FWIW, we now have a CONFIRMED Hindenburg Omen.

Mark D

Now running for Emperor.
Thursday's NYSE action CONFIRMED a Hindenburg Omen, which means that there is a very real possibility of a true market crash in the next 120 days.

The occurrence of a confirmed Hindenburg Omen does not necessarily mean that the stock market will go down. On the other hand there has never been a significant stock market decline in history, that was not preceded by a confirmed Hindenburg Omen.

WIKI: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen
 
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theoutlands

Official Resister
For those of us who don't understand, some sort of explanation of the term and summary of how said actions fit would be nice.
 

Haybails

I got my first Timebomb!
Thursday's NYSE action CONFIRMED a Hindenburg Omen, which means that there is a very real possibility of a true market crash in the next 120 days.

The occurrence of a confirmed Hindenburg Omen does not necessarily mean that the stock market will go down. On the other hand there has never been a significant stock market decline in history, that was not preceded by a confirmed Hindenburg Omen.

WIKI: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen

Hey Mark,

I followed the wiki link . . . but, still don't quite understand where you get the "120" day window. Did I miss that somewhere or am I missunderstanding a calculation or something? I thought, on the wiki site - in the Conclusions section, it stated a 41 day window. :shr:



HB
 

Fleataxi

Inactive
Haybails: Basically certain "market indicators" that have been fairly accurate in the past pile up, and indicate a possible sudden downturn in the stock market. It's NOT the end of the world, more like a potential trip wire.

With the Plunge Protection team in place, they might be able to mitigate it if they know in advance and can take an action to prevent it that won't have worse consequences than the downturn.

Fleataxi
 

Mugwamp

Inactive
Hindenburg Omen Definition

The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis signal that attempts to predict a forthcoming stock market crash. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, the crash of the German zeppelin of the same name in May 1937.

The Hindenburg Omen is the alignment of several technical factors that measure the underlying condition of the stock market - specifically the NYSE - such that the probability that a stock market crash occurs is higher than normal, and the probability of a severe decline is quite high. The rationale behind the indicator is that, under normal conditions, either a substantial number of stocks establish new annual highs or a large number set new lows - but not both. When both new highs and new lows are large, it indicates the stock market is undergoing a period of extreme divergence. Such divergence is not usually conducive to future rising prices. A healthy market requires some degree of internal uniformity, whether the direction of that uniformity is up or down.------------
 

Mark D

Now running for Emperor.
Hey Mark,

I followed the wiki link . . . but, still don't quite understand where you get the "120" day window. Did I miss that somewhere or am I missunderstanding a calculation or something? I thought, on the wiki site - in the Conclusions section, it stated a 41 day window. :shr:



HB

The 120 days is the envelope for a BIG crash, like 25-35%. (That data actually comes from http://www.technicalindicatorindex.com) We might see a steady decline over the next four months rather than a one day cliff. OR, we could see a REALLY nasty week of 5% days.

You can bet that the PPT is ordering extra coffee and valium as we speak, and, that Bernake is bringing some extra printing presses online.
 

Fleataxi

Inactive
AR: Good advice - get out of any high-risk stocks NOW - buy Gold/Silver Metal only - Certs aren't worth the paper they're printed on.

Fleataxi
 

ladydkr

Inactive
When I posted the unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen occurance last week many made fun of me.

I have been watching for the confirmed to occur. From the history these come in clusters. It appears this is indeed a rare indicator that all but two times has resulted in a market correction.

As far as when the "crash" comes it can vary within 1 day to 120 days.

I have sold off a lot. All of you who doubt the coming crash are in for a big surprise. I thought September but now I am saying it is falling apart right now. And this time I do not think the government has the $155 Billion or more it will take to stop the inevitable recession/depression. Just look at all the government stats and the like and you can see the trend building. No savings, people not eating out, hedge funds in trouble, subprime in trouble, and more and more late payments on mortgages. And China divested $5.1 Billion in t-bills with the head of the treasury making visits around the world to beef up our note sales. If they don't buy our T bills we go broke!

Yeah, I know we had a better account balance deficit. But what they don't tell you is the escalating amount of previously sold T bills that are mushrooming out of control as they have to be refi-ed, This year the 5 year notes are starting to spill into the mix. And not one foreign entity bought any 10 year notes at a recent auction. The handwriting is on the wall. Recession/depression etc.

No more cell phones, DSL, game videos, I pods for the entitlement generation.
 

Haybails

I got my first Timebomb!
No more cell phones, DSL, game videos, I pods for the entitlement generation.

Forgive me for going off in a tanget here . . . but, I work in IT. And I don't have:
  • A Cell Phone
  • DSL
  • Console Video Game
  • an I-POD
  • a Palm Pilot (or any other pocket unit)

But, I DO have a big wide open yard and an even bigger forest directly behind our house . . . and my two children (7 and 9 yrs old) LOVE that!!

