Lilbitsnana
On TB every waking moment
This was a NOAA Forecast discussion from yesterday. I thought I posted it, but just scanning i didn't see it, so posting as a reminder or a heads up.
ALERT Hurricane Sandy
- Thread starter The Traveler
- Start date
Lilbitsnana
On TB every waking moment
Yep. Some of the METS on st2k yesterday were discussing how this could possibly have storm surge comparable to Katrina and Ike, it will last a lot longer than Irene (because being a hybrid it won't weaken very quickly) and that hurricane force winds will/could extend out hundreds of miles from the center. The winds will actually be higher farther out than what they will be at the center because it is a hybrid.
They stressed how everything depended on "if this" and "if that", it's just that all the "ifs" are coming together and some are happening sooner.
Either way, they were saying this storm will be discussed and anyalyzed for years to help with future forecasts.
So this could possibly be very bad indeed.
ETA: everything depends on variables, angles, strength, speed etc. "what ifs"
Last edited:
Lilbitsnana
On TB every waking moment
000
WTNT33 KNHC 261153
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012
...SANDY NEAR GREAT ABACO ISLAND...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 76.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCEPT ANDROS ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A FURTHER DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH TONIGHT AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. THE WIND FIELD OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN SIZE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. (Lilbitsnana note: some are saying this is no longer "tropical", happening sooner than expected...how it changes things, I don't know)
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
DATA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING
AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC..WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT
SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT33 KNHC 261153
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012
...SANDY NEAR GREAT ABACO ISLAND...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 76.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCEPT ANDROS ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A FURTHER DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH TONIGHT AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. THE WIND FIELD OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN SIZE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. (Lilbitsnana note: some are saying this is no longer "tropical", happening sooner than expected...how it changes things, I don't know)
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
DATA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING
AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC..WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT
SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Last edited:
CGTech
Has No Life - Lives on TB
note: video link at site, they are now calling this a 'worst case scenario'
http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2012...for-pre-halloween-frankenstorm/#ixzz2AP81zjXW
East Coast prepares for pre-Halloween 'Frankenstorm'
Published October 26, 2012
FoxNews.com
The pre-Halloween hybrid weather monster that federal forecasters call "Frankenstorm" is looking more ominous by the hour for the East Coast, and utilities and local governments are getting ready.
Meteorologists expect a natural horror show of high wind, heavy rain, extreme tides and maybe snow to the west beginning early Sunday, peaking with the arrival of Hurricane Sandy on Tuesday and lingering past Halloween on Wednesday.
With a rare mix of three big merging weather systems over a densely populated region, experts predict at least $1 billion in damage.
Hurricane Sandy, which has killed 21 in the Caribbean, including 11 in Cuba and nine in Haiti, is currently sweeping through the Bahamas and is barreling north. A wintry storm is chugging across the country from the west. And frigid air is streaming south from Canada.
And if they meet Tuesday morning around New York or New Jersey, as forecasters redict, they could create a big, wet mess that settles over the nation's most heavily populated corridor and reaches as far west as Ohio.
Utilities are lining up out-of-state work crews and canceling employees' days off to deal with expected power outages. From county disaster chiefs to the federal government, emergency officials are warning the public to be prepared. And President Barack Obama was briefed aboard Air Force One.
"It's looking like a very serious storm that could be historic," said Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the forecasting service Weather Underground. "Mother Nature is not saying, `Trick or treat.' It's just going to give tricks."
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecaster Jim Cisco, who coined the nickname Frankenstorm, said: "We don't have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting."
Government forecasters said there is a 90 percent chance -- up from 60 percent two days earlier -- that the East will get pounded.
Coastal areas from Florida to Maine will feel some effects, but the storm is expected to vent the worst of its fury on New Jersey and the New York City area, which could see around 5 inches of rain and gale-force winds close to 40 mph. Eastern Ohio, southwestern Pennsylvania and western Virginia could get snow.
Virginia's Department of Emergency Management are advising residents to make preparations in advance and to closely watch local forecasts.
“We are taking the forecast seriously,” VDEM spokeswoman Laura Southard told FoxNews.com. “We are in close contact with the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center, so we’re getting the best information we can.”
Residents in the storm’s expected path, Southard said, should have a three days’ supply of water on hand, or one gallon per person per day, enough for drinking, cooking and some bathing.
“They should have at least a 3-day supply and food that doesn’t need electricity to prepare it,” she said.
To combat extended power outages, Southard suggested residents purchase battery-powered radios and extra batteries.
“Pay attention,” she said. “Expect that there’s going to be some effect and go ahead and make some preparations.”
Southard said state officials likely will add more employees at its emergency center in Richmond beginning on Saturday.
“It looks like things are coming together,” she said. “And it never, ever hurts to be prepared.”
According to Cisco, the storm will take its time leaving, and the weather may not start clearing in the mid-Atlantic until the day after Halloween and Nov. 2 in the upper Northeast.
"It's almost a weeklong, five-day, six-day event," he said from a NOAA forecast center in College Park, Md. "It's going to be a widespread, serious storm."
