WAR 05/18/2013 to 05/24/2013____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(57) 04/13/2013 to 04/19/2013____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...-19-2013____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(58) 04/20/2013 to 04/26/2013____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...-26-2013____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(59) 04/27/2013 to 05/03/2013____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...-03-2013____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(60) 05/04/2013 to 05/10/2013____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...-10-2013____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(61) 05/11/2013 to 05/17/2013____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...-17-2013____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

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Hummmm.......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://atimes.com/atimes/Japan/JAP-01-170513.html

Japan
May 17, '13
Fox leads tiger into China's crosshairs
By Peter Lee

"Irritating Japan" is well on its way to replacing "Rising China" as the meme favored by the United States as Abe Shinzo's new nationalism exploits US backing to advance its own goals. Beijing sees "the fox pretending to the tiger's might". Tokyo is pushing bigger game, the weakened US Asian "pivot" itself, into Beijing's crosshairs.

There is a delicious flavor of Western bewilderment about the never-ending parade of Japanese nationalist shenanigans. The most recent entry was Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto's endorsement of the World War II Japanese military brothel system, aka "comfort women":

In the circumstances in which bullets are flying like rain and wind, the soldiers are running around at the risk of losing their lives. If you want them to have a rest in such a situation, a comfort women system is necessary. Anyone can understand that. [1]

Hashimoto - who seems to have way too much of his mental space occupied by visions of sexually rampaging soldiers - made his remarks in the context of promoting the Okinawan sex-worker industry as a legal source of relief for the hard-working American military men based on the island.

Toru Hashimoto ... told reporters Monday that he visited with Marine Corps Air Station Futenma's commander last month and told him that service members should make more use of Japan's legalized sex industry.

"There are places where people can legally release their sexual energy in Japan," Hashimoto said during a video press conference Monday in Osaka. "Unless they make use of these facilities, it will be difficult to control the sexual energies of the wild Marines."

Hashimoto said that the commander responded with a bitter smile and told him that brothels are off-limits to US service members. [2]

Bitter smile, indeed.

Perhaps the US government took little comfort from Hashimoto conflating the sexual needs of the US military today with those of the Imperial Japanese Army.

For those who have been following the Okinawan issue - and China's rather malicious and successful highlighting of particularist sentiments among the Okinawan population as part of its campaign to undermine Japan's claim to eternal and uncontested sovereignty over the Senkakus - it was noteworthy that there were also Okinawan protests against Hashimoto's comfort-women remarks.

Since most comfort women on Okinawa during World War II were Korean, Okinawan objections are apparently more along the lines of resentment against the sexual impositions involved in contemporary Tokyo-imposed US basing rather than the historical revisionism on the comfort women issue that inflamed opinion in China and South Korea.

As China continues to push the Okinawan hot button with its questioning of Japanese sovereignty over the Ryukyu Island chain, expect more media focus on the most loaded question in Okinawa/Japanese history: the Battle of Okinawa in 1945.

Japanese nationalists have worked assiduously to shape the official narrative - down to the wording of memorial plaques - to depict Okinawa as the frontline of Japanese resistance. However, many Okinawans consider the battle - which resulted in the death of over 100,000 Okinawan civilians in the Japanese military's Gotterdammerung defense - as an atrocity in which Okinawa and Okinawans were sacrificed to buy time for the Japanese home islands. (In the event, fear that the bloody action on Okinawa would be replicated across the four "home islands" reportedly convinced US president Harry Truman to short-circuit the war by dropping atomic bombs on Nagasaki and Hiroshima.)

A vocal sector of Okinawan public opinion regards Japanese nationalist revisionism as an effort to deny Okinawan suffering and submerge it beneath an untrue narrative of Japanese heroism.

Asia-Japan Focus reported in 2012 on the fracas over a plaque commemorating the Japanese army headquarters on Okinawa (which, interestingly and tragically, was sited at Shuri Castle, the "pre-eminent symbol of the Ryukyu Kingdom" according to the translators):

A controversy has arisen over Okinawa governor Nakaima's deletion of the word suteishi (sacrificial stone) [this doesn't mean "sacrificial stone" in the exalted sense of a "consecrated altar"; it refers to a disposable position and losable game piece in the board game of go] from the draft that was prepared for the translation of the description for the explanation panel about the 32nd Army HQ Shelter. Hitherto, the word suteishi has been used as a key term that directly captures the essence of the Battle of Okinawa. This word also symbolises "postwar" Japan-Okinawa relations, in which Japan regained its sovereignty with the San Francisco Peace Treaty, while abandoning Okinawa to US military domination, and forcing it to bear the burden of the US bases, even after Japan regained administrative rights over Okinawa. [3]

There is nothing new about Japanese nationalism with a World War II denialist tinge.

Despite efforts to keep it buttoned up (members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party distanced themselves from Hashimoto's remarks), nationalism keeps bubbling up, and its emergence into the Japanese political mainstream is an unpleasant surprise for American pundits. After all, "peaceful, progressive, and democratic Japan" is more than a useful cliche in the compare-and-contrast framing opposite "assertive, oppressive, and communist China".

A cooperative, helpful Japan is the linchpin of US efforts to orchestrate a soft containment of China based on US-friendly liberal norms and justified by the idea that the unruly Chinese dragon needs to be kept in its cage by an alliance of the US and Asian democracies.

Japan "going off the res" and behaving like a war-loving dingbat creates obvious problems for the optics of the "pivot to Asia".

Japanese nationalism also complicates the US narrative with its healthy dose of anti-Americanism (including a sub voce tendency to blame the US-imposed constitution, US-demanded yen appreciation, the US-inflicted global financial crisis, and US blind infatuation with the strategic and economic importance of China for Japan's long-term woes), and a remarkable and embarrassing hostility toward critical US ally South Korea as Japan's zero-sum rival for economic and diplomatic leadership among the Asian democracies.

The fact that a bona fide Asian democracy can act so "assertively" also calls into question the lazy liberal assumption that democratization is a panacea that automatically translates into tolerance, transnational amity, de-escalation of tensions, and regional stability.

A less obvious but, I expect, to US diplomatic strategists, more pressing problem is that nationalist ideals are serving as a justification for an independent-minded Japanese foreign policy that plays lip service to US objectives but actually exploits US backing in order to advance Japanese interests at the expense of US goals.

In the US, we call it "The tail wagging the dog".

In China (and Japan), the relevant proverb is "The fox pretending to the tiger's might". (In the Chinese proverb, the fox claims that people respect him more than the tiger. "Just walk behind me, and you'll see how people fear me." The gullible tiger follows the fox and is chagrined to see all the other animals fleeing, apparently, before the fox.)

My personal shorthand for the situation is "Japan as the Israel of East Asia".

I think this is a metaphor that troubles the US government as well. After all, one of the attractions of pivoting to Asia and away from the Middle East was that the United States would be leaving a region in which its freedom of movement was constrained at enormous financial, military, and diplomatic cost by Israel's ability to substitute its own security narrative (existential threat of Iran's nuclear weapons) for the US priority, at least for the Obama administration (normalizing relations with Iran and resolution of the Palestinian issue).

Instead, I have a feeling that Japan under nationalist rule will be more interested in encouraging polarization between pro-China and pro-US blocs in Asia - thereby providing Japan with a favored and decisive role - than it will be in behaving like the good, obedient ally assisting the United States as it manages its relationship with China, soon the world's largest economy, at the expense of the interests and anxieties of an increasingly marginalized Japan.

By this reading, the Senkaku crisis - which forces the United States to line up with Japan against China over some Taiwanese rocks the Obama administration cares nothing about - is like money in the bank for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Therefore I'm not expecting that crisis to go anywhere soon.

US anxieties about Japan are creeping into the news sections and editorial pages, albeit with continued allegiance to the old tropes of the "China rising" menace and the "loyal Japanese ally".

In a stern Gray Lady editorial that read like an exercise in US imperial nostalgia that does not translate well into a 21st century reality of increasingly assertive Asian nations, the NY Times acknowledged the inconvenience of provocative Japanese nationalism while presuming to lecture both sides on where their real interests lie:

The right-wing nationalists who took power in December may be equally unwilling to put Japan's past behind it, although the government of the new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, took a positive step on Tuesday when it said it would abide by official apologies that the country made two decades ago to victims of World War II. China and Japan have strong economic ties and are critical to regional stability. Both will lose if they stumble into war or otherwise cannot resolve this escalating dispute. [4]

And, via Sinocism, Ian Burama wrote in the same oblivious vein in Wall Street Journal:

Things, in short, are back to square one: Pax Americana containing China, with Japan as Washington's loyal vassal. This might seem a stable, even comfortable, position from the US point of view. In fact, it isn't. For a long time, the Chinese put up with the US being the policeman of East Asia, because the prospect of a more independent, fully rearmed, even nuclear Japan would be worse. But Japan's role as a kind of cat's paw of American dominance, with Japanese nationalists compensating for their subservience by indulging in bellicose talk, will be the source of ever greater tensions, which are bad for everyone, including the US. [5]

I think public-arena US pundits are a little bit behind the curve here. We're now drifting away from the comfy post-World War II narrative of "Japan is completely dependent on us" and "everybody wants to club together to contain the Chinese" to the brave new world of eroding US dominance, the emergence of China as an economic linchpin, and "US objectives are hostage to Japan's forward Asian policy".

China seems to sense an opportunity here. Global Times, the Chinese populist/conservative mouthpiece, unloaded on Abe in an editorial (not an op-ed, please note) whose true audience is probably the US government, rather than bewildered Western observers:

But set against the background of Japan's economic depression, Japan's national political ambitions which Abe represents are full of loss, resentment and urgency.

In the few months since taking office, Abe impressed Japanese public by his hatred of Japan's defeat in place of a normal hard-line diplomacy. He hates the result of World War II instead of hating those who started the war. He does not accept China's rise through peace and hard work and rails against the general trend of East Asia's development.

China cannot change Abe's value nor influence his strategic choice. China should lower its expectations toward the bilateral relationship.

As for Abe himself, we should have no expectation. We believe that there is no need for Chinese leaders to meet him during his term. That would not alleviate the bilateral relationship but will undermine our own image. China should maintain its current indifferent interactions with Japan and try to reduce chances of crisis.

The next chance for China to improve the bilateral relationship will come after Abe's term. Before this, China should show Japan its confidence through indifference. [6]

The message here, other than the Chinese government is righteously pissed off at Japan, is that the US pivot - with its hope of modulated pressure leading to more desirable Chinese behavior - is on life support. China, using the excuse as well as the reality of Japanese nationalism, is digging in for a period of confrontation, not conciliation or concession.

The key question is whether the PRC will be mollified by some self-serving olive-branch extension by the Abe government. I think not. I think the PRC is hunting for bigger game. Global Times is urging the PRC leadership to write off Japan for the duration of Abe's prime ministership.

It sees Japan's nationalist preoccupations as the chance to deepen the wedge between Japan and the United States, and push the US to a more "G2" (ie US + China) Asian regime.

If the US desires a good working relationship with China, it will have to do so at the expense of distancing itself from Japan and undermining the basic premise of the pivot - that the Asian democracies and the United States are not driven by vulgar and diverse national interests and instead, indivisibly and completely, share the noblest multilateral values and goals and interests in confronting China.

Notes:
1. Japan WWII 'comfort women' were 'necessary' - Hashimoto, BBC News, May 14, 2013.
2. Osaka mayor: 'Wild Marines' should consider using prostitutes, Stars and Stripes, May 14, 2013.
3. We Cannot Allow Governor Nakaima to Falsify the History of the Battle of Okinawa, Japan Focus, March, 2012.
4. China's Evolving 'Core Interests', New York Times, May 11, 2013.
5. The Sinocism China Newsletter, May 13, 2013.
6. Abe brings Sino-Japanese ties to abyss, Global Times, May 14, 2013.

Peter Lee writes on East and South Asian affairs and their intersection with US foreign policy.

(Copyright 2013 Peter Lee)

Related Articles:
US hoist by its own pivot petard
(May 10, '13)

Japan stirs Campbell's 'pivot' soup (Apr 26, '13)

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/18/w...lasts-in-iraq.html?partner=MYWAY&ei=5065&_r=0

Blasts Kill Dozens of Iraqis as Sectarian Tensions Boil
By DURAID ADNAN
Published: May 17, 2013

BAGHDAD — At least 66 people were killed in bomb blasts in Iraq on Friday, officials said, making it one of the bloodiest days this year as the country struggles to contain spiraling sectarian violence.

Two bombs exploded in Baquba, the capital of Diyala Province, a turbulent region whose population is a mix of Sunni and Shiite Muslims. One of the bombs exploded at the edge of a bridge near a Sunni mosque where worshipers had gathered for Friday Prayer. Within minutes, after a crowd of people ran to help the wounded, another bomb exploded in their midst. Officials said 40 people were killed and 46 were wounded in the two blasts.

The Saraya mosque, where the blasts took place, is one of the main mosques where Sunnis in Baquba pray and hear speeches to support protests in Anbar and other Sunni provinces calling for change in the Shiite-dominated government.

“Where is my brother?” shouted Thirgham Ahmed, 26, who was wounded in his legs and back, as he searched for a brother whom he later found dead. “If I lose him, I lose my life,” Mr. Ahmed said.

In the Baquba hospital, a woman who was identified as Um Ahmed wailed over the deaths of her husband and nephew.

“I don’t want my life anymore. Where is your soul now?” she said.

In another attack, south of Baghdad in Baladiyat, a homemade bomb blew up near a funeral tent, killing 7 civilians and wounding 28 people in all, the police said. Also, 19 people were killed when a roadside bomb exploded near a commercial complex in the Amiriya district of western Baghdad, Reuters reported.

The last time the casualty figures were so high on one day was when a series of bombings on March 19 killed 57 people in the Baghdad area. At least 42 people were killed in gun battles that erupted on April 23 in cities across Iraq that have Sunni majorities.

The attacks on Friday also brought to a close a particularly violent week. Car bombs exploded in Shiite neighborhoods of Baghdad on Thursday, part of a series of attacks in the capital and elsewhere that left at least 21 people dead, officials said in a report by The Associated Press. And on Wednesday, bombings in Shiite areas of Baghdad and in northern Iraq killed more than 35 people, after weeks of violence by Sunni Islamist insurgents who are determined to set off sectarian confrontations, Reuters reported.

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Posted for fair use......
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/18/w...t-gated-community-near-kandahar.html?ref=asia

World Briefing | Asia
Afghanistan: Bombs Kill at Least 9 at Gated Community Near Kandahar
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: May 17, 2013

Two bombs hidden in a motorcycle and a car exploded inside a gated community linked to the family of President Hamid Karzai on Friday evening, killing at least 9 people and wounding more than 70 near the southern city of Kandahar, an official said. The blasts happened inside Aino Mina, a housing complex on the northern outskirts of the city that was developed in part by Mahmood Karzai, the president’s younger brother. No one immediately claimed responsibility for the attack. A Kandahar government spokesman said that an investigation was under way into how the explosives-laden vehicles slipped past the heavy security.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/18/w...olice-close-gaza-crossing.html?ref=middleeast

Egypt: Angry Police Close Gaza Crossing
By REUTERS
Published: May 17, 2013

Egyptian police officers blocked the Rafah crossing into the Gaza Strip on Friday to protest the kidnapping of seven of their colleagues by Islamist gunmen, witnesses said. Officers strung barbed wire across the border post and chained up the gates, leaving hundreds of Palestinians stranded on both sides of the fence, residents said. Gunmen abducted the seven security officers — policemen and a military border guard — on a road between the Sinai towns of El Arish and Rafah on Thursday and demanded the release of imprisoned militants in exchange for the seven men. A police officer was released shortly after the abduction as a sign of good will, but there was no information on the other six men, security officials said.

