not the time to hold paper. This is the time to hold things that are useful, and may be of value to others........Here's what happened to in the Argentinian poliltical arena. Note, their economy collapsed early in 2001.


Argentina: Congress grants Cavallo emergency powers
Wall Street's man in charge
By Bill Vann
28 March 2001

After nearly three years of recession and facing a desperate foreign debt crisis, Argentina's Congress has voted to grant emergency powers to Domingo Cavallo, the newly installed economy minister and author of previous economic plans that plunged the country into a downward spiral of poverty, unemployment and homelessness.

As Cavallo was sworn in last week, teachers, airline employees and other public sector workers struck throughout Argentina, protesting what is certain to be a new onslaught against jobs, education, health care and what remains of the country's social welfare system.

With the appointment of Cavallo, President Fernando De la Rua is effectively retreating to become a figurehead chief of state, with real power delegated to his new minister, a trusted defender of Argentina's most powerful moneyed interests as well as the international banks.


The plan was credited with bringing down triple-digit inflation, at the cost of driving the official unemployment rate to 18.5 percent, bringing much of domestic industry to a grinding halt and driving the country's foreign debt to astronomical heights. Opposition to Cavallo's policies led to mass strikes and protests, ultimately forcing his resignation in 1996.

De la Rua's government has failed miserably in its promise to reduce the unemployment crisis created under the Menem regime, with the official jobless rate now standing at 14.7 percent. Nothing has been done to ameliorate the blows delivered by the privatizations of the electricity, telephone and health systems and other public sector enterprises in the 1990s, which wiped out hundreds of thousands of jobs, while forcing working class families to pay out even more for essential services.

The past year and a half have seen only an intensification of poverty, with one out of every four inhabitants of Buenos Aires, the nation's capital, officially classified as poor. While Argentina's ruling class long prided itself on having avoided the stark polarization between wealth and poverty that prevails throughout the rest of Latin America, both homelessness and violent crime have become commonplace in Buenos Aires in recent years.

Older professional workers have seen their careers destroyed or their pay reduced to a pittance, forcing them to work as taxi drivers or waiters in order to survive. For the young, the predominant aspiration is to emigrate to Europe or the United States.

De la Rua has presided over continuing social service cuts, while pushing through tax increases that have fallen heaviest on Argentine working people, as well as a new labor law granting employers greater power to cut wages and lay off workers.

The country's foreign debt is over $150 billion and is consuming more than $12 billion annually in interest alone. The International Monetary Fund granted the country a $40 billion emergency loan in December with the aim of staving off default and propping up not only Argentina, but also the beleaguered “emerging markets” internationally. The loan was conditioned on the Argentine government implementing a new package of drastic austerity measures, aimed at cutting public sector jobs and wages, slashing pensions and imposing new labor codes on the working class.

Popular outrage over the plan forced a breakup of the alliance between De la Rua's Radical Party and Frepaso, a coalition of left-nationalist and reformist groups, many of them spun off by the rightward lurch of Peronism. Four Frepaso ministers resigned after Cavallo's predecessor, Ricardo Lopez Murphy, who lasted just two weeks in office, unveiled a harsh plan that would have cut public spending by $4.5 billion and axed 80,000 public sector jobs.

Apparently aiming to consolidate political power before revealing what measures he will implement, Cavallo has proposed a new “Law of Competition,” which he claims will boost local industry. His plan, he said, “will increase competition and inspire growth” through pro-big business tax cuts.

The new economy minister has also said he will bypass the IMF to negotiate Argentina's debt directly with the Bush administration's Treasury Department. Despite his popularity in US Republican circles, there is no reason to believe that Cavallo can strike a better deal with Washington, which has been the principal advocate of the international lending agency's hard-line policies.

The political crisis unfolded as Argentines marked the twenty-fifth anniversary of the US-backed military coup that ushered in the most savage regime in the country's history. Demonstrations were held throughout the country repudiating the crimes of the dictatorship and remembering the 30,000 “disappeared” who were murdered by the regime.

The demand for emergency powers for Cavallo, himself a former official of that blood-soaked regime, carries with it the implicit threat of a return to dictatorial forms of rule. The attempt to insulate economic policy from legislative disapproval is, in the final analysis, an attempt to prevent popular opposition from interfering with the policies that have already been dictated by the international banks. To the extent that this opposition assumes extra-parliamentary forms, the government will be driven to the methods of military repression.

