ECON Why the dramatic drop in Gold? Help me understand the dynamics.

[spinnaker]

What is happening within the gold market that would cause the price drop like this?

Please help me understand the dynamics.

Is this just profit taking or is something else in play?


Thanks.

[Double_A]

Originally Posted by spinnaker

What is happening within the gold market that would cause the price drop like this? Please help me understand the dynamics.

Thanks.

Woa!

Hard to say right now. The market pros will tell us in the morning.

But if somebody sold alot to take profit. If the market gobbles it all up and price come back up to where it left off that will be scary!

ETA: Wait that was a $47 dollar drop when I first read this, Now it is only down $41

[spinnaker]

I recently took a rather large () position in the metal. This is all new to me. I fully understand the overall ebb and flow, but this is the first large drop so I am a little nervous.

I should probably stop hitting the Kitco refresh button and let things take their course.

I know this as a right move, but........ DAMN.

[Double_A]

Originally Posted by spinnaker

I recently took a rather large () position in the metal. This is all new to me. I fully understand the overall ebb and flow, but this is the first large drop so I am a little nervous.

I should probably stop hitting the Kitco refresh button and let things take their course.

I know this as a right move, but........ DAMN.

Well I will say this, a couple of years ago the Bot's people said as things got closer we would have wild swings in the price of gold maybe a one hundred dollar swings in a single day.

[China Connection]

The big boys are playing with the little guys and cleaning them out. Would you like to be playing futures at the moment. When you loose who gets your money?

[spinnaker]

Originally Posted by Double_A

Well I will say this, a couple of years ago the Bot's people said as things got closer we would have wild swings in the price of gold maybe a one hundred dollar swings in a single day.

I can imagine the other board members who have been at this for years that are laughing at me right now saying; "What a Newb! Welcome to the real world."

[Great Northwet]

No one is(or should) laugh at anyone who invests in volatile commodities. This is a rough market for all kinds of things.

My humble opinion is that the recent action in Dubai is sending global investors screaming into $$'s because it is now possible that Dubai's currency could very possibly suffer a horrible death in the very near future. The obvious result is that a stronger dollar will suppress gold/silver prices in the short term.

I hope that helps some.

-great

[BlueNewton]

Spinnaker, at some point, we have ALL done it. I assume you didn't buy the gold for speculative purposes anyway. So, it doesn't matter what happens to the price short term. Stop watching it. You will have it after the rinse cycle is finished a few years on. It is your wealth preservation strategy.

Liquidity is drying up big time. Cash is moving back into the "King" position for a while, just as it did last Fall. Non-cash assets will continue to fall should this cash squeeze take hold. Derivatives are mainly in USD. Should they begin the BIG unwind, USD will be in great demand.

[etc]

The Federal Reserve Note (Token) will get a bit stronger before it's final collapse.

You had XX ounces of (Gold/Silver) before and you still have XX ounces after...

[G-Man]

it is a speculative bubble -

currently investors must sell of their gold holdings to cover their debts. (ie margin call) so, everyone is selling and the price drops -

[changed]

Everyone is digging out their old gold jewelry and selling it.

[G-Man]

oday 07:26 AM
changed Everyone is digging out their old gold jewelry and selling it.

Yeah - for C A S H!....

Look out for a mad dash for cash!!!!

[Old Gray Mare]

Over Thanks Giving dinner a DGI guest was expounding in length on the Cash for Gold parties and where in the area to trade in old jewelry for cash. I tried not to make a scene and had the worst case of indigestion last night. Cash for gold is all over my area they even set up at a school related fuction, it may have been a fund rasier.

[ainitfunny]

Actually, this dip in gold prices is only temporary. What has happened is that the normal suppliers of gold are suddenly getting access to GOLD THAT MUST BE SOLD TO PREVENT DOMINO COLLAPSE OF OTHER INVESTORS, BANKS AND INSTITUTIONS THAT WERE HEAVILY TIED TO DUBAI'S SUCCESS AND WORTH.

Once that gold is liquidated to raise cash, the gold price will go back to soaring. In fact, I think the world demand for gold is high enough that the dip in gold price will be extremely short lived.