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20130517/DA6B9DV84.html

Egypt security forces clash with Cairo protesters

May 17, 4:45 PM (ET)

CAIRO (AP) - Egyptian security forces have fired tear gas at protesters hurling firebombs at them in central Cairo, hours after hundreds of opponents of Egypt's President Mohammed Morsi rallied peacefully in the streets denouncing his rule and demanding early presidential elections.

The Friday protests witnessed low turnout but come on the heels of a campaign dubbed "Rebel," which aims at collecting 15 million signatures on a petition to oust Morsi and hold early elections. Coordinators said they have collected 2 million signatures.

The demonstrators earlier marched through Cairo before converging on Tahrir Square, chanting: "Down with the rule of the Guide," in reference to the leader of Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood.

Morsi's opponents say he only serves the interest of the Brotherhood. The group says it has won legitimacy through the ballot box.

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20130517/DA6B90E83.html

Crucial evidence to be secret in Litvinenko probe

May 17, 4:17 PM (ET)
By SYLVIA HUI

LONDON (AP) - A coroner overseeing a British inquest into the 2006 poisoning death of Alexander Litvinenko ruled Friday he has to exclude evidence on whether the Russian state was involved in the killing, drawing bitter criticism from the former Russian security agent's widow and adding further doubts to an already much-delayed probe.

In his ruling Friday, coroner Robert Owen said he accepted an application made by British Foreign Secretary William Hague to keep some evidence surrounding the case secret on national security grounds. The decision means that Owen can't consider documents relating to Russia's alleged role in the agent's death, as well as material about whether British security officials could have done anything to prevent it.

Litvinenko, a 43-year-old former agent turned Kremlin critic, died in November 2006, after drinking tea laced with the radioactive isotope polonium-210 at a London hotel. His family says he was working for Britain's intelligence services at the time of his death. Britain accuses two Russians of the killing, but Moscow has refused to extradite the men, who both denied the charges.

Lawyers for Litvinenko's widow, Marina, said Friday she was "utterly dismayed by the coroner's decision to abandon his search for the truth about Russian state responsibility for her husband's death."

"This is a very sad day for Mrs. Litvinenko, a tragedy for British justice which has until now been respected around the world, and it is a frightening precedent for all of those, around the world, who have been trying so hard to expose the crimes committed by conspiracy of organized criminals that operate from the Kremlin," the lawyers said in a statement.

An inquest into the case was initially planned to open this month, but the procedures have been repeatedly stalled because of delays in disclosing evidence.

Hague earlier made the application to withhold evidence by claiming "public interest immunity." The substance of what the documents contained wasn't disclosed to the public.

Owen conceded that the two issues now being excluded from the inquest - possible Russian state culpability and Britain's possible role in preventing the killing - were "of central importance." Trying to continue the inquest without addressing these issues will inevitably lead to an "incomplete, inadequate and potentially misleading" inquiry, he added.

The coroner said he would consider inviting the government to instead hold a separate inquiry that could hear the sensitive evidence.

Inquests are held in Britain to determine the facts about violent or unexplained deaths. In Litvinenko's case, the inquest did not start taking shape until almost five years after the death because for a time authorities believed they could bring criminal prosecutions against the two Russian suspects.

---

Online: http://www.litvinenkoinquest.org

Sylvia Hui can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/sylviahui

North Korea news/watch thread under new Military leadership...and maybe not a good thing
Started by Lilbitsnana‎, Today 12:47 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...itary-leadership...and-maybe-not-a-good-thing

__________

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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...north-koreas-nuclear-program/article12011764/


UN panel says sanctions delaying development of North Korea’s nuclear program

Edith M. Lederer
The Associated Press
Published Friday, May. 17 2013, 11:34 PM EDT
Last updated Friday, May. 17 2013, 11:34 PM EDT

North Korea is still trying to import and export nuclear and ballistic missile-related items but financial and trade sanctions are slowing progress on development of their prohibited weapons, U.N. experts say in a new report.

Key parts of the expert panel’s report, obtained Friday by the Associated Press, provide further information on North Korea’s attempts to evade four rounds of increasingly tough U.N. sanctions aimed at reining in its development of nuclear weapons and the ballistic missiles to deliver them.

While the imposition of sanctions has not halted these programs, the panel said, “it has in all likelihood considerably delayed the (North’s) timetable, and through the imposition of financial sanctions and the bans on the trade in weapons, has choked off significant funding which would have been channeled into prohibited activities.”

The report to the U.N. Security Council committee monitoring sanctions against North Korea recommended imposing sanctions on four additional North Korean companies and 11 individuals.

The council discussed the experts’ report on Thursday and it will be up to members to decide whether they are added to the sanctions blacklist.

To increase pressure on Kim Jong Un’s regime, the United States and the European Union have gone beyond U.N. sanctions and imposed even tougher financial measures against North Korea.

China, which is Pyongyang’s closest ally and economic lifeline, supported the U.N. sanctions. In a sign of growing discontent with the North, the state-run Bank of China Ltd., one of the country’s largest, halted business earlier this month with a North Korean bank accused by the U.S. of financing Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear programs.

The panel said North Korea “has continued to defy the international community in a series of actions which has heightened concerns about its intentions.” It cited the North’s ballistic missile launch on Dec. 12, its third nuclear test on Feb. 12, and its declaration that it would reactivate nuclear facilities at its Yongbyon nuclear complex.

“The DPRK has continued its efforts to import and export items relevant to missile and nuclear programs and arms,” the panel said, using the initials of the country’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

The report listed North Korean sanctions violations over a five-year period including the seizure of aluminum alloys suspected to be nuclear related in August 2012, and the seizure of missile-related items bound for Syria in May 2012.

In 2011, it said North Korea attempted to procure missile technology, sophisticated computer tools, and parts for MiG-21 jets in violation of sanctions. In 2010, arms-related material bound for Syria was seized and in 2008 rocket fuses bound for Iran were confiscated, it said.

Given the North’s “consistent sanctions evasion,” the panel recommended that the country’s newly created Ministry of Atomic Energy Industry and its minister, who has not yet been named, be added to the sanctions list.

For violating the ballistic missile ban, it recommended adding the Munitions Industry Department of the Central Committee of the Korean Workers Party and the State Space Development Bureau.

The panel also recommended sanctions against the Hesong Trading Corporation, a subsidiary of the Korea Mining Development Trading Corp., which was involved in trying to sell 70 North Korean portable anti-aircraft missiles to Azerbaijan. British arms dealer Michael Ranger was convicted in July 2012 of attempting to sell the missiles, and the panel also recommended that the U.N. put his primary contact at Hesong, O Hak-Chol, on the sanctions list.

The panel said it had closed its investigation into Thailand’s seizure of an arms shipment from a plane originating in North Korea in 2009 that was valued at over US$ 16 million. It recommended sanctions against Alexander Zykov of Kazakhstan and Ukrainians Iurii Lunov and Igor Karev-Popov, who were involved in the arms transfer.

Given the DPRK’s continued development of its nuclear programs, the panel urged that key items, especially for uranium enrichment, be subject to sanctions including high-strength steel and aluminum alloy, frequency changers, fibrous or filamentary materials, ring magnets, and semi-hard magnetic alloys in thin strip form.

The panel noted that 96 countries — under 50 per cent of the 193 U.N. member states — have submitted reports on their implementation of sanctions against North Korea.

“Regrettably, the level of detail given in many of these is insufficient to judge if domestic legislation is sufficient to effectively enforce the sanctions,” it said.

More Related to this Story

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North Korea replaces hard-line defence chief with younger general

finance Chinese state bank cuts off business with Pyongyang

Police officials say gunmen have kidnapped 8 Iraqi policemen who were guarding a post on the main highway to Jordan and Syria - @AP

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Gunman breaks into house in Baghdad and kills 5 people, including a police officer, his wife and 2 children - @BBCNews

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Suspected Sunni Muslim militants kill 4 state-backed Sunni fighters in Iraq, security sources say - @Reuters

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A powerful explosion has hit Damascus, causing an unknown number of casualties, Syrian state TV reports - @AP

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Pope Francis to visit Egypt's Coptic Pope; date for visit not set yet - @NBCNews

1 hour ago by editor

--------------------

Andre_Verzaal: RT @Nesrinea: Big explosion #Damascus city center. #Syria
Saturday, May 18, 2013 3:10:57 PM

nycjim: “@NOW_Syria: Syria state TV: Three killed, five wounded in #Damascus blast #NOW_Eng #NOW_Syria #Syria”
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DanielePinto: A car bomb exploded today in a northern district of the #Damascus killing at least three people and wounding five others--#Syria State TV.
Saturday, May 18, 2013 3:12:47 PM

rozalinachomsky: a big explosion in #Damascus city (rukn al-din) http://t.co/pxZSuVzgT7 #syria
Saturday, May 18, 2013 3:17:45 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6OPkPQqCSY&feature=youtu.be

A senior female Pakistani politician has been shot dead in the city of Karachi - @BBCNews

5 mins ago from www.bbc.co.uk by editor

-----------

18 May 2013 Last updated at 15:37 ET

Pakistan politician Zahra Shahid Hussain killed in Karachi
Breaking news

A senior female Pakistani politician has been shot dead in the city of Karachi.

Zahra Shahid Hussain was the senior vice-president of Pakistan's Movement for Justice party, led by former international cricketer Imran Khan.

She was killed outside her home in the city's upmarket Defence neighbourhood.

Her murder comes on the eve of a highly-contested partial election re-run in the area after last Saturday's general election.

Pakistan's Dawn newspaper, citing police, said the shooting happened during an attempted robbery. However, this could not be verified.

Other reports say she was rushed to hospital but succumbed to her injuries on her way.

The partial re-run of the vote was ordered after Mr Khan's party accused the city's dominant MQM party of widespread rigging and intimidation.

The MQM - which took most of the seats in Karachi - denies the accusations.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22584440

NewsBreakerþ@NewsBreaker11m
NEW: Assad orders army to ready missile strike against Israel in case Syria is attacked, The Sunday Times reports http://bit.ly/10MV0wC


posted for fair use

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diploma...inst-tel-aviv-in-case-attacked-again-1.524664


Report: Assad preparing missile strike against Tel Aviv in case attacked again

The Syrian army is deploying advanced surface-to-surface missiles aiming at Israel in the aftermath of the alleged Israeli strikes, The Sunday Times reports.

By Haaretz | May.19, 2013 | 2:39 AM | 9


http://www.haaretz.com/polopoly_fs/1.524477.1368764982!/image/72765679.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape
President Bashar Assad speaks during an interview on Syrian state television. Photo by AP

this story is by Haaretz
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Syria is making preparations to strike Tel Aviv in case Israel launches another attack on its territory, The Sunday Times reported on Sunday.

The Syrian army has begun deploying advanced surface-to-surface missiles, the report said, adding that it has received orders to strike central Israel in case additional attacks against Syria are carried out.

The Sunday Times said that the information was obtained by reconnaissance satellites that were tracking the Syrian forces. According to the report, Syria was deploying advanced Tishreen missiles which are capable of carrying a holf-ton warhead.

Israel, foreign media reported, was behind three attacks against targets in Syria in the past five months. The air raids, it was said, targeted shipments of weapons heading to Lebanon's Hezbollah.

Israel refused to officially confirm the recent attacks.

On Wednesday, The New York Times quoted a senior Israeli official warning of further attacks against Syria in case Bashar Assad decides to take action against Israel. The official also said Israel is determined to prevent any transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that Syria would supply his organization with 'game-changing weapons' in response to recent air raids near Damascus attributed to Israel.



Another recent report claimed that Iran convinced Assad to allow Hezbollah to open a front against Israel in the Golan Heights and also agreed to supply and assist any group that wishes to fight Israel.

2013/05/19 10:00 KST


S. Korea, Russia in talks for summit in fall: ambassador

SEOUL, May 19 (Yonhap) -- South Korea and Russia are in talks for a summit meeting later this year on the sidelines of a multinational conference in the Eurasian country, Seoul's ambassador to Moscow said Sunday.

Wi Sung-lac, the South Korean ambassador to Russia, told reporters that the G20 Summit, scheduled for Sept. 5-6 in Saint Petersburg, may serve as an opportunity to set up the first summit talks between South Korean President Park Geun-hye and her Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2013/05/19/0200000000AEN20130519000300315.HTML

Steve Herman‏@W7VOA7m
RT @YonhapNews: #ROK deploys Israeli missiles to protect border islands amid #DPRK threat - http://bit.ly/19Nzax0 #Korea


posted for fair use


2013/05/19 11:38 KST

S. Korea deploys Israeli missiles to protect border islands

SEOUL, May 19 (Yonhap) -- South Korea has placed Israeli precision-guided missiles capable of striking North Korean coastal artillery on its Yellow Sea border islands, a military official said Sunday.

"Dozens of Spike missiles and their launchers have recently been deployed on Baengnyeong and Yeonpyeong islands," an official for the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said. "They can destroy (North Korea's) underground facilities and can pursue and strike moving targets."

The satellite-guided Spike missile has a range of about 20 kilometers and weighs 70 kilograms, according to military officials. Yeonpyeong lies just 11㎞ from North Korean shores.


http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news...000900315.HTML

For links see article source....
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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/comm...t-isnt-nuclear-its-political/article11999486/

The Iranian threat isn’t nuclear – it’s political

DOUG SAUNDERS
The Globe and Mail
Published Saturday, May. 18 2013, 6:00 AM EDT
Last updated Saturday, May. 18 2013, 9:19 AM EDT
Comments 59

During the eight years of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s presidency, Iran has become an increasingly dangerous place. That danger, however, is not posed by nuclear weapons – which remain an uncertain and, at worst, long-term threat – but more urgently from Iran’s own self-imposed collapse.

Far worse than Mr. Ahmadinejad’s comic-book sabre-rattling at Israel and the West, worse than his increasingly ineffective support of extremists and demagogues, has been his effect on his own country. A decade ago, Iran was a hopeful place, moving away from the excesses of its theocratic revolution and into the outer edges of normalcy and co-operative relations with the world. The Ahmadinejad era reversed that, plunging the country into self-isolation, poverty, mismanagement and paranoia.

That era is about to end. In four weeks, Iranians will decide on their next president, and the results could affect the fate of the world.

While far from a democracy – presidential candidates are frequently removed from the ballot by the unelected Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – Iran does maintain enough democratic institutions, including the term limit that prevents Mr. Ahmadinejad from running again, that its elections are both unpredictable and potentially transformative.

This time, Iranians will be voting out of anger. They’ve seen their fortunes plummet by their president’s policies and by his cold war with the West. The key question will be whether they aim that anger at Mr. Ahmadinejad or at the countries he has provoked into isolating Iran.

There are strong indications that Iranians have lost all patience with their clerical masters. We saw signs of that in the 2009 presidential election, when the Green Movement became a major force in mainstream politics, so much so that its success forced the Islamic regime to move to outright totalitarianism, crushing the movement and imprisoning its leaders. That crackdown and the palpable loss of freedoms that accompanied it (including a ban on YouTube) have added to the public malaise.

Every Iranian feels the pain of the Ahmadinejad years. Inflation is out of control, with basic staple foods and vegetables unaffordable to many working families. The rial, Iran’s currency, has plummeted in value. Unemployment is the norm, with little economic activity beyond the dysfunctional state – and army-controlled enterprises. The country’s heroin epidemic is considered the worst in the world. And crime has become a menacing phenomenon.

The state spends an inordinate share of its revenues subsidizing the price of gasoline and other commodities, and botched reforms have produced even more inflation. And despite being a major oil exporter, Iran is heavily dependent on expensive fuel imports – one of the reasons why its nuclear ambitions may not be entirely militaristic.

When the votes are counted on June 14, it might just be the economy, stupid. That was vividly apparent last weekend when former president and avowed reformist Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani surprised many by declaring himself a candidate just before registration closed. In response, the exchange value of the rial shot up 4 per cent.

