Watching the Comets of Late Summer/Fall: Elenin, Honda, Levy and others

willowlady said:

Serious question for the astronomer types: Were there any comets or asteroids in some kind of alignment on December 26, 2004? Perhaps one of you with access to those handy-dandy trajectory programs could look that up. The answer may or may not influence how quickly my hair ignites! Thanks.

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What happened on December 26 th? Is it something you can share with the thread so we can figure out if it was related to anything going on in space?

I found 4 comets that were able to be seen from telescopes in 2004.

C/2004 Q2 (Machholz) was the only that was close to Earth. It was .381 AU on Dec 26, 2004, it's closest approach was January 7, 2005 at .348 AU.
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=c/2004 Q2;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=0#orb
See the screengrabs below.

C/2001 Q4 (Neat) was 3.174 AU from Earth on Dec 26, 2004
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=C/2001 Q4;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=0#orb


C/2002 T7 (Linear) was 3.596 AU from Earth on Dec 26, 2004
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=C/2002 T7;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=0#orb

C/2004 F4 (Bradfield) was 4.221 AU from Earth on Dec 26, 2004
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=C/2004 f4;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=0#orb



There were no asteroids on that date, but there was some interesting ones I found in 2004 while looking for you, so I thought I'd go ahead and post them too.

Keep in mind Yu55 is 400 meters, and will be 307,577 km of Earth. The ones on this list that got really close were only 5 meters.

Mar 18 2004 - CLOSEST PREDICTED APPROACH
Asteroid 2004 FH passed within 42,000 km of the Earth's surface just before 22:00 Universal Time. Although this is not the nearest miss distance recorded for an asteroid(one was filmed passing through the Earth's atmosphere before heading back to space three decades ago), it is the closest approach of an asteroid that had been observed before the approach. The asteroid is believed to be about 30 metres in diameter. The miss distance is just above the geosynchronous satellite belt at a height of 36,000 km. When at its closest approach, asteroid 2004 FH was above the south atlantic ocean, about 1500 km west of South Africa.

Mar 31 - 2004 FU162 A VERY CLOSE ENCOUNTER
The closest encounter in March was made by asteroid 2004 FU162, which passed within 12,900 km of the centre of the Earth at 1536 UT. However, this fact was not realised until much later. The Linear team made four observations of this object between 0639 UT and 0724 UT. By the time the object was reported to the Minor Planet Center it had moved into the daytime sky and could not be observed again. Steve Chesley of JPL computed the orbit, but it was not until August 22 that the MPC issued an electronic circular designating the object as asteroid 2004 FU162. Its most probable size is around 5m diameter.


Dec 16 - 2004 XB45 THROUGH CISLUNAR SPACE
At 1912 UT asteroid 2004 XB45 passed 325,000 km from the Earth. Most probable size of this body is around 12m.

Dec 19 - 2004 YD5 CLOSE APPROACH
Asteroid 2004 YD5 came within geosynchronous orbital radius on December 19. Its closest distance to the centre of the Earth (33,800 km) was at 2038 UT. The most likely size for this asteroid is around 5m diameter. Thus, although it approached the Earth closer than did asteroid 2004 FH on March 18, it is only about 1/200 the mass (most probable mass is about 150 tons), and would have posed only a very minor local hazard had it actually hit the Earth. It is however, only the second object with a computed orbit to travel below geosynchronous orbit altitude.


Screengrabs: Macholz when it was the closest to Earth, and the 2nd one is Dec 26, 2004 as that is the date you requested.

HD

Ice Guy said:

Hey, I have read on several other threads and over at TOL rumors of DHS heads such as Napolitano giving warnings to friends that "something" is going to happen this year. They tell people to stock up on supplies. Possible that that they know something about these solar system visitors we do not?

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Welcome Ice Guy to TB and to this thread. :welc:

LoupGarou said:

So far that I have heard of, 7 comets, with a total of 38 pieces of "debris" behind them, and I am still trying to get a recent count of the asteroids, that will be visiting our area in the next 12 months.

