[poll] Prepper Anxiety Poll, June 16 '04 (First of a series)

Long-term PERSPECTIVE.

That's the goal for beginning this poll series.

A.T. Hagan, Night Driver, and others have contributed to the idea that this kind of poll, measuring member responses over time, can clearly demonstrate how anxiety here is cyclical and that it periodically reaches high points where even the "old hands" feel stressed. See: http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=974395#post974395

To those who have been here for any length of time, the fact of regularly occurring high anxiety over perceived threat factors may be all too apparent.

Nonetheless, there could be a real and worthwhile value to tracking member stress. The main objective would be to serve as a point of reference, as time goes on, that provides all of us (but especially the newer folks) a substantive means of realizing that the end of the world is a regularly scheduled event at TB2K ... and that no one should quit their job, pull the kids out of school, sell the townhouse, or change much of anything in his/her life over an almost certain-to-pass threat identified on this board.

Yes, risk and threat ARE real and disaster happens on varying scales. But so do lightning strikes and lottery jackpots. Put it all into context. Prep but don't bail out of your life.

Enough said on why.

Edited to update poll frequency ...
Going forward ... anyone is free to post a follow-up poll as time goes on. We are thinking it should be taken at least on a twice-monthly basis ... on the 1st and 15th every month. But it might be that it ought to be taken between those periods as we perceive the group's anxiety to be reaching another high point. Voting on each poll should be closed by a mod after five days to preserve relevant data.

The important thing in posting follow-up polls is to use the same poll/thread title used here (with the appropriate date) and the same question/responses (for consistency in the data). The same thread title will allow for easy searching of all polls in the future. Eventually, we will be able to chart/graph the results.

Last comment: We encourage folks to not only respond to the polls but post in the threads why they are feeling highly stressed (if they are), since that will provide a record of context for future reference.

I've been active in "doomer" activities since late 1998. My anxiety level is high in the evenings when I'm tired and buy into almost everything...but I'm just beginning to realize that and NOT buy into as much.

I think there's a .001 of anything really big happening. In other words, I tell myself that 9.9 times out of 10 the things that are talked about on this board generally never come to pass...at least they haven't thus far.

However, I know that reading the posts and trying to keep somewhat of a balance is necessary. If I don't I'll let my preps slide (been there, done that).

So, I read, get scared, calm down and check the preps. I've stayed almost fully prepared now since 1999. Took about 6 months to a year to get there and now I just stay there.

When I let the prepps slide it's costly to bring them back up. Usually costs me $800 + just to put back what we've used.

Today, I'm fully prepped and feel good about it and know that 9.9 out of 10 things talked about won't come about. Pretty good odds thus far.

We all know "it" is going to happen some day. Maybe today, maybe not. But for the last almost 3 years we've been pretty scott free of any major happening here in the USA.

Gotta live, and hopefully enjoy life as we know it today.

Good poll.

JC Refuge,

Sometimes my entire mood depends on whether I slept well or not. If I had vivid dreams or tossed-and-turned then I'm ready to pack and go!

That's not always the case, full moons for instance, but no sleep and reading BS can really send that meter sky high.

Maybe the sleep factor could be considered?

what'd I know

Mary (no garden, no lamb)

Shane's post did it. Here you have someone supposedly in *the know* basically saying something BIG WILL HAPPEN within two weeks and that, if I'm perceiving correctly, the entire civilized world won't be able to dismiss that this will have been a terrorist act of huge proportion.

There are alot, well a fair amount of posters on this board posting it's nearly teotwawki, usually have been since I've been here. But I don't remember Shane ever saying anything like this.

So, I'm a bit concerned. Of course I've been on edge and fighting a constant battle with a bucket of nerves since the baby died, so I may have more anxiety because of that as well.

But I refuse to let fear control me.

Good poll. Hopefully it will fade off to a back page and three or four weeks from now we can all have a beer and talk about it.

huntersdada said:

Shane's post did it. Here you have someone supposedly in *the know* basically saying something BIG WILL HAPPEN within two weeks and that, if I'm perceiving correctly, the entire civilized world won't be able to dismiss that this will have been a terrorist act of huge proportion.

