WAR 05/01 to 05/07 ***The***Winds***of***WAR***

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http://www.thenational.ae/news/worl...t-in-timbuktu-is-desecrated-by-al-qaeda-group

Tomb of Muslim saint in Timbuktu is desecrated by Al Qaeda group

Agence France-Presse
May 7, 2012

BAMAKO // Members of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) have desecrated a Muslim saint's tomb in the fabled city of Timbuktu, an official said last week.

"Members of AQIM, supported by [the armed Islamist group] Ansar Dine, have destroyed the tomb of Saint Sidi [Mahmoud Ben] Amar. They set fire to the tomb," the official said on condition of anonymity, adding that they had pledged to destroy others too.

Timbuktu, a Unesco World Heritage site and cradle of Islamic learning, has been under the control of AQIM and Ansar Dine since the groups took advantage of a March 22 coup to take control of northern Mali.

"They promised to destroy other tombs, Timbuktu is in shock. Now they want to take and control other tombs and manuscripts," the official said.

A local journalist confirmed the tomb was destroyed.

"This is very serious," he said.

Mali's transitional government expressed outrage over the desecration, calling it "an unspeakable act", in a statement read out on national television.

Beyond its historic mosques, the World Heritage site comprises 16 cemeteries and mausolea, according to the Unesco website.

These tombs are "essential elements in a religious system as, according to popular belief; they constitute a rampart that shields the city from all misfortune", the UN cultural organisation said.

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http://www.thenational.ae/news/world/africa/malis-islamists-flex-their-muscles

Mali's Islamists flex their muscles

Reuters
May 7, 2012

BAMAKO // In one town in northern Mali a man has been whipped for drinking alcohol. In another, pictures of unveiled women have been torn down. In a third, traditional music is no longer heard in the streets.
Related

*
Mali's military junta claims that foreign forces were involved in an attempt to reverse a March 22 coup that removed President Amadou Toumani Toure from power.Habibou Kouyate / AFP Photo
■ Counter-coup effort ignites fighting in Mali capital
* ■ Tomb of Muslim saint in Timbuktu is desecrated by Al Qaeda group
* ■ The people defend Mali's manuscripts from Tuareg militia
* Comment Manuscripts at risk

Topic

* Mali

While government soldiers were fighting each other for control of the capital in Mali's south-west corner, Islamist fighters were asserting control over the Texas-sized northern half of the country. The Islamists, some of whom are foreigners, are imposing Sharia, setting up a possible showdown with Tuareg nationalist rebels who say they want a secular state and who seized northern Mali in March alongside the Islamists. The two groups were once allies might soon be turning their guns on each other.

Residents of the three biggest towns in the north say the Islamist fighters seem to be elbowing aside the Tuareg nationalists and are stronger on the ground.

In the fabled city of Timbuktu, whose winding alleyways lined with mud homes fill with sand blown in from the Sahara, pictures of unveiled women have either been torn down or covered over with black paint, according to El Hadj Baba Haidara, a member of the Malian parliament for the city. The Islamists have also cut the signal for national TV broadcasts to the city because they consider the women not properly covered and don't approve of the music the station plays, Mr Haidara said.

"No one came come here and tell us how to practice Islam," Mr Haidara said. "Timbuktu has been Islamic since the 12th century and we have our own way of doing things."

Down the road from one of Timbuktu's mosques, whose wooden doors are decorated with metal crescents and stars, Islamists have made their base at a bank. A sign at the entrance says "Islamic Police" in Arabic and French. Residents have been given a phone number to report serious crimes and other emergencies, but wide-scale patrols haven't been deployed to enforce Sharia, at least not yet.

But punishments are being delivered.

Last Monday in the city of Gao, two men caught smoking hashish were given 30 lashes in front of the police station, according to Hama dada Toure, a teacher in Gao. One man who had allegedly beaten his pregnant wife was given 10 lashes and ordered to pay her.

Mr Toure said a flexible tree branch is used in the whippings, the blows delivered with less than full force. The Islamists make the person being punished say "Allahu Akbar. La ilaha illa Allah" - meaning "God is great. There is no God but God" - each time the branch strikes them.

The last to be punished that day in Gao were two men had been fighting. One man had been cut in the fight and the other was told that when the injured man recovered he would be able to inflict the exact same cut on his enemy.

In Kidal, one of the three major towns in Mali's north, residents say that the Islamists have banned traditional Tuareg festivities where drums are played all afternoon and into the night.

"Tuareg culture is done for here," mourned Jean Pierre Tita, a resident of the town. "It's Islamic culture that is going to take over now."

Mr Tita said the Islamists have been preaching on the streets, as well as in mosques and at funerals.

One of the groups that is imposing Sharia, Ansar Dine - Arabic for Supporters of Islam - was formed at the end of last year and joined the Tuareg rebel group in chasing government forces out of the north a month ago. The Tuareg rebels declared independence for north Mali, but Ansar Dine now says that it is against north Mali becoming independent.

Western diplomats in Bamako, the capital, say Ansar Dine has links with an even more hard-line militant Islamic group, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, which has been responsible for kidnappings of Europeans and attacks on government forces in Mali and beyond. Senior leaders from AQIM have been seen openly in towns in north Mali since Ansar Dine gained some control of them.

Diplomats say that fighters sometimes move between the two groups.

Islamist fighters from other countries have been descending on northern Mali in the chaotic aftermath of the military coup in the capital in March that deposed the president. The vast area has become a potential haven for terrorists in a part of the Sahara bristling with heavy weapons looted from Libya.

Witnesses in northern Mali and those who have fled to neighbouring Niger have said they have seen fighters from Algeria, Mauritania and Nigeria.

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http://www.thenational.ae/thenation...a-role-in-how-much-influence-iran-has-on-iraq

Gulf has a role in how much influence Iran has on Iraq
Hassan Hassan
May 7, 2012

In a recent talk in Bahrain about national security in the GCC, Dubai's police chief, Lt Gen Dhahi Khalfan, listed Iraq's subordination to Iran as one of the top five potential security threats to the Gulf.

It is not news that Iran's influence in Iraq is growing. But there is a misplaced assumption in the Gulf that because of sectarian tendencies and proximity, Iraq's political tilt towards Iran is inevitable and natural. In light of such assessments, the Gulf has been reluctant to expand diplomatic relations with Baghdad.

Hoshyar Zebari, the Iraqi foreign minister, told me in a recent interview that a "breakthrough" is being reached in relations with the Gulf. During meetings last Monday in Baghdad, he said, progress was made towards resolving outstanding disputes. Qatar, he said, pledged to consider resumption of diplomatic relations within the year. Saudi Arabia is likely to open its Arar border crossing to boost trade with Iraq. The remaining states already have diplomatic representation in Iraq.

But even if diplomatic breakthroughs are reached, the Gulf's outlook towards Iraq is still marred by distrust and suspicion (which has only deepened during the premiership of Nouri al Maliki, who lived in Iran for a decade). Saudi Arabia appointed a non-resident ambassador to Baghdad in February but refused (along with other Gulf states) to send top-level delegations to the Arab League summit there in March.

Yet there are considerable reasons for the GCC to move closer to Iraq than to push it away.

First is the potential downfall of the Syrian regime; when this happens, Iraq will need to reengage with the Gulf - not only because of the $2 billion (Dh 7.34 billion) in annual trade between Iraq and Syria, but because the post-Assad regime will likely be friendlier to the Gulf.

Then there is economics. Iraq is projected to become the second largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, surpassing Iran, by the end of this decade. If that happens, power dynamics will change and it will be difficult for Iran to exert influence in Iraq. Until that happens, Iraq needs its Gulf neighbours, who are well-positioned to invest in the country.

Trade between Iran and Iraq is higher than Iraq's trade with any Gulf state ($10 billion a year) but Iranian investment is much lower (just over half a billion dollars in 2009, and $200 million in 2010). The UAE, the only Gulf country that invests heavily in Iraq, topped the list of foreign investors there in 2009, at over $37 billion. That went up to $66 billion last year. It is past time for other GCC states to follow suit.

Iraqis complain that cheap and low-quality products from Iran flood their markets, making it difficult for Iraqi-made goods to compete. Iranian investment focuses on the construction and retail sectors in the Shia holy cities as part of Tehran's strategy of influence within Iraq.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity," says Afshin Molavi, a senior research fellow at the New America Foundation and a columnist for The National. "Their handling of their 'soft power' in Iraq is a case in point. Their poll numbers are dwindling, and not only among Sunnis, but also among Shia. They are increasingly seen as heavy-handed and interfering."

Finally, there's clerical rivalry. Iraqi Shia clergy are already resisting Iranian influence as the Najaf Hawza (the world's oldest learning centre for Shia) tries to reclaim its prominence, overshadowed by Qom's Hawza in Iran since 1979. Najaf and Qom deeply differ on the concept of clerical leadership. It is safe to say that the differences between Shia and Sunni Muslims over caliphate (on who should have succeeded the Prophet) are as deep as the differences among Shiites on imamate (who can lead Muslims).

Najaf is traditionally characterised as "hawza samitah", a quietist seminary - which restricts the role of clergy to catering to followers rather than politically leading them. By contrast, Qom believes a cleric can guide and lead followers until the coming of the hidden imam (the saviour of Muslims).

Because of this rivalry, Iran is reportedly preparing Qom-based Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, an Iraqi cleric who subscribes to the Khomeinist school, to lead Iraq's Shia after the death of Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the current supreme leader of Najaf's hawza. In his official visit to Iran last month, Mr Al Maliki met with Mr Shahroudi.

To be sure, sectarian affinities play a significant role in shaping Iraqi politics. The reasons, however, must be understood in context. For Iraqi Shiites, the wounds of fighting a devastating war against Iran are still fresh; the physical and psychological pain still haunts thousands of men and women. The eruption of civil strife after the 2003 US invasion helped link the Sunnis to the Baathist regime and the Shiites to the "Safawi", sympathisers with the Iranians (from the Iranian "Safavid dynasty" that prosecuted Sunnis). Add to that the rising sectarian sentiments in the region after the Arab Spring, in the form of provocations by extremists on both sides.

But these sentiments can be rendered temporary if sectarianism is addressed and relations deepened. "No one can ignore the sectarian factor but Iraq is not, and will not be, subordinate to Iran," Mr Zebari said.

Iraq is not an Iranian "cat's paw", as some have suggested. The Gulf must not view Iraq only through its ties to Iran. The Gulf has a choice: continue to alienate Iraq and push it into the Iranian orbit, or begin a process of engagement. That choice will determine whether Iraq becomes the security threat many are fearing.

hhassan@thenational.ae

On Twitter: @hhassan140

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http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/World...ops+in+Somalia/-/688340/1400596/-/10mubfoz/-/

NGO condemns deployment of S. Leone troops in Somalia

Posted Monday, May 7 2012 at 00:00

A Freetown-based NGO, Pan-African Community Movement, has condemned the pending deployment of Sierra Leonean troops in Somalia. Over 800 Sierra Leonean troops are at an advanced stage of preparation for deployment in restive southern Somalia as part of the UN-backed African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom).

A few weeks back the Somali militant group, al–Shabaab, warned the Sierra Leone government against the deployment, sparking heated media debate about the rationale behind the government`s decision to deploy. PACM becomes the first organised group to have issued a statement on Saturday, calling the government’s decision “wrong” and stressed that the problem in Somalia cannot be resolved by military means.

“The deployment of Sierra Leonean soldiers in Somalia is wrong,” the organisation said in a statement. It added that it could only be seen by the Somali people as “an attempt by the rulers of Sierra Leone to be part of the greater conspiracy, sponsored by western imperialist forces to dominate and further the long suffering of the people of Somalia and deepen the conflict.”

The deployment, the group further argued, might also endanger Sierra Leonean citizens, as al-Shabaab has already threatened to do. The group insists it is not opposed to the involvement of Sierra Leonean soldiers in another African problem, but that it believed that in this case the search for solution was been driven “by outside forces”.

A number of foreign nations, including UK have been involved in the preparation of the Sierra Leonean contingent.

Hummm.....

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http://www.opednews.com/articles/Pentagon-Wars-Used-To-Tra-by-Rick-Rozoff-120506-174.html

May 6, 2012 at 09:19:47
Pentagon: Wars Used To Train Global NATO Expeditionary Force
By Rick Rozoff (about the author)

In the past seventeen years millions of troops from approximately 60 nations have served under NATO command in wars and post-war zones in several countries outside of the military bloc's territory.

The NATO-led Stabilization Force in Bosnia had 60,000 troops in 1995, the Kosovo Force 50,000 in 1999, the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan 140,000 at peak strength and smaller detachments have served with Operation Unified Protector in Libya, Operation Allied Harmony in Macedonia, Operation Active Endeavor in the Mediterranean Sea and Operation Ocean Shield in the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean.

With rotations, the number of troops serving under the alliance's command in Southeastern Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East is likely in the millions. In 2010 the American commander of the Transit Center at Manas in Kyrgyzstan said that 55,000 NATO troops had been airlifted through that base to Afghanistan in May of that year, an annual rate of two-thirds of a million at a time when an estimated 140,000 of 152,000 foreign troops in Afghanistan were serving under NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF).

NATO forces have also been stationed in Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan over the past decade.

Alliance naval forces conducted a six-month blockade of Libya last year and have participated in Active Endeavor since 2011 and in Ocean Shield (and its predecessor, Operation Allied Protector) since 2009.

Standing NATO Maritime Group 1 and Standing NATO Maritime Group 2 have participated in NATO operations and war games throughout the Mediterranean, have circumnavigated the African continent, sailed down the Atlantic coast of Canada and the U.S. and into the Caribbean Sea, held exercises in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Guinea, participated in NATO drills in the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea, and planned to cross the strategic Strait of Malacca to the South China Sea in 2009.

NATO has had from 1995 to the present day the opportunity to build an integrated international military force for ground, naval and air operations in current and future operations.

Last week NATO's top military commander (Supreme Allied Commander Europe), U.S. Admiral James Stavridis, said the bloc has "140,000 troops around the world" engaged in ongoing operations in South and Central Asia, the Balkans, off the Horn of Africa and, residually, in North Africa.

Stavridis' second-in-command at his other post, as chief of United States European Command - EUCOM's deputy commander Navy Vice Admiral Charles Martoglio - stated the following to the Pentagon's news agency on May 4:

"We have been alongside NATO, or NATO has been alongside us, for 10 years in Afghanistan and Iraq, We have a combat edge that has been honed by 10 years of working together in very challenging circumstances."

Although not a formal NATO operation, the war and occupation in Iraq received assistance from the alliance beforehand - deployment of Patriot interceptor missiles and AWACS surveillance aircraft to Turkey - and afterward, with NATO supporting the Multi-National Force - Iraq and operations in the Polish-led South Central zone and running the NATO Training Mission-Iraq. The first commander of the latter was current Central Intelligence Agency director and former ISAF commander David Petraeus.