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Marsh did a great job with the asteroid list below. Lots to look at, may take a while though!

marsh said:

Here is a table of near earth objects in the forthcoming year:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/neo....1AU&max_rows=100&action=Display+Table&show=1

What is also interesting is that on Feb 20 of this year, both 2011 CF66 and 2011 DX4 had a VERY close flyby with the earth. They are listed here on the current impact risks: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/ If you click on their alpha numeric name on that chart and then again at the top of the next chart, it will take you to a graphic of their orbit. .0073 AU for CF66 on Feb 20 and . 021 on Feb 20 for DX4. Pretty close. Did you hear anything about them? On Feb 19, the moon made its 5th closest pass by the earth in 2011 and there was supposedly a triple planetary conjunction of Mercury, Mars and Neptune on the 20th.

As far as I can tell, from 2/20-22 there was a volcanic eruption in the Philippines, a 5.9 earthquake in Russia; a 6.1 (actually 3 from 5.5) in New Zealand; a 4.5 in Baja; a 5.6 in Argentina; a 5.7 in Japan; a 6.2 in the Ionian sea?; a 5.3 in Indonesia?; a 5.2 in the Solomon Islands?; a 5.1 in the Gulf of Adan?; and a 5.1 in the Flores sea? http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/shakemap/list.php?y=2011 and http://earthquake-report.com/2011/02/20/earthquakes-list-february-20-2011/ From HD's posts, I haven't been able to correlate any of the cometary alignments on that same date.

From the near earth list, I can see "2009 BD" is .0091 AU on June 11, 2011. "2007 BD" is .0108 AU on Sept. 24, 2011. "2009 TM8" is .0027AU on October 18, 2011. http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2009 TM8;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=0#orb

"2000 YA" is .01 AU on December 24,2011. "2005 YU55" is .0022 AU on Nov. 9, 2011 (post 165). "2009 WN6" is
.0169 A.U. on Nov 6.

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marsh said:

http://earthsky.org/space/asteroid-apophis-due-to-pass-close-in-2029

"Asteroid Apophis will get to within 0.1 AU of Earth in January of the year 2013. In late 2012 and early 2013, Apophis will be observable using both optical and radar equipment. That will be a very exciting time for astronomers, and for the rest of us! Apophis is expected to be visible to the eye alone in the night skies of Europe, Africa, and western Asia, a first for an asteroid in recorded history (as far as we know). Yeomans said: 'In fact it will get beneath the geosynchronous satellites [which are 22,000 miles up], the same satellites that are probably used to beam your radio signals to your listeners. So that’s kind of exciting. But it won’t hit the Earth."

http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=Apophis;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=0#orb
.096 AU (8,923,757)on Jan 10 2013. This is the comet Huff Post is supposed to be doomin' on. It is not as close as the ones HD and I have cited. An AU is 92,955,807.27 miles.

The moon is .00257 A.U. (238,896 miles)
The distance from San Francisco to New York is about 2,906 miles

Distances of comets and asteroids are:
"2009 BD" is .0091 AU (845,897 miles) on June 11, 2011.
45P Honda is .0767 AU (7,129,710 miles) on August 18 2011
C/2009 p1 Garradd is 1.392 AU (129,394,483 miles) on August 22 2011
"2007 BD" is .0108 AU (1,003,922 miles) on Sept. 24, 2011.
Elenin is .232 AU (21,565,747 miles) on Oct 17, 2011
"2009 TM8" is .0027AU (250,980 miles) on October 18, 2011. A bit higher than the moon.
"2009 WN6" is .0169 A.U. (1,570,953 miles) on Nov 6, 2011
"2005 YU55" is .0022 AU (204,502 miles) on Nov. 9, 2011 (post 165). Less than the moon.
"2000 YA" is .01 AU (929,558 miles) on December 24,2011.
Levy is .0453 AU (4,210,898 miles) on Jan 7, 2012

The Tunguska event is believed to have been caused by the air burst of a large meteoroid or comet fragment at an altitude of 5–10 kilometres (3–6 mi) above the Earth's surface.

Asteroids around the same time (Aug 18) and AU (.0767) as Honda
2011 BL45 will be .105 AU
2010 JW34 will be .091 AU

Asteroids around the same time (Jan 7, 2012) and AU (.0453) as Levy
2003 AF23 will be .0426 AU
2008 SA will be .0601 AU
2005 BU will be .0716 BU

Elenin is more difficult because of her companions and tail. She is .232 AU on Oct 17. Here are asteroids in the neighborhood on Oct. 17
2009 UC .0554 AU
2010 GM65 .0699 AU
1990 UA .0846 AU
1998 SD9 .0899 AU
2009 DO111 .0982
2010 VU98 .1 AU
2005 CJ .103 AU
2003 FH .112 AU
2005 TQ45 .119 AU
1993 VD .146 AU
2009 HV2 .161 AU
LEVY .58 AU
Honda 1.078 AU

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WOW. Looks like I'm going to be having a lot of fun on the JPL site for a while

HD

I edited and added the miles. They line up on October 17th in a relative row like billiard balls.

