[envr] BREAKING - Lahar warning on Mt Rainier

[Onebyone]

Manybooks,

The thing is if the quake is so bad to destroy all that south of there the northern sections of CA will be very bad too. Maybe you should move way north or way EAST like CO which should be much safer I would think!

IF Rainier blows then part of NYC goes in a huricane then I'm not setting foot in CA or AZ for that matter

Did anyone find out from an official source if Rainier was code 2 and really suspose to blow in 60 to 90 days?

[pliny the younger]

if st helens was any guide there is absolutely no, repeat NO evidence that the mountain is getting active. It is true there have been a string of earthquakes in this area, and they all seem to be centered in the nisqually area. Except for the numerous eqs on the mountain in the muir area in recent weeks, there is no magma kind of evidence. at the moment.

Funny thing though is there is a swarm of eqs at the seamount off Oregon

[Cascadians]

[ Fair Use: For Educational / Research / Discussion Purposes Only ]
http://www.oregonlive.com/newsflash/...wsflash-oregon
8/16/01 8:17 AM, by Paul Queary

Water surge from Rainier glacier rushes down Nisqually River

LONGMIRE, Wash. (AP) -- Popular trails remained closed Thursday as geologists monitored an area where melting glacier water stripped debris from a flank of Mount Rainier.

A series of debris flows was triggered by unusually hot weather that caused the Kautz Glacier to pour water from its left side into a neighboring glacier's valley, saturating loose glacial dirt and rock.

The sodden debris began to break loose Tuesday evening, sending millions of pounds of rock and mud down Van Trump Creek, and briefly closing the road to Paradise within Mount Rainier National Park.

"It looks like chunky concrete moving downstream -- boulders the size of that porch," said Steve Bailey, director of the Pierce County Department of Emergency Management, indicating a porch on a park visitor's center at Longmire.

No one was hurt in either Tuesday night's large debris flow or two smaller events around noon Wednesday. Rangers closed trails along the flow's path after U.S. Geological Survey scientists spotted the fresh flows Wednesday.

Chief Ranger Jill Hawk had her staff round up hikers who had gone into the area to see the damage from Tuesday night. Several hikers were in the area of Comet Falls on Van Trump Creek -- one of the most popular hikes in the park -- when Wednesday's flows came crashing through.

"It was a very exciting time for them -- a lot of debris, dust, loud noise," Hawk said.

Carolyn Driedger, scientist at the Cascades Volcano Observatory in Vancouver, classified the event as a debris flow, something smaller than a lahar, a rush of water and debris that can topple forests and travel up to 60 mph.

Mount Rainier, a 14,410-foot active volcano, has experienced dozens of similar debris flows in recent years, especially on the South Tahoma Glacier, where a series of flows between 1967 and the early 1990s forced the closure of the park's western road.

"This mountain is going through lots of changes," Driedger said. "The slope is ever changing."

The trail system along Van Trump Creek will remain closed at least as long as hot weather keeps melt water flowing from the glaciers, Hawk said.

Park officials and USGS scientists agreed that the dangerous part of the flow probably didn't reach Christine Falls, where Van Trump Creek crosses the park highway before it flows into the Nisqually River. However, fine glacial dust left over from Tuesday night's flow was splattered dozens of feet high on trees and rocks there.

Farther upstream, rolling boulders, fragments of rock and high water would have been more dangerous. But park officials said no one was registered to camp in that area Tuesday night.

Hundreds of tourists flocked to Christine Falls. Some drew messages in the powder-fine glacial dust the flood left on the rocks.

"Makes you feel really small," said Tom Wild, of Allentown, Pa. "Usually we see the mountain and it's kind of still. We're the active ones. Last night we were still and it was active."

Officials have been particularly sensitive to potential eruptions of Mount Rainier after a computer simulation conducted in May showed the region isn't prepared for one. The simulation indicated as many as 5,000 people could be killed in an eruption.

