Spirit Of Truth
Inactive
http://www.spiritoftruth.org/stockmarketcrash.htm
And yes, even a broken clock is right twice a day...
And yes, even a broken clock is right twice a day...
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Possible Market Crash / War
- Thread starter Spirit Of Truth
- Start date
mbabulldog
Veteran Member
SoT, I've read your posts in the past, and tried to respect your opinion. That being said...
If you're going to make a post with "ALERT" followed by "market crash and war alert", you damn well better be talking about RIGHT FRIGGIN' NOW, or state that your post is a thesis reviewing past history. You're causing undo stress and alarm...
If you're going to make a post with "ALERT" followed by "market crash and war alert", you damn well better be talking about RIGHT FRIGGIN' NOW, or state that your post is a thesis reviewing past history. You're causing undo stress and alarm...
Hiding Bear
Inactive
I'm in agreement that the market is in bad shape and heading down, but I would like to see something more specific about the 'crash' and why it is expected soon.
zoose
Inactive
But (I hate to start a sentance with a preposition) when do you know when that clock is right?
FlyLadyFan
Inactive
"But" is actually a conjunction, not a preposition.
Sorry. Couldn't resist.
Agreed though as far as SoT bumping own thread and vagueness and all. What is it when the boy cries wolf continuously just in case a wolf comes by at any given moment, not because he wants attention. Of course .... well, nevermind.
FLF
.
Spirit Of Truth
Inactive
The stock market is oversold....BUT the reversal from 13,000 today and the break in the SPX to just above its August 16th low is very ominous. The comparable point in history would be the stock market trading just days before 9/11 when the DJIA had reversed below the 10K mark and the SPX broke below its 200 day moving average. Hence, another 9/11-type event, i.e., a Black Swan event, could be hours or days away. My suspicion is something could erupt around the Annapolis Mideast peace talks....but not necessarily in Maryland. I'm thinking Syria/Lebanon/Hezbollah.
It could be we are simply dealing with financial affairs, e.g., the Chinese stock market is about to crash or a major bank or hedge fund is going to collapse.
Might be nothing....but we have reversed decisively from Dow 13K AND the SPX is a half point from closing below its August closing low.
When I get a chance I'll update my article to incorporate my new take on why history unfolds the way it does in connection with stock market technical analysis.
I mean Saddam Hussein didn't invade Kuwait because the DJIA reversed from 3K and 9/11 didn't occur because the DJIA reversed below 10K and the SPX broke below its 200 day moving average.
I watched the movie "What The Bleep Do We Know?!" that carries the seeds to the answer.
Thought creates reality, not vice versa. But mind over matter is not straightforward.
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Chumbucket
Inactive
I just watched your video hosted on the link you provided in this thread. You'd be much better off making a new video rather than being associated with people farther out of reality than your own theorem.
While you appear to be bright and articulate I don't think, at least for me, you pass the smell test.
Here is a direct link to the video if anyone else cares to watch.
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-5184676378512684342
While you appear to be bright and articulate I don't think, at least for me, you pass the smell test.
Here is a direct link to the video if anyone else cares to watch.
http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-5184676378512684342
mbabulldog
Veteran Member
Again, SoT, my complaint is as follows:
Are we in a War Alert, at this very moment? NO
Is the market crashing, right at this very moment? NO
Your statements would merit WTSHTF reactions from those who didn't know better. A simple re-write of your title thread would be more accurate, and more truthful of the contents of your thread.
Are we in a War Alert, at this very moment? NO
Is the market crashing, right at this very moment? NO
Your statements would merit WTSHTF reactions from those who didn't know better. A simple re-write of your title thread would be more accurate, and more truthful of the contents of your thread.
Spirit Of Truth
Inactive
I changed the title.
Better?
However, the market is not necessarily crashing, but it plunged some 250 points into the close.
Also....I consider the DJIA reversing dramatically from 13K reason to be on alert for a possible Black Swan 9/11 event which means a war-type event.
Please note the other threads regarding the growing credit crisis and global financial panic. How does this connect with a 9/11 type event or outbreak of war?
The easiest way to understand this is to think of financial markets as nerve centers in the global brain of collective consciousness. When a panic starts to develop in world financial markets, negative collective thoughts are about to occur and collective thoughts ARE human history. In other words, negative historical events are about to be collectively perceived/experienced. The reversal in collective mood reflected in financial markets develops BEFORE the negative history occurs. I've seen this happen too many times to dismiss the observations as coincidental. There is great importance to this phenomenon. It is proof positive of the metaphysical conclusions being drawn from observations in quantum physics.