What happened on December 26 th? Is it something you can share with the thread so we can figure out if it was related to anything going on in space?

HD - I believe willowlady may of been asking because of the tsunami that hit India, Indonesia, etc.

Thanks, HD. Answer to your question: December 26, 2004. 9.1 Sumatra earthquake, with massive tsunami following.

Good work on the comet/asteroids hanging around the vicinity on that date. Unfortunately, it means my pucker factor is going up for the coming events! Dang!

That was SIX years ago? Where does time go. I remember that like it was yesterday. No wonder I didn't associate the date!

The GRB was the main thing at the time, as Loup said. I was wondering how he could remember that so easily. It was a big deal back then, that there was this massive gamma ray burst right around that time.

But looks like Comet Macholz was also in the vicinity.

HD

Has anyone run calculations on where the moon will be during all these potential events? I just did some jockying around and it appears to me that the moon will be between us and Elenin at its closest to us. But I'm strictly an amateur at this sort of thing. Part of the reason I ask is that my DH had a dream towards the end of last year, which he wrote down in February of this year, that the dark side of our moon got hit by something big.

Not likely, I know.

The moon will be circling the earth and moving with it.

The moon is .00257 A.U. (238,896 miles) from earth.
Two of the asteroids will come very close to the moon:
"2009 TM8" is .0027AU (250,980 miles) on October 18, 2011. A bit higher than the moon.
"2005 YU55" is .0022 AU (204,502 miles) on Nov. 9, 2011 (post 165). Lower than the moon

YU55 is a large asteroid about 400 meters (1 meter is a little over 3 feet)

According to this website, http://library.thinkquest.org/J0112188/asteroids.htm, an asteroid from 200 yards to 1 mile in diameter " Could blast a crater up to 10 miles wide with worldwide environmental effects (for example, loss of season’s crops)" I don't know whether it would be larger on the moon with little atmosphere to burn it up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbit_of_the_Moon
"The Moon completes its orbit around the Earth in approximately 27.3 days (a sidereal month). The Earth and Moon orbit about their barycentre (common centre of mass), which lies about 4700 kilometres from Earth's centre (about three quarters of the Earth's radius). On average, the Moon is at a distance of about 385000 km from the centre of the Earth, which corresponds to about 60 Earth radii. With a mean orbital velocity of 1.023 km/s, the Moon moves relative to the stars each hour by an amount roughly equal to its angular diameter, or by about 0.5°. The Moon differs from most satellites of other planets in that its orbit is close to the plane of the ecliptic, and not to the Earth's equatorial plane. The lunar orbit plane is inclined to the ecliptic by about 5.1°, whereas the Moon's spin axis is inclined by only 1.5°."


Moon phases

http://lunaf.com/english/moon-phases/lunar-calendar-2011/10/18/ Waning Gibbons
http://lunaf.com/english/moon-phases/lunar-calendar-2011/11/09/ Waxing Gibbons

http://www.windows2universe.org/the_universe/uts/moon2.html
Phases of the Moon
"The diagram shows the Moon in different positions along its orbit around the Earth. The Sun is off in the distance, lighting the Earth-Moon system. At any position, half of the Moon is illuminated by the Sun (the light side of the Moon) and half is not (the dark side). Also, half of the Moon is visible to the Earth (the near side of the Moon) and half is not (the far side). As the Moon moves around the Earth, we can see different fractions of the illuminated half of the Moon.
"When the Moon is between the Earth and the Sun (1), the near side of the Moon is the dark side. The Moon cannot be seen. We call this New Moon, the beginning of a new cycle of lunar phases. When the Earth is between the Sun and the Moon (5), the near side is the light side. We call this Full Moon, even though we only see half the Moon.

"Halfway in between these times (3 & 7), only half of the near side of the moon is illuminated by the Sun. So we can only see one quarter of the Moon. We call these phases First and Third Quarters.

"All the phases of the Moon have special names which indicate how much of the illuminated Moon can be seen from Earth, and whether this part is going to grow or shrink."