Mr. Rafsanjani, though once a revolutionary stalwart, is known as the man who persuaded the ayatollahs to end the Iran-Iraq war and who modernized Iran’s economy in the 1990s. He is now an outspoken supporter of the Green Movement, and has the backing of its leaders.

He stands a decent chance. While Ayatollah Khamenei doesn’t seem to like him, he knows that any attempt to remove him from the ballot would create unwanted unrest. And the principlists, as Mr. Ahmadinejad’s conservatives are known, appear to be divided between at least two major candidates. The President’s power struggle with Ayatollah Khamenei means that even many moderate conservatives would vote for Mr. Rafsanjani.

Would a Rafsanjani presidency put an end to the nuclear program, recognize Israel’s sovereignty and agree to a co-operative relationship with the United States, as reformist president Mohammad Khatami tried to do 10 years ago (until he was rebuffed by George W. Bush)?

Almost certainly not. Iran is too deeply ensconced in its cold war. But his economic sense could achieve the same effect: No longer would militancy be an awkward alternative to economic success – just its ugly cousin, no longer needed. If Iran can stop threatening itself, it will stop threatening the world.


More Related to this Story

Patrick Martin Don’t expect another Israeli attack on Syria anytime soon

Shenaz Kermalli Iran’s election has suddenly become interesting – and uncertain

Iran says nuclear sites safe from earthquakes and cyber threat

IMHO a likely accurate assessment of the current situation....

For links see article source....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/18/bashar-assad-exclusive-interview-syria

Bashar al-Assad issues defiant message: 'I'm here to stay'

In a rare interview, the Syrian president says a divided opposition could not uphold a peace deal and that he has no intention of stepping down


Martin Chulov, Beirut
The Observer, Saturday 18 May 2013 11.08 EDT
Jump to comments (514)

Link to video: Interview: Bashar al-Assad on Syria and the international community

Syria's embattled leader Bashar al-Assad has used a rare interview – carried out amid the sound of artillery fire resounding through his presidential palace in Damascus – to warn the United States and Russia that their efforts to bring about talks will do little to halt the civil war laying waste to his country, and that he has no intention of stepping down.

In an exclusive interview for the Argentinian newspaper Clarín, shared with the Observer, Assad says he welcomes attempts at dialogue, but believes that western states are looking for ways to fuel the violence, rather than stop it, and are seeking to topple his regime regardless of the toll.

Moscow and Washington have been in dispute over the anti-Assad uprising since it began in March 2011 but are now trying to find common ground to quell the bloodshed and destruction as its effects continue to reverberate across the region. If successful, there are hopes talks could take place at the end of this month and lead to a multilateral summit attended by key protagonists.

Assad, speaking to Clarín's reporter Marcelo Cantelmi from the library of his palace, said that a continuing lack of unity between the myriad rebel groups meant that opposition leaders would be unable to implement any ceasefire measures agreed at a summit, such as surrendering arms. "They are not a single entity," he said. "They are different groups and bands, not dozens but hundreds. They are a mixture and each group has its local leader. And who can unify thousands of people? We can't discuss a timetable with a party if we don't know who they are."

Asked about the possibility of stepping down, he said: "I don't know whether [US secretary of state] John Kerry or anyone else has received a mandate from the Syrian people to decide whether someone should stay or go. Any decision about reforms in Syria will come from Syria and neither the US nor any other state can intervene. In any case, to resign would be to flee."

Attempts to consolidate a cohesive opposition force which is committed to Syria continuing as a pluralistic state have largely been unsuccessful. The war is now into its third year, sectarian positions are hardening and regional stakeholders are being drawn ever deeper into a conflict that threatens to also consume them. Assad again blamed Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey for driving the insurgency, insisting that ending such support for the opposition must be a priority if the summit goes ahead. "There cannot be a unilateral solution in Syria; two parties are needed at least. In practice, the opposition forces are linked to foreign countries and cannot make a decision for themselves. They are one and the same, and it is they who announced that they don't want a dialogue with the Syrian state, most recently last week. Believing that a political conference will stop terrorism on the ground is unreal."

The Free Syrian Army remains nominally the umbrella rebel military group, but its power has been diminished by the rise of regional warlords and opportunists – and the creeping ascendancy of al-Qaida linked groups, which are now at the vanguard on numerous fronts. With central authority disintegrating, Syria is descending into an ungovernable domain of warlords, fiefdoms and militias, some of whom are fighting not for nationalistic aims but as part of a global jihad in the name of fundamentalist Islamist doctrine.

On both sides of the war, faith in the international community to bring about a solution has been evaporating rapidly. And in the opposition-held north of the country, there was growing frustration on Saturday at what is perceived as a disconnect between faltering global diplomacy and searing on-the-ground reality. "This is a fight to the death for the Sunnis," said Abu Hamza, a commander of a Free Syrian Army-linked brigade in Idlib province. "The regime has fired at least 200 ballistic missiles into the north against civilian areas. And the world wonders why we attack their villages? They are trying to eradicate us. We must get to them first."

Sectarianism, for so long a subcurrent in the Syrian conflict, is now a driving force for substantial elements on both the regime and opposition sides. A series of web videos posted in recent weeks chronicling atrocities committed by both sides reveals the growing depth of enmity and the willingness to lay claim to crimes that in the early months of the war would have been subject to interminable dispute. Assad denied credible reports that fighters from Lebanon's Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards had travelled to Syria to fight alongside his regime, but acknowledged that some members of both groups had been in the country.

"We do not have fighters from outside Syria," he said. "There are people here from Hezbollah and Iran, but they have been coming and going in Syria since long before the crisis." He again denied his regime had used chemical weapons, a claim regularly made by rebel groups and partly supported by western officials. He suggested that the use of such weapons could be used as a pretext to directly intervene in the crisis.

"It is probable that the issue would be used," he said. "The west lies and falsifies evidence to engineer wars, it is a habit of theirs. Of course, any war against Syria would not be easy, it wouldn't be a simple excursion.

"[Intervention] is a clear probability, especially after we've managed to beat back armed groups in many areas of Syria. Then these countries sent Israel to do this to raise the morale of the terrorist groups. We expect that an intervention will occur at some point, although it may be limited in nature."

He also rejected claims that his troops had used excessive force. "How does one define excessive force? How can one decide whether excessive force has been used or not? What is the formula to be applied?

The debate is not about the extent of the force used or the type of weapon … the issue really centres on the nature and extent of the terrorism we have suffered, and thus, what is a proper response."

Of the recent Israeli attacks, he accused Israel of doing the bidding of rebel groups, which he alleged had in turn bombed a Syrian military radar site, which allowed the Israeli jets to carry out their attack."Israel is directly supporting the terrorist groups in two ways, firstly it gives them logistical support and it also tells them what sites to attack and how to attack them. For example, they attacked a radar station that is part of our anti-aircraft defenses, which can detect any plane coming from overseas, especially from Israel."

For links see article source....
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http://www.latimes.com/news/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-israel-syria-tension-20130519,0,955488.story

Fears grow of clash between Israel and Syria

By Edmund Sanders
May 19, 2013, 9:48 a.m.

JERUSALEM — Fears about a possible escalation of violence between Israel and Syria grew Sunday amid renewed Israeli threats to destroy Syrian weapons caches and Syria's warnings of retaliation.

After decades of relative calm along the two nations’ borders, some Israeli officials say tensions with Syria have reached one of the highest points since the 1973 Yom Kippur war.

During a Cabinet meeting Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would continue to act to prevent Syria’s advanced weapons from falling into the hands of the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah or other organizations deemed to be terrorists.

“The Middle East is in one of its most sensitive periods in decades with the escalating upheaval in Syria,’’ Netanyahu said. “We are monitoring the changes there closely and are prepared for any scenario.”

Israel has been accused of launching three air strikes this year against Syrian weapons stockpiles and convoys, though officially the Israeli government has not acknowledged its responsibility.

But Israeli officials have said repeatedly they will not hesitate to attack if they fear weapons, including chemical stockpiles, are at risk of falling into the wrong hands.

In response, Syrian President Bashar Assad, whose regime did not retaliate for the previous three attacks, has signaled that he will not tolerate a fourth strike.

His government has reportedly trained advanced surface-to-surface missiles on the Israeli city of Tel Aviv, with instructions to fire in the event of another Israeli attack, according to information from reconnaissance satellite imagery reported Sunday by the Times of London.

Israeli military officials have insisted that they do not wish to interfere in the Syrian civil war or topple Assad’s regime, and that they would limit military actions toward halting the arms pipeline from Iran to Hezbollah.

At the same time, Israelis have warned Assad that if he strikes back against Israel, he risks losing control of Syria because Israel would respond with less restraint.

So far, the Israeli calculation that Assad is too weak and distracted to respond has been proven correct. But some Israeli defense analysts warn that Israel might be pushing its luck if it attacks again.

“We might think Israel enjoys full freedom of action in Syria because the regime knows what’s good for it,’’ said Shlomo Brom, analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “But this is an illusion because it ignores the fact that when you push someone into a corner, they are ultimately forced to react. I am not sure Assad is so far from this mind-set. This could cause an escalation, and the question is whether such an escalation serves Israel’s interests.”

Assad, who has surprised many by holding on to power for more than two years, struck a defiant tone over the weekend, accusing Israel of helping the rebels.

Russia, which has maintained strong ties to the Assad regime, also made a strong statement of support last week, vowing to proceed with the sale of advanced S-300 air-defense missiles to Syria despite a personal appeal from Netanyahu. Israel fears such weapons will hinder its ability to launch air strikes over Syria and Lebanon.

Many in Israel see the arms sale as a message to Israel and the West that Russia will not tolerate outside intervention in Syria.

“The Russians have shown determined support for Assad,” Maj. Gen. Amos Gilad, head of policy and political affairs strategy for the Israel Defense Forces, told Israel Radio on Friday. He said Syria “has become a battleground in which the defense of Assad and his regime has become a central pillar of Russian policy. That hasn’t changed and it has been the case throughout the entire duration of the period. That is a very tenaciously held position.”

For Israel, Russian support for Assad raises the stakes in its evolving military strategy.

Initially Israelis believed Assad could not be toppled and that despite his support for Hezbollah and the Palestinian militant group Hamas, his survival was preferable because he had proved to be something of a paper tiger when it came to militarily confronting Israel. Even after Israel reportedly bombed a Syrian nuclear facility in 2007, Assad did not respond.

Over the past year, Israelis came to believe that Assad could not survive, though they have been reluctant to openly support the rebels. They fear such support might backfire because of the strong anti-Israel sentiments in Syria.

Now Israeli officials appear split on which outcome in Syria will be worse for them: a victorious Assad regime that continues to support Hezbollah with help from Iran, or a takeover by Al Qaeda-affiliated rebels who might be less reluctant to strike Israel.

“Israel really has no clear preference between Assad’s regime and that of the gangs who would succeed him and tear the country to pieces,” said Mordechai Kedar, a Middle East expert at Bar-Ilan University. “Each has its own dangerous characteristics.”

ALSO:

New videos from Syria spotlight conflict's brutality

French president signs law allowing same-sex marriage

Three U.N. observers released unharmed between Syria and Israel
edmund.sanders@latimes.com

News researcher Batsheva Sobelman in The Times’ Jerusalem Bureau contributed to this report.

Copyright © 2013, Los Angeles Times

Now it is going to start to get "really interesting"....

For links see article source...
Posted for fair use....
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/...marine-spotted-japans-contiguous-zone-okinawa

Kyodo News International
May 19, 2013 10:00

Submarine spotted in Japan's contiguous zone off Okinawa

The Defense Ministry said Sunday that the Maritime Self-Defense Force spotted an unidentified submarine in the early morning sailing in Japan's contiguous zone south of Minamidaito Island in Okinawa Prefecture.

The submarine, detected by a P-3C MSDF patrol aircraft, was suspected of belonging to the Chinese navy, a government source said. The ministry confirmed the submarine was traveling southeast of the island outside the contiguous zone in the evening.

The ministry has been on alert as an unidentified submarine, thought to be Chinese, was seen sailing in the contiguous zone south of Kume Island on May 13.

Sailing in Japan's contiguous zone, an area outside territorial waters where Japanese law may be applied, poses no problem in terms of international law.

==Kyodo

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...mes-Why-Putin-Wants-U.S.-Bases-in-Afghanistan

Hummm.....

For links see article source...
Posted for fair use....
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/why-putin-wants-us-bases-in-afghanistan/480087.html

Why Putin Wants U.S. Bases in Afghanistan
17 May 2013 | Issue 5128
By Michael Bohm

On May 9, Afghan President Hamid Karzai announced he would allow the U.S. to keep nine military bases in Afghanistan after direct U.S. participation in the Afghan war ends in 2014. How has President Vladimir Putin responded to the possibility that Afghanistan may turn into “one giant U.S. aircraft carrier,” as Kremlin-friendly political analyst Yury Krupnov recently put it?

After Karzai’s announcement, you might have expected the Kremlin to offer its usual bluster about how the U.S. and NATO are trying to create a suffocating “Anaconda ring” around Russia — from the Baltic states, Poland, Romania, Georgia and Turkey to Afghanistan, South Korea and Japan. You might even have expected a dose of the anti-U.S. demagoguery about the U.S. government using Afghan bases to run a lucrative narcotics-export business, including daily flights of U.S. cargo aircraft filled with heroin destined for Russia and Europe. Or that U.S. bases in Afghanistan could be used for an attack on Russia. After all, Yury Krupnov and other conservative, pro-Kremlin analysts are particularly fond of reminding Russians that a U.S. nuclear missile could reach Moscow from the U.S. airbase in *Bagram, Afghanistan, in less than 20 minutes.

Yet the Kremlin was conspicuously silent about Karzai’s recent announcement on U.S. bases. At the same time, however, this restraint was consistent with Putin’s general position on Afghan security, which he first articulated in February 2012 during a speech in Ulyanovsk, the home of a joint U.S.-Russian transit center to transport U.S. war materiel out of Afghanistan. During his speech — given to a group of elite Russian paratroopers, no less — Putin offered clear support for the U.S.-led military campaign in Afghanistan.

“We have a strong interest in our southern borders being calm,” Putin said. “We need to help them [U.S. and coalition forces]. Let them fight. … This is in Russia’s national interests.”

Putin also stressed that the U.S. accepted the responsibility of defeating the Taliban, and that U.S. forces should stay there until their mission is fulfilled.

Many didn’t recognize Putin after he pronounced these words. This is the same Putin that has never tired over the past decade of accusing the U.S. and NATO of undermining Russia’s national security by extending their military infrastructure in Europe eastward to Russia’s borders.

During the 12 years that the U.S. has led the *Afghan war, there have been plenty of opportunities for the Kremlin to exploit U.S. failures, including the fraud-ridden Afghan presidential election in 2009 and, most recently, confirmation from Karzai that the CIA has delivered bags of cash worth tens of millions of dollars to his office since December 2001, when he became the country’s leader.

Nonetheless, there was little Kremlin-sponsored mockery of U.S. attempts to “export democracy” to Afghanistan, nor did it gloat over its favorite quibble — U.S. double standards — by pointing out that the U.S., which rarely misses an opportunity to criticize Russia’s high level of corruption, is a large source of corruption in Afghanistan.

What explains Putin’s uncharacteristic restraint regarding the U.S.-led military campaign in Afghanistan and his pragmatism concerning U.S. bases that may remain in the country after 2014?

The answer is that the security that the U.S. provides to Russia’s southern borders is so important to the Kremlin that Putin is willing, as a rare exception, to refrain from his trademark, overblown anti-U.S. rhetoric. Besides, Putin has plenty of other opportunities to play the anti-U.S card as he wishes — for example, banning U.S. child adoptions, hunting for U.S. “foreign agents” among nongovernmental organizations or blaming the opposition’s protests and the threat of an Orange-like revolution on the U.S. State Department.

