CRISIS KOREA WATCH: 12/28/2010 - 1/4/2011

China Connection

TB Fanatic
Yep, North Korea now wants peace!

Active Measures: The Russian Art of Disinformation
By Thomas Boghardt—Historian International Spy Museum, Washington, D.C.

http://www.spymuseum.org/from-spy/background-briefings/active-measures-russian-art-disinformation

KGB-manufactured lies are legendary and die hard. Take, for instance, one of the most notorious conspiracy theories regarding the Kennedy assassination. Joachim Joesten’s book Oswald: Assassin or Fall-Guy, published in 1964, claimed that Kennedy’s death was the result of a right-wing conspiracy involving the CIA—a myth famously endorsed by Oliver Stone’s movie JFK. Today, we know that Joesten’s publisher was a KGB front and the author a paid Soviet agent. Or look at the equally enduring rumor that the Pentagon developed the AIDS virus as a biological weapon at Fort Detrick, Maryland. First published on Independence Day in 1984, the tale had been planted by the KGB in an Indian newspaper and spread around the globe.

These and other Soviet “active measures” aimed to discredit the United States and “conquer world public opinion,” says retired KGB Major General Oleg Kalugin, formerly deputy chief of the KGB residency in Washington, DC. The KGB even set up a special department, Service A (“A” stood for active measures) for this purpose. But while the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, active measures remain part of Moscow’s foreign and domestic policy toolbox. If anything, Russia’s contemporary active measures program is more aggressive than the campaign run by the old KGB. In the Soviet Union, each measure had to be approved by the all-powerful Politburo, but intelligence oversight in today’s Russia is spotty at best, and the domestic security service, or FSB, operates “absolutely independently and totally unchecked,” according to Alexander Litvinenko, a former FSB officer who defected to Great Britain in 2000. Kalugin agrees: “In terms of viciousness, it got even worse” after the Cold War. The “terrorist” campaign of 1999 is a case in point.

In September 1999, a string of bombings in three Russian cities destroyed several apartment houses and cost over 300 lives. The government blamed Chechen terrorists, and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin launched another war against Chechnya, in the process boosting his own popularity and cementing the elite’s hold on power. However, on September 22, a resident of the city of Ryazan reported suspicious activities at his apartment building to the police who discovered a bomb in the basement. The next day, police officers arrested two terrorists—who promptly produced FSB identification and were released on orders from Moscow. Eventually, the FSB was forced to admit to having planted the bomb in a “training exercise,” but Moscow stubbornly refused to release the records of the so-called “exercise,” and the FSB’s explanation has been widely contested. “It is impossible to imagine it, even in your wildest dreams,” writes Litvinenko in his revealing book Blowing up Russia. Were the 1999 bombings acts of state-sponsored terrorism? “Unfortunately, it is credible,” says Kalugin. In an eerie but perhaps telling postscript to the tragedy, the liberal journalist and parliamentarian Yuri Shchekochikhin, who was relentlessly pursuing the Ryazan story, apparently died of poisoning in 2003.

Contemporary active measures are not confined to Russian soil. In fact, the recent controversy over cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammad may well have been choreographed by the SVR, Russia’s foreign intelligence service. The evidence is circumstantial but compelling. For one, Kalugin says, the KGB has a history of using Danish journalists to plant disinformation in the Western press. And Flemming Rose, the Jyllands Posten cultural editor who commissioned the cartoons in 2005, happened to serve for several years as a correspondent in Moscow where, Kalugin observes, he published a spate of obviously government-sponsored, anti-Chechen articles. According to Litvinenko and journalist Adlan Beno, Rose also happens to be married to the daughter of an ex-KGB officer. This does not per se make Rose a Russian agent, of course, but Russian intelligence may well have availed itself of this “in-house” connection to influence the Danish journalist. “This guy may have been used,” Kalugin says.

As the cartoon controversy spread across the globe, scores of brand new Danish flags turned up mysteriously all over the Middle East just in time to be set ablaze by enraged demonstrators at internationally televised protests. Predictably, Muslim anger quickly turned toward the West at large. “Some obscure Danish newspaper [prints these cartoons], and all the sudden across the Western world, everybody knows what’s it all about. Who organized it? Who ignited the process?” asks Kalugin, identifying a top suspect himself: The SVR. It wouldn’t have been the first active measure of this kind. When a Jewish militant went on a rampage at Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem in 1981, the KGB planned to stage an anti-American Muslim rally in New Delhi, says Kalugin. At 5,000 rupees, the proposed operation was ridiculously cheap

Kalugin is not alone in suspecting Moscow’s hand behind the recent cartoon controversy. Says Peter Earnest, a former senior CIA clandestine service officer who served in the Middle East: “As a way of fueling anti-western feelings among Muslims, publishing of cartoons ridiculing the Prophet Mohammad in an obscure Danish journal was a no-brainer, if it was done deliberately, particularly if you are prepared to use resources elsewhere to keep the controversy alive and pulsating.” And what’s in it for Moscow? The Kremlin seeks to compromise and undermine the United States and “make Russia look [like] an alternative” international partner to Middle Eastern nations, says Kalugin. Emphasizing the continuity between Soviet and Russian active measures, he concludes: “It’s a tradition, it’s not something new. That’s important to see the past projected onto the present—and the future.”
 

jpigott

Veteran Member
What a rosy picture this paints . . .

Will Hu-Obama summit signal restart of 6-way talks?

1/1/11

The Washington summit between Chinese President Hu Jintao and U.S. President Barak Obama, scheduled for Jan. 19, is getting much attention as the bellwether to where the next step surrounding the Korean Peninsula will be.

The issue at hand is when the six-party talks will resume.

The local Hankyoreh newspaper conducted its survey for New Year on the Korean Peninsula with 28 experts, including former government officials. It said only half of them see that the summit would serve as a prelude to the restart of the six-nation nuclear disarmament talks.

Thirteen of the questioned said there is such a possibility, while the another 13 said nay.

The newspaper said the year 2011 will be of “much more uncertain and gloom” than any other previous years before.

To start off, it said, no experts offered a positive outlook for 2011. “The inter-Korean tension will remain unchanged during the Lee Myung-bak administration,” it cited the analysts as saying
.

The tension on the Korean Peninsula, essentially, is two Korea’s issue. But with the deeply formed distrust between them, the two Koreas have lost the drive to take the initiative on the matter.

Under this circumstance, the role of the other two big stakeholders is increasingly important, it said, namely the United States and China.

In the survey, Prof. Kim Young-soo at Sogang University pointed out that as long as the U.S. and China are competing for hegemony in the region, any “optimistic prospect is possible only in the brain.”

Prof. Park Sun-seong at Dongguk University even went further to say it is possible that the two big stakeholders will collide strategically in the region in the New Year
.

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news...113_79002.html
 

Catbird

Inactive
Apparently, the Carl Vinson isn't at Guam anymore as this pic on the Flicker page for PACFLT shows.




"PACIFIC OCEAN (Jan. 1, 2011) USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) cruises through the Pacific Ocean. Carl Vinson and Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 17 are on a deployment to the U.S. 7th Fleet area of responsibility. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Christopher K. Hwang / RELEASED)"
 

Catbird

Inactive
An example of Chinese diplomacy in action.

From: http://world.kbs.co.kr/english/news/news_In_detail.htm?No=78372&id=In

"China Sought to Drop Issue of NK Provocations

Update 2010-12-31 11:38:17

Chinese government officials were found to have sought to leave unresolved the issue of North Korea’s military provocations when they visited Seoul shortly after the North’s artillery attack on South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island last month.

A senior government official in Seoul said Friday that China’s top nuclear negotiator, Wu Dawei, told Korean officials last month that sometimes it’s better to leave things unsettled.

Wu, who made the comment after Korean officials raised issue with the North’s artillery attack, was accompanying State Councilor Dai Bingguo on a visit to Seoul last month shortly after the North’s shelling.

Wu reportedly said that all things cannot be resolved by raising issue with them and that sometimes it’s better to leave things as they are.

In response, Korean officials asked if China assumes such a stance when handling issues related to Taiwan and Tibet, to which the Chinese officials did not give an answer.

Wu was found to have made similar comments on the sinking of the “Cheonan” naval ship."
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
An example of Chinese diplomacy in action.

From: http://world.kbs.co.kr/english/news/news_In_detail.htm?No=78372&id=In

"China Sought to Drop Issue of NK Provocations

Update 2010-12-31 11:38:17

Chinese government officials were found to have sought to leave unresolved the issue of North Korea’s military provocations when they visited Seoul shortly after the North’s artillery attack on South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island last month.

A senior government official in Seoul said Friday that China’s top nuclear negotiator, Wu Dawei, told Korean officials last month that sometimes it’s better to leave things unsettled.

Wu, who made the comment after Korean officials raised issue with the North’s artillery attack, was accompanying State Councilor Dai Bingguo on a visit to Seoul last month shortly after the North’s shelling.

Wu reportedly said that all things cannot be resolved by raising issue with them and that sometimes it’s better to leave things as they are.

In response, Korean officials asked if China assumes such a stance when handling issues related to Taiwan and Tibet, to which the Chinese officials did not give an answer.

