ALERT Hurricane Sandy

Vicki

Girls With Guns Member
I'm to far above sea level to worry about flooding and if I find water lapping at my doorstep I know Baltimore and DC is under at least 200' foot of water and likely way more than that. I'm in that bubble area and that only thing that could effect us is heavy snow and lots of it, but I have my fire wood in place "bring it on!"

This is weird. This is the first time I've had a chance to really check this storm out good and you Publius go and say that! I NEVER dream anymore or at least dream where I even vaguely remember them but I had a dream last night and the dream was of me being in this very old beautiful house that had water flooding right up to it's doorsteps. It never did enter the house and I was walking around the house securing things and even waded out into the water at one point. Matter of fact I fell to my knees in the water, got alittle muddy and picked myself up and carried on.

Thank you for reminding me of it just now!

Hope everyone stays safe and this storm passes easily.
 

Kathy in WV

Down on the Farm...
Wow. We need rain, but 5.7 inches here is going to bring down a lot of trees and hillsides. Going to be some major flooding along WV creeks and rivers... Not fun.
 

Publius

On TB every waking moment
This is weird. This is the first time I've had a chance to really check this storm out good and you Publius go and say that! I NEVER dream anymore or at least dream where I even vaguely remember them but I had a dream last night and the dream was of me being in this very old beautiful house that had water flooding right up to it's doorsteps. It never did enter the house and I was walking around the house securing things and even waded out into the water at one point. Matter of fact I fell to my knees in the water, got alittle muddy and picked myself up and carried on.

Thank you for reminding me of it just now!

Hope everyone stays safe and this storm passes easily.


The storm does seem to be winding down some and anyone in a low coastal area best relocate until it passes. I have my winter supply of fire wood up to my shack and it now has a roof over it so it will stay dry and being a prepper for hard times and anything else, I have everything I need to sit this out.
 
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Publius

On TB every waking moment
Wow. We need rain, but 5.7 inches here is going to bring down a lot of trees and hillsides. Going to be some major flooding along WV creeks and rivers... Not fun.


Its been many year since the last hurricane hit West Virginia and I've heard the stories of seeing houses and livestock washing away, we have some valleys that flood easy.
 

Vicki

Girls With Guns Member
The storm does seem to be winding down some and anyone in a low coastal area best relocate until it passes. I have my winter supply of fire up to my shack and it now has a roof over it so it will stay dry and being a prepper for hard times and anything else, I have everything I need to sit this out.

That's good. I'm no where near the coast but not far from the Lake. It would take alot to flood me out but like you, I'm sitting home. I've done my prepping and am sitting on the wood, food and water and most anything else I would need to hunker down for awhile. Maybe indefinately. :)

Glad the storm is winding down. I have a few friends in harm's way.
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
000
WTNT33 KNHC 270253
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SANDY REMAINS A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD AWAY FROM
THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 77.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO ST AUGUSTINE
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF ST AUGUSTINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...GALE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
ON SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AND SANDY MAY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 415
MILES...665 KM. NOAA BUOY 41010 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 49 MPH...79 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH...97 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN FLORIDA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

BAHAMAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
REMAINDER OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SE VIRGINIA INCLUDING LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED PERIODS
OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEASTERN STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
UNderstand that "winding down" is not an indication of what will actually hit, since it's going to go from tropical to extratropical, and instead of the strongest winds at the core, they are going to be at the EXTERIOR as the storm transitions to extra-tropical/WINTER storm....

Local Cleveland weather is calling for a couple inches of rain BEFORE the storm,.....Comparing to 1991 when Grace, a high and a cold front colided..

WORST CASE would be combining Sandy and a cold front...which appears to be where we are headed...
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
000
WTNT43 KNHC 270253
TCDAT3

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

SANDY IS SHOWING CHARACTERISTICS OF A HYBRID CYCLONE THIS EVENING.
OVERALL...THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A LARGE OCCLUDED FRONTAL LOW.
HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENTS...AND CENTRAL CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN BANDS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...AMSU DATA FROM NEAR 2000
UTC INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAD A DEEP WARM CORE.
DROPSONDES AND SFMR DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 60 KT WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER...AND BASED ON THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT STRONGER WINDS
WERE NOT SAMPLED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. AN
INTERESTING NOTE IS THAT THE DROPSONDE DATA INDICATES THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CONVECTION AT FLIGHT-LEVEL ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS THAN THOSE NEAR THE SURFACE.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE INITIAL
MOTION A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 010/6. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND THIS MOTION
SHOULD PERSIST FOR 48 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...A NEGATIVELY-TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER EXTREME
EASTERN CANADA SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST...TOWARD AND OVER THE U.S. COAST. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THE FIRST 48
HR...AND THE FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THERE
WAS LITTLE CHANGE AFTER THAT TIME...AND THE LANDFALL AREA AND TIME
IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THAT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SANDY IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ABOUT 50 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WHICH IS DISRUPTING THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. HOWEVER...VERY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY SUSTAINING THE CYCLONE. WHILE THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE...IT IS LIKELY THAT SANDY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH 36 HR. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT INTERACTION WITH THE U. S. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE SANDY TO RE-INTENSIFY PRIMARILY DUE TO
BAROCLININC ENERGY PROCESSES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SANDY
REGAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48-72 HR. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
WILL BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THIS HAPPENS...AND
WHEN THIS PROCESS WILL BE COMPLETE IS UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS OF THE
EXACT STRUCTURE AT LANDFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND
POWERFUL CYCLONE WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXTENDING WELL AWAY FROM
THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 27.7N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 28.8N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 30.4N 75.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 32.0N 73.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 33.8N 71.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 37.5N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 40.0N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0000Z 42.0N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

Sysman

Old Geek <:)=
The storm does seem to be winding down
It was expected to loose some punch over the next few hours...