Click to expand...

HD, can you point me to this post? I don't remember seeing anything on the main forum or in the bomb shelter, and I think I might've overlooked it.

Thanks!

Fred said:

HD, can you point me to this post? I don't remember seeing anything on the main forum or in the bomb shelter, and I think I might've overlooked it.

Thanks!

Click to expand...

this thread

First page.

I have to admit that Shane's post alarmed me considerably. I know beyond a shadow of a doubt that *someday* something will happen. The Bible says so, and God's Word is true, even if it seems like nothing happens for a long time. (And there is even a prophecy about that, saying that in the end times people will not believe that they are in the end times because 'everything keeps going along the way it always has' [paraphrased considerably!]) But there is always so much uncertainty as to when, that all we can usually do is try to get prepped and stay there, then go on with life. My main concerns usually are more along the lines of a winter storm or something like that, as those happen with some regularity and we've several times been thankful for our preps as a result. But just because war on our own soil hasn't happened in our lifetimes doesn't mean it never will, and I think all the dots indicate that we are getting very close (within ten years, perhaps) to just such a situation. That's one thing I don't think I'll ever be really prepared for -- as a middle-aged woman with an elderly grandmother and handicapped daughter to care for, it would be very difficult to either run and hide, or stand and fight. So I pray that our 'leaders' will manage to avert the threat of war here.

Kathleen

Were it not June I'd have chosen <i>a bit concerned </i> rather than <i>watchful, ready, and checking the preps, just in case</i> because I'm not very tense over the world situation just now.

But it is June, which means hurricane season has started, so I stay on top of the weather more closely in the season than any other time of the year. Being a CERT member I may be away from home after a storm so must have things squared away sufficiently that my wife can manage in my absence.

Subtracting natural disasters I am, at worst, only a bit concerned. Mostly about large terror attacks here in the U.S. That concern isn't about finding myself or my family the victim of one, but rather the ramifications of such an attack as they concern the way our government will behave and the way the general population will behave. If a nuke goes off in Washington it is plainly not going to directly impact me here in Florida, but when the government and general populace goes bananas that will certainly have the potential to directly impact us all.

I do want to qualify one small point that J.C. makes in his initial post, at least from my point of view.

<i>Nonetheless, there could be a real and worthwhile value to tracking member stress. The main objective would be to serve as a point of reference, as time goes on, that provides all of us (but especially the newer folks) a substantive means of realizing that the end of the world is a regularly scheduled event at TB2K ... and that no one should quit their job, pull the kids out of school, sell the townhouse, or change much of anything in his/her life over an almost certain-to-pass threat identified on this board.

Yes, risk and threat ARE real and disaster happens on varying scales. But so do lightning strikes and lottery jackpots. Put it all into context. Prep but don't bail out of your life.</i>

In the years since TB2K has come to be I have never seen anything cross this board that would have led me to just up and quit my job, pack up the family, and head for the bushes. Short of a very visible, literal threat that would make staying where I was at unsafe doing such a thing would be foolishness of the first order.

BUT, and this is a major one, if you take the time and effort to give your decisions the considered thought and exploration you ought to give them I do advocate moving out of the cities and suburbs.

A former TB2K regular by the handle of Lee Lapin termed this "moving to the margins."

The idea is find a place to live in the country, in or near to a small town and village, and make a life there. There are a world of fairly low probability scenarios out there we may all possibly be concerned with that would take several thousand words to describe. Nearly all of them involve severe medium- to long-term disruptions of the intricate logistical network that keeps American civilization alive. A significant disruption for any real length of time will make survival in major urban/suburban areas a hard road to travel. It is my belief, and the belief of quite a few other preparedness writers as well, that long-term survival chances will be better where you'll be close enough to others that have skills or goods you do not possess that you can trade for, but not so high in population density that human numbers alone will become a significant threat to survival - in other words small cities, small towns, and villages.

