ALERT INBOUND EARTH DIRECTED---X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare

onetimer

onetimer

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 81
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 12 1735 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 12 1537 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Jul 12 1649 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 12 1730 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.4
Optical Class: 2b
Location: S15W01
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html
 
Racing22

Racing22

Crew Chief
From: Solarham.com
Updated 7/12/2012 @ 17:40 UTC
1520 Produces X1.4 Solar Flare and CME
The silence is broken! A major and long duration eruption reaching X1.4 around Sunspot 1520 peaked at 16:52 UTC Thursday afternoon. Type II and IV Sweep Frequency Events were recorded. This event was also responsible for a Strong R3 Radio Blackout on the sunlit side of Earth. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection will most likely result from this blast.

Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com, the best place for the latest information. You can also follow SolarHam.com on Facebook and by clicking "LIKE".

Radiation Storm: The S1 Minor Radiation Storm threshold has been reached. Earthbound Proton levels continue to increase.

CME UPDATE: A Coronal Mass Ejection is now visible in the latest STEREO Behind COR2 images. It does look to be Earth directed.
 
FarOut

FarOut

Inactive
For those of you planning to fly over the next few days please check if your flight follows a great circle path over polar latitudes. If it does I would suggest postponing it until the CME passes.
 
Racing22

Racing22

Crew Chief
AzProtector said:
For those of us with little knowledge,
..what's it mean?
Click to expand...

Put on your lead lined underwear and you should be fine!!!

Kidding....

We could have some disruptions in satellite communications and radio traffic/transmissions and if it is a direct hit, maybe some issues with power distribution. Usually, we get some nice Northern Light shows in the northern areas... we will have to see actually how big the CME is and how much "power" it's carrying.
 
Hfcomms

Hfcomms

EN66iq
HF communications is going to suck for awhile as it has the last few days. Have had a very difficult time on the bands. This is an 'X' class event which is big but it's on the low end of 'Big'. Most likely that you won't see any direct results but the northern lights should be quite active for the next day or two and you should be able to see it more south than normal. In addition there could be some temporary satellite blackouts and there is a chance [albeit a small one] of some power grid fluctuations. This isn't a kill shot by any stretch of the imagination.
 
Red Baron

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
Space Weather Message Code: WARPC0
Serial Number: 64
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 12 1740 UTC

WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 12 1739 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Jul 12 0400 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1971
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 12 0855 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 12 0855 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 12 1900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html
 
packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Warthog said:
:ld:Power grid very weak right now folks!!!! Prepare for disruptions!!!!!!!!!!:ld:
Click to expand...

This^ The temps are on the rise here for Iowa, after a blissful week of mid to high 80's. I'd prepare for rolling brown outs and rolling black outs especially in areas where the temps are in the 90's+ range.

K-
 
Hfcomms

Hfcomms

EN66iq
Running Dog said:
Where? Please explain. Simple minded person, here.
Thanks.
Click to expand...

What it means is this is nothing to be overtly alarmed about. Minor disruptions if any for the average person. While the chance is not zero of various outages this particular Flare even though X-class is not strong enough or a direct enough of a hit to cause major disruptions to most people. It will be a PITA for some people in various industries but for most it will be a non event.
 
Vegas321

Vegas321

Live free and survive
CME Update. As per the latest CME Track from the Goddard Space Center, the fast moving Plasma cloud from today will impact our Geomagnetic field on Saturday with a nearly direct hit. Geomagnetic storming will be possible and this could lead to very nice Aurora displays in the higher latitudes. Please note that with any CME prediction, nothing is for certain.

www.solarham.com
 
LightEcho

LightEcho

Has No Life - Lives on TB
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 12 0855 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 12 1900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Click to expand...

This is the primary hit- Pakistan- Afghanistan to Russia......

My mistake... it says latitutde, not longitude.
 
Marthanoir

Marthanoir

TB Fanatic
having a bitch of an evening trying to stay on the net, my wifi keeps resetting and zero signal on the cell phone,
 
onetimer

onetimer

Has No Life - Lives on TB
According to a*forecast track*prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms. Sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.
 
WildDaisy

WildDaisy

God has a plan, Trust it!
FarOut said:
For those of you planning to fly over the next few days please check if your flight follows a great circle path over polar latitudes. If it does I would suggest postponing it until the CME passes.
Click to expand...