I guess I just never got into the 'trappings' of wanting to have 'things'. I mean, we do have a TV/Car/Computer/etc . . . but, we're not 'keeping up with the Jones'.

Not bragging . . . just smiling out loud.





HB
 

almost ready

Inactive
Ladykiller

on the contrary, the less money folks have, the more they, especially the young, turn to virtual fun.

They can't afford a real pony, so buy the little one Barbie's Pony or some such game.

Then there's Second LIfe and several other online games that kids play by the month.

I read a book called SnowCrash where the poor live in what we today use as storage spaces, but enjoy heroic lives in cyberspace. At that time, it was a new idea. Now it's an emerging trend.

On the other hand, it sounds like you have a real grip on your investments. Thumbs up for that! I suspect we'll have a bumpy summer and start losing altitude in the fall. We'll see.
 
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ladydkr

Inactive
I don't have any of those things either. But the entitlement generation sure does. The point is that they might not have the wherewithall to buy the latests. They don't have to go out and buy something else in order to do the play games thing. These items are not cheap.... parents buy. If parents can't put out an extra couple hundred for these toys then the kids are going to do without.

I'm a minimalist. No cable, no DSL, no Ipod (my cell my daughter gave me on hers but I only use it when travelling, certainly not at the grocery store), none of the other things on the list.

Sales of cookbooks might go up!
 

rcstew

Veteran Member
Forgive me for going off in a tanget here . . . but, I work in IT. And I don't have:
  • A Cell Phone
  • DSL
  • Console Video Game
  • an I-POD
  • a Palm Pilot (or any other pocket unit)

But, I DO have a big wide open yard and an even bigger forest directly behind our house . . . and my two children (7 and 9 yrs old) LOVE that!!

I guess I just never got into the 'trappings' of wanting to have 'things'. I mean, we do have a TV/Car/Computer/etc . . . but, we're not 'keeping up with the Jones'.

Not bragging . . . just smiling out loud.





HB

LOL
 

Nitengale

Senior Member
I don't have all the techy toys either. Still use dial- up on my computer. Life is pretty simple, but still runs into money.
 

Double_A

TB Fanatic
A few months ago , web bots projects were getting back snippets saying a steady weekly decline over many weeks bringing the market down, nothing dramatic.

Bots also indicated about Mid summer, the decline would be undeniable to even the lamest gov official and everyone would be able to (looking back) pin-point around the solstice as the beginning of the end, implying that many would be in denial thinking the following week market would be up but no it would be anonther down week and another and another.

I guess we'll se eh?
 

batterbiscuts

Veteran Member
then go short

If everybody truely thinks the market is going down, then go SHORT. Put your money where your mouth is.

Batterbiscuts
 

Skyraider

Veteran Member
I just bought the Nintendo Wii and am having a blast with it. The bowling game is lots of fun and tonight my BIL and I have been fishing for striped bass in the virtual world for the past hour. Great Fun..

I use a cell phone every day. Still have dialup cause I can't get any other service where I live. Dsl would be nice.

Don't have an Ipod, but I do have a Zen Nano by creative to carry music on. Very soothing. Neil Young is my guy.

I drive a Chevy Suburban and my wife drives a PT Cruiser.

I doubt that these things are the make or break it in economic life.

Skyraider
 

nanna

Devil's Advocate
When I posted the unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen occurance last week many made fun of me.

I have been watching for the confirmed to occur. From the history these come in clusters. It appears this is indeed a rare indicator that all but two times has resulted in a market correction.

As far as when the "crash" comes it can vary within 1 day to 120 days.

I have sold off a lot. All of you who doubt the coming crash are in for a big surprise. I thought September but now I am saying it is falling apart right now. And this time I do not think the government has the $155 Billion or more it will take to stop the inevitable recession/depression. Just look at all the government stats and the like and you can see the trend building. No savings, people not eating out, hedge funds in trouble, subprime in trouble, and more and more late payments on mortgages. And China divested $5.1 Billion in t-bills with the head of the treasury making visits around the world to beef up our note sales. If they don't buy our T bills we go broke!

Yeah, I know we had a better account balance deficit. But what they don't tell you is the escalating amount of previously sold T bills that are mushrooming out of control as they have to be refi-ed, This year the 5 year notes are starting to spill into the mix. And not one foreign entity bought any 10 year notes at a recent auction. The handwriting is on the wall. Recession/depression etc.

No more cell phones, DSL, game videos, I pods for the entitlement generation.


Hey, I don't know if it was me who you thought "made fun of you", but I do scoff at the notion of the Hindenburg Omen. (Any interested can search on this here at TB2k - and find this signal has yet to produce any statistically significant predictive capability in the several times it has been "issued" over the past few years.)

