Risk Management and Survival: A Real Life Plan "B"

We all have heard about risk managment and some of us have had jobs where risk management was a significant concern. In my case, it was the chemical industry. However, there are common elements in all forms of risk management. First, risk management is active, that is, you do not manage risk by sitting back and waiting for things to happen and then trying to do something. Second, analysis is always an ongoing activity since conditions change over time. It is not something you do once. Third, educated guesses often have to substitute for hard information. Lastly, the risk has to be mitigated or, at least, recognized. This is a pretty simplified version of the risk managment process but it sufficiently robus for my purpose.

One mistake that even experts make is to discount worst-case scenarios because "No one is stupid enough to do the" or "Mitigation would cost too much" to "Too many things would have to happen at the same time. It couldn't happen in a thousand years". Having been through one plant disaster where 15 men were killed and being part of a corporate team that investigated individual fatalities at our planats, I assure you that trying to sidestep or ignore a worst-case scenario is foolhardy.

If we look at the world around us, we can see many real risks. Among them are:

Peak oil/gas
Resource depletion
Pandemics
Insufficient water
A dollar bust
A stock market collapse
Hyper inflation/stagflation/deflation or depression
A real estate bust
Warfarae
Food shortages
Terrorism

Many of these are clearly interrelated but the end result will be the same - life as it is known today has a very high probability of changing for the worse.

But now we have to enter the active phase of risk management. It is at this point that decisions have to be made. If we consider posts/replies on TB2K as indicative of the public at large, we see views of the future falling into three categories:

1. Society will never collapse. No preparation is necessary.

2. Society will experience very serious, but teporary, crises but will survive. Some prepartion is necessary to tide you over.

3. The sky is falling. Run for the hills and start a homestead.

Each category cites its own articles and experts to support its position. Yet, someone is clearly wrong. They can't all be right. And, here we get into the conundrum of risk management. If you run for the hills, you'll probably survive regardless of the future. You might feel stupid that you listened to all the collapse crap if nothing happens but you'll be alive in any case. If you do nothing and society does collapse, you may die. You might waatch your kids starve to death. Or, maybe, you'll die as a family from nuclear fallout because you refused to move to a safer area. For a good example of how that might play out, watch the movie Testament - the most depressing film ever made in my view.

My point is that there really isn't any middle ground: either life is going to remain pretty much the same or it isn't. Those who believe the sky is soon to fall often argue that those who believe otherwise are in denial. I personally believe this is disingenuous since it insinuates that the people who disagree are stupid and can't interpret the facts or would change their minds immediately if only the "right" facts were presented. It is equally likely that those who believe the sky won't fall feel the same way about those who think the sky will fall.

Clearly, knowledge of a risk in and of itself does not motivate people. People still drive too fast for road conditions, overeat and get fat, smoke, drink in excess and do a thousand other things where the risk is known to cause harm. But they do them anyway. If knowing that thousands die in car crashes each year hasn't led to universal safe driving habaits, why would some nebulous projections about peak oil, for example, lead anyone to be concerned, much less result in a change in lifestyle? The answer is that it won't. However, it is amazing how many people become reformed drucks after they are arrested for drunk driving and how many smokers quit after their first heart attack.

The trouble in the case of the future is that there can be no retroactive risk mitigation. Either risk is managed prior to an avent or it isn't. It is this black and whitness that many people don't understand. In addition, people become paralyzed because they insist upon knowing exactly how and when somwthing might occur. When this isn't possible, and that is usually the case, they ignore the risk. Lastly, even those who think about risk management and survival don't base their plans on a worst-case scenario. Instead, they diddle around the edges.

I believe that 99+% of the US population will do nothing to migigate potential fufutre risks regardless of available information. There is a naive belief that there will be ample forewarning of a crisis but experience has shown that this is almost never the case. They also tend to believe that "someone" will take care of the problem for them. When a worst-case actually occurs, I believe that it will be impossible to take action to migigate it because resources will be overwhelmed and, further, there will not be enough time.

It is one thing to talk about a worst-case in an abstract way but another to deal with it in reality. My rural area could be considered a microcosm for what may happen because it is small enough to react quickly and manifest the good, the bad and the ugly within a short period. Compared to urban areas, one might believe that it would be more immune, that is, resilient, from coming events but I believe this will not be the case. Instead, I believe events will be quickly amplified.

End Part One

(Our power is not too reliable today and I don't want to lose everything if it blinks again.)

Edit some of the obvious spelling mistakes

Part Two

The community is in the Coast Range Mountains of northern California. I have lived here for over thirty years. It is about 20 miles from the ocean. It is an area that is unlikely to be impacted by continental nuclear strikes on the US from either direct blasts or fallout. There are no terrorist targets. It is mountainous cattle and timber country. There is no commercial agriculture with the exception of, perhaps, 500 acres of hay and cattle on range on thousands of acres. Only a few people have home gardens. Most by all their food at stores. Everything is trucked in from distant cities. Even those who heat with wood typically buy it. In reality, the area is only self-sufficient in cows and timber.

Rural areas like mine always have borderline economies even in good times and it will take little to nudge it over the edge. I simply see no way that my community, as a unit, could adapt, whatever that may mean, to the loss of its already limited economy.

Note that I have not defined how collapse might occur or how rapid a collapse might be. I an uninterested in these issues from a risk management point of view. I am only concerned with the probability of collapse occuring at some point - and it is very high in my estimation.

Here is what I see for the community at large:

Depopulation - The first to go will be the dope growers who will have no market and, therefore, no money. The second to go will be older people who depend upon local businesses and services. I don't see any of them surviving. The third to go will be people who cannot produce their own food. The last to go will be people in the hills who rely upon diesel, propane and gasoline for their very survival. My area covers about 600 square miles and currently has, as a guess, 2,500 people. I expect the final population to be 500-700, certainly less then 1,000.

Energy - Wood gas will initially be substituted for gasoline and diesel fuel by a few people. However, the ultimate limiting factor will be lubricating oil. ALthough there is likely to be engine oil some place at a price, I believe that the remaining people will eventually revert to oxen (actually cows) for tillage and horses for travel. There are lots of riding horses around since this is cattle country (but no draft horses).

