CRISIS KOREA WATCH: 12/28/2010 - 1/4/2011

Starting the new thread the way that North Korea is starting their new year... it's all about Kim and Kim Jr..

From: http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk01500&num=7190

""The General Controls South Chosun"

By Im Jeong Jin
[2010-12-28 18:55 ]

The North Korean authorities have aggressively used the Yeonpyeong Island attack to promote Kim Jong Eun’s leadership. Regarding the South, the North’s propaganda says they’ve seized the initiative in inter-Korean relations, saying, “We just speak, and they move.”

A source from Chongjin, North Hamkyung Province, reported today that, “A cadre from the provincial committee of the Party came to the city in order to lead the annual evaluation meeting of the primary committee of the Party of an enterprise or factory in Chongjin in late November. He said, ‘The General (Kim Jong Il) completely controls the imperialists including the U.S.’”

According to the source, the cadre emphasized that, “You (members of the primary committee of the Party) don’t need to worry about the future, since South Chosun moves whenever we say something. In practice, the General controls South Chosun.”

He added, “On the way to becoming a strong and prosperous state, reunification definitely will come. Now we will certainly win as long as we have two people (Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Eun). As you can see in the latest case, we defeated the enemy in a single stroke.”

According to the source, the North’s authorities have spread the word domestically that, “We have given South Chosun a lesson because it was not obedient to us when we talked kindly to them,” while claiming internationally that, “The shelling on the Yeonpyeong Island was an exercise of self-defense against the South’s provocation.”

According to the source, the cadre continued, “Members should follow the Party and not believe South Chosun propaganda. Those who have betrayed the Party at a difficult time will necessarily be paid back when reunification comes.

“Mid-level cadres should reinforce the functions and roles of the party organs, carry out their political roles well by respecting the General and Comrade Kim Jong Eun in the next year, and pay more attention to the people’s everyday lives.”

The source also conveyed different reactions to the cadre’s comments. Some said, “Let’s continue to persevere because we will win when a war breaks out,” while others said, “I don’t want to believe these kinds of speeches since I am sick of so many speeches.” "

AND

From: http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk01500&num=7187

"Lecture Scheduled on Kim Jong Eun’s Leadership

By Kang Mi Jin
[2010-12-27 18:55 ]

In advance of the new year, 2011, the North Korean authorities have released lecture materials to emphasize “Kim Jong Eun’s leadership.” It implies that they are going to make 2011 the year of Kim Jong Eun, though without the label of “successor.”

A source from Yangkang Province reported on Monday on “a lecture entitled, 'In the New Year under comrade Kim Jong Eun’s leadership the whole people should be united impregnably around the Party and open the gate of 2012 as a strong and prosperous state.' It has been spread to each organ and enterprise.”

The source added, “The secretary of the party cell reported that this material was handed down and said the party is going to hold a lecture around the 30th. He stressed that we definitely must attend the lecture.”

Since the North’s authorities announced publicly the Kim Jong Eun succession through the Delegates’ Conference of the Chosun Workers’ Party and on the founding day of the Party, they have been speeding up the process of the succession through releasing Kim Jong Eun’s public activities such as military or security related on-site inspections with his father through the state publications and orders handed down from Kim Jong Eun.

The source reported the mood there, saying that, “Even though the authorities have been clamoring for decades to ‘Protect the Suryeong (Absolute Leader) to the Death,’ there are still many citizens who don’t attend lectures. When they do go to the lectures, they think it is a time napping.”

He went on, “Nowadays as food prices and other prices are soaring, people say that it’s hard to live or they aren't sure about the propaganda.”

The source construed the attempt to hold lectures about Kim Jong Eun’s leadership likely to be a countermeasure to eliminate people’s discontent with Kim Jong Eun. "

The ROK isn't the only one holding military exercises.

From: http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2930252

"North Korean Air Force increases training flights

Military exercises are on the rise as tensions escalate

December 29, 2010

North Korea’s Air Force has launched more training exercises this month compared to the same period last year, in response to large-scale South Korean military drills conducted following the Yeonpyeong Island attack.

The vigor with which the Korean People’s Army Air Force, as it is officially known, has conducted the drills - which included simulated attacks on South Korea - has resulted in the crash of one MiG fighter jet, according to a source. There has been a 150 percent increase in the number of military drills from December 2009, and they have included soldiers from the Army and Navy.

“It shows that the North Korean military has been very tense after the attack on Yeonpyeong Island,” said a South Korean military source.

It is exceptional for North Korea to hold extensive winter flight drills because of a shortage of fuel.

According to sources, while the South Korean Army and Air Force were holding a joint firing drill last week, North Korea was conducting one of its own. Along the coast of South Pyongan Province, adjacent to the Yellow Sea, the North Korean military test-fired 122-mm multiple launch guns, which were used during the Yeonpyeong Island attack, as well as long-range artillery that could hit the Seoul metropolitan area. The artillery firing drills have caught the eye of the South Korean government because they were conducted five times this month.

North Korean artillery battalions along the military demarcation line have been observed practicing attacks on South Korean strongholds, which has led the South Korean military to believe that the North will attack the South’s military camps first in the event of additional provocations along the land border.

Movement near the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea has included frequent sightings of North Korean submarines and anti-submarine coastal artillery being brought in further toward the coast. Sources say the reason for North Korea’s attack on Yeonpyeong Island and it’s sinking of the Cheonan in March is closely connected to the succession of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. Fear of constant military clashes can silence complaints from ordinary citizens and increase heir-apparent Kim Jong-un’s control over the military.

“Artillery firing is one of North Korea’s core tactics against the South,” said professor Kim Yeon-su at the Korea National Defense University. “For Kim Jong-un to gain legitimacy, North Korea thinks it’s important to display its power against the South.”"

Slightly off topic but in reference to the North Korean Air Force's "flight training", I'm reminded of a rather droll comment made by an intel officer during Desert Shield on the one day when the Iraqui Air Force decided to fight before fleeing en masse to Syria: "The Iraquis are providing our pilots with manned target drones..."

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Chinese Fortune Cookies and CS-21

It is noteworthy that in today's edition of China Daily there is a complaint being directed towards the United States for a deployment yet to actually happen.


The JoongAng Daily, in the ROK, reported last week that the US decided to send another nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the USS Ronald Reagan, to East Asia.

If true, this will be the third US aircraft carrier deployed in the area, in addition to the USS George Washington, which earlier took part in Washington's joint military drills with Seoul and Tokyo, and the USS Carl Vinson, which just arrived at Guam in the western Pacific.

Analysts accused the US of increasing the danger of war in the region even though the DPRK has shown restraint amid a number of recent ROK drills.

"Three aircraft carriers in the same region are going to be interpreted as a signal of preparing for war," Major General Luo Yuan, with the PLA Academy of Military Sciences, told China Daily.

What is this about? The scheduled deployment of the USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) is in the near future, and China believes the aircraft carrier will immediately be heading to show the flag near North Korea. That may be true, although it may not be true.

Because it might be true, China is filing a complaint about that possibility today, in sort of a preemptive complaint about a future deployment. It is interesting to note, but won't impact where the US sends aircraft carriers - after all if you browse other news you will notice how many folks are discussing the very possibility that North Korea plans to be very provocative in 2011, and you will also notice that China appears to be unable to do anything about that.

While three carriers is a big show of force, I think more realistically what we can expect in the near future is the continuous presence of 2 US aircraft carriers in the Pacific for the first half of 2011. They won't always be around North Korea, as there will be other requirements, but North Korea will be the reason the Pacific will be more crowded in 2011 than it was in 2010. China won't be happy about that, so I suspect a lot of complaining will be the new normal from China.