BUT it is also expected to get stronger again, as it runs into warmer Gulf Stream waters...

80 MPH winds are still expected at landfall, + who knows how much rain...

.
 

SIRR1

Inactive
Ok, we've been expecting an "October surprise" for this election for a long time.

Is there any way possible that HAARP etc could take an existing storm and amplify its effects? The timing of all this just seems all too "coincidental", if you know what I mean. Or maybe its divine intervention :)

Anyway, had to ask. Perhaps some knowledgable person can debunk this.

I'm in the "hitting liquor stores" area, and pray you all stay safe through this storm.


Loup one of our tech experts here at TB2K has said this time and time again here that HAARP has nothing to do with hurricanes!

This is Loup reading your post:sht:

He may chime in if he is around and see's you asking about HAARP.

Publis I will be thinking about you and praying for you and the rest of our members in the path of this storm this weekend![/B

Stay safe!

SIRR1
 
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Doomer Doug

Deceased
Looks like the European model nailed Sandy's path right on target. The NHC shifted the track from going east out into the Atlantic based on the midwestern front pulling Sandy to the west. I am not sure what people are talking about with the 7 inches in Portland rainfall. We "might" get that much over a week or ten days. We rarely get more than one inch at a time. I did see rain predicted in the local weather report for all week. One time we did get one inch a day, for ten days, in early december a few years back. So, it can rain a lot in coastal Oregon and Washington. The really dangerous flooding is heavy rain in the spring combined with snow melt. It takes a lot of rain to cause flooding here. Besides, we are coming off nearly 80 days of sunny and dry weather going from mid July to October 11th. The dry ground and low rivers will soak up a lot of rain before it becomes an issue I think. Local forecast is predicting rain to Halloween, but no storm warnings or panic. If Portland was looking at 7 inches of rain in the next four days they would be screaming about it!

Sandy looks to be as bad as Doomer doug feared it would be. We got all three of the citrus fruits to line up on the weather disaster gambling machine. If New York City gets hit with a high storm surge, wind speed, plus high tide they will have the dykes breached. If that happens you will lose the subway system, the under the river bridges and NYC will be effectively cut off. That will be very interesting if it lasts more than 15 minutes!
 

Publius

On TB every waking moment
Very over cast here and light wind coming from the East. The weather service has posted snow and one day marked as 100% chance for the Snowshoe area of West Virginia.
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
Yes, over at Storm2k, they are talking about it being like the 91 storm when Grace met up with a cold front and well we know the rest of the story. I hope it misses us here in Florida and you fine folks up there too.

Wasn't that 1993? March 13?

I'll never forget it because I was pregnant with my first child, and fell in a snowdrift (in Georgia!) and couldn't get up, it was so deep.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Storm_of_the_Century
 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
New York Mayor Bloomberg expected to consider evacuations ahead of Sandy - @MarketWatch

Yesterday, October 26, 2012, 10:41:23 PM
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
Wasn't that 1993? March 13?

I'll never forget it because I was pregnant with my first child, and fell in a snowdrift (in Georgia!) and couldn't get up, it was so deep.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Storm_of_the_Century

Ah, I see where the confusion lies, per the following article.

Seems that perhaps popular media were premature in dubbing the 1991 storm the "Perfect Storm", despite meteorologists using that term, since only about 2 years later, another storm appeared that rivaled the 1991 storm in strength and destructive power. Since "Perfect Storm had been taken, the name "Storm of the Century" was given to the 1993 storm, and which, per the article, was actually the greater storm in terms of area affected, yet the more hyperbolic term had already been taken. Neither storm was ever officially given a name because the first had the remnants of a hurricane joining with another storm, whereas the 1993 cyclone appeared far too early to be considered and named as part of the normal "hurricane" cycle -- even though it was one. (see below quote from article).

Yet, the 1993 storm produced the same oceanic effects as the 1991 storm ("Supposedly, this was to be a 100 year event for southern Scotian shelf buoys, yet the March 1993 super storm also produced "peak" wave heights to near 100 feet!" http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/PS.htm) , though its effects covered a much wider area.

The article referenced below calls the upcoming storm a "Frankenstorm", and says it will be worse than the 1991 "Perfect Storm"--which may make "this" storm the "Storm of the Century" for the 21st century.

Though we're early into the 21st Century yet.

Sky
Hurricane Sandy Could Outdo ‘Perfect Storm’

http://www.ouramazingplanet.com/3692-hurricane-sandy-from-space.html


"In all likelihood, it will be worse than the Perfect Storm," said William Komaromi, a hurricane expert at the University of Miami. [How To Prepare for Hurricane Sandy]

The Perfect Storm

The Perfect Storm hit the Northeast on Nov. 1, 1991. It formed when the remnants of Hurricane Grace were absorbed by a low-pressure storm system, or nor'easter, at the edge of a cold front. That created a new storm near Newfoundland that swirled to the southwest and lashed New England with high winds, rain and waves. This new storm was an extra-tropical cyclone, meaning a cyclone that forms outside of the tropics, and it briefly reached hurricane strength, or winds of 74 mph (119 kph) or greater.