There are only a few foreign-policy projects in the Kremlin’s current playbook that can help Russia extend its influence beyond its borders in a significant way. These include the proposed Eurasian Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization, or CSTO. These two important geopolitical projects can be realized, however, only if the former Soviet republics in Central Asia remain calm, peaceful and free of Islamic extremism.

But the CSTO hasn’t been able to agree on a collective military strategy to protect Central Asia from a likely Taliban infiltration after 2014. And Uzbekistan’s 2012 decision to leave the CSTO only made this task more difficult, if not impossible, to fulfill.

In the end, Putin understands that containing *Islamic extremism in Afghanistan and Central Asia is one of the most serious national security issues facing the country. Surely, Putin hasn’t forgotten how the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan in 1996, seven years after Soviet forces withdrew from the country, and how it established close ties to Islamic extremist groups from Central Asia, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, or IMU. In 1999 and 2000, the IMU operated out of Taliban-supported bases in northern Afghanistan to launch raids into Kyrgyzstan. The IMU was also implicated in an assassination attempt on Uzbekistan’s president in 1999.

Most important, Putin realizes that Russia has few resources on its own to prevent the Taliban and other extremist groups that are allied with it from returning to power in Afghanistan and from infiltrating Russia’s backyard in Central Asia. Putin also understands that the Americans will never be able to bring the ragtag Afghan army — which has been chronically crippled by gross incompetence, 90 percent illiteracy and a 25 percent desertion rate — up to level in which it would independently be able to prevent the Taliban from regaining Kabul.

Yet, as the U.S. prepares to withdraw by 2014, one thing is clear: Only when Putin senses a direct national security threat from Islamic extremists in Afghanistan and Central Asia is he willing to take a fair and balanced look at the U.S. If only Putin would use the same pragmatism in working with the U.S. on missile defense and a whole range of other important global issues, U.S.-Russian relations would surely reach a new level of trust and cooperation.

Michael Bohm is opinion page editor of The Moscow Times.

The Moscow Times

I did not click any links. The last two times I clicked links from kitty, my computer got hit with a major attack. My security alerted me, but I won't click her links again for awhile, even though she has interesting info sometimes.



Kalashnikitty‏@CustosDivini3h
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Russia Ready to Develop Long-Range Air Defense System with Turkey

Russia is ready to develop jointly with Turkey a long-range air defense complex based on S-300 surface-to-air missile systems, state arms seller Rosoboronexport head Sergei Ladygin said on Sunday.
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Kalashnikittyþ@CustosDivini3h
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http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-9-178220-A-nuclear-warning-from-India


A nuclear warning from India


Asif Ezdi
Saturday, May 18, 2013
From Print Edition


In a wide-ranging speech on India’s nuclear weapons’ programme and the country’s nuclear doctrine, Shyam Saran, chairman of India’s National Security Advisory Board, declared in New Delhi on April 24 that India’s plans to put in place a triad of land-based, air-delivered and submarine-based nuclear forces had made good progress.



At least two legs of the triad, including a ‘modest arsenal’, nuclear-capable aircraft and missiles, both in fixed underground silos and those mounted on mobile rail and road-based platforms, were fully operational. The third leg of the triad, namely a sea-based deterrent, was ‘work in progress’, Saran said, and was expected to be in place by 2015 or 2016.



Saran, a former foreign secretary, prefaced his speech with the caveat that it did not ‘in any way’ reflect the views of the Indian government. Nevertheless, as the Times of India reported, Saran was placing on record India’s official nuclear posture with the full concurrence of the highest levels of nuclear policy-makers in New Delhi.



A large part of the speech was devoted to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme. These weapons, Saran said, were focused ‘in large part’ on the threat from India, ‘real or imagined’, but he then went on to raise the question whether, ‘given the evidence available’ the ‘so-called Indian threat’ was the sole motivation driving Pakistan’s nuclear programme. There were indications, he said, of significant shifts recently in Pakistan’s nuclear posture, taking it from the declared ‘minimum deterrence’ to a possible second strike capability.



In this connection, he spoke of a ‘calculated shift’ from the earlier generation of enriched uranium nuclear weapons to a newer generation of plutonium weapons; progress claimed by Pakistan, but not yet fully verified, of miniaturisation of weapons, enabling their use with cruise missiles and with a new generation of short-range and tactical missiles; and the steady pursuit of improvement in the range and accuracy of delivery vehicles. Saran specifically mentioned the short-range nuclear-capable Nasr (Hatf IX) missile designed for battlefield use and first tested by Pakistan in April 2011. For good measure, Saran also added that “Chinese assistance to Pakistan’s strategic programme continues apace.”



If Saran is to be believed, this formidable body of ‘evidence’ is proof of a ‘Pakistani mindset which seeks parity with and even overtaking India’, a cardinal sin in India’s eyes. Behind this sinister design, Saran detects a Pakistani effort to win ‘prestige’ in the Islamic world.



Saran also sees another reason, even more convoluted and self-serving, for Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme. As he put it, the increase in the number of weapons, the planned miniaturisation of warheads and their wider dispersal were all designed to deter the US from undertaking an operation to disable, destroy or confiscate Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.



Saran would not have had to agonise so publicly about the ‘motivations’ for Pakistan’s programme to develop tactical nuclear weapons if he had admitted frankly that it is Pakistan’s response to India’s Cold Start doctrine. As the British weekly The Economist wrote on March 30, 2013, the Indian Army has been working for much of the past decade on this concept, which would see rapid armoured thrusts into Pakistan with close air support.



The idea, the newspaper wrote, is to inflict damage on Pakistan’s forces at a mere 72 hours’ notice, seizing territory quickly enough not to incur a nuclear response. India’s civilian officials and politicians, the paper said, unconvincingly deny that Cold Start even exists. Saran was in the same denial mode when he spoke.



Cold Start has recently been renamed by the Indians as ‘proactive defence’ strategy. In his speech, Saran tried to present it as legitimate response to a terrorist threat. Pakistan’s motivation, he said, was to ‘dissuade India from contemplating conventional punitive retaliation to sub-conventional but highly destructive and disruptive cross-border terrorist strikes such as the horrific 26/11 attack on Bombay.’



The Economist gave one reason at the tactical level and two at the strategic level why Cold Start might not work or be a practical policy. At the tactical level, the newspaper wrote, it assumes a capacity for high-tech combined-arms warfare that India may not possess. At the strategic level, first, it supposes that Pakistan will hesitate before unleashing nukes; second, ‘it sits ill with the Indian tradition of strategic restraint’.



Pakistan, of course, cannot be complacent and cannot make its policies on the basis of the best case scenario. India might not yet possess the capacity for launching blitzkrieg warfare by integrated battle group (IBG) formations but it is making preparations. Nor can Pakistan rely on ‘the Indian tradition of strategic restraint’ that The Economist speaks of, especially in view of the encouragement India is receiving from Washington to don the mantle of a global power and assume bigger responsibilities in the region.



For Islamabad, the best option therefore is to disabuse India of the notion that Pakistan will hesitate to use its nuclear weapons if India launches a lightning attack across the border to seize Pakistani territory. For deterrence to work, it is absolutely essential that the threat to use nuclear weapons must be credible.



That is why, in addition to strategic weapons that target urban centres, Pakistan must possess tactical nuclear weapons for theatre warfare to stop advancing armoured forces. Doing so will not lower the nuclear threshold, but will strengthen deterrence by reinforcing the possibility of the use of one kind of nuclear weapons with the probability that those of another kind will be used.



There is already a precedent. During the Cold War, the Warsaw Pact enjoyed conventional superiority over Nato in Central Europe. In order to guarantee that nuclear deterrence would work, Nato therefore deployed tactical nuclear weapons in the European theatre.



The possession of tactical nuclear weapons no doubt entails added responsibilities for their security and for command and control. Pakistan’s National Command Authority is no doubt taking this challenge very seriously. Washington has also taken up the question of Pakistan’s tactical weapons programme with Islamabad and pointed to the risk that they could be stolen or diverted. Pakistan’s rejection of these fears has apparently not dispelled these concerns completely.



Precisely because a tactical nuclear weapons capability would substantially enhance the credibility of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent, India has been trying to generate international pressure on Pakistan not to go ahead with the programme. In his speech, Saran warned that even a limited Pakistani nuclear attack involving short-range weapons would be met with a massive response from India and that the country would not hesitate to escalate the nuclear conflict to the strategic level. “If (India) is attacked with (nuclear) weapons,” he said, “it would engage in nuclear retaliation which will be massive....The label on a nuclear weapon used for attacking India, strategic or tactical, is irrelevant from the Indian perspective.”



The Indian dilemma is that after the nuclear tests it carried out in 1998 and the Pakistani response in kind, a balance of terror has been established between the two countries which virtually rules out a full-scale conventional conflict between them. As a consequence, Delhi has lost much of its ability to threaten Pakistan with India’s superiority in the conventional field. The Cold Start doctrine and the latest threat by India to respond to the use of tactical nuclear weapons by escalating the conflict to the strategic level are nothing but desperate and highly dangerous attempts by India to regain its former ability to threaten Pakistan.



Nuclear deterrence between Pakistan and India has worked so far. But India continues to nurse the dangerous illusion that it could wage a ‘limited’ conventional war under Pakistan’s strategic nuclear threshold. Our tactical nuclear weapons programme will fill this gap in our nuclear deterrent and is essential for its credibility. We must therefore remain steadfast in pursuing this programme, for our own security as well as for the peace and stability of the region.



The writer is a former member of the Pakistan Foreign Service.



Email: asifezdi@yahoo.com

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Israeli seeks interim deal with Palestinians

May 19, 2:31 PM (ET)
By JOSEF FEDERMAN

(AP) File - In this Jan.16, 2013 file photo, Yair Lapid, popular former TV anchorman and head of the new...
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JERUSALEM (AP) - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's senior coalition partner says that reaching a final peace agreement with the Palestinians is unrealistic at the current time and the sides should instead pursue an interim arrangement.

Finance Minister Yair Lapid's assessment, delivered in a published interview Sunday just days before the arrival of U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, throws a contentious idea into the mix as the U.S. searches for ways to restart peace talks.

It remains unclear whether the idea of a temporary arrangement will be raised during Kerry's visit later this week. In March, American officials confirmed that an interim arrangement, while not their preference, was one of the ideas being explored.

With the gaps between Israel and the Palestinians on many key issues seemingly unbridgeable, pursuing a Palestinian state with temporary borders has emerged as an option in recent months, particularly among Israelis searching for a way out of the status quo. The Palestinians have repeatedly rejected this option, fearing an interim deal that falls short of their hopes will become permanent.

In order to allay Palestinian concerns, Lapid told the Yediot Ahronot daily that President Barack Obama should set a three-year timeline for determining the final borders of a Palestinian state. As a gesture to the Israelis, he also called on Obama to endorse the position laid out by President George W. Bush in 2004, allowing Israel to keep some of the Jewish settlements it has built on occupied lands.

The issue of Jewish settlements has been at the heart of the current 4 1/2-year impasse in peace talks. The Palestinians have refused to negotiate, saying that continued Israeli construction in the West Bank and east Jerusalem is a sign of bad faith. The Palestinians claim both areas and the Gaza Strip, all captured by Israel in the 1967 Mideast war, for their future state.

Most Israelis, including Netanyahu, think that the continued control over millions of Palestinians would spell demographic suicide for Israel, and that creation of an independent Palestinian state is essential to preserving Israel's identity as a democracy with a Jewish majority.

"I believe in the two-state solution," Lapid told Yediot. "In my opinion, there is nothing more dangerous than the idea of a bi-national state."

At the same time, though, Lapid, like Netanyahu, rejects a full withdrawal to Israel's 1967 lines.

Lapid favors a broad pullout from the West Bank, including the dismantling of many settlements, but believes Israel should hold on to major "blocs" along the Israeli frontier where the majority of settlers live.

Lapid also believes that Israel should keep control of east Jerusalem, home to sensitive Jewish, Muslim and Christian religious sites. The Palestinians claim east Jerusalem as their capital.

Nimr Hamad, an adviser to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, gave Lapid's proposal a cool reception.

"We have heard this idea before and rejected it simply because we know the intention of Israel is to continue building on Jerusalem and other parts of the West Bank," he said. "The most important thing for us" is to agree on the final borders between Israel and a future Palestine, he added.

The issues of Jerusalem and final borders are just some of the explosive core issues that must be resolved. The Palestinians demand the "right of return" of millions of Palestinian refugees and their descendants, whose families lost property in what is now Israel. Israel rejects this out of hand, saying a mass influx would spell the end of the country.

Lapid said the disputes over Jerusalem and Palestinian refugees would "torpedo any Israeli-Palestinian dialogue" and it is preferable to set them aside and pursue an interim arrangement.

Further clouding the picture is the status of Gaza. Israel withdrew from the area in 2005, but two years later, the Islamic militant group Hamas, which opposes peace with Israel, seized control from Abbas' forces. The internal Palestinian division, with Hamas in Gaza and Abbas governing in the West Bank, is a major obstacle to implementing any peace deal.

Lapid burst onto the Israeli political scene in January's parliamentary election, turning his new Yesh Atid party into the second-largest faction in parliament. While focused largely on domestic and economic matters, he criticized Netanyahu's hard line toward the Palestinians and said he would not sit in a government that is not serious about pursuing peace.

In the Israeli coalition system, Lapid is both a key ally and potent rival of Netanyahu, capable of robbing the prime minister of his parliamentary majority at any time.

Netanyahu has never clearly spelled out his vision for Israel's final borders, but appears to be far more reluctant than Lapid to pull out from large parts of the West Bank.

Lapid told Yediot that he believes that Netanyahu, concerned about his political legacy, is serious about pursuing a peace agreement. He also believes there is enough support in the government, despite the presence of many pro-settler hard-liners, to approve a withdrawal from much of the West Bank.

Netanyahu's office declined comment.

Lapid also tossed criticism at the Palestinians, saying Abbas "is still not psychologically ready for an agreement with Israel, either partial or full." He accused the Palestinian leader of focusing too heavily on Palestinian victimhood, which he called "the main obstacle to reconciliation."

Kerry has been shuttling between the Israelis and Palestinians in recent months in search of a formula for restarting negotiations.

For now, he is focused on setting up a framework for a final peace deal. Recently, he won support from Arab leaders for a comprehensive peace with Israel in exchange for the establishment of a Palestinian state along the 1967 lines. To entice Israel, the Arab leaders said the final borders could be modified as part of an agreement between Israel and the Palestinians.

At Kerry's urging, both sides have said very little in public about his discussions with them.

Netanyahu's chief negotiator, Tzipi Livni, indicated in March that she does not oppose an interim agreement, saying Israel should think about "other possibilities" if a permanent deal couldn't be reached. Livni's office did not immediately return messages seeking comment. Lapid also did not return messages.

Dov Lipman, a lawmaker in Yesh Atid, said the party has not yet formally accepted the goal of an interim agreement, but that it was "in line" with its platform of seeking peace while retaining settlement blocs and protecting Israeli security.

"We are very pragmatic and know that this will be a process which requires trust building. Because we are sincere in our desire to make peace, we believe we will demonstrate that sincerity and trust can be developed as we move through the various stages," he said.

---

Mohammed Daraghmeh in Ramallah, West Bank, contributed to this report.

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Zimbabwe PM confident he'll oust Mugabe in vote

May 17, 12:02 PM (ET)
By GILLIAN GOTORA

HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) - Zimbabwe Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai said Friday he is poised to sweep to victory in upcoming presidential elections and return the nation to the world community after years of isolation.