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Hiding Bear
Inactive
At this late hour, stock index futures are going up fast because of news that Abu Dhabi wants to make major investment in Citigroup. As I mentioned recently, banks will have to sell lots of new stock to get out of this credit crunch (if they can at all), so this is big first step. However the Fed/ECB will still go ahead with their planned additions to liquidity.
Those additions are inflationary and actually help those companies that benefit from inflation. So in other words, I don't see an event horizon with a crash looming just yet. Some thing more terrible has to happen to push the market lower.
Those additions are inflationary and actually help those companies that benefit from inflation. So in other words, I don't see an event horizon with a crash looming just yet. Some thing more terrible has to happen to push the market lower.
Ben Sunday
Deceased
SoT,
I agree with Chumbucket's comments in this thread. There is no doubt that you are very advanced intellectually, thoughtful, with the implied notion that you read the undercurrents of humanity with the same proficiency that you handle the regular news with.
However...
Quoting SoT: "It is proof positive of the metaphysical conclusions being drawn from observations in quantum physics."
If that statement is an accurate reflection of your thoughts and sentiments, it suggests something has been lost in the translation. You would have been laughed out of a number of classes where I went to college...possibly countless others as well.
Couple that train of thought with your ironclad adherence to that well known, monomorphic economic model you favor so strongly, and it becomes easy to see why you are so far off base so many times.
Totally devoid of malice, it is my opinion that your ALERT-CRASH-WAR post, even as modified, is simply over the top, and not in sync with critical mass reality.
I simply do not believe in the theoretical impact of metaphysics on economics.
I agree with Chumbucket's comments in this thread. There is no doubt that you are very advanced intellectually, thoughtful, with the implied notion that you read the undercurrents of humanity with the same proficiency that you handle the regular news with.
However...
Quoting SoT: "It is proof positive of the metaphysical conclusions being drawn from observations in quantum physics."
If that statement is an accurate reflection of your thoughts and sentiments, it suggests something has been lost in the translation. You would have been laughed out of a number of classes where I went to college...possibly countless others as well.
Couple that train of thought with your ironclad adherence to that well known, monomorphic economic model you favor so strongly, and it becomes easy to see why you are so far off base so many times.
Totally devoid of malice, it is my opinion that your ALERT-CRASH-WAR post, even as modified, is simply over the top, and not in sync with critical mass reality.
I simply do not believe in the theoretical impact of metaphysics on economics.
workerbee
* Winter is Coming *
http://video.google.com/googleplayer...76378512684342
Proof positive there is something for everyone (and I mean EVERYONE) on the www.
Proof positive there is something for everyone (and I mean EVERYONE) on the www.
I think I got something completely different from that movie... I think it was basically a "beginners guide" to quantum mechanics/physics in that certain properties ("laws") that we hold to be true are only true under observation.
I think there is another movie that fits what I understand to be your motives and beliefs... "Pi" (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0138704/) Have you seen it? It's mostly about numbers and patterns, but alludes to a "collective consciousness" that, once determined (fit into a pattern) can predict certain things (including the stock market.)
So, correct me if I'm wrong...but if you've seen "Pi," does that sort of fit into your view? (I'm not quite sure of your angle on things...I'm pretty much open to everything, until I have enough info to take my own side.)
momof23goats
Deceased
well, KI wil lbe surprised, if we are noit in war, by the first of the year, and might be before that.
from Market Ticker...lots of gay sex coming up...so says Denninger.
Monday, November 26, 2007
Muddy Monday - Airmoving Device Now At Full RPM!
Mud, as in the smelly, dark, foul brown kind that is injected into a high-speed airmoving device.
The internals today absolutely blew bananas. There's simply no other description for it.
Market action wasn't any better.
Friday? All retail idiots. If you bought into that - or worse, if you were the FOOL who bought the 2,000 S&P Minis last night on Globex I hope you like gay sexual acts, because you got it, and we're not talking about a spanking.
In that, that might have been a horse..... or a bear.
There is nothing to like in the market action, and to those who think we're headed for hyperinflation in the future, the credit market says otherwise - it is screaming loud and clear "SOLD TO YOU!"
Ditto for those of you who are long metals thinking that is going to "work". Beware. In a deflationary scenario you do not want to be in metals. Far from it. Yes, they've had a nice run, but you better be right about the inflationary tendencies. Were I in metals here I would take my profits and run.
NOW.
I am also getting very wary about being short dollars here. This has been "working" but it is, without question, the most one-sided trade I've seen in my years in the markets. If and when that reverses you're going to get destroyed.
Being long other currencies, or, for that matter, playing any part of the "hyper inflationary" game, requires that you believe that other nations will be ok even as we get destroyed.
That's a losing bet guys and gals.