Food production - Water will be the limiting factor. Even many people with wells or springs will not have sufficient water to grow crops to the extent necessary to avoid starvation. To put water into perspecive, our area's ETO (evapotranspiration) is about 6" or half and acre-foot per month during the summer. This is well over 100,000 gallons per acre per month or more than 3,000 gallons per day per acre.

It would be theoretically possible to impound a large stream that runs through the valley and use the surrounding flat land for community gardens. However, this is unlikely.

In the longer run, nutrients such as phosphate and calcium will become added limiting factors.

Schools - The school district will shut down because parents are not going to drive their kids down to the school bus stops assuimg the buses are still running. Fifty years ago (which doesn't seem so long ago to me since I graduated from high school in 1956), there were one-room schoolhouse scattered throughout the area. They were so far out that the teachers lived at the school. It's hard to believe these days but it was accepted back then. One of the teachers is a very good friend of mine who is full of stories of 20' snow drifts and working in the woods as a choker setter during the summer because the pay was so low for teachers.

Parents will home-school, develop their own local, one romm schools or simply let the kids run wild.

City people - The argument is always thrown up that city people will invade the boondocks. A few might show up or get by the roadblocks but I believe the vast majority will stay in the cities or be prevented from leaving. Further, those who do get here will not have the skills to survive.

Community - There won't be much community. In the beginning people might trek to town to trade or barter once a week, then it will probably go to once a month and the, finally, stop altogether. The problem is that the majority of people live 10-20 miles (and some much further) from town and that would put extra miles on the engine oil assuming wood gas is used as fuel. And, who wants to spend two days riding their horse to town and back when there will be little there?

Nor will there be any community workshops to make things or tool sharing or small businesses for the same reason; people are too dispersed. However, I do see some sort of community trips to the ocean for rock and surf fish, kelp gathering (for iodine) and salt and as an excuse to see how others are doing and to keep up friendships. This could be seen as a replacement for the community picnics we used to have before all the new people moved in and the population got too large.



Communications - Assuming the phones have stopped working, communication will probably go back to the old CB days before the phone company extended the lines. Anyone else remember linear amplifiers for CBs? A few people might have FRS units.

So, what does society look like in my area in the long run in a worst-case scenario? It will probably be small groups of people centered upon the roads where they live. The will be herder (cows-goats-sheep-pigs) > hunter-gatherer (ducks-deer-bear-fish-birds- and, possibly, elk/acrons-berries-wild greens/seeds) > farmers (vegetable crops and chickens and turkeys).

End part Two

(Great, more snow. Hope the power stays on for Part Three - our road's plans)

Edit a few more spelling mistakes

As usual, Todd, great information! We each need to do a realistic assessment of our own locality and/or that locality to which someone may plan to bug out.

Part Three - What my Road Will Do

Ok, this is the nitty-gritty.

In my specific case, there are 8-10 adults (four families) and no young children on our mile long private road. Together we own almost 100 acres (57Ac, 34Ac and 6Ac) and would have access to another 200 acres of adjoiing range for animals. A friend has poointed out that there are endemic diseases such as liver flukes that require the cows to be shot-up so there may be some potential problems with stock.

What follows is far from a complete description of our plans. Rather, I hope to give the "flavor". Many of the specifics come from me and would probably be modified to some degree in actual practice.

There will be several samll gardens of an eighth (one exists) to quarter acre by people's homes, on of 2 acres (mine) which could be expanded by another half an acre or so and one large, shared one of about 4 acres that would be devloped in a bowl-shaped meadow that can be irrigated form a pond.

For better or worse, I'd be the agricultural advisor since I have grown here the longest, have trialed more varieties and species and have lots of open pollinated seed. However, I do not maintain sufficient stocks of seed to provide a balanced diet for 8-10 adults. This is a very serious failing that has to be mitigated.

AS stupid as it sounds, the first action would probably be to drive to town (15 miles each way) and buy a bunch of extra seeds at the nursery. In an emergency, it is unlikely that many people will consider seeds important, so there should be a good selection. The alternaive is to supplement our diets with native plants. This isn't farfetched. We have some knowledge of the plants that the Indians used before the white man came. Although the number of species is lesss then at that time, there is still a wide variety to choose from

The individual families will likely grow low yield crops they especially like such as melons, peppers, greens, garlic/onions, squash or berried on their home plots. The common area would be reserved for crops with high yields such as potatoes, dried beans, corn soybeans, hemp, tomatoes, wheat and, maybe, sugar beets for sugar and animal feed. My garden will be the locus of fruit production for everyone since I have the only orchard and vineyard.

I might also grow some things hydroponically, under lights run off of my PV system if collapse happens during the winter. The lights were formerly used in our greenhouse.

Does this mean we've got sustainable agriculture licked and that generations of happy, well-fed people can live off these gardens? No. Sure, we can add nitrogen and organic matter with cover cvrops and potash from wood ashes. However, we have no realistic way of replacing phosphorous that is taken off in the crops. SOme might argue that there are Permaculture and Biodynamic methods that will keep the soil fertile forever. Only someone who knows nothing about agriculture would believe this.

My guess is that we will end up with high protein diets a la Akins, albeit with as many fruits and vegies as we can reasonably produce, based upon chickens and turkeys since they can forage over a wide area most of the year and fish from the pond rather then high carbohydrate diets based upon planats that have to be farmed.

I raised the issue of water as a limiting factaor above. We have three water sources; a spring, a well and a pond. The spring belongs to a family that lives on a side road off the main road but is part of the group. It is really only useful for their domestic needs plus their small, existing garden and their horses but nothing beyond that. The well belongs to me. It supplies domestic water for us and the other two families. It is also used to irrigate our garden, orchard and vineyard. The pond is owned by one of the othr families and is currently used by my tenants to irrigate their landscaping but will be used for the common garden.

The question of pumping water has to be raised, "Ok, you have water. How are you going to pump it?" The spring is currently pumped with a generator and an electric pump but they also have a gas pump. Both of these could be run on wood gas. My well can run off the grid, my 3.6kW PV system or one of my generators running on wood gas.