"We are going to be new brooms" for change, he told about 500 party leaders and activists at a party conference to finalize a platform. He will be pitted against long-time ruler President Robert Mugabe, 89, in elections. No date has been set but it is expected to be held around September.

Tsvangirai described his Movement for Democratic Change party as the main champion of a new, reformed constitution accepted by 95 per cent of the vote in a March referendum.

"We have a new constitution, we must definitely have a new government" to open Zimbabwe for business and restore human rights and the rule of law, he said.

The conference, which went into closed session after Tsvangirai's speech, ends on Sunday with the release of an election manifesto. Leaks to local media organizations of its proposals suggest the MDC intends to cut spending on the military, traditionally dominated by Mugabe's ZANU-PF party loyalists, and offer retirement to long-standing military and police commanders. The proposal is fraught with peril since commanders of the security forces are Mugabe loyalists and some have been disrespectful toward Tsvangirai.

It also calls for a full overhaul of chaotic voters' lists and electoral laws the party says have led to vote rigging in the past.

Tsvangirai said a return to stability will create jobs in the battered economy that faces record unemployment since a meltdown triggered by the often-violent seizures of thousands of white- owned commercial farmS which began in 2000, collapsing the agriculture-based economy.

Reforms within the police and military are demanded in the coalition agreement between Tsvangirai and Mugabe forged by regional leaders after violent and disputed elections in 2008 but Mugabe has dismissed calls for such reforms. Senior generals have repeatedly vowed their allegiance to Mugabe and have refused to salute Tsvangirai since he became prime minister in 2009, arguing he did not take part in the guerrilla war that ended colonial rule in 1980 and brought Mugabe to power.

The independent legal and constitutional research group Veritas said in a report Friday that among reforms that have not been tackled as called for by the coalition agreement are ones on freeing up the media, including the sole broadcaster controlled by Mugabe, and the repeal of security laws stifling free expression and freedom of association.

Regional mediators are insisting that more progress be made on these reforms before elections are held. The chief mediator on Zimbabwe, President Jacob Zuma of South Africa, is expected to make a state visit to Zimbabwe sometime in the next few weeks.

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Politics, bribery charges swirl around Ugandan oil

May 18, 11:20 AM (ET)
By RODNEY MUHUMUZA

(AP) In this 2010 file photo, an oil well undergoes testing in the Lake Albertine region of...
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KAMPALA, Uganda (AP) - Even before the first drops flow, Uganda's oil sector is beset by bribery allegations against officials, tax-related cases abroad that cost the government millions in legal fees, and the alleged interference of a president whose firm control of the sector worries transparency campaigners.

Uganda, which has confirmed oil deposits of about 3.5 billion barrels, wants to extract at least 1.2 billion barrels over the next three decades. That figure could rise when more oil blocks are put up for exploration later this year, potentially making Uganda one of Africa's top oil producers.

But some experts and analysts worry that the country got off to a false start and remains too politically unstable to avoid some of the mistakes made by other oil-rich but otherwise poor countries.

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has reserved for himself the right to have the final say before any deals are signed with oil companies, saying that policy is to ensure the country's interests are always protected. But some critics say the president's close involvement is unhelpful to a country that needs to focus on building credible, transparent institutions to manage its oil wealth whether or not Museveni is around.

In a session of parliament that sparked public uproar, an independent lawmaker fingered three government ministers he believed had been bribed by foreign oil companies seeking contracts with Uganda's government. The charges, denied by the three officials, forced lawmakers across the political spectrum to order an investigation that many here hoped would be swift and decisive.

Almost two years later, that investigation is still ongoing and Gerald Karuhanga, the lawmaker who first alleged bribery, says he no longer looks forward to seeing the investigators' report, if it ever comes out.

"It's taking forever," he said. "It's really unfortunate. I don't think they are serious about what they are doing. We are no longer enthusiastic about its release."

Uganda has not had a single peaceful transfer of power since independence in 1962, and Museveni himself, in charge since 1986, faces growing pressure to retire. The East African country, which announced that it had commercially viable quantities of oil in 2006, hopes to become a producer of crude by 2016. That's about the time Museveni's current term expires, and many believe he will run again.

Museveni's "interference" in oil matters makes Uganda less attractive in the eyes of foreign investors, according to Eurasia Group, a political risk think tank with headquarters in New York.

"Rising internal party discord in the ruling (party) - younger members are pushing for new leadership - has triggered increased patronage payments by the president, especially over oil sector development," the group said in a report last month.

A new law gives the energy minister, a presidential appointee, the authority to issue and revoke oil contracts. Some say that, while it may have reduced officials' opportunities for corruption, the president's close involvement undermines the development of institutions such as a planned national oil company.

"The primary risk we have is that the decision-making has been largely controlled by Museveni," said Angelo Izama, a Ugandan analyst who is researching the political economy of Uganda's oil wealth as an Open Society Foundations fellow in New York. "But he won't be around as an effective leader in the next 15 years. The question remains, 'How will this kind of narrow decision-making fare once you have another president?' The risk is that the political transition in Uganda is unpredictable."

The global intelligence think tank Stratfor said in a recent report that "Museveni's system of patronage going forward will have to be based on oil revenue. The increasingly fractious nature of Museveni's support base means patronage will become even more important, making securing oil revenue even more vital."

Museveni has said he wants oil revenue to be spent on developing infrastructure - especially roads - across the country, raising expectations here. It may be years before the government earns any royalties from oil, but these days Uganda's parliament frequently receives petitioners presenting alternative ways to spend the cash. Tribes that live near the oil-producing areas want more.

Uganda and three foreign companies reached a deal last month that includes the construction of a pipeline to transport Ugandan crude for export through Kenya. Accordingly, France's Total and the Chinese offshore oil company CNOOC, which last year acquired two thirds of British explorer Tullow Oil's Ugandan assets for $2.9 billion, will build a refinery with the capacity to process 30,000 barrels each day. But a final deal has not been signed, in part because of what the president's office called a disagreement on how to develop the pipeline and refinery.

Uganda is pressing for the "unconditional expansion of the refinery size of 30,000 to 60,000 barrels of oil per day when the demand increases in future," according to the president's office.

Uganda's biggest risk is rushing to sign deals with foreign oil companies that are vastly more experienced, said Fred Muhumuza, an economist with a local think tank called the Economic Policy Research Center. Uganda, which is locked in disputes with oil companies over outstanding taxes, must gain full knowledge of its oil wealth before production starts, he said.

"As a country, Uganda needs to build the capacity to understand what's going on," he said. "Are we going to be able to know how much oil has been exploited and then tax the revenues appropriately?"

Current estimates of Uganda's oil wealth are based on about 40 percent exploration of an ecologically sensitive area around Lake Albert on the border with Congo. In the coming weeks Ugandan authorities are expected to invite oil companies to bid for at least 13 oil blocks in a new round of licensing that campaigners hope will be more transparent than the last time.

"I am hopeful that the government will go for open bidding," said Godber Tumushabe, who heads the Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment, a local governance think tank. "If they go and cherry-pick which company gets which block, then that will be a fundamental mistake in terms of building the systems that will protect the country against the oil curse."

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19 May 2013 Last updated at 13:22 ET

Syrian army storms rebel town of Qusair

Footage posted online purported to show the bombardment

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Syria conflict

Chemical attacks
'Chemical attack' town
Unwinnable war
No easy answers

Heavy fighting is reported in the besieged Syrian town of Qusair after state forces launched a major offensive to re-capture the rebel stronghold.

State TV says troops have captured key buildings in the town centre, a claim strongly denied by activists.

Rebels say 50 people have been killed while state media says 70 "terrorists" are dead.

Lebanese militants are said to be involved - Hezbollah siding with the government, Sunni gunmen with rebels.

The town - close to the border with Lebanon - has great strategic value. Its control would give the government access from the capital to the coast.
Continue reading the main story
Analysis
image of Jim Muir Jim Muir BBC News, Beirut

What appears to be a concerted government attempt to recapture Qusair from the rebels had been in the making for some time.

In a sense, Qusair had already fallen militarily, since the rebels appear to have lost control of most of the surrounding villages and countryside adjacent to the Lebanese border.

It adds to a string of setbacks rebels have suffered in recent weeks, especially along the Lebanese and Jordanian borders and around Damascus itself.

Rebel commanders blame their recent losses on the drying-up of arms supplies from outside. Qatar and others are reported to have recently cut deliveries, perhaps in response to US reservations about enabling a victory by a rebel movement in which the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front is playing a lead role.

Certainly the government forces, bolstered by apparently open-ended support from Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, have in recent weeks had a new spring in their step.

For the rebels, control of Qusair means they can come and go from Lebanon, says the BBC's Jim Muir, in Beirut.

The assault began early on Sunday with artillery fire and air strikes. In recent weeks the Syrian military has won back surrounding villages and countryside and had encircled Qusair.

Activists in the town posted video on the internet showing chaotic scenes at what they said was a field hospital flooded with casualties.

Our correspondent say some are clearly fighters while others are civilians.

The activists said the medical situation was drastic, with few resources to treat huge numbers of injured.

They said at least 50 people were dead and some 450 wounded.

State TV said that troops had taken over buildings in the centre, including the town hall, and were now chasing out "terrorists" - its term for the rebels.

Qusair resident and opposition activist Hadi Abdullah said civilians had sought shelter in basements.

He denied the regime had made advances in the town and said that the municipality building was destroyed in fighting months ago.

"It's the heaviest [shelling] since the beginning of the revolution," he said, quoted by AP news agency.

Earlier, Rami Abdel Rahman, of UK-based activist group the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said troops were advancing from the south and Hezbollah fighters were "playing a central role".
Photo supplied by Qusair Lens shows result of air strike in Qusair. 19 May 2013 This image taken by a resident of Qusair purports to show damage caused by airstrikes

Earlier this month, Syrian forces reportedly dropped leaflets on the town, warning that it would come under attack if opposition forces failed to surrender.

In another development, the Lebanese National News Agency reported that eight Soviet-made Grad rockets had struck the north-eastern town of Hermel.

The agency said the short-range missiles were presumably fired from Syria but had caused no damage or casualties.

News of the assault on Qusair came as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad vowed to continue the "fight against terrorism".

In his first interview since the US and Russia announced plans for a peace conference, Mr Assad told an Argentine newspaper that the meeting should focus on stopping the flow of money and weapons to "terrorists".

He rejected suggestions he might stand down, saying a captain did not abandon his ship and presidential elections next year would determine his future.
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The conference, scheduled for June, will try to persuade the Syrian government and opposition to accept a deal, including an immediate cessation of violence.

The plan, based on a UN-backed proposal, would see the establishment of a transitional government that could include officials serving under President Assad and members of the opposition.

However, neither the Syrian government nor the opposition has yet made a commitment to attend the meeting.

The top US general described Russia's decision to send missiles to Syria as "ill-timed and unfortunate".

Gen Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the shipment would "embolden the regime and prolong the suffering".

Without confirming the shipment, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the supply of missiles to Syria did not break any international rules.

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“Start Quote

A small hole has been smashed into the tiled floor, a pair of disposable surgeon's gloves lie abandoned nearby. The plants around the site appear to have withered and died, showing signs of possible contamination”

image of Ian Pannell Ian Pannell BBC News, Saraqeb

Is Syria using chemical weapons?

Russia, a key ally of President Assad, has a small naval maintenance facility at the Syrian deep-water port of Tartus.

Last week, the BBC's Ian Pannell was shown video and eyewitness testimony that appear to corroborate allegations of chemical weapons' use in the Syrian town of Saraqeb.

Turkey has given US President Barack Obama what it says is evidence of chemical weapons use in Syria.

The US had warned that such a development would be a "red line" for possible intervention.

But Mr Obama said more specific details were needed about alleged chemical attacks.

Russia has consistently opposed any international intervention in Syria, along the lines of the Libyan conflict in 2011.

The UN said last week that the death toll in Syria had reached at least 80,000 since the conflict began in March 2011. Activists said the number could be as high as 120,000.

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Hezbollah steps up Syria battle, Israel threatens more strikes
AMMAN | Sun May 19, 2013 2:38pm EDT

(Reuters) - Lebanese Hezbollah militants attacked a Syrian rebel-held town alongside Syrian troops on Sunday and Israel threatened more attacks on Syria to rein the militia in, highlighting the risks of a wider regional conflict if planned peace talks fail.

Activists said it was the fiercest fighting in Syria's two year-old civil war involving Hezbollah, a Shi'ite group backed by Iran which they said appeared to be helping President Bashar al-Assad secure a vital corridor in case Syria fragments.

Speaking from Qusair near the border with Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, activist Hadi Abdallah said Syrian warplanes bombed the town in the morning and shells were hitting the town at a rate of up to 50 a minute. At least 32 people were killed.

"The army is hitting Qusair with tanks and artillery from the north and east while Hezbollah is firing mortar rounds and multiple rocket launchers from the south and west," he said.

Assad poured scorn on the idea that a U.S.- and Russian-sponsored peace conference planned for Geneva next month would end fighting that is deepening the sectarian fault lines between Sunnis against Shi'ites across the Middle East.

"They think a political conference will halt terrorists in the country. That is unrealistic," he told the Argentine newspaper Clarin, in reference to the mainly Sunni groups seeking to unseat him.

Assad declared "No dialogue with terrorists", but it was not clear from his remarks whether he would agree to send delegates to a conference that may falter before it starts due to disagreements between its two main sponsors and their allies.

The opposition will agree its stance on the proposed peace conference in a meeting due to start in Istanbul on Thursday, during which it will also appoint a new leadership.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country was "preparing for every scenario" in Syria and held out the prospect of more Israeli strikes inside Syria to stop Hezbollah and other opponents of Israel getting advanced weapons.

"We will act to ensure the security interest of Israel's citizens in the future as well," Netanyahu said.

Israel has neither confirmed nor denied reports that it attacked Iranian-supplied missiles stored near Damascus this month that it believed were awaiting delivery to Hezbollah, which fought a war with Israel in 2006 and is allied with Assad.

REBELS UNDER PRESSURE

Attacks by troops and militias loyal to Assad, who inherited power in Syria from his father in 2000, have put rebel brigades under pressure in several of their strongholds across the majority-Sunni country of 21 million people.

In one attempt to strike back, opposition sources said rebel fighters had abducted the father of Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad in the province of Deraa, one of many tit-for-tat kidnappings being carried on by both sides.

"Mekdad's nephew was taken before, and exchanged for Free Syrian Army (rebel) prisoners. The speculation is that a similar deal will be struck for his father," said activist Al-Mutassem Billah of the opposition Sham News Network.

In the fighting near Lebanon, rebel fighters clashed with mechanized Syrian army units and Hezbollah guerillas in nine points in and around Qusair, 10 km (six miles) from the border, activists said.

The region is needed by Assad, who is from the Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam, to secure a route from Hezbollah's strongholds in the Bekaa to areas near Syria's Mediterranean coast where many Alawites live, they said.

Opposition sources say Syria's coastal region could serve as an Alawite statelet if Assad should lose control of Damascus, a potential fragmentation of Syria along ethnic and sectarian lines that raises the prospect of many more deaths.

Sources in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley said shells fired by rebels had hit the edges of the town of Hermel, a Hezbollah stronghold, but no casualties were reported.

Syrian Television said troops "leading an operation against terrorists in Qusair" had reached the town centre.

"Our heroic forces are advancing toward Qusair and are chasing the remnants of the terrorists and have hoisted the Syrian flag on the municipality building. In the next few hours we will give you joyous news," the television said.

Abu Imad, another activist in the Qusair region, said the rebel grip was tenuous but the army was far from in control.

"If Qusair falls, it will be a big problem because the regime will be in control of most of the countryside south of the city of Homs and the rebel forces holding Old Homs will be squeezed," he said.

The United Nations says at least 80,000 people have been killed in the conflict, which started with peaceful protests against four decades of rule by Assad and his late father.