Three-quarters of current NATO members states supplied troops for the Iraq war, all except for Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Greece, Luxembourg and Turkey, which in most instances compensated by increasing their troop commitments to NATO in Afghanistan. Over a dozen NATO partnership program nations also sent troops to Iraq.

EUCOM's deputy commander elaborated on his above-cited comments in stating:

"So as we come out of Iraq and Afghanistan, how do we sustain that combat edge over time, particularly when everybody's budgets are being significantly constrained? Our job here [in Europe] is to sustain the strategic partnership, the NATO alliance -- that most successful coalition in history -- across these difficult financial times."

Navy Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, EUCOM's deputy commander for plans, policy and strategy, spoke in a similar vein:

"The question is how do we preserve all the investment that's been made over the last eight to 10 years -- an investment of not just money, but blood and sweat, working together in both Iraq and Afghanistan?"

Admiral Martoglio placed emphasis of continuing exercises and other training with nations that have provided troops for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to consolidate integration and operational cohesiveness for future military actions. According to American Forces Press Service, he particularly stressed the need "to take new strategic partnerships forged with Eastern European nations to the next level, and to maintain other ISAF contributors' high-end capabilities."

In his own words, "We have to look toward ensuring interoperability of those forces and routinely training together so that if we have to conduct high-end operations, we have the ability to work together from a technical perspective, and the skills to work together from a training perspective."

For high-end operations read wars.

As the U.S. moves into new bases in the Asia-Pacific region and deploys more warships and warplanes to the Middle East, it can count on NATO to police Europe, the Mediterranean - North Africa and the western Middle East - the Horn of Africa and the South Caucasus on its behalf.

NATO has secured a mobile, integrated, combat-tested global expeditionary force for the West.

Rick Rozoff has been involved in anti-war and anti-interventionist work in various capacities for forty years. He lives in Chicago, Illinois. Is the manager of the Stop NATO international email list at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/stopnato/

Hummmm.....

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http://www.arirang.co.kr/News/News_View.asp?nseq=129314&code=Ne2&category=2

U.S. Expert Hints Possibilty of N. Korea Purposely Aborting Rocket Before Failure

A new study of North Korea's recent rocket launch attempt shows that the North's space agency could have purposely destroyed the rocket when they knew it was going to fail.

In an article on U.S.-based intelligence Web site 38 North, U.S. missile defense expert Doctor David Wright suggests that it was possible that the launch was remotely aborted by North Korea's command center.

Wright stressed that it is impossible to know what exactly happened but said the North could have pulled the plug on the flight at the first stage of the launch when a problem was detected.

MAY 07, 2012

Reporter : chkim@arirang.co.kr

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http://38north.org/2012/05/dwright050412/

Post Published: 04 May 2012
Questions about the Unha-3 Failure
By David Wright

Three weeks have passed since the North Korean failed satellite launch and we’re still waiting for more information to accurately assess what happened. The United States, as well as Japan and South Korea, deployed many sensors in the region to watch the launch, and should have gathered very good data on what happened. However, it is unclear how much of that information will ever be made public, since countries tend to be very careful about releasing anything that might provide information about “sources and methods” of gathering information. However, I expect the basics of the event will eventually come out.

In the meantime, here is what we know:

North Koreans called this launcher the Unha-3 (Korean for “Galaxy-3”). Whereas US officials referred to it as a Taepodong-2 missile, since it appeared to be a derivative of a missile US intelligence first saw near the Korean city of Taepodong in early 1994.

North Korea said the three-stage rocket was intended to launch a small (100-kilogram) satellite, the Kwangmyongsong-3, into polar orbit. The satellite reportedly carried a camera to send back photographs of the earth, but the main goal was simply to try to place it into orbit and gain experience operating and communicating with it.

Photographs of the Unha-3 show that it was very similar to the Unha-2 that North Korea used in its failed April 2009 satellite launch. One noticeable difference is that it appears the Unha-3 carried more fuel in its third stage. This was to be expected, since the Unha-3 was launched from the new Sohae Satellite Launching Station (commonly referred to as “Tongchang-ri”) on the west coast to the south, rather than from the Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground (“Musudan-ri”) on the east coast to the east (as the Unha-2 was), to avoid flying over Japan early in flight (see figure 1). This change in flight path is significant because rockets launched east gain speed naturally from the rotation of the earth. Therefore, the extra fuel aboard the Unha-3 was needed to compensate for this difference when fired south.

Figure 1: Comparison of Unha-2 (2009) and Unha-3 (2012) Flight Paths

The Unha-3 launch took place on Friday, April 13, 2012 at 7:39 am Korean Standard Time (KST) (Thursday at 6:39 pm EDT) and failed shortly thereafter, with the rocket splashing down after traveling less than 400 km.

What May Have Happened

The engines of the first two stages of this rocket burn for about two minutes each, so knowing the exact time at which the failure occurred can help us understand which stages were involved and may give clues as to the cause. As of now, this information has not been released. As an alternative, we can try to glean this information from the reported splashdown zones.

From reports in the past three weeks, the two most credible splashdown locations are these:

A. In a statement shortly following the launch, an official US report gave the splashdown point as 165 km west of Seoul. In particular, North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and US Northern Command stated that: “Initial indications are that the first stage of the missile fell into the sea 165 km west of Seoul, South Korea. The remaining stages were assessed to have failed and no debris fell on land. At no time were the missile or the resultant debris a threat.” This location would be roughly 300 km from the launch site.

B. However, South Korean reports have said that the splashdown occurred 200 km west of the South Korean city of Gunsan. This location would be about 400 km from the launch site and just short of the intended splashdown zone for the first stage announced by North Korea before the launch.

Based on these two locations, we can conclude several things:

1. Several media have reported that sensors had detected an abnormal “flare” around the rocket at 81 seconds after launch. However, whatever happened at that point, which is unclear from the information publicly available, the rocket must have continued accelerating well past that point. If the engines had stopped at 81 seconds, then the debris would have fallen very close to the launch site—within 100 km—and therefore well short of either points A or B.
2. If the stages fell at point A, that is consistent with the first stage burning roughly as intended for about 104 seconds. In this case, the failure would have occurred during the operation of the first stage and before staging took place. If it failed at that point, all three stages would have fallen into the Yellow Sea about 300 km from the launch site after reaching a maximum altitude of about 120 km, as some reports have stated. Atmospheric forces as the rocket fell would have broken it into pieces.
3. It is also possible that problems with the first stage could have caused the engines to burn with less than the intended thrust, so that the first stage could have burned to completion but not gone as far as was expected. If the staging process did not work correctly, all three stages could have fallen around point A.
4. If instead the stages fell at point B, that would suggest that the first stage worked essentially as intended, but that ignition and separation of the second stage did not occur properly so that it fell with first stage into the sea at this location. A study by Chang Young Keun, a professor at Korea Aerospace University, argued that staging was the problem. However, his analysis reportedly assumes a 10-second delay between first-stage burnout and second-stage ignition, which is unlikely for technical reasons and therefore raises questions about his analysis.

It is also possible that relatively large objects fell at both points A and B. In this case:

1. One possible scenario is that a large object fell off the rocket about 104 seconds after launch, which would have splashed down at point A, while the rest of the rocket continued to burn. A staging failure could have then caused the rest of the rocket to fall at point B. Some reports suggest that either the shroud covering the front sections of the launcher, or even the third stage, may have broken off during first stage burn. However, it is not clear what might have caused this; one suggestion is that it resulted from the rocket passing Mach 1 or experiencing peak atmospheric forces (“Max Q”), but those things generally happen much earlier in flight.
2. A second possibility is that the first stage burned to completion, but with low thrust, and fell at point A, and that the second stage ignited and burned briefly before failing, which carried it to point B. This option assumes that the staging was successful. If this was the case, it means there would have been problems with both of the first two stages.

It is also possible that the launch was aborted by the command center before mechanical failure could fully set in. North Korea reportedly announced prior to the launch that the rocket was equipped with a flight termination system that would allow operators to shut down the engines manually if the ground station detected a problem. It is not clear whether this is the case. However, it is possible that if, as some sources have suggested, the first stage burned to completion but there was a problem with staging, that the North may have aborted the flight at that point.

What Would Help to Understand the Launch Failure

Four pieces of information that would help pin down what may have happened are:

1. Exactly how long after launch did the failure take place? This would help clarify whether the failure was during the operation of the first stage or involved the staging process and the second stage.
2. Where did the rocket debris splash down, and what splashed down at those points? Knowing, for example, whether the first stage traveled 300 or 400 km, or whether any part of the rocket traveled 400 km, would shed light on what actually malfunctioned.
3. Were there any irregularities in the path of the rocket or the operation of the engines while the engines were burning? The type of abnormality observed may help identify the cause of the problem. For example, if the launcher was seen to be deviating from the intended trajectory, it is possible that it was destroyed intentionally.
4. Was there an explosion that destroyed the rocket, or did it simply lose power?

What North Korea May Have Learned from the Launch

North Korea clearly did not learn anything about operating a satellite from this launch, since it did not succeed in placing the Kwangmyongsong-3 into orbit. Moreover, after several attempts, it still has not learned much about using the third stage to launch a satellite into orbit. The closest it has gotten to achieving this was its 1998 launch, when the third stage ignited and separated, but apparently then became unstable and broke apart.

Most countries launching rockets put sensors on all the major systems that constantly send back information about the status of the rocket during launch. If something goes wrong, sorting through this data can help experts determine what happened, like looking at an airplane’s black box. We don’t know how much “telemetry,” as this is called, the Unha-3 was designed to send back. Without it, Pyongyang would have little chance of understanding in detail what went wrong.

However, assuming the Unha-3 was sending at least some telemetry, how much could the North Koreans have learned? The first two stages apparently worked in the 2009 launch, suggesting that the rocket’s systems work in principle, but have reliability problems. The telemetry from the Unha-3 may tell them which system failed this time, and might give them enough information to reduce the likelihood of it happening again to that particular system. But the failure happened so early in flight that they would have gotten little or no information about the performance of several key systems in the upper stages.

On the other hand, it is worth keeping in mind that having a string of failures is not unusual for countries developing a launch capability, so it is difficult to draw strong conclusions from this failure about the overall state of North Korea’s rocket development program. For example, both of South Korea’s attempts (in 2009 and 2010) to launch a satellite failed, and the first stage of its launcher is built by Russia, which has a lot of experience with this technology.

However, North Korea’s successive failures coupled with other facts, like the lack of flight testing and questions about how reliant North Korea’s program is on foreign technology, does suggest a program that is less advanced than is widely assumed.

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http://38north.org/2012/05/nhansen050412/

Post Published: 04 May 2012
North Korea’s New Long-Range Missile: Fact or Fiction?
By Nick Hansen

Introduction

North Korea’s unveiling of a new long-range missile in its April 15 parade, designated the KN-08 by Western experts, has caused a great deal of speculation. Some analysts have even concluded that the weapons on display were not real.[1] The paraded missiles are certainly not weapons ready for launching. But I believe they are probably part of a developmental process that will culminate in either a new North Korean intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) or, depending on the weight of its warhead, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Moreover, the missile’s transporter-erector-launcher (TEL), probably manufactured in China in 2010, was purchased and extensively modified specifically for the new missile, not just for show.

The KN-08 Missile

The big surprise coming out of the centennial parade was the display of six road mobile missiles, designated the KN-08. These missiles were unlike any of the DPRK’s three other mobile ballistic missile systems. Moreover, they did not resemble the recently launched Unha rocket or the reported large rocket seen at a North Korean research and development facility a week earlier.

The April 15 parade was a good opportunity not only to observe the new missile, but also to gain accurate measurements of its dimensions, critical to any overall analysis. Aside from photos of the new weapon taken by the Western media (figure 1), the parade allowed the missiles and their TELs to be observed by commercial satellite photography (figure 2). While the camouflage paint on the

KN-08 missiles makes it difficult to measure the missile’s diameter, the dimensions of the TEL, along with the ground photos of the missile, can be used to get a fairly accurate assessment.

Figure 1. The KN-08 missile displayed in the parade.

(Photo: Reuters/KCNA)

Figure 2. KN-08 and Musudan missiles on the parade route prior to entry into Kim Il Sung Square.

Note, the camouflage paint on the KN-08 missiles and TELs compared with the white painted Musudan missiles. (Image © 2012 DigitalGlobe, Inc.)

Based on ground photography and the satellite image, the measurements of the new missiles dimensions are as follows:

While some have concluded that the KN-08 missiles that were on display were “mock-ups,” my conclusion is that they are instead, part of a developmental process intended to produce operational weapons using proven high-energy liquid fueled SS-N-6 technology obtained from Russia in the late 1990s.

My conclusions are based on the following observations:

* The first stage is approximately the same length and diameter as North Korea’s Musudan (BM-25) rocket (minus the warhead), first revealed to the West in October 2010 during celebrations for the 65th anniversary of the Korean Workers’ Party. The DPRK is believed to have modified the SS-N-6, by adding about one meter to the fuel and oxidizer tanks in order to increase the Musudan’s range. This increased the missile’s length to 9.65 meters, which is close to the measured length of the first stage of the KN-08.

* The KN-08’s second stage is a bit of a mystery. No rocket engine that measures 4.5 meters long and 1.5 meters in diameter has been identified in the DPRK to date. However, the fact that the second stage is 1.5 meters in diameter and appears to use liquid fuel means that the KN-08 engine may also have been derived from the SS-N-6.

* The missile’s third stage is 1.25 meters in diameter and 2.75 meters in length, very close to the size of the Unha rocket’s third stage that uses the vernier engines from the SS-N-6. While the North has not had much success testing this stage, a similar stage for the Iranian Safir Space Launch Vehicle has worked three times to date.

While some analysts have also concluded that the missile’s warhead—about 2.5 meters long and tapered—is fake, it actually resembles that found on the Nodong-A medium range missile already fielded by the North. Even if it is not an operational weapon, the real warhead will likely be about the same length and diameter. This conclusion is based on the dimensions and shape of the transporter’s erection arms and its front brush guard. The erection arms run parallel with the missile’s sides and are attached to the clamp that holds the missile in place when traveling. The brush guard provides protection to the warhead during off-road operations and outlines its shape.

There are other considerations that point to the displayed missiles as part of a process to develop a new weapon. For example, the serial numbers painted on the side of each missile indicate that the missiles come from two production series. The small differences in those missiles indicate that flaws may have been discovered and improvements made, indicating an ongoing process of development. Also, the KN-08 TEL was real and clearly specifically designed for this missile, representing a significant investment of time, effort, and money. Finally, while analysts who believe the missile was fake have argued that the KN-08, if liquid fueled, would not suitable for a land mobile launcher, they neglect the fact that the North already has an operational liquid fueled missile: the Nodong-B, which is 17 meters long, only a few meters shorter than the KN-08.

