PREPS PART 22: WEATHER FORECASTING

Anyone out there who can tell the upcoming weather by looking at the sky or by insect behavior?

The oldtimers were pretty good at this.......it would be very helpful if we could all learn how to tell if a big storm is brewing.

I wish my dad was still alive. As a lifer as a CPO in the Coast Guard, he could look in the sky and predict the next few days weather very accurately.
I remember him talking about ' mackeral skies' and horsetails which were kinds of clouds.
I also remember the cicadas making louder noise when the day was to be hot.
Anyone out there who can chime in?

My grandma was the font of weather wisdom. I wish I'd written down all the things she said! I remember the "mackeral skies" phrase but don't remember what she meant by it.

One of her weather indicators that I've found to be accurate was that on a cloudy day, if you could see "a patch of blue big enough to make a Dutchman a pair of breeches" [i.e., small] it would turn sunny later on.

I also remember her saying if the leaves turned upside down in the wind then a rainstorm was on the way.

She had lots of other wisdom to dispense but weather was her speciality!

Deep Blue Dragon said:

My grandma was the font of weather wisdom. I wish I'd written down all the things she said! I remember the "mackeral skies" phrase but don't remember what she meant by it.

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I remember my dad talking about mackeral skies..they are high clouds that resemble fish scales, small and puffed in neat rows. This always was an indicater of bad weather coming.

I have always been a weather "nut". I have read and studied weather info since I was a kid and I still do at the old age of 53. For an explanation of mackerel skies and mares tails and their associated weather go to this link.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/feature/wf210901.htm

Ozarkian

Good question...what would we weather geeks do without Weather Underground, Intellicast, and the cool NWS maps?

I have a barometer and know what it means when it moves one way or the other. Have a weather guide "National Audubon Society Field Guide to North American Weather" It shows all the different cloud formations and what causes them. Also a wind sock, wind gauge, and a high-low outside recording digital thermometer, plus a battery powered weather alert radio. (All stuff that works off-grid! )

If all else fails...farmers know that the livestock is edgy, active and bordering on silly a few hours before a strong front moves in. Hunters know that wildlife is active and feeds in a frenzied fashion a few hours before and (more importantly to big game hunters) after a big storm.

It's important to train yourself to notice changes in the weather and to know your local microclimate. Do you have that "inner voice" that tells you when the wind has changed directions? The old-timers who spent a lot of time outside had all learned to catch these subtle signs and had the experience to know what they meant.

Goodness LilRose, you have SO many ideas. And they're all great!

Is this the one you were thinking of?
Mare’s tails and mackerel scales make tall ships carry low sails.

There are a lot of sayings that are accuate and have been passed down generations. Like, "red skies at night, sailors delight. Red skies in morning, sailors take warning."

Or, Evening red and morning gray, sends the traveler on his way. Evening gray, morning red, brings the rain down on his head. And rain before seven, clear before
eleven.

Or,ice in November to bear a duck, the rest of the winter will be slush and muck

The most interesting one I've heard was an older woman once looked up at the moon and said, boy, "we're sure gonna get rain." Rain wasn't predicted, and I asked her why she thought so, she said, "girl, don't you know anything? Look at that moon, it's tipping over. It's going to pour out rain on us." I laughed. The next day it poured. She said the points of the cresents indicate. When pointed up, they're holding water, as they tip, the water pours out.

When you have a campfire, if the smoke goes up, weather will be good, if it comes down, it will rain.

If there's no dew on the grass in the evening, it's going to rain. If it's wet, it won't.

My grandma always said if it rained on Easter Sunday, it was going to rain for the next eight Sundays. It's been right more times than not.

Apples and onions are good predictors of winter. Thick skins mean a bad winter. Thin skins mean mild. A heavy crop of nuts also predicts a bad winter. The animals know.

Chickens eat heavy and roost early when it's going to be bad. Chickweed and dandelions fold up before a rain. Maple trees lift their leaves up.

Guess I better let that be it for now, so someone else can add something. Hard not to be selfish on these neat threads.

We always had a 'weather glass' in our house and it was an amazingly accurate but simple barometer.
The weather glass accurately forecasts weather changes 4 - 12 hours in advance. The rise and fall of the water level in the curved spout indicates weather conditions.
If the colored water went way up the spout it meant bad weather....if the water actually spilled out , hold onot your hats since a hurricane or blizzrd were heading our way.
HMMMMM think I will buy one for old times sake and put it to good use.

Just some old time sayings

If you see a ring around the moon, count the number of stars inside and that's the number of days till it rains.

If you kill a snake, hang it in a tree and it will rain within three days.

Another option for everyone to think about.....a bit on the high-tech side.

Weather satellites. Even if TSHTF, the weather satellites put up by the various countries will still be up there and probably operational. There are basically two types of weather satellites -

1) Geostationary (which means they are "parked" in orbit at the same place above the Earth...for the most part). These are the ones that give us most of the pictures that our local weatherman and the Weather channel use, and

2) Low-Earth Orbiters (LEO's) these are much lower in space and zoom around the earth something like every 90 mins or so - and give a much closer zoomed in view of the earth.

You can "listen" to these satellites and get the pictures yourself with the right equipment. I only have experience with collecting the LEO's signals. For that, all you need is a computer with a soundcard, a "police scanner" that will receive signals in the 137 MHz range (most do) and 2 computer programs. One that will predict when the LEO satellite's will come zooming by overhead and another to decode the signal. Great thing is, these software programs are free from the Internet. The decoding one I have experience with is called DXSat and you can get it free here : http://www.dxzone.com/cgi-bin/dir/jump2.cgi?ID=2701

Satellite tracker programs are on these same type webpages.