(Additional reporting by Suleiman al-Khalidi in Amman and Jeffrey Heller in Jerusalem; writing by Khaled Yacoub Oweis and Philippa Fletcher; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

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Analysis & Opinion

Obama insists U.S. won’t tackle Syria alone
Alleged organ-eating, executions raise concern over support for Syria’s rebels

A harbinger of things to come I'm afraid....

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Video posted online purportedly shows 7 Egyptian security personnel kidnapped in Sinai

By Tony G. Gabriel And Sarah El Deeb, The Associated Press May 19, 2013 3:30 PM

CAIRO - Seven men purported to be the members of Egypt's security forces kidnapped by suspected militants last week appeared in a video posted online Sunday and urged the government to secure their release by meeting their captors' demands.

The video, posted on YouTube, is the first sign of the six policemen and one border guard since they were abducted by gunmen on the road from the Sinai Peninsula to Cairo on Thursday. Egyptian security officials said they believed the men in the clip were the missing personnel and that authorities were treating the matter seriously, while the father of one of the captives identified his son in the video.

The kidnappings have embarrassed Islamist President Mohammed Morsi's government, and are seen as a test of his administration's ability to restore security to the volatile peninsula. They also have renewed a national debate on how best to tackle the troubles in northern Sinai, which borders Gaza and Israel. While many called for a swift security response, some argued that such a move would spark a backlash.

Sinai has been wracked by lawlessness since the 2011 uprising that ousted longtime authoritarian leader Hosni Mubarak. Criminal gangs, militants and local tribesmen disgruntled with what they say is state-sponsored discrimination have exploited the security vacuum to smuggle weapons, attack security forces and kidnap tourists for use as bargaining chips to push for the release of relatives held in Egyptian jails.

In the video released Sunday, the men, blindfolded and holding their hands on their heads, introduce themselves one by one.

One of the men identified himself as Cpl. Ibrahim Sobhi Ibrahim and asked Egypt's leaders to free jailed Sinai militants.

"The demands of the brothers Mr. President is the release of political prisoners from Sinai," he says. "Please, Mr. President, release them quickly. We can no longer tolerate torture."

The video closes with the men pleading to the camera: "Rescue us Mr. President. We can't take it. Rescue us, people." At one point, the tip of a rifle appears over the head of some of the captives, before it is swiftly pulled back out of the screen. There were no visible signs of torture on the young men.

Ibrahim also appeals to Morsi to consider that Israel negotiated for the release of one of its soldiers. He was referring to Gilad Shalit, who spent five years in captivity with Palestinian militants in Gaza. He was released in 2011 in a prisoner swap for hundreds of Palestinians held in Israeli jails. Egypt helped broker the deal.

"If we are dear to you, like Gilad Shalit was dear to Israel...We are seven Egyptian soldiers," Ibrahim says.

It was not immediately clear who posted the video, which was uploaded to a YouTube account created Sunday.

An Egyptian security official identified the captives in the video as the missing personnel. He said a copy of the video was sent to security agencies, but it was not immediately clear by whom. Another security official in Cairo said families and friends of the captives were called in to identify their relatives.

Both officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the media.

The names of five of the missing also correspond with names previously obtained by The Associated Press.

Security officials say they believe the assailants carried out the kidnapping after being angered over reports that a prisoner, Ahmed Abu Sheta, had been tortured while in jail. Abu Shehata was convicted of attacking a police station in 2011 that killed police officers.

Authorities have been in contact with the kidnappers through mediators. The kidnappers have demanded the release of several militants held in Egyptian jails, including some convicted during Mubarak's rule, officials say.

The kidnappings are seen as a test of the government's ability to combat security threats in Sinai. A brazen attack on border guards last year left 16 soldiers killed, in the bloodiest against troops in modern history, and the culprits remain unidentified.

In a statement Sunday, the president said that there is "no room for dialogue with the criminals" responsible for the kidnappings. The statement followed a meeting Morsi held with politicians from largely Islamist groups to brief them on efforts to secure the captives' release.

Morsi pledged on Thursday to secure the men's release, and called for the protection of both the "abducted and the kidnappers."

Following Sunday's meeting, Younes Makhyoun, a leading member of the ultraconservative Islamist Salafi al-Nour party, said the president is keen to avoid a security response.

"Even though there are voices who are demanding security interference and decisiveness, (Morsi) said he is keen on saving the soldiers peacefully, and is keeping the engagement with local tribesmen," Makhyoun told The Associated Press. "The security solution would be easiest, but he wants to preserve lives."

Makhyoun said his party is also against a security solution because it would lead to bloodshed and won't resolve the problem — a lingering feeling of injustice by many of those who were convicted and arrested during the Mubarak era. He said the kidnappers' demands include the release of as many as 600 prisoners, some of whom were convicted before 2011. A way out, he said, would be to offer retrials for those convicted in the past or in haste.

Mohammed Abdel-Hamid, the father of one of the policemen, told the private Al-Youm TV station that his son was in the video. He said he would rather see his son dead than have his release negotiated.

Expressing their anger at the recent kidnapping, scores of policemen blocked a commercial border crossing with Israel Sunday to protest the abduction of their colleagues. The policemen closed the main gates of the Awja crossing with chains, leaving around 40 trucks stranded, according to local official Ahmed Osman.

On Friday, policemen blocked another border crossing into Gaza.

___

Associated Press writer Ashraf Sweilam contributed to this report from south Sinai.

Hummm......

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http://guardianlv.com/2013/05/hamid-karzai-seeks-indian-aid/

Hamid Karzai Seeks Indian Aid
Added by James Turnage on May 19, 2013.
Saved under Afghanistan, Breaking News!, Headlines, James Turnage, World
Tags: spot

There is no other place in the world that possesses the capability of mass destruction and international upheaval as the region which contains Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. Pakistan and India both have nuclear weapons, and there have been tensions between them for decades. Hamid Karzai is asking India for military aid amid increasing friction along Afghanistan’s border with Pakistan.

Pakistan has just concluded elections, and the new regime has indicated that it wishes to stabilize relations with neighboring India. Afghanistan’s armament discussions with India will undoubtedly place the new Islamabad government in a precarious position.

Bordered on the northwest by Afghanistan, and on the southeast by India, Pakistan will feel pressure from their neighbors on both sides.

Karzai’s spokesman Aimal Faizi said the Afghan leader would discuss the flare-up on the Durand Line, the colonial-era border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, in addition to ways to strengthen Afghan security institutions.

“Afghanistan has already agreed and signed a strategic pact with India and based on that agreement, India assists Afghanistan on several grounds, including the military sector,” Faizi said.

“In order to strengthen Afghan security forces, we will ask India to help us with military needs and shortages,” he said.

Pakistan had offered a strategic alliance with Kabul, but they were unresponsive to the idea.

Increased border skirmishes on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border are the cause of Karzai’s actions. Both sides have been accused of giving sanctuary to militant groups, resulting in a clash at their disputed border on the Durand Line.

Afghanistan has also accused Pakistan of using tanks and heavy artillery in battles along its eastern Nangarhar province.

A NATO diplomat in Kabul said Afghanistan was also seeking to build up its air force and had sought aircraft to beef up border defenses.

“The Afghans are taking the border problem very seriously. They have asked us for equipment; emotions are very high,” the diplomat said.

Shyam Saran, chairman of India’s National Security Advisory Board, declared in New Delhi on April 24 that India’s plans to put in place a triad of land-based, air-delivered and submarine-based nuclear forces is making good progress.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s development of its nuclear arsenal claims to be the result of India’s arms escalation. Pakistan claims to have newer ‘weapon’s based plutonium’ weapons, and have the capability to miniaturize them. This new ability would allow them to deliver a nuclear attack with a weapon as small as a cruise missile. None of this has been verified.

Saran makes the claim that Pakistan is attempting to secure a prominent place in the Islamic world.

In turn, Pakistan is claiming that their efforts to develop more efficient tactical weapons, is in directly aimed at protecting themselves from India’s aggressive posturing.

The former Soviet Union and the United States cold war nuclear escalation resulted in both countries becoming aware that destruction of the entire world was a possibility. Today, Russia and the U.S. are attempting to reduce their numbers of nuclear warheads.

With both Pakistan and India possessing nuclear capability and Iran’s efforts to become a member of the nuclear community, focus and serious concern must be aimed at this volatile region.

James Turnage

The Guardian Express

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/19/islamists-clash-police-tunisia

Islamists clash with police in Tunisia

Government banned annual rally of Ansar al-Sharia, which openly supports al-Qaida, saying it posed a threat to society

Reuters in Kairouan
The Guardian, Sunday 19 May 2013 10.18 EDT

Supporters of Ansar al-Sharia clashed with Tunisian police on Sunday after the government banned the hardline Islamist group's annual rally, saying it posed a threat to society. Ansar al-Sharia, which openly supports al-Qaida, is considered the most radical of the Islamist groups to have emerged in Tunisia since the revolution in 2011 that overthrew the secular dictator Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali.

In the central city of Kairouan, where the rally was to have been held, supporters threw stones at police, who fired teargas in response, a witness said.

Police also prevented the group holding a smaller religious meeting in the Ettadamen district of Tunis on Sunday, prompting clashes with the Salafists who chanted "the rule of the tyrant should fall", according to one witness. Police fired teargas and shots into the air to disperse about 500 protesters there who were throwing stones at officers. The state news agency reported that one protester had died.

The interior ministry said on Friday that it had banned the gatherings of the group, "which has shown disdain for state institutions, incited violence against them and poses a threat to public security". Ansar al-Sharia said police had arrested its spokesman, Saifeddine Rais, a claim confirmed by a security source.

Hardline Islamist Salafists are seeking a broader role for religion in Tunisia, alarming the secular elite, which fears their agenda is to impose strict views on people and compromise individual freedom, women's rights and democracy. Tunisian police blamed a Salafist for the assassination of the secular opposition politician Chokri Belaid in February, which provoked the biggest street protests in Tunisia since the overthrow of Ben Ali.

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News / Asia
UN Calls on North Korea to Stop Missile Launches
VOA News
May 19, 2013

The United Nations chief has voiced hope that North Korea will abandon its missile tests, after the Stalinist state fired three short-range missiles into the sea on Saturday.

Speaking in Russia Sunday, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called on Pyongyang to refrain from future launches and return to stalled nuclear talks with world powers.

Ban is in the Black Sea resort town of Sochi to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin for talks on Syria.

Despite Ban's plea, Seoul said North Korea fired a fourth missile Sunday afternoon into the East Sea - also known as the Sea of Japan.

A South Korean defense ministry spokesman said on Saturday that the North's intent was not clear. He said South Korea's military was watching for any additional launches and "possible provocation."

Earlier this year, Pyongyang threatened nuclear strikes on South Korea and the U.S. in light of annual U.S.-South Korean military drills and U.N. sanctions imposed on the North after its third nuclear test in February.

About two months ago, North Korea fired two short-range missiles into the sea off its east coast. Pyongyang routinely conducts such exercises in an effort to improve its arsenal.

Some information for this report was provided by AP and AFP.

Related Articles

North Korea Launches Short-Range Missiles into Sea
US Official: China to Continue North Korea Sanctions
Report: UN Panel Finds Sanctions Hinder N. Korea Nuclear Program

Tick, tick, tick....

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More South Koreans support developing nuclear weapons
Growing concern about North Korea's nuclear program has led many in South Korea to favor the idea of building atomic weapons. Japan too is discussing such a move.

By Barbara Demick, Los Angeles Times

May 18, 2013, 6:40 p.m.

SEOUL — Perhaps it is merely basic human desire to keep up with the neighbors, but an increasing number of South Koreans are saying that they want nuclear weapons too.

Even in Japan, a country still traumatized by the legacy of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, there is a debate about the once-taboo topic of nuclear weapons.

The mere fact that the bomb is being discussed as a policy option shows how North Korea's nuclear program could trigger a new arms race in East Asia, unraveling decades of nonproliferation efforts. The government in Pyongyang conducted its third nuclear test in February and is believed to be preparing a fourth.

In South Korea, the pro-nuclear faction is becoming surprisingly mainstream. Its most prominent champion is Chung Mong-joon, a ruling party legislator and a scion of the Hyundai business dynasty.

"Suppose you have a dangerous neighbor with a gun," Chung said in a recent interview. "You have to take measures to protect yourself. And being a gun control advocate isn't going to help you."

Chung shocked attendees at the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference last month in Washington by calling for South Korea to build its own bomb. He argues that it is time to try something new after two decades of failed diplomacy and engagement with North Korea.

"We have to admit that everything we've tried has failed," Chung said.

To some extent, it is a matter of national pride with a touch of machismo. South Korea's economy is 20 times the size of the North's, but the North has gate-crashed the elite club of nuclear-weapon states.

Separate opinion polls taken this year by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies and Gallup Korea showed nearly two-thirds of South Koreans in support of nuclear weapons, preferably under their own control.

"It is mostly an emotional, knee-jerk response to the frustration of the North Korean nuclear threat," said Daniel Pinkston, a Seoul-based analyst for the International Crisis Group. "People tend to say, yes, they want nuclear weapons, but not if they think through the costs and consequences."

Under the international Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty that went into force in 1970, only the United States, China, Russia, Britain and France are recognized as nuclear weapons states, with the understanding that they will share the peaceful benefits of nuclear energy.

If South Korea were to build its own nuclear weapons, it would have to withdraw from the treaty, as did North Korea.

Another increasingly popular view holds that the United States should reposition tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea that were withdrawn in 1991. The withdrawal was a key demand of the pro-democracy camp that dislodged South Korea's military dictatorship.

"It would provide a trump card that would enable a breakthrough in the North Korean nuclear problem. Most of all, it would become a game-changer in the geopolitical and strategic dynamics surrounding the nuclear crisis," says a much-discussed essay written last year by Cheon Seong-whun of the Korea Institute for National Unification, one of South Korea's most respected nuclear analysts.

South Korea had a secret nuclear weapons development program in the 1970s under Park Chung-hee, the late military dictator whose daughter, Park Geun-hye, is the current president. It was abandoned under pressure from the United States.

President Park, who took office in February, hasn't picked up the call to develop nuclear weapons. But the current administration is bristling at the limitations that result from the nonproliferation pact. Its civilian nuclear reactors use fuel purchased from the United States under a 1974 nuclear cooperation.

South Koreans want to renegotiate that agreement, which expires next year, to lift a ban on reprocessing the spent nuclear rods, putting them in a better position to eventually develop their own nuclear weapons.

Japan and South Korea are in a similar position in that they are both heavily dependent on civilian nuclear technology that could eventually be spun off for military use.

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party has pushed to keep nuclear reactors open — despite the antinuclear sentiments that followed the 2011 post-tsunami disaster at Fukushima — by arguing that their reactors are in themselves a nuclear deterrent.

"What they are saying in a tacit manner is that 98% of our program is peaceful, but we have the potential for something else," said Narushige Michishita, a professor at the Tokyo-based National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.

Outspoken hawks such as Shintaro Ishihara, former governor of Tokyo and a leader of the Japan Restoration Party, openly call for the development of nuclear weapons.

"Your words lack clout unless you own nuclear weapons," Ishihara provocatively told reporters at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan in November. "Russia took our land, and it has nuclear weapons. China also has nuclear arms, and it is trying to grab Japan's land."

Peter Hayes, a leading nonproliferation advocate and director of the Berkeley-based Nautilus Institute, says Japan could probably develop a nuclear weapon in five to 10 years if it chose, but will more likely conclude that it is safer under the U.S. nuclear umbrella.

