Going 'semi-postal'?
I'm cobbling this together from various reports too long to post as they are. I'll reference them & post snippets from a few though...
The outbreak of Marburg Fever which seems to have begun in Angola, Uige province), in late October is taking a very worrisome turn - maybe. First a basic review. Marburg Hemorrhgaic Fever is the 'nice' one of the five known filoviruses with a death rate of between 23-25%. A short synopsis of the disease, symptoms, what it does, etc. can be found here:
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/spb/.../marburg/qa.htm
We know no more about where it comes from & how outbreaks begin than we do of the other filoviruses. We learn of outbreaks when news invariably comes out of affected areas. It's grossly ironic that it's sporadically endemic in the really badly off areas of Africa.
This is the first time it's been seen in Angola - that's the 'wrong' part of the continent for that illness & couldn't have picked a worse place to make a reappearance. Angola has a population of 11 million & only 1200 doctors nation wide. Health care is almosty non-existent outside some of the larger cities & within those cities, I'm being charitable to say it's poor.
Currently, as of a few hours ago, ProMed is reporting 142 fatalities from 150 cases - yeah you read that right. That makes it a few increments worse than the nastiest known substrain of Ebola - Ebola Zaire Mayinga. Now it may not be entirely the 'fault' of the virus. Angola has an average life expectancy of 37:
***Life expectancy at birth:
total population: 36.79 years
male: 36.06 years***
female: 37.55 years (2004 est.)
http://www.odci.gov/cia/publication.../ao.html#People
That's one of the worst on the planet & implicates a lousy basic state of health for most. That may be contributing to the extreme death rate being seen. Lack of any surveillence infrastructure may also be contributing. It's my bet that plenty of cases are being missed due to no one reporting them. And certainly the experts in that part of the world are of that opinion. Most of the cases are being reported among young children & ProMed had this opinion on the possibilities there posted a few days ago:
http://www.promedmail.org/pls/prome...L_ID:1000,28540
***I suspect that the age distribution of cases in Angola will ultimately turn
out to have more of a behavioral basis, as opposed to biological. The most
common point source when a cluster of VHF is seen is the hospital. It is
not clear from the ProMED-mail listings how many of the children might have
been seen and potentially exposed at the same health facility. An outbreak
of Lassa fever in Sierra Leone in 2004 in which pediatric cases
predominated was ultimately thought to be linked to contaminated multi-dose
vials (2). If the hospital can reasonably be excluded, less obvious sources
need to be considered. Do children enter for play or work (even very young
children often help with family chores in sub-Saharan Africa) into caves
where bats, a leading reservoir candidate, roost? Do children find and eat
fruit that could be contaminated by bat guano? Sequence data, no doubt
forthcoming, should shed light on whether this appears to more of a point
source outbreak or multiple introductions, facilitating the generation of
hypotheses to be investigated.***
I saw reference, (which I can't back up at the moment), that often children in Angola are given injected meds because it's easier. If syringes, etc are reused after only rinsing, which is a comon practice in poor African nations; that might explain it at least partially as well.
Now this outbreak has been slowly simmering but if memory serves me right, this is fairly common with the filoviruses. A few cases brew up & take time to really 'take off'. Every report I've glanced at in the past few days is really hiking the numbers. I'm hoping, (& it's likely), that this is due to the urgent interest being shown to that country & this outbreak. Everybody & his dog is showing up to work this one. You'll see why in a minute.
It started in Uige province in the north of the country & some cases are being reported in Luanda now, the capitol city. These are reported to be cases which came INTO the city from Uige province, not cases which have transmitted within the city but I'm betting that's next. In total now, cases are being reported in 4 Angolan provinces. It gets 'better'. It's now crossed into the Democratic Republic of Congo. Furthermore, 9 people are in isolation in Italy after reported exposure to a case. Absolutely no details there & I'm trying. No clue as to where they might have been exposed, how they got to Italy, how they were spotted, what symptoms or how 'strong' suspicions of a filovirus might be or if this an excess of caution. Here's a potential guess. The Pope has been ill for over a week. It's possible missionaries in Angola due for a break chose to go to Rome rather than home? Hey, I know, left field country here but as Italy is the place to be for many of the world's Catholics right now, THIS is not what they need. 2 cases suspected in Portugal have been ruled out after testing. Testing is quite specific for this & results accurate.
