X-class solar flare ? 5/12

will check it out

Hannah Garrardþ@hannahgarrard4m
I have just received notice that an X - class Solar flare is in progress. The Sun is doing something interesting at last ! #SolarFlare
Retweeted by Nathan J Hunt

seems like a small X, unless I'm missing something.

Nice catch, I saw that this morning on my daily Goes X-Ray checkin. Little spot on the far left curve at about 10 o:clock. If you go here in the next few hours and click play, you'll see it flare. Feisty little thing lol.
http://sdodata.oma.be/latest/aia_0335.html
I need to add, no major affects of this. The Earth is to the right and rotates towards the right, so it will pass behind us.
Here's what it looked like on Stereo.
http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/images


I would guess the X Flare surface shockwave triggered a small CME at us. You can see it at 4-5 o:clock, might graze us in a few days, but probably no big affects either.


If you guys wonder where these sats are at, B stands for Stereo Behind, A stands for Stereo Ahead, and the blue image I posted is Lasco C2, which is in a loose orbit around Earth, giving a birds eye view from our perspective.
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/where.shtml

Just had another X class, X fourish or so.

That's a large sunspot, already giving off two X flares, and just now starting to be on the Earth facing side of the sun. This may prove to be an interesting week. I wonder if this ramping up of solar activity has anything to do with the GRB that showed up on April 27th, largest, brightest, longest duration ever recorded. They say the evidence of the supernova that it came from should be showing up in our vicinity today or tomorrow - can it also be effecting the sun?????? lots we still don't know.

HD

I hadn't heard about that GRB, interesting. FYI guys, the Goes X-Ray above is a live link, constantly updating. If you sit on the page, just hit F5 to refresh it and the latest info will be displayed.

xxx we have a tic tac toe game going.

And another one.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

SOLAR ACTIVITY SURGES: A sunspot on the sun's eastern limb is crackling with powerful X-class solar flares. Just-numbered AR1748 announced itself during the early hours of May 13th with an X1.7-class eruption (0217 UT), quickly followed by an X2.8-class flare (1609 UT) and an X3.2-class flare (0117 UT on May 14). These are the strongest flares of the year so far, and they signal a significant increase in solar activity. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of more X-flares during the next 24 hours. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.

All of these flares have produced strong flashes of extreme ultraviolet radiation. Here is the view of the latest eruption, which registered X3.2 on the Richter Scale of Solar Flares, from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:



The explosions have also hurled coronal mass ejections (CMEs) into space. Coronagraphs onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory are tracking the clouds: movie. The planet in the CME movie is Mercury. Although the CMEs appear to hit Mercury, they do not. In fact, no planets were in the line of fire. However, the CMEs appear to be on course to hit NASA's Epoxi and Spitzer spacecraft on May 15-16.

When the action began on May 13th, the instigating sunspot (just numbered "AR1748") was hidden behind the sun's eastern limb, but now solar rotation is bringing the active region into view. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory captured this first look just hours ago:



The next 24 to 48 hours should reveal much about the sunspot, including its size, magnetic complexity, and potential for future flares. For the moment, there is no reason to expect the explosions to stop. Stay tuned for updates. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.

the watcher said:

I hadn't heard about that GRB, interesting. FYI guys, the Goes X-Ray above is a live link, constantly updating. If you sit on the page, just hit F5 to refresh it and the latest info will be displayed.

Click to expand...

It's all on a thread here in this room.

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...gamma-ray-burst-on-4-27-13-shocked-scientists

THREE X CLASS FLARES on the day this supernova is supposed to be 'seen' here in the inner solar system? As the sunspot turns to face us? It's starting to look less like a coincidence in my book, although I'm not a scientist and have no credentials to make such a statement.

HD

Make that four...

ANOTHER X-FLARE ON MAY 15: When the week began, the sun hadn't unleashed an X-flare all year long. In only two days, sunspot AR1748 has produced four. The latest X-flare from this active sunspot occured on May 15th at 0152 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the extreme ultraviolet flash:

Although the sunspot is not directly facing Earth, this flare might have produced a CME with an Earth-directed component. We are waiting for coronagraph data from SOHO and the twin STEREO probes to check this possibility. Stay tuned for updates.

In summary, AR1748 has produced an X1.7-class flare (0217 UT on May 13), an X2.8-class flare (1609 UT on May 13), an X3.2-class flare (0117 UT on May 14), and an X1-class flare (0152 on May 15). These are the strongest flares of the year, and they signal a significant increase in solar activity.

http://spaceweather.com/

I appreciate hearing your thoughts on these as I learn. Thanks for sharing.