Argentina is Latin America's third-largest economy and the political and economic crisis gripping the country has profound implications for the entire continent and indeed all of the so-called emerging countries. With Argentina accounting for up to 25 percent of all tradable “emerging market” debt, a collapse of confidence in the Argentine economy would accelerate an already pronounced flow of capital from these areas, deepening their economic crisis and intensifying poverty, social polarization and class confrontation.

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Sound familiar? I strongly urge the reader to google 'argentina economic crisis, and get other views concerning what happened there. That way, you won't get a biased report........

Tiberius797 said:

Doctor....thanks for the info. I notice you always provide very good info. Where do you find the time to do all the reasearch?

Click to expand...

Well, there is the possibility that there's more than one of us!

Hey Doc,

regarding:

What will Greenspan's legacy be?

Click to expand...

We've all heard of Herbert Hoover even 76 years after the event (1st great Depression.)

That's Greenspan's legacy.

bv

Hey Doc, I like your posts and think you are pretty much on track with your economic ideas. That said, George Ure's resident fractalist is a resident failure to ever be accurate or right about ANY stock market call. If this guy is calling for a crash, the Dow will soar!

You cloned yourself??

cannoncocker said:

Hey Doc, I like your posts and think you are pretty much on track with your economic ideas. That said, George Ure's resident fractalist is a resident failure to ever be accurate or right about ANY stock market call. If this guy is calling for a crash, the Dow will soar!

Click to expand...

Myself, I'm not necessarily calling for a stockmarket crash, per se.........however, there will be a severe economic emergency coming up, probably in the month of October. This emergency will usher in the next great depression. Lately, the stockmarket has been thinly traded, and most of the participants have been 'professionals'. That being said, we know that even if an 'event' happens, the PPT would and will prevent and out and out collapse of the markets...........the worst case scenario, in my book would be a government 'holiday' for all stock and bond trades.......plus a bank holiday for a short period of time.

Also, I'm not an expert on esoteric stockmarket predictors like fractalism..............My philosophy is, anything can happen, for whatever reason...anytime.......anyplace.........

I feel that since the economy is so very feeble, there will be some event that puts it over the tipping point. Whatever the event is, history will look at that 'event' as the cause of the economic calamity. Of course, it won't be the cause...........

Lastly, I never rely on any one opinion for economic analysis. Many views are melded into one, giant, opinion which most times will have a doomer(esk) tone. If you go back in time and read my posts over the years, the theme is basically the same. Times are tough, and getting tougher.
Being prepared is the name of the game.........

bttt

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2002452766_gulfboom26.html

Read the article above...........the Arabs are pulling their cash out of the U.S. very quickly. The article goes into detail.

Here's a snippet of the article,

"But in the oil-rich countries of the Persian Gulf, Sept. 11 is increasingly viewed as the event that kicked off a galloping economy, when Arabs divested from America and reinvested at home."

"Arab investors pulled tens of billions of dollars out of the United States. They were angered by perceived American hostility toward Arabs. They worried their assets would be frozen by U.S. counterterror measures. And U.S. markets happened to be plummeting while economies in the Gulf were on the upswing, buoyed by rising oil prices."

So the question is, are the Arabs laughing all the way to the bank?

and finally this............

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050827/ap_on_re_us/drowning_in_debt

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050827/ap_on_re_us/drowning_in_debt

Experts Warn Debt May Threaten Economy
By ROBERT TANNER, AP National Writer 1 hour, 28 minutes ago
You owe $145,000. And the bill is rising every day. That's how much it would cost every American man, woman and child to pay the tab for the long-term promises the U.S. government has made to creditors, retirees, veterans and the poor.


And it's not even taking into account credit card bills, mortgages — all the debt we've racked up personally. Savings? The average American puts away barely $1 of every $100 earned.

Our profligate ways at home are mirrored in Washington and in the global marketplace, where as a society America spends $1.9 billion more a day on imported clothes and cars and gadgets than the entire rest of the world spends on its goods and services.

