WEATHER SPC: MODERATE RISK of Tornadoes and Large Hail for Kansas and E. Missouri Today

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 AM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI TODAY...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
TODAY.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
FAR WESTERN MISSOURI

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SURROUNDING THE GREATEST
RISK AREA...FROM WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KANSAS EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING TO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
DESTABILIZING LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO KANSAS. AS
THIS OCCURS...WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR AN EPISODE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK
AREA. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BEGIN AS
EARLY AS MIDDAY AND FEATURE A RISK FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES. BY THIS EVENING...THE SEVERE RISK WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..SMITH.. 04/27/2012

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html

NWS issued a tornado watch for most of the east half of Kansas about ten minutes ago, until 9pm CDT. The line is starting to build just east of Concordia and Salina, and extends south to just west of Wichita.

Currently it's cloudy, cool and windy in the east half of Kansas, with 15-20 mph wind and gusts to 35 or so. It has stayed cooler (66* here) in most of NE KS, but warmed up into the low 80's in a lot of the south part of the state. Fingers crossed that it stays cool--that tends to damp things down.

First tornado warning of the day, west of Concordia Kansas, indicated by radar but not confirmed by spotters. The NWS service guys are saying Wichita is out of the worst already as the storm line moves east, but twitter has storm chasers heavy in Emporia. Dampish/misty here in Lawrence, still windy.

Down in SE Kansas, it very breezy and beautiful. It just looks like storms are coming......

Latest Sit-Rep from SPC,



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0607
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/ERN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 194...

VALID 272044Z - 272145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 194 CONTINUES.

LARGE HAIL THREAT CONTINUES AND TORNADIC POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE
/ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR/...AS
SUPERCELL COVERAGE LIKELY INCREASES HERE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
FARTHER S...SHOWERS HAVE STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS S-CNTRL KS
AND UNCERTAINTIES EXIST OVER THE SUSTAINABILITY OF SEVERE TSTMS WITH
SRN EXTENT.

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 995 MB CYCLONE AROUND 40 N RSL WITH AN
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR EMP TO 20 E JLN...AND A
SURGING DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD NEAR ICT TO PNC. MOST PERSISTENT
CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS PRODUCED SEVERE HAIL IN PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL
KS...ALONG AND JUST N OF THE SURFACE FRONT. RELATIVELY GREATER HAIL
AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ALONG THE FRONT AS ADDITIONAL
SURFACE-BASED CELLS LIKELY PROPAGATE WITHIN THIS ZONE...BEFORE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH NRN EXTENT.

DISCRETE CELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE IN S-CNTRL KS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
INTENSIFY AS FORCED ASCENT TIED TO THE COMPACT NWRN KS/SWRN NEB
IMPULSE HAS REMAINED FARTHER N. MODIFIED 18Z LMN RAOB SUGGESTS THAT
ALTHOUGH MLCIN IS MINIMAL...LOW RH AOA 3000 FT AGL IS LIKELY
RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR WITH MIXED-LAYER
PARCELS. STILL...WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE
AND A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...ALONG WITH
WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE DESCENT AS THE KS/NEB IMPULSE DAMPENS...A CELL
OR TWO COULD BECOME SUSTAINED INTO SERN KS BY EARLY EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 04/27/2012

Dorema said:

Down in SE Kansas, it very breezy and beautiful. It just looks like storms are coming......

Click to expand...

It looks like its coming your way. Just be safe.

It's down to just a small line headed across NE Kansas now. Hearing distant rumbles of thunder, line is about 25 miles west of us currently. Couple severe thunderstorm warnings, but pretty much dying down and headed into Nebraska, Iowa, NW Missouri. Thank heavens we didn't warm up enough across the area to really give the storms any strength.