WEATHER Hurricane Earl hasn't yet made the predicted turn: East Coast keep an eye!

Didn't see a thread. Our locals news is saying this one isn't following predictions as of yet. The turn to the wnw, and then nm has yet to happen. If it goes further west than it is now and then begins the turn, it will effect the coast somewhere. Just keep an eye on it.

AS OF 8:00 ADVISORY, EARL IS NOW UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE @ 75 MPH.

Issued at: 4:38 AM AST 8/29/10 (gateway).


Earl headed for the northern leeward islands, expected to become a hurricane later today,

Summary of 500 am ast, 0900 utc, information ---------------------------------------------- location, 16.9n 56.9w about 420 mi, 675 km e of the northern leeward islands maximum sustained winds, 65 mph, 100 km/hr present movement, w or 280 degrees at 18 mph, 30 km/hr minimum central pressure, 989 mb, 29.21 inches

Watches and warnings -------------------- changes with this advisory,

The government of the netherlands antilles has issued a hurricane warning for the islands of st. Maarten, saba and st. Eustatius.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect,

A hurricane warning is in effect for, antigua, barbuda, montserrat, st. Kitts, nevis, and anguilla saint martin and saint barthelemy st. Maarten, saba and st. Eustatius

A hurricane watch is in effect for, british Virgin Islands u.s. Virgin Islands puerto rico including the islands of culebra and vieques

Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area beginning within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the united states, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local national weather service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the united states, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook ------------------------------ at 500 am ast, 0900 utc, the center of tropical storm earl was located near latitude 16.9 north, longitude 56.9 west. Earl is moving toward the west near 18 mph, 30 km/hr. A turn toward the west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected in the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of earl will pass near or over the northern leeward islands Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph, 100 km/hr, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and earl is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles, 260 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb, 29.21 inches.

Hazards affecting land ---------------------- wind, tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area by late Sunday, with hurricane conditions expected by early Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions may spread over the virgin islands and Puerto Rico on Monday, with hurricane conditions possible Monday night.

Storm surge, storm surge will raise water levels 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the warning area near and to the right of the path of the center of earl. The surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves.

Rainfall, earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over much of the northern leeward islands, with possible maximum isolated amounts of 8 inches.

Next advisory ------------- next intermediate advisory, 800 am ast. Next complete advisory, 1100 am ast.


FROM JustNews:

More weather:
http://www.justnews.com/tu/5SlbFBeUN.html

Tracking Map
http://maps.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201007.html

Satellite
http://maps.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201007_sat.html#a_topad

This is the predicted turn, but it is moving more to the west before turning.

It was predicted that Earl would not effect the Leewards. Warnings issued now!

Issued at: 10:55 AM AST 8/29/10 (gateway).


Earl expected to strengthen as it heads toward the northern leeward islands,

Summary of 1100 am ast, 1500 utc, information ----------------------------------------------- location, 17.2n 58.4w about 225 mi, 360 km e of antigua about 315 mi, 510 km e of st. Martin maximum sustained winds, 75 mph, 120 km/hr present movement, w or 280 degrees at 17 mph, 28 km/hr minimum central pressure, 985 mb, 29.09 inches

Watches and warnings -------------------- changes with this advisory,

A tropical storm warning has been issued for the u.s. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, including the islands of culebra and vieques. A hurricane watch is also in effect for these areas.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect,

A hurricane warning is in effect for, antigua, barbuda, montserrat, st. Kitts, nevis, and anguilla saint martin and saint barthelemy st. Maarten, saba, and st. Eustatius

A hurricane watch is in effect for, british Virgin Islands u.s. Virgin Islands puerto rico including the islands of culebra and vieques

A tropical storm warning is in effect for, british Virgin Islands u.s. Virgin Islands puerto rico including the islands of culebra and vieques

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 36 hours.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the united states, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local national weather service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the united states, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook ------------------------------ at 1100 am ast, 1500 utc, the center of hurricane earl was located near latitude 17.2 north, longitude 58.4 west. Earl is moving toward the west near 17 mph, 28 km/hr. A turn toward the west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of earl will pass near or over the northern leeward islands tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph, 120 km/hr, with higher gusts. Earl is a category one hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane wind scale. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours and earl is forecast to become a major hurricane by tuesday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles, 45 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles, 260 km.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by air force hurricane hunter aircraft is 985 mb, 29.09 inches.