Wu was found to have made similar comments on the sinking of the “Cheonan” naval ship."

If the RoK officials actually said that to Wu, then things are as bad as they can get short of shooting, even if the comment was meant for public consumption only. Those are 3rd rail subjects for Beijing and should be a warning light to them as to the table stakes in this "game".

Also on a related topic, since whatever tech the PRC has the DPRK will get benefit of.....

Posted for fair use......
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/EU_could_end_China_arms_embargo_early_2011_report_999.html

EU could end China arms embargo early 2011: report
by Staff Writers
Brussels (AFP) Dec 30, 2010

A European Union arms embargo clamped on China in 1989 following the Tiananmen crackdown could be lifted in early 2011, Brussels sources told Thursday's edition of France's Le Figaro daily.

The lifting of the embargo on all lethal weapons "could happen very quickly," a source close to EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton told the paper.

An EU diplomat in Brussels refused to confirm the claim, but acknowledged that Ashton recommended as much in a report presented at a December 16-17 summit to the bloc's 27 national leaders.

Ashton's report described the embargo as "a major impediment" to Europe-China security and foreign policy cooperation.

"The EU should assess its practical implication and design a way forward," it concluded.

Lifting the embargo would nevertheless require unanimity across EU member states.

Spain recently tried to persuade opponents to lift the embargo, and the issue can be expected to come up again in mid-January when EU foreign ministers' hold informal talks in Hungary.

"We will look into this," said the diplomat.

The issue has re-emerged following talks between China and the EU in Beijing focused on economic and trade cooperation, at which China indicated it would support heavily indebted eurozone economies struggling to raise finance on open markets at affordable interest rates.

An EU official insisted there was "nothing of an exchange or negotiation whatsoever" involving the arms embargo, stressing that there "nothing given in exchange for that support."

Chinese ambassasor Song Zhe recently said "it doesn't make any sense to maintain the embargo," arguing that "we will develop our own arms even faster" and claiming that arms companies in Europe "are losing out."

Europe was divided on the issue when it was discussed at a meeting of foreign ministers in September, with some mooting the idea of a conditional lifting of the embargo.

Conditions included improved ties with Taiwan, an amnesty for arrests linked to the Tiananmen crackdown, and a calendar for the ratification of the convention on civil and political rights.

The Figaro said that the Netherlands, Britain and, to a lesser extent, Germany, had each lowered their opposition to lifting the embargo.

But another diplomatic source said Britain in particular remained set against alongside the US and Japan.

Chinese troops and tanks ended weeks of pro-democracy protests in Beijing central Tiananmen Square on June 4, 1989, killing hundreds if not thousands of demonstators.
 

Catbird

Inactive
An entry on the 'Good Friends USA' blog, which also publishes the newsletter 'North Korea Today', gives some pretty good insight into how the food distribution system works in the DPRK.

From: http://www.goodfriendsusa.blogspot.com/


"...Kwangduk Farm in Baekam County Receives Food Distribution in its Entirely this Fall

The Kwangduk Labor District farms in Baekam County, Ryanggang Province, have finished their food distribution for this fall. Although the amount of food distribution differed because each farmer had different number of days he worked through the year, it was confirmed that they had generally received approximately 8 months’ worth of food: five months’ worth of potatoes and three months’ worth of mixed grains. Until the early October, the residents worried, believing they will not even receive half if they set aside rice and pork meat to support military. In addition, many households have ruined their individual small land patch farming due to the frost damages this year as well as last year. Because of these circumstances, nine out of ten farm members were nervous about how much food they can receive from the farm.

According to Han JooHyuk (alias) who is an official of the Provincial Party, military rice was not originally collected in Ryanggang Province, Jagang Province and North and South Hamgyong Province, because they contributed only a small portion of the national grain production. However, due to the lack of military rice, the military exerted pressure on the local parties, so the local parties have been collecting the military rice. But as the food situation had gotten worse and the complaints of the farm members were raised, they got the attention of the Central Party. Finally on October 30th, the Central Party announced that they will stop mandating the collection of military rice, at which every farm member was delighted. If they had had to give up half of their food allotment for the military, they would have had to last one full year with only four-months’ worth of food; but now, they have the full eight-months’ worth of food.

Kaechuk Labor District in Daehongdan County Returns Military Rice

After the announcement of discontinuing military rice remittance obligations, the Kaechuk Labor District farms in Daehongdan County, Ryanggang Province have returned the military rice and allotted pork meats that it had taken in advance. Most of the farm members were pleased, feeling they have retrieved the food that has been forcibly taken away. However, the farm members who raised pigs in advance at home and submitted pork meat to support military to the work unit became unhappy. They had submitted a whole pig they have raised according to the practice of volunteering a pig every year as they expected to receive money for the pork meat or corresponding amount of potatoes from other farm members.

However, they sustained a severe loss because they could not receive potatoes from other farm members in lieu of the meat even though they had already given over a pig. As the plan to stock up on their share of potatoes shattered, the affected farmers vented their rage to their supervisors saying, “We lost a pig. Compensate us for the price of a pig quickly.” Some farmers in Sahmbong Farm who had also suffered a similar loss assaulted their supervisors in anger."
 

jpigott

Veteran Member
If the RoK officials actually said that to Wu, then things are as bad as they can get short of shooting, even if the comment was meant for public consumption only. Those are 3rd rail subjects for Beijing and should be a warning light to them as to the table stakes in this "game".

This exchange between Chinese and S. Korean diplomats in the wake of the Nov. 23rd DPRK attack would certainly help explain the very hard line position the ROK has taken since Nov 23rd.

Telling the ROK to just suck it up and turn the other cheek signals to me either China is unwilling or unable to restrain the DPRK, which is a serious deviation from recent history. Not good news for stability on the peninsula.
 

Catbird

Inactive
If the RoK officials actually said that to Wu, then things are as bad as they can get short of shooting, even if the comment was meant for public consumption only. Those are 3rd rail subjects for Beijing and should be a warning light to them as to the table stakes in this "game".

JP:
This exchange between Chinese and S. Korean diplomats in the wake of the Nov. 23rd DPRK attack would certainly help explain the very hard line position the ROK has taken since Nov 23rd.

Telling the ROK to just suck it up and turn the other cheek signals to me either China is unwilling or unable to restrain the DPRK, which is a serious deviation from recent history. Not good news for stability on the peninsula.

I agree with both thoughts. And, kudos to the ROK for having the will to speak so plainly in a "diplomatic exchange". That says something as well.
 
Active Measures: The Russian Art of Disinformation
By Thomas Boghardt—Historian International Spy Museum, Washington, D.C.

http://www.spymuseum.org/from-spy/background-briefings/active-measures-russian-art-disinformation

KGB-manufactured lies are legendary and die hard. Take, for instance, one of the most notorious conspiracy theories regarding the Kennedy assassination. Joachim Joesten’s book Oswald: Assassin or Fall-Guy, published in 1964, claimed that Kennedy’s death was the result of a right-wing conspiracy involving the CIA—a myth famously endorsed by Oliver Stone’s movie JFK. Today, we know that Joesten’s publisher was a KGB front and the author a paid Soviet agent. Or look at the equally enduring rumor that the Pentagon developed the AIDS virus as a biological weapon at Fort Detrick, Maryland. First published on Independence Day in 1984, the tale had been planted by the KGB in an Indian newspaper and spread around the globe.

These and other Soviet “active measures” aimed to discredit the United States and “conquer world public opinion,” says retired KGB Major General Oleg Kalugin, formerly deputy chief of the KGB residency in Washington, DC. The KGB even set up a special department, Service A (“A” stood for active measures) for this purpose. But while the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, active measures remain part of Moscow’s foreign and domestic policy toolbox. If anything, Russia’s contemporary active measures program is more aggressive than the campaign run by the old KGB. In the Soviet Union, each measure had to be approved by the all-powerful Politburo, but intelligence oversight in today’s Russia is spotty at best, and the domestic security service, or FSB, operates “absolutely independently and totally unchecked,” according to Alexander Litvinenko, a former FSB officer who defected to Great Britain in 2000. Kalugin agrees: “In terms of viciousness, it got even worse” after the Cold War. The “terrorist” campaign of 1999 is a case in point.

In September 1999, a string of bombings in three Russian cities destroyed several apartment houses and cost over 300 lives. The government blamed Chechen terrorists, and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin launched another war against Chechnya, in the process boosting his own popularity and cementing the elite’s hold on power. However, on September 22, a resident of the city of Ryazan reported suspicious activities at his apartment building to the police who discovered a bomb in the basement. The next day, police officers arrested two terrorists—who promptly produced FSB identification and were released on orders from Moscow. Eventually, the FSB was forced to admit to having planted the bomb in a “training exercise,” but Moscow stubbornly refused to release the records of the so-called “exercise,” and the FSB’s explanation has been widely contested. “It is impossible to imagine it, even in your wildest dreams,” writes Litvinenko in his revealing book Blowing up Russia. Were the 1999 bombings acts of state-sponsored terrorism? “Unfortunately, it is credible,” says Kalugin. In an eerie but perhaps telling postscript to the tragedy, the liberal journalist and parliamentarian Yuri Shchekochikhin, who was relentlessly pursuing the Ryazan story, apparently died of poisoning in 2003.