An electronic sensor on the mountain, designed to warn of impending eruptions or mud flows, was tripped Tuesday night, apparently by the rushing water and debris. It sounded an alarm at the Pierce County dispatch center, said Sheriff Paul Pastor.

The Nisqually River flows west of the mountain, emptying into south Puget Sound between Tacoma and Olympia.

Fifty-seven people died when Mount St. Helens, south of Rainier in Washington's Cascade Range, erupted on May 18, 1980.

[Redeye]

For whatever it's worth, while scanning for other anomalous stuff, on CyberspaceOrbit I found a link to the below under the hotlink <a href="http://www.cyberspaceorbit.com/rainier_comments.html">Notes</a>:


<i>Subj: Warning For Valdez Glacier Stream
Date: 8/15/01 9:17:26 AM Pacific Daylight Time

http://216.147.19.49/phenomena/messages/8234.html

hmmmm...seems to be alot of heating up on the glaciers lately! One thing that really bothers me...we happened to be watching King 5 News when the Mt. Rainier story broke...I distinctly heard (and so did my husband and mother-in-law and some others on the web) them interview a geologist who said that the volcano had been given a 'code 2' which meant an eruption within either 30-90 days or 60-90 days (I forget which). They never went back to him and none of the other local news stations made mention of it - he was on once and that was it! I'd love to find out who he was...unfortunately, I was at the computer and was not looking at the tv - just listening to it. Oh well...
</i>
... continues ...

I've not seen any similiar warning for Ranier posted anywhere I've scanned.

Nonetheless, the anomalies noted by, e.g., Pliney, seem well worth paying attention to.

R

[Cascadians]

Yep, Redeye, several ppl at Syzygy's site heard that too.

We found this pic on kgw:

<IMG SRC="http://www.kgw.com/img/mudflow2_xx.jpg">

and then this!

http://www.FreeRepublic.com/forum/a3b7b6e1f6ba0.htm
*** FLOOD ALERT! *** Mt. Hood and surrouding areas (Oregon)

Nice to bump into some old-timers on dat thread!

[Taz]

Charlotte King 8/16

****During the news tonight ( getting the tingling again 11:52 PM ) as I am typing
this.. anyway they said that Mt Hood has a major shrinking of the snow field
near the glacier and that they expect as soon as we get the heavy rains, there
can and will be a major slide down the face of Mt Hood.) So if you are
going to
be going to Mt Hood any time soon after the winter weather starts, be aware
the
ground under your feet is not solid )***

[Cuddluppy]

i guess from what i have seen that these outbursts are part of a natural cycle and due to very dry and hot conditions (causing the glacier to melt back). it doesn't seem like it is an indication of an impending volcanic eruption?

i recently saw a story on mt. ararat and during those hot and dry years the glacier will recede enough to see and be able to get to noah's ark.

[pliny the younger]

the issue about this event being caused by dry and hot weather is, I believe, spurious.

The area around the mountain has NOT been particularly hot. It is true that we are having a drought, but it is not due to heat particularly, but rather the lack of rain.

The lack of rain, has NOT been due to the lack of cloud cover as we are 10 cloudy days ahead of average for this time of year. But, even though clouds (mostly chemtrails, likely), no precip to speak of.


As to the heat, yes, we have been setting heat records recently, BUT, this is misleading as we have had cool nights, cloud cover until past noon, and then sun when the clouds burn off around 1 or so. Then it gets bloody hot quick, but only until evening then we cool off again.

And I checked with NOAA stats and our cloud covers have been above the height (14thousand feet) of the mountain as a rule except for last 6 days. So likely not a situation where sun on the glacier but we can't see it for low cloud cover.

AND the Kautz Glacier where the flow started is a very low glacier with its entire extent below 10thousand feet.

So I am personally not willing to accept the idea yet that this was weather related.

There is also the issue of the cracks that are appearing on the glaciers all around the top of the mountain. These cracks are not usual in that many are wider at the bottom than at the top.....! I know directly from someone who fell into one. She had much more room below her feet than at shoulder level. I will be going to look myself this weekend unless work intrudes.