Look at what is happening to Airbus. Now extrapolate that to any European nation that relies on exports to us. Then consider what happens when our consumption and Europe's both go in the toilet (we go first, and as soon as we clear the bowl they're right behind us) if you're over in the Far East thinking about "what's next".....
Oh yeah, and the Chinese appear to be intending to put the heat on Japan and play with Ms. Watchamacallit and her Carry Trading too. I bet she is learning all about gay male sex as well these last few weeks.
This is likely to continue.
The Fed will pump money like nobody's business? Uh, I doubt it. They've said they're going to be paying attention to headline inflation. Oh, and you have been watching those price ramps on import prices - especially from China - yes?
Rate cuts eh?
Hmmmm...... or is the truth more like "following monetary velocity as it spirals into the dirt"?
One helps the economy, the other, well.....
If you haven't read the Ticker about The Fed, Fed Funds, and how it really works, go do it now. Get educated, because understanding reality is going to be critical in the next few weeks and months.
Being wrong on critical gating issues is going to get you killed.
Today Chuck Schumer (D-NY) went after the record FHLB loans to CountrySlide (CFC). Those who have read the ticker for a while know that I am generally no fan of Democrats - but credit where credit is due must be given, and this is one of those times.
MR. SCHUMER, THANK YOU FOR LISTENING - AND ACTING.
Ok, now onto something far more serious - the possibility that we are literally weeks or a handful of months away from an utter implosion in the equity markets.
I believe we are very, very close to the precipice - and that nothing Bernanke or Paulson can do now will change the outcome. The opportunity to address this and stop it expired a few years ago, with the cumulative damage growing the longer regulators fail to act.
Treasury and The Fed are now caught between choosing only the orifice in which the US Economy is about to suffer a gang rape - it is no longer possible to prevent the assault itself.
The correct move is to force immediate marking to market on all "Level 3" assets, with full disclosure and recall onto the balance sheets. Those who fail, fail. Consolidate them into those who are left. Yes, this will cause an immediate - and huge - selloff in the equity markets.
THE ALTERNATIVE IS WORSE as even "good" institutions will get dragged into the toilet IF BERNANKE AND PAULSON DO NOT ACT NOW!
I want to talk a bit about the "why" and "when" on this.
Remember, the original estimates were for $50-100 billion of losses due to "subprime."
The problem is that we've already seen nearly $100 billion worth of losses (including $39 billion at GM alone!) and yet the ALT-A mess hasn't even begun to be realized. Nor have the worthless HELOCs and Seconds - all of which have a net present value of zero in a declining housing market should the homeowner decide not to pay (or be unable to pay!)
Remember that back when the S&L crisis got going the original estimates were in the low tens of billions - the ultimate bill was $150 billion, when it was all added up.
This is going to be worse.
Perhaps ten times worse.
The leverage in these deals insures it.
We are likely to see a real, no-bullshit trillion dollars of losses - real losses - in the United States alone. That's 7% of GDP. Overseas investors and institutions will take a trillion of their own up the chute in addition. Then there will be the collateral damage from OTC derivatives which can't be paid.
Supposedly "money good" institutions will get sucked into the hole by this. GM, for example, is a car company with a huge exposure, and they just ate $39 billion. How much more is there? I have no idea, but I bet its not zero. In fact, I'll bet my entire account balance its not zero.
This gets very ugly as credit contracts - yes, interest rates fall (a lot) but it doesn't matter as there's no velocity of money (credit) and shortly after consumer spending goes in the toilet businesses follow.
Not because they want to - but because they have no choice.
What sets off the spiral?
Likely a major financial institution - like Countrywide - formally violating a reserve requirement and being seized. Will it be them? I have no idea - but that this is likely to be the trigger event is pretty much assured. Indeed, it could even be an overseas organization that goes up in smoke first.
Timing?
I am now looking for this event any time from literally tomorrow through some time in the first quarter of 2008. I could be early, in which case we're still talking about '08, but perhaps into the second or third quarter.
How bad do I think it is going to get?
1070 on the SPX - minimum.
The potential exists for multiple circuit-breaker trips on the major indices when it cracks.
There is the possibility that the 2003 lows in the Dow and SPX could be taken out.
I do not rate this probability as high at the present time, but the possibility of this happening is now on the table, where as recently as a couple of weeks ago it was NOT.
You will not be able to effectively short into the hole - if you're not prepared to take REAL losses if you're wrong on timing and/or the outcome - perhaps very heavy losses - get the hell out and sit on the sidelines, watching the pretty fireworks from a safe distance.
In my viewpoint for 90% or more of the traders out there, you really ought NOT to try to play this, except perhaps for some lottery tickets (e.g. way OTM PUTs) on which you are willing to take a 100% loss.
