OP-ED We Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet- Hanson

[Martin]

November 26, 2009, 0:00 a.m.

We Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet
If you think things have been rough so far, hang on.

By Victor Davis Hanson


When it comes to the problems facing this country, an old slogan comes to mind: “You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet.”

High unemployment, the recession, and a terrorist resurgence in Afghanistan are bad enough. But there are a number of problems on the horizon that could dwarf President Obama’s first-year trials.

Why the pessimism? In short, we are doing nothing to prepare for the crises to come.

A global recession has led to low oil prices. Yet in this window of opportunity, America has not decreased its foreign-oil dependence. We are not encouraging domestic exploration. And we are still ambivalent on nuclear power.

But as the world economy recovers, oil will probably surge back over $100 a barrel, increasing our oil-import tab by 25 percent or more. The Obama administration, though, mostly is obsessed with subsidizing relatively small amounts of wind and solar power. It likely won’t be long before angry motorists at the pump are demanding to know why we have not pushed for more development at home of still-plentiful natural-gas and oil fields.

Meanwhile, other economic bad news may be just around the corner. Today, interest rates on short-term Treasury bills still are less than 1 percent. But they, too, will climb as business picks up and worries over American inflation spread.

If we have to pay foreign lenders 5 percent to 7 percent interest on our debt, as in the past, the increased costs will gobble up additional billions from our annual budget. Yet sadly again, we are missing this rare opportunity of low interest to pay off cheaply the trillions that we already owe. Instead, we are borrowing even more!

The War on Terror is also heating up again. Fairly or not, the Fort Hood massacre sent the message that the United States is more worried about appearing politically correct in matters of diversity than about hunting down radical Islamists on its home soil. Those who seek to copy what happened at Fort Hood will be encouraged. And those charged with stopping them will be discouraged and confused.

Such uncertainty was reinforced by the attorney general’s decision to try the architects of 9/11 in federal courts in New York City. At best, the confessed mass-murderer Khalid Sheikh Mohammed will lecture the United States. At worst, one sympathetic juror could find the monster only 99 percent guilty, and therefore the court might fail to convict him of planning the murders of 3,000 innocent people.

After announcing a new strategy of counterinsurgency in March, and appointing Gen. Stanley McChrystal the new supreme commander in Afghanistan, it looks like Obama only now will commit more troops to Afghanistan. That will be a wise decision — but one coming three months after the generals’ request.

We were given an unexpected reprieve through the defeat of al-Qaeda in Iraq. We can now build on that victory by routing the Taliban in the way the Iraq surge stabilized democracy there.

Finally, there is an array of taxes on the horizon — increased federal income-tax rates; promised hikes in health-care surcharge taxes; and even rumors of value-added federal sales taxes. These increases are said to be aimed at the proverbial wealthy. But that could change — given that the top 5 percent of households already provide 60 percent of the nation’s income-tax revenue. And many are already paying 50 percent to 60 percent of their incomes in combined local, state, federal, and payroll taxes.

Just consider. The price of gas will soon likely increase. The cost of servicing our profligate borrowing will, too. One more terrorist attack like at Fort Hood, or nightly sermons from a grandstanding Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, or a new Taliban offensive, and the momentum could shift to radical Islam in its decades-long war against the United States. Next year’s tax hikes will be real and large — and no longer just this year’s idle talk.

As these storm clouds gather, Congress bickers on Saturday nights about borrowing even more money for health-care reform, yet another federal entitlement.

If you think things have been rough so far, hang on, ’cause you ain’t seen nothing yet.

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q...NlMTY5YWI4ZGQ=

[BlueNewton]

But as the world economy recovers, oil will probably surge back over $100 a barrel, increasing our oil-import tab by 25 percent or more.

I'm not sure who he thinks is going to be buying all that oil when the global economy is in the toilet and will be for years to come. Dubai??

The rest is correct.

[spinnaker]

Originally Posted by BlueNewton

I'm not sure who he thinks is going to be buying all that oil when the global economy is in the toilet and will be for years to come. Dubai??

The rest is correct.

Correctimundo.

As the Japanese would say:

Oir Grut

[blueridge]

Yup, 'L' shaped recessions are a real bear.

[China Connection]

We will soon see the start of WWIII so oil demand will be up.

The real enemy in the whole Western World is on home ground. I have watched as our Western governments have allowed the flood gates to open on migrants from the Middle East.

The favoritism for the Moslem religion and special allowances for it in Western society while at the same time putting down the Christian religion is also home grown.

You have suffered one attack being 911 by mainly Saudi Nationals so you have killed millions in Iraq and a lot in Afghanistan but none is Saudi Arabia. In fact they get favoritism.

Yeah, the Moslems are a going to attack the US! Bullshit! Try Russia. But what do you do in regard to Russia. For all intended purposes you keep quite. Your real enemy is ignored.

[Sleeping Cobra]

"Yet in this window of opportunity, America has not decreased its foreign-oil dependence"

With this Depression, i expect us to be using less oil/energy. Is there still oil tankers off shore loaded with oil that is just sitting off shore?

[etc]

> But as the world economy recovers

Why would it? The old paradigm of Keynesian economics of inflating the currency and extending credit is dead, the pendulum is swinging in the other direction.