It is likely to hit during a full moon, when tides are near their highest, increasing the risk of coastal flooding. And because many trees still have their leaves, they are more likely to topple in the event of wind and snow, meaning there could be widespread power outages lasting to Election Day.
Eastern states that saw outages that lasted for days after last year's freak Halloween snowstorm and Hurricane Irene in late August 2011 are already pressuring power companies to be more ready this time.
Asked if he expected utilities to be more prepared, Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick responded: "They'd better be."
Jersey Central Power & Light, which was criticized for its response to Irene, notified employees to be ready for extended shifts. In Pennsylvania, PPL Corp. spokesman Michael Wood said, "We're in a much better place this year."
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg on Thursday said the city was striking a tone of calm preparedness.
"What we are doing is we are taking the kind of precautions you should expect us to do, and I don't think anyone should panic," Bloomberg said. The city has opened an emergency situation room and activated its coastal storm plan.
Consolidated Edison is warning its 9 million customers in Westchester County and New York City to stay away from any downed power lines if and when the storm strikes the state.
“Treat any downed line as if it’s alive,” Con Ed spokesman Christ Olert told FoxNews.com. “Stay away.”
Olert advised residents to charge portable devices in advance and to have extra batteries on hand in the event of outages.
“We’re watching it and we’ll be prepared,” Con Ed spokesman Chris Olert told FoxNews.com. “We’ll have extra crews available and, if need be, we’ll go to 12-hour shifts.”
Some have compared the tempest to the so-called Perfect Storm that struck off the coast of New England in 1991, but that one hit a less populated area. Nor is this one like last year's Halloween storm, which was merely an early snowfall.
"The Perfect Storm only did $200 million of damage and I'm thinking a billion" this time, Masters said. "Yeah, it will be worse."
As it made its way across the Caribbean, Sandy was blamed for at least 20 deaths. The 18th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season hit the Bahamas after cutting across Cuba, where it tore roofs off homes and damaged fragile coffee and tomato crops.
Norje Pupo, a 66-year-old retiree in Holguin, was helping his son clean up early Thursday after an enormous tree toppled in his garden.
"The hurricane really hit us hard," he said. "As you can see, we were very affected. The houses are not poorly made here, but some may have been damaged."
FoxNews.com's Joshua Rhett Miller and the Associated Press contributed to this report.
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2012...for-pre-halloween-frankenstorm/#ixzz2APSimqax
http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2012...for-pre-halloween-frankenstorm/#ixzz2AP81zjXW
East Coast prepares for pre-Halloween 'Frankenstorm'
Published October 26, 2012
FoxNews.com
The pre-Halloween hybrid weather monster that federal forecasters call "Frankenstorm" is looking more ominous by the hour for the East Coast, and utilities and local governments are getting ready.
Meteorologists expect a natural horror show of high wind, heavy rain, extreme tides and maybe snow to the west beginning early Sunday, peaking with the arrival of Hurricane Sandy on Tuesday and lingering past Halloween on Wednesday.
With a rare mix of three big merging weather systems over a densely populated region, experts predict at least $1 billion in damage.
Hurricane Sandy, which has killed 21 in the Caribbean, including 11 in Cuba and nine in Haiti, is currently sweeping through the Bahamas and is barreling north. A wintry storm is chugging across the country from the west. And frigid air is streaming south from Canada.
And if they meet Tuesday morning around New York or New Jersey, as forecasters redict, they could create a big, wet mess that settles over the nation's most heavily populated corridor and reaches as far west as Ohio.
Utilities are lining up out-of-state work crews and canceling employees' days off to deal with expected power outages. From county disaster chiefs to the federal government, emergency officials are warning the public to be prepared. And President Barack Obama was briefed aboard Air Force One.
"It's looking like a very serious storm that could be historic," said Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the forecasting service Weather Underground. "Mother Nature is not saying, `Trick or treat.' It's just going to give tricks."
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecaster Jim Cisco, who coined the nickname Frankenstorm, said: "We don't have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting."
Government forecasters said there is a 90 percent chance -- up from 60 percent two days earlier -- that the East will get pounded.
Coastal areas from Florida to Maine will feel some effects, but the storm is expected to vent the worst of its fury on New Jersey and the New York City area, which could see around 5 inches of rain and gale-force winds close to 40 mph. Eastern Ohio, southwestern Pennsylvania and western Virginia could get snow.
Virginia's Department of Emergency Management are advising residents to make preparations in advance and to closely watch local forecasts.
“We are taking the forecast seriously,” VDEM spokeswoman Laura Southard told FoxNews.com. “We are in close contact with the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center, so we’re getting the best information we can.”
Residents in the storm’s expected path, Southard said, should have a three days’ supply of water on hand, or one gallon per person per day, enough for drinking, cooking and some bathing.
“They should have at least a 3-day supply and food that doesn’t need electricity to prepare it,” she said.
To combat extended power outages, Southard suggested residents purchase battery-powered radios and extra batteries.
“Pay attention,” she said. “Expect that there’s going to be some effect and go ahead and make some preparations.”
Southard said state officials likely will add more employees at its emergency center in Richmond beginning on Saturday.