Contemporary active measures are not confined to Russian soil. In fact, the recent controversy over cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammad may well have been choreographed by the SVR, Russia’s foreign intelligence service. The evidence is circumstantial but compelling. For one, Kalugin says, the KGB has a history of using Danish journalists to plant disinformation in the Western press. And Flemming Rose, the Jyllands Posten cultural editor who commissioned the cartoons in 2005, happened to serve for several years as a correspondent in Moscow where, Kalugin observes, he published a spate of obviously government-sponsored, anti-Chechen articles. According to Litvinenko and journalist Adlan Beno, Rose also happens to be married to the daughter of an ex-KGB officer. This does not per se make Rose a Russian agent, of course, but Russian intelligence may well have availed itself of this “in-house” connection to influence the Danish journalist. “This guy may have been used,” Kalugin says.

As the cartoon controversy spread across the globe, scores of brand new Danish flags turned up mysteriously all over the Middle East just in time to be set ablaze by enraged demonstrators at internationally televised protests. Predictably, Muslim anger quickly turned toward the West at large. “Some obscure Danish newspaper [prints these cartoons], and all the sudden across the Western world, everybody knows what’s it all about. Who organized it? Who ignited the process?” asks Kalugin, identifying a top suspect himself: The SVR. It wouldn’t have been the first active measure of this kind. When a Jewish militant went on a rampage at Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem in 1981, the KGB planned to stage an anti-American Muslim rally in New Delhi, says Kalugin. At 5,000 rupees, the proposed operation was ridiculously cheap

Kalugin is not alone in suspecting Moscow’s hand behind the recent cartoon controversy. Says Peter Earnest, a former senior CIA clandestine service officer who served in the Middle East: “As a way of fueling anti-western feelings among Muslims, publishing of cartoons ridiculing the Prophet Mohammad in an obscure Danish journal was a no-brainer, if it was done deliberately, particularly if you are prepared to use resources elsewhere to keep the controversy alive and pulsating.” And what’s in it for Moscow? The Kremlin seeks to compromise and undermine the United States and “make Russia look [like] an alternative” international partner to Middle Eastern nations, says Kalugin. Emphasizing the continuity between Soviet and Russian active measures, he concludes: “It’s a tradition, it’s not something new. That’s important to see the past projected onto the present—and the future.”

Very interesting read!

Regarding North Korea:

"U.S. policy for dealing with the North Korean situation is inadequate because it focuses on North Korea in isolation as a rogue state, and naively seeks help from the Russians and Chinese to solve the problem. The North Korea situation and any future nuclear incident, wherever it occurs, must be seen against the background of Sino-Soviet 'convergence' strategy: the interaction of Russian and Chinese policy and the moves they make to derive strategic gains from critical situations should be closely studied."

- Anatoliy Golitsyn, the highest ranking KGB defector to the West, The Perestroika Deception, 1990, p.46
 

jpigott

Veteran Member
Kim Jong-il hides himself underground for fear of US F-22 Raptors

1/2/11

North Korean leader hid himself in an underground bunker for nine days during the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercise off the west coast from Nov. 28 to Dec. 1 last year for fear of F-22 Raptors of the U.S. Air Force, the Joongang Sunday magazine reported.

The F-22 Raptor is a fifth-generation supermaneuverable fighter aircraft equipped with stealth technology. The U.S. aircraft carrier George Washington participated in the joint exercise.

A defense ministry official said on condition of anonymity that Kim hid to protect himself from an attack by the F-22 Raptors, called an “air dominance fighter,” which participated in the exercise, according to the report.

Another official said, “F-22 Raptors, accompanied by in-flight tankers, were on standby in mid-air over the Korean peninsula during the joint exercise.”

Their mission was to attack should North Korea retaliate by flying MiG jet fighters, he added.

F-22s takeoff from U.S. air bases in Guam and Alaska or the Kadena Air Base in Japan.

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news...116_79004.html
 

China Connection

TB Fanatic
Yep, Dear, Dear , Dear leader of old was born in Russia and trained in Russia. Despite this all the talk is of China. He did one of his trips to Russia in the last year. Have a read and see that he is well accepted in Russia. This upcoming war isn't going to be as simple as most think.

.....................................................................................

Fear of flying forces Kim Jong Il to use fleet of private trains

Leo Lewis, Asia Business Correspondent

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6910116.ece

Kim Jong Il, the enigmatic North Korean despot and pathologically nervous flyer, has created a magnificent fleet of railway trains to convey him safely between his Pyongyang palace and secret mountain lair.

The six trains, made up of 90 heavily armoured carriages with luxury interiors, are believed to serve 19 stations across the Stalinist regime — all for the exclusive personal use of Mr Kim and a handful of his closest retinue.

Satellite imaging suggests that the trains never travel very much faster than 37mph (60km/h) across the country. They are also organised to ensure the survival of Mr Kim should anyone attempt to attack him. A train precedes the convoy to check for mines and other threats while another filled with bodyguards follows behind that of the Dear Leader.

The glimpse into Mr Kim’s elaborate travel arrangements is understood to come from Seoul and Washington intelligence reports, the results of which emerged in the South Korean media yesterday. According to those reports, the trains are fitted out with conference suites, reception halls, opulent living quarters and satellite communications centres; an entire mobile palace from which Mr Kim can continue to command the hermit nation.
Related Links


Tracks for the trains join lines that lead to the border with China in the north and are the route through which Mr Kim leaves for his sporadic trips abroad.

Mr Kim’s fear of flying is well known, though his nerves over traveling by train may also be justified. A massive explosion erupted in 2004 after overhead cables ignited a goods train carrying chemicals and fuel oil. The incident claimed at least 160 lives but, intriguingly for intelligence sources, also took place in a spot that Mr Kim’s train had traveled through hours earlier.

Previously gathered intelligence reports suggest that Mr Kim maintains about 15 palaces and retreats, several of which appear to be reachable only by underground railway.

The prime residence near Pyongyang, which includes a racetrack and a giant water-slide, has its own underground station invisible to spy satellites. Equally puzzling is the vast Hwangju palace — the family’s mountain retreat, where several railway lines disappear from the surface into tunnels.

The main purpose of the trains is believed to be the execution of the Dear Leader’s punishing domestic schedule inspecting factories and military facilities — official duties that he appears to perform still with vigor despite reports that he suffered from a debilitating stroke last year.
 

jpigott

Veteran Member
U.S.-China summit unlikely to produce agreement on six-party talks: S. Korean official

SEOUL, Jan. 2 (Yonhap) -- A U.S.-China summit set for later this month is unlikely to produce an agreement on resuming six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear programs as Washington is against convening talks for talks' sake, a South Korean official said Sunday.

U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao are scheduled to meet in Washington on Jan. 19. North Korea is expected to be a key topic for the summit amid Chinese calls for restarting six-party talks to discuss tensions over Pyongyang's provocations and nuclear programs.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news...003200315.HTML
 

Catbird

Inactive
These two articles discuss the role of Kim Jr. in the coming year. If we're still doing a Korea thread at this time next year, we can look back and see how accurate the predictions were. ;)


From: http://www.koreaherald.com/national/Detail.jsp?newsMLId=20101231000545

"North Korea may continue provocations in 2011

2010-12-31 17:37

Seoul’s think tanks say third nuclear test possible amid succession process

North Korea’s daring military provocations against the South in 2010 have left many wondering what the reclusive state sought to gain from them and whether there will be further attacks.

Ostensibly, the artillery shootings on Yeonpyeong Island on Nov. 23 and the torpedoing of the naval ship Cheonan on March 26 stem from the North’s reluctance to accept the Northern Limit Line, the maritime border drawn by the United Nations Command at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.

But many experts here say that the shaky succession process from North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to his youngest son is most accountable for the country’s military adventurism.

Three months have passed since Pyongyang made Kim Jong-un, believed to be in his late 20s, a four-star general and vice chairman of the central military committee of the North Korean Workers’ Party.

“Kim Jong-un will be given additional key posts in the party and the military in 2011 to speed up the substantial power transfer,” said Cheong Seong-chang, senior fellow of the inter-Korean relations studies program at Sejong Institute.

The young successor is also expected to visit China next year.

Chinese President Hu Jintao invited “North Korea’s new leadership” to Beijing
in a message delivered by Zhou Yongkang, a senior official of the Communist Party of China, during his meeting with Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang last October.

But this doesn’t mean Jong-un’s takeover will be without bumps.

Whereas Kim Jong-il had three decades to garner the party’s support and build on his political clout before succeeding his father Kim Il-sung in 1994, Jong-un was rushed into the position of heir apparent due to his father’s failing health.

The general North Korean people reportedly have little confidence in the junior Kim because of his young age and lack of experience.

Many North Koreans believe that Kim Jong-un masterminded the Nov. 23 artillery attack, despite Pyongyang’s propaganda that the South provoked it, and blame him for the rising price of rice and foreign exchange rates, U.S.-based Radio Free Asia said last month, citing sources in the North.

Mid-level government officials and intellectuals see Kim Jong-un as a child and have no faith in his future, the sources said.