In summary, the KN-08 missiles observed in the April 15th parade may, in fact, be part of a developmental process for fielding a new three stage liquid fueled missile with a longer-range than the Musudan. Whether it will eventually be able to achieve the 10,000 km range of an ICBM is to be seen. That will depend, not just on further developments in DPRK missile technology, but also on the weight of the warhead that it will carry and, particular, whether or not the North will be able to reduce that weight through miniaturization of a nuclear payload.

The KN-08 TEL

The KN-08’s TEL is an 8 axle short cab version of the Chinese WS 51200 vehicle, probably purchased about the time it was first advertized in 2010, and produced by the Hubei Sanjiang Space Wanshan Special Vehicle Co. Ltd. Interestingly, the company also controls a joint venture with the Minsk Plant of Wheeled Carriers in Belarus, which produces the MAZ series of heavy vehicles. The Chinese vehicle has a lot in common with that vehicle, used as the TEL for a Russian ICBM, the SS-27 Topal, first deployed in 2006.

The WS 51200, the largest vehicle of its type produced in China, has yet to appear as a TEL for a Chinese missile. The vehicle comes in two versions—identified as short and long cabs—that have slightly different wheel base patterns. The DPRK uses the short cab version for the KN-08.[2]

The following table gives the relevant data for the WS 51200 and for comparison its counterpart that is used as the basis for the Russian ICBM.

With a load weight of 122 tons, this vehicle is oversized for the KN-08 missile and the erection and launching equipment, which are estimated to weigh only 45 to 50 tons. It is unknown how many of these vehicles the DPRK purchased beyond the six shown in the parade.

Figure 3. Advertisement for the WS 51200 super heavy load vehicle.

Conversion of this vehicle into a missile TEL required extensive modifications that probably were undertaken by the DPRK after purchase, which North Korea has done in the past. For example, the North acquired an unknown number of demilitarized Soviet SS-20 IRBM TELs from Belarus/Russia for use with the Musudan in the early 2000s. The North Koreans installed their own erection and launching equipment, although it is obvious the vehicle was not a perfect fit. The Musudan’s 12 meter length only takes up about three quarters of the 17 meter TEL. Plus the missile is offset 0.6 meters to the passenger side of the centerline, probably to accommodate the erection hydraulics. With the bare bones Chinese vehicle acquired for the KN-08, the DPRK was able to design equipment to better fit the new missile system, which they did.

The TEL shown in figure 4 was designed to carry a missile of the KN-08’s size and shape. The figure shows some of the larger additions needed to launch the KN-08 missile. By far, the biggest modification is the installation of the hydraulics required to raise and lower the weapon. The two visible parts of this equipment are the arms that run alongside the missile (the rear arrow) and the holding down mechanism shown in the red box on the top of the missile. At the end of the missile and attached to these arms is the launch platform (not shown). This entire system raises the missile to the vertical position where it rests vertically on the launch platform, then releases the missile and retracts back on the vehicle in a horizontal position.

There are a number of other modifications as well. For example, the storage boxes on both sides of the vehicle (the long red rectangular box in the picture) will probably be used during transit to store equipment needed to support the troops, as well as to operate and maintain the system when it is deployed. A communications mount has been added on the passenger side roof of the cab for an antenna that will provide command and control of the missile system. Finally, there are almost certainly other subsystems not visible in the ground photos that had to be added to the vehicle to turn it into a mobile missile launcher.

Figure 4. Side view of the KN-08 TEL showing some of the modifications required converting the WS 51200 into TEL.

(Photo: AP)

In summary, North Korea’s purchase and modification of these vehicles to serve as TELs for the KN-08 indicates a significant commitment of resources that would not have been made if the program was fake. That reality, combined with analysis of the missile itself—as well as available information on other North Korean rocket programs based on the former Soviet SS-N-6—leads me to conclude that the KN-08 is intended to serve as the basis for a future intermediate or intercontinental range missile that could carry a nuclear warhead.
[1] Markus Schiller and Robert H. Schmucker, “A Dog and Pony Show, North Korea’s New ICBM,” April 18, 2012, http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com/files/2012/04/KN-08_Analysis_Schiller_Schmucker.pdf.

[2] Analysis by Frank Pabian, Stanford University, Center International Studies and Cooperation, April 23, 2012.

Syria Moving Scuds to Israel, Turkey Borders – Report
Jordanian news site says western spy satellites show hundreds of Scud launchers moving south and north.

Click to expand...

This puts me right over the edge. That and the Mexican violence. Sounds as though they're one baby step away from cutting hearts out of living people and eating them.

And Hollande winning in Europe. I can only assume that hastens the collapse of the EU.

For links see article source....
Posted for fair use....
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/national/national-news/2012/05/06/340167/Govt-reluctant.htm

Updated Sunday, May 6, 2012 1:47 pm TWN, The China Post news staff

Gov't reluctant to accept high price of F-16 upgrades

The United States has offered a US$5.3 billion package for upgrading Taiwan's F-16 fighter jets, but the military is reluctant to accept such an expensive deal, a legislator revealed yesterday.

A letter of acceptance (LOA) from the U.S. government arrived Wednesday, but the defense ministry has yet to decide whether to sign it or conduct further negotiations over the package, said Legislator Lin Yu-fang of the ruling Kuomintang.

Lin described the package to upgrade Taiwan's F-16A/B fleet as coming with a “shockingly high” price tag, even more expensive than buying new F-16C/D jets.

The U.S. government is offering to upgrade the F-16A/B planes with Link 16 data exchange systems, ASEA radar systems, and the JHMCS helmet-mounted aiming system with AIM-9X short-range air-to-air missiles, Lin said.

Lin noted that the AESA radar system may have to be redesigned for the upgrade, which would require a large sum of money.

Not even F-16C/D jets are equipped with the system, Lin said, adding that outside the United States, only the United Arab Emirates has adopted AESA on its F-16E/F fleet, Lin said.

The United Evening News cited military officials as saying that AESA is a standard system for the U.S. F-35 and F-22 aircraft.

If it were put onto F-16A/B, it would require the United States to develop a unique version for Taiwan, the officials said.

It would be like what the U.S. government has done in the past when selling Taiwan a unique version of its reconnaissance planes, with a completely redesigned electrical system and with changes to the look of the aircraft, the officials said.

The newspaper said the deal would probably be the most expensive upgrade for F-16A/B fighter jets ever.

The military has already reported the deal to the legislative defense committee, but Lin said it seems unaffordable judging from Taiwan's current financial strength.

The military is unlikely to sign the LOA and will conduct further negotiations on individual items of the offerings, Lin said.

Taiwan has been asking to buy F-16C/D jets, but the U.S. government has only agreed to upgrade its F-16A/B fleet.

In 2007 and 2008, the government allocated initial budgets of NT$16 billion and NT$20 billion toward its attempt to acquire F-16C/Ds.

Vice Defense Minister Yang Nien-chu told lawmakers last week that Taiwan may give up on F-16C/D jets if they are no better than upgraded F-16A/B models.

Military spokesman Lo Shao-ho elaborated on Yang's remarks by saying that as Taiwan is already seeking to upgrade its F-16A/B fleet, it would not look at F-16C/D planes if it wanted to buy new jet fighters in the future.

Be Well said:

This puts me right over the edge. That and the Mexican violence. Sounds as though they're one baby step away from cutting hearts out of living people and eating them.

And Hollande winning in Europe. I can only assume that hastens the collapse of the EU.

Click to expand...

Did you happen to notice the piece on US activities in Honduras?

For links see article source....
Posted for fair use....
http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...-uncertainty/2012/05/06/gIQAbLKc6T_story.html

Markets could stumble as Greece’s split vote, new French president add to uncertainty
By Associated Press, Updated: Sunday, May 6, 5:15 PM
Comments 1

WASHINGTON — Financial markets will likely stumble this week after elections in Greece and France cast a pall of uncertainty over Europe’s efforts to solve its debt crisis.

On Sunday night, the euro plunged to $1.2988, a nearly five-month low.

Greek voters on Sunday voted mostly for two parties that want to change the nation’s international bailout terms or even overturn its rescue deal, according to early projections of the election results. Greece won’t have a government until parties with divergent worldviews can form a governing coalition.

Greek voters are reacting against spending cuts imposed on the recession-weary nation by the international lenders whose bailouts are keeping it afloat.

Also Sunday, French President Nicolas Sarkozy lost in a runoff election to Socialist candidate Francois Hollande. Hollande has criticized France’s austerity program and wants to encourage growth by boosting government spending.

Sunday’s votes raise serious doubts about whether voters will swallow the current plan of international bailouts coupled with severe cost-cutting, economists said.

Many believe the austerity program is necessary to keep bond investors from panicking about the possibility that more European nations will default or require bailouts. But a growing number, like Hollande, say the cuts have been too much, too fast. They say the region’s economy can’t return to growth unless governments stop tightening the fiscal noose and start spending again to create demand.

Uncertainty about the path forward in Europe may mean a return to extreme market volatility after several months of relative calm.

Here’s a look at what Sunday’s elections might mean for global investors.

GREECE

— How much does it matter?

A great deal. The financial mess in Greece has rocked financial markets for years. To stay afloat, Greece’s government depends on loans from international creditors, and it must meet strict targets on cuts if it wants to keep receiving money. But Greek voters elevated two parties that rejected terms of the bailout. If Greek leaders refuse to stick to terms of the bailout deal, the International Monetary Fund may pull the plug on supplying funds.

“Given the degree of uncertainty that is going to enter Greek policymaking after these elections, I suspect the prospects of Greece being able to undertake serious reforms has been reduced even further,” said Cornell University professor Eswar Prasad.

— Best-case outcome: Greek parties build a governing majority that negotiates successfully with international lenders. Greece’s lenders will dial back some demands for austerity to quell political unrest and allow the Greek economy to recover. Greece will continue to use the euro.

— Worst-case outcome: Greece’s new leaders are unable to find common ground with international lenders. The IMF pulls the plug on future bailouts and richer European nations refuse to step in. Greece defaults and leaves the euro currency or is expelled. There is panic among holders of bonds issued by other financially troubled countries, creating a cascade of defaults and requiring more bailouts.

— Market outlook: It could take weeks for Greece’s political parties to form a governing coalition, experts said. And the country is expected to take yet more austerity measures in June. Parliamentary developments will likely drive trading in the coming weeks, especially if investors begin to fear that a new government is unstable and the bailout program at risk.

Yet even if Greece defaults and leaves the euro, the impact on international markets might be small, said Jacob Kirkegaard, a research fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Bond investors already know that Greece is in a fiscal mess, and have marked down the value of their holdings, he noted.

“It wouldn’t be without waves, but it would be a manageable situation,” Kirkegaard said.

FRANCE:

— How much does it matter?

Experts disagree. Some say Hollande emphasized his differences with Sarkozy for political reasons, but will pursue a similar path of budget cuts once he takes power. Others believe Hollande’s strong rebuke of the austerity plan could change the minds of European politicians currently focused on deep cuts to spending on social welfare programs and worker benefits.

— Best-case outcome: Hollande teams up effectively with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has led the crisis response with Sarkozy. His proposal to soften austerity measures is embraced by France’s parliament and bond investors, allowing France to balance its budget on a slower schedule. His view that government spending will combat the recession proves accurate, other nations follow suit and Europe returns to growth in the next couple of years.

— Worst-case outcome: In parliamentary elections next month, French voters elevate far-left politicians. To assuage them, Hollande boosts spending sharply and rejects austerity and other reforms aimed at stabilizing France’s debt load. France falls deeper into debt and faces further downgrades by credit rating agencies. Renewed fears about a French default kick off a fresh wave of crisis fears, destabilizing global markets.

— Market outlook: Hollande’s ability to reshape French and European policy hinges heavily on the upcoming parliamentary elections. Markets are unlikely to react strongly to his election until they have a clearer sense of what Hollande will be able to do, experts said. But traders will want an answer soon, said Cornell’s Prasad, who studies trade policy.

“I don’t think markets have the patience to string this out until summer,” he said. If France’s finances appear less stable, traders would have one more reason to abandon stocks and other risky investments.

___

Daniel Wagner can be reached at www.twitter.com/wagnerreports.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

Housecarl said:

Did you happen to notice the piece on US activities in Honduras?

Click to expand...

Missed that one. Will check it. The Greek and French elections are sickening. Seriously, makes me want to puke.

Be Well said:

Missed that one. Will check it. The Greek and French elections are sickening. Seriously, makes me want to puke.

Click to expand...

Yeah, the epic fail being set up is going to make the current Greek situation seem as a good thing.

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use....
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/07/france-election-idUSL5E8G6ASK20120507

Short honeymoon for Hollande after French election win

Sun May 6, 2012 8:49pm EDT

* Socialist victory comes at crucial time for Europe

* Hollande wins 51.7 pct to 48.3 pct victory over Sarkozy

* Hollande urges growth measures to temper austerity

* Greek election bombshell overshadows French celebration

By Catherine Bremer

PARIS, May 7 (Reuters) - A victorious Francois Hollande faces a short honeymoon after his election as France's first left-wing president in 17 years, with financial markets eager for clear signals on his policies and how hard he plans to push back against German-led austerity.

The moderate Socialist beat conservative Nicolas Sarkozy with 51.7 percent of Sunday's runoff vote after a bruising campaign dominated by the same anger over economic crisis that has felled 10 other European leaders since late 2009.

While jubilant left-wing voters partied into the early hours of Monday in central Paris, Hollande admitted that for him, the festivities would have to be short-lived.

"There is a lot of joy and pride but also apprehension at taking on this responsibility at a difficult time for the country and for Europe," he said.

After delivering a victory speech in his rural base of Tulle in central France, he flew to Paris and addressed tens of thousands of supporters in historic Bastille square.

The new president is expected to be sworn in on May 15. As fears about the euro zone's debt crisis resurface following an inconclusive election in Greece, Hollande will travel to Berlin shortly thereafter to challenge Germany's focus on austerity policies and press new ideas for stimulating growth.

"In every capital, beyond the heads of state and government, there are people who have found hope thanks to us, who are looking to us and want to put an end to austerity," he declared.

The left reclaimed Bastille square where revellers danced the night away in 1981 when Francois Mitterrand became the Socialist Party's first directly elected president. Three decades later, a new generation of left-wing voters waved red flags and some carried roses, the party emblem.

Hollande is expected to include some trusted old hands in his government like Mitterrand's former prime minister Laurent Fabius but add many young politicians and women.

His economic team, led by centre-left former finance minister Michel Sapin, includes politicians, industry leaders and public officials seen as market-friendly.