The pond water can be pumped using a gas pump (converted to wood gas) our tenants now use to pump irrigation water from the pond; with a spare 1/3hp jet pump I have, run off of my 8kE generator; by connecting a PTO roller pump I used to use on my tractor to a car or truck axel; with a well pump I just replaced. It's worn but still works.

Fodd preservation for my wife and the two closest families will take place at our house since we have thge necessary equipment and a wood cookstove. The other family will probably do it at their place with, perhaps, the exception of pressure canning. We have the only pressure canner and wouldn't loan it out. We also have a meat grinder, a juice press and a large electric dehydrator that can be run on the PV system. Each section of the dehydrator will hold a bushel.

Our main energy source will be wood for heat (we all heat with wood anyway) and cooking. We'll probably make some ethanol (and, maybe, methanol from wood) for lamp/refrigerator fuel if we can't figure out how to use wood gas for the two families with propane refrigerators. This should be an ongoing project but I'm the only one fascinated by wood gas. I spend a lot of time thinking about how to presureize wood gas. It might be possible to use a blower from a car connected to PV panels since these appliances only need a few inches of water pressure to work. I have some old, low wattage panels I'm not using that could be used for this.

End Part Three.

Part Four will finish the post. (I need a break. At least it stopped snowing.)

Todd, you left out one...

2a - Society will experience a severe disruption causing hundreds of millions of deaths worldwide (perhaps billions), the global infrastructure will fail, but will eventually recover. However, the new infrastructure will only be able to support a small percentage of the Earth's former population (perhaps a third).

Todd, I know your area. I am 30 miles SE of Redding, 30 miles NE of Red bluff. Own 206 scentic canyon rim acres. Does my area sound safe to you? I know the area where you are is harder to get to.
Fred

Continuing Part Three....

We will also have my 3.6kW PV system for some electrical needs like refrigeration/freezing and my shop for repair and construction work. I can run all my power tools on the PV including the arc welder. However, I also have a huge assortment of hand tools ranging from oen-point beam saws to my funky blacksmith stuff to planes with felible sole plates for planning curved surfaces.

I recognize that the PV system isn't a long-term solution. It offers a window of opportunity to ameliorate current needs but as portions (read batteries) fail over time, it will eventually have to be shut down except during daytime. I would then work through other options when that happened such as using my 8kW generator and then my 23kW diesel genrator run on wood gas.

One issue that isn't resolved is clothing. There aren't enough deer around to provide everyone with buckskins so we'll have to grow some kind of fiber. This will probably be hemp. Hemp offers many advanatages since it produces prodigious amounts of nutritious seeds if pollinated and oil can be extracted from the seeds. But we'd have a huge learning curve to turn stiff stems into usable cloth. If we were smart, we'd all buy 20 year's worth of clothes and boots and avoid the clothing issue. It's unlikely any of the families will, including my wife and I.

Personal hygiene - The two closest families will have no power if the grid goes down. The other family is off the grid. Therefore, clothes washing will take place at our house since we will have power frommthe PV system and we can heat water with the PV system. We also have a solar hot water pre-heating system that will reduce the amount of power needed to heat the water in summer and a heat exchenger in our wood heater that will reduce it in winter. And, if there isn't enough sun to run our 40 gallon tank, I have a 7 gallon tank that I bough several years go specificall to by-pass the big one if necessary.

Showers will also be at our place for the same reason unless I can figure out how to use wood gas in place of propane since two families have propane water heaters. Yes, they could take sponge baths but that will probably take more energy to heat the wataer in the long run then coming to my hose. Hopefully, people will take solar showers in the summer.

One alternative for hot water is to build a theromsiphon water heater fueled by wood at the other houses. When I was a kid we had such a system that was fueled by coal. I have spare tanks that could be used. Or, we could build "Blazing Showers" units. These wer untis that were sold 25-30 years ago. They were a section of flue pipe with a coil inside that replaced a section of flue in wood heaters.

Communications are up in the air since we've never talked about it. I have a CB with SSB and a scanner in my truck, a pair of FRS units and a hand=held scanner in the house along with a couple of radios that can pick up SW and other bands. I'd give one of the FRS units to one of the families down the mountain from us so they could let us know if there were any problems or for us to tell them when they should come up to can or shower or something. The family on the side road might have an old CB kicking around. Everybody used to have a CB. I'm less worried about this then the other things we would have to deal with. If push came to chove, someone could always use the usual three shots as an alarm.

It is clear that I have anticipated starting out with some significant technology. However, it would be naive to believe we'll have it forever. Things will wear out and ancillary materials such as lubricating oil may simply not be available. That will, in turn, make some of our technology useless. Therefore, it is going to be necessary to start looking for alternatives right from the beginning so that we won't be left in the lurch when the time comes. I'm alaready doing this. For example, I have plans for a homemade windmill to replace my well pump.

I feel I have to make some closing comments about defense since city people seem fixated about hordes and looter coverrunning everything. Any problems in my area are likely to be caused by local people not gang-bangers or starving families from the city. I don't really want to go into any detail othr then to say that trepassing has been considerd and will be dealt with appropriately.

Now, do our overall plans mean things will be all peace and light albeit with a few rough edges? The answer is no. There area a lot of holes that haven't been filled or can't be filled. For example, I'm very seriously concerned about the other families having sufficient food until there are significant harvests. However, it is better to know these risk even if they can't be mitigated at the present time then to be surprised by them later.

That's about it. I think we'll do all right but life will be really, really hard. For what it's worth, these plans were kicked around by the people involved before Y2K to the extent we were all pretty much on the same wavelength. That doesn't mean there will be no conflicts but it does mean we will work together.

We have never met as a group to discuss when a new crisis might occur or how it might be precipitated. But we have talked individually and we all share the same concerns. We have tried to establish a realistic framework as to what we will have to do and how we are going to do it.