Return OF capital is way more important than return ON capital.
The market is likely to be insanely volatile with extreme whipsaws during the upcoming next few months, and unless you are prepared to be very nimble and trade this aggressively, you can easily be right and still lose your ass if you're unable to hold positions due to getting in margin trouble, or if you get the timing wrong and are in options.
To put this in perspective - this will not be a quick plunge and recovery like '87. It has the potential to be more like what happened in Britain during the 70s, or worse, like what happened to us in '29.
You've been warned.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
Monday, November 26, 2007
Muddy Monday - Airmoving Device Now At Full RPM!
Mud, as in the smelly, dark, foul brown kind that is injected into a high-speed airmoving device.
The internals today absolutely blew bananas. There's simply no other description for it.
Market action wasn't any better.
Friday? All retail idiots. If you bought into that - or worse, if you were the FOOL who bought the 2,000 S&P Minis last night on Globex I hope you like gay sexual acts, because you got it, and we're not talking about a spanking.
In that, that might have been a horse..... or a bear.
There is nothing to like in the market action, and to those who think we're headed for hyperinflation in the future, the credit market says otherwise - it is screaming loud and clear "SOLD TO YOU!"
Ditto for those of you who are long metals thinking that is going to "work". Beware. In a deflationary scenario you do not want to be in metals. Far from it. Yes, they've had a nice run, but you better be right about the inflationary tendencies. Were I in metals here I would take my profits and run.
NOW.
I am also getting very wary about being short dollars here. This has been "working" but it is, without question, the most one-sided trade I've seen in my years in the markets. If and when that reverses you're going to get destroyed.
Being long other currencies, or, for that matter, playing any part of the "hyper inflationary" game, requires that you believe that other nations will be ok even as we get destroyed.
That's a losing bet guys and gals.
Look at what is happening to Airbus. Now extrapolate that to any European nation that relies on exports to us. Then consider what happens when our consumption and Europe's both go in the toilet (we go first, and as soon as we clear the bowl they're right behind us) if you're over in the Far East thinking about "what's next".....
Oh yeah, and the Chinese appear to be intending to put the heat on Japan and play with Ms. Watchamacallit and her Carry Trading too. I bet she is learning all about gay male sex as well these last few weeks.
This is likely to continue.
The Fed will pump money like nobody's business? Uh, I doubt it. They've said they're going to be paying attention to headline inflation. Oh, and you have been watching those price ramps on import prices - especially from China - yes?
Rate cuts eh?
Hmmmm...... or is the truth more like "following monetary velocity as it spirals into the dirt"?
One helps the economy, the other, well.....
If you haven't read the Ticker about The Fed, Fed Funds, and how it really works, go do it now. Get educated, because understanding reality is going to be critical in the next few weeks and months.
Being wrong on critical gating issues is going to get you killed.
Today Chuck Schumer (D-NY) went after the record FHLB loans to CountrySlide (CFC). Those who have read the ticker for a while know that I am generally no fan of Democrats - but credit where credit is due must be given, and this is one of those times.
MR. SCHUMER, THANK YOU FOR LISTENING - AND ACTING.
Ok, now onto something far more serious - the possibility that we are literally weeks or a handful of months away from an utter implosion in the equity markets.
I believe we are very, very close to the precipice - and that nothing Bernanke or Paulson can do now will change the outcome. The opportunity to address this and stop it expired a few years ago, with the cumulative damage growing the longer regulators fail to act.
Treasury and The Fed are now caught between choosing only the orifice in which the US Economy is about to suffer a gang rape - it is no longer possible to prevent the assault itself.
The correct move is to force immediate marking to market on all "Level 3" assets, with full disclosure and recall onto the balance sheets. Those who fail, fail. Consolidate them into those who are left. Yes, this will cause an immediate - and huge - selloff in the equity markets.
THE ALTERNATIVE IS WORSE as even "good" institutions will get dragged into the toilet IF BERNANKE AND PAULSON DO NOT ACT NOW!
I want to talk a bit about the "why" and "when" on this.
Remember, the original estimates were for $50-100 billion of losses due to "subprime."
The problem is that we've already seen nearly $100 billion worth of losses (including $39 billion at GM alone!) and yet the ALT-A mess hasn't even begun to be realized. Nor have the worthless HELOCs and Seconds - all of which have a net present value of zero in a declining housing market should the homeowner decide not to pay (or be unable to pay!)
Remember that back when the S&L crisis got going the original estimates were in the low tens of billions - the ultimate bill was $150 billion, when it was all added up.
This is going to be worse.
Perhaps ten times worse.
The leverage in these deals insures it.