____________'
It appears that when the congregation of the 13 comet pieces and 11+ asteroids happens on Oct 17, the moon will not be between us and the sun to protect us on that side. I do not, however know what sides of the earth the comets and asteroids will be approaching us - the solar or the dark side.

marsh said:

The moon will be circling the earth and moving with it.

The moon is .00257 A.U. (238,896 miles) from earth.
Two of the asteroids will come very close to the moon:
"2009 TM8" is .0027AU (250,980 miles) on October 18, 2011. A bit higher than the moon.
"2005 YU55" is .0022 AU (204,502 miles) on Nov. 9, 2011 (post 165). Lower than the moon

YU55 is a large asteroid about 400 meters (1 meter is a little over 3 feet)

According to this website, http://library.thinkquest.org/J0112188/asteroids.htm, an asteroid from 200 yards to 1 mile in diameter " Could blast a crater up to 10 miles wide with worldwide environmental effects (for example, loss of season’s crops)" I don't know whether it would be larger on the moon with little atmosphere to burn it up.

Click to expand...

Marsh, this pretty much confirm what my observations were. There are going to be a couple of asteroids come very close to the moon, and with all the Elenin stuff going on (tail, dragging attendant asteroids, etc.), we really won't know for sure whether any of their orbits get changed until it's much closer to us.

By the bye, how is it possible that Elenin has an orbit, when its eccentricity is greater than 1? Various sources cite the orbital period as 11,750 years. But if the orbit is a parabola, what is out there that sends it back our way? Never been much of a planet x, nibiru, brown dwarf believer, but my suspension of disbelief has gone up a bit over that little tidbit.

Here are pics of the path of 2009TM8 and YU55 both on 10/17/11 when TM8 crosses over earth's plane and 11/8/11 when YU55 crosses over.

According to the http://lunaf.com/english/moon-phases...ar-2011/10/18/ site, The moon should be at waning gibbons on 10/17 about 652,592 miles (405,502 km) from earth. 2009 TM8 will be .0027AU or 250,980 miles from earth.
The moon should be at waxing gibbons on 11/8 about 241,071 mi (387,966.74 km) from earth. YU55 will be .0079 AU or 734,352 miles from earth.

Here are the screen grabs

Here are the screen grabs of the various other asteroids on 10/17/11

Here are more asteroids

Here is the last asteroid with Elenin, Honda and Levy again - all on 10/17/11

Ok, I went back and aligned the earth better along the line and manually plotted them all on a grab shot of Elinin. Green is the earth. The blue are comets Elenin and Levy, the pink is the moon as near as I can figure it. The yellow are the 13 asteroids.

marsh said:

Ok, I went back and aligned the earth better along the line and manually plotted them all on a grab shot of Elinin. Green is the earth. The blue are comets Elenin and Levy, the pink is the moon as near as I can figure it. The yellow are the 13 asteroids.

Click to expand...

Thanks.... I think.

Ok, ...what if one or more of them asteroids/comets wollops the moon all at one time or in a series...could they send it into the earth or send it off into space? I know they could only cause the Earth to 'wobble a bit' because of its size, but the moon is only 1/6th the sized of Earth, so...?

2012 Predictions Happening Right Now

2012 Predictions Happening Right Now:

http://www.doomsdaytube.com/#2012-Extinction-Doomsday-Prophecies-Proved-By-Scientists

Long movie, but worth the watch re: Planet X. Ties into Bible, prophecy and scientific proof.

Cappy, you've tuned in to some of my concerns. The moon and it's orbit in relation to these comets may be the elephant in the room. I'm not really worried about a comet making the moon crash into earth. If that happens, we're all toast for sure. Can't prep for that one. I'm more worried about tidal effects if the moon takes a big hit. As in, when the waves stop, will we still have tides if the moon is knocked about? Looks like a lot of comets in our vicinity around that date. Not good!

Marsh, thanks for all your efforts. Trajectories will no doubt become clearer as summer wanes.

marsh said:

Ok, I went back and aligned the earth better along the line and manually plotted them all on a grab shot of Elinin. Green is the earth. The blue are comets Elenin and Levy, the pink is the moon as near as I can figure it. The yellow are the 13 asteroids.

Click to expand...

Revelations...
12:3 Another sign was seen in heaven. Behold, a great red dragon, having seven heads and ten horns, and on his heads seven crowns.