North Korea watchers here believe that Pyongyang is escalating military tensions in an attempt to seek national unity and stabilize the third-generation power shift amid public unrest over deepening economic woes.


Discontent and criticism of the undemocratic and regressive manner of the North’s third-generation succession are prevalent not only among the North Korean power elite but also the general public,” Korea University professor Yu Ho-yeol of North Korean studies said in a recent seminar.

“Pyongyang chose extreme military provocation against the South in a bid to solidify the father-to-son succession framework and seek internal unity.”

Lim Jae-chun, another professor at Korea University, noted that the current circumstances are much more disadvantageous for the power transfer to Kim Jong-un compared to when Kim Jong-il was taking steps to take over his father.

The North has lost much of its income from arms sales and other illegal trade under tightened international sanctions and the country’s currency reform in late 2009, believed to be the work of Jong-un, resulted in inflation and more poverty.

“North Korea’s latest belligerence has to do with Kim Jong-il’s anxiety to turn the tables before he dies to lessen the burden on his son,” Lim said.

“It is likely to show greater hostility with increased frequency as it demands economic assistance and a peace treaty with the U.S.”


Seoul’s state-funded think tanks project that the North will continue with local provocations, including a possible invasion of the five islands near the western sea border in addition to a third nuclear test in the coming year.

The Institute for National Security Strategy, an offshoot of the National Intelligence Service, said in an annual report last weekend that the North may strike anywhere, by surprise, from submarines to frontline outposts.

The Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security said the North could conduct its third atomic test as it wants “to seek improvement in its nuclear weapons production capability” and “keep military tension high” while promoting the status of Kim Jong-un as its next leader.

Both the IFANS and the INSS said that while ramping up attacks on the South, the North will try to resume the stalled six-nation talks in pursuit of outside aid.

Cha Doo-hyun, chief of North Korean military research at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, said Pyongyang could try a “new type of provocation” around March.

“There is a possibility of the North provoking again around March in a way that makes it hard for us to take self-defensive measures, stirring controversy over our right to preventive self-defense,” Cha said in another recent seminar.

He said the North is likely to attack from an area that is difficult to locate or strike back.
"


AND
Excerpts from: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2011/01/116_78997.html

"12-31-2010 19:15

NK to step up power transfer, seek foreign aid


...Pyongyang’s moves, analysts say, will be efforts to inch towards its goal of emerging as a “strong and prosperous” country by 2012, the centennial of the birth of its founder, Kim Il-sung.

“Kim Jong-il will maintain control over foreign affairs and the nuclear program in 2011, but Kim Jong-un will become the center of power,” Cheong Seong-chang, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, told The Korea Times.

The junior Kim, thought to be no older than 28, stepped into the spotlight in September, when he was elevated to four-star general and vice chairman of the ruling party’s central military commission.

Experts say Jong-un’s steps resemble those of Kim Jong-il but that the process is moving far faster due to the reportedly flagging health of the “Dear Leader.”

This has sparked expectations that Jong-un, thought to be no older than 28, will soon be elevated to vice head of the powerful National Defense Commission.

“The promotion would poise him to take a high post in the party secretariat in 2012,” Park Young-ho, senior fellow at the government-affiliated Korea Institute of National Unification, said. “That would mean he would take the post of official successor over the power elite of the North Korean political system.”

Park said Kim could also take the reins of the (North) Korean People’s Army. Most anticipate him to garner additional posts while currying favor with the regime’s top brass, eventually wielding power equal to his father.

Cheong sees the possibility of a more rapid transfer, predicting the young heir may join the Politburo of the party’s central committee and become secretary of its organization bureau within 2011.


“Kim Jong-un will come to hold authority over most national affairs,” he said. “Complete succession is possible by next year.”

...Yoo Ho-yeol, an expert at Korea University, said that through the shelling, Pyongyang achieved its goal of proving Jong-un’s military ability to his internal audience ― and will now move to secure aid though the talks.

“They have no alternative at this point but to come back to the talks,” he said. “They need economic assistance from the United States and South Korea to prepare for the target year of 2012.”


...the talks could resume sometime after the first quarter of the year, he predicted.

...Still, many are pessimistic that the talks will lead to a denuclearized Korean peninsula, expecting the North to maintain its drive to be recognized as a nuclear power.

“They are willing to discuss the freezing of their nuclear program in exchange for large monetary payments,” Andrei Lankov, an expert at Kookmin University, said. “In other words, they will agree not to produce more nukes if the United States and other major players agree to pay them for this.”


If Washington and Seoul do not come back to the talks, analysts say more provocative behavior from the North could be around the corner.

A recent report released by the Institute for National Security Strategy, run by the National Intelligence Service, said the North will to strive to increase it asymmetric warfare capabilities and might attack vessels, frontline observation posts or even defectors living in the South.

A third nuclear test could also be in the cards, the report said.


“Their main motivation (in provoking) is rational and clear,” Lankov said. “They want to demonstrate that for Seoul it would be better to pay them than risk the consequences.”

Professor Yoo said that the regime could also attempt to drive a wedge into South Korean public opinion in the run up to the 2012 presidential polls by favoring opposition parties and inviting criticism of Lee’s Grand National Party...
 
http://www.arirang.co.kr/News/News_View.asp?nseq=110996&code=Ne2&category=2

Regarding the March sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan and North Korea's shelling of Yeonpyeong Island last month Chinoy said the reclusive regime is warning that "Seoul would pay a high price for its own hard line."

He also added recent cables released by WikiLeaks indicate that South Korea strongly believes its tough policy will work since North Korea is on the verge of collapse but in reality foreign aid workers and recent American visitors to the North reported no signs of political unrest in North Korea.

nevermind that they see only what they are shown :rolleyes:
 

Catbird

Inactive
Heads up......

Was looking around over at Military Photos.net and came across a thread talking about the Japanese Foreign Minister stating that he wants to pursue a formal security alliance with South Korea.

I can't get the news article to open...http://sankei.jp.msn.com/politics/policy/110102/plc1101022347003-n1.htm and I haven't been able to find any other references to this.


The Google translation of the link you posted says:

Korea Economic Daily newspaper on three dates early edition, the newspaper said in an interview with the New Year Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara, the Korean Peninsula in East Asia as well as military provocations North Korea, "threats to peace and stability," he pointed out, "I hope that the alliance between South Korea and security in the area," it said said.
The newspaper is trying to promote security cooperation was proposed to South Korea and South Korea.
Maehara Foreign Minister, visited South Korea earlier this year, said that security cooperation between the two countries want to discuss the issue with Foreign Minister Hwan Venus. (共同) (Kyodo)

The paper, Korea Economic Daily, does have an English language page but it won't open. But from the above translation it seems that this comment might have been from "earlier this year". I'll keep checking as it would be interesting if he has repeated the comment more recently.

Especially given the following:

From: http://www.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/02_15.html

"Japan hopes to boost security cooperation with US

The Japanese government hopes to issue a joint statement to strengthen security cooperation with the United States when Prime Minister Naoto Kan visits the country as early as this spring.

The Japanese and US governments began discussing ways to deepen their alliance last year, which marked the 50th anniversary of the revision of the bilateral security treaty.

In the planned joint statement, the 2 countries are expected to confirm that they will strengthen security cooperation with possible concrete scenarios in mind. They will take into account North Korea's nuclear development and China's increasing maritime activity.

Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara spoke about the matter in an interview with NHK. He said the Democratic Party-led government's handling of the relocation of the US Futenma base in Okinawa made the US doubt Japan's commitment to the bilateral relationship.

But Maehara said the 2 countries are now fully aware that they have shared values as allies at a time when the situation in North Korea is unstable and other Asian countries are becoming more assertive. He added that Japan and the US have been promoting defense cooperation for any contingency in the area surrounding Japan.

He said he hopes the 2 countries will confirm in the joint statement that they will step up defense cooperation in peacetime and for possible contingencies affecting Japan. He said it is important for the 2 governments to discuss various scenarios and to carry out drills for them.
Maehara will visit Washington from Thursday and meet US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to discuss security cooperation.

Sun, 02 Jan 2011 22:42:00 +0900(JST)
(JST: UTC+9hrs.)"
 

Catbird

Inactive
The section that deals with defense and security from Pres. Lee's official New Years speech. It's interesting that he compares the Yeonpyeong Island attack to 9/11 in the U.S. There is no comparison possible in terms of lives or property lost. But perhaps the comparison is valid in the sense of shock value and resultant changes in national attitudes and security.

From: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/01/03/98/0301000000AEN20110103004600315F.HTML

"...2. Solid National Security and Peace on the Korean Peninsula

Fellow Koreans,

The situation before and after the provocation against Yeonpyeong Island cannot be the same. After the September 11 terrorist attacks, the United States went back to the drawing board to devise new security and national strategies, because the safety and security of its people had come under threat.

The shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, also served as an opportunity for us to reflect on our security readiness and overhaul our defense posture. As the safety and security of the Korean people is absolute, there cannot be any delay in establishing security measures. We should stand together as one on the issue of national security. We must not forget that the best possible security measure is a people united.