I've been a stock broker for nearly a quarter century, and not ONE TIME have I seen this HO mentioned anywhere but on internet boards.

That said, it always makes sense to have a diversified portfolio, to consistently rebalance/reallocate ones' holdings and to pay attention to what's going on.

And yes, the hedge fund issues are far from over ... some of the bids for the collateral from the BS portfolios (pun intended) were as low as 10 cents on a dollar, which is why the bankers decided it was better to play together than to play the game of chicken against each other.



nanna
 

astrogirl

Inactive
When has this supposed omen been confirmed in the past? Wiki does not say.

I was particularly wondering about 2002. The market dropped quite a lot that summer, just not all in one day.
 

RentedMule

Senior Member
So I think the synopsis of this thread goes like this:

- get out of the stock market and put your money in your cookie jar
- anyone who enjoys technology and gadgets is overprivaleged and spoiled
- always panic when the market has a couple of bad days.

Sounds like a torturous existence to me.
 

Mugwamp

Inactive
Look Out Below

The occurrence of a confirmed Hindenburg Omen does not necessarily mean that the stock market will go down. On the other hand there has never been a significant stock market decline in history, that was not preceded by a confirmed Hindenburg Omen.
 

ladydkr

Inactive
The old post had an interesting table about clusters of Hindenburg Omens. Only two times did it not result in a crash within a specified number of days.

Take it or leave it.

I do not pay much attention to all the goobly gook analysts give out with this curve and that. But I do pay attention to market indicators every week. I do pay attention to what is happening on mainstreet. I do pay attention to the commodities markets. I do pay attention to our deficit and growing problems with selling Treasury instruments to fund our "war games". I have been trading for 50 years. Recently went extremely heavy on cash.

Just add all the dots. Negative savings. Declines in retail sales. Housing markets. Foreclosure rates. Subprime failures. (And it is not just sub primes that are getting into trouble). Treasury bonds not selling to foreign investors. Slow sales at restaurants. Jobless claims going up. High cost of gasoline. Food prices going up.

Just look at the last weeks threads to see the trend.

This HO may just be the culmination of all that negativity.

Oh and I forgot peak oil.

Don't believe. I see it happening. This is the year.... How about a date for those of you into that 7/7/07!
 

nanna

Devil's Advocate
The old post had an interesting table about clusters of Hindenburg Omens. Only two times did it not result in a crash within a specified number of days.

Take it or leave it.

I do not pay much attention to all the goobly gook analysts give out with this curve and that. But I do pay attention to market indicators every week. I do pay attention to what is happening on mainstreet. I do pay attention to the commodities markets. I do pay attention to our deficit and growing problems with selling Treasury instruments to fund our "war games". I have been trading for 50 years. Recently went extremely heavy on cash.

Just add all the dots. Negative savings. Declines in retail sales. Housing markets. Foreclosure rates. Subprime failures. (And it is not just sub primes that are getting into trouble). Treasury bonds not selling to foreign investors. Slow sales at restaurants. Jobless claims going up. High cost of gasoline. Food prices going up.

Just look at the last weeks threads to see the trend.

This HO may just be the culmination of all that negativity.

Oh and I forgot peak oil.

Don't believe. I see it happening. This is the year.... How about a date for those of you into that 7/7/07!


Please reference the chart in this article, showing more than 30 of such events, where only a few - enough to be random - were the precursor to a crash ...


http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2004/comment_042704.htm


...and that was compiled before the last two go - rounds with this so-called "indicator" that have been mentioned on TB2K.


Again, please don't consider me optimistic about the US stock market. I am well on record over the years as to my opinions on such (not that they are to be considered investment advice, heh).



nanna
 

nanna

Devil's Advocate
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Mugwamp

Inactive
Here is the scenario I see.

The FED will not raise the discount rate in the forseeable future. However, the Europeans will continue to raise rates, which will put upward pressure on US treasuries.

The yield curve will steepen until liquidity begins to dry up and the stock market begins to tank. The economy is already in recession, but the way things are rigged, nobody at the FED will acknowledge it until the employment rate begins to rise.

More hedge fund problems will occur until it reaches crises proportion. When it becomes apparent that the economy is in the same situation as after the dot com bust, the FED will panic and begin to cut rates.

Unfortunately, this will put significant downward pressure on the dollar and you will see runaway inflation. China and Japan will begin to dump treasuries which will drive prices down and rates up.

At some point, the entire global system will reach a tipping point and we will see a global financial crises. After that, major economic dislocations will ensue. By that time the US will have been forced to either attack Iran or support Israel in an attack.

After the first nuke, even a bunker buster, goes off all bets are off.

But, the market will probably go up today.
 