Could that really mean seven comets

I dunno Cap. The graphs are two dimensional. The asteroids and comets are three dimensional and not all on the same plane (where the colors change is the earth plane.)
These are the relative distances from earth on 10/17:

moon 652,592 miles from earth
2009 TM8 .0040 AU (371,823 mi) * note the distance figures are changed with new observations
2009 UC .0554 AU (5,149,751 mi)
2010 GM65 .0699 AU (6,497,610 mi)
1990 UA .0846 AU (7,864,061 mi)
1998 SD9 .0899 AU (8,356,727 mi)
2009 DO111 .0982 (8,663,481 mi)
2010 VU98 .1 AU (9,295,581 mi)
2005 CJ .103 AU (9,574,448 mi)
2003 FH .112 AU (10,411,050 mi)
2005 TQ45 .119 AU (11,061,741 mi)
1993 VD .146 AU (13,571,548 mi)
2009 HV2 .161 AU (14,965,884 mi)
2005 YU55 .191 AU (17,754,559 mi)
Elenin .232 AU (21,565,747 mi)
LEVY .58 AU (53,914,368 mi)
Honda 1.078 AU (100,206,360 mi)

We are apparently also traversing a meteor belt during that period of time. (Graph below. I believe it is the southern taurids.)
Orionids Oct 02 - Nov 11
Leo Minorids Oct 19 - Oct 27
Southern Taurids Sep 25 - Nov 27
Northern Taurids Sep 25 - Nov 27

They are all moving left to right here. If you go back and look at their orbits, some go "behind" the earth from the sun and so go "in front of" the earth toward the sun. The moon seems to be protected in the earth's "shadow" on 10/17. 1990 UA is moving toward it, but the relative distance is pretty far when you look at the table. I think the moon is moving counterclockwise here. 2009 TM8 is the closest. Its orbit goes "inside" the earth before crossing outside in November. The moon is moving toward the inside. But I don't really know. I am just plotting what the graphs tell me. I am not an astronomer.

The other part of this is the tail of Elenin and all her pieces and Levy. This is Elenin's closest day to earth. Did I read that the comet's tail points away from the sun? Then it might be less of a hazard than if it followed the path of the comet. If it does point away from the sun, Levy seems an interesting comet to watch at this time. The next weeks however, some of the cluster will be moving through Elenin's tail.

If nothing else, all those bodies moving in a correographed ballet may certainly affect solar interaction with the earth.

Cool

will all these comets be visable naked eye ???

Marsh,
the debris tail will follow the comet; the 'gas' tail will always be pointed away from the sun.

WillowLady,
Think about this,...some scientists say that life would not and cannot exist on this planet if not for the moon being here. If these comets/asteroids should knock it out of its orbit and it went wandering off somewhere...it'll take a while, but....'WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!*'


* Just kidding...I think...

Meteors. The only one I definitely know is in our vacinity on Oct. 17 is the southern Taurids Can't seem to find a similar graph to the one above that shows the realtionship of earth's orbit to the other ones.

http://www.imo.net/calendar/2011#lmi
http://www.amsmeteors.org/2010/12/2011-meteor-shower-list/

Major meteor shower:
Orionids: http://www.astronomia.org/shower?la=en&s=ORI

Minor Meteor Showers:
Leo Minorids http://www.astronomia.org/shower?la=en&s=LMI
Southern Taurids http://www.astronomia.org/shower?la=en&s=STA
Northern Taurids http://www.astronomia.org/shower?la=en&s=NTA

Weak meteor showers
October Ursa Majorids (OCU) Oct 12-Oct 19
Zeta Taurids (ZTA) Oct 12-Oct 17
Sigma Arietids (SSA) Oct 12-Oct 19
October Ursa Minorids (OUI) Oct 16-Oct 28

Stargazer4 said:

will all these comets be visable naked eye ???

Click to expand...

If you find out will you PM me? My specific interest (well, I'm interested in effects they'll have too) is in visilibity. With the naked eye, as discernible comets.

marsh said:

Ok, I went back and aligned the earth better along the line and manually plotted them all on a grab shot of Elinin. Green is the earth. The blue are comets Elenin and Levy, the pink is the moon as near as I can figure it. The yellow are the 13 asteroids.

Click to expand...

On this graphic that you posted, stupid question - are there that many asteroids all around us at all times? Is this weird that there are that many clustered around Earth that day? Is the rest of the "sky" filled with asteroids also, and this just makes it look like there's an unusual bunch clustered around Earth? To me, that's just an amazing picture, but maybe I'm not seeing it correctly.