I don't waant to extend this much more but I do want to comment about the difference between my road and Bill P's ideas of sustainable community. We aren't a community in the usual sense but rather practical, hard-minded country people who sahre a road. We do have the advantage of having known each other for many, many years - and we still get along really well. We will likely do things as individual families that a formal group might objecet to bu will share those things like volume food production, procuring firewood and building wood gas generators that are necessary for survival. However, there is no underlying philosophy that might cause a split. And, this may be the key to our lon-term survival.

So, I've more or less reached the end...you might say I've run out of gas. I spent a number of days drafting endings for this. They all came off pontifical; like I know it all when I don't. Here is my suggestion: People who are on the borderline between prepping and doomerism need to find a mentor who is acatually doing it. A place they can visit to see how it has been done and sit around discussing the pros and cons fo the future. Perhaps, spend part of a vacation there helping out and learning some new skills. Time is of the essence but it hasn't run out yet.

As I have mentioned many times, I'm more then willing to have visitors to our place. It can be for an hour or several days. We're in northern Mendocino County, CA. Just PM me if you are interested.

Todd

Fred,

I think I have nuke blast and fallout maps some place in my files. What I remember was that there was a potential nuke blast site some place around Mt. Shasta.

Otherwise, I think you're pretty much in the same shape I am.

Wishing us all good luck.

Todd

Fascinating.

Could your spring have a RAM pump, those non electric thingeys Lehman's sells to the Amish? IIRC you need to have the water dropping a few feet down in a short distance to make it power the thing properly. Not sure if they would work with a spring unless it's a gusher. No streams eh? Can you make the pond with a controlled drop off so you can pump water occasionally uphill?

I've run all the scenarios here in my mind a hundred times, and medium- long term the only thing that'll work for us is if the vast majority of folks have been moved to shelters and camps far away, and the roads are blocked. Lots of farms and land, but even if the locals got together with guns to guard the entrances, we'd be no match for roving, heavily armed armed city gangs. Anybody with half a gas tank can get to my area. (I hope they cut the roads to the Amish!)

For those of us not in such a great situation I find comfort in the sense of God's calling. Wilkerson talks about the 1000 fires burning in NYC with tanks rolling in the streets and a total econ collapse and nukes, but every day he goes into NYC ready to die. Living in the state of NJ would seem crazy as a prepper if it wasn't for the sure, absolutely sure, sense of God's calling. You have to do all you can and be ready to die.

Thanks so much again for a great post.

Through out human history, people have come together into communities. We are just wired that way. A few will choose to be loners, but overall, communities will always be the way most people choose to live. In rural America, even though many (most) of the population lived on farms, and the'wild west' or frontier is and was a romanitc ideal, the majority of people lived near enough a common area that a great deal of time was spent congregating.

There is no reason to believe this will ever change. People need each other; we're wired that way.

Lynnie,

The folks with the spring considered a Ram pump some years ago. Their problem is that the loss of the water to run the ram (usually it's around 10 gallons lost for each gallon pumped) wouldn't leave them with enough water. Even a loss of 1:1 would be too much. They already have 5,000 gallons stored on my land so they can graviry feed their house.

There is a similar situation with the pond; even though it is spring fed so it never goes totally dry, there is never any overflow except now and then when we have big rains in winter. There are some alternatives I can think of for the future. FWIW the pond is only about an acre so it's not that big.

Todd

PS The meadow is ABOVE the pond.

Back to dryland farming....I have a lot of garden seeds but they are not drought oriented and I've been thinking of trying to get some hardy old fashioned types that are lower yield but need less water. Far as I know virtually the entire nation grows high yield, high feeding corn/wheat/soy and I wouldn't know where to get ancient hardy strains that are drought tolerant even if we had room to grow them. Seed savers maybe.

A famine doomer crisis scenario appears inevitable

Lynnie,

One thing to look for would be crops/varieties with very short seasons since they can draw moisture from the soil before it drys out. For example, I grow Silver Queen sweet corn and also a number of native American corns (Hopi pink and blue and Navajo red and blue). The native corns are mostly short and mature quickly whereas the SQ is a 120 day corn that grows 7 feet tall.

In my area, even the little bit of hay that is grown has to be irrigated to get any kind of yield. If I look around my place I see nature telling it like it is - All the grasses are seasonal. They germinate when the rains start in fall, set seed and die by July. All of the trees depend upon associations with mycchorizal fungi to provide water and phosphorous. Otherwise, they won't make it. And, any seasonal things like berries have long tap roots that go down more then 3 or 4 feet.

It's interesting to note that the Indians in my area relied upon hunting-gathering rather then planting crops. There used to be plenty of stuff out there for food.

Todd

Todd said:

One issue that isn't resolved is clothing. There aren't enough deer around to provide everyone with buckskins so we'll have to grow some kind of fiber. This will probably be hemp. Hemp offers many advanatages since it produces prodigious amounts of nutritious seeds if pollinated and oil can be extracted from the seeds. But we'd have a huge learning curve to turn stiff stems into usable cloth. If we were smart, we'd all buy 20 year's worth of clothes and boots and avoid the clothing issue. It's unlikely any of the families will, including my wife and I.

Click to expand...

This probably will be the least of your challenges as there will be plenty more complete wardrobes, though used, suddenly coming available quick as the population begins to die off.

- Shane

Hello Todd,

Thanks for a great read. I'm getting ready to develop a spring on our 77 acre property in the south end of the county from you. We are designing a completely gravity powered system by using a Highlifter pump. The Highlifter drops 4.5 gal of water for each gal of water pumped to the holding tank above the house. Real Goods or AES have them in stock if you want to see one.

I calculate that system will deliver about 1gpm to the holding tank above the house all year long. To supplement our summer needs I will dump the lost water from the Highlifter pump into a holding tank and pump it with an electric pump when we have lots of PV power and need of water. We're planning on a 3.2kw PV system.

The neat thing about the Highlifter is that they are self starting, unlike a ram pump and they are quiet. Also they continue to pump as long as there is flow.

I'm going to try Painted Mountain corn here. It was developed in the mountains of Montana from native Mandan varieties, so hopefully it will do well in our climate.