This, of course, means first determining you have some way of making a living where you'll be relocating to, or commuting a reasonable distance to where you can make a living. This may take weeks, to months, to years before you can accomplish that. Then there is finding a homestead that suits you and that you can afford. Then there is making yourself a part of the local community. Perhaps planting fruit and nut trees that will take years to come to fruition, maybe raising livestock, and so on and so on. Those last several items are not strictly required depending on your personal interests, skill sets, and preps, but many find them worthwhile undertakings.

All of these things take time, considered thought, and perhaps a great deal of effort, so are not matters to be undertaken lightly or hurriedly. If you're not from such a background it may require a lifestyle change, a matter also to be carefully thought out. Even if you are from such a background you'll have to think about whether you want to go back to it.

Weighty undertakings such as these should never be taken on solely to improve your survival chances. At least not in the sense that survival is usually understood to be on boards such as TB2K. In the larger sense of the word though that is precisely what you would be doing - improving your survival chances by changing your lifestyle.

Something to think about.

.....Alan.

Yep, Shane's post got my attention.

He is tuned in to what is happening and I consider this a big heads-up.
Pray that he is wrong...

Good point Mr. Hagan! You wrote:

In the years since TB2K has come to be I have never seen anything cross this board that would have led me to just up and quit my job, pack up the family, and head for the bushes. Short of a very visible, literal threat that would make staying where I was at unsafe doing such a thing would be foolishness of the first order.

---------------------------------------

If there isn't anything "yet" that has prompted us to pick up and leave (which most of us can't do) then the trick is to stay balanced, prepped and watchful.

We live in the country which was much more country 13 years ago but is fast becomming suburbs . However, there is about 1200 acres all around us that most likely won't be built upon and we're 4 1/2 miles from our small town and have 4 lakes within walking distance, a small stream on our property and we're off the road up a hill that takes a 4 x 4 to get to the house.

DH is Federal Police which we hope will give us some advantages if we need to move around.

So all, in all, we're prepped and still learning to balance.

In 1999 (pending Y2K) my family actually did 'bug out' of Houston. We moved to TN on family land, built our house, got preps, etc. Nothing happened. However, this was the best move we ever made. It has really taken us this past 4 yrs. to get everything in order (water situation, outhouse, etc). I just thought we were ready in 1999! Even if nothing happens now, which I don't believe, our family situation has improved in every way. Do I stress out about news now? Not like I used to. I'm still like a tick on TB2K though!

I will admit to getting nervous sometimes based on what is discussed here. My first thoughts on the Aussie Bloke thing was "OH Sh!#$" But then I thought it through and just sat back and read. The chances of something like that happening are pretty small. Sure it is possible, but pretty unlikely.

Now Shanes post made me more nervous. Im not running around freaking out, but am alittle more agitated than normal. I have spent alot of time here in the last 2 days. That is how I measure my "disaster nervousness" level - by the amount of time I spend here. There is a whole lot more there that seems likely. There are several people here that seem very level headed that I tend to pay more attention to, and he is one of them. I went to his website and read up on everything. I would love to buy one of those radiation meters and the K1 pills but I cant afford that right now, but what I could afford to do was buy the bottles of Betadine he mentioned, so that is what I did.

These scares make me more aware of the things I still want to do, prep wise. Im not selling the house and pulling the kids out of school, but it reminds me to do the things I can do.

When the huricane came through here last year, I finally felt like I didnt have to explain my crazy prep ideas to anyone. Everyone suddenly thought that having these things was a good idea. But it takes a documented imminant emergency to get most people hopping. I didnt have to go to 20 stores looking for batteries the night before the hurricane because I already had them. Suddenly I wasnt so crazy afterall.

It is very easy to get caught up in this stuff, but really all you can do is wait and see what is gonna happen. Im certain something will happen, probably sooner rather than later, so I will continue to try to be as ready as possible, but Im not gonna crawl in a hole and hide either. My family thinks Im nuts enough as it is!

After a diffficult week (of real world stuff) very little sleep and reading on several boards, I think you need one more option:

Burned out and looking forward to the asteroid.