POSSIBLE CME IMPACT ON MAY 17: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hurled into space by the X1-flare of May 15th might deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on May 17th. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. Aurora alerts:text, voice.

http://spaceweather.com/

Thank you to all of you knowledgeable sun watchers. I am very interested in how these CMEs affect our planet and us. I thought of something Ed Dames has said more than once. He uses the analogy of a chicken on a rotisserie to describe what he thinks is going to happen to Earth. This sounds horrible, but plausible if these X flares keep coming. I always laugh when he says that, but there is nothing funny about that crazy, powerful fireball zapping us into cinders.

Solar flare risk for next 48 hrs

Updated at: 2013 May 15 2200 UTC


Solar Flare Risk
M-Class: 80%
X-Class: 60%


http://spaceweather.com/
http://www.solarham.net/

KP Index

This plot contains the estimated 3-hour Planetary K-Index.
K-indices of 5 or greater indicate storm-level geomagnetic activity around earth.







http://www.solarham.net/planetk.htm

X-FLARE THREAT CONTINUES: Sunspot AR1748 has already unleashed four X-class solar flares, but it might not be finished. The active region continues to grow beneath a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for powerful eruptions. NOAA puts the odds of another X-flare today at 60%. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory took this picture of AR1748 during the early hours of May 16th:



The sunspot is not particularly large, but it is complex, with many dark cores scattered through its zone of influence. This is a sign of a complicated overlying magnetic field. Magnetic complexity is the source of AR1748's explosiveness: when tangled lines of magnetic force cross and reconnect--bang! A flare occurs.

All by itself, AR1748 has produced more X-flares than every other sunspot of the past year combined. In summary, AR1748 has given us an X1.7-class flare (0217 UT on May 13), an X2.8-class flare (1609 UT on May 13), an X3.2-class flare (0117 UT on May 14), and an X1-class flare (0152 on May 15). More could be in the offing. Solar flare alerts:text, voice.


http://spaceweather.com/

http://www.solarham.net/

Added 05/18/2013 @ 02:50 UTC
Minor CME Impact
A little later than expected, but a Coronal Mass Ejection from the X1 event on May 15th swept past Earth this evening. A geomagnetic sudden impulse measuring 31 nT was detected by the Boulder, Colorado magnetometer. Currently the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is tipped south. An increase in geomagnetic activity will be possible tonight.

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2013 May 18 0252 UTC
Valid To: 2013 May 18 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2013 May 18 0112 UTC
Deviation: 31 nT
Station: Boulder




This is from earlier, I expect it will be updated later.

Updated 05/17/2013 @ 18:50 UTC
M3.2 Solar Flare + CME
A moderate solar flare reaching M3.2 was detected around Sunspot 1748 at 08:57 UTC Friday morning. The latest solar flare event was associated with a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) measuring 450sfu, along with Type II and IV Radio Emissions (Sweep Frequency Events). The active region is now in a geoeffective position for Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejecitons. I will provide further updates should a CME be associated. Stay Tuned for more information. Image below by SDO.





CME Update: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is visible within the latest STEREO Behind COR2 imagery. There does appear to be an Earth directed component. The latest CME Prediction Model released by the Goddard Space Flight Center shows a possible impact by late on May 19th. The Coronal Mass Ejection was the result of the M3 solar flare event from this morning. Minor to Moderate geomagnetic storming at high latitudes may be possible if the plasma cloud sweeps past our planet on Sunday. I will provide more updates in the days ahead.

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
May 18: None (Below G1) May 19: G2 (Moderate) May 20: None (Below G1)

INCOMING CME: Sunspot AR1748 unleashed an M3-class solar flare on May 17th at 0858 UT: image. Although this is not the strongest flare we've seen from AR1748, it could be the most geoeffective. The explosion hurled a CME into space that is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field on May 19th. NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives.

The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory took this picture of the CME leaving the sun at 1500 km/s (3.4 million mph) on May 17th:


[video]http://www.spaceweather.com/images2013/18may13/cme_anim.GIF[/video]

In the video, the CME appears to hit Mercury, but it does not. It is merely passing in front of the first planet. Instead the CME will deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on May 19th. Aurora alerts: text, voice.

update:


Latest Solar News and Updates

The Return of 1731 / Weak CME Impact
05/20/2013 by Kevin VE3EN at 05:50 UTC


ZeroFive is located in the United States and specializes in multi-band vertical antennas and much more.