Kathleen

Todd,

Given any thought to wind systems if possible in your area.

http://www.sunwindconcepts.bizland.com/id10.html

Buttie,

Since the spring isn't mine, it's sort of moot. The irony of the electric well pump is that the guy got a deal on the generator because it needed some work and the gas pump was a pain. Unfortunately, he never determined the head he was pumping to and bought a 1hp pump that only delivers 1GPM which is less then his gas pump. My well pump is set at 400' and I use 3hp for about 15GPM. He needed at least a 2hp but he never asked anyone about it.

Feel free to stop by if you get up this way. I hardly ever get south unless I want to do a COSTCO run in SR. Usually I go up to Eureka since it's a nicer drive.


End Game,

I used to have a 1.5kW Whisperwatt wind generator but sold it. The problem was that I had to go far higher then I wanted to go. I had it set on a 40' mast and it really needed to be 80-100'. I sold it because it really wouldn't have done what I wanted even then - it's a long story.

Todd

Todd said:

Continuing Part Three....

One issue that isn't resolved is clothing. There aren't enough deer around to provide everyone with buckskins so we'll have to grow some kind of fiber. This will probably be hemp. Hemp offers many advanatages since it produces prodigious amounts of nutritious seeds if pollinated and oil can be extracted from the seeds. Todd

Click to expand...

In a huge die-off, I don't worry about things like clothes or tools b/c they'll be laying around for the taking.

Also, there a fairly good chance that people will move closer to town for mutual protection.


Rage

Have you ruled out methane digestors in place of propane? If so, why?

Was the nuclear target around Mt. Shasta, Kingsley Field here at Klamath Falls? There's a small AF base (mostly Guard, I think, or reserves -- not sure), and also a radar dome on top of a hill near us.


Kathleen

Todd,

Thanks for the invitation, strangely enough I'd been thinking about asking you as we have some friends who bought 120 acres about 6 mi east of your town and we're going to make a trip up there to see their property. I'll PM you when I know when.

todd- a constructive criticism, if i may...

any plan that includes "Run to the store" has a significant failure point built into it. My own do too at the present (unfortunately) and i worry about that, and hope to plug those gaps soon-thats high on my priority list.

Seed isnt that expensive, and storage shouldnt be much of a problem, except for the few types like alliums that have a short storage life. Thats one issue that would be really hard to remediate at crunch time if there wasnt any, or a way to get it. IMHO I'd consider it a high priority to get that covered, at least for the main calorie crops.

Funny thing is, I was just going thru my seed boxes last week, and deciding to do just that, as germination tests on some of the stuff from pre rollover dropped too low (I didnt have a cool basememt till this year, they were being stored at room temps) and i discarded them. This year, I'll grow out some extra for seeds on some varieties, and buy some extra this month to replace what Ive discarded.

good plans. I'm interested in pest control, myself, and avoiding losses in storage for crops Ive put up. Not to mention West Nile, and other nasties that may come into play when mosquito and other vermin pops rise as the ecological niches change. Have you planned to grow your own natural pesticides or otherwise addresss those issues? what about livestock worms? I'd be interested in your thoughts or experiences on those issues.

They're not exactly the "sexy side of survivalism", but little things like that might make quite a difference in production-and that might make a difference in survival and carrying capacity.

"...It's interesting to note that the Indians in my area relied upon hunting-gathering rather then planting crops. There used to be plenty of stuff out there for food..."

Something to consider when you start scouting 'bugout/fortup' places. What did the aboriginal inhabitants do there?

And why did they do that instead of something else?

And if you are going to do something radically different, do you think you can pull it off over the long haul?

Most of the stuff I read here looks like it is good for less than a generation, at best.

I don't expect the starving masses to go quietly. They will quickly become vicious hoards and the sight of wood smoke or the sounds of livestock will bring them in fast. How will you deal with determined gangs who have nothing to loose and keep coming and coming? Think Vikings, Gauls, US Troops etc. I'm sure owning a cow will be made illegal; politicians will survive, think Hitler.

As to how far just women and children will walk and struggle to survive just look at the world's refugee camps and the distance traveled to get to one. This doesn't include the healthy young armed men. Any that see or know what you have even if they are turned away will tell others. How will you deal with this?


Prayer: 'Jesus, I trust in you. Help me to be the Christian you want be to be especially during this time.'

Laura,

As I said in the post, seeds are a hole that needs to be mitigated, so I agree with you basically.

Let's assume that nukes fly as a worst-case. My county is located such that bombs and fallout aren't a serious problem and where I live it should be no problem at all - in fact, it's probably the safest place in the continental US.

However, it is likely we will be cut-off from everything. In that case, people are going to head for the grocery store not nursury. Once that food is gone, people are going to head south toward towns south of us (The nearest town north of us is over well 50 miles and it is much smaller then any of the southern towns.)

Further, we (or at least me) really do have good knowledge of what the Indians ate as a fall-back position and, with firearms, can get game pretty easily to tide us over plus fish from the pond.

Lastly, I didn't say I didn't have enough seed for us but rather enough seed for a balanced diet. I have lots of various corns, squash and tomatoes. I don't have enough wheat, potatoes, melons or greens (unless people want to eat sugar beet greens - I have tons of that seed).


Rage,

Methane generation doesn't make any real sense for us since we have wood out the whazoo for wood gas. I have the 57Ac of which, probably, 30Ac are forested. Besides that there are 50 or more acres of land north of us that is also forest and in a worst-case the people who own it won't be around.

We can get ample wood for wood gas just picking it up off the forest floor.


Rose,

You are welcome to your opinion on the hordes but I see it as a city/suburban problem. As I said, few are going to get here. We'll block the road by felling trees across them and I believe TPTB are going to shut down exit from urban areas in any case.

But let's say a few get through. My area isn't like some suburb that you can cruise through picking targets. It's mountains with one lane, unpaved roads with woods on both sides and everyone has firearms - lots and lots of firearms.

Further, city people are not going to make the effort to actually haul their butts up steep hills on foot.

No, I see problems with some locals but not outsiders. And, even the locals won't get far because the word will go out who they are and that's it for them. You have to remember that people in the country know who is who. We know who it is even if we don't see them because we know what they drive. It is hard to be anonomous (sp).