(snip)

http://www.informationdissemination.net/

Not directly on topic, but certainly related to security and defense issues in NE Asia. Pictures at the link.

J-20 - Denial Is Not An Option
Posted by Bill Sweetman at 12/28/2010 7:51 AM CST

More photos of the Chengdu stealth fighter prototype, reportedly the J-20, continue to emerge - although they don't add too much as yet to our understanding of the aircraft itself. It will take a little more measurement to pin down the jet's size, and without a plan view we can't say much. (The last time this happened was with the YF-12, and most people were miles away from the real aircraft.)

First, it looks like a delta, not a lambda:

That has some signature implications, with what looks like an almost unswept trailing edge, because edges scatter forward and backwards.

The questions that need to be answered start with the size, because that will start to tell us where this aircraft falls on the bomber/fighter continuum.

The next question: how far along is the aircraft in development and, if it is pursued, when will it become operational? I would submit that the simplistic approach - comparing this aircraft to the YF-22 or X-35 and therefore projecting an IOC well beyond 2020 - is philosophically wrong, dangerous and stupid.

One problem is that we don't have a pattern for Chinese major programs. In the Cold War, the Soviet Union had its own development procedure that often confused us. The first aircraft of any type would be pure prototypes. Once the go-ahead was given for the type to enter service, MiG or Sukhoi would build a small batch of aircraft for service testing under operational conditions. Only then would full-rate production start. What was often confusing was that the service-test jets would be mistaken for operational aircraft.

China has not had many major combat aircraft programs. The most complex is the J-10, which flew in 1998 and is now well established in service with a major upgrade in flight test. The simpler JF-17 has moved even faster. However, this means that Chengdu can draw on a team which has recent experience with two full development programs and an upgrade.

Once big factor will be the engine. China's transition from dependence on Russian-developed high-performance engines is still under way. The key will be seeing whether and when the doemstically designed WS-10 replaces the Russian AL-31 in the J-10 and the J-11 (China's "bootleg" version of the Sukhoi family).

What could change things substantially is Russian-Chinese collaboration. Despite Russian concerns over China's reverse-engineering of its products, the lure of Chinese money and access to China's micro-electronics base is strong. And if Russia has permitted the export of the latest 117S engines for the J-20, it tells us a lot.

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/blog...&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest

Catbird said:

The ROK isn't the only one holding military exercises.

From: http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2930252

"North Korean Air Force increases training flights

Military exercises are on the rise as tensions escalate

December 29, 2010

North Korea’s Air Force has launched more training exercises this month compared to the same period last year, in response to large-scale South Korean military drills conducted following the Yeonpyeong Island attack.

The vigor with which the Korean People’s Army Air Force, as it is officially known, has conducted the drills - which included simulated attacks on South Korea - has resulted in the crash of one MiG fighter jet, according to a source. There has been a 150 percent increase in the number of military drills from December 2009, and they have included soldiers from the Army and Navy.

“It shows that the North Korean military has been very tense after the attack on Yeonpyeong Island,” said a South Korean military source.

It is exceptional for North Korea to hold extensive winter flight drills because of a shortage of fuel.

According to sources, while the South Korean Army and Air Force were holding a joint firing drill last week, North Korea was conducting one of its own. Along the coast of South Pyongan Province, adjacent to the Yellow Sea, the North Korean military test-fired 122-mm multiple launch guns, which were used during the Yeonpyeong Island attack, as well as long-range artillery that could hit the Seoul metropolitan area. The artillery firing drills have caught the eye of the South Korean government because they were conducted five times this month.

North Korean artillery battalions along the military demarcation line have been observed practicing attacks on South Korean strongholds, which has led the South Korean military to believe that the North will attack the South’s military camps first in the event of additional provocations along the land border.

Movement near the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea has included frequent sightings of North Korean submarines and anti-submarine coastal artillery being brought in further toward the coast. Sources say the reason for North Korea’s attack on Yeonpyeong Island and it’s sinking of the Cheonan in March is closely connected to the succession of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. Fear of constant military clashes can silence complaints from ordinary citizens and increase heir-apparent Kim Jong-un’s control over the military.

“Artillery firing is one of North Korea’s core tactics against the South,” said professor Kim Yeon-su at the Korea National Defense University. “For Kim Jong-un to gain legitimacy, North Korea thinks it’s important to display its power against the South.”"

Click to expand...

I guess this would partly explain why we have seen such an ardent response from the ROK and the US. NORK intentions have always been very difficult to read, so I could imagine seeing all this activity on the other side of the border would cause some alarm south of the border. This could be nothing more than training and posturing meant solely for an internal/domestic audience to help bolster Kim Jr. It could also be precautionary training to help prepare and/or deter the South from retaliatory action in response to the Cheonan and Yeonypeong Island attacks. Or it could be a combination of both.

However, what is somewhat disturbing to me is the types of training/posturing/deployments being seen north of the border. While the article doesn't exactly give alot of detail into the size of the DPRK maneuvers (except for the Air Force training increasing 150%), the types of training involved is geared more toward general warfare on the whole peninsula, than training for what I would call "assymetric attacks".

1) Air Force significantly has increased training (and are doing so in coordination with other elements of the DPRK .mil)

2) Heightened naval (mostly submarine) activity spotted around the NLL.

3) Heightened short-range artillery drilling along the DMZ that appears to be directed at ROK military installations along the DMZ

4) Heightened long-range artillery drilling that could target Seoul.

I am not suggesting the DPRK is gearing up for a "Red Pheonix" (Larry Bond) type of scenario, but given what is going on north of the border, I don't think one could rule it out entirely either.

jpigott said:

I guess this would partly explain why we have seen such an ardent response from the ROK and the US. NORK intentions have always been very difficult to read, so I could imagine seeing all this activity on the other side of the border would cause some alarm south of the border. This could be nothing more than training and posturing meant solely for an internal/domestic audience to help bolster Kim Jr. It could also be precautionary training to help prepare and/or deter the South from retaliatory action in response to the Cheonan and Yeonypeong Island attacks. Or it could be a combination of both.

However, what is somewhat disturbing to me is the types of training/posturing/deployments being seen north of the border. While the article doesn't exactly give alot of detail into the size of the DPRK maneuvers (except for the Air Force training increasing 150%), the types of training involved is geared more toward general warfare on the whole peninsula, than training for what I would call "assymetric attacks".

1) Air Force significantly has increased training (and are doing so in coordination with other elements of the DPRK .mil)

2) Heightened naval (mostly submarine) activity spotted around the NLL.

3) Heightened short-range artillery drilling along the DMZ that appears to be directed at ROK military installations along the DMZ

4) Heightened long-range artillery drilling that could target Seoul.

I am not suggesting the DPRK is gearing up for a "Red Pheonix" (Larry Bond) type of scenario, but given what is going on north of the border, I don't think one could rule it out entirely either.

Click to expand...

China Connection has been right all along in highlighting that if a NK invasion of SK is the plan then we are now in the time frame because the rivers and lakes are freezing solid meaning that NK can move heavy equipment along alternative routes unimpeded by SK tank traps that line the major roadways.

Couple tweets from Galrahn at Info Dis regarding the unusual/increased DPRK .mil exercises -

Sources note DPRK increases training 150% for Air Force, increases for all North Korean armed services. http://tinyurl.com/3a9qcn4 about 1 hour ago via Twitter for Android

The cost to North Korea to run numerous military drills during the beginning of winter must be staggering. about 1 hour ago via Twitter for Android

http://twitter.com/Galrahn

This doesn't look good at all.