Hollande must quickly outline his domestic plans, likely to centre around a major tax reform, and revise over-optimistic growth targets which threaten France's deficit-cutting goals.

His plans to tweak a reform that raised the retirement age to 62 and increase the minimum wage are also rattling investors who fear France could drift away from the club of sound northern European borrowers and towards the debt-laden periphery.

"Hollande's victory has already been priced in by markets, however his promises made during the campaign have not been priced in, so there is risk on the downside if he stands his ground when he announces a first set of measures," said fund manager Christian Jimenez at Diamant Bleu Gestion in Paris.

"There's a clear need to boost economic growth across Europe, but the debate is on how to achieve that without spooking investors."

LEFT WELL PLACED FOR PARLIAMENT

Sarkozy, punished for his failure to rein in 10-percent unemployment and for his brash personal style, conceded defeat within 20 minutes of polls closing on Sunday, telling supporters he had wished Hollande good luck in such trying times.

"I bear the full responsibility for this defeat," Sarkozy said, indicating he would withdraw from frontline politics.

In Greece, mainstream parties were hammered in a parliamentary election that seemed set to leave supporters of an IMF/EU bailout without a majority, raising doubts about Athens' future in the euro zone.

The euro fell in early trading in Asia on the Greek shock, with anti-austerity parties of the radical left and right winning almost half the votes.

Hollande's clear win should give the self-styled "Mr Normal" the momentum to press German Chancellor Angela Merkel to accept a policy shift towards fostering growth in Europe to balance the austerity that has fuelled anger across southern Europe.

Merkel, who had openly favoured fellow conservative Sarkozy, telephoned to congratulate Hollande and invited him to Berlin after his inauguration. The vote ended the "Merkozy" duo that led Europe through crisis and ushers in an untested partnership.

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said: "We will now work together on a growth pact for Europe, that delivers more growth through more competitiveness."

Opinion polls taken on Sunday showed the left strongly placed to win a majority in parliamentary elections next month, especially since the anti-immigration National Front is set to split the right-wing vote and hurt Sarkozy's UMP party.

If they win that two-round election on June 10 and 17, the Socialists would hold more levers of power than ever before, with the presidency, both houses of parliament, nearly all regions, and two-thirds of French towns in their hands.

Hollande led the presidential race from start to finish, outlining a comprehensive programme in January based on raising taxes, especially on high earners, to finance spending priorities and rein in the public deficit to zero by 2017.

He benefited from public distaste for the incumbent's abrasive style as well as anger about economic gloom that has swept aside leaders from Dublin to Lisbon.

Sarkozy launched his campaign late and swerved hard to the right between the two rounds of voting as he tried to win back low-income voters who ditched him for the radical left and the far right on the first ballot.

He barely dented Hollande's lead, however, and also failed to land a knockout punch in their only television debate.

In two further blows in the last days of the race, far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who won 17.9 percent in the first round, and centrist Francois Bayrou, who polled 9.1 percent, refused to endorse the conservative president.

Sarkozy allies consoled themselves that the margin of defeat could have been worse, preserving their parliamentary election hopes. "People were talking about an anti-Sarkozy tsunami," Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said. "That's not what happened."

Related News

* Short honeymoon for Hollande after French election win
8:51pm EDT
* Victorious French left reclaims the Bastille
7:29pm EDT
* For "Mr. Normal" Hollande, it's bye-bye to bling
5:57pm EDT
* France's Sarkozy headed for election defeat
Sat, May 5 2012
* Hollande favorite as French prepare for Sunday vote
Sat, May 5 2012

Analysis & Opinion

* What happened to ‘Yes we can’?
* What happens if Hollande wins?

Related Topics

* Bonds News »
* Bonds »
* Markets »

For links see article source....
Posted for fair use.....
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303630404577388360846621648.html

* The Wall Street Journal

* EUROPE NEWS
* Updated May 6, 2012, 8:55 p.m. ET

Challenge to Austerity, And Germany, Is Sharpened

* Article
* Slideshow
* Interactive Graphics
* Comments (24)

more in World | Find New $LINKTEXTFIND$ »

By MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG and WILLIAM BOSTON

BERLIN—Europe's voters delivered another rebuke to their leaders Sunday for failing to overcome a debt crisis that has thrust much of the region into an economic tailspin.

Less obvious is what Europeans expect their governments to do differently. From Greece to France, incumbents lost power—joining a long list that includes the former leaders of Spain and Italy. But their successors will likely find it difficult to pursue policies that deviate much from the austerity-focused course championed by Germany, Europe's paymaster.
France Elects New President

View Slideshow
[SB10001424052702304363104577387601262250194]
Remy de la Mauviniere/Associated Press

Mr. Hollande's supporters celebrated in Paris.
Europe's New Leaders

View Interactive
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Sarkozy Moments

See key moments in outgoing President Sarkozy's tenure.

View Slideshow
[SB10001424052702304743704577382173568164822]
Eric Feferberg/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

* WSJ.com/France2012: Complete Coverage

* More photos and interactive graphics

As Europe's only healthy large economy, Germany's support would be essential for any change. And Chancellor Angela Merkel and her government, fearful of popular resistance in Germany, have made clear in recent weeks that they wouldn't soften their austerity demands, no matter who won Sunday's elections.

"We will remain as tough on these issues as before," said Volker Wissing, a financial-policy expert for the Free Democrats, the junior coalition partner in Ms. Merkel's government. "We are fighting for currency stability. There is no possibility to soften the currency with Germany."

Markets present another challenge. As renewed turbulence suggests, investors continue to ask whether Europe can overcome its debt woes and keep its currency intact.

Turning away from austerity could trigger a further selloff in credit markets. If François Hollande, whom France elected president, were to embark on a Keynesian stimulus program, for instance, investors could doubt France's commitment to fiscal discipline. That would put its credit rating—key to keeping its cost of borrowing down—at risk.

"Just because investors are increasingly concerned about the lack of growth in the euro-zone's periphery does not mean that Keynesian policies would be well received by the markets," said Nicholas Spiro of Spiro Sovereign Strategy, a London-based research firm. "On the contrary. Any short-term fiscal stimulus in the periphery would fan concerns that the crisis will drag on even longer and would severely undermine the credibility of Germany and the ECB."

Even as the political lineup changes, Ms. Merkel and her hawkish allies at the European Central Bank remain firmly in control of European economic policy. Like Ms. Merkel, ECB President Mario Draghi and the influential Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann oppose any moderation of European structural reform, fiscal stimulus or the creation of common European bonds.

More

* Hollande Elected French President
* Greeks Vote Amid Anger, Doubts
* French Discontent Imperils Sarkozy
* Blog: Bayrou Swings Behind Hollande
* Greek Election Threatens to Bring Instability
* Germany's Free Democrats Pin Hopes on Young State Leader
* EU and Russia Loom Over Serbian Election

Moreover, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble is expected to take over leadership of the euro group, a key forum for shaping the euro zone's crisis response. And German officials already control other levers in Europe's crisis-fighting framework, including its main bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility.

It's possible Berlin might be open to some compromises. One potential area is using the bailout fund to help the continent's beleaguered banks.

European banks are among the largest holders of the region's government debt and have been forced to take substantial losses on some of those holdings. In addition, the worsening economic environment caused by the deep public spending cuts in countries such as Spain and Portugal have put additional pressure on banks as private and commercial creditors default.

Under the current rules, Europe's bailout fund can lend only to governments and not directly to banks. That means that a country such as Spain would have to take on substantial new debt to bail out its banking system, threatening its own access to capital markets. Berlin has been under pressure to accept a relaxation of those rules, but has so far resisted, amid concern that banks would become dependent on the aid.

A bigger question is how broad the popular backlash in France, Greece and other corners of the euro zone can get—and whether it ultimately could undermine efforts to preserve the euro.
Events on the Calendar

Meetings and milestones on the European agenda

* May 7: Greek president gives 'exploratory mandate' to the party winning the most seats in Sunday's vote. The winning party has three days to form a coalition
* May 15: France's national statistics office releases assessment of the economy
* Mid-May: François Hollande is inaugurated
* May 18-19: Group of Eight summit at Camp David, with leaders of Germany, Italy, the U.K., Japan, Russia, the U.S., Canada and France
* May 20-21: NATO summit in Chicago
* May 31: Ireland holds referendum on European Union fiscal pact
* June 10 and 17: French vote for a new National Assembly, which will define the new parliamentary majority
* June 18-19: Group of 20 leaders' summit in Mexico
* June 28: EU heads of government to discuss growth and member nations' budgets

WSJ research

Before the debt crisis, few Europeans realized the degree to which they were sacrificing their national sovereignty by joining the currency union. But in Greece, Spain and other struggling countries, Berlin's growing political and economic influence has served as a painful lesson of the increasing powerlessness of their own governments.

During the election campaign in France, supporters cast Mr. Hollande as the champion for these Southern European countries whose economies are being strangled by Germany's austerity prescription. The question now is whether he will fill that role or prove more accommodating.

Mr. Hollande has called for changing Europe's "fiscal compact"—the cornerstone of Ms. Merkel's policy in the fight to resolve the euro-zone debt crisis. He has also promised to pursue an alternative "growth compact" that would somehow feed money into Europe's weakened economies.

Yet a new approach will be tough without some German support. Mr. Hollande "will not get his maximal demands and overturn everything in Europe," said Joachim Scheide, chief economist at World Economy Institute.
—Andreas Kissler and Beate Preuschoff contributed to this article.

Write to William Boston at william.boston@dowjones.com and Matthew Karnitschnig at matthew.karnitschnig@wsj.com

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/0...than-400-in-mass-demonstration-against-putin/

Russian police arrest more than 400 in mass demonstration against Putin
Published May 06, 2012
Associated Press

MOSCOW – A demonstration by at least 20,000 people on the eve of Vladimir Putin's inauguration as president turned into a battle with police Sunday after some protesters tried to split off from the approved venue and march to the Kremlin.

Club-wielding officers wearing helmets seized demonstrators and hauled them to police vehicles, dragging some by the hair, others by the neck. Several protesters were injured, including one man with blood dripping from his head down the left side of his face.

Three leaders of the opposition movement that gained new life over the winter were among those arrested: Sergei Udaltsov, Alexei Navalny and Boris Nemtsov.

More than 400 people were arrested, and Russia's chief investigative agency said it was considering filing criminal charges of inciting riots against some of them. Police reported that 12 riot police officers were injured.

Previous installments of an unprecedented wave of protests that burst out after fraud-plagued parliamentary elections in December had been marked by fastidious order. The crowds, sometimes as big as 100,000 or more, had carefully kept to agreed-upon meeting-places and routes, even making a point of thanking police who stood guard in vast numbers, but did not interfere.

Sunday's break in that pattern likely reflected a sense of anger and impotence among protesters upset that Putin was handily elected to a new term in the Kremlin despite their defiance. Putin, who imposed a political system that stifled dissent and who dismissed the protesters as callow, pampered youths and Western stooges, will be sworn in for a six-year term Monday.

Sunday's demonstration started out peacefully, with protesters cheerfully marching down a wide avenue to a square on an island near the Kremlin. Some were pushing baby carriages and carrying young children on their shoulders. Many held clever homemade posters.

Some demonstrators aimed to turn up the pressure by trying to split off and head to the Kremlin, on the other side of the river.

When a phalanx of riot police blocked their approach to the bridge leading to the Kremlin, the protesters formed human chains and chanted "This is our city" and "Putin is a thief." Some demonstrators hurled stones at the police, and throat-irritating gas wafted through the air.

After about an hour of tense confrontation, police began pushing protesters back toward the square and harshly detained some of them. Police then detained protesters who had remained peacefully on the square. Two of the opposition leaders were dragged away while addressing the crowd and the third before he could take the stage.

The ground was left littered with broken glass and splattered with blood. Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, defended the police action.

"I would have liked them to be tougher," he said on the Dozhd cable television channel.

Before the march turned violent, some of the demonstrators acknowledged that Putin's March election win was a blow to morale.

"It's true that some have been disappointed," said Yuri Baranov, a 46-year-old information technology specialist. But "the most important thing is that people have awakened."

Others admitted some doubts about whether the protests would spur any long-term change.

"I would like to think that our voice will be heard, but I am not totally sure of this," said Yelena Karpova, 47, who came to the rally from Tula, about 120 miles south of Moscow.

The opposition's effectiveness is weakened by its own amorphousness — it is a loose alliance of leftists, Western-oriented liberals, nationalists and other factions. Some demonstrators were clearly impatient with the lack of a clear and focused program.

"Create a party, or I'm going to the dacha," read a poster held by one demonstrator, referring to the summer houses to which Muscovites love to flee.

Uh oh....guess who is probably going to be looking for a new job.....

For links see article source....
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http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/0...omb-into-london-olympic-park/?intcmp=trending

Worker smuggles fake bomb into London's Olympic Park

Published May 06, 2012

FoxNews.com

A worker smuggled a fake bomb past two checkpoints inside London’s Olympic Park just hours before Olympic Stadium officially opened, The Sun reports.

The worker called the newspaper worried about gaping security loopholes at the East London site, so The Sun had passed the worker the package he ultimately smuggled to the site just 82 days before the opening ceremony for the Summer Games.

'I came forward because things need to be tightened up fast.'

- Olympic Park worker


According to the Sun, guards failed to spot anything as the worker drove with the package containing a dummy Semtex device; once inside, the worker openly took photographs of the package next to several sites, including the athletes’ village, which is expected to house 17,000 of the world’s elite competitors.

“I came forward because things need to be tightened up fast,” the worker said.

An already-vetted construction worker could bring in materials for a deadly suicide bomb mission, the paper reports. The loophole exposed by The Sun shows just how easily that could happen.

“I’ve worked for several years on the Olympic Park and keep hearing how the security is water-tight,." said the worker.

“But after a thorough check every morning, I can come and go from the Park all the day with my digger without being searched at all."

Click to read the full story and to see the photos from The Sun.

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http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ina-sea-oil-deal-separate-from-territory-spat

Bloomberg News
Aquino Open to China Sea Oil Deal Separate From Territory Spat
By Daniel Ten Kate, Clarissa Batino and Joel Guinto on May 06, 2012

Philippine President Benigno Aquino said he’s open to an agreement with China that would allow companies to exploit oil and gas resources while the governments separately resolve South China Sea border disputes.

Aquino said his administration may split the issues to “have a political discussion on one side” and “have commercial issues on another side,” speaking in a May 4 interview at Malacanang Palace in Manila. “So long as our sovereignty is respected, we are open to partner with them.”

The U.S. ally has resisted joint exploration in some offshore areas claimed by China, increasing tensions as the countries compete for energy resources. The exploration unit of Philex Mining Corp. (PX), the Philippines’s biggest metals producer, last month said the dispute will probably delay plans to exploit what may be the country’s biggest gas field.