A new Associated Press/Ipsos poll finds that barely a third of Americans would cut spending to reduce the federal deficit and even fewer would raise taxes.
If those figures seem out of whack to you, if they seem to cut against the way you learned to handle money, if they seem like a recipe for a national economic nightmare — well, then, at least you're not alone.

A chorus of economists, government officials and elected leaders both conservative and liberal is warning that America's nonstop borrowing has put the nation on the road to a major fiscal disaster — one that could unleash plummeting home values, rocketing interest rates, lost jobs, stagnating wages and threats to government services ranging from health care to law enforcement.
David Walker, who audits the federal government's books as the U.S. comptroller general, put it starkly in an interview with the AP:

"I believe the country faces a critical crossroad and that the decisions that are made — or not made — within the next 10 years or so will have a profound effect on the future of our country, our children and our grandchildren. The problem gets bigger every day, and the tidal wave gets closer every day."


Alan Greenspan <http://search.news.yahoo.com/search/news/?p=Alan+Greenspan> echoed those worries just last week, warning that the federal budget deficit hampered the nation's ability to absorb possible shocks from the soaring trade deficit and the housing boom. He criticized the nation's "hesitancy to face up to the difficult choices that will be required to resolve our looming fiscal problems."

Certainly, there are those who feel such comments bring to mind the preachers who predict the end of the world at a specific time and place, and have always been wrong. And undeniably, borrowing isn't all bad — easy access to money has been a critical tool in building America's businesses, from mom-and-pops to multinationals.

But something has changed. More than two centuries ago, Benjamin Franklin warned: "He that goes aborrowing, goes asorrowing." Now, a laugh-til-you-cry commercial portrays a man with a beautiful home and car declaring: "I'm in debt up to my eyeballs. I can barely pay my finance charges. Somebody help me."
The epidemic of American indebtedness runs from home to government to global marketplace. To examine it, let's start at home.

Americans used to save, but no longer. Back in the 1950s, a generation of Americans who had survived the Depression and Second World War saved roughly 8 percent of their income. The savings rate rose and fell slightly over the decades — it went as high as 11 percent and as low as 7 percent during the "greed is good" 1980s — but now those days are only a memory.
In the charge-everything start of the new millennium, savings have plummeted: to just 1.8 percent last year, below 1 percent since January and at zero in the latest estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The lack of savings is mirrored by a rise in debt. In 2000, household debt broke 18 percent of disposable income for the first time in 20 years, meaning debt eats almost $1 in every $5 American families have to spend after they get past the bills that keep them fed and housed. (That figure hasn't dropped. Credit card debt alone averages $7,200 per household.)

Many people take comfort in the rising value of their homes, and its spurred record home-building and buying, with new construction making places like Las Vegas the fastest-growing in the nation. But a home translates into wealth only when you sell it — and there's a vigorous debate over whether the housing boom is becoming a bubble that will burst.

"It seems like, with the younger generation, that they want to have now what it took us years to get," says Jo Canelon, a 46-year-old social worker in Statenville, Ga.

"I see people younger than me with comparable jobs that drive new vehicles and have a boat and mortgage and things," says Canelon, who responded to the AP/Ipsos poll. "And I just wonder about their debt."

Canelon sees echoes in the rise of obesity: a pervasive I-want-it-now attitude no matter what the consequences. To her, debt's a symptom of disease, and one that's spreading.

If she's right, the government is sick, too.

Leaders are elected by the people they serve, of course, and the American people seem to want the best of both worlds — tax cuts and government services — while they hope the dollars sort themselves out. They worry about the nation's problems, but not enough to agree on a course of action to fix them.
The AP/Ipsos poll of 1,000 adults taken July 5-7 found that a sweeping majority — 70 percent — worried about the size of the federal deficit either "some" or "a lot."
But only 35 percent were willing to cut government spending and experience a drop in services to balance the budget. Even fewer — 18 percent — were willing to raise taxes to keep current services. Just 1 percent wanted to both raise taxes and cut spending. The poll has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
The nation's political leaders could hardly be said to have a mandate calling for fiscal responsibility.

A few years ago, government finances were the strongest they've been in a generation. Then came a turnaround — and a stunningly quick one. The budget surplus of $236 billion in 2000 turned into a deficit of $412 billion last year. The government had to borrow that much to cover the hole between what it took in and what it had to spend; a difference that's called the federal deficit.
Blame the bust of the dot-com boom, the ensuing recession,

In a very real sense, the U.S. economy is dependent on the central banks of Japan, China and other nations to invest in U.S. Treasuries and keep American interest rates down. The low rates here keep American consumers buying imported goods.