Storm of the Century

But Jeff Weber, a scientist with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., said he doesn't think a new storm will absorb the hurricane. He likens this hurricane more to the "Storm of the Century," a cyclone that hit the eastern United States in early March 1993. (Since it hit before the hurricane season began, it didn't receive an official name.) Weber said he thinks the damage will come from the hurricane itself, and he said the storm won’t likely link with another developing storm.

What both Komaromi and Weber can agree upon, however, is that the storm is likely to be extremely bad, creating very high winds. Several models suggest that Sandy could produce the lowest barometric pressure in the history of the United States, he said. The high-pressure cold front moving toward the Northeast could help create especially strong gales, since wind is created by differences in pressure, as air wants to flow from high to low pressure. Weber predicts Sandy’s winds could reach 100 mph (160 kph).

"We're talking winds in the 100-mph range as it's making landfall in the Northeast," he said.
 

Firebird

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Will there really be that much flooding with less than 6 inches of rain? I guess the topography is so much different up there. We get almost that much rain in a summer thunderstorm here in Florida.
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
000
WTNT33 KNHC 271159
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 76.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO SAINT AUGUSTINE
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SAINT AUGUSTINE TO
FERNANDINA BEACH
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...GALE...STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DATA FROM NOAA AND U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT SANDY HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SANDY IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450 MILES...725 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
NOAA BUOY 41010...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220
KM...EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 58 MPH...94 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 74 MPH...119 KM/H. A
NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF
53 MPH...85 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO FIRST REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS BY
THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

BAHAMAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
REMAINDER OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SE VIRGINIA INCLUDING LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED
PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BY SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/LANDSEA

*******************************************************************************************************
Lilbitsnana note:
ETA:
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450 MILES
This is expected to get much bigger when it finally merges with the front
 
Last edited:

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
Looks like the European model nailed Sandy's path right on target. The NHC shifted the track from going east out into the Atlantic based on the midwestern front pulling Sandy to the west. I am not sure what people are talking about with the 7 inches in Portland rainfall. We "might" get that much over a week or ten days. We rarely get more than one inch at a time. I did see rain predicted in the local weather report for all week. One time we did get one inch a day, for ten days, in early december a few years back. So, it can rain a lot in coastal Oregon and Washington. The really dangerous flooding is heavy rain in the spring combined with snow melt. It takes a lot of rain to cause flooding here. Besides, we are coming off nearly 80 days of sunny and dry weather going from mid July to October 11th. The dry ground and low rivers will soak up a lot of rain before it becomes an issue I think. Local forecast is predicting rain to Halloween, but no storm warnings or panic. If Portland was looking at 7 inches of rain in the next four days they would be screaming about it!

Sandy looks to be as bad as Doomer doug feared it would be. We got all three of the citrus fruits to line up on the weather disaster gambling machine. If New York City gets hit with a high storm surge, wind speed, plus high tide they will have the dykes breached. If that happens you will lose the subway system, the under the river bridges and NYC will be effectively cut off. That will be very interesting if it lasts more than 15 minutes!

That is what the HPC is giving as a 5 day total from 10/27 to 11/01 for that area.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml
 

Kathy in WV

Down on the Farm...
Will there really be that much flooding with less than 6 inches of rain? I guess the topography is so much different up there. We get almost that much rain in a summer thunderstorm here in Florida.

I've lived south and I've lived North. Down South you have that sandy- type soil that water drains straight down through... you're also pretty flat. But up North you have heavy dense clay soils. They only absorb so much and then the water just runs right off... if you add hills and mountains into the mix you get water seeking its own level and it drains into the creeks and rivers really fast. You get flash flooding and raging torrents that not only flood but erode stream beds, dams, etc....much different than down South...
 

NoPlugsNM

Deceased
I remember the winter storm of 1993, I lived just north and slightly east of Pittsburgh then. We saw snowfall rates of a foot an hour for several hours, we were burried in snow, power was down for several days following that storm. People wer out shoveling snow off their roofs, many roofs could not handle the snow weight, collapsed homes everywhere. I could not keep up with snowplowing/snowblowing my driveway clean, the snow was wet and heavy. PADOT only cleared major roads, secondary roads in my area did not get plowed for 2-3 days. When the DOT finally did get to the secondary roads they had to bring out BIG equipment and literally DIG us out, snow drifts were 10 ft high or more across the roads. The actual snow layer itself was 4-5 feet in some places and other places had 7-8 feet depending on whether they were updraft or downdraft mountain areas. It took a good week for things to START to get back to nornal. If this storm is going to rival that of 1993, or be worse than 1993, PRAY for those who are going to get hit with this storm, it is truly a disaster in the making, and it will create havoc and hardship beyond comparison of anything that most people can handle.



NP
 

LeafyForest

Veteran Member
New model runs have landfall closer to Cape May, however, everywhere from MD to ME is still fair game as this storm is tracked.

Range of forecast is "severe Nor'Easter, to "Storm of the Century". Many on the Meterologist boards at Accuweather are likening it to the 1991 "Perfect Storm" and the 1938 Hurricane that devastated New England.