WakeMeUp said:

2012 Predictions Happening Right Now:

http://www.doomsdaytube.com/#2012-Extinction-Doomsday-Prophecies-Proved-By-Scientists

Long movie, but worth the watch re: Planet X. Ties into Bible, prophecy and scientific proof.

Click to expand...

I just watched the whole thing! It's EXCELLENT! I am recommending taking the time to watch this. It puts everything together.


Thank you for sending it.

Here is the list of this year's near earth objects (asteroids) : http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/neo....1AU&max_rows=100&action=Display+Table&show=1

or http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/lists/Closest.html (scroll down and put page on 75%)

Here is a list of close comets: http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/lists/CloseApp.html (scroll down and put page on 75%)


You can see that April has a lot and October has a lot of asteroids. Other months have 4 or 5. I chose to chart all of October because of Elenin's fragmented tail and the fact that we are passing through it, making it a bit more hazardous. I don't know if this is an unusual year or we always are navigating through a "crowd" and just aren't aware of it. Most of these are millions of miles away, they just look crowded on the graph. The dots, of course, aren't proportionate either or you would likely not see them on the graph.

In my research, I did note a few incidences of realy close calls that were a complete surprise to astronomers. I think they are working on charting all the big objects, then the larger asteroids and some of the smaller stuff gets passed them.

duplicate - resized images

The sun is in solar max. The comets et al could cause further solar disturbance. Here is the 144 page National Academy of Science's Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report http://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12507

Looks like it will tell us all that we need to know about the possibile impacts of space weather. This will help us to prepare, rather than sit around dooming.

NASA's science page http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2007/ back in 2009 states:

January 21, 2009: Did you know a solar flare can make your toilet stop working?

That's the surprising conclusion of a NASA-funded study by the National Academy of Sciences entitled Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts. In the 132-page report, experts detailed what might happen to our modern, high-tech society in the event of a "super solar flare" followed by an extreme geomagnetic storm. They found that almost nothing is immune from space weather—not even the water in your bathroom.

The problem begins with the electric power grid. "Electric power is modern society's cornerstone technology on which virtually all other infrastructures and services depend," the report notes. Yet it is particularly vulnerable to bad space weather. Ground currents induced during geomagnetic storms can actually melt the copper windings of transformers at the heart of many power distribution systems. Sprawling power lines act like antennas, picking up the currents and spreading the problem over a wide area. The most famous geomagnetic power outage happened during a space storm in March 1989 when six million people in Quebec lost power for 9 hours: image.

According to the report, power grids may be more vulnerable than ever. The problem is interconnectedness. In recent years, utilities have joined grids together to allow long-distance transmission of low-cost power to areas of sudden demand. On a hot summer day in California, for instance, people in Los Angeles might be running their air conditioners on power routed from Oregon. It makes economic sense—but not necessarily geomagnetic sense. Interconnectedness makes the system susceptible to wide-ranging "cascade failures."

To estimate the scale of such a failure, report co-author John Kappenmann of the Metatech Corporation looked at the great geomagnetic storm of May 1921, which produced ground currents as much as ten times stronger than the 1989 Quebec storm, and modeled its effect on the modern power grid. He found more than 350 transformers at risk of permanent damage and 130 million people without power. The loss of electricity would ripple across the social infrastructure with "water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, fuel re-supply and so on."

"The concept of interdependency," the report notes, "is evident in the unavailability of water due to long-term outage of electric power--and the inability to restart an electric generator without water on site."

The strongest geomagnetic storm on record is the Carrington Event of August-September 1859, named after British astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare with his unaided eye while he was projecting an image of the sun on a white screen. Geomagnetic activity triggered by the explosion electrified telegraph lines, shocking technicians and setting their telegraph papers on fire; Northern Lights spread as far south as Cuba and Hawaii; auroras over the Rocky Mountains were so bright, the glow woke campers who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning. Best estimates rank the Carrington Event as 50% or more stronger than the superstorm of May 1921.

"A contemporary repetition of the Carrington Event would cause … extensive social and economic disruptions," the report warns. Power outages would be accompanied by radio blackouts and satellite malfunctions; telecommunications, GPS navigation, banking and finance, and transportation would all be affected. Some problems would correct themselves with the fading of the storm: radio and GPS transmissions could come back online fairly quickly. Other problems would be lasting: a burnt-out multi-ton transformer, for instance, can take weeks or months to repair. The total economic impact in the first year alone could reach $2 trillion, some 20 times greater than the costs of a Hurricane Katrina or, to use a timelier example, a few TARPs.