Plus, there will probably be a massive die-off in the urban areas making more food available for those that survive so they'll stay there.

Todd

Todd

Could one of your families run a few sheep for wool, milk, etc. Compost their droppings, etc. With a spinning wheel and homemade loom, you would have fabrics at hand. Now is the time to learn that type of skill? Thank you for your interesting thoughts and plans. Mari Susan

Tosca,

The answer is yes and no. Sheep have actually been run on the adjoing range off and on for 50 years. The last guy who ran sheep there about 10 years ago had a problem with the golden eagles taking his lambs but that's not the real problem now.

The BIG problem is that none of us has any sheep expertise. Personally, other then knowing several people who have flocks in other parts of our county (They're about 80 miles away), no sheep are even run in my area any more because of prices so there isn't even someone close by who could guide us.

Here's my feeling about action in a worst-case scenario: You pretty much have to stick with what you know or you'll waste time and effort that could be put to better use. I'm sure we could eventually learn how to handle sheep but in the mean time, we could be running cows even if we couldn't shoot them up for diseases. I understand cows. I don't understand sheep.

I agree the wool would be nice but we don't know how to shear either.

Todd

Bump.

This one's far too good to let it get lost. Thanks, Todd!!!

Todd.

I have hesitated to post to this thread because I didnt want to hijack it or create any disharmony, but you posted on another thread that you will let this thread die soon.

I am confident that you and I and quite a few others are seeing the same facts quite clearly, but we disagree on what is the most appropriate response.

If I were older and ready to retire to the country my plans would be different, but I dont think Peak Oil will be a uniform, crippling blow/crash for everyone/everywhere at the same time.

I do think that if you visualize the current industrial society as a pyramid with numbers of people on the X axis and per capita energy use or incomes on the Y axis, the trend will be a great narrowing of the pryamid with more at the base and less at the top.

This will result in increasing DEATHS from a great number of causes. It will be a more competitive world. BUT

Peak Oil does not mean No Oil. Peak Oil implies a restriction of the maximum available supply. Barring a global thermal nuclear/bio chem meltdown, Peak Oil will not be a one time Crash, but rather a prolonged and very painful downsizing for the foreseeable future. The End only comes when population stabilizes at a lower level with per capita energy use based on flows. This could take 50+ years.


So rather than moving to the country for a subsistence lifestyle. I am:

1. looking to develop methods over the long term that are based on renewable flows.

2. seeking to develop competitive technological advantages to position higher on Complexity pyramid.

3. seeking to enhance my own Value added know-how in my employement, including some free lance consulting.


My read is even if global markets collapse today, theywill still be 10 - 20 years or more of oil remaining although at higher prices to achieve demand destruction. Swampthing's other post on the amount of demand destruction needed to close the shortfall between demand and supply rings close to my expectation. AS some demand is destroyed, those that are most competitive and can pass on the higher costs, will survive and maybe even thrive.

My Plan A is to compete for whats left so as to be able to afford the higher prices while building for the long term sustainable community with my friends and neighbors.

In the End we all Die, I hope to develop something longer lasting across multiple generations. I got my 18 y o daughter into understanding the impacts and changes due to Peak Oil.

I was thinking this AM that this thread had "died" too quickly.

Very minor comment, but the problem of nutrition from greens is easily solved with a few Euell Gibbons books or something similar. Nettles are delicious, same with lambs quarters, better than spinach IMO. Milkweed quite tasty. Etc.

If you could grow alfalfa to seed, then you have sprouts all year.

Bill,

I think where we differ significantly is how we see the end game played out. Not to put words in your moth but I feel you see a collapse similar to the Depression where, although there was 30% unemployment and many bankrupcies and foreclosures, society continued.

In contrast, I see society shutting down regardless of remaining energy resources. My reason for believing this is many fold. First, the US is not self-sufficient in manufacturing. Second, people today have limited skills, that is, they are "service" people. Third, people live in a reality that is divorced from living. By this I mean that their reality is going to stores to buy stuff, especially food. Fourth, the US is no longer a cohesive society with a common belief system. Fifth, people appear to be unsatisfied with life unless they acquire "stuff". You and I are both old enough to remember when this wasn't the case.

We also appear to have different views of rural living. Over the years I have lived in or near Cleveland, NYC, Philly, SF and DC. I have also spent about half my life living in less populated and rural areas. You infer that my Plan B is subsistance living whereas I don't see it that way at all. Yes, growing food will take a lot of time and be damn hard. But at the end of the day, I'll still have a 2,400SF house and thousands of books. If I can still make power and the equipment doesn't die I'll also have records, tapes and videos. I can sit outside and see for miles down the valley and out over the ocean and see the stars at night. I'm not going to be stuck with the hard scrabble of urban or suburban life.

Now, I love my life in the boondocks so well that I haven't ever felt the need for a vacation in over 30 years even though country living is far more challenging, that is, it can be damn hard right now. hy is that the case? First, my life has purpose and meaning. When I told my co-workers back east that I was moving to the boondocks in California they all said, "I'd love to do that but...". The "but" was that they had defined themselves by their jobs and job title. In contrast, my beingness isn't defined by others or how they see me.

Second, I can operate at the fringes of society. Yes, I buy things at the store but, and this is an important but, I don't have to.

Third, as my initial post indicates, we have far more community on my road then most people ever experience even though we aren't a community.

Lastly, we are doing "it". We aren't talking about some nebulous thing that we might do some day. AS I said on the other thread, what has amazed my about the responses to this thread is that no one has come forward with their Plan B. I've certainly enjoyed the other posts but am I the only person on this entire forum who has actually developed a Plan B for more then themselves? Our plan certainly has holes as I've indicated but it will work. Where is someone else's plan for their immediate neighbors for when a worst-case scenario hits?

The bottom line is this: The vast majority of people only talk about doing something. Our Plan B may not be for everyone but I hope it gives framework that will lead others to plan in the same way.