Aquino, 52, has championed the Philippine territorial claims even while saying the country can’t compete militarily with China, which trails only the U.S. in defense spending. A war over the resources would leave the Philippines in tatters and ordinary people would suffer, he said.

“We now have an energy source within the region, not subject to the current turmoil that is being experienced and has to be completed in the Middle East,” Aquino said. “Doesn’t it redound to everybody to get these resources online at the soonest possible time?”

Energy Need

Estimates of oil and gas reserves in the South China Sea vary, with some Chinese studies suggesting it contains more oil than Iran and more natural gas than Saudi Arabia, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. China surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest energy user in 2010, while the Philippines wants to reduce its near-total reliance on imports.

Ships from the two nations have been locked in a monthlong standoff over a land feature in the South China Sea claimed by both countries, the latest among incidents in the waters that have “increased dramatically” in the past several years, the International Crisis Group said in an April report. Last year, a Chinese surveillance vessel chased away a survey ship doing work for Forum Energy Pcl, the U.K.-based unit of Philex Mining.

The U.S. will transfer a second Coast Guard cutter to the Philippines this year, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said in Washington on April 30 during talks with Philippine counterparts. Coastal patrol vessels and maritime radar will be supplied under a long-term modernization plan, according to two U.S. officials who spoke with reporters in Washington last week on condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatic matters.

Zero Fighters

In the interview at the palace’s Ramos Room, Aquino said the military’s capabilities have been “very, very severely diminished,” noting that the Philippines has zero fighter jets and that most ships are older than he. The room was named after Fidel Ramos, who in 1986 as armed forces vice chief of staff withdrew support from dictator Ferdinand Marcos and backed Aquino’s mother, Corazon, for the presidency. Ramos succeeded Corazon Aquino as president, serving from 1992 to 1998.

“We have no capability,” Aquino said. “We have minimum responsibilities to protect the endangered species, protect our coasts, protect our exclusive economic zone. We need the wherewithal to do that.”

The president flagged Philippine success in other areas in the interview, with economic growth likely surpassing 5.2 percent in the first quarter, the most since 2010. He said a forthcoming mining-policy overhaul may also resuscitate a stalled Xstrata Plc (XTA) gold-copper project valued at $5.9 billion.

Rejecting Cooperation

Aquino didn’t elaborate on how an agreement with China on developing would work. Last year, his government submitted a proposal for joint development near the disputed Spratly and Paracel islands, while rejecting cooperation in waters closer to its shores. China has repeatedly called for shelving disputes in favor of joint development, with the latest appeal coming from Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi in March.

Aquino’s assertiveness in the South China Sea has rankled some neighbors in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations that are concerned about maintaining good ties with China, Ernest Bower and Gregory Poling, analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said in a May 4 report. The 10-member bloc has resisted Philippine calls to take a common stand on territorial disputes.

“Some countries in the region worry that the Philippines may be rolling the dice with China and pulling the United States into territorial disputes,” Bower and Poling wrote. “Asean unity on the South China Sea remains uncertain.”

Contrast With Arroyo

Aquino has taken a more aggressive stand than his predecessor, Gloria Arroyo, who had signed an agreement on joint seismic surveys in disputed waters between the Philippines, China and Vietnam. That accord was abandoned on concerns over corruption and whether it complied with the constitution.

Aquino has sought bids to develop two areas in the South China Sea claimed by China, though has yet to receive any ahead of the July 31 deadline, Energy Secretary Jose Almendras said. The Philippines has pushed China to clarify how its so-called nine-dash map of the sea complies with the United Nation’s law of the sea, while China says the law has no jurisdiction over its claims.

“We recognize the fact that it’s difficult for the Chinese government having stated the nine-dash position of theirs in 2009, to suddenly come to an agreement that says they’re relinquishing any portion of the area,” Aquino said. “The issue of loss of face to an Asian is very, very important.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Ten Kate in Bangkok at dtenkate@bloomberg.net; Clarissa Batino in Manila at cbatino@bloomberg.net; Joel Guinto in Manila at jguinto1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Peter Hirschberg at phirschberg@bloomberg.net

For links see article source....
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...-low-after-hollande-wins-french-election.html

Euro Drops to 3-Month Low After Greek, French Elections
By Masaki Kondo and Emma Charlton - May 6, 2012 6:22 PM PT

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The euro fell to a three-month low after Socialist Francois Hollande was elected president of France and as Greek voters flocked to anti-bailout parties, stoking concern austerity efforts in Europe may be derailed.

The 17-nation currency slid for a sixth day, its longest series of losses since September 2011, after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party had its worst election result in more than half a century in the state of Schleswig-Holstein. The yen and the dollar rose versus most of their major peers as Asian stocks extended a global rout, boosting demand for haven currencies.

“There are major concerns about the euro,” said Marito Ueda, senior managing director in Tokyo at FX Prime Corp. (8711), a currency margin company. “What’s common to both Greek and French voting is that people aren’t feeling good about austerity measures, which are the crux to a resolution of Europe’s debt problems.”

The euro declined to $1.2955, the weakest since Jan. 25, before trading at $1.2980 as of 10:21 a.m. in Tokyo, 0.8 percent below last week’s close in New York. It dropped 0.9 percent to 103.60 yen. The dollar was little changed at 79.81 yen.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of shares slid 2.1 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of U.S. stocks fell 1.6 percent on May 4 after government data showed American employers added fewer workers in April than economists had estimated.
Austerity Measures

Austerity measures aimed at stemming Europe’s turmoil have driven economies from the Netherlands to Spain back into recession, emboldening politicians campaigning for growth. The elections took place as 386 billion euros ($501 billion) of emergency loan packages for Greece, Ireland and Portugal and a focus on deficit reduction failed to stem Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.

The euro has declined 0.3 percent over the past month, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, which track 10 developed-nation currencies. The dollar has risen 0.7 percent and the yen has advanced 3.3 percent, the indexes show.

Hollande got about 52 percent of the vote in the French presidential election against about 48 percent for incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy, according to estimates by four pollsters. Hollande has called for a re-negotiation of a budget-discipline pact crafted by European leaders in March, saying it needs to place more emphasis on growth.

“The Hollande victory was largely expected, but it does act as a trigger to increase demand for the dollar,” said Sebastien Galy, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Societe Generale SA in New York.
Berlin Invitation

Hollande’s platform calls for policies Merkel opposes, including higher taxes, increased spending and a delayed deficit-reduction effort. He used his campaign to call for an activist European Central Bank, defying Germany.

Merkel telephoned Hollande to congratulate him on his election and to invite him for talks in Berlin “as soon as possible,” according to a statement from her government.

The German Chancellor’s Christian Democratic Union received a blow in Schleswig-Holstein as it recorded its lowest share of the vote since 1950 in the northern state. It placed first with 30.9 percent support, while Merkel’s Free Democratic Party coalition partner slumped to 8.2 percent, according to ZDF television projections. That’s almost half its score at the last ballot in 2009 and not enough for a rerun of their CDU-FDP coalition.
Greece Voting

In Greece, New Democracy won 20 percent of the total vote with more than half of the ballots from yesterday’s elections counted, according to the Interior Ministry website. Socialist Pasok, which partnered with New Democracy in securing a second rescue package for the country, trailed in third place with 42 seats. Official projections predicted the two would fall one short of the 151 seats needed to win a majority.

Syriza, a coalition of left parties which has vowed to cancel the bailout terms, has 49 seats as the second-biggest party.

With the nation dependent on bailout funds to stay in the euro, the next government will need to find cuts worth 5.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2013 and 2014. Under the terms of the 130 billion-euro aid package, which was accompanied by the biggest debt restructuring ever, international lenders expect to hear in June how Greece will achieve 11.6 billion euros of savings for those years.

To contact the reporters on this story: Masaki Kondo in Singapore at mkondo3@bloomberg.net; Emma Charlton in London at echarlton1@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rocky Swift at rswift5@bloomberg.net

For links see article source....
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/07/serbia-election-idUSL5E8G700G20120507

Serb Socialists hold key to power after tied election

Sun May 6, 2012 8:43pm EDT

* Opposition right, ruling liberals tied for power

* Socialists double vote, emerge as kingmakers

* Ex-Milosevic spokesman eyes PM post

* Liberals punished for economic stagnation

By Matt Robinson and Aleksandar Vasovic

BELGRADE, May 7 (Reuters) - The Socialist Party of late strongman Slobodan Milosevic held the key to power in Serbia on Monday after tied elections in which voters angry about the country's economic woes roundly punished the ruling Democratic Party.

The Democrats, part of a reformist bloc that turned Serbia westwards with Milosevic's ouster in 2000, saw their support crumble to 23 percent from 38 percent in 2008, hurt by an economic downturn that has left a quarter of the Serbian workforce jobless.

After years of teetering between pro-Western reformers and pro-Russian nationalists, Sunday's elections for president and parliament were marked by an unprecedented consensus between the major political blocs on Serbia's bid to join the European Union.

The right-wing Serbian Progressive Party, led by former ultranationalists who say they now share the goal of EU accession, claimed the narrowest of victories in the more-important parliamentary vote with around 24.7 percent, but was seen struggling for coalition allies.

The Democrats and the Progressives will fight it out for control of the presidency, too, when Democrat incumbent Boris Tadic and opposition leader Tomislav Nikolic go head-to-head in a run-off on May 20.

The Socialists, led by Milosevic's former spokesman Ivica Dacic, doubled their vote to some 16 percent and emerged as kingmakers.

They are widely tipped to revive Serbia's outgoing ruling coalition with the Democratic Party, an unwieldy, reformist alliance that has brought the country of 7.3 million people to within a whisker of talks on joining the EU.

But Dacic, the interior minister in the former government, will exact a high price.

"Whoever wants to talk to us ... will have to understand that we have risen from the ashes," he told jubilant supporters in the capital, Belgrade.

"Maybe Serbia doesn't know today who will be president, but it knows who will be prime minister."

WAR AND ISOLATION

There were fireworks and trumpets on the terrace of the party headquarters. Dacic has reformed the Socialists, but does not apologise for Milosevic's role in fomenting war in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990s, conflicts that killed over 100,000 people and drove his own country into poverty and international isolation.

Analyst Zoran Stojilkovic said the Socialists had "huge blackmailing potential."

"They are closer to the Democrats and they will have huge demands," he said. "The likeliest outcome is that the pro-European coalition will continue."

Dacic favours EU membership for Serbia, but is hostile towards the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the prospect of Serbia seeking new funds from the lender. He has also pledged to protect Serbia's state assets from privatisation.

Tadic and Nikolic were tied in Sunday's first-round vote for president, according to preliminary official results, but analysts expect undecided voters to turn to Tadic on May 20 out of fear of Nikolic's hardline nationalist past.

Nikolic was formerly part of the ultranationalist Radical Party, which shared power with Milosevic in 1999 when Serbia was bombed by NATO to halt the massacre and expulsion of ethnic Albanians in Kosovo.

After repeated election defeats, he broke away from the party in 2008 and pledged support for Serbia's EU membership bid.

Under the Democratic Party, Serbia closed a dark chapter with the arrest and extradition of Bosnian Serb genocide suspects Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic, and in March became an official candidate for EU membership.

The EU is weighing whether to open accession talks next year. They could last until 2020.

But there is widespread anger at the outgoing government over the country's economic woes, fueled by the crisis in the euro zone, the Balkan region's main trading partner. The average Serb takes home 380 euros a month.

Fellow ex-Yugoslav republic Croatia joins the EU next year, driving home for many Serbs just how far they have fallen behind.

Related News

* Serbian right tied for power with liberals
7:05pm EDT
* Backing EU path, Serbian right wing vies for power
6:10am EDT
* Angry Greeks vote in cliffhanger election
Sat, May 5 2012
* Leading candidates back EU bid ahead of Serbia vote
Wed, May 2 2012

Analysis & Opinion

* Euro election fever
* What happens if Hollande wins?

Related Topics

* Bonds News »
* Bonds »
* Markets »

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Posted for fair use....
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304363104577388700890057514.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

* May 6, 2012, 7:51 p.m. ET

Italian Local Elections Testing Voter Sentiment

* Article
* Comments

more in Markets | Find New $LINKTEXTFIND$ »

By GIADA ZAMPANO

ROME—Italians were casting their ballots on Sunday in mayoral and other local elections, a poll that is expected to gauge Italian voter sentiment in the wake of austerity policies imposed by the technocrat government of Prime Minister Mario Monti.

Monti and the members of his government aren't personally involved in the race, since they were appointed last November as a government of national unity aimed at steering Italy through the debt crisis.

Still, the vote, which continues on Monday, is seen as a political barometer for the two main center-left and center-right parties that back Monti's government in parliament, ahead of scheduled national elections next year.

Both the center-right People of Freedom party and the center-left Democratic Party face growing disillusion among Italian voters, as a mounting "anti-political" sentiment targets all the traditional political forces.

A range of austerity measures aimed at lowering Italy's huge debt--including a pension overhaul and tax hikes--have aggravated voters' discontent.

Monti's government, which enjoyed very high ratings when it came to power, has recently seen its popularity slip.

"Monti's government is at a critical juncture. The euro zone crisis has flared up again, and Italy's debt market remains extremely vulnerable given the contagion from Spain and doubts about the strength of domestic demand at government bond auctions," said sovereign risk analyst Nicholas Spiro of London-based firm Spiro Sovereign Strategy.

Several opinion polls published Friday all showed that almost 40% of respondents were still undecided or planning to abstain. The polls also suggested that provocative comedian Beppe Grillo--who leads the "Cinque Stelle," or "Five Star", civic movement and supports Italy's exit from the euro--would attract up to 7% of the vote, which would be a very large showing for the nascent group.

Sunday's vote is also the first election since former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's resignation six months ago, and is therefore particularly significant for his center-right coalition.

Berlusconi's People of Freedom party faces a challenging future after the collapse of its historic alliance with the separatist-minded Northern League party. The Northern League--which broke ranks with Berlusconi with the arrival of Monti--used to bring the former premier's party many votes from Italy's northern regions.

The League itself will test its electoral tenure in the North in the wake of a wide-ranging corruption investigation that led to the resignation of its charismatic leader Umberto Bossi.

Milan prosecutors are investigating whether one of the Leagues top lieutenants illegally funneled party funds to Bossi's family for their personal use. Bossi isn't under investigation and has denied any wrongdoing.

"These elections come at a moment of transition and have a very uncertain outcome," said People of Freedom member of parliament and former minister Maria Stella Gelmini.

"We don't have great expectations. Results will be obviously influenced by the end of our alliance with the Northern League and the price we'll have to pay for supporting Monti's technocrat government," she added.

Nearly 20% of Italian electorate is eligible to vote in this electoral round, which involves around 950 towns across Italy, including key cities such as Palermo, Genoa and Verona.

