ECON DOT? Personal observation on Christmas inventory at retailers this year

[Heliobas Disciple]

Every year around November, our local wallyworld has half of its side parking lot filled with trailers of overflow inventory they want on hand through the Christmas season - this year there are none, nada, zip. It's eerie.

I walked into Best Buy on Tuesday and in past years the week of Black Friday you could see boxes of inventory they were waiting to put out Wed. night - this year not a box to be seen.

Someone I know works for another national big box chain and every year at Christmas they rent out storage space for their overflow of Christmas inventory - this year they didn't have to. I was told inventory sent was cut way back, so much so that they're already running out of some christmas stuff when last year they had some left over in December they got so much.

~~~~~~~~

I don't know if the retailers are finally getting smarter that they send out too much stuff that gets marked down 90% off after the holidays (or gets thrown out )- or if there's something deeper going on with shipping, credit lines, etc.

I'm guessing the latter, because for the last decade they never minded having extra inventory they might have to mark down.

HD

[Volleyball Granny]

No trailers here, either. Maybe they are getting wiser about supply and demand.

[mscoffee]

With much of our merchandise coming from china, I'm wondering if it a payment issue,
they might hesitant to trade goods for our falling dollar?

ETA, I'm not seeing the extra inventory, or the elaborate displays of the past.

[Troke]

"...or if there's something deeper going on with shipping, credit lines, etc..."

Simple explanation: Lack of credit.

2nd simple explanation; Cost of carrying inventory.

And that will suffice.

[changed]

yup

[Red Baron]

They could also be running a very tight and very short supply chain.

Why have 4 -6 weeks inventory at the stores?

Carry only one week and wait 'till actual sales occur and then only replenish what actually sold at that store.

Much easier to manage an inventory from a few distribution centers than have it spread out all over the country at a thousand retail locations.

I used to do that stuff for a living.

[ofuzzy1]

I noticed that the ads had most things discounted by 33-50% not just 10-15% for the big specials last year.

[Scott Mayland]

Originally Posted by ofuzzy1

I noticed that the ads had most things discounted by 33-50% not just 10-15% for the big specials last year.

I notice that the prices were marked up quite a bit in the past couple of weeks so the 33%-50% is really back to 10-15% off of the old price. It's all
a rip off to get people to spend. Where I work they will raise the price and
then run a sale but the new lower price is really the old regular price.

[eens]

Originally Posted by ofuzzy1

I noticed that the ads had most things discounted by 33-50% not just 10-15% for the big specials last year.

I haven't even looked at the ads. I used to love to do that...

[Warthog]

Originally Posted by Red Baron

They could also be running a very tight and very short supply chain.

Then again, the Grinch could have shown up and stolen it all.

[peachfuzz]

Originally Posted by Heliobas Disciple

I don't know if the retailers are finally getting smarter that they send out too much stuff that gets marked down 90% off after the holidays (or gets thrown out )- HD

On some talk show a lady was saying that retailors would be smarter this year with inventory and not have as much on hand. But they would try to out sale the other stores with what they DID have.

[thompson]

Originally Posted by mscoffee

With much of our merchandise coming from china, I'm wondering if it a payment issue,
they might hesitant to trade goods for our falling dollar?

ETA, I'm not seeing the extra inventory, or the elaborate displays of the past.

Me either. We were out last weekend and usually retailers have their "game on" by now. I was really surprised at the meager offering Sam's had for decorations and gifty type items; in years past they stocked a lot.

Even in Walmart, CVS and Walgreens, the usual display of cologne gift sets, traditional gift stuff like gloves, wallets, manicure sets, etc., was noticeably smaller than I've ever seen it.

[Red Baron]

Is it just me or has anybody else noticed there is no really new or cool stuff out there?

I can't think of one thing I gotta have or that I have to give somebody.

DD busted her phone again so I may upgrade the one she has now.

That's it ....

[timbo]

One of our local Lowes had inventory stacked to the ceiling. I don't know if they have overflow trailers sitting around, I've not paid attention to this in the past.

Maybe Lowes didn't get the memo on inventory.

[CelticRose]

Originally Posted by thompson

Me either. We were out last weekend and usually retailers have their "game on" by now. I was really surprised at the meager offering Sam's had for decorations and gifty type items; in years past they stocked a lot.

Even in Walmart, CVS and Walgreens, the usual display of cologne gift sets, traditional gift stuff like gloves, wallets, manicure sets, etc., was noticeably smaller than I've ever seen it.

We've noticed the same thing around here (west coast of FL).

Last year I was noting the change (IMO) of both the quality / amount / variety of both assorted holiday decorations and crafting items, in places such as Michaels / Sams / Lowes and such.

This year it's more obvious.

Always bought seasonal / crafting items, after the season because of getting things at maybe 75% off. This year the pickings are smaller, 50% off already and the overall amount and variety is even less, IMO.

We've contacted the three organizations that we support during the year and asked specifically what they could best use in the way of 'things' and will gather up what we can and include a small cash donation. It's a rough time for everyone and the need is greater than it has been in many years.