So, all in all, yet another anomoly to chew on.

And just to muddy the mix, there are the strange booms which we know and have been told are the 'new' artillery pieces at ft lewis (very believable) but these impacts are so strong as to shake the ground and the windows. So surely would also shake Mt Rainier....

Then there are also the army convoys of very long trucks with the poor bastard who sits in the little cage at the back driving the read wheels. There have been several of these convoys get off the freeway in lacey and take college street out to yelm highway and then to the back side of ft lewis. They are so long that they cannot, apparently, take the regular through base access roads to their destination. And they are carrying hugely long rods and hollow tubes that are metallic but really defy description beyond that. All lashed down in bundles about 10 to 20 feet thick and maybe 70 feet long. They stick off the back of the trucks about 12 feet.

I have been stopped by two such convoys and a woman I know who lives in apts on college street has seen 5 others prior to my two...so go figure.

Anyway, strange days indeed up here in puget sound.

[BB]

August 14, 2001

Watch this story in RealVideo.

'Glacial outburst' turns out to be normal natural process


NISQUALLY - by KOMO-TV News, Seattle

PIERCE COUNTY - First it was a lahar.

Then it wasn't.

Then it was a glacial outburst.

Wrong again.

Geologists Wednesday pinpointed the source of a gush of water from a
Mount Rainier glacier that sent rocks and trees rushing into the Nisqually
River.

They said it was a plain old debris buildup that gave way, not anything
geological, seismological, volcanic or otherwise extraordinary.

No Injuries, Damage
No injuries or serious damage was reported from the Tuesday night event,
but it sent emergency officials scrambling to gauge the severity of the event
at the 14,410-foot mountain. The fear was that a lahar, a potentially deadly
flow of mud and debris, might be coming down the river.

Mount Rainier is an active volcano, and its glaciers feed rivers that run
through some of the most populous regions of the state.

"Reports are still coming in, but we're lucky at this point," said Jody
Woodcock, spokeswoman for Pierce County Emergency Management.
"This isn't the big one we've been practicing for."

Surge Came Down
The surge of water sent water and debris rushing into the Nisqually and its
tributaries, and left some mud and rock on a park road, said Maria Gillett,
spokeswoman for Mount Rainier National Park. Despite initial concerns, it
had little effect downstream, where the Nisqually showed no indication that
it would overflow its banks.

Nevertheless, the rising water scared campers at several locations within
the park, which receives more than 1.2 million visitors a year. The road to
Paradise, where the park's main visitor center and hotel are located, was
closed briefly as a precaution, but all facilities were open Wednesday
morning, Gillett said.

Some campers left, but no evacuations were ordered, she said.

Mud and debris was left on the road to Paradise near Christine Falls, just
above where Van Trump Creek enters the Nisqually River, but the mess was
cleared by dawn Wednesday, said park spokeswoman Alisa Lynch.

A helicopter with geologists from the U.S. Geological Survey plus park and
Pierce County officials flew Wednesday by the glaciers high on the
mountain's southern flank to look for melting, she said.

Better Safe Than Sorry People in nearby communities were asked to stay
away from the river, just in case. Tuesday night, Gillett and several of her
neighbors in Ashford, site of the park's headquarters just outside the park's
southwest entrance, took survival supplies and left their homes.

"I grabbed my pack, grabbed a cell phone and a park radio, and went and
grabbed an elderly neighbor who I wasn't sure would know what was going
on," Gillett said. "We drove up what's basically a logging road and ran into
several of my neighbors up there."

The rushing water apparently came from the Van Trump or Kautz glacier on
the volcano's south side, officials said.

Officials have been particularly sensitive to potential eruptions of Mount
Rainier following a recent computer simulation that showed the region isn't
prepared for one. The simulation, done in May with the help of the federal
government, showed that as many as 5,000 people could be killed in an
eruption.

An electronic sensor on the mountain, designed to warn of impending
eruptions or mud flows, was tripped Tuesday night, apparently by the
rushing water and debris. It sounded an alarm at the Pierce County dispatch
center, said Sheriff Paul Pastor.