"This is mostly chest-thumping and an attempt to put pressure on China and the U.S. to do something about North Korea," Hayes said. As for South Korea's nuclear ambitions, he says, "This is a dumb, stupid idea, but it makes good press."

barbara.demick@latimes.com

Copyright © 2013, Los Angeles Times

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Prominent anti-Taliban police chief killed in western Afghanistan
By LWJ Staff
May 19, 2013 1:38 PM

A prominent ant-Taliban police chief in western Afghanistan, 2nd Lieutenant Abdul Ghani, was shot and mortally wounded by Taliban assassins late on Friday night, according to Afghan officials. Abdul Ghani served as the police chief for the Khak-i-Safid district in Farah province, and was best known for leading an effective crackdown against Taliban insurgents in the restive district, eliminating key Taliban leaders and disrupting insurgent activities since last year.

Some additional details were reported by Pajhwok Afghan News:

Khak-i-Safid district police head 2nd Lt. Abdul Ghani was shot dead by two motorcyclists in the Charbagh area of the provincial capital.

Farah Civil Hospital Director Dr. Abdul Hakim Rasuli said Ghani was brought to the hospital in wounded condition. However, he succumbed to his critical injuries on the way to the PRT medical facility in the city.

The Taliban, meanwhile, claimed responsibility for killing Ghani, who recently survived two assassination attempts during this past year.

Farah province was part of the third phase of the transition of security responsibility from the International Security Assistance Force to Afghan control, and responsibility for five of Farah's 10 districts -- including Khak-i-Safid -- was transferred to Afghan security forces on Dec. 12, 2012.

Within two weeks of the transition, Abdul Ghani was targeted by the Taliban in a roadside bomb attack. The blast tore through Ghani's police truck as he and his men traveled through the Dahna-i-Khost area of Khak-i-Safid district, injuring police chief Ghani along with five policemen.

The assassination of Abdul Ghani has been a longstanding objective for Taliban militants active in Farah province, and his death will undoubtedly impair the Afghan government's ability to continue its counterinsurgency campaign in the Khak-i-Safed district.

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US drones kill 4 'militants' in first strike in Yemen in a month
By Bill Roggio
May 18, 2013

US drones launched the first strike in Yemen in a month, killing four "militants" in an attack on a vehicle carrying explosives in a southern town plagued by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

The remotely piloted Predators or the more deadly Reapers launched several missiles at a truck "carrying grenades and explosive belts" in the Al Mahfad area in the southern province of Abyan on Friday night, AFP reported. Four suspected members of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula were killed in the airstrike.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula fighters and leaders have regrouped in the Al Mahfad area after being driven from cities such as Zinjibar, Jaar, Lawdar, and Shaqra during a Yemeni military offensive that began in the spring of 2012 [see Threat Matrix report, AQAP regroups in Abyan province]. AQAP controlled the cities in Abyan, as well as other cities and towns in neighboring Shabwa province, after launching its own offensive in 2011.

Since losing control of large areas of Abyan and Shabwa, AQAP has spread out into the provinces of Aden, Al Baydah, Al Jawf, Damar, Hadramout, Hodeida, Ibb, Marib, Saada, and Sana'a. Of the 29 drones strikes recorded by The Long War Journal over the past 11 months, 25 have taken place in the provinces of Aden, Al Baydah, Al Jawf, Damar, Hadramout, Hodeida, Ibb, Marib, Saada, and Sana'a.

The US has launched nine drone strikes in Yemen so far this year. The last strike took place on April 21 in the Wadi Abida area of Marib province; two AQAP operatives were reported killed.

In 2012, the US launched 42 drone strikes in Yemen against AQAP and its political front, Ansar al Sharia. The previous year, the US launched 10 drone and air strikes against the al Qaeda affiliate.

Although five senior AQAP operatives were killed in strikes in Yemen in 2012, the group's top leadership cadre remains intact. In January, the Yemeni government claimed that Said al Shihri, the deputy emir of AQAP, died following an attack last fall; AQAP has not confirmed his death, however, and recently released a statement that hinted he may be alive.

The US has targeted both senior AQAP operatives who pose a direct threat to the US, and low-level fighters and local commanders who are battling the Yemeni government. This trend was first identified by The Long War Journal in the spring of 2012 [see LWJ report, US drone strike kills 8 AQAP fighters, from May 10, 2012]. Obama administration officials have claimed, however, that the drones are targeting only those AQAP leaders and operatives who pose a direct threat to the US homeland, and not those fighting AQAP's local insurgency against the Yemeni government.

For more information on the US airstrikes in Yemen, see LWJ report, Charting the data for US air strikes in Yemen, 2002 - 2013.

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North Korea fires fourth short range missile in two days worrying UN chief Ban Ki-moon

From: AFP
May 20, 2013 8:36AM


N Korea reportedly tests another missile

North Korea has test-fired a short-range missile, its fourth in two days, an official from Seoul says.
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UN chief Ban Ki-moon has warned of a ''dangerous escalation'' after North Korea test-fired a short-range missile off its east coast, its fourth in two days, despite pleas to ease tensions.

''I hope that North Korea will refrain from such further actions,'' Ban told the RIA Novosti news agency.

Ban was in Moscow on Sunday following talks on Friday with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Black Sea resort of Sochi.

CHINA INVESTIGATES NORTH KOREA 'BOAT HIJACK'
NKOREA-SKOREA-US-MILITARY-MISSILE-ECONOMY-KAESONG-FILES

North Korea on May 19, 2013, test-fired a short-range missile into the East Sea (Sea of Japan) this afternoon, a defence ministry spokesman told AFP without elaborating, a day after the North fired three short-range missiles off its east coast.

North Korea sometimes launches short-range missiles for tests or as part of military drills.

The United States and South Korean forces had been on heightened alert for a medium-range ballistic missile test amid tensions triggered by North Korea's nuclear test in February.

Ban says Pyongyang should resume negotiations.
NKOREA-SKOREA-US-MILITARY-MISSILE-ECONOMY-KAESONG-FILES

North Korea on May 19, 2013, test-fired a short-range missile off its east coast, its fourth in two days, despite pleas from South Korea and the UN chief to halt the launches at a time of high tensions. AFP PHOTO / FILES / Ed Jones

''It is time for them to resume dialogue and lower the tensions. The United Nations is willing to help,'' Ban was quoted as saying.

Ban added that he hoped Russia would ''use its contacts to lower the tensions and strengthen dialogue with North Korea''.

Speaking later through his spokesman Martin Nesirky, Ban said he ''remains concerned about provocations and tensions on the Korean Peninsula, particularly given the risks of miscalculation and dangerous escalation.''

''He stands ready to help facilitate the process of peace and trust-building on the Korean Peninsula,'' Nesirky added.

Moscow was Pyongyang's most important ally in the Soviet era, although its influence over the nation has waned considerably in the past two decades as its financial assistance to North Korea shrinks.

Pyongyang fired a guided missile into the East Sea (Sea of Japan) on Sunday afternoon, a defence ministry spokesman told AFP without elaborating.

On Saturday, the North fired three short-range missiles off its east coast, apparently as part of a military drill.

Angered by the tougher UN sanctions and by a joint US-South Korean military exercise, the North for weeks threatened nuclear or conventional attacks on Seoul and Washington.

The South and its US ally had earlier been watching for any test by the North of medium-range Musudan missiles.

But a US defence official said early in May the two mid-range missiles had been moved from their launch site.


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North Korea is ninety percent bluff: Sheridan

Greg Sheridan thinks the nuclear threat from Kim Jong-un is bluff designed to manipulate the Chinese as well as home-based enemies.

11 April 2013The Australian
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However South Korea's unification ministry, which handles cross-border relations, said the short-range launches also pose threats to the region and should be stopped immediately.

"We find it deplorable that the North does not stop provocative actions such as the launch of guided missiles yesterday," said unification ministry spokesman Kim Hyung-Seok, before the latest exercise.

"We call on the North to take responsible actions for our sake and for the sake of the international community."

KIM'S CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER

The US State Department urged Pyongyang to exercise restraint, without specifically commenting on the launches.

It was unclear what type of missiles were fired Saturday and Sunday.

Seoul military officials quoted by Yonhap news agency said they may be KN-02 surface-to-surface weapons with a range of up to 160 kilometres, or rockets of at least 300mm in calibre fired from a multiple launcher.

Park Yong-Ok, a former South Korean deputy defence minister, described the short-range missile launches as an act of "desperation" by the North's leader Kim Jong-Un, after his country's recent threats met a strong response from Seoul and Washington.

US President Barack Obama and the South's President Park Geun-Hye, at a summit this month, vowed to offer no concessions in dealing with Pyongyang.

"Such a stern response must have baffled the North greatly and Kim Jong-Un... must have turned to missile tests to seek ways out of this deadlock," Park said in a TV interview on Sunday.

Seoul said efforts to present a united front were jeopardised by last week's surprise visit to North Korea by an adviser to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as "unhelpful" in trying to preserve a united front against Pyongyang.

Abe said Sunday he would seek talks with Pyongyang to try to settle the nagging issue of its kidnapping of Japanese, without risking his country's alliance with Washington and Seoul.

Apart from security matters, inter-Korean relations have been soured by the suspension of operations at a jointly-run industrial estate.

The Kaesong Industrial Complex, established just north of the border in 2004 as a rare symbol of cooperation, fell victim to the two months of elevated military tensions.

The North barred South Korean access to the zone and pulled out its own 53,000 workers early last month. Seoul withdrew the last of its nationals early this month.

When the South Koreans left, they loaded up cars with bundles of products, but were still forced to leave much stock behind.

The North last week rejected the South's call for talks on removing goods from the complex, calling it "a crafty ploy" to deflect blame for the suspension of operations.

"It is very regrettable that the North denigrates our offer for talks... and shifts blame for the suspension of the Kaesong complex to us," unification ministry spokesman Kim said Sunday, urging Pyongyang to come forward for talks as soon as possible.

THE THREAT THAT WON'T GO AWAY.

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ASIA NEWS
Updated May 19, 2013, 2:04 p.m. ET

North Korea Fires Another Missile Sunday

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By KYONG-AE CHOI And ALASTAIR GALE

SEOUL—North Korea on Sunday fired a short-range missile into the sea off the eastern coast of the Korean peninsula following three similar launches Saturday, once again stirring tensions that had appeared to ease in the wake of a recent series of threats directed at South Korea and the U.S.

The latest missile firing came after the South Korean government on Sunday condemned Pyongyang's earlier launches and urged it to come to the negotiating table over the jointly run Kaesong Industrial Complex to allow South Korean companies to withdraw their raw materials and finished goods.

On Sunday, U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon also asked the North to refrain from further missile tests.

The missiles posed no danger to neighboring countries. Analysts said the launches, which aren't uncommon, were likely intended as a protest against joint South Korean-U.S. naval drills last week. North Korea, a financially beleaguered state hit by fresh U.N. sanctions following its nuclear test in February, may expect the launches will prompt the offer of dialogue from the U.S., they said.

"North Korea will achieve nothing by threats or provocations, which only further isolate [North Korea] and undermine international efforts to ensure peace and stability in Northeast Asia," said Caitlin Hayden, spokeswoman for the National Security Council in the U.S. "We continue to urge the North Korean leadership to heed President Obama's call to choose the path of peace and come into compliance with its international obligations."

South Korea's defense ministry said North Korea fired three missiles into waters off the Korean peninsula on Saturday, followed by a fourth missile Sunday. North Korea's short-range missiles have ranges of around 160 kilometers (100 miles).

"In our judgment, the missiles are short-range guided missiles, not midrange missiles such as the Musudan," South Korean Defense Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said. It remains unconfirmed what type of short-range missiles were fired over the weekend.

Attention has been focused on the deployment of two Musudan missiles on North Korea's east coast last month for an expected test firing. Officials and media reports earlier this month said North Korea had moved the Musudan missiles away from the firing locations.

The Musudan has a range of up to around 4,000 kilometers, meaning it could threaten U.S. bases in the region, Guam and Japan. Tokyo put its missile defenses on alert in response to reports of the Musudan deployment.

North Korea launches smaller missiles with ranges of a few hundred miles, such as Scud variants, in test firings from its coasts a few times each year. The last reported firing was in March.

North Korea made no immediate statement about the latest launches.

Shin Jong-dae, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said the launches were likely a means of drawing the attention of the international community, particularly from the U.S. "North Korea is an expert at crisis diplomacy, or crisis marketing," Mr. Shin said.

The firings came after Glyn Davies, the top U.S. envoy on North Korea, wrapped up a visit to Tokyo, Beijing and Seoul last week for talks on dealing with North Korea.

Pyongyang's actions, including threats of attack that escalated in recent months, are widely viewed as an attempt to generate enough fear to prompt other countries to consider concessions on security and aid, a gambit it has used repeatedly in the past.

Those threats peaked during annual military drills held by South Korea and the U.S. through the end of April, which the North portrayed as a prelude to war. The heated rhetoric eased following the end of the drills, but fresh naval exercises early last week prompted renewed warnings of counterattack from Pyongyang.

The latest drills were led by the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz, a move North Korea's state media called "a grave military provocation."

The missile launches also came during a low in inter-Korean relations as Pyongyang has rejected repeated calls from Seoul for dialogue over their closed joint industrial complex. The closure of the Kaesong complex—the last outpost of inter-Korean economic cooperation—in turn followed weeks of near-daily verbal attacks by North Korea against the South and the U.S. after the U.N. imposed tougher sanctions against Pyongyang following its third nuclear test in February.

Operation of the Kaesong plant has been suspended since April 9 when North Korea pulled its workforce out of it. South Korean companies that operated in Kaesong are financially troubled.

"We urge North Korea to stop all military provocations such as the missile firing and to abide by the international guidelines when it comes to the protection of assets of companies [that invested in the Kaesong complex]," Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Hyung-suk said in a briefing Sunday afternoon.

The industrial park opened in late 2004 and was a product of the first inter-Korean summit meeting in 2000 between South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il. More than 120 South Korean firms employed about 53,000 North Koreans to make basic products such as shoes and bags.

Seoul said it was monitoring for any further military activity in the North following missile launches Saturday and Sunday. "South Korea's military is on high alert to prepare for any hostile acts from the North following the guided-missile launches today," defense ministry spokesman Mr. Kim said.
—Dion Nissenbaum in Washington contributed to this article.

Write to Alastair Gale at alastair.gale@dowjones.com

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May 19, 2013, 6:40 AM

Long-Awaited Sukuk Can’t Rescue Egypt’s Economy Alone, Say Analysts

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By Reem Abdellatif and Nicholas Casey

Egypt’s Islamist government, in need of finance, has been desperately looking for something to help its ailing economy, which has been on brink of crisis since an uprising toppled former leader Hosni Mubarak two years ago.

The Sukuk, or Islamic bond, is now being held up as that something, with some in the government touting them as a savior of the Egypt’s economy. Bankers, analysts and investors appear less excited.

The country’s Muslim Brotherhood, which controls the presidency and the country’s acting legislature, recently passed a Sukuk, or Islamic bonds law, laying out a Shariah-friendly method it says can help boost its crumbling economic infrastructure.

President Mohammed Morsi ratified the law in April after months of discussion between the country’s law makers and financial authorities. They touted the law as a new alternative to international loans and foreign investment, which have virtually disappeared due to political unrest.

The country’s former finance minister, Al Mursi Al-Sayed Hegazy, repeatedly told local media that global investors and other countries were waiting for Egypt to enact the law in order to use it as a tool for investment. He also said the law was expected to bring in Egypt more than $10 billion yearly in investments.

But many banking analysts and investors say that while Sukuk is a good tool, expecting that much money to flow into Islamic bonds is unrealistic.

“I’ve always been a supporter of Sukuk but unfortunately what we’ve done here is blown it out of proportion,” said Karim Helal, financial adviser and Chairman of Egypt’s Association of South East and Asian Nations business association. “It will never replace conventional tools such as foreign investments and it will not solve your budget deficit,” he added.