Just my freakin luck. I fly once a year and I go out on Sunday from JFK to SLC. Hope it passes by then.
 
W

Warthog

Tusk Up
Hfcomms said:
What it means is this is nothing to be overtly alarmed about. Minor disruptions if any for the average person. While the chance is not zero of various outages this particular Flare even though X-class is not strong enough or a direct enough of a hit to cause major disruptions to most people. It will be a PITA for some people in various industries but for most it will be a non event.
Click to expand...
Then again?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm
 
Hansa44

Hansa44

Justine Case
Marthanoir said:
having a bitch of an evening trying to stay on the net, my wifi keeps resetting and zero signal on the cell phone,
Click to expand...


Yeah!!! Us too. It's been a nightmare since this morning. TV, net, and phone. On off, on, off, on off. Have tried to post this short post 4 different times. Will try again.

We have AT&T
 
Countrymouse

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
onetimer said:
According to a*forecast track*prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms. Sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.
Click to expand...

So anywhere from 6:20 on or so on Saturday I should be worried?

Or could it come in 7 hours earlier than that? (if I understand you correctly)

Also, which side of earth will be turned "toward" the CME when it hits---or is that still a matter of conjecture?
 
Giskard

Giskard

Only human
History of pretty good earthquake within 2-3 days after such an event, somewhere in the world. I'll be curious to see it this still holds up.
 
ainitfunny

ainitfunny

Saved, to glorify God.
That flare is nothing compared to the one a while back that was such a big XFLARE that it had NO PLACE ON THE SCALE. They had to redesign the scale that measures XFlares to even guess at how big it was. They never even IMAGINED a flare could be that big.

X 1.4? That is NOTHING compared to what has hit earth in the VERY recent past.
Largest Coronal Mass Ejection in Recorded History on March 3, 2011
2011 March 7

This one on 4 November 2003.http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/hotshots/2003_11_04/
I think they finally put it at an X28

And that doesn't hold a candle to "The Carrington Event" back in the 1800"s they say.

So, don't sweat the small stuff folks.
 
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packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
ainitfunny said:
That flare is nothing compared to the one a while back that was such a big XFLARE that it had NO PLACE ON THE SCALE. They had to redesign the scale that measures XFlares to even guess at how big it was. They never even IMAGINED a flare could be that big.

X 1.4? That is NOTHING compared to what has hit earth in the VERY recent past.
Largest Coronal Mass Ejection in Recorded History on March 3, 2011
2011 March 7

This one on 4 November 2003.http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/hotshots/2003_11_04/
I think they finally put it at an X28

And that doesn't hold a candle to "The Carrington Event" back in the 1800"s they say.

So, don't sweat the small stuff folks.
Click to expand...

I was reading yesterday on one of the NASA sites about CME"s that it's not just about the size of the flare but the duration, the one in 2011 was of a long duration as well as just being huge! There was another one last year that was a M class that was of long duration, major quake in NZ soon after that one.
 
Heliobas Disciple

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
Here's a youtube video showing a compilation of various images of the CME.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlEVvJhUoZA
(fair use applies)

Today's X1.4-class solar flare released a Type O Coronal Mass Ejection, traveling at approx. 1,400 km/s. It is traveling Earth bound but and its impact will create some geomagnetic storms, currently estimated between G2 and G4 levels. That could produce aurorae as far South as Northern California and Alabama and central UK/ Europe.

Credit: NASA SDO
 
packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Heliobas Disciple said:
Here's a youtube video showing a compilation of various images of the CME.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlEVvJhUoZA
(fair use applies)

Today's X1.4-class solar flare released a Type O Coronal Mass Ejection, traveling at approx. 1,400 km/s. It is traveling Earth bound but and its impact will create some geomagnetic storms, currently estimated between G2 and G4 levels. That could produce aurorae as far South as Northern California and Alabama and central UK/ Europe.

Credit: NASA SDO
Click to expand...

Type O that's a new one on me!
 
Heliobas Disciple

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
packyderms_wife said:
Type O that's a new one on me!
Click to expand...