But the lack of fiscal discipline in the United States is undermining the value of the American dollar, thereby lowering the value of the U.S. Treasuries in foreign banks. As the dollar's value drops, other nations' willingness to keep investing cannot last, says Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York University.
If those banks reduced their dollar holdings or were simply less willing to invest so much, it could spark a sharp fall in the value of the dollar. And that could create a host of economic problems.

Economists and business leaders are closely watching China's decision last month to uncouple the value of its currency, the yuan, from the dollar and tie it instead to a basket of different currencies. The move could make the dollar's position less exposed to a quick shift by international investors — or it could spur those investors to look elsewhere and leave the United States' position more precarious.
In the end, Roubini, Walker and others say, disaster is still avoidable, but it's going to require the American people and the country's leaders to clean financial house — to reduce the federal deficit and the trade deficit. Global economics may drive some changes: if Japanese cars cost more, for example, Americans may buy less-expensive GMs.

If not, the future poses some frightening what-ifs:
• What if the dollar plummets? Do stocks follow? How about pensions?
• What if interest rates soar? How would all the new homeowners, who stretched to buy with adjustable and interest-only loans, cover their mortgages?
• How would consumers with record credit-card debt make their payments? Would they stop buying? Stop taking vacations? What will happen if they go bankrupt? New rules going into effect later this year make it harder on such debtors.
• How would government, which depends on the taxes of a strong economy to operate, keep all its promises?

Roubini says time is critical because the worse debt becomes, the more vulnerable America is to shocks in the global economic systems — another spike in oil prices, another major terrorist attack, another major military conflict.
OK, now back to you. No one's asking you to write a check to cover that $145,000, not yet. But the pressures are building around the world, in Washington, and in America's homes to straighten out our finances or get ready for a real mess.
"We're living beyond our means," Roubini says, "and we have to get our act together."

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The clock is ticking................and it's ticking about 60 days worth of ticks, in my view.

ALSO SEE:

Stock Market Crash Into October?

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=163796

Spirit Of Truth said:

ALSO SEE:

Stock Market Crash Into October?

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=163796

Click to expand...

A tipping point is approaching..............

"Also, I'm not an expert on esoteric stockmarket predictors like fractalism..............My philosophy is, anything can happen, for whatever reason...anytime.......anyplace.........

"I feel that since the economy is so very feeble, there will be some event that puts it over the tipping point. Whatever the event is, history will look at that 'event' as the cause of the economic calamity. Of course, it won't be the cause..........."

Watch closely Asian markets tonight, and European markets early on Aug. 30th. Also, be aware that a typhoon threatens Japan. Check that out also.

I wish I could figure out how to insert a chart I have annotated from stockcharts. The S&P 500 just melted down to a major fib retracement level and all things being equal, should bounce (for a short period of time anyway). The fib support was at 1203.81 and it pretty much made it all the way down.

That being said, the spectre and eventual results of Hurricane Katrina could make a lot of investors jittery, but I don't think we have a "crash" tomorrow. That word is thrown about way too loosely.

RentedMule said:

I wish I could figure out how to insert a chart I have annotated from stockcharts. The S&P 500 just melted down to a major fib retracement level and all things being equal, should bounce (for a short period of time anyway). The fib support was at 1203.81 and it pretty much made it all the way down.

That being said, the spectre and eventual results of Hurricane Katrina could make a lot of investors jittery, but I don't think we have a "crash" tomorrow. That word is thrown about way too loosely.

Click to expand...

Probably not............but a major malfunction will have begun. The race to the bottom is on.................

doctor_fungcool said:

Probably not............but a major malfunction will have begun. The race to the bottom is on.................

Click to expand...

Not sure if I agree with a major bottom in the near future. I don't think Greenspan will allow his "legacy" to be tarnished by severe bearish activity in his last few months on the job.

I do think we will go down quickly into December, preceding a Christmas rally. Fundamentally, we shouldn't be rallying at all, but I just have a feeling Greenspan will keep it up at least until he retires.