Peace cannot be obtained without a price. We are living with the grave reality that our nation is still divided by Cold War rivalries. We cannot let North Korea covet even an inch of our territory. Any provocation that would pose a threat to our lives and property will not be tolerated. Such provocations will be met with stern, strong responses.

We must be equipped with firm deterrence so that the North will not even contemplate another provocation. To this end, I will step up efforts for defense reform.

From now on, we need to establish and carry out peace and reunification policies based on solid national security. Taking it a step further, we need to make endeavors to engage our North Korean brethren in the long journey toward freedom and prosperity. The North must come to the realization that nothing can be gained through military adventurism. They cannot speak of peace and solidarity among Korean people while shelling civilians and threatening fellow compatriots with nuclear attacks.

North Korea's nuclear weapons development constitutes an enormous threat not only to peace on the Korean Peninsula but the entire world. The international community needs to work together to persuade the North to abandon its nuclear program and start on a path toward common prosperity. It is imperative now more than ever for countries concerned to play a fair and responsible role.

North Korea must accommodate the aspiration of all Koreans and the demand of the international community for peace and prosperity. Nuclear weapons and military adventurism must be discarded. The North must work toward peace and cooperation not only with rhetoric but also with deeds.

I remind the North that the path toward peace is yet open. The door for dialogue is still open. If the North exhibits sincerity, we have both the will and the plan to drastically enhance economic cooperation together with the international community."
 
The section that deals with defense and security from Pres. Lee's official New Years speech. It's interesting that he compares the Yeonpyeong Island attack to 9/11 in the U.S. There is no comparison possible in terms of lives or property lost. But perhaps the comparison is valid in the sense of shock value and resultant changes in national attitudes and security.

In scale they are quite different, but there are a number of similarities... where previously attacks had been targeted against military, this was the first direct attack on civilian targets on ROK soil.

A couple other passages in the speech also reference the attacks this year:


Through such efforts we have proven that we can and have achieved much. These accomplishments are the net result of our sweat and initiatives to creatively meet incessant challenges in world affairs.

However, the torpedoing of the naval ship, the Cheonan, and the provocative shelling of Yeonpyeong Island dampened the aspirations of all Koreans and people around the world who want peace on the Korean Peninsula. These are grave challenges to the Republic of Korea.

Nevertheless, nothing can stop us from becoming an advanced, leading nation. No matter what threats we face and no matter who tries to hold us back, we will not be impeded on our path toward that goal.

I see hope in the fact that new voluntary recruits for the Marine Corp has doubled since the North's provocation against Yeonpyeong Island.
I see hope watching young Koreans enjoying themselves wholeheartedly while competing in the Guangzou Asian Games, World Cup, and Vancouver Olympic Games. I see hope when young Koreans volunteer for overseas humanitarian service and when they venture into self- or team start-up businesses. In order to allow more opportunities, the Government will drastically bolster support measures for such new businesses.

I'm especially interested to hear the North's response, if any, to the brining up of the Cheonan and the phrase "provocative shelling".
 

jpigott

Veteran Member
These talks are supposed to take place just a couple days before the Chinese-US talks in Washington DC. Laying the groundwork for resumption of 6 party talks or something else?

Talks on #DPRK, between the Japanese and S. Korean foreign ministers, seem likely to take place here in Seoul around Jan. 14. about 1 hour ago via web

http://twitter.com/w7voa
 

jpigott

Veteran Member
Again, more talk of resumption of 6 party talks . . .

South Korean President Vows Stern Response to Aggression
1/3/11

Both Koreas are starting off 2011 expressing a desire for dialogue to ease tensions.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak says his country needs to strengthen security in the wake of last year’s aggression by North Korea. But, in his New Year Policy address Monday, Mr. Lee also promised help for the North, under the right conditions.

He says the door is still open for inter-Korean dialogue. And Seoul will offer economic support if Pyongyang demonstrates that it is serious about talks.

But Mr. Lee also reiterated a vow to retaliate for any further provocations that threaten South Korean lives or property.

In its official New Year’s message, Pyongyang calls for talks after soaring tensions in 2010.

There is speculation the 6-nation talks on ending North Korea’s nuclear program will revive this year.

The U.S. envoy expected to lead Washington’s team to the talks meets with South Korean officials in Seoul Tuesday. Stephen Bosworth will then visit Beijing and Tokyo
.

North Korea in 2009 announced it would not return to the nuclear talks, which began in 2003, and ordered U.N. inspectors to leave the country. It conducted a second nuclear weapons test a month later.

A former U.S. State Department adviser on North Korea, Balbina Hwang, says the current diplomacy appears to be leading to a re-start of the talks.

Hwang said, "I'm surprised to hear myself say that there might, in fact, be very well a meeting of the six-party talks. That does not mean that, I think, there will be much progress made at those talks toward de-nuclearization. And, I think, it's, in a way, seen as a method of defusing tensions by all sides, frankly, at very little cost to most countries."
The South Korean JoongAng daily newspaper Monday predicted that the leaders of the United States and China will agree to resume the talks at their summit meeting later this month in Washington.

Tensions soared to their highest level in decades on the Korean peninsula last year. North Korea was blamed for sinking a South Korean navy ship in March, killing 46 sailors. Seven months later the North shelled a South Korean island, killing four people.

The two Koreas have no diplomatic relations. Peace on the peninsula has been kept under a armistice signed in 1953 following a devastating 3-year war.

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/...112785664.html
 
Again, more talk of resumption of 6 party talks . . .


I really think N. Korea is going to have to take responsibility for the Cheonan and Yeonpeong incidents for that to happen:

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2011/01/03/0200000000AEN20110103007600315.HTML

A thaw in inter-Korean relations will only come when North Korea reaches out to South Korea with a genuine willingness to account for its acts of provocation, Seoul's point man on Pyongyang said Monday.

"Conniving over North Korea's provocation would be a step backward in the advancement of history," Hyun told a gathering of hundreds of ministry officials. "New sprouts (of reconciliation) may start to grow when (Pyongyang) moves with sincerity and responsibility. Only then will the future of cooperation and dialogue open up."

The series of comments by Lee and Hyun appeared to suggest that Pyongyang should assume responsibility for last year's deadly developments on the peninsula before the divided countries can resume talks that could lead to much-needed aid for the North.
 

jpigott

Veteran Member
Interesting snippet from the Army Times -

In the North Korean capital, an estimated 100,000 people gathered Monday for an annual New Year rally to display loyalty to leader Kim Jong Il.

The crowd packed Kim Il Sung plaza, pumping their fists in the air and shouting slogans while carrying huge portraits of Kim and his father, North Korean founder Kim Il Sung. Some waved huge red flags and played small drums, as top officials watched from an elevated viewing stand. Kim and his son and heir-apparent, Kim Jong Un, didn't appear in the footage broadcast by APTN.

http://www.armytimes.com/news/2011/01/ap-skorea-diplomacy-010311/
 

jpigott

Veteran Member
I really think N. Korea is going to have to take responsibility for the Cheonan and Yeonpeong incidents for that to happen:

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2011/01/03/0200000000AEN20110103007600315.HTML

I think you are probably right and I don't see the DPRK owning up or taking responsibility for those attacks. But if you read the press feeds today, there looks to be mounting pressure on the ROK to return to talks. Here's to hoping they stick to their guns (both literally and figuratively)
 

Catbird

Inactive
Interesting snippet from the Army Times -

In the North Korean capital, an estimated 100,000 people gathered Monday for an annual New Year rally to display loyalty to leader Kim Jong Il.

The crowd packed Kim Il Sung plaza, pumping their fists in the air and shouting slogans while carrying huge portraits of Kim and his father, North Korean founder Kim Il Sung. Some waved huge red flags and played small drums, as top officials watched from an elevated viewing stand. Kim and his son and heir-apparent, Kim Jong Un, didn't appear in the footage broadcast by APTN.

http://www.armytimes.com/news/2011/01/ap-skorea-diplomacy-010311/

A little expansion on the above article, from the original article at Yonhap. Since this was one of several rallies, it will be interesting to see if the Kims were at one somewhere else.


From: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2011/01/03/65/0401000000AEN20110103010500315F.HTML

"2011/01/03 18:32 KST

100,000 N. Koreans rally in Pyongyang to back New Year plans: report

SEOUL, Jan. 3 (Yonhap) -- About 100,000 North Koreans gathered Monday in Pyongyang to show support for their country's economic push outlined in a New Year's message, holding high the portraits of their leader Kim Jong-il and his late father, the communist state's official media said.

The scene marks the latest in a series of mass rallies the North has organized nationwide since a joint press editorial on Jan 1. called for the revival of light industries ahead of a landmark year.

...The rally, which brought together a wide collection of propaganda flags, began with a hymn to Kim Jong-il, the television said, while the participants pledged to fervently carry out the New Year goals.

North Koreans are said to be forced to memorize joint press editorials released every New Year's Day. The editorials are scrutinized by outside officials and analysts for hints into the isolated country's political and economic plans..."
 

Catbird

Inactive
As mentioned in the article I posted above, North Koreans are required to memorize the New Year's "editorials". This article from Daily NK gives some interesting background on the editorial tradition and explains why we don't hear about Kim giving many speeches.