We are likely to see a real, no-bullshit trillion dollars of losses - real losses - in the United States alone. That's 7% of GDP. Overseas investors and institutions will take a trillion of their own up the chute in addition. Then there will be the collateral damage from OTC derivatives which can't be paid.
Supposedly "money good" institutions will get sucked into the hole by this. GM, for example, is a car company with a huge exposure, and they just ate $39 billion. How much more is there? I have no idea, but I bet its not zero. In fact, I'll bet my entire account balance its not zero.
This gets very ugly as credit contracts - yes, interest rates fall (a lot) but it doesn't matter as there's no velocity of money (credit) and shortly after consumer spending goes in the toilet businesses follow.
Not because they want to - but because they have no choice.
What sets off the spiral?
Likely a major financial institution - like Countrywide - formally violating a reserve requirement and being seized. Will it be them? I have no idea - but that this is likely to be the trigger event is pretty much assured. Indeed, it could even be an overseas organization that goes up in smoke first.
Timing?
I am now looking for this event any time from literally tomorrow through some time in the first quarter of 2008. I could be early, in which case we're still talking about '08, but perhaps into the second or third quarter.
How bad do I think it is going to get?
1070 on the SPX - minimum.
The potential exists for multiple circuit-breaker trips on the major indices when it cracks.
There is the possibility that the 2003 lows in the Dow and SPX could be taken out.
I do not rate this probability as high at the present time, but the possibility of this happening is now on the table, where as recently as a couple of weeks ago it was NOT.
You will not be able to effectively short into the hole - if you're not prepared to take REAL losses if you're wrong on timing and/or the outcome - perhaps very heavy losses - get the hell out and sit on the sidelines, watching the pretty fireworks from a safe distance.
In my viewpoint for 90% or more of the traders out there, you really ought NOT to try to play this, except perhaps for some lottery tickets (e.g. way OTM PUTs) on which you are willing to take a 100% loss.
Return OF capital is way more important than return ON capital.
The market is likely to be insanely volatile with extreme whipsaws during the upcoming next few months, and unless you are prepared to be very nimble and trade this aggressively, you can easily be right and still lose your ass if you're unable to hold positions due to getting in margin trouble, or if you get the timing wrong and are in options.
To put this in perspective - this will not be a quick plunge and recovery like '87. It has the potential to be more like what happened in Britain during the 70s, or worse, like what happened to us in '29.
You've been warned.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
Rant on -
I am responding to this thread because of the vehemence and self-righteousness of some of the posters.
Do some even realize they have taken refuge in denigration and vituperation ? I invite your attention on the matter. Actions and attitudes speak louder than words and they are telling.
So here is something direct: If SOT's threads are such a piss off, then put him on ignore.
It is clear that some have never been exposed to the (alleged) laws of manifestation. Aspects of the universe are connected to one another, in ways not yet understood by man, and as a point of order, members of this thread. Based on results, I don't get it either, but I do get a glimpse every once in a while, and those glimpses are coming more often.
I invite you to take a look around. Draw some connections. Look past the mainstream media. Speak of improbable connections and notice if there is resonance, in the present and from the past.
Oh yes, where does mob psychology fit into it all. Not to put too fine a point on it, but if everyone expects a recession / depression, will there be one ? Would that also apply to a crash on Wall Street ? And what about the mistaken slip of a finger on a button that shouldn't have been pushed ?
End of rant.
I am responding to this thread because of the vehemence and self-righteousness of some of the posters.
Do some even realize they have taken refuge in denigration and vituperation ? I invite your attention on the matter. Actions and attitudes speak louder than words and they are telling.
So here is something direct: If SOT's threads are such a piss off, then put him on ignore.
It is clear that some have never been exposed to the (alleged) laws of manifestation. Aspects of the universe are connected to one another, in ways not yet understood by man, and as a point of order, members of this thread. Based on results, I don't get it either, but I do get a glimpse every once in a while, and those glimpses are coming more often.
I invite you to take a look around. Draw some connections. Look past the mainstream media. Speak of improbable connections and notice if there is resonance, in the present and from the past.
Oh yes, where does mob psychology fit into it all. Not to put too fine a point on it, but if everyone expects a recession / depression, will there be one ? Would that also apply to a crash on Wall Street ? And what about the mistaken slip of a finger on a button that shouldn't have been pushed ?
End of rant.
China Connection
TB Fanatic
Yep
I'll go war next month starting with Syria and something with Iran. Then an oil crisis that will cash the sharemarket. Then War in Korea. Followed by China taking Tiawain. Russia will make it's big move then also. Hard times coming that's for sure.
The big move with the share market but won't happen untill war starts with Syria and spreads.