Kim Jong-un trying to build some street credibility?

5 N. Koreans confirmed killed in Yeonpyeong Island clash

12/29/10

North Korean heir-apparent Kim Jong-un has honored 5 soldiers killed during an inter-Korean clash on Nov. 23.

Kim, son of current leader Kim Jong-il, has instructed in a series of addresses beginning last Thursday that the 5 be entitled “National Heroes.”

“The death of 5 North Korean soldiers at the Yeonpyeong Island clash were officially announced to the North Korean army,” reported Open Radio for North Korea, Dec. 28, quoting a source in Hoeryeong, North Korean border town in North Hamgyeong Province. The source added that commemoration the 5 soldiers is limited to within the army, and that ordinary North Koreans are not properly informed of the fatalities.

It remains unclear whether North Korea suffered any further loss of lives in the counterattack of the South against shell fire of North Korean forces on the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong. Two South Korean marines and two other civilians were killed in the fire with another 19 injured.

The same source in Hoeryeong noted that Kim Jong-un’s role in managing the aftermath of the Yeonpyeong clash appears greater than Kim Jong-il’s. The source concludes that Kim Jong-un is seeking to demonstrate leadership credebility to North Korea’s military elite.

Finally, the source argued that North Korea was citing the Yeonpyeong Island clash to rally North Korean sentiment against South Korea, especially within the army. Broadcasts by North Korea’s central television service have been depicting the Yeonpyeong clash not as a North Korean victory but instead as an instance of victimization by the South.

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2010/12/182_78779.html

China's foreign minister to visit US
Posted: 28 December 2010 1703 hrs

BEIJING: China said Tuesday its foreign minister would head for the United States next week to prepare for President Hu Jintao's visit, as the two sides try to ease trade spats and tensions on the Korean peninsula.

Yang Jiechi is due in the United States from January 3 to 7 and will "exchange views on bilateral relations and issues of common interest" with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said.

She added the visit was in preparation for Hu's state visit to Washington on January 19.

Hu is due to hold in-depth talks with US President Barack Obama at a time of economic tensions between Washington and Beijing and shared concern over the situation in the Korean peninsula.

The United States has urged China to allow its currency to rise more quickly, claiming it is artificially undervalued, creating an unfair trade advantage.

The two sides are also locked in several trade disputes, but they are trying to find common ground on issues like North Korea.

Tensions are high on the Korean peninsula following the North's shelling last month of a South Korean border island, which killed four people, including civilians.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/1101540/1/.html

With the NK trump card, the entire 20-or-so year strategic deception of the West can be undone. All of the sudden the 'Old Enemy' will be the enemy again as China and Russia line up behind NK. The U.S. is now incredibly vulnerable to a breach in its relationship with China since Beijing used its impoverished population as a slave labor supply to lure in Western capitalists and thereby take effective control of the means of manufacturing. At once all of the misled assumptions and expectations that went into the formation of a cozy East-West relationship will be out the window and financial Armageddon will occur in the West. It's all a matter of misplaced trust.

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2010/11/on-north-korea.html

IMHO, part of the problem is that the banksters who have usurped our nation and misled others around the world for personal gain with utter disregard to America's long-term best interests have so peeved great powers like Russia and China that these brutal, nationalistic countries took a course to outwit and destroy us.

Some interesting comments from PACOM.

From: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2010/12/29/13/0301000000AEN20101229000100315F.HTML

"2010/12/29 07:13 KST

U.S. warns of further provocations from N. Korea: commander

WASHINGTON, Dec. 28 (Yonhap) -- The United States Tuesday urged China to play a role in dissuading North Korea from further provoking South Korea, fearing Pyongyang might soon retaliate against military drills Seoul had conducted recently in a show of force.

"There was not a response from the North Koreans to the artillery exercise that was conducted by the Republic of Korea on Dec. 20," Adm. Robert Willard, the commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, told the Asahi Shimbun. "I think, for now, we're past this particular crisis, but we have no doubt, given North Korea's history, that a next provocation is readied."

North Korea had backed away from its earlier threat to retaliate for a series of air, ground and naval exercises South Korea conducted independently and jointly with the U.S. in recent weeks in a show of force against further provocations. The South Korean military, however, still remains on high alert.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak replaced Defense Minister Kim Tae-young early this month amid growing criticism that the South Korean military responded in a feeble manner to the North's shelling of a South Korean island near the disputed western sea border. Four people were killed in that attack, the first on South Korean soil to target civilians since the 1950-53 Korean War.

Lee has ordered the South Korean military to use air as well as naval and ground forces to counter any additional provocations from the North, amid concerns of all-out war.

Willard called on China, North Korea's staunchest communist ally, to do more to dissuade North Korea from engaging in further hostilities.

"It's a matter of assessing how it might be deterred or how the North Koreans might be dissuaded from exercising the next provocation," the commander said. "We think the U.S.-Republic of Korea alliance is part of that deterrence effort. We think the international community and China in particular are another part of it."

Willard acknowledged that the South Korean-U.S. joint defense posture has been ineffective in deterring North Korea's recent provocations, including the shelling of Yeonpyeong last month and the North's torpedoeing of a South Korean warship that killed 46 sailors in the Yellow Sea in March.

"We don't know what we're able to prevent, given the closed nature of North Korea, but it shouldn't stop us from continuing to attempt to posture ourselves and to have the international community apply what levers they can to try and deter the next provocations," he said. "The other forms of deterrence, deterring their nuclear weapon advancements, denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, our ability to deter that development has not been successful to date, and likewise, in this instance, our ability to deter a series of provocations has not been particularly successful."

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates will visit South Korea next month to discuss North Korea's provocations and enhancing the alliance with South Korea
Gates originally planned to visit only Beijing and Tokyo, but included Seoul in his itinerary Monday to show the urgency involving the North Korean belligerence. He will meet with his counterpart, new Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin.

"Secretary Gates has added a brief stop in the Republic of Korea to his upcoming trip to Asia," Geoff Morrell, Pentagon spokesman, said in a statement. "Following previously announced visits to China and Japan, the Secretary will travel to Seoul on January 14th to meet with Minister of Defense Kim. They will discuss North Korea's recent actions and consult on the way forward for the alliance to address the threats posed by North Korean provocations and its nuclear and missile programs."

Gates' Beijing trip comes ahead of Chinese President Hu Jintao's state visit to Washington on Jan. 19 for a summit with U.S. President Barack Obama. North Korea will be among the topics, along with the Chinese currency yuan's revaluation, enhancing bilateral ties and other issues.

Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi is soon to visit Washington and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg will likely reciprocate with a tour of Beijing to prepare for the summit...."

Catbird said:

Some interesting comments from PACOM.

From: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2010/12/29/13/0301000000AEN20101229000100315F.HTML

"2010/12/29 07:13 KST

U.S. warns of further provocations from N. Korea: commander

WASHINGTON, Dec. 28 (Yonhap) -- The United States Tuesday urged China to play a role in dissuading North Korea from further provoking South Korea, fearing Pyongyang might soon retaliate against military drills Seoul had conducted recently in a show of force.

"There was not a response from the North Koreans to the artillery exercise that was conducted by the Republic of Korea on Dec. 20," Adm. Robert Willard, the commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, told the Asahi Shimbun. "I think, for now, we're past this particular crisis, but we have no doubt, given North Korea's history, that a next provocation is readied."