It really easy to set up. Just take a cable from the earphone jack of your scanner to the "microphone" or input jack on your soundcard run some diagnostics (included in the software) and you are downloading live weather pictures. I used to have some cool ones from hurricanes in the Caribbean but they are on a different computer right now. These LEO sats usually pass overhead of a given location 5-6 times a day. Last I checked there were 3 operational U.S. sats and 2 Russian ones. Each usable pass lasts about 5 mins maybe.

To receive "weather channel-type" pictures you will need a special kind of receiver that goes up to 1.2GHz (I think). Look in most Amateur/Ham radio stores catalogs and they have them for around $100-200 I think.

(For the purists out there, yes I know the bandwidth of a typical scanner is too narrow for perfect pictures, but for basic tinkering-around they are fine. I use mine all the time.)

EDITED TO ADD- you will also need an antenna of course. The higher and more away from obstructions the better. Though I've sat inside with a little "rubber-duckie" antenna and gotten good signals thanks to a pass directly overhead.



I realize that this set up uses electricity and that might be hard to come by in a true TSreallyHTF scenario but I figure there are a lot of us preppers out there with generators and solar/wind setups that can handle running a PC/scanner for a few minutes. Also while using grannies sure fire method for predicting rain might work reliably...I'd sure as heck like to know when a hurricane is sitting offshore waiting to pounce on me.

here is a typical picture that you can get..from the website...





Just another option for us all...

Here's another site to find the old timers ways of weather prognostication.
http://www.stalkingthewild.com/weather.htm

there is some pretty good stuff on there

Anyone from tornado country? Do you have any ways to tell if one is heading your way...other than the obvious! Man! If I saw one of those heading my way I would need new undies fer shur!

Couple of others I learned from old fishing guides.

If it rains and there are large bubbles on the water surface....it will rain all day. surface tension thing.

If you cast your line and it floats before it falls to the water, electrical storm on the way. Makes sense....static electricity.

Just a couple to add for now.

I dont know about anywhere else, but I know here in the heart of the Carolina's, that if you hear thunder in the winter you will have snow within ten days.

This has never been wrong.

We have lots of false starts on spring, but the dogwoods are never wrong. Once you see a dogwood blossom, spring and summer are here to stay.

WalknTrot said:

Have a weather guide "National Audubon Society Field Guide to North American Weather" It shows all the different cloud formations and what causes them.

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I had a look at this book at Amazon.com and ordered a copy. Looks like very valuable information. Thanks for the tip!

Charlie said:

Couple of others I learned from old fishing guides.

If it rains and there are large bubbles on the water surface....it will rain all day. surface tension thing.

If you cast your line and it floats before it falls to the water, electrical storm on the way. Makes sense....static electricity.

Just a couple to add for now.

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Those are good ones Charlie....I am pretty sure my dad told me those but I had forgotten them till now!
Isn't it a shame that so much common sense folk lore is being lost in a single generation?

LilRose-

DH is a certified meteorologist from his USAF days, and he was very good. Got in trouble once for accurately forecasting the touchdown of a tornado, 12 hours in advance, just by looking at the charts...the problem? The PTB didn't like such advance warnings because it meant they had to move millions of $$ of equipment and planes into hangars...which messed up the regular schedule...and even tho DH was correct and the funnel touched down within 15 minutes of when he forecasted it, he still got a lecture. Military intelligence...

Some things that stick with me from those days and even now and then...

Mammatis (sp?) clouds are the ones where tornadoes come from...they are dark and heavy and low, and look like, well, breasts, hence the term, mammatis...

So if you see those, batten down the hatches and watch for funnels...

I have seen dozens of them form right before my eyes because of all the storm chasing we have done.

Green skies in a storm mean that hail is present- another sign of a severe thunderstorm, along with winds over 35MPH, gusts over 50

Severe thunderstorms always have the potential of producing tornadoes, so if you see green skies or large hail ( over a 1/4 inch IIRC) get under cover

If you see a halo around the moon, those are ice crystals, expect precipitation within 72 hours

Not really a weather item, but if you see a rainbow colored cloud near the sun, it's called a ' sundog'

If the barometer is dropping, expect precip.

If you are out in the afternoon and see large cumulonimbus clouds- the white puffy ones with heavy bottoms, that are growing at the top, those are called ' towering cue'....they often develop into thunderstorms. When you see one get really tall, and then level off, that's wind shear. Some of these become severe.
Always watch if it's a humid day and the barometer is falling and these clouds are present, anything can happen.

I try to rely more on the eye and less on weather forecasts these days, since many ' weather readers" are simply using computer models and have seemingly forgotten how to use charts - like DH learned in the USAF.

ON10

Along with what Charlie said about the bubble size in the rain...I've talked to sailers on the Great Lakes, and well....duh...I never put two and two together before, but they tell me that in a severe low pressure system the waves are significantly higher and choppier because of the lower air pressure. A high pressure system has a noticable "dampening" effect on the wave action. Makes sense and pays to keep an eye on the barometer when on big water.

For PNWers- If Ol' Mount Rainier is wearing a "hat"- means precipitation within 48 hours.

Red in the morning, sailors take warning, red at night, sailor's delight.

Watch the bird's behavior- they know when a winter storm is coming, and you will often spot multiple species grouped together looking for food frantically, and doing a lot of "talking." Especially note species not usually seen in the lowlands.

Great information in this thread! The only thing I have to add is that my husband has arthritis and accurately predicts rain within 12-24 hours by the increase in his pain level. Not a very fun way to predict weather, but useful nonetheless.....

Writermom