“It looks like things are coming together,” she said. “And it never, ever hurts to be prepared.”
According to Cisco, the storm will take its time leaving, and the weather may not start clearing in the mid-Atlantic until the day after Halloween and Nov. 2 in the upper Northeast.
"It's almost a weeklong, five-day, six-day event," he said from a NOAA forecast center in College Park, Md. "It's going to be a widespread, serious storm."
It is likely to hit during a full moon, when tides are near their highest, increasing the risk of coastal flooding. And because many trees still have their leaves, they are more likely to topple in the event of wind and snow, meaning there could be widespread power outages lasting to Election Day.
Eastern states that saw outages that lasted for days after last year's freak Halloween snowstorm and Hurricane Irene in late August 2011 are already pressuring power companies to be more ready this time.
Asked if he expected utilities to be more prepared, Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick responded: "They'd better be."
Jersey Central Power & Light, which was criticized for its response to Irene, notified employees to be ready for extended shifts. In Pennsylvania, PPL Corp. spokesman Michael Wood said, "We're in a much better place this year."
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg on Thursday said the city was striking a tone of calm preparedness.
"What we are doing is we are taking the kind of precautions you should expect us to do, and I don't think anyone should panic," Bloomberg said. The city has opened an emergency situation room and activated its coastal storm plan.
Consolidated Edison is warning its 9 million customers in Westchester County and New York City to stay away from any downed power lines if and when the storm strikes the state.
“Treat any downed line as if it’s alive,” Con Ed spokesman Christ Olert told FoxNews.com. “Stay away.”
Olert advised residents to charge portable devices in advance and to have extra batteries on hand in the event of outages.
“We’re watching it and we’ll be prepared,” Con Ed spokesman Chris Olert told FoxNews.com. “We’ll have extra crews available and, if need be, we’ll go to 12-hour shifts.”
Some have compared the tempest to the so-called Perfect Storm that struck off the coast of New England in 1991, but that one hit a less populated area. Nor is this one like last year's Halloween storm, which was merely an early snowfall.
"The Perfect Storm only did $200 million of damage and I'm thinking a billion" this time, Masters said. "Yeah, it will be worse."
As it made its way across the Caribbean, Sandy was blamed for at least 20 deaths. The 18th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season hit the Bahamas after cutting across Cuba, where it tore roofs off homes and damaged fragile coffee and tomato crops.
Norje Pupo, a 66-year-old retiree in Holguin, was helping his son clean up early Thursday after an enormous tree toppled in his garden.
"The hurricane really hit us hard," he said. "As you can see, we were very affected. The houses are not poorly made here, but some may have been damaged."
FoxNews.com's Joshua Rhett Miller and the Associated Press contributed to this report.
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2012...for-pre-halloween-frankenstorm/#ixzz2APSimqax
hunybee
Veteran Member
i know, i'm just joking around. if we had a cat 3 hurricane, i'd be wetting my pants
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
HEY!!! I resemble that...NOT!!!
I grew up in central NY....town of 1500 (if you part counted the cows)...nearest town of 10K was 15 miles away.. We really DO understand rural...though when I went to pick up a car 5 yrs ago, the "train" ride through much of Joisey didn't show a lot of clear ground....
I grew up in central NY....town of 1500 (if you part counted the cows)...nearest town of 10K was 15 miles away.. We really DO understand rural...though when I went to pick up a car 5 yrs ago, the "train" ride through much of Joisey didn't show a lot of clear ground....
Lilbitsnana
On TB every waking moment
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
952 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012
VALID 12Z TUE OCT 30 2012 - 12Z FRI NOV 02 2012
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS LIKELY TO
SPREAD HIGH WINDS/HEAVY RAINS AND INTERIOR HEAVY SNOWS FROM THE
CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA...
GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
====================
A RETROGRADING POSITIVE ANOMALY MOVING FROM SOUTHERN GREENLAND
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FAVORS A QUASI-STATIONARY DEEP CYCLONE NEAR
THE NORTHEAST, IN THIS CASE HURRICANE SANDY AND ITS POST-TROPICAL
REMAINS. OTHERWISE...RIDGING IS GENERAL EXPECTED OUT
WEST...THOUGH FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO SEND AMPLE
ENERGY/HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN, THOUGH ISSUES
REMAIN WITH SANDY'S FUTURE COURSE AND STRENGTH.
MODEL PREFERENCE
================
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) TRACK NOW BEST RESEMBLES THE
00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF SANDY
MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN BASED UPON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...A
PROCESS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TUESDAY PER NHC. THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THE 00 UTC ECMWF) SHOW PRESSURE SOLUTIONS
WELL BEYOND WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NEW JERSEY/NEW
YORK COAST (EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS HURRICANE)
EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
(CANADIAN, GFS, AND ECMWF INCLUDED) HAS SHOWN A VERY STRONG BIAS
WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES GAINING LATITUDE AND/OR TRANSITIONING INTO
NON-TROPICAL STORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE YEARS... INCLUDING (BUT
NOT EXCLUSIVE TO) LESLIE 2012...ISAAC 2012...DEBBY 2012 IN THE
WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IRENE 2011 AND IGOR 2010. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NHC FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON SANDY.
THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO DEPICTS AN OVERALL FLOW
PATTERN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC THAT
IS ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THE FULL
ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS SEEMS
QUITE REASONABLE CONSIDERING DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING.
WEATHER IMPACTS
===============
PER THIS SOLUTION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AS HIGH AS
HURRICANE-FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO LASH EXPOSED AREAS OF THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES (THE COAST AND TOPOGRAPHY)...LEADING
TO POTENTIALLY SERIOUS COASTAL EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. THE
TIMING OF THE FULL MOON AND THE BUILD-UP OF TIDES OVER MULTIPLE
TIDAL CYCLES SHOULD EXACERBATE THE SITUATION ALONG THE
COAST...PARTICULARLY IN CORNERS SUCH AS THE NEW YORK BIGHT. HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS WITHIN SANDY'S WARM CONVEYOR BELT
CIRCULATION AS WELL AS ALONG ITS DRAPING WARM FRONT FROM THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENG AND ERN
CANADA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD MEANWHILE ALLOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WITHIN ITS COMMA
HEAD PATTERN UNDER THE SUPPORTING/COOLING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO FALL AS CENTERED/FOCUSING OVER THE CENTRAL THEN NRN
APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE SYSTEM'S COLD SECTOR. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AS IT PULLS NORTHWARD THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD
SLACKEN AS SHOULD NERN US PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/COVERAGE...BUT
EXPECT THAT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT CONSIDERING TROPICAL
ORIGIN OF THE LOW.
UPSTREAM...A SOLUTION CLOSEST TO THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
SLOWS FROM HPC CONTINUITY SLIGHTLY THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF ERN
PACIFIC SYSTEM ENERGY ACROSS THE WRN US MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...MORE
SLUGGISH TO BUMP INTO A LEAD AMBIENT MEAN MID-UPPER RIDGE
POSITION. THIS SOLUTION OFFERS STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PRECIPIATION/MOUNTAIN SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NWRN US NEXT
WEEK...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR MEDIUM RANGE DAYS 4-7 LIQUID
AMOUNTS UPWARDS TO 5 INCHES OVER MOST FAVORED PAC NW COASTAL
TERRAIN AND THE CASCADES...WITH DECREASING BUT STILL WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS SPREADING FURTHER INLAND.
ROTH/SCHICHTEL
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
952 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012
VALID 12Z TUE OCT 30 2012 - 12Z FRI NOV 02 2012
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS LIKELY TO
SPREAD HIGH WINDS/HEAVY RAINS AND INTERIOR HEAVY SNOWS FROM THE
CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA...
GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
====================
A RETROGRADING POSITIVE ANOMALY MOVING FROM SOUTHERN GREENLAND
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FAVORS A QUASI-STATIONARY DEEP CYCLONE NEAR
THE NORTHEAST, IN THIS CASE HURRICANE SANDY AND ITS POST-TROPICAL
REMAINS. OTHERWISE...RIDGING IS GENERAL EXPECTED OUT
WEST...THOUGH FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO SEND AMPLE
ENERGY/HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN, THOUGH ISSUES
REMAIN WITH SANDY'S FUTURE COURSE AND STRENGTH.
MODEL PREFERENCE
================
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) TRACK NOW BEST RESEMBLES THE
00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF SANDY
MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN BASED UPON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...A
PROCESS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TUESDAY PER NHC. THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THE 00 UTC ECMWF) SHOW PRESSURE SOLUTIONS
WELL BEYOND WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NEW JERSEY/NEW
YORK COAST (EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS HURRICANE)
EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
(CANADIAN, GFS, AND ECMWF INCLUDED) HAS SHOWN A VERY STRONG BIAS
WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES GAINING LATITUDE AND/OR TRANSITIONING INTO
NON-TROPICAL STORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE YEARS... INCLUDING (BUT
NOT EXCLUSIVE TO) LESLIE 2012...ISAAC 2012...DEBBY 2012 IN THE
WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IRENE 2011 AND IGOR 2010. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NHC FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON SANDY.
THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO DEPICTS AN OVERALL FLOW
PATTERN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC THAT
IS ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THE FULL
ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS SEEMS
QUITE REASONABLE CONSIDERING DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING.
WEATHER IMPACTS
===============
PER THIS SOLUTION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AS HIGH AS
HURRICANE-FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO LASH EXPOSED AREAS OF THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES (THE COAST AND TOPOGRAPHY)...LEADING
TO POTENTIALLY SERIOUS COASTAL EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. THE
TIMING OF THE FULL MOON AND THE BUILD-UP OF TIDES OVER MULTIPLE
TIDAL CYCLES SHOULD EXACERBATE THE SITUATION ALONG THE
COAST...PARTICULARLY IN CORNERS SUCH AS THE NEW YORK BIGHT. HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS WITHIN SANDY'S WARM CONVEYOR BELT
CIRCULATION AS WELL AS ALONG ITS DRAPING WARM FRONT FROM THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENG AND ERN
CANADA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD MEANWHILE ALLOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WITHIN ITS COMMA
HEAD PATTERN UNDER THE SUPPORTING/COOLING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO FALL AS CENTERED/FOCUSING OVER THE CENTRAL THEN NRN
APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE SYSTEM'S COLD SECTOR. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AS IT PULLS NORTHWARD THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD
SLACKEN AS SHOULD NERN US PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/COVERAGE...BUT
EXPECT THAT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT CONSIDERING TROPICAL
ORIGIN OF THE LOW.