Because fixed income and interest bearing bonds are not allowed in Islam, Sukuk bonds are structured to comply with Islam’s investment principles, which essentially do not permit paying or charging interest fees. But, Sukuk issuance is new to Egypt, a country that has gone through two governments as it struggles to implement economic reforms and legislations after the revolution that toppled Mubarak in February 2011.

Even passing the law proved a challenge: Egypt’s Al Azhar, its Islamic university, had objected to the the scheme for most of April claiming it actually didn’t comply with Islamic law. A committee of its religious scholars has been given the power to review Islamic legislation under the new constitution, and onlookers have watched to see how it might be used. After some negotiations with the Muslim Brotherhood, the legislation was allowed forward.

Still, when it comes to how effective the instruments might be in raising funds, many remain skeptical.

“The government has gotten ahead of itself, to say that Sukuk can bring in $10 to 15 billion yearly is completely unrealistic,” said David Mikhail, a banking analyst at Cairo-based Beltone Financial. “Egypt’s credit rating is the lowest its been in years and to be asking for investor confidence in terms of Sukuk or any other tool is unrealistic even though the appetite for Sukuk is high,” he added.

Experts say that Sukuk, like any other financing vehicle, need to be implemented in a country with a sound legal system and stable government.

“Egypt, both the government as well as the private sector, definitely needs funds for building badly needed infrastructure, such as power plants, highways, roads, hospital, schools, universities and so on,” said Muddassir Siddiqui, chief executive officer of ShariahPath Consultants.

Siddiqui, a Shariah scholar and lawyer, believes that the success of the Islamic Bonds law in Egypt depends on several factors, including the existence of stable laws and political stability, which the country currently lacks.

“The second factor pertains to the Shariah framework and conditions for issuing Sukuk which would be laid down by the Central Shariah Committee,” he said, referring to the country’s arbiter on Islamic law. “Pronouncements of the Central Shariah Committee will have far reaching effects on the success or the failure of the Sukuk issuance program. If improperly or inadequately formulated, they would have serious negative effects on the success of the program.”

Essentially, the Sukuk market is not the same as a stock market, rather it is a bond market, Siddiqui said.

“The main challenge facing the Central Shariah committee would be to find a Shariah basis for issuing Sukuk which would satisfy the vast majority of Sukuk investors,” he added.

Sukuk is used in several advanced economies in the world such as Britain, Malaysia, and the United Arab Emirates and has been proven to be largely successful. Investors in Sukuks are usually looking for financial tools that would allow them fixed returns with capital guarantees.

But Egypt’s economy is far cry from those in the Gulf. Last week, Standard & Poor’s cut its rating for Egypt’s foreign and domestic to “CCC+” and its local and foreign short term rating to “C.” While Egypt has made progress in boosting its currency reserves in recent weeks with loans from Qatar and Libya, that still hasn’t been enough to convince analysts that Egypt is on the verge of a turnaround.

Widespread dissatisfaction with the Muslim Brotherhood has many warning of political instability in the months to come, particularly as it decides how to negotiate with the International Monetary Fund over burdensome wheat and energy subsidies. “It’s politically difficult to implement changes because the headlines will be ‘Subsidies Cut for the Poor, even if there are offsetting measures,’” says Trevor Cullinan, the S&P analyst who covers the country’s sovereign debt.

Those weren’t issues in Malaysia, now considered a Sukuk darling. And Malaysia deployed Islamic finance as a means of financing large infrastructure projects in an expanding economy, rather than as a means to diversify funding when times were tough.

“Malaysia put Islamic finance at the center of a cohesive development strategy,” says Paul-Henri Pruvost, an S&P analyst focusing on Sukuk.

It’s not clear if that’s the case in Egypt, he says.

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Qatar aid breeds sceptism

Critics allege Doha’s short-term goal is to prop up Brotherhood ahead of elections

Zawya
Published: 12:34 May 18, 2013

Cairo: Qatar, a tiny country which has wielded oversize influence in revolutions across the Middle East, is now at the centre of a battle for clout in the region’s traditional military and political juggernaut, Egypt.

On May 9, Qatar released $3 billion (Dh11.01 billion) in low-interest loans to Egypt, the latest in a total of $8 billion in assistance it has provided in the past two years to Cairo’s Muslim Brotherhood-led government.

The move, which the government didn’t announce, was confirmed by a central bank official.

While many Egyptians are grateful for the cash, some worry that Qatar’s support of Egypt’s Islamist-leaning government marks Qatar’s latest attempt to gain influence in the region. Such suspicions have fuelled Qatar flag-burnings in Egypt in recent weeks — protests echoed by rallies in Libya, Tunisia and the Palestinian territories against Qatari meddling.

Many countries are seeking a stake in Egypt, said Abdul Moati Zaki Ebrahim, a founder of the Freedom and Justice Party, the Brotherhood’s political arm. “We are the gateway to the Middle East,” said Ebrahim, who is also an executive of the FJP’s political affairs committee.

Asked whether he was worried about Qatar trying to influence Egypt politically, Ebrahim said: “If the big powers aren’t working, why shouldn’t the little powers fill [the gap]? There’s an old saying: Someone asks a cat, ‘Why are you behaving like a lion? And the cat says, ‘because the lion is behaving like a cat’.” Qatar’s lifeline has allowed Cairo’s embattled government to hold off, for now, on agreeing to a $4.8 billion International Monetary Fund loan — one that would require it to slash social programmes just ahead of elections slated for later this year.

The Qatari aid underscores how Egypt, suffering from steep economic declines, is looking well beyond its traditional backers in Washington. In recent weeks, Egyptian President Mohammad Mursi has been seen “begging” for money in stately visits from Moscow to Doha, his opponents say, hurting the pride of a nation that has long seen itself as the region’s kingmaker.

Egypt is striving to have good relations with the world, counters Brotherhood spokesman Jihad Al Haddad, adding that Cairo’s previous dictatorial regime hurt the country by throwing its weight behind one power. “We no longer have a single ally called the United States. We have a menu of possible allies,” he said.

Critics allege that while Doha’s near-term goal appears to be to prop up the Brotherhood before elections, its longer-term aims are less clear.

“Egyptians aren’t stupid — they know this isn’t money given because Qatar is grateful for our historical contributions to the region, but because [Qatar] is mysterious and wants something,” said Hamdeen Sabahi, a secular opposition leader of the National Salvation Front who finished in third place in Egypt’s presidential elections last year.

“Egyptians feel that Qatar is not supporting them as a whole but [rather] the Muslim Brotherhood,” he said in a recent interview at his home.

The Qatari Embassy in Cairo and its foreign-affairs ministry in Doha didn’t respond to requests to comment. Criticism of Qatar’s role in Egypt boils down to opposition forces “that can’t attack their president, [so] they are attacking Qatar for helping,” said Nasser Bin Hamad Al Khalifa, Qatar’s former ambassador to the US.

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Ties to Brotherhood

Many of the concerns centre on how Qatar has leveraged its historically deep ties with the Brotherhood, an expansive regional movement long suppressed by Egypt and other governments. Since early 2011, Qatar led a push to aid and arm Islamist-leaning rebel factions in Libya and Syria. It has also continued to support Brotherhood’s Palestinian branch, Hamas, designated by the US as a terrorist organisation. When Hamas broke with its long-time ally Syrian President Bashar Al Assad and threw its support behind Syria’s rebels, the group moved its headquarters from Damascus to the Qatari capital, Doha, marking a major shift in the region’s political dynamics.

American officials have long worried that Qatar is playing a double game — hosting a US military base but also supporting Islamist movements that are opposed to American interests. By supporting so many sides, US officials have said, Qatar is able to navigate the Middle East’s complex political networks and support whichever movement stands to come out on top.

Qatar is locked in a battle for clout with Saudi Arabia, another traditional Sunni power in the region — which, alongside the United Arab Emirates, has historically opposed the Brotherhood in the region and has clashed with Mursi’s government.

Russia, too, is considering a “sizable” loan to Egypt after Mursi visited Moscow last month, according to Russian and Egyptian officials. As the regime of President Al Assad slips in Syria — one of Russia’s only Arab allies, and the host to a Russian naval base — Moscow may see Cairo as a new avenue for influence.

—Zawya

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Clashes kill two in Lebanon’s Tripoli

Running gun battles in the flashpoint northern city

AFP
Published: 20:35 May 19, 2013
Gulf News

Beirut: At least two people were killed and six others wounded in running gun battles in the flashpoint northern Lebanese city of Tripoli, a security source told AFP on Sunday.

The source identified the dead as 22-year-old Mohammad Yousuf, from the Alawite Jebel Mohsin area, and a 13-year-old boy from the neighbouring Sunni area of Bab Al Tebbaneh.

One person was wounded in Jebel Mohsin and five others were wounded in Bab Al Tebbaneh, the source said.

“Lebanese military forces are in the area and responding to the sources of gunfire,” he added.

The largely Sunni city is home to a small community of Alawites, an offshoot of Shiite sect to which Syrian President Bashar Al Assad belongs.

Violence has regularly broken out between the two communities as the conflict in neighbouring Syria - pitting Al Assad’s regime against a Sunni-led opposition - raises tensions.

The fighting erupted as Syrian troops launched an assault against the rebel stronghold of Qusayr, in Syria’s central province of Homs.

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Iran hangs 2 for spying for Israel, US

Tehran accuses arch foes of waging campaign of sabotage against its nuclear programme

AFP
Published: 16:26 May 19, 2013
Gulf News

Tehran: Iran hanged two convicted spies on Sunday, one found guilty of working for Israel, the other for the United States, the Tehran prosecutor’s office announced.

Mohammad Heydari was convicted of “receiving payment to provide intelligence on various security issues and national secrets in repeated meetings with the Mossad,” Israel’s intelligence agency, a statement said.

Koroush Ahmadi was found guilty of “providing intelligence on various issues to the CIA.”

The statement did not give further details.

Iran accuses its arch foes Israel and the United States of waging a deadly campaign of sabotage against its nuclear programme and has announced a string of arrests of alleged agents in recent years.

In the past years, Iran has arrested many people allegedly linked to several foreign spying networks.

In May last year, Iran executed Majid Jamali Fashi after convicting him of spying for the Mossad and of playing a key role in the January 2010 assassination of a top nuclear scientist in return for payment of $120,000 (Dh440,600).

Iran is also still holding US-Iranian national, Amir Mirzai Hekmati, a former US Marine, whom it accuses of being an operative of the US Central Intelligence Agency, despite vigorous denials by both Washington and his family.

In 2009, three US hikers were detained on charges of illegally entering Iran and espionage. The female hiker, Sarah Shourd, was freed in 2010 on bail, and the other two, Shane Bauer and Josh Fattal, were released in September 2011 also on bail.

In May 2012, an Iranian court sentenced 13 people after finding them guilty of espionage for the Israeli agency.

A Tehran court said the convicts were lured into spying for Mossad by overseas-based satellite TV networks and clever advertisement campaigns.

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Iran Revolutionary Guard commander warns against post-election turmoil

Possible riot in Tehran could spread to other regions, commander warns

AP
Published: 16:10 May 19, 2013
Gulf News

Tehran: Several Iranian newspapers are citing a senior Revolutionary Guard commander as warning his forces will be on watch for possible unrest after the June 14 presidential election.

Col. Rasool Sanaeirad says a “possible riot in Tehran could spread” to other regions. He claims chances for turmoil are heightened because Iran is for the first time holding both presidential and municipal balloting at the same time.

The remarks appear to be a warning to the opposition against staging protests. They were published on Sunday in several papers, including the pro-reform Bahar daily.

All key policies in Iran are made by the clerics and their inner circle, including the powerful Guard.

The Guardian Council, the clerical watchdog that runs the elections, is expected on Tuesday to announce a handful of candidates for the ballot.

The comments by Col. Rasool Sanaeirad point to a wide-ranging effort by Iranian authorities to intimidate opposition groups that could use the June 14 voting for possible political demonstrations.

Related Links

- Internet in ‘coma’ as Iran election looms

Pro-reform groups have been under relentless pressure and crackdowns since major protests following the disputed re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2009. Ahmadinejad is not running in this election because Iran’s constitution bars him from seeking a third term.

But the entry of former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani into the race has re-energised reformists and brought backlash from hardliners. The Guardian Council, a group controlled by the ruling clerics, vets all candidates and a final ballot list is expected on Tuesday.

Sanaeirad was quoted on Sunday as saying the “election is unpredictable,” but did not elaborate.

He also warned that a “possible riot in Tehran could spread” to other regions, claiming chances for turmoil are heightened because Iran is for the first time holding both presidential and municipal balloting at the same time.

The remarks further suggest that more security controls could be imposed before the election, such as restrictions on the internet, which was used as the critical tool by the opposition Green Movement in 2009.

Sanaeirad’s comments were published in several papers, including the Bahar daily.

Despite frequent denials by officials that internet service will be reduced during the elections, many web users have complained that services have become very slow and many websites have been blocked, including the pro-Rafsanjani Aftabnews.ir and Meyarnews.com, a site backing another hopeful contender, Ahmadinejad’s close aide, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei.

On Friday, a member of the influential parliamentary committee of national security and foreign policy, Mohammad Saleh Jokar, said the government will block “enemies” using the internet to “instigate people as we witnessed in 2009.”

The pro-reform Aftab daily mocked the snail’s pace of the internet, calling it “escargot” and suggesting authorities would be better off to fully halt the net.

Iranians use proxy servers and other methods to bypass censors and access many popular websites, including Facebook and Twitter, and news sites such as BBC and Voice of America.

Presumed candidates on the ballot include Rafsanjani and rivals supported by the ruling clerics, such as top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, Tehran mayor Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and former foreign minister Ali Akbar Velayati.

A major question is whether the Guardian Council will clear Ahmadinejad’s choice, Mashaei. His chances are severely hampered by his association with the president, who has fallen out of favour with the ruling theocracy over his challenges to the authority of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

On Friday, Council chief Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati said the body may disqualify candidates who seek full relations with the United States. Jannati mocked nominees who hope the international sanctions over Tehran’s disputed nuclear programme will end if the country restores relations with the US.

No high-profile candidate has proposed full restoration — Tehran and Washington have had no diplomatic ties since 1979 — but Rafsanjani has suggested that better relations are possible.

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News / Africa
Nigeria says 14 Militants, 3 Soldiers Killed in Latest Fighting
Heather Murdock

May 19, 2013
ABUJA — The Nigerian military says it has killed 14 Boko Haram militants and arrested 20 others. The military says three soldiers died in the fighting Sunday and another is missing.

It was only last Tuesday that Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan ordered the immediate deployment of thousands of soldiers to the north to fight Boko Haram, a militant group that has been blamed for thousands of deaths in the past four years. But as of Sunday, the military says 24 Boko Haram members have been killed and another 85 captured in the offensive.

VOA could not independently verify the military claims because roads to affected areas are blocked and communications networks are sporadic at best. Some analysts fear the military, which international rights groups have accused of extra-judicial killings and other abuses, could alienate the people by killing civilians along with suspected militants.

A VOA reporter in Maiduguri, the epicenter of the insurrection, says many locals are suffering through a 24-hour curfew and largely lack the ability to communicate with the outside world. But he says many residents believe the offensive could ultimately bring peace to the region, as long as the soldiers treat residents with care.

Ismail, a schoolteacher in Maiduguri, said “The state of emergency to some large extent (is) a welcome development. But the only fear is how the security operatives will engage themselves in this operation with the rules of engagement in the back of their minds so that we will have minimal collateral damage, unlike the previous times.”

The northern offensive was ordered after an escalation of Boko Haram-related violence recent months. Officials say Boko Haram, which claims to want to impose Islamic law and secure the release of its imprisoned members, now has heavy artillery, like anti-tank guns and machine guns mounted on trucks.

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