WEATHER 5/21 Widespread Extended Period of Severe Weather Still Likely, 24 FATALITIES IN MOORE, OK

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
Spring Has Sprung!

Between now and out to Tuesday a large portion of the Great Plains and Upper Midwest will encounter repeated bouts of severe weather, significant rainfall and flash flooding.

Time to get into "Storm Mode" and review your preperations,

- Do you have a personal plan of action?

- Does your workplace have a Severe Weather Plan?

- Do you play keep up, not catch up with the weather forecast?

- Do you know the difference between a Watch and a Warning?

- Do you have a NOAA Weather Radio with tone alert and battery backup that can give you instant official warnings 24/7 even when you are asleep?


Here is the latest Public Severe Weather Outlook from the Strom Predicton Center. I would expect this to be updated later today,

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

EASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND MIDDLE/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
ROCKIES MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN A RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS IN THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..HART.. 05/19/2013

$$

Here are the SPC Convective Outlooks or the next three days,

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
 

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Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
Decoding the techno-babble/weather-porn in today's Day1 Convective Outlook it looks like the Great Plains are under what some would call a "loaded gun" scenario where a capping inversion is strong enough to inhibit high levels of instability until enough daytime heating becomes available to "break cap" and initiate potentially explosive severe weather once the storms do start in mid to late afternoon.

Tornado activity will likely be the most severe in individual cells moving ahead of the nearly stalled front. Large hail and straightline wind damage will be more common in organized squall lines along with Flash Flooding.

The period right around and immediately after local sunset will often see a spike in activity as the surface temps and humidity remain high from daytime heating but the upper air quickly cools as the sun sets. This was evident during the Texas event a few days ago IMO.

Moderate Risk days can start out very slowly and are predicated on a whole bunch of parameters coming together. Exact locations and exact timing will not be clear until severe storms do actually begin to develop. Then things can move rather rapidly. On the other hand it is not unknown for a Moderate Risk day to essentially "bust" and create few storms rising to severe levels. That is one reason we do not see any watches being posted at this time. Once Watches are posted, expect events to move rapidly.

Regardless, the point is that there is abundant potential for severe weather in and near the prescribed areas of concern.

From a user standpoint it means that one just needs to aware of the current forecast and to be aware of changes to that forecast.

The next SPC Day1 Covective Outlook will be issued around 11:30 am CDT,

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
 
Doesn't this kind of weather happen nearly every Spring? Almost seems a little late this year.

And nearly every Fall brings us the tropical storms.

Given a choice tho' - I'll take the 'canes any day over the tornadoes...
 

Bad Hand

Veteran Member
It has been raining here for the last 2 1/2 days, it is light rain but constant. In the mountains around us it is snowing, this storm is headed east.
 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
Day1 Convective Outlook just updated at 11:15 am CDT. A Slight Risk area has now been assigned to Georgia. The other risk areas remain essentially unchanged,


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...MID/UPPER FLOW HAS ALREADY
STRENGTHENED ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN A BELT CURVING
CYCLONICALLY OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. WITHIN THIS
REGIME...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES/SPEED MAXIMA HAVE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EMERGE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE ADDITIONAL
PERTURBATIONS CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

EAST OF THE ROCKIES...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN VERY STEEP OVER A
BROAD AREA...FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SOUTHWARD TO GULF COASTAL AREAS. ATOP A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
AND SIZABLE CAPE ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...INCLUDING ANOTHER OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI.

ADDITIONALLY...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK CYCLONIC BELT OF
FLOW DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST
REGION...LIFT AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL DO
NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION IN STRONGER STORMS...PARTICULARLY
WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF AN ORGANIZING STORM CLUSTER NOW
ADVANCING WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF ATLANTA GA.

...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
ONE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE IS AIDING INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOME SEVERE
HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL MAY EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY... BUT A MORE
SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER RISK MAY AWAIT FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKENING INHIBITION ACROSS IOWA NORTHWARD INTO
PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN LATER TODAY.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THIS INITIAL IMPULSE...AS ANOTHER CONTINUES TO PIVOT EAST OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO
BECOME FOCUSED ALONG/SOUTH AND EAST OF A REMNANT CONVECTIVELY
GENERATED BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY CURVES FROM THE MISSOURI OZARKS
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO
SOUTHERN KANSAS IS STILL EXPECTED...AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID
REFRESH APPEARS REASONABLE SUGGESTING INITIATION OF STORMS ALONG THE
INTERSECTION OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AN EASTWARD ADVANCING
DRYLINE...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BY
19-20Z.

AIDED BY FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM
NOSING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...UPSCALE
CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO A SUBSTANTIAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...40-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF THE RISK FOR TORNADOES. HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...MAY BE
SUPERCELLS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE EVOLVING CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AS WELL AS WITH STORMS INITIATING AND
ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE DRYLINE...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA. FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE 850 MB JET ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL MAINTAIN TORNADIC POTENTIAL
WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ONE OR TWO LONG-LIVED TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.

..KERR/ROGERS.. 05/19/2013
 

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Mzkitty

I give up.