I am fairly convinced that DUBAI was "allowed to fail" simply to produce this sudden supply of gold to the market to ease the pressure and price climb as well as help facilitate a few VIPS to "CHURN GOLD, LIKE THEY DO STOCK" for "in and out" big investors to make obscenely large fortunes on gold trades in a period of days.

[Hfcomms]

Everyone who is nervous about gold should digest Jim Sinclair's website www.jsmineset.com and then relax. Gold and silver is not an investment....it's preservation of wealth. An ounce of gold would buy a top of the line suit or a cow in the 1920's and it will do the same today. The pump pushers are manipulating the markets to the extreme and you can't trust the daily swings. Once you buy the stuff if your timid then forget about checking the prices all the time. Your gold is priced in dollars and as we know the 'value' of the dollar is all over the place due to the manipulations. Therfore the 'price' of gold is also going to be all over the place.

The fundamentals don't lie. Our paper dollar is almost worthless and were printing them like there is no tomorrow. The dollar isn't backed by anything anymore except by the 'full faith and credit' which is a joke. In addition to all of this gold and silver production worldwide is decreasing rapidly as very little new sources have come on line since it takes many years to bring a gold or silver mine online. This is the perfect storm coming up for metals. Gold and silver are way underpriced. In the 80's gold hit over $800 an ounce and priced in today's dollars that would be well over $2,000 an ounce. Any gold or silver purchased now will seem cheap in comparision to where this is all going.

[G-Man]

China is now the largest producer of gold - I have posted several threads today on this topic....

just connect the dots.....

[ainitfunny]

Friday, November 27, 2009
Tocom Suspends Night Session Gold Futures; System Problems
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--The Tokyo Commodity Exchange Friday suspended trading in gold futures during the night session due to problems in the system, a bourse official said.
read full article..

[G-Man]

ECON Why the dramatic drop in Gold? Help me understand the dynamics.

The Muhammads got bank loans to the tune of billions of dollars, now they have defaulted on them and or now selling off their gold plated toilets to avoid debtors prison, this puts more "gold" in the market and prices go down.....


hope this helps.....

[G-Man]

spinnaker btw you mentioned on another thread that you had invested your elderly mothers money in a lot of PM's - you may want to rethink that......

[shane]

I think everybody will be amazed at how quickly gold resumes its record
breaking climb after this drop, and availability declines and premiums rise.

Nothing has changed, the dollar is still going to go down, gold & silver up.

IMO, this is a great, though very brief, buying opportunity, and I would not
wait around too long to pull the trigger if wanting more gold & silver cheap.

While the weak hands get scared and shaken out of their positions, the
smart money is there eagerly taking it cheap and adding to their positions.

Too bad most can't see that and will soon regret, again, not having bought
any when it was cheaper, as it again goes onto setting new all-time highs.

We'll all see soon enough.

Got God, Grub, Guns & Gold?
Panic Early, Beat the Rush!

- Shane

[Strut]

Howdy,

Thought this may help...

The price of Gold & Silver is not that much off where its been for the last couple of days when I change the kitco price to my local currency.

So the feeling I have is that its the swings in your US dollar that is affecting it the most. If I buy in my local currency I would have paid about the same the last 3 days (give or take depending on the day).

Also, I suspect there are some larger holders that have it in their long positions that are having to tap into it right now (margin calls, etc.). So that could be the selling. And then there are always the weak hands that sell the minute they can make a few bucks thinking they can buy low again (I know someone that did that at $13 on silver... they have not been able to get it lower than that since and have basically lost their long position).

Hope that helps.

[homepark]

I am gradually acquiring silver. At the moment, in small amounts and pieces, 1 to 10 oz bars. I want to have a bit of it on hand for wealth preservation and for spending money if TSHTF. I will not pay the premium for currency coins, but look at the spot prices, melt value. I am also sticking with the bigger producers of silver bars.