That being said, I went almost 100% cash in my 401K and made some nice profits on NDX and SPX puts last week.

I'm wondering how the market will react to the events in Louisiana. Lately, it seems that any major negative event is met with a ton of fed repos which props a falling market back up.

doctor_fungcool said:

What will Greenspan's legacy be? Will he have been the architect of the largest speculative boom and bust in the history of the world? His words tell us what is on his mind...............

Greenspan: 'Dont trust paper wealth'
"Greenspan, however, said people shouldn't count on that paper wealth, which can evaporate if economic conditions deteriorate rapidly."
http://apnews.excite.com/article/20.../D8C7NANO1.html

GOT PREPS? Hard Assets that are useful in everyday living? If not, why not?

Click to expand...

I absolutely hate to quote myself. However, I just did. Greenspan is warning us concerning the shaky financial structure. Furthermore, he's old, and probably sees the hand writing on the wall. His statement about not trusting paper wealth is telling. He knows what's coming down the pike.

October looks like the time for this great reckoning.............however, it could happen before or after that timeframe. I'm still sticking with October, although a September meltdown is not out of the question.

I'm afraid, we've reached the 'tipping point'. We're in a canoe, and there are immense waves approaching..............

As I said on another thread, I believe Katrina will likely be the tipping point for the economy. Aside from reconstuction costs, petroleum could/will be drasticly impacted for a significant period of time.

For, example, if I remember correctly, the LOOP offloads 18% of oil coming into the US. Statements on other boards have indicated that it could take 6 months to repair if it is seriously damaged. Plus, there are the Gulf oil rigs. Lop them off too and there will be a major shortage of fuel oil and natural gas for winter heating in addition to shortages of gasoline.

If people are having trouble with expenses now, they will never be able to handle predictably higher costs if this plays out as badly as it could. My gut feeling is that Depression II is starting.

Todd

PS Sounds sort of like Tom Sherry's Dark Winter only rather then an eruption, it's a hurricane.

Todd said:

As I said on another thread, I believe Katrina will likely be the tipping point for the economy. Aside from reconstuction costs, petroleum could/will be drasticly impacted for a significant period of time.

For, example, if I remember correctly, the LOOP offloads 18% of oil coming into the US. Statements on other boards have indicated that it could take 6 months to repair if it is seriously damaged. Plus, there are the Gulf oil rigs. Lop them off too and there will be a major shortage of fuel oil and natural gas for winter heating in addition to shortages of gasoline.

If people are having trouble with expenses now, they will never be able to handle predictably higher costs if this plays out as badly as it could. My gut feeling is that Depression II is starting.

Todd

PS Sounds sort of like Tom Sherry's Dark Winter only rather then an eruption, it's a hurricane.

Click to expand...

Well put, Todd. Depression II will be very similar in nature to Katrina .
It will surprise many like a thief in the night...............do its damage, and leave economic carnage in its wake. The landscape will be unrecognizable, and the populace will be in shock.

As for help from the government. Forgetaboutit.........you'll be on your own.

I wouldn't call this a crash, but this doesn't bode well for the market tomorrow morning.

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/

Here's the info from the site the cnn site.

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
September 2005 Change Price Last updated
S&P 500† -9.40 1196.50 8/28 19:30
Fair Value 1206.09 8/26 18:47
Difference * -9.59 8/26 18:47

September 2005 Change Price Last updated
NASDAQ† -11.50 1552.00 8/28 19:29
Fair Value 1561.76 8/26 18:47
Difference * -9.76 8/26 18:47

September 2005 Change Price Last updated
DOW JONES† -53.00 10407.00 8/26 17:01
DJIA contracts

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Dow futures would have to be somewhere in the high 80's for a possible crash to take place. Even if the Dow drops 300 points in the morning, I'm sure the PPT will smooth things out in the afternoon, if oil disruptions aren't horrendous.

If oil rigs are damaged , and gold breaks $450-then all bets are off, especially if oil breaks past the upper 70's per barrel. At $75.00 per barrel, we'll have a substantial selloff, PPT or not. Foreign money may start pulling out of the U.S. markets if the devastation is too wide spread, in my view........especially if there are lots of casualities and deaths due to Katrina.