I mentioned everyone is getting in on this one. Canada has sent a team & a mobile lab & we generally don't work filovirus outbreaks in terms of national level resources. Mind you, we've got the virus at our lab, have the reagent kits - this is an unfortunately timely way to confirm training & strengthen skills by our lab folks. The WHO & CDC are there & Doctors Without Borders have been from the word go. But only now are gloves, gowns, masks & vital necessaities such as these getting into the country.
Those who know the area & filoviruses are warning this is going to get bad, possibly very bad with possibly 2 more larger waves coming, especially if it 'takes off' in the capital. This appears to easily be heading towards the worst outbreak of a filovirus ever.
So do we need to worry? No. Here's why.
Filoviruses, (so far in humans), are transmitted ONLY by direct contact with body secretions & inhaling coughed up nasties. By the time the patient is at that point, you KNOW you've got something awful on your hands & are well protected with barrier gear. Family memebers generally form the next risk group as they care for the sick & when dead, manually, (literally), clean & prepare the body for burial. The other high risk route for infection is reusing syringes & needles which have simply been rinsed - automatic death sentence with a filovirus.
We do none of these things in the west & I imagine every flight from Africa is being scrutinized for ANYTHING. This is a disease where suspect cases are immediately quarantined & other passengers watched like hawks until the incubation period, (5-10 days for Marburg), is over. They err on the long side, usually going at least 2 weeks. Should we get a case here, we might see a few health care workers or family/friends who've cared for cases contract it but by then we'd know what we were dealing with & it would end there. But in Africa, man this is a hard hit.
This still bears very close watching.
I'm looking to see as well if they're looking at the virus itself to see if mutation has or is occurring. Like I said, that's a death rate at least triple the norm & that implies a whole lot of something...
I'm cobbling this together from various reports too long to post as they are. I'll reference them & post snippets from a few though...
The outbreak of Marburg Fever which seems to have begun in Angola, Uige province), in late October is taking a very worrisome turn - maybe. First a basic review. Marburg Hemorrhgaic Fever is the 'nice' one of the five known filoviruses with a death rate of between 23-25%. A short synopsis of the disease, symptoms, what it does, etc. can be found here:
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/spb/.../marburg/qa.htm
We know no more about where it comes from & how outbreaks begin than we do of the other filoviruses. We learn of outbreaks when news invariably comes out of affected areas. It's grossly ironic that it's sporadically endemic in the really badly off areas of Africa.
This is the first time it's been seen in Angola - that's the 'wrong' part of the continent for that illness & couldn't have picked a worse place to make a reappearance. Angola has a population of 11 million & only 1200 doctors nation wide. Health care is almosty non-existent outside some of the larger cities & within those cities, I'm being charitable to say it's poor.
Currently, as of a few hours ago, ProMed is reporting 142 fatalities from 150 cases - yeah you read that right. That makes it a few increments worse than the nastiest known substrain of Ebola - Ebola Zaire Mayinga. Now it may not be entirely the 'fault' of the virus. Angola has an average life expectancy of 37:
***Life expectancy at birth:
total population: 36.79 years
male: 36.06 years***
female: 37.55 years (2004 est.)