[NC Susan]

nope,
inventory is down.
what used to be whole shelves of stuff, is now a few feet of stuff
what used to be a gazillion boxes of stuff is now just a few boxes
even in grocery stores. There are fewer brand choices of the same thing. and more store labels available.

Expensive Christmas dresses at Pennies are more than available! They are going to take a beating on mark-downs to move that inventory later in the month.

Lots of room to walk around or push carts cuz clothes racks are GONE, removed to storage at places like Target and KMart.

I also did not notice the customary storage trailers in the parking lots at our four walmarts

but i did buy the ONLY electric mixer on the shelf for $16.00 Thanksgiving Eve at 9:30 pm. That was surprising for a SuperCenter to have sold out of mixers.

[spinnaker]

I am waiting for the news reports to start appearing that call the weak sales figures ' unexpected'.

[RentedMule]

All of a sudden maintaining lean inventory levels is a dot? How about just plain old good business practices. Lower inventory levels reduces costs and bolters cash flow.

With the economic uncertainty prevalent today, any company carrying excess inventory is doing damage to their business.

[Heliobas Disciple]

If it is just about being practical, why haven't they done it in years before now? Be it people, families or businesses, you don't really get down to tightening the belt until you realize the belt needs tightening. And these corporations are now tightening the belt when they never have before now. So yes, even if it's just being practical - it's a dot. It says - despite what you hear through the MSM to the contrary - everything is not rosy in retail. We don't expect large sales or we don't have the money to spread inventory around like we used to.

It also could be that the shippers out of China aren't accepting their letters of credit anymore and its cash up front to get a delivery. And they can't get a loan from anywhere to have that cash up front to buy the amount of inventory they used to buy. So they cut back.

Anyway you look at it - retail giants are not conducting business this Christmas season as usual. And when all the retailers change their business at the same time - it's a dot that says - things are not as they used to be.

As for Lowes, maybe they're doing better than everyone else or maybe they've moved what used to be too much for the store and in trailers out back to just what fits inside the store, which would be a cut for them as well

HD

[Rescuedog]

Originally Posted by RentedMule

All of a sudden maintaining lean inventory levels is a dot? How about just plain old good business practices. Lower inventory levels reduces costs and bolters cash flow.

With the economic uncertainty prevalent today, any company carrying excess inventory is doing damage to their business.

All of my inventory is on the floor. I try not to buy Christmas themed merchadise but to repackage what I have as a Christmas gift. I normally sell hand painted mugs with initials on them, I have them packaged now with fun hot chocolate mix, wrapped in cello with a bow as a Christmas gift.

RD

[eXe]

had sort of a similar experience today in RC willy.

We went in to buy a chair.. it was kind of a spur of the moment thing since we stayed in town last night and had thanksgiving dinner with family there. Had it all ready to go.. was ready to pay and got the run around.

When I asked where I pick it up in the store, the guy says "Oh we don't actually stock that item, you have to pick it up clear across town". THEN they would not even bother to call to see if the place clear across town even had any more in stock. I got the old "I can order it for you if its not in stock"

Well one sure way to totally KILL a sale is tell me "I can order it for you" so that was done.

The guy even admitted that they had not run out.. this was just how they were doing the black Friday deals this year.

No thanks.. if I pay for it I want to take it home.

[etc]

Something is definitely different this year. I shopped on Black Fri a few years ago and had to wait 1.5 hours to check out. That was at Staples.

This year, I was able to park right in front of the store. No line to check out, maybe 3 people.

BestBuy was busier but nothing like madness in 2007...

Baltic Dry Index, maybe this will explain things:

http://investmenttools.com/futures/b..._index.htm#bdi


FWIW...

[Matilda]

Originally Posted by Troke

Simple explanation: Lack of credit.

Yeah, I'm sure that Walmart can't get credit.

These companies weren't stupid in past years. In the past, they were just extremely confident that they would sell it all (or most of it). To me, this would speak volumes -- if there's anything to these anecdotal accounts.

I saw very little shopping traffic in my neck of the woods except at Walmart (which was packed as usual).

[Old Gray Mare]

Went to Wal-Mart. It was weird. Black Friday and the place was almost empty. No lines. No lines at all. I talked to the cashier, there was no one behind me and I was in an express lane. She said it had been like this since she was there and she said she was board out of her head. She was told it was very busy from 5am till 7am and then almost nothing. The shelves are well stocked, just not many people there buying. This is very odd for my area and this Wal-Mart even if it were not Black Friday.

[etc]

If this is not evidence of global economic meltdown, I don't know what is.

[KerryAnn]

Where we are, Wal-mart's parking lot was full around 11am. Everywhere else, we were never more than 2 deep in line, but the cashiers were all saying that sales were good today.

[Scotto]

Maybe they are just waiting for their "Tickle-me-Obama" dolls to stock.

The doll is sound-triggered to giggle hysterically when asked "Where's your birth certificate?"