North Korea had backed away from its earlier threat to retaliate for a series of air, ground and naval exercises South Korea conducted independently and jointly with the U.S. in recent weeks in a show of force against further provocations. The South Korean military, however, still remains on high alert.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak replaced Defense Minister Kim Tae-young early this month amid growing criticism that the South Korean military responded in a feeble manner to the North's shelling of a South Korean island near the disputed western sea border. Four people were killed in that attack, the first on South Korean soil to target civilians since the 1950-53 Korean War.

Lee has ordered the South Korean military to use air as well as naval and ground forces to counter any additional provocations from the North, amid concerns of all-out war.

Willard called on China, North Korea's staunchest communist ally, to do more to dissuade North Korea from engaging in further hostilities.

"It's a matter of assessing how it might be deterred or how the North Koreans might be dissuaded from exercising the next provocation," the commander said. "We think the U.S.-Republic of Korea alliance is part of that deterrence effort. We think the international community and China in particular are another part of it."

Willard acknowledged that the South Korean-U.S. joint defense posture has been ineffective in deterring North Korea's recent provocations, including the shelling of Yeonpyeong last month and the North's torpedoeing of a South Korean warship that killed 46 sailors in the Yellow Sea in March.

"We don't know what we're able to prevent, given the closed nature of North Korea, but it shouldn't stop us from continuing to attempt to posture ourselves and to have the international community apply what levers they can to try and deter the next provocations," he said. "The other forms of deterrence, deterring their nuclear weapon advancements, denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, our ability to deter that development has not been successful to date, and likewise, in this instance, our ability to deter a series of provocations has not been particularly successful."

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates will visit South Korea next month to discuss North Korea's provocations and enhancing the alliance with South Korea
Gates originally planned to visit only Beijing and Tokyo, but included Seoul in his itinerary Monday to show the urgency involving the North Korean belligerence. He will meet with his counterpart, new Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin.

"Secretary Gates has added a brief stop in the Republic of Korea to his upcoming trip to Asia," Geoff Morrell, Pentagon spokesman, said in a statement. "Following previously announced visits to China and Japan, the Secretary will travel to Seoul on January 14th to meet with Minister of Defense Kim. They will discuss North Korea's recent actions and consult on the way forward for the alliance to address the threats posed by North Korean provocations and its nuclear and missile programs."

Gates' Beijing trip comes ahead of Chinese President Hu Jintao's state visit to Washington on Jan. 19 for a summit with U.S. President Barack Obama. North Korea will be among the topics, along with the Chinese currency yuan's revaluation, enhancing bilateral ties and other issues.

Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi is soon to visit Washington and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg will likely reciprocate with a tour of Beijing to prepare for the summit...."

Click to expand...

PACOM joins the chorus. I think just about every major voice within our defense/security establishment having anything to do with NE Asia has now chimed in, in an alarming fashion at that. This whole thing stinks . . .

Yep, sometime this month they will attack and it will be an all out attack. I expect to see that North Korea has better gear than expected also. Russia and China both back them.




.

China has carrier-killer missile, U.S. admiral says

China has carrier-killer missile, U.S. admiral says

By Bill Gertz
The Washington Times
2:26 p.m., Monday, December 27, 2010

China's military is deploying a new anti-ship ballistic missile that can sink U.S. aircraft carriers, a weapon that specialists say gives Beijing new power-projection capabilities that will affect U.S. support for its Pacific allies.

Adm. Robert F. Willard, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, disclosed to a Japanese newspaper on Sunday that the new anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) is now in the early stages of deployment after having undergone extensive testing.

"An analogy using a Western term would be 'initial operational capability (IOC),' whereby I think China would perceive that it has an operational capability now, but they continue to develop it," Adm. Willard told the Asahi Shimbun. "I would gauge it as about the equivalent of a U.S. system that has achieved IOC."

The four-star admiral, who has been an outspoken skeptic of China's claims that its large-scale military buildup is peaceful, said the U.S. deployment assessment is based on China's press reports and continued testing.

The new weapon, the "D" version of China's DF-21 medium-range missile, involves firing the mobile missile into space, returning it into the atmosphere and then maneuvering it to its target

Military officials consider using ballistic missiles against ships at sea to be a difficult task that requires a variety of air, sea and space sensors, navigation systems and precision guidance technology - capabilities not typical of other Chinese missiles.

Asked about the integrated system, Adm. Willard said that "to have something that would be regarded as in its early operational stage would require that system be able to accomplish its flight pattern as designed, by and large."

The admiral said that while the U.S. thinks "that the component parts of the anti-ship ballistic missile have been developed and tested," China's testing has not gone as far as a live-fire test attack on an actual ship.

"We have not seen an over-water test of the entire system," he said.

Adm. Willard said he did not view the new missile as a greater threat to U.S. and allied forces than China's submarine forces, which also have been expanded greatly in the past decade.

"Anti-access/area denial, which is a term that was relatively recently coined, is attempting to represent an entire range of capabilities that China has developed and that other countries have developed," he said.

"It´s not exclusively China that has what is now being referred to as A2/AD capability. But in China´s case, it´s a combination of integrated air-defense systems; advanced naval systems, such as the submarine; advanced ballistic-missile systems, such as the anti-ship ballistic missile, as well as power-projection systems into the region," he said.

The new weapons can threaten "archipelagos" in Asia, such as Japan and Philippines, as well as Vietnam and other states that "are falling within the envelope of this, of an A2/AD capability of China," Adm. Willard said.

"That should be concerning - and we know is concerning - to those countries," he said.

Adm. Willard said the new weapons are "an expanded capability that ranges beyond the first island chain and overlaps countries in the region."

"For that reason, it is concerning to Southeast Asia, [and] it remains concerning to the United States."

Andrew S. Erickson, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, said the admiral's comments on the missile deployment confirm earlier reports that the Chinese are moving ahead with the DF-21D missile.

"China must have conducted a rigorous program of tests, most likely including flight tests, to demonstrate that the DF-21D [missile] is mature enough for initial production, deployment and employment," Mr. Erickson said in an e-mail.

Mr. Erickson estimates that at least one unit of China's Second Artillery Corps, as its missile forces are called, must be equipped with the road-mobile system.

"While doubtless an area of continuous challenge and improvement, the DF-21D´s command, control, communications, computers, information, surveillance, and reconnaissance infrastructure must be sufficient to support attempts at basic carrier strike group targeting," he said.

Mr. Erickson said, based on Chinese missile-deployment patterns, that the new missile system likely will be fielded in "waves" at different units to meet deterrence objectives.

Military specialists have said the DF-21D deployment is a potent new threat because it will force U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups to operate farther from hot spots in the western Pacific.

Currently, U.S. military strategy calls for the Pentagon to send several strike groups to waters near Taiwan in the event China follows through on threats to use force to retake the island. The lone U.S. aircraft carrier strike group based permanently in the region is the USS George Washington, whose home port is inYokosuka, Japan. A second carrier is planned for Hawaii or Guam.

Carrier forces also provide air power in the event of a new war in Korea and are used to assure freedom of navigation, a growing problem as the result of recent Chinese military assertiveness in the South China Sea, East China Sea and Yellow Sea.

Adm. Willard did not discuss what U.S. countermeasures the Navy has taken against the new anti-ship missile. U.S. naval task forces include ships equipped with the Aegis system designed to shoot down ballistic missiles.

Wallace "Chip" Gregson, assistant defense secretary for Asian and Pacific security affairs, said in a speech earlier this month that China's new anti-access and area-denial weapons, including the DF-21D, "threaten our primary means of projecting power: our bases, our sea and air assets, and the networks that support them."