Polling stations opened at 0600 GMT on Sunday, with preliminary results expected after polls close at 1300 GMT on Monday.

Write to Giada Zampano at giada.zampano@dowjones.com

Housecarl said:

Yeah, the epic fail being set up is going to make the current Greek situation seem as a good thing.

Click to expand...

I read the Honduras article. Of course no one likes my drug war plan, since it takes all the money out of it... (Execute all drug dealers, no appeals, in public, that's just part of it...) But since banks/politicians make so much money from the drug cartels, they just want to keep the prices high (JMHO).

It looks as though many of the EU just want to self-immolate.

For links see article source....
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/07/us-greece-election-results-idUSBRE84601S20120507

With 96% of vote in, main Greek parties fail to win majority

ATHENS | Sun May 6, 2012 10:13pm EDT

ATHENS (Reuters) - Greece's conservative New Democracy party and Socialist rival PASOK failed to win a majority in parliament, results of 96 percent of the vote in Sunday's election showed.

The results showed the two pro-bailout parties, mauled by angry voters, won only 150 out of 300 seats in parliament.

New Democracy party was leading with about 19 percent of the vote. The socialist PASOK party was in third place, trailing the anti-bailout Left Coalition party.

Party ND LEFT C. PASOK I.Greeks KKE Golden Dawn Dem. Left

% 19.05 16.67 13.30 10.55 8.44 6.95 6.09

*New Democracy: conservative party *PASOK: Panhellenic Socialist Movement *Left C.: Left Coalition *KKE: Greek Communist Party *D.Left: Democratic Left *I.Greeks: Independent Greeks *G.Dawn: Golden Dawn (ultra-nationalist)

** 151 seats are needed for an absolute majority in the 300-member body. The party that places first in the election automatically gets an extra 50 seats to make it easier to reach the target of 151 seats needed to form a government.

(Reporting by Athens bureau, editing by Mike Peacock)


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7:42pm EDT
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7:05pm EDT
* Greek Socialist leader calls for pro-bailout unity government
3:05pm EDT
* CORRECTED-UPDATE 4-Merkel's party may lose power in northern German state
2:55pm EDT
* Greece's anti-bailout Tsipras seeks left front
1:48am EDT

Analysis & Opinion

* What happens if Hollande wins?
* Tumultuous euro zone week

Related Topics

* World »

For links see article source....
Posted for fair use....
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap...kXNlFQ?docId=c11501e0826f4b0eabc0f348b93d795c

Afghan soldier fires on NATO troops, kills 1

By CHRIS BLAKE, Associated Press – 26 minutes ago

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — An Afghan soldier killed one U.S. Marine and wounded another before being shot to death in return fire in southern Afghanistan, the latest in a series of attacks against foreigners blamed on government forces working with coalition troops.

Sunday's attack is among nearly 20 this year that have raised the level of mistrust between the U.S.-led coalition and their Afghan partners as NATO gears up to hand over security to local forces ahead of a 2014 deadline for the withdrawal of combat troops.

In another sign of deteriorating security, the United States is considering abandoning plans for a consulate in the country's north because the building chosen was deemed too dangerous to occupy. The U.S. spent $80 million on the project despite glaring security deficiencies in the former hotel, according to a copy of a document drafted by the U.S. Embassy in Kabul.

Those problems — including shoddy construction that would lead to a "catastrophic failure" of the building in a car bomb attack — were overlooked and waivers to strict State Department building rules were granted as officials rushed to open the consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif as a sign of America's long-term commitment to Afghanistan, the diplomatic memo shows.

While Mazar-i-Sharif was considered relatively safe when the project was approved in 2009, the memo said, a number of incidents in the city indicate that is no longer the case, including an attack last April on a nearby United Nations compound in which a mob stormed the facility and killed seven foreigners — three workers and their guards.

Winning over the ethnic Tajik and Uzbek minorities who dominate the north, was one of the reasons the U.S. wanted a consulate there. But the site picked was doomed from the start, the embassy documents show.

The compound shared a perimeter wall with local shopkeepers and was surrounded by tall buildings that could be used for an attack, the memo said. The distance between the compound's buildings and the outer wall also was not up to U.S. standards, it added.

In the event of an emergency, there wasn't even enough space to land a single helicopter, so one would have to land on a nearby street, the memo said.

Neighborhood security also was in question. The compound was near a large mosque that is often the center of large protests in the city, and a nearby truck stop and pickup spot for day laborers provided easy cover for surveillance or attack, it said.

The memo, which was first reported in the Washington Post, said the "security vulnerabilities" at the site and increased threats in Mazar-i-Sharif were overwhelming.

"Consequently, establishing a diplomatic presence at the current location is no longer believed to be tenable and the search for an alternative site has been initiated," it said.

U.S. Embassy spokesman Gavin Sundwall declined to comment on the report, saying only that "the security situation has evolved in Afghanistan and any decisions we make are driven by our responsibility to ensure the safety of our personnel."

Persistent violence has threatened to undermine President Barack Obama's effort to show progress in stabilizing Afghanistan at a NATO summit later this month in Chicago. Obama traveled to Afghanistan on May 1 to sign a long-term strategic partnership governing the relationship between the two countries through 2024.

The Afghan soldier opened fire on international troops in the Tarekh Naver in the Marjah district, a former Taliban stronghold that was the site of a major offensive by coalition forces in 2010, said a spokesman for the governor of Helmand province.

A senior U.S. defense official in Washington said Sunday that the victim was a U.S. Marine in Helmand province, and that one other Marine was wounded. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the attack is under investigation had no other details.

The shooting marks the second recent killing of a U.S. Marine in Helmand by an Afghan soldier. Lance Cpl. Edward Dycus was shot in the head by an Afghan soldier in Helmand's Marja district while on guard duty on Jan. 31 and died the next day.

The provincial governor's spokesman, Daud Ahmadi said the service member was killed in a gunfight between NATO forces and an Afghan army soldier, with one service member killed and another wounded.

The insider threat to foreigners trying to mentor and strengthen Afghan security forces has existed for years but has grown more deadly.

The U.S.-led coalition routinely reports each time an American or other foreign soldier is killed by an Afghan in uniform, but the military is underreporting the number of overall attacks. The Associated Press reported earlier this month that the coalition does not report attacks in which the Afghan wounds — or misses — his U.S. or allied target. It also doesn't report the wounding of troops who were attacked alongside those who were killed.

The number of such attacks have been on the rise. So far this year there have been 19 attacks killing 12 soldiers, compared to 21 last year killing 35 coalition service members, according to NATO figures.

That compares with 11 fatal attacks and 20 deaths the previous year. In 2007 and 2008 there were a combined total of four attacks and four deaths.

U.S. officials say that in most cases the Afghans who turn their guns on their allies are motivated not by sympathy for the Taliban or on orders from insurgents, but rather act as a result of personal grievances against the coalition.

Also Sunday, a NATO service member was killed by a bomb in eastern Afghanistan, the alliance said, raising to 139 the number of foreign troops deaths so far this year.

The heads of the House and Senate intelligence committees claimed Sunday that the Taliban has actually grown stronger since 33,000 more U.S. troops were deployed to Afghanistan in 2010.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat, and Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican, offered the pessimistic report on CNN's "State of the Union" after a fact-finding trip to the region where they met with President Hamid Karzai.

When asked if the Taliban's capabilities have been degraded, Feinstein said: "I think we'd both say that what we've found is that the Taliban is stronger."

More than 1,800 U.S. troops have been killed in the decade-long war. About 90,000 service members remain deployed, down from a peak of more than 100,000 last year.

Associated Press writers Robert Burns in Washington and Mirwais Khan in Kandahar contributed to this report.

Copyright © 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

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CBS News - 15 hours ago

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http://atimes.com/atimes/China/NE08Ad02.html

Greater China
May 8, 2012
Gaps in China's area-denial strategy
By Jens Kastner

TAIPEI - Much is being said about the Chinese military dramatically improving its combat capability to keep United States forces at arm's length.

Anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) is the magic slogan, meaning that the People's Liberation Army's (PLA's) new shore-based artillery, aircraft and naval assets could deny a rapid deployment by United States forces into the Pacific in the event of a conflict, since the US would face heavy losses. But exactly how concerned is the US?

A US military exercise that took place in April known as Operation Chimichanga provides some of the answers, but if it wasn't for the journalists David Axe and Noah Shachtman, nobody would have likely taken note of it outside the US army.

In an article for the American magazine Wired, the pair described a US Air Force drill in Alaska in early April, during which F-22 Raptor stealth fighters supported by older F-16s paved the way for B-1 bombers, which reduced an imaginary enemy's air defense into rubble. As this impressive drill was pronouncedly put into a long-range strike context, it was plainly obvious that the exercise was aimed at China, according to the article.

"Officially, Operation Chimichanga was meant to validate the long-range strike capability of the B-1s as well as the F-22s' and F-16s' ability to escort them into an anti-access target area," Axe and Shachtman wrote. "Unofficially, Operation Chimichanga was a proof-of-concept for the air force's evolving tactics for battling China over the vast western Pacific ... the air force would never say that."

When North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)-led forces took on Muammar Gaddafi's Libya in 2011, there was no such a thing as A2/AD strategy to worry about. Allied warships and submarines could get easily into waters off the North African coast, fire cruise missiles against Libyan commando posts and together with fighter jets destroy that country's air-defense systems in no time at all. Once the latter was achieved, Gaddafi's days were numbered as NATO fighter jets and attack helicopters roamed Libyan airspace with near impunity.

In the unlikely event of a US attack on China, things wouldn't be as simple. One-and-a-half decades have passed since then-US president Bill Clinton ordered the USS Independence and USS Nimitz carrier battle groups into the Taiwan Strait right at China's doorsteps to stop the Chinese from muscling Taiwan, and such a deployment will not happen again.

Since the PLA was humiliated by Clinton in the mid-1990s, it has honed the A2/AD doctrine to perfection, with the flag weapon of choice being the Deng Feng 21D (DF-21D), the ballistic "carrier killer" anti-ship missile.

Together with the Beidou satellite system, which from the end of this decade will provide the PLA missile force with precision targeting capabilities, in addition to countless other weapon systems, the DF-21D will be used to protect China and its vast territorial claims reaching from Tibet and Xinjiang to the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.

There also is China's nuclear arsenal. But an American attack on China is only feasible if it was over the PLA trying to get its hands on places such as Taiwan, South Korea, Japan or Australia; it is highly doubtful that the Chinese leadership would choose to press the red button in order to facilitate such a PLA crusade.

In their article on "Operation Chimichanga", Axe and Shachtman explained what problems the US would face when taking on China with conventional weapons.

"While the Alaska test apparently proved that the stealthy strike team can defeat determined enemy forces at long range, it also underscored America's vulnerability against the fast-growing Chinese military", they wrote. "It takes the latest stealth fighters and upgraded bombers flying as a team to beat China, and thanks to developmental problems America has only so many of those airplanes to work with."

The two added that while the US Air Force has about 150 bombers, only a handful of B-2s are fully stealthy. That makes the lion's share of the bomber force vulnerable to China's thousands of air defense positions. In theory, F-22s or the F-35s could first knock these out. But the US has fewer than 200 F-22s operational, which would be hardly enough, while the delay-plagued F-35 hasn't even been built.

Nonetheless, experts interviewed by Asia Times Online believe that the edge the US always had over China is not gone.

According to Oliver Braeuner, a China and security expert at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute), the notion that China's A2/AD-protected zones have become impenetrable is greatly exaggerated.

"The United States remains the world's number one military power and still accounted for around 41% of global defense spending in 2011," Braeuner said.

He added that the US's allies in the region could be destined to take over part of the dirty work.

"With the recently announced 'pivot to Asia', Washington has reaffirmed its commitment to regional security in the Asia-Pacific. However, this approach does not rely on US military power alone," Braeuner said. "It will probably mean that in the future America's regional allies will have to take over greater security responsibilities themselves as well."

Steve Tsang, director of the University of Nottingham's China Policy Institute, thinks Beijing is misguided in its assessment on the PLA's A2/AD capability.

"Having an operational anti-ship ballistic missile [DF-21D] will not in fact be as critical as many in Beijing think. The US Navy and Air Force will expect to suffer significant losses if the US became involved in a military confrontation with a near peer competitor," Tsang said.

He said that the prospect of major combatant ships, such as aircraft carriers, being badly damaged or even lost would not be sufficient to deter US forces from fulfilling the orders of their political leadership.

According to Tsang, the US already has plans to deal with the A2/AD capabilities of the PLA, the most effective of which at the moment are PLA submarines. He sees the Chinese and the Americans playing a cat and mouse game that will continue to develop and change as technologies evolve.

"A 'game changer' is not the same as something that will put an end to the game," Tsang said.

"This applies to when the PLA can demonstrate that its anti-ship ballistic missiles are accurate, effective and operational. The US will just respond in ways that will minimize the risk to its assets and adopt different tactics and weapon systems."

James Holmes, an associate professor at the US Naval War College, also said that operating in China's forbidden zones, though dangerous, has not yet become a suicide mission for US forces.

"Navies have always taken risks operating within reach of shore-based gunfire. In the age of sails, it was about cannon firing from the ramparts of fortresses," Holmes said.

"Today, the anti-ship ballistic missile and other anti-access weaponry should be viewed as a very extended-range version of the same thing."

Holmes sees this is a serious challenge not "because the Chinas or Irans of the world can lock the US military out of certain areas on the map", but because they can impose steep costs for daring to enter these areas.

"Unless US decision-makers are willing to pay these costs, they may not send forces into harm's way in times of strife. China, to name the main anti-access player, is betting that Washington values Taiwan less than it does the US Pacific Fleet."

He then expounded on a school of thought gaining momentum in the US, called "offshore balancing". According to Holmes, this is the notion that the US can retire from its commitments in Eurasia, entrust them to nations to balance any big power that seeks to dominate the region, and return only if local powers can't restrain the would-be hegemon.

"That means arms [for US allies]. But what the specific arms packages should look like is another question."

Holmes concluded on a confident note. "We are certainly working on things, and on doctrine and tactics, to overcome the Anti-Access/Area Denial challenge - to return the costs of entry to an acceptable level for us."

John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, a US think-tank, say the US military's seeming lack of concern is particularly telling.

"One of the primary defenses against anti-shipping cruise missiles is the CIWS Goalkeeper gun system [which fires from ships against incoming missiles and ballistic shells]," Pike said.

"If you were worried about saturation attacks, you might add more of them to each ship. This is not happening. In contrast, during World War II the US Navy was worried about Kamikaze [pilots], and ships were absolutely encrusted with anti-aircraft guns."

Jens Kastner is a Taipei-based journalist.

Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved.