http://www.odci.gov/cia/publication.../ao.html#People
That's one of the worst on the planet & implicates a lousy basic state of health for most. That may be contributing to the extreme death rate being seen. Lack of any surveillence infrastructure may also be contributing. It's my bet that plenty of cases are being missed due to no one reporting them. And certainly the experts in that part of the world are of that opinion. Most of the cases are being reported among young children & ProMed had this opinion on the possibilities there posted a few days ago:
http://www.promedmail.org/pls/prome...L_ID:1000,28540
***I suspect that the age distribution of cases in Angola will ultimately turn
out to have more of a behavioral basis, as opposed to biological. The most
common point source when a cluster of VHF is seen is the hospital. It is
not clear from the ProMED-mail listings how many of the children might have
been seen and potentially exposed at the same health facility. An outbreak
of Lassa fever in Sierra Leone in 2004 in which pediatric cases
predominated was ultimately thought to be linked to contaminated multi-dose
vials (2). If the hospital can reasonably be excluded, less obvious sources
need to be considered. Do children enter for play or work (even very young
children often help with family chores in sub-Saharan Africa) into caves
where bats, a leading reservoir candidate, roost? Do children find and eat
fruit that could be contaminated by bat guano? Sequence data, no doubt
forthcoming, should shed light on whether this appears to more of a point
source outbreak or multiple introductions, facilitating the generation of
hypotheses to be investigated.***
I saw reference, (which I can't back up at the moment), that often children in Angola are given injected meds because it's easier. If syringes, etc are reused after only rinsing, which is a comon practice in poor African nations; that might explain it at least partially as well.
Now this outbreak has been slowly simmering but if memory serves me right, this is fairly common with the filoviruses. A few cases brew up & take time to really 'take off'. Every report I've glanced at in the past few days is really hiking the numbers. I'm hoping, (& it's likely), that this is due to the urgent interest being shown to that country & this outbreak. Everybody & his dog is showing up to work this one. You'll see why in a minute.
It started in Uige province in the north of the country & some cases are being reported in Luanda now, the capitol city. These are reported to be cases which came INTO the city from Uige province, not cases which have transmitted within the city but I'm betting that's next. In total now, cases are being reported in 4 Angolan provinces. It gets 'better'. It's now crossed into the Democratic Republic of Congo. Furthermore, 9 people are in isolation in Italy after reported exposure to a case. Absolutely no details there & I'm trying. No clue as to where they might have been exposed, how they got to Italy, how they were spotted, what symptoms or how 'strong' suspicions of a filovirus might be or if this an excess of caution. Here's a potential guess. The Pope has been ill for over a week. It's possible missionaries in Angola due for a break chose to go to Rome rather than home? Hey, I know, left field country here but as Italy is the place to be for many of the world's Catholics right now, THIS is not what they need. 2 cases suspected in Portugal have been ruled out after testing. Testing is quite specific for this & results accurate.
I mentioned everyone is getting in on this one. Canada has sent a team & a mobile lab & we generally don't work filovirus outbreaks in terms of national level resources. Mind you, we've got the virus at our lab, have the reagent kits - this is an unfortunately timely way to confirm training & strengthen skills by our lab folks. The WHO & CDC are there & Doctors Without Borders have been from the word go. But only now are gloves, gowns, masks & vital necessaities such as these getting into the country.
Those who know the area & filoviruses are warning this is going to get bad, possibly very bad with possibly 2 more larger waves coming, especially if it 'takes off' in the capital. This appears to easily be heading towards the worst outbreak of a filovirus ever.
So do we need to worry? No. Here's why.
Filoviruses, (so far in humans), are transmitted ONLY by direct contact with body secretions & inhaling coughed up nasties. By the time the patient is at that point, you KNOW you've got something awful on your hands & are well protected with barrier gear. Family memebers generally form the next risk group as they care for the sick & when dead, manually, (literally), clean & prepare the body for burial. The other high risk route for infection is reusing syringes & needles which have simply been rinsed - automatic death sentence with a filovirus.
We do none of these things in the west & I imagine every flight from Africa is being scrutinized for ANYTHING. This is a disease where suspect cases are immediately quarantined & other passengers watched like hawks until the incubation period, (5-10 days for Marburg), is over. They err on the long side, usually going at least 2 weeks. Should we get a case here, we might see a few health care workers or family/friends who've cared for cases contract it but by then we'd know what we were dealing with & it would end there. But in Africa, man this is a hard hit.
This still bears very close watching.
I'm looking to see as well if they're looking at the virus itself to see if mutation has or is occurring. Like I said, that's a death rate at least triple the norm & that implies a whole lot of something...
However it sounds to me more like wishfull thinking and a dose of "don't panic your all going to die anyway"
.