Doesn't sound good. We have family about 30 or so miles below Boston - just wrote them and said to prepare, as they
aren't preppers. Stay safe, everyone!
 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
I'm following this feed. There will be some live reporting mixed in with local TV coverage as the event nears land,

[video]http://www.ustream.tv/channel/2051885[/video]

Here's the homepage with more info,

http://www.hurricanecity.com/

LATEST UPDATE 10/27/12..... Sandy has lost some strength due to dry air intrusion while moving away from the Bahamas and is now moving N.E. The official forecast now calls for potential restrengthening to a category 1 hurricane to impact the N.E by Monday night as a ridge of high pressure pushes Sandy back towards the coast. Sandy is expanding in size so a large area could feels tropical storm force wind gusts up to 200 miles west of the center. The intensity is the big question for final landfall and there is a possibility this could become extratropical before moving inland. Regardless of the type of system Sandy is at landfall you can expect beach erosion and storm surge especially north of where the center comes ashore. By sunday we should have a better idea where landfall could take place and will begin to feature a city where the worst impacts will be felt.......jw
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
Email from Jeff Lindner, professional meteorologist (not sent to me, I got it off st2k, mods delete if necessary, as in not ok for me to c&p from there)

Historic storm system heading for the mid Atlantic and NE US.

Potentially life threatening destructive storm surge event for the New Jersey and New York coasts.

Discussion:

The transition of Sandy from a pure tropical cyclone toward more of mid-latitude cyclone has begun. Sandy is still located near the northern Bahamas this morning, but satellite and radar images along with recon data suggest that the system has made the expected turn toward the NNE and this motion should continue with an increase in forward speed. Aircraft data also shows the wind field is greatly expanding with TS force winds extending outward 435 miles from the center with the highest winds located across the western and northwestern flank of the circulation where sporadic deep convection is found.

Across the north Atlantic and the US, the upper air pattern continues to “block” with massive high pressure building over eastern Canada and a strong trough (our cold front) pressing into the eastern US. A shortwave over the western states this morning will swing through the base of the main trough and tilt it from SE to NW over the SE and mid Atlantic starting tomorrow. Sandy will become captured by this titling and instead of pushed out to sea, make a hard left turn (NW) back toward the US mid-Atlantic and NE US coast between the trough to her SW and the blocking high to her NE. Global guidance is in very good agreement on this pattern and in fact has very little spread in the track solution given the complex interactions that will be in place. Models show Sandy moving NW to WNW toward the New Jersey coast and making landfall Monday night or Tuesday morning and then slowing down as she moves inland.

As for intensity, Sandy is gradually taking on more and more mid latitude influences although her center core remains “warm” or tropical. Jet stream phasing with the system is starting to occur with temperature gradient developing on her outer flanks of the large circulation. As Sandy moves northward this process will intensify has the warm Caribbean air mass clashes with a very cold polar air mass resulting in strong baroclinic intensification. Sandy will also be located in the favorable region of the trough and jet stream axis to promote surface deepening of a cyclone. Models continue to advertise “incredibly” low pressures with the ECMWF showing a record 942mb low near landfall on the New Jersey coast which is an astounding 30mb lower than the 1991 Perfect Storm and 6mb lower than anything ever recorded in the NE US.

Given the continued very good model agreement on both track and the forecasted extreme low pressures, confidence is building that an extremely rare powerful storm system will impact the NE and mid-Atlantic coast from Sunday-Thursday.

Impacts:

Major travel disruption is likely as numerous major E coast airports will not be able to sustain operations and this will have ripple effects across the nation. Additionally, widespread power outages and down trees will greatly hamper surface and rail travel across the entire region with widespread and potentially prolonged impacts to commerce.

This will be a long duration multi-day event with prolonged impacts over the entire area from North Carolina to Canada and extending inland into the OH valley affecting some 55-65 million people.

Coastal flooding or storm surge flooding appears to be significant especially for the New Jersey and New York (NYC and Long Island) coasts. The angle of approach this storm will be taking from (SE to NW) strikes the coast at a right angle instead of the usual grazing by of the coast most storms in this region take (SW to NE or parallel to the coast). This direct hit on the coast will drive onshore winds and massive amounts of Atlantic seawater toward the central and northern New Jersey coast and into the “L” shaped New York Bight area of southern New York City and western Long Island (a worst case track for this area, that has never occurred before with this strong of a storm system). The fetch of wind across the entire north Atlantic will drive large waves and surge to the coast and this will last for several high tide cycles. Tides will be at their maximum due to the full moon on Monday. Massive beach erosion is likely with coastal structures experiences significant damage many to the point of total collapse. Seawater inundation will be extensive and widespread and long lasting and in some places potentially record setting. Due to the rare track of this storm, some locations that have never before experienced coastal flooding, may flood with this event.

Winds of 50-60mph with gust to 70-80mph will battered a wide area for 24-48 hours. Expect widespread tree damage and power outages which could rival some of the largest power outages ever in the US. The prolonged nature of the event will result in trees giving way over time as the ground saturates from the heavy rainfall. Winds will be higher in an near tall high rise buildings where funneling will take place. Structure damage will be mainly from trees falling into buildings and to roofs from the wind itself.

Rainfall amounts of 5-8 inches will be common over a very large area with totals of 8-12 inches over New Jersey into southern PA and New York. Isolated amounts of 15 inches are possible as the tropical moisture from Sandy’s air mass crashes into the eastern slopes of the mountains and a stalled frontal boundary. Rainfall of this magnitude over an area of steep terrain will produce life threatening flash flooding and major river flooding.

Ocean seas will be building to staggering heights over the next few days. Already buoys north of the Bahamas have been reporting 30 foot seas, and Wave Watch III guidance is maxed out at 42-48 foot seas over the NW Atlantic Ocean by early next week. The expanding area of strong winds of 50-60mph and the massive fetch of wind all the way from Europe will produce very large swells. Would not be surprised to see reports of wave greater than 50-60 feet over the NW Atlantic. Some of this wave action and energy will be directed toward the US coastline and this will worsen the beach erosion. Large wave setup will also trap water levels near the coast and worsen the coastal flooding threat.