Related Articles:
China searches for maritime stability
May 1, '12

The China pivot and the US 'siege' strategy
Apr 26, '12

For links see article source....
Posted for fair use....
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/financ...-for-london-property-prices-hollande-has-won/

Hollande wins and the end of the euro draws nearer

By Jeremy Warner Economics Last updated: May 6th, 2012, 23:00

78 Comments

In France, and in Greece, the anti-austerity backlash has achieved a double victory this weekend, bringing closer the point at which the euro breaks asunder.

Continued German support for the single currency relies on acceptance of the austerity imposed by the fiscal compact. Both France and Greece have now resoundingly rejected the old political consensus, making the future of the single currency more uncertain than ever.

In recent days, the European Union, in seeming anticipation of these election results, has loosened its rhetoric around austerity. Olli Rehn, the European commissioner for economic affairs, has called for growth friendly austerity and insisted: "The stability and growth pact is not stupid… the pact entails considerable scope for judgment when it comes to its application."

But is Berlin going to accept this volte face? This seems at best questionable. It is all very well to vote against austerity, but where is the money to come from for fiscal expansionism, even in France, let alone Greece, Spain and Italy? The markets are still as reluctant to lend as ever.

For the moment, the UK clings to the old austerity agenda, though as I have pointed out before, this is in truth more about rhetoric than substance. The voters may be losing their stomach for it, but assuming the Coalition survives, it will be another three years before they have their say.

You may have noticed, but the pound has strengthened quite a bit in recent months. Since its low point against the euro, sterling is up more than 10pc. Regrettably, that's not because of the innate attractions of the UK economy. Double dip recession doesn't self evidently make Britain the pin up boy of Europe. But everything is relative, and on balance the UK looks a rather better bet than much of the rest of Europe – especially to the rich.

With a 75pc higher rate of taxation now about to hit them, the wealthy French will be looking to get their money out as surely as the Greeks, Italians and Greeks already have. Backtracking on austerity and structural reform will further accentuate the flight of capital. The London property market is one place this money will be heading.

As the Swiss have discovered to the cost of their industries, which have been made steadily more uncompetitive by the appreciation of the Swiss franc, being seen as a safe haven in a storm is not necessarily a good thing. But it may well be better than what France and much of the rest of Europe has got to look forward to.

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Germany says renegotiating EU pact
‘not possible’ after French election

By Agence France-Presse
Monday, May 7, 2012 7:33 EDT
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/05/...g-eu-pact-not-possible-after-french-election/​

The German government on Monday ruled out reworking the European Union’s fiscal pact despite calls to do so by French president-elect Francois Hollande.

“It is not possible to renegotiate the fiscal pact,” government spokesman Steffen Seibert told a regular news conference.

He noted that 25 of the 27 EU member states had already signed the accord imposing strict budgetary discipline in March after major wrangling.

Hollande has called for a shift in strategy toward more growth-oriented measures including more public spending.

But Seibert said Merkel would not accept “deficit spending” to feed economic expansion, and believed in “growth through structural reforms” such as reducing the cost of job creation as pursued by Germany over the last decade.

Yet he dismissed suggestions that the apparently conflicting policies would put Merkel on a collision course with Germany’s closest ally, insisting she was ready for an open dialogue.

“We will see what proposals and ideas he has and go from there,” Seibert said, referring to Hollande.

He noted that Merkel was also a firm believer in promoting growth as a path out of the debt crisis.

“Growth is not a new issue but rather the second pillar of our fiscal policy, and not just since yesterday,” he said.

Seibert said he did not intend to draw red lines before Hollande’s first visit to Berlin, expected imminently after he assumes power from President Nicolas Sarkozy, a close Merkel ally, on May 15.

“I would find it quite inappropriate for a government spokesman to already say what will work and what won’t,” he said, referring to Merkel and Hollande’s first meeting.






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Markets braced for more turbulence

Graeme Evans
Monday 07 May 2012
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/markets-braced-for-more-turbulence-7720480.html​

Traders have warned of more market turbulence after elections in
Greece and France fuelled uncertainty over Europe's ability to solve its
debt crisis.

Germany's Dax and France's Cac-40 were more than 1% lower and the main stock exchange in Athens slumped 8% today as markets worried that Greece's failure to form a government has placed further doubt over the country's rescue, increasing speculation over the eventual break-up of the single currency.

The election of socialist Francois Hollande as France's new president was widely expected but will add to growing expectations of a backlash against Europe's current austerity drive led by German chancellor Angela Merkel.

London markets were shut today but could resume on the back foot after slumping 2% on Friday on fears the US recovery is running out of steam.

Analysts fear the result of the Greek elections, with no party winning enough votes to form a government, has left the country in political limbo, preventing much needed reforms.

Anita Paluch, a trader at Gekko Global Markets, said: "Having rejected the austerity, the country finds itself in a spot from where it may be difficult to meet its obligations and this is what is spooking the markets at the moment - the possibility of a disorderly default of a member state."

Ms Merkel also suffered a setback yesterday in a regional election in the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein.

Manuel Maleki, an analyst at ING Bank, said a new equilibrium will have to be found in Europe.

He added: "While the markets could initially worry about tensions between Germany and France, the possibility of a revision of the current recession-austerity mix in Europe is not necessarily a bad thing for the longer term stabilising the eurozone."

As well as the fresh European uncertainty, markets are worried over the state of the world's largest economy after figures on Friday showed US jobs growth slumped in April for a second month in a row.

The developments also add to pressure on the Bank of England as it meets to decide whether to offer more emergency support for the UK economy this week.

Experts are divided over whether the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee will increase its £325 billion quantitative easing stock, after injecting £50 billion in February. Interest rates will be kept at a record low of 0.5%.





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Forbes
5/07/2012 @ 7:47AM |15 views

Who's Afraid of Francois Hollande?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/mahaatal/2012/05/07/whos-afraid-of-francois-hollande/​

The business community isn’t thrilled about France’s new president Francois Hollande. He is the first socialist to occupy the Elysée in almost twenty years. He leads a party that – unlike its fellow leftists in Spain, Germany, or the UK – never had a Third Way reformist wave to reconcile it to markets and globalization.

And he’s been drumming an aggressively anti-corporate beat on the campaign trail. The Economist calls him ‘a dangerous man.’ Fortune worries about his ‘air of instability.’

The panic is overblown.

There is a vast gap between what candidates say at rallies and they way they wind up governing. While Hollande promised French voters higher taxes on the wealthy and an end to corporate tax breaks, he worked equally hard to court business leaders, including those in the financial sector. He knows that bond investors will lose faith in French debt if Hollande’s government is seen as fiscally reckless, and he knows that if they do, and France goes the way of Italy and Greece, even the most die-hard socialists will blame Hollande. That’s why he’s promised to balance the budget and reduce the country’s deficit, and that pledge is likely to force him to reconsider his most radical proposals, like the 75% marginal tax rate on top earners. Globalization – in the form of the eurozone – will force Hollande’s unreformed Parti Socialiste to tack towards the center.

At the same time, Hollande’s socialism will be most aggressively on display – and most valuable – on the European stage, where he has begun pushing back against the austerity model imposed by Germany, the European Central Bank and the IMF. Hollande is pointing out the obvious, that the current policies of aggressive spending cuts and cheap credit from the ECB are keeping the euro alive, but are not enough to fix it. He’s insisting that the upcoming ‘fiscal compact’ include provisions for a Europe-wide growth strategy, and his first task as President will be a trip to Germany to convince Angela Merkel to tolerate a little more inflation in exchange for growth.

I for one hope he succeeds.

One to Watch: I’m intrigued by the news that his partner, journalist Valérie Trierweiler, plans to keep her job at Paris Match while Hollande is in office. She’s switched from the politics beat to the culture desk to avoid a conflict of interest, but she’s keeping her job and her salary. She got testy with reporters on Sunday who asked her if Hollande’s win was ‘the most beautiful day’ of her life. As someone who finds the notion of political spouses as accessories to their partners’ careers outdated and strange, I salute her independence.






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Elections Install Anti-Austerity
Candidates In Both France And Greece

By Spread Betting
Forex
May 07, 2012 10:57AM GMT
http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/a...y-candidates-in-both-france-and-greece-122396​

Equity markets in Europe gapped lower to start the week after weekend headlines centered on the election outcomes in Greece and France. In both cases, the previous majority party lost to the anti-austerity candidates, and this is leading markets to question the political progress that has been made in recent months with respect to the structured debt programs that have been passed. The activity in Europe is dragging on stock prices in Asia in the US as well, with the Euro Stoxx 600 posting declines of roughly 1 percent during the London session.

The Euro Stoxx 600 has now given back all of the gains made since the middle of April, after the 2.4 percent weekly loss last week. Sentiment was mostly negative into the close on Friday after the disappointing employment figures out of the US. The Non Farm Payrolls report for the month of April came in at an increase of 120,000 and showed the third straight month of slowing momentum in the labor markets.

Longer term, though, the latest news over the weekend will add a definite element of uncertainty in the Eurozone going forward. In Greece, the political situation is more precarious, as additional allotments of economic aid cannot be disbursed without a new budget proposal by June. Essentially, these latest events will likely lead to more analyst suggestions that Greece will be unable to pass economic measures in line with the requirements made previously with the rest of the Eurozone. In this worst case scenario, there is once again the possibility that Greece will have no choice but to leave the EU and abandon the Euro.

Ahead today, regional macro data will come in the form of the German Factory Orders report, which is expected to show a 0.5 percent increase from February to March. Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone, so while this number generally does not get much attention from markets, any weakness could lead to some momentum selling as traders become less and less willing to hold onto European assets. Also today, we will have the latest French debt auction, where the country is looking to sell 8 billion Euros worth of one year treasuries.

Currency Chart

The EUR/USD is continuing to post lower highs and the downtrend has now been confirmed with a final break back through the psychological 1.30 level. The latest break was matched by the drop in the MACD back into negative territory. RSI readings are currently at mid levels, which suggests that the next bear rally has plenty of downside room to extend. Look to sell this pair on any rallies, if given the opportunity. Preferred levels are seen at 1.3080.
Equity Chart

The FTSE 100 has finally come to its decision point in its symmetrical triangle with this weeks sharp drop lower. RSI indicator readings are not yet at extreme levels but we are coming into some significant support areas that are likely to hold on first test. Aggressive traders can take short term longs into 5590 but stops need to be kept tight as the longer term momentum is clearly to the downside, suggesting an eventual break.





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Markets plunge after Greece
and France election results

AP
Monday 07 May 2012
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...eece-and-france-election-results-7720482.html​

Renewed uncertainty over Europe's ability to deal with its
spawning debt crisis following elections in Greece and France hammered
stock markets today, with the main exchange in Athens down a massive 8%.

Investors have been particularly spooked by the election in Greece yesterday, which has resulted in a split Parliament where no party looks like it will be able to form a government.

The two parties that governed as a coalition for the past six months were pummelled to the benefit of more extreme parties of the right and left. The socialist Pasok party suffered the biggest retreat. Its share of the vote collapsed from around 43% in the last election in 2009 to a little over 13%.

A period of uncertainty looms for the bailed-out country, which is in its fifth year of recession and has over half its youth out of work following big spending cuts and tax increases in return for crucial international bailout funds. If no government can be formed that can command a majority in Parliament, another general election within the next two months seems possible.

"As for the Greek elections, they resulted in complete uncertainty with the possibility of another election taking place in the near future in order to try and put in place a government that can actually have some modicum of control," said Gary Jenkins, managing director of Swordfish Research.

With more than 99% of the vote counted, conservative New Democracy led with 18.9% and 108 of Parliament's 300 seats. Party leader Antonis Samaras, who backs Greece's bailout commitments for austerity, will launch coalition-forming talks later in the day.

Further weighing on sentiment is yesterday's defeat of French President Nicolas Sarkozy to his socialist rival Francois Hollande, who has campaigned on the need for more growth-generating economic policies and less reliance on austerity. Final results from France's presidential election show Hollande narrowly defeated incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy with 51.62 % of the vote.

Even German Chancellor Angela Merkel suffered a setback yesterday in a regional election in the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein. Merkel and her government have borne the brunt of the criticism over Europe's austerity drive.

"Election defeats for President Sarkozy, and for the main coalition parties in Greece and for Angela Merkel's party in Schleswig Holstein highlight voter backlash against austerity, economic contraction in unemployment," said Neil MacKinnon, global macro strategist at VTB Capital.

In Europe, Germany's DAX was down 1.4% at 5,468, while the CAC-40 in France fell 1.2% to 3,125. The FTSE 100 of leading British shares was closed for a public holiday.

Greek shares suffered worse, trading 8.2% lower.

In the currency markets, the euro recovered some of its poise after falling to a three-month low against the dollar during Asian trading hours. It was up 0.4% at 1.3018 dollars, having earlier fallen to a low of 1.2972 dollars.

Wall Street was also poised to open lower with Dow futures and the S&P 500 futures both 0.7% lower.

Earlier in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 index plunged 2.8% to close at 9,119.14 - its lowest finish in three months - with the market's export sector also sapped by a rising yen. Hong Kong's Hang Seng slid 2.6% to 20,536.59. In other Asia markets, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 lost 2.2% to 4,301.30 and South Korea's Kospi shed 1.6% to 1,956.44.

Oil prices fell alongside equities, with the benchmark New York rate down 91 cents at 97.58 dollars a barrel.





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Greek election results spook markets

Associated Press
Posted: Monday, May 7, 2012 5:44 am
http://www.stltoday.com/news/scienc...cle_449bea4a-496f-5eef-844a-e9e2abdd3bed.html​

Renewed uncertainty over Europe's sprawling debt crisis following elections in Greece and France weighed on stock markets Monday, with the main exchange in Athens down a massive 8 percent at one stage.

Investors have been particularly spooked by the Sunday election in Greece, which resulted in a split Parliament with no party likely to be able to form a government. The two parties that governed as a coalition for the past six months were pummeled to the benefit of more extreme parties of the right and left. The socialist Pasok party suffered the biggest retreat. Its share of the vote collapsed from around 43 percent in the last election in 2009 to a little over 13 percent.

A period of uncertainty looms for the bailed-out country, which is in its fifth year of recession and has over half its youth out of work following big spending cuts and tax increases in return for crucial international bailout funds. If no government can be formed that can command a majority in Parliament, another general election within the next two months seems possible.

"Financial markets loath uncertainty, and so the reaction seen to the elections makes a great deal of sense," said David White, a trader at Spreadex.

With more than 99 percent of the vote counted, conservative New Democracy led with 18.9 percent and 108 of Parliament's 300 seats. Party leader Antonis Samaras, who backs Greece's bailout commitments for austerity, will launch coalition-forming talks later in the day.