What's the solution? The report ends with a call for infrastructure designed to better withstand geomagnetic disturbances, improved GPS codes and frequencies, and improvements in space weather forecasting. Reliable forecasting is key. If utility and satellite operators know a storm is coming, they can take measures to reduce damage—e.g., disconnecting wires, shielding vulnerable electronics, powering down critical hardware. A few hours without power is better than a few weeks.

NASA has deployed a fleet of spacecraft to study the sun and its eruptions. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), the twin STEREO probes, ACE, Wind and others are on duty 24/7. NASA physicists use data from these missions to understand the underlying physics of flares and geomagnetic storms; personnel at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center use the findings, in turn, to hone their forecasts.

At the moment, no one knows when the next super solar storm will erupt. It could be 100 years away or just 100 days. It's something to think about the next time you flush.

Below: What if the May 1921 superstorm occurred today? A US map of vulnerable transformers with areas of probable system collapse encircled. A state-by-state map of transformer vulnerability is also available: click here. Credit: National Academy of Sciences.
Below: Above: A web of interdependencies makes the modern economy especially sensitive to solar storms. Source: Dept. of Homeland Security.

eens said:

I just watched the whole thing! It's EXCELLENT! I am recommending taking the time to watch this. It puts everything together.


Thank you for sending it.

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You're welcome . I was wondering when somebody would actually watch it... Everyone needs to see this...

Following up on the movie and solar impacts, here are some videos from credible sources on the magnetosphere:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFJRny2kVao&annotation_id=annotation_600209&feature=iv

I felt the movie you recommended was hype to the max. In my opinion, they twisted facts and inserted scenes from Hollywood disaster flicks to create hysteria so they could continually go back to Bible quotes on the end times. Not my cuppa tea, but I did glean info on the existence of the NAS study which I believe is of value.

marsh said:

Following up on the movie and solar impacts, here are some videos from credible sources on the magnetosphere:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFJRny2kVao&annotation_id=annotation_600209&feature=iv

I felt the movie you recommended was hype to the max. In my opinion, they twisted facts and inserted scenes from Hollywood disaster flicks to create hysteria so they could continually go back to Bible quotes on the end times. Not my cuppa tea, but I did glean info on the existence of the NAS study which I believe is of value.

Click to expand...

I watched it and I realized those scenes were from the movies, but I also found it good to watch and think about what could happen in the near future. It did not make me hysterical maybe I have a high tolerance.

The part I found most useful was how they mentioned many prophecies and how they match up with what could happen when/if PX, Niburu, Elenin...what ever you want to call it, passes by.

The research is all in one place, which I appreciate, and sums it up quite well. I guess it could be edited to be shorter w/o the movie scenes but I had time on my hands last night and could enjoy them again. Did I say ENJOY?? LOL.

I guess you could fast forward through them if you don't want to watch them.

WakeMeUp said:

You're welcome . I was wondering when somebody would actually watch it... Everyone needs to see this...

Click to expand...

I watched it and it could have been made a lot shorter, but it was good, everyone who can should check it out.

Is there any updated guesses as to whether the earth WILL go through the tail of Comet Elenin and, if so, how long that might last? My vague understanding of this discussion here is that, if the whole electrical/magnetic (am I saying that correctly?) connection of the universe is a valid theory, that being in the tail is only part of the issue? That additional things to consider are the possible interaction between the sun, earth and ALL the comets in the vicinity at the same time? And, that at the very least, this may not bode well for our electrical grid?

Could someone please correct my understanding if I have this wrong or am explaining it incorrectly? I tried to get a thread going at TOL - because I thought it was important enough for them to be aware of it also, but there is little interest there.

As I understand it, the earth's magnetosphere comes out of the magnetic pole like an umbrella. As the solar winds hit the umbrella, most of it passes around the earth. Sometimes a small amount gets through and circles around the earth (Van Allen belt?) causing the auroras. They have discovered a hole in the magnetosphere in the south Atlantic, which some scientists think may be an indication of a magnetic pole shift. Observations by some are that when a body passes in front of the earth between it and the sun, it shields the earth from the solar winds. Severe or erratic weather is most likely to occur when the body moves out from in front of the earth.