[ittybit]

The blow up of Dubai World has caused someone(s) over in the ME to have to raise a cart load of cash to pay someone. They sold a profitable position (gold), in order to pay. Like taking grandma's jewelry to the hock shop because you gotta make that balloon payment.

Gold buyers are sopping that sale up, and the price is rebounding modestly. Its a blip, but expect more of this if other financials take a major hit. That is way the equities are dropping, they gotta raise cash. However in stocks this could be the return to "rational valuations" (ie - retunr to crash mode).

[pixmo]

Gold tumbles as Dubai triggers stampede to dollars

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold prices tumbled nearly 5 percent to a one-week low below $1,140 an ounce on Friday as investors fearing debt default in Dubai sought safety in dollars and cash.

Other precious metals also slipped. Silver hit a two-week low of $17.66 an ounce, while platinum and palladium touched one-week lows of $1,418.50 and $351 an ounce respectively.

Spot gold briefly hit a low of $1,136.80 a troy ounce, the lowest since November 16 and was bid at $1,153.50 an ounce at 1429 GMT from $1,192.60 on Thursday, when the precious metal hit $1,194.90 -- a record high.

"Dubai has been the catalyst for an event that was overdue both in gold and forex," said Simon Weeks, director of precious metals at Bank of Nova Scotia. "But now that the trend has been reversed think it will continue for a while longer," he said.

"Longer term, gold will come back that much stronger and no doubt will make new highs but for now we come lower," Weeks said, adding $1,125-1,130 an ounce was a support level.

Dubai said on Wednesday two flagship firms planned to delay repaying billions of dollars in debt. State-backed Dubai World has $59 billion of liabilities -- a big chunk of the emirate's total debt of $80 billion.

That has raised the spectre of default and triggered a sell-off of risky assets such as commodities and stocks.

For graphic on risk assets click on http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/119/GLB_RSKA1109.gif

Gold, a traditional safe haven, has also been sold because the higher dollar makes the precious metal more expensive for holders of other currencies. (USD/)

"The events in Dubai highlight the elevated level of sovereign risk heading into next year, the potential pockets of dollar strength that this can deliver," Deutsche Bank said in a research note.

Many investors will also be selling gold, up more than 30 percent this year, to pay for losses elsewhere.

"Margin calls might be playing a part here, particularly for Middle Eastern investors," said David Thurtell, analyst at Citi.

CENTRAL BANKS BUOY

But analysts said expectations of gold purchases by central banks in emerging markets will help buoy prices.

Earlier this week the International Monetary Fund said it had sold 10 tons of gold to the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, adding the sale was part of the 403.3 tons approved by its executive board in September.

The IMF has already sold 202 tons to the Reserve Bank of India and the Bank of Mauritius.

"The central bank story is the one that has driven gold higher not just the dollar story," said Daniel Major, a metals analyst at RBS Global Banking & Markets.

Earlier this week the IMF declined to comment on a newspaper report which suggested India could buy more gold from the fund.

Also driving gold are purchases by investors looking for a hedge against inflation that could be triggered by the vast amounts of money being pumped into the global economy by central banks and governments around the world.

That can be seen in the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, holding 1,127.860 tons as of November 25 and within touching distance of the record 1,134.03 tons seen on June 1. (GOL/SPDR)

Spot silver was at $17.90 an ounce from $18.61 late in New York on Thursday, platinum at $1,425.50 an ounce from $1,452 and palladium at $359 an ounce from $368.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-t....html?x=0&.v=3

[CelticRose]

The markets and news out of Dubai, are likely to give more meaning to this 'Black Friday' ............

[Double_A]

Well looks like the market is bouncing up as the price is down only $14 now.

[gdpetti]

ANd rising like the rest of the markets... as the dollar push looses steam... as the 'play' winds down... this is typical trader manipulation or 'push'... what is occurring on a much larger scale worldwide... you pump it up, dump it and buy back in cheap and do it all over again and again and again.

We might have already seen the end of the 'Santa or Xmas' rally ... early this year as the Xmas season isn't expected to be anything but flat at best... so they pumped it early for bonuses... could they go to 11000 DOw? Sure but it would be fast up and down most likely... as instability continues everywhere.