Hazards affecting land ---------------------- wind, tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area later today, with hurricane conditions expected by early Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday, with hurricane conditions possible Monday night.

Storm surge, storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level primarily near the coast in areas of onshore wind within the warning area. The surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves.

Rainfall, earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over much of the northern leeward islands, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over puerto rico, with i

Issued at: 1:46 PM AST 8/29/10 (gateway).


Outer rainbands of earl approaching the islands of antigua and barbuda,

Summary of 200 pm ast, 1800 utc, information ---------------------------------------------- location, 17.4n 58.9w about 190 mi, 310 km e of antigua about 280 mi, 450 km e of st. Martin maximum sustained winds, 75 mph, 120 km/hr present movement, wnw or 285 degrees at 15 mph, 24 km/hr minimum central pressure, 978 mb, 28.88 inches

Watches and warnings -------------------- changes with this advisory,

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect,

A hurricane warning is in effect for, antigua, barbuda, montserrat, st. Kitts, nevis, and anguilla saint martin and saint barthelemy st. Maarten, saba, and st. Eustatius

A hurricane watch is in effect for, british Virgin Islands u.s. Virgin Islands puerto rico including the islands of culebra and vieques

A tropical storm warning is in effect for, british Virgin Islands u.s. Virgin Islands puerto rico including the islands of culebra and vieques

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the united states, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local national weather service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the united states, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook ------------------------------ at 200 pm ast, 1800 utc, the center of hurricane earl was located by a hurricane hunter aircraft near latitude 17.4 north, longitude 58.9 west. Earl is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph, 24 km/hr. A west-northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of earl will pass near or over the northern leeward islands tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph, 120 km/hr, with higher gusts. Earl is a category one hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane wind scale. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours and earl is forecast to become a major hurricane by tuesday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles, 45 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles, 260 km.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by air force hurricane hunter aircraft is 978 mb, 28.88 inches.

Hazards affecting land ---------------------- wind, tropical storm conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area later today, with hurricane conditions expected by early Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday, with hurricane conditions possible Monday night.

Storm surge, storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level primarily near the coast in areas of onshore wind within the warning area. The surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves.

Rainfall, earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over much of the northern leeward islands, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are expected over Puerto Rico, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible over higher elevations. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Next advisory ------------- next complete advisory, 500 pm ast.

Those models for Earl look correct and have stayed on par to everything I have read at Accuweather. Right now Earl is to be about 200 miles east of the Chesapeake and then move out to sea. There are some models that indicate that we could see Earl not moving northward and heading into the Outerbanks.
From the time Fiona developed models have indicated that by Labor day weekend we could see her develop into a strong cate 3 hurricane potentially 4 striking the northern Miami area.
Fiona in the real storm that needs to be watched and could be a a once in a decade storm. Conditions are right to keep this storm on track westward and in water temps around 86 degree will no doubt keep it fueled.

Storms like these always worth close observation.

Finally beginning to turn--wnw. Now 85 mph.

Issued at: 4:46 PM AST 8/29/10 (gateway).


Earl strengthens, heading toward the northernmost leeward islands, conditions deteriorating soon,

Summary of 500 pm ast, 2100 utc, information ---------------------------------------------- location, 17.6n 59.5w about 150 mi, 245 km e of barbuda about 240 mi, 385 km e of st. Martin maximum sustained winds, 85 mph, 140 km/hr present movement, wnw or 285 degrees at 14 mph, 22 km/hr minimum central pressure, 978 mb, 28.88 inches

Watches and warnings -------------------- changes with this advisory,

The government of antigua and barbuda has issued a hurricane warning for the british Virgin Islands.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect,

A hurricane warning is in effect for, antigua, barbuda, montserrat, st. Kitts, nevis, and anguilla saint martin and saint barthelemy st. Maarten, saba, and st. Eustatius british Virgin Islands