The world will be looking at how the U.S. has prepared for this storm. If they think that we ( the U.S. government) were 'slacking' concerning preps, they'll be hell to pay with world opinion.

Dr, fungcool;

I followed many of those sites from 1992 todate. George got really boring, and the rest of them called some moves but missed so many other really good moves as they tend to look only at the bad stuff and do not look a how some of the bad stuff will create upward movements in other markets.

Oil and Gas investments are up 150% in a year, way better than gold.

Rather than preach the sky is falling, I have slowly learned to listen to advice that says "Hey there are some really interesting oprotunities over here" The doom and gloomers have done little to fatten my wallet, those that say the eggs are broken, lets have scrambled eggs are way up in my book.

Yah I know Mad Max is just around the corner, but then you probably do not even remember Quicksilver Messanger Service and "What a bout Me?" I doubt you have ever been in a riot. the 60's were fun... they taught me to keep going, and win as many as I can.

I will admit, my BirksireB shares will be toast in the morning, but I only own one or two, but my index oil funds... well, lets just say I expect a day in the black, not the red. Hope you can say the same.

The trick is to plan for total extenction, but learn that it will probably not be needed, and plan B is the one you need to spend the most time on.

HeliumAvid
LONG TIME MEMBER TB2K

I wish I had one or two shares of Bshire Hathaway.
Oh well. Seriously, we may have big problems tomorrow - I'll be up early. I've been waiting for one good up day - I may well settle for a day that's not down triple digits - to sell. Tomorrow may be the day - and somehow I feel that if it is, I'm lucky.

HeliumAvid said:

Dr, fungcool;

I followed many of those sites from 1992 todate. George got really boring, and the rest of them called some moves but missed so many other really good moves as they tend to look only at the bad stuff and do not look a how some of the bad stuff will create upward movements in other markets.

Oil and Gas investments are up 150% in a year, way better than gold.

Rather than preach the sky is falling, I have slowly learned to listen to advice that says "Hey there are some really interesting oprotunities over here" The doom and gloomers have done little to fatten my wallet, those that say the eggs are broken, lets have scrambled eggs are way up in my book.

Yah I know Mad Max is just around the corner, but then you probably do not even remember Quicksilver Messanger Service and "What a bout Me?" I doubt you have ever been in a riot. the 60's were fun... they taught me to keep going, and win as many as I can.

I will admit, my BirksireB shares will be toast in the morning, but I only own one or two, but my index oil funds... well, lets just say I expect a day in the black, not the red. Hope you can say the same.

The trick is to plan for total extenction, but learn that it will probably not be needed, and plan B is the one you need to spend the most time on.

HeliumAvid
LONG TIME MEMBER TB2K

Click to expand...

H.A..........I think Birkshire H is as good as it gets. As far as George and his Urban Survival Site, he is just one of about 20 sites I visit frequently. I take no one person as gospel, and try to gleen lots of info from lots of different perspectives. Like Katrina, a depression is coming and coming soon. There are no if's and's or but's about it. For you H.A., I recommend this book written in 1991..........The Great Reckoning.............buy it........it's a roadmap to our future.


As far as total extinction, I surely hope not..............but in the meantime, plan for hardtimes...........just in case totally extinction doesn't occur.

Here's hoping a very prosperous year for you and yours.............but still and all, make preps............all kinds of preps.................(I know of 70 thousand poor people who didn't make preps and are holed up in the Super Dome in N.O.................that's a tragedy.

As far as Mad Max goes, I think I ran into him last week on the I-94 Freeway..........he was a real trip!

Dow futures -71................anything above -85 is in crash territory.

September 2005 Change Price Last updated
S&P 500† -8.30 1197.60 8/28 22:06
Fair Value 1206.09 8/26 18:47
Difference * -8.49 8/26 18:47

September 2005 Change Price Last updated
NASDAQ† -10.50 1553.00 8/28 22:00
Fair Value 1561.76 8/26 18:47
Difference * -8.76 8/26 18:47

September 2005 Change Price Last updated
DOW JONES† -71.00 10336.00 8/28 21:59
DJIA contracts

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ok what is "Paper Wealth"? are we not supposed to have money in the bank either? like no savings, no checking, Etc.

Sunny

Wishful people who refuse to think clearly are deluding themselves"

For you.