I'd like to continue this but I have to answer Lynnie and then get out in my orchard to deal (again) with my mole problem. I've tried lots of stuff. This time I'm going to emulsify used engine oil with Pine-Sol and flush it down the tunnels. I wish I had the two grand for a Rodenator. That's country living for you.

Todd

Lynnie,

The problem with alfalfa is that it requires tons of water in the west. I have a friend who grows 300Ac in the Central Valley and he has a 1,000 gallon per minute irrigation pump going almost all the time.

It really makes more sense for us to gather the same stuff that the Indians used to use.

Todd

"no one has come forward with their Plan B."

I realize it was controversial and not particularly well supported, but this was the whole point behind the recent Bruce Beach paper on Reconstruction after Nuclear War that some of us shelled out money to buy stacks of. Loosely based on an old FEMA plan for local community economic groups, it provides a framework for a local authority structure putting agriculture first and controlling rationing, in theory to get through a few harvests-or longer- as a local comunity.

A lot of people didn't like the tight authority structure or "communistic" rationing, but after a incredible disaster stopping all travel and all shipping, it's the only semblance of a detailed plan I've seen besides yours Todd. It might be better than yours in the sense that you are very well equipped, and this might be better for a small group of folks who are not well equipped.

For a family like us it would mean sharing our 8 months or so of food and seeds with local families who have nothing but land, in hopes that the local silos of feed corn and soybean fields would keep us all going for a couple years. Everyone would have to get shovels and hoes and put in a garden. But I don't know how it would work in reality because I don't know how well the hybrid corn and beans would produce the next couple years. Plus no fertilizers. Plus we would have to have a lot of confidence with the folks we networked with, and maintain armed guards.

Realistically there can not be a good plan for total collapse IMO unless you are very, very, rural. Even though we have land and farms around, we are only an hour from the start of NYC's metropolis of 35 million people, and less than that from the millions around Philly. I find it wiser to prep for partial collapse that sees shipping restored within a year or allows us to relocate ( with gold and silver and cash), or else to die here. I just don't see how local groups can make it without incredible security, and the few guns on my road don't qualify.

Anyway, I find your dialogue with Bill P to be among the highest level of doomer/prepper literature available.

Well having the ability to produce your own food for a sustainable period of time would be a must in a medium/long term shtf scenario. I admit that I never gardened before in my life. Maybe now would be a good time to start learning on how to do this. I will soon have access to freely use my families property in the country. I say soon because certain arrangements were made in the past where someone else was living there for many years because we were busy with other obligations elsewhere. I plan on getting myself a gardening for dummies book and then going at it. Funny thing is that it's my wife whos going to laugh at me for doing this and i'm the man? Anyway as far as I can remember we have decent sized garden that used to grow rubarb,some berries, and few various vegetables. I'm not sure how much the current tenants have been using it lately, but ill find out soon enough. Were near a lake where theres plenty of fish so that helps also. FYI this property is about 2hours out of the city and is my fallback in a shtf scenario, given that I am able to vacate the city and before everyone else does. Two big IF's, but it's better than nothing. Any recommendations on some easy to grow foods for a beginner? Also I don't know how often I will be able to go out there to tend to things but I will try to go as often as possible.

I sort of have a plan B, which includes my neighbors, but my neighbors don't know about it, so I wasn't going to post anything. But here goes . . . .


This is a rural subdivision, with almost every house on a one acre, or more, lot. Zoning allows for livestock, and a lot of people have horses, a few have poultry, and there are a couple of head of cattle. As far as I know, I'm the only one with goats. Most people don't have gardens, because the deer have been allowed to multiply and are fed like some people feed birds. If I let my goats wander all over the place and do the kind of damage these deer are doing, the goats would get shot, and rightfully so. As life becomes more difficult, the deer will go in the stew pot rather quickly, I'm sure, but there won't be too many people with seeds for planting gardens, and there aren't a whole lot of mature fruit trees in the neighborhood, either. None of us have woodlots, obviously, but the National Forest isn't too far away, and we should be able to get permits to cut wood there. There are enough horses to haul it home -- presumably someone will be ingenious enough to be able to build the rigs to haul the wood on.

I think people are our most important resource, and most of the folks who live out here have at least some skills that will be valuable in a TSHTF situation. There are a few I'm not too sure about, such as one of my next-door neighbors (a psychiatrist who travels a lot giving talks) -- he hires all his yard work done. His handyman ought to be a useful person, though! A lot of the folks in this area are retired, and some are in poor health. If they survive, they have a lot of useful knowledge. If they don't, maybe their land will become community pasture or hayfields.

We live close to the Klamath River, and can haul water from the river if necessary. However, I plan to make my hand pump available for community use as long as some of the skilled people will help maintain it.

I think there are enough other people with poultry that we will be able to share roosters and keep our stock from becoming inbred. Not so sure about the goats. I only have one buck, and will need to get another one within a couple of years or breed him to his daughters. By the end of this year I'll have four does in milk, but that wouldn't supply enough milk for the whole community. I think milk goats will be a very valuable commodity in the future . . . . nobody here has enough land to keep a cow and grow all it's feed. And I can only milk a few goats by hand, as I have carpal tunnel, so I couldn't supply all the milk even if I had room for that many goats. Young goats take at least a year to grow up enough to milk. I think that is going to be a tight spot to get through, as there are quite a few children around, and some babies.

Quite a few families around here have wood stoves, a few may have generators. My next door neighbor on the other side from the psychiatrist seems to be quite a mechanic and has a large collection of old vehicles in the back yard -- they all run, and get used -- including a water truck. I don't know exactly how that will be useful, but I'm sure it will be. I like having people around who know how to do things with their hands.

Defense of our area could become an issue. I expect most families have at least one rifle, and most probably have more, but we have two roads running through. It's at least sixty miles to the next town (other than Klamath Falls, which is twelve miles away), and I think that if gas is not available we aren't going to see a whole lot of people coming over the mountains to the west. But defense is something that would have to be addressed, hopefully before anybody actually ran into problems.

I've got to go -- have to run to town and do some things -- will think about this and maybe write some more later.

Kathleen

Lynnie and Kathleen,

A sincere thank you to both of you for your posts. This is the direction I hoped this thread would take.