A hurricane watch is in effect for, u.s. Virgin Islands puerto rico including the islands of culebra and vieques

A tropical storm warning is in effect for, u.s. Virgin Islands puerto rico including the islands of culebra and vieques

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be nearing completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the united states, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local national weather service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the united states, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook ------------------------------ at 500 pm ast, 2100 utc, the center of hurricane earl was located near latitude 17.6 north, longitude 59.5 west. Earl is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph, 22 km/hr, this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest is forecast Monday night or Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of earl will pass near or over the northernmost leeward islands tonight and monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased are near 85 mph, 140 km/hr, with higher gusts. Earl is a category one hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane wind scale. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours and earl is forecast to become a major hurricane on Monday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles, 75 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles, 280 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb, 28.88 inches.

Hazards affecting land ---------------------- wind, tropical storm conditions will begin to spread into the hurricane warning area during the next few hours, and hurricane conditions are expected to spread into the hurricane warning area by Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over the u.s. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday, with hurricane conditions possible Monday night.

Storm surge, storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level primarily near the coast in areas of onshore wind within the hurricane warning area, and 1 to 3 feet in the tropical storm warning area. The surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves.

Rainfall, earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over much of the northern leeward islands, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are expected over Puerto Rico, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches

I would take about 4 inches of that rain about now. It's mighty dry up here in Maine.
Wells are going dry and it's getting pretty serious at that point.

We have neighbors who live on the coast, (almost) and have a big cabin up here. There drilled well went dry. And it's down 125 ft. That's amazing considering they live on a freaking lake! So now they are pumping water from the lake to the house for flushing and stuff.

Wise Owl said:

I would take about 4 inches of that rain about now. It's mighty dry up here in Maine.
Wells are going dry and it's getting pretty serious at that point.

We have neighbors who live on the coast, (almost) and have a big cabin up here. There drilled well went dry. And it's down 125 ft. That's amazing considering they live on a freaking lake! So now they are pumping water from the lake to the house for flushing and stuff.

Click to expand...

Just maybe it'll come by you, weakened and totally beneficial. If not this one, Wise Owl, the next.

We need rain, too. The rainy season never happened this year.

My sons, Eric 22 Paramedic, and Logan 21,
are on Puerto Rico getting ready for the storm.

Will update here if anything interesting.

- Shane

shane said:

My sons, Eric 22 Paramedic, and Logan 21,
are on Puerto Rico getting ready for the storm.

Will update here if anything interesting.

- Shane

Click to expand...

Hopefully it will pass far enough to the north of where they are, Shane!

Looks like it will.

I hope the projected models hold true. If Earl veers more westerly, it could be very bad for anywhere along the eastern seaboard ......

Hope you sons stay safe, Shane!!

Issued at: 7:52 PM AST 8/29/10 (gateway).


Earl heading for northernmost leeward islands,

Summary of 800 pm ast, 0000 utc, information ---------------------------------------------- location, 17.7n 60.3w about 100 mi, 160 km e of barbuda about 185 mi, 300 km e of st. Martin maximum sustained winds, 85 mph, 140 km/hr present movement, wnw or 285 degrees at 14 mph, 22 km/hr minimum central pressure, 972 mb, 28.70 inches

Watches and warnings -------------------- changes with this advisory,

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect,

A hurricane warning is in effect for, antigua, barbuda, montserrat, st. Kitts, nevis, and anguilla saint martin and saint barthelemy st. Maarten, saba, and st. Eustatius british Virgin Islands

A hurricane watch is in effect for, u.s. Virgin Islands puerto rico including the islands of culebra and vieques

A tropical storm warning is in effect for, u.s. Virgin Islands puerto rico including the islands of culebra and vieques

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be nearing completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the united states, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local national weather service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the united states, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook ------------------------------ at 800 pm ast, 0000 utc, the center of hurricane earl was located near latitude 17.7 north, longitude 60.3 west. Earl is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph, 22 km/hr, and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest is forecast Monday night or Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of earl will pass near or over the northernmost leeward islands tonight and monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph, 140 km/hr, with higher gusts. Earl is a category one hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane wind scale. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours and earl is forecast to become a major hurricane on Monday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles, 75 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles, 280 km.