UPSTREAM...A SOLUTION CLOSEST TO THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
SLOWS FROM HPC CONTINUITY SLIGHTLY THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF ERN
PACIFIC SYSTEM ENERGY ACROSS THE WRN US MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...MORE
SLUGGISH TO BUMP INTO A LEAD AMBIENT MEAN MID-UPPER RIDGE
POSITION. THIS SOLUTION OFFERS STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PRECIPIATION/MOUNTAIN SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NWRN US NEXT
WEEK...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR MEDIUM RANGE DAYS 4-7 LIQUID
AMOUNTS UPWARDS TO 5 INCHES OVER MOST FAVORED PAC NW COASTAL
TERRAIN AND THE CASCADES...WITH DECREASING BUT STILL WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS SPREADING FURTHER INLAND.
ROTH/SCHICHTEL
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
In short, if you are east of Chicago and north of Sherman's track you ought to be limbering up to make the big bend and stretch to kiss your fundament good bye.
That is likely the biggest bunch of temporizing I have seen from NWS in AGES.
Decyphering that suggests that Meemur and I will get some serious Lake Effect Plus weather next week, and Summerthyme, well, you remember that 50" weekend y'all had a few years ago???
That and y'all up on the coast can expect the tides to march inland.
But seriously, this isn't an empty hype storm anymore.
PLEASE take this one seriously, gang. She isn't going to be very polite, NOR is she going to be short lived. Yes, she's movin pretty quickly now but that report above STRONGLY suggests that, as and after she spreads out she isn't going very far very fast after landfall. Which means a LOT of precip, mixed in nature. And THAT means things getting touch n go....
Please cover yer asses so you don't have to kiss em byebye...
That is likely the biggest bunch of temporizing I have seen from NWS in AGES.
Decyphering that suggests that Meemur and I will get some serious Lake Effect Plus weather next week, and Summerthyme, well, you remember that 50" weekend y'all had a few years ago???
That and y'all up on the coast can expect the tides to march inland.
But seriously, this isn't an empty hype storm anymore.
PLEASE take this one seriously, gang. She isn't going to be very polite, NOR is she going to be short lived. Yes, she's movin pretty quickly now but that report above STRONGLY suggests that, as and after she spreads out she isn't going very far very fast after landfall. Which means a LOT of precip, mixed in nature. And THAT means things getting touch n go....
Please cover yer asses so you don't have to kiss em byebye...
hunybee
Veteran Member
nope, its not hype
and all earlier joking aside, this is serious. please start getting really ready if you have not yet. if nothing happens in your area, then you will have had a dry run and it will only be a good thing for when something does hit you. stuff is already running out in some areas i am hearing, so don't wait. p,lease get ready
and all earlier joking aside, this is serious. please start getting really ready if you have not yet. if nothing happens in your area, then you will have had a dry run and it will only be a good thing for when something does hit you. stuff is already running out in some areas i am hearing, so don't wait. p,lease get ready
Lilbitsnana
On TB every waking moment
000
WTNT33 KNHC 261457
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012
...SANDY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR GREAT ABACO ISLAND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 76.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND REPLACED THE HURRICANE
WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
EXCEPT FOR GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO
CRAIG KEY AND FOR FLORIDA BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS EXCEPT FOR GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE SITE AT LAKE WORTH
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H WITH A GUST
TO 53 MPH...85 KM/H.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA IN THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC..WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
WARNING AREAS IN THE BAHAMAS...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT
SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT33 KNHC 261457
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012
...SANDY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR GREAT ABACO ISLAND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 76.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND REPLACED THE HURRICANE
WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
EXCEPT FOR GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO
CRAIG KEY AND FOR FLORIDA BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS EXCEPT FOR GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE SITE AT LAKE WORTH
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H WITH A GUST
TO 53 MPH...85 KM/H.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA IN THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC..WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
WARNING AREAS IN THE BAHAMAS...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT
SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Lilbitsnana
On TB every waking moment
Lilbitsnana
On TB every waking moment
Does anyone receive email alerts/info from Jeff Lindner? I have seen a posted copy of one today over on st2k that I think explains things very well as far as possibilities and why, but I didn't receive it so not sure about cut and paste from st2k to here.
If someone who rcvd one could post it here.
Lilbitsnana
On TB every waking moment
Thanks bethshaya, that's the one I meant.
bobwohl, you might want to read the above post.
bobwohl, you might want to read the above post.
WildDaisy
God has a plan, Trust it!
Its not a hurricane. it will be a hybrid storm (Nor'easter and Hurricane) by the time it hits. So "Cat 1" isnt a reference. It is the same as me saying why you people in Texas have so much trouble with a foot of snow. We've been through worse here...what's the problem?