He warned that China's military buildup could "upend the regional security balance."

Richard Fisher, a China military-affairs specialist, said the new ASBM is only one part of a series of new Chinese weapons that threaten the region.

"When we add the ASBM to the PLA's [People's Liberation Army's] growing anti-satellite capabilities, growing numbers of submarines, and quite soon, its fifth-generation fighter, we are seeing the erection of a new Chinese wall in the western Pacific, for which the Obama administration has offered almost nothing in defensive response," Mr. Fisher said.

"Clearly, China's communist leadership is not impressed by the administration's ending of F-22 production, its retirement of the Navy's nuclear cruise missile, START Treaty reductions in U.S. missile warheads, and its refusal to consider U.S. space warfare capabilities. Such weakness is the surest way to invite military adventurism from China," he added.

Mr. Fisher said the Pentagon should mount a crash program to develop high-technology energy weapons, like rail guns and lasers in response to the new ASBMs.

Mark Stokes, a retired Air Force officer who has written extensively on the new missile, said the new deployment is a concern.

"China's ability to place at risk U.S. and other nations' maritime surface assets operating in the western Pacific and South China Sea is growing and closer to becoming a reality than many may think," Mr. Stokes said.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/dec/27/china-deploying-carrier-sinking-ballistic-missile/


Posted Under Fair Use Discussion

My Commemts

Bill Gertz has been watching China's rising for a while and is a good source of info.

I wonder what the other 14% want ?

From: http://world.kbs.co.kr/english/news/news_Po_detail.htm?No=78305

"86% of S.Koreans Support Self-Defense Right

Update 2010-12-29 09:04:51

A new survey finds that more than 80 percent of South Koreans support strong responses to North Korean provocations.

According to the phone survey conducted by the Defense Ministry on one-thousand adults, 86-point-eight percent of respondents said they support the military’s exercise of the right to self-defense in the face of North Korean aggression.

Asked about how to react in the event of further North Korean provocations, more than 26 percent said the government should devise measures with the international community, while more than 57 percent said Seoul should seek military responses.

Around 60 percent of respondents said the South Korean military’s response to the North’s artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island last month was inappropriate.

On the live-fire drills the South conducted on December 20th, nearly 76 percent said the exercises were a good move.

The survey was conducted last Thursday and Friday by the Institute for Social Development and Policy Research of Seoul National University at the request of the Defense Ministry. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three-point-one percent with a confidence level of 95 percent."

Catbird said:

I wonder what the other 14% want ?

Click to expand...

It's what they don't want, and I don't blame them.

This is.... interesting

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2010/12/29/0200000000AEN20101229001800315.HTML

- South Korean President Lee Myung-bak said Wednesday that there is no alternative to the six-way talks in efforts to dismantle North Korea's nuclear program, a remark that may signal Seoul's flexible stance toward the resumption of the long-stalled forum.

"(We) have no choice but to resolve the problem of dismantling North Korea's nuclear program diplomatically through the six-party talks," Lee said after receiving a report from the foreign ministry on its major works in 2011.

Lee's comments came as the viability of the Beijing-based negotiations, also involving the United States, Russia and Japan, is being increasingly questioned amid Pyongyang's continued provocations. The secretive communist nation also recently revealed its new uranium enrichment facility.

The president said the international community is pressed for time in seeking to get rid of the North's nuclear program as it aims to become a self-styled "strong and prosperous" nation by 2012.

"Because North Korea has the goal of becoming a strong and prosperous country in 2012, (we) should certainly achieve the dismantlement of its nuclear program next year," Lee said.

Click to expand...

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2010/12/28/0200000000AEN20101228008700315.HTML

In a 2011 policy report to President Lee Myung-bak, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade said it will work to form a consensus with the United States, Japan and other key friendly nations on the reunification of the divided Korean Peninsula.

The ministry said it will also study and prepare for the legal and economic issues that are certain to arise in the reunification process.

Click to expand...

"The plan is to bring up all measures involved in the reunification process, such as gaining the approval of international organizations and determining the responsibilities we will have to bear under international law," said a ministry official, speaking on condition of anonymity. "And if necessary, we will try to secure the support of our allies in advance through consultations with them."
The ministry also aims to focus on expanding ties with the emerging and
developing economies of Africa, the Middle East and Central and South America as part of its efforts to achieve a "Global Korea," the report said.

Click to expand...

Spirit Of Truth said:

With the NK trump card, the entire 20-or-so year strategic deception of the West can be undone. All of the sudden the 'Old Enemy' will be the enemy again as China and Russia line up behind NK. The U.S. is now incredibly vulnerable to a breach in its relationship with China since Beijing used its impoverished population as a slave labor supply to lure in Western capitalists and thereby take effective control of the means of manufacturing. At once all of the misled assumptions and expectations that went into the formation of a cozy East-West relationship will be out the window and financial Armageddon will occur in the West. It's all a matter of misplaced trust.

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2010/11/on-north-korea.html

IMHO, part of the problem is that the banksters who have usurped our nation and misled others around the world for personal gain with utter disregard to America's long-term best interests have so peeved great powers like Russia and China that these brutal, nationalistic countries took a course to outwit and destroy us.

Click to expand...

About the only "good" info I've got for everyone in that scenario is the ease by which the Taurus 1 satellite launcher can be switched into a heavy ICBM. Of course that would require a political decision.......

It's always our fault.

From: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2010/12/29/3/0401000000AEN20101229003100315F.HTML

"2010/12/29 10:58 KST

N. Korea lays blame for its uranium enrichment project on U.S.

SEOUL, Dec. 29 (Yonhap) -- North Korea tried Wednesday to justify its newly unveiled uranium enrichment activities, saying its nuclear deadlock with the United States would not have turned "complicated" had Washington followed through with its 1994 pledge to build light-water reactors for Pyongyang.

The U.S. in 2002 suspended the construction of two 1,000-megawatt light-water reactors in North Korea after accusing Pyongyang of running a secret uranium program in a bid to build nuclear warheads.

The Rodong Sinmun, the newspaper of the North's ruling Workers' Party, said the nuclear situation on the Korean Peninsula "would not have been as complicated as it is now had the U.S. completed the construction and handed over the key" for the reactors.

North Korea told visiting U.S. scholars last month that it was operating thousands of modern centrifuges and building a light-water reactor at its main nuclear complex in Yongbyon.

Centrifuges are used to enrich uranium, which can be turned into weapons if highly enriched. Light-water reactors use low-enriched uranium to produce energy.

Reiterating its claim that its uranium enrichment is for peaceful energy use, the North claimed through the party daily that cooperation over such development is "an unstoppable trend" around the world, hinting at its willingness to spread the technology.

"The issue of nuclear energy development and use is especially drawing keen interest from developing countries whose economies have been prevented from normal development by imperialists," the editorial said."

The DPRK backed up, now the ROK backs up so they don't seem to be the aggressor.

ROK says, fine, you want to talk, we'll talk. But you're going to have to commit to denuclearization under the auspicious of the IAEA, with all kinds of checks.

Now we wait for the DPRK reply.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2010/12/29/0200000000AEN20101229004400315.HTML

South Korea said Wednesday it will press North Korea next year to change its provocative behavior while being careful not to fall for another charm offensive by the communist neighbor.

In a report to the president ahead of the new year, the Unification Ministry said Seoul will seek dialogue with Pyongyang to resolve "crucial issues" -- a reference to nuclear arms and other inter-Korean political and humanitarian issues -- while maintaining measures aimed at punishing the North for its provocation.