The minimum central pressure reported by an air force reserve unit hurricane hunter plane is 972 mb, 28.70 inches.

Hazards affecting land ---------------------- wind, tropical storm conditions will begin to spread into the hurricane warning area during the next few hours, and hurricane conditions are expected to spread into the hurricane warning area by Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over the u.s. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday, with hurricane conditions possible Monday night.

Storm surge, storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level primarily near the coast in areas of onshore wind within the hurricane warning area, and 1 to 3 feet in the tropical storm warning area. The surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves.

Rainfall, earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over much of the northern leeward islands, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are expected over Puerto Rico, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible over higher elevations. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

105 mph

Issued at: 4:37 AM AST 8/30/10 (gateway).


Earl moving across the northern leeward islands, hurricane warning issued for the u.s. Virgin Islands,

Summary of 500 am ast, 0900 utc, information ---------------------------------------------- location, 18.3n 62.4w about 50 mi, 75 km ene of st. Martin about 170 mi, 275 km e of st. Thomas maximum sustained winds, 105 mph, 165 km/hr present movement, wnw or 285 degrees at 15 mph, 24 km/hr minimum central pressure, 969 mb, 28.61 inches

Watches and warnings -------------------- changes with this advisory,

A hurricane warning has been issued for the u.s. Virgin Islands.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect,

A hurricane warning is in effect for, antigua, barbuda, montserrat, st. Kitts, nevis, and anguilla saint martin and saint barthelemy st. Maarten, saba, and st. Eustatius british Virgin Islands u.s. Virgin Islands

A hurricane watch is in effect for, puerto rico including the islands of culebra and vieques

A tropical storm warning is in effect for, puerto rico including the islands of culebra and vieques

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the united states including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local national weather service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the united states, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook ------------------------------ at 500 am ast, 0900 utc, the center of hurricane earl was located near latitude 18.3 north, longitude 62.4 west. Earl is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph, 24 km/hr. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of earl will pass near or over the northernmost leeward islands this morning, and near the Virgin Islands this afternoon and this evening.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph, 165 km/hr with higher gusts. Earl is a category two hurricane on the saffir-simpson scale. Additional strengthening is forecast, and earl is expected to become a major hurricane by tonight or early tuesday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles, 85 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles, 280 km.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb, 28.61 inches.

Hazards affecting land ---------------------- wind, hurricane conditions are now spreading into the northern leeward islands, and will spread westward into the Virgin Islands later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over puerto rico today, with hurricane conditions possible this evening and tonight.

Storm surge, storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level primarily near the coast in areas of onshore wind within the hurricane warning area, and 1 to 3 feet in the tropical storm warning area. The surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves.

Rainfall, earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the leeward islands, the Virgin Islands and puerto rico, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, especially over higher elevations. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Next advisory ------------- next intermediate advisory, 800 am ast. Next complete advisory, 1100 am ast.


FROM JustNews:

More weather:
http://www.justnews.com/tu/5SmHUrpdz.html

110 mph

Issued at: 7:47 AM AST 8/30/10 (gateway).


Earl continues to strengthen as it moves across the northern leeward islands,

Summary of 800 am ast, 1200 utc, information ---------------------------------------------- location, 18.4n 62.9w about 25 mi, 40 km nne of st. Martin about 140 mi, 220 km e of st. Thomas maximum sustained winds, 110 mph, 175 km/hr present movement, wnw or 285 degrees at 14 mph, 22 km/hr minimum central pressure, 965 mb, 28.50 inches

Watches and warnings -------------------- changes with this advisory,

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect,

A hurricane warning is in effect for, antigua, barbuda, montserrat, st. Kitts, nevis, and anguilla saint martin and saint barthelemy st. Maarten, saba, and st. Eustatius british Virgin Islands u.s. Virgin Islands

A hurricane watch is in effect for, puerto rico including the islands of culebra and vieques

A tropical storm warning is in effect for, puerto rico including the islands of culebra and vieques