On the extreme SW flank of the storm heavy wet snow will fall over parts of OH and WV with totals of 1-2 feet possible.

Power outages will likely last for 1-2 weeks or longer

Large scale evacuation orders for the New Jersey coast will be underway today with portions of New York also likely requiring evacuation due to the potential for coastal storm surge inundation.
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
000
WTNT33 KNHC 271459
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SANDY SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY NEAR THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...GALE...STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS SANDY HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...
HOWEVER...A LONGER-TERM MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS
FORECAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450
MILES...725 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA IN THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

FL EAST COAST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...1 TO 2 FT
NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBERMARLE SNDS...3 TO 5 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND DELAWARE BAY...4 TO 8 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BY SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
Hurricane SANDY Forecast Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

US Watch/Warning
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



000
WTNT43 KNHC 271504
TCDAT3

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN
SAMPLING THE CYCLONE THIS MORNING. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FOUND
AN AREA OF HURRICANE-FORCE SFMR WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CENTER AND A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 91 KT. A
DROPSONDE RELEASED FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT IN THE SAME AREA ALSO
SUPPORTED WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT ALSO
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF AROUND 956 MB FROM A DROPSONDE
AROUND 1200 UTC...BUT THE PRESSURE IS UP A COUPLE OF MILLIBARS ON
THE LATEST FIX. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INTENSITY WAS
INCREASED ON THE 8 AM INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AND SANDY IS ONCE AGAIN
A 65-KT HURRICANE. WHILE SANDY COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE NHC FORECAST KEEPS THE CYCLONE AT
HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE
COULD INTENSIFY AS IT INTERACTS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY LATE SUNDAY...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE PREPVIOUS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN
AFTER LANDFALL.

ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT FIX SHOWS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS
MADE A JOG TO THE EAST DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE LONGER
TERM MOTION YIELDS AN INTIAL MOTION OF 030/8 KT. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT TIME...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW SHARP A
WESTWARD TURN THE CYCLONE MAKES BEFORE REACHING THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFS...
SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 48
HOURS AND THEN A VERY HARD TURN TO THE WEST...MEANING THAT SANDY
WOULD LIKELY COME ASHORE MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST...RATHER THAN
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS SUGGESTED BY DRAWING A STRAIGHT LINE
BETWEEN THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST POINTS. HAVING SAID THAT...IT
IS STILL TO SOON TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER...BOTH
BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND BECAUSE THE IMPACTS ARE GOING
TO COVER SUCH A LARGE AREA AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

NOTE THAT WIND HAZARDS FOR SANDY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA ARE BEING HANDLED BY HIGH WIND...STORM...AND GALE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO FIRST REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SUNDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 29.0N 76.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 30.4N 75.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 32.2N 73.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 34.2N 72.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 36.4N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 39.8N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/1200Z 40.8N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/1200Z 43.8N 76.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

Mzkitty

I give up.
Tropical Storm Sandy increases again to hurricane strength - @NHC_Atlantic

2 hours ago by editor


Hurricane Sandy death toll rises to 43 - @AP

14 mins ago from www.ksnt.com by editor

------------

Hurricane Sandy death toll continues to rise


PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti (AP) — Hurricane Sandy is swirling off toward the U.S. East Coast, leaving the Caribbean to mourn the storm-related deaths of at least 43 people and clean up wrecked homes, felled power lines and fallen tree branches.

While Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas took direct hits from the storm, the majority of deaths and most extensive damage was in impoverished Haiti, where it has rained almost non-stop since Tuesday.

The death toll in Haiti stood at 29 late Friday, but officials worried that the number could rise as searches continued in the country's ramshackle housing and denuded hillsides that are especially vulnerable to flooding when rains come.

Officials were concerned about a continuing rise in a river in the northern part of the capital, Port-au-Prince. People living nearby in mud-splattered, makeshift settlements kept a wary eye on the rush of muddy water.

"If the river busts its banks, it's going to create a lot of problems. It might kill a lot of people," said 51-year-old Seroine Pierre. "If death comes, we'll accept it. We're suffering, we're hungry, and we're just going to die hungry."

Officials reported flooding across Haiti, where 370,000 people are still living in flimsy shelters as a result of the devastating 2010 earthquake. Nearly 17,800 people had to move to 131 temporary shelters, the Civil Protection Office said.

Among those hoping for a dry place to stay was 35-year-old Iliodor Derisma in Port-au-Prince, who said the storm had caused a lot of anguish.

"It's wet all my clothes, and all the children aren't living well," he said. "We're hungry. We haven't received any food. If we had a shelter, that would be nice."

Officials at a morgue in the western town of Grand Goave said a mudslide crashed through a wooden home Thursday, killing 40-year-old Jacqueline Tatille and her four children, ranging in ages from 5 to 17.

"If the rain continues, for sure we'll have more people die," morgue deputy Joseph Franck Laporte said. "The earth cannot hold the rain."

On Friday, President Michel Martelly and Prime Minister Laurent Lamothe handed out water bottles to dozens of people in a Port-au-Prince neighborhood. They also distributed money to local officials to help clean up the damage.

Sandy left dozens of families homeless across Jamaica when it barreled across the island Wednesday as a Category 1 hurricane. One man was crushed to death by a boulder that tumbled into his house.

The storm then gained strength and hit eastern Cuba as a Category 2 hurricane early Thursday. Eleven people died in Santiago and Guantanamo provinces as wind and rain tore into thousands of homes. Authorities said it was Cuba's deadliest storm since July 2005, when Category 5 Hurricane Dennis killed 16 people and caused $2.4 billion in damage.