Tornado watch issued for portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa until 9 p.m. CT
- @stormchaser4850

3 mins ago from www.spc.noaa.gov by editor

------------

WOUS64 KWNS 191808
WOU0

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
110 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

TORNADO WATCH 180 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

IAC005-011-013-015-017-019-023-025-033-037-041-043-055-059-061-
063-065-067-069-073-075-079-081-083-089-091-105-109-113-127-131-
147-151-169-171-187-189-191-195-197-200200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0180.130519T1810Z-130520T0200Z/

IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLAMAKEE BENTON BLACK HAWK
BOONE BREMER BUCHANAN
BUTLER CALHOUN CERRO GORDO
CHICKASAW CLAY CLAYTON
DELAWARE DICKINSON DUBUQUE
EMMET FAYETTE FLOYD
FRANKLIN GREENE GRUNDY
HAMILTON HANCOCK HARDIN
HOWARD HUMBOLDT JONES
KOSSUTH LINN MARSHALL
MITCHELL PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS
STORY TAMA WEBSTER
WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WORTH
WRIGHT


MNC003-013-015-019-023-025-033-037-039-043-045-047-049-053-055-
059-063-067-073-079-083-085-091-093-099-101-103-109-121-123-127-
129-131-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-157-161-163-165-169-171-173-
200200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0180.130519T1810Z-130520T0200Z/

MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANOKA BLUE EARTH BROWN
CARVER CHIPPEWA CHISAGO
COTTONWOOD DAKOTA DODGE
FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN
GOODHUE HENNEPIN HOUSTON
ISANTI JACKSON KANDIYOHI
LAC QUI PARLE LE SUEUR LYON
MARTIN MCLEOD MEEKER
MOWER MURRAY NICOLLET
OLMSTED POPE RAMSEY
REDWOOD RENVILLE RICE
SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY
STEARNS STEELE STEVENS
SWIFT WABASHA WASECA
WASHINGTON WATONWAN WINONA
WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE


WIC011-091-093-095-109-200200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0180.130519T1810Z-130520T0200Z/

WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BUFFALO PEPIN PIERCE
POLK ST. CROIX


ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FSD...DMX...DVN...


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0180.html
 

Ravekid

Veteran Member
New house is 12-24 months away. Since we will likely be in the new home hopefully twenty years or longer, I'm trying to decide if I want a basement (extra storage space) or if it would be better to have a crawl space (might be cheaper than a basement) and add a slab sunroom to the back of the home with an underground shelter unit as part of the room.
 

summerthyme

Administrator
_______________
New house is 12-24 months away. Since we will likely be in the new home hopefully twenty years or longer, I'm trying to decide if I want a basement (extra storage space) or if it would be better to have a crawl space (might be cheaper than a basement) and add a slab sunroom to the back of the home with an underground shelter unit as part of the room.

I can't imagine EVER regretting putting in a full basement as opposed to a crawl space. And you'll NEVER find another cheaper time to put a basement in, than before the house is built!

We have a half basement (full basement under the 1 story part we added to the 2 story section after our house fire... there is only a crawl space under the 2 story part). It's amazing how stuffed that half basement is... hubby keeps hinting that we really need to dig out the other half and turn it into a full basement. That's not happening, but I've learned that it's almost impossible to have "too much" basement space.

Summerthyme
 

Mzkitty

I give up.
Nickel to quarter-sized hail reported in Gage, Nebraska - @breakingweather

4 mins ago from www.accuweather.com by editor

@TWCBreaking tweeted:

#Tornado watch just issued for much of central and eastern Oklahoma until 11pm CT. Includes Okla. City and Tulsa.

21 mins ago from twitter.com by editor
 

Mzkitty

I give up.

Tornado warning issued for Liberty and Long Counties in Georgia until 4:45 p.m. ET -
@TWCBreaking

1 min ago from www.weather.com by editor

Tornado warning issued for Wichita, Kansas, area until 3:30 p.m. CT
- @NWSWichita

3 mins ago from kamala.cod.edu by editor
 

Mzkitty

I give up.
@TWCBreaking tweeted:

Spotter report: "Large cone (#tornado) doing damage" 6 miles N of Clearwater, KS. TAKE COVER in the city of #Wichita!!

10 mins ago from twitter.com by editor


Oops, I should have checked again real quick.

:eek:
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
NewsBreakerþ@NewsBreaker2m
RIGHT NOW: Twitter user @Nana_Greta shows daughter at gas station in middle of tornado in Wichita, Kansas pic.twitter.com/F9i6EmxlDr
https://twitter.com/NewsBreaker/status/336227263408373761/photo/1
View photo Reply


NewsBreakerþ@NewsBreaker2m
DEVELOPING: Emergency responders report roofs ripped off 2 homes on 119th St in Wichita, KS after tornado - @WCL_Shawn

Expand


NewsBreakerþ@NewsBreaker4m
BREAKING: Reports of multiple injuries in Wichita, KS after confirmed #tornado in area - @WCL_Shawn

Expand



NewsBreakerþ@NewsBreaker6m
BREAKING PHOTO: "direct hit downtown and airport" Photo of Massive tornado as it hit Wichita, Kansas. - @NanaGreta pic.twitter.com/OS7RCwRWkg