I'll get a good nights sleep tonight and give you a real answer tomorrow.

If you let fear control your life, you eventually won't have much of one. Stay alert, and prep the best as you can. What will happen will happen.

Each day is a precious gift, so use it wisely.

sorry about the thread drift, but Huntersdada, what happened to your baby? You could PM me if you want...you have my condolences...I am so sorry for your loss!

---outnumbered 10

Interesting Bell curve at this point- 7-21-48-21-0
Thanks for asking!
Jack

Absolutely no worries. Unusual for me over the last 3 years I've been here at TB2K. I think it's because it's summer, and I'm spending 8 or more hours a day out in the yard gardening, landscaping, etc. *If* I get an hour or two here at night, I'm lucky. Lots of exercise, fresh air, and no over-exposure to the news/theories. I love this place, but it can be detrimental to your health. I'm also seeing that we're better prepped with each paycheque, so I'm also less susceptible to fear despite what I read here.

DH made a good point last night. One of the sites I peruse several times a day, in addition to here, is the USGS site for earthquakes. Last night I sat down at the computer for the first time yesterday. I said, "Oh, wow, see what happens when I don't get online all day? Mexico had a big earthquake today." To which he sarcastically replied, "Like it wouldn't have happened if you were online?" me!

Bugged

I don't usually get to worked up about the info flying around ,,,
But this thing with the aircraft carriers being deployed has me bugged big time
Allready told buissness partner If we go to war with NK I will close buissness tight and bugout for first 3 to 4 weeks .. ..
Am telling wife same thing tonight ..

huntersdada said:

this thread

First page.

Click to expand...

Thanks much!

I think Scrapman has it right. Our carrier groups plus the sun spots had me at an elevated concern. The clincher for me was listening to Mysteries of the Mind last night. Gartrel was so boring, I almost turned it off. Then a couple of guys called in and things started to get interesting. There's no doubt in my mind that TSWHTF in the next couple of months.

I voted "in the middle." I'm checking over the preps, mostly because school is out and I'm teaching online this summer, so I finally have the time.

The most frustrating thing for me is not knowing exactly what to prep for. It's impossible in terms of time and money to prep adequately for everything at once (especially when my friends and family think I'm nuts).

I have two tubs of bioterrorism preps: many of the items Canada Sue described on her classic smallpox thread (latex gloves, masks, bleach, etc.), fish antibiotics, normal meds for treating a variety symptoms. Then I have my "nuke preps:" KI, NukAlert, etc. I have been trying to come up with a fallout shelter plan (still have my old copy of "Nuclear War Survival Skills" from the '80's), but with no basement (they are rare in this part of Texas) the options are limited...

Lots of canned and dry food, three 55 gal drums of water (plus a creek beside our house and a good water filter), massive amounts of pet food, t.p., ordered 300 lbs of grains to replace the aging stash I'd put up in 1999. Batteries, rechargers (including solar), alternate fuels, non-electric gadgets...

I'm in a basically upscale subdivision, so I think defense issues are probably best left in the hands of others in the neighborhood (the entrance to our subdivision is quite easily defendable). This being Texas, the neighbors are well armed. However, I doubt that many have prepped to the degree I have (after all, they think I'm nuts), and I would probably be sharing much of what I have with my kids' friends (and their families). I envision being a sort of soup kitchen. So I have to hope whatever comes is short in duration. I am not prepped for the total collapse of civilization.

I did cancel a trip to visit family on the East Coast last New Years due to the orange alert situation, and have been hesitant to re-book. But my teenage daughter wants to take an out of state trip with her best friend next week...

I'm trying not to become obsessive with prepping, and there are still lots of career and family obligations to fill the day. But I am definitely checking over all the prep items and topping up the preps. I'm also trying to have a plan of action for a variety of scenerios to avoid panic.

<b>Deep Blue Dragon wrote:</b>
<i>The most frustrating thing for me is not knowing exactly what to prep for. It's impossible in terms of time and money to prep adequately for everything at once (especially when my friends and family think I'm nuts).</i>

Nearly all scenarios share at least 90% of the same preps in common. The usual stuff - food, water, communications, defense, medical, and so on.