Official news media said the storm caused 5,000 houses to at least partially collapse while 30,000 others lost roofs. Banana, coffee, bean and sugar crops were damaged.

The storm then churned into the Bahamas archipelago, toppling light posts, flooding roads and ripping down tree branches. Police said the British CEO of an investment bank died when he fell from his roof in upscale Lyford Cay late Thursday while trying to repair a window shutter. Officials at Deltec Bank & Trust identified him as Timothy Fraser-Smith, who became CEO in 2000.

Government officials in the Bahamas said the storm appeared to inflict the greatest damage on Cat Island, which took a direct hit, and Exuma.

"I hope that's it for the year," said Veronica Marshall, a 73-year-old hotel owner in Great Exuma. "I thought we would be going into the night, but around 3 o'clock it all died down. I was very happy about that."

On Long Island, farmers lost most of their crops and several roofs were torn off, legislator Loretta Butler-Turner said. The island was without power and many residents did not have access to fresh water, she said.

Power also was out on Acklins Island and most roads there were flooded, while the lone school on Ragged Island in the southern Bahamas was flooded.

In Puerto Rico, police said a man in his 50s died Friday in the southern town of Juana Diaz, swept away in a river swollen by rain from Sandy's outer bands. Flooding forced at least 100 families in southwestern Puerto Rico to seek shelter.

Authorities in the Dominican Republic evacuated more than 18,100 people after the storm destroyed several bridges and isolated at least 130 communities. Heavy rains and wind also damaged an estimated 3,500 homes.

Associated Press writers Danica Coto in San Juan, Puerto Rico; Trenton Daniel in Port-au-Prince and Pierre-Richard Luxama in Grand Goave, Haiti; Anne-Marie Garcia in Havana; and Ezequiel Abiu Lopez in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, contributed to this report.

http://www.ksnt.com/news/world/stor...continues-to-rise/KkqoYmkmPE2wuYMA_123iQ.cspx
 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
All tropical storm watches, warnings cancelled for Florida's east coast - @nbc6

9 mins ago by editor
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
Yep, Sandy will be retired just based on below, let alone what she is going to do to the US. I really hope people do what they need to survive the power outages and cold that is coming.

Hurricane Sandy death toll rises to 43
 

Warthog

Tusk Up
Those wind bands are looking mighty tight together for all of Ohio on Tuesday, and Wednesday!!!!!!! I just wanted to remind my fellow Buckeyes to get those generators and extra gas ready!!!!!!!!!! There is millions of dead Ash trees here in Ohio just waiting to be toppled onto power lines!!!!!!!!!!!!! Screw the college football games and get your asses prepared!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
http://www.newsday.com/news/weather/li-braces-for-hurricane-sandy-fire-island-evacuating-1.4159556

LI braces for Hurricane Sandy; Fire Island evacuating

Long Island was bracing Saturday for Sandy, an immense storm that forecasters expect to batter the region beginning this weekend.

The Town of Islip ordered a mandatory evacuation for Fire Island to be completed by 2 p.m. Sunday. Supervisor Tom Croci declared a state of emergency for the town beginning at 8 a.m. Saturday.

LIPA spokesman Mark Gross said a decision has not been made yet on cutting the power to Fire Island. "We will coordinate with them [Suffolk County] and evaluate only after the evacuation is done," Gross said.

continued at http://www.newsday.com/news/weather/li-braces-for-hurricane-sandy-fire-island-evacuating-1.4159556
 

MataPam

Veteran Member
Just because it's "weakening" don't get complacent. That's just the wind speed. All the moisture is still there.
 

Mzkitty

I give up.
Experts: Sandy wider, stronger than Irene, which caused $15B in damage in 2011 - @AP

1 min ago from bigstory.ap.org by editor

----------

Amid dire forecast, Sandy a hurricane again
— Oct. 27 9:51 AM EDT

BLOOMSBURG, Pa. (AP) — Douglas Jumper choked up as he described the long, slow recovery in his central Pennsylvania town from last year's historic flooding caused by Hurricane Irene and the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee — and contemplated the possibility of yet more damage from an approaching storm.

"I'm tired. I am tired," Jumper, who turned 58 on Saturday, said through tears. "We don't need this again."

Jumper's town of Bloomsburg, and much of the Eastern Seaboard, was in the path of a rare behemoth storm barreling north from the Caribbean. Hurricane Sandy — upgraded again Saturday just hours after forecasters said it had weakened to a tropical storm — was expected to make landfall early Tuesday near the Delaware coast, then hit two winter weather systems as it moves inland. That is expected to create a hybrid monster storm that could bring nearly a foot of rain, high winds and up to 2 feet of snow.

Experts said the storm could be wider and stronger than Irene, which caused more than $15 billion in damage, and could rival the worst East Coast storm on record. On Saturday morning, forecasters said hurricane-force winds of 75 mph could be felt 100 miles away from the storm's center.

Jumper's first floor took on nearly 5 feet of water last year, and he was busy Friday moving items from his wood shop to higher ground. Across the street, Patrick and Heather Peters pulled into the driveway with a kerosene heater, 12 gallons of water, paper plates, batteries, flashlights and the last lantern on Wal-Mart's shelf.

"I'm not screwing around this time," Heather Peters said.

Up and down the coast, people were cautioned to be prepared for days without electricity. Jersey Shore beach towns began issuing voluntary evacuations and protecting boardwalks. Atlantic City casinos made contingency plans to close, and officials advised residents of flood-prone areas to stay with family or be ready to leave. Several governors declared states of emergency. Airlines said to expect cancellations and waived change fees for passengers who want to reschedule.