FYI
http://www.larouchepub.com/

Jackson Hole Report:
FREAK-OUT AT JACKSON HOLE
by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.

August 27, 2005 (12:10pm)

Even the mere hint of today´s global, financial reality from Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, and a matching side remark by former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, have touched off a furore of lunatic rage among the customary annual coven of wishful dreamers assembled for this weekend´s annual rain-dance at Jackson Hole.

I restate, in clear text, what Greenspan and Rubin were actually thinking about as they spoke on this occasion.

Alan Greenspan took over the Fed from Paul Volcker at the point that the New York stock market had just gone through the October 1987 equivalent of what happened to Hoover in 1929. Greenspan´s reign has been distinguished by his regime´s bail-out strategies, which have consisted chiefly of a resort to the massive legalization of what are actually gamblers´ side-bets, but are called, euphemistically, "financial derivatives" or "hedge funds," a kind of play-money which has been used as a way of papering over the effects of a major stock-market crash. About the time the unlucky, and easily duped George W. Bush, Jr. was entering office in January 2001, the beginning of a financial-derivatives-driven general collapse of the world monetary-financial system, was already in progress. Nonetheless, despite this reality, Greenspan continued to play his part in the wilder and wilder pumping up of collapsing world financial institutions by a method most fairly and kindly described as "blowing bubbles."

During the interval since the 2000 collapse of Greenspan´s earlier "IT" financial bubble, the Fed Chairman and his accomplices overseas have postponed the overripe collapse of the world´s current financial system so far, by resort to dubious schemes typified most visibly by an international hyperinflationary spiral in mortgage-based financial securities markets, such as those in the U.S.A., the United Kingdom, Australia, and so forth. A blow-out of that over-ripe mortgage-securities bubble, is the leading immediate threat to the U.S. and British banking systems, a threat of an event which would spread like wildfire throughout world markets.

As a result of Greenspan´s pumping policy, since about April of this year, the entire world system has been flirting with the increasing possibility of an immediate general blow-out of the hedge-fund system. Now, as until the present international system actually blows out, that system is wobbling on the edge of something far more menacing than a mere stock-market crash like that of 1929 or October 1987.

To calm the worst fears of the panicked pack at this weekend´s Jackson Hole affair, I describe the actual situation of the markets in the plain language which Greenspan and Rubin avoided on this occasion.

The world markets as a whole are gripped now by what has been an accelerating global hyperinflation with certain mathematical-functional similarities to what happened in Germany during the Summer and Autumn of 1923. This threat is immediate, and worsening at an accelerating rate, but, fortunately, the challenge is manageable, on condition that certain essential emergency reforms are made quickly. As Franklin Roosevelt once said, famously, "We have nothing as much to fear as fear itself" — or, if not fear, the kind of mass-delusions exhibited by the maenads of Jackson Hole.
The Nature of the Crisis

The immediate problem of the world´s principal financial markets has the following leading characteristics.

Greenspan´s methods have amounted to flooding the financial system´s current accounts through a massive infusion of financial-derivatives "Monopoly play money." The crux of the problem is, that short-term apparent returns on current financial markets have been bought by an accelerating rate of growth of unpayable long-term financial obligations, which have been generated by Greenspan´s and by similar methods used abroad. When that hyperinflationary debt-inflation, halts, the present world monetary-financial system blows apart. The relationship between apparent financial returns and long-term unpayable financial obligations is now clearly hyperbolic. The really bad news is, that the longer the market does not collapse, the worse the financial collapse becomes, that at an accelerating rate.

Wishful people who refuse to think clearly are deluding themselves, like people living on the proceeds of taking in one another´s laundry, by asking one another, "Are we sure that the market will never really crash?" Asking "When" is their potentially fatal mistake; they should be asking, "How?" instead.

The best thing would be to have had the crash sooner, rather than later, but on the condition that the U.S. government were thinking clearly, and was prepared to act as Secretary Rubin and President Clinton had posed the need for international financial-system reform, back during September 1998.

The problem is that the crowd of virtual bankrupts represented at Jackson Hole are clinging so desperately to their delusion of riches, that they, like the dupes of 1923 Germany, would rather cling for another moment to their own doomed dreams, than face the reality of the urgently needed general reform.