I'll go war next month starting with Syria and something with Iran. Then an oil crisis that will cash the sharemarket. Then War in Korea. Followed by China taking Tiawain. Russia will make it's big move then also. Hard times coming that's for sure.
The big move with the share market but won't happen untill war starts with Syria and spreads.
Spirit Of Truth
Inactive
I saw that movie. It was very interesting. It's just they were off by one letter....it's "Phi" not "Pi"! More specifically, I think the key is: 1.618034^x
Spirit Of Truth
Inactive
Jeepers....even the most arrogant Dawkins is humble enough to admit he doesn't understand our "queer middle world" when it comes to the potential role of quantum mechanics!
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6308228560462155344
Elliott Wave patterns and human historical events are tantamount to QM wave-particle duality on the human level IMHO.
The most dangerous religious zealots in the modern age are those professing the "secular" science of man.
Why is that science, the "knowing", of man "secular"?
If your belief set is premised on the non-existence of an intelligent creator, then you're self-deluded from the beginning. False assumptions are the foundation of false beliefs. Modern reigning economic "science" (lol!) is one of the ultimate examples of this.
http://www.spiritoftruth.org/hypothesis.htm
http://tickervideo.org/eod-1126/eod-1126.html
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jed turtle
a brother in the Lord
gold is not going to "work"?
i am particularly intrigued with this from USDA's post:
"Ditto for those of you who are long metals thinking that is going to "work". Beware. In a deflationary scenario you do not want to be in metals. Far from it. Yes, they've had a nice run, but you better be right about the inflationary tendencies. Were I in metals here I would take my profits and run."
as i am no financial whiz, i barely understood 10% of the article he posted but that really caught my eye. it seems like EVERYONE here on tb2k for the last several years has been urging each other to get into precious metals. now this guy starts talking deflation. my assumption is that he means that when this all plays out, there is no cash left for anyone to buy PMs, thus the price on them plummets also.
so what's really going to happen? any ideas?
i am particularly intrigued with this from USDA's post:
"Ditto for those of you who are long metals thinking that is going to "work". Beware. In a deflationary scenario you do not want to be in metals. Far from it. Yes, they've had a nice run, but you better be right about the inflationary tendencies. Were I in metals here I would take my profits and run."
as i am no financial whiz, i barely understood 10% of the article he posted but that really caught my eye. it seems like EVERYONE here on tb2k for the last several years has been urging each other to get into precious metals. now this guy starts talking deflation. my assumption is that he means that when this all plays out, there is no cash left for anyone to buy PMs, thus the price on them plummets also.
so what's really going to happen? any ideas?
KD herds the deflationary camp at tickerforum. There are a lot of traders over there that run in that camp and they seem to have some sort of anal fixation. I have not subscribed to the deflationary scenario as it has been postulated since the dot com breakup. Gold has signaled a reflationary trend on the part of central banks flooding financial markets which they have done with abandon.
This may be changing however. If a strong deflationary trend takes hold, no amount of central bank money printing will encourage borrowers to borrow. The Fed can print money to recapitalized banks and other lenders but that doesn't mean their customers will take out loans. In this scenario, the velocity of money, the rate that money changes hands, slows down. Economic activity slows, GDP goes negative and unemployment rises.
This will create uncertainty for the gold market. Industrial commodities will fall as business activity declines. The folks that consider gold just another industrial metal will sell gold like they sell copper and aluminum. One possibility, which was the case during the Depression, is that massive bank failures and debased money will cause gold to reassert itself as a monetary store of value. In the Depression, gold was a safe haven while banks and bonds failed.
So it comes down to market psychology as it always does. In that vein, SOT has made some points with me as I track market psychology in my trading so I can see his viewpoint. He has been flogging this issue since before the rollover at Freepers so he gets the award for persistence.
While I have steadfastly traded the inflation scenario since 2001 with great success, I have always listened to the opposite side of the trade. With trading, you always have to be prepared to accept that you might be wrong.
notred
Inactive
The sky is falling posts have a long history on TB2K. And they have mostly all, all tens of thousands of them, been off on the date setting aspect of the predictions.
In the last 6 months or so, the mood on this board has changed on average to be less tolerant of this date setting, light yourself on fire and scream WERE GOING IN NOW! kind of nonsense. This is an over generalizaton, but by and large the old timers here roll their eyes at this and the newbies lap it up. Some of the oldsters who look forward to the daily crash talk have moved on to other boards. Some of the newbies who want to start their day with "were all gonna die today" threads seem to get really torqued when someone calls bs.
There are other boards that are very tollerant to the daily WERE ALL GONNA CRASH AND DIE mantra. Some even go as far as to totally make something up for the day if there is no news to get the doomer blood pumping.