"Be forewarned," Connecticut Gov. Dannel P. Malloy. "Assume that you will be in the midst of flooding conditions, the likes of which you may not have seen at any of the major storms that have occurred over the last 30 years."

At a Home Depot in Freeport, on New York's Long Island, Bob Notheis bought sawhorses to put his furniture on inside his home.

"I'm just worried about how bad it's going to be with the tidal surge," he said. "Irene was kind of rough on me and I'm just trying to prepare."

After Irene left millions without power, utilities were taking no chances and were lining up extra crews and tree-trimmers. Wind threatened to topple power lines, and trees that still have leaves could be weighed down by snow and fall over if the weight becomes too much.

New York City began precautions for an ominous but still uncertain forecast. No decision had been made on whether any of the city's public transportation outlets would be shut, despite predictions that a sudden shift of the storm's path could cause a surge of 3 to 6 feet in the subways.

The subway system was completely shuttered during Irene, the first such shutdown ever for weather-related reasons. Irene largely missed the city, but struck other areas hard.

In upstate New York, Richard Ball was plucking carrots, potatoes, beets and other crops from the ground as quickly as possible Friday. Ball was still shaky from Irene, which scoured away soil, ruined crops and killed livestock.

Farmers were moving tractors and other equipment to high ground, and some families pondered moving furniture to upper stories in their homes.

"The fear we have a similar recipe to Irene has really intensified anxieties in town," Ball said.

The storm loomed a little more than a week before Election Day, while several states were heavily involved in campaigning, canvassing and get-out-the-vote efforts. Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and Vice President Joe Biden both canceled weekend campaign events in coastal Virginia Beach, Va., though their events in other parts of the states were going on as planned. In Rhode Island, politicians asked supporters to take down yard signs for fear they might turn into projectiles in the storm.

Sandy killed more than 40 people in the Caribbean, wrecked homes and knocked down trees and power lines.

Early Saturday, the storm was about 155 miles (250 kilometers) north of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas and 350 miles (565 kilometers) south-southeast of Charleston, S.C. Its sustained wind speed dropped below 70 mph (110 kph), which downgraded the storm from hurricane strength.

Tropical storm warnings were issued for parts of Florida's East Coast, along with parts of coastal North and South Carolina and the Bahamas. Tropical storm watches were issued for coastal Georgia and parts of South Carolina, along with parts of Florida and Bermuda.

Sandy was projected to hit the Atlantic Coast early Tuesday. As it turns back to the north and northwest and merges with colder air from a winter system, West Virginia and further west into eastern Ohio and southern Pennsylvania are expected to get snow. Forecasters were looking at the Delaware shore as the spot the storm will turn inland, bringing 10 inches of rain and extreme storm surges, said Louis Uccellini, environmental prediction director for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Up to 2 feet of snow was predicted to fall on West Virginia, with lighter snow in parts of Ohio and Pennsylvania. A wide swath of the East, measuring several hundreds of miles, will get persistent gale-force 50 mph winds, with some areas closer to storm landfall getting closer to 70 mph, said James Franklin, forecast chief for the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

"It's going to be a long-lasting event, two to three days of impact for a lot of people," Franklin said. "Wind damage, widespread power outages, heavy rainfall, inland flooding and somebody is going to get a significant surge event."

Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the forecasting service Weather Underground, said this could be as big, perhaps bigger, than the worst East Coast storm on record, a 1938 New England hurricane that is sometimes known as the Long Island Express, which killed nearly 800 people.

Nonetheless, some residents were still shrugging off the impending storm.

On North Carolina's Outer Banks, Marilyn McCluster made the four-hour drive from her home in Chase City, Va., to her family's beach house in Nags Head anticipating a relaxing weekend by the shore.

"It's just wind and rain; I'm hoping that's it," she said Friday as she filled her SUV at the Duck Thru, a gas station.

Inside the station, clerks had a busy day, with daytime sales bringing in about 75 percent of the revenue typically seen during the mid-summer tourist high season, said Jamicthon Howard, 56, of Manteo. Gasoline demand came from tourists leaving Hatteras Island to the south to avoid being stranded if low-lying NC Highway 12 is buried under saltwater and sand as often happens during storms, Howard said, but also locals making sure they're ready for anything.

"They're preparing for lockdown or to make a move," Howard said.

No evacuations had been ordered and ferries hadn't yet been closed. Plenty of stores remained open and houses still featured Halloween decorations outside, as rain started to roll in.

"I'll never evacuate again," said Lori Hilby, manager of a natural foods market in Duck, who left her home before Hurricane Irene struck last August. "... Whenever I evacuate, I always end up somewhere and they lose power and my house is fine. So I'm always wishing I was home."

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/approaching-megastorm-threatens-east-coast#overlay-context=
 

Publius

On TB every waking moment
Heads up to Plurbius and any more of you guys near DC - Just heard on XM Radio that the bulk of the snow is expected to hit WV - up to 2 ft in some areas! Since I'm way down south, I'm not gonna panic but you guys up north and the panhandle might consider it....


They're calling for snowshoe to get some accumulation but as of yesterday they were not saying how much and right now it's 65F at my location and the wind coming from the east is picking up just a little a from last night and not as over cast for right now.
 

Quisling

Inactive
Its been many year since the last hurricane hit West Virginia and I've heard the stories of seeing houses and livestock washing away, we have some valleys that flood easy.

I worked in disaster relief after that storm in 1985. I saw firsthand some unbelievable devastation over around Petersburg and Moorefield; things I would not have even believed possible. Wish I had taken a camera with me.