The report came as President Lee Myung-bak said that stalled six-party talks are the only viable channel for denuclearizing Pyongyang, signaling his willingness to work toward the resumption of dialogue that also includes the U.S., China, Japan and Russia.

Click to expand...

"A camouflaged peace offensive will be dealt with actively," the Unification Ministry report said, adding that the government will also protest harsh rhetoric critical of Seoul.

The three policy goals in 2011 are to lead North Korea to change in a positive manner; to establish sound inter-Korean relations; and to begin preparations for reunification, the report said.

The ministry also said it will push to bring North Korea to the table to discuss a comprehensive aid-for-denuclearization deal with South Korea, while stepping up monitoring for humanitarian aid.

Click to expand...

The rhetoric that comes out of the DPRK is so over the top that when they say something in plain, simple language, it really gets my attention. The last line of this article from KCNA is about as blunt and truthful a statement that I've heard from them.

From: http://175.45.179.68/eng/t_news.php?uuu=today&year=2010&month=12&day=28&kk=8100&lang=eng

"U.S. Fabrication of "Northern Limit Line" Slammed

Pyongyang, December 28 (KCNA) -- Former State Secretary Kissinger and other former U.S. high-ranking officials recognized the illegality of the "northern limit line" in the West Sea of Korea, the U.S. media disclosed, according to Rodong Sinmun Tuesday.
The U.S. has so far tried to convince the world of the "substantiality" of the line and supported the south Korean puppet regime′s insistence on it, the newspaper commentary says, and goes on:
The "northern limit line" was unilaterally drawn in the West Sea of Korea by Clark, the then UN forces commander, on August 30, 1953 right after the conclusion of the Armistice Agreement. It is a bogus line of no legal ground and validity.
The DPRK and the U.S. are belligerent parties of the Korean War.
It is necessary for the two sides to sit face to face and reach an agreement through discussion to fix an extension of the military demarcation line in the West Sea of Korea.
However, Clark drew the "northern limit line" in the territorial waters of Korea in violation of international law with neither prior consultation nor notification to the DPRK.
This line has been a main cause of many unexpected military conflicts and disputes in the West Sea of Korea since the ceasefire.
The "northern limit line" invented by the U.S. to meet its intention is like a fuse and a time bomb for igniting the second Korean war.
The U.S can never conceal its nature as an arch criminal escalating instability and tension on the Korean Peninsula, sparking off north-south military conflict and increasing the danger of a new war.
The DPRK will never recognize the illegal "northern limit line." The U.S. had better understand it and stop insisting on the "northern limit line.""

snippets from a Washington Post article . . . Will the North provide enough cool off time to bring the South back to the table?

S. Korean president faces conflicting pressures as he toughens N. Korea response

12/28/10

Lee's shift in thinking has prompted modest but growing concern in the Obama administration, where officials worry that an overly aggressive South Korea could become a liability in its own right.

Political analysts in Seoul and Washington predict that Lee will soon face pressure from the United States to reengage diplomatically with the North. But Lee has turned increasingly hawkish in recent weeks after taking criticism for Seoul's weak initial counterattack to Pyongyang's Nov. 23 shelling of Yeonpyeong Island.

"It makes no sense to think we've seen the last of North Korea's provocations," said Bruce Klingner, a former North Korea CIA analyst and current researcher at the Heritage Foundation. "So now you have North Korea driven to additional provocations and Lee Myung-bak driven to respond more forcefully - even if it leads to conflict. When you have that situation, you're much more likely to have a miscalculation."


"But after the Yeonpyeong incident, the balance of power has been shifted - rapidly - toward the right side," becoming more hawkish, one key South Korean government official said. "So this is a huge damage toward North Korea's [strategy]. So I think Yeonpyeong was a military and policy mistake by Pyongyang."

But in the next months, the Western diplomat said, U.S. officials will pressure Seoul to reopen dialogue with Kim Jong Il's government. Political experts note that such an option could appear contradictory, and make Lee look erratic and indecisive, given Seoul's current tough rhetoric.

"However," said Wi Sung-lac, South Korea's chief nuclear negotiator, "[Lee] has never ruled out the possibility of dialogue. He's always left that open."

"Lee's biggest pressure right now is satisfying his constituency now that the public has become more conservative," said Hahm Sung-deuk, a presidential expert at Korea University. "Efforts to engage with the North might seem like betraying the public. We need some cool-down time in order to engage with the North again."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...01842_2.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2010121002741

Rats leaving a sinking ship. 3 pretty high level defections from North Korea in recent days. And take a look at the photo linked in the story . . . some military high brass has taken the middle seat, while Kim Yong-Il and Kim Yong-un are to the right and left of him . . . who is really in control? This picture suggests it may be the military???

Loyalty Flagging as Officials Defect

2010-12-27

More of North Korea’s elite are choosing to leave the country as their faith in the regime begins to wane.

AFP PHOTO/KCNA via KNS
Undated photo shows Kim Jong Il (front R) and Kim Jong Un (front L) with the military's 'State Merited Chorus' in Pyongyang.


Three high-level officials from North Korea have defected to the South in what some observers see as eroding confidence among the elite in leader Kim Jong Il's regime.

The defections in recent days were reported by the South Korean media and RFA sources, but the names of the officials who hold relatively influential positions in the administration were not published due to obvious concerns over their safety.

The first defector, a Russian language translator working for the [North] Korean People’s Army (KPA) Joint Chiefs of Staff, requested asylum in Russia.

Mindful of relations with North Korea, Russian authorities denied him asylum, but, with the assistance of UN officials, the translator is expected to relocate to South Korea shortly.


The official translator said the North Korean people faced hardship under the Kim regime and that he “wanted to change this situation from the world outside North Korea.”

Serious implications

The defection could have serious implications for Pyongyang if the translator was privy to discussions on military cooperation between high-level North Korean military officials and their foreign counterparts.

Some reports said he knew a lot about the inner workings of the regime. Among other things, he may shed light on the means by which North Korea evades UN Security Council sanctions and rumors that, in order to earn hard currency, North Korea exported technology linked to weapons of mass destruction, according to the reports.

The second defector, the North Korean general manager of the state-run Prongyang Okryukwan cold noodle restaurant in Nepal, recently defected to South Korea through a third country.

The restaurant manager, who had been entrusted with money earned by North Korean workers abroad, reportedly defected with a large amount of U.S. dollars.

The third official who defected was the first secretary of the Youth League in North Korea’s Yanggang province. He chose to defect to South Korea despite having an impressive political resume.

Reports suggest that the official was being groomed to become a member of the [North Korean] Workers’ Party Central Committee, but he was caught watching a South Korean soap opera and subjected to severe criticism by the party.

http://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/defect-12272010154609.html

Jeffrey Thomason said:

The DPRK backed up, now the ROK backs up so they don't seem to be the aggressor.

ROK says, fine, you want to talk, we'll talk. But you're going to have to commit to denuclearization under the auspicious of the IAEA, with all kinds of checks.

Now we wait for the DPRK reply.

Click to expand...

And here it is:

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2010/12/29/0200000000AEN20101229011400315.HTML

Later Wednesday, North Korea blasted Minister Hyun's 2011 policy plans as a scheme to destroy the North's regime.

The North said in a commentary run by its official Web site "Uriminjokkiri" that South Korea's attempt to achieve unification by absorption would lead to an armed clash on the Korean Peninsula and a calamity for the entire Korean people.