Prep generally in these areas and you're most of the way being prepped for nearly anything.

THEN concentrate on whatever scenario specific preps may concern you.

.....Alan.

i had a hard time answering your poll. i'm watchful and ready, but i'm also in my bunker (i live here, lol).

DBD: My preps are very similar to yours and I thank the good Lord DH agrees with anything and everything I purchase. Course friends and family think I'm nuts, the ones who know..and they're few.

However we too don't have a basement and we live on a granite hill, digging a shelter is out of the question too. Not just because of the granite hill, but the cost.

We have three fresh water lakes within walking distance and a small stream on our property too.

But oh how I wish we had some kind of below ground shelter!! Even if it's just for tornados.

Alan: Yes, I've tried to take the shotgun approach to general prepping. I feel as well prepped as possible in terms of the "usual stuff".

I guess it's the nuke thing that has me hung up. If we had a basement I could quietly assemble a shelter... Remember, I'm already considered a "nut", so if I dig up the back yard or sandbag the living room they'll have me committed. I'm probably going to get materials for the sandbag scenario in any case and hope we get that "three days to prep" if it turns out to be nukes.

Sharon: At least for tornadoes we have the bathtub! Nukes do present additional complilcations.

RoseTower said:

After a diffficult week (of real world stuff) very little sleep and reading on several boards, I think you need one more option:

Burned out and looking forward to the asteroid.

I'll get a good nights sleep tonight and give you a real answer tomorrow.

Click to expand...

Ahahahhahahahahahaha.....!!!! :LOL: Definately.

Too Funny, It *had* to be seen again. I agree completely (still ROTF)

Mary (no garden, no lamb)

This poll

It seems to me this poll should run on a regular schedule....
Like open on Monday morning, close it after 5 days or so, then repeat each week.

If you only open the poll when someone wants to, you'l introduce a bias, IMHO.

soccerdad--ideally, yes, I think we would want to get continual measurements. But if we ran a new poll every week, it would tend to become "invisible" to people and too easy to overlook.

I think right now, we're trying for the middle ground ... we plan to run it mid-month every month with an option to post a special poll if and when the stress breaks out high and fast in an off period.

Ummmm JC.


Sample rate and size is important.

Granted that SIZE is impossible to maintain or to have a lot of effect on, but RATE makes it work or not....

Weekly IS the IDEAL but as you point out, invisibility would be almost immediate.

How about biweekly, run for 5 days?

or every 15 days for 5?

C

JC, it would be good to have an associate graph show up under each poll thread opening post, similar to the one CFI has on his postings, that shows the accumulated data from past pollings. just a thought...

Chuck and all ... I'm fine with every 15 days ... so we would post on the 1st and 15th of every month, with voting closing after five days. But if participation wanes too much, we would probably need to try the monthly posting.

So maybe the potential requirement for special, between-period polls will be reduced, but still we should retain that option if the need arises.

Again, I really want to encourage anyone and everyone to feel free to help this effort by posting the poll on the first and fifteenth of every month. It could too easily be forgotten if only one or two people are tasked with the responsibility.


Jed, I'm not sure how the graph you speak of would work. There wouldn't be any cumulative data per se. But I COULD see, after a couple of polls, that we could start a permanent thread where each poll's results would be posted (and individually graphed?--anyone know how we could do this?) and we could provide a link to that thread from each succeeding poll thread. I just think we need to keep it all as simple as possible and not labor intensive.

There is soo much going on that I could go crazy worrying about, but have this feeling that only I can understand that something is going to happen very soon.....eto

Very good poll.

It is mid 2004 and we are about where I thought we would be.. about a 4 on the 1-10 scale. We are not toast but it will be burnt here pretty soon.

I was on my walk today, and I reflected a lot. In 1999 the stock market was flying high, the only news story was fluff about Monica and the Dot coms rulled the world. Today 2004, we are at War, if the house of saud falls, we may not have any oil, we have had a major terroist attack on US soil, and the promise of many more...The debt burg is rolling over, inflation is here today, as many on this board can attest, finding a job is hard..I think we will progress up the scale by a point each year 2005 looks pretty well done... 2010? Well we may go over the 10.