Updated 05/20/2013 @ 05:50 UTC
Return of Sunspot 1731 / M-Class activity
A moderate solar flare peaking at M1.7 was observed off the east limb around returning Sunspot 1731 at 05:25 UTC early Monday morning. This region appears to be quite active and will begin to rotate back into view within the next 24 hours. Because the sunspot is located off the east limb, any eruption at this time would have little to no effect on our planet. Stay Tuned as we will get a better look at the active region over the next few days.



Updated 05/20/2013 @ 04:50 UTC
CME Sweeps Past Earth / Weak Impact
The magnetometer located in Boulder, Colorado detected a geomagnetic sudden impulse measuring 39 nT at 23:06 UTC. This signals the passage of an interplanetary shock past our planet. Currently the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is pointed north, a condition that is know to suppress geomagnetic activity. It is still very early during the impact stage and it could begin to tip south at any point. An increase in geomagnetic activity at very high latitudes will be possible tonight. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest updates.

UPDATE: As of this update, Geomagnetic activity following the CME Impact on Sunday evening failed to reach geomagnetic storm levels. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has been mostly pointed north, a condition that is know to suppress geomagnetic activity. Widespread displays or aurora is unlikely tonight. I will provide further updates should conditions change.

WARNING: SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2013 May 19 2306 UTC
Deviation: 39 nT
Station: Boulder




Updated 05/19/2013 @ 12:50 UTC
Solar Update
Good morning. Solar activity is currently at low levels with only minor C-Class activity detected within the past 24 hours. Sunspot 1750 which is heading for the west limb produced a C3.4 flare this morning at 09:15 UTC. This region along with Sunspot 1748 post the greatest threat for solar flares today. Sunspot 1748 continues to slowly decay and the threat for strong solar flares should continue to diminish around this region. All other regions are fairly stable.

Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.

Movies at link: http://www.spaceweather.com/


CME AND RADIATION STORM: A solar radiation storm is in progress on May 22nd following an M5-class explosion on the sun's western limb. The source of the flare, which peaked at 1332 UT, was departing sunspot AR1745. SOHO coronagraphs observed a magnificent CME emerging from the blast site:



Play the movie again. The speckles dancing across the image are caused by high-energy solar protons striking the CCD camera in SOHO's coronagraph. Those protons were guided toward Earth by magnetic field lines that connect our planet to the blast site. The rain of protons is what forecasters mean by a "radiation storm." This storm ranks S2 on NOAA storm scales.

Update (May 22 @ 5:30 PDT): Although the explosion was not squarely Earth-directed, the CME will likely be geoeffective. The expanding cloud appears set to deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on May 24th around 1200 UT. According to NOAA forecast models, the impact will more than double the solar wind plasma density around Earth and boost the solar wind speed to ~600 km/s. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras (I miss seeing the auroras, would love for my grands to see one someday...maybe another time)
alerts:text, voice.

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery


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I thought this might interest some who didn't know (like me) and would maybe want to see it.



THE SHOW BEGINS: The long-awaited sunset sky show of May 2013 is beginning. In only a few days, Venus, Jupiter and Mercury will form a tight triangle in the western sky, visible to the unaided eye around the world. Last night, Fred Espenak of Portal, Arizona, photographed the trio in the early stages of convergence:



"The three planets were easily visible to the naked eye in spite of the bright twilight glow," says Espanel. "Mercury should be even easier to spot in the coming days as it climbs higher into the sky. "

In the nights ahead, the line of planets will collapse to form a triangle. At closest approach on May 26th, they will fit within a circle less than 3o wide. Start watching tonight--it's a great way to end the day. [full story] [video]

update to post #21 After at least two arrival revisions, it seems to have finally arrived/swept past us a few hours ago.

Updated 05/24/2013 @ 19:00 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm in Progress / CME Impact
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) flung into space by a solar flare on May 22nd swept past Earth on Friday afternoon. The ACE Spacecraft first detected the shock passage at 17:35 UTC. A geomagnetic sudden impulse measuring 18 nT was detected by the Boulder, Colorado magnetometer at around 18:12 UTC. A minor G1 Level Geomagnetic Storm (Kp=5) is now in progress. Stay Tuned for updates.

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2013 May 24 1853 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2013 May 24 1812 UTC
Deviation: 18 nT
Station: Boulder


http://www.solarham.net/