Further weighing on sentiment is Sunday's defeat of French President Nicolas Sarkozy to his socialist rival Francois Hollande, who has campaigned on the need for more growth-generating economic policies and less reliance on austerity. While economists agree more growth would help fight the debt crisis, some fear Hollande could upset the current balance in European policies, with uncertain consequences.

Final results showed Hollande narrowly defeated incumbent Sarkozy with 51.62 percent of the vote.

Even German Chancellor Angela Merkel suffered a setback Sunday in a regional election in the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein. Merkel and her government have borne the brunt of the criticism over Europe's austerity drive.

"Election defeats for President Sarkozy, and for the main coalition parties in Greece and for Angela Merkel's party in Schleswig Holstein highlight voter backlash against austerity, economic contraction in unemployment," said Neil MacKinnon, global macro strategist at VTB Capital.

In Europe, shares opened sharply lower but recovered some ground as the day wore on.

Germany's DAX was down 0.8 percent at 6,506, while the CAC-40 in France fell 0.3 percent at 3,153. The FTSE 100 of leading British shares was closed for a public holiday.

Greek shares suffered worse, trading 8.2 percent lower at one stage before recouping some ground alongside other European markets, to be trading 6 percent lower.

In the currency markets, the euro also recovered some of its poise after falling to a three-month low against the dollar during Asian trading hours. It was up 0.5 percent at $1.3032, having earlier fallen to a low of $1.2972.

Wall Street was also poised to open lower with Dow futures and the S&P 500 futures both 0.5 percent lower.

Earlier in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 index plunged 2.8 percent to close at 9,119.14 _ its lowest finish in three months _ with the market's export sector also sapped by a rising yen. Hong Kong's Hang Seng slid 2.6 percent to 20,536.59. In other Asia markets, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 lost 2.2 percent to 4,301.30 and South Korea's Kospi shed 1.6 percent to 1,956.44.

Oil prices fell alongside equities, with the benchmark New York rate down 65 cents at $97.84 a barrel.

____


Read more: http://www.stltoday.com/news/scienc...96f-5eef-844a-e9e2abdd3bed.html#ixzz1uBWG0t3y



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Nabila Ramdani: François Hollande will
strike fear into the hearts of the rich

He has admitted that he 'does not like the rich' and
declared: 'my real enemy is the world of finance'

Nabila Ramdani
Monday 07 May 2012
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinio...fear-into-the-hearts-of-the-rich-7718666.html​

Power to the People?​

I was going to write in The Independent on Sunday about the paradox of the Government offering power...

Socialism​

France will be waking up today to its first Socialist President for 17 years – and bracing for radical change. There are all kinds of reasons why one might fear a François Hollande presidency, especially if you are a prosperous French person.


The 57-year-old Socialist has openly admitted that he "does not like the rich" and declared that "my real enemy is the world of finance". This means taxing the wealthy by up to 75 per cent, curtailing the activities of Paris as a centre for financial dealing, and ploughing millions into creating more civil service jobs.

Add an explicit threat to renegotiate the euro pact to replace austerity with "growth-creating" spending, and you have one of the most vehemently left-wing programmes in recent history.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel – the woman at the centre of the Franco-German economic powerhouse which has dominated Europe – was at one stage even threatening to campaign for her conservative ally, Nicolas Sarkozy, against Mr Hollande.

Caution is justified, though one thing Mr Hollande will not repeat is the disastrous tax-and-spend policies introduced by France's last Socialist President, François Mitterrand, in 1981. He was soon forced into a humiliating U-turn, and into sharing power with the right as the Communists quit his cabinet in protest.

In contrast, Mr Hollande will focus on solving the euro crisis and reversing a Gallic economic decline widely blamed on a failed capitalist system, and particularly a rotten banking sector.

Just as pertinently, he will seek to heal divides caused by five years of the most unpopular head of state in post-war history.

Mr Sarkozy continually stigmatised perceived undesirables, from France's six-million-strong Muslim community to Roma Travellers, whom his administration regularly deported.

The diminutive conservative has claimed Mr Hollande is an incompetent "liar" who will "bankrupt France", but the caricature of an untrustworthy leftist is wide of the mark.

Mr Hollande is an Enarque – a product of ENA (L'École Nationale d'Administration) France's elite "rulers' academy".

He came seventh in his year, above former conservative Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin, and is by no means the grey, provincial local government apparatchik his detractors claim.

Mr Hollande styles himself as a "social democrat" and not as any kind of revolutionary.

"I want to initiate a change in society in the long term," is how he put it earlier this month, as he outlined a programme which was far more pragmatic than ideological.

Mr Hollande's commitment to equality is evident in his promise to introduce parity between men and women in his cabinet, and create a ministry of women's rights. Efforts will also be made to promote equal pay between the sexes. He will bring under-represented minorities into government, and work to make the Republic more egalitarian.

Managing France is a near-impossible task at the best of times, and the current warnings of economic chaos and social disorder are no worse than those levelled at Mr Sarkozy five years ago.

François Hollande is going to have an extremely rough time, but he should not be written off as easily as some would like.






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US stock futures tumble

after European elections

ASSOCIATED PRESS
Updated: May 7, 2012, 8:04 AM
http://www.buffalonews.com/wire-feeds/24-hour-national-news/article845456.ece​

NEW YORK (AP) - A roiling political landscape in Europe is sending U.S. stock futures lower, with the parliament now split in economically fragile Greece and the election of Socialist as president in France.

The election results are seen as a rejection of budget cuts intended to whittle away debt in a continent saddled with it.

The Dow Jones industrial average is down 46 points to 12,911. The Standard & Poor's 500 is off 5.7 points to 1,356.80. The Nasdaq composite index is down 12 points to 2,613.50.

Global markets tumbled Monday after a weekend election in Greece with no party close to forming a government. Greece is in its fifth year of recession and unemployment is rampant.

France's president-elect, Francois Hollande, pledged to buck Europe's austerity trends.






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Folks; I have to ask..... Is anyone interested in these financial/EU di dos? I mean, I can find these news articles (but I don't know - really. If any one is actually interested in keeping abrest to this "stuff"....

TFD



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May 7, 2012, 8:00 a.m. EDT

U.S. stock futures slide on Europe fears
By William L. Watts, MarketWatch
Reuters
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-slide-on-europe-fears-2012-05-07?dist=beforebell​

FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock-index futures fell Monday as investors around the world unloaded stocks and other assets perceived as risky after Greek voters punished the country’s pro-bailout political parties and François Hollande defeated French President Nicolas Sarkozy in weekend elections.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/zigman/8750834 DJM2 -0.43% fell 50 points, or 0.4%, to 12,907, trimming earlier, deeper losses.

S&P 500 Index futures /quotes/zigman/900181 SPM2 -0.39% lost 6 points to 1,356.50, while Nasdaq 100 futures /quotes/zigman/4225619 NDM2 -0.42% dropped 12 points to 2,613.50.

Click to Play Greece rejects mainstream partiesGreek voters Sunday delivered a stinging rejection of the country's two incumbent parties-the Socialist, or Pasok, party and the conservative New Democracy party.

“Global risk appetite is again on the back foot as markets digest this weekend’s French and Greek elections. While Mr. Hollande’s victory in the French presidential elections was in line with expectations, his relationship with Germany’s chancellor remains untested,” wrote strategists at Barclays in London.

Meanwhile, the muddled outcome of the Greek parliamentary vote appears to be causing the greatest heartburn for investors, strategists said.

Voters punished the country’s two, largest pro-bailout parties, leaving them short of a parliamentary majority in Athens amid surging support for a variety of small parties opposed to added austerity measures that Greece must approve to receive its second bailout.

Greek party leaders will begin talks Monday in an effort to form a government, but prospects for a coalition appeared dim after the inconclusive results, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Asian equities fell hard in the wake of the Sunday election results. European equities shook off early losses, with the Stoxx 600 Index /quotes/zigman/2380150 XX:SXXP +0.17% edging up 0.1%, while the Athens General Index /quotes/zigman/1384511 GR:GD -7.10% tumbled more than 7%. Read more on stocks’ reactions to European political uncertainty.

London markets were closed for a public holiday.

U.S. stocks ended last week under heavy pressure, with the S&P 500 /quotes/zigman/3870025 SPX -1.61% and the Nasdaq Composite Index /quotes/zigman/123127 COMP -2.25% posting their worst week of the year as investors fretted over the European elections and as April’s jobs data came in below expectations.

The Dow industrials /quotes/zigman/627449 DJIA -1.27% dropped 168.32 points Friday to end at 13,028.27, making for a weekly loss of 1.4%. The S&P 500 declined 22.47 points to 1,369.10, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 67.96 points Friday to 2,956.34.

The U.S. economic calendar is nearly bare Monday, with just March consumer credit data set for release at 3 p.m. Eastern.

On the corporate front, Tyson Foods Inc. /quotes/zigman/244186/quotes/nls/tsn TSN -1.10% said second-quarter profit was boosted by higher chicken and pork results to $166 million, or 44 cents a share. Revenue rose 3% to $8.27 billion. Wall Street analysts had forecast earnings of 39 cents a share on revenue of $8.47 billion.

Frontier Communications Corp. /quotes/zigman/7729100/quotes/nls/ftr FTR -1.27% said first-quarter earnings fell 51% as the regional telecommunications carrier saw lower first-quarter revenue amid a drop in residential and business customers.

Also Monday, Nymex crude oil for June delivery /quotes/zigman/2203144 CLM2 -0.76% fell 62 cents to $97.87 a barrel in electronic trading. Gold for June delivery /quotes/zigman/661661 GCM2 -0.44% futures lost $6.20 to stand at $1,639 an ounce.

The euro /quotes/zigman/4867933/sampled EURUSD +0.20% tumbled below $1.30 to trade at its lowest level since February before trimming losses. It changed hands at $1.3027 in recent action, down from $1.3095 in North American trading late Friday.

The dollar index /quotes/zigman/1652083 DXY +0.27% , which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of major rivals, climbed to 79.856, up from 79.486. The dollar /quotes/zigman/4868099/sampled USDJPY +0.13% bought ¥79.86 yen, little changed from ¥79.88.





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Germany's Merkel:
Greece must stick to reform path

The Associated Press
Posted May 7, 2012 at 5:09 a.m.
http://www.vcstar.com/news/2012/may/07/germanys-merkel-greece-must-stick-to-reform-path/​

BERLIN —BERLIN (AP) - Germany's chancellor said any new Greek government must continue to implement the mix of austerity measures and structural reforms that the country has agreed to in exchange for its international bailouts.

Chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday said Greece itself must see what coalition government might be feasible following Sunday's parliamentary elections.

Germany says it will work with any democratically elected Greek government. But Merkel cautions that "of course, the most important thing is that the programs we agreed with Greece will be continued."

Greece - which is deeply mired in recession - has agreed to harsh austerity measures and reforms in return for two massive bailouts from European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.


Read more: http://www.vcstar.com/news/2012/may...eece-must-stick-to-reform-path/#ixzz1uBbvV4Ya
- vcstar.com



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Greek political earthquake rattles eurozone
Eurozone turmoil renews: reports

By Simon Sturdee, Agence France-Presse
May 7, 2012 5:05 AM
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Greek+political+earthquake+rattles+eurozone/6577705/story.html​

ATHENS — Greece stared into a chasm of uncertainty Monday after a stunning election shake-up by parties opposed to further austerity cuts, sending shockwaves through markets on fears of renewed eurozone turmoil.


Results of Sunday's elections showed that the two mainstream parties missed an absolute majority in parliament after their share of the vote was 32.1 per cent — more than halved from 2009 election — plunging the country into political uncertainty.


Instead, voters angry after two years of cuts handed parties against the terms of Greece's two international bailouts a stunning result — a total of 151 parliamentary seats between them, based on 99 per cent of votes counted.


The shock outcome throws Greece into disarray since top vote-getter Antonis Samaras of the New Democracy conservatives will find it very hard to form a government — once he is officially tasked to do so by the president later Monday.


Athens has already committed to finding in June another 11.5 billion euros ($15 billion) in savings over the next two years.


Since left-wing Pasok and New Democracy, which formed the outgoing coalition led by technocrat Prime Minister Lucas Papademos, will not have a legislative majority, the possibility now looms of fresh elections.


Pasok, which along with New Democracy has dominated Greek politics for nearly four decades, was even relegated to third place by the leftist Syriza, which more than tripled its share of the vote from 2009 to 16.7 per cent.


"The parties that signed the memorandum (with the EU and the IMF) are now a minority. The public verdict has de-legitimised them," Syriza head Alexis Tsipras said late Sunday, calling the election a "message of overthrow".


In total seven parties were set to enter parliament compared with five after the last election.


Neo-Nazi party Golden Dawn was also set to enter parliament for the first time since the end of the military junta in 1974, with 6.5-7.5 per cent of the vote, making it the sixth-biggest party in the 300-seat chamber with some 20 lawmakers.


Leader Nikos Michaloliakos said his party would fight against "world usurers" and the "slavery" of an EU-IMF loan agreement he likened to a "dictatorship".


"The time for fear has come," he said.


Independent Greeks, a new right-wing party set up by New Democracy dissident Panos Kammenos, is slated to become the fourth-biggest party with 33 seats followed by the communist KKE with 26 lawmakers.


The Democratic Left, a Europhile new leftist party, will hold 19 seats in the new-look chamber.


Both Pasok and ND have said they want the "troika" of the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank to cut Greece more slack in their two bailout deals worth worth 240 billion euros.


But with voters angry at the painful austerity cuts demanded in response, many of the smaller parties, including possible kingmaker Syriza, want to tear up the agreements.


The communist KKE party wants to leave the eurozone and the neo-Nazis say they want to stop servicing Greece's debts, an aim shared by Kammenos who advocates turning to Russia to prop up the country.


Panayotis Petrakis, economics professor at Athens University, expressed hope however that new French president-elect Francois Hollande "would prevent Europe treating us too harshly. There is still a little room for manoeuvre."


Petrakis told AFP that the most likely outcome was another "government of technocrats" headed again by outgoing premier Papademos, or fresh elections.


The result, plus the victory of the left-wing Hollande, sent the euro lower in Asian trading, dipping at one stage to to $1.2954, its weakest level since late January, while also slumping to 103.22 yen.


Japan's top government spokesman said Tokyo will "carefully monitor" how Europe reacts to the French election.


"The trajectory of the European economy greatly affects our economy," Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura told reporters, adding that Japan considered discussions between France and European powerhouse Germany "important".


Stocks on the DAX index in eurozone paymaster Germany plunged 2.2 per cent while France's stock market slid 1.57 per cent. Greece stocks plunged 7.6 per cent in early trade.


Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/busines...les+eurozone/6577705/story.html#ixzz1uBca01zH




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Dutch, it's one of the pieces of the grand failure of our times. Your hard work to bring the issues to us is much appreciated. I for one thank you.