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the united states, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local national weather service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the united states, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook ------------------------------ at 800 am ast, 1200 utc, the center of hurricane earl was located near latitude 18.4 north, longitude 62.9 west. Earl is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph, 22 km/hr. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of earl will pass near or over the northernmost leeward islands this morning, and near the Virgin Islands this afternoon and this evening.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph, 175 km/hr with higher gusts. Earl is a category two hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane wind scale. Additional strengthening is forecast, and earl is expected to become a major hurricane later today.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles, 85 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles, 280 km. St. Maarten recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph, 67 km/hr with a gust to 61 mph, 98 km/hr.

The latest minimum central pressure reported from a noaa hurricane hunter aircraft is 965 mb, 28.50 inches.

Hazards affecting land ---------------------- wind, hurricane conditions are now spreading across the northern leeward islands, and will spread westward into the Virgin Islands later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over puerto rico today, with hurricane conditions possible this evening and tonight.

Storm surge, storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level primarily near the coast in areas of onshore wind within the hurricane warning area, and 1 to 3 feet in the tropical storm warning area. The surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves.

Rainfall, earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the leeward islands, the Virgin Islands and puerto rico, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, especially over higher elevations. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Next advisory ------------- next complete advisory, 1100 am ast.

Interesting....looks like Korea will be hit with a storm this week as Earl threatens the East coast:

Time to keep a weather eye up here. - BG

Cat 3 Earl

000
WTNT32 KNHC 301445
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 63.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM. ST. MAARTEN REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 68 MPH...109
KM/HR WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN
PUERTO RICO.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO
5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...100 PM AST AND 300 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/301445.shtml

Border guard said:

Time to keep a weather eye up here. - BG

Click to expand...

Got a wedding to attend on Thursday in Newport RI; staying through Friday...

High pressure is building over Georgia. May alter the course won't know till Wednesday.

Looks like the NY Islands could get smacked.

one can always hope...

Jonas Parker said:

one can always hope...

Click to expand...

Problem is though that the 'ruling class' will be able to get the heck out of dodge in case of a hurricane and the innocents will be the ones that will do most of the suffering.

Perhaps, with the gulf stream broken, these gulf forecasted caines will be hitting the east coast more often now. ??

Army Girl said:

Perhaps, with the gulf stream broken, these gulf forecasted caines will be hitting the east coast more often now. ??

Click to expand...

I was thinking along those same lines Army Girl. Also, I think this thread goes great with your thread...

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=368914

about Global Warming being dead and the shifts/changes in global currents

and the one about the effects of the oil spill...

Mike

oh-oh.

# Earl becomes Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds - National Hurricane Center http://bit.ly/9K2YIG less than 20 seconds ago via breakingnews.com

# Tropical Storm Fiona forms in deep Atlantic, follows behind growing Hurricane Earl - National Hurricane Center http://bit.ly/aoY8TU 17 minutes ago via breakingnews.com

Army Girl said:

Perhaps, with the gulf stream broken, these gulf forecasted caines will be hitting the east coast more often now. ??

Click to expand...

Must be Bush's fault....

Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN3018974320100830

Hurricane Earl gains steam, upgraded to Category 4
MIAMI | Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:55pm EDT

MIAMI Aug 30 (Reuters) - Hurricane Earl strengthened into a Category 4 storm on Monday as it moved across Atlantic waters northeast of Puerto Rico, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

The Miami-based center said Earl, the second major hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic season, was packing top sustained winds of close to 135 miles per hour (215 kph). (Editing by Pascal Fletcher)

mzkitty said:

oh-oh.

# Earl becomes Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds - National Hurricane Center http://bit.ly/9K2YIG less than 20 seconds ago via breakingnews.com

# Tropical Storm Fiona forms in deep Atlantic, follows behind growing Hurricane Earl - National Hurricane Center http://bit.ly/aoY8TU 17 minutes ago via breakingnews.com

Click to expand...

It was predicted to hit 4, but I thought not until tomorrow. It has a lot of warm water ahead of it, wonder if it will make it to 5?