And, by the way, I have had one response to my offer for a visit. I'm certainly open for more. Make it a vacation since we're only a half an hour from where the redwoods start and I can tell you how to get over to the Lost Coast (Hum?).

Todd

LMonty911 said:

Seed isnt that expensive, and storage shouldnt be much of a problem, except for the few types like alliums that have a short storage life. Thats one issue that would be really hard to remediate at crunch time if there wasnt any, or a way to get it. IMHO I'd consider it a high priority to get that covered, at least for the main calorie crops.

Funny thing is, I was just going thru my seed boxes last week, and deciding to do just that, as germination tests on some of the stuff from pre rollover dropped too low (I didnt have a cool basememt till this year, they were being stored at room temps) and i discarded them. This year, I'll grow out some extra for seeds on some varieties, and buy some extra this month to replace what Ive discarded.

good plans. I'm interested in pest control, myself, and avoiding losses in storage for crops Ive put up. Not to mention West Nile, and other nasties that may come into play when mosquito and other vermin pops rise as the ecological niches change. Have you planned to grow your own natural pesticides or otherwise addresss those issues? what about livestock worms? I'd be interested in your thoughts or experiences on those issues.

Click to expand...

A few years ago, I was inventoring our seed stash, and found seeds from the late 80's-90's. Old bear tilled the garden as usual, and we randomly threw out seeds just to see what would happen. We kept like things together, i.e., cucumbers, squash, pumpkins in the same area, all the "beans" together, etc. Then we forgot about it. Later, things starting coming up despite our neglect. The cucumbers, pumpkins and some of the beans did quite well. The turnip greens were a raging success, as were some onions. So, somethings will grow regardless of how you tend them. That said, we have been developing our gardening skills for 7 years now, and finally have hit on the raised bed/square foot gardening method. We use lots of cattle panels supported by T-posts. They support the tomatoes, and vine plants beautifully, as well as beans. Melons did great growing up the panels. You can use wire fence, but the cattle panels are so sturdy, you never have to worry about them. We hung the panels about 1 foot off the ground so the bed can be cleaned out at the end of the season.

We also have learned that growing your own food is not an easy task. It requires lots of work. While I love the idea of organic gardening, unless you have lots of time to stand over the garden picking bugs, you are going to need lots of sevin dust! I would imagine if kept dry, it would have a long shelf life. We also have some diatomatious earth for pests in the garden. We also have fruit tress that are just beginning to produce as well as raspberries, blueberries, blackberries, and grapes. Our biggest problem has been keeping deer out of the garden and away from the trees. Old bear just finished a new 10 ft high fence with additonal barbed wire. We have a solar fence charger and are going to add electricity to discourage them more.

I have heard that geese and certain ducks are good in the garden as they eat the pests but leave the folage alone. I need more research on that one.

As for pest control in animals, diatomatious earth as long as we can get it. Also tobacco is toxic for bugs, but not animals, so we give our critters a little chaw of tobacco every now and then for worms.

As for seed gathering at the last minute....a few years ago we lost all of our squash plants to some worm and I went everywhere to get more seeds. It was late July, and no one had any seeds. Even walmart said they send all the seeds they don't well, back to the manufacturer. We were out of luck, so we need to stock up again and store in a cool, dry place.

We are in pretty good shape for water as we have a great well and quite a few springs on the property. In a SHTF sitation, we would need our extended family to show up to have enough people for working and protecting the place. We are in a rural farming/ranching community, but there is not a real sence of community there.

I hope this thread stays alive and well for a good while. We are working thru all of the scenarios Todd mentioned. We are planning for the worst case, but are trying to keep perspective and enjoy life along the way.

I think we have an endless supply of wood for cooking, heating, etc. As far as the clothing issue, I agree with another poster who mentioned there would probably be plenty around. Plus we have a substantial amount stored as well. Speaking of storage,.....a few years ago, we made a bunch of deer jerky, dried lots of apples and tomatoes. I stored them in food saver vacuum bags in a cardboard box and put in the root cellar. We went to get some jerky one day and discovered a critter, mouse, squirrel, etc. had eaten into almost every bag there. Another time we had several very nice inflatable mattresses chewed by critters, same with canvas foldaway lawn chairs. NOW, we keep all of that stuff in heavy duty plastic boxes (Rubbermaid style), and have had no problems. So check your storage.

I could go on and on as this is one of my favorite subjects but I am headed for bed. Thanks Todd an all for a great thread.

Bump...

for the week end crowd to see if they have any new ideas. I hate to see this thread die before we have all the answers.

Todd...

I am wondering about letting your chickens and turkeys forage......we had 18 chickens and only had 7 left after a couple of weeks.....finally figured out where the fox had his den.

So would you have an area fenced off or secure that they could forage in......how about those chicken "tractors" (Movable wire covered triangles on wheels)? Also having a donkey might help fend off larger creatures.....do you have cougar up where you are?

What if the "event" that precipitated removing yourself from the community was an earthquake neaby which damaged your home and infrastructure, and you couldn't get to the stores, or even to each other's homes. Has anyone got enough room for the rest of the families?

We can grow anything in our fertile soil as long as we have a little rain.....and we can pump from our well - we need to get a backup generator just for that purpose and as we rebuild our house on a new foundation we will incoporate some of the things I have learned here about power and water into the home.
Need to put in a storage tank for water to save the well being pumped a lot. Need to plant more fruit trees this year too.....we don't have a long growing season and it is harsh, so we have little selection, but grown great raspberries and saskatoons.

The neighbor next door raises goats - breeding stock meat goats to export to USA, but no other animals......across the road, they are grain farmers and next door is a man who can build/weld/fix anything......two doors down is a gardener and next to him is a man in construction and boat building. A lot of bright intelligent people who just want to be left alone to enhoy their place in the country, but who still enjoy city amenities when they can. And who don't have any extra food stored or at least none they talk about. After all the local store is 5 minutes walk away.

But this is Canada and I really don't think we are going to be affected nearly as much as the USA....unless the missile shield doesn't work and one drops on us