Sometimes the worst kind of insanity is clinging to denials, as we see from the spectacle of the diabolical romp of the wild-eyed warlocks and witches assembled at Jackson Hole.

Even chief warlock of the Federal Reserve, Greenspan, can no longer charm them with his spells.

The question is, are they willing to accept a merciful path to survival in bankruptcy proceedings, or the permanent torment their continued folly of today would assure them now? The question is: "Since most of that crowd at Jackson Hole are probably hopelessly insane, and probably soon bankrupt, for the moment, what are you, John Q. Citizen, willing to do, to save your country, and, also, your own butt?"

30-30-30

Okay its monday, the huricane is here, everyone has their crash helmets on, full gas cans and, and, and....the DOW is down 7 pts.

Markets up 21...no crash today.

strudel nut said:

Markets up 21...no crash today.

Click to expand...

Ever feel like whistling "Don't worry...be happy"?

/saracasm

I see at least one thread on here every day calling for the "big crash". Eventually, someone is going to get that right. Maybe it will be 5 weeks or 5 years from now. In any case, if you're an investor/trader, why not just follow the trend? That's the easiest way to make money in the market.

From May through the beginning of August, the trend had clearly been up. Even if you didn't catch the bottom, you still could have easily made 10-15% on the way up.

For all the crash threads on here, I still haven't seen anything close to crash.

BTW, the trend is down now.

The market is UP Around 60 pts.,from it's open.Interday trading is where it's at.


I know it's a hard concept to grasp for the non traders,BUT, once again;

"Markets are taken up for an exit point,and taken down for an entrance point,"

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^DJI&t=1d

Ah, but rentedmule, to make money in the market that we all have been so completely convinced that for years is within days of going to absolute zero....well to make money in that market, we would all have to throw away our official TB2K shit colored glasses and put some very prominent and popular TB2K "experts" on ignore and admit that the trend is our friend.

That isn't going to happen in TB2K land. It's just much more fun being poor and scared all the time.

notred said:

Ah, but rentedmule, to make money in the market that we all have been so completely convinced that for years is within days of going to absolute zero....well to make money in that market, we would all have to throw away our official TB2K shit colored glasses and put some very prominent and popular TB2K "experts" on ignore and admit that the trend is our friend.

That isn't going to happen in TB2K land. It's just much more fun being poor and scared all the time.

Click to expand...

It's unfortunate that there are so many rich freepers lurking around TB2k........I salute those who have been bestowed the mantle of respectability with your fancy BMW's, and big McMansions, $1000 suits, and corpulent stock options.................Personally, I wish y'all well, but don't forget one thing............make hard preps.........

(TB2k'ers) I hope you know that there are lots of rich guys hanging around here, pretending to be poor hicks. Don't be fooled.
(:eyes rolling to back of orbital sockets We know you really don't own an Escort!
Come on now, it's time for you rich guys to come clean!

For those who were born with the silver spoon in their mouths, I recommend stocking up on shelves full of T.P.............'cause when the Shite hits da fan, it's gonna be mighty messy! While you're at it, save up that dinero for your heat bill this winter..............'cause it's gonna be mighty expensive.
P.S. just to wet your appetite, there was a Tb2ker with the initials H.B. who was a real millionaire.............yep, truth is stranger then fiction.
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Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas soared as much as 23 percent in New York, the biggest fluctuation of any commodity today, to a record on concern Hurricane Katrina will damage offshore rigs.

Gas for September delivery rose $1.478, or 15 percent, to $11.27 per million British thermal units at 10:01 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract earlier reached a record high $12.07 per million Btu.

Katrina blew through the Gulf of Mexico's gas-producing regions this weekend with winds of at least 150 miles (241 kilometers) an hour. It made landfall this morning in Louisiana as a Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The Gulf accounts for 24 percent of U.S. gas output.

``There is concern that this storm has the potential to uproot some of the rigs and destroy them,'' said Peter Beutel, an energy consultant and president of Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut. ``The concern here is that we're going to lose a sizable chunk of production, not just for a couple of days, not just a couple of weeks, but possibly for months or more.''

Bloomberg

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/

Well so far the PPT seems to be doing a good job at keeping things afloat.
DJIA 10,417.51 +20.23
NASDAQ 2,124.8 +4.07

IceWave