The commentary also said that the South Korean government's description of the North as the "enemy" in its 2010 defense white paper, released earlier this week, is virtually a "declaration of war" on the same Korean people living north of the border.

"Even a trifling incident on the Korean Peninsula can lead to a military clash and a full-scale war. The enemy description will never be tolerated, particularly at a time of heightened tensions like today," the commentary said.

Click to expand...

South Korea is willing to talk but...

From: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2010/12/29/72/0401000000AEN20101229004400315F.HTML

"S. Korea says it will press N. Korea to change behavior through dialogue

SEOUL, Dec. 29 (Yonhap) -- South Korea said Wednesday it will press North Korea next year to change its provocative behavior while being careful not to fall for another charm offensive by the communist neighbor.

In a report to the president ahead of the new year, the Unification Ministry said Seoul will seek dialogue with Pyongyang to resolve "crucial issues" -- a reference to nuclear arms and other inter-Korean political and humanitarian issues -- while maintaining measures aimed at punishing the North for its provocation.

The report came as President Lee Myung-bak said that stalled six-party talks are the only viable channel for denuclearizing Pyongyang, signaling his willingness to work toward the resumption of dialogue that also includes the U.S., China, Japan and Russia...

...Each of the deadly developments came after North Korea extended an olive branch to South Korea in an apparent bid to win aid, agreeing to talks and the resumption of brief reunions of families separated by war.

"A camouflaged peace offensive will be dealt with actively," the Unification Ministry report said, adding that the government will also protest harsh rhetoric critical of Seoul..."

Buried in this article about bureaucratic changes is the fact that the 5 islands are about to become very crowded.

From: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2010/12/29/76/0301000000AEN20101229005200315F.HTML

"S. Korea to create Joint Forces Command to beef up combat capability

SEOUL, Dec. 29 (Yonhap) -- The defense ministry said Wednesday it will create a top military command structure next year to enhance interoperability of its armed forces, a key part of its plans to improve combat capability against North Korea.

A four-star officer who will lead the new Joint Forces Command (JFC) is to wield more command authority than the current chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), the ministry said in a report to President Lee Myung-bak on its policy plans for next year.

Also, a total of eight operational commands in the Army, Navy and Air Force will be streamlined into three commands, one for each military branch, to improve efficiency in their joint operations, ministry officials said.

Currently, there are five operational commands in the Army, two in the Navy, which includes the Marine Corps, and one in the Air Force.

In South Korea, the JCS chairman has operational control over all military branches but no power to manage military personnel. The lack of authority in personnel management has been cited as one major factor hindering interoperability of the troops.

Officials said the JFC commander will not only have operational command but also the responsibility for managing military personnel of the three armed services.

"The most important task for next year is to reform the top military command structure," a senior ministry official said on the condition of anonymity.

The ministry also aims to "thoroughly cope with all possible provocations from North Korea" and "nurture armed forces that get ready to fight and win," the official said...

...Any change in the top command structure needs parliamentary approval. If endorsed, it will mark the first reorganization of the top command system in 23 years, the official said...


...To beef up its guard against North Korea on border islands in the Yellow Sea, the ministry also plans to establish a new command structure there. The division-sized command would increase the number of troops stationed on the five islands to 12,000 from the current 5,000.

In addition, the ministry plans to swiftly turn the five islands, including Yeonpyeong, into military fortresses as President Lee ordered earlier this month.

The government-run Institute for National Security Strategy warned this week that North Korea may escalate the ferocity of its military aggression next year by invading one of the Yellow Sea islands."

China Connection said:

Yep, sometime this month they will attack and it will be an all out attack. I expect to see that North Korea has better gear than expected also. Russia and China both back them.




.

Click to expand...

So do you mean in the next three days, or in the next 30 days?

Could happen at any time from now on. During the second and third week in January would be my pick for time. I meant any time in January.






.

Originally posted by Catbird....

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showpost.php?p=3939450&postcount=247

A little OT, as it concerns Japan and China, but definitely part of the bigger picture.

From: http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201012270245.html

"China ratcheting up pressure in the air

BY YOICHI KATO NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT

2010/12/28

Japanese officials, already concerned about China's growing naval presence in the region, say Chinese military aircraft have started harassing Japanese Self-Defense Forces' aircraft over the East China Sea.

Ever since the September collision between a Chinese trawler and two Japan Coast Guard vessels near the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, Chinese military aircraft have started to approach SDF aircraft close enough to identify with the naked eye, sources said.

Along with this new behavior since October, China's air activities against Japan have been substantially stepped up since earlier this year. The number of scrambles that the Air SDF has launched against Chinese aircraft since the beginning of this fiscal year had already reached 44 as of Dec. 22, according to the Defense Ministry.

The figure is the highest in the past five years.

The Maritime SDF has been deploying EP-3 signal intelligence reconnaissance aircraft on top of P-3C patrol aircraft to the airspace northwest of the Nansei island chain on an almost daily basis to monitor Chinese air and naval activities in the area.

The Air SDF routinely intercepts electronic signals with its signal intelligence aircraft...........

Click to expand...

Who else remembers the incidents during the Cold War between Western and ComBloc aircraft over the Baltic, Arctic, Black Sea and the Pacific where "accidents" resulted in lost aircraft and aircrews as well as actual interceptions and shoot downs?

With the manner in which the PLA/PLAN/PLAAF is pushing things, it won't be too long I'm afraid before something goes loud. Heck the Turks and Greeks had a mid-air due to this sort of stuff this last August.

I can easily see a confrontation between JASDF F-15Js and PLAAF J-11s/Su-27s going stupid.

Housecarl said:

Originally posted by Catbird....



Who else remembers the incidents during the Cold War between Western and ComBloc aircraft over the Baltic, Arctic, Black Sea and the Pacific where "accidents" resulted in lost aircraft and aircrews as well as actual interceptions and shoot downs?

With the manner in which the PLA/PLAN/PLAAF is pushing things, it won't be too long I'm afraid before something goes loud. Heck the Turks and Greeks had a mid-air due to this sort of stuff this last August.

I can easily see a confrontation between JASDF F-15Js and PLAAF J-11s/Su-27s going stupid.

Click to expand...

I was thinking about that also. Mid-air games of chicken. Odds are, sooner or later, there will be an incident of some kind. Russia is also playing around north of Japan - they got a little close a few times to the Keen Sword exercise. The exercise was halted and JDF scrambled a couple of fighters until the Russians moved.

It's getting to be some crowded airspace in that region of the Pacific.

Never let it be said that you can't have a good time in North Korea. I wonder if Expedia books for this ?

From: http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?biid=2010122973148

"NK casino reopens after Kim Jong Il’s Beijing visit

DECEMBER 29, 2010 11:04

A casino in the North Korean coastal city of Rason (formerly Rajin and Sonbong) that helps the North earn foreign currency officially resumed operations two months ago, a Chinese source said Monday.

China is known to have allowed its nationals to visit the casino, whose main customers are Chinese.

“Rason Casino is openly doing business and 30 to 40 customers visit every day,” the source based in Hunchun in the Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture of China’s Jilin province said Monday. “You can get a tourist visa for North Korea in a day in Yanji (China), which makes visiting a lot easier.”

In addition to those from Korean autonomous prefectures such as Yanji, casino patrons also hail from Harbin, Shenyang and Changchun in northeastern China. They arrive in Yanji, go through the Hunchun customs office 90 minutes away by car, and enter the North Korean village of Wonjong-ri.

They then travel for another 90 minutes by car to the casino. In Wonjong-ri, taxis wait for Chinese visitors who enter the North on foot.