The problem is layout of the land masses, population density, preparedness and percentage of population along the coastline.
Storm surge will bring major flooding to streets with major populations. Imagine having 20,000 people on a one street block that all need to be rescued by boat then multiply that by many blocks. Many people in the immediate NYC Metro area (CT, LI, NYC, NJ) do not own cars. They get around by subway. That's millions of people stranded.
Because this hybrid storm is not like a hurricane or a nor'easter alone, its winds are different and cannot be monitored on the same hurricane scale. In a hurricane, the highest winds are nearest the eye of the storm. In a hybrid, the highest winds will be on the outer bands of the storm. The highest in the NE quadrant of the storm. This will push the sea into LI sound and Ny Harbor. This will flood out lower Manhattan and the shorelines of CT and Long Island. Remember, most of NYC is at sea level.
Lilbitsnana
On TB every waking moment
There's also this from Dr. Jeff Masters blog
Todays discussion of Sandys impacts on East Coast of U.S by Dr Jeff Masters.
Forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is expected to remain a high 30 - 55 knots for the next four days, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure to its west. The high shear should keep Sandy from intensifying the way most hurricanes do--by pulling heat energy out of the ocean. However, the trough approaching from the west will inject into Sandy what is called "baroclinic" energy--the energy one can derive from the atmosphere when warm and cold air masses lie in close proximity to each other. This transition will reduce the hurricane's peak winds, but strong winds will spread out over a wider area of ocean. This will increase the total amount of wind energy of the storm, keeping the storm surge threat high. This large wind field will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet on Monday and Tuesday to the right of where the center makes landfall, on the mid-Atlantic or New York coasts. These storm surge heights will be among the highest ever recorded along the affected coasts, and will have the potential to cause hundreds of millions of dollars in damage.
The latest set of 00Z (8 pm EDT) and 06Z (2 am EDT) computer model runs still have wide differences in the timing and landfall location for Sandy. The ECMWF has been very consistent in its handling of Sandy, and continues to predict that Sandy will hit Delaware or Maryland on Monday afternoon--basically the same forecast it has had for three days. Our other top model for forecasting hurricane tracks, the GFS, has been more inconsistent, and predicts a landfall on Long Island, New York on Tuesday afternoon.
Severe impacts likely in the U.S.
Sandy's expected landfall along the mid-Atlantic coast is likely to be a billion-dollar disaster. Sandy should bring sustained winds of 50 - 60 mph with gusts over hurricane force to a large section of coast, and the storm may be moving slowly enough that these conditions will persist for a full 24 hours. With most of the trees still in leaf, there will be widespread power outages due to downed trees. Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 400 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its winds would ordinarily suggest. The latest H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at 2.1 on a scale of 0 to 6, and the destructive potential of the storm surge much higher, at 4.2 on a scale of 0 to 6. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. With Sandy's strongest winds expected to last at least 12 hours near the time of landfall, the peak storm surge will affect the coast for at least one high tide cycle, and possibly two. This will greatly increase the potential for storm surge damage and coastal erosion. If Sandy hits Long Island, as the GFS model predicts, the storm surge will be capable of over-topping the flood walls in Manhattan and flooding portions of the New York City subway system. Fresh water flooding from heavy rains is also a huge concern. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches will occur over several hundred mile-long swath of coast, with isolated amounts of 15 inches possible. Fortunately, soils are dry and river levels are low over most of the threatened region, which should keep Sandy's river flooding lower than that experienced last year during Hurricane Irene. Nevertheless, Sandy is shaping up to be a historic storm for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. that has few precedents.
Jeff Masters
Todays discussion of Sandys impacts on East Coast of U.S by Dr Jeff Masters.
Forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is expected to remain a high 30 - 55 knots for the next four days, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure to its west. The high shear should keep Sandy from intensifying the way most hurricanes do--by pulling heat energy out of the ocean. However, the trough approaching from the west will inject into Sandy what is called "baroclinic" energy--the energy one can derive from the atmosphere when warm and cold air masses lie in close proximity to each other. This transition will reduce the hurricane's peak winds, but strong winds will spread out over a wider area of ocean. This will increase the total amount of wind energy of the storm, keeping the storm surge threat high. This large wind field will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet on Monday and Tuesday to the right of where the center makes landfall, on the mid-Atlantic or New York coasts. These storm surge heights will be among the highest ever recorded along the affected coasts, and will have the potential to cause hundreds of millions of dollars in damage.
The latest set of 00Z (8 pm EDT) and 06Z (2 am EDT) computer model runs still have wide differences in the timing and landfall location for Sandy. The ECMWF has been very consistent in its handling of Sandy, and continues to predict that Sandy will hit Delaware or Maryland on Monday afternoon--basically the same forecast it has had for three days. Our other top model for forecasting hurricane tracks, the GFS, has been more inconsistent, and predicts a landfall on Long Island, New York on Tuesday afternoon.
Severe impacts likely in the U.S.