IMO the board and its readers are healthier if they take world events seriously and studiously without all the hair on fire of the weekly and sometimes daily CRASH! CRASH! CRASH! "warnings."
If these kinds of posts are not given a big dose of scepticism back, then we need to label every page on TB2K with a big FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.
In the last 6 months or so, the mood on this board has changed on average to be less tolerant of this date setting, light yourself on fire and scream WERE GOING IN NOW! kind of nonsense. This is an over generalizaton, but by and large the old timers here roll their eyes at this and the newbies lap it up. Some of the oldsters who look forward to the daily crash talk have moved on to other boards. Some of the newbies who want to start their day with "were all gonna die today" threads seem to get really torqued when someone calls bs.
There are other boards that are very tollerant to the daily WERE ALL GONNA CRASH AND DIE mantra. Some even go as far as to totally make something up for the day if there is no news to get the doomer blood pumping.
IMO the board and its readers are healthier if they take world events seriously and studiously without all the hair on fire of the weekly and sometimes daily CRASH! CRASH! CRASH! "warnings."
If these kinds of posts are not given a big dose of scepticism back, then we need to label every page on TB2K with a big FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.
Hiding Bear
Inactive
The ECB added 9 billion euros ($14.5 billion) and the Fed $4.5 billion in new money today (that’s the net amount of new repos – not total repos). Obviously they are quite worried about ongoing housing credit problems.
While technically the collapse of mortgage market has strong negative effects that are economically deflationary, the Fed and other world banks are pursuing an inflationary policy to offset that. Usually inflation has always won out – including the often overlooked 75% devaluation of the dollar in the bottom of the 1930s recession. That devaluation caused a quick rise in all commodity prices by about the same amount (75%).
This older thread has a great discussion of the issues of inflation and deflation.
Why Gold will be over $400 by the end of September (from 2002)
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=76429
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Spirit Of Truth
Inactive
Guess you aren't aware of what's been going on in the financial industry as of late.
The issue is whether the panic in the financial world is foreshadowing a public panic over an event(s) seemingly exogenous to the financial system, e.g., Mideast War, WMD terrorism, etc.
Nevertheless....looks like for now traders are struggling hard to put in a short-term bottom at yesterday's close.
I'll second that.
Also for all the people here "worrying" that Everybody will go of the deep end because of a post on a website I say this.
If you are the kind of person who does not do his own leg work and use places like this to get pointers and lead. If you base major life altering desisions based on
just a few random posts well my friend nothing will save you.
I love reading from the "Doomer mindset"
I wouldn't be here otherwise!!!
Also for all the people here "worrying" that Everybody will go of the deep end because of a post on a website I say this.If you are the kind of person who does not do his own leg work and use places like this to get pointers and lead. If you base major life altering desisions based on
just a few random posts well my friend nothing will save you.
I love reading from the "Doomer mindset"
I wouldn't be here otherwise!!!
HeliumAvid
Too Tired to ReTire
I must say I do find it strange that you start a thread predicting war and economic doom with a smiley face. You have a strange sense of humor.
HeliumAvid
HeliumAvid
Spirit Of Truth
Inactive
I didn't do that. It had been under "alert"....maybe an admin had a problem with that. I just switched it to ECON.
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China Connection
TB Fanatic
Yep
Well those behind the Federal Reserve control the money supply so they control the Share Market crash timing.
Elliott wave is a unique form of market analysis, developed by R. N. Elliott in the 1930s. But his system doesn't take into account the Fed so the system is good but things can and are held off from happening by the Fed
Well those behind the Federal Reserve control the money supply so they control the Share Market crash timing.
Elliott wave is a unique form of market analysis, developed by R. N. Elliott in the 1930s. But his system doesn't take into account the Fed so the system is good but things can and are held off from happening by the Fed
Spirit Of Truth
Inactive
It’s Do or Die Time for the Bull Market
It’s Do or Die Time for the Bull Market
By Rick Pendergraft
November 26, 2007
The five-year-old bull market is at a critical point. Several factors lead to this conclusion.
The first factor is the 20-month moving average on the S&P 500 (SPX). Many investors use this trendline as the line in the sand between a bull market and a bear market. The SPX is less than one percent from it as I write this on Thanksgiving.
The SPX has not closed a month below the 20-month since June 2003, when the index was bouncing back from the bear market years.
Two other dates to note on the chart are November 2000 and August 1998. November 2000 marked the first monthly close below the 20-month moving average in the bear market. The S&P lost another 38 percent before hitting bottom.
In August 1998, the SPX closed just above the 20-month before rallying and jumping another 62 percent to the high in March 2000. This period is very similar to what we are seeing now. The Russian debt crisis played a similar role to what the sub-prime market is playing now.