I'm in San Juan Puerto Rico right now. So far we're getting fairly high sustained winds and some rain but the worst is still on it's way. Sure glad that we're not in the path. The last I heard Earl was tracking about 95 miles to the north.

I'm on the 20th floor of a beachfront high rise and the view was pretty good until it just got dark. The people here apparently like to party when these things come through -- the hotel was giving away free drinks downstairs.

Anyway, it can't be too bad yet as I still have high speed wireless internet

hoss

Our local weather guys just quipped that if this system gets really strong, the steering currents in the upper atmosphere won't have all the control.

I believe it will skirt the coast and maybe even bring some beneficial rain to all of us. But just keep an eye anyway.

Blessings to all!

Seabird

Spirit Of Truth said:

Got a wedding to attend on Thursday in Newport RI; staying through Friday...

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Make sure you keep you tank full and have plenty of food & water with you just in case.


.

Cat 4: 135 mph

Issued at: 6:53 PM AST 8/30/10 (gateway).


Earl continues moving away from the Virgin Islands,

Summary of 700 pm ast, 2300 utc, information ---------------------------------------------- location, 19.4n 65.1w about 95 mi, 155 km ne of san juan Puerto Rico maximum sustained winds, 135 mph, 215 km/hr present movement, wnw or 290 degrees at 15 mph, 24 km/hr minimum central pressure, 939 mb, 27.73 inches

Watches and warnings -------------------- changes with this advisory,

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect,

A tropical storm warning is in effect for, puerto rico, including the islands of culebra and vieques u.s. Virgin Islands british Virgin Islands turks and caicos islands

A tropical storm watch is in effect for, southeastern bahamas

For storm information specific to Puerto Rico and the u.s. Virgin islands, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by the san juan national weather service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the united states, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook ------------------------------ at 700 pm ast, 2300 utc, the center of hurricane earl was located near latitude 19.4 north, longitude 65.1 west. Earl is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph, 24 km/hr. This general motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of earl will move away from the Virgin Islands tonight and pass east of the turks and caicos islands on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph, 215 km/hr, with higher gusts. Earl is a category four hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane wind scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles, 110 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles, 325 km.

The minimum central pressure estimated from noaa hurricane hunter observations is 939 mb, 27.73 inches.

Hazards affecting land ---------------------- wind, tropical storm conditions will gradually subside over the british and u.s. Virgin Islands tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of Puerto Rico through tonight. Stronger winds, especially in gusts, are likely over elevated terrain in puerto rico. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin to spread into the turks and caicos islands Tuesday afternoon.

Storm surge, storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level primarily near the coast in areas of onshore wind over the british Virgin Islands, and 1 to 3 feet elsewhere in the warning area. The surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves.

Rainfall, earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the northern leeward islands, the virgin islands and Puerto Rico, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, especially over higher elevations. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Next advisory ------------- next intermediate advisory, 900 pm ast. Next complete advisory, 1100 pm ast.


FROM JustNews:

More weather:
http://www.justnews.com/tu/5SnBY9eLu.html

hoss said:

I'm in San Juan Puerto Rico right now. So far we're getting fairly high sustained winds and some rain but the worst is still on it's way. Sure glad that we're not in the path. The last I heard Earl was tracking about 95 miles to the north.

I'm on the 20th floor of a beachfront high rise and the view was pretty good until it just got dark. The people here apparently like to party when these things come through -- the hotel was giving away free drinks downstairs.

Anyway, it can't be too bad yet as I still have high speed wireless internet

hoss

Click to expand...

Wow Hoss, thanks to the field report, please keep us updated.

Storm continues to intensify. Sideways rain and strong winds. The tracks along the sliding door are filling with water -- probably halfway to the top. I will call the front desk if water actually starts to come into the room.

But don't get me wrong -- I am in no danger unless the storm makes a u-turn. I am glad though that I brought my Surefire with extra batteries just in case the power goes out. From what I am told the is the biggest issue down here since most of the utilities are still above ground.

It was a bit surreal though to go down to the lobby bar and people are partying it up. For some reason I was reminded of the movie Posiden Adventure just before the big wave hit