Orting Police Chief Ron Emmons said no siren was sounded in the town, as
might have happened if the flow had been into the Carbon or Puyallup rivers.
Still, roads above Orting were closed.

"Everything here is fine," Emmons said Tuesday night. "Probably it was a
pretty good drill, but we don't like those kinds of things, at night especially."

Common Event On The Big Mountain
Glacial outbursts are among the most common types of events a volcano
like Mount Rainier can produce, said Bill Steele of the University of
Washington seismology center in Seattle.

"It's a hot summer, a dry year," Steele said. "The water builds up, gets
trapped under the glacier and then can burst forth suddenly, causing a flood
down the channel which can be quite dangerous if you're near the river."

The rising water level was noticed at about 10 p.m.

Pastor noted the water surge occurred in "a very isolated part of the county
-- a wilderness area."

Pierce County activated its emergency operations center and called out its
search and rescue personnel and swift water rescue teams, sheriff's
spokesman Ed Troyer said.

For More Information:
What's a Lahar? - volcanoes.usgs.gov/Products/Pglossary/lahar.html
Lahar Warning System -
volcanoes.usgs.gov/About/Highlights/RainierPilot/Pilot_highlight.html
Mt. Rainier Web site - www.nps.gov/mora/

[Onebyone]

Hey Pliny maybe they are starting a pipe line for melted glacier water to the Aliens who live deep below the mountain

Seriously though I agree there are to many weird things that just do not fit.

[Deb Mc]

Pliny,

What are the mountaineering guides saying about the conditions? Doesn't REI host summiting expeditions?

[BB]

According to the article I posted, there is nothing to be concerned about on Mt.Ranier. That is the end of the story is it not?

Not for sure if Mt. Rainier is code 2. I live in Redmond, WA. I just found that on KATU Channel 2 news in Oregon that Mt. Hood is basically having the exact same symptoms. Glacier debris flow. The news here in WA said it was due to unusually warm weather which I don't think is true. Coworkers agree that the weather hasn't been that warm, we've definitely had warmer summers. The ring of fire may be getting ever more active.

[kanuck57]

Mount Rainier--14,409 feet.

Some climate info

There have been highs of 80-90s at surrounding areas-
Yakima- http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/currwx.pl?cccc=KYKM
Olympia- http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/currwx.pl?cccc=KOLM
Toledo- http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/currwx.pl?cccc=KTDO

Washington
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/wa/wa.html
=========

As to the air temps at the glacial elevations-Go to the "Soundings from MAPS/RUC Analyses/Forecasts site" below and type in the location airport ids for the airtemps at the different elevations-
Yakima--KYKM
Olympia--KOLM
Toledo-- KTDO

Plot sounding from MAPS/RUC Analyses/Forecasts:
http://www-frd.fsl.noaa.gov/mab/soundings/

As of 23:00 UTC, the airtemps at 14000 feet have been 32F, 10,000 feet is 50F and warmer as you go to lower elevations.

My family and I live in Auburn WA. The valley where this and a few other towns reside is carved out from an old mud flow of previous eruptions. The valley is about 300' deep and about a mile wide.

We are moving. I do not want to be around when this puppy pops it's cork.

[NWPhotog]

Many theories have been coming forth including the following -
The "warmer", drier weather has caused less snow on the mountain. Then when we do get the summer rains, the looser, newer snow isnt there to absorb the rain. More liquid - more melt - a greater chance of the Lahar conditions.

I haven't read all the postings here, so if this is a repeat - sorry. (besides its my thread )

Wow, this thread has over 1300 views and a two pager to boot. I don't think my ad trojan post had this much play - thanks all. Quite a community!