The second factor is the trendline in the chart above. This trendline connects the lows from March 2003, June 2006, and August. Having this trendline hold is crucial.
The third factor is the so-called Santa Claus rally. December is typically a strong month for the stock market and it needs to be this year … or this market is in trouble.
The sentiment indicators are looking better. I keep talking about the 21-day moving average on the CBOE equity put/call ratio. And I keep talking about the bullish percentage on the Investors Intelligence report.
The 21-day moving average on the CBOE equity put/call ratio has jumped back above 0.70, which means option traders are becoming more bearish. This is encouraging.
On the Investors Intelligence report, the bullish percentage has declined sharply over the past five weeks from 62 percent to 47.9 percent. The fact that the bullish percentage is back below 50 percent is good news for contrarians.
My conclusion is that investors should be increasing their exposure to stocks right now. I don’t think you should dive head first, because we are at a crucial point. But I do think this is a great buying opportunity.
It’s Do or Die Time for the Bull Market
By Rick Pendergraft
November 26, 2007
The five-year-old bull market is at a critical point. Several factors lead to this conclusion.
The first factor is the 20-month moving average on the S&P 500 (SPX). Many investors use this trendline as the line in the sand between a bull market and a bear market. The SPX is less than one percent from it as I write this on Thanksgiving.
The SPX has not closed a month below the 20-month since June 2003, when the index was bouncing back from the bear market years.
Two other dates to note on the chart are November 2000 and August 1998. November 2000 marked the first monthly close below the 20-month moving average in the bear market. The S&P lost another 38 percent before hitting bottom.
In August 1998, the SPX closed just above the 20-month before rallying and jumping another 62 percent to the high in March 2000. This period is very similar to what we are seeing now. The Russian debt crisis played a similar role to what the sub-prime market is playing now.
The second factor is the trendline in the chart above. This trendline connects the lows from March 2003, June 2006, and August. Having this trendline hold is crucial.
The third factor is the so-called Santa Claus rally. December is typically a strong month for the stock market and it needs to be this year … or this market is in trouble.
The sentiment indicators are looking better. I keep talking about the 21-day moving average on the CBOE equity put/call ratio. And I keep talking about the bullish percentage on the Investors Intelligence report.
The 21-day moving average on the CBOE equity put/call ratio has jumped back above 0.70, which means option traders are becoming more bearish. This is encouraging.
On the Investors Intelligence report, the bullish percentage has declined sharply over the past five weeks from 62 percent to 47.9 percent. The fact that the bullish percentage is back below 50 percent is good news for contrarians.
My conclusion is that investors should be increasing their exposure to stocks right now. I don’t think you should dive head first, because we are at a crucial point. But I do think this is a great buying opportunity.
Chumbucket
Inactive
That sounds pretty optimistic, like we are at or near the bottom. How does that support your doomsday theory?
Spirit Of Truth
Inactive
A Santa Claus rally in the near-term is distinctly possible. If the SPX breaks above 1433 in the coming days, one is highly likely:
http://tickervideo.org/eod-1127/eod-1127.html
However, I think a break below Monday's low is more likely at this point in which case a meltdown could occur in the short-term as I'm warning about:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
A temporary reprieve would be nice as I'd like to enjoy a quiet final holiday season with family and friends before the apocalypse unfolds.
kytom
escapee from reality
did you see the markets today? pretty bad crash. i like your posts. we all know its gonna happen. we are all on edge waiting for tsthtf. please keep up your posts just watch the chicken little cry wolf thing.
Spirit Of Truth
Inactive
My crash alerts should be deemed nearly 100% reliable buy signals.
This is a little game God and I play.
He wins as usual!
Up, up and away....long live man's manic delusions! Reality must be denied at all costs!!!
Skyraider
Veteran Member
They are crashing. People just don't want to admit it. The volitility is outrageous. Just think of the final off balance steps of a drunken fool right before he falls on his face and snaps off his front teeth. All the way home he kept telling everyone, "Oh, I'm alright, I'm alright."
Yeah, right.........
Skyraider
Yeah, right.........
Skyraider
“But” can be a conjunction, preposition, adverb, noun or verb. In the context, that Zoose was using the word it is a preposition as it was a comparison.
Spirit Of Truth
Inactive
Financials crashed....but the major averages fell 10% from the all-time high marks reached in early-October. That doesn't even discount a slowing of the economy.
This is, of course, totally insane given that the global banking system is imploding under a mountain of ill-fated structured debt packages and hundreds of trillions of dollars in fragile derivatives. A recession is almost certain and a depression is likely in the months ahead. But I guess that doesn't matter much when Wall Street year-end bonuses are on the line!
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