From: http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk01300&num=7205

"How the New Year's Statement Died with Kim Il Sung

By Im Jeong Jin
[2011-01-02 18:34 ]

Back at the end of 1994, the matter of how and by whom the New Year’s Statement would be issued was a big talking point.

This was because watching Kim Il Sung deliver the New Year’s Statement on Chosun Central TV had long been a national institution. On the morning of the first day of the year, people dressed up and came before the TV to watch and listen carefully to their leader.

People took note of Kim Il Sung’s apparent health condition as they watched. In hard times, some shed a tear as they noted, “The Suryeong looks so old this year. How much trouble he has had.” Conversely, when he looked quite good, people were reassured.

Of course, after Kim died suddenly in mid 1994, the people naturally expected Kim Jong Il to deliver the statement, and were curious to hear how he would do so.

However, the successor's inarticulate and fast talking style had already been noted by officials; some of them called him a stutterer behind his back.

Even among those who had not heard Kim speak, the rumor was that he “talks too fast to be understood,” that there are “more than a few cadres who got into trouble because they couldn’t understand what he said,” that you must be “as tense and ready as you can,” and even, “When a cadre asked him to repeat himself, Kim looked at him horribly and the other day the cadre disappeared.”

Therefore, on the morning of the first day of 1995, the New Year’s Statement was not delivered by Kim Jong Il as the people had anticipated, but was instead issued commonly across the Party, Chosun People’s Army and Kim Il Sung Socialist Youth League publications in the form of an editorial.

On that morning, Kim Jong Il himself conducted an onsite inspection of “Dabaksol guard post” in Kangwon Province instead. This was reported later as being an indication that he intended to look after the front first and foremost, because that was a time of serious national security concerns.

For its part, the Party kept silent, simply declaring, “As long as we bear the slogan, ‘respected comrade Kim Il Sung is with us forever,’ don’t expect the ways that the Suryeong (Kim Il Sung) used to use.”

Nevertheless, later in the same year the people did finally hear Kim speak, at a military parade for the 50th founding day of the Workers’ Party on October 10. However, it was a disaster. At the opening ceremony of the parade, Kim Jong Il proclaimed in a high pitched stammer, “Glory to the heroic officers and soldiers of the Chosun People's Army.” Yet this was aired on Chosun Central TV, making Kim look ridiculous and awkward. It remains the only known recording of his voice, and even though the Propaganda and Agitation Department of the Central Committee of the Party claimed, “The voice of the General was like thunder,” nobody agreed.

This year marks the 17th year of the common editorial version of the New Year's Statement. People say that since the common editorial system was launched, the contents have become shallow and confidence in it has withered. It is now just empty slogans and rhetoric without any practical application, so people no longer care. They just memorize it in units, without any interest in the existence of the leader at all. "
 

Catbird

Inactive
Just for comparison, this is how the rally was reported by the KCNA.

From: http://175.45.179.68/eng/t_news.php?uuu=today&year=2011&month=1&day=3&kk=51&lang=eng

eng(40220206388067)-1.jpg


"Pyongyang, January 3 (KCNA) -- A Pyongyang city mass rally took place at Kim Il Sung Square on Monday to thoroughly carry out the militant tasks set forth in the joint New Year editorial and respond to the letter of the employees of the Kim Chaek Iron and Steel Complex.

The square was packed with at least 100 000 citizens.

Senior party and state officials were among those present there.

Mun Kyong Dok, alternate member of the Political Bureau and secretary of the Central Committee of the Workers′ Party of Korea who is chief secretary of the Pyongyang City Committee of the WPK, delivered a report at the rally.

He said that the joint New Year editorial called for accelerating the development of light industry once again this year to bring about a decisive turn in the improvement of the people′s standard of living and the building of a thriving nation.

It is like a militant banner encouraging the entire party, army and all the people to conduct a fresh general offensive, he added.

He underscored the need to speed up the construction of 100 000 flats in Pyongyang and other major projects, spruce up the streets, villages and work sites in a hygienic and cultured manner and turn the capital city into the more beautiful and modern city.

A letter sent by the employees of the complex to all the working people across the country was read out to be followed by speeches.

Kim Yong Nam, manager of the Pyongyang Daily Necessities Factory, who spoke on behalf of the workers called on the workers in the capital to channel efforts into the offensive so as to bring about great innovations and leap forward in the production of mass consumption goods in response to the military call of the Party and to the letter sent by workers of the Kim Chaek Iron and Steel Complex.

Jong Yong Suk, chairwoman of the management board of the Rihyon Vegetable Co-op Farm in Sadong District, who spoke on behalf of the agricultural workers, called on them to boost the per-unit grain output by introducing high-yielding choice seeds, increasing the area for double-cropping and actively applying latest farming methods and technologies including organic farming method.

Choe In Sop, secretary of the Pyongyang City Committee of the Kim Il Sung Socialist Youth League, who spoke on behalf of the young people called on them to work miracles in the difficult and labor-consuming work sites, including the Paektusan Songun Youth Power Station. He also urged them to play a pivotal role in pushing back the frontiers of science and technology in all domains.

Kim Chol Ho, dean of a faculty of Kim Chaek University of Technology, who spoke on behalf of the intellectuals, underlined the need to register and introduce valuable research achievements as many and as fast as possible and thus dynamically speed up the offensive to put the economy on an indigenous and Juche basis.
The rally was followed by a mass demonstration."
 
North Korea Is A Puppet: The Pueblo Incident

A quick lesson in how puppet states work.

In 1968 there was the "Pueblo Incident" in which North Korea captured the USS Pueblo, a naval intelligence reconnaissance vessel. Historically that was, and still is, considered by many to be the rogue action of an unpredictable North Korea.

Well, come to find out it was all about Russia:

http://www.seattlepi.com/awards/scorpion/scorpion3.html

Thursday, May 21, 1998

Spy net may have doomed Scorpion before it set out

By ED OFFLEY
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER MILITARY REPORTER

Shortly before the submarine USS Scorpion sank on May 22, 1968, killing its 99-man crew, U.S. intelligence officials learned that a group of Soviet warships operating in the Atlantic possibly knew that the sub was on its way to spy on them.

But the U.S. Navy did not know that the Soviets had the capability to learn in advance details of the the Scorpion's top secret mission. How did they get this capability? The Soviets had broken the U.S. Navy communications codes.

That Soviet Cold War victory remained a secret that U.S. intelligence experts would not learn for another 17 years. It has not been revealed publicly until now.

The Scorpion mission was compromised through a KGB intelligence operation that included Navy turncoat John Walker and the seizure of the American spy ship USS Pueblo.

U.S. intelligence officials told the Post-Intelligencer the seizure of the Pueblo was a direct consequence of Walker's espionage.
The connection between the Navy spy and the doomed spy ship has been a closely held secret within the Navy and intelligence community in the 13 years since Walker's arrest.

Navy spokesman Cmdr. Frank Thorp declined comment on the possible connection between Walker and the Scorpion loss Tuesday, citing the classified nature of the reports.

However, the Navy 12 years ago conceded the severity of Walker's esponiage. The KGB-Walker operation was so successful it had the "potential, had conflict erupted between the two superpowers, to have powerful war-winning implications for the Soviet side," said Rear Adm. William Studeman, then the director of naval intelligence, in a 1986 affidavit.

The KGB-Walker espionage network began in March 1967, when Navy Warrant Officer Walker contacted the Soviet Embassy in Washington, D.C., and offered to spy for them. A career submarine communications expert, Walker had just transferred to Atlantic Submarine Force headquarters in Norfolk, Va. There, he worked as one of four supervisors in the high-security communications center where messages to and from submarines on patrol were processed. That was also the communications center for the Scorpion.

Walker offered to sell the KGB top secret "keylist" cards and maintenance manuals for cryptographic systems used by the Navy, according to his confession, made after his arrest in 1985.

The Navy at the time used a series of encrypting machines to change messages into a garbled set of letters that would be impenetrable to its adversaries. When received in another machine, the message would emerge as clear English.

The insurance system was a different keylist -- an additional code -- entered into the machine each day.

It was the system used by the Scorpion on its final mission.

Walker's delivery of the keylists provided the Soviets half the materials they would need to break the Navy codes. What was still needed was the encrypting machines.

On Jan. 23, 1968, 10 months after Walker first contacted the Soviets, on Jan. 23, 1968, North Korean military units captured the Pueblo in the Sea of Japan. Seized along with the ship and its 82-man crew were at least 19 cryptographic communications machines used to encode and decode Navy messages.

The communications gear on the Pueblo provided the Soviets the other half of the material they needed to break the codes. U.S. intelligence officials agree it allowed the Soviets to unlock the top secret messages sent over each communications device.


Four months later, the Scorpion sank during its spy mission in the Atlantic. The three encryption machines installed on the Scorpion were among the systems broken by the Soviets through the Pueblo seizure, according to declassified Navy records and intelligence officials.

In particular, the Soviets had obtained a model of the KW-7 "Orestes" two-way teletypewriter, the most modern encrypted communications machine for the Navy and other military services. More than 80 percent of the Atlantic Fleet ships and all of its submarines -- including the Scorpion -- relied on the KW-7 for secure messages in 1968, according to declassified Navy reports.