The worst problem in '85 was that storm "sat" on top of us for 2 days. This one looks to be moving faster. I hope.
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
Discussion by Dr Jeff Masters of the next 48-72 hours

Forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is expected to remain a high 30 - 40 knots for the next two days, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure to its west. The high shear should keep Sandy from intensifying the way most hurricanes do--by pulling heat energy out of the ocean. However, a trough of low pressure approaching from the west will inject "baroclinic" energy--the energy one can derive from the atmosphere when warm and cold air masses lie in close proximity to each other. Sandy's drop in central pressure from 969 mb at 5 am to 960 mb at 8 am this morning may be due, in part, to some baroclinic energy helping intensify the storm. This sort of effect helps spread out the storm's strong winds over a wider area of ocean; Sandy's diameter of tropical storm-force winds are predicted to expand from 660 miles to 760 miles by Sunday afternoon. This will increase the total amount of wind energy of the storm, keeping the storm surge threat very high. This morning's 9:30 am EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.3 on a scale of 0 to 6, However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was exceptionally high: 5.2 on a scale of 0 to 6. Sandy's large wind field will drive a damaging storm surge of 3 - 6 feet to the right of where the center makes landfall. These storm surge heights will be among the highest ever recorded along the affected coasts, and will have the potential to cause billions of dollars in damage. The latest set of 00Z (8 pm EDT) and 06Z (2 am EDT) computer model runs have come into better agreement on the timing and landfall location of Sandy. Our two top models, the ECMWF and GFS, both call for landfall between 10 pm Monday night and 4 am Tuesday morning, with the center coming ashore between Delaware and New York City.

A multi-billion dollar disaster likely in the U.S.

I expect Sandy's impacts along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England coasts to cost at least $2 billion in insured damage and lost business, and there is a danger the storm could cost much more. Steve Bowen, meteorologist for insurance broker AON Benfield, put it this way for me this morning: "Given the level of losses associated with Irene last year and the current projections of extended high wind, heavy rainfall, coastal surge and an inland flooding threat for many of the same areas with Sandy, it would not come as a complete surprise to see a multi-billion dollar economic loss." Sandy should bring sustained winds of 50 - 70 mph with gusts over hurricane force to a large section of coast. With most of the trees still in leaf, there will be widespread power outages due to downed trees, and the potential for a billion dollars in wind damage.


Sandy's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system, costing billions

Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 400 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its peak winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be among the highest of the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. If Sandy hits near New York City, as the GFS model predicts, the storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. However, the town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to the storm surge, and fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. New York was not as lucky on December 12, 1992, when a 990 mb Nor'easter drove an 8-foot storm surge into Battery Park, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory, Sandy's storm surge may be higher than Irene's, and has the potential to flood New York City's subway system (Figure 4.) The amount of water will depend critically upon whether or not the peak storm surge arrives at high tide or not. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening's high tide near 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City's subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 20% chance that Sandy's storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system.

An excellent September 2012 article in the New York Times titled, "New York Is Lagging as Seas and Risks Rise, Critics Warn" quoted Dr. Klaus H. Jacob, a research scientist at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, on how lucky New York City got with Hurricane Irene. If the storm surge from Irene had been just one foot higher, "subway tunnels would have flooded, segments of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Drive and roads along the Hudson River would have turned into rivers, and sections of the commuter rail system would have been impassable or bereft of power," he said, and the subway tunnels under the Harlem and East Rivers would have been unusable for nearly a month, or longer, at an economic loss of about $55 billion. Dr. Jacob is an adviser to the city on climate change, and an author of the 2011 state study that laid out the flooding prospects. “We’ve been extremely lucky,” he said. “I’m disappointed that the political process hasn’t recognized that we’re playing Russian roulette.” A substantial portion of New York City's electrical system is underground in flood-prone areas. Consolidated Edison, the utility that supplies electricity to most of the city, estimates that adaptations like installing submersible switches and moving high-voltage transformers above ground level would cost at least $250 million. Lacking the means, it is making gradual adjustments, with about $24 million spent in flood zones since 2007. At a conference I attended this summer in Hoboken on natural hazards on urban coasts, I talked to an official with Consolidated Edison, who was responsible for turning off Lower Manhattan's power if a storm surge floods the subway system. He said that he was ready to throw the switch during Irene, but was glad it turned out not to be needed.


Sandy's rains

Sandy is expected to dump 5 - 10 inches of rain along the coast near the point the center comes ashore, and 3 - 4 inches several hundred miles inland. Higher isolated rainfall amounts of fifteen inches are likely. Rains of this magnitude are going to cause trouble. If we compare the predicted rainfall amounts for Sandy (Figure 4) with those from Hurricane Irene of 2011 (Figure 5), they are similar in magnitude. Hurricane Irene caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. However, the region most heavily impacted by Irene's heavy rains had very wet soils and very high river levels before Irene arrived, due to heavy rains that occurred in the weeks before the hurricane hit. That is not the case for Sandy; soil moisture is near average over most of the mid-Atlantic, and is in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland (Figure 6.) One region of possible concern is the Susquehanna River Valley in Eastern Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is in the 70th percentile, and river levels are in the 76th - 90th percentile. This area is currently expected to receive 2 - 4 inches of rain (Figure 4), which is not enough to cause catastrophic flooding like occurred for Hurricane Irene. However, it is quite possible that the axis of heaviest rains will shift northwards from this forecast. I expect that river flooding from Sandy will cause less than $1 billion in damage.
 
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