Garand

Veteran Member
I am no financial wizard. I have done very well these last 5 years making 20-33%return each year. Last week I pulled 70% out of the market. Indicators are everywhere and I expect a correction. Whether it happens in a week or over several months who knows. One little incident, whether a terrorist attack here at home or another big hurricane can push the market into a correction. We are walking a tightrope.
 
I don't have any of those things either. But the entitlement generation sure does. The point is that they might not have the wherewithall to buy the latests. They don't have to go out and buy something else in order to do the play games thing. These items are not cheap.... parents buy. If parents can't put out an extra couple hundred for these toys then the kids are going to do without.

I'm a minimalist. No cable, no DSL, no Ipod (my cell my daughter gave me on hers but I only use it when travelling, certainly not at the grocery store), none of the other things on the list.

Sales of cookbooks might go up!

That's not always the case. This mommy and daddy don't buy it.

My kids have Ipods, game systems and all kinds of techno cr@p but they buy them for themselves. My daughter has had a steady part time job for 3 years now and she's only 17. If my son needs money he finds work. He's having a hard time finding steady work because he's only 15 and jobs like mowing are done by illegals. I know, they're just doing the jobs Americans won't do:rolleyes: .
 

gdpetti

Inactive
The 'big' boys announced their exit over the last month or two with all those released reports to their 'large portfolio clients'.... like in govt., such news is hardly ever released without intent... another example is Former Fed Chairman Greenspan speaking of high possibility for recession, market decline etc since he left the position... central banks raising interest rates to combat 'inflation' ie. New Zealand the other day, which will push the USFed to do the same as a 'pass through effect' as global goods and services pass along their inflation to their clients, and th eFed has to raise rates to compete in the international market for investment in debt instruments... even though we can still 'fake it' awhile longer... weakness in US factories orders excluding the voliatile aircraft orders.

Add the simple facts in the declining housing industry which has been the main prop to the economy since 9-11... 25-35% in key markets... and it has been these key markets that have kept the others afloat... which is the nature of a 'capitalist system'... consumer confidence in it... which is in decline as will... and those auto industry layoffs are just getting started... won't finish till early next year.

Then add the continued release of the truth involving 9-11: http://www.jonesreport.com/articles/260607_mineta.html
More and more are doing so as the fire gets closer to their own feet and the administration is willing to throw them out with the dirty bathwater.

Add the continued support in Congress for the administration's NWO policies in the world, especially the Middle East... as another flase flag op is planned for the USA perhaps after General Pace leaves office in September... as the key personnel have been put into place. http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=246700&highlight=coup+d'etat

And none of this includes the 'earth changes'' that keep increasing like a pot on slow boil getting set to pop the lid.

Add the lawsuit to request Freedom of Information from the administration on the desposition of the federal gold accounts at Fort Know and elsewhere... not just the whereabouts and amount present, but the use in terms of approved manipulation in the international markets... some of which has been spoken of already. Gold might just be the last 'play' in international financial markets, but with all these markets manipulated so much, the largesse of the increased money supply (think inflation) is capital in serach of a place to land... safely, and finding near to none... and thereby further spooking the markets as those with plenty start running scared.

The question as those 'large portfolio reports' have spoken of is not if, but when this game is over.... and none of them have a good idea of what to do about it... except following the same as always, and that is increasingly showing less return on their investment... but in 'bad' times, it's always better to be safe than sorry.

In the end, the only real 'confirmation' we the public, will get is those we feel in our bones... intuition and instincts pushing us to follow the path of least resistance... which IMO, is to exit the market.. dollar included if you can.... gold is probably still the only and last game in town.... as it's hard to tell what Mother Nature has in store for us as well as our govt. 'leaders'.... in the end, it seems a question of 'who do you trust'?
 

astrogirl

Inactive
I get Marketwatch headlines every day, and I'll tell you, it's been crappy statistic after crappy statistic. Eventually, the markets will wake up to the bad numbers and there will be a tipping point.

So far this week:
Inventory of U.S. homes for sale rises to 15-year high
U.S. housing prices decline at fastest rate in 16 years
U.S. consumer confidence hits 10-month low
U.S. durable-goods orders show broad-based declines

Why does the stock market not care? I don't know, but I'm starting to think about taking some profits and sitting in cash for a little while.
 

Windi

Newbie
I have a question, for all you gurus out there.

When the fed says that there is only a 4% unemployment, are they using the numbers they get from the amount of people currently collecting unemployment?

This is both in regards to the economy and imigration.

In both cases, if they do use current unemployment claims, they are not counting those people who (like me for the most part) dont file a claim when they think they will only be out of work for a week or two (ie using temp agency and praying). Or those that have used up thier claim and are still unable to find work. I think if there was a way to find this information our talking heads would have to eat most of what they have said recently in both regards to the economy and imigration.

Windi
 
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