Looking For Input

Friends,

I'm wanting to do a story about what it would be like to live through a Long and Severe drought here in America.

Can't seem to dig up much Good Data.

How much would the rain have to decrease to really cause widespread hunger and suffering here in America?

At what point do you think Rationing Might be instituted?

At what point would widespread riots and acts of insurrection start?

At what point would Martial Law be a Realistic Possibility?

How bad would it have to get, for there to be actual Famine and Widespread Starvation in the US?

Research convinces me that

A.} Most Famines are at least Largely do to Government and/or Transportation problems.

The Irish Potato Famine for instance. Ireland grew more than enough grain to feed its people--but the Grain fetched higher prices abroad.

Always before, when there were crop failures, the Ports were closed to prevent foodstuffs going abroad.

The British oppressors decided to leave the Ports open--though opinions differ as to motivation: Genocide or Simple Indifference.

B.} If there was several years severe Drought in the Corn Belt, farmers would switch to more drought resistant crops like Rye and Winter Wheat.

Corn walks to market.....

Four pounds of Corn to wield one pound of Pork.

Pork Production and Chicken production would shrink and the prices would go up.

Beef would be fattened much more on Pasture, would be less prime and costlier.

The major Rivers are unlikely to go completely dry.

Some increase in Irrigation might partially offset a Drought.

C.} What about the Gasohol Program?

D.} What Retaliation might 3rd World Countries make, starving as the supply of relatively cheap American Grain Dries up?

Lets assume that Fuel prices also rise--at least gradually--at first.

{I'm talking about Prolonged Drought over several years--maybe even more than a Decade.}

One Dude told me: Shut off the Water to the Big Cities for a few days, they'll riot and burn.

Shut down food shipments for a few days and they'll be eating one another.

Remember the "Burning Bakeries" Paradigm.

When there's no Bread, they will Burn the Bakeries.

i.e. The Industrial Infrastructure.

With all the Bakeries Burnt Down, what could--in Principle--have been a relatively short-term Crisis, is now a long-lasting one. Perhaps it will now be a Permanent Problem.

Appreciate any input.

.....RVM45

You might want to do some research on the Drought of the 1950s in Texas -- that from what I have heard from the local farmers and other historical sources. The Medina River - west of San Antonio - is dammed to form Medina Lake - during the 50's Medina Lake dried up to the point the base of the lake was only a river. Many of the rivers in Texas dried up. There should be some data on line.

DM

There are many aspects of this situation that are already in play. The Ogalala aquifer has been seriously depleted and towns in OK and TX are already suffering from wells going dry. Hydrolgists suggest it could take 6,000 years of normal rainfall to refill the aquifer.

Riots that occurred last year or the year before in Egypt were because of shortages of imported grain, and much of their grain has come from the U.S. in the past. Those riots evolved into the process that has resulted in the Moslem Brotherhood rising to power. President Morsi has just purged the Army, the only stable part of the society, of all generals and many officers who were either pro-West or who had supported the 1973 peace treaty with Israel. He recently stated that the treaty and all it entailed was no longer in Egypt's best interest.

A similar drought in Russsian and Ukraine will supposedly decrease this year's wheat harvest by a sizeable percentage similar to what we will suffer in corn, soybeans and wheat.

Many of our cattle herds are going to have to be slaughtered and sold this fall because the hay fields have also dried up. The primary horse fodder, besides hay is COB, a blend of corn, oats and barley. There are already large numbers of horses whose owners can't give them away because of current prices--maybe dog food will get cheaper?

I believe that there have also been systemic droughts that have severely cut the Chinese wheat production for the last several years. They also have been buying grain from us regularly in the past.

Plug all these factors into the expanding "civil war" in Syria that Iran is determined to forestall at any price, and new intel reports that Iran will have enough 90% uranium for one or more bombs by the first of October, and we have the spark that will set the tinder off that others are piling up under the dry logs.

Hmmm, perhaps I should try my hand at writing something along these lines. Probably not. Good luck with your next project. BTW, I really liked "Bright". GF

Something to remember about the Irish famine; families starved an left sitting in their barns were things like corn in the bins. See that was animal feed and people thought it wasn't for human consumption. They dug up clams and got sick from eating them raw. Ignorance also played a role on who died and who didn't.

Check on main page, http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?410915-Mississippi-River-Dries-up-as-Drought-Worsens , Mississippi River Dries up.

DM