Look at the gold chart and the support or moving averages.... the trend remains intact, this is just a traders' play, nothing more... remember they control the whole worldwide market in everything... they can do what they what with any of them short term... the gold rise is due to the public losing confidence in this con game.. as ever more stories come out exposing things for what they are... as Israel goes totally pyscho as is their historical way... remember who runs the show... follow the big boys... the path of least resistance is up... the gold jump the other day had to be retested... the gap closed... as it was today... ANd you will notice that the moves are getting bigger, thus the range being extended... like a child with growing spurts...for gold it is up, for the stock markets, down. fair use http://www.monex.com/prods/gold_chart.html

Check out inflation adjusted charts as a guide of what's ahead in this con game as it comes to a close. fair use http://home.earthlink.net/~intellige...om-dj-infl.htm

[G-Man]

Today, 02:09 AM
spinnaker
Blue Water Cruiser
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Gone on a long vacation.
Posts: 325

Need ideas for a 'Family Book of Rules' once SHTF

Last edited by spinnaker; Today at 10:17 AM.

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=349241


hope you don't decide to do that with this thread too......

[BlueNewton]

It is, of course, possible, that this event will not start the next leg down and that the damage can be spun and controlled a while longer and the insanity will run another month or 2. But when the next leg down happens, not if, it will suck liquidity out of the global markets like a collosal vacuum cleaner.

[Jonas Parker]

With thanks to the folks at zerohedge.com...

Manipulation? What manipulation?

[Southside]

Originally Posted by spinnaker

I recently took a rather large () position in the metal. This is all new to me. I fully understand the overall ebb and flow, but this is the first large drop so I am a little nervous.

I should probably stop hitting the Kitco refresh button and let things take their course.

I know this as a right move, but........ DAMN.

I have been in the market since 1999. This is not even a SMALL pullback.
If you have no stomach for volatility, you shouldn't watch it. Precious metals are for insurance, and should be looked at that way. Then when the BIG pullbacks come, you don't feel so bad.

Southside

[dragonslayer2001]

you are STILL looking at a manipulated PAPER/DIGITAL market, and there are still a lot of paper and digits in the world markets.



If you don't have the physical gold in your pocket, you are taking huge risks with 'force majeur' when the real bust comes.



There have been plenty of storys of gold shortages, mints not minting, and large groups TRYING to take possesion of PHYSICAL and not being able too.


Why? Because it is a fraudulent market. Lots of money, lots of lies, much less physical available than the promises to deliver.


Understand this. If you don't have it in hand, you DON'T have gold. You got a paper promise from a stranger in a market full of paper.

[G-Man]

Today 01:47 PM
dragonslayer2001
......
you are STILL looking at a manipulated PAPER/DIGITAL market, and there are still a lot of paper and digits in the world markets.



If you don't have the physical gold in your pocket, you are taking huge risks with 'force majeur' when the real bust comes.



There have been plenty of storys of gold shortages, mints not minting, and large groups TRYING to take possesion of PHYSICAL and not being able too.


Why? Because it is a fraudulent market. Lots of money, lots of lies, much less physical available than the promises to deliver.


Understand this. If you don't have it in hand, you DON'T have gold. You got a paper promise from a stranger in a market full of paper.

AND-D-D-D-d=D
if you are buyng it on your credit cards or getting a loan for it

[shane]

Originally Posted by dragonslayer2001

Understand this. If you don't have it in hand, you DON'T have gold. You got a paper promise from a stranger in a market full of paper.

No wiser words, especially so for gold, bought as the safe-haven alternative to all
paper, you must take possession of the physical or you are not protecting yourself.

Otherwise, you might as well simply prep by owning futures on food, guns and
ammo, rather than really buy some and having them at home, close to hand.

Got God, Grub, Guns & Gold?
Panic Early, Beat the Rush!

- Shane

[shane]

Jim Sinclair at www.jsmineset.com just announced...

Today’s attack on gold and buying of the dollar was like a recent
polar bear attack on a tourist in Churchill, Canada’s far north...

Shocking photo's below, beware...