Seizing the machines from the Pueblo intact was relatively easy. A 1970 congressional hearing concluded the ship had failed to destroy much of its communications equipment before the crew was overcome by North Koreans who swarmed the vessel.

Don Bailey, then a 26-year-old communications specialist on the Pueblo, confirm in a recent interview that the equipment was seized by the North Koreans.

Bailey was operating a KW-7 teletypewriter in the last frantic hour before he and his shipmates were captured, sending messages to a shore station in Japan pleading for air support or other military help. Bailey said he and his shipmates failed to destroy the cryptographic equipment because the ship had not been given emergency-destruct explosives. The machinery was installed in hardened steel cases designed to prevent them from being damaged.

"I was busy trying to destroy everything I could," Bailey recalled. "But you can't beat it up with a sledgehammer; the way it was built, this can't be done." The machine he was operating was "pretty much intact when they got us."

Despite the loss of the equipment from the Pueblo, there was little concern then about the safety of coded communications, intelligence officials said. That was because the keylist system was assumed to be intact.

Only years later when Walker was captured did they learn that the keylist system had been compromised by the Walker spy ring.

Walker admitted to investigators after his 1985 arrest that he provided keylists for the KW-7 and two other communications coding machines used by the Scorpion during his first deliveries of classified material to the Soviets, according to officials familiar with his account.

And Walker later admitted the Soviets told him they had engineered the Pueblo incident as the result of his espionage, an intelligence official said. "The Russians had given him reason to believe he was responsible (for the Pueblo incident)," because the Russians were looking for the piece of the puzzle Walker had not provided -- the precise cryptographic equipment that used the keylists and operating manuals Walker had already begun delivering to them, the intelligence official said.

The KGB concluded the Walker spy ring was the most successful espionage operation in Soviet history, according to Vitaly Yurchenko, a senior KGB agent who defected to the United States in 1985.

Walker always maintained he started spying in 1968, but intelligence experts said they believe he misstated the date he began spying to avoid implicating himself in any Soviet operation that caused the loss of American lives. Experts who grilled Walker and compared supporting evidence of his treason concluded that Walker had actually begun spying for the Soviets immediately after he reported to Norfolk in March 1967.

Until his arrest 18 years later, in 1985, Walker and his accomplices earned several million dollars from the Soviets, U.S. officials have said. It was money that may have sealed the fate of both the Pueblo and the Scorpion.

In 1986, Walker pleaded guilty to espionage and is serving a life sentence in federal prison in Colorado.

Folk here keep posting articles and discussing North Korean actions and developments as if they were somehow independent of Moscow and Beijing. This self-deluding needs to stop if this world is to have any chance of undoing the Evil leading us into destruction and subjugation. Kim Jong Il and his minions are puppets, mere chess pieces, in the global war game of Real Politik:

kim-jong-il-in-team-america.jpg
 
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Catbird

Inactive
A couple of articles that illustrate the "militant push" for a better economy.
From: http://175.45.179.68/eng/t_news.php?uuu=today&year=2011&month=1&day=3&kk=50&lang=eng

"Officials Help Workers in Steel Production in DPRK

Pyongyang, January 3 (KCNA) -- Ministries and national institutions of the DPRK are rendering sincere assistance to the workers in field of steel production.
An intensive transport of scrap iron to the Chollima Steel Complex was made on Monday.

Government officials visited the complex, carrying a large amount of scrap iron in trucks, to assist the field of metal industry in hearty response to the joint New Year editorial.

eng(40220206381747)-1.jpg


AND

From: http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk01500&num=7210

North Korea Bartering Steel for Food

By Im Jeong Jin
[2011-01-03 18:34 ]

North Korean trading companies operated by several organs have been selling steel to China in exchange for food.


One Chinese trader who does business with North Korea reported to The Daily NK on Monday, “China-based North Korean workers in charge of trading with China for Cheongusan Trading Company (under the Escort Command), say that this year Chosun is expanding the volume of its steel sales with China.”

The trader said, “In November last year, the analysis table of steel quality was delivered to us, and accordingly a contract has also already been signed.” He added, “In Chosun, the company is waiting for a permit to trade from an upper organ after having loaded materials on freight trains.”

He explained further, “For the price of the steel, Chosun has asked for rice, flour, noodles and also construction materials,” adding, “Food in bulk can enter Chosun.”

He explained that since North Korea is facing a serious lack of food, cement and other construction materials due to isolation from the international community, the country is trying to barter steel for food with China, from which the North is able to import.

Another trader in China verified the story, explaining, “Recently in Dandong, workers from Kangsung General Trading Company (under the General Staff) and other companies visited China for the purpose of selling steel.”

He added, “From now on, our company is going to do only steel trade with Chosun. We have decided not to do business in other things because our experiences have shown that there is no credit there.”

He went on, “North Korean trading units may have suffered from limitations put on items by Chinese companies,” going on, “If Chosun does not make a deal with us, they will starve to death this year. Even though they emphasize independent rehabilitation, when have they ever been rehabilitated?”

North Korea’s media frequently emphasizes the glorious production of “Juche” steel at Kim Chaek Steel Mill and Gangsun Steel Mill. Indeed, the Common Editorial issued on the first day of this year stated that, “By the power of the realization of the faith and model of Kim Steel (steel from Kim Chaek Steel Mill) and Juche steel, let’s have waves of victories.”

According to KOTRA, South Korea’s trade statistics agency, from January to October, 2010, North Korea exported steel to China worth $82 million. "
 
A couple of articles that illustrate the "militant push" for a better economy.

The question you should be asking yourself is: What image is NK trying to paint and why? I believe the answer fits optimally into Russian and China's larger stratagem to militarily defeat the West and conquer the world.
 
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Catbird

Inactive
Just FYI. I suspect that the USS Carl Vinson CBG will be taking a little "Freedom of the Seas" tour of the South China Sea area from 5 - 17 Jan.

HYDROPAC 21/2011(GEN).
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
SOUTH CHINA SEA.
ORDNANCE.
1. BOMBING EXERCISES:
A. 050001Z TO 061500Z JAN
IN AREA BOUND BY
25-23N 132-18E, 23-37N 134-29E,
22-40N 133-35E, 24-26N 131-23E.
B. 070001Z TO 081500Z JAN
IN AREA BOUND BY
25-56N 129-34E, 25-21N 130-32E,
24-35N 130-00E, 25-11N 129-02E.
C. 100001Z TO 101500Z JAN
IN AREA BOUND BY
31-58N 128-25E, 31-08N 129-14E,
30-23N 128-00E, 31-11N 127-42E.
D. 150001Z TO 151500Z JAN
IN AREA BOUND BY
27-22N 124-28E, 27-00N 125-17E,
25-06N 124-15E, 25-27N 123-27E.
E. 170001Z TO 171500Z JAN
IN AREA BOUND BY
18-30N 117-18E, 17-26N 118-39E,
14-05N 115-43E, 15-09N 114-22E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 171600Z JAN.
 

jpigott

Veteran Member
Just FYI. I suspect that the USS Carl Vinson CBG will be taking a little "Freedom of the Seas" tour of the South China Sea area from 5 - 17 Jan.

Nice timing with the Hu-Obama summit scheduled to start on Jan. 18th, I believe. Just a friendly little reminder that while they may own our debt, we can sail a CBG and park a lot of firepower right on up to their doorstep.
 

jpigott

Veteran Member
see satellite picture at link

N.Korea 'Spends Millions on Home for Kim Jong-un'

Poverty-stricken North Korea is spending some US$150 million building a house and office for leader Kim Jong-il's heir apparent Jong-un, the Telegraph reported Saturday.

In this satellite photo posted on the U.K. paper's website, the structure on the left is reportedly Kim's office, and the newly built Official Residence No. 15on the right his home.

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/01/03/2011010300891.html
 

Catbird

Inactive
I really think N. Korea is going to have to take responsibility for the Cheonan and Yeonpeong incidents for that to happen:

And "take concrete steps" per the U.S. So essentially, the conditions for the talks have not changed in spite of everyone being "willing".

From: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2011/01/04/0200000000AEN20110104000100315.HTML

"2011/01/04 06:34 KST

N. Korea urged to take concrete steps for denuclearization before 6-way talks: State Dept.

WASHINGTON, Jan. 3 (Yonhap) -- The United States Monday called on North Korea to take concrete steps toward its denuclearization before reopening the six-party nuclear talks, which have been stalled for more than two years over the North's provocations.

"We have noted public statements about the potential for improved dialogue between North and South," State Department spokesman Philip Crowley said. "Obviously, that can be important. And we'll see whether the North follows through on that offer for dialogue."

Crowley was discussing the North's proposal made through its New Year's message that calls for dialogue with South Korea to ease tensions and reiterates its commitment to nuclear dismantlement."
 

Catbird

Inactive
Some changes announced by the ROK military.

From: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/01/03/1/0301000000AEN20110103007700315F.HTML

"...ordered the Army to overhaul its bureaucratic practices and hold "realistic maneuvers to nurture highly disciplined field commanders and soldiers."

The Air Force increased the annual flight time for fighter pilots by three hours to 153 hours this year to boost its readiness against threats from North Korea.