[Taz]

Charlotte King's 8/17

Have added this when I completed the email for today ( 16th ) I have been
really disorintated and nauseaous with intense vertigo/headache for the
last 30
minutes or so. This could be closer to home, ie, Oregon, Washington and or
California would be my guess.. it feels volcanic ( vertigo ) and that leads me
to be more concerned about Rainier. I was talking to someone in Washington
tonight and felt fairly good till then, the ones of you who know me, know I
respond to areas, even via the phone, and I have been getting sicker and and
feeling worse since I was exposed to the energy/EMF via the phone to
Washington. I hope I am wrong, but if I am correct the people in Washington
have far more to be concerned about than some water from Mt Rainier.

This is far to similar to what St Helens started out like and it can end any
time as far as I am concerned.
As one of my friends and a sensitive pointed out to me today.. Charlotte I
feel
so sorry for you, I feel so sorry for me. We are not in the shape we were in
1980 and a lot older )

There is always the chance this is a "flu" but I really doubt it.

Taking my Meclizine and Peppermint Tea ( Sweet ) and Hot. And Lecithin.
Will update as necessary.

Charlotte

[NWPhotog]

As was the case on Aug. 15th
http://spike.geophys.washington.edu/...001081500.html
these "glacial outbursts" sem to really affect the Camp Muir station, not the other two LON and FMW. A lot of noise for the duration of the event (IMHO - since i havent seen any "official" corredation of this)
I noticed that on last nights printings, starting at about 3:00am
http://spike.geophys.washington.edu/...001081700.html
the noise returned and was not as intense as b4 but sems to have been ongoing:
http://spike.geophys.washington.edu/...001081712.html

Maybe we are doing another "slow" earthquake like last year, where we just move a little at a time?
I believe that this was the source of the discovery that the gps markers were off.

I still wonder if this relates to the cracks occuring on other glaciers


Robert

[mutter]

LookieLou,

well, can`t say i blame ya for wanting to move now. would be hard to sleep not knowing when that big guy was gonna blow.

but such a beautiful area of the country, that is a shame.

[btw: Welcome! don`t think i`ve had the pleasure of seeing your posts before.... ]

[NWPhotog]

I think it is quite interesting the amount of noise that is showing up on the Muir station since the 15th


http://spike.geophys.washington.edu/...001081800.html

obert

[kanuck57]

Current Updates for US and Russian Volcanoes:
http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/update.html

Cascade Range Volcanoes — Update from the Cascades Volcano Observatory


Submitted at 5:30 PDT, August 15, 2001

Hot weather makes for high runoff from Rainier glaciers

Hot weather in the Pacific Northwest has resulted in increased melting of glaciers around Mount Rainier, producing more melt water than usual. Around 9pm yesterday evening (14 August), Mount Rainier National Park rangers reported a flood event near Christine Falls in lower Van Trump Creek within the park. Observations today by Mount Rainier National Park rangers and USGS scientists indicate that meltwater from Kautz Glacier had saturated loose glacial debris in the upper Van Trump Creek drainage area. Portions of this saturated material slumped last night, resulting in small debris flows that moved down Van Trump Creek to the Nisqually River. Minor rise in the Nisqually River ensued for several hours. Continued slumping of the loose saturated material throughout today (15 August) has caused additional minor debris flows down the creek. It is expected that more small events like those of the past few days will occur in the the Van Trump Creek drainage as long as the hot weather lasts.

Volcanoes in the Cascade Range are all at normal levels of background seismicity. These include Mount Baker, Glacier Peak, Mount Rainier, Mount
Adams, and Mount St. Helens in Washington State; Mount Hood, Mount Jefferson, Three Sisters, Newberry, and Crater Lake, in Oregon; and Medicine Lake, Mount Shasta, and Lassen Peak in northern California.

Information about the recent detection of a slight uplift of a broad area west of South Sister volcano can be found in the update of May 8, 2001.

USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network at the University of Washington, and the USGS Northern California
Seismic Network and Volcano Hazards Team in Menlo Park, California, monitor the major volcanoes in the Cascade Range of northern California, Oregon,
and Washington.
=================

Ground Uplift Near South Sister Volcano, Central Oregon Cascade Range-- Radar Interferogram:

http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/...t_may2001.html