(same pic I posted link to above)
 

Mzkitty

I give up.
Janjah33: Stay safe my friends in The line of tornadoes. Praying for you. #tornado
Sunday, May 19, 2013 5:19:21 PM

purdueturfy: Those tornadoes in Wichita look nasty #prayers #tornado
Sunday, May 19, 2013 5:11:10 PM


Tornado warning for Howard County, Iowa, until 5 p.m. local time
- @TWCBreaking

2 mins ago from www.weather.com by editor

Reports of severe damage after tornado hits Wichita, Kansas; roofs ripped off houses, police say - @TWCBreaking

3 mins ago by editor

@GrantMeech12 tweeted:
Photo: Reported tornado grounds near Clearwater, Kansas - @GrantMeech12

22 mins ago from twitter.com by editor
 

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Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
http://kfor.com/on-air/live-streaming/

debris OKC tornado

KFOR-TV livestream




ETA:the tornado that was live from chopper has already dissipated, but conditions still ripe

ETA2: tornado 2 forming right now live, said lot of traffic on road, debris in air from 2nd
Westminster heading towards Arcadia

two funnels, possible another ready for development
 

Mzkitty

I give up.
:eek:

JesusJuice68: #tornadoes #tornado #okc Tornado Warning for Oklahoma City Metro. I live in the OKC Metro and near newcastle/moore. Wish me luck!
Sunday, May 19, 2013 5:20:16 PM
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
NewsBreaker‏@NewsBreaker56s
WATCH LIVE: Tornado the ground right now in Edmond OK - half mile S of 2nd street - @NEWS9 http://bit.ly/10eINnI pic.twitter.com/E5jA8ecQlJ


View photo Reply

NewsBreaker‏@NewsBreaker2m
BREAKING: Tornado on I-35 right now in Edmond Oklahoma - @NEWS9 (WATCH LIVE)
http://bit.ly/10eINnI pic.twitter.com/7QmHb4C180


View photo


NewsBreaker‏@NewsBreaker4m
BREAKING PHOTO: Tornado on the ground...2nd street in Edmond, OK, outside Oklahoma City "lots of debris" @NEWS9 pic.twitter.com/HI5ckkHKNn
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
debris from new tornado 2 miles NW of Luther, OK (OKC area)

multiple vortex tornado, major debris Cantorri says "this is gonna be big"


http://kfor.com/on-air/live-streaming/



ETA: tornado going back up, Luther, OK has damage, but still rapid rotation, ripe for another funnel to drop.

Live coverage from chopper is awesome.

I hope everyone has taken cover.

Starting to drop again right now. (4:52 PM Central)
 

Mzkitty

I give up.
This is Central time, meaning it's now!

DanLarsen88: #tornado threat including long lived, strong, and damaging tornadoes is increasing. This cell is could produce!!! http://t.co/DBrJMDyfbE
Sunday, May 19, 2013 5:42:58 PM
 

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Mzkitty

I give up.

Tornado Warning for Butler, Cowley and Sumner Counties in Kansas until 5:30 p.m. local time
-@weatherchannel

3 mins ago from www.weather.com by editor

Elephant trunk tornado reported east of Caldwell, Kansas
- @breakingweather

7 mins ago from www.accuweather.com by editor

@MPrendergastTX tweeted:
Photo: Reported tornado hits near Edmond, Oklahoma - @MPrendergastTX

9 mins ago from twitter.com by editor
 

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Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
lilbitsnana, for some reason, i can't seem to view anything on that link. it just goes to an explanation of why they have to use closed captioning on the streaming



video is right above that info, takes a second to load. Not sure why not working for you.


ETA: go here and then look for the live steam link on site and see if you can access that way
http://kfor.com/

also try this link (different TV station) http://www.news9.com/Global/category.asp?C=207228&BannerId=988
 

Mzkitty

I give up.
planforemergncy: I'm losing track of how many Tornadoes there are. Right now: #Tornado (half mile wide) reported near Luther, Ok by trained spotter, @9NEWS
Sunday, May 19, 2013 5:51:38 PM

amanda_conn: KSN-TV meteorologists report from storm shelter in #Wichita #tornado http://t.co/EfveUfpyUH
Sunday, May 19, 2013 5:35:53 PM

KSN-TV meteorologists ditch the television studio for a storm shelter as severe weather pounds Wichita, Kansas.

Around the two-minute mark is where things start getting crazy. Very harrowing.


http://shortformblog.com/post/50852241468/ksn-weather-tornadoes
 

Mzkitty

I give up.

Structural damage reported after tornado hits in Luther, Oklahoma -
@stormchaser4850

5 mins ago from twitter.com/stormchaser4850 by editor

Reported tornado with debris reported near Luther, Oklahoma - @TWCBreaking

6 mins ago from www.weather.com by editor

MadameCharisma: This coverage is incredible! I just gained a new respect (and fear) of tornadoes! @cnn @weatherchannel #okwx #tornado
Sunday, May 19, 2013 5:56:59 PM
 

Wise Owl

Deceased
Watch these storms blossoming before your eyes. Amazing stuff.

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