The reopening of the casino was apparently possible thanks to China’s tolerance or cooperation. Formerly known as “Emperor Casino,” the facility was opened by Hong Kong Emperor Group in 2000 and closed at the end of 2004, when a Chinese official from a Korean autonomous prefecture was found to have gambled away a huge sum of public funds at the casino.

Beijing cracked down on gamblers and stopped its nationals from entering the North, and urged Pyongyang to close the casino. Back then, Chinese media reported that the casino earned at least 1 billion yuan (151 million U.S. dollars) per year.

The casino operator is reportedly based in Hong Kong, and probably Emperor Group.

Operations at the casino conspicuously resumed after August, when North Korean leader Kim Jong Il visited Beijing and Chinese President Hu Jintao agreed on the development of Rason.

Another source said, however, “In fact, the casino secretly resumed operations a year ago. It now openly attracts customers.”

Approximately 15 minutes away from downtown Rajin by car, the casino is also known to house a five-star hotel, room salons (high-class hostess bars), luxury restaurants and saunas. The source said, “Room salons have as hostesses young Russian, Chinese and North Korean women. Prostitution occurs openly.”"

I guess this is what happens when you let the DPRK slap you around for years on end . . .

CMN survey: In S. Korea, Defense Ministry viewed by public as most inept, arrogant & corrupt gov't agency. 11 minutes ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®

http://twitter.com/w7voa

Considering that in the DPRK, the "rich people" are usually prominent in the party apparatus, I wonder if they know something that the more common folks don't yet.

From: http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk01500&num=7191

"The Rich Hoarding Rice

By Yoo Gwan Hee
[2010-12-29 17:10 ]

Even though the price of rice is over 1,300 won per kilogram in North Korean markets, cadres and the upper class are hoarding rice and grain. This is because a rumor is spreading saying that the international community may suspend food aid to North Korea next year due to the Yeonpyeong attack so the price of rice may not drop next year.

A source from Hoiryeong, North Hamkyung Province, said that, “In the Hoiryeong Jangmadang, rice sells over for 1,300 won per kilogram. Even though it is an unreasonably higher price than in previous years, the wealthy are hoarding the rice they will consume for the next year.”

Immediately after the Yeonpyeong attack, the price of rice soared to over 1,300 won and has stayed at that level. This is because the value of the Yuan has gone up since the currency redenomination last year.

The source explained, “Despite the high price of rice, people purchase it in bulk because they believe that next year the price may not decline considering the current trend.” He added, “A rumor that we won’t receive food aid next year due to being internationally isolated has been circulated by those who get international and domestic information via foreign radio or those who have visited China for private reasons.”

The source reported that, “Based on the experiences of the last decade, people know very well that there will be no food aid from the outside world when the situation is tense like it is this year.”

“Not only those who support themselves through commerce, but also family members of officials of the National Security Agency and People’s Safety Ministry, who primarily live off the national distribution system, are spending all the money they've saved to buy up food. They buy reserve provisions in order not to worry about a possible suspension of the distribution system.”

According to the explanation of the source, at the time of the November 30 currency redenomination last year, those who had goods to trade did not get hit hard. Therefore, wealthy people try to obtain more food despite the high price.

Ah, found the exchange. $10 US for a kg of rice wow!



1,300 North Korean Won (KPW) = 9.62963 US Dollar (USD)

.................................................................................................
So a years wages for a family for about 24kg of rice.

estimates in 2003 were about 24,000 North Korean won per year for a family, but there is no conversion rate between US dollars and NK won, so no information is really available.
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1,300.00 KRW = 1.13982 USD view KRW/USD chart
South Korea Won United States Dollars

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2010/12/30/0200000000AEN20101230003600315.HTML

The white paper confirmed for the first time that North Korea deployed its new battle tank, named "Pokpung-ho," which in Korean means "Storm Tiger," and is believed to have been developed in the 1990s based on the Soviet Union's T-72 tanks.

The North's new tank is presumed to be equipped with either a 125- or 115-millimeter main gun, similar to that of the T-50 battle tank of the Russian Army, defense ministry officials said.

The paper didn't say how many of the new tanks North Korea has "deployed for operational use," but said the number of North Korean tanks rose to some 4,100 units as of November this year, from 3,900 in 2008.

Also, the paper said the number of lightly equipped North Korean special forces, who are trained to quickly intrude South Korea, increased to 200,000 from 180,000.

Overall, the total number of North Korean soldiers remained unchanged at about 1.19 million, but the North has reorganized its military to add four new divisions, the paper said.

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North Korea is "presumed to have secured about 40 kilograms" of weapons-grade plutonium by reprocessing spent nuclear fuel rods four times by 2009, the paper said.

Concerns about the North's nuclear weapons program deepened last month when Pyongyang, which conducted two nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009, revealed a uranium enrichment facility to a visiting U.S. scientist. The uranium enrichment program could give the North a second route to build a nuclear bomb.

"Given that North Korea claimed that some 2,000 centrifuges are operational in November 2010, the North is presumed to have pushed for the highly enriched uranium (HEU) program," the paper said.

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DPRK may be preparing for their next move....

http://world.kbs.co.kr/english/news/news_IK_detail.htm?No=78338

The group Good Friends says the North's Workers' Party announced in late October that it would stop the rice collections from farmers but withdrew the plan due to a worsening food shortage.

The group says that this month saw an increased number of North Korean military bases collect rice to feed soldiers.

Good Friends also says Pyongyang has ordered provincial authorities to put top priority on securing food for the military.

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This article came out a couple of weeks back. It indicates that the rice harvest was good. So the food is going somewhere.

From: http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk01500&num=7155

"Higher Yields and Lower Distribution

By Shin Joo Hyun and Kang Mi Jin
[2010-12-17 16:03 ]

Even though some of North Korea’s farmland including much around Shinuiju was flooded this year, in other provinces food production has been greater than in previous years, according to sources.

One source from South Pyongyang Province told The Daily NK yesterday, “There have been heavy rains and rivers overflowing in some places this year, but the rice crop is better than last year’s. It seems to be thanks to imported fertilizer from China.”

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Food Program (WFP) also reported last month that North Korea’s grains yields had increased by 3 percent over last year, to 4.48 million tons in total.

The source explained, “In April and May this year fertilizer came just in time, so it helped with the farming. Since the situation in that period decides the number of ears of grain, if you don’t provide fertilizer production can be halved.”

Another source from Yangkang Province agreed, saying, “This year in the jangmadang in Hyesan, 50 kilos of fertilizer was selling for 220 Yuan. The price was quite expensive, but people used it even on their private fields because it was so beneficial for production.”

However, the source said angrily, “Even though farming was better than last year, the year’s distribution for farmers was a mere 30kg of rice and 50kg of corn, 20kg of rice and 30kg of corn short of last year’s distribution. So farmers complained about it but the only answer was ‘more food should go to the military’. They were lost for words.”

The source said, “The authorities keep reiterating that thanks to the Youth Captain we will live better in the future, but then give us less distribution; who would believe this? Does this not mean that the Youth Captain will also try only to feed the military?”

He added, “In the end, the vicious circle where farmers on collective farms steal rice from the farm continues. Farm cadres have already siphoned off what they want, and then farmers also do that in groups.”

The source explained, “Due to the lack of electricity and frequent machinery failures, the threshing is still going on now. Military trucks are always waiting by the threshing location, and as soon as it is done, the rice goes to military bases.”

Furthermore, he added, “Rice provided for the military is also stolen by high officials, so normal soldiers are provided only with corn.” "