Sandy's expected landfall along the mid-Atlantic coast is likely to be a billion-dollar disaster. Sandy should bring sustained winds of 50 - 60 mph with gusts over hurricane force to a large section of coast, and the storm may be moving slowly enough that these conditions will persist for a full 24 hours. With most of the trees still in leaf, there will be widespread power outages due to downed trees. Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 400 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its winds would ordinarily suggest. The latest H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at 2.1 on a scale of 0 to 6, and the destructive potential of the storm surge much higher, at 4.2 on a scale of 0 to 6. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. With Sandy's strongest winds expected to last at least 12 hours near the time of landfall, the peak storm surge will affect the coast for at least one high tide cycle, and possibly two. This will greatly increase the potential for storm surge damage and coastal erosion. If Sandy hits Long Island, as the GFS model predicts, the storm surge will be capable of over-topping the flood walls in Manhattan and flooding portions of the New York City subway system. Fresh water flooding from heavy rains is also a huge concern. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches will occur over several hundred mile-long swath of coast, with isolated amounts of 15 inches possible. Fortunately, soils are dry and river levels are low over most of the threatened region, which should keep Sandy's river flooding lower than that experienced last year during Hurricane Irene. Nevertheless, Sandy is shaping up to be a historic storm for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. that has few precedents.
Jeff Masters
Mzkitty
I give up.
Yup, it may be really bad. Just found this, and I'm posting it for the picture. There is another great pic at the site that I couldn't copy, but check it out:
Historic Sandy Targets New York, New Jersey, Delmarva
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
October 26, 2012; 10:20 AM
An extremely rare and dangerous storm will turn in from the Atlantic, putting 60 million people in its path and could lead to billions of dollars in damage.
The worst of the storm will be Monday through Tuesday, but the storm's aftermath may linger days later. Conditions will deteriorate from the mid-Atlantic to southern New England Sunday and Sunday night.
Ripple-effect flight delays and cancellations are possible over a large part of the nation, as the storm will target major airports from Boston to Washington, D.C., with New York and Philadelphia in the middle. Many aircraft originate from or travel to these hubs on a daily basis.
Impacts from heavy rain and wind will be felt hundreds of miles inland and the power in some neighborhoods could be out for days.
Much more, continued here:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/historic-sandy-targets-new-yor/701206
Historic Sandy Targets New York, New Jersey, Delmarva
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
October 26, 2012; 10:20 AM
An extremely rare and dangerous storm will turn in from the Atlantic, putting 60 million people in its path and could lead to billions of dollars in damage.
The worst of the storm will be Monday through Tuesday, but the storm's aftermath may linger days later. Conditions will deteriorate from the mid-Atlantic to southern New England Sunday and Sunday night.
Ripple-effect flight delays and cancellations are possible over a large part of the nation, as the storm will target major airports from Boston to Washington, D.C., with New York and Philadelphia in the middle. Many aircraft originate from or travel to these hubs on a daily basis.
Impacts from heavy rain and wind will be felt hundreds of miles inland and the power in some neighborhoods could be out for days.
Much more, continued here:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/historic-sandy-targets-new-yor/701206
Attachments
I don't see any way that this cannot affect the voting in the East. There are at least two swing states involved. If the power was out for a week after the snowstorm last year, how long will it be out for the storm of the century? The storm is expected to last until the 2nd -- just four days before the election. The whole area may still be in chaos on election day. The people will not be able to vote or even leave their homes.
Repairman-Jack
Veteran Member
Worst storm does NOT = worst hurricane
The category of the storm is not the issue. It is more along the lines of timing with a cold from coming into the area
WildDaisy
God has a plan, Trust it!
On the positive side, it also effects a huge portion of the Democratic solid states. But it may end up in a case of the popular vote going to Romney and electoral going to Obama. Remember, it is the electoral vote that decides the president, and that doesn't always mean they go along with the popular vote. You'd think they would..but they aren't guaranteed.
As far as storm prep, I'm blessed to live in a small New England town in the NY Metro area. We've lost power for more than a week TWICE in the last 12 months.
Our town has been absolutely fabulous with regards to prep and information. They provided breakfast and hot coffee each morning at the train station for any family needing it. Showers were available at several locations and they had two dinners hosted by local restaurants for free. The first storm was this time last year and they had to cancel Halloween for the kids. But they pulled out all the stops a few days later with a huge party for them with lots of hoopla to make up for what they missed. Calls came from emergency response every hour through the storm itself and twice a day with updates as to power restoration, complete with what roads were being worked on that day and when power would be restored and what streets were next. It was very detailed and everyone knew where they were at with regard to getting help and being prepared.
By the time the second storm hit months later, it was routine. People had already purchased what they realized they were without and better prepped to handle the extended outage. The only problem we had was the cold. We have electric heat and no fireplace (in a condo). So our plan B was moving to my parents, which worked well anyway as Mom needed help with ailing father and there were strong men there to keep the fireplaces going and move things for her. It made her feel safer too as Dad has Alzheimers and used to be the one to take care of her in storms.