In addition, the ground standby time for fighter jets such as F-15Ks and KF-16s has been shortened to 30 minutes this year from the previous two-hour requirement to become more responsive to missions, the Air Force said in a statement.

"North Korea's artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island demonstrated that the North could make a provocation in an unpredictable manner at an unpredictable moment," Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Park Jong-heon said in the statement.

"By ensuring the round-the-clock air surveillance and early warning system, we should hone our ability to resolutely retaliate if North Korea provokes us again," Park said.

The Navy, meanwhile, required its officers and sailors to undergo further physical readiness training, including a tougher program for swimming.

This month, the Navy will launch a task force to bolster its education training this month, it said in a separate statement."
 

Catbird

Inactive
Heads up......

Was looking around over at Military Photos.net and came across a thread talking about the Japanese Foreign Minister stating that he wants to pursue a formal security alliance with South Korea.

I can't get the news article to open...http://sankei.jp.msn.com/politics/policy/110102/plc1101022347003-n1.htm and I haven't been able to find any other references to this.


Maybe a roundabout confirmation of this.

From: http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9KGRC3G0&show_article=1

"Japan-S. Korea foreign ministers' talk planned for Jan. 14+

Jan 3 06:42 AM US/Eastern

TOKYO, Jan. 3 (AP) - (Kyodo)—Japanese Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara is planning to visit South Korea on Jan. 14 to hold talks with his South Korean counterpart Kim Sung Hwan, Foreign Ministry sources said Monday.

It will be Maehara's first visit to South Korea as foreign minister. During the meeting, he intends to confirm cooperation between the two nations in dealing with rising tension on the Korean Peninsula following North Korea's artillery attack on a South Korean island in November and Pyongyang's nuclear development.

Maehara is also expected to make a courtesy call on South Korean President Lee Myung Bak during the trip, the sources said.

Maehara is scheduled to visit the United States from Thursday to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. His successive trips to the United States and South Korea apparently aim at sending a "strong message" to North Korea, according to a government source. "
 
IS A SECOND KOREAN WAR IMMINENT?!

WHOA!

I might have discovered something important and it seems to imply that North Korea will do something major tomorrow, January 4th (already 1/4 in Korea as I type this), or in the days ahead.

A tad late, but I started to look more closely at the partial solar eclipse tomorrow (actually in around 9 hours) and noticed that there's the third of a triple conjunction of Jupiter and Uranus tomorrow as well:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_eclipse_of_January_4,_2011

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_conjunction

Recalling something about this from my blog, "Russia's Secret War Plans", I went back and looked and check this out:

China operates in concert with Russia (especially with regard to the North Korean puppet state that was originally established by Russia after World War Two), and Russia shapes history according to astrology similar to the occult practices of Hitler's Germany in waging World War Two.

"Astrology is a quite serious science. It helps us launch spacecraft, missiles; we use it broadly to forestall suicides among the personnel. Experience shows it is unreasonable to reject it. Our estimates and forecasts are usually corroborated up to 70-75 percent." - Viktor Yakovlev, Commander of the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces

"Believe it or not, every three months a summary of astrological prognoses predicting the place and date of future extraordinary occurrences is sent from the St. Petersburg Naval Scientific Research Institute to the Russian Defense Ministry's General Staff." - Komsomolskaya Pravda; January 21, 1998

Note that the first of a triple conjunction between Jupiter and Neptune just occurred. This is more rare than I had thought, last occurring in 1971. The last time a triple conjunction occurred involving outer planets was 1993. With the third Saturn-Neptune conjunction in 1989, the Berlin Wall came down as the staged "Velvet Revolutions" took place in Eastern Europe.

Notably, when the Berlin Wall came down, a major phase of "peaceful" convergence between East and West, Communism and Capitalism, got underway.

Korea's DMZ constitutes the final Cold War "battleline" between world Communism and Capitalism, East and West.

With this week's conjunction of Jupiter and Neptune, North Korea carried out an underground test of an atomic bomb the size of the ones dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki and test launched medium range ballistic missiles stirring regional tensions.

Should North Korea go back to war with South Korea, a major phase of "violent" convergence between East and West will be underway.

So here's a breakdown of key conjunctions from Wiki's entry on major triple conjunctions of major planets (apparently the Saturn and Jupiter triple conjunctions w/Uranus and Neptune in 1988, 1989, 2009 & 2011 are what's relevant):

1988 Saturn-Uranus June 26: Mikhail Gorbachev elected "president" of the USSR and calls for sweeping democratic reforms at special Communist Party conference on June 28th.

1989 Saturn-Neptune November 13: Berlin Wall comes down on November 9/10.

2009 Jupiter-Neptune May 27: North Korea tests an atomic bomb on May 25th and pulls out of the armistice agreement that ended the Korean War on May 27th.

2011 Jupiter-Uranus January 4: ??????

Now fortunately my "Kremlin Astrology" prognostications have missed more often than not, but this is a remarkable discovery and if North Korea does do something significant in the next few days, then this would be a significant corroboration of my hypothesis. Of course, the question is: Does the correlation exist because the Kremlin is shaping history according to astrology or because astrology is influencing the actions of the Russia, North Korea, etc.? I believe that God is authoring history, but I also believe the Kremlin is seeking to author history:

"History is a capricious creature. It depends on who writes it." - Mikhail Gorbachev

I guess this gets down the the existential issue about the extent to which God authors history VERSUS man authoring history which is a key point regarding "free will". Of course, North Korea and the mad Kremlin tyrants epitomize how man constrains free will contrary to God's will for man. Hence, "my" authorship of this post. Holy jeepers....this seems like some sort of Matrix moment...
 
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Catbird

Inactive
Heads up......

Was looking around over at Military Photos.net and came across a thread talking about the Japanese Foreign Minister stating that he wants to pursue a formal security alliance with South Korea.

I can't get the news article to open...http://sankei.jp.msn.com/politics/policy/110102/plc1101022347003-n1.htm and I haven't been able to find any other references to this.


And further confirmation.

From: http://world.kbs.co.kr/english/news/news_In_detail.htm?No=78424

"'Militaries of Japan, S.Korea to Strengthen Cooperation'

Update 2011-01-04 08:46:58

South Korea and Japan have reportedly planned to unveil a joint declaration on the strengthening of bilateral cooperation between their two militaries.


Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun said Tuesday that Seoul and Tokyo will do so as they have agreed on the need to strengthen solidarity amid unstable conditions in the region.

The report said the two sides are considering ways to adopt accords on the bilateral provision of military supplies and services as well as exchanges of intelligence between Japan’s Self-Defense Forces and South Korea’s military.


The paper said Japanese Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa will discuss the details of such proposed accords when he visits South Korea on Monday and holds talks with South Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin. "

AND both a confirmation and a denial from The Japan Times.

From: http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20110104a1.html

"Tuesday, Jan. 4, 2011

Military pact sought with South Korea
Cooperation eyed on overseas ops


Kyodo News

The government plans to pursue a military agreement that ensures reciprocal provision of supplies and services between the Self-Defense Forces and the South Korean military when conducting international cooperative activities, sources said Monday.

Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa is expected to convey the plan for the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement to his South Korean counterpart Kim Kwan Jin when he visits next Monday.

Kitazawa is also expected to confirm the need to accelerate bilateral talks to conclude the General Security of Military Information Agreement, the sources said.

Tokyo has acknowledged a growing need to strengthen military cooperation with South Korea, given the rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea shelled the South's Yeonpyeong Island near the tense western sea border in November, killing two soldiers and two civilians.

South Korean defense authorities are positive about the Japanese proposal, but diplomatic officials are generally reluctant, given the hostilities lingering from Japan's annexation of Korea in the early 1900s, making it uncertain if talks will proceed smoothly, the sources said.


The ACSA stipulates mutual obligations on sharing food, water, fuel and necessary components as well as cooperation on transportation, maintenance and medical work. Details of operations are defined by each country's laws.

Japan is hoping to seal the ACSA with South Korea in regard to international peacekeeping operations, relief activities and joint drills, the sources said.


Tokyo, however, has yet to decide whether the ACSA will be effective during emergencies on the periphery, such as on the Korean Peninsula, the sources said.

Japan has already formed similar accords with the United States and Australia.

Meanwhile, a GSOMIA between Japan and the United States has been effective since 2007 to prevent information leakage when the two nations share necessary military information, such as technology and coding information, in conducting joint operations or in the case of emergency.


Maehara report denied


SEOUL (Kyodo) Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara is hoping that a security alliance can be struck between Japan and South Korea to counter North Korea, the Maeil Business Newspaper said Monday in a report that was later denied by the Japanese Foreign Ministry.

In his New Year's interview with the South Korean economic daily, Maehara said North Korea's military provocations not only threaten the Korean Peninsula but also the stability of all of East Asia.

"I hope Japan will form an alliance with South Korea also in the field of security," Maehara was quoted as saying.

On Monday evening, the Foreign Ministry issued a statement that called on the newspaper to issue a correction on the grounds that Maehara never spoke about a Japan-South Korea security alliance in the interview.

The ministry said he merely stated that one of the themes that will be in focus this year is how both Japan and South Korea will be able to create an atmosphere for serious dialogue with South Korea in the area of security."
 
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