On October 17 when Elenin is closest, but in front of earth's orbital path, comet Levy will be between the earth and the sun. There are also 13 asteroids that are present which could also interfere at some time with the magnosphere and the dynamic of the solar winds. This could also affect sateallites and might affect the electrical grid in the US. The NAS report can explain the potential.

Loup can explain the physical dynamics best.

Caplock50 said:

WillowLady,
Think about this,...some scientists say that life would not and cannot exist on this planet if not for the moon being here. If these comets/asteroids should knock it out of its orbit and it went wandering off somewhere...it'll take a while, but....'WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!*'


* Just kidding...I think...

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Life would change dramatically. The moon affects the earths rotation, its orbit around the sun, the tides that many forms of life depend on etc etc. Free fall into Mad Max most likely.

WisconsinGardener said:

On this graphic that you posted, stupid question - are there that many asteroids all around us at all times? Is this weird that there are that many clustered around Earth that day? Is the rest of the "sky" filled with asteroids also, and this just makes it look like there's an unusual bunch clustered around Earth? To me, that's just an amazing picture, but maybe I'm not seeing it correctly.

Click to expand...

www.spaceweather.com scroll down and under the phrase "On April 5, 2011 there were 1215 potentially hazardous asteroids", under that is a list of near earth asteroids and the dates of their fly bys. That will give you a good idea.

Do any of these comets, etc fit into the schedule below?

2011-2012 Biblical Holidays Dates
(Based on aviv search finding no aviv before March 6th
making the new Biblical year start on April 4, 2011 New Moon)
Passover/Pesach April 18, 2011
1st Day of Unleavened Bread April 19, 2011
7th Day of Unleavened Bread April 25, 2011
Pentecost (Shavuot) June 12, 2011
Feast of Trumpets (Yom Teruah/Rosh Hashanah) September 30, 2011
Day of Atonement (Yom Kippurim) October 9, 2011
Feast of Tabernacles (Sukkot) October 14, 2011
Last Great Day (Shemini Atzeret) October 21, 2011

Click to expand...

energy_wave said:

Do any of these comets, etc fit into the schedule below?

Click to expand...

2011-2012 Biblical Holidays Dates
(Based on aviv search finding no aviv before March 6th
making the new Biblical year start on April 4, 2011 New Moon)
Passover/Pesach April 18, 2011
1st Day of Unleavened Bread April 19, 2011
7th Day of Unleavened Bread April 25, 2011
Pentecost (Shavuot) June 12, 2011
Feast of Trumpets (Yom Teruah/Rosh Hashanah) September 30, 2011
Day of Atonement (Yom Kippurim) October 9, 2011
Feast of Tabernacles (Sukkot) October 14, 2011
Last Great Day (Shemini Atzeret) October 21, 2011

Click to expand...

Not that these are on this years' feasts - but this research by Pastor Mark Biltz is never far from my mind when people talk about signs in the heavens...

Total Lunar Eclipse
4/15/2014
15 Nissan 5774
Pesach

Total Lunar Eclipse
10/8/2014
14 Tishrei 5775
Erev Succot

Total Solar Eclipse
3/20/2015
29 Adar 5775
Immediately precedes God’s declared start of [?? the end of the phrase was not on the chart from which I copied - Karnie]

Total Lunar Eclipse
4/4/2015
15 Nissan 5775
Pesach

Partial Solar Eclipse
9/13/2015
29 Elul 5775
Immediately precedes the start of the Jewish civil year

Total Lunar Eclipse
9/28/2015
15 Tishrei 5776
Succot

source: http://www.elshaddaiministries.us/stipulation.html

energy_wave said:

Do any of these comets, etc fit into the schedule below?

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The basic three comets are 45P Honda http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=45P Honda;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=0#orb

P/2006 Levy http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?ID=dK06T010;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=0#orb

and Elenin http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=Elenin;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=0#orb


You can browse their current trajectory ( Note Levy's projected trajectory on October 17 is now substantially different from the screen grab above. I can only conjecture that they have done some more recent observations that have refined their projections.) There is a slider on the immediate bottom of the picture that can line the object up with a line for reference. There is a slider at the right to adjust perspective. There is an advance and retreat bar on the left that will move the comet through the dates. Hit the center pause bar to stop it. There is another bar to the right to zoom and one to grab the graphic picture for saving. You can "game" all you want with your dates of significance. The 13 asteroids can also be entered in the search box then click on "orbit" to go to the graph. Happy plotting!