We live on a river, but have been blessed in that it has not come over the retaining wall in the 25 years we have been here. We are higher up on this bank than on the other side. They get flooded with just a rain storm. Not sure why they've never corrected the situation. You'd think year after year of your home getting flooded, they'd do something about it. But this time, we are planning on it flooding on us. We will spend Saturday clearing the basement and moving valuables upstairs.
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We're talking about 30 million people not being able to vote -- two swing states and a lot of democratic states. It may come down to the early mail in voting determining the winners in those states. It's interesting that this thing is going to nail DC almost directly, at least with a very powerful punch.
Wildweasel
F-4 Phantoms Phorever
We've got GOOD NEWS. I guess.
The storm looks to be tracking far enough west our temps will not drop below freezing. So no several feet of snow for us.
However, the forecast calls for over 8" (EIGHT INCHES) of rain from the storm in the next 5-days. Given that the flooding in our area last year from Hurricane Irene only had 4 inches of rain and the flooding of 2006 only had 5 inches of rain. Getting rain instead of snow might not be such a good deal.
Sure 8 inches of rain could equal up to 8 feet of snow, but probably less since it would be a heavy wet snow. That snow would melt gradually instead of all hitting the streams at once like a bunch of rain. And given the saturated ground around here, the forecast sustained 40mph winds are going to topple a lot of trees that won't be able to hold-on in soggy ground.
I may not be digging out next week, I may be running the genny and waiting for the trees to be removed from the utility lines so I can get back on line.
WW
The storm looks to be tracking far enough west our temps will not drop below freezing. So no several feet of snow for us.
However, the forecast calls for over 8" (EIGHT INCHES) of rain from the storm in the next 5-days. Given that the flooding in our area last year from Hurricane Irene only had 4 inches of rain and the flooding of 2006 only had 5 inches of rain. Getting rain instead of snow might not be such a good deal.
Sure 8 inches of rain could equal up to 8 feet of snow, but probably less since it would be a heavy wet snow. That snow would melt gradually instead of all hitting the streams at once like a bunch of rain. And given the saturated ground around here, the forecast sustained 40mph winds are going to topple a lot of trees that won't be able to hold-on in soggy ground.
I may not be digging out next week, I may be running the genny and waiting for the trees to be removed from the utility lines so I can get back on line.
WW
I thought election day was Tues. Nov. 6th....
That's well over a week from now... a week AFTER the storm is to hit.
How will this effect the election?????????
mawmaw
Veteran Member
Yes I am praying for you all in the path of this also. But....seems that LA and MS SHTF for Katrina and Rita here's the Northeast's Katrina/Rita !! Same problems different area watch SAME results!!! Do not except for people to understand the fear or anger or whatevcer you feel about the results and aftermath of what's going on. You will be dissappionted. God Bless
The weather service has said that the storm will not end until the 2nd of November. In these storms historically the power is out for at least a week, and sometimes for two weeks. If the storm stops on the 2nd one week would be the ninth before power is restored and two weeks would be the fourteenth -- both well after the election. If four inches of rain can shut down the power for a week, how long will the power be out with 8-15 inches of rain and 75 mile per hour winds for four days?
I do not post much on Timebomb but have followed this site since 2000. I would suggest that you observe the size of this current storm and superimpose it in your mind over the area on the west side of Florida. It more than fills the area and reminds me of Katrina. I remember members of this board "begging" other members to get out of the area of impact of Katrina. Also, consider the density of habitation of the areas in jeoprody for this storm. IT IS NO JOKING MATTER. The tide chart is mentioned and that will be serious for these areas.
I don't believe that the president has this power. EOs can be overruled by Congress. I believe that congress would have to do this and that would have to be a super major vote by both houses in order to alter election day. It cannot be done simply by the president. He's not king, even though at times he acts like it. If they are going to do it, they would have to start very soon or the storm will hit before they can vote. Believe me, they will be leaving town.
bbkaren
Veteran Member
I hope you're right, but we shall see. I put nothing past this guy.
I did a little research. There's very little on the topic. However, I did find the article below. Although it is directly related to war, it also discusses the issue of the elections being delayed. According to the constitution, the congress sets election day. There has never been a delay in election day. There has never been a reason. Constitutionally, it would fall on congress to institute the delay. I doubt they would do it at this late of a date. Obama can't do it arbitrarily.
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Can_a_pre...a_declaration_of_war_and_has_it_ever_happened
Lilbitsnana
On TB every waking moment
The Governor of Virginia has already declared a state of emergency in preparation for Sandy, have any of the other states declared one yet?
http://www.governor.virginia.gov/news/viewRelease.cfm?id=1473
http://www.governor.virginia.gov/news/viewRelease.cfm?id=1473
Bud in Fla
Veteran Member
Heads up to Plurbius and any more of you guys near DC - Just heard on XM Radio that the bulk of the snow is expected to hit WV - up to 2 ft in some areas! Since I'm way down south, I'm not gonna panic but you guys up north and the panhandle might consider it....
Lilbitsnana
On TB every waking moment
Just saw on st2k that NYC has activated a hurricane emergency, several public schools that have been designated as storm shelters and officials are delivering chain saws to each of them (all shelters? or just the ones that are schools?). I don't have a link for more details....anyone?