Pats on the backs to all of you who bugged out an are safe... Save some camp space for me.. I am stuck in the city for a few more years.. But I can hold my own, and bring my own preps (except for the water... Too heavy )

A watched pot never boils....

Then the frog dies and we eat..

Helium

I'm a newbie (as to posting), but a long-time lurker and a longer-time prepper. I voted in the middle because that seems to be my personality. Being prepared for whatever may come.

After all, like many of you, have experienced blizzards, heavy snowfalls, high winds, -60 degree weather, volcanic eruptions,(actually those didn't affect us much -- only a few days) frequent power outages and am always in some form of prepper mode.

I have to confess being an aficionado of doomer fiction. Perhaps that has helped establish my prepper feelings.

Have actually used our generator a number of times since the rollover. We have always been a camping, fishing, hunting family so have the stuff that goes along with that. It's more a matter of just keeping stuff topped off. Have been lucky that it was done over a lengthy period of time and was possible. Living with like-minded people is a plus.

Think a lot of us have just been waiting for the other shoes to drop after 9-11.

I've been like the donkey in the first Shrek movie" I'm a donkey on the edge! " As a life long news hound , I see sooo many dots that do cause concern, but like so many have said you cannot stop living waiting on something bad to happen.

My parents & in-laws were from the depression era, so prepping is a way of life for us.

My biggest concern is living in a sub-division in a town of 50,000.
With health concerns we unable to move to a country place that would require a lot of work. Thankfully we have good neighbors who would probably help each other if things do get worse.

We do what we can to prep, & leave the rest in the Lord's hands .

Its the ships out that has me most bugged.
well that and the summer season in general with regards to Biblical prophecy and past trends. If we make it to the fall, then my concerns would be smaller scale I think. Localized terror or another 'war' in the ME then perhaps to be watched for. But till summer passes, I'm pretty edgy for our nation.

watchful, ready, and checking the preps, just in case

No longer "Burned and looking forward to the asteroid!" Got a little rest and my guest who had over stayed her welcome finally left.

There's just too much going on in the big wide world right now to be unconcerned. Also, living in S. California, being prepped and alert is a good thing what with earthquakes and wildfires and all.

So, I'm not taking extraordinary measure such as packing up the kitties and taking to the hills, so much as getting prepped as I should be for these times. FWIW, sometimes, I think the "wild" theories that go around open my mind to possibilites that weren't there before, get the adreniline going and bring back the determination to stay prepared.

Morning!

I voted for "watchful and ready" etc., but within myself I am also completely at peace, and not at all stressed out or worried. Life is capricious and it just makes sense to me to be prepared, but it makes no sense at all to me to be worried.

I should mention that I have discovered that I am also a fatalist. The Bible tells us in Psalm 139 that each of our days are numbered, and we will die when we are scheduled to die and not a moment before. So basically we are all indestructible until GOD is finished with us!

I find this incredibly liberating, and while I still prep, and scan this forum a few times a week just to stay moderately abreast of world events, I also like to see how individual people I have come to care a great deal about are faring, and that brings me here far more often than the news does.

Love to all, - Dee.

As a long time prepper (since 1995), first for Larry Burkett's "Coming Economic Earthquake", then for Y2K, and now for terrorism de jour, I am very familiar with the ups and downs and cyclical nature of the anxiety. I think my more casual attitude in recent weeks is due to the fact that so few of the predictions over the last ten years (none actually) have come to pass.

I might also say that my basic theological framework predisposes me to believe "someday" it's gonna be TEOTWAKI, but I've done all I can to get ready for it so I'm trying to live my life daily without all the worry. "Don't be anxious about tomorrow for tomorrow has enough worries of its own".

For future reference, links to some threads (all happen to be in the B.S.) that I think are representative of or actually contributing to current stress levels:

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=103957

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=104041

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=101726

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=100290

Feel free to add others.