From a page on a different CME, a type O CME is defined as follows:

NASA labels CMEs at this fairly fast, but not extreme, speed as Type O –for "occasional," since CMEs with speeds in this range happen a few times per year.
Click to expand...
(see: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News050912-Mflares.html) fair use applies


As for today's CME being a type O, this is what Goddard has to say:

http://swc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/20120712-AL-005
(fair use applies)

Type O CME detected; spacecraft between Sun and Earth can be impacted
Submitted by lmays on Thu, 07/12/2012 - 16:02

## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Center ( SWC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Alert
##
## Message Issue Date: 2012-07-12T19:37:00Z
## Message ID: 20120712-AL-005

## Alert Summary:

Type O CME detected by STEREO-B COR2.

Start time of the event: 2012-07-12T16:54Z (STEREO-B-COR2).

Based on rough estimates (only STEREO-B-COR2 images are available currently) the CME parameters are:

Estimated speed: ~1400 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: ~ 70 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -6/-17 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.

The CME is associated with the X1.4 flare peaked at 2012-07-12T16:52Z (see alert 20120712-AL-001).

All spacecraft between the source region (AR 1520 - S15W01) and Earth (including MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO) can be impacted. Updates on this event will be provided when available.

Activity ID: 2012-07-12T16:54:00-CME-001.
Click to expand...
 
onetimer

onetimer

Has No Life - Lives on TB
ainitfunny said:
That flare is nothing compared to the one a while back that was such a big XFLARE that it had NO PLACE ON THE SCALE. They had to redesign the scale that measures XFlares to even guess at how big it was. They never even IMAGINED a flare could be that big.

X 1.4? That is NOTHING compared to what has hit earth in the VERY recent past.
Largest Coronal Mass Ejection in Recorded History on March 3, 2011
2011 March 7

This one on 4 November 2003.http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/hotshots/2003_11_04/
I think they finally put it at an X28

And that doesn't hold a candle to "The Carrington Event" back in the 1800"s they say.

So, don't sweat the small stuff folks.
Click to expand...

That was not directed towards earth, big difference.
 
Hansa44

Hansa44

Justine Case
Countrymouse said:
So anywhere from 6:20 on or so on Saturday I should be worried?

Or could it come in 7 hours earlier than that? (if I understand you correctly)

Also, which side of earth will be turned "toward" the CME when it hits---or is that still a matter of conjecture?
Click to expand...


CM....I'd say no worries. Could be a little radio interference but not much. They are saying the Auroras may be terrific here. To watch for them and I think those in the south will have the best view,

We will be facing the CME.

This is what I was able to pull together from different space sites. :)

http://spaceweather.com/

X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because this sunspot is directly facing Earth, everything about the blast was geoeffective. For one thing, it hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward our planet. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms. Sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend. Geomagnetic storm alerts: text, voice.

The explosion also strobed Earth with a pulse of extreme UV radiation, shown here in a movie recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:



The UV pulse partially ionized Earth's upper atmosphere, disturbing the normal propagation of radio signals around the planet. Monitoring stations in Norway, Ireland and Italy recorded the sudden ionospheric disturbance.

Finally, solar protons accelerated by the blast are swarming around Earth. The radiation storm, in progress, ranks "S1" on NOAA space weather scales, which means it poses no serious threat to satellites or astronauts. This could change if the storm continues to intensify. Stay tuned.
 
SIRR1

SIRR1

Inactive
Hansa44 said:
CM....I'd say no worries. Could be a little radio interference but not much. They are saying the Auroras may be terrific here. To watch for them and I think those in the south will have the best view,

We will be facing the CME.

This is what I was able to pull together from different space sites. :)

http://spaceweather.com/

X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because this sunspot is directly facing Earth, everything about the blast was geoeffective. For one thing, it hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward our planet. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms. Sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend. Geomagnetic storm alerts: text, voice.

The explosion also strobed Earth with a pulse of extreme UV radiation, shown here in a movie recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:



The UV pulse partially ionized Earth's upper atmosphere, disturbing the normal propagation of radio signals around the planet. Monitoring stations in Norway, Ireland and Italy recorded the sudden ionospheric disturbance.

Finally, solar protons accelerated by the blast are swarming around Earth. The radiation storm, in progress, ranks "S1" on NOAA space weather scales, which means it poses no serious threat to satellites or astronauts. This could change if the storm continues to intensify. Stay tuned.
Click to expand...





They are saying the Auroras may be terrific here.

Really, Auroras in Alabama?

Then I should be able to see them here in the St. Louis area as well, correct?

Thanks SIRR1
 
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