Got God, Grub, Guns & Gold?
Panic Early, Beat the Rush!

- Shane

[Hansa44]

I keep remembering Black Gold.(oil) Speculators sent it to $150 a barrel. Then it dropped back to $40. I believe it's about $70 now.

I talked to my friends yesterday who bought gold Kruggerands in the 70's for about $250. a piece. They love what's happening now but said they are not holding their breath. Gold has a tendency to take huge jumps, but also to take huge fall backs. They've been in this game for approx. 35 years, but with them, it's definitely a game and won't cause a hardship if it drops to zero.

And no. They don't have a lot of money. Just middle class folks.

[notred]

Anyone nervous over this little blip in gold today...should probably not own much gold.

[jazzy]

i started buying a bit of gold and silver about 13-14 yrs back, a little bit here and there when i could afford to squeeze a few bucks from the bdiget (and yes, i did some prepping first, BUT i wanted to diversify my preps). ive been all thru the 'OMG, look how much it has risen!" and "OMG, look how much it has dropped!"

i used to worry about it, i used to check very day, elated when it rose, worried when it dropped.

but you know----ive never been sorry i ever bought. i remember when it passed $500, i told myself, well, what i got is what i got cause i cant afford to buy at that price, and when it dropped, i said, OH NOOOO. when it passed $700 and retreated, i said the same thing, and the same thing when it passed $900. now its well over $1100, and you know what? i soooo wish i bought more at $700 or $800 or $900 even. 1/10 oz, 1/4 oz, anything in smaller increments and i wish i didnt keep thinking of the 1 oz price and let it stop me, cause if i did, id be in a better position now. and the reverse, i worried every time it dropped --saying, oh, NOOOO, did i make a mistake doing this, did i waste my little dollars i used to buy some PMs?

same with silver. i remember thinking, OMG, its $5, OMG, its $8, its $7, its $10, OMG, its (whatever).......and thinking i cant afford that price.

see, i let the numbers get in the way and intimidate me. when the truth is no matter if it goes up or down, $5-$10-$20 a day, LONG TERM, it is THE smartest thing to do for down the road. id have to use some for important reasons, and it helped alot.

when i stopped worrying about the day by day, moment by moment price and only looked long term, it saved my sanity and i stopped worrying.

its kinda like trying to lose weight--stay with me on this----if i start a diet and weigh myself every day---ill get results that dont always make me feel good, i can weigh 150 one morning, stay on the diet all day, weigh myself the next morning hoping to see some wonderful change, but find i weigh 151, get depressed and discouraged, stay on the diet that day, get up and weigh myself the very next morning and find i now weigh 150.5, get discouraged, sneak some nutter butters, go back on the diet, weigh myself the next day and see im back to 150....see? i end up worrying and doubting and feeling bad and putting myself on this mental rollercoaster ride because of the numbers.

if i stay on course and just weight myself once a week or once a month, i eliminate the mental ups and downs worrying about numbers and can measure the results better. (kinda the same with PMs--but we want them to go up)

you just have to look at it long term and not worry about the ups and downs. long term, it has really helped me, AND i know, it will help us tremendously further down the road. im not good with charts and statistics and all the economic mumbo jumbo, but im real good with history. history tells me loud and clear, getting some kind of PMs is a smart thing, whether its junk silver, .999 silver or increments of gold, or buying rolls of nickles.

i dont know exactly how it will play out, but history tells me owning some bits of PMs will help us financially thru the difficult times that are staring us in the face right now.

well, thats what i think.

jazzy

[mbabulldog]

sheesh guys, relax...

Look at how far gold/silver has come in 90 days! Dubai is selling anything of any value to try and not default on its debt. That, coupled with the WIDELY anticipated short squeeze, and you inevitably will have days like today.

NOTHING has changed for the better. If anything, I'm willing to bet that on Monday this Dubai-thing acclerates the move into safe-haven investments such as gold, silver, etc.

Get used to days with swings with $50- $100 each way.

[Floratrek]

Benjamin Fulford had